Assessing the Impacts Of and Adapting to Climate Change at a Local/National Level In India

Sumana BhattacharyaNATCOM PMC, Winrock Internationa India

OECD Global Forum on Sustainable Development on the Economic Benefits of Climate Change

6-7 July, 2006, OECD Headquarters, Paris

Outline

Context

India’s Concerns

Status of Knowledge

Studies carried out so far

Features and Limitations

Approaches for the future

Approach to Mainstreaming V&A

The Setting India is a vast country (3.28 million sq km)

Human population of 914 million and livestock population of 475 million in 1994

Diverse physiographic features - Himalayas, Coastal areas, northern plains, peninsular plateau and islands

Occupies 2.4% of the worlds land area but support 16.2% of the worlds human population

Dominating feature of climate is the Monsoon

Endowed with varied soils, climate, biodiversity and ecological regions

GDP at 269 billion US$ (Per capita 294 US$ )

Agriculture is less than 25% of GDP and supports 650 million people

Coal is the dominant source of energy (47% of total commercial energy)

Diverse natural conditions, high population, limited and degraded natural resources

Climate Projections

Maximum temperature: increase by 2-4°C during 2050s

Minimum temperature: Increase up to 4oC all over the country.

May exceed 4°C over southern peninsula, northeast India and some parts of Punjab, Haryana and Bihar.

Monsoon Rainfall: Marginal changes in monsoon months (JJAS)

: Large changes during non-monsoon months

Number of rainy days: Decrease in the number of rainy days over a major part of the country. More in western and central part (by more than 15 days) while near foothills of Himalayas (Uttaranchal) and in northeast India the number of rainy days may increase by 5-10 days.

Extreme Rainfall events: Overall increase in the rainy day intensity by 1-4 mm/day except for small areas in northwest India where the rainfall intensities decrease by 1 mm/day.

Cyclonic storms: Increase in frequency and intensity of cyclonic storms is projected

Sea Level may rise by 0.09-0.88 m in 1990 to 2100.

Extreme events : Intense rainfalls, Frequent Flash floods, Frequent and intense Droughts, More intense Cyclones, Frequent Forest Fires

Climate Projections

•Projected regional variation in surface runoff and general reduction quantity of available water in various river basins

•Increase in precipitation in Mahanadi, Brahmani, Ganga, Godavari, and Cauvery basins

•Sabarmati and Luni basins show drastic decrease in precipitation and consequent decrease of total runoff to the tune of 2/3rd of the prevailing runoff leading to severe drought conditions Flooding conditions may deteriorate in two river systems namely Mahanadi and Brahmani.

Water resources

(a) (b)

Change (%) in water balance for Control and GHG climate scenarios

-70

-60-50

-40

-30-20

-10

0

1020

30

Mah

anad

i

Bra

hman

i

Gan

ga

God

avar

i

Cau

very

Nar

mad

a

Tapi

Kris

hna

Pen

nar

Mah

i

Luni

Sab

arm

ati

River Basins

Chan

ge fr

om c

urre

nt to

futu

re %

Rainfall Runoff ET

Acute physical water scarce conditionsConstant water scarcities and shortageSeasonal / regular water stressed conditionsRare water shortages

Key Vulnerable River Basins

•Simulations using dynamic crop models indicate a decrease in yield of crops as temperature increases in different parts of India- For example a a 2°C increase in mean air temperature, rice yields could decrease by about 0.75 ton/hectare in the high yield areas and by about 0.06 ton/hectare in the low yield coastal regions.

•Major impacts of climate change will be on rain fed crops (otherthan rice and wheat), which account for nearly 60% of cropland area. In India poorest farmers practice rain fed agriculture.

•The loss in farm-level net revenue will range between 9 and 25% for a temperature rise of 2-3.5°C.

Agriculture

Coastal Zones

Vulnerable areas along the Indian Coast due to SLR

•Simulation models show an increase in frequencies of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal particularly intense events are projected during the post-monsoon period

•Sea level rise is projected to displace populations in coastal zones, increase flooding in low-lying coastal areas, loss of crop yields from inundation and salinization.

7500 km coast line

Forestry

Climate impact assessments using BIOME-3 model and climate projections for the year 2085 show 77% and 68% of the forested grids in India are likely to experience shift in forest types under A2 and B2 scenario, respectively.

Indications show a shift towards wetter forest types in the northeastern region and drier forest types in the northwestern region in the absence of human influence.

Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate warming could also result in a doubling of net primary productivity under the A2 scenario and nearly 70% increase under the B2 scenario

Expected biome types under climate projections in 2050.

Present vegetation mapPresent Biome Types

Tundra

Boreal Evergreen

Tropical Seasonal Forest

Xeric woodlandXeric Shrub landDry savannah

Health

Malaria is likely to persist in many states and new regions at hogher latitudes may become malaria-prone

The duration of the malaria transmission windows is likely to widen in northern and western states and shorten in southern states.

Endemic regions of malaria

Regions likely to be affected by malaria in 2050s

Vulnerability and Adaptation

V&A – Institutional Arrangement -NATCOM

Review of studies on coping measures

Chattisgarh

OrissaGujarat

BiharAP

UPKarnataka

AssamRajasthan

FloodsDroughts

Single stress –climate change

Climate variability and change

Multiple stresses

Sce

nari

o-

base

d

mo

dell

ing

Vu

lnera

bil

ity

ind

icato

rsC

om

mu

nit

y

inte

ract

ion

•CIDA agr

•SIDA Agri

• APN agr/climate info•OFDA floods/droughts• WB agr/water

• APN agr/rice-wheat

•Natcomagr/wat/for/health•Indo-UK agr/wat/ for/health/coastal

•Natcomcoastal/disasters

•Ford SLR•APN glaciers

•WB agr

Features / Limitations of Impact Assessments Made so Far

• Un-integrated studies : either impact based/ community interaction based/vulnerability indicator based using single stress /climate variability & change/multiple stress

• Impact assessment made using climate change projections based on a single model outputs (RCM Had RM2) and single scenario

• Uncertainty of projections of climate parameters at regional level

• Limitations of models in assessing sectoral impacts at regional level (forests, crop production, water)

• Limited data availability

Status of Current Knowledge

•Fragmentary

•High degree of uncertainty with all impact projections

•Uncertainties arise because of

-Limited understanding of many critical processes in the climate system

-Existence of multiple climatic and non-climatic stresses

-regional scale variations and non-linearities

-Future itself is not easy to predict with confidence

Developing country

• More vulnerable to the effects of climate change

- Being highly dependent on climate sensitive sectors such as agriculture, forestry and fisheries

• Low Financial Adaptive Capacity

Indian Circumstances

Adaptation Analysis- so far

• Preliminary assessments made for different sectors; including assessment of current policies and programmes in relation to vulnerability

• Most extant policies, measures & technologies also address current stresses to some extent and also relevant for adaptation to climate change (water, forest, agriculture, etc.)

• Still, incremental mechanisms needed to address climate changeimpacts

• Further analysis needed to identify adaptation technologies, measures, institutions, financial needs for adaptation at local levels

Immediate task in Preparation for Adaptation to Climate Change

• Improve existing climate scenario projections and the sectoral impact assessments

• Develop socio economic scenarios in conjunction with India’s developmental path

• Carry out studies at identified climatically hotspot areas

• Institute an integrated approach to understand the inter-sectoral linkages affecting the physical and socio economic vulnerabilities at local levels

• Carry out analysis to formulate adaptation frameworks at these scales which can provide inputs for the development of a national adaptation plan for combating the adverse effects of climate change.

• Focus on targets for development in the planning process• Strengthen policies for food security, forests, manage

disasters and infrastructure development• Appropriate allocation of funds for National Development

Programme Implementation• Step technology development and dissemination• Strengthen Institutional mechanisms as instruments of

adaptation at local level• Introduce new Regulatory mechanisms for CC• Arrangement of funds for adaptation• Align mitigation and adaptation• Mainstream climate change concerns and hence adaptation

in the planning process• Development as adaptation

Steps Facilitating Adaptation at National and Local Level

Key tasks for addressing vulnerability and adaptation needs

Interface with IPCC assessments, interfacing with regional/global databases, scenarios and assessments, technology inventory database

Research networks, National databases (e.g. NATCOM), scientific and policy models, national scenarios, technology inventory

Locale specific databases, scenarios and assessment, local monitoring networks

Knowledge/Information

Participation in global/ regional modeling and assessments

Scientific assessment, measurement, models, national research agenda

Monitoring, observation Awareness/assessment at state/ district/ community levels

Capacity Building

Regional/ GlobalNationalLocalGeographic Hierarchy

Strategies

Key tasks for addressing vulnerability and adaptation needs

Adaptation funds, trans-boundary regulations

Science-policy intercations, economic instruments (e.g. insurance, R&D funds), integration with national development/ planning process

Local specific adaptation plans, community based adaptation programs

Policy/ Instruments

FCCC processes, trans-boundary impacts assessment

Stakeholders networks, public/ private programs

Community initiatives, Early warning networks

Institutions/ Partnerships

Regional/ GlobalNationalLocalGeographic Hierarchy

Strategies

Continued…

Key tasks for addressing vulnerability and adaptation needs

Scientific exchange, technology transfer

Targeted R&D, Technology transfer protocols, demonstration/ pilot projects

Locale specific technology adaptation

Technology

Regional/ GlobalNationalLocalGeographic Hierarchy

Strategies