attack on dayr az zawr airbase - allsource analysis · 2018. 6. 1. · discovery overview analysis...

DISCOVERY

Copyright © AllSource Analysis Inc. 2017

Attack on Dayr az Zawr Airbase

Dayr az Zawr, Syria

November 27, 2017

DISCOVERY

Overview

Analysis of GEOINT reveals the probable destruction of four L-39 aircraft at Syria’s Dayr az ZawrAirbase. This analysis supports ISIS claims of a successful, large-scale suicide attack. AllSource Analysis expects security to be enhanced at the Dayr az Zawr Airbase in response to this attack.

Background

Dayr az Zawr Airbase is located on the Euphrates river in Syria’s oil rich east and at the edge of the Russian/Iranian-backed Regime’s zone of control, the US-backed Syrian Defense Forces’ (SDF) zone of control, and the remnants of ISIS’ territory in Syria. The base was under continuous siege by Rebels and then ISIS from July 2014 to September 2017, making it symbolically important to the Syrian Regime and an attractive target for ISIS guerilla-style counterattacks.

Dayr az Zawr Airbase’s location at the forward edge of Regime control makes it an important military location for future operations against the SDF. Traditionally, the facility has MiG-21 Fishbed and Su-22 Fitter aircraft. However, many of these aircraft have probably been grounded, perhaps because regular maintenance could not be performed under siege. This may have resulted in the need to forward deploy L-39 aircraft to support operations.

AllSource Analysis has used access to historical imagery archives via Planet and DigitalGlobe to provide additional GEOINT-based context to this imagery analysis report. These historical images have not been included in this report.

Location:

Dayr az Zawr, Syria

Coordinates:

35.2856, 40.1756

Date of Report:

November 27, 2017

Date of Imagery:

November 18, 2017

November 16, 2017

November 14, 2017

November 13, 2017

November 11, 2017

October 27, 2017

February 28, 2017

January 28, 2017

Attack on Dayr az Zawr


Dayr az Zawr

Iraq

Turkey

SyriaSyria

DISCOVERY

Analysis

An overview of satellite imagery from November 18, 2018 reveals the success of a November 13th ISIS infiltration-suicide attack on Dayr az Zawr

Airbase. The attack resulted in the probable destruction of four Syrian Air Force (SAF) L-39 jet ground attack aircraft that reportedly were deployed

only the month before (Figure 3 & Figure 4).

Analysis of GEOINT reveals that the infiltrators were able to travel approximately 600 meters through checkpoints, security fences, and defensive

fighting positions to reach L-39 aircraft on the main operational apron (Figure 2 and Figure 3). Furthermore, the attackers traveled an additional

890m to the southeast apron to attack additional targets (Figure 5). The attackers reportedly used a vehicle-born improvised explosive device

(VBIED) and a suicide belt/vest in their assault. The depth of the infiltration indicates that the attackers were well disciplined and not looking for the

first targets of opportunity. However, despite the success in targeting operational aircraft, the attackers did not strike or damage high-value sub-

targets such as probable ammunition storage bunkers, a possible vehicle fuel station, or probable barracks (Figure 1). However, according to

analysis of GEOINT, these sub-targets are more centrally located in the base and the attackers may have been discovered before reaching

additional targets or the size of the attack did not permit additional objectives.

The depth of infiltration and scale of the attacks probably indicates poor security training and procedure for base personnel. Despite the destruction

of the four L-39s and unlikely immediate improvement in base security, GEOINT analysis reveals that the destroyed aircraft were pushed off the

aprons, with at least 6 additional L-39 aircraft stationed at the southeast apron (Figure 4, Figure 5). AllSource Analysis observed one Mi-8/17 that

historical analysis suggests has been non-operational for about the past year.

Analysis of GEOINT from around the airbase reveals that the MiG-21 Fishbed squadrons traditionally based at Dayr az Zawr have been reduced in

number and are probably not operational based on their probable open storage within the base (Figure 6, Figure 7, Figure 8). AllSource Analysis has

observed MiG-21s adjacent to the airbase’s probable maintenance, recovery, and overhaul area over a long period, suggesting the base no longer

conducts regular maintenance of aircraft. Additionally, analysis of GEOINT suggests that Su-22 Fitters observed near a reinforced hanger at the

northeast corner of the runway have probably been abandoned (Figure 8).

Conclusion

AllSource Analysis believes that the probable destruction of four L-39 jet ground attack aircraft has most likely hampered the Syrian regime’s ability to support ground operations in the short-term. This assertion is supported by local reports that Syrian regime forces did not advance in the several days following the attack. Over the long term, AllSource Analysis expects that physical security around the Dayr az Zawr airfield to be enhanced, better manned, and better trained to prevent future similar attacks.



DISCOVERY

Sources

“Breaking | Mysterious Explosion Rocks SAA Held Deir Ezzor Airbase,” Muraselon. November 13, 2017. https://muraselon.com/en/2017/11/breaking-mysterious-explosion-rocks-saa-held-deir-ezzor-airbase/

Illingworth, Andew. “Breaking: Deir Ezzor airbase hit hard by ISIS bomb attack,” Al Masdar News. November 13, 2017. https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-deir-ezzor-airbase-hit-hard-isis-bomb-attack/

“More Details Appear About ISIS Suicide Attack On Deir Ezzor Airport,” South Front. November 18, 2017. https://southfront.org/more-details-appear-about-isis-suicide-attack-on-deir-ezzor-airport/

Obretix. Twitter Post. November 11, 2017 (4:36 AM). https://twitter.com/obretix/status/929326867093614592

“Syrian Arab Air Force,” Scramble. November 20, 2017. http://www.scramble.nl/orbats/syria/airforce

Torrel, Alex. “Syrian War Daily – 14th of November 2017,” Syrian War Daily. November, 14, 2017. https://syrianwardaily.wordpress.com/2017/11/14/syrian-war-daily-14th-of-november-2017/

WaelHussaini. Twitter Post. November 13, 2017 (6:27 AM). https://twitter.com/WaelHussaini/status/930079685916143616



https://muraselon.com/en/2017/11/breaking-mysterious-explosion-rocks-saa-held-deir-ezzor-airbase/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-deir-ezzor-airbase-hit-hard-isis-bomb-attack/

https://southfront.org/more-details-appear-about-isis-suicide-attack-on-deir-ezzor-airport/

https://twitter.com/obretix/status/929326867093614592

http://www.scramble.nl/orbats/syria/airforce

https://syrianwardaily.wordpress.com/2017/11/14/syrian-war-daily-14th-of-november-2017/

https://twitter.com/WaelHussaini/status/930079685916143616

DISCOVERY

Figure 1. Dayr az Zawr Airbase Overview, November 18, 2017.



Probable ammunition

storage bunkers

Probable underground storage bunkers

Maintenance facility

Possible vehicle fuel station

Probable barracks

Main operational apron

Southeast apron

DISCOVERY

Figure 2. Airbase Entrance, November 18, 2017.



Primary entrance checkpoint

Possible secondary

checkpoint and

security building

Trench works and forward fighting positions

DISCOVERY

Figure 3. Primary Apron, November 18, 2017.

Probable destroyed L-39



Mi-8/17 Helicopter

203m


Possible secondary

checkpoint and

security building

DISCOVERY

Figure 4. Primary Apron Detail, November 18, 2017.



Probable destroyed L-39s pushed off apron

Security fence

DISCOVERY

Figure 5. Southeast Apron L-39s, November 18, 2017.




Six L-39s


DISCOVERY

Figure 6.Southeast Apron Mi-G 21 Fishbeds, November 18, 2017.



MiG-21 Fishbeds, most

likely not operational

DISCOVERY

Figure 7. Probable Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul Area, November 18, 2017.



Mig-21 Fishbeds

Probable maintenance hangar

Possible vehicle fuel station

DISCOVERY

Figure 8. Northeast Apron, November 18, 2017.



Mig-21s, most likely not operational

Reinforced hangar

Su-22 Fitters, most

likely not operational

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DISCOVERY

All satellite imagery in this document Copyright © 2017 Airbus

DR-20171127-SY-ACopyright © AllSource Analysis Inc. 2017

attack on dayr az zawr airbase - allsource analysis · 2018. 6. 1. · discovery overview analysis...

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