asml holding n.v. · 2019-12-16 · emea 44-20-7772-5454 asml holding n.v. update to credit...

11
CORPORATES CREDIT OPINION 16 December 2019 Update RATINGS ASML Holding N.V. Domicile Netherlands Long Term Rating A3 Type Senior Unsecured - Dom Curr Outlook Stable Please see the ratings section at the end of this report for more information. The ratings and outlook shown reflect information as of the publication date. Contacts Stephan Wulf +49.69.70730.856 VP-Senior Analyst [email protected] Svitlana Ukrayinets +49.69.70730.920 Associate Analyst [email protected] CLIENT SERVICES Americas 1-212-553-1653 Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077 Japan 81-3-5408-4100 EMEA 44-20-7772-5454 ASML Holding N.V. Update to credit analysis Summary ASML Holding N.V. 's (ASML) A3 senior unsecured ratings are supported by (1) the company's unique position relative to other semiconductor equipment companies, given its market dominance in lithography (with a revenue market share of above 80%) and strong collaboration with its customers, illustrated by its high adjusted EBITDA margins, consistently within 25%-33% over the last five years; (2) strong semiconductor equipment market dynamics, supported by the broad-based demand for semiconductors and the need for more advanced lithography as technology process nodes and chip design complexity advance; (3) the company's consistently positive free cash flow (FCF) generation; and (4) its track record of prudent financial policies, including the maintenance of a cash balance of €2.0 billion-€2.5 billion, which is likely to continue to support its strong credit metrics. ASML's A3 rating also takes into account (1) the technological risks related to the next- generation extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and EUV high-numerical aperture (NA) lithography technology; (2) its customer and supplier concentration, mitigated to some extent by its long-standing relationships and closely aligned production plans; and (3) the inherent industry volatility, especially in the memory segment, mitigated to some degree by a lean and flexible operating model, which should help contain the adverse impact on the company's profitability and cash flow generation from future downturns in the semiconductor industry. Exhibit 1 Operating performance is likely to remain strong, supported by the adoption of EUV in high- volume manufacturing -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e €, billions Revenue EBITDA Free Cash Flow (after dividend) FCF (Moody's definition after dividend) in 2019 affected by a one-off effect because of the implementation of interim dividend. Forecast represents Moody's forward view, not the view of the issuer, and unless noted in the text, does not incorporate significant acquisitions and divestitures. Sources: Moody’s Financial Metrics™ and Moody’s estimates

Upload: others

Post on 06-Aug-2020

9 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: ASML Holding N.V. · 2019-12-16 · EMEA 44-20-7772-5454 ASML Holding N.V. Update to credit analysis Summary ASML Holding N.V.'s (ASML) A3 senior unsecured ratings are supported by

CORPORATES

CREDIT OPINION16 December 2019

Update

RATINGS

ASML Holding N.V.Domicile Netherlands

Long Term Rating A3

Type Senior Unsecured -Dom Curr

Outlook Stable

Please see the ratings section at the end of this reportfor more information. The ratings and outlook shownreflect information as of the publication date.

Contacts

Stephan Wulf +49.69.70730.856VP-Senior [email protected]

Svitlana Ukrayinets +49.69.70730.920Associate [email protected]

CLIENT SERVICES

Americas 1-212-553-1653

Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077

Japan 81-3-5408-4100

EMEA 44-20-7772-5454

ASML Holding N.V.Update to credit analysis

SummaryASML Holding N.V.'s (ASML) A3 senior unsecured ratings are supported by (1) the company'sunique position relative to other semiconductor equipment companies, given its marketdominance in lithography (with a revenue market share of above 80%) and strongcollaboration with its customers, illustrated by its high adjusted EBITDA margins, consistentlywithin 25%-33% over the last five years; (2) strong semiconductor equipment marketdynamics, supported by the broad-based demand for semiconductors and the need for moreadvanced lithography as technology process nodes and chip design complexity advance; (3)the company's consistently positive free cash flow (FCF) generation; and (4) its track recordof prudent financial policies, including the maintenance of a cash balance of €2.0 billion-€2.5billion, which is likely to continue to support its strong credit metrics.

ASML's A3 rating also takes into account (1) the technological risks related to the next-generation extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and EUV high-numerical aperture (NA) lithographytechnology; (2) its customer and supplier concentration, mitigated to some extent by itslong-standing relationships and closely aligned production plans; and (3) the inherentindustry volatility, especially in the memory segment, mitigated to some degree by alean and flexible operating model, which should help contain the adverse impact onthe company's profitability and cash flow generation from future downturns in thesemiconductor industry.

Exhibit 1

Operating performance is likely to remain strong, supported by the adoption of EUV in high-volume manufacturing

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e

€,

billio

ns

Revenue EBITDA Free Cash Flow (after dividend)

FCF (Moody's definition after dividend) in 2019 affected by a one-off effect because of the implementation of interim dividend.Forecast represents Moody's forward view, not the view of the issuer, and unless noted in the text, does not incorporatesignificant acquisitions and divestitures.Sources: Moody’s Financial Metrics™ and Moody’s estimates

Page 2: ASML Holding N.V. · 2019-12-16 · EMEA 44-20-7772-5454 ASML Holding N.V. Update to credit analysis Summary ASML Holding N.V.'s (ASML) A3 senior unsecured ratings are supported by

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES

Credit strengths

» Unique position relative to other semiconductor equipment companies, given its market dominance in lithography (with a revenuemarket share of above 80%) and strong collaboration with its customers

» Strong semiconductor equipment market dynamics, supporting future earnings and FCF generation, even if temporarily muted byimplementation of interim dividend and high EUV related capex

» Track record of prudent financial policies, including the public commitment to maintain a cash balance of €2.0 billion-€2.5 billion,which is likely to continue to support its strong credit metrics (adjusted debt/EBITDA of 1.1x for the 12 months ended 30 September2019)

Credit challenges

» Volatility in demand for lithography equipment, mitigated to some degree by a flexible operating cost structure, with a substantialpart of the cost of goods sold and R&D being outsourced

» Customer and supplier concentration, mitigated to some extent by its long-standing relationships and closely aligned productionplans

» Technological risks related to the next-generation EUV and EUV high-NA lithography technology

Rating outlookThe stable outlook on ASML's A3 rating reflects our expectation that the company will maintain its strong market position, theconsistent execution of its product road map (including EUV technology) and its financial discipline through industry cycles.

Factors that could lead to an upgrade

» An upgrade would require the company to make further progress in its product road map, sustaining strong operating performanceover the cycle.

» We would also expect further diversification of the company's product range, including an increased metrology and inspectionpresence, but also a significant increase in net recurring service revenue. We believe this should allow for reduced volatility in theevent of a downturn.

Factors that could lead to a downgrade

» A negative rating action is likely in the event that the company relaxes its financial policy and/or if successive quarterly materialnegative FCFs (including dividend payments) lead to a reduction in cash balances below €2.0 billion or a deterioration in adjustedgross leverage, sustainably in excess of 2.0x.

» Any evidence that the company is losing market share, for instance, because of emerging alternative technologies, may also exertdownward pressure on the rating.

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page onwww.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

2 16 December 2019 ASML Holding N.V.: Update to credit analysis

Page 3: ASML Holding N.V. · 2019-12-16 · EMEA 44-20-7772-5454 ASML Holding N.V. Update to credit analysis Summary ASML Holding N.V.'s (ASML) A3 senior unsecured ratings are supported by

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES

Key indicators

Exhibit 2

ASML Holding N.V.

12/31/2014 12/31/2015 12/31/2016 12/31/2017 12/31/2018 LTM Q3-19

Revenue (USD Billion) $7.8 $7.0 $7.5 $10.1 $12.9 $12.3

Free Cash Flow (USD Billion) $0.5 $1.5 $1.0 $1.1 $2.2 -$0.4

EBITDA Margin 27.3% 30.5% 31.4% 32.7% 33.0% 27.4%

Debt / EBITDA 0.7x 0.6x 1.6x 1.1x 0.9x 1.1x

EBIT / Interest Expense 53.5x 51.4x 41.3x 41.0x 69.9x 56.5x

Cash / Debt 237.8% 293.5% 119.7% 105.1% 128.9% 63.3%

FCF / Debt 34.2% 116.3% 26.4% 30.2% 59.6% -9.9%

FCF (Moody's definition after dividend) for the 12 months ended September 2019 is negative due to skewed towards Q4 2019 cash flow generation. We expect positive FCF generation inthe next 12-18 months.All ratios are based on 'Adjusted' financial data and incorporate Moody's Global Standard Adjustments for Non-Financial Corporations.Source: Moody's Financial Metrics™

ProfileASML Holding N.V. (ASML) is the world's leading provider of lithography systems for the semiconductor industry in terms of revenue.It manufactures complex machines that are critical to the leading-edge production of integrated circuits. Headquartered in Veldhoven,the Netherlands, ASML generated revenue of €10.9 billion for the 12 months ended 30 September 2019.

Exhibit 3

Sales split by end use for the first nine months of 2019

Memory24%

Foundry51%

Installed Base Management25%

Source: Company financials

Detailed credit considerationsUnique position relative to other semiconductor companies, given its market dominance in lithography equipment andstrong collaboration with its customersASML dominates the global market for lithography equipment used in the semiconductor industry, with an overall market share ofabout 80%. This market share has increased over the past few years and is likely to remain high because of the company's leading-edge technology. ASML has progressively outpaced its sizeable competitors. Both Nikon Corporation and Canon Inc. (A3 negative) lackthe necessary volume in lithography to invest in R&D as much as ASML does. The company's market share is around 90% in the moretechnologically advanced ArF Immersion business and 100% in EUV.

Currently, there are limited viable alternatives to ASML's high-end lithography solutions for high-volume manufacturing that arecapable of providing similar shrink capability and yields. The company is the sole supplier of next-generation EUV lithographytechnology, which facilitates the production of more complex chips and equally reduces customers' unit production costs, reinforcingthe continuation of Moore's law. ASML's customers, such as Intel Corporation (A1 stable), Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. (Aa3 stable)

3 16 December 2019 ASML Holding N.V.: Update to credit analysis

Page 4: ASML Holding N.V. · 2019-12-16 · EMEA 44-20-7772-5454 ASML Holding N.V. Update to credit analysis Summary ASML Holding N.V.'s (ASML) A3 senior unsecured ratings are supported by

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES

and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (Aa3 stable), contributed around €1.4 billion in cash to ASML's R&D under theframework of the Customer Co-Investment Programme over 2013-17 and invested an aggregate 23% equity stake in ASML in 2012 tosupport the investment in EUV technology. As the industry moved towards the commercial rollout of EUV, the customers have reducedtheir equity stakes in ASML; however, they continue to invest in the entire ecosystem involved in building the EUV infrastructure.

In recent years, the company has made strategic acquisitions and participations, which are crucial to successfully execute its productroad map well beyond 2020 and further solidify its market position. The takeover of the light source maker Cymer in 2013 was crucialfor EUV development. It cleared patent issues and paved the way for improvements in the power of the light sources, which was amajor roadblock for increasing the production speed for EUV up to its commercially viable levels. In addition, ASML invested in a24.9% minority stake, or €1.0 billion, in optical lenses maker Carl Zeiss SMT. The transaction closed in 2017, and ASML is committed tosupporting SMT's R&D and capital spending of about €1.230 million over six years. This was an important strategic step to contributeto the development of higher-NA optical systems required for the next generation of EUV lithography, expected to be rolled out after2020.

Moreover, we favourably view the broadening of the company's product offering into metrology and inspection tools. These toolsgenerate higher margins because of their higher software content and enhancement of customer yields. The acquisition of Taiwan-based Hermes Microvision, Inc. (HMI) in 2016 strengthened ASML's metrology and inspection offering. ASML uses HMI’s E-beammetrology and inspection solutions as an add-on to its existing solutions, allowing its customers to improve process control duringthe lithography process and, hence, increase manufacturing yields, as the semiconductor industry moves towards smaller sub-10-nanometer technology nodes and three-dimensional integrated circuits. This requires tighter control of the manufacturing process.

Operating performance is likely to remain strong, supported by the adoption of EUV for high-volume manufacturingASML continued to demonstrate solid operating performance in the first nine months of 2019 because of increased demand in logic,as the industry continues to transition to more advanced nodes, which compensated for the softer memory market. For the full-year2019, the company expects an annual top-line growth of around 7% and a reported gross margin of around 45%, slightly down from46% in 2018 because of the initial margin-dilutive effect of a higher volume of EUV shipments.

The healthy demand from ASML's customers is driven by the company's progress in the execution of its product road map, includingEUV technology, which has entered the high-volume manufacturing stage in 2019. During the first nine months of 2019, ASML shipped18 EUV tools and received 36 orders for EUV shipments, which indicate the increased customer confidence in EUV technology. For2020, ASML has a production plan of 35 EUV systems and guides towards an improved gross margin profile of EUV tools because ofincreased efficiencies in manufacturing and tool efficiency improvements as well as higher EUV service sales.

Exhibit 4

Sales by segment

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD Sep 19

€ m

illion

s

Memory Foundry Installed Base Management

Source: Company financials

Despite a temporary pullback of memory capital spending this year, we continue to expect healthy annual growth rates for thesemiconductor equipment market in the mid-single digits in percentage terms over the medium term, supported by the broad-baseddemand for semiconductors and the increasing complexity of chip design. At the same time, new leading-edge nodes with increased

4 16 December 2019 ASML Holding N.V.: Update to credit analysis

Page 5: ASML Holding N.V. · 2019-12-16 · EMEA 44-20-7772-5454 ASML Holding N.V. Update to credit analysis Summary ASML Holding N.V.'s (ASML) A3 senior unsecured ratings are supported by

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES

lithography intensity should overproportionally drive the demand for ASML's litho systems. Hence, we project that ASML will continueto grow its revenue and profitability and its adjusted debt/EBITDA will remain around 1.0x over the next 12-18 months.

Track record of commitment to prudent financial policies, which is likely to continue to support its strong credit metricsASML has consistently demonstrated its commitment to maintaining conservative financial policies. Its gross leverage has beensustainably below 1.0x since 2010, and the company has been in a position of net cash as of fiscal year-end, even in 2009, whenrevenue shrank to €1.6 billion from a peak of €3.7 billion in 2007. However, the debt raised to finance a portion of the HMI acquisitionand a 24.9% minority stake in Carl Zeiss SMT increased ASML's adjusted leverage to 1.6x as of December 2016 from its adjusted debt/EBITDA of 0.6x as of December 2015. Nevertheless, the company deleveraged swiftly to around 0.9x adjusted debt/EBITDA in 2018because of strong business performance, and we expect its adjusted leverage to decline further to remain at around 1.0x in 2019.

Exhibit 5

ASML's adjusted leverage, and cash and cash balances

0.5x 0.7x1.4x

16.8x

0.5x 0.4x 0.6x 0.9x 0.7x 0.6x1.6x

1.1x 0.9x

-2.0x

2.0x

4.0x

6.0x

8.0x

10.0x

12.0x

14.0x

16.0x

18.0x

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E

Cash & Cash Equivalents Debt / EBITDA

Sources: Moody’s Financial Metrics™ and Moody’s estimates

The company is committed to its conservative financing policy, illustrated by, among others, its commitment to maintaining asufficient liquidity buffer in the form of a minimum gross cash balance of €2.0 billion-€2.5 billion plus a €700 million undrawnrevolving credit facility. The appropriate size of the liquidity buffer is reassessed annually, taking into account multiple factors, such ascapital spending.

In November 2019, ASML revised its capital returns policy to provide for dividend payments on a semiannual basis instead of annually.In addition, the company announced that it does not expect to purchase the full €2.5 billion of shares within the 2018-19 time frame(€1.4 billion worth of shares were purchased through September 2019) and that it will decide on a new share buyback programme in2020. We expect share buybacks and dividends to remain a key feature of ASML's financial strategy; however, we expect the companyto continue to balance shareholder returns within the context of FCF generation, its liquidity targets and the current business outlook,as it has done in the past. This was reflected in ASML pausing its share buyback programme (with a total consideration of €1.5 billionover 2016-17) in light of the acquisition of HMI and the investment in Carl Zeiss SMT.

5 16 December 2019 ASML Holding N.V.: Update to credit analysis

Page 6: ASML Holding N.V. · 2019-12-16 · EMEA 44-20-7772-5454 ASML Holding N.V. Update to credit analysis Summary ASML Holding N.V.'s (ASML) A3 senior unsecured ratings are supported by

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES

Exhibit 6

Historical shareholder returns have been balanced against operating cash flow and liquidity

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

€ b

illio

ns

CFO less capex Dividend + share buyback

Sources: Moody’s Financial Metrics™

Volatility in demand for lithography equipment, mitigated to some degree by operational flexibilityASML is exposed to capital equipment spending of semiconductor device manufacturers. These companies tend to postpone or cancelorders in the weaker parts of the semiconductor cycle, affecting semiconductor equipment OEMs and their suppliers. In 2009, thesemiconductor capital equipment industry experienced a sharp slowdown, resulting in a sharp decline in ASML's revenue (which fell toaround €1.6 billion in 2009 from a peak of €3.7 billion in 2007) and adjusted EBITDA margin (which declined to around 3% in 2009from around 28% in 2007), which, in turn, drove an increase in financial leverage to double digits in percentage terms in 2009. In 2010,revenue recovered as the industry resumed spending. However, as the semiconductor industry has long-term sustainable demandfundamentals, we do not expect future declines in performance to be prolonged because we expect end-customers to defer investmentplans rather than sustainably reduce capital spending. In addition, we expect equipment sales to the semiconductor sector to beless volatile than the historical levels because of the increasing diversification in end-markets (data centre, mobile devices, artificialintelligence, autonomous driving, internet of things and others).

Exhibit 7

ASML's historical revenue development

5%

-22%

-46%

182%

25%

-16%

11% 12% 7% 8%

32%22%

7%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e

€ b

illio

ns

Revenue y-o-y growth (right axis)

Sources: Company reports and Moody's estimates

We also expect ASML's flexible cost structure to allow the company to absorb the impact of a pronounced setback in revenue onits operating performance. With a sharp decline in ASML's revenue and margins in 2009, its FCF was marginally negative at around€90 million (including €86 million of dividend payments) and liquidity remained solid, with cash and cash equivalents amounting to€1.1 billion. A substantial part of its cost of goods systems sold (about 80%) and R&D is outsourced. The company also has flexiblepersonnel schemes. In addition, strong relationships with its major suppliers and the specialised nature of ASML's requirements in termsof lasers and lenses allow it to share the burden of business volatility down the value chain.

6 16 December 2019 ASML Holding N.V.: Update to credit analysis

Page 7: ASML Holding N.V. · 2019-12-16 · EMEA 44-20-7772-5454 ASML Holding N.V. Update to credit analysis Summary ASML Holding N.V.'s (ASML) A3 senior unsecured ratings are supported by

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES

Technological risk related to the next generation of EUV and EUV high-NA lithography technologyEUV technology is likely to reduce the lithography cost of critical layers as the industry moves towards more advanced nodes. For EUVto be used in high-volume manufacturing for memory customers, ASML needs to achieve a number of technological milestones tomeet the required productivity targets. In 2019, ASML continued to make progress on productivity improvement of EUV technologyand shipped its first higher-productivity NXE:3400C systems in Q3 2019 for use in high volume manufacturing. ASML's NXE:3400Ctool has an output of 170 wafers per hour, increasing the system’s productivity by around 35% (compared with its predecessor model,NXE:3400B) and will additionally allow for higher availability (over 90%) because of less maintenance time.

ESG considerationASML has low levels of environmental and social risks, consistent with those of the overall sector. The company’s financial policies areconservative, including low financial leverage and a very good liquidity profile.

Liquidity analysisASML's healthy liquidity buffer is a key credit strength. As of Q3 2019, ASML had cash and cash equivalents of around €2.1 billion, whichincluded liquid short-term investments in respect of deposits and low-risk money-market funds (with tenors greater than three monthsbut less than one year). It also has full access to a €700 million committed credit facility due 2024, with no financial covenants. Thearound €2.1 billion cash balance and Moody's projected funds from operations in excess of €3 billion are more than sufficient toaccommodate dividend payments and share buybacks, as well as working capital and capital spending needs.

Rating methodology and scorecard factorsThe principal methodology used in this rating was our Semiconductor Industry rating methodology, published in July 2018. Thescorecard-indicated outcome based on the company's financials for the 12 months ended September 2019 is Baa3, and the forward-looking view indicates an A3 outcome, which is in line with the assigned rating. We expect an improvement in FCF (after dividends)into positive territory in the next 12-18 months.

Exhibit 8

Rating factorsASML Holding N.V.

Semiconductor Industry Grid [1][2]

Factor 1 : Scale (20%) Measure Score Measure Score

a) Revenue (USD Billion) $12.3 A $11.7 - $13 A

b) Free Cash Flow (USD Billion) -$0.4 Ca $1 - $1.4 A

Factor 2 : Business Profile (20%)

a) Business Profile Baa Baa Baa Baa

Factor 3 : Profitability(5%)

a) EBITDA Margin 27.4% A 28% - 33% A

Factor 4 : Leverage & Coverage (40%)

a) Debt / EBITDA 1.1x A 1x A

b) EBIT / Interest Expense 56.5x Aaa 60x - 80x Aaa

c) Cash / Debt 63.3% Ba 100% - 130% Baa

d) FCF / Debt -9.9% Ca 30% - 40% A

Factor 5 : Financial Policy (15%)

a) Financial Policy A A A A

Rating:

a) Indicated Rating from Grid Baa3 A3

b) Actual Rating Assigned A3

Current

LTM 9/29/2019

Moody's 12-18 Month Forward View

As of 12/3/2019 [3]

[1] All ratios are based on 'Adjusted' financial data and incorporate Moody's Global Standard Adjustments for Non-Financial Corporations.[2] As of 9/29/2019(L); FCF (Moody's definition after dividend) for the 12 months ended September 2019 is negative because of the timing of dividend payment and skewed towards Q42019 cash flow generation.[3] This represents Moody's forward view, not the view of the issuer, and unless noted in the text, does not incorporate significant acquisitions and divestitures.Sources: Moody’s Financial Metrics™ and Moody’s estimate

7 16 December 2019 ASML Holding N.V.: Update to credit analysis

Page 8: ASML Holding N.V. · 2019-12-16 · EMEA 44-20-7772-5454 ASML Holding N.V. Update to credit analysis Summary ASML Holding N.V.'s (ASML) A3 senior unsecured ratings are supported by

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES

Appendix

Exhibit 9

Peer comparisonASML Holding N.V.

(in USD millions)FYE

Dec-17

FYE

Dec-18

LTM

Sep-19

FYE

Jun-18

FYE

Jun-19

LTM

Sep-19

FYE

Oct-17

FYE

Oct-18

LTM

Jul-19

FYE

Jun-18

FYE

Jun-19

LTM

Sep-19

Revenue $10,127 $12,924 $12,327 $11,077 $9,654 $9,489 $14,537 $17,253 $15,161 $4,037 $4,569 $4,889

FCF $1,066 $2,204 -$367 $2,075 $2,194 $1,969 $3,017 $2,560 $2,257 $760 $550 $656

Total Debt $3,755 $3,577 $3,583 $3,247 $5,220 $5,166 $5,614 $6,682 $6,642 $2,697 $3,909 $3,919

Cash + Marketable Sec. $3,949 $4,612 $2,266 $4,950 $5,431 $5,591 $8,419 $5,598 $5,211 $2,880 $1,739 $1,752

EBITDA Margin 32.7% 33.0% 27.4% 32.8% 29.9% 29.9% 29.9% 31.4% 28.0% 40.8% 37.4% 35.9%

EBIT / Int. Exp. 41.0x 69.9x 56.5x 32.8x 21.3x 17.7x 19.3x 19.9x 15.1x 13.3x 11.2x 9.9x

Debt / EBITDA 1.1x 0.9x 1.1x 0.9x 1.8x 1.8x 1.3x 1.2x 1.6x 1.6x 2.3x 2.2x

(Cash + Mkt Sec) / Debt 105.1% 128.9% 63.3% 152.4% 104.0% 108.2% 150.0% 83.8% 78.5% 106.8% 44.5% 44.7%

FCF / Debt 30.2% 59.6% -9.9% 63.9% 42.0% 38.1% 53.7% 38.3% 34.0% 28.2% 14.1% 16.7%

ASML Holding N.V. Lam Research Corp. Applied Materials Inc. KLA-Tencor Corporation

A3 stable A3 Stable A3 Stable Baa1 Stable

Source: Moody’s Financial Metrics™

Exhibit 10

ASML’s historical credit metrics

EUR (millions) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 LTM Q3-19

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue 5,856 6,287 6,795 8,963 10,944 10,926

EBITDA 1,601 1,916 2,131 2,927 3,614 2,991

BALANCE SHEET

Cash & Cash Equivalents 2,754 3,409 4,057 3,288 4,034 2,070

Total Debt 1,158 1,161 3,390 3,127 3,129 3,273

(Cash + Mkt Sec) / Debt 238% 294% 120% 105% 129% 63%

CASH FLOW

Capex = Capital Expenditures 401 413 365 413 677 842

Dividends 268 302 446 517 597 884

Free Cash Flow (FCF) 396 1,350 895 944 1,866 -325

FCF / Debt 34.2% 116.3% 26.4% 30.2% 59.6% -9.9%

PROFITABILITY

% Change in Sales (YoY) 11.6% 7.4% 8.1% 31.9% 22.1% 6.4%

EBITDA Margin % 27.3% 30.5% 31.4% 32.7% 33.0% 27.4%

INTEREST COVERAGE

EBIT / Interest Expense 53.5x 51.4x 41.3x 41.0x 69.9x 56.5x

LEVERAGE

Debt / EBITDA 0.7x 0.6x 1.6x 1.1x 0.9x 1.1x

Source: Moody’s Financial Metrics™

8 16 December 2019 ASML Holding N.V.: Update to credit analysis

Page 9: ASML Holding N.V. · 2019-12-16 · EMEA 44-20-7772-5454 ASML Holding N.V. Update to credit analysis Summary ASML Holding N.V.'s (ASML) A3 senior unsecured ratings are supported by

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES

Exhibit 11

Main adjustments to ASML’s reported EBITDA are operating leases

EUR (millions) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 LTM Q3-19

Total Reported EBITDA 1,561 1,873 2,087 2,870 3,413 2,790

Operating Lease Adjustments 44 45 45 57 70 70

Unusual items 0 0 0 0 131 131

Analyst adjustments -3 -2 -1 0 0 0

Total Adjusted EBITDA 1,601 1,916 2,131 2,927 3,614 2,991

Sources: Moody’s Financial Metrics™

Exhibit 12

Main adjustments to ASML’s reported debt include operating leases and derivatives

EUR (millions) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 LTM Q3-19

Total Reported Debt 1,154 1,130 3,320 3,025 3,027 3,170

Operating Lease Adjustments 132 135 136 114 140 140

Analyst Adjustments -127 -104 -65 -12 -38 -38

Total Adjusted Debt 1,158 1,161 3,390 3,127 3,129 3,273

[1] As of 1 January 2018, ASML has early adopted ASC 842 leases, converting an off-balance-sheet liability into an on-balance-sheet liability.[2] Analyst adjustments relate to fair value of interest rate swaps related to eurobonds.Source: Moody’s Financial Metrics™

Ratings

Exhibit 13

Category Moody's RatingASML HOLDING N.V.

Outlook StableSenior Unsecured -Dom Curr A3

Source: Moody's Investors Service

9 16 December 2019 ASML Holding N.V.: Update to credit analysis

Page 10: ASML Holding N.V. · 2019-12-16 · EMEA 44-20-7772-5454 ASML Holding N.V. Update to credit analysis Summary ASML Holding N.V.'s (ASML) A3 senior unsecured ratings are supported by

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES

© 2019 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All rights reserved.

CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE, INC. AND ITS RATINGS AFFILIATES (“MIS”) ARE MOODY’S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDITRISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES, AND MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS MAY INCLUDE MOODY’S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THERELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES. MOODY’S DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITYMAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT OR IMPAIRMENT. SEEMOODY’S RATING SYMBOLS AND DEFINITIONS PUBLICATION FOR INFORMATION ON THE TYPES OF CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS ADDRESSED BY MOODY’SRATINGS. CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO: LIQUIDITY RISK, MARKET VALUE RISK, OR PRICE VOLATILITY. CREDITRATINGS AND MOODY’S OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT. MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS MAYALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODY’S ANALYTICS, INC. CREDITRATINGS AND MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY’S PUBLICATIONSARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE, SELL, OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES. NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODY’S PUBLICATIONSCOMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR. MOODY’S ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODY’S PUBLICATIONSWITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL, WITH DUE CARE, MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDERCONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE, HOLDING, OR SALE.

MOODY’S CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY RETAIL INVESTORS AND IT WOULD BE RECKLESS AND INAPPROPRIATE FORRETAIL INVESTORS TO USE MOODY’S CREDIT RATINGS OR MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS WHEN MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION. IF IN DOUBT YOU SHOULD CONTACTYOUR FINANCIAL OR OTHER PROFESSIONAL ADVISER. ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY LAW, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, COPYRIGHT LAW,AND NONE OF SUCH INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTEDOR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANYPERSON WITHOUT MOODY’S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT.

CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY ANY PERSON AS A BENCHMARK AS THAT TERM IS DEFINED FOR REGULATORY PURPOSESAND MUST NOT BE USED IN ANY WAY THAT COULD RESULT IN THEM BEING CONSIDERED A BENCHMARK.

All information contained herein is obtained by MOODY’S from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as wellas other factors, however, all information contained herein is provided “AS IS” without warranty of any kind. MOODY'S adopts all necessary measures so that the information ituses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODY'S considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However,MOODY’S is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process or in preparing the Moody’s publications.

To the extent permitted by law, MOODY’S and its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors and suppliers disclaim liability to any person or entity for anyindirect, special, consequential, or incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use anysuch information, even if MOODY’S or any of its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors or suppliers is advised in advance of the possibility of such losses ordamages, including but not limited to: (a) any loss of present or prospective profits or (b) any loss or damage arising where the relevant financial instrument is not the subject of aparticular credit rating assigned by MOODY’S.

To the extent permitted by law, MOODY’S and its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for any direct or compensatorylosses or damages caused to any person or entity, including but not limited to by any negligence (but excluding fraud, willful misconduct or any other type of liability that, for theavoidance of doubt, by law cannot be excluded) on the part of, or any contingency within or beyond the control of, MOODY’S or any of its directors, officers, employees, agents,representatives, licensors or suppliers, arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information.

NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, COMPLETENESS, MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY CREDITRATING OR OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODY’S IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER.

Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody’s Corporation (“MCO”), hereby discloses that most issuers of debt securities (includingcorporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moody’s Investors Service, Inc. have, prior to assignment of any rating,agreed to pay to Moody’s Investors Service, Inc. for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from $1,000 to approximately $2,700,000. MCO and MIS also maintainpolicies and procedures to address the independence of MIS’s ratings and rating processes. Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO andrated entities, and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%, is posted annually atwww.moodys.com under the heading “Investor Relations — Corporate Governance — Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policy.”

Additional terms for Australia only: Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODY’S affiliate, Moody’s InvestorsService Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 and/or Moody’s Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL 383569 (as applicable). This document is intendedto be provided only to “wholesale clients” within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. By continuing to access this document from within Australia, yourepresent to MOODY’S that you are, or are accessing the document as a representative of, a “wholesale client” and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly orindirectly disseminate this document or its contents to “retail clients” within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. MOODY’S credit rating is an opinion as tothe creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer, not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors.

Additional terms for Japan only: Moody's Japan K.K. (“MJKK”) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody's Group Japan G.K., which is wholly-owned by Moody’sOverseas Holdings Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO. Moody’s SF Japan K.K. (“MSFJ”) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of MJKK. MSFJ is not a NationallyRecognized Statistical Rating Organization (“NRSRO”). Therefore, credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings. Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings are assigned by anentity that is not a NRSRO and, consequently, the rated obligation will not qualify for certain types of treatment under U.S. laws. MJKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies registeredwith the Japan Financial Services Agency and their registration numbers are FSA Commissioner (Ratings) No. 2 and 3 respectively.

MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferredstock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have, prior to assignment of any rating, agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for ratings opinions and services rendered by it feesranging from JPY125,000 to approximately JPY250,000,000.

MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements.

REPORT NUMBER 1206015

10 16 December 2019 ASML Holding N.V.: Update to credit analysis

Page 11: ASML Holding N.V. · 2019-12-16 · EMEA 44-20-7772-5454 ASML Holding N.V. Update to credit analysis Summary ASML Holding N.V.'s (ASML) A3 senior unsecured ratings are supported by

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES

CLIENT SERVICES

Americas 1-212-553-1653

Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077

Japan 81-3-5408-4100

EMEA 44-20-7772-5454

11 16 December 2019 ASML Holding N.V.: Update to credit analysis