Atlantic Atlantic Agriculture in a Agriculture in a Changing ClimateChanging Climate

David Burton, Ph.D, P.AgDavid Burton, Ph.D, P.AgClimate Change ChairClimate Change ChairNSACNSAC

Agriculture in a Changing Agriculture in a Changing ClimateClimate

• The Climate Change Issue– Mitigation of impacts on the atmosphere– Adapting to changing climatic conditions

• A new “climate” for agriculture– Increased scrutiny of the impacts of agriculture

on the environment– Agriculture as industry

• Agriculture a “price-taker”

We Must Mitigate We Must Mitigate andand AdaptAdapt

• Must seek to mitigate our impacts on the atmosphere– Need to minimize future impacts– For agriculture there are other environmental benefits

• Will not prevent climate change therefore must also focus on adaptation– Agriculture most effected by climate– Climate variability greatest challenge

““SWOT” AnalysisSWOT” Analysis

• Strengths

• Weaknesses

• Opportunities

• Threats

StrengthsStrengths

• Diversity– Mixed farming systems– Increases economic stability in changing

climate

• Resourcefulness of producer community– Atlantic producers most highly educated

• 43% have education beyond high school (Aubin et al., 2003).

StrengthsStrengths

• Most aware of climate change issue– Of those aware of climate change issue, 68%

believe producers should take responsibility for reducing GHG emissions

– Most willing to undertake voluntary action

• Strong linkage to rural community

WeaknessesWeaknesses

• Profit margins– Small differences between input costs and

returns increases vulnerability– High debit ratio

• Age of agricultural community– Average age 53– 36% intend to retire in next 5 years– Who will be our future producers?

WeaknessesWeaknesses

• Atlantic agriculture industry 4% of National– Sufficient support?

• Concentration in agricultural sector– 23% corporate ownership

• Tools for adaptation– Currently have few tools identified– Limited research and extension capacity

WeaknessesWeaknesses

• Producer awareness– Only 1 in 4 producers aware of climate change

or greenhouse gas issues

• Producer skepticism– 1/3 of agriculture producers feel their will be no

impact of climate change

OpportunitiesOpportunities

• Introduction of new crops to the region– Increased corn and soybean acreage?

• Improved yields of existing crops– Longer growing season

– CO2 fertilization

– Warmer temperatures

Bootsma et al., 2001

Bootsma et al., 2001

Shift to Corn-Soybean-Shift to Corn-Soybean-Barley rotationBarley rotation

• Corn – 2,300 ha @ 5.6 t/ha– $2.4 Million

• Soybean– 3,500 ha @ 2.3 t/h– $2.0 Million

• Barley– 55,000 ha @ 3 t/ha– $23 Million

• $27.4 Million

• Corn – 30,000 ha @ 7 t/ha– $39 Million

• Soybean– 20,000 ha @ 3.0 t/ha– $20 Million

• Barley– 25,000ha @ 3.15 t/ha– $11 Million

• $70 Million

20501995-1998

OpportunitiesOpportunities

• Impetus to develop risk management

• Linkage between adaptation and mitigation– Must address entire system– Stress co-benefits– Provide integrated solutions

ThreatsThreats

• Uncertainty – Do not have good future data sets

• Frequency of extreme events

Drought Severity

Drought Severity

pre-climate change changed climate

freq.(yrs)

+ X*

Xpc

Xcc

- X*

Time (years)

Smit et al., 2002

ThreatsThreats

• Frequency of extreme events• Economic risks

– Direct - Producer and larger community– Indirect - Volatility of markets

• Environmental Impact

ThreatsThreats

• Pests impacts– Greater numbers– Change in pest spectrum

• Sea-level rise– Loss of agricultural land– Salt water intrusion

IssuesIssues

• Water management– Will there be sufficient water? Too much?

• Other demands on water sources

• Ability to retain water on landscape

– Water quality• Potential for increased impacts on water quality

• Salt water intrusion on groundwater

IssuesIssues

• Economic risk management– Rationalize programs

– Stable, predictable programs that can be part of long-term planning

NeedsNeeds

• Improved future climate scenarios

• Increased understanding of vulnerability

• Capacity - research and extension support– Engaging the university community

• BIOCAP Canada

• Atlantic Environmental Science Network Climate Change Cooperative

Thank You