assumptions for 2005/2006 objective capability determination nepool pspc dec. 20, 2004

Assumptions for 2005/2006 Objective Capability Determination

NEPOOL PSPC

Dec. 20, 2004

12.20.2004 Power Supply Planning Committee 2

Assumptions List

Assumption More than 20 MW Effect on Objective Capability

Capacity No

OP4 Actions 9 and 10 No

Minimum Operating Reserve Yes

Load Forecast Yes

Unit Availability Yes

Demand Response Programs Yes

5% Voltage Reduction Yes

Tie Benefits Yes

Needs PSPC Discussion Covered in Presentation


Objective Capability Assumptions

• Capacity– Existing capacity will be equal to those assets and

ratings noted in 2005 CELT Report

– Capacity additions based on ISO-NE recommended units and PSPC discussions

• Ridgewood Generation (8.4 MW)

• Berkshire Wind (15 MW) – For PSPC discussion

• Kendall ST 3 and CT Reactivation – For PSPC discussion

– Capacity attrition to include those with RC approved 18.4 applications for deactivation or retirement



• OP-4 Actions 9 and 10– Total of 45 MW– Verified with Operations that capacity is not

enrolled in ISO-NE Demand Response Program



• Minimum Operating Reserve – OP-4 Action 12– Modeled in Westinghouse as –200 MW– Verified with Operations (???)



• Load Forecast– 2005/2006 load forecast input into the

Reliability Model will be consistent with the 2005 CELT Forecast



• Unit Availability Options– 5-year Average Using EFOR– Using EFORd values

• “Adjusted” EFOR values for months with missing data

• NERC Class Average EFORd values for months with missing data



• Preliminary Data (Jan-00 through Oct-04)Unit Category Summer

MW04/05 OC Assumed

EFOR

Weighted EFOR

Weighted EFORd

Fossil 10,133.5 5.76 5.31 6.73

CC 2,765.4 1.31 2.44 4.88

New Unit CC 8,072.8 New Unit CC Maturity 6.32

Diesel 63.7 2.23 1.61 5.02

Jet 1,869.7 3.26 3.35 7.08

Nuclear 4,387.1 2.66 1.45 3.74

Hydro 3,195.5 0.93 0.91 3.81

Total System 30,487.7 3.80 3.40 5.52

– Pre-SMD EFORd data assumes NERC class average

– Summer MW per Dec-04 SCC Report



• ISO-NE Demand Response Program - Recommended Assumptions– Only reliability programs used in determination

• Real-Time 30-Minute Demand Response

• Real-Time 2-Hour Demand Response

• Real-Time Profiled Response

– Assets enrolled and ready to respond as of Jan. 1, 2005 will be included



• ISO-NE Demand Response Program• EFOR modeling of assets based on results of August 20,

2004 performance audit– EFOR = 1 – (Interruption MW / Total Enrolled MW)

Program Load Zone Assumed EFOR

RT 2-hour Demand Response CT 65%

ME 12%

NEMA 88%

WCMA 84%



Program Load Zone Assumed EFOR

RT 30 Minute Demand Response CT 0%

NEMA 40%

NH 32.5%

SEMEA 38%

VT 43%

WCMA 100%

Profiled Response ME 85.5%

NEMA 100%

VT 100%

RT Price Response No RT Price Response MW assumed for 2005/2006 OC Calculation

• ISO-NE Demand Response Program


Demand Response(as of November 30, 2004)

493 Assets 335.8 MW 19 Assets 46.3 MWZone Assets RT Price RT 30-Min RT 2-Hour Profiled Assets RT Price RT 30-Min RT 2-Hour Profiled

CT 161 31.8 93.7 0.4 0.0 16 9.0 12.9 0.0 0.0

SWCT* 108 5.2 68.4 0.4 0.0 14 0.0 12.9 0.0 0.0

ME 8 27.5 0.0 1.0 76.0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NEMA 114 38.9 3.3 1.5 1.4 1 0.0 24.0 0.0 0.0

NH 5 10.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

RI 11 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

SEMA 81 8.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

VT 17 7.5 0.1 0.0 5.9 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

WCMA 96 12.6 2.3 9.3 0.0 1 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0

Total 493 140.0 100.4 12.3 83.2 19.0 9.1 37.2 0.0 0.0

Ready To Respond: Approved:

* SWCT assets are included in CT values and are not included in Total



• 5% Voltage Reduction amount to be used in OC determination– For further PSPC discussion



• Tie Benefits– For further PSPC discussion

assumptions for 2005/2006 objective capability determination nepool pspc dec. 20, 2004

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