8/9/2019 AUG-09 Mizuho Weekly Technical Commentary GBP USD GBP EUR

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The information contained in this paper is based on or derived from information generally available to the public from sources believed to be reliable. No representation orwarranty is made or implied that it is accurate or complete. Any opinions expressed in this paper are subject to change without notice. This paper has been preparedsolely for information purposes and if so decided, for private circulation and does not constitute any solicitation to buy or sell any instrument, or to engage in any tradingstrategy.

Charts provided by Reuters.

Mizuho Corporate Bank

Weekly Technical Commentary 09 August 2010

Links:http://www.mizuho-sc.com/ Bloomberg Page:MIZH Website:http://www.mizuho-cb.co.uk/

GBP/USD Chart Levels: Support 1.5800..1.5700..1.5565..1.5400. Resistance 1.6000..1.6225..1.6300..1.6500.

This week This monthGBP=D3, Last Quote [Candle], Last Quote [Ichimoku 9, 26, 52, 26] Weekly 01Aug09 - 15Feb11

Sep09 Oct Nov Dec Jan10 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan11 Feb

Pr

1.42

1.44

1.46

1.48

1.5

1.52

1.54

1.56

1.58

1.6

1.62

1.64

1.66

1.68

1.7

38.2

50.0

61.8

GBP=D3 , Last Quote, Candle

15Aug10 1.5975 1.5998 1.5931 1.5944

GBP=D3 , Last Quote, Tenkan Sen 9

15Aug10 1.5272

GBP=D3 , Last Quote, Kijun Sen 26

15Aug10 1.5114

GBP=D3 , Last Quote, Senkou Span(a) 52

06Feb11 1.5193

GBP=D3 , Last Quote, Senkou Span(b) 52

06Feb11 1.5554

GBP=D3 , Last Quote, Chikou Span 26

21Feb10 1.5944

A sterling performance as Cable retraces all ofthe loses since early February, over 61% of thedecline since November 2008, testing the top ofa very large weekly Ichimoku cloud and thepsychological level at 1.6000. Nine and twenty-six week moving averages have crossed to along position which should help push this pair up

to our next upside target at 1.6500 seeing asbullish momentum is stronger than it has beenin a year. Cable is overbought though, yet one-month at-the-money implied volatility is onlyfractionally higher than its long term mean at8.80%. More short-covering is likely to emergesoon. Note that important long term resistancelies between 1.6800 and 1.7000 and only abovehere will serious fretting start.

EUR/GBP Chart Levels: Support0.8250..0.8180..0.8100..0.8065 . Resistance0.8415..0.8465..0.8535..0.8600.

This week This monthEURGBP=D3, Last Quote [Candle], Last Quote [Ichimoku 9, 26, 52, 26] Weekly 30Nov08 - 30Jan11

Dec08 Jan09 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan10 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan11

Pr

0.8

0.81

0.82

0.83

0.84

0.85

0.86

0.87

0.88

0.89

0.9

0.91

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.95

0.96

0.97

0.98

'spike high'

EURGBP=D3, Last Quote, Candle

01Aug10 0.83630 0.83810 0.83245 0.83275

EURGBP=D3, Last Quote, Tenkan Sen 9

01Aug10 0.83000

EURGBP=D3, Last Quote, Kijun Sen 26

01Aug10 0.86085

EURGBP=D3, Last Quote, Senkou Span(a) 52

23Jan11 0.84543

EURGBP=D3, Last Quote, Senkou Span(b) 52

23Jan11 0.87400

EURGBP=D3, Last Quote, Chikou Span26

07Feb10 0.83275

Consolidating in neat little ranges at some of thelowest levels since Lehmans collapse in 2008.Prices remain in the narrow channel with Julyssmall spike high at 0.8532 possibly marking anew interim high point. Weekly movingaverages still point to a short position so overthe next week and maybe the coming month wefavour consolidation between 0.8067, this yearslow, and 0.8500. Then the gentle downtrendought to resume taking the Euro down to0.8000 and probably 0.7800 some time in theautumn. Note the lower edge of the weekly

cloud starts dropping mid-October so hopefullyby the sterling will start holding clearly belowthe pivotal 0.8400 area. A weekly close above0.8700 would be very worrying.

Produced by London Branch - Nicole Elliott +44-20-7786-2509 (email: Nicole.Elliott@mhcb.co.uk)

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