atmospheric research adaptation, vulnerability and integrated risk assessment roger n. jones asia...

Atmospheric Research

Adaptation, Vulnerability and Integrated Risk Assessment

Roger N. Jones

Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research

Symposium on Global Change Research

March 23, Canberra


Risk

Can be broadly defined as the likelihood of an adverse event or outcome

How does this relate to Article 2 of the UNFCCC?


Article 2 UNFCCC

Aims to prevent dangerous

anthropogenic climate change

by stabilising greenhouse gas emissions,

thus allowing

Ecosystems to adapt naturally

Food security to be maintained

Sustainable development to proceed

Hazard

Consequence

Management

criteria

Through adaptation and mitigationManagem

ent options


What is dangerous climate change?

This is a value judgement best assessed by policymakers, stakeholders and the community. Research can help with problem definition, plausibility and likelihood of various aspects

Global thresholds of criticality: grounded ice sheet melts, N. Hemisphere flips to cold conditions, Amazon wilts and burns in heat and drought

Local thresholds of criticality: any activity where impacts become non-viable with no reasonable substitute or the harm caused exceeds given levels of tolerance


Attaching likelihood

What is the likelihood of exceeding given levels of criticality without risk management?

What type and level of management is needed to reduce these risks?

These questions can be assessed on a range of scales


Risk management

Mitigation – reduces climate hazards

Adaptation – reduces the consequences for a given level of climate-related hazard

Adaptation may act to:

• reduce harm,

• take advantage of benefits, and

• modify ongoing change processes


Linking climate to adaptation over time

Climate system

Impacted activity

Socio-economicsystem

Current climate

Future climate

Future adaptations

Current adaptations


Measuring the ability to cope

Loss Profit

Profit

Loss

Loss

CopingRange

Vulnerable

Vulnerable Probability

Critical Threshold

Critical Threshold

CopingRange


Coping under climate change

CopingRange

Vulnerable

Vulnerable

Stationary Climate & Coping Range

Changing Climate

Planning Horizon

CopingRange

Vulnerable

Vulnerable

Adaptation

Changing Climate Stationary Climate & Coping Range

CopingRange

Vulnerable

Vulnerable

Stationary Climate & Coping Range

Changing Climate

Planning Horizon

CopingRange

Vulnerable

Vulnerable

Adaptation

Changing Climate Stationary Climate & Coping Range


Four pillars of climate risk analysis

• Most systems affected by climate variability have evolved to cope with that variability to some extent

• Climate change will mainly be felt as changes to climate variability and extremes.

• Without adaptation, damages will increase with successively higher levels of global warming

• Critical thresholds occurring at low levels of global warming and sea level rise are much more likely to be exceeded than those occurring at higher levels


Bleaching thresholds

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

28.5 29 29.5 30 30.5 31 31.5 32 32.5

Temperature (°C)

Cu

mu

lativ

e E

xpo

sure

Tim

e (

Da

ys)

Magnetic Is Davies Rf Myrmidon Rf


Simulated historical bleaching events at Magnetic Island

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1-Jul-90 1-Jul-92 1-Jul-94 1-Jul-96 1-Jul-98 1-Jul-00

Year

Da

ys B

lea

chin

gB

lea

chin

g D

eg

ree

Da

ys

Bleach days Bleach Degree Days


Mortality threshold

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

0 10 20 30

Cumulative days exposure

°C a

bove

ble

achi

ng th

resh

old

Davies

Keppels 1st estim.

Keppels 2nd estim.


Bleaching severityBleaching level

Impact Recovery

Bleaching Loss of color <1 year

+ 0.5°C Some mortality (e.g. 1998, 2002)

1-3 years

+ 1.0°C Widespread mortality (transplant experiments)

3-? years

+ 1.5°C Not experienced – but worse

Longer

+ 2.0°C Not experienced – but even worse

Longer

+ 2.5°C Not experienced – catastrophic?

Decades +


Bleaching risk as a function of warming

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Year

Wa

rmin

g (

°C)

Global warmingUpper limit of possibility50% likely to be exceeded100% likely to be exceeded

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Bleaching+2.5100%Bleaching+2.5>50%Bleaching+2.0>50%Bleaching+1.5>50%Bleaching+1.0>50%Bleaching+0.5>50%Bleaching>50%Bleaching <50%


When is the coping range of coral reef communities exceeded?

• Physical bleaching rates• Ecosystem damage• People’s livelihoods affected (e.g.

fishing, tourism)• Policy objectives• Species/ecosystem rights to exist• Are we happy with algal mats and

seaweed?


Bioclimatic thresholds exceeded as a function of warming

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0 10 20 30 40

Number of Species

War

min

g (°

C)

2030

2050

2100


Macquarie River Catchment

Burrendong Dam

Windamere Dam

Major Areas ofAbstraction

Macquarie RContributing Area

Macquarie Marshes

Area ~ 75,000 km2

P = 1000 to <400 mm.

Major dams: Burrendong and Windamere

Water demands: irrigation agriculture; Macquarie Marshes; town supply

Most flow from upper catchment runoff

Most demand in the lower catchment


Irrigation allocations and wetland inflows- historical climate and 1996 rules

10,000

100,000

1,000,000

10,000,000

1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990

Year

Flo

w (

Gl x

10)

0

20

40

60

80

100

Irrig

atio

n al

loca

tion

(%)

Allocations Marshes


Critical thresholdsMacquarie River Catchment

Irrigation5 consecutive years below 50% allocation of water right

Wetlands10 consecutive years below bird breeding events

Both thresholds are exceeded if mean streamflow decreases• by 10% under a drought-dominated climate, • by 20% under a normal climate and • by 30% under a flood-dominated climate


Risk analysis resultsMacquarie 2030

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

-40-30-20-1001020

C ha nge in sup ply (% )

Cu

mu

lati

ve

Pro

ba

bili

ty

B urrend ong M arsh es Irr igat ion

DDR Nor mal FD R


Change in risk as a function of global warming

-1000100

Change in mean annual flow (%)

Upper limit

5th Percentile50th Percentile

95th PercentileLower limit

0 50 100

Probability of threshold exceedance

Flood-dominated

Long-term mean

Drought-dominated

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Year

War

min

g (°

C)


Metrics for measuring costs

• Monetary losses (gains)• Loss of life• Change in quality of life• Species and habitat loss• Distributional equity


Estimating ‘dangerous climate change’

Assumptions

1. Atmospheric CO2 354–1500 ppm

2. Climate sensitivity 1.5–4.5°C

3. Non-CO2 forcing 0.5–3.5Wm-2

Randomly sampled at uniform distribution


Temperature at stabilisation

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0 5 10 15 20 25


Pro

babi

lity

(%)



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 5 10 15 20 25


Pro

babi

lity

of e

xcee

danc

e (%

)


Probabilities of meeting temperature targets at given levels of CO2 stabilisation

0

20

40

60

80

100

300 500 700 900 1100 1300 1500

CO2 at stabilisation

Pro

babi

lity

of m

eetin

g ta

rget

Prob <1.5Prob <2Prob <2.5Prob <3Prob <3.5Prob <4Prob <4.5Prob <5Prob <5.5Prob <6


Estimating ‘dangerous climate change’ - Take 2

Assumptions

1. Atmospheric CO2 354–1000 ppm (uniform)

2. Climate sensitivity Expert (Forrest et al. non linear)

3. Non-CO2 forcing 0.5–3.5Wm-2 , linked to CO2 (non linear)

Randomly sampled



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 5 10 15 20 25


Pro

babi

lity

of e

xcee

danc

e (%

)


Adaptation and mitigation

• Adaptation increases the coping range through biological and social means

• Mitigation reduces the magnitude and frequency of greenhouse-related climate hazards

Therefore, they are complementary, not interchangeable.

They also reduce different areas of climate uncertainty


Moving forward

AdaptationMost suited to impacts

vulnerable to current climate risks or small changes in climate change (These are the most likely to be affected)

Cannot cope with large changes or many impacts (too expensive and difficult)

Adaptation will be local and mainly shorter-term adjustments

MitigationReduces climate hazards (e.g. global

warming) progressively from the top down.

Unlikely to prevent a certain level of climate change – adaptation will be needed for such changes.

Mitigation that presents as a cost now will become profitable when damages become more apparent and BAU for the energy system changes to low emission operation

Almost certain

Highly likely

Least likely

Low probability, extreme outcomes

Damage to the most sensitive, many benefits

Increased damage to

many systems, fewer benefits

Considerable damage to most

systems

Moderately likely

Probability Consequence

Core benefits of adaptation and mitigation

Probability – the likelihood of reaching or exceeding a given level of global warmingConsequence – the effect of reaching or exceeding a given level of global warming

Risk = Probability × Consequence

Vulnerable to current climate

Happening now


Activities most at risk

Those where • critical thresholds are exceeded at low

levels of global warming, • adaptive capacity is low and/or

adaptation is prohibitively expensive, difficult or unknown and

• the consequences of exceeding those thresholds are judged to be serious

atmospheric research adaptation, vulnerability and integrated risk assessment roger n. jones asia...

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