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THE VALUE OF THE HIGH ASWAN DAM TO THE EGYPTIAN ECONOMY Kenneth M. Strzepek a,b,c  , Gary W. Yohe d  , Richard S.J. Tol e,f,g and Mark Rosegrant b a Department of Civil Engineering, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA b International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, USA c International Max Planck Research School of Earth System Modelling, Hamburg, Germany d Department of Economics, Wesleyan University, Middletown, CT, USA e Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University and Centre for Marine and  Atmospheric Science, Hamburg, Germany  f Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands g Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA 10 June 2006 Working Paper FNU-111 Abstract The High Aswan Dam converted a variable and uncertain flow of river water into a predictable and controllable flow. We use a computable general equilibrium model of the Egyptian economy to estimate the economic impact of the High Aswan Dam. We compare the 1997 economy as it was to the 1997 economy as it would have been for 72 historical, pre-dam water flows. The steady water flow increased transport productivity, while the seasonal shift in water supply allowed for a shift towards more valuable summer crops. These static effects are worth LE 4.9 billion. Investments in transport and agriculture increased as a consequence. Assuming that Egypt is a small open economy, this is worth another LE 1.1 billion. The risk premium on the reduced variability is estimated to be LE 1.1 billion for a modest risk aversion, and perhaps LE 4.4 billion for a high risk aversion. The total gain of LE 7.1 billion equals 2.7% of GDP. Key words Egypt, High Aswan Dam, computable general equilibrium model, risk premium, water supply JEL Classification C68, O13, Q25 1

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