at the confluence of science, engineering, space, and … · at the confluence of science,...
TRANSCRIPT
AT THE CONFLUENCE OF
SCIENCE, ENGINEERING, SPACE,
AND HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTING
Burke Fort, Associate Director for Business Operations
GoPortugal | UT-Austin and Portugal Building the Future16 February 2018 | University of Porto
The University of Texas at Austin
Cockrell Schoolof Engineering
CSR
JacksonSchool of
Geosciences
College of Natural Sciences
OtherASE/EM
• Engineering– Aerospace– HP Computer– Engineering
Mechanics• Geosciences
– Geology– Geodesy– Oceans– Glaciology– Disaster Analytics UT System
• Founded in 1981• Budget: $10 million/yr• Founding Director: Dr.
Byron D. Tapley
• 83 Employees– 8 Faculty Members– 40 Research Staff– 10 Support Staff– 25 Graduate Students
PROF. SRINIVAS BETTADPURDIRECTOR, UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS CENTER FOR SPACE RESEARCH
Projects• GRACE Mission• GRACE Follow-On
Mission
• McDonald Geodetic Observatory
• mm-Metrology and the Terrestrial Reference Frame
• TOPEX/Poseidon Mission
Research Interests• Earth system dynamics• Precision orbits
• Global space geodesy• Regional applications of
global methods
• Use of new technologies: laser interferometry, cold-atom technologies, precise clocks, drag-free flight
UT CSR Research Areas• Celestial Mechanics and Astrodynamics
• Data Exploration: Models, Algorithms and Error Analysis
• Space Geodesy and the Global Gravity Field
• Mission & Data Architecture, Design and Simulation
• Radionavigation
• Remote Sensing
• Satellite Technology
• Scientific Interpretation and Analysis
UT CSR and Atlantic Interactions ThemesüSpace systems and applications
üAtmospheric science
üOcean science
üClimate change and energy systems
üData systems
UT CSR Toolkit• Gravity, from Space
• Lasers, to/from/in Space
• Disaster Analytics, from Space
• Radar, from Space
• STEM Education, employing Space
Science• High resolution gravity field
mapping• Mean & time variable
GRACE MISSIONNASA/DLR
Mission• Launched: March 17, 2002• Present Altitude: 340 km • Inclination: 89 degrees• Separation Distance: ~220 km• Lifetime: 5 years (in 16th year)
Amazing GRACE
• Ocean bottom pressure
• Ocean currents
• Groundwater
Amazing GRACE
• Drought monitor
• Ice sheet mass loss
• Post-seismic changes
GRACE Follow-On Mission
To Launch Late April 2018
McDonald Geodetic Observatory/GGOS
Plate Tectonics (Continental Drift)
Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat)
• ICESat measures elevation (elevation x area = volume); Laser altimeter
• GRACE measures gravity (mass)
• Both are needed to:– Validate ice mass loss– Examine other changes associated with
changes in surface density
• Applications:– Snowfall variability– Snow/ice compaction– Glacier trends– Global groundwater trends– Vegetation
Mid-American Geospatial Information Center (MAGIC)
• Direct Broadcast Receiving Station
• Emergency Response
• Regional Water Resources
Direct Broadcast Receiving Station
2.4-meter X-Band4.5-meter X-Band1.5-meter S/L-Band
Emergency Response - PLANNING
Wednesday, Sept. 10, 4 AM
Tuesday, Sept. 9, 4 AM
Thursday, Sept. 11, 4 AM
Thur
sday
, Sep
t. 11
, 4 P
M
Frid
ay, S
ept.
12, 4
AM
Evacuating Area
Sheltering CommunityStaging Area
Emergency Response - PLANNING
Emergency Response - DURING
• Texas Task Force 1
• Texas Division of Emergency Management
• Texas Commission on Environmental Quality• Texas Railroad Commission
• Texas Department of Transportation
• Texas Military Department• Texas Department of Public Safety
• Texas A&M Forest Service
• Texas Public Utility Commission
• Texas General Land Office
• Texas Department of Criminal Justice
• Texas Parks & Wildlife Department• Federal Emergency Management Agency
• NOAA - National Weather Service
• U.S. Geological Survey• U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
• U.S. Department of Agriculture
• American Red Cross
Emergency Response - RECOVERY
Radar: InSAR Acquisition Geometry
InSAR Image of Landers (CA) Earthquake
• The image covers a 90-by-110 km area from April 24 to August 7, 1992.
• One color cycle represents 28 mm of deformation in LOS direction.
• Credit: [Massonnet et al., 1993]
What’s Next for CSR?• Low-latency science to mitigate local impacts:
HURRICANES: Path, Coastal, Inland
What’s Next for CSR?• Low-latency science to mitigate local impacts:
DROUGHT and WILDFIRES
What’s Next for CSR?• Science sensor miniaturization
• Numerical simulations
• Future technologies– Cold-atom techniques for geodesy
– Drag-free flight
– Laser interferometry
Connect with UT CSRhttps://www.csr.utexas.edu
@UTAustin.CSR
@UTCSR
BURKE FORTAssociate Director for Business Operations+01 512 232 [email protected]
ASSIGNMENTProvide decision-makers with:
• Statement of capabilities and prospective impacts of a small-satellite (<500kg payload) spaceport
• Within Região Autónoma dos Açores
• Recommended, rank-ordered set of up to 3 feasible sites (if any)
• Strategies for moving forward within prescribed assumptions, limits, and constraints
CONCLUSIONSA small-sat spaceport located in Açores is:
• Feasible within the constraints and risks stated, if a site-responsive Concept of Operations is adopted
• Malbusca/Santa Maria Island site most suitable
• Enhancements:
• PRELIMINARY assessment; a thorough assessment is essential
• <150kg payload market• 1-3 stable launch
providers
• Local additive manufacturing• Expanded local workforce
training resources
FEASIBILITY: Factors• Launch facility framework:
• Must ensure environmental and community safety• Public-private partnership endeavor
• Global demand and supply forecasts for small-sat launch services
• Prospective economic and technological leveraging potentials
• Spaceport facility baseline with Açores-unique market differentiators
• Projected market capture
FEASIBILITY: Demand Conditions
Space-Based Activities
• $350Bn to $1.1Tn by 2040
• Driven by commercial sector
– Consumer broadband/TV
– Functional use of space data
– Ground equipment
• Collateral growth:
– Employment
– Technology development
– Science
– Education
Small-Sat Launch Services
• <50kg market 2017-2023:
– 2,400 small-sats
– 70% commercial; 20% academic
– 3-6kg: 60-90% of market
• Launch mode trends
– Near-term: Rideshare
– Out-years: Dedicated
FEASIBILITY: Supply ConditionsRideshare Launch Services
– Expensive• Large-sat launch complexity• Less per sat if multiple units
– Inconvenient, unpredictable
– Orbit options limited by main payload orbit
– 2017: Many technically-proven providers; thousands of small-sats manifested/announced
Dedicated Launch Services
– Less expensive• Small-sat launch simplicity roughly
offsets absence of multiple units
– More convenient, predictable
– Small-sat orbit needs are fully accommodated
– 2017-18: One Two technically- “proven” providers; few small-sats manifested/announced
FEASIBILITY: Site SuitabilityFour Prospective Sites
1. Flores Island Site 1: Fajã Lopo Vaz/Lajes (39.376446, -31.193856)
FEASIBILITY: Site SuitabilityFour Prospective Sites
1. Flores Island Site 1: Fajã Lopo Vaz/Lajes (39.376446, -31.193856)
2. Flores Island Site 2: Ponta Delgada (39.519449, -31.231469)
FEASIBILITY: Site SuitabilityFour Prospective Sites
1. Flores Island Site 1: Fajã Lopo Vaz/Lajes (39.376446, -31.193856)
2. Flores Island Site 2: Ponta Delgada (39.519449, -31.231469)
3. Santa Maria Island Site 1: LORAN Station (37.011653, -25.055825)
FEASIBILITY: Site SuitabilityFour Prospective Sites
1. Flores Island Site 1: Fajã Lopo Vaz/Lajes (39.376446, -31.193856)
2. Flores Island Site 2: Ponta Delgada (39.519449, -31.231469)
3. Santa Maria Island Site 1: LORAN Station (37.011653, -25.055825)
4. Santa Maria Island Site 2: Malbusca (36.937499, -25.076171)
FEASIBILITY: Site Suitability
Launch Corridor
Minimum Orbital Inclination Angle
Winds
Severe Weather
Airspace Congestion
Shipping Lanes
Regional Criteria
Port Access
Air Access
Energy Availability
Workforce
Emergency Services
Housing Capacity
Construction/Maintenance
Road Access
Existing Infrastructure
Site Safety Zone
Environmental Impact
Area Availability
Launch & Site Criteria
FEASIBILITY: Most Suitable SiteSanta Maria Island Site 2: Malbusca (36.937499, -25.076171)
FEASIBILITY: Market Capture• Existing and proposed small-sat launch facility sites• SWOT analysis• Strategies for moving forward
FEASIBILITY: Market CaptureFEASIBILITY: Market Capture
FEASIBILITY: SWOTStrengths
• Early market entry
• Wide range of orbits and other customer requirements can be accommodated
• Public sector collaboration
• Open to ANY small-sat payload customer
• Superb fiber connectivity
Opportunities
• Time to plan while dedicated small-sat launchers evolve
• Synced with robust national economy growth trends
• Capable of incorporating on-site value-added customer amenities
• Job creation and skillset growth potential
FEASIBILITY: SWOTWeaknesses
• Local skillset depth
• Transportation & shipping options for customers; insurance costs
• Limited number of launch providers accommodated
• Multi-entity sponsor strategy adds some speculative risk
• If launches only, no disruptive market differentiators
Threats
• Few stable launch providers exist
• Feasibility tied to timely securing a stable launch provider
• Planned spaceports completed first add competitive pressure
• Potential for failure of:
– Launch provider companies
– Anticipated launch vehicle performance
STRATEGIES: Moving Forward 1. Aggressively seek partnerships with1-3 stable launch
providers
2. Mitigate shipping & insurance cost weaknesses by enabling local manufacturing/assembly of payloads & rockets, including additive manufacturing capabilities (a market differentiator)
3. Deepen the Azorean workforce skillset by expanding local technical training & higher education assets
4. Aggressively pursue development of a comprehensive commercial space launch regulatory environment
FEASIBILITY: ROM Cost• Significant unknowns inhibit budget estimation at this time
• Lack of an identified stable small-sat launch provider/tenant• Unique design, business structure, Concept of Operations• Impacts of any incorporated multi-use and collocation elements
• Ripple effect through related supply chains
• Estimates are limited to assessment of published data about comparable facilities:• Purpose-built, single-provider (UK): $89.0 million (2017 USD)• Purpose-built, single-provider (US): $103.6 million (2017 USD)• Open-built, multi-provider (US): $285.0 million (2017 USD)
SUMMARY
• Technically feasible; significant market opportunity
• Environmental, public safety, and economic risks can be
reasonably managed with effective planning
• Potential for significant returns for Portugal
• All 4 candidate sites are capable; Malbusca most suitable
• If decision is to proceed, recommended priorities:
1. Must identify 1-3 stable launch provider partners/tenants
2. To enhance, incorporate compelling market differentiators