asia pacific energy research centre natural gas demand in the apec region shiro konishi general...
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Asia Pacific Energy Research
Centre
Natural Gas Demand in the APEC Region
Shiro KONISHIGeneral Manager
Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC)
APEC EGCFE Workshop 2005Taipei, Chinese Taipei
21 – 23 March 2005
11
APEC LNG Workshop 2005, Taipei, Chinese Taipei, 21-23 March 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
• Natural gas supply/demand outlook
• Gas market reform in the APEC region
• Key factors affecting the gas market
• Notable development in APEC
• Summary
Outline of Presentation
APEC LNG Workshop 2005, Taipei, Chinese Taipei, 21-23 March 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
APEC Regional Grouping
Russia
JapanKorea
Chinese Taipei
Philippines
USA
Mexico
Canada
Chile
Peru
New Zealand
Australia
China
IndonesiaMalaysia
Singapore
Thailand
Viet Nam
Papua New Guinea
Brunei Darussalam
Hong Kong, China North America
Oceania Latin America
Northeast Asia
Southeast Asia
APEC LNG Workshop 2005, Taipei, Chinese Taipei, 21-23 March 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
Gas Trade Flows in APEC Region
Russia
JapanKorea
Chinese Taipei
Philippines
USA
Mexico
Canada
Chile
Peru
New Zealand
Australia
China
IndonesiaMalaysia
Singapore
Thailand
Viet Nam
Papua New Guinea
Brunei Darussalam
Hong Kong, China
Southeast Asia
LNG Gas Consumer
Pipeline Gas
Consumer
LNG Gas Consumer
APEC LNG Workshop 2005, Taipei, Chinese Taipei, 21-23 March 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
Russia 2.0 %
China 8.3 %Oceania 2.6 %SE Asia 3.9%NE Asia 3.3%Latin America 6.3%
North America 1.8 %
• Gas Demand to increase at AAGR of 2.6% (1999-2020)
Natural Gas Demand in APEC Region
APEC LNG Workshop 2005, Taipei, Chinese Taipei, 21-23 March 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
China
L America
NE Asia
SE Asia
8.3
3.93.3
6.3
2.61.8
Source: APERC
Natural Gas Demand in APEC Region
• China to command the highest AAGR at 8.3% (2000-2020)
APEC LNG Workshop 2005, Taipei, Chinese Taipei, 21-23 March 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
Source: APERC
• Emerging demand from China and North America• Increasing demand mainly driven by Power Sector
Contribution to Incremental Gas Demand (1999-2020)
APEC LNG Workshop 2005, Taipei, Chinese Taipei, 21-23 March 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
Oil
Coal
1135
1951
NRE 1.1 %
Nuclear 1.7 %
Hydro 2.7 %
Gas 2.6 %
Oil 2.1 %
Coal 2.1 %
Gas
• TPES to increase at AAGR of 2.1% between 1999-2020
Source: APERC
Primary Energy Supply in APEC Region
APEC LNG Workshop 2005, Taipei, Chinese Taipei, 21-23 March 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
• Technology• CCGT(Combined-Cycle gas turbine): thermal efficiency of over
50%
• Environmental Issue:
• Kyoto Protocol / Climate Change• Power Generation
• A fastest growth rate of 4.1% than coal • Increasing share of gas used for power N.Z.(31.7-66.9%),China(18.4%-46.8%),C.T.(51-71%)
• Increasing share of electricity from Gas-fired
plant Singapore(23-52%), Mexico(17.4-48.3%),Philippine(0.5-26.6%)
Drivers for Power Generation
APEC LNG Workshop 2005, Taipei, Chinese Taipei, 21-23 March 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
NRE 2.9 %
Hydro 2.7 %
Nuclear 1.7 %
Gas 4.1 %
Coal 2.5 %
Gas
• Total energy supply for power generation to increase at AAGR of 2.5% (1999-2020)
Source: APERC
Primary Fuel for Power Generation
APEC LNG Workshop 2005, Taipei, Chinese Taipei, 21-23 March 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
Singapore
Mexico
Philippines
Source: APERC
Share of Gas in Power Generation Mix • Singapore to post the highest increase in gas use
followed closely by Mexico and the Philippines
APEC LNG Workshop 2005, Taipei, Chinese Taipei, 21-23 March 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
C.T.
U.S.A
MexicoChile China
N.Z
Australia
Indonesia
• Increasing gas demand mainly for power generation
Share of Gas for Power Generation Use
APEC LNG Workshop 2005, Taipei, Chinese Taipei, 21-23 March 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
• Gas Market reform
• Future LNG Consumers
• Nuclear Policy in Power Generation
• Notable Energy Developments in APEC Region
• Future Climate Change Iniatives: Kyoto Protocol
• Global interaction of markets
• New cross-border pipeline infrastructure
Key Factors Affecting the Gas Market
APEC LNG Workshop 2005, Taipei, Chinese Taipei, 21-23 March 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
• Mature exporters with vertically integrated monopolies
• Major exporters to other APEC economies• Ex: Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia
• Recent Gas Developers with vertically
integrated monopolies
• Largely self-sufficient in gas supply• Ex: PNG, Peru, Philippines, Viet Nam
Gas Markets in the APEC Region
APEC LNG Workshop 2005, Taipei, Chinese Taipei, 21-23 March 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
• Competition at the edge• Economies allow competing gas suppliers• Ex: HK, Mexico, NZ
• Dominant Supplier with long distance pipelines• Price regulation may make it difficult to invest• Ex: China, Russia
Gas Markets in the APEC Region
APEC LNG Workshop 2005, Taipei, Chinese Taipei, 21-23 March 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
• Importer with Wholesale Competition and Single Buyer
• Heavy reliance on gas imports• Ex: Japan, Korea, Chinese Taipei, Thailand
• Evolving Retail Competition with Customer Choice• End-use customer have choice of gas
supplier• Ex: Australia, Canada, Chile, United States
Gas Markets in the APEC Region
APEC LNG Workshop 2005, Taipei, Chinese Taipei, 21-23 March 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
Future LNG Consumers in APEC Region
RussiaCanada
Peru
Australia
Malaysia
Viet Nam
Papua New Guinea
Brunei Darussalam
Hong Kong, China
Japan
Korea
Chinese Taipei
USA
Existing LNG Customer
Mexico
Philippines
Chile
New Zealand
China
Indonesia
Singapore
Thailand
Potential LNG Customer
Source: Strategies Consulting Ltd
APEC LNG Workshop 2005, Taipei, Chinese Taipei, 21-23 March 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
• New & Facility Capacity Expansion• Australia: Greater Sunrise & Gorgon LNG project• Brunei Darussalam: LNG 6th train expansion project• Indonesia: third Tangguh LNG Project• Malaysia: Tiga Project• Russia: Sakhalin-1,2 Projects
• Potential Cross-border Pipeline Infrastructure• USA-Canada: Arctic-Canada-US Project• Japan-Russia: Sakhalin-1 Project• South Korea-Russia: Kovykta Project • China-Russia: Sakhalin or Irkutsk Project• Malaysia-Thailand: Pipeline linked to Gas-fired plant
Notable Energy Developments in APEC Region
APEC LNG Workshop 2005, Taipei, Chinese Taipei, 21-23 March 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
• New Potential Gas Supplier• Peru: a proposal to export gas from Camisea Field
• New LNG Receiving Terminal Plan• USA/Mexico: New LNG terminal in U.S. Atlantic,
Pacific Coast and Gulf of Mexico• Chile: New LNG terminal project• Chinese Taipei: Second Taichung harbor LNG
terminal• China: Guangdong, Fujian LNG terminal• Korea: Posco, Gwangyang LNG terminal• New Zealand: developing LNG terminal
• Non-Nuclear Homeland Policy• Chinese Taipei
Notable Energy Developments in APEC Region
APEC LNG Workshop 2005, Taipei, Chinese Taipei, 21-23 March 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
• Growing Gas Demand• Increasing demand mainly driven by Power
Generation• Environmental Issue: Climate change/Kyoto Protocol• Emerging Gas Market: China, India, north America • CNG (compressed natural gas ) vehicles
• Increasing Competitiveness on Gas market• Deregulation/regulatory reform in Gas and Power
Market• Flexible in trade
• Security of Gas Supply• Integrated activity and cooperation in the region• Cross-border pipeline infrastructure• Mid to long term contract with flexibility
Summary
APEC LNG Workshop 2005, Taipei, Chinese Taipei, 21-23 March 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
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