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1/23

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AstroCycle Analysis of January 21, 2011

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The SPX must stay below 1290 on Monday

The SPX reached the limits of a bearish correction near 1190 last Friday at the openforming an expanding wedge late last week that is usually a sign of too much enthusiasmand often heavily retraced as we saw the Nasdaq 100 do all day on Friday. However these

expanding wedges often lead to one more weaker rally after a deep retracement and itcould end near the Fed meeting Wednesday. The top Tick lines are trending in a bearish way

and the angle of descent is suggesting a short term low near Noon on Monday as the yellow andblue cycles show. The lower red and blue Put/Call and white Trin lines came back down with thelate rebound, leaving the SPX vulenrable to another move down into Tuesday before a probablerebound into the Fed release as the purple cycle shows. The bottom blue PPO line madeanother lower low on Thursday by breaking 1275 but the sharp rebound made a higher PPOhigh than last Friday cancelling the bearish trend for now and it will take a break of 1270 to turnbearish again. see chart here

3.3 and 10 day Low on Tuesday?, Moon in Capricorn and 320 deg. Low on Friday?

The SPX broke the blue trend line after 5 waves and dropped below 1275-80 which makes 1296 a possible multi month high but we need to stay

below 1290 on Monday and break below 1260 by the dual Moon cycle lows of Friday to make a move to the November lows of 1170 probable. The

top Tick lines are turning bullish with the rebound late last week, but they are making lower lows for now and should continue lower from their overbougthlevels on longer timne frames. The lower red and blue Put/Call and white Trin lines made very overbought lows on the Winter Solstice and early Januaryshown in yellow, which then stalled the SPX for 6 trading days and we appear to be doing the same into Tuesday-Wednesday, which should stall the SPXbelow 1300 at best or send us down into late January. The bottom blue PPO line made a lower low last Thursday but managed to climb back above the zeroline on Friday to turn the PPO trend neutral although it is still making lower highs and barely holding the zero line. see chart here

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2/23


Primary and Alternate Wave Count

The bearish Debt Deflation count is beingchallenged as we approach the limits of acorrective retracement near the previousWave 2 high of 1300 and a break abovewould most likely take us to the next Wave2 high of 1450 and even higher for the next4 year cycle high of 2012 and is the

alternate Debt Reflation bullish count.The move from the March 09 lows can belabeled in many ways but I prefer theABCDE labeling for the simplicity andbalance of the waves even without aperfect triangle and that implies the rallyfrom the March 09 low is corrective and willtake us back to the 2009 lows by the end of2011 but we must stay below 1300 andbreak below 1000 first.The strength of the rally from 1040 in July

2010 makes the bullish count morepossible and implies that the rally from theMarch 09 low is not over and we are nownear the end of the first Wave of 5 thatcould eventually take us back to the 2007highs for the 4 year cycle high of 2012, butwe must break above 1300 for that tohappen.



3/23


The Bullish case like 2005 needs to hold 1130

If the 2.5 year bullish pattern match continues then we should hold above1130 but end up struggling between 1130 and 1230 for half of 2011 until abreak higher to 1330 for Christmas 2011.

The Bearish case like 2002 needs a break of 1050

If the Bear returns as suspected from cyclical and fundamental analysis, thenwe should break below 1050 by early February and break the lows near 667by the end of 2011.



4/23


Moon 320 deg Low Friday the 28th? - Moon in Capricorn Low Monday the 31st? -Moon 20 deg. High on Friday the 4th? - Moon in Taurus Low Wednesday the 9th?

With both Moon 320 deg. and Moon in Capricorn lows due the week-end of the 30th, we should have a bearish enough reaction to the Fed statement ofWednesday the 26th to break 1260 and possibly reach 1230 before a sharp and possibly very profitable rebound into the New Moon cycle high of FridayFebruary the 4th if we make deep lows.



5/23


Click for Printable Chart

courtesy of StockCharts.com

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6/23


The 15 day Put/Call is back in record overbought and suggesting weakaness in the first half of 2011



The VIX dropped this fast only 3 times in 20 years suggesting a repeat of 2000-01 in 2011

The 4 month moving average of New Highs and Lows as shown by the red Aroon Oscillator line dropped to such low levelson December 1, 2010 as the VIX tests the key level of 17.50 which has acted as support and resistance for many years. Thefirst time we saw such low levels was on September 1, 2000 and the beginning of a 2 year decline and the pattern the last 18months is very much like we saw in 1999-2000, but even the December 1, 2006 occurance which is more similar to nowCalendar wise only saw a choppy rally from 1400 to 1430 for Christmas suggesting gains should be small and declines couldbe large in 2011 much like one Solar cycle ago in 2000-01.

Click here for Chart


Market Breadth

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7/23


Short Term Breadth is Bearish (-3)

The top Tick lines turned bearish and could drop a bit more before being oversoldThe lower red and blue Put/Call lines are mixed and stalling in overboughtThe lower white Trin line is turning bearish from very overbought on longer termThe bottom blue PPO line and StochRSI are turning beariish but still above zero line



The New Lows and Ratio are turning bearish but the New Lows are not rising much Click here for Chart


The Up and Down Volume with Ratio are turning bearish a bit Click here for Chart


The 55 and 10 day Trin are turning bearish in very overbought Click here for Chart


The Volatility is bullish but back near multi decade S/R near 17.50 Click here for Chart


Medium Term Breadth is Bearish (-3)

The McClellans are turning bearish after diverging for months Click here for Chart


Stocks above their 50/200 day MA are turning bearish Click here for Chart


Stocks on a Point and Figure buy signal are turning bearish Click here for Chart


The top Trin line is stalling and turning bearish in very overboughtThe middle Put/Call line is turning bullish but back in record overboughtThe lower Tick line is turning bearish from an overbought trend line



Long Term Breadth is Neutral (0)

The blue Nasdaq Up Volume is bullish above red Down Volume and the blue Nyse is crossing Click here for ChartClick for Printable Chart

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8/23


The Cumulative New Highs and Lows turned bullish from mildly oversoldThe McClellan Summation and StochRSI are turning bearish a bit



Gold rally is bearish, the Yield Curve is still critical and the US Dollar vs. Rates is weak Click here for Chart


Equities

Weekly trend is Neutralsee chart here - Monthly trend is Neutralsee chart here

Moon Cycle Low near Friday the 28thand Low near Monday the 31stand High near Friday the 4thand Low near Wednesday the 9thsee chart here

The 3 month cycle high is expected near near January 15thsee chart here

The 7.5 month cycle high is expected near December 15thsee chart hereThe 4.5-9 month cycle high is expected near January 15thsee chart here

The 17 month cycle high is expected near Marchsee chart here

The 30-60 month cycle low is expected in April and July. see chart here

- Jan-Apr 00, Jul-Oct 02, Jul-Oct 07 and Apr-Jul 2011?

The 8.6 year PI cycle low is expected in mid 2011. see chart here

- CRB High in 1980, Nikkei in 89, USA in 98 (00) and Global in 07The 4 year cycle high is expected in mid 2012. see chart here

- CRB High in 1980, Nikkei in 89, USA in 98 (00) and Global in 07

The years from 7 to 2 of the Decennial cycle are dangerous until 2012. see chart here

- Highs in 87, 97, 07 and Lows in 82, 92, 02 and 2012?

The 40 year cycle peaked in 2009 and the next low is due in 2014. see chart here

- Highs in 29, 69, 09 and lows of 34, 74 is due in 2014?

The SPX must stay below 1290 on Monday

The SPX reached the limits of a bearish correction near 1190 last Friday at the open forming an expanding wedge late last week that is usually asign of too much enthusiasm and often heavily retraced as we saw the Nasdaq 100 do all day on Friday. However these expanding wedges often

lead to one more weaker rally after a deep retracement and it could end near the Fed meeting Wednesday. The top Tick lines are trending in a

bearish way and the angle of descent is suggesting a short term low near Noon on Monday as the yellow and blue cycles show. The lower red and blue Put/Call and white Trin lines came back down with the late rebound, leaving the SPX vulenrable to another move down into Tuesday before a probable reboundinto the Fed release as the purple cycle shows. The bottom blue PPO line made another lower low on Thursday by breaking 1275 but the sharp reboundmade a higher PPO high than last Friday cancelling the bearish trend for now and it will take a break of 1270 to turn bearish again.

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9/23



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10/23



3.3 and 10 day Low on Tuesday?, Moon in Capricorn and 320 deg. Low on Friday?

The SPX broke the blue trend line after 5 waves and dropped below 1275-80 which makes 1296 a possible multi month high but we need to staybelow 1290 on Monday and break below 1260 by the dual Moon cycle lows of Friday to make a move to the November lows of 1170 probable. The

top Tick lines are turning bullish with the rebound late last week, but they are making lower lows for now and should continue lower from their overbougthlevels on longer timne frames. The lower red and blue Put/Call and white Trin lines made very overbought lows on the Winter Solstice and early Januaryshown in yellow, which then stalled the SPX for 6 trading days and we appear to be doing the same into Tuesday-Wednesday, which should stall the SPXbelow 1300 at best or send us down into late January. The bottom blue PPO line made a lower low last Thursday but managed to climb back above the zeroline on Friday to turn the PPO trend neutral although it is still making lower highs and barely holding the zero line.



A C l h A k f i
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11/23



The SPX is still fairly overbought for the week ending January 28th

The SPX made a Moon in Leo high on Wednesday morning just short of 1300 and reached the first support level rather quickly which suggests we willprobably break the September trend line near 1270 and reach 1260 or even 1230 for the dual Moon in Capricorn and 320 deg. cycle lows of Friday

the 28th. The top Tick lines are bearish but dropping into oversold enough for a low to develop this week once they start breaking trends and making higher

lows and highs. The lower red and blue Put/Call and white Trin and lines are stalling in overbought but could still support one more move up into the NewMoon of early February. The bottom blue PPO line made a lower December high than in November leaving a divergence that often precedes significanthighs but we need to break below 1260 for the PPO to fully break the recent lows and turn bearish towards 1230 and 1170.See the NDX 10 minute chart hereand the Dow 10 minute chart here



A t C l h A t k t f ti
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12/23



The SPX is overbought near major resistance at 1300-13

The SPX held 1260 for the second time and almost reached the 1300-13 high from August 2008 which is very strong resistance and should give usa pull back into the Full Moon cycle lows of Friday the 21st and 28th that would take us back at least to to 1260 or 1230. The top white Tick line is

making lower highs but also higher lows in a triangle that should break to the downside shortly from the very overbought lower white Put/Call and red Trin


AstroCycle research Accurate market forecasting
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13/23


lines. The lower white Put/Call line made a very overbought low for the Winter Solstice similar to the January 11, 2010 high which gave us a 10% drop butthe red Trin line is a lot more overbought than last Christmas and just as overbought as Christmas 2007 which suggests a larger 20% decline back to theSummer lows of 2010 in the first half of 2011. The bottom blue PPO line regained the bullish PPO trend in place since the July low and the SPX will need tostay above 1230 to keep the bullish trend going.See the Nasdaq hourly chart hereand the Dow hourly chart here



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14/23



Divergences since early 2010 suggests a weak first half and a negative 2011

The top McClellan Summation in red and green is making lower highs since April 2010 suggesting the whole move up from the July low will be retraced inthe first half of 2011 and that would take us back towards the 1000 level. The top white Call/Put ratio is as overbought as it was last Christmas andsuggesting a decline in the first quarter but the lower red Trin line is a lot more overbought than it was Christmas 2009 and more like we saw in

2007 which is predicting a larger decline towards 1000 in the first half. The 365 x 0.3141 (PI) = 114 days cycle in place since the first UBS subprime

high of February 27, 07 seen in the table here, has become too unreliable lately but its 2nd Harmonic of 2 x 114 = 228 day or 7.5 month is probably more

accurate and suggesting one low near the April 17th Full Moon of Easter. The 30 month cycle has marked many important double tops and bottoms in thelast decade and gave us the January and April 2010 top like we saw 4 x 30 months ago in 2000, but also 30 months ago in July and October 07, which wasa mirror image of the July and October lows of 2002 exactly 2 x 30 months before but the January and April 2005 cycle highs were only small short termhighs. From the early 2011 high, we should decline into a double bottom around April to July 2011 and those dates fall around the PI cycle low date of midJune 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1987, or mid July 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1929.See the Nasdaq daily chart hereand the Dow daily chart here



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15/23



Commodities

Oil went parabolic, but Gold and others have yet to follow like in 1920, 1980 and 2040?



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16/23



Gold broke the possible bullish triangle and will likely reach 1250-1300 from the bearish triple top

Weekly trend is Bearishsee chart here - Monthly trend is Neutralsee chart here

The Commitment of Traders for Gold are at first support and Neutralsee chart here

The 6 month cycle Low? is expected in Februarysee chart hereThe 11 month cycle High? is due in Januarysee chart here

The 22 month cycle high is due in November. see chart here

The 8 year cycle high is due near January 2012. see chart here

The 40 year cycle high is expected in 2020. see chart here

- 1920 High, 1940 Low, 1960 Low (inversion?), 1980 High, 2000 Low and 2020 High?



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17/23

y g


Silver peaked near the Geometric and Fib target of 31 and should decline to 23-25 in the first Quarter




18/23

y g

Weekly trend is Bearishsee chart below - Monthly trend is Neutralsee chart here

The Commitment of Traders for Silver are Neutral and no longer overboughtsee chart here

The 3.5 or 7 month cycle low is expected in February or Marchsee chart below

The 14-15 month cycle low is expected in May. see chart below

The 22 month cycle high is expected in November. see chart below

The 6 year cycle high is due near January 2012see chart here



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19/23


Gold Stocks will probably not exceed 210 by much before reaching 180-90 by March

Weekly trend is Bearishsee chart here - Monthly trend is Neutralsee chart here

Oil is wedging towards 100 for the 5 year high of July but should decline to 70 and probably 60 in 2011


The Commitment of Traders for Oil show Funds with record long positionssee chart here

The 11 month cycle high is due in late March. see chart here

The 18 month cycle high is due in late February. see chart here

The 30 month cycle low is due near January 2012. see chart here

The 5 year cycle high is due near July 2011. see chart here

The 30 year cycle high of 2009 was early by one year and the next low is due in 2024. see chart here

- Highs in 1919, 1949, 1979 and 2009 (2008 and 2010)? and Lows in 1834, 1964, 1994 and 2024?

The CRB should rebound to 330-60 or even 400-80 into the 5.5 year cycle high of late 2011

Weekly trend is Neutralsee chart here - Monthly trend is Bullishsee chart here

The 55 year Kondratiev cycle in Commodities gave us lows in 1822, 1877, 1932, 1987 and 2042? but we have revisited the 200 level from 1986 in 1992,

1999, 2001 and even 2009 which is a sign this bullish K-Wave in Commodities into the next projected high of 1812, 1867, 1922, 1977 and 2032? should be

weaker than previous ones.

Currencies

The Yen is the strongest currency since 1950 but should end its bull market in 2010-11The US Dollar is the weakest currency since 1980 but should start a 4-6 year Bull market in 2011-12The CDN Dollar is probably ending its 6-8 year Bull market in 2010-11 but is in a larger Bull into 2020-40



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20/23


The USD should hold 75-77 in the first Quarter and could reach 90 before turning down for the 2nd half of 2011

Weekly trend is Neutralsee chart below - Monthly trend is Neutralsee chart here

The Commitment of Traders for the USD are Neutral with little open interestsee chart here

The next 3.5 month cycle low is due in late February. see chart belowThe next 15 month cycle low is due in mid January. see chart belowThe next 18 month cycle low is due in early March. see chart below

The next 4.25 year cycle low is due in mid 2012. see chart here

The next 8 year cycle low is due in late 2012. see chart here

The 17 year cycle low of 2010 is likely to be a triple bottom into 2012. see chart here

- Highs in 1968, 85, 2002 and 2019?, Lows in 1978, 1991-92-95 and 2010 (2008 and 2012)?



http://www.stockcharts.com/http://astrocycle.net/USDMonthly.pnghttp://www.upperman.com/mprof/p41.gifhttp://astrocycle.net/USDMonthly.pnghttp://astrocycle.net/USDMonthly.pnghttp://astrocycle.net/USDMonthly.pnghttp://astrocycle.net/PrintPNG.php?Name=USDDaily.pnghttp://astrocycle.net/PrintPNG.php?Name=USDDaily.pnghttp://astrocycle.net/USDMonthly.pnghttp://astrocycle.net/USDMonthly.pnghttp://astrocycle.net/USDMonthly.pnghttp://www.upperman.com/mprof/p41.gifhttp://astrocycle.net/USDMonthly.pnghttp://www.stockcharts.com/


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The Yen is past its 5 and 17 year highs but short of its 8.5 year high but should pull back to 110-14 by late February




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The CDN Dollar should decline towards the 77 lows for the 16 year low of 2018


Bonds

Bonds are past their 6 and 60 year highs but should rebound from 118-20 to 128-30 in the first half of 2011.

Weekly trend is Neutralsee chart below - Monthly trend is Bearishsee chart here

The Commitment of Traders for Bonds are Neutral with little open interestsee chart here

The next 10 month cycle low is due in late January. see chart below

The next 3-6 year cycle will probably be a low in early 2012. see chart here

The next 8 year cycle low is due in 2014 but is not a very precise cycle. see chart here

The 60 year Kondratieff cycle high is due in 2010 but is not as precise as the lows. see chart here- Lows in 1800, 1860, 1920, 1980 and 2040?, Highs in 1950 and 2010?



http://astrocycle.net/Yen_D.pnghttp://astrocycle.net/Yen_M.pnghttp://astrocycle.net/CDWDaily.pnghttp://astrocycle.net/CDW_M.pnghttp://astrocycle.net/USB_M.pnghttp://www.upperman.com/mprof/p165.gifhttp://astrocycle.net/USB_M.pnghttp://astrocycle.net/USB_M.pnghttp://astrocycle.net/USB_M.pnghttp://astrocycle.net/PrintPNG.php?Name=USBDaily.pnghttp://astrocycle.net/PrintPNG.php?Name=USBDaily.pnghttp://astrocycle.net/USB_M.pnghttp://astrocycle.net/USB_M.pnghttp://astrocycle.net/USB_M.pnghttp://www.upperman.com/mprof/p165.gifhttp://astrocycle.net/USB_M.pnghttp://astrocycle.net/CDW_M.pnghttp://astrocycle.net/CDWDaily.pnghttp://astrocycle.net/Yen_M.pnghttp://astrocycle.net/Yen_D.png


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