aspo workshop uppsala the assessment and importance of oil depletion by c.j.campbell
TRANSCRIPT
Welcome
We have come a long way in a year
“Let Uppsala be to Oil Depletion what Kyoto is to Climate Change”
- and a good deal better
Thanks to Professor Aleklett
Thanks to Professor Wellmer
Welcome too to Sarah Astor from ODAC in London
Three Missions for ASPO
1. To study the endowment of oil and gas in Nature
2. To model depletion, taking into account economics, technology & politics
3. To raise awareness of this critical subject and the consequences for Mankind
The challenges are great, but we have made good progress
A Geological Starting Point
Geology is the bedrock of this subject
A short introduction to petroleum geology sets the scene for our debate
The Geological Origins of Oil
A few brief epochs of extreme global warming gave the bulk of the world’s oil
Algal blooms gave organic matter, which was locally preserved in stagnant troughs
It was converted to oil and gas on burial
The processes are well understood.
Oceanic Anoxic Events
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Oil
& G
as G
bo
e
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Million Years
Global Warming
Continental break-up
What a Reservoir looks like
Oil fills the pore-space between the grains of sand, which are often coated in a film of water. It has to flow through these constrictions.
OIL
ConclusionKnowledge of petroleum geology has
advanced greatly
The world has been intensively exploredThe more promising areas were investigated first
The larger fields were also found first, being too large to miss
The record of the past points to declining future discovery
Understanding Depletion
Understanding depletion is simple
Think of an Irish pubThe glass starts full and ends empty
There are only so many more drinks to closing time
It’s the same with oilWe have to find the bar before we can drink
what’s in it
Peaks : the eternal pattern
Peak
Discovery Production
US-48 1930 - 40 years - 1970
N.Sea 1973 - 28 years - 2001
World 1964 - 40-50 yrs - 2005-10
Peak comes at about the midpoint of depletion
But unreliable data obstruct forecasting
The Growing Gapbetween Discovery and Consumption
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Gb,
yea
r
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Wild
cats
(x10
00)
Drilling moredoes not help
Simple plumbing- draining the tanks
140 Yet-to-Find
875 Produced1760 DISCOVERED
885 Remaining
?Filling at 6/yr
Emptying at 23/yr
One in - four out
Full or empty ?
Surprise
Billion barrels
Distribution of OilConventional Oil
-250 -150 -50 50 150 250 350 450 550
ME Gulf
Eurasia
N. America
L. America
Africa
W. Europe
East
ME.Other
Produced
Reserves
Yet-to-Find
All Hydrocarbons2002 Base Case Scenario
0
10
20
30
40
50
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Pro
du
cti
on
, G
bo
e/a
Non-con Gas
Gas
NGLs
Polar Oil
Deep Water
Heavy
Conventional
All boundaries fuzzy
Europe’s predicamentThe decline of the N.Sea
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Pro
du
ctio
n k
b/d
0
2
4
6
8
10
Dis
cov
ery
Gb
Gas is different
Gas has a higher molecular mobility
More is recovered
It depletes differently witha long plateau set by infrastructure
an abrupt end
Difficult to model
Also provides liquids
Flawed Economics
Economic theory was built in the Industrial Revolution, 200 years ago
Man was perceived Master of his Environment in a world of perpetual growth & prosperity
The relationship has changed due to more people
resource depletion
We need new economic principles to match
Some practical proposals
ASPO needs to adopt - and firmly adopt - a model of depletion, cutting through all the confusion
It needs a simple one that everyone can understand
It needs to shift the onus onto those with counter views or motives to justify their position with facts and detailed numbers
A simple model
Let’s talk only of production avoiding confusing reserve definitions1. Past production
2 Future productiona) based on current wells = Proved Reserves
b) from known fields = Proved & Probable Reserves
c) from new fields = yet-to-find
3. Total (to a certain date)
Let’s divide the work
Let’s divide up the countries of the world so that each ASPO member need be responsible for only a few.
We can start with what we have and let members audit the results, with the help of their governments or national oil companies, who may co-operate