asian affairs

7/17/2019 Asian Affairs

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India-Pakistan Relations:Does Modi Matter?

Frederic Grare

s the new Indian government has settled in, what will happen to its relations with Pakistan?While some take comfort in the idea that the strong nationalist credentials of the new PrimeMinister could facilitate a peace agreement with Pakistan, others argue that the risk ofcommunal violence created by the Hindutva ideology of the new government could be a

potential impediment to better IndiaPakistan relations !ut the evolution of the bilateral relationshipis unlikely to depend on either of these considerations" it is also unlikely to depend primarily on #ew

$elhi

%#arendra Modi&s decision to invite his Pakistani counterpart, #awa' (harif, to his May )*,

)+-, swearing.in ceremony, along with all the other heads of state or government from the (outh%sian %ssociation for /egional 0ooperation 1(%%/02, was considered a positive gesture on bothsides of the border 3he meeting between the two Prime Ministers was cordial and frank but4to noone&s surprise4not groundbreaking However, the two countries have already interpreted this earlymeeting differently

3he Indian side viewed it as a signal that #ew $elhi was open to resetting relations, but onits own terms, most of which have to do with preventing terrorist attacks from originating in Pakistanor with Pakistani support !y inviting the leaders of all (outh %sian countries to his swearing.inceremony, Modi undoubtedly sei'ed the initiative 3here is, however, little he can or is probablywilling to do unless Pakistan clarifies its own position on the terrorism issue (ubstantive progresswill thus demand much more than friendly political statements

3he Pakistani side welcomed the invitation, but both Islamabad&s initial hesitation and thecomments on the visit from personalities close to the security establishment soon demonstrated that,although Pakistan officially and sincerely favors better relations with India, its security establishmentand parts of the political establishment remain divided on the issue of normali'ing relations with itsneighbor Islamabad can no longer hide its inaction behind the electoral campaign in India or thealleged inability of Indian decision makers to deliver on their own potential commitments %lthough itcannot coerce India toward any specific outcome, the actual decision to normali'e relations willprimarily be Pakistan&s

5ven among (harif&s own constituency, there is no consensus on if, when, or how to moveforward with normali'ation % large part of the problem lies in the difficult civilian.military relationshipwithin Pakistan Pakistan has known four military coups and been under military leadership for mostof its e6istence 5ven when civilians have held power, the military has pulled the strings from behindthe scene in order to retain control over domains they considered to be theirs, like foreign policy It isdoubtful that the Pakistani military entertains the idea of better relations with India for reasonsbeyond the narrowly tactical 3he Pakistani military is currently busy on its Western front, fightinginsurgent groups and terrorism, and is unwilling and incapable to confront India It therefore needsthe civilian government to appease India

3he Pakistani prime minister therefore has a diplomatic opportunity, but it remains to beseen whether he will have the capacity to translate it into a substantial rapprochement with India#awa' (harif and the Pakistani military are caught in a 'ero.sum game of sorts7 (harif is trying toturn a tactical rapprochement with India into a more permanent arrangement 1the nature of which still


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Asian Affairs 57needs to be defined2, but the military is trying desperately to prevent any reset with India fromaffecting any of Pakistan&s territorial claims, ie 8ashmir

!ecause of Pakistan&s dysfunctional civil.military relations, and therefore uncertain politicalfuture, India is left in an essentially reactive role 3he election of a new government may haveelevated India&s resolve to punish Pakistan in case of terrorist attack4#arendra Modi made severalstatements during the electoral campaign to indicate he would not remain passive in the case of aPakistan.supported terrorist attack and could not afford politically to look weak should that occurHowever, this has not increased India&s capacity to coerce its neighbor into any specific outcomeIndia, recogni'ing that the ball is s9uarely in Pakistan&s court, is therefore likely to adopt a :wait andsee; attitude !ut #ew $elhi will have to walk a fine line between ignoring Pakistan 1which it cannot

really afford to do2 and keeping the door to better relations open wide enough to provide a realincentive for Islamabad to adopt meaningful new policies4all without making unilateral concessionsto Pakistan

3hree main issues will prove particularly meaningful for the tra)) billion in )++F+* to E*F> billion in )+>-2, Pakistan has every interest innormali'ing trade relations with India

While the business angle in Pakistan is a significant part of the debate in granting M=#status to India, the issue is primarily a domestic political problem 3he main political parties support(harif&s policy to grant M=# status Meanwhile,


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Asian Affairs 58obli9uely accused the military of obstructing trade normali'ation, asserting that :distrustful Gsecurityagencies& in both India and Pakistan were one of the main two blockages;

%warding the M=# status to India would thus serve the interests of the civilian governmentin that the economy would benefit from free trade with India, but this would only partly satisfy themilitary /awalpindi&s motivation for better interactions with India is real, but limited and essentiallytactical 3his opens some diplomatic and political space that the government could e6ploit andpossibly enlarge, providing it could keep its relations with the military under control !ut a spectacularadvance in trade relations between India and Pakistan is unlikely It would depend primarily onimproving civil.military relations within Pakistan, since the Pakistani military remains the mostinfluential ob


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5$ The Advanced Contemporary Affairs (Book 92)prediction sometimes echoed by Pakistani former officials in private 3hese e6pectations raise the9uestion of India&s options vis.J.vis Pakistan

#ew $elhi cares far less about Islamabad&s irredentist claims on its territory than it doesabout the uncertainty of Pakistan&s political future =or many Indian officials across the politicalspectrum, the lack of a unified Pakistani center of power with a single policy makes meaningfulnegotiation and settlements impossible (tuck in its own contradictions, Pakistan is not amenable toany policy initiated from the outside, be it favorable or hostile

3his therefore condemns India to remaining essentially reactive until Pakistan can resolvethe tensions in its foreign policy Cn past rare occasions when India has made the first move towardadvancing relations, different segments of the Pakistani establishment interpreted them in divergent

and often conflicting and counterproductive ways, no matter what the proposal contained =orinstance, Manmohan (ingh&s proposal to make the border between the two countries irrelevant in8ashmir4and Perve' Musharraf&s relatively positively answer4generated strong dissent within thePakistani military 3rue, #ew $elhi can favor or close any possibility of dialogue It can also raise thecost of potential aggression !ut the decision to normali'e the relationship belongs ultimately toPakistan

In this conte6t, widespread speculation about the positive or negative influence of PrimeMinister Modi&s ascension or the nationalism of his !haratiya Banata Party 1!BP2 is in many waysirrelevant to the IndiaPakistan conflict 3hese factors in India could facilitate or complicate theacceptance of a political settlement between the two countries, but they cannot drive the relationship(imilarly, a flare.up of communal tensions could slow the pace of an eventual normali'ation butwould not derail it completely

Modi&s first several months in office illustrate this dynamic well His invitation to the (%%/0leaders signaled a model of management for the relationship with Pakistan, although its intention andimpact are not limited to India&s relationship with Pakistan alone With this move, Modi made it clearto his Pakistani counterpart that Pakistan is not his sole foreign policy concern, but he also ironically

half.opened a door to improving that relationship which many thought was closed for the foreseeablefuture In short, Modi has made (harif aware of India&s conditions, mostly related to terrorism, for asignificant improvement of the relationship" it is now for Pakistan to demonstrate its willingness totake action

3he tough Indian response to Pakistani Cctober )+- provocations in 8ashmir may havecalmed down the latter&s temptation to further test the resolve of the Indian government, but the riskof a ma


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Asian Affairs %&a ma


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%+ The Advanced Contemporary Affairs (Book 92)of these areas4combined with the concomitant fragmentation of the anti.3aliban factions4wouldmake any opposition to the 3aliban more difficult, leaving the door open for a future 3aliban offensive

%t the same time, Islamabad is increasing its own control over the 3aliban by preventing all attemptsat direct negotiations between the Islamist militia and the %fghan government, unless authori'ed byIslamabad In this conte6t, the :reconciliation; process Islamabad says it is supporting appearsessentially to be a means of conferring legitimacy upon the 3aliban as political actors, preparing theirfuture participation in an %fghan government sufficiently weak and divided to be more amenable toIslamabad&s demands

Det there are few reasons to believe that Pakistan is no longer trying to eliminate Indianinfluence in %fghanistan #aturally, it is still trying to promote the emergence of a friendly %fghan

government 1or at least a government it can control2 and e6pedite the return of %fghan refugees toprevent their potentially violent involvement in Pakistani politics 3hus, what Pakistan has presentedfor the past four years as a wholesale reversal of its old strategy is in fact a tactical read


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Asian Affairs %.the military, which ballooned after the Inter.(ervices Intelligence 1I(I2, Pakistan&s premier intelligenceagency, allegedly tried to assassinate star


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%0 The Advanced Contemporary Affairs (Book 92)1the most relevant strength in the age of war on terror&2 59uipped with nuclear technology and homemanufactured armaments, Pakistan remains a uni9uely powerful Muslim country in the world" thewhole Islamic world 1nearly * !illion people2 looks up to it for strength and leadership It is blessedwith the highest mountain peaks, glaciers, rivers and dams, vast agriculture, minerals, and veryimportant geostrategic location

$uring the last one decade, 3urkey has become the Nth largest economy, and has attaineda respectable status in the region and the world It


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Asian Affairs %2%fter the collapse of /ussia in the late +s, the world faced three global events7 1i2 ( became thesole super power 1a lack of politico. military balance2, 1ii2 emergence of penetrating informationtechnology 1satellite 3 and social media2, and 1iii2 a comple6 of K events 3heir combined effectcreated an overall environment which was conducive for rapid change through designedinterventions in all parts of the world Wars and issues related to @ibya, Ira9, (yria, 5gypt, kraine,

%fghanistan, and Pakistan are e6amples In other words, the world e6perienced different sorts ofshocks to maintain the e6isting world order 3o rebut this onslaught, 0hina and /ussia came closerthrough (0C 1(hanghai 0ooperation Crgani'ation2 and recently signed a (E-++ !illion gas deal1Wright )+-2 which will be operated in their local currencies 1not the ( dollar2 !/I0( and severalother countries have been trading either in Duan or their locally swapped currencies during the lastseveral years %pparently, the world is moving towards a multipolar system of governance andregional blocs are emerging to create new environment

Moreover, new 1parallel2 banking systems are coming up In the Western perspective, 0hinaonly has (E- 3rillion worth of shadow banking and has grown by -) per cent in year )+> only1Wen )+-2 3he ( has faced powerful resistance in (yria, kraine, and other parts of the world inrecent times Moreover, the ( has


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%5 The Advanced Contemporary Affairs (Book 92) #eighbours are permanent, and promoting good relations with them is an intrinsic and constant

desire for all the relevant nations

) (trategic interests of nations vary over a period of time due to changes in global, regional, andstate policiesKactions

> Individual states pursue their interests within the frame of short, medium, and long term(ometimes, short term interests are sacrificed for long term gains and vice versa

- !ilateral relations are identified in five dimensions7 1a2 eostrategic, 1b2 5conomicK3rade, 1c2MilitaryK(ecurity, 1d2 Public sentimentKopinion, 1e2 0ultureKreligion

F Pakistan is facing a new global and regional environment whereby the Lwar on terror& 1war ofhearts and minds or moulding public opinion through a comple6 form of propaganda2 remains ama


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Asian Affairs %%

Figure-2: uanti!cation of t"e Factors about #i-lateral and Multi-lateral$elations %it" Neig"bouring &ountries

,hina

With regards to 0hina, Pakistan should work to improve relations by deepening economicties 3he e6panded trade should improve Pakistan&s economy in such a way that it createsemployment in Pakistan 3echnology transfer on various economic ventures should be emphasi'edfor having sustainable growth in the country 3o this end, 0hina&s state and people are eager todevelop stronger economic ties with Pakistan

eostrategic benefits can be e6panded through the development of communicationinfrastructure, including the use of the deep sea wadar port of Pakistan, and putting up the due

roadKrail system to create links with the 0entral %sian states


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%7 The Advanced Contemporary Affairs (Book 92)0ultural relations with 0hina seem to be 9uite weak as there is very little tourism between

the two countries 3here should be special emphasis on building cultural relations between the twoimportant nations of the region 0hina is a booming economy and has a per.capita income of (E*N++, indicating a huge potential of travel to Pakistan

Military relations have been strong for the last several decades but can further improvepossibly through


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Asian Affairs %8$ue to the ongoing Lwar on terror& in %fghanistan.Pakistan region, the relations between

these two neighbouring countries had been uncertain 3he war has created certain fears among thepeople of both the countries but we should address this issue by improving trade and investment,cultural tourism, and religion.based interactions (uch moves will improve public sentiment towardseach other, and thereby build supportive relations between the two nations

In summary, Pakistan and %fghanistan are strongly linked countries in terms of geography,tradition, religion, daily trade, travel, and a porous border 3hese relations are long and sustainablePakistan needs to build on all the dimensions and design an innovative support structure for thebenefit of the two nations It will enhance national confidence of Pakistan, which is necessary forbecoming an important nation of the region and the world

India

India remains the most important foreign policy challenge for Pakistan It is a country of ) billionpeople and boastful about its democracy 3he geopolitics of the region has forced antagonisticrelations between the two countries

$ue to the long history of conflict with India, Pakistan&s perceptions on the five dimensions ofbilateral relations 1see =igure )2 are negative 3his situation demands a careful scrutiny =ore6ample, cultural affinity between the two nations could be a positive factor but Indian domination incultural spheres, including mass media, has damaged the Pakistani identity 3rade between the twocountries should have been mutually beneficial but the traded items indicate a different scenarioPakistan e6ports cement and gypsum to India, and the imports into Pakistan are mainly perishablecommodities like vegetables and fruits %ccordingly, trade between India and Pakistan leaves a netnegative effect on Pakistan&s economy Cn account of generally negative effects of India.Pakistanrelations on Pakistani state, the scores allotted to all the dimensions are negative

'urke(

Moving beyond the immediate neighbours, Pakistan should build supportive relations withmodern Muslim state of 3urkey reat sentimental relations e6ist between the two nations since thedays of World War when India 1Pakistan2 sent army to the support of 3urks 3here is a significantreciprocal positive public sentiment %ccordingly, there is a great potential of tourism and tradebetween the two countries 3he improved relations will increase strategic neighbourhood depth3urkish foreign policy focussed on such moves across several countries has created economic andpolitical benefits Pakistan should come forward to advance brotherly relations with 3urkey It isheartening to note that active trade relations e6ist between 3urkish government and Pun" and in )+), eneral 8ayani of Pakistan visited /ussia 3hesevisits were the first ever after the +s when military relations between the two countries gotstrained due to Pakistan&s support to %fghan Mu


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%$ The Advanced Contemporary Affairs (Book 92)policy speech Cbama gave at the ( Military %cademy, Westpoint, on May ), )+-, he indicated ashift in %merican policy towards using non.military means to address global issues 3his was animportant change at least in the present politico.security circumstances around Pakistan

3he changing conditions must be understood comprehensively by Pakistan, which shouldthen formulate its bilateralKmultilateral policies with its neighbours In other words, Pakistan shouldassert its sovereignty and develop multi.dimensional relations with neighbouring countries inparticular and other countries across the globe in general

,on!lusion

!y improving relations with neighbours and other important countries around the world,Pakistan should gain confidence as a successful state Pakistan must improve relations with itsneighbours even further and attain power to sustain itself 3he improvement of relations with 0hina,Iran, and %fghanistan should become more supportive and can be used to deal with the challengefrom India It must be borne in mind that this is also the need of our neighbours Pakistan should notthink that any country will be shy to have peace In today&s environment, we have to learn to live withcontradictions Bust to e6plain, India may have good relations with Iran but that does not mean thatPakistan could not have e9ually friendly relations with Iran because India is not friends with us 5verycountry wishes to have peace with its neighbours and Pakistan should become proactive to promotefriendly relations with all countries of the region including India

Re!ommendations

Pakistan should understand the rapidly changing global and regional environment" speed is thegame

) Pakistan should learn to live with contradictions and develop good relations with all neighbours> Pakistan should strive for peace with all the immediate and distant neighbours- 3urkey and /ussia should be considered by Pakistan as significant neighbours Peace with

%rabian (ea and Indian ocean is also important for Pakistan&s futureF Pakistan should pursue multi.dimensional and duly fle6ible foreign policy based on dimensions

including 1a2 geostrategic, 1b2 economicKtrade, 1c2 militaryKsecurity, 1d2 public sentimentKopinion,1e2 cultureKreligion* Pakistan should be proactive to deal with individual countries in relation to their specific needs

and with due fle6ibilityN Pakistan&s foreign policy should be alert to deal with fast emerging conditions in bilateral and

multilateral sense Pakistan should understand its short, medium, and long term interests with each country and

should be able to prioriti'e in the given or emerging conditions Pakistan should be able to look through its interests in the frames of bi

lateral ism, regionalism, and global ism (ometimes, bilateral interestsare dominated by regional or global interests However, the regionaround Pakistan has become hugely important for the world ingeostrategic sense

+ Pakistan should gain confidence by telling itself that it has survived along war on terror It should be a great confidence booster to deal withfuture challenges

'he Ima!t o" theIslami! State in )sia

Ahmed S. Hashim

1a!k*round: ) Resur*en!e o" 'ransnational 'errorism in )sia?

he dramatic successes of the (alafi.Bihadist terrorist movement, the Islamic (tate of Ira9 and(yria 1I(I(2 and its creation, the Islamic (tate 1I(2 in the far western part of %sia known as theMiddle 5ast 1or (outhwest %sia2 stunned the world in mid.)+- 3hese successes werefacilitated by the presence of motivated and fanatical foreign fighters from 5urope and from

%sia and by the tactical alliance with former Ira9i insurgents and former members of the !a&thistregime of (addam Hussein

3%sian governments have become worried by the potential threat posed by the Islamic (tate

overnments uncovered recruitment drives for the so.called


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Asian Affairs 7&do'ens of people either hoping to go on the


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7+ The Advanced Contemporary Affairs (Book 92)countries have been thoroughly disconcerted by the presence of relatively significant numbers oftheir citi'ens in the ranks of I(I(KI( and other


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Asian Affairs 7.sympathisers 4 some of them former 3aliban commanders 4 have begun to recruit actively onbehalf of the Lcaliphate& in Helmand province in the southern part of the country 3his bra'en entryinto 3aliban territory has sparked armed clashes between local 3aliban units and the I( sympathisersiven the strength of the 3aliban in Helmand, it is not clear how much traction I( sympathisers willgain in %fghanistan

$eadly


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70 The Advanced Contemporary Affairs (Book 92)the victims of communal violence over the years; #onetheless, despite the emergence of what canbe called :Indian


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Asian Affairs 72@ibi, was the first senior member of the organisation to utter comments on the situation of theyghurs

In a video posted on an Islamist website on N Cctober )++, al.@ibi urged the yghurs tolaunch a


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75 The Advanced Contemporary Affairs (Book 92)been the most worried by the impact of I( because of the number of foreign fighters from the sub.region who have gone to (yria and Ira9 3his worry stems from the lingering fear of what they coulddo were they to come back, and because I(I( and its creation I( seem to have attracted the supportof small but increasingly vocal groups of Islamist militants in the sub.region who might conduct localattacks on their own 3he brutality of I(I(, so evident in its mass murder of (yrian and Ira9i soldiers,Muslim civilians, minorities, and beheadings of innocent Western


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Asian Affairs 7%movement, in turn, inspired various terrorist splinter groups 4 eg 8omando Bihad 4 to commit actsof terror, including attacks on government installations and the hi, a (hia religious school andseveral houses were burnt in the so.called (ampang Incident, which led a hundred (hiites to fleefrom Madura to Bava 3he government&s diffident attitude 4 the (hia villagers might be able to returnto their homes if they considered :returning to the true teachings of Islam,; implicitly encourages:open season; on Muslim minorities by fanatics Moreover, such views are not consistent with theIndonesian 0onstitution, which allows freedom of religion

3he government of Indonesia tasked the #ational 0ounter.terrorism %gency 1!#P32 withmaintaining surveillance of e6tremist activities of all kinds in the archipelago including monitoring ofopen support for I( in the social media and with preparing for returnees from the +,+++ in the nited %rab 5mirates" and about )++,+++ each in 8uwaitand Qatar If I(I( or any other e6tremists want to target or pressure the Philippines, they do not have

to strike halfway across the world 3hey can threaten, kidnap, hostage and kill =ilipinos in theirregion, most of who are in nations like the four cited above, where the ma


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77 The Advanced Contemporary Affairs (Book 92)the religion espoused by I(I( Many =ilipinos have urged their government to take action to counterthe potential threat to =ilipino nationals in the Middle 5ast by educating e6patriates on necessarysecurity protocols and cooperating with police and intelligence agencies in host countries0ommentators have implored the government to avoid any pronouncements and actions likely toprovoke I(I( attacks on =ilipinos in the Middle 5ast, whom the Philippines has 'ero capability tosecure President !enigno %9uino&s offer to help the ( in its war against I(I( has been seen as illadvised by =ilipinos His aid offer would contribute nothing that %merica sorely needs to fight thee6tremists, but would put countless =ilipino citi'ens in the Middle 5ast at grave risk

Cn the surface it would seem that the .)+-, %(IC puts the terrorist threat posed by


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Asian Affairs 78military capabilities and its political stranglehold over important regions of (yria and Ira9 will mostlikely collapse

However, this may not necessarily mean the end of I(I( 3he ( has been proclaiming theend of %l Qaida 4 now a bitter opponent of I(I(KI( 4 for years, yet it still e6ists and continues tothreaten the peace and security of many regions in %frica and the Middle 5ast I(I(KI( itself is not yetand might never become a threat to the regions to be addressed in this report, that is, beyond (yriaand Ira9 3he threat that I(I(KI( pose to both (yria and Ira9 is a potentially e6istential one to theirnational security and integrity I(I(KI( does not pose that kind of threat to the rest of %sia If I(I(KI(implodes due to effective concerted action by the nited (tates and regional powers, I(I( remnantsmight return to their respective homes seeking to e6act revenge for the failure of their :state;

(econd, while some


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7$ The Advanced Contemporary Affairs (Book 92)

'he ima!t o" the Islami! Stateon Pakistan

Muhammad Amir Rana

;and the militants that trained in the camp eventually constituted the ha'i =orce 1/ana, )+-2(imilarly, the banned terrorist group Bundullah&s claim that an I( delegation visited !alochistan canalso be seen from this perspective However, it is not clear if the I( delegation comprised @eBmembers from !alochistan who had earlier


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Asian Affairs 8&usually entail a process of abrasion, which sometime goes deep, but should not be regarded asundermining the groups that undergo the process 3ransformations do not make terrorist groupsweaker" rather, they provide them with new ideological strength that helps them to restructurethemselves and revamp their operational strategies When a breakaway faction of the 33P, Bamatul

%hrar, claimed that the 33P now belonged to it, it was in effect stating that it had replaced olderorganisational and operational formations with new ones 3his phenomenon is not uni9ue to the 33P7Pakistani terrorist movements have passed through many transformations during the last decade=or e6ample, the terrorist attacks in the ( on (eptember th )++ increased al.Qa&ida&s influenceamong 8ashmir.based militant and sectarian groups in Pakistan, transforming ma


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8+ The Advanced Contemporary Affairs (Book 92)pressure on the leaders of non.violent Islamic movements and political parties, because theirfollowers and cadres start comparing the achievements of their leadership with that of Islamistmovements that are succeeding elsewhere %chieving a goal 9uickly always attracts ideologicalmovements and spurs e6tremists to adopt violent ways If the I( sustains its momentum andsucceeds in maintaining control over the territories it has captured it can cause frustration amonggroups such as Hi'but 3ahrir and the student wings of religious.political parties in Pakistan thatbelieve in non.violent struggle for the establishment of a caliphate

'he ISs ima!t on the militant lands!ae

(urprisingly, an announcement of allegiance to the I( came from five 3aliban commanders

who constituted the operational core of the 33P Many were e6pecting the Bamatul %hrar, abreakaway faction of the 33P that was strongly influenced by the I( but not formally allied to it, to bethe first to take an oath of allegiance to the I( !ut it seems that the group is wavering between the

%fghan 3aliban.al.Qa&ida alliance and the I( as its future association !y declaring allegiance to theI(, the 3aliban commanders not only took the lead, but also captured the title of 8horasanPreviously, leaders of Bamatul %hrar tried to tag themselves as 8horasani, claiming they were thefirst troops of the prophesied Islamic state of 8horasan 3hey believe the time has come for theestablishment of an Islamic state in this region comprising some parts of 0entral %sia, and Iran,Pakistan and %fghanistan However, it would be very difficult for Bamatul %hrar to maintain relationswith al.Qa&ida and the I( at the same time, while also remaining loyal to the %fghan 3aliban&s MullahCmar 3he five defecting 33P commanders have strong sectarian credentials and seem to beinspired by the I(&s sectarian designs 3heir likely future behaviour is unclear because the I( hasasked its followers to channel their resources to (yria and Ira9, where the group first wants toconsolidate its position

Cn the other hand, the I(&s influence on militant groups in Pakistan and %fghanistan is ahuge challenge for al.Qa&ida 3he groups that were not happy with al.Qa&ida&s operational strategiesare now more attracted to the I( 3heir frustration with al.Qa&ida was mainly due to the conviction

that their ultimate ob


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Asian Affairs 8.active in 8arachi and the Peshawar alley are of a similar nature With their Islamist background,they are naturally inclined towards the I(, and like a few commanders of the Hi'b.i.Islami a BIaffiliate in %fghanistan apparently intend to announce their allegiance to the I(

(een from this perspective, the Bu% is likely to have a close operational alliance withBundallah groups inside Pakistan 0onversely, the 33P&s operational concentration will increaseinside %fghanistan It appears as if a new formation or alliance of al.Qa&ida, the %fghan 3aliban, 33P,the local 3aliban led by ul !ahadur and the Islamic Movement of 'bekistan will emerge that will bechallenged by an alliance of Bu% and its Pakistani affiliates and breakaway factions of the %fghan3aliban and Hi'b.i.Islami

Imli!ations "or internal se!urit(

In the short term I(.inspired small groups and commanders could launch sectarian attacksin Pakistan In this conte6t the !alochistan government assessment report on the I(&s presence inthe province is significant 3he report claims that the I( has offered to


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80 The Advanced Contemporary Affairs (Book 92)!ut in spite of the complicated nature of Pakistan %fghanistan relations of F+ and *+,

there were some positive aspects to it =or e6ample the two sides were able to reach an agreementfor %fghan 3ransit 3rade, which was an important foundation for durable relationship 3his agreementenabled %fghanistan to have access to 8arachi seaport for the international trade (imilarly duringPakistan&s two wars with India in *F and N, %fghanistan did not create any problem and alsoassured Pakistan that there will be no negative activity in the border area of the two countries (o

%fghanistan&s cooperation enabled Pakistan to utilise its $efence resources on the 5astern !order

3he situation fundamentally changed when the erstwhile (oviet nion invaded %fghanistanin + Millions of %fghan refugees came to Pakistan during the war in %fghanistan in +sPakistan supported %fghan resistance against the (oviet nion and a new bond of fraternity came

into being between the people of the two countries 3here will be hardly any other e6ample in historyof such large scale and positive interaction between any two countries

56perience of the past few decades has proved this fact, beyond any doubt, that therecannot be stability in one country at the cost of the other We saw that conflict in %fghanistane6panded into Pakistan and had a devastating fall.out 3housands and thousands of people havefallen victims to the menace of terrorism in both the countries %gain e6perience has brought thepoint home to both states that without mutual cooperation they will not be able to defeat the scourgeof terrorism

3he people of Pakistan have watched with sympathy and interest the social, political andsecurity transitions in %fghanistan 3hey appreciate the steady evolution of a democratic %fghanistanIt is a matter of historical record that ma


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Asian Affairs 820onse9uently, only people with dish antennas have access to the 3 programmes of the othercountry $ue to lack of direct media connection between the two countries, both of them have todepend on foreign, particularly Western news agencies, to get news from across the border

It is unbelievable that during recent %fghanistan Presidential 5lections there was not a singlePakistani news camera to cover the 5lectoral Process 5verything was received through foreignnews agencies

3he situation is similarly weird in sports 0ricket being the most popular game in both thecountries offers tremendous opportunities for playing matches in both countries !ut because of theunder.current of political trust deficit, the potential has not been reali'ed

3he %fghan Parliament has approved !ilateral (ecurity %greement 1!(%2 with the (% 1nowofficially called the (ecurity and $efence 0ooperation %greement2 and the (tatus of =orces%greement 1(C=%2 with #%3C 3his development has paved ground for the I(%= follow up missioncalled /esolute (upport to start on Banuary +, )+F 3his force will comprise of )+++ soldiersincluding ++ %mericans Pakistan has welcomed the emergence of #ational nity overnment in

%fghanistan after the Presidential elections and wishes every success to it

3he recent high level political and security contacts between the two countries havedemonstrated a positive trend in the relationship Cf particular importance was the maiden visit of

%fghanistan President $r %shraf hani to Pakistan on #ovember -, )+- $eliberation between thetop leadership of two countries during this visit has opened new avenues of political, security andeconomic cooperation Pakistan was impressed by the clarity of the vision of $r %shraf haniregarding Pakistan.%fghanistan cooperation When Mr Muhammad #awa' (harif, Prime Minister ofPakistan, talked about opening a new page in the relationship of the two countries, $r %shraf hani,the President of %fghanistan, reciprocated by saying that he was altogether in favour of opening anew book in this regard 0oncrete proposals regarding e6panding bilateral trade, starting a( Forard: Strate*i! Stes 'oards Possi/le Pakistan-)"*hanistan oint Plan o" )!tion = Re!ommendations

3he potential for economic and trade relations can be reali'ed only if there is peace inPakistan and %fghanistan 3he recent spate of terrorist attacks in %fghanistan was aimed at, apartfrom other things, for subverting the positive atmosphere created by the successful visit of President

%shraf hani to Pakistan

%ll those terrorist attacks were evil but particularly despicable was the attack on innocentpeople busy in a volleyball match in Paktia Province of %fghanistan in which more than + peopledied

(imilarly a heinous crime was committed in Peshawar on #ovember *, )+-, in whichinnocent young students and their teachers were savagely murdered by terrorists Peshawar tragedyis a watershed moment in the anti.terror struggle of the people and overnment of Pakistan 3hepeople of Pakistan have openly come out to demand decisive action against terrorists of all shades

It is heartening to see that Peshawar tragedy has not only united the people of Pakistan intheir resolve to fight terror but overnments of Pakistan and %fghanistan have also enhanced theircooperation for defeating terrorism It is encouraging to see that both the overnments, instead ofindulging in blame game, have 9uietly increased cooperation in the common fight

Cne would wish and hope that such cooperation should be further strengthened to take thestruggle against terrorism to a logical conclusion We should urge both the overnments to go fortaking bold steps for building confidence between each other Cf paramount significance in thisregard will be mutually addressing each other&s concerns regarding pockets of terrorist on both sidesof the borders 3his will go a long way in building confidence and removing irritants in therelationships between the two countries

Pakistan fully supports an %fghan.led and %fghan. owned process of reconciliation and

peace making Pakistan will make positive contribution in facilitating the aforementioned process tothe e6tent desired by our %fghan brothers


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85 The Advanced Contemporary Affairs (Book 92)Pakistani Parliamentarians endorse the initiative for a national reconciliation taken by the

High Peace 0ouncil 1HP02 of %fghanistan and hope that all sides will show maturity and wouldunderstand the vitality of peace for %fghanistan and the entire region

3here should be an inclusive approach on both regional and international levels, as 'erosum games in the past have led to perpetuation of the conflict

We appreciate the positive initiatives taken by the immediate neighbours for establishingpeace in the region and intend to cooperate with them We particularly welcome the keen interestdemonstrated by our great neighbour People&s /epublic of 0hina in overcoming conflict andestablishing peace in our region We hope that the 0hinese support for peace and its vision foreconomic development of the region will go a long way in stabili'ing the region and in bringing it at

par with the rest of the world in economic developmentPakistan and %fghanistan have not only wide ranging bilateral engagement but they are also

part of number of trilateral meetings and other multilateral processes geared towards establishingpeace and achieving stability We are determined to work honestly and diligently to achieve the goalof peace and stability

3he year )+F is absolutely crucial for establishing sustainable peace in %fghanistan and fordefeating terrorism in Pakistan It clearly underlines the commonalities in the destinies of the twocountries While both the countries strive for peace they will have to be prepared to defeat theterrorist who wants to inflict death and destruction on the people of the both countries

If the past e6perience is anything to go by, they can achieve thisgoal by further enhancing cooperation in combating terrorism !y defeatingthe evil forces of terror both the countries can look towards )+* andbeyond for an era of socio.economic development which seems to be thecommon destiny of %sian countries %fter all every indicator of socio.economic development hints at ) century being the %sian century

Ne @reat @ame: Pla(ers3 Interests3Strate*ies and ,entral )sia

Qamar Fatima & Sumera Zafar

)/stra!t

3he hinterland of 0entral %sia had been the centre stage of nineteenth century imperial rivalrybetween !ritain and /ussia 3he centrality of 0entral %sia did not diminish even in the #ew reatame, though changed its dimension 3he disintegration of (oviet nion changed the geopoliticalrealities in the region as well as in the world politics as the five 0entral %sian states, 8a'akhstan,8yrgy'stan, 3a


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Asian Affairs 8%eopolitics, as the word indicates, studies the relationship between the politics and thegeographical location of a region or of a state and its effects on the behaviour in conductingthe relations with other countries and directions it chooses to play its role in the world affairsIn geopolitics different factors such as economy, demography, technology and strategic

options play their role in deciding state&s behaviour in the world politics

3he world has witnessed the new trends and patterns of geopolitical relations after thecollapse of the bipolar system because century long system of two power blocks changed after thedisintegration of the (oviet nion 1$haka, )++F $wivedi, )++*2

0entral %sia according to Mackinder&s geopolitical theory is the Heartland of the worldpolitics It has been the chessboard of imperial rivalry e6isted between !ritish and /ussian empires

caused by their e6pansionist polices (o there had been a competition between !ritish and 3asrist/ussia for influence over 0entral %sia owing to its location at crossroads of different civili'ations andold silk route3he significance of this imperial rivalry was attributed by Mackinder&s geopoliticalanalysisand named it as heartland (o whoso ever wanted to be an influential power player in termsof political dominance with economic fruition had to turn towards Mackinder conception of Heartland?1=atima, )+)2 3he nineteenth and twentieth century imperial rivalry was ascribed as reat amefirst by /udyard 8ipling then by %rthur 0onnally, an officer from the !ritish 5ast India 0ompany

%ccording to Hopkirk; the reat ame involved three phases 3he first one began with thee6pansion of the /ussian 5mpire in the 0aucasus and 0entral %sia in the late eighteenth and earlynineteenth centuries, generating apprehensions in the 5ast India 0ompany, the defacto power inIndia =earing /ussia&s intentions, the company sent officers to e6plore the way, by land to thenorthern border of India $uring the nineteenth century, the !ritish govt sought to engage moreintensely in 0entral %sian issues transforming the great game , until then , private in nature into anessential element of the defence of the empire as well as foreign and colonial policy;3he first phaseof old great game ended in +N with the signing of %nglo./ussian 0onvention 3he second phasebegan with same tactics of spying and manipulating local population and tribes 3his phase lasted tillN 3he communist revolution in /ussia did not abandon to manipulate the political dominance by

whatever means available, and the !olshevik leadership resorted to :liberate by means of armedrevolt, the whole of %sia from imperialist domination; 1Hopkirk, )+)2 3he centrality of 0entral %siaremained unswerving during the entire period of old great game 3his pattern of centrality can beeasily found in the latest version of reat ame waged by currency of world powers

3he reat ame resurfaced under the rubric of #ew reat ame with new notions, newtechni9ues, new players and new strategies led by differing ob


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87 The Advanced Contemporary Affairs (Book 92)%t that time %rgentinean company !ridas took a step forward and bid for leases in

3urkmenistan Cther Western oil companies hesitated to invest in 3urkmenistan because there wasno legislation for the protection and safety of foreign investors !ridas changed the whole scenario ofthe region by proposing pipelines to e6port the 3urkmen oil and gas to the world markets 1/ashid,)++2

In !ridas was given Dashlar block which was close to the $aulatabad gas field In) !ridas was given 8eimir block close to the 0aspian (ea 8eimir started operation in -!ridas started e6porting oil from 8eimer field in - and also discovered a huge gas field in Dashlarblock intended to e6plore markets in (outh %sia for the e6port of gas therefore it put a plan to build apipeline from Dashlar field to Pakistan&s province !aluchistan via southern %fghanistan 3heproposed length of the pipeline was NF miles 3his proposal was an open access pipeline throughwhich other countries could transport their gas 3his pipeline was of interest to the %fghan warlordsbecause they wanted to e6port their gas reserves in the northern country through this pipeline In* !ridas and %fghan government 1headed by !urhan.ud.$in /abbani2 signed an agreement forthe construction of pipeline and the creation of International consortium =or this purpose !ridasstarted negotiating with other oil companies nocal was an oil company which had e6perience in

%sia nocal was introduced to the 3urkmen official for the first time during these negotiations inF !efore the finali'ation of negotiations differences emerged between !ridas and 3urkmenistanon the prices and profits of the oil and gas /ashid 1)++2 identified another reason for the emergingdifference between !ridas and 3urkmenistan 3hat was the nocal&s interest in constructing anothergas pipeline from $aulatabad gas field of 3urkmenistan without the cooperation of !ridas #aya'ovconsidered it an opportunity to attract (% to invest in the development of 3urkmenistan 1/ashid,)++2 (% paid less attention to the 0entral %sian states immediately after their independence andgave less priority to the 0%/s in the foreign policy 10ooley, )++2

nocal started following pro


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Asian Affairs 88pipeline by 3he whole ame changed when 3aliban were defeated by #orthern %lliance in theMa'ar.e.(harif nocal linked the construction of the pipeline to the peace conditions in the

%fghanistan %fter these developments (% started looking other options to transport 3urkmen gas% ma


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8$ The Advanced Contemporary Affairs (Book 92)3his dimension revolves around the security interests and strategies of the actors involved in

the 0entral %sian region 3his is linked with the strategic policies of the players to create hegemonyover the energy resources

@eo-oliti!al Dimension3his dimension includes the role of 0entral %sian states and their strategies to find their own

place in the world politics 1(mith, *2 3wo factors are important in this dimension 3hese areenergy reserves and the location of the region 0entral %sian states are focusing these factors toenhance their importance 1%hrari, *2

In order to study the geo.economic and geostrategic relations and the comple6 nature of

interest wars it is important to have an in.depth study of the 0entral %sian region,entral )sia in Ne @reat @ame: Role and Patterns

0entral %sia is a landlocked region which is located at the Heart of the 5urasia 3he cleardefinitions of this region are not given and there are different criteria according to which the region isdefined in the academia 3he historical facts revealed that the region was consisted of a largelandmass which started from the southern parts of the (iberia and runs to the Pakistan %fghanistanand Iran It also included 0aspian (ea, former (oviet 0entral %sia, areas of Inner 0hina, 0hineseprovince of Sin


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Asian Affairs $&

Map of Central Asia

Note. From The New Great Game: Rivalry of Geo-strategies and Geo-economies inCentral Asia y !eter "#recic$ %&'&$ (rvats)i geografs)i glasni)$ *%+',$ .%%.

3he climate of the region is dry 3he irrigation in the region is dependent on the water

system of the region 3he region e6periences very low rainfall 3he evaporation rate is high $haka1)++F2 Inter.regional trade is the vital factor of the economy of these states 3he infrastructure in theregion during the (oviet domination shows the dependency of these states on (oviet nion in theeconomic sphere 8han 1-2stated that the infrastructure in the region is not sufficient to allowthese states to benefit the opportunities of accessing the world markets

%fter the disintegration of the (oviet nion the states of 0entral %sian were givenIndependence 8urecic 1)++2 identified that the dependence of these states on (oviet nion beforetheir independence cost them heavily and they were unable to manage the economic affairs oncethey were declared independent Immediate after independence the $P of these states declined3hey were not integrated to the world markets therefore it became a reason for the decline of $P

%fter an immediate blow the $P of the states started in the late +s In )++ 8a'akhstan and3urkmenistan witnessed the trends of increase in $P Ma


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$+ The Advanced Contemporary Affairs (Book 92)pursuing their policies in the region which includes (% and 3urkey 3he pro6imity of 0entral %sia tothe regional powers and the involvement of global players in the region enhance its geopoliticalimportance 18han, )++*2

;ner*( Reserves

Wasi 1)++)2 stated that 0entral %sia is a region which is blessed with the vast reserves ofnatural resources 3he most notable are oil and gas reserves %ccording to her this region is hostingthe second largest energy reserves 3his region is also rich in colourful metals such as gold, silver,magnesium and uranium etc these natural resources increased the geopolitical importance of the0entral %sia 3he global players and the regional powers are trying to dominate these energyreserves and are pursuing their policies to further their interests

@eostrate*i! Pivot

3he geostrategic importance of this region is the result of geopolitical and geo.economicssignificance Mackinder in +- stated that the Heart of the 5urasia would play an important role inthe world politics %ccording to his Heartland theory the power which controls the heartland wouldcontrol the world affairs 1!lacksell, )++*2 Mackinder&s Heartland includes the 0entral %sian regionalso 0entral %sia became the centre of attraction for the strategic players like /ussia and 0hina andsome 3rans.regional powers like (% 3he region en


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Asian Affairs $.

,hina

0hina is an important regional power as well as the emerging economic power in the world=u 1)++2 identified aspects around which 0hinese interests revolve in 0entral %sia 0hina wantspeace with the regional countries which include /ussia and the 0entral %sian states with peacefulborders and stability to control the situation in Sin


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$0 The Advanced Contemporary Affairs (Book 92)contained 1(tarr, )++F2 =or a successful strategy it is important that regional governments mustconsider ( developmental pro


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Asian Affairs $2Iran, according to 8urecic 1)++2, is pursuing the pipeline strategy which is to transport the

0aspian (ea oil to Iranian ports of !andar %bbas and !andar 8homeini to be e6ported to the worldmarkets 3he success of Iran&s strategy is based on gaining the influence in 3urkmenistan,

%'erbai2 8urecic 1)++2 stated that 3urkeyherself holds strategically important position It is situated at the location where it serves as thebridge between 3he Middle 5ast, (outh.5astern 5urope, 0aucasus, and the 0aspian (ea regions3urkey&s main aim is to play a significant role in transporting the energy resources f 0aspian region,Middle 5ast and /ussia to the Western markets 1Ipek, )++*2 3urkey&s strategy involves thecompletion of 5ast.West 5nergy 0orridor 3his 5nergy 0orridor is important as it aims to transportthe energy resources of 0aspian !asin and 0entral %sian region to the western markets withoutusing /ussian territory 3he main aim is to bypass /ussian role 1Ipek, )++*2 3urkey&s role isenhanced by the following factors7

It is a stable country % reliable western ally It is a country which allows routes of pipelines from 0entral %sian and 0aucasus region to the

west Its interests do not clash with the interests of the Western powers

3urkish model of secular Islam is more familiar to the 0entral %sian people 3urkey has strong ethnic ties with the 0entral %sian states

$haka 1)++F2 %hrari 1*2stated that 3urkey was used by ( as a card to play in 0entral%sia In the beginning 3urkey focused education, telecommunication, transportation sectors andcultural linkages !ut the western support reduces in the aftermath of the issues of 8urdish humanrights 3he unrest in the 8urdish areas makes them unfavourable for the pipeline routes 3hisreduces 3urkish importance and as a result 3urkey lost her influence in the region 0entral %sianstates also re


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$5 The Advanced Contemporary Affairs (Book 92)

Pakistan is hopeful about her gains in the 0entral %sian markets due to the e6perienced!usiness community which wants to e6tend their activities in the region

Pakistan&s main interests in the region are7

3o find a place in the economic activity and market development of the region

3o enhance her trade with the region

Cn the security front Pakistan is a victim of terrorism and same is the threat to 0entral %sia 3he'bek tribes are also a part of terrorist activities Pakistan wants to have bilateral relations withthese states to curb the e6tremist elements and threats Pakistan has signed many bilateral

trade agreements with the 0%/( Pakistan is also building gas pipeline =rom 3urkmenistan toPakistan via %fghanistan this pipeline will finally reach India 18han, - %bbas, )+)2

@eo-;!onomi! Dimension o" the Ne @reat @ame

eo.economic dimension of the #ew reat ame represents the rivalry of ma2 highlighted the significance of0entral %sian region by stating that there are transit routes for energy which are an important aspectof the #ew reat ame

Ao!ations o" Resour!es

5nergy reserves of the region are concentrated in the following basins 1$haka, )++F27

i (outh 0aspianii #orth 0aspianiii sturtiv Mangyshlak

v %mu $arya3urkmenistan claims that it has )) billion barrel of natural gas reserves In 8a'akhstan oil

reserves are concentrated in 3angi' and 8arachaganak oil fields 1$haka, )++F2

'able 1: (il and Gas reser)es of &entral *sia

Billions of Barrels Trillion Cubic FeetCountry Proven Possible Total Proven Possible TotalAzerbaijan 7 32 39 7 32 39Kaza!stan 9"#$ 92 %$%"%32 % %& %&'%Tur(enistan '&&"%'7 3) 3)'&&"39'7 9"#$ 92 %$%"%32*zbeistan '3"'&9 2 2'3"2'&9 '&&"%'7 3) 3)'&&"39'7Note. From Central Asia: Centre of New Great Game y Ad#l (afee "han$ %&&/$The 0ialog#e$ '+1,$ ./2.

In 0entral %sia oil reserves are estimated to be F.>+ billion barrels 3he natural gasreserves are )>+ .>*+ trillion cubic feet 1$haka, )++F2

Pi+elines $outes: (il and gas +i+eline routes from &entral *sia


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Asian Affairs $%

Note. From Central Asia: Centre of New Great Game y Ad#l (afee "han$ %&&/$ The0ialog#e$ '+1,$ ./3.

8urecic 1)++2 stated that 9uality of 0entral %sian oil is very good 3he huge energyreserves and good 9uality attracts ma


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$7 The Advanced Contemporary Affairs (Book 92)

4a of 5a)#-Tilisi-Ceyhan oil ieline. Note. From !ostmodern 6merialism: Geooliticsand the Great Games . '12$ y 7ric 8alerg$ %&''$ Atlanta: Clarity !ress 6nc.

'he >estern Route

3his route runs from !aku to 3bilisi and the endpoint will be the eorgian port whichis (upsa %nother pipeline is !aku.3bilisi.0eyhan oil pipeline 1Walberg, )+2 (% and her ally3urkey decided to develop a route from !aku to 0eyhan which is a 3urkish port in the Mediterranean3his route bypasses /ussia Mihalka 1)++N2 Its ma


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Asian Affairs $8

4a of T#r)menistan-Afghanistan-!a)istan-6ndia ieline Note. From 6! and TA!6in the9New Great Game: Can !a)istan )ee its hoes high; y >billion cubic per year %fghanistan as the bridge between 0entral %sia and (outh %sia will en


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$$ The Advanced Contemporary Affairs (Book 92)

4a of 6ran-!a)istan-6ndia ieline Note. From A ieline thro#gh a tro#led land:Afghanistan$ Canada and the New Great 7nergy Game y >ohn Foster$ %&&?$ Foreign!olicy


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Asian Affairs +&&-trea( taly .

Blac -eaBCM9$$ (

:azpro( an8


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+&+ The Advanced Contemporary Affairs (Book 92)this they want to use their economic resources which are much valued in the global market 3heregimes of 'bekistan, 3urkmenistan and 8a'akhstan are e6ploiting this power rivalry in the regionby allowing western oil companies to invest in the region 1=u, )++, Petersen !arysch, )+2 3he0entral %sian states are building pipelines to e6port their resources to the world market 3hey are notbuilding pipelines with one country or under /ussian influence 3hey are building pipelines ondifferent routes 3his will reduce their dependence on one power /ussia and provide economicbenefits 1=u, )++2

Malashenko 1)+>2identified that the fate of 0entral %sian states depends upon theirstrategic choice 3hese states opted not to depend on one actor involved in the region 0entral %sianstates decided to develop links with different players in order to gain ma6imum benefits of theirinvolvement in the region 0%/s are establishing working relations with nited (tates, /ussia, 0hina

and 5urope 3he ob 8yrgy'stan allowed /ussia to establish her military base in 8ant

'bekistanprovided8arshi.8hanabad base to ( in )++ 3his base was later closed in )++Fafter ( opposed the operation by 'bek forces in %ndi


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Asian Affairs +&.

,ommon >ealth o" Indeendent States:

%fter the disintegration of (oviet nion the five states of 0entral %sia and the three states of3rans 0aspian region make a collective security arrangement which is known as the 0ommonWealth of Independent (tates 10I(21$ettke, *2$haka 1)++F2 stated that the important part of the0I( is the treaty which ensures the collective security which does not allow any 0I( member to 2stated following reasons for this acceptance7

3hese states wanted to eradicate e6tremism and terrorism from the region to ensure stability andsecurity of the region

3hese states wanted to come out of the /ussian and 0hinese influence by e6tending theirsupport and cooperation to the ( in the war against terrorism

0entral %sian (tates wanted to e6tract ma6imum economic benefits of their geopolitical positionby allowing routes and bases to the ( and #%3C troops 3hese states have shifted the focus ofthe ( and allies to the region by allowing them transit routes for the supply line in %fghanistan3his has shifted the attention of the ( and allies from Pakistan to these states 0entral %sianstates after these measures are gaining importance in the world politics from the securityperspectives also along with

the economic and energy dimensions 3he rent of the transit routes is a step to support their fragile economies 3he role of the 0entral

%sian (tates in the war against terrorism enhanced the nited (tates& involvement in the regionwhich is a geopolitical strategy of these states 3his involvement is helping these states to

overcome regional as well as internal threats and challenges 1Mankoff, )+>2


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+&0 The Advanced Contemporary Affairs (Book 92)Cne of the ma27

a2 8yrgy'stan concluded agreement in )++ allowing ( to use the Manas !ase 3his baseremained in the use of ( %ir =orce It provided transit facility ( used this base to transporte9uipment into the %fghanistan 1Mankoff, )+> 0ooley, )++2

b2 8arshi.8hanabad base is located in 'bekistan 3he ( and 'bekistan signed an agreement in)++ which allowed ( to use this base for the land transportation of e9uipment as well aspersonnel 3his base served as the logistic centre for ( missions and operations (.

'bekistan relations got adversely affected by the criticism of ( over the operation conductedby 'bek forces against the protestors in the city of %ndi2 stated that the alliedforces route through 0entral %sian (tates is costly as compared to routesthrough Pakistan but they are comparatively more secure

'ea Aeaves "or 'anks

) Stud( o" 'rade Ainks3 Pea!e and Per!etions in Pakistan3India3 )"*hanistan and IranAesha Siddi!a" A#i Ar!am" Aoun Abbas Sahi & Farid Kasi

)/stra!t

his paper aims to understand and e6plain the impact of trade and business on peace in (outh%sia focusing on Pakistan and its three neighbors7 %fghanistan, India and Iran 3he basicresearch 9uestion is if trade, especially formal trade relations will induce peace and whetherinstitutionali'ing of trade relations has stakeholders in Pakistan and its neighbors? While

there are many e6isting studies on trade relations, this research will bring new perspective from thebusiness community

3India, Pakistan and %fghanistan have been in a cycle of conflict for decades India and

Pakistan&s historical rivalry usually does not give hope to observers of peace and stability in (outh%sia %fghanistan and Pakistan have their own rivalry, though interdependent on India.Pakistanrelations Indeed, these are very comple6 sets of relationships grounded in animosity rather than

mutual understanding While Iran and Pakistan did not e6perience the kind of tension that can beobserved, from time to time, at other borders, the past three or more decades have seen a rise insectarian tension in Pakistan which feeds bilateral strain between Islamabad and 3ehran !ut all of


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Asian Affairs +&2this goes side by side with growing neo.liberal tendencies in the region, which means, policymakersthink in terms of improving economic performance as well

3his paper e6plores how the business community&s various interests are in favor or opposedto more open borders Would the possibilities for peace and stability in the region increase ifgovernments would


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+&5 The Advanced Contemporary Affairs (Book 92)3he first and more overbearing rivalry pertains to India.Pakistan bilateral ties which have

remained abnormal since their birth as independent states in %ugust -N 3he countries havefought threeanda.half conventional wars and hundreds of border skirmishes 3he 8ashmir valleyremains a ma


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Asian Affairs +&%3he relations started to change after the +s mainly on the issue of %fghanistan Cther

factors include the rising (audi influence that had certainly increased due to close cooperation afterN during the war in %fghanistan against (oviet forces Iran&s support of the idea of a changedethnic power balance in 8abul, which brought the (hia Ha'aras into the limelight versus the ma both countries signed a defense and several otheragreements Cne such agreement was linked to India developing the 0hahbahar port comple6 andthe 0hahbahar.Raran< 1%fghanistan2 railway link 3hese communication channels are meant toprovide access to goods from 0entral %sia to India via Iran Pakistan views this as offeringcompetition to its own wadar port which Islamabad is developing with 0hinese help 3his wouldnaturally undermine Pakistan&s future role in %fghanistan especially in reference to accessingresources of 0entral %sia While India and Iran are cooperating to develop infrastructure in

%fghanistan, Pakistan hopes to benefit from its partnership with 0hina, which has developed stakesin %fghanistan, and the cultural and historical linkage that e6ists between the Pustuns of Pakistanand %fghanistan

)re Pea!e and 'rade ,o-Related?

3he (outh %sian region emerges as a hotbed of tension and rivalry #evertheless, the areaalso offers many opportunities provided the various significant stakeholders find a way tocommunicate 3his paper aims to look at trade and its potential in facilitating peace and stability inthe region 3his is not the first paper on the sub


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+&7 The Advanced Contemporary Affairs (Book 92)and create opportunities mainly for themselves at the cost of others =rom the Mar6ist perspective,trade then is a tool of oppression and imperialism 3here is yet another point of view that e6aminestrade from in greater intricacy =or instance, 3imothy @ =ort argues that it is not percent of India&s, and India constitutes +FX of Pakistan&stotal foreign trade 1see following figures2 %ccording to a study conducted by the @ahore niversity ofManagement (ciences 1@M(2, the total trade 1e6ports plus imports2 between India and Pakistan in)+.) averaged only a little1e6ports plus imports2 between India and Pakistan in )+.)averaged only a little over E)F billion)

'able 1: P*./0'*N0 3P($' '( 0**$& $G/(N /'&'radeMa+4 506 million

ear AF:' B5' B= ?5 M05 ?P0 -0 Total2$$ 99%'& 2') $'% 32'7 3'$ 2'# %77' %7)'%

2$$7 )37'7 279'3 $'$ 29%'7 #'$ $') 2$)' %22'$2$$) %##7' #22'3 $'$ 3' '# $') 2%'7 2##)'#2$$9 %373'9 37'# $'$ 23&'3 3' %'$ 2%7'$ 2%9)'%2$%$ %)#'7 3') $'$ 27&'$ #'$ $'7 2)3'9 2))&'$2$%% 2$'3 9#7'2 $'$ 272'9 &'& %'3 3#7'7 #23#'92$%2 2$99'3 9'$ $'$ 3#)'$ &'7 %'3 3$$'9 3#&%'22$%3 %99)'% 7%)'# $'$ #$2'7 )'& $' 3%'# 3###'7Total %3$93'$ #33#'2 $'% 2&$'9 #$'& )'9 2$)'7

Historically, the situation was different especially up until *F when India constituted N+percent of Pakistan&s trade 3his situation had persisted since -N 3he *F war changedconditions drastically India tried to change the situation by granting Pakistan Most =avoured #ation1M=#2 status in * 3he idea was to generate incentives for peace for Pakistan by increasing itsshare of India&s trade 3he bilateral trade in * stood at ( E + million 3he M=# status hadlimited impact as it did not change the economic or political situation Cne of the reasons was thatPakistan did not reciprocate the gesture =urthermore, as many of the stakeholders from thecountry&s business and industry argue that trade could not take off due to India&s high #on.3ariff

!arriers 1#3!s2 which remain one of the ma


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Asian Affairs +&8India&s trade increase, nor did it pave way for political reconciliation between the two neighbors@ater, in a political initiative was initiated through the shortlived @ahore peace process and theresultant @ahore $eclaration 3rade was identified as one of the agendas in the composite dialogue3his process proved short lived as Pakistan %rmy launched a secret military operation L8argil& thatscuttled the peace process which was resumed later in )++- by the then Musharraf government thatseemed eager to resolve bilateral differences In fact, after )++- the Musharraf government tookinitiatives like increasing the number of items in the Lpositive& list of goods that India and Pakistancould trade in

0atching on the peace wave in the region multilateral aid donors $espite the announcement and willingness to open uptrade with India, the PPP government gradually lost its capacity to do the same In fact, there wasopposition against trade with India from within the Rardari presidency and certain segments of thePPP 3he agriculturist lobby was at the forefront in opposing the idea of granting M=# status to India3heir argument being that it would harm Pakistan&s agriculture that could not compete against a veryheavily protected Indian agricultural sector Members of the agriculture lobby also talk about the lackof transparency on the Pakistani side regarding the process 3he agriculture lobby, for instance, wasnot taken into confidence which led to their resistance at that point in time #onetheless, sources


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+&$ The Advanced Contemporary Affairs (Book 92)also talked about stakeholders in the government who were more inclined towards the militaryestablishment&s perspective of taking a cautious stance towards opening up trade with India

In fact, the Pakistan military&s threat perception vis.J.vis India seems to be one of thebiggest impediments to trade normali'ation between the two states 3his is despite that the electedgovernment of #awa' (harif has trade and peace with India as one of the primary agendas 3hefederal minister of commerce, 8hurram $astagir 8han was of the opinion that Pakistan has a lot togain with opening up trade links :#o country can grow economically without increasing regionaltrade @ook at 5urope, #orth %merican or (outheast %sia all prospering economies focus on theirregions so should we; is a philosophy that the young commerce minister believes in He furtherstated that both sides were working slowly but consistently in eliminating hindrances and

misunderstandings $espite the eagerness of the government the India.Pak trade continues to looklike a pipe dream, thought


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Asian Affairs ++&(ome critical segments of business and industry are readily available to support the

military&s resistance towards trade 3his is not to argue that the business community is not ready totrade with India In fact, one of the arguments made in the following sections of the paper, especiallythe section dealing with market perception, is greater willingness of Pakistani businessmen to tradewith India However, not all share such willingness While certain sectors appear more willing, someother critical sectors still remain resistant to the idea In fact, almost all the studies on tradeliberali'ation between the two states have identified four sectors which are sensitive to trade ordemand protectionist measures against free flow of Indian goods to the markets 3hese sectorsinclude agriculture, automobile, pharmaceutical, cotton ginning and te6tile

)*ri!ulture

3he agriculture sector was one of the main proponents against giving M=# status to India Itattracted attention because of the significant place agriculture has in Pakistan&s economy In )+).>agriculture contributed )-X to $P amounting to over /s F,-N- billion 1at current prices2 3hesector generates employment for over -FX of the country&s total labour force 3his means that about*+X of the rural population depends upon agriculture for its livelihood It has a share in the country&se6ports as well, such as a +X contribution in total e6ports in )+) 3he main items are rice1-- billion2, fruit 1/s >) billion2, fish 1/s )* billion2, raw cotton 1/s -N- billion2, and meat1/s F billion2> %lthough India&s agriculture in comparison contributes less, that is -+X of the$P at current prices in )+.) 1around Indian /s -,N>N billion which is e9uivalent to Pakistani/s )-,-> billion2,- the agriculture sector is considered socio.politically important and is estimatedat five times as large as Pakistan&s Its significance lies in the fact that the sector employs aboutF)X of the labour force

=or Pakistan&s growers the main concern is that Indian agriculture is heavily protected andsubsidi'ed so trade liberalisation could flood Pakistani markets with Indian goods and Pakistanicommodities will be pushed out due to higher cost of production 3he following table captures theseconcerns

'able 7: 0ubsidies Pro)ided in Financial 8ear 2912*mount in Millions 50D;- !ut more important, Pakistan serves as the crucial transit point for flow of drug relatedblack money to %fghan drug lords 3his illegal and undocumented economy was never eliminatedafter K In fact, it is claimed that the ( presence only changed the interlocutors and controllers ofthis trade without any impact on the actual business

/eferring to informal trade in legal items, Pakistan is a significant player in terms of suppliesof critical items like wheat and flour 3he following table and map point out border crossing forinformal trade

Pharmaceuticals are another high demand product which uses both formal and informalchannels %fghanistan is considered the biggest e6port destination for Pakistani medical drugs

%fghanistan has a share of almost twenty percent in Pakistan&s total e6ports of pharmaceutical goodswhich has an annual increase of thirty percent In )+, %fghanistan received Pakistani drugs worthE) million !ut there is far more which goes informally /espondents from the pharmaceuticaltrade suggest that these products smuggled into %fghanistan with prices inscribed in Pakistanicurrency are sold in there for the same amount of %fghan currency which doubles the profit margins

of the traders as well as e6porters Manufacturers tend to blame lack of procedures in 8abul thathinder smooth flow of business that forces producers to use informal means instead

'able Main /nformal #order ntry Points


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+.5 The Advanced Contemporary Affairs (Book 92)

4a of 6nformal trade echange oints

3he lack of procedures is considered as an opportunity to make money by many especiallythose involved in smuggling of vehicles and auto parts Pak.%fghan 0haman border is a heaven forboth smuggled cars and automobile spare parts Many of the showroom owners both local andmigrants from %fghanistan have become millionaires due to the illicit trade of automobile cars andspare parts /espondents from the trade suggest that cars of any brand are available at -+X theoriginal price

%ccording to an estimate by some of the respondent it was stated that annually from F+,+++to ++,+++ cars are smuggled from both $ubai and Bapan via %fghanistan It is also noted that stolencars from different parts of the country are brought to the remote districts of !aluchistan, broken intoits basic parts and then sold to the ma


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Asian Affairs +.%/eferring to traders supporting informal economy, this preference e6plains why many of the

respondents favored 3aliban regime as compared to %merican regime 3hey said informal trade wasmuch higher in 3aliban era as compared to %mericans (ome of the respondents complained aboutproliferation of stakeholders that have to be bribed While during the 3aliban regime they had to payto local commanders, now more people have to be bribed !ut financial kickbacks are not were in Balalabad and Nin 8abul 3he key informants and stakeholders were generally bitter about attitude of the Pakistangovernment as being not friendly and responsive 1a similar complaint was heard on the Pakistaniside as well2 In fact, in =ebruary )+> %fghan traders even wanted to complain to # authorities

over attitude of Pakistani authorities but were stopped due to intervention of %fghan commerceministry %ccording to one trader, his truck carrying goods worth (E F,+++ was stranded inPakistan for several weeks /esultantly, authorities asked him to pay (E )+,+++ in demurrage (o,he left the truck behind He further added that in )+> several %fghan traders left their trucks full ofgoods in Pakistan instead of paying high demurrage charges %gain in )+>, nearly >,F++ containerswere stuck at 8arachi for several months iven this attitude an %fghan official was of the view that:Pakistan never considered %fghanistan as a business opportunity 3hey always see it from asecurity perspective; %t occasions, this bitterness e6tends to reservations about Pakistan&s politicssuch as support to the 3aliban Many believe that Pakistan to be a source of support to the 3alibanwho then conduct violence in %fghanistan 3here was also an e6pression of greater resentmentagainst Pakistan&s intelligence agencies and Pun


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+.7 The Advanced Contemporary Affairs (Book 92)use like water, yogurt, milk medicines, are largely imported from Pakistan 3he shops are floodedwith Pakistan goods 3he history of %fghan refugees, who have lived in Pakistan and returned to

%fghanistan or whose families continue to live there, means links 3his also means a market that hasdeveloped a taste for Pakistani goods 3here are many who continue to travel back and forth to meetmembers of their e6tended families that have remained in Pakistan (uch connections have animpact =or instance, it was noticed that despite availability of medicines from India and Iran, whichwere available at cheaper prices, many preferred Pakistani medicine and food items 3he doctorswho have 9ualified from Pakistani institutions are preferred over those from other regional states/espondents also mentioned that in case of medical issues and emergencies people prefer toconsult Pakistani doctors which is a reason why private medical practice in Peshawar seems tothrive People tend to find shortcuts such as bribing the police and border security to cross over intoPakistan for medical emergency 3he tribal and ethnic connections help in such situations,particularly if it is a matter of women and children In this respect, access to Pakistan was found to beeasier than other countries that would re9uire valid documents In any case, the years of soledependence on Pakistan has resulted in good contacts across the border which has resulted insustained linkages 3he connection can be observed from the long 9ueues outside Pakistan&s highcommission and consulates

3he ethnic factor seems to play an important part in economic and social dependency$espite investment in %fghanistan by Iran, India, 0hina and other countries, respondents talkedabout a natural affinity with Pakistani goods and services 3here is, in fact, a need to distinguishbetween people&s bitterness on political issues and preference for Pakistani products and the countryat large While talking about problems created at border, bribery and other issues, most respondentsseemed to prefer Pakistan to other neighbors like Iran 3he ma


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Asian Affairs +.8

3he main feature of Iran.Pakistan trade ties pertains to the larger component of informaltrade It has become so significant that people have become much more comfortable with the idea ofinformal trade 3he ethnic differences and increase in sectarian tension has also played a critical rolein keeping the options limited 3oday, people in ma> products and Iran on >+2 It was also agreed that the P3% would ultimately be converted into a=ree 3rade %greement 1=3%2 3he governments also agreed to declare two of their border regions asLtwin provinces&-N While Iran developed its border posts and related facilities, the road from Quettato Iran border on Pakistan&s side denotes a dismal picture 3raders talked about absence of basicfacilities on a road, which is almost *++ km long, such as toilets %nyone using the road has to usethe traditional methods like holes dug into the ground used as toilets

$espite agreements and promises, Iran.Pakistan trade relations have remained limited toselect items 1see table + for Pakistan&s e6ports to Iran2

/ice is one of Pakistan&s most important e6ports to Iran %ccording to the data procured fromIranian 0ustoms, Iran imports about X of rice from %5, Pakistan India Pakistan has about-+X of market share which it feeds through both direct e6ports or indirectly 1appro6imately )+X2through $ubai However, Pakistani businessmen dealing in rice are apprehensive about India&s gains

in Iran&s market and Pakistan government&s inability to benefit from its advantage of having acommon border with Iran- In any case, Pakistani traders feel constrained due to their inability toopen a @etter of 0redit 1@02 because of the ( sanctions %lthough basic items like food, medicineand medical services are e6empted, (tate !ank of Pakistan is still unwilling to open the @0

'able 19


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+.$ The Advanced Contemporary Affairs (Book 92)

%ccording to a respondent the precarious law and order situation in the province of!aluchistan further aggravates the situation Many a times a container is hi


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Asian Affairs +0&view that @yari, 8arachi had most dumping stations because of the ethnic factor Ma


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+0+ The Advanced Contemporary Affairs (Book 92)also easier to avoid the bureaucratic red.tape %lso, because of the porous border there is always analternative to formal trade % larger incentive is also the channeling of drug trade and capital in whichPakistan plays a significant role 3here are many beneficiaries who may not like to be distracted byofficial restrictions nfortunately, for a combination of reasons there is little debate in Pakistan toformali'e trade and economic ties with %fghanistan

(imilarly, there is little debate regarding increasing trade ties with Iran with whom businesspotential dwindled since the N+s !ulk of trade with 3ehran is in the form of illegal trade whichmeans that dividends are not obvious to the common citi'en =or instance, there is a constant flow ofsmuggled Iranian oil into Pakistan which is used to circumvent high fuel prices !ut the advantage isobvious mainly to those who are direct beneficiaries 3he buyer may not be conscious or have the

information 3here is little plan or inclination to improving these trade relations which is primarily dueto competing geo.political interests in %fghanistan and sectarian.religious tension between the twostates 3he sectarian bias and resultant barriers cannot be underestimated In recent years a pro.Iran perspective is not allowed in newspapers, especially in the vernacular (uch issues speakvolumes about lobbies inside Pakistan that stop improvement in ties 3he sectarian and ethnic bias ison the Iranian side as well which has an impact in terms of trade with Pushtun dominant %fghanistan3he %fghan traders talked about relative discomfort due to ethnic reasons in dealing with 3ehrandespite that they were offered better trade concessions

#evertheless, and this is the second conclusion, improvement in trade relations are directlydependent on Pakistani state re.defining its priorities Islamabad ought to shift its emphasis frompurely military security to enhancing economic, social and cultural ties with its neighbors 3his,unfortunately, is not likely to happen as long as civil.military relations remain balanced in favor of thelatter Pakistan needs to bring about a paradigm shift as far as India and %fghanistan are concernedwhich does not seem likely in the near future (ome of the donors have begun to finance advocacycampaigns to build a consensus in Pakistan on trade, especially with India which is a good ideabecause this may generate the critical mass which is re9uired to pressure the state to shift itspriorities 5ven if the military has to be made to re.think its options, a critical mass of opinion that

favors trade liberali'ation is re9uired3hird, there is a need for greater dialogue amongst business community from across the

border both with India and %fghanistan and internally in Pakistan %t this


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Asian Affairs +0.resulted in reduction in business and cultural ties %lthough successive governments promise toimprove relations, the prospect of real change does not seem likely Interestingly, despite Iran andPakistan both being Muslim states, the passion for improving trade relations with Iran seems lesserthan for India 3he bulk of bilateral trade being informal also means that theimpact of economic cooperation is not visible to the common man 3heIranian oil is smuggled to ma


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+00 The Advanced Contemporary Affairs (Book 92)the 3aliban threats 3he overwhelming ma


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Asian Affairs +02%rmyK%fghan #ational (ecurity =orces would be, in the first place, a national shock for thenation looking forward for their ability to take up the challenge head on, resolutely andcompetently

ii Quite understandably, this kind of a doomsday scenario would ultimately result in >.F yearstakeover time of most of %fghanistan by the resistance force, reversal to the pre. Ksituation and the proclamation of the Islamic 5mirate of %fghanistan (till, however, pocketsof opposition to such a regime would be certainly there as was the case in the 3aliban&s*.)++ rule by the #orthern %lliance 3his, if at all it happens, may involve Iran again inthe repeat display of 4)+ in active support for the oppositionKresistance side fromthe periphery against the 3aliban rule at the centre, ie, 8abul erily, it would be very ironic

iii 0onse9uently, the political, diplomatic and militaryKsecurity boycottKsanctions of the 3aliban&s%fghanistan by the states of the region and the world at largeKthe international communitywould be 9uite intense 3here will be general de.recognition of the regime e6cept by themost important front line country.Pakistan, which would be doing it only with the overt orcovert approval of the (Kinternational community for the necessity of serving as a bridgebetween 3aliban&s %fghanistan and the rest of the world However, this scenario is the leastpossible and would be avoided by all concerned at all costs

Ima!t on PakistanPakistan.the frontline country, the third time in this part of the world, since the beginning of

the 0old War, would be.for better or worse.the most affected country" both at the bilateral andregional levels Pakistan, despite all the criticism levelled against it, has been playing a pivotal role inthe struggle against terrorism, particularly since K %nd though some of its policies in this regardmight not have clicked the way it had liked, Pakistan&s resolve and determination, in this connection,was second to none all along during the crises In this connection the :do more; mantra,notwithstanding, Pakistan&s contribution has been unmatched and is duly recogni'ed also, in thesame breath, by all the critics 4 (, %fghanistan, and Iran, to name a few In the same continuation,more worrisome is the fact that Pakistan&s closest friend, none other than the People&s /epublic of

0hina, has also shown its concern about the militancy in the 3ribal %reas of Pakistan which has itsrepercussions in ighur region of the country

Positive Ima!ti 0learly, Pakistan would immensely benefit from an economically and politically stable

%fghanistan Pakistan" which has already been contributing from time to time significanteconomicKfinancial and infrastructural development assistance to %fghanistan since )++) cangreatly increase their bilateral trade by taking it to F billion dollars mark in the ne6t two years3he two countries can further do well by

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