Asia Pacific TV

Extract

www.informatm.com/asiapacifictv Your global research partner

Our analysts have just completed the first of our market-leading set of regional TV market forecasts and analysis. These look forward over the next five years and provide a valuable insight into the varying patterns of change within the TV markets of each country.

Informa Telecoms & Media forecasts show that the Asia Pacific region will have 784 million TV households by 2015 and pay TV will increase to more than 400 million subscribers by that time. This research report will give you access to our highly granular TV forecasts and in-depth analysis of all the important developments in the Asia Pacific broadcast markets.

Asia Pacific TV

What’s new in this year’s edition:• Comprehensive forecasts to 2015 – including penetration rates

for triple-play and new operator specific forecasts

• Secondary set analysis – for a full picture of multichannel penetration

• The most up-to-date, crucial information – enabling you to maximise your opportunities within the region

• Market movements – new quick guides to the key developments in each country

• Country-by-country analysis – for 16 key territories, including the Indian and Chinese markets

• TV sets per household – what is the full extent of your target market?

This research is an essential resource for:• TV operators – learn more about how the experience of Asia

Pacific TV can fit into your business strategy

• TV set manufacturers – find out where new technologies are gaining traction

• Investment Banks – gain valuable insights into which countries will enable you to maximise your investment opportunities

• TV content owners – discover the strategies your competitors are using and find out valuable insights into Asia Pacific viewing patterns

• Analysts, legal and financial – use our forecasts, historic data and independent analysis to build your knowledge of this region and to identify where your own expert knowledge may be required

• Broadcast technology companies – as a fast-growing region, the Asia Pacific offers important new revenue streams. .

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“At end-2015, the Asia Pacific region will have more than 400 million digital homes; triple the end-2009 figure.Adam Thomas, Research Manager, Informa Telecoms & Media”

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Asia Pacific TVwww.informatm.com/asiapacifictv

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About the analysts

Join our analyst community on LinkedIn, visit: www.informatm.com/linkedin

Adam Thomas, Media Research Manager, Informa Telecoms & Media

Adam Thomas is the Media Research Manager within Informa Telecoms & Media’s Industry Research division, responsible for Informa’s output in the TV sector. His team is responsible for much of the content on the TV Intelligence Centre. Adam has published research on the TV sectors in Asia Pacific, Latin America, North America, the Middle East, Africa and across Europe.

Ted Hall, Senior Research Analyst, Informa Telecoms & Media

Ted Hall is a Senior Research Analyst in Informa Telecoms & Media’s TV reports team. He has analysed all aspects of the TV industry and has covered countries in all the geographical regions. His areas of expertise cover some of the world’s most active and lucrative markets, such as the US, UK and Japan.

Simon Molony, TV Analyst, Informa Telecoms & Media

Simon Molony joined Informa Telecoms & Media as a TV analyst in 2009. He writes country profiles for the TV Intelligence Centre, focusing primarily to date on the Western Europe, Asia Pacific and Latin America markets. He also contributes to the Digital TV and Television Business International yearbooks.

Adrian Reynolds, Media Research Analyst, Informa Telecoms & Media

Adrian Reynolds joined Informa Telecoms & Media in February 2010 as a Media Research Analyst. His primary area of research is the TV industry, covering topics including cable, satellite, IPTV, mobile TV, HDTV and TV advertising. Additionally, he focuses on region- and country-specific organizations and TV networks. His research covers a wide range of countries providing updated information for the Intelligence Centre, Digital TV and Television Business International yearbooks.

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www.informatm.com © 2010 Informa Telecoms & Media

ASIA PACIFIC TV

18 June 2010 Adam Thomas

The Asia Pacific region will have 784 million TV households by 2015, an increase of more than 94 million

compared to 2009. TV households have an average 1.4 TV sets per home, leading to well over 1.1 billion sets

across the region by 2015.

Of the 784 million total, 43% will subscribe to cable (both analog and digital). This puts it well clear of the

second-placed platform - DTH with a 9% share, which is being boosted by strong growth in India. Some 33%

of TV households will take only analog terrestrial signals by 2015. These 259 million homes show that

subscription and digital systems will still have plenty of room for growth beyond the forecast period.

Pay TV will have more than 400 million subscribers by 2015, generating revenues in excess of US$40 billion.

In addition to good progress from the regional giants China and India, strong pay TV subscriber growth will

also be experienced in emerging markets like Vietnam and Indonesia (see fig. 1).

Fig. 1: Asia Pacific, pay TV growth markets 2009-2015

Despite lower pay TV subscriber growth than most of its regional neighbors, Japan‟s higher ARPU level

means it remains dominant in revenue terms, accounting for 31% of the region‟s pay TV revenues in 2009.

This share will fall to 29% in 2015, mainly at the expense of China, which is catching it up fast and will be just

behind, also with a 29% share, in 2015 (from 20% in 2009).

The region‟s big success story of recent years has been the growth of pay DTH services in India. India

overtook Japan as the region‟s leading DTH market in 2008 and by 2015 will account for 63% of the region‟s

DTH subscribers. This trend is reflected in Informa‟s operator forecasts for 2009-2015, with five Indian DTH

operators expected to add more than 20 million subscribers between them in that period – led by Reliance

with a 6 million increase (see fig. 2).

www.informatm.com © 2010 Informa Telecoms & Media

Fig. 2: Asia Pacific, top 10 pay TV operators by forecast subscriber growth, 2009-2015

There are increasingly positive signs for digital TV in the region. Competition between the platforms is

intensifying – which has pushed digital upgrades up the agenda of many operators. Informa Telecoms &

Media is therefore forecasting that a 21% digital TV penetration rate at end-2009 will increase to 54% by end-

2015. By 2015, digital penetration will have reached 100% in four markets, with another four expected to have

achieved a penetration rate of 70% or more.

Despite this generally positive picture, digital upgrades will not be easy to achieve in some markets. In the

cable sector in particular, subscribers are taking some convincing of the need to upgrade from analog to

digital. China‟s recent more conservative approach to media reform has also continued, meaning that the

market will take some time to reach its potential. While the Chinese government has become more cautious

on some issues, such as DTH roll out, its proactive approach to converting analog signals to digital is more

positive. It is also experiencing significant IPTV growth and by 2015 is expected to account for 45% of the

region‟s IPTV homes.

Broadband network upgrades in some territories make IPTV well-placed to become a significant rival to cable

and DTH, although it will not be a ubiquitous success. A lack of compelling content, plus insufficient network

capacity, will hold back IPTV from greater growth. This environment will often restrict it to be marketed as a

„free‟ add-on service within a multi-play bundle.

One of the advantages of a relatively late move towards digital conversion is that the region has not had to

take risks with untried technologies or business models, allowing nations elsewhere to learn these lessons for

it. However, several Asian countries have well-established electronics manufacturers and these companies

are keen to develop proprietary hardware and software not only for their domestic markets but also for the

lucrative export sector.

China overtook Japan as the region‟s digital leader in 2007 and by end-2009 took 46% of the regional total.

The sheer size of China will see it become an even-more dominant force and by 2015 China will account for

more than half (55%) of the region‟s digital homes. India will take 20% and Japan 9%, leaving only 16% - or 63

million – for the other countries in the region. South Korea will rank fourth and contribute 14 million digital TV

homes – or 3% of the region‟s total.

www.informatm.com © 2010 Informa Telecoms & Media

Average revenue per subscriber (ARPU) will increase in the short-term, as the number of services on offer –

and the subsequent tiering of channels and introduction of PPV/VOD packages – rises. But ARPU will start to

decline in some categories towards the end of the forecast period, with the impact of dual- and triple-play

bundles pushing down prices (see fig. 3). Regional ARPU will remain relatively low, but this reflects the major

influence that India, and particularly China, (where subscription fees are low) have on the region.

Fig. 3: Asia Pacific TV, pay TV ARPU 2005-2015

AUSTRALIA TV UPDATE

The number of pay TV subscribers continues to rise, with Foxtel still comfortably leading Austar

However, online and IP-based services may disrupt the pay sector – Telstra has launched a download-based offering, Fetch TV is set to launch IPTV with local ISPs, and several other companies have introduced online TV services

Telstra faces government pressure to divest its cable TV holdings and to sell its stake in Foxtel. Network Seven and Liberty Global have expressed interest in acquiring its Foxtel stake

Foxtel launched HD services in June 2008 and Austar followed suit in November 2009. All national networks are required to broadcast a portion of their content in HD

Interest in DTT remains strong, with 61% of TV households using the platform by end-2009. A free satellite service will be launched to fill gaps in coverage. All the national networks are expanding their digital portfolios.

1.1 Overview

The Department of Broadband Communications & the Digital Economy put pay TV penetration at 33% in early

2010. Three conglomerates dominate the pay TV sector: Publishing and Broadcasting (PBL), News Corp. and

Telstra. Each company has interests in terrestrial TV, pay TV and telecoms. The three companies are also

partners in pay TV market leader Foxtel.

Most pay TV subs take DTH, as the cable sector is small and IPTV is yet to launch. However, the market

dynamic could change in 2010. Telstra has tentatively entered the IP-based TV sector by launching a

download-based service T-Box in December 2009. It has so far stopped short of moving towards full-IPTV in

order to avoid angering its Foxtel co-owner News Corp.

Malaysian-backed Fetch TV, on the other hand, has no such loyalties and therefore looks set to push a highly

competitive IPTV service. In partnership with local ISPs, it is reported to be going after crucial content, such as

the Australian Rules Football (AFL) contract for 2011-2016.

www.informatm.com © 2010 Informa Telecoms & Media

In September 2009, the government announced its intention to split dominant telco Telstra into two separate

entities to increase competition. Telstra was informed it would have to divest itself of its cable TV holding and

separate its wholesale and retail businesses.

While the reforms are technically voluntary, Telstra faces stiff penalties for refusing to cooperate; including the

government preventing the company from acquiring new wireless broadband spectrum. As a final assurance

for compliance, the government has threatened to, if necessary, pass legislation forcing the reform on Telstra.

A relaxation in media legislation in 2007 ended foreign and cross media ownership restrictions. Previously a

free-to-air channel owner could not also control more than 15% of a newspaper in the same city, and vice

versa. Foreign companies were restricted to a 15% stake in a broadcaster or 25% of a newspaper. The

relaxations allow media companies to own up to two of the three media assets (TV, radio or print) in the same

region.

Another review of the terrestrial sector is set for 2011. The government is concerned that, with content moving

online, “many regulations are out of date already and others soon will be”.

Those with interests in pay TV continue to voice their opposition to the „anti-siphoning‟ list, which prevents pay

TV providers from securing exclusive rights to listed sports events. News Corp. has called the anti-siphoning

regulations a “protection racket” for the commercial networks. News Corp has also criticized the government‟s

decision to allow the commercial networks to offer one extra DTT channel, thus creating more competition for

Foxtel.

While the anti-siphoning list will continue, one change to it could benefit Foxtel. Terrestrial broadcasters can

still acquire rights to major sporting events before pay TV operators, but the 2007 regulation changes

introduced a „use-it-or-lose-it‟ clause to prevent the terrestrials from buying rights on the list but not fully

screening them.

DTT was in 61% of households (including homes using it as a secondary service) by end-2009. Uptake was

boosted when services relaunched under the Freeview banner in November 2008.

Fig. 1: Australia, split of TV households by platform, 2003-2009

Report contents

• Summary• Forecasts• Cable/MMDS• Digital Pay DTH• IPTV• DTT/Free DTH

• Asia Pacific TV overview• Asia Pacific TV: Good news• Asia Pacific TV: Forecasts (2015)• Pay TV revenues by country• Selected pay TV operators

• Key regional factors• ARPU (Average revenue per user)• Asia Pacific: Pay TV ARPU patterns• Digital progress• Digital TV penetration of TV households

Contents:• Australia• China• Hong Kong

• India• Indonesia• Japan• Malaysia

• New Zealand• Pakistan• Philippines• Singapore

• South Korea• Sri Lanka• Taiwan• Thailand• Vietnam

• Overview• Pay TV platforms and operators• IPTV• Mobile TV

• DTT• Online TV and video• TV viewing and programming• TV advertising• Forecasts

Please note: Contents correct at time of printing. For a full table of contents visit www.informatm.com/asiapacifictv

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

PROFILES OF 16 COUNTRIES

FORECASTS AND HISTORICAL MARKET DATA (2005-2015)

REGIONAL REPORTS (PDF):

SPREADSHEET (EXCEL) FEATURING:

PRESENTATION (POWERPOINT) FEATURING:

COUNTRIES COVERED BY THE ASIA PACIFIC TV REPORT: INCLUDES FORECASTS FOR 14 COUNTRIES:

Asia Pacific TV

TV COUNTRY FACTSHEETS TO END-4Q09:

• SplitofTVhouseholdsbyplatform

• Multichannelmarketsharebymajoroperator

• OwnershipstructuresforthemainpayTVoperators

• Broadbandsubscribers

• Audiencesharebychannel

• Mobilesubscriptionsbyoperator

• DigitalTerrestrialTV

• Householdsconvertedtodigitalbyregion

• Shareofprimetimeviewingbychannel

• Toprankedprograms2009

• Toprankedregularprograms2009

• Ownershipstructuresforthemainchannels

• GrossadvertisingspendingforcommercialTVnetworks

• ShareofadvertisingrevenuesbycommercialTVnetworks

ASIA PACIFIC FORECASTS BY COUNTRY, 2005-2015:

• AsiaPacificTVforecasts

• PayTVsubscribersbyoperator

• MonthlypayTVARPU

• PayTVrevenues

• PPV/VODrevenues

• IPTVVODrevenues

• DigitalpayDTHPPVrevenues

• DigitalcableVODrevenues

• Subscriptionrevenues

• DigitalTVhouseholdsasa%ofTVhouseholds

• DigitalTVhouseholds

• PayTVsubscribersasa%ofTVhouseholds

• PayTVsubscribers

• MonthlyIPTVARPU

• IPTV:Triple-playARPU

• IPTV:Dual-playARPU

• IPTV:Stand-aloneARPU

• IPTV:Triple-playTVrevenues

• IPTV:Dual-playTVrevenues

• IPTV:Stand-aloneTVrevenues

• IPTVrevenues

• IPTV:Triple-playhouseholds

• IPTV:Dual-playhouseholds

• IPTV:Stand-alonehouseholds

• PrimaryIPTVhouseholdsasa%ofTVhouseholds

• PrimaryIPTVhouseholds

• TotalIPTVhouseholdsasa%ofTVhouseholds

• TotalIPTVhouseholds

• MonthlydigitalDTHARPU

• DigitalDTHrevenues

• DigitalpayDTHhomesasa%ofTVhouseholds

• DigitalpayDTHhouseholds

• MonthlycableTVARPU

• MonthlydigitalcableTVARPU

• MonthlyanalogcableTVARPU

• CableTVrevenues

• DigitalcableTV:Triple-playARPU

• DigitalcableTV:Dual-playARPU

• DigitalcableTV:Stand-aloneARPU

• DigitalcableTVrevenues:Triple-playsubscribers

• DigitalcableTVrevenues:Dual-playsubscribers

• DigitalcableTVrevenues:stand-alonesubscribers

• DigitalcableTVrevenues

• AnalogcableTVsubscriptionrevenues

• DigitalcableTVsubscribersasa%ofTVhouseholds

• DigitalcableTV:Triple-playsubscribers

• DigitalcableTV:Dual-playsubscribers

• DigitalcableTV:Stand-alonesubscribers

• DigitalcableTVsubscribers

• AnalogcableTVsubscribersasa%ofTVhouseholds

• AnalogcableTVsubscribers

• CableTVsubscribersasa%ofTVhouseholds

• CableTVsubscribers

• DigitalFreeDTHTVhouseholdsasa%ofTV

households

• DigitalFreeDTHTVhouseholds

• PayDigitalTerrestrialTVrevenues

• TotalDigitalTerrestrialTVhouseholdsasa%ofTVhouseholds

• TotalDigitalTerrestrialTVhouseholds

• PrimaryDigitalTerrestrialTVhouseholdsasa%ofTV

households

• PrimaryDigitalTerrestrialTVhouseholds

• PrimaryDigitalTerrestrialTVhouseholds

• TVsetsperhousehold

• TVsets

• TVhouseholdsasa%ofhouseholds

• Households

• Population

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