assessing consequences

“ Building Strong “

Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions

Assessing Consequences

Campaign Goal 2aRisk Technology Workshops

Campaign Goal 2aRisk Technology Workshops



Adverse Consequences

• Sources of adverse outcomes of a uncertain event or sequence of events– Economic

• Direct--NED (traditional benefit-cost values)• Indirect--RED (impacts of event on regional

and national economy, e.g., income, employment, competitiveness)

– Human health and safety– Environment– Social, cultural, historical



Adverse Consequences (cont.)

– Failure to meet scheduled completion• Disappointed sponsor• Foregone benefits• Increased cost

– Failure to realize outcomes as intended• The “as planned” outcome is not realized

– Economic benefits– Environment outputs

– Cost overruns• 902 bust--reauthorization



Opportunities for Gains

• Examples– Economic benefits realized– Economic costs avoided– Acres of wetlands restored– Lives saved



Consequences

• Predictive models useful to quantify but not always necessary– Models problematic for some consequences

• Human health and safety• Social and cultural

• Models and evaluation approaches frequently used to estimate adverse consequences for hazards and potential for gains.



Economic Analysis

• Need to predict economic consequences part of risk

• Requirements, approach, and models depend on project purposes

• NED benefits from an Federal investment arise from– Reduction in costs– Increases in output



FDR Economic Models

• Flood Damage Reduction– HEC-FDA – engineering-economic model– Estimates stage-damage

• Inventory of damageable property• Relationships describing water damage

susceptibility– Incorporates limited risk of levee failure



FDR Economic Data

• Data requirements similar to feasibility study– Property inventory

• Value• First floor elevation• Location• Occupancy type

– Include infrastructure and vehicles– Depth-damage by occupancy type– Uncertainty



0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

-5 0 5 10 15 20

Stage NAVD88 (2004.65)

Dir

ect

Eco

no

mic

Lo

sses

($m

il.)

Single Family Residential

Mulitfamily Residential

Manufactured Housing

Commercial

Industrial

Public

Vehicles

Total

Katrina

Orleans Metro 5: Elevation - Flood Damage (mean values)



Sometimes Ignored Direct Economic Consequence

•Infrastructure– Roads, Pavements & Bridges $1.05 to $1.58 bil.– Railroad Line Access $45 to $60 mil.– Airport Facilities $65 to $73 mil.– Electrical Distribution & Transmission Grid $1.1 to $1.4 bil.– Gas Distribution $490 to $515 mil. – Drainage, Sewage, & Potable Water Services $510 to $620 mil.– Telecommunications Networks $340 to $380 mil.– Public Transit Vehicles and Equipment $690 to $760 mil.– Waterborne Navigation $140 to $170 mil.

Total $4.4 to 5.6 Billion



Inland Navigation Economic Models

• Inland Navigation– WAM, TC/EQ, NavSym, LCLM, LockSym, ORNIM,

NaSS (indevelopment)– Estimate NED values of improvements– Some explicitly incorporate multiple outage type

probabilities• Repair cost and time

– Some consider locks in system– Problem of shipper response to unplanned

outage• Wait in queue, delay, divert, change mode• Each has its own cost



Inland Navigation Economic Data

• Data requirements similar to feasibility study– Traffic– Commodities– Types of vessels– Transportation cost savings– Frequency of traffic– Unplanned outage probability– Repair time– Repair cost– Post repair unplanned outage probability– Pre and post repair O&M– Post-rehabilitation probability of unplanned outage



Coastal Navigation Economic Models

• Coastal Navigation– Risk issues typically channel dimensions

related to sedimentation and navigation structures

• Jetties and breakwaters– HarborSym-traffic model

• No explicit channel dimension reliability– Individual application spreadsheets



Coastal Navigation Economic Data

• Data requirements similar to feasibility study– Traffic– Commodities– Types of vessels– Transportation cost savings– Frequency of traffic– Channel dimensions probability– Structure failure– Dredging time– Dredging cost– Post repair unplanned outage probability– Pre and post repair O&M– Post-rehabilitation probability of unplanned outage



Hydropower Economic Models

• Hydropower– Hydro-Repair– NWP model– Estimate costs of unplanned outages and

benefits of major rehabilitation in life-cycle framework



Hydropower Economic Data

• Data requirements similar to feasibility study– Energy value– Capacity value– Existing and future unplanned outage probability– Repair cost and time– Post repair unplanned outage probability– Pre and post repair O&M– Rehabilitation costs– Post-rehabilitation probability of unplanned outage



Other Economic Consequence Categories

• Recreation• M&I Water supply• Agricultural water supply



Take Away on Quantifying NED Economic Consequences

• Many models exist• Theory well developed• Some models have capability to include

uncertainty in variable and parameters– Allows quantifying uncertainty in outcomes



Indirect Economic Consequences

• Objective– Estimate local/regional economic impacts of

adverse consequences from a multi-regional national economic and demographic model accounting for:

• Disruptions to lives and livelihoods• Inherent resiliencies in economy

– Examine changes in structure of regional economy from pre-event levels

• Time paths of recovery• Location decisions by households and businesses



Example of Indirect Economic Consequences from Katrina

• Approach– Summary statistics examine general market outcomes

• Population recovery

• Capital formation

• Labor market recovery

U.S. Gross Domestic Product

4.1

1.7

4.8

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

3rd Qtr/05 4th Qtr/05 1st Qtr/06

GDP growth

Katrina



Example from Katrina:Forecast for New Orleans 5-parish region: Employment (1,000’s)

500

550

600

650

700

750

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

(th

ou

san

ds)

Post Katrina II

Post Katrina I

Pre-Katrina

Katrina



450

470

490

510

530

550

570

590

610

630

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Employment in New Orleans MSA in '000's



Health and Safety Consequences

Human Health• Describe full range of specific exposures to

source of risk• Describe potential physical & mental health

effects • Describe other health effects that can be

expected in near or longer term based on empirical studies



Potential Loss of Life

• Need predictive modeling of LOL• Used extensively in dam safety evaluations• Corps is modeling for dam and levee safety

programs• Model in development

– LIFESim--a spatially distributed, dynamic simulation model with resolution of population at census block level



USACE Life Loss Estimation Methods

• Dam Specific– Modified USBR Method

• Screening - Minimal resource requirement– HEC-FIA

• Screening validation, issue evaluation and periodic assessments - Moderate resource requirement

– LifeSim • Support modification studies –

Large resource requirement

• Levee Specific– Simplified Jonkman’s Method

• Screening - Minimal resource requirement

Scalable methods – effort from one applicable to more rigorous method



Life Loss Estimation – Basic Approach

• Initial distribution of people• Redistribution of people

– Warning and response– Evacuation potential– Shelter provided by final location

• Flood characteristics– Arrival time, depth, velocity, rate-of-rise



Example Results from Katrina: Stage-Potential Fatalities (Mean & 90% CI) for St. Bernard Parish Sub-basin 1

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

Flood Water Elevation Nav88(2004.65)

Est

imat

ed F

atal

itie

s



Environmental Consequences

• Predict adverse or beneficial consequences to ecological resources

• Focus on ecological resource condition as indicators of environmental condition and consequences – Riparian habitats– Fisheries– Wildlife– Pest species– Special status species—threatened and

endangered



MAXIMUM LEAD CONCENTRATIONS ADDED TO SEDIMENTS BY BASELINE WATER PUMPING

1.4 mg/kg

7.0 mg/kg

MAXIMUM LEAD CONCENTRATIONS ADDED TO SEDIMENTS BY ACTUAL WATER PUMPING

CONTAMINANTS MODEL RESULTS FOR LEAD IN SEDIMENTS

SEDIMENT MEAN

Pre-Katrina=17.5 mg/kg Post katrina=25.3mg/kg



Restoration Failure



Social, Cultural and Historic Consequences

• Prediction of adverse consequence difficult• Data

• Demographic Data• Qualitative Data

– Timeframes– Immediately Before Event– Short-term– Long-term

• Scope– Locally

• Direct impact– Regionally

• Surrounding area– Nationally for large events



Social, Cultural and Historic Consequences

Methodology– Units of Analysis

• Neighborhoods• Communities• Social Institutions (schools, health care)

– Data • Existing Sources • Observational Data to Support short-term and long-

term estimates



Example from Katrina: Social, Cultural and Historic Consequences

Parish 2004

March ’06

(estimate)

Jan ’08

(estimate)

Jefferson 449,288 368,435 444,655

Orleans 444,515 181,400 336,644

Plaquemines 26, 757 17,567 21,276

St Bernard 67,229 14,015 37,722

St Charles 50,073 51,314 51,547

St Tammany 191,268 206,204 228,456

Total 1,229,130 838,935 1,120,300

Population Estimates

assessing consequences

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