assessing the future of futures studies in management
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Assessing the future of futures studies in management
Jan Oliver Schwarz
PII: S0016-3287(07)00107-3DOI: doi:10.1016/j.futures.2007.08.018Reference: JFTR 1215
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Cite this article as: Jan Oliver Schwarz, Assessing the future of futures studies in manage-ment, Futures (2007), doi:10.1016/j.futures.2007.08.018
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Assessing the future of futures studies in management
Jan Oliver Schwarz*
The Berlin University of the Arts
Strategic Communication and Planning
Adelheidstr. 34; 80796 München; Germany
Abstract
It can be observed that a growing number of German corporations are using futures studies and
its methods in various ways. This evidence suggests that there is a strong ongoing interest in
the field of management in futures studies. To assess how the future of futures studies might
look like a Delphi study was carried out. The experts in this Delphi study were asked not only to
state how futures studies are used in corporations but also what futures studies need to
accomplish in order to find more acceptance.
The Delphi study suggests that futures studies will become more important in German
corporations. In particular the improvement of methods like environmental scanning, trend
research, trend monitoring, strategic early warning and the scenario technique were suggested.
While the results of the Delphi study do not suggest that new methods are needed,
implementation remains a major concern.
*Tel.: +49(0)-89-97895072; Fax: +49(0)-89-97895073;
Email: [email protected]
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1. Introduction
After the original evolvement of futures studies in the 1950s, which happened primarily in the
governmental field, futures studies are today experiencing a growing importance in
corporations [1,2]. Royal Dutch Shell started out using the scenario technique in its planning
process in the 1970s [3,4]. In the USA there seems to be contradictory evidence about the role
of futures studies. Will it increase in importance [5] or will it decrease? Peter Schwartz [6]
mentioned in an interview, that its role has already decreased in the past.
Currently a growing number of corporations in Germany [7,8] are employing futurists. They are
using the methods of futures studies, and are establishing future oriented think-tanks. There is
a strong ongoing interest in that field, especially when it comes to management. This is not only
reflected by the increase of corporate activities and an increase in the number of consultancies
and think-tanks, but also by the increasing numbers of conferences on futures studies in
Germany. This trend is underlined by various publications which urge corporations to develop
foresight [9,10]. One of the most prominent authors being Garry Hamel and C. K. Prahalad [11].
How will futures studies evolve in German corporations? How can the demand for futurists be
assessed and how can future fields of research be determined? The Delphi technique can
answer some of these questions. The Delphi technique has the advantage that it avoids
uncontrolled psychological interferences among the experts by making direct interactions
impossible. Unfortunately there is very little literature on the usage of futures studies in German
corporations which makes the Delphi techniques all the more suitable, it is recognized for being
applicable when a question shall be answered which lies in the future.
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2. Futures studies and management
2.1 Futures studies
To find a clear and commonly shared definition of futures studies is not possible. This article
considers future studies in a corporate context, as an activity aimed at supporting strategic
future oriented action [8]. In order to set a frame of reference for the Delphi study, considering
the various methods of futures studies is important. When reviewing the literature
[12,13,14,15,16,17,18] three methods can be identified: the Delphi technique, the scenario
technique, and forecasting, understanding forecasting in a corporate context primarily as
quantitative (business) forecasting. Strategic early warning systems, which are rooted in
Ansoff’s [19] concept of strategic issue management, play a significant role in Germany. Masini
[15], May [16], and Lindgren and Bandhold [20] state that issue management is a method of
futures studies. This study also covers methods of simulation and gaming and also techniques
which foster creative thinking about the future. This selection reflects those methods of futures
studies which are used in German corporations, as laid out in a study of the future consultancy
Z_punkt [8]. These different methods will be discussed briefly.
2.1.1 Quantitative forecasting
The aim of quantitative forecasting, especially in an organizational context, is to help decision
makers to make the best possible decision about future events [21]. The method of quantitative
forecasting relies primarily on the technique of extrapolating data and trends. The basic
assumption is that the past is the prologue for the future [22,23] assuming further that the
environment of an organization will not change significantly [24].
2.1.2 Simulation and gaming
Simulation and gaming are terms that are used to describe variants of a similar principle. Both
methods can be perceived as being decision-aiding technologies involving mathematical
modelling. Gaming is rooted in the game theory which is a mathematical theory dealing with
abstract competitive situations involving players, moves and payoffs. Simulation, in contrast to
the game theory, is an activity which sets out, after constructing a model of reality, to observe
how the entities represented in the model react to player interventions [14].
2.1.3 Delphi technique
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The Delphi technique was one of the spin-offs of defence research [25]. It was developed by
Olaf Helmer and Norman Dalkey in 1953 [14] at the RAND Corporation with the aim of
improving the use of expert opinion in policy-making. The core of the Delphi technique is that a
pool of experts deals with a certain problem that lies in the future. During this process the
experts do not have any contact with each other; their opinions are submitted by questionnaires.
In evaluating the questionnaires the goal is to achieve a consensus between the varying
opinions.
2.1.4 Scenario technique
The development of the scenario technique reaches back to the 1950s when Herman Kahn of
the RAND Corporation [26] and his colleague, Anthony J. Wiener, established the scenario
writing technique. In the 1970s Royal Dutch/Shell developed the scenario technique further into
what is nowadays known as scenario planning, connecting the scenario technique with strategic
planning [27]. In contrast to scenario writing, scenario planning is more a qualitative method
which relies on a process conducted by the management of an organization rather than by
scenario experts [28]. The main aim of scenarios is to identify existing trends and key
uncertainties and combine them in pictures of the future, not covering all eventualities but
discovering the boundaries of future outcomes [29]. Most importantly, scenarios should cover
generically different futures rather than variations of one of them [30], thinking about the
unthinkable.
2.1.5 Issue management and strategic early warning
The purpose of issue management is first to identify and monitor social, technological, political
and economic forces and trends, then to interpret and define implications and opinions and
finally to set strategic action in order to deal with the situation [15]. These thoughts have been
incorporated in Germany in the concept of Strategische Frühaufklärung (strategic early
warning). The underlying assumption is that discontinuities do not emerge without a warning
[31]. These warning signs can be described as weak signals. The concept of weak signals [32]
aims at early detection of those signals which could lead to strategic surprises and to an event
which has the potential to jeopardise an organization’s strategy. Detecting weak signals is
achieved by scanning the organization’s environment. The concept of environmental scanning
[33] describes a process whereby the environment in which an organization operates is
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systematically scanned for relevant information. The purpose is to identify early signals of
possible environmental change and to detect environmental change already underway [34].
2.1.6 Creativity
Under the heading of creativity all those methods are summarized which foster creative thinking
about the future. In particular the brainstorming technique is suitable to deal or think about the
future [35,16,8]. Another creativity technique in futures studies is the future workshop designed
by Robert Jungk [16,18]. Using these techniques can become important for instance in
conducting a scenario exercise [18].
2.2 Futures studies and management
The concepts of strategic management and futures studies both argue that they recognize the
rising complexity and dynamics in an organization’s environment and the need for managers to
make decisions in such an environment. By looking briefly at the role the future plays in
planning and decision making, it is necessary to underline the importance of futures studies in
management. The anticipation of the future in planning can already be observed in daily
planning situations, since every action decision implies some assumption about the future [36].
Plans connect the present with the future, a plan pulls the future into the present [37]. Without a
perception of the future decisions can not be made, so decision making is predominantly future
orientated [38]. In particular the scenario technique has established itself as a widely accepted
tool in strategy formulation [39,40,41]. The concept of strategic management itself is concerned
with dealing with the organization’s environment. Igor H. Ansoff [19] outlines that strategic
management is a systematic approach for managing strategic change which consists of
positioning the firm through strategy and capability planning, real time strategic response
through issue management und systematic management of resistance during strategic
implementation. The aim of strategic management is to proactively create the future [42],
underlining the importance of thinking about the future in management.
2.3 Futures studies in German management
The brief discussion on the interrelationship between decision making, planning and the future
stresses the importance of futures studies in management. The German future consultancy
Z_punkt did the first survey on futures studies in German corporations [8], attempting to
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evaluate the motivation and goals in applying futures studies in corporations and analyzing the
methods. 26 larger corporations were surveyed which were familiar with futures studies or at
least had established highly innovative and future oriented strategies. The study concludes that
futures studies no longer have the status of being the court jester in corporations. Futures
studies are about to be recognized as an important part and an important tool for formulating
corporate strategy. Futures studies are not fully established in those corporations surveyed, but
since the early 90s their acceptance rises and looses its exotic status.
The best known and oldest corporate future think-tank in Germany is the DaimlerChrysler
Society and Technology Research Group in Berlin. The group was established in 1979 and has
now about 30 consulting researchers in Berlin, Kyoto, and Palo Alto, California [7]. Deutsche
Bank is another example of a corporation using futures studies. Within the corporate centre of
Deutsche Bank there are activities in the personnel department [43] and in the macroeconomic
research department [44]. The chemical corporation BASF just recently established the think-
tank Future-Business with 12 researchers [45] and Siemens mobile established the think-tank
Product Visionaries to research the future of mobile telephones in Germany [46]. Deutsche
Bahn, Lufthansa and BMW have also established think-tanks [47]. Other examples of German
corporations employing futurists are the Allianz Group, Deutsche Post [48], EADS [49], Siemens
[50], Volkswagen [51], Munich Reinsurance Group [52], and Deutsche Telekom [53].
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3. The design of the Delphi study
While there is evidence that futures studies become more important in German corporations,
little can be said about the future perspectives of futures studies. Therefore the Delphi study
was initiated.
The Delphi study consisted of two rounds. In the first round the participants received the
questionnaire with quantitative and qualitative questions. In the second round the members of
the panel received the results of the first round. In the light of this information the members of
the panel were asked to revise their expressed opinions. This second round is the most
important feature of a Delphi study [54]. The results of the quantitative questions were
presented in absolute and relative figures, the qualitative questions were clustered.
An essential feature of this particular Delphi study is that experts from three groups were invited
to participate: corporate managers working in a strategic context and strategy and management
consultants (corporate managers); futurists in think-tanks and consultancies (futurist); and also
scientists in the field of management. Members of the first group (corporate managers) were
selected by contacting corporations and consultancies with the request to name employees
which work in a strategic context. Criteria for the corporations were an annual turnover of at
least €500 million and with more than 10,000 employees. The consultancies were selected by
inviting the top 20 largest strategy and management consultancies. The second group (futurists)
was selected by researching various think-tanks and consultancies. Finally, the third group
(scientists) consisted of members of German Universities.
In the first round the 84 participants filled out the questionnaire. 64 of them responded in the
second round and returned their comments concerning the results of the first round. The
response rate for the second round was 76 percent. In the figure below the proportions of the
three expert groups in the second round of the Delphi process are displayed. The largest group
is the one consisting of corporate managers - which also reflects the focus of the Delphi study.
Figure 1
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4. Results of the Delphi study
4.1 The status-quo: futures studies in German corporations
To assess the status-quo of futures studies in German corporations only the answers provided
by the group of corporate managers are of concern at this point. Since the questions concerning
the status-quo were not distributed in the second round of the Delphi study, the answers of the
members of the group of corporate managers of the first round are displayed.
Figure 2 displays the answers to the questions which methods of futures studies have been
used in the past and at what frequency. Combining the figures for “frequently” and
“occasionally” allows the conclusion that the methods used most in German corporations are
environmental scanning, trend monitoring, trend research, strategic early warning and the
scenario technique, followed by quantitative forecasting and those methods for thinking
creatively about the future. Comparing these results with the Z_punkt study [8] it appears that
the importance of environmental scanning, trend monitoring, trend research, and strategic early
warning has remained at the same level. In contrast the use of the scenario technique and
quantitative methods has increased, whereas the methods for thinking creatively about the
future remained at the same level.
Figure 2:
Other questions concerning the status-quo of futures studies in German corporations revealed
that 36 percent of futures studies are carried out by single employees, followed by 28 percent in
own departments. Only 18 percent of the members of this group stated that futures studies are
an integral part of the planning process or that external consultants (17 percent) are brought in.
The results further revealed that futures studies are carried out by 56 percent in departments
such as strategy, planning, corporate development or marketing and only 23 percent of them in
technology focused departments.
For analyzing the status-quo in corporations it is important to evaluate the acceptance of futures
studies. The Delphi study suggests that the acceptance of futures studies in companies is on
the rise: 71 percent of the members of the panel agreed with this statement. Some panellists
also mentioned that futures studies have already won acceptance in their company and that the
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approval rose when results were presented which were for instance of use for the planning
department and where futures studies could relate to concrete business questions. Only 9
percent stated that the acceptance is declining.
4.2 Focusing on the methods of futures studies
The majority (94 percent) of the panellists agreed that the importance of thinking about the
future will rise and that futures studies can be of help. This result underlines the need to think
about the future in a strategic context. This is widely accepted among the members of the panel
and futures studies is perceived as being of help in this process. In figure 3 the results are
displayed which concern the question which methods can lead to a rise in interest in the future,
considering the answers of the entire panel. In contrast, in figure 4 the results are displayed
concerning which methods of futures studies will experience a rise in interest in the corporations
(specific) of the group of managers. Therefore figure 4 displays only those answers of the group
of managers concerning their own corporation and figure 3 displays the opinion of the entire
panel on the future development of the various methods in corporations in general.
Figure 3:
Figure 4:
Combining the positive answers (“strongly agree” and “agree”) one can conclude that the
methods of environmental scanning, trend monitoring, trend research und strategic early
warning (86 percent) and the scenario technique (83 percent) are most likely to experience a
boost in interest in the future. The lowest figures were received by the Delphi technique (48
percent) and simulation und gaming (47 percent). Figures 3 and 4 display that the group of
managers came to nearly the same conclusions as the entire panel. It is significant however,
that in this group the high amount of neutral answers is an indicator that several methods of
futures studies are not known to corporate managers. Also it can be concluded that there is
some scepticism in the group of managers when it comes to using these methods in their own
corporations.
4.3 What future studies needs to accomplish
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After considering the potential of various methods of futures studies, it is important to stress
which methods need to be improved and what can be done to further their importance in
management.
The three methods which were mentioned most frequently in the Delphi study as those methods
which need to be improved, were the scenario technique, quantitative forecasting and strategic
early warning. Various panellists stated that it would be less important to develop new methods
but better to implement those existing more successfully, to get them to work better in practise.
The scenario technique in particular should be more strongly integrated into strategic planning
and should also be designed for the use in smaller corporations. Stressing the issue of
implementation: panellist expressed the view that it is essential for futures studies, that the
results of such activities are adaptable for the specific needs of a corporation and to meet their
requirements.
Focusing on these requirements the panellists were asked to name the questions which will be
of importance in the future. The answers were so diverse that it would have been illogical to
cluster them. However, it underlines that before applying a method of futures studies, it is
important to analyze the corporation and its requirements very carefully in order to set up an
exercise which is designed to the particular demands of an organization.
The methods which received the most credit from the panel, are those concerned with detecting
change in the organisations environment ahead of time: environmental scanning, trend research
and strategic early warning. This implies that it is essential to understand and detect those
changes underway, laying the foundation and then start thinking about the future. This aspect
underlines the importance of differentiating in the field of futures studies among those methods
which are concerned with detecting change in an organizational environment, such as
environmental scanning or strategic early warning, and those methods which are designed to
think creatively about the future, applying the scenario technique or brain storming for instance
[55].
The results of Delphi study also pointed out that futures studies need to achieve a rise in
acceptance. That they should be kept simple, less time consuming, less academic and easier to
integrate and implement into corporate processes. Those statements fit well with the demand
from the field of futures studies that they should be creditable, expressing the need to
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differentiate from crystal ball gazing and journalistic trend research. Even more strongly
expressed, was the concern that futures studies lacks measurability.
The results of the Delphi suggest that one of the most important issues is to recognize its
implementation. The study suggests, that the need to use futures studies is accepted, but that
the difficulties and problems in using them impede a further rise in acceptance. The recognition
of futures studies is related to the extent to which the results are adaptable and are useful. One
major concern of the panel is that the implementation of futures studies should be less
complicated and that the contents need to be designed to fit the demands and requirements of
those who are supposed to work with it.
4.4 More results of the Delphi study
Other issues in this study included the image of futures studies, standards and further
development of the field. The opinion was expressed several times that futures studies should
focus less on prediction and more on detecting changes in the environment of an organization
in order to develop robust organizations. The term futures studies has been subject to criticism
itself; some favoured the term foresight instead. In promoting a better image of futures studies
the necessity was expressed to demonstrate the relevance and to work against the negative
image.
A majority of the panel agreed that corporations will rely more on external futurists to deal with
future related questions. 20 percent of the panellists were undecided on this question. It was
agreed that futures studies will be carried out as an ongoing process in corporations opposed to
single activities. This might not only imply a shift from exercises to processes but it is
recognized also as another approach towards consulting. One member commented that one
should be sceptical of the agreements on these answers, since in times of “quick-wins” the
implementation of long-term processes might be quite a challenge. 69 percent of the panel
agreed that a chair in futures studies at a German university would be helpful.
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5. Conclusion
A review of the rare literature on the future of futures studies [56,57,58,59,5,60] points to the
fact that the results of this Delphi study are not entirely surprising. Two concerns are again and
again expressed: that future studies need further improvement and that there is a need for
integration of the methods of futures studies as a holistic approach, designed towards the
special needs of organizations. The criticism of the scenario technique, in particular concerning
the knowledge base, in the literature [61,62] is absent in the results of this Delphi study. But
since the scenario technique has been identified as a method in the Delphi study which needs
further development, it could be argued that looking more closely at the knowledge base could
be very rewarding to improve this method. The issue of measurability is missing in the literature.
Certainly, the argument can be made, that dealing with the future implies dealing with
immeasurable phenomena. But this seems to be an issue which should be addressed and
which should not be set aside too easily.
The Delphi study argues that futures studies have a foundation in management, at least in
German corporations and in their management. This study underlines the importance of further
improvement of environmental scanning, trend research, trend monitoring, strategic early
warning and the scenario technique. Referring to methods which are concerned with creating
alternative pictures of the future and which are also concerned with detecting change in an
organizational environment and keeping track of these changes and eventually reacting
strategically to them. The message behind this selection of methods is that the need to prepare
a company to deal with the future is understood and that simple predictions or forecasts are
avoided. This in return is a good indication of the acceptance of futures studies in German
corporations.
The biggest challenge in developing futures studies lies in the improvement to implement its
methods in corporations. While the results of the Delphi study do not suggest that new methods
are needed, implementation was described as the major concern. The importance of this issue
is also reflected in the results of the study. No clear picture could be derived from the study if
futures studies should be carried out internally or externally, or as a combination of both.
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The key to further acceptance of future studies is to improve the implementation in such a
manner that the outcome of these activities match the demands of the potential recipients and
that the results are adaptable. This discussion marks the future research question: how to
implement futures studies, how to apply them and how to understand the organizational and
cognitive challenges. The question needs to be raised how much the organization or rather the
corporate culture needs to be changed in order to deal with methods which tend to deliver
uncertain results [63].
The Delphi study was able to prove the potential of futures studies in German corporations.
With 84 members of the panel in the first round and 64 in the second round, this Delphi study
captured a wide variety of opinions and provided an insight into essential issues: the status-quo
of future studies in management in German corporations and the future of futures studies in
German corporations and their management. Futures studies are highly regarded in
management but the scepticism described in the study has proven that the field of futures
studies needs to be developed further.
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Figure captions
Figure 1:
Title: Group proportions
Description: The figure displays the relative group proportions among the members of the panel
of the Delphi study.
Figure 2:
Title: Methods being used
Description: The figure displays the answers provided to the question which methods of futures
studies have been used in the past in the corporations of the group of corporate managers
Figure 3:
Title: Methods which importance will increase (in general)
Description: This figure displays the opinions of the members of the entire panel concerning
which method of futures studies are likely to experience a rise of importance in general.
Figure 4:
Title: Methods which importance will increase (specific)
Description: This figure displays only the opinions of the group of corporate mangers concerning
which methods of future studies are likely to experience an increase in their specific
corporations.
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Figure 1:
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Figure 2:
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Figure 3:
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Figure 4: