assessing the paradigm shift in sri lanka’s … the paradigm shift in sri lanka’s development of...
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ASSESSING THE PARADIGM SHIFT IN SRI
LANKA’S DEVELOPMENT OF THE
TRANSPORT SECTOR
AMAL S. KUMARAGE
UNIVERSITY OF MORATUWAUNIVERSITY OF MORATUWA
[email protected]@UOM.LK
30th January 2014
Public Lecture Central Bank of Sri Lanka Colombo
Some definitions
� Emphasis: Paradigm Shift
� Scope: Mostly on land transport
� Approach: investigate each of the major elements
of policy intervention
1. Identifying the Changing Demand 1. Identifying the Changing Demand 1. Identifying the Changing Demand 1. Identifying the Changing Demand
Function for Transport Function for Transport Function for Transport Function for Transport
� Transport functions change with time.
� Changes in political ideology, trade opportunities, technology
and socio-economic conditions lead to change.
Period Demand Function Supply Function
Pre- Colonial Self Sustaining
Communities
Internal trade less and infrastructure mostly provided by the
respective communities. International trade routes were supported Communities respective communities. International trade routes were supported
by the Kings- ports, roads.
Dutch Development of Export
trade
Development of Canal Systems in WP, emergence of Colombo as
primary international trade node for spices and coconut. Other parts
of country largely ignored.
British Development of
plantation economy
Development of tea and rubber exports supported by the rail and
road radiating from Colombo. Neglect of rural access.
Post-
Independence
Development of rural
economy
Rapid expansion of rural road and bus transport network. Neglect of
urban and inter-urban transport.
Post-
Agricultural
Emergence of urban
economy
Rapid expansion of inter-urban and urban transport infrastructure
and services.
Modern Emergence of leisure
lifestyle
Change of travel patterns, destinations, modes
2. Determining the Correct Role of 2. Determining the Correct Role of 2. Determining the Correct Role of 2. Determining the Correct Role of
Government in Transport Government in Transport Government in Transport Government in Transport
Reformer
Regulator
Reformer
Self-RegulatoryRegulator
Provider
Self-Regulatory
Private Provider
Price
SConsumer
Surplus
3. Ensuring Transport Development 3. Ensuring Transport Development 3. Ensuring Transport Development 3. Ensuring Transport Development
leads to Economic Growthleads to Economic Growthleads to Economic Growthleads to Economic Growth
Quantity
Po
Qo
Producer Surplus
D
Price
SConsumer
Surplus S’
Quantity
Po
Qo
Producer Surplus
D
P1
Q1
Price
SConsumer
Surplus S’
Quantity
Po
Qo
Producer Surplus
D
P1
Q1
Price
SConsumer
Surplus S’
Quantity
Po
Qo
Producer Surplus
D
P1
Q1
S’
Ancient Lanka
� Cities located sufficiently inland to
protect against invaders• Polonnaruwa
� Urban road networks feed the cities
� Road and River Networks connect
cities to seaports
E.g. Anuradhapura and Polonnaruwa
� Multiple roads centered
on Capital cities
Source: P Vidanapathirana, Ancient TransportSystems, PhD Thesis, University of Kelaniya, 2012
� Connecting multiple ports to
multiple trade destinations
� Multi-modal transport system
P Vidanapathirana, Ancient Transport Systems,PhD Thesis, University of Kelaniya, 2012
Colonial Ceylon
� Canal, Railway and Road network
Centered on international
connectivity
� Strong Inter urban linkages
� Well developed multi modal systems
� Modern technology
� Transport in urban and suburban areas
well developed.
� Neglect of areas which did not
contribute to export trade
Post-Independent Sri Lanka
� Emphasis on Rural Access
� Develops bus transport as low
cost, highly accessible mode
� Neglects railways, urban and inter-
Source :Road Development Authority
Neglects railways, urban and inter-
urban roads
� Control of private vehicles
Current Paradigm
� Encouraging private/ para
transport solutions
� Single mode future
� Developing alternate nodes
� Improving rural and inter-urban
mobility
Required Outcomes
� Linking producers and consumers
� Via suitable market nodes
� Via suitable transport nodes
� Efficient transfers (terminals and logistics centres)
� Choice and flexibility (multi modal)
4. Ensuring Transport Development leads to
Balanced & Sustainable Development (BSD)
Efficiency in
Mobility
Environmental
Sustainability
LIVE
AB
ILITYEconomic
Growth
Access to New
Economic
Opportunities
Equitable Access
to Social
Development
Sustainable
Economic
Growth
Sustainable
Social
Development
LIVE
AB
ILITY
5. Identifying the Required Supply Function for
Transport
The supply of transport requires the following:
•Infrastructure Facilities
•Rolling Stock Services
•Delivery Processes (policies+ regulations + institutions +
procedures + people)
Pre- Colonial ColonialPost
IndependenceModern
Infrastructure State State State State+ Private
Rolling Stock Private
State (Railway)
Private (Buses,
Trucks, Cars)
State (Railway, Bus)
Private (Cars, Trucks)State � Private
Processes State State State State+ Private
procedures + people)
Technology Options for Transport Supply
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Ow
ne
rsh
ip R
ate
(p
er
10
00
pe
rso
n)
Vehicle Ownership Rate Vs Per Capita Income at Different Levels of
Intervention
Low
Moderate
High
Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France,
Germany, Sweden, Switzerland,
Japan, Seoul
USA, Australia, Canada
0
100
200
300
400
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000
Ve
hic
le O
wn
ers
hip
Ra
te (
pe
r 1
00
0 p
ers
on
)
Per Capita Income 1995 PPP(USD)
Japan, Seoul
Singapore, Hong Kong
Demand for Travel by Mode (1958-2030)Passenger Kms carried by modes- Sri Lanka
DEMAND FOR TRAVEL BY MODE (1958-2030)Passenger Kms carried by modes- Sri Lanka
6. The Supply Function: Public Investment in
Transport
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Ports and Aviation
Highways
Public Transport
1.9%2.6%
Current Trend
� Vehicle taxes source road building (with a surplus)
� Public Transport seen as burden to treasury
Future Path
� Translate financial profit to Treasury to economic gains to
economy
� Cross subsidy between private and public transport
� Heavy investment in bus transport infrastructure
� New modes of urban public transport (BRT, Monorail)
7. Directing Private Investment in Transport
� Private Investment in Vehicles- Rs 400 bn+ p.a. (approximately 60%
in taxes).
� Industry Profile
Most sub sectors have an over supply and utilization is poor� Most sub sectors have an over supply and utilization is poor
� Mostly informal operations, inefficient with limited service parameters.
� Formal operators marginally improved and serves small market segments
� Service Delivery by Private Operators
� Public Transport (low fares, poor service, moderate infrastructure, but
profitable-except when govt operates)
� Para Transit (rapid growth, high fares, moderate service quality)
� Trucking Services (high rates, moderate service, poor technology)
8. Improving Delivery Processes in Transport
Sector
� Why is there delivery failure?
� The inevitable steps to proper delivery
� The correct policy� The correct policy
� The correct plan
� The correct infrastructure and rolling stock
� The correct procedures
� The correct people
Conclusion
� Focus on rapid improvement of urban transport
� Focus on reforms to sector as opposed to continuing operations
� Integrate transport with economic growth and equitable social development
Verify long term sustainability in transport policy & selection of transport modes� Verify long term sustainability in transport policy & selection of transport modes
� Move on from thinking ‘vehicles for roads’ which gives short term financial gains
� Improve service delivery by private sector. Capacity expansion not most urgent.
� Restore/Set up correct processes and people with correct skills and competencies
in key planning and operational positions (both state and private sector)