asia mid-year review & outlook · • acetone & phenol. unparalleled pricing and analytical...

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ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK MARKET DEVELOPMENTS THAT HAVE SHAPED THE ASIAN CHEMICAL MARKETS IN H1 AND WHAT TO EXPECT IN THE COMING MONTHS Key markets covered: Alcohols Aromatics Base Oils Fibre Intermediates Olefins Plastics/Polymers Rubber Solvents And so much more... 2 18

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Page 1: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

ASIAMID-YEAR REVIEW amp OUTLOOK

MARKET DEVELOPMENTS THAT HAVE SHAPED THE ASIAN CHEMICAL MARKETS IN H1 AND WHAT TO EXPECT IN THE COMING MONTHS

Key markets covered

AlcoholsAromaticsBase Oils

Fibre IntermediatesOlefinsPlasticsPolymers

RubberSolventsAnd so much more

2 18

QUICK NAVIGATIONALCOHOLSbull Methanol

AROMATICSbull Benzenebull Xylenesbull Paraxylenebull Styrene Monomerbull Toluene

BASE OILSbull Base oils

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESbull PTAbull PETbull MEG

OLEFINSbull Ethylenebull Propylenebull Butadiene

PLASTICSPOLYMERSbull Polyethylenebull Polypropylene

RUBBERbull SBR

SOLVENTSbull Acetone amp Phenol

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

| 02Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

ASIA METHANOL FACES SUPPLY-SIDE PRESSURES INTO H2By Kite Chong

Supply-side pressures may continue to weigh on Asiarsquos spot methanol prices into the second half of 2018 following completion of plant turnarounds at major suppliers in the Middle East and with two new plants coming on stream in Iran

Chinarsquos methanol import prices - the benchmark for Asia - have eased in recent weeks but remained higher compared with levels in the past two years

The recent weakness was attributed to a demand slowdown due to shutdowns of major methanol-to-olefins (MTO) facilities with some Chinese end-users emerging as sellers of methanol in the domestic spot market

Downward price pressures may intensify in Asia as export volumes from the Middle East are expected to normalize by late June or early July

Iran which is a major exporter of methanol to China is expected to start up two news facilities with a combined capacity of almost 4m tonnesyear in the second half of 2018

ALCOHOLSMETHANOL

A 23m tonneyear plant operated by Kaveh Galss in Dayyer is due to come on stream in the third quarter while Marjan Petrochemicalrsquos 165myear plant is scheduled to begin production in the fourth quarter The bulk of these output will be for exports

In the US a 175m tonneyear methanol plant ndash the countryrsquos biggest ndash in Beaumont Texas is due to come on stream by the end of June The plant which is now

mechanically complete is a 5050 joint venture between OCI and Consolidated Energy Ltd

There is a possibility that spot cargoes from this plant may head to Asia since South America which is the USrsquo main export market for methanol could face an oversupply

Asiarsquos spot methanol prices were on a general uptrend in the second quarter after

Back to Quick Navigation | 03Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian methanol markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 04Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

weakening in the first three months of the year according to ICIS data

Demand was dented in February by the Lunar New Year holidays across most of northeast and southeast Asia with the Chinese markets closed for a full week

In mid-March the arbitrage window opened for one to two weeks allowing cargoes from China to flow into other parts of Asia including India where prices were higher due to tight supply

AROMATICSBENZENE

ASIA BENZENE DEMAND MAY IMPROVE SUPPLY TO STAY LONG INTO H2By Clive Ong

Asiarsquos benzene demand may improve in July-August with the expected restart of downstream plants from turnarounds with supply to be curtailed by scheduled shutdowns of two regional facilities

But the high inventories in the key China market as well as along the supply chain in Asia will require time to whittle down which will hinge on the strength of demand across Asia in the third quarter

Strong run rates at benzene units in Asia amid turnarounds at downstream styrene monomer (SM) phenol and methyl diphenyl di-isocyanate (MDI) plants caused the build-up in stocks across the region in the first half of this year

Inventories in the key China market piled up above 230000 tonnes in May this year from around 150000 tonnes in December 2017

ldquoMost downstream turnarounds will complete in May and June hence benzene consumption will likely increase from the third quarterrdquo a Singapore-based trader said

Availability of benzene will also be curtailed as SK Global and Ulsan Aromatics have scheduled maintenance at their plants in the second half of MayJune

New supplies could also hit Asia in the third quarter with the start-up Petro Rabighrsquos new 400000 tonneyear benzene facility in the second quarter although operations at this plant remains erratic

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refineryrsquos 250000 tonneyear plant is expected to have benzene cargoes available in July

ldquoDemand for benzene in Asia and the US in the third quarter will play an important role in reducing the supply in the regionrdquo said another trader in Singapore

Back to Quick Navigation | 05Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The spot east-west arbitrage window has not stayed open throughout the first half of 2018 hampering shipping of cargoes to the US South Korea and Japan are key exporters of benzene to the US

ldquoThe arbitrage window was largely open in April but became not viable in Mayrdquo said a South Korea-based producer

Benzene is a base chemical used to make other chemicals such as SM phenol and caprolactam

In the second quarter suppliers in the region were grappling with excess inventories and a lack of outlets for their cargoes

Most key buyers in China Taiwan and southeast Asia have sufficient supplies with little appetite for spot cargoes Lackluster demand caused the CFR (cost amp freight) China prices to fall below FOB (free on board) Korea prices according to ICIS data

Premium for spot parcels into Taiwan (CFR) also declined to the low single digits over FOB Korea in the first half of May as buyers had little spot interest

The situation was just as dismal in southeast Asia where FOB SE Asia prices traded at a discount of $35tonne to FOB Korea at one point in the second half of April

In India FOB India trades were at a discount of more than $50tonne to FOB Korea as demand waned

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian benzene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 06Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

AROMATICSXYLENES

ASIA MX LIKELY TO BE UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 2018 ON WEAK DEMANDBy Deborah Lee

Asian mixed xylenes are likely to face headwinds in H2 2018 on weaker demand from the gasoline blending sector as well as increasing length in downstream markets

Demand for xylenes as a gasoline blending component in China has softened due to lower crude oil prices

Brent futures have come off from a recent peak of over $80bbl to hover at around $75-7750bbl range in June breaking an uptrend seen earlier in the year

Prices of octane boosters typically rise when crude is on an upswing as gasoline margins are expected to increase

Adding to the bleak outlook for gasoline blending materials stockpiles of blending gasoline within China are plentiful sources said

The isomer-grade xylene (IX) cargoes are mainly used as a feedstock for downstream paraxylene (PX) but upcoming capacity will keep a lid on spot IX prices

The new PX production facilities are largely integrated and do not require additional procurement of IX

Already the spread between PX and IX has narrowed from $180-190tonne to $140-150tonne with $120-140tonne being the breakeven point for producers

Earlier in the first half of 2018 strong China demand and firm crude had pushed mixed xylene prices up

Fundamentally demand from China pushed prices higher as the countryrsquos imports of IX had been persistently higher since the end of 2017

Demand for IX as a gasoline blending component was one major factor for the increase in appetite for the material while

another was that an integrated plant in China was purchasing spot IX in the market as a feedstock for its PX plant due to issues with its own IX cargoes

Margins for PX had remained at healthy levels despite the strength in the IX market keeping buying interest in IX as a feedstock healthy

Concerns remained over Chinarsquos new tax policy aimed to reduce tax evasion for gasoline blenders which was originally planned to begin 1 March but the impact was tempered by the clear uptrend in crude futures as well as a strong Chinese yuan

Strength in the yuan helped boost demand for imports as US dollar cargoes were more competitive as a result

Buyers at the same time sought IX cargoes over solvent-grade xylene (SX) on concerns that Chinese authorities would implement an additional consumption tax on mixed aromatics which shares the same HS code as SX There has yet to be an official announcement on the additional consumption tax

Further exacerbating the situation was tight supply with a Japanese producer was scheduled to be shut from June to August for maintenance greatly reducing supply of IX in the region

But the spike in spot prices sparked concerns that demand was unsustainable at that point -- gasoline blending margins were unappealing and stockpiles of blended gasoline in China were high

In May the sharp increase in IX prices eroded PX margins as well adding to concerns that buying interest was not sufficient to keep the market discussions at such high levels

Prices slipped after peaking at $867tonne on 10 May

This was offset when Chinarsquos Maoming Petrochemical successfully started up and achieved on-spec cargoes at its phase II aromatics unit in Guangdong on 20 May The plant is able is produce 400000 tonnesyear of IX

With the new plant adding to domestic supply in China the prospect of import demand was looking dim

Back to Quick Navigation | 07Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Domestic prices of IX in east China were now cheaper than imported prices the CFR northeast Asia price now commanding a small premium to the import parity of local spot discussions

With gasoline blending margins down and ample cheaper substitutes available demand for SX has also taken a hit

But supply remained tight for SX in China with buying interest strong in recent weeks although buyers have lowered bids in line with the fall in the domestic market

Inventory levels have recovered from just 900 tonnes in the middle of May and continue to hover around 5000 tonnes In 2017 weekly SX stockpiles in east China averaged 17172 tonnes

The supply situation was unlikely to ease with production of SX in the region limited due to increasing reliance on lighter feeds such as LPG

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian mixed xylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 08Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Pricing IntelligenceAccess independent price assessments that meet IOSCOrsquos PRA Principles and are widely trusted and used as benchmarks in the industry ICIS coverage is unrivalled with pricing data and information for over 180 commodities across all key regions Make fast and confident decisions and determine the best time to buy or sell with access to l Spot and contract price assessments including personalised alerts to notify you of changes l In-depth analysis and price history to help you track and understand price drivers and trends l Easy access to information with multiple delivery options

Analytics SolutionsICIS offers a unique combination of analytics tools designed to help you navigate and optimise opportunities in an ever-changing market making complex analytics simple for you Our solutions help you react quicker to market developments in a demand-led price-sensitive global marketplace enabling you to l Spot opportunities and minimise risk l Shape future strategy l Maintain a competitive advantage l Supplement your in-house analytics

Specialist ServicesThe global team of ICIS experts brings extensive knowledge of industry sectors through

Expand your knowledge to navigate complex markets more confidently

Get the latest insights into current issues and trends from a hand-picked selection of experts

Get tailored advice and guidance to address your companyrsquos key challenges

Industry NewsOur extensive global network of local experts report breaking news stories that impact chemical markets influence commodity prices and affect your daily business decisions Alerts and our one-stop platform keep you fully informed and support your planning with access to l Real-time news round-the-clock l Analysis and likely market impact l Production news and force majeures

Supply amp Demand DatabaseReceive an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical supply chain for over 100 petrochemical commodities Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacity production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040 ndash providing you with a long-term view of the rapidly changing petrochemical market The database enables you to l Determine the local or regional scenario in a global context to support your planning l Identify evaluate and optimise opportunities l Validate commercial and growth strategies l Identify and manage financial or investment risks

FIND OUT MORE

FIND OUT MORE

FIND OUT MORE

FIND OUT MORE

Critical market data tools and expertise

SPECIALISED TRAINING INDUSTRY CONFERENCES BESPOKE CONSULTANCY

AROMATICSPARAXYLENE

ASIA PX FACES DOWNWARD PRESSURE AS SUPPLY LENGTHENS INTO H2By Samuel Wong

Asiarsquos paraxylene (PX) prices are likely to face downward pressure going into the second half of 2018 due to new capacities coming on stream with no additional downstream units to absorb the supply

A total of 205myear of new PX capacities will be added in the second half including PetroRabighrsquos 135m tonneyear unit in Saudi Arabia and Nghi Son Refinery and Petrochemicalrsquos 700000 tonneyear unit in Vietnam

Asiarsquos PX intermonth spread is currently at a backwardation of $3-4tonne down from $12-15tonne in the first quarter as market participants were gradually pricing in the additional supply PX supply

There are expectations that the market will flip into a contango once smooth operations are achieved at the new PX units

Among new PX capacities PetroRabighrsquos new PX unit is expected to achieve full operations from the third-quarter onward after suffering some technical hiccups in the second quarter

Nghi Son on the other hand is expected to start exporting cargoes from its new PX unit from the second-half of July according to market participants

Asia will be in oversupply of PX as the total capacity increase would require 31m tonnesyear of downstream purified terephthalic acid (PTA) capacities but no firm PTA start-ups are on tap in the next six months

Moreover Chinarsquos Fuhaichuang Petrochemical formerly Dragon Aromatics (Zhangzhou) is planning to resume operations at its idled complex in the third quarter this year after more than three years of shutdown

Its Zhangzhou complex consists of a 16m tonneyear PX plant and a 45m tonneyear downstream PTA plant which constitutes three 15m tonneyear lines two of which have resumed operations since late 2017

According to market participants the company is likely to restart the third PTA line once smooth operations at its PX unit is achieved

In India JBF Grouprsquos 125m tonneyear PTA unit is supposed to begin production in the third quarter of 2018 but the schedule is still fluid according to market players

The company has recently entered into a deal with existing investor KRR for the private equity firm to acquire a majority stake in certain company assets as the company enters into discussions to restructure its debt on 18 May

In Europe Indorama Ventures plans to start up an idled Portugal-based 700000 tonneyear PTA unit which it recently acquired in July The plant formerly known as Artlant PTA originally came on stream in 2012 but closed in 2014 for financial reasons and bar a brief period in operation was subsequently idled

Back to Quick Navigation | 09Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Thailandrsquos Indorama Ventures acquired Atlant PTA in the fourth quarter of 2017

Asian PX prices are currently above those of main feedstock naphtha by more than the breakeven level of $250tonne while PX production via feedstock isomer-xylene through the parex process and feedstock toluene through the toluene disproportionation (TDP) route have also remained economically viable

All these will mean that PX producers will maintain high operating rates at their existing plants

Spot sales have been increasing amid strong production across the region A southeast Asia-based producer is currently offering around 15000-20000 tonnesmonth of cargoes double to triple the monthly volumes it offered in the previous year

The price gap between PX and naphtha has narrowed to $315tonne in the second quarter falling from the peak of around $425tonne in end-February as the market started pricing in the expected increase in supply

In the first half of the year Asiarsquos PX production losses were estimated at 167m tonnes due to a heavy turnaround schedule

Negotiations for PX Asian Contract Price (ACP) failed for three consecutive months from April after successful monthly settlements in the first quarter ndash when producers and end-users were in agreement that supply was restricted by the turnarounds amid healthy demand in Asia

Back to Quick Navigation | 10Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian paraxylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 11Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Arbitrage economics for deep-sea materials into Asia has largely remained shut since the start of the year mainly due to a tightly supplied market in the US

However Asia does not need the supply from the US ndash which ships out 10000-15000 tonnes of supply to this region on a monthly basis ndash once the new PX units achieved smooth operations according to market participants

Toward the fourth quarter a tightening of supply may provide support to PX prices with several plants in the key China market due for turnaround

PX prices are also expected to track movement in the upstream crude and naphtha prices as well as downstream PTA futures values

AROMATICSSTYRENE MONOMER

ASIA SM UP ON LIMITED SUPPLY TIGHTNESS TO EASE IN H2By Deborah Lee

Asiarsquos styrene monomer (SM) market ndash supported in the first half of 2018 by tight supply ndash is expected to see more arbitrage cargoes from the US and Europe besides completion of turnarounds which may put pressure on prices for the rest of the year

Already April and May cargoes have been loaded from the US and have either found buyers or are likely to do so in South Korea

Furthermore Chinarsquos turnarounds will largely be over by end June with demand for imports expected to fall as domestic production returns to normal

A final anti-dumping duty (ADD) decision by China over SM imports from South Korea Taiwan and the US is also being closely watched by market participants

The China ministry of commerce is expected to announce its final results of its ADD probe in June

Prices are expected to come off in the second half of the year as a result of easing of supply and already there is a steep backwardation in the market with the JuneJuly spread at $65-85tonne

The CFR China marker started off at $1335tonne the start of the year and peaked at $156250tonne early June The SM assessment has since softened but remained above the $1400tonne level

They were largely supported in the first half because of limited arbitrage arrivals amid unplanned plant issues and scheduled turnarounds in Europe and the US while the CFR (cost amp freight) China market was hit by the ADD imposed on South Korean Taiwanese and US origin cargoes

Besides planned plant maintenance in the US and Europe unexpected issues at several plants disrupted production further

In France Totalrsquos 600000 tonneyear SM plant in Gonfreville was affected by an outage at the producerrsquos cracker in the same location early February

But the biggest impact was from CosMarrsquos unplanned shutdown caused by equipment failure due to the polymerization at its purification units

Production at its 118m tonneyear plant in Carville Louisiana resumed April 10 nearly three months after it was shut mid-January

The tight supply situation almost guaranteed that there would be no arbitrage cargoes from the US and Europe heading into Asia

Back to Quick Navigation | 12Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

But this was further secured by ADDs imposed on some of Chinarsquos key suppliers of SM as part of the Chinese authoritiesrsquo preliminary decision in February

This had greatly reduced options for the largest importer of SM cargoes in Asia

China which imported over 3m tonnes of SM in 2017 has had to turn to the Middle East southeast Asia and Japan to supplement cargoes it had received before from countries affected by ADD

Other macroeconomic factors boosted the CFR China assessment -- a stronger yuan rendered US dollar imports more competitive versus domestic cargoes for one

China also lowered VAT rates from 17 to 16 effective May 1 further bolstering interest in imported cargoes

Prices fell in end-February as some sellers offloaded cargoes due to an influx of arrivals

Concerns over end user demand emerged as the second quarter was expected to be a good demand season for SM and its derivatives but in reality buyers were slow to emerge deterred by high prices

In China in particular demand was slow to pick up after the Lunar New Year holiday because downstream producers were well stocked as operating rates were maintained during the typically low demand season in winter

This was in anticipation of rising SM prices due to the ADD probe

The additional spot cargoes in the market combined with lackluster demand pressured spot prices lower The CFR China assessment on 21 March fell to $1270tonne

As news of more turnarounds planned within China emerged domestic supply of SM was looking increasingly tight

With many plants due to be shut over April to June production was persistently lowered over the quarter and expectations of tight supply pushed the market higher again

Spot prices remained on an upswing as inventory levels slumped and prompt supply was limited

Stockpiles of SM in east China fell to a multi-year low as of 30 May at 37500 tonnes

Back to Quick Navigation | 13Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian styrene monomer (SM) markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 14Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Cargoes hitting Chinarsquos shores were not sufficient to meet the countryrsquos growing appetite for SM particularly as the Q3 manufacturing for exports season was fast approaching

Downstream producers however were struggling to pass on rising feedstock costs to their buyers

Thinning margins have led to some mulling lowering operating rates at its resin plants

Petrochemicals Analytics SolutionsOur new and enhanced petrochemical analytics and insight puts you in a stronger position so you can optimise your trades plans and strategies in order to secure a competitive advantage

ICIS is the only information provider to offer this unique combination of analytics tools as one subscription alongside pricing data and analysis

Live Supply Disruption TrackerPlant outages and maintenance for the next 12 months plus the impact of capacity changes

3 Pre-empt competition and capitalise on trades impacted by outages

3 Be aware of market shortages with a real-time view to manage risk and ensure security of stock

3 Negotiate better prices with other market players

Supply amp Demand OutlooksQuarterly global supply and demand review and outlook for key value chains and regions

3 Support your short-term strategy with upstream and downstream market sentiment and expectations for the current quarter at a regional level

3 Expand opportunities in international trade3 Understand at-a-glance the regional supply and

demand outlook across six key commodity chains

Price Drivers AnalyticsCross-commodity and cross-regional analysis of importexport parity substitution trends and feedstockdownstream spreads

3 Gain new context and negotiating tools in addition to ICIS price assessments

3 Pre-empt competition and spot opportunities with visual charts and impact commentaries

3 Reduce the time spent making manual calculations and spend more time on strategy and acting on market opportunities

4

360 view of the market l See the global market from

all anglesl Achieve better price

flexibilityl Enrich strategy plans with

validated quality datasets

Real-time information l Powered by 43000 plant

data in the ICIS Supply andDemand Database and 247global market coverage byICIS editors

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AROMATICSTOLUENE

CHINA IMPORTS TO UNDERPIN ASIA TOLUENE MARKET IN H2 2018By Trixie Yap

Asiarsquos toluene market direction in the second half of this year will be determined by the buying activity from Chinese importers which has been the key factor influencing its prices so far in 2018

FOB (free on board) Korea prices which have been fluctuating in a wider-than-expected range for the past month closed at $760-785tonne in the week ended 1 June for June and July-loading parcels

The decreases at the close on 1 June marked the end of three weeksrsquo worth of stable-to-firm price trend

This followed weaker import demand from China for July which mainly stemmed from the ending of traders replenishing shore tank inventories at eastern ports such as Jiangsu

CFR (cost amp freight) China prices were in a sideways trend for most parts of early 2018 up to March at $690-765tonne

Prices only picked up after April and hit a peak of $835tonne CFR China after fluctuating in the $700-710tonne CFR China range for a few weeks

Unlike earlier expectations when market players were hoping for Chinese import demand to peak after the post early-March Lunar New Year period CFR China buying activity remained muted and only rose after May because of improved demand from the gasoline blenders

Blending demand received a boost because of lower gasoline production from state-owned refineries amid a spate of turnarounds in China ndash mainly in the eastern regions ndash starting end April to June

The better blending economics for toluene in early May particularly for the oil majors paved the way for demand as well

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Toluene-isomer xylenes spread on an ex-tank basis was wider with toluene being much more price friendly for gasoline production as compared to isomer xylene

With the 1 May implementation of a new online tax-filing system for oil and chemical products oil majors had no choice but to buy blend stocks themselves

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instead of gasoline cargoes directly as the government was effectively making private gasoline blending activities unworkable as these blenders will not be able to potentially avoid tax payments via the paper filing system now

The presence of higher-than-expected inventories at east China main ports ndash stock levels hit a high of 76700 tonnes in early March ndash contributed further to the later timing of import demand Inventories only fell significantly after April (see chart above)

The only key issue hampering import demand from improving further was the

generally weak off taking activities from the downstream chemical sectors as isocynates benzoic acid benzyl chloride and other types of solvent products

The downstream demand was hampered because of low and unchanged operating rates because of stricter environmental regulations imposed by the government since second-half 2017

Looking ahead however the bleak demand situation for toluene from the chemical downstream sector could reverse soon starting August-September because of Wan Hua Chemicalrsquos new TDI plant start-up

The TDI plantsrsquo nameplate capacity is currently 300000 tonnesyear which could equate to around 160000 tonnesyear of toluene usage according to several market players

While this may not directly represent an increase in demand for CFR China import toluene cargoes it is likely to boost domestic toluene demand within north China particularly Shandong region and allow for potential arbitrage flows within the country

This in turn may support import parity of yuan-denominated ex-tank prices and allow for healthy distributor margins ndash if they consider to buy CFR China cargoes which is a key driver for majority of these import buyers

Market participants in China were quick to note also that supply increments ndash following at least three new plant start-ups this year ndash will outpace demand increments whichcould pose a problem in determining whichwill have a larger impact on import demandand prices

ldquoThe additional capacities may not be sold into the merchant market because there will still be captive usage since these producers are refineries with gasoline requirements and fulfilmentsrdquo one east China-based trader said

Ultimately it will be dependent on how the internal consumption for gasoline ndash of these new start-ups ndash will pan out leading up to the year-end

Changes in average operating rates of state-owned refineries due to turnarounds or outages will be another direction driver

Aside from China demand-supply fundamentals the other key price driver is the supply balance within Asia

Supply has been generally long between January and May owing to the stable operating plant rates and overall sufficient availability in southeast Asia a key net exporter within the region

Availability of northeast Asian cargoes was curtailed at some points in time ndash particularly in February and March ndashbecause of turnarounds

Back to Quick Navigation | 17Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 18Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

However supply has been steadily rising for cargoes loading in May and June ndash with the market seeing an additional of close to 30000 tonnes of product from South Korea alone ndash as some downstream plants had ongoing shutdown plans all the way till early July (see right)

All of these cargoes as expected are heading to China because of the opened arbitrage window for exports during the same time period

The increment in excess spot supply from South Korea ndash going forward ndash will be driven by downstream spreads for TDP operators since the benzene-toluene spreads have been narrowing consistently from March when the spreads hit a peak

The healthy spreads between toluene and xylenes (para and isomer) have been the only saving grace for the TDP market

ldquoBenzene demand-supply fundamentals are likely to continue remaining weak with increments in supply still expected from Middle East and Vietnam from June so that is going to still put pressure on TDP operators whether to run their unit with more toluene or less toluene [since they can adjust the amount of feedstock]rdquo one northeast Asian end-user said

ldquoBenzene demand-supply fundamentals are likely to continue remaining weak with increments in supply still expected from Middle East and Vietnam from June so that is going to still put pressure on TDP operators whether to run their unit with more toluene or less toluene [since they can adjust the amount of feedstock]rdquo one northeast Asian end-user said

There is also hope that supply will be curbed again in the autumn season ndash when several plants start their planned maintenances ndash to provide a temporary relief to the readily sufficient spot availability

Ultimately if Chinarsquos importing activity continues to be robust there will be no issues with them soaking up the excess supplies at any point of time

ldquoThe key issue is how much these buyers can procure and how long their buying activities can last but so far it has been very sporadic and capped to short time frames because of them being risk averserdquo one southeast Asian trader said

Back to Quick Navigation | 19Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

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bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian toluene markets

BASE OILSBASE OILS

ASIA MIDEAST BASE OILS FIRM IN H1 BUT SOME PULLBACK LIKELY IN H2By Jasmine Khoo amp Izham Ahmad

Asia base oils Group I SN150 and Group II 150N prices are expected to remain firm on persistently low supply whereas the heavy grades - Group I SN500 and Group II 500600N - could come under pressure on ample availability

Into the second half of the year base oils supply from Iran are expected to be stable with no known maintenance plans due over the following few months from June and that could add further pressure on prices amid the weak demand outlook

Only one Iranian refiner is due for a maintenance shutdown in the second half of the year possibly sometime in September according to market sources

In Group II like in Asia short supply of 150N and 500600N is expected to support prices in coming months but the Group II segment in the Middle East is a much smaller market for producers

Major Group II and III producers in Saudi Arabia Qatar Bahrain and UAE also continue to focus on their traditional markets outside of the Middle East due to stronger demand and higher margins

Brightstock remained largely stable for June in terms of pricing following deals done at parity with Mayrsquos levels but market players maintained a cautious stance towards brightstock pricing which would typically see downward pressure towards the end of the year

The winter season in parts of Asia would typically herald a period of slow cargo uptake for brightstock as transportation logistics get more challenging

As for Group III base oils northeast Asian-origin lots are expected to see support in spot prices from June as seen from healthy uptake among buyers amid short supply from regional suppliers

Similarly in the Middle East market Group I prices started the year on a firm note

Around mid-February SN500 prices traded up to $80750tonne FOB (free on board) Iran their highest levels since ICIS began tracking the data in November 2015

SN150 also traded their record highs about the same time hitting $72750tonne FOB Iran

These record highs were held until early May despite buyers at the time showing increasing resistance to the higher levels and the uncertainty that took hold of the market ahead of a deadline for the US to decide on whether it would remain in the Iran nuclear deal

On 8 May US president Donald Trump announced that the US will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal and re-impose sanctions on Tehran consequently driving up crude prices to new highs since late 2014

Iranrsquos base oils prices were largely stable in that week but market outlook has been clouded with uncertainties following the USrsquo decision to re-impose sanctions on the country

Group I SN500 prices were stable through the early half of May at $780-805tonne FOB Iran while Group I SN150 were holding at $710-745tonne FOB Iran since early-February according to ICIS data

Prices began to decline around mid-May when it became more apparent that the increased sanctions would cause at least some disruptions to business dealings with Iranian entities

Market players said they encountered difficulties in financial transactions with Iran and many financial institutions were reluctant to take on any dealings involving Iran-based businesses for fear of conflicting with the US sanctions

On the supply side market players in the UAE said there were sufficient cargoes built up over recent months and as such

there was less demand for further spot deals in Group I particularly with the threat of renewed sanctions

Mid-May also marked the start of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan which is a typically slow season for the Middle East

Certain manufacturing activities are reduced as factories observed shorter operating hours and as many workers took some vacation time as well

The Eid ul-Fitr long holidays followed the end of Ramadan in mid-June

Asiarsquos base oils market trends for certain widely-traded Group I grades snapped out of persistent uptrend in late April against a backdrop of increasingly squeezed buyersrsquo margins and waning demand

Steady gains in FOB Asia spot prices were recorded since September 2017 on the back of regional shortages as demand surpassed output

This was partly fuelled by natural disasters in the US when Hurricane Harvey disrupted between 20 and 25 of the countryrsquos refining capacity in August

The disruption to base oils production at some units led to increased appetite for deep-sea shipments from Asia to the US

In the current market SN500 prices registered the greatest drops among the ICIS assessed grades shedding slightly more than 12 of its spot pricing between 13 April and 25 May ICIS data showed

Market participants attributed the price dip to lackluster demand brought about by a supply overhang of domestically-produced SN400 in the local Chinese market

Competitive pricing of SN400 amid ample availability curtailed import appetite among China-based buyers for SN500 of Asian origin especially since some buyers were still holding on to sufficient stocks for the near term

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Brightstock prices also softened reflecting increasingly squeezed buyersrsquo margins following steep gains seen from 22 September 2017 to 23 March 2018 in FOB Asia export prices

Some buyers were also sitting on sufficient inventories from active procurement earlier in the year leading to waned demand

This led refiners and traders to cut offers to encourage cargo uptake for May shipment cargoes

Group II 150N and 500600N prices largely held up on the back of potential supply woes in the summer season amid scheduled shutdowns at major Asian refineries

Taiwanrsquos Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) is expected to conduct planned maintenance in July market sources said

This led market players to hold on to expectations of buoyed spot prices for Group II base oils in the near term though significant increase is not expected for certain grades such as 500600N amid ample spot availability in the region

Group III 4 and 6cst base oils largely continued their steady price uptrend reflecting short supply among key South Korean Group III suppliers

8cst base oils of northeast Asian origin amid comparatively greater availability than its lighter counterparts saw less gains in prices since the beginning of 2018

South Korean-origin Group III base oils prices were mostly buoyant despite an influx of Middle East-origin Group III base oils into the northeast Asian market since November 2017 as South Korean-origin Group III users adhered largely to using the same material due to formulation restrictions and related OEM approvals

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PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian base oils markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 21Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPURIFIED TEREPHTHALIC ACID (PTA)

ASIA PTA SUPPLY TO LENGTHEN IN H2 ON INDIA CHINA PLANT START-UPSBy Samuel Wong

Supply of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in Asia is expected to lengthen in the second half of 2018 as new capacities will start up in the major markets of India and China amid a slowdown in demand

Major plants would have resumed production after unplanned outages to ease the current global supply tightness that has been driving up Asian prices while demand typically weakens in the third quarter

Asian PTA prices may start to come under pressure as fresh supply will hit the markets when new major regional plants start production in the third quarter

ldquoMarket sentiment is currently pessimistic about the outlook however this can quickly change if we see a sudden uptick in downstream demandrdquo a China-based producer said

In India JBF Grouprsquos 125m tonneyear PTA unit in Mangalore is expected to start up in the third quarter although the schedule is still fluid according to several market participants

In China Fuhaichuang Petrochemical formerly known as Dragon Aromatics (Zhangzhou) is planning to resume operations at its complex in the third quarter of 2018 after a prolonged shutdown

Its petrochemical complex in Zhangzhou has a 45m tonneyear PTA plant comprisings three 15m tonneyear lines two of which have been in operation since end-2017 The company is likely to restart the third line once smooth operations at its upstream paraxylene (PX) unit at the site is achieved market players said

In Europe Indorama Ventures Portugal plans to start up in July an idled 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Sines Thailand-based Indorama Ventures Ltd acquired the

plant from Portuguese Artlant PTA in late 2017

All these factors should see the narrowing of the price gap between Chinarsquos import and domestic markets as early as July after widening steadily from March to May

As of 12 June the gap stood at $96tonne down from the peak of about $111tonne on 30 May

Asiarsquos PTA prices are currently steady at firm levels Regional end-users preferred to procure cargoes on a need-to basis and were not keen on building inventories

Future movement will depend on market conditions in the downstream polyester industry

The wide price gap in Chinarsquos import and domestic markets has been deterring Chinese buyers from tapping the international spot market for supplies since March while demand was healthy especially in the downstream polyethylene terephthalate (PET) markets

Tight global supply in the first half saw Asian producers shipping out cargoes to the Middle East as well as Europe which was hit by unplanned outages in Belgium and Poland in April

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In Europe BP Chemical on 15 April declared a force majeure at its Belgium PTA unit and a second force majeure on 17 May PKN Orlen on 23 April declared a force majeure at its Wloclawek PTA unit in Poland which was subsequently lifted on 2 May with spot cargoes from the plant limited until after a planned maintenance in SeptemberOctober 2018

Within Asia the southeastern region has had PTA plant outages and had to procure cargoes from the northeast in the preceding two months

Regional supply tightened further with the unexpected shutdown of Hanwha General Chemicalrsquos 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Daesan prompting a force majeure declaration on 21 May

In the first half of 2018 strong growth in demand in the downstream polyester markets in Asia particularly China supported the rally in PTA prices amid tight supply

Downstream polyester markets were enjoying positive margins keeping demand for feedstock PTA healthy

In the key China market operating rates at polyester units were higher compared with the previous year

The countryrsquos PTA production losses in January-June 2018 on the other hand were estimated at around 134m tonnes due to planned and unplanned outages

Asiarsquos PTA producers were largely enjoying healthy margins on the back of steady demand growth in the downstream polyester markets Firmer upstream energy

and feedstock PX prices have also buoyed PTA prices

In January to May 2018 Brent crude traded at $6692-7616bbl up by about 25 year

on year while PX prices were at $938-994tonne representing a 15 increase over the same period

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian purified terephthalic acid (PTA)) markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 23Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPOLYETHYLENE TEREPHTHALATE (PET)

ASIA PET TO REMAIN FIRM IN Q3 AS TIGHT SUPPLY SUPPORT PRICESBy Hazel Goh

Asian polyethylene terephthalate (PET) market is likely to remain firm in the third quarter on the back of tight supply a trend that has supported prices so far in 2018

Recently PET tight supply is a result of production cuts in Asia and Europe that have not had a clear estimated date of resuming normal operations

China Resources Packaging had cut production at its PET lines in Changzhou by 50 following notice from the government to reduce pollution in end-May It is not known for how long the production cuts will remain in place

In Europe there had been feedstock purified terephthalic acid (PTA) supply tightness leading to recent PET production cuts and force majeure by Novapet and JBF respectively

Many buyers had been purchasing on a need-to basis expecting that firm prices are unsustainable and will come down Subsequently they did not stock up cargoes ahead of the peak summer demand season for countries in the northern hemisphere

The reality turned out different and they had to accept higher prices as production cuts kept the supply tight

PET used to track feedstock price movements closely as it had been an oversupplied market and producers typically operate on thin margins

The oversupply situation changed and tightness was first felt in the third quarter of 2017 when plant closures by JBF RAK in the UAE and Belgium and by Mossi amp Ghisolfi (MampG) in the US Mexico and Brazil following financial tightness in the two PET-producing companies

Hurricane Harvey that hit the US in the third quarter led to further production cuts in the US

Back to Quick Navigation | 24Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 1

From then on supply remained tight as the plant under JBF RAK in the UAE and the former MampG plant in the US that had been acquired by Far Eastern remained shut for extended period of time even into 2018

Market players previously had concerns about where China will export its material when final anti-dumping duties (ADD) - heard to be at the same level as thepreliminary duties of 398-530 - wereimposed on its cargoes into Japan inJanuary

Japan was the top exporting destination for Chinese cargoes before the ADD following which the exports dropped drastically

While other producers such as Taiwanese southeast Asian Indian and South Korean producers sold more volumes into Japan Chinese makers sold to other markets that were relinquished by the other producers

Table 1 shows a significant difference between 2016 and 2017 in Chinarsquos export volumes to key destinations from the January-to-March period

Ranked by volume starting with largestvolume as 1

There is an ongoing anti-dumping duty (ADD) investigation by the US on PET cargoes from Brazil Pakistan Indonesia Taiwan and South Korea

The Commerce Department issued the preliminary dumping rates for Indonesia at 1316 South Korea at 881-10141 and Taiwan at 902-1189 in May Final determinations will be issued by 8 November

Even so some producers from the countries under investigation continued to receive buying enquiries from the US amid the current tight supply situation

There will be some upcoming new capacities expected in Q3 as shown in table 2 that may bring about a more balanced supply to meet the demand

The US plant acquired by Far Eastern is estimated to restart in June-July which should also ease the supply tightness

Even with the new capacities and plant restarts market participants think it is unlikely that PET market will return to the oversupply situation seen in the previous years

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian PET markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 25Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 2

Our English-language report coverage includes

Styrene MEG Propylene

BTX Methanol Base Oil

BPA PE MTBE

Phenol PP Mixed AromaticsAcetone Oxo-Alcohol

Trusted industryintelligence for Chinarsquoscommodity marketsDevelopments in Chinarsquos petrochemicals industrycontinue to affect the global marketplace It istherefore vital for domestic and internationalmarket players to keep track of changes withinthe country to know where opportunities lie

ICIS has long been recognised as a reliablesource of information our locally-based expertscompile reports and analyses in English tosupport industry participants dealing with Chinamarkets or seeking to trade or invest

Pricing informationOur pricing data provide key insights into pricetrends in China to support your short-termdecision-making negotiations and analyses

bull Import and export spot and contract pricesbull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity

and upstreamdownstream marketsbull Data on inventory levels and price marginsbull Plant and production news

Petrochemicals Analytics SolutionsProviding our customers with a 360-degree view of the Chinese market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker - real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for thenext 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics - key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock anddo wnstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlooks

Available for key chemical commodities

wwwiciscomchina

Discover how we can meet your market information needs

enquiryiciscom

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESMONOETHYLENE GLYCOL (MEG)

ASIA MEG TO SEE DEMAND TAPERING LOWER SUPPLY IN EARLY H2By Eric Su

The Asian monoethylene glycol (MEG) market could see demand slowing down from the end of June while supply will be reduced from a number of plant turnarounds

Inventories are expected to decline in June after offtake rates at Chinese main ports rose sharply in the last two weeks of May because of an uptick in demand from downstream polyester buyers

Demand for MEG is also expected to remain strong in the first half of June boosted by high polyester production rates of above 85 and modestly low inventory levels

A slowdown in demand may take place in the second half of June as the traditional manufacturing peak period nears its end in July

Meanwhile supply conditions could tighten because of the plant turnarounds in northeast Asia

However supply from the Middle East will likely resume to normal levels given that there were no further delay in shipments in May

MEG prices in Asia have registered year-on-year growth rates in the months to June this year

MEG prices have mostly hovered above $900tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China Main Port (CMP) while prices were mostly below $900tonne CFR CMP in 2017

Prices have been volatile in 2018 with major price swings seen on a near monthly basis since February

MEG prices in first quarter of 2018 continued the uptrend seen in the fourth quarter of 2017 rising to $1030tonne CFR CMP in early March from $922tonne CFR

CMP in late December as the higher-than-expected growth in downstream polyester fuelled bullish market sentiment

Polyester growth in 2017 was estimated at above 10 beating an originally bearish expectation of 2-3

A price downtrend was observed in March with the MEG weekly average price losing nearly 10 of its value to $929tonne CFR CMP by end-March

The price decline coincided with a sharp influx of imported cargoes which was likely a result of over-procurement in January

Back to Quick Navigation | 26Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

and February when prices were trending upwards

March 2018 import volumes rose to nearly 1m tonnes a record three-year high according to official China customs data

MEG prices rebounded in April rising by around 9 from end-March to $1014tonne CFR CMP by end-April ahead of the traditional peak period for the downstream polyester sector The average polyester production rate rose to above 85 during the period

MEG also achieved its to-date weekly peak of $1042tonne CFR CMP in the week ending 20 April

Supply tightness was also observed in the Chinese domestic market because of shipment delays from the Middle East and logistical issues at China main ports over the same period

The lack of availability of prompt cargoes also led to an atypical price spread between April and May delivery parcels

Normally the spread between arrived-at-port and far-term arrival cargoes is at $0-10tonne CFR CMP but this widened to $20-30tonne CFR CMP This drove concerns of sharp price adjustments in May once April deliveries were fulfilled

These concerns came true as MEG prices

began to slide in May MEG weekly prices stood at $928tonne CFR CMP in the last week of May falling from $1003tonne CFR CMP in early May

High inventory levels have also weighed on MEG prices Inventory levels were above 900000 tonnes from early May onward rising to 938000 tonnes by in late March Most market participants deemed inventory levels above 900000 tonnes to be high

The increase in inventory levels in May were largely attributed to the arrival of Middle East shipments which were previously due for arrival in April

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian MEG markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 27Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSETHYLENE

NE ASIA ETHYLENE H2 OUTLOOK HINGES ON NEW SUPPLY SM PLANTBy Yeow Pei Lin

Northeast (NE) Asiarsquos ethylene (C2) second-half 2018 outlook is uncertain as several crackers are scheduled for maintenance but such production losses could be offset by the start up of a new plant and cargoes from outside the region

More than 20 crackers in Asia are slated to undergo maintenance in 2018 with the estimated capacity losses totalling more than 185m tonnes Most of the turnarounds in the first half of the year were concentrated in Japan ndash a key exporter to China

However several more companies are to carry out turnarounds in June and the rest of the year

The impact on the regional balance will depend on the start-up progress of a new facility in South Korea and on whether the strong exports from southeast Asia and Europe in the first half of 2018 will continue

Shipments from Yeosu South Korea will start to slow down in August ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at complexes in that region

Exports will recover by December when Lotte Chemical brings on-stream an added capacity of 200000 tonnesyear at its Yeosu cracker

The facility will undergo an expansion during a turnaround from late September to October

Shipments from Ulsan another petrochemical cluster in South Korea will grow in the second half of 2018

Newcomer S-Oil is expected to begin commercial operations at its residue upgrading complex (RUC) in Onsan in the second half of June

The companyrsquos entire ethylene output of up

to around 200000 tonnesyear is intended for the merchant market as it does not have any downstream plants

Exports from southeast Asian producers will continue to be driven by the higher value from ethylene sales in the ethylene versus polyethylene (PE) trade-off

There will however be supply constraints

Four crackers in the region will undergo

maintenance and the affected producers include ExxonMobil and PTT Global Chemicals (PTTGC) that were regular exporters in the first half of 2018

Exports from Europe will likely be influenced by the performance of the PE sector

The outlook for the PE market in Europe is uncertain given the growing prospect of competitively-priced exports from the new US plants

Back to Quick Navigation | 28Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Ethylene costs in the US have been at low levels since early 2018 as production growth outpaces that for consumption

Since late 2017 about 3m tonnesyear of new ethylene capacity and about 35m tonnesyear of new PE capacity have started up in the US

The new crackers have been running well but several of the new PE plants struggled to reach full operating rates

Exports from Saudi Arabia are expected to be constrained by increased domestic consumption

Petro Rabigh announced in April that the last few plants in its Phase 2 project including a 75000 tonneyear ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) unit have started up

The companyrsquos ethylene exports could fall further in the second half of 2018 following the completion of its PE plant maintenance shutdowns earlier in the year

Chinarsquos import demand is poised for further growth when a new 260000 tonneyear styrene monomer (SM) plant starts up in the third quarter as planned

Anhui Haoyuan Chemical will be operating the unit in Fuyang Anhui on a standalone basis as its plans to build a methanol-to-olefin (MTO) plant have been put on hold amid high methanol prices

The plant will require around 78000 tonnes of ethylene annually to operate at maximum capacity

Based on the above factors it was not immediately clear if the ethylene prices in the second half will follow the volatile trend they displayed in the first five months of 2018

NE Asia spot ethylene prices were volatile from January to May as the impact of a heavy regional cracker turnaround schedule and strong Chinese demand was at times outweighed by strong exports from southeast Asia the Middle East and Europe

The market started the year at above a two and a half year high of $1415tonne CFR (cost amp freight) NE Asia in early January

Subsequent transacted prices fluctuated within a low $1200stonne to mid $1300stonne CFR NE Asia band in the five months ended 31 May

Prices in the first quarter were initially weighed down by ample supply from producers in the Middle East and Asia due to a series of PE plant shutdowns - both planned and unplanned

That was despite strong pre-Lunar New Year holiday restocking activities in China

Demand was bolstered by the start up of a 500000 tonneyear non-integrated SM plant and generally healthy downstream margins for producers outside the PE sector

End-users were also keen to build up their inventories because of the slow progress in their 2018 term contract discussions ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at facilities of key exporters in the region

In addition a major ethylene oxide (EO) maker was seeking more import cargoes following a disruption in supply from its upstream MTO unit The plant was shut twice between late November and the first half of February because of high feedstock methanol costs

The market recovered in early March in line with the start of the annual cracker turnaround season in northeast Asia where

scheduled capacity losses in 2018 will be overall higher than the previous year

That explained why the countryrsquos exports from January to April slumped by 14 year-on-year to 201274 tonnes

In late April northeast Asiarsquos spot prices fell again after a surprisingly large quantity of deep-sea spot cargoes were sold into Asia for delivery between the middle of May and the first half of June

There were at least 55000-60000 tonnes of cargoes from Europe in addition to 11000 tonnes of US supply for that delivery period Europe was in a long position because of derivative maintenance shutdowns and production problems

Continued strong exports from southeast Asia owing to downstream production issues and the weak performance of the linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) market contributed to the downbeat sentiment

The ample supply outweighed Chinarsquos robust import demand

Buying interest in China was strong for April and May arrival cargoes on the back

Back to Quick Navigation | 29Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

of healthy downstream margins for certain downstream markets such as SM EO and monoethylene glycol (MEG)

Ethylene buyers in China were also keen to book deep-sea cargoes to offset the expected regional production losses from cracker turnarounds

Prices rebounded quickly in mid-May

aided by a bullish SM market and reduced domestic supply

Some MTO operators lowered production in May as high feedstock methanol costs led to squeezed margins while a key producer in east China lowered its cracker run rates unexpectedly

Sharp increases in feedstock naphtha costs

which tracked gains on crude oil futures also helped set a floor to the earlier price declines

By early June spot ethylene prices had touched a 20-week high raising questions on whether the market will see similar price volatility in the second half of 2018

Producers will turn hawkish if the outlook for crude and naphtha markets remains upbeat

Back to Quick Navigation | 30Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSPROPYLENE

TIGHT NE ASIA PROPYLENE SUPPLY TO LIMIT H2 PRICE FLUCTUATIONSBy Joson Ng

Tight propylene (C3) supply in northeast Asia amid a heavy turnaround schedule in 2018 will continue supporting regional prices of the material into the second half

Sellers are likely to continue passing on firmer costs to buyers which are wary of October when heavy propylene production losses are expected

Buyersrsquo resistance in the key China market would keep any further increase in propylene prices in check with some downstream producers considering cutting output due to high feedstock costs

At the start of June propylene prices have weakened ending the strong general uptrend since end-March amid weakness in Chinarsquos domestic market as demand softened due to turnarounds at downstream polypropylene (PP) plants

However the downward pressure on regional prices may be temporary as overall supply in Asia is expected to be tight

In early June spot propylene prices in northeast Asia were about 9 higher from the start of 2018 according to ICIS data

The year started on a bullish note fuelled by a heavier cracker turnaround schedule compared with 2017 and higher premium levels concluded for contract cargoes

The uptrend was sustained into February due to restocking activities in various import markets in northeast Asia before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February

Before the holidays some South Korean producers were convinced the market will experience supply shortage as both GS Caltexrsquos fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity and Yeochun NCCrsquos (YNCC) cracker ndash which can produce 280000 tonnesyear of propylene ndash were due for maintenance in February through to April

But propylene prices surprisingly weakened from 9 February to end-March without demand support from Chinarsquos weak PP market which struggled through sluggish sales and high inventory after the countryrsquos week-long Lunar New Year holiday

A renewed wave of scheduled turnarounds at regional plants tightened supply and drove up propylene prices in April and May

In Taiwan Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) took its residue fluid catalytic

Back to Quick Navigation | 31Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

cracking (RFCC) unit with a 350000 tonneyear propylene capacity off stream from 1 March to mid-April while CPC Corp shut its 100000 tonneyear FCC unit on 10 April and restarted in early June

In South Korea GS Caltex also had a turnaround at its FCC unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity from 19 February to 5 April

SK Advanced shut its propane dehydrogenated (PDH) unit with 600000 tonneyear propylene capacity on 21 April to early May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian propylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 32Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

To talk to someone about price forecast reports call the numbers below or email us at salesukiciscomAsia-Pacific Europe Africa and Middle East The AmericasTel +65 6789 8828 Tel +44 20 8652 3335 Tel +1 713 525 2600 or Toll free +1 888 525 3255 (US and Canada only)

ICIS price forecast reportsSupply demand and price trends at a glance

ICIS price forecast reports provide a clear view of prices and supply and demand trends for the next 12 months Packed with vital information the report includes everything you need to assess where the market is heading and the impact or opportunity that presents for your business

To find out more or take a trial visit wwwiciscompriceforecast

Price Forecast Window

ICIS price forecasts are now available on the Dashboard channel using the Price Forecast Window which will enable users to

n Chart the price forecast against the last (rolling) twelve months of related price history

n Plot the last 12 months to view forecast progression and ICIS forecast accuracy

n Convert data into different currencies and units and download this data into Excel in order to easily enter into your own calculations

How price forecast reports can help youn Understand the marketUse ICIS price forecast reports to understand where the market is heading and identify the risks and the opportunities for your business What are the major demand developments for your product n Safeguard commercial decisionsUse market information to make better-informed business decisions relating to supply and demand Learn about changes in market capacities What factors will affect supply for you n Budgeting and planningWhether you are planning how much you will be spending in the short-to medium or even long term use the price forecast reports to help assess future prices for your product What will the price of your product be in six monthsrsquo time

Price forecast reports currently

available

Available as price forecast windows only

Polypropylene

Polyethylene

Benzene

StyrenePolystyrene

Methanol

Ethylene

Propylene

Styrene

Asia Europe US Global

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

OLEFINSBUTADIENE

ASIA BD TO FLUCTUATE IN H2 AS SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE SHIFTSBy Helen Yan

Asiarsquos butadiene (BD) spot prices for July shipments are likely to face downward pressure but any price downtrend is likely to reverse when cracker turnarounds start to kick in from September onwards

BD prices are expected to be weighed down before seeing support again in the third quarter as the supply and demand balance shifts during this period

The fourth quarter will likely see support for BD prices although the increases may be tempered by resistance from the downstream synthetic rubber (SR) makers to any significant price hikes

The busy cracker turnaround season in September-November will likely see supply tightening at the same time that demand is expected to pick up during this period

Several crackers and BD units including South Korearsquos Lotte Chemical LG Chem and Chinarsquos Shanghai Secco and Maoming Petrochemical are scheduled to shut during

the September to November time frame

In the near term BD spot prices are likely to continue to trend lower as demand wanes while supply at the same time is expected to lengthen due to an influx of deep-sea cargoes and regional cracker restarts

More than 15000 tonnes of deep-sea cargoes from EU are expected to arrive in Asia in June and July at the same time that crackers in Asia including Indiarsquos Haldia Petrochemical and Indonesiarsquos Chandra Asri resume their production following their maintenance shutdowns

On 8 June spot prices fell to $1725tonne CFR (cost amp freight) northeast (NE) Asia the second consecutive week of decline after spiralling upwards in the two months since early April

BD spot prices had increased by more than 40 since early April peaking at $1800tonne CFR NE Asia on 25 May

Strong demand from derivative acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) makers which were running their plants at optimal rates had bolstered the BD price upsurge during this period

However derivative styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) and polybutadiene rubber (PBR) producers the key consumers of BD cut their production output given the continued erosion in margins

Several major SBR and PBR producers said their margins had fallen into negative territory and retreated from the BD spot market in June

Chinese spot appetite in particular tapered off as domestic BD prices were lower compared with the US dollar-denominated import prices

In China Hangzhou Zhechen Jilin Petrochemical Zhejiang Transfar and Shen Hua Chemical were some of the SBR and PBR plants that are shut for maintenance in June and July

Several SBR and PBR plants in Taiwan and South Korea were also running at lower rates following the 40 BD price spike in the two months from early April to end-May

In South Korea major SR producer Korea Kumho Petrochemical PC was running its SBR and PBR plants at reduced rates

Back to Quick Navigation | 33Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian butadiene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 34Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Similarly Taiwanrsquos TSRC also cut the production output of its SBR and PBR plants

The outlook for the fourth quarter is expected to see a different turn of events with SBR and PBR plants resuming their production and ramping up their operating rates while supply during the last quarter is expected to tighten from the heavy cracker turnaround season

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYETHYLENE (PE)

SOUTHEAST ASIA PE MARKET FACES LONGER H2 SUPPLY WEAK DEMANDBy Felita Widjaja

Southeast Asiarsquos polyethylene (PE) market may be facing longer supply in the second half hinging on how the US-China trade spat plays out amid the regionrsquos weakening demand for imports

Global PE trade flows will be affected should China the biggest importer of spot PE cargoes in the world decide to impose retaliatory 25 tariff on US cargoes

Southeast Asia as an alternative buying region might be hard pressed to absorb additional supply from the US where massive PE capacities recently started up which were meant to cater to huge Chinese demand

Around 5m tonnes of additional US PE capacities are expected from several major projects including those in the pipeline to start up within the second half of 2018

China primarily imports PE cargoes from Asia and the Middle East while the US is its sixth leading PE supplier in 2017

ldquoEventually more substantial and regular volume of US [PE] cargoes are expected to be traded in Asia in the second half of the year as we have yet to see them in the first half of this yearrdquo said a regional trader

Any changes in trade flows would pose challenges to US suppliers in the short term as they would need to revamp their logistics and distribution channels to redirect cargoes to other markets

Suppliers from the Middle East meanwhile might take the opportunity to supply more cargoes to China and would mean fewer volumes available to the southeast Asian market

The Middle East is southeast Asiarsquos major PE supplier

Demand for PE imports in southeast Asia has been weak amid lower prices in

Back to Quick Navigation | 35Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

the domestic markets as in the case of Thailand

ldquoThai traders are not keen to import as local prices are more competitive so they do not have the margin to sell the imported cargoes in local market Only some converters who need specific cargoes continue to importrdquo said a local Thai trader

Malaysia and Indonesia with predominantly Muslim populations have seen market activity slow down since mid-May when the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan started Ramadan ends with the Eid ul-Fitr holiday on 15 June

The Indonesian government has declared a longer Eid-ul Fitr holiday this year from 11-20 June

Markets in Singapore and the Philippines will be closed for the mid-June holiday as well

With supply expected to become long some market players expect regional PE prices in July and August to ease from

June with restocking activities expected to kick in towards the end of the third quarter

In the first half of 2018 southeast Asiarsquos average prices for commodity PE were largely stable to firm owing to suppliersrsquo relatively comfortable-to-tight supply for most of the period

At the start of June high density polyethylene (HDPE) film grade prices averaged $1395tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia while linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) film were at $1210tonne CFR SE Asia and $1265tonne CFR SE Asia respectively according to ICIS data

Prices had spiked in the first quarter as suppliers were holding comfortable-to-tight inventory as several regional producers have scheduled turnarounds at their plants in March Production issues and shutdowns in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia also limited availability of imports to southeast Asia during this period

Supply for HDPE film was particularly tight as some producers from the Middle East as well as Asia switched their focus into making HDPE pipe grade amid robust demand and better netbacks

The price uptrend across most PE grades could not be sustained in the second quarter although prices remained relatively stable-to-firm

The depreciation of local currencies in southeast Asia against the US dollar in most of the second quarter was also curbing overall demand for imports A weaker currency makes US dollar-denominated imports expensive

ldquoIndonesian buyers have not been buying much cargoes as the market slowed down during Ramadan and also because of weak rupiah which led the central bank to increase interest rate to limit the depreciationrdquo said a regional producer

CHINA PE IMPORTS TO STAY STRONG AMID DOMESTIC PLANT TURNAROUNDS By Angie Li

Chinarsquos polyethylene (PE) imports are expected to remain strong for the rest of the year after posting record volumes in January to April 2018 amid scheduled turnarounds at domestic facilities

Buyers in China have been accumulating imported PE cargoes as these were priced lower compared futures prices since the start of the year

More cargoes will be available to China as new capacities in the US are expected to boost production

For the month of May the countryrsquos PE imports are projected to reach 12m tonnes higher than the monthly average in the first four months of 2018

In January to April 2018 its PE imports volumes totaled 447m tonnes up by 12 from the previous corresponding period according to industry sources

The import volumes were making up for the production losses in the domestic market due to scheduled turnarounds

On 1 June low density PE (LDPE) imports were assessed at $1155-1180tonne linear low density PE (LLDPE) stood at $1150-1170tonne while high density PE (HDPE) film products were at $1340-1400tonne according to ICIS data

The prices have increased 15-62 from end-March but the gains came in lower than market playersrsquo expectations considering the heavy production loss due to turnarounds from April

Back to Quick Navigation | 36Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

An estimated 500000 tonnes are expected to be shaved in the second quarter due to scheduled maintenance at domestic facilities according ICIS data

ldquoWe thought the hefty plant turnarounds in the second quarter should lead to a surge in PE prices but the LDPE and LLDPE prices were less than satisfactory although HDPE prices [were] highrdquo said an east China-based trader referring to both the import and domestic PE prices

Strong imports amid hedging activities bloated the total supply in China in January to April to 998m tonnes up by 8 from the previous corresponding period with supply of LDPE and LLDPE up by 14 and 8 respectively market sources said

Imports of HDPE inched up by 2 over the same period given the gradersquos comparatively higher prices compared with LLDPE and LDPE

Increased availability due to recent capacity expansions and start-ups in Asia the Middle East also fuels Chinarsquos appetite for import cargoes

In the first quarter of 2018 additional cargoes from Saudi Arabia were mostly from Sadara Chemical which started up its 750000 tonneyear swing plant and 350000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Al Jubail during late 2016 and early 2017 respectively

Cargoes of Iran origin augmented the total volume from the UAE as market players try to go around the financial sanctions on Tehran Kordestan Petrochemicalrsquos 300000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Iran came on stream in March 2017

UAErsquos Borouge has also ramped up pipe and HDPE film exports to China during the period according to a supplier in the Middle East

Meanwhile PE imports from Singapore surged 38 year on year while those from India more than doubled to 127000 tonnes according to China Customs data

The ban on waste plastics implemented in China in the year also bolstered imports of virgin PE Some waste plastics processed overseas and then re-entered the market as virgin products but these volumes were limited

Last year China has imported 194m tonnes of PE waste plastics while

volumes in 2018 will be negligible with the implemention of the ban

Chinarsquos PE production this year is expected to increase by around 7 to about 17m tonnes in 2018 with imports projected to grow by 102 to around 13m tonnes according to a source from state-owned petrochemical giant PetroChina

Domestic demand for PE on the other hand is forecast to grow by 8 this year mainly from the packaging and pipe markets

Chinarsquos ongoing campaign to switch to using gas for power generation instead of coal is expected to continue boosting demand for PE gas pipes this year

The packaging industry will also drive up PE consumption underpinned by growth in electronic commerce Chinarsquos express delivery volumes reached 137bn packages during January-April 2018 based on data from the recent China Express Industry Development Conference in May

Back to Quick Navigation | 37Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 38Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

By Jonathan Lopez

ICIS NewsThe leading news service for real-time ground breaking news and analysis on the global petrochemicals markets

The ICIS News services give you unrivalled access to the most in-depth stories impacting the petrochemicals markets influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions

Our team of global editors are reporting around the clock to bring you the latest news and analysis so that you get the full picture of market and pricing developments first providing you with invaluable foresight to take advantage of every opportunity and to stay ahead of your competitors

With ICIS News you will be the first to read

Breaking news on the chemical markets that will impact your business

News on market moves deals and announcements that will affect your organisation

Force majeures closures and developments that influence your commodity prices

Expert analysis on industry trends and hot topics ndash know whatrsquos happening and why

Searchable archive with over 14 million articles from the past 10 years

Chemical Business News Base (CBNB) is a premium resource available on ICIS News It provides you with an extensive external source of upstream and downstream petrochemical news in summarised snapshots so you can quickly and easily get the latest updates on whatrsquos important to you

CBNB offers readers

Fast and consistent coverage on news facts figures from the upstream and downstream petrochemicals industry

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User-friendly search functionality to find articles most relevant to you from around the globe

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ICIS Chemical Business digital magazine (ICB) Our global team of experts digests and summarises the key issues and their potential impact on the chemical markets offering a comprehensive overview of the key developments that matter most-along with informed opinion and in-depth analysis

ICB features include

In-depth insight into chemical price changes and their impact on the markets

Understand the detail behind the headline news stories

Find out about supply amp demand trends and the factors impacting them

Get the complete picture of the chemical markets ndash all in one e-magazine

Easy access via e-magazine and premium magazine website

Find out more wwwiciscomnews

ICIS News offers access to additional sources including the ICIS Chemical Business Magazine and Chemical Business News Base (CBNB)

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYPROPYLENE (PP)

SE ASIA PP PRICES MAY COME UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 AS SUPPLY LENGTHENSBy Leanne Tan

Southeast Asiarsquos polypropylene (PP) market may come under pressure in the second half of the year on account of lengthening regional supply and weak downstream demand

Spot prices have been on the rise for most of May buoyed by bullish sentiment in the Chinese market and firm upstream feedstock costs

Margins for PP makers have been lower on average compared with levels in the previous year

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refinery amp Petrochemicals is scheduled to start up its 400000 tonneyear PP production unit in the third quarter The project was initially scheduled to start up in the first quarter of 2018

While domestic demand will continue to outstrip local production the countryrsquos reliance on imports may be diminished when the new plant starts up

Converters in the country have been opting to keep inventories lean in the short term amid expectations that prices may eventually weaken when more domestic supply becomes available

ldquoBuyers donrsquot want to buy too much import cargoes now not just because prices are high but also because there will be more locally-produced materials very soonrdquo a Vietnamese trader said

In Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan is expected to start commercial production at its expanded PP facility in Pasir Gudang in June or July The plantrsquos capacity will be raised by 200000 tonnesyear from 400000 tonnesyear

Import availabilities from South Korea are expected to lengthen in the medium-to-long term with S-Oil expected to complete an olefin downstream complex (ODC) at its Onsan refinery in Ulsan which will include a

405000 tonneyear PP capacity

On the demand front weakness is likely to persist in the second half with converters and end-users likely to continue buying spot cargoes on a hand-to-mouth basis

Indonesiarsquos demand in particular has been below expectations since the start of 2018 and this is likely to continue in the second half of the year according to market players

Back to Quick Navigation | 39Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Some players said import demand for dutiable cargoes may increase in the second half of the year as this is typically when the government issues duty exemption facilities

The duty exemption facilities are issued on a yearly basis which enable converters to import some PP volumes without extra cost

In Malaysia the removal of the 6 goods and services tax (GST) so far has had no immediate impact on the PP market although there are some expectations the move could potentially boost demand in the consumer market further down the road

In Vietnam demand for PP flat yarn has entered a seasonal lull from May to early July and will not pick up until August when the summer harvest begins

PP is widely used in the manufacture of woven sacks (for rice sacks) flexible packaging carpets household appliances and automotive parts

Spot PP prices in southeast Asia have been an uptrend for most of the first half

The PP market begun the year on a bullish note with spot prices surging by almost 10 over the course of two months all-origins PP flat yarn prices peaked at $1295tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia on 2 March

Healthy demand in China helped to provide support to spot prices in southeast Asia in the first quarter with a tight global spot supply leading to further price escalations

Some suppliers pulled back from the southeast Asian spot market to capitalise on better netbacks in other countries including Japan and Pakistan leading to further curtailed spot availability in southeast Asia

The market rally started to lose steam in early March amid subdued demand and a build-up of domestic inventories in China after the Lunar New Year holidays

The bearish sentiment soon spilled over into southeast Asia with Chinese suppliers pushing some volumes into southeast Asia amid an open arbitrage window

Vietnam remains the market of choice for Chinese exporters and PP import prices in the country plummeted as the result of the lengthened spot availability

However the bearish run was short-lived and prices soon bottomed out in early April

Bullish momentum in the upstream crude and naphtha markets propelled spot prices of polymers higher

Despite lacklustre downstream demand price hikes in April and May were commonplace as producers sought higher asking prices in view of narrower margins

TIGHT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT CHINA PP MARKET DESPITE WEAK DEMANDBy Dora Xue

Tight supply would buoy up Chinarsquos polypropylene (PP) prices in the near term despite weak downstream demand

The market is expecting heavy production losses following recent unexpected outages at five domestic facilities from May and scheduled turnarounds at other plants

In the week ended on 1 June domestic prices for PP flat yarn in east China were assessed at Chinese yuan (CNY) 9075tonne after a steady increase from early April according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos import prices for the same material stood at $1245tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China largely tracking movement in the domestic market over the past two months according to ICIS data

The strong PP prices have also started to deter buyers from purchasing more spot cargoes

ldquoPP prices are too high We donrsquot want to store too much in our warehouserdquo a buyer said

Downstream demand typically goes on a lull in June and July but any downward pressure on prices will be negated by a further tightening of supply as major plants will be taken off line for maintenance

ldquoWhen the maintenance season finishes in late June [PP] prices may start to go downrdquo a trader said

Demand is considered weakest at Qingdao in the eastern Shandong province due to government-mandated production cuts and logistics restrictions ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (SCO Summit) on 9-10 June

As of 1 June the combined polyolefin inventories of Chinese petrochemical majors Sinopec and PetroChina have declined back to normal levels of 700000 tonnes from a high of 1m tonnes in early March market sources said

Import supply to China may not improve in the short term as suppliers still deem other

Back to Quick Navigation | 40Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

Back to Quick Navigation | 43Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 2: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

QUICK NAVIGATIONALCOHOLSbull Methanol

AROMATICSbull Benzenebull Xylenesbull Paraxylenebull Styrene Monomerbull Toluene

BASE OILSbull Base oils

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESbull PTAbull PETbull MEG

OLEFINSbull Ethylenebull Propylenebull Butadiene

PLASTICSPOLYMERSbull Polyethylenebull Polypropylene

RUBBERbull SBR

SOLVENTSbull Acetone amp Phenol

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

| 02Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

ASIA METHANOL FACES SUPPLY-SIDE PRESSURES INTO H2By Kite Chong

Supply-side pressures may continue to weigh on Asiarsquos spot methanol prices into the second half of 2018 following completion of plant turnarounds at major suppliers in the Middle East and with two new plants coming on stream in Iran

Chinarsquos methanol import prices - the benchmark for Asia - have eased in recent weeks but remained higher compared with levels in the past two years

The recent weakness was attributed to a demand slowdown due to shutdowns of major methanol-to-olefins (MTO) facilities with some Chinese end-users emerging as sellers of methanol in the domestic spot market

Downward price pressures may intensify in Asia as export volumes from the Middle East are expected to normalize by late June or early July

Iran which is a major exporter of methanol to China is expected to start up two news facilities with a combined capacity of almost 4m tonnesyear in the second half of 2018

ALCOHOLSMETHANOL

A 23m tonneyear plant operated by Kaveh Galss in Dayyer is due to come on stream in the third quarter while Marjan Petrochemicalrsquos 165myear plant is scheduled to begin production in the fourth quarter The bulk of these output will be for exports

In the US a 175m tonneyear methanol plant ndash the countryrsquos biggest ndash in Beaumont Texas is due to come on stream by the end of June The plant which is now

mechanically complete is a 5050 joint venture between OCI and Consolidated Energy Ltd

There is a possibility that spot cargoes from this plant may head to Asia since South America which is the USrsquo main export market for methanol could face an oversupply

Asiarsquos spot methanol prices were on a general uptrend in the second quarter after

Back to Quick Navigation | 03Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian methanol markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 04Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

weakening in the first three months of the year according to ICIS data

Demand was dented in February by the Lunar New Year holidays across most of northeast and southeast Asia with the Chinese markets closed for a full week

In mid-March the arbitrage window opened for one to two weeks allowing cargoes from China to flow into other parts of Asia including India where prices were higher due to tight supply

AROMATICSBENZENE

ASIA BENZENE DEMAND MAY IMPROVE SUPPLY TO STAY LONG INTO H2By Clive Ong

Asiarsquos benzene demand may improve in July-August with the expected restart of downstream plants from turnarounds with supply to be curtailed by scheduled shutdowns of two regional facilities

But the high inventories in the key China market as well as along the supply chain in Asia will require time to whittle down which will hinge on the strength of demand across Asia in the third quarter

Strong run rates at benzene units in Asia amid turnarounds at downstream styrene monomer (SM) phenol and methyl diphenyl di-isocyanate (MDI) plants caused the build-up in stocks across the region in the first half of this year

Inventories in the key China market piled up above 230000 tonnes in May this year from around 150000 tonnes in December 2017

ldquoMost downstream turnarounds will complete in May and June hence benzene consumption will likely increase from the third quarterrdquo a Singapore-based trader said

Availability of benzene will also be curtailed as SK Global and Ulsan Aromatics have scheduled maintenance at their plants in the second half of MayJune

New supplies could also hit Asia in the third quarter with the start-up Petro Rabighrsquos new 400000 tonneyear benzene facility in the second quarter although operations at this plant remains erratic

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refineryrsquos 250000 tonneyear plant is expected to have benzene cargoes available in July

ldquoDemand for benzene in Asia and the US in the third quarter will play an important role in reducing the supply in the regionrdquo said another trader in Singapore

Back to Quick Navigation | 05Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The spot east-west arbitrage window has not stayed open throughout the first half of 2018 hampering shipping of cargoes to the US South Korea and Japan are key exporters of benzene to the US

ldquoThe arbitrage window was largely open in April but became not viable in Mayrdquo said a South Korea-based producer

Benzene is a base chemical used to make other chemicals such as SM phenol and caprolactam

In the second quarter suppliers in the region were grappling with excess inventories and a lack of outlets for their cargoes

Most key buyers in China Taiwan and southeast Asia have sufficient supplies with little appetite for spot cargoes Lackluster demand caused the CFR (cost amp freight) China prices to fall below FOB (free on board) Korea prices according to ICIS data

Premium for spot parcels into Taiwan (CFR) also declined to the low single digits over FOB Korea in the first half of May as buyers had little spot interest

The situation was just as dismal in southeast Asia where FOB SE Asia prices traded at a discount of $35tonne to FOB Korea at one point in the second half of April

In India FOB India trades were at a discount of more than $50tonne to FOB Korea as demand waned

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian benzene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 06Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

AROMATICSXYLENES

ASIA MX LIKELY TO BE UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 2018 ON WEAK DEMANDBy Deborah Lee

Asian mixed xylenes are likely to face headwinds in H2 2018 on weaker demand from the gasoline blending sector as well as increasing length in downstream markets

Demand for xylenes as a gasoline blending component in China has softened due to lower crude oil prices

Brent futures have come off from a recent peak of over $80bbl to hover at around $75-7750bbl range in June breaking an uptrend seen earlier in the year

Prices of octane boosters typically rise when crude is on an upswing as gasoline margins are expected to increase

Adding to the bleak outlook for gasoline blending materials stockpiles of blending gasoline within China are plentiful sources said

The isomer-grade xylene (IX) cargoes are mainly used as a feedstock for downstream paraxylene (PX) but upcoming capacity will keep a lid on spot IX prices

The new PX production facilities are largely integrated and do not require additional procurement of IX

Already the spread between PX and IX has narrowed from $180-190tonne to $140-150tonne with $120-140tonne being the breakeven point for producers

Earlier in the first half of 2018 strong China demand and firm crude had pushed mixed xylene prices up

Fundamentally demand from China pushed prices higher as the countryrsquos imports of IX had been persistently higher since the end of 2017

Demand for IX as a gasoline blending component was one major factor for the increase in appetite for the material while

another was that an integrated plant in China was purchasing spot IX in the market as a feedstock for its PX plant due to issues with its own IX cargoes

Margins for PX had remained at healthy levels despite the strength in the IX market keeping buying interest in IX as a feedstock healthy

Concerns remained over Chinarsquos new tax policy aimed to reduce tax evasion for gasoline blenders which was originally planned to begin 1 March but the impact was tempered by the clear uptrend in crude futures as well as a strong Chinese yuan

Strength in the yuan helped boost demand for imports as US dollar cargoes were more competitive as a result

Buyers at the same time sought IX cargoes over solvent-grade xylene (SX) on concerns that Chinese authorities would implement an additional consumption tax on mixed aromatics which shares the same HS code as SX There has yet to be an official announcement on the additional consumption tax

Further exacerbating the situation was tight supply with a Japanese producer was scheduled to be shut from June to August for maintenance greatly reducing supply of IX in the region

But the spike in spot prices sparked concerns that demand was unsustainable at that point -- gasoline blending margins were unappealing and stockpiles of blended gasoline in China were high

In May the sharp increase in IX prices eroded PX margins as well adding to concerns that buying interest was not sufficient to keep the market discussions at such high levels

Prices slipped after peaking at $867tonne on 10 May

This was offset when Chinarsquos Maoming Petrochemical successfully started up and achieved on-spec cargoes at its phase II aromatics unit in Guangdong on 20 May The plant is able is produce 400000 tonnesyear of IX

With the new plant adding to domestic supply in China the prospect of import demand was looking dim

Back to Quick Navigation | 07Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Domestic prices of IX in east China were now cheaper than imported prices the CFR northeast Asia price now commanding a small premium to the import parity of local spot discussions

With gasoline blending margins down and ample cheaper substitutes available demand for SX has also taken a hit

But supply remained tight for SX in China with buying interest strong in recent weeks although buyers have lowered bids in line with the fall in the domestic market

Inventory levels have recovered from just 900 tonnes in the middle of May and continue to hover around 5000 tonnes In 2017 weekly SX stockpiles in east China averaged 17172 tonnes

The supply situation was unlikely to ease with production of SX in the region limited due to increasing reliance on lighter feeds such as LPG

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian mixed xylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 08Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Pricing IntelligenceAccess independent price assessments that meet IOSCOrsquos PRA Principles and are widely trusted and used as benchmarks in the industry ICIS coverage is unrivalled with pricing data and information for over 180 commodities across all key regions Make fast and confident decisions and determine the best time to buy or sell with access to l Spot and contract price assessments including personalised alerts to notify you of changes l In-depth analysis and price history to help you track and understand price drivers and trends l Easy access to information with multiple delivery options

Analytics SolutionsICIS offers a unique combination of analytics tools designed to help you navigate and optimise opportunities in an ever-changing market making complex analytics simple for you Our solutions help you react quicker to market developments in a demand-led price-sensitive global marketplace enabling you to l Spot opportunities and minimise risk l Shape future strategy l Maintain a competitive advantage l Supplement your in-house analytics

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Supply amp Demand DatabaseReceive an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical supply chain for over 100 petrochemical commodities Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacity production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040 ndash providing you with a long-term view of the rapidly changing petrochemical market The database enables you to l Determine the local or regional scenario in a global context to support your planning l Identify evaluate and optimise opportunities l Validate commercial and growth strategies l Identify and manage financial or investment risks

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SPECIALISED TRAINING INDUSTRY CONFERENCES BESPOKE CONSULTANCY

AROMATICSPARAXYLENE

ASIA PX FACES DOWNWARD PRESSURE AS SUPPLY LENGTHENS INTO H2By Samuel Wong

Asiarsquos paraxylene (PX) prices are likely to face downward pressure going into the second half of 2018 due to new capacities coming on stream with no additional downstream units to absorb the supply

A total of 205myear of new PX capacities will be added in the second half including PetroRabighrsquos 135m tonneyear unit in Saudi Arabia and Nghi Son Refinery and Petrochemicalrsquos 700000 tonneyear unit in Vietnam

Asiarsquos PX intermonth spread is currently at a backwardation of $3-4tonne down from $12-15tonne in the first quarter as market participants were gradually pricing in the additional supply PX supply

There are expectations that the market will flip into a contango once smooth operations are achieved at the new PX units

Among new PX capacities PetroRabighrsquos new PX unit is expected to achieve full operations from the third-quarter onward after suffering some technical hiccups in the second quarter

Nghi Son on the other hand is expected to start exporting cargoes from its new PX unit from the second-half of July according to market participants

Asia will be in oversupply of PX as the total capacity increase would require 31m tonnesyear of downstream purified terephthalic acid (PTA) capacities but no firm PTA start-ups are on tap in the next six months

Moreover Chinarsquos Fuhaichuang Petrochemical formerly Dragon Aromatics (Zhangzhou) is planning to resume operations at its idled complex in the third quarter this year after more than three years of shutdown

Its Zhangzhou complex consists of a 16m tonneyear PX plant and a 45m tonneyear downstream PTA plant which constitutes three 15m tonneyear lines two of which have resumed operations since late 2017

According to market participants the company is likely to restart the third PTA line once smooth operations at its PX unit is achieved

In India JBF Grouprsquos 125m tonneyear PTA unit is supposed to begin production in the third quarter of 2018 but the schedule is still fluid according to market players

The company has recently entered into a deal with existing investor KRR for the private equity firm to acquire a majority stake in certain company assets as the company enters into discussions to restructure its debt on 18 May

In Europe Indorama Ventures plans to start up an idled Portugal-based 700000 tonneyear PTA unit which it recently acquired in July The plant formerly known as Artlant PTA originally came on stream in 2012 but closed in 2014 for financial reasons and bar a brief period in operation was subsequently idled

Back to Quick Navigation | 09Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Thailandrsquos Indorama Ventures acquired Atlant PTA in the fourth quarter of 2017

Asian PX prices are currently above those of main feedstock naphtha by more than the breakeven level of $250tonne while PX production via feedstock isomer-xylene through the parex process and feedstock toluene through the toluene disproportionation (TDP) route have also remained economically viable

All these will mean that PX producers will maintain high operating rates at their existing plants

Spot sales have been increasing amid strong production across the region A southeast Asia-based producer is currently offering around 15000-20000 tonnesmonth of cargoes double to triple the monthly volumes it offered in the previous year

The price gap between PX and naphtha has narrowed to $315tonne in the second quarter falling from the peak of around $425tonne in end-February as the market started pricing in the expected increase in supply

In the first half of the year Asiarsquos PX production losses were estimated at 167m tonnes due to a heavy turnaround schedule

Negotiations for PX Asian Contract Price (ACP) failed for three consecutive months from April after successful monthly settlements in the first quarter ndash when producers and end-users were in agreement that supply was restricted by the turnarounds amid healthy demand in Asia

Back to Quick Navigation | 10Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian paraxylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 11Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Arbitrage economics for deep-sea materials into Asia has largely remained shut since the start of the year mainly due to a tightly supplied market in the US

However Asia does not need the supply from the US ndash which ships out 10000-15000 tonnes of supply to this region on a monthly basis ndash once the new PX units achieved smooth operations according to market participants

Toward the fourth quarter a tightening of supply may provide support to PX prices with several plants in the key China market due for turnaround

PX prices are also expected to track movement in the upstream crude and naphtha prices as well as downstream PTA futures values

AROMATICSSTYRENE MONOMER

ASIA SM UP ON LIMITED SUPPLY TIGHTNESS TO EASE IN H2By Deborah Lee

Asiarsquos styrene monomer (SM) market ndash supported in the first half of 2018 by tight supply ndash is expected to see more arbitrage cargoes from the US and Europe besides completion of turnarounds which may put pressure on prices for the rest of the year

Already April and May cargoes have been loaded from the US and have either found buyers or are likely to do so in South Korea

Furthermore Chinarsquos turnarounds will largely be over by end June with demand for imports expected to fall as domestic production returns to normal

A final anti-dumping duty (ADD) decision by China over SM imports from South Korea Taiwan and the US is also being closely watched by market participants

The China ministry of commerce is expected to announce its final results of its ADD probe in June

Prices are expected to come off in the second half of the year as a result of easing of supply and already there is a steep backwardation in the market with the JuneJuly spread at $65-85tonne

The CFR China marker started off at $1335tonne the start of the year and peaked at $156250tonne early June The SM assessment has since softened but remained above the $1400tonne level

They were largely supported in the first half because of limited arbitrage arrivals amid unplanned plant issues and scheduled turnarounds in Europe and the US while the CFR (cost amp freight) China market was hit by the ADD imposed on South Korean Taiwanese and US origin cargoes

Besides planned plant maintenance in the US and Europe unexpected issues at several plants disrupted production further

In France Totalrsquos 600000 tonneyear SM plant in Gonfreville was affected by an outage at the producerrsquos cracker in the same location early February

But the biggest impact was from CosMarrsquos unplanned shutdown caused by equipment failure due to the polymerization at its purification units

Production at its 118m tonneyear plant in Carville Louisiana resumed April 10 nearly three months after it was shut mid-January

The tight supply situation almost guaranteed that there would be no arbitrage cargoes from the US and Europe heading into Asia

Back to Quick Navigation | 12Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

But this was further secured by ADDs imposed on some of Chinarsquos key suppliers of SM as part of the Chinese authoritiesrsquo preliminary decision in February

This had greatly reduced options for the largest importer of SM cargoes in Asia

China which imported over 3m tonnes of SM in 2017 has had to turn to the Middle East southeast Asia and Japan to supplement cargoes it had received before from countries affected by ADD

Other macroeconomic factors boosted the CFR China assessment -- a stronger yuan rendered US dollar imports more competitive versus domestic cargoes for one

China also lowered VAT rates from 17 to 16 effective May 1 further bolstering interest in imported cargoes

Prices fell in end-February as some sellers offloaded cargoes due to an influx of arrivals

Concerns over end user demand emerged as the second quarter was expected to be a good demand season for SM and its derivatives but in reality buyers were slow to emerge deterred by high prices

In China in particular demand was slow to pick up after the Lunar New Year holiday because downstream producers were well stocked as operating rates were maintained during the typically low demand season in winter

This was in anticipation of rising SM prices due to the ADD probe

The additional spot cargoes in the market combined with lackluster demand pressured spot prices lower The CFR China assessment on 21 March fell to $1270tonne

As news of more turnarounds planned within China emerged domestic supply of SM was looking increasingly tight

With many plants due to be shut over April to June production was persistently lowered over the quarter and expectations of tight supply pushed the market higher again

Spot prices remained on an upswing as inventory levels slumped and prompt supply was limited

Stockpiles of SM in east China fell to a multi-year low as of 30 May at 37500 tonnes

Back to Quick Navigation | 13Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian styrene monomer (SM) markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 14Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Cargoes hitting Chinarsquos shores were not sufficient to meet the countryrsquos growing appetite for SM particularly as the Q3 manufacturing for exports season was fast approaching

Downstream producers however were struggling to pass on rising feedstock costs to their buyers

Thinning margins have led to some mulling lowering operating rates at its resin plants

Petrochemicals Analytics SolutionsOur new and enhanced petrochemical analytics and insight puts you in a stronger position so you can optimise your trades plans and strategies in order to secure a competitive advantage

ICIS is the only information provider to offer this unique combination of analytics tools as one subscription alongside pricing data and analysis

Live Supply Disruption TrackerPlant outages and maintenance for the next 12 months plus the impact of capacity changes

3 Pre-empt competition and capitalise on trades impacted by outages

3 Be aware of market shortages with a real-time view to manage risk and ensure security of stock

3 Negotiate better prices with other market players

Supply amp Demand OutlooksQuarterly global supply and demand review and outlook for key value chains and regions

3 Support your short-term strategy with upstream and downstream market sentiment and expectations for the current quarter at a regional level

3 Expand opportunities in international trade3 Understand at-a-glance the regional supply and

demand outlook across six key commodity chains

Price Drivers AnalyticsCross-commodity and cross-regional analysis of importexport parity substitution trends and feedstockdownstream spreads

3 Gain new context and negotiating tools in addition to ICIS price assessments

3 Pre-empt competition and spot opportunities with visual charts and impact commentaries

3 Reduce the time spent making manual calculations and spend more time on strategy and acting on market opportunities

4

360 view of the market l See the global market from

all anglesl Achieve better price

flexibilityl Enrich strategy plans with

validated quality datasets

Real-time information l Powered by 43000 plant

data in the ICIS Supply andDemand Database and 247global market coverage byICIS editors

l Information updated inreal time in line with ICISproduction news

Complex analytics made simple l Real-time visualisation with

impact analysisl Interactive customisable

view with advanced filteringl Supplement in-house

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NEW

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AROMATICSTOLUENE

CHINA IMPORTS TO UNDERPIN ASIA TOLUENE MARKET IN H2 2018By Trixie Yap

Asiarsquos toluene market direction in the second half of this year will be determined by the buying activity from Chinese importers which has been the key factor influencing its prices so far in 2018

FOB (free on board) Korea prices which have been fluctuating in a wider-than-expected range for the past month closed at $760-785tonne in the week ended 1 June for June and July-loading parcels

The decreases at the close on 1 June marked the end of three weeksrsquo worth of stable-to-firm price trend

This followed weaker import demand from China for July which mainly stemmed from the ending of traders replenishing shore tank inventories at eastern ports such as Jiangsu

CFR (cost amp freight) China prices were in a sideways trend for most parts of early 2018 up to March at $690-765tonne

Prices only picked up after April and hit a peak of $835tonne CFR China after fluctuating in the $700-710tonne CFR China range for a few weeks

Unlike earlier expectations when market players were hoping for Chinese import demand to peak after the post early-March Lunar New Year period CFR China buying activity remained muted and only rose after May because of improved demand from the gasoline blenders

Blending demand received a boost because of lower gasoline production from state-owned refineries amid a spate of turnarounds in China ndash mainly in the eastern regions ndash starting end April to June

The better blending economics for toluene in early May particularly for the oil majors paved the way for demand as well

Back to Quick Navigation | 15Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Toluene-isomer xylenes spread on an ex-tank basis was wider with toluene being much more price friendly for gasoline production as compared to isomer xylene

With the 1 May implementation of a new online tax-filing system for oil and chemical products oil majors had no choice but to buy blend stocks themselves

Back to Quick Navigation | 16Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

instead of gasoline cargoes directly as the government was effectively making private gasoline blending activities unworkable as these blenders will not be able to potentially avoid tax payments via the paper filing system now

The presence of higher-than-expected inventories at east China main ports ndash stock levels hit a high of 76700 tonnes in early March ndash contributed further to the later timing of import demand Inventories only fell significantly after April (see chart above)

The only key issue hampering import demand from improving further was the

generally weak off taking activities from the downstream chemical sectors as isocynates benzoic acid benzyl chloride and other types of solvent products

The downstream demand was hampered because of low and unchanged operating rates because of stricter environmental regulations imposed by the government since second-half 2017

Looking ahead however the bleak demand situation for toluene from the chemical downstream sector could reverse soon starting August-September because of Wan Hua Chemicalrsquos new TDI plant start-up

The TDI plantsrsquo nameplate capacity is currently 300000 tonnesyear which could equate to around 160000 tonnesyear of toluene usage according to several market players

While this may not directly represent an increase in demand for CFR China import toluene cargoes it is likely to boost domestic toluene demand within north China particularly Shandong region and allow for potential arbitrage flows within the country

This in turn may support import parity of yuan-denominated ex-tank prices and allow for healthy distributor margins ndash if they consider to buy CFR China cargoes which is a key driver for majority of these import buyers

Market participants in China were quick to note also that supply increments ndash following at least three new plant start-ups this year ndash will outpace demand increments whichcould pose a problem in determining whichwill have a larger impact on import demandand prices

ldquoThe additional capacities may not be sold into the merchant market because there will still be captive usage since these producers are refineries with gasoline requirements and fulfilmentsrdquo one east China-based trader said

Ultimately it will be dependent on how the internal consumption for gasoline ndash of these new start-ups ndash will pan out leading up to the year-end

Changes in average operating rates of state-owned refineries due to turnarounds or outages will be another direction driver

Aside from China demand-supply fundamentals the other key price driver is the supply balance within Asia

Supply has been generally long between January and May owing to the stable operating plant rates and overall sufficient availability in southeast Asia a key net exporter within the region

Availability of northeast Asian cargoes was curtailed at some points in time ndash particularly in February and March ndashbecause of turnarounds

Back to Quick Navigation | 17Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 18Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

However supply has been steadily rising for cargoes loading in May and June ndash with the market seeing an additional of close to 30000 tonnes of product from South Korea alone ndash as some downstream plants had ongoing shutdown plans all the way till early July (see right)

All of these cargoes as expected are heading to China because of the opened arbitrage window for exports during the same time period

The increment in excess spot supply from South Korea ndash going forward ndash will be driven by downstream spreads for TDP operators since the benzene-toluene spreads have been narrowing consistently from March when the spreads hit a peak

The healthy spreads between toluene and xylenes (para and isomer) have been the only saving grace for the TDP market

ldquoBenzene demand-supply fundamentals are likely to continue remaining weak with increments in supply still expected from Middle East and Vietnam from June so that is going to still put pressure on TDP operators whether to run their unit with more toluene or less toluene [since they can adjust the amount of feedstock]rdquo one northeast Asian end-user said

ldquoBenzene demand-supply fundamentals are likely to continue remaining weak with increments in supply still expected from Middle East and Vietnam from June so that is going to still put pressure on TDP operators whether to run their unit with more toluene or less toluene [since they can adjust the amount of feedstock]rdquo one northeast Asian end-user said

There is also hope that supply will be curbed again in the autumn season ndash when several plants start their planned maintenances ndash to provide a temporary relief to the readily sufficient spot availability

Ultimately if Chinarsquos importing activity continues to be robust there will be no issues with them soaking up the excess supplies at any point of time

ldquoThe key issue is how much these buyers can procure and how long their buying activities can last but so far it has been very sporadic and capped to short time frames because of them being risk averserdquo one southeast Asian trader said

Back to Quick Navigation | 19Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian toluene markets

BASE OILSBASE OILS

ASIA MIDEAST BASE OILS FIRM IN H1 BUT SOME PULLBACK LIKELY IN H2By Jasmine Khoo amp Izham Ahmad

Asia base oils Group I SN150 and Group II 150N prices are expected to remain firm on persistently low supply whereas the heavy grades - Group I SN500 and Group II 500600N - could come under pressure on ample availability

Into the second half of the year base oils supply from Iran are expected to be stable with no known maintenance plans due over the following few months from June and that could add further pressure on prices amid the weak demand outlook

Only one Iranian refiner is due for a maintenance shutdown in the second half of the year possibly sometime in September according to market sources

In Group II like in Asia short supply of 150N and 500600N is expected to support prices in coming months but the Group II segment in the Middle East is a much smaller market for producers

Major Group II and III producers in Saudi Arabia Qatar Bahrain and UAE also continue to focus on their traditional markets outside of the Middle East due to stronger demand and higher margins

Brightstock remained largely stable for June in terms of pricing following deals done at parity with Mayrsquos levels but market players maintained a cautious stance towards brightstock pricing which would typically see downward pressure towards the end of the year

The winter season in parts of Asia would typically herald a period of slow cargo uptake for brightstock as transportation logistics get more challenging

As for Group III base oils northeast Asian-origin lots are expected to see support in spot prices from June as seen from healthy uptake among buyers amid short supply from regional suppliers

Similarly in the Middle East market Group I prices started the year on a firm note

Around mid-February SN500 prices traded up to $80750tonne FOB (free on board) Iran their highest levels since ICIS began tracking the data in November 2015

SN150 also traded their record highs about the same time hitting $72750tonne FOB Iran

These record highs were held until early May despite buyers at the time showing increasing resistance to the higher levels and the uncertainty that took hold of the market ahead of a deadline for the US to decide on whether it would remain in the Iran nuclear deal

On 8 May US president Donald Trump announced that the US will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal and re-impose sanctions on Tehran consequently driving up crude prices to new highs since late 2014

Iranrsquos base oils prices were largely stable in that week but market outlook has been clouded with uncertainties following the USrsquo decision to re-impose sanctions on the country

Group I SN500 prices were stable through the early half of May at $780-805tonne FOB Iran while Group I SN150 were holding at $710-745tonne FOB Iran since early-February according to ICIS data

Prices began to decline around mid-May when it became more apparent that the increased sanctions would cause at least some disruptions to business dealings with Iranian entities

Market players said they encountered difficulties in financial transactions with Iran and many financial institutions were reluctant to take on any dealings involving Iran-based businesses for fear of conflicting with the US sanctions

On the supply side market players in the UAE said there were sufficient cargoes built up over recent months and as such

there was less demand for further spot deals in Group I particularly with the threat of renewed sanctions

Mid-May also marked the start of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan which is a typically slow season for the Middle East

Certain manufacturing activities are reduced as factories observed shorter operating hours and as many workers took some vacation time as well

The Eid ul-Fitr long holidays followed the end of Ramadan in mid-June

Asiarsquos base oils market trends for certain widely-traded Group I grades snapped out of persistent uptrend in late April against a backdrop of increasingly squeezed buyersrsquo margins and waning demand

Steady gains in FOB Asia spot prices were recorded since September 2017 on the back of regional shortages as demand surpassed output

This was partly fuelled by natural disasters in the US when Hurricane Harvey disrupted between 20 and 25 of the countryrsquos refining capacity in August

The disruption to base oils production at some units led to increased appetite for deep-sea shipments from Asia to the US

In the current market SN500 prices registered the greatest drops among the ICIS assessed grades shedding slightly more than 12 of its spot pricing between 13 April and 25 May ICIS data showed

Market participants attributed the price dip to lackluster demand brought about by a supply overhang of domestically-produced SN400 in the local Chinese market

Competitive pricing of SN400 amid ample availability curtailed import appetite among China-based buyers for SN500 of Asian origin especially since some buyers were still holding on to sufficient stocks for the near term

Back to Quick Navigation | 20Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Brightstock prices also softened reflecting increasingly squeezed buyersrsquo margins following steep gains seen from 22 September 2017 to 23 March 2018 in FOB Asia export prices

Some buyers were also sitting on sufficient inventories from active procurement earlier in the year leading to waned demand

This led refiners and traders to cut offers to encourage cargo uptake for May shipment cargoes

Group II 150N and 500600N prices largely held up on the back of potential supply woes in the summer season amid scheduled shutdowns at major Asian refineries

Taiwanrsquos Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) is expected to conduct planned maintenance in July market sources said

This led market players to hold on to expectations of buoyed spot prices for Group II base oils in the near term though significant increase is not expected for certain grades such as 500600N amid ample spot availability in the region

Group III 4 and 6cst base oils largely continued their steady price uptrend reflecting short supply among key South Korean Group III suppliers

8cst base oils of northeast Asian origin amid comparatively greater availability than its lighter counterparts saw less gains in prices since the beginning of 2018

South Korean-origin Group III base oils prices were mostly buoyant despite an influx of Middle East-origin Group III base oils into the northeast Asian market since November 2017 as South Korean-origin Group III users adhered largely to using the same material due to formulation restrictions and related OEM approvals

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian base oils markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 21Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPURIFIED TEREPHTHALIC ACID (PTA)

ASIA PTA SUPPLY TO LENGTHEN IN H2 ON INDIA CHINA PLANT START-UPSBy Samuel Wong

Supply of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in Asia is expected to lengthen in the second half of 2018 as new capacities will start up in the major markets of India and China amid a slowdown in demand

Major plants would have resumed production after unplanned outages to ease the current global supply tightness that has been driving up Asian prices while demand typically weakens in the third quarter

Asian PTA prices may start to come under pressure as fresh supply will hit the markets when new major regional plants start production in the third quarter

ldquoMarket sentiment is currently pessimistic about the outlook however this can quickly change if we see a sudden uptick in downstream demandrdquo a China-based producer said

In India JBF Grouprsquos 125m tonneyear PTA unit in Mangalore is expected to start up in the third quarter although the schedule is still fluid according to several market participants

In China Fuhaichuang Petrochemical formerly known as Dragon Aromatics (Zhangzhou) is planning to resume operations at its complex in the third quarter of 2018 after a prolonged shutdown

Its petrochemical complex in Zhangzhou has a 45m tonneyear PTA plant comprisings three 15m tonneyear lines two of which have been in operation since end-2017 The company is likely to restart the third line once smooth operations at its upstream paraxylene (PX) unit at the site is achieved market players said

In Europe Indorama Ventures Portugal plans to start up in July an idled 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Sines Thailand-based Indorama Ventures Ltd acquired the

plant from Portuguese Artlant PTA in late 2017

All these factors should see the narrowing of the price gap between Chinarsquos import and domestic markets as early as July after widening steadily from March to May

As of 12 June the gap stood at $96tonne down from the peak of about $111tonne on 30 May

Asiarsquos PTA prices are currently steady at firm levels Regional end-users preferred to procure cargoes on a need-to basis and were not keen on building inventories

Future movement will depend on market conditions in the downstream polyester industry

The wide price gap in Chinarsquos import and domestic markets has been deterring Chinese buyers from tapping the international spot market for supplies since March while demand was healthy especially in the downstream polyethylene terephthalate (PET) markets

Tight global supply in the first half saw Asian producers shipping out cargoes to the Middle East as well as Europe which was hit by unplanned outages in Belgium and Poland in April

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In Europe BP Chemical on 15 April declared a force majeure at its Belgium PTA unit and a second force majeure on 17 May PKN Orlen on 23 April declared a force majeure at its Wloclawek PTA unit in Poland which was subsequently lifted on 2 May with spot cargoes from the plant limited until after a planned maintenance in SeptemberOctober 2018

Within Asia the southeastern region has had PTA plant outages and had to procure cargoes from the northeast in the preceding two months

Regional supply tightened further with the unexpected shutdown of Hanwha General Chemicalrsquos 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Daesan prompting a force majeure declaration on 21 May

In the first half of 2018 strong growth in demand in the downstream polyester markets in Asia particularly China supported the rally in PTA prices amid tight supply

Downstream polyester markets were enjoying positive margins keeping demand for feedstock PTA healthy

In the key China market operating rates at polyester units were higher compared with the previous year

The countryrsquos PTA production losses in January-June 2018 on the other hand were estimated at around 134m tonnes due to planned and unplanned outages

Asiarsquos PTA producers were largely enjoying healthy margins on the back of steady demand growth in the downstream polyester markets Firmer upstream energy

and feedstock PX prices have also buoyed PTA prices

In January to May 2018 Brent crude traded at $6692-7616bbl up by about 25 year

on year while PX prices were at $938-994tonne representing a 15 increase over the same period

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian purified terephthalic acid (PTA)) markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 23Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPOLYETHYLENE TEREPHTHALATE (PET)

ASIA PET TO REMAIN FIRM IN Q3 AS TIGHT SUPPLY SUPPORT PRICESBy Hazel Goh

Asian polyethylene terephthalate (PET) market is likely to remain firm in the third quarter on the back of tight supply a trend that has supported prices so far in 2018

Recently PET tight supply is a result of production cuts in Asia and Europe that have not had a clear estimated date of resuming normal operations

China Resources Packaging had cut production at its PET lines in Changzhou by 50 following notice from the government to reduce pollution in end-May It is not known for how long the production cuts will remain in place

In Europe there had been feedstock purified terephthalic acid (PTA) supply tightness leading to recent PET production cuts and force majeure by Novapet and JBF respectively

Many buyers had been purchasing on a need-to basis expecting that firm prices are unsustainable and will come down Subsequently they did not stock up cargoes ahead of the peak summer demand season for countries in the northern hemisphere

The reality turned out different and they had to accept higher prices as production cuts kept the supply tight

PET used to track feedstock price movements closely as it had been an oversupplied market and producers typically operate on thin margins

The oversupply situation changed and tightness was first felt in the third quarter of 2017 when plant closures by JBF RAK in the UAE and Belgium and by Mossi amp Ghisolfi (MampG) in the US Mexico and Brazil following financial tightness in the two PET-producing companies

Hurricane Harvey that hit the US in the third quarter led to further production cuts in the US

Back to Quick Navigation | 24Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 1

From then on supply remained tight as the plant under JBF RAK in the UAE and the former MampG plant in the US that had been acquired by Far Eastern remained shut for extended period of time even into 2018

Market players previously had concerns about where China will export its material when final anti-dumping duties (ADD) - heard to be at the same level as thepreliminary duties of 398-530 - wereimposed on its cargoes into Japan inJanuary

Japan was the top exporting destination for Chinese cargoes before the ADD following which the exports dropped drastically

While other producers such as Taiwanese southeast Asian Indian and South Korean producers sold more volumes into Japan Chinese makers sold to other markets that were relinquished by the other producers

Table 1 shows a significant difference between 2016 and 2017 in Chinarsquos export volumes to key destinations from the January-to-March period

Ranked by volume starting with largestvolume as 1

There is an ongoing anti-dumping duty (ADD) investigation by the US on PET cargoes from Brazil Pakistan Indonesia Taiwan and South Korea

The Commerce Department issued the preliminary dumping rates for Indonesia at 1316 South Korea at 881-10141 and Taiwan at 902-1189 in May Final determinations will be issued by 8 November

Even so some producers from the countries under investigation continued to receive buying enquiries from the US amid the current tight supply situation

There will be some upcoming new capacities expected in Q3 as shown in table 2 that may bring about a more balanced supply to meet the demand

The US plant acquired by Far Eastern is estimated to restart in June-July which should also ease the supply tightness

Even with the new capacities and plant restarts market participants think it is unlikely that PET market will return to the oversupply situation seen in the previous years

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian PET markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 25Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 2

Our English-language report coverage includes

Styrene MEG Propylene

BTX Methanol Base Oil

BPA PE MTBE

Phenol PP Mixed AromaticsAcetone Oxo-Alcohol

Trusted industryintelligence for Chinarsquoscommodity marketsDevelopments in Chinarsquos petrochemicals industrycontinue to affect the global marketplace It istherefore vital for domestic and internationalmarket players to keep track of changes withinthe country to know where opportunities lie

ICIS has long been recognised as a reliablesource of information our locally-based expertscompile reports and analyses in English tosupport industry participants dealing with Chinamarkets or seeking to trade or invest

Pricing informationOur pricing data provide key insights into pricetrends in China to support your short-termdecision-making negotiations and analyses

bull Import and export spot and contract pricesbull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity

and upstreamdownstream marketsbull Data on inventory levels and price marginsbull Plant and production news

Petrochemicals Analytics SolutionsProviding our customers with a 360-degree view of the Chinese market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker - real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for thenext 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics - key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock anddo wnstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlooks

Available for key chemical commodities

wwwiciscomchina

Discover how we can meet your market information needs

enquiryiciscom

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESMONOETHYLENE GLYCOL (MEG)

ASIA MEG TO SEE DEMAND TAPERING LOWER SUPPLY IN EARLY H2By Eric Su

The Asian monoethylene glycol (MEG) market could see demand slowing down from the end of June while supply will be reduced from a number of plant turnarounds

Inventories are expected to decline in June after offtake rates at Chinese main ports rose sharply in the last two weeks of May because of an uptick in demand from downstream polyester buyers

Demand for MEG is also expected to remain strong in the first half of June boosted by high polyester production rates of above 85 and modestly low inventory levels

A slowdown in demand may take place in the second half of June as the traditional manufacturing peak period nears its end in July

Meanwhile supply conditions could tighten because of the plant turnarounds in northeast Asia

However supply from the Middle East will likely resume to normal levels given that there were no further delay in shipments in May

MEG prices in Asia have registered year-on-year growth rates in the months to June this year

MEG prices have mostly hovered above $900tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China Main Port (CMP) while prices were mostly below $900tonne CFR CMP in 2017

Prices have been volatile in 2018 with major price swings seen on a near monthly basis since February

MEG prices in first quarter of 2018 continued the uptrend seen in the fourth quarter of 2017 rising to $1030tonne CFR CMP in early March from $922tonne CFR

CMP in late December as the higher-than-expected growth in downstream polyester fuelled bullish market sentiment

Polyester growth in 2017 was estimated at above 10 beating an originally bearish expectation of 2-3

A price downtrend was observed in March with the MEG weekly average price losing nearly 10 of its value to $929tonne CFR CMP by end-March

The price decline coincided with a sharp influx of imported cargoes which was likely a result of over-procurement in January

Back to Quick Navigation | 26Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

and February when prices were trending upwards

March 2018 import volumes rose to nearly 1m tonnes a record three-year high according to official China customs data

MEG prices rebounded in April rising by around 9 from end-March to $1014tonne CFR CMP by end-April ahead of the traditional peak period for the downstream polyester sector The average polyester production rate rose to above 85 during the period

MEG also achieved its to-date weekly peak of $1042tonne CFR CMP in the week ending 20 April

Supply tightness was also observed in the Chinese domestic market because of shipment delays from the Middle East and logistical issues at China main ports over the same period

The lack of availability of prompt cargoes also led to an atypical price spread between April and May delivery parcels

Normally the spread between arrived-at-port and far-term arrival cargoes is at $0-10tonne CFR CMP but this widened to $20-30tonne CFR CMP This drove concerns of sharp price adjustments in May once April deliveries were fulfilled

These concerns came true as MEG prices

began to slide in May MEG weekly prices stood at $928tonne CFR CMP in the last week of May falling from $1003tonne CFR CMP in early May

High inventory levels have also weighed on MEG prices Inventory levels were above 900000 tonnes from early May onward rising to 938000 tonnes by in late March Most market participants deemed inventory levels above 900000 tonnes to be high

The increase in inventory levels in May were largely attributed to the arrival of Middle East shipments which were previously due for arrival in April

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian MEG markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 27Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSETHYLENE

NE ASIA ETHYLENE H2 OUTLOOK HINGES ON NEW SUPPLY SM PLANTBy Yeow Pei Lin

Northeast (NE) Asiarsquos ethylene (C2) second-half 2018 outlook is uncertain as several crackers are scheduled for maintenance but such production losses could be offset by the start up of a new plant and cargoes from outside the region

More than 20 crackers in Asia are slated to undergo maintenance in 2018 with the estimated capacity losses totalling more than 185m tonnes Most of the turnarounds in the first half of the year were concentrated in Japan ndash a key exporter to China

However several more companies are to carry out turnarounds in June and the rest of the year

The impact on the regional balance will depend on the start-up progress of a new facility in South Korea and on whether the strong exports from southeast Asia and Europe in the first half of 2018 will continue

Shipments from Yeosu South Korea will start to slow down in August ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at complexes in that region

Exports will recover by December when Lotte Chemical brings on-stream an added capacity of 200000 tonnesyear at its Yeosu cracker

The facility will undergo an expansion during a turnaround from late September to October

Shipments from Ulsan another petrochemical cluster in South Korea will grow in the second half of 2018

Newcomer S-Oil is expected to begin commercial operations at its residue upgrading complex (RUC) in Onsan in the second half of June

The companyrsquos entire ethylene output of up

to around 200000 tonnesyear is intended for the merchant market as it does not have any downstream plants

Exports from southeast Asian producers will continue to be driven by the higher value from ethylene sales in the ethylene versus polyethylene (PE) trade-off

There will however be supply constraints

Four crackers in the region will undergo

maintenance and the affected producers include ExxonMobil and PTT Global Chemicals (PTTGC) that were regular exporters in the first half of 2018

Exports from Europe will likely be influenced by the performance of the PE sector

The outlook for the PE market in Europe is uncertain given the growing prospect of competitively-priced exports from the new US plants

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Ethylene costs in the US have been at low levels since early 2018 as production growth outpaces that for consumption

Since late 2017 about 3m tonnesyear of new ethylene capacity and about 35m tonnesyear of new PE capacity have started up in the US

The new crackers have been running well but several of the new PE plants struggled to reach full operating rates

Exports from Saudi Arabia are expected to be constrained by increased domestic consumption

Petro Rabigh announced in April that the last few plants in its Phase 2 project including a 75000 tonneyear ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) unit have started up

The companyrsquos ethylene exports could fall further in the second half of 2018 following the completion of its PE plant maintenance shutdowns earlier in the year

Chinarsquos import demand is poised for further growth when a new 260000 tonneyear styrene monomer (SM) plant starts up in the third quarter as planned

Anhui Haoyuan Chemical will be operating the unit in Fuyang Anhui on a standalone basis as its plans to build a methanol-to-olefin (MTO) plant have been put on hold amid high methanol prices

The plant will require around 78000 tonnes of ethylene annually to operate at maximum capacity

Based on the above factors it was not immediately clear if the ethylene prices in the second half will follow the volatile trend they displayed in the first five months of 2018

NE Asia spot ethylene prices were volatile from January to May as the impact of a heavy regional cracker turnaround schedule and strong Chinese demand was at times outweighed by strong exports from southeast Asia the Middle East and Europe

The market started the year at above a two and a half year high of $1415tonne CFR (cost amp freight) NE Asia in early January

Subsequent transacted prices fluctuated within a low $1200stonne to mid $1300stonne CFR NE Asia band in the five months ended 31 May

Prices in the first quarter were initially weighed down by ample supply from producers in the Middle East and Asia due to a series of PE plant shutdowns - both planned and unplanned

That was despite strong pre-Lunar New Year holiday restocking activities in China

Demand was bolstered by the start up of a 500000 tonneyear non-integrated SM plant and generally healthy downstream margins for producers outside the PE sector

End-users were also keen to build up their inventories because of the slow progress in their 2018 term contract discussions ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at facilities of key exporters in the region

In addition a major ethylene oxide (EO) maker was seeking more import cargoes following a disruption in supply from its upstream MTO unit The plant was shut twice between late November and the first half of February because of high feedstock methanol costs

The market recovered in early March in line with the start of the annual cracker turnaround season in northeast Asia where

scheduled capacity losses in 2018 will be overall higher than the previous year

That explained why the countryrsquos exports from January to April slumped by 14 year-on-year to 201274 tonnes

In late April northeast Asiarsquos spot prices fell again after a surprisingly large quantity of deep-sea spot cargoes were sold into Asia for delivery between the middle of May and the first half of June

There were at least 55000-60000 tonnes of cargoes from Europe in addition to 11000 tonnes of US supply for that delivery period Europe was in a long position because of derivative maintenance shutdowns and production problems

Continued strong exports from southeast Asia owing to downstream production issues and the weak performance of the linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) market contributed to the downbeat sentiment

The ample supply outweighed Chinarsquos robust import demand

Buying interest in China was strong for April and May arrival cargoes on the back

Back to Quick Navigation | 29Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

of healthy downstream margins for certain downstream markets such as SM EO and monoethylene glycol (MEG)

Ethylene buyers in China were also keen to book deep-sea cargoes to offset the expected regional production losses from cracker turnarounds

Prices rebounded quickly in mid-May

aided by a bullish SM market and reduced domestic supply

Some MTO operators lowered production in May as high feedstock methanol costs led to squeezed margins while a key producer in east China lowered its cracker run rates unexpectedly

Sharp increases in feedstock naphtha costs

which tracked gains on crude oil futures also helped set a floor to the earlier price declines

By early June spot ethylene prices had touched a 20-week high raising questions on whether the market will see similar price volatility in the second half of 2018

Producers will turn hawkish if the outlook for crude and naphtha markets remains upbeat

Back to Quick Navigation | 30Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSPROPYLENE

TIGHT NE ASIA PROPYLENE SUPPLY TO LIMIT H2 PRICE FLUCTUATIONSBy Joson Ng

Tight propylene (C3) supply in northeast Asia amid a heavy turnaround schedule in 2018 will continue supporting regional prices of the material into the second half

Sellers are likely to continue passing on firmer costs to buyers which are wary of October when heavy propylene production losses are expected

Buyersrsquo resistance in the key China market would keep any further increase in propylene prices in check with some downstream producers considering cutting output due to high feedstock costs

At the start of June propylene prices have weakened ending the strong general uptrend since end-March amid weakness in Chinarsquos domestic market as demand softened due to turnarounds at downstream polypropylene (PP) plants

However the downward pressure on regional prices may be temporary as overall supply in Asia is expected to be tight

In early June spot propylene prices in northeast Asia were about 9 higher from the start of 2018 according to ICIS data

The year started on a bullish note fuelled by a heavier cracker turnaround schedule compared with 2017 and higher premium levels concluded for contract cargoes

The uptrend was sustained into February due to restocking activities in various import markets in northeast Asia before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February

Before the holidays some South Korean producers were convinced the market will experience supply shortage as both GS Caltexrsquos fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity and Yeochun NCCrsquos (YNCC) cracker ndash which can produce 280000 tonnesyear of propylene ndash were due for maintenance in February through to April

But propylene prices surprisingly weakened from 9 February to end-March without demand support from Chinarsquos weak PP market which struggled through sluggish sales and high inventory after the countryrsquos week-long Lunar New Year holiday

A renewed wave of scheduled turnarounds at regional plants tightened supply and drove up propylene prices in April and May

In Taiwan Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) took its residue fluid catalytic

Back to Quick Navigation | 31Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

cracking (RFCC) unit with a 350000 tonneyear propylene capacity off stream from 1 March to mid-April while CPC Corp shut its 100000 tonneyear FCC unit on 10 April and restarted in early June

In South Korea GS Caltex also had a turnaround at its FCC unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity from 19 February to 5 April

SK Advanced shut its propane dehydrogenated (PDH) unit with 600000 tonneyear propylene capacity on 21 April to early May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian propylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 32Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

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ICIS price forecast reportsSupply demand and price trends at a glance

ICIS price forecast reports provide a clear view of prices and supply and demand trends for the next 12 months Packed with vital information the report includes everything you need to assess where the market is heading and the impact or opportunity that presents for your business

To find out more or take a trial visit wwwiciscompriceforecast

Price Forecast Window

ICIS price forecasts are now available on the Dashboard channel using the Price Forecast Window which will enable users to

n Chart the price forecast against the last (rolling) twelve months of related price history

n Plot the last 12 months to view forecast progression and ICIS forecast accuracy

n Convert data into different currencies and units and download this data into Excel in order to easily enter into your own calculations

How price forecast reports can help youn Understand the marketUse ICIS price forecast reports to understand where the market is heading and identify the risks and the opportunities for your business What are the major demand developments for your product n Safeguard commercial decisionsUse market information to make better-informed business decisions relating to supply and demand Learn about changes in market capacities What factors will affect supply for you n Budgeting and planningWhether you are planning how much you will be spending in the short-to medium or even long term use the price forecast reports to help assess future prices for your product What will the price of your product be in six monthsrsquo time

Price forecast reports currently

available

Available as price forecast windows only

Polypropylene

Polyethylene

Benzene

StyrenePolystyrene

Methanol

Ethylene

Propylene

Styrene

Asia Europe US Global

3

3

3

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3

3

3

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OLEFINSBUTADIENE

ASIA BD TO FLUCTUATE IN H2 AS SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE SHIFTSBy Helen Yan

Asiarsquos butadiene (BD) spot prices for July shipments are likely to face downward pressure but any price downtrend is likely to reverse when cracker turnarounds start to kick in from September onwards

BD prices are expected to be weighed down before seeing support again in the third quarter as the supply and demand balance shifts during this period

The fourth quarter will likely see support for BD prices although the increases may be tempered by resistance from the downstream synthetic rubber (SR) makers to any significant price hikes

The busy cracker turnaround season in September-November will likely see supply tightening at the same time that demand is expected to pick up during this period

Several crackers and BD units including South Korearsquos Lotte Chemical LG Chem and Chinarsquos Shanghai Secco and Maoming Petrochemical are scheduled to shut during

the September to November time frame

In the near term BD spot prices are likely to continue to trend lower as demand wanes while supply at the same time is expected to lengthen due to an influx of deep-sea cargoes and regional cracker restarts

More than 15000 tonnes of deep-sea cargoes from EU are expected to arrive in Asia in June and July at the same time that crackers in Asia including Indiarsquos Haldia Petrochemical and Indonesiarsquos Chandra Asri resume their production following their maintenance shutdowns

On 8 June spot prices fell to $1725tonne CFR (cost amp freight) northeast (NE) Asia the second consecutive week of decline after spiralling upwards in the two months since early April

BD spot prices had increased by more than 40 since early April peaking at $1800tonne CFR NE Asia on 25 May

Strong demand from derivative acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) makers which were running their plants at optimal rates had bolstered the BD price upsurge during this period

However derivative styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) and polybutadiene rubber (PBR) producers the key consumers of BD cut their production output given the continued erosion in margins

Several major SBR and PBR producers said their margins had fallen into negative territory and retreated from the BD spot market in June

Chinese spot appetite in particular tapered off as domestic BD prices were lower compared with the US dollar-denominated import prices

In China Hangzhou Zhechen Jilin Petrochemical Zhejiang Transfar and Shen Hua Chemical were some of the SBR and PBR plants that are shut for maintenance in June and July

Several SBR and PBR plants in Taiwan and South Korea were also running at lower rates following the 40 BD price spike in the two months from early April to end-May

In South Korea major SR producer Korea Kumho Petrochemical PC was running its SBR and PBR plants at reduced rates

Back to Quick Navigation | 33Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian butadiene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 34Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Similarly Taiwanrsquos TSRC also cut the production output of its SBR and PBR plants

The outlook for the fourth quarter is expected to see a different turn of events with SBR and PBR plants resuming their production and ramping up their operating rates while supply during the last quarter is expected to tighten from the heavy cracker turnaround season

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYETHYLENE (PE)

SOUTHEAST ASIA PE MARKET FACES LONGER H2 SUPPLY WEAK DEMANDBy Felita Widjaja

Southeast Asiarsquos polyethylene (PE) market may be facing longer supply in the second half hinging on how the US-China trade spat plays out amid the regionrsquos weakening demand for imports

Global PE trade flows will be affected should China the biggest importer of spot PE cargoes in the world decide to impose retaliatory 25 tariff on US cargoes

Southeast Asia as an alternative buying region might be hard pressed to absorb additional supply from the US where massive PE capacities recently started up which were meant to cater to huge Chinese demand

Around 5m tonnes of additional US PE capacities are expected from several major projects including those in the pipeline to start up within the second half of 2018

China primarily imports PE cargoes from Asia and the Middle East while the US is its sixth leading PE supplier in 2017

ldquoEventually more substantial and regular volume of US [PE] cargoes are expected to be traded in Asia in the second half of the year as we have yet to see them in the first half of this yearrdquo said a regional trader

Any changes in trade flows would pose challenges to US suppliers in the short term as they would need to revamp their logistics and distribution channels to redirect cargoes to other markets

Suppliers from the Middle East meanwhile might take the opportunity to supply more cargoes to China and would mean fewer volumes available to the southeast Asian market

The Middle East is southeast Asiarsquos major PE supplier

Demand for PE imports in southeast Asia has been weak amid lower prices in

Back to Quick Navigation | 35Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

the domestic markets as in the case of Thailand

ldquoThai traders are not keen to import as local prices are more competitive so they do not have the margin to sell the imported cargoes in local market Only some converters who need specific cargoes continue to importrdquo said a local Thai trader

Malaysia and Indonesia with predominantly Muslim populations have seen market activity slow down since mid-May when the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan started Ramadan ends with the Eid ul-Fitr holiday on 15 June

The Indonesian government has declared a longer Eid-ul Fitr holiday this year from 11-20 June

Markets in Singapore and the Philippines will be closed for the mid-June holiday as well

With supply expected to become long some market players expect regional PE prices in July and August to ease from

June with restocking activities expected to kick in towards the end of the third quarter

In the first half of 2018 southeast Asiarsquos average prices for commodity PE were largely stable to firm owing to suppliersrsquo relatively comfortable-to-tight supply for most of the period

At the start of June high density polyethylene (HDPE) film grade prices averaged $1395tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia while linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) film were at $1210tonne CFR SE Asia and $1265tonne CFR SE Asia respectively according to ICIS data

Prices had spiked in the first quarter as suppliers were holding comfortable-to-tight inventory as several regional producers have scheduled turnarounds at their plants in March Production issues and shutdowns in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia also limited availability of imports to southeast Asia during this period

Supply for HDPE film was particularly tight as some producers from the Middle East as well as Asia switched their focus into making HDPE pipe grade amid robust demand and better netbacks

The price uptrend across most PE grades could not be sustained in the second quarter although prices remained relatively stable-to-firm

The depreciation of local currencies in southeast Asia against the US dollar in most of the second quarter was also curbing overall demand for imports A weaker currency makes US dollar-denominated imports expensive

ldquoIndonesian buyers have not been buying much cargoes as the market slowed down during Ramadan and also because of weak rupiah which led the central bank to increase interest rate to limit the depreciationrdquo said a regional producer

CHINA PE IMPORTS TO STAY STRONG AMID DOMESTIC PLANT TURNAROUNDS By Angie Li

Chinarsquos polyethylene (PE) imports are expected to remain strong for the rest of the year after posting record volumes in January to April 2018 amid scheduled turnarounds at domestic facilities

Buyers in China have been accumulating imported PE cargoes as these were priced lower compared futures prices since the start of the year

More cargoes will be available to China as new capacities in the US are expected to boost production

For the month of May the countryrsquos PE imports are projected to reach 12m tonnes higher than the monthly average in the first four months of 2018

In January to April 2018 its PE imports volumes totaled 447m tonnes up by 12 from the previous corresponding period according to industry sources

The import volumes were making up for the production losses in the domestic market due to scheduled turnarounds

On 1 June low density PE (LDPE) imports were assessed at $1155-1180tonne linear low density PE (LLDPE) stood at $1150-1170tonne while high density PE (HDPE) film products were at $1340-1400tonne according to ICIS data

The prices have increased 15-62 from end-March but the gains came in lower than market playersrsquo expectations considering the heavy production loss due to turnarounds from April

Back to Quick Navigation | 36Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

An estimated 500000 tonnes are expected to be shaved in the second quarter due to scheduled maintenance at domestic facilities according ICIS data

ldquoWe thought the hefty plant turnarounds in the second quarter should lead to a surge in PE prices but the LDPE and LLDPE prices were less than satisfactory although HDPE prices [were] highrdquo said an east China-based trader referring to both the import and domestic PE prices

Strong imports amid hedging activities bloated the total supply in China in January to April to 998m tonnes up by 8 from the previous corresponding period with supply of LDPE and LLDPE up by 14 and 8 respectively market sources said

Imports of HDPE inched up by 2 over the same period given the gradersquos comparatively higher prices compared with LLDPE and LDPE

Increased availability due to recent capacity expansions and start-ups in Asia the Middle East also fuels Chinarsquos appetite for import cargoes

In the first quarter of 2018 additional cargoes from Saudi Arabia were mostly from Sadara Chemical which started up its 750000 tonneyear swing plant and 350000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Al Jubail during late 2016 and early 2017 respectively

Cargoes of Iran origin augmented the total volume from the UAE as market players try to go around the financial sanctions on Tehran Kordestan Petrochemicalrsquos 300000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Iran came on stream in March 2017

UAErsquos Borouge has also ramped up pipe and HDPE film exports to China during the period according to a supplier in the Middle East

Meanwhile PE imports from Singapore surged 38 year on year while those from India more than doubled to 127000 tonnes according to China Customs data

The ban on waste plastics implemented in China in the year also bolstered imports of virgin PE Some waste plastics processed overseas and then re-entered the market as virgin products but these volumes were limited

Last year China has imported 194m tonnes of PE waste plastics while

volumes in 2018 will be negligible with the implemention of the ban

Chinarsquos PE production this year is expected to increase by around 7 to about 17m tonnes in 2018 with imports projected to grow by 102 to around 13m tonnes according to a source from state-owned petrochemical giant PetroChina

Domestic demand for PE on the other hand is forecast to grow by 8 this year mainly from the packaging and pipe markets

Chinarsquos ongoing campaign to switch to using gas for power generation instead of coal is expected to continue boosting demand for PE gas pipes this year

The packaging industry will also drive up PE consumption underpinned by growth in electronic commerce Chinarsquos express delivery volumes reached 137bn packages during January-April 2018 based on data from the recent China Express Industry Development Conference in May

Back to Quick Navigation | 37Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 38Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

By Jonathan Lopez

ICIS NewsThe leading news service for real-time ground breaking news and analysis on the global petrochemicals markets

The ICIS News services give you unrivalled access to the most in-depth stories impacting the petrochemicals markets influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions

Our team of global editors are reporting around the clock to bring you the latest news and analysis so that you get the full picture of market and pricing developments first providing you with invaluable foresight to take advantage of every opportunity and to stay ahead of your competitors

With ICIS News you will be the first to read

Breaking news on the chemical markets that will impact your business

News on market moves deals and announcements that will affect your organisation

Force majeures closures and developments that influence your commodity prices

Expert analysis on industry trends and hot topics ndash know whatrsquos happening and why

Searchable archive with over 14 million articles from the past 10 years

Chemical Business News Base (CBNB) is a premium resource available on ICIS News It provides you with an extensive external source of upstream and downstream petrochemical news in summarised snapshots so you can quickly and easily get the latest updates on whatrsquos important to you

CBNB offers readers

Fast and consistent coverage on news facts figures from the upstream and downstream petrochemicals industry

Access to over 700 news sources including technical and trade journals company literature market research reports stockbroker reports books and directories

User-friendly search functionality to find articles most relevant to you from around the globe

Quick and easy-to-read summarised snapshots of articles with option to access full articles from the original source

ICIS Chemical Business digital magazine (ICB) Our global team of experts digests and summarises the key issues and their potential impact on the chemical markets offering a comprehensive overview of the key developments that matter most-along with informed opinion and in-depth analysis

ICB features include

In-depth insight into chemical price changes and their impact on the markets

Understand the detail behind the headline news stories

Find out about supply amp demand trends and the factors impacting them

Get the complete picture of the chemical markets ndash all in one e-magazine

Easy access via e-magazine and premium magazine website

Find out more wwwiciscomnews

ICIS News offers access to additional sources including the ICIS Chemical Business Magazine and Chemical Business News Base (CBNB)

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYPROPYLENE (PP)

SE ASIA PP PRICES MAY COME UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 AS SUPPLY LENGTHENSBy Leanne Tan

Southeast Asiarsquos polypropylene (PP) market may come under pressure in the second half of the year on account of lengthening regional supply and weak downstream demand

Spot prices have been on the rise for most of May buoyed by bullish sentiment in the Chinese market and firm upstream feedstock costs

Margins for PP makers have been lower on average compared with levels in the previous year

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refinery amp Petrochemicals is scheduled to start up its 400000 tonneyear PP production unit in the third quarter The project was initially scheduled to start up in the first quarter of 2018

While domestic demand will continue to outstrip local production the countryrsquos reliance on imports may be diminished when the new plant starts up

Converters in the country have been opting to keep inventories lean in the short term amid expectations that prices may eventually weaken when more domestic supply becomes available

ldquoBuyers donrsquot want to buy too much import cargoes now not just because prices are high but also because there will be more locally-produced materials very soonrdquo a Vietnamese trader said

In Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan is expected to start commercial production at its expanded PP facility in Pasir Gudang in June or July The plantrsquos capacity will be raised by 200000 tonnesyear from 400000 tonnesyear

Import availabilities from South Korea are expected to lengthen in the medium-to-long term with S-Oil expected to complete an olefin downstream complex (ODC) at its Onsan refinery in Ulsan which will include a

405000 tonneyear PP capacity

On the demand front weakness is likely to persist in the second half with converters and end-users likely to continue buying spot cargoes on a hand-to-mouth basis

Indonesiarsquos demand in particular has been below expectations since the start of 2018 and this is likely to continue in the second half of the year according to market players

Back to Quick Navigation | 39Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Some players said import demand for dutiable cargoes may increase in the second half of the year as this is typically when the government issues duty exemption facilities

The duty exemption facilities are issued on a yearly basis which enable converters to import some PP volumes without extra cost

In Malaysia the removal of the 6 goods and services tax (GST) so far has had no immediate impact on the PP market although there are some expectations the move could potentially boost demand in the consumer market further down the road

In Vietnam demand for PP flat yarn has entered a seasonal lull from May to early July and will not pick up until August when the summer harvest begins

PP is widely used in the manufacture of woven sacks (for rice sacks) flexible packaging carpets household appliances and automotive parts

Spot PP prices in southeast Asia have been an uptrend for most of the first half

The PP market begun the year on a bullish note with spot prices surging by almost 10 over the course of two months all-origins PP flat yarn prices peaked at $1295tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia on 2 March

Healthy demand in China helped to provide support to spot prices in southeast Asia in the first quarter with a tight global spot supply leading to further price escalations

Some suppliers pulled back from the southeast Asian spot market to capitalise on better netbacks in other countries including Japan and Pakistan leading to further curtailed spot availability in southeast Asia

The market rally started to lose steam in early March amid subdued demand and a build-up of domestic inventories in China after the Lunar New Year holidays

The bearish sentiment soon spilled over into southeast Asia with Chinese suppliers pushing some volumes into southeast Asia amid an open arbitrage window

Vietnam remains the market of choice for Chinese exporters and PP import prices in the country plummeted as the result of the lengthened spot availability

However the bearish run was short-lived and prices soon bottomed out in early April

Bullish momentum in the upstream crude and naphtha markets propelled spot prices of polymers higher

Despite lacklustre downstream demand price hikes in April and May were commonplace as producers sought higher asking prices in view of narrower margins

TIGHT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT CHINA PP MARKET DESPITE WEAK DEMANDBy Dora Xue

Tight supply would buoy up Chinarsquos polypropylene (PP) prices in the near term despite weak downstream demand

The market is expecting heavy production losses following recent unexpected outages at five domestic facilities from May and scheduled turnarounds at other plants

In the week ended on 1 June domestic prices for PP flat yarn in east China were assessed at Chinese yuan (CNY) 9075tonne after a steady increase from early April according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos import prices for the same material stood at $1245tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China largely tracking movement in the domestic market over the past two months according to ICIS data

The strong PP prices have also started to deter buyers from purchasing more spot cargoes

ldquoPP prices are too high We donrsquot want to store too much in our warehouserdquo a buyer said

Downstream demand typically goes on a lull in June and July but any downward pressure on prices will be negated by a further tightening of supply as major plants will be taken off line for maintenance

ldquoWhen the maintenance season finishes in late June [PP] prices may start to go downrdquo a trader said

Demand is considered weakest at Qingdao in the eastern Shandong province due to government-mandated production cuts and logistics restrictions ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (SCO Summit) on 9-10 June

As of 1 June the combined polyolefin inventories of Chinese petrochemical majors Sinopec and PetroChina have declined back to normal levels of 700000 tonnes from a high of 1m tonnes in early March market sources said

Import supply to China may not improve in the short term as suppliers still deem other

Back to Quick Navigation | 40Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

Back to Quick Navigation | 43Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 3: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

ASIA METHANOL FACES SUPPLY-SIDE PRESSURES INTO H2By Kite Chong

Supply-side pressures may continue to weigh on Asiarsquos spot methanol prices into the second half of 2018 following completion of plant turnarounds at major suppliers in the Middle East and with two new plants coming on stream in Iran

Chinarsquos methanol import prices - the benchmark for Asia - have eased in recent weeks but remained higher compared with levels in the past two years

The recent weakness was attributed to a demand slowdown due to shutdowns of major methanol-to-olefins (MTO) facilities with some Chinese end-users emerging as sellers of methanol in the domestic spot market

Downward price pressures may intensify in Asia as export volumes from the Middle East are expected to normalize by late June or early July

Iran which is a major exporter of methanol to China is expected to start up two news facilities with a combined capacity of almost 4m tonnesyear in the second half of 2018

ALCOHOLSMETHANOL

A 23m tonneyear plant operated by Kaveh Galss in Dayyer is due to come on stream in the third quarter while Marjan Petrochemicalrsquos 165myear plant is scheduled to begin production in the fourth quarter The bulk of these output will be for exports

In the US a 175m tonneyear methanol plant ndash the countryrsquos biggest ndash in Beaumont Texas is due to come on stream by the end of June The plant which is now

mechanically complete is a 5050 joint venture between OCI and Consolidated Energy Ltd

There is a possibility that spot cargoes from this plant may head to Asia since South America which is the USrsquo main export market for methanol could face an oversupply

Asiarsquos spot methanol prices were on a general uptrend in the second quarter after

Back to Quick Navigation | 03Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian methanol markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 04Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

weakening in the first three months of the year according to ICIS data

Demand was dented in February by the Lunar New Year holidays across most of northeast and southeast Asia with the Chinese markets closed for a full week

In mid-March the arbitrage window opened for one to two weeks allowing cargoes from China to flow into other parts of Asia including India where prices were higher due to tight supply

AROMATICSBENZENE

ASIA BENZENE DEMAND MAY IMPROVE SUPPLY TO STAY LONG INTO H2By Clive Ong

Asiarsquos benzene demand may improve in July-August with the expected restart of downstream plants from turnarounds with supply to be curtailed by scheduled shutdowns of two regional facilities

But the high inventories in the key China market as well as along the supply chain in Asia will require time to whittle down which will hinge on the strength of demand across Asia in the third quarter

Strong run rates at benzene units in Asia amid turnarounds at downstream styrene monomer (SM) phenol and methyl diphenyl di-isocyanate (MDI) plants caused the build-up in stocks across the region in the first half of this year

Inventories in the key China market piled up above 230000 tonnes in May this year from around 150000 tonnes in December 2017

ldquoMost downstream turnarounds will complete in May and June hence benzene consumption will likely increase from the third quarterrdquo a Singapore-based trader said

Availability of benzene will also be curtailed as SK Global and Ulsan Aromatics have scheduled maintenance at their plants in the second half of MayJune

New supplies could also hit Asia in the third quarter with the start-up Petro Rabighrsquos new 400000 tonneyear benzene facility in the second quarter although operations at this plant remains erratic

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refineryrsquos 250000 tonneyear plant is expected to have benzene cargoes available in July

ldquoDemand for benzene in Asia and the US in the third quarter will play an important role in reducing the supply in the regionrdquo said another trader in Singapore

Back to Quick Navigation | 05Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The spot east-west arbitrage window has not stayed open throughout the first half of 2018 hampering shipping of cargoes to the US South Korea and Japan are key exporters of benzene to the US

ldquoThe arbitrage window was largely open in April but became not viable in Mayrdquo said a South Korea-based producer

Benzene is a base chemical used to make other chemicals such as SM phenol and caprolactam

In the second quarter suppliers in the region were grappling with excess inventories and a lack of outlets for their cargoes

Most key buyers in China Taiwan and southeast Asia have sufficient supplies with little appetite for spot cargoes Lackluster demand caused the CFR (cost amp freight) China prices to fall below FOB (free on board) Korea prices according to ICIS data

Premium for spot parcels into Taiwan (CFR) also declined to the low single digits over FOB Korea in the first half of May as buyers had little spot interest

The situation was just as dismal in southeast Asia where FOB SE Asia prices traded at a discount of $35tonne to FOB Korea at one point in the second half of April

In India FOB India trades were at a discount of more than $50tonne to FOB Korea as demand waned

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian benzene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 06Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

AROMATICSXYLENES

ASIA MX LIKELY TO BE UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 2018 ON WEAK DEMANDBy Deborah Lee

Asian mixed xylenes are likely to face headwinds in H2 2018 on weaker demand from the gasoline blending sector as well as increasing length in downstream markets

Demand for xylenes as a gasoline blending component in China has softened due to lower crude oil prices

Brent futures have come off from a recent peak of over $80bbl to hover at around $75-7750bbl range in June breaking an uptrend seen earlier in the year

Prices of octane boosters typically rise when crude is on an upswing as gasoline margins are expected to increase

Adding to the bleak outlook for gasoline blending materials stockpiles of blending gasoline within China are plentiful sources said

The isomer-grade xylene (IX) cargoes are mainly used as a feedstock for downstream paraxylene (PX) but upcoming capacity will keep a lid on spot IX prices

The new PX production facilities are largely integrated and do not require additional procurement of IX

Already the spread between PX and IX has narrowed from $180-190tonne to $140-150tonne with $120-140tonne being the breakeven point for producers

Earlier in the first half of 2018 strong China demand and firm crude had pushed mixed xylene prices up

Fundamentally demand from China pushed prices higher as the countryrsquos imports of IX had been persistently higher since the end of 2017

Demand for IX as a gasoline blending component was one major factor for the increase in appetite for the material while

another was that an integrated plant in China was purchasing spot IX in the market as a feedstock for its PX plant due to issues with its own IX cargoes

Margins for PX had remained at healthy levels despite the strength in the IX market keeping buying interest in IX as a feedstock healthy

Concerns remained over Chinarsquos new tax policy aimed to reduce tax evasion for gasoline blenders which was originally planned to begin 1 March but the impact was tempered by the clear uptrend in crude futures as well as a strong Chinese yuan

Strength in the yuan helped boost demand for imports as US dollar cargoes were more competitive as a result

Buyers at the same time sought IX cargoes over solvent-grade xylene (SX) on concerns that Chinese authorities would implement an additional consumption tax on mixed aromatics which shares the same HS code as SX There has yet to be an official announcement on the additional consumption tax

Further exacerbating the situation was tight supply with a Japanese producer was scheduled to be shut from June to August for maintenance greatly reducing supply of IX in the region

But the spike in spot prices sparked concerns that demand was unsustainable at that point -- gasoline blending margins were unappealing and stockpiles of blended gasoline in China were high

In May the sharp increase in IX prices eroded PX margins as well adding to concerns that buying interest was not sufficient to keep the market discussions at such high levels

Prices slipped after peaking at $867tonne on 10 May

This was offset when Chinarsquos Maoming Petrochemical successfully started up and achieved on-spec cargoes at its phase II aromatics unit in Guangdong on 20 May The plant is able is produce 400000 tonnesyear of IX

With the new plant adding to domestic supply in China the prospect of import demand was looking dim

Back to Quick Navigation | 07Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Domestic prices of IX in east China were now cheaper than imported prices the CFR northeast Asia price now commanding a small premium to the import parity of local spot discussions

With gasoline blending margins down and ample cheaper substitutes available demand for SX has also taken a hit

But supply remained tight for SX in China with buying interest strong in recent weeks although buyers have lowered bids in line with the fall in the domestic market

Inventory levels have recovered from just 900 tonnes in the middle of May and continue to hover around 5000 tonnes In 2017 weekly SX stockpiles in east China averaged 17172 tonnes

The supply situation was unlikely to ease with production of SX in the region limited due to increasing reliance on lighter feeds such as LPG

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian mixed xylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 08Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Pricing IntelligenceAccess independent price assessments that meet IOSCOrsquos PRA Principles and are widely trusted and used as benchmarks in the industry ICIS coverage is unrivalled with pricing data and information for over 180 commodities across all key regions Make fast and confident decisions and determine the best time to buy or sell with access to l Spot and contract price assessments including personalised alerts to notify you of changes l In-depth analysis and price history to help you track and understand price drivers and trends l Easy access to information with multiple delivery options

Analytics SolutionsICIS offers a unique combination of analytics tools designed to help you navigate and optimise opportunities in an ever-changing market making complex analytics simple for you Our solutions help you react quicker to market developments in a demand-led price-sensitive global marketplace enabling you to l Spot opportunities and minimise risk l Shape future strategy l Maintain a competitive advantage l Supplement your in-house analytics

Specialist ServicesThe global team of ICIS experts brings extensive knowledge of industry sectors through

Expand your knowledge to navigate complex markets more confidently

Get the latest insights into current issues and trends from a hand-picked selection of experts

Get tailored advice and guidance to address your companyrsquos key challenges

Industry NewsOur extensive global network of local experts report breaking news stories that impact chemical markets influence commodity prices and affect your daily business decisions Alerts and our one-stop platform keep you fully informed and support your planning with access to l Real-time news round-the-clock l Analysis and likely market impact l Production news and force majeures

Supply amp Demand DatabaseReceive an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical supply chain for over 100 petrochemical commodities Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacity production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040 ndash providing you with a long-term view of the rapidly changing petrochemical market The database enables you to l Determine the local or regional scenario in a global context to support your planning l Identify evaluate and optimise opportunities l Validate commercial and growth strategies l Identify and manage financial or investment risks

FIND OUT MORE

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FIND OUT MORE

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Critical market data tools and expertise

SPECIALISED TRAINING INDUSTRY CONFERENCES BESPOKE CONSULTANCY

AROMATICSPARAXYLENE

ASIA PX FACES DOWNWARD PRESSURE AS SUPPLY LENGTHENS INTO H2By Samuel Wong

Asiarsquos paraxylene (PX) prices are likely to face downward pressure going into the second half of 2018 due to new capacities coming on stream with no additional downstream units to absorb the supply

A total of 205myear of new PX capacities will be added in the second half including PetroRabighrsquos 135m tonneyear unit in Saudi Arabia and Nghi Son Refinery and Petrochemicalrsquos 700000 tonneyear unit in Vietnam

Asiarsquos PX intermonth spread is currently at a backwardation of $3-4tonne down from $12-15tonne in the first quarter as market participants were gradually pricing in the additional supply PX supply

There are expectations that the market will flip into a contango once smooth operations are achieved at the new PX units

Among new PX capacities PetroRabighrsquos new PX unit is expected to achieve full operations from the third-quarter onward after suffering some technical hiccups in the second quarter

Nghi Son on the other hand is expected to start exporting cargoes from its new PX unit from the second-half of July according to market participants

Asia will be in oversupply of PX as the total capacity increase would require 31m tonnesyear of downstream purified terephthalic acid (PTA) capacities but no firm PTA start-ups are on tap in the next six months

Moreover Chinarsquos Fuhaichuang Petrochemical formerly Dragon Aromatics (Zhangzhou) is planning to resume operations at its idled complex in the third quarter this year after more than three years of shutdown

Its Zhangzhou complex consists of a 16m tonneyear PX plant and a 45m tonneyear downstream PTA plant which constitutes three 15m tonneyear lines two of which have resumed operations since late 2017

According to market participants the company is likely to restart the third PTA line once smooth operations at its PX unit is achieved

In India JBF Grouprsquos 125m tonneyear PTA unit is supposed to begin production in the third quarter of 2018 but the schedule is still fluid according to market players

The company has recently entered into a deal with existing investor KRR for the private equity firm to acquire a majority stake in certain company assets as the company enters into discussions to restructure its debt on 18 May

In Europe Indorama Ventures plans to start up an idled Portugal-based 700000 tonneyear PTA unit which it recently acquired in July The plant formerly known as Artlant PTA originally came on stream in 2012 but closed in 2014 for financial reasons and bar a brief period in operation was subsequently idled

Back to Quick Navigation | 09Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Thailandrsquos Indorama Ventures acquired Atlant PTA in the fourth quarter of 2017

Asian PX prices are currently above those of main feedstock naphtha by more than the breakeven level of $250tonne while PX production via feedstock isomer-xylene through the parex process and feedstock toluene through the toluene disproportionation (TDP) route have also remained economically viable

All these will mean that PX producers will maintain high operating rates at their existing plants

Spot sales have been increasing amid strong production across the region A southeast Asia-based producer is currently offering around 15000-20000 tonnesmonth of cargoes double to triple the monthly volumes it offered in the previous year

The price gap between PX and naphtha has narrowed to $315tonne in the second quarter falling from the peak of around $425tonne in end-February as the market started pricing in the expected increase in supply

In the first half of the year Asiarsquos PX production losses were estimated at 167m tonnes due to a heavy turnaround schedule

Negotiations for PX Asian Contract Price (ACP) failed for three consecutive months from April after successful monthly settlements in the first quarter ndash when producers and end-users were in agreement that supply was restricted by the turnarounds amid healthy demand in Asia

Back to Quick Navigation | 10Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian paraxylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 11Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Arbitrage economics for deep-sea materials into Asia has largely remained shut since the start of the year mainly due to a tightly supplied market in the US

However Asia does not need the supply from the US ndash which ships out 10000-15000 tonnes of supply to this region on a monthly basis ndash once the new PX units achieved smooth operations according to market participants

Toward the fourth quarter a tightening of supply may provide support to PX prices with several plants in the key China market due for turnaround

PX prices are also expected to track movement in the upstream crude and naphtha prices as well as downstream PTA futures values

AROMATICSSTYRENE MONOMER

ASIA SM UP ON LIMITED SUPPLY TIGHTNESS TO EASE IN H2By Deborah Lee

Asiarsquos styrene monomer (SM) market ndash supported in the first half of 2018 by tight supply ndash is expected to see more arbitrage cargoes from the US and Europe besides completion of turnarounds which may put pressure on prices for the rest of the year

Already April and May cargoes have been loaded from the US and have either found buyers or are likely to do so in South Korea

Furthermore Chinarsquos turnarounds will largely be over by end June with demand for imports expected to fall as domestic production returns to normal

A final anti-dumping duty (ADD) decision by China over SM imports from South Korea Taiwan and the US is also being closely watched by market participants

The China ministry of commerce is expected to announce its final results of its ADD probe in June

Prices are expected to come off in the second half of the year as a result of easing of supply and already there is a steep backwardation in the market with the JuneJuly spread at $65-85tonne

The CFR China marker started off at $1335tonne the start of the year and peaked at $156250tonne early June The SM assessment has since softened but remained above the $1400tonne level

They were largely supported in the first half because of limited arbitrage arrivals amid unplanned plant issues and scheduled turnarounds in Europe and the US while the CFR (cost amp freight) China market was hit by the ADD imposed on South Korean Taiwanese and US origin cargoes

Besides planned plant maintenance in the US and Europe unexpected issues at several plants disrupted production further

In France Totalrsquos 600000 tonneyear SM plant in Gonfreville was affected by an outage at the producerrsquos cracker in the same location early February

But the biggest impact was from CosMarrsquos unplanned shutdown caused by equipment failure due to the polymerization at its purification units

Production at its 118m tonneyear plant in Carville Louisiana resumed April 10 nearly three months after it was shut mid-January

The tight supply situation almost guaranteed that there would be no arbitrage cargoes from the US and Europe heading into Asia

Back to Quick Navigation | 12Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

But this was further secured by ADDs imposed on some of Chinarsquos key suppliers of SM as part of the Chinese authoritiesrsquo preliminary decision in February

This had greatly reduced options for the largest importer of SM cargoes in Asia

China which imported over 3m tonnes of SM in 2017 has had to turn to the Middle East southeast Asia and Japan to supplement cargoes it had received before from countries affected by ADD

Other macroeconomic factors boosted the CFR China assessment -- a stronger yuan rendered US dollar imports more competitive versus domestic cargoes for one

China also lowered VAT rates from 17 to 16 effective May 1 further bolstering interest in imported cargoes

Prices fell in end-February as some sellers offloaded cargoes due to an influx of arrivals

Concerns over end user demand emerged as the second quarter was expected to be a good demand season for SM and its derivatives but in reality buyers were slow to emerge deterred by high prices

In China in particular demand was slow to pick up after the Lunar New Year holiday because downstream producers were well stocked as operating rates were maintained during the typically low demand season in winter

This was in anticipation of rising SM prices due to the ADD probe

The additional spot cargoes in the market combined with lackluster demand pressured spot prices lower The CFR China assessment on 21 March fell to $1270tonne

As news of more turnarounds planned within China emerged domestic supply of SM was looking increasingly tight

With many plants due to be shut over April to June production was persistently lowered over the quarter and expectations of tight supply pushed the market higher again

Spot prices remained on an upswing as inventory levels slumped and prompt supply was limited

Stockpiles of SM in east China fell to a multi-year low as of 30 May at 37500 tonnes

Back to Quick Navigation | 13Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian styrene monomer (SM) markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 14Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Cargoes hitting Chinarsquos shores were not sufficient to meet the countryrsquos growing appetite for SM particularly as the Q3 manufacturing for exports season was fast approaching

Downstream producers however were struggling to pass on rising feedstock costs to their buyers

Thinning margins have led to some mulling lowering operating rates at its resin plants

Petrochemicals Analytics SolutionsOur new and enhanced petrochemical analytics and insight puts you in a stronger position so you can optimise your trades plans and strategies in order to secure a competitive advantage

ICIS is the only information provider to offer this unique combination of analytics tools as one subscription alongside pricing data and analysis

Live Supply Disruption TrackerPlant outages and maintenance for the next 12 months plus the impact of capacity changes

3 Pre-empt competition and capitalise on trades impacted by outages

3 Be aware of market shortages with a real-time view to manage risk and ensure security of stock

3 Negotiate better prices with other market players

Supply amp Demand OutlooksQuarterly global supply and demand review and outlook for key value chains and regions

3 Support your short-term strategy with upstream and downstream market sentiment and expectations for the current quarter at a regional level

3 Expand opportunities in international trade3 Understand at-a-glance the regional supply and

demand outlook across six key commodity chains

Price Drivers AnalyticsCross-commodity and cross-regional analysis of importexport parity substitution trends and feedstockdownstream spreads

3 Gain new context and negotiating tools in addition to ICIS price assessments

3 Pre-empt competition and spot opportunities with visual charts and impact commentaries

3 Reduce the time spent making manual calculations and spend more time on strategy and acting on market opportunities

4

360 view of the market l See the global market from

all anglesl Achieve better price

flexibilityl Enrich strategy plans with

validated quality datasets

Real-time information l Powered by 43000 plant

data in the ICIS Supply andDemand Database and 247global market coverage byICIS editors

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AROMATICSTOLUENE

CHINA IMPORTS TO UNDERPIN ASIA TOLUENE MARKET IN H2 2018By Trixie Yap

Asiarsquos toluene market direction in the second half of this year will be determined by the buying activity from Chinese importers which has been the key factor influencing its prices so far in 2018

FOB (free on board) Korea prices which have been fluctuating in a wider-than-expected range for the past month closed at $760-785tonne in the week ended 1 June for June and July-loading parcels

The decreases at the close on 1 June marked the end of three weeksrsquo worth of stable-to-firm price trend

This followed weaker import demand from China for July which mainly stemmed from the ending of traders replenishing shore tank inventories at eastern ports such as Jiangsu

CFR (cost amp freight) China prices were in a sideways trend for most parts of early 2018 up to March at $690-765tonne

Prices only picked up after April and hit a peak of $835tonne CFR China after fluctuating in the $700-710tonne CFR China range for a few weeks

Unlike earlier expectations when market players were hoping for Chinese import demand to peak after the post early-March Lunar New Year period CFR China buying activity remained muted and only rose after May because of improved demand from the gasoline blenders

Blending demand received a boost because of lower gasoline production from state-owned refineries amid a spate of turnarounds in China ndash mainly in the eastern regions ndash starting end April to June

The better blending economics for toluene in early May particularly for the oil majors paved the way for demand as well

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Toluene-isomer xylenes spread on an ex-tank basis was wider with toluene being much more price friendly for gasoline production as compared to isomer xylene

With the 1 May implementation of a new online tax-filing system for oil and chemical products oil majors had no choice but to buy blend stocks themselves

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instead of gasoline cargoes directly as the government was effectively making private gasoline blending activities unworkable as these blenders will not be able to potentially avoid tax payments via the paper filing system now

The presence of higher-than-expected inventories at east China main ports ndash stock levels hit a high of 76700 tonnes in early March ndash contributed further to the later timing of import demand Inventories only fell significantly after April (see chart above)

The only key issue hampering import demand from improving further was the

generally weak off taking activities from the downstream chemical sectors as isocynates benzoic acid benzyl chloride and other types of solvent products

The downstream demand was hampered because of low and unchanged operating rates because of stricter environmental regulations imposed by the government since second-half 2017

Looking ahead however the bleak demand situation for toluene from the chemical downstream sector could reverse soon starting August-September because of Wan Hua Chemicalrsquos new TDI plant start-up

The TDI plantsrsquo nameplate capacity is currently 300000 tonnesyear which could equate to around 160000 tonnesyear of toluene usage according to several market players

While this may not directly represent an increase in demand for CFR China import toluene cargoes it is likely to boost domestic toluene demand within north China particularly Shandong region and allow for potential arbitrage flows within the country

This in turn may support import parity of yuan-denominated ex-tank prices and allow for healthy distributor margins ndash if they consider to buy CFR China cargoes which is a key driver for majority of these import buyers

Market participants in China were quick to note also that supply increments ndash following at least three new plant start-ups this year ndash will outpace demand increments whichcould pose a problem in determining whichwill have a larger impact on import demandand prices

ldquoThe additional capacities may not be sold into the merchant market because there will still be captive usage since these producers are refineries with gasoline requirements and fulfilmentsrdquo one east China-based trader said

Ultimately it will be dependent on how the internal consumption for gasoline ndash of these new start-ups ndash will pan out leading up to the year-end

Changes in average operating rates of state-owned refineries due to turnarounds or outages will be another direction driver

Aside from China demand-supply fundamentals the other key price driver is the supply balance within Asia

Supply has been generally long between January and May owing to the stable operating plant rates and overall sufficient availability in southeast Asia a key net exporter within the region

Availability of northeast Asian cargoes was curtailed at some points in time ndash particularly in February and March ndashbecause of turnarounds

Back to Quick Navigation | 17Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 18Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

However supply has been steadily rising for cargoes loading in May and June ndash with the market seeing an additional of close to 30000 tonnes of product from South Korea alone ndash as some downstream plants had ongoing shutdown plans all the way till early July (see right)

All of these cargoes as expected are heading to China because of the opened arbitrage window for exports during the same time period

The increment in excess spot supply from South Korea ndash going forward ndash will be driven by downstream spreads for TDP operators since the benzene-toluene spreads have been narrowing consistently from March when the spreads hit a peak

The healthy spreads between toluene and xylenes (para and isomer) have been the only saving grace for the TDP market

ldquoBenzene demand-supply fundamentals are likely to continue remaining weak with increments in supply still expected from Middle East and Vietnam from June so that is going to still put pressure on TDP operators whether to run their unit with more toluene or less toluene [since they can adjust the amount of feedstock]rdquo one northeast Asian end-user said

ldquoBenzene demand-supply fundamentals are likely to continue remaining weak with increments in supply still expected from Middle East and Vietnam from June so that is going to still put pressure on TDP operators whether to run their unit with more toluene or less toluene [since they can adjust the amount of feedstock]rdquo one northeast Asian end-user said

There is also hope that supply will be curbed again in the autumn season ndash when several plants start their planned maintenances ndash to provide a temporary relief to the readily sufficient spot availability

Ultimately if Chinarsquos importing activity continues to be robust there will be no issues with them soaking up the excess supplies at any point of time

ldquoThe key issue is how much these buyers can procure and how long their buying activities can last but so far it has been very sporadic and capped to short time frames because of them being risk averserdquo one southeast Asian trader said

Back to Quick Navigation | 19Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

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bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian toluene markets

BASE OILSBASE OILS

ASIA MIDEAST BASE OILS FIRM IN H1 BUT SOME PULLBACK LIKELY IN H2By Jasmine Khoo amp Izham Ahmad

Asia base oils Group I SN150 and Group II 150N prices are expected to remain firm on persistently low supply whereas the heavy grades - Group I SN500 and Group II 500600N - could come under pressure on ample availability

Into the second half of the year base oils supply from Iran are expected to be stable with no known maintenance plans due over the following few months from June and that could add further pressure on prices amid the weak demand outlook

Only one Iranian refiner is due for a maintenance shutdown in the second half of the year possibly sometime in September according to market sources

In Group II like in Asia short supply of 150N and 500600N is expected to support prices in coming months but the Group II segment in the Middle East is a much smaller market for producers

Major Group II and III producers in Saudi Arabia Qatar Bahrain and UAE also continue to focus on their traditional markets outside of the Middle East due to stronger demand and higher margins

Brightstock remained largely stable for June in terms of pricing following deals done at parity with Mayrsquos levels but market players maintained a cautious stance towards brightstock pricing which would typically see downward pressure towards the end of the year

The winter season in parts of Asia would typically herald a period of slow cargo uptake for brightstock as transportation logistics get more challenging

As for Group III base oils northeast Asian-origin lots are expected to see support in spot prices from June as seen from healthy uptake among buyers amid short supply from regional suppliers

Similarly in the Middle East market Group I prices started the year on a firm note

Around mid-February SN500 prices traded up to $80750tonne FOB (free on board) Iran their highest levels since ICIS began tracking the data in November 2015

SN150 also traded their record highs about the same time hitting $72750tonne FOB Iran

These record highs were held until early May despite buyers at the time showing increasing resistance to the higher levels and the uncertainty that took hold of the market ahead of a deadline for the US to decide on whether it would remain in the Iran nuclear deal

On 8 May US president Donald Trump announced that the US will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal and re-impose sanctions on Tehran consequently driving up crude prices to new highs since late 2014

Iranrsquos base oils prices were largely stable in that week but market outlook has been clouded with uncertainties following the USrsquo decision to re-impose sanctions on the country

Group I SN500 prices were stable through the early half of May at $780-805tonne FOB Iran while Group I SN150 were holding at $710-745tonne FOB Iran since early-February according to ICIS data

Prices began to decline around mid-May when it became more apparent that the increased sanctions would cause at least some disruptions to business dealings with Iranian entities

Market players said they encountered difficulties in financial transactions with Iran and many financial institutions were reluctant to take on any dealings involving Iran-based businesses for fear of conflicting with the US sanctions

On the supply side market players in the UAE said there were sufficient cargoes built up over recent months and as such

there was less demand for further spot deals in Group I particularly with the threat of renewed sanctions

Mid-May also marked the start of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan which is a typically slow season for the Middle East

Certain manufacturing activities are reduced as factories observed shorter operating hours and as many workers took some vacation time as well

The Eid ul-Fitr long holidays followed the end of Ramadan in mid-June

Asiarsquos base oils market trends for certain widely-traded Group I grades snapped out of persistent uptrend in late April against a backdrop of increasingly squeezed buyersrsquo margins and waning demand

Steady gains in FOB Asia spot prices were recorded since September 2017 on the back of regional shortages as demand surpassed output

This was partly fuelled by natural disasters in the US when Hurricane Harvey disrupted between 20 and 25 of the countryrsquos refining capacity in August

The disruption to base oils production at some units led to increased appetite for deep-sea shipments from Asia to the US

In the current market SN500 prices registered the greatest drops among the ICIS assessed grades shedding slightly more than 12 of its spot pricing between 13 April and 25 May ICIS data showed

Market participants attributed the price dip to lackluster demand brought about by a supply overhang of domestically-produced SN400 in the local Chinese market

Competitive pricing of SN400 amid ample availability curtailed import appetite among China-based buyers for SN500 of Asian origin especially since some buyers were still holding on to sufficient stocks for the near term

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Brightstock prices also softened reflecting increasingly squeezed buyersrsquo margins following steep gains seen from 22 September 2017 to 23 March 2018 in FOB Asia export prices

Some buyers were also sitting on sufficient inventories from active procurement earlier in the year leading to waned demand

This led refiners and traders to cut offers to encourage cargo uptake for May shipment cargoes

Group II 150N and 500600N prices largely held up on the back of potential supply woes in the summer season amid scheduled shutdowns at major Asian refineries

Taiwanrsquos Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) is expected to conduct planned maintenance in July market sources said

This led market players to hold on to expectations of buoyed spot prices for Group II base oils in the near term though significant increase is not expected for certain grades such as 500600N amid ample spot availability in the region

Group III 4 and 6cst base oils largely continued their steady price uptrend reflecting short supply among key South Korean Group III suppliers

8cst base oils of northeast Asian origin amid comparatively greater availability than its lighter counterparts saw less gains in prices since the beginning of 2018

South Korean-origin Group III base oils prices were mostly buoyant despite an influx of Middle East-origin Group III base oils into the northeast Asian market since November 2017 as South Korean-origin Group III users adhered largely to using the same material due to formulation restrictions and related OEM approvals

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PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian base oils markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 21Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPURIFIED TEREPHTHALIC ACID (PTA)

ASIA PTA SUPPLY TO LENGTHEN IN H2 ON INDIA CHINA PLANT START-UPSBy Samuel Wong

Supply of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in Asia is expected to lengthen in the second half of 2018 as new capacities will start up in the major markets of India and China amid a slowdown in demand

Major plants would have resumed production after unplanned outages to ease the current global supply tightness that has been driving up Asian prices while demand typically weakens in the third quarter

Asian PTA prices may start to come under pressure as fresh supply will hit the markets when new major regional plants start production in the third quarter

ldquoMarket sentiment is currently pessimistic about the outlook however this can quickly change if we see a sudden uptick in downstream demandrdquo a China-based producer said

In India JBF Grouprsquos 125m tonneyear PTA unit in Mangalore is expected to start up in the third quarter although the schedule is still fluid according to several market participants

In China Fuhaichuang Petrochemical formerly known as Dragon Aromatics (Zhangzhou) is planning to resume operations at its complex in the third quarter of 2018 after a prolonged shutdown

Its petrochemical complex in Zhangzhou has a 45m tonneyear PTA plant comprisings three 15m tonneyear lines two of which have been in operation since end-2017 The company is likely to restart the third line once smooth operations at its upstream paraxylene (PX) unit at the site is achieved market players said

In Europe Indorama Ventures Portugal plans to start up in July an idled 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Sines Thailand-based Indorama Ventures Ltd acquired the

plant from Portuguese Artlant PTA in late 2017

All these factors should see the narrowing of the price gap between Chinarsquos import and domestic markets as early as July after widening steadily from March to May

As of 12 June the gap stood at $96tonne down from the peak of about $111tonne on 30 May

Asiarsquos PTA prices are currently steady at firm levels Regional end-users preferred to procure cargoes on a need-to basis and were not keen on building inventories

Future movement will depend on market conditions in the downstream polyester industry

The wide price gap in Chinarsquos import and domestic markets has been deterring Chinese buyers from tapping the international spot market for supplies since March while demand was healthy especially in the downstream polyethylene terephthalate (PET) markets

Tight global supply in the first half saw Asian producers shipping out cargoes to the Middle East as well as Europe which was hit by unplanned outages in Belgium and Poland in April

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In Europe BP Chemical on 15 April declared a force majeure at its Belgium PTA unit and a second force majeure on 17 May PKN Orlen on 23 April declared a force majeure at its Wloclawek PTA unit in Poland which was subsequently lifted on 2 May with spot cargoes from the plant limited until after a planned maintenance in SeptemberOctober 2018

Within Asia the southeastern region has had PTA plant outages and had to procure cargoes from the northeast in the preceding two months

Regional supply tightened further with the unexpected shutdown of Hanwha General Chemicalrsquos 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Daesan prompting a force majeure declaration on 21 May

In the first half of 2018 strong growth in demand in the downstream polyester markets in Asia particularly China supported the rally in PTA prices amid tight supply

Downstream polyester markets were enjoying positive margins keeping demand for feedstock PTA healthy

In the key China market operating rates at polyester units were higher compared with the previous year

The countryrsquos PTA production losses in January-June 2018 on the other hand were estimated at around 134m tonnes due to planned and unplanned outages

Asiarsquos PTA producers were largely enjoying healthy margins on the back of steady demand growth in the downstream polyester markets Firmer upstream energy

and feedstock PX prices have also buoyed PTA prices

In January to May 2018 Brent crude traded at $6692-7616bbl up by about 25 year

on year while PX prices were at $938-994tonne representing a 15 increase over the same period

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian purified terephthalic acid (PTA)) markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 23Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPOLYETHYLENE TEREPHTHALATE (PET)

ASIA PET TO REMAIN FIRM IN Q3 AS TIGHT SUPPLY SUPPORT PRICESBy Hazel Goh

Asian polyethylene terephthalate (PET) market is likely to remain firm in the third quarter on the back of tight supply a trend that has supported prices so far in 2018

Recently PET tight supply is a result of production cuts in Asia and Europe that have not had a clear estimated date of resuming normal operations

China Resources Packaging had cut production at its PET lines in Changzhou by 50 following notice from the government to reduce pollution in end-May It is not known for how long the production cuts will remain in place

In Europe there had been feedstock purified terephthalic acid (PTA) supply tightness leading to recent PET production cuts and force majeure by Novapet and JBF respectively

Many buyers had been purchasing on a need-to basis expecting that firm prices are unsustainable and will come down Subsequently they did not stock up cargoes ahead of the peak summer demand season for countries in the northern hemisphere

The reality turned out different and they had to accept higher prices as production cuts kept the supply tight

PET used to track feedstock price movements closely as it had been an oversupplied market and producers typically operate on thin margins

The oversupply situation changed and tightness was first felt in the third quarter of 2017 when plant closures by JBF RAK in the UAE and Belgium and by Mossi amp Ghisolfi (MampG) in the US Mexico and Brazil following financial tightness in the two PET-producing companies

Hurricane Harvey that hit the US in the third quarter led to further production cuts in the US

Back to Quick Navigation | 24Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 1

From then on supply remained tight as the plant under JBF RAK in the UAE and the former MampG plant in the US that had been acquired by Far Eastern remained shut for extended period of time even into 2018

Market players previously had concerns about where China will export its material when final anti-dumping duties (ADD) - heard to be at the same level as thepreliminary duties of 398-530 - wereimposed on its cargoes into Japan inJanuary

Japan was the top exporting destination for Chinese cargoes before the ADD following which the exports dropped drastically

While other producers such as Taiwanese southeast Asian Indian and South Korean producers sold more volumes into Japan Chinese makers sold to other markets that were relinquished by the other producers

Table 1 shows a significant difference between 2016 and 2017 in Chinarsquos export volumes to key destinations from the January-to-March period

Ranked by volume starting with largestvolume as 1

There is an ongoing anti-dumping duty (ADD) investigation by the US on PET cargoes from Brazil Pakistan Indonesia Taiwan and South Korea

The Commerce Department issued the preliminary dumping rates for Indonesia at 1316 South Korea at 881-10141 and Taiwan at 902-1189 in May Final determinations will be issued by 8 November

Even so some producers from the countries under investigation continued to receive buying enquiries from the US amid the current tight supply situation

There will be some upcoming new capacities expected in Q3 as shown in table 2 that may bring about a more balanced supply to meet the demand

The US plant acquired by Far Eastern is estimated to restart in June-July which should also ease the supply tightness

Even with the new capacities and plant restarts market participants think it is unlikely that PET market will return to the oversupply situation seen in the previous years

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian PET markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 25Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 2

Our English-language report coverage includes

Styrene MEG Propylene

BTX Methanol Base Oil

BPA PE MTBE

Phenol PP Mixed AromaticsAcetone Oxo-Alcohol

Trusted industryintelligence for Chinarsquoscommodity marketsDevelopments in Chinarsquos petrochemicals industrycontinue to affect the global marketplace It istherefore vital for domestic and internationalmarket players to keep track of changes withinthe country to know where opportunities lie

ICIS has long been recognised as a reliablesource of information our locally-based expertscompile reports and analyses in English tosupport industry participants dealing with Chinamarkets or seeking to trade or invest

Pricing informationOur pricing data provide key insights into pricetrends in China to support your short-termdecision-making negotiations and analyses

bull Import and export spot and contract pricesbull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity

and upstreamdownstream marketsbull Data on inventory levels and price marginsbull Plant and production news

Petrochemicals Analytics SolutionsProviding our customers with a 360-degree view of the Chinese market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker - real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for thenext 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics - key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock anddo wnstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlooks

Available for key chemical commodities

wwwiciscomchina

Discover how we can meet your market information needs

enquiryiciscom

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESMONOETHYLENE GLYCOL (MEG)

ASIA MEG TO SEE DEMAND TAPERING LOWER SUPPLY IN EARLY H2By Eric Su

The Asian monoethylene glycol (MEG) market could see demand slowing down from the end of June while supply will be reduced from a number of plant turnarounds

Inventories are expected to decline in June after offtake rates at Chinese main ports rose sharply in the last two weeks of May because of an uptick in demand from downstream polyester buyers

Demand for MEG is also expected to remain strong in the first half of June boosted by high polyester production rates of above 85 and modestly low inventory levels

A slowdown in demand may take place in the second half of June as the traditional manufacturing peak period nears its end in July

Meanwhile supply conditions could tighten because of the plant turnarounds in northeast Asia

However supply from the Middle East will likely resume to normal levels given that there were no further delay in shipments in May

MEG prices in Asia have registered year-on-year growth rates in the months to June this year

MEG prices have mostly hovered above $900tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China Main Port (CMP) while prices were mostly below $900tonne CFR CMP in 2017

Prices have been volatile in 2018 with major price swings seen on a near monthly basis since February

MEG prices in first quarter of 2018 continued the uptrend seen in the fourth quarter of 2017 rising to $1030tonne CFR CMP in early March from $922tonne CFR

CMP in late December as the higher-than-expected growth in downstream polyester fuelled bullish market sentiment

Polyester growth in 2017 was estimated at above 10 beating an originally bearish expectation of 2-3

A price downtrend was observed in March with the MEG weekly average price losing nearly 10 of its value to $929tonne CFR CMP by end-March

The price decline coincided with a sharp influx of imported cargoes which was likely a result of over-procurement in January

Back to Quick Navigation | 26Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

and February when prices were trending upwards

March 2018 import volumes rose to nearly 1m tonnes a record three-year high according to official China customs data

MEG prices rebounded in April rising by around 9 from end-March to $1014tonne CFR CMP by end-April ahead of the traditional peak period for the downstream polyester sector The average polyester production rate rose to above 85 during the period

MEG also achieved its to-date weekly peak of $1042tonne CFR CMP in the week ending 20 April

Supply tightness was also observed in the Chinese domestic market because of shipment delays from the Middle East and logistical issues at China main ports over the same period

The lack of availability of prompt cargoes also led to an atypical price spread between April and May delivery parcels

Normally the spread between arrived-at-port and far-term arrival cargoes is at $0-10tonne CFR CMP but this widened to $20-30tonne CFR CMP This drove concerns of sharp price adjustments in May once April deliveries were fulfilled

These concerns came true as MEG prices

began to slide in May MEG weekly prices stood at $928tonne CFR CMP in the last week of May falling from $1003tonne CFR CMP in early May

High inventory levels have also weighed on MEG prices Inventory levels were above 900000 tonnes from early May onward rising to 938000 tonnes by in late March Most market participants deemed inventory levels above 900000 tonnes to be high

The increase in inventory levels in May were largely attributed to the arrival of Middle East shipments which were previously due for arrival in April

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian MEG markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 27Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSETHYLENE

NE ASIA ETHYLENE H2 OUTLOOK HINGES ON NEW SUPPLY SM PLANTBy Yeow Pei Lin

Northeast (NE) Asiarsquos ethylene (C2) second-half 2018 outlook is uncertain as several crackers are scheduled for maintenance but such production losses could be offset by the start up of a new plant and cargoes from outside the region

More than 20 crackers in Asia are slated to undergo maintenance in 2018 with the estimated capacity losses totalling more than 185m tonnes Most of the turnarounds in the first half of the year were concentrated in Japan ndash a key exporter to China

However several more companies are to carry out turnarounds in June and the rest of the year

The impact on the regional balance will depend on the start-up progress of a new facility in South Korea and on whether the strong exports from southeast Asia and Europe in the first half of 2018 will continue

Shipments from Yeosu South Korea will start to slow down in August ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at complexes in that region

Exports will recover by December when Lotte Chemical brings on-stream an added capacity of 200000 tonnesyear at its Yeosu cracker

The facility will undergo an expansion during a turnaround from late September to October

Shipments from Ulsan another petrochemical cluster in South Korea will grow in the second half of 2018

Newcomer S-Oil is expected to begin commercial operations at its residue upgrading complex (RUC) in Onsan in the second half of June

The companyrsquos entire ethylene output of up

to around 200000 tonnesyear is intended for the merchant market as it does not have any downstream plants

Exports from southeast Asian producers will continue to be driven by the higher value from ethylene sales in the ethylene versus polyethylene (PE) trade-off

There will however be supply constraints

Four crackers in the region will undergo

maintenance and the affected producers include ExxonMobil and PTT Global Chemicals (PTTGC) that were regular exporters in the first half of 2018

Exports from Europe will likely be influenced by the performance of the PE sector

The outlook for the PE market in Europe is uncertain given the growing prospect of competitively-priced exports from the new US plants

Back to Quick Navigation | 28Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Ethylene costs in the US have been at low levels since early 2018 as production growth outpaces that for consumption

Since late 2017 about 3m tonnesyear of new ethylene capacity and about 35m tonnesyear of new PE capacity have started up in the US

The new crackers have been running well but several of the new PE plants struggled to reach full operating rates

Exports from Saudi Arabia are expected to be constrained by increased domestic consumption

Petro Rabigh announced in April that the last few plants in its Phase 2 project including a 75000 tonneyear ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) unit have started up

The companyrsquos ethylene exports could fall further in the second half of 2018 following the completion of its PE plant maintenance shutdowns earlier in the year

Chinarsquos import demand is poised for further growth when a new 260000 tonneyear styrene monomer (SM) plant starts up in the third quarter as planned

Anhui Haoyuan Chemical will be operating the unit in Fuyang Anhui on a standalone basis as its plans to build a methanol-to-olefin (MTO) plant have been put on hold amid high methanol prices

The plant will require around 78000 tonnes of ethylene annually to operate at maximum capacity

Based on the above factors it was not immediately clear if the ethylene prices in the second half will follow the volatile trend they displayed in the first five months of 2018

NE Asia spot ethylene prices were volatile from January to May as the impact of a heavy regional cracker turnaround schedule and strong Chinese demand was at times outweighed by strong exports from southeast Asia the Middle East and Europe

The market started the year at above a two and a half year high of $1415tonne CFR (cost amp freight) NE Asia in early January

Subsequent transacted prices fluctuated within a low $1200stonne to mid $1300stonne CFR NE Asia band in the five months ended 31 May

Prices in the first quarter were initially weighed down by ample supply from producers in the Middle East and Asia due to a series of PE plant shutdowns - both planned and unplanned

That was despite strong pre-Lunar New Year holiday restocking activities in China

Demand was bolstered by the start up of a 500000 tonneyear non-integrated SM plant and generally healthy downstream margins for producers outside the PE sector

End-users were also keen to build up their inventories because of the slow progress in their 2018 term contract discussions ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at facilities of key exporters in the region

In addition a major ethylene oxide (EO) maker was seeking more import cargoes following a disruption in supply from its upstream MTO unit The plant was shut twice between late November and the first half of February because of high feedstock methanol costs

The market recovered in early March in line with the start of the annual cracker turnaround season in northeast Asia where

scheduled capacity losses in 2018 will be overall higher than the previous year

That explained why the countryrsquos exports from January to April slumped by 14 year-on-year to 201274 tonnes

In late April northeast Asiarsquos spot prices fell again after a surprisingly large quantity of deep-sea spot cargoes were sold into Asia for delivery between the middle of May and the first half of June

There were at least 55000-60000 tonnes of cargoes from Europe in addition to 11000 tonnes of US supply for that delivery period Europe was in a long position because of derivative maintenance shutdowns and production problems

Continued strong exports from southeast Asia owing to downstream production issues and the weak performance of the linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) market contributed to the downbeat sentiment

The ample supply outweighed Chinarsquos robust import demand

Buying interest in China was strong for April and May arrival cargoes on the back

Back to Quick Navigation | 29Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

of healthy downstream margins for certain downstream markets such as SM EO and monoethylene glycol (MEG)

Ethylene buyers in China were also keen to book deep-sea cargoes to offset the expected regional production losses from cracker turnarounds

Prices rebounded quickly in mid-May

aided by a bullish SM market and reduced domestic supply

Some MTO operators lowered production in May as high feedstock methanol costs led to squeezed margins while a key producer in east China lowered its cracker run rates unexpectedly

Sharp increases in feedstock naphtha costs

which tracked gains on crude oil futures also helped set a floor to the earlier price declines

By early June spot ethylene prices had touched a 20-week high raising questions on whether the market will see similar price volatility in the second half of 2018

Producers will turn hawkish if the outlook for crude and naphtha markets remains upbeat

Back to Quick Navigation | 30Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSPROPYLENE

TIGHT NE ASIA PROPYLENE SUPPLY TO LIMIT H2 PRICE FLUCTUATIONSBy Joson Ng

Tight propylene (C3) supply in northeast Asia amid a heavy turnaround schedule in 2018 will continue supporting regional prices of the material into the second half

Sellers are likely to continue passing on firmer costs to buyers which are wary of October when heavy propylene production losses are expected

Buyersrsquo resistance in the key China market would keep any further increase in propylene prices in check with some downstream producers considering cutting output due to high feedstock costs

At the start of June propylene prices have weakened ending the strong general uptrend since end-March amid weakness in Chinarsquos domestic market as demand softened due to turnarounds at downstream polypropylene (PP) plants

However the downward pressure on regional prices may be temporary as overall supply in Asia is expected to be tight

In early June spot propylene prices in northeast Asia were about 9 higher from the start of 2018 according to ICIS data

The year started on a bullish note fuelled by a heavier cracker turnaround schedule compared with 2017 and higher premium levels concluded for contract cargoes

The uptrend was sustained into February due to restocking activities in various import markets in northeast Asia before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February

Before the holidays some South Korean producers were convinced the market will experience supply shortage as both GS Caltexrsquos fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity and Yeochun NCCrsquos (YNCC) cracker ndash which can produce 280000 tonnesyear of propylene ndash were due for maintenance in February through to April

But propylene prices surprisingly weakened from 9 February to end-March without demand support from Chinarsquos weak PP market which struggled through sluggish sales and high inventory after the countryrsquos week-long Lunar New Year holiday

A renewed wave of scheduled turnarounds at regional plants tightened supply and drove up propylene prices in April and May

In Taiwan Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) took its residue fluid catalytic

Back to Quick Navigation | 31Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

cracking (RFCC) unit with a 350000 tonneyear propylene capacity off stream from 1 March to mid-April while CPC Corp shut its 100000 tonneyear FCC unit on 10 April and restarted in early June

In South Korea GS Caltex also had a turnaround at its FCC unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity from 19 February to 5 April

SK Advanced shut its propane dehydrogenated (PDH) unit with 600000 tonneyear propylene capacity on 21 April to early May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian propylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 32Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

To talk to someone about price forecast reports call the numbers below or email us at salesukiciscomAsia-Pacific Europe Africa and Middle East The AmericasTel +65 6789 8828 Tel +44 20 8652 3335 Tel +1 713 525 2600 or Toll free +1 888 525 3255 (US and Canada only)

ICIS price forecast reportsSupply demand and price trends at a glance

ICIS price forecast reports provide a clear view of prices and supply and demand trends for the next 12 months Packed with vital information the report includes everything you need to assess where the market is heading and the impact or opportunity that presents for your business

To find out more or take a trial visit wwwiciscompriceforecast

Price Forecast Window

ICIS price forecasts are now available on the Dashboard channel using the Price Forecast Window which will enable users to

n Chart the price forecast against the last (rolling) twelve months of related price history

n Plot the last 12 months to view forecast progression and ICIS forecast accuracy

n Convert data into different currencies and units and download this data into Excel in order to easily enter into your own calculations

How price forecast reports can help youn Understand the marketUse ICIS price forecast reports to understand where the market is heading and identify the risks and the opportunities for your business What are the major demand developments for your product n Safeguard commercial decisionsUse market information to make better-informed business decisions relating to supply and demand Learn about changes in market capacities What factors will affect supply for you n Budgeting and planningWhether you are planning how much you will be spending in the short-to medium or even long term use the price forecast reports to help assess future prices for your product What will the price of your product be in six monthsrsquo time

Price forecast reports currently

available

Available as price forecast windows only

Polypropylene

Polyethylene

Benzene

StyrenePolystyrene

Methanol

Ethylene

Propylene

Styrene

Asia Europe US Global

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

OLEFINSBUTADIENE

ASIA BD TO FLUCTUATE IN H2 AS SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE SHIFTSBy Helen Yan

Asiarsquos butadiene (BD) spot prices for July shipments are likely to face downward pressure but any price downtrend is likely to reverse when cracker turnarounds start to kick in from September onwards

BD prices are expected to be weighed down before seeing support again in the third quarter as the supply and demand balance shifts during this period

The fourth quarter will likely see support for BD prices although the increases may be tempered by resistance from the downstream synthetic rubber (SR) makers to any significant price hikes

The busy cracker turnaround season in September-November will likely see supply tightening at the same time that demand is expected to pick up during this period

Several crackers and BD units including South Korearsquos Lotte Chemical LG Chem and Chinarsquos Shanghai Secco and Maoming Petrochemical are scheduled to shut during

the September to November time frame

In the near term BD spot prices are likely to continue to trend lower as demand wanes while supply at the same time is expected to lengthen due to an influx of deep-sea cargoes and regional cracker restarts

More than 15000 tonnes of deep-sea cargoes from EU are expected to arrive in Asia in June and July at the same time that crackers in Asia including Indiarsquos Haldia Petrochemical and Indonesiarsquos Chandra Asri resume their production following their maintenance shutdowns

On 8 June spot prices fell to $1725tonne CFR (cost amp freight) northeast (NE) Asia the second consecutive week of decline after spiralling upwards in the two months since early April

BD spot prices had increased by more than 40 since early April peaking at $1800tonne CFR NE Asia on 25 May

Strong demand from derivative acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) makers which were running their plants at optimal rates had bolstered the BD price upsurge during this period

However derivative styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) and polybutadiene rubber (PBR) producers the key consumers of BD cut their production output given the continued erosion in margins

Several major SBR and PBR producers said their margins had fallen into negative territory and retreated from the BD spot market in June

Chinese spot appetite in particular tapered off as domestic BD prices were lower compared with the US dollar-denominated import prices

In China Hangzhou Zhechen Jilin Petrochemical Zhejiang Transfar and Shen Hua Chemical were some of the SBR and PBR plants that are shut for maintenance in June and July

Several SBR and PBR plants in Taiwan and South Korea were also running at lower rates following the 40 BD price spike in the two months from early April to end-May

In South Korea major SR producer Korea Kumho Petrochemical PC was running its SBR and PBR plants at reduced rates

Back to Quick Navigation | 33Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian butadiene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 34Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Similarly Taiwanrsquos TSRC also cut the production output of its SBR and PBR plants

The outlook for the fourth quarter is expected to see a different turn of events with SBR and PBR plants resuming their production and ramping up their operating rates while supply during the last quarter is expected to tighten from the heavy cracker turnaround season

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYETHYLENE (PE)

SOUTHEAST ASIA PE MARKET FACES LONGER H2 SUPPLY WEAK DEMANDBy Felita Widjaja

Southeast Asiarsquos polyethylene (PE) market may be facing longer supply in the second half hinging on how the US-China trade spat plays out amid the regionrsquos weakening demand for imports

Global PE trade flows will be affected should China the biggest importer of spot PE cargoes in the world decide to impose retaliatory 25 tariff on US cargoes

Southeast Asia as an alternative buying region might be hard pressed to absorb additional supply from the US where massive PE capacities recently started up which were meant to cater to huge Chinese demand

Around 5m tonnes of additional US PE capacities are expected from several major projects including those in the pipeline to start up within the second half of 2018

China primarily imports PE cargoes from Asia and the Middle East while the US is its sixth leading PE supplier in 2017

ldquoEventually more substantial and regular volume of US [PE] cargoes are expected to be traded in Asia in the second half of the year as we have yet to see them in the first half of this yearrdquo said a regional trader

Any changes in trade flows would pose challenges to US suppliers in the short term as they would need to revamp their logistics and distribution channels to redirect cargoes to other markets

Suppliers from the Middle East meanwhile might take the opportunity to supply more cargoes to China and would mean fewer volumes available to the southeast Asian market

The Middle East is southeast Asiarsquos major PE supplier

Demand for PE imports in southeast Asia has been weak amid lower prices in

Back to Quick Navigation | 35Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

the domestic markets as in the case of Thailand

ldquoThai traders are not keen to import as local prices are more competitive so they do not have the margin to sell the imported cargoes in local market Only some converters who need specific cargoes continue to importrdquo said a local Thai trader

Malaysia and Indonesia with predominantly Muslim populations have seen market activity slow down since mid-May when the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan started Ramadan ends with the Eid ul-Fitr holiday on 15 June

The Indonesian government has declared a longer Eid-ul Fitr holiday this year from 11-20 June

Markets in Singapore and the Philippines will be closed for the mid-June holiday as well

With supply expected to become long some market players expect regional PE prices in July and August to ease from

June with restocking activities expected to kick in towards the end of the third quarter

In the first half of 2018 southeast Asiarsquos average prices for commodity PE were largely stable to firm owing to suppliersrsquo relatively comfortable-to-tight supply for most of the period

At the start of June high density polyethylene (HDPE) film grade prices averaged $1395tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia while linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) film were at $1210tonne CFR SE Asia and $1265tonne CFR SE Asia respectively according to ICIS data

Prices had spiked in the first quarter as suppliers were holding comfortable-to-tight inventory as several regional producers have scheduled turnarounds at their plants in March Production issues and shutdowns in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia also limited availability of imports to southeast Asia during this period

Supply for HDPE film was particularly tight as some producers from the Middle East as well as Asia switched their focus into making HDPE pipe grade amid robust demand and better netbacks

The price uptrend across most PE grades could not be sustained in the second quarter although prices remained relatively stable-to-firm

The depreciation of local currencies in southeast Asia against the US dollar in most of the second quarter was also curbing overall demand for imports A weaker currency makes US dollar-denominated imports expensive

ldquoIndonesian buyers have not been buying much cargoes as the market slowed down during Ramadan and also because of weak rupiah which led the central bank to increase interest rate to limit the depreciationrdquo said a regional producer

CHINA PE IMPORTS TO STAY STRONG AMID DOMESTIC PLANT TURNAROUNDS By Angie Li

Chinarsquos polyethylene (PE) imports are expected to remain strong for the rest of the year after posting record volumes in January to April 2018 amid scheduled turnarounds at domestic facilities

Buyers in China have been accumulating imported PE cargoes as these were priced lower compared futures prices since the start of the year

More cargoes will be available to China as new capacities in the US are expected to boost production

For the month of May the countryrsquos PE imports are projected to reach 12m tonnes higher than the monthly average in the first four months of 2018

In January to April 2018 its PE imports volumes totaled 447m tonnes up by 12 from the previous corresponding period according to industry sources

The import volumes were making up for the production losses in the domestic market due to scheduled turnarounds

On 1 June low density PE (LDPE) imports were assessed at $1155-1180tonne linear low density PE (LLDPE) stood at $1150-1170tonne while high density PE (HDPE) film products were at $1340-1400tonne according to ICIS data

The prices have increased 15-62 from end-March but the gains came in lower than market playersrsquo expectations considering the heavy production loss due to turnarounds from April

Back to Quick Navigation | 36Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

An estimated 500000 tonnes are expected to be shaved in the second quarter due to scheduled maintenance at domestic facilities according ICIS data

ldquoWe thought the hefty plant turnarounds in the second quarter should lead to a surge in PE prices but the LDPE and LLDPE prices were less than satisfactory although HDPE prices [were] highrdquo said an east China-based trader referring to both the import and domestic PE prices

Strong imports amid hedging activities bloated the total supply in China in January to April to 998m tonnes up by 8 from the previous corresponding period with supply of LDPE and LLDPE up by 14 and 8 respectively market sources said

Imports of HDPE inched up by 2 over the same period given the gradersquos comparatively higher prices compared with LLDPE and LDPE

Increased availability due to recent capacity expansions and start-ups in Asia the Middle East also fuels Chinarsquos appetite for import cargoes

In the first quarter of 2018 additional cargoes from Saudi Arabia were mostly from Sadara Chemical which started up its 750000 tonneyear swing plant and 350000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Al Jubail during late 2016 and early 2017 respectively

Cargoes of Iran origin augmented the total volume from the UAE as market players try to go around the financial sanctions on Tehran Kordestan Petrochemicalrsquos 300000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Iran came on stream in March 2017

UAErsquos Borouge has also ramped up pipe and HDPE film exports to China during the period according to a supplier in the Middle East

Meanwhile PE imports from Singapore surged 38 year on year while those from India more than doubled to 127000 tonnes according to China Customs data

The ban on waste plastics implemented in China in the year also bolstered imports of virgin PE Some waste plastics processed overseas and then re-entered the market as virgin products but these volumes were limited

Last year China has imported 194m tonnes of PE waste plastics while

volumes in 2018 will be negligible with the implemention of the ban

Chinarsquos PE production this year is expected to increase by around 7 to about 17m tonnes in 2018 with imports projected to grow by 102 to around 13m tonnes according to a source from state-owned petrochemical giant PetroChina

Domestic demand for PE on the other hand is forecast to grow by 8 this year mainly from the packaging and pipe markets

Chinarsquos ongoing campaign to switch to using gas for power generation instead of coal is expected to continue boosting demand for PE gas pipes this year

The packaging industry will also drive up PE consumption underpinned by growth in electronic commerce Chinarsquos express delivery volumes reached 137bn packages during January-April 2018 based on data from the recent China Express Industry Development Conference in May

Back to Quick Navigation | 37Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 38Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

By Jonathan Lopez

ICIS NewsThe leading news service for real-time ground breaking news and analysis on the global petrochemicals markets

The ICIS News services give you unrivalled access to the most in-depth stories impacting the petrochemicals markets influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions

Our team of global editors are reporting around the clock to bring you the latest news and analysis so that you get the full picture of market and pricing developments first providing you with invaluable foresight to take advantage of every opportunity and to stay ahead of your competitors

With ICIS News you will be the first to read

Breaking news on the chemical markets that will impact your business

News on market moves deals and announcements that will affect your organisation

Force majeures closures and developments that influence your commodity prices

Expert analysis on industry trends and hot topics ndash know whatrsquos happening and why

Searchable archive with over 14 million articles from the past 10 years

Chemical Business News Base (CBNB) is a premium resource available on ICIS News It provides you with an extensive external source of upstream and downstream petrochemical news in summarised snapshots so you can quickly and easily get the latest updates on whatrsquos important to you

CBNB offers readers

Fast and consistent coverage on news facts figures from the upstream and downstream petrochemicals industry

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User-friendly search functionality to find articles most relevant to you from around the globe

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ICIS Chemical Business digital magazine (ICB) Our global team of experts digests and summarises the key issues and their potential impact on the chemical markets offering a comprehensive overview of the key developments that matter most-along with informed opinion and in-depth analysis

ICB features include

In-depth insight into chemical price changes and their impact on the markets

Understand the detail behind the headline news stories

Find out about supply amp demand trends and the factors impacting them

Get the complete picture of the chemical markets ndash all in one e-magazine

Easy access via e-magazine and premium magazine website

Find out more wwwiciscomnews

ICIS News offers access to additional sources including the ICIS Chemical Business Magazine and Chemical Business News Base (CBNB)

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYPROPYLENE (PP)

SE ASIA PP PRICES MAY COME UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 AS SUPPLY LENGTHENSBy Leanne Tan

Southeast Asiarsquos polypropylene (PP) market may come under pressure in the second half of the year on account of lengthening regional supply and weak downstream demand

Spot prices have been on the rise for most of May buoyed by bullish sentiment in the Chinese market and firm upstream feedstock costs

Margins for PP makers have been lower on average compared with levels in the previous year

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refinery amp Petrochemicals is scheduled to start up its 400000 tonneyear PP production unit in the third quarter The project was initially scheduled to start up in the first quarter of 2018

While domestic demand will continue to outstrip local production the countryrsquos reliance on imports may be diminished when the new plant starts up

Converters in the country have been opting to keep inventories lean in the short term amid expectations that prices may eventually weaken when more domestic supply becomes available

ldquoBuyers donrsquot want to buy too much import cargoes now not just because prices are high but also because there will be more locally-produced materials very soonrdquo a Vietnamese trader said

In Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan is expected to start commercial production at its expanded PP facility in Pasir Gudang in June or July The plantrsquos capacity will be raised by 200000 tonnesyear from 400000 tonnesyear

Import availabilities from South Korea are expected to lengthen in the medium-to-long term with S-Oil expected to complete an olefin downstream complex (ODC) at its Onsan refinery in Ulsan which will include a

405000 tonneyear PP capacity

On the demand front weakness is likely to persist in the second half with converters and end-users likely to continue buying spot cargoes on a hand-to-mouth basis

Indonesiarsquos demand in particular has been below expectations since the start of 2018 and this is likely to continue in the second half of the year according to market players

Back to Quick Navigation | 39Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Some players said import demand for dutiable cargoes may increase in the second half of the year as this is typically when the government issues duty exemption facilities

The duty exemption facilities are issued on a yearly basis which enable converters to import some PP volumes without extra cost

In Malaysia the removal of the 6 goods and services tax (GST) so far has had no immediate impact on the PP market although there are some expectations the move could potentially boost demand in the consumer market further down the road

In Vietnam demand for PP flat yarn has entered a seasonal lull from May to early July and will not pick up until August when the summer harvest begins

PP is widely used in the manufacture of woven sacks (for rice sacks) flexible packaging carpets household appliances and automotive parts

Spot PP prices in southeast Asia have been an uptrend for most of the first half

The PP market begun the year on a bullish note with spot prices surging by almost 10 over the course of two months all-origins PP flat yarn prices peaked at $1295tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia on 2 March

Healthy demand in China helped to provide support to spot prices in southeast Asia in the first quarter with a tight global spot supply leading to further price escalations

Some suppliers pulled back from the southeast Asian spot market to capitalise on better netbacks in other countries including Japan and Pakistan leading to further curtailed spot availability in southeast Asia

The market rally started to lose steam in early March amid subdued demand and a build-up of domestic inventories in China after the Lunar New Year holidays

The bearish sentiment soon spilled over into southeast Asia with Chinese suppliers pushing some volumes into southeast Asia amid an open arbitrage window

Vietnam remains the market of choice for Chinese exporters and PP import prices in the country plummeted as the result of the lengthened spot availability

However the bearish run was short-lived and prices soon bottomed out in early April

Bullish momentum in the upstream crude and naphtha markets propelled spot prices of polymers higher

Despite lacklustre downstream demand price hikes in April and May were commonplace as producers sought higher asking prices in view of narrower margins

TIGHT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT CHINA PP MARKET DESPITE WEAK DEMANDBy Dora Xue

Tight supply would buoy up Chinarsquos polypropylene (PP) prices in the near term despite weak downstream demand

The market is expecting heavy production losses following recent unexpected outages at five domestic facilities from May and scheduled turnarounds at other plants

In the week ended on 1 June domestic prices for PP flat yarn in east China were assessed at Chinese yuan (CNY) 9075tonne after a steady increase from early April according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos import prices for the same material stood at $1245tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China largely tracking movement in the domestic market over the past two months according to ICIS data

The strong PP prices have also started to deter buyers from purchasing more spot cargoes

ldquoPP prices are too high We donrsquot want to store too much in our warehouserdquo a buyer said

Downstream demand typically goes on a lull in June and July but any downward pressure on prices will be negated by a further tightening of supply as major plants will be taken off line for maintenance

ldquoWhen the maintenance season finishes in late June [PP] prices may start to go downrdquo a trader said

Demand is considered weakest at Qingdao in the eastern Shandong province due to government-mandated production cuts and logistics restrictions ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (SCO Summit) on 9-10 June

As of 1 June the combined polyolefin inventories of Chinese petrochemical majors Sinopec and PetroChina have declined back to normal levels of 700000 tonnes from a high of 1m tonnes in early March market sources said

Import supply to China may not improve in the short term as suppliers still deem other

Back to Quick Navigation | 40Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

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The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 4: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

Back to Quick Navigation | 04Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

weakening in the first three months of the year according to ICIS data

Demand was dented in February by the Lunar New Year holidays across most of northeast and southeast Asia with the Chinese markets closed for a full week

In mid-March the arbitrage window opened for one to two weeks allowing cargoes from China to flow into other parts of Asia including India where prices were higher due to tight supply

AROMATICSBENZENE

ASIA BENZENE DEMAND MAY IMPROVE SUPPLY TO STAY LONG INTO H2By Clive Ong

Asiarsquos benzene demand may improve in July-August with the expected restart of downstream plants from turnarounds with supply to be curtailed by scheduled shutdowns of two regional facilities

But the high inventories in the key China market as well as along the supply chain in Asia will require time to whittle down which will hinge on the strength of demand across Asia in the third quarter

Strong run rates at benzene units in Asia amid turnarounds at downstream styrene monomer (SM) phenol and methyl diphenyl di-isocyanate (MDI) plants caused the build-up in stocks across the region in the first half of this year

Inventories in the key China market piled up above 230000 tonnes in May this year from around 150000 tonnes in December 2017

ldquoMost downstream turnarounds will complete in May and June hence benzene consumption will likely increase from the third quarterrdquo a Singapore-based trader said

Availability of benzene will also be curtailed as SK Global and Ulsan Aromatics have scheduled maintenance at their plants in the second half of MayJune

New supplies could also hit Asia in the third quarter with the start-up Petro Rabighrsquos new 400000 tonneyear benzene facility in the second quarter although operations at this plant remains erratic

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refineryrsquos 250000 tonneyear plant is expected to have benzene cargoes available in July

ldquoDemand for benzene in Asia and the US in the third quarter will play an important role in reducing the supply in the regionrdquo said another trader in Singapore

Back to Quick Navigation | 05Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The spot east-west arbitrage window has not stayed open throughout the first half of 2018 hampering shipping of cargoes to the US South Korea and Japan are key exporters of benzene to the US

ldquoThe arbitrage window was largely open in April but became not viable in Mayrdquo said a South Korea-based producer

Benzene is a base chemical used to make other chemicals such as SM phenol and caprolactam

In the second quarter suppliers in the region were grappling with excess inventories and a lack of outlets for their cargoes

Most key buyers in China Taiwan and southeast Asia have sufficient supplies with little appetite for spot cargoes Lackluster demand caused the CFR (cost amp freight) China prices to fall below FOB (free on board) Korea prices according to ICIS data

Premium for spot parcels into Taiwan (CFR) also declined to the low single digits over FOB Korea in the first half of May as buyers had little spot interest

The situation was just as dismal in southeast Asia where FOB SE Asia prices traded at a discount of $35tonne to FOB Korea at one point in the second half of April

In India FOB India trades were at a discount of more than $50tonne to FOB Korea as demand waned

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian benzene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 06Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

AROMATICSXYLENES

ASIA MX LIKELY TO BE UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 2018 ON WEAK DEMANDBy Deborah Lee

Asian mixed xylenes are likely to face headwinds in H2 2018 on weaker demand from the gasoline blending sector as well as increasing length in downstream markets

Demand for xylenes as a gasoline blending component in China has softened due to lower crude oil prices

Brent futures have come off from a recent peak of over $80bbl to hover at around $75-7750bbl range in June breaking an uptrend seen earlier in the year

Prices of octane boosters typically rise when crude is on an upswing as gasoline margins are expected to increase

Adding to the bleak outlook for gasoline blending materials stockpiles of blending gasoline within China are plentiful sources said

The isomer-grade xylene (IX) cargoes are mainly used as a feedstock for downstream paraxylene (PX) but upcoming capacity will keep a lid on spot IX prices

The new PX production facilities are largely integrated and do not require additional procurement of IX

Already the spread between PX and IX has narrowed from $180-190tonne to $140-150tonne with $120-140tonne being the breakeven point for producers

Earlier in the first half of 2018 strong China demand and firm crude had pushed mixed xylene prices up

Fundamentally demand from China pushed prices higher as the countryrsquos imports of IX had been persistently higher since the end of 2017

Demand for IX as a gasoline blending component was one major factor for the increase in appetite for the material while

another was that an integrated plant in China was purchasing spot IX in the market as a feedstock for its PX plant due to issues with its own IX cargoes

Margins for PX had remained at healthy levels despite the strength in the IX market keeping buying interest in IX as a feedstock healthy

Concerns remained over Chinarsquos new tax policy aimed to reduce tax evasion for gasoline blenders which was originally planned to begin 1 March but the impact was tempered by the clear uptrend in crude futures as well as a strong Chinese yuan

Strength in the yuan helped boost demand for imports as US dollar cargoes were more competitive as a result

Buyers at the same time sought IX cargoes over solvent-grade xylene (SX) on concerns that Chinese authorities would implement an additional consumption tax on mixed aromatics which shares the same HS code as SX There has yet to be an official announcement on the additional consumption tax

Further exacerbating the situation was tight supply with a Japanese producer was scheduled to be shut from June to August for maintenance greatly reducing supply of IX in the region

But the spike in spot prices sparked concerns that demand was unsustainable at that point -- gasoline blending margins were unappealing and stockpiles of blended gasoline in China were high

In May the sharp increase in IX prices eroded PX margins as well adding to concerns that buying interest was not sufficient to keep the market discussions at such high levels

Prices slipped after peaking at $867tonne on 10 May

This was offset when Chinarsquos Maoming Petrochemical successfully started up and achieved on-spec cargoes at its phase II aromatics unit in Guangdong on 20 May The plant is able is produce 400000 tonnesyear of IX

With the new plant adding to domestic supply in China the prospect of import demand was looking dim

Back to Quick Navigation | 07Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Domestic prices of IX in east China were now cheaper than imported prices the CFR northeast Asia price now commanding a small premium to the import parity of local spot discussions

With gasoline blending margins down and ample cheaper substitutes available demand for SX has also taken a hit

But supply remained tight for SX in China with buying interest strong in recent weeks although buyers have lowered bids in line with the fall in the domestic market

Inventory levels have recovered from just 900 tonnes in the middle of May and continue to hover around 5000 tonnes In 2017 weekly SX stockpiles in east China averaged 17172 tonnes

The supply situation was unlikely to ease with production of SX in the region limited due to increasing reliance on lighter feeds such as LPG

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian mixed xylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 08Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Pricing IntelligenceAccess independent price assessments that meet IOSCOrsquos PRA Principles and are widely trusted and used as benchmarks in the industry ICIS coverage is unrivalled with pricing data and information for over 180 commodities across all key regions Make fast and confident decisions and determine the best time to buy or sell with access to l Spot and contract price assessments including personalised alerts to notify you of changes l In-depth analysis and price history to help you track and understand price drivers and trends l Easy access to information with multiple delivery options

Analytics SolutionsICIS offers a unique combination of analytics tools designed to help you navigate and optimise opportunities in an ever-changing market making complex analytics simple for you Our solutions help you react quicker to market developments in a demand-led price-sensitive global marketplace enabling you to l Spot opportunities and minimise risk l Shape future strategy l Maintain a competitive advantage l Supplement your in-house analytics

Specialist ServicesThe global team of ICIS experts brings extensive knowledge of industry sectors through

Expand your knowledge to navigate complex markets more confidently

Get the latest insights into current issues and trends from a hand-picked selection of experts

Get tailored advice and guidance to address your companyrsquos key challenges

Industry NewsOur extensive global network of local experts report breaking news stories that impact chemical markets influence commodity prices and affect your daily business decisions Alerts and our one-stop platform keep you fully informed and support your planning with access to l Real-time news round-the-clock l Analysis and likely market impact l Production news and force majeures

Supply amp Demand DatabaseReceive an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical supply chain for over 100 petrochemical commodities Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacity production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040 ndash providing you with a long-term view of the rapidly changing petrochemical market The database enables you to l Determine the local or regional scenario in a global context to support your planning l Identify evaluate and optimise opportunities l Validate commercial and growth strategies l Identify and manage financial or investment risks

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Critical market data tools and expertise

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AROMATICSPARAXYLENE

ASIA PX FACES DOWNWARD PRESSURE AS SUPPLY LENGTHENS INTO H2By Samuel Wong

Asiarsquos paraxylene (PX) prices are likely to face downward pressure going into the second half of 2018 due to new capacities coming on stream with no additional downstream units to absorb the supply

A total of 205myear of new PX capacities will be added in the second half including PetroRabighrsquos 135m tonneyear unit in Saudi Arabia and Nghi Son Refinery and Petrochemicalrsquos 700000 tonneyear unit in Vietnam

Asiarsquos PX intermonth spread is currently at a backwardation of $3-4tonne down from $12-15tonne in the first quarter as market participants were gradually pricing in the additional supply PX supply

There are expectations that the market will flip into a contango once smooth operations are achieved at the new PX units

Among new PX capacities PetroRabighrsquos new PX unit is expected to achieve full operations from the third-quarter onward after suffering some technical hiccups in the second quarter

Nghi Son on the other hand is expected to start exporting cargoes from its new PX unit from the second-half of July according to market participants

Asia will be in oversupply of PX as the total capacity increase would require 31m tonnesyear of downstream purified terephthalic acid (PTA) capacities but no firm PTA start-ups are on tap in the next six months

Moreover Chinarsquos Fuhaichuang Petrochemical formerly Dragon Aromatics (Zhangzhou) is planning to resume operations at its idled complex in the third quarter this year after more than three years of shutdown

Its Zhangzhou complex consists of a 16m tonneyear PX plant and a 45m tonneyear downstream PTA plant which constitutes three 15m tonneyear lines two of which have resumed operations since late 2017

According to market participants the company is likely to restart the third PTA line once smooth operations at its PX unit is achieved

In India JBF Grouprsquos 125m tonneyear PTA unit is supposed to begin production in the third quarter of 2018 but the schedule is still fluid according to market players

The company has recently entered into a deal with existing investor KRR for the private equity firm to acquire a majority stake in certain company assets as the company enters into discussions to restructure its debt on 18 May

In Europe Indorama Ventures plans to start up an idled Portugal-based 700000 tonneyear PTA unit which it recently acquired in July The plant formerly known as Artlant PTA originally came on stream in 2012 but closed in 2014 for financial reasons and bar a brief period in operation was subsequently idled

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Thailandrsquos Indorama Ventures acquired Atlant PTA in the fourth quarter of 2017

Asian PX prices are currently above those of main feedstock naphtha by more than the breakeven level of $250tonne while PX production via feedstock isomer-xylene through the parex process and feedstock toluene through the toluene disproportionation (TDP) route have also remained economically viable

All these will mean that PX producers will maintain high operating rates at their existing plants

Spot sales have been increasing amid strong production across the region A southeast Asia-based producer is currently offering around 15000-20000 tonnesmonth of cargoes double to triple the monthly volumes it offered in the previous year

The price gap between PX and naphtha has narrowed to $315tonne in the second quarter falling from the peak of around $425tonne in end-February as the market started pricing in the expected increase in supply

In the first half of the year Asiarsquos PX production losses were estimated at 167m tonnes due to a heavy turnaround schedule

Negotiations for PX Asian Contract Price (ACP) failed for three consecutive months from April after successful monthly settlements in the first quarter ndash when producers and end-users were in agreement that supply was restricted by the turnarounds amid healthy demand in Asia

Back to Quick Navigation | 10Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian paraxylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 11Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Arbitrage economics for deep-sea materials into Asia has largely remained shut since the start of the year mainly due to a tightly supplied market in the US

However Asia does not need the supply from the US ndash which ships out 10000-15000 tonnes of supply to this region on a monthly basis ndash once the new PX units achieved smooth operations according to market participants

Toward the fourth quarter a tightening of supply may provide support to PX prices with several plants in the key China market due for turnaround

PX prices are also expected to track movement in the upstream crude and naphtha prices as well as downstream PTA futures values

AROMATICSSTYRENE MONOMER

ASIA SM UP ON LIMITED SUPPLY TIGHTNESS TO EASE IN H2By Deborah Lee

Asiarsquos styrene monomer (SM) market ndash supported in the first half of 2018 by tight supply ndash is expected to see more arbitrage cargoes from the US and Europe besides completion of turnarounds which may put pressure on prices for the rest of the year

Already April and May cargoes have been loaded from the US and have either found buyers or are likely to do so in South Korea

Furthermore Chinarsquos turnarounds will largely be over by end June with demand for imports expected to fall as domestic production returns to normal

A final anti-dumping duty (ADD) decision by China over SM imports from South Korea Taiwan and the US is also being closely watched by market participants

The China ministry of commerce is expected to announce its final results of its ADD probe in June

Prices are expected to come off in the second half of the year as a result of easing of supply and already there is a steep backwardation in the market with the JuneJuly spread at $65-85tonne

The CFR China marker started off at $1335tonne the start of the year and peaked at $156250tonne early June The SM assessment has since softened but remained above the $1400tonne level

They were largely supported in the first half because of limited arbitrage arrivals amid unplanned plant issues and scheduled turnarounds in Europe and the US while the CFR (cost amp freight) China market was hit by the ADD imposed on South Korean Taiwanese and US origin cargoes

Besides planned plant maintenance in the US and Europe unexpected issues at several plants disrupted production further

In France Totalrsquos 600000 tonneyear SM plant in Gonfreville was affected by an outage at the producerrsquos cracker in the same location early February

But the biggest impact was from CosMarrsquos unplanned shutdown caused by equipment failure due to the polymerization at its purification units

Production at its 118m tonneyear plant in Carville Louisiana resumed April 10 nearly three months after it was shut mid-January

The tight supply situation almost guaranteed that there would be no arbitrage cargoes from the US and Europe heading into Asia

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But this was further secured by ADDs imposed on some of Chinarsquos key suppliers of SM as part of the Chinese authoritiesrsquo preliminary decision in February

This had greatly reduced options for the largest importer of SM cargoes in Asia

China which imported over 3m tonnes of SM in 2017 has had to turn to the Middle East southeast Asia and Japan to supplement cargoes it had received before from countries affected by ADD

Other macroeconomic factors boosted the CFR China assessment -- a stronger yuan rendered US dollar imports more competitive versus domestic cargoes for one

China also lowered VAT rates from 17 to 16 effective May 1 further bolstering interest in imported cargoes

Prices fell in end-February as some sellers offloaded cargoes due to an influx of arrivals

Concerns over end user demand emerged as the second quarter was expected to be a good demand season for SM and its derivatives but in reality buyers were slow to emerge deterred by high prices

In China in particular demand was slow to pick up after the Lunar New Year holiday because downstream producers were well stocked as operating rates were maintained during the typically low demand season in winter

This was in anticipation of rising SM prices due to the ADD probe

The additional spot cargoes in the market combined with lackluster demand pressured spot prices lower The CFR China assessment on 21 March fell to $1270tonne

As news of more turnarounds planned within China emerged domestic supply of SM was looking increasingly tight

With many plants due to be shut over April to June production was persistently lowered over the quarter and expectations of tight supply pushed the market higher again

Spot prices remained on an upswing as inventory levels slumped and prompt supply was limited

Stockpiles of SM in east China fell to a multi-year low as of 30 May at 37500 tonnes

Back to Quick Navigation | 13Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian styrene monomer (SM) markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 14Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Cargoes hitting Chinarsquos shores were not sufficient to meet the countryrsquos growing appetite for SM particularly as the Q3 manufacturing for exports season was fast approaching

Downstream producers however were struggling to pass on rising feedstock costs to their buyers

Thinning margins have led to some mulling lowering operating rates at its resin plants

Petrochemicals Analytics SolutionsOur new and enhanced petrochemical analytics and insight puts you in a stronger position so you can optimise your trades plans and strategies in order to secure a competitive advantage

ICIS is the only information provider to offer this unique combination of analytics tools as one subscription alongside pricing data and analysis

Live Supply Disruption TrackerPlant outages and maintenance for the next 12 months plus the impact of capacity changes

3 Pre-empt competition and capitalise on trades impacted by outages

3 Be aware of market shortages with a real-time view to manage risk and ensure security of stock

3 Negotiate better prices with other market players

Supply amp Demand OutlooksQuarterly global supply and demand review and outlook for key value chains and regions

3 Support your short-term strategy with upstream and downstream market sentiment and expectations for the current quarter at a regional level

3 Expand opportunities in international trade3 Understand at-a-glance the regional supply and

demand outlook across six key commodity chains

Price Drivers AnalyticsCross-commodity and cross-regional analysis of importexport parity substitution trends and feedstockdownstream spreads

3 Gain new context and negotiating tools in addition to ICIS price assessments

3 Pre-empt competition and spot opportunities with visual charts and impact commentaries

3 Reduce the time spent making manual calculations and spend more time on strategy and acting on market opportunities

4

360 view of the market l See the global market from

all anglesl Achieve better price

flexibilityl Enrich strategy plans with

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Real-time information l Powered by 43000 plant

data in the ICIS Supply andDemand Database and 247global market coverage byICIS editors

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Complex analytics made simple l Real-time visualisation with

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AROMATICSTOLUENE

CHINA IMPORTS TO UNDERPIN ASIA TOLUENE MARKET IN H2 2018By Trixie Yap

Asiarsquos toluene market direction in the second half of this year will be determined by the buying activity from Chinese importers which has been the key factor influencing its prices so far in 2018

FOB (free on board) Korea prices which have been fluctuating in a wider-than-expected range for the past month closed at $760-785tonne in the week ended 1 June for June and July-loading parcels

The decreases at the close on 1 June marked the end of three weeksrsquo worth of stable-to-firm price trend

This followed weaker import demand from China for July which mainly stemmed from the ending of traders replenishing shore tank inventories at eastern ports such as Jiangsu

CFR (cost amp freight) China prices were in a sideways trend for most parts of early 2018 up to March at $690-765tonne

Prices only picked up after April and hit a peak of $835tonne CFR China after fluctuating in the $700-710tonne CFR China range for a few weeks

Unlike earlier expectations when market players were hoping for Chinese import demand to peak after the post early-March Lunar New Year period CFR China buying activity remained muted and only rose after May because of improved demand from the gasoline blenders

Blending demand received a boost because of lower gasoline production from state-owned refineries amid a spate of turnarounds in China ndash mainly in the eastern regions ndash starting end April to June

The better blending economics for toluene in early May particularly for the oil majors paved the way for demand as well

Back to Quick Navigation | 15Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Toluene-isomer xylenes spread on an ex-tank basis was wider with toluene being much more price friendly for gasoline production as compared to isomer xylene

With the 1 May implementation of a new online tax-filing system for oil and chemical products oil majors had no choice but to buy blend stocks themselves

Back to Quick Navigation | 16Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

instead of gasoline cargoes directly as the government was effectively making private gasoline blending activities unworkable as these blenders will not be able to potentially avoid tax payments via the paper filing system now

The presence of higher-than-expected inventories at east China main ports ndash stock levels hit a high of 76700 tonnes in early March ndash contributed further to the later timing of import demand Inventories only fell significantly after April (see chart above)

The only key issue hampering import demand from improving further was the

generally weak off taking activities from the downstream chemical sectors as isocynates benzoic acid benzyl chloride and other types of solvent products

The downstream demand was hampered because of low and unchanged operating rates because of stricter environmental regulations imposed by the government since second-half 2017

Looking ahead however the bleak demand situation for toluene from the chemical downstream sector could reverse soon starting August-September because of Wan Hua Chemicalrsquos new TDI plant start-up

The TDI plantsrsquo nameplate capacity is currently 300000 tonnesyear which could equate to around 160000 tonnesyear of toluene usage according to several market players

While this may not directly represent an increase in demand for CFR China import toluene cargoes it is likely to boost domestic toluene demand within north China particularly Shandong region and allow for potential arbitrage flows within the country

This in turn may support import parity of yuan-denominated ex-tank prices and allow for healthy distributor margins ndash if they consider to buy CFR China cargoes which is a key driver for majority of these import buyers

Market participants in China were quick to note also that supply increments ndash following at least three new plant start-ups this year ndash will outpace demand increments whichcould pose a problem in determining whichwill have a larger impact on import demandand prices

ldquoThe additional capacities may not be sold into the merchant market because there will still be captive usage since these producers are refineries with gasoline requirements and fulfilmentsrdquo one east China-based trader said

Ultimately it will be dependent on how the internal consumption for gasoline ndash of these new start-ups ndash will pan out leading up to the year-end

Changes in average operating rates of state-owned refineries due to turnarounds or outages will be another direction driver

Aside from China demand-supply fundamentals the other key price driver is the supply balance within Asia

Supply has been generally long between January and May owing to the stable operating plant rates and overall sufficient availability in southeast Asia a key net exporter within the region

Availability of northeast Asian cargoes was curtailed at some points in time ndash particularly in February and March ndashbecause of turnarounds

Back to Quick Navigation | 17Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 18Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

However supply has been steadily rising for cargoes loading in May and June ndash with the market seeing an additional of close to 30000 tonnes of product from South Korea alone ndash as some downstream plants had ongoing shutdown plans all the way till early July (see right)

All of these cargoes as expected are heading to China because of the opened arbitrage window for exports during the same time period

The increment in excess spot supply from South Korea ndash going forward ndash will be driven by downstream spreads for TDP operators since the benzene-toluene spreads have been narrowing consistently from March when the spreads hit a peak

The healthy spreads between toluene and xylenes (para and isomer) have been the only saving grace for the TDP market

ldquoBenzene demand-supply fundamentals are likely to continue remaining weak with increments in supply still expected from Middle East and Vietnam from June so that is going to still put pressure on TDP operators whether to run their unit with more toluene or less toluene [since they can adjust the amount of feedstock]rdquo one northeast Asian end-user said

ldquoBenzene demand-supply fundamentals are likely to continue remaining weak with increments in supply still expected from Middle East and Vietnam from June so that is going to still put pressure on TDP operators whether to run their unit with more toluene or less toluene [since they can adjust the amount of feedstock]rdquo one northeast Asian end-user said

There is also hope that supply will be curbed again in the autumn season ndash when several plants start their planned maintenances ndash to provide a temporary relief to the readily sufficient spot availability

Ultimately if Chinarsquos importing activity continues to be robust there will be no issues with them soaking up the excess supplies at any point of time

ldquoThe key issue is how much these buyers can procure and how long their buying activities can last but so far it has been very sporadic and capped to short time frames because of them being risk averserdquo one southeast Asian trader said

Back to Quick Navigation | 19Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian toluene markets

BASE OILSBASE OILS

ASIA MIDEAST BASE OILS FIRM IN H1 BUT SOME PULLBACK LIKELY IN H2By Jasmine Khoo amp Izham Ahmad

Asia base oils Group I SN150 and Group II 150N prices are expected to remain firm on persistently low supply whereas the heavy grades - Group I SN500 and Group II 500600N - could come under pressure on ample availability

Into the second half of the year base oils supply from Iran are expected to be stable with no known maintenance plans due over the following few months from June and that could add further pressure on prices amid the weak demand outlook

Only one Iranian refiner is due for a maintenance shutdown in the second half of the year possibly sometime in September according to market sources

In Group II like in Asia short supply of 150N and 500600N is expected to support prices in coming months but the Group II segment in the Middle East is a much smaller market for producers

Major Group II and III producers in Saudi Arabia Qatar Bahrain and UAE also continue to focus on their traditional markets outside of the Middle East due to stronger demand and higher margins

Brightstock remained largely stable for June in terms of pricing following deals done at parity with Mayrsquos levels but market players maintained a cautious stance towards brightstock pricing which would typically see downward pressure towards the end of the year

The winter season in parts of Asia would typically herald a period of slow cargo uptake for brightstock as transportation logistics get more challenging

As for Group III base oils northeast Asian-origin lots are expected to see support in spot prices from June as seen from healthy uptake among buyers amid short supply from regional suppliers

Similarly in the Middle East market Group I prices started the year on a firm note

Around mid-February SN500 prices traded up to $80750tonne FOB (free on board) Iran their highest levels since ICIS began tracking the data in November 2015

SN150 also traded their record highs about the same time hitting $72750tonne FOB Iran

These record highs were held until early May despite buyers at the time showing increasing resistance to the higher levels and the uncertainty that took hold of the market ahead of a deadline for the US to decide on whether it would remain in the Iran nuclear deal

On 8 May US president Donald Trump announced that the US will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal and re-impose sanctions on Tehran consequently driving up crude prices to new highs since late 2014

Iranrsquos base oils prices were largely stable in that week but market outlook has been clouded with uncertainties following the USrsquo decision to re-impose sanctions on the country

Group I SN500 prices were stable through the early half of May at $780-805tonne FOB Iran while Group I SN150 were holding at $710-745tonne FOB Iran since early-February according to ICIS data

Prices began to decline around mid-May when it became more apparent that the increased sanctions would cause at least some disruptions to business dealings with Iranian entities

Market players said they encountered difficulties in financial transactions with Iran and many financial institutions were reluctant to take on any dealings involving Iran-based businesses for fear of conflicting with the US sanctions

On the supply side market players in the UAE said there were sufficient cargoes built up over recent months and as such

there was less demand for further spot deals in Group I particularly with the threat of renewed sanctions

Mid-May also marked the start of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan which is a typically slow season for the Middle East

Certain manufacturing activities are reduced as factories observed shorter operating hours and as many workers took some vacation time as well

The Eid ul-Fitr long holidays followed the end of Ramadan in mid-June

Asiarsquos base oils market trends for certain widely-traded Group I grades snapped out of persistent uptrend in late April against a backdrop of increasingly squeezed buyersrsquo margins and waning demand

Steady gains in FOB Asia spot prices were recorded since September 2017 on the back of regional shortages as demand surpassed output

This was partly fuelled by natural disasters in the US when Hurricane Harvey disrupted between 20 and 25 of the countryrsquos refining capacity in August

The disruption to base oils production at some units led to increased appetite for deep-sea shipments from Asia to the US

In the current market SN500 prices registered the greatest drops among the ICIS assessed grades shedding slightly more than 12 of its spot pricing between 13 April and 25 May ICIS data showed

Market participants attributed the price dip to lackluster demand brought about by a supply overhang of domestically-produced SN400 in the local Chinese market

Competitive pricing of SN400 amid ample availability curtailed import appetite among China-based buyers for SN500 of Asian origin especially since some buyers were still holding on to sufficient stocks for the near term

Back to Quick Navigation | 20Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Brightstock prices also softened reflecting increasingly squeezed buyersrsquo margins following steep gains seen from 22 September 2017 to 23 March 2018 in FOB Asia export prices

Some buyers were also sitting on sufficient inventories from active procurement earlier in the year leading to waned demand

This led refiners and traders to cut offers to encourage cargo uptake for May shipment cargoes

Group II 150N and 500600N prices largely held up on the back of potential supply woes in the summer season amid scheduled shutdowns at major Asian refineries

Taiwanrsquos Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) is expected to conduct planned maintenance in July market sources said

This led market players to hold on to expectations of buoyed spot prices for Group II base oils in the near term though significant increase is not expected for certain grades such as 500600N amid ample spot availability in the region

Group III 4 and 6cst base oils largely continued their steady price uptrend reflecting short supply among key South Korean Group III suppliers

8cst base oils of northeast Asian origin amid comparatively greater availability than its lighter counterparts saw less gains in prices since the beginning of 2018

South Korean-origin Group III base oils prices were mostly buoyant despite an influx of Middle East-origin Group III base oils into the northeast Asian market since November 2017 as South Korean-origin Group III users adhered largely to using the same material due to formulation restrictions and related OEM approvals

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian base oils markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 21Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPURIFIED TEREPHTHALIC ACID (PTA)

ASIA PTA SUPPLY TO LENGTHEN IN H2 ON INDIA CHINA PLANT START-UPSBy Samuel Wong

Supply of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in Asia is expected to lengthen in the second half of 2018 as new capacities will start up in the major markets of India and China amid a slowdown in demand

Major plants would have resumed production after unplanned outages to ease the current global supply tightness that has been driving up Asian prices while demand typically weakens in the third quarter

Asian PTA prices may start to come under pressure as fresh supply will hit the markets when new major regional plants start production in the third quarter

ldquoMarket sentiment is currently pessimistic about the outlook however this can quickly change if we see a sudden uptick in downstream demandrdquo a China-based producer said

In India JBF Grouprsquos 125m tonneyear PTA unit in Mangalore is expected to start up in the third quarter although the schedule is still fluid according to several market participants

In China Fuhaichuang Petrochemical formerly known as Dragon Aromatics (Zhangzhou) is planning to resume operations at its complex in the third quarter of 2018 after a prolonged shutdown

Its petrochemical complex in Zhangzhou has a 45m tonneyear PTA plant comprisings three 15m tonneyear lines two of which have been in operation since end-2017 The company is likely to restart the third line once smooth operations at its upstream paraxylene (PX) unit at the site is achieved market players said

In Europe Indorama Ventures Portugal plans to start up in July an idled 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Sines Thailand-based Indorama Ventures Ltd acquired the

plant from Portuguese Artlant PTA in late 2017

All these factors should see the narrowing of the price gap between Chinarsquos import and domestic markets as early as July after widening steadily from March to May

As of 12 June the gap stood at $96tonne down from the peak of about $111tonne on 30 May

Asiarsquos PTA prices are currently steady at firm levels Regional end-users preferred to procure cargoes on a need-to basis and were not keen on building inventories

Future movement will depend on market conditions in the downstream polyester industry

The wide price gap in Chinarsquos import and domestic markets has been deterring Chinese buyers from tapping the international spot market for supplies since March while demand was healthy especially in the downstream polyethylene terephthalate (PET) markets

Tight global supply in the first half saw Asian producers shipping out cargoes to the Middle East as well as Europe which was hit by unplanned outages in Belgium and Poland in April

Back to Quick Navigation | 22Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

In Europe BP Chemical on 15 April declared a force majeure at its Belgium PTA unit and a second force majeure on 17 May PKN Orlen on 23 April declared a force majeure at its Wloclawek PTA unit in Poland which was subsequently lifted on 2 May with spot cargoes from the plant limited until after a planned maintenance in SeptemberOctober 2018

Within Asia the southeastern region has had PTA plant outages and had to procure cargoes from the northeast in the preceding two months

Regional supply tightened further with the unexpected shutdown of Hanwha General Chemicalrsquos 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Daesan prompting a force majeure declaration on 21 May

In the first half of 2018 strong growth in demand in the downstream polyester markets in Asia particularly China supported the rally in PTA prices amid tight supply

Downstream polyester markets were enjoying positive margins keeping demand for feedstock PTA healthy

In the key China market operating rates at polyester units were higher compared with the previous year

The countryrsquos PTA production losses in January-June 2018 on the other hand were estimated at around 134m tonnes due to planned and unplanned outages

Asiarsquos PTA producers were largely enjoying healthy margins on the back of steady demand growth in the downstream polyester markets Firmer upstream energy

and feedstock PX prices have also buoyed PTA prices

In January to May 2018 Brent crude traded at $6692-7616bbl up by about 25 year

on year while PX prices were at $938-994tonne representing a 15 increase over the same period

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian purified terephthalic acid (PTA)) markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 23Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPOLYETHYLENE TEREPHTHALATE (PET)

ASIA PET TO REMAIN FIRM IN Q3 AS TIGHT SUPPLY SUPPORT PRICESBy Hazel Goh

Asian polyethylene terephthalate (PET) market is likely to remain firm in the third quarter on the back of tight supply a trend that has supported prices so far in 2018

Recently PET tight supply is a result of production cuts in Asia and Europe that have not had a clear estimated date of resuming normal operations

China Resources Packaging had cut production at its PET lines in Changzhou by 50 following notice from the government to reduce pollution in end-May It is not known for how long the production cuts will remain in place

In Europe there had been feedstock purified terephthalic acid (PTA) supply tightness leading to recent PET production cuts and force majeure by Novapet and JBF respectively

Many buyers had been purchasing on a need-to basis expecting that firm prices are unsustainable and will come down Subsequently they did not stock up cargoes ahead of the peak summer demand season for countries in the northern hemisphere

The reality turned out different and they had to accept higher prices as production cuts kept the supply tight

PET used to track feedstock price movements closely as it had been an oversupplied market and producers typically operate on thin margins

The oversupply situation changed and tightness was first felt in the third quarter of 2017 when plant closures by JBF RAK in the UAE and Belgium and by Mossi amp Ghisolfi (MampG) in the US Mexico and Brazil following financial tightness in the two PET-producing companies

Hurricane Harvey that hit the US in the third quarter led to further production cuts in the US

Back to Quick Navigation | 24Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 1

From then on supply remained tight as the plant under JBF RAK in the UAE and the former MampG plant in the US that had been acquired by Far Eastern remained shut for extended period of time even into 2018

Market players previously had concerns about where China will export its material when final anti-dumping duties (ADD) - heard to be at the same level as thepreliminary duties of 398-530 - wereimposed on its cargoes into Japan inJanuary

Japan was the top exporting destination for Chinese cargoes before the ADD following which the exports dropped drastically

While other producers such as Taiwanese southeast Asian Indian and South Korean producers sold more volumes into Japan Chinese makers sold to other markets that were relinquished by the other producers

Table 1 shows a significant difference between 2016 and 2017 in Chinarsquos export volumes to key destinations from the January-to-March period

Ranked by volume starting with largestvolume as 1

There is an ongoing anti-dumping duty (ADD) investigation by the US on PET cargoes from Brazil Pakistan Indonesia Taiwan and South Korea

The Commerce Department issued the preliminary dumping rates for Indonesia at 1316 South Korea at 881-10141 and Taiwan at 902-1189 in May Final determinations will be issued by 8 November

Even so some producers from the countries under investigation continued to receive buying enquiries from the US amid the current tight supply situation

There will be some upcoming new capacities expected in Q3 as shown in table 2 that may bring about a more balanced supply to meet the demand

The US plant acquired by Far Eastern is estimated to restart in June-July which should also ease the supply tightness

Even with the new capacities and plant restarts market participants think it is unlikely that PET market will return to the oversupply situation seen in the previous years

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian PET markets

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Table 2

Our English-language report coverage includes

Styrene MEG Propylene

BTX Methanol Base Oil

BPA PE MTBE

Phenol PP Mixed AromaticsAcetone Oxo-Alcohol

Trusted industryintelligence for Chinarsquoscommodity marketsDevelopments in Chinarsquos petrochemicals industrycontinue to affect the global marketplace It istherefore vital for domestic and internationalmarket players to keep track of changes withinthe country to know where opportunities lie

ICIS has long been recognised as a reliablesource of information our locally-based expertscompile reports and analyses in English tosupport industry participants dealing with Chinamarkets or seeking to trade or invest

Pricing informationOur pricing data provide key insights into pricetrends in China to support your short-termdecision-making negotiations and analyses

bull Import and export spot and contract pricesbull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity

and upstreamdownstream marketsbull Data on inventory levels and price marginsbull Plant and production news

Petrochemicals Analytics SolutionsProviding our customers with a 360-degree view of the Chinese market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker - real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for thenext 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics - key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock anddo wnstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlooks

Available for key chemical commodities

wwwiciscomchina

Discover how we can meet your market information needs

enquiryiciscom

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESMONOETHYLENE GLYCOL (MEG)

ASIA MEG TO SEE DEMAND TAPERING LOWER SUPPLY IN EARLY H2By Eric Su

The Asian monoethylene glycol (MEG) market could see demand slowing down from the end of June while supply will be reduced from a number of plant turnarounds

Inventories are expected to decline in June after offtake rates at Chinese main ports rose sharply in the last two weeks of May because of an uptick in demand from downstream polyester buyers

Demand for MEG is also expected to remain strong in the first half of June boosted by high polyester production rates of above 85 and modestly low inventory levels

A slowdown in demand may take place in the second half of June as the traditional manufacturing peak period nears its end in July

Meanwhile supply conditions could tighten because of the plant turnarounds in northeast Asia

However supply from the Middle East will likely resume to normal levels given that there were no further delay in shipments in May

MEG prices in Asia have registered year-on-year growth rates in the months to June this year

MEG prices have mostly hovered above $900tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China Main Port (CMP) while prices were mostly below $900tonne CFR CMP in 2017

Prices have been volatile in 2018 with major price swings seen on a near monthly basis since February

MEG prices in first quarter of 2018 continued the uptrend seen in the fourth quarter of 2017 rising to $1030tonne CFR CMP in early March from $922tonne CFR

CMP in late December as the higher-than-expected growth in downstream polyester fuelled bullish market sentiment

Polyester growth in 2017 was estimated at above 10 beating an originally bearish expectation of 2-3

A price downtrend was observed in March with the MEG weekly average price losing nearly 10 of its value to $929tonne CFR CMP by end-March

The price decline coincided with a sharp influx of imported cargoes which was likely a result of over-procurement in January

Back to Quick Navigation | 26Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

and February when prices were trending upwards

March 2018 import volumes rose to nearly 1m tonnes a record three-year high according to official China customs data

MEG prices rebounded in April rising by around 9 from end-March to $1014tonne CFR CMP by end-April ahead of the traditional peak period for the downstream polyester sector The average polyester production rate rose to above 85 during the period

MEG also achieved its to-date weekly peak of $1042tonne CFR CMP in the week ending 20 April

Supply tightness was also observed in the Chinese domestic market because of shipment delays from the Middle East and logistical issues at China main ports over the same period

The lack of availability of prompt cargoes also led to an atypical price spread between April and May delivery parcels

Normally the spread between arrived-at-port and far-term arrival cargoes is at $0-10tonne CFR CMP but this widened to $20-30tonne CFR CMP This drove concerns of sharp price adjustments in May once April deliveries were fulfilled

These concerns came true as MEG prices

began to slide in May MEG weekly prices stood at $928tonne CFR CMP in the last week of May falling from $1003tonne CFR CMP in early May

High inventory levels have also weighed on MEG prices Inventory levels were above 900000 tonnes from early May onward rising to 938000 tonnes by in late March Most market participants deemed inventory levels above 900000 tonnes to be high

The increase in inventory levels in May were largely attributed to the arrival of Middle East shipments which were previously due for arrival in April

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian MEG markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 27Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSETHYLENE

NE ASIA ETHYLENE H2 OUTLOOK HINGES ON NEW SUPPLY SM PLANTBy Yeow Pei Lin

Northeast (NE) Asiarsquos ethylene (C2) second-half 2018 outlook is uncertain as several crackers are scheduled for maintenance but such production losses could be offset by the start up of a new plant and cargoes from outside the region

More than 20 crackers in Asia are slated to undergo maintenance in 2018 with the estimated capacity losses totalling more than 185m tonnes Most of the turnarounds in the first half of the year were concentrated in Japan ndash a key exporter to China

However several more companies are to carry out turnarounds in June and the rest of the year

The impact on the regional balance will depend on the start-up progress of a new facility in South Korea and on whether the strong exports from southeast Asia and Europe in the first half of 2018 will continue

Shipments from Yeosu South Korea will start to slow down in August ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at complexes in that region

Exports will recover by December when Lotte Chemical brings on-stream an added capacity of 200000 tonnesyear at its Yeosu cracker

The facility will undergo an expansion during a turnaround from late September to October

Shipments from Ulsan another petrochemical cluster in South Korea will grow in the second half of 2018

Newcomer S-Oil is expected to begin commercial operations at its residue upgrading complex (RUC) in Onsan in the second half of June

The companyrsquos entire ethylene output of up

to around 200000 tonnesyear is intended for the merchant market as it does not have any downstream plants

Exports from southeast Asian producers will continue to be driven by the higher value from ethylene sales in the ethylene versus polyethylene (PE) trade-off

There will however be supply constraints

Four crackers in the region will undergo

maintenance and the affected producers include ExxonMobil and PTT Global Chemicals (PTTGC) that were regular exporters in the first half of 2018

Exports from Europe will likely be influenced by the performance of the PE sector

The outlook for the PE market in Europe is uncertain given the growing prospect of competitively-priced exports from the new US plants

Back to Quick Navigation | 28Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Ethylene costs in the US have been at low levels since early 2018 as production growth outpaces that for consumption

Since late 2017 about 3m tonnesyear of new ethylene capacity and about 35m tonnesyear of new PE capacity have started up in the US

The new crackers have been running well but several of the new PE plants struggled to reach full operating rates

Exports from Saudi Arabia are expected to be constrained by increased domestic consumption

Petro Rabigh announced in April that the last few plants in its Phase 2 project including a 75000 tonneyear ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) unit have started up

The companyrsquos ethylene exports could fall further in the second half of 2018 following the completion of its PE plant maintenance shutdowns earlier in the year

Chinarsquos import demand is poised for further growth when a new 260000 tonneyear styrene monomer (SM) plant starts up in the third quarter as planned

Anhui Haoyuan Chemical will be operating the unit in Fuyang Anhui on a standalone basis as its plans to build a methanol-to-olefin (MTO) plant have been put on hold amid high methanol prices

The plant will require around 78000 tonnes of ethylene annually to operate at maximum capacity

Based on the above factors it was not immediately clear if the ethylene prices in the second half will follow the volatile trend they displayed in the first five months of 2018

NE Asia spot ethylene prices were volatile from January to May as the impact of a heavy regional cracker turnaround schedule and strong Chinese demand was at times outweighed by strong exports from southeast Asia the Middle East and Europe

The market started the year at above a two and a half year high of $1415tonne CFR (cost amp freight) NE Asia in early January

Subsequent transacted prices fluctuated within a low $1200stonne to mid $1300stonne CFR NE Asia band in the five months ended 31 May

Prices in the first quarter were initially weighed down by ample supply from producers in the Middle East and Asia due to a series of PE plant shutdowns - both planned and unplanned

That was despite strong pre-Lunar New Year holiday restocking activities in China

Demand was bolstered by the start up of a 500000 tonneyear non-integrated SM plant and generally healthy downstream margins for producers outside the PE sector

End-users were also keen to build up their inventories because of the slow progress in their 2018 term contract discussions ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at facilities of key exporters in the region

In addition a major ethylene oxide (EO) maker was seeking more import cargoes following a disruption in supply from its upstream MTO unit The plant was shut twice between late November and the first half of February because of high feedstock methanol costs

The market recovered in early March in line with the start of the annual cracker turnaround season in northeast Asia where

scheduled capacity losses in 2018 will be overall higher than the previous year

That explained why the countryrsquos exports from January to April slumped by 14 year-on-year to 201274 tonnes

In late April northeast Asiarsquos spot prices fell again after a surprisingly large quantity of deep-sea spot cargoes were sold into Asia for delivery between the middle of May and the first half of June

There were at least 55000-60000 tonnes of cargoes from Europe in addition to 11000 tonnes of US supply for that delivery period Europe was in a long position because of derivative maintenance shutdowns and production problems

Continued strong exports from southeast Asia owing to downstream production issues and the weak performance of the linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) market contributed to the downbeat sentiment

The ample supply outweighed Chinarsquos robust import demand

Buying interest in China was strong for April and May arrival cargoes on the back

Back to Quick Navigation | 29Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

of healthy downstream margins for certain downstream markets such as SM EO and monoethylene glycol (MEG)

Ethylene buyers in China were also keen to book deep-sea cargoes to offset the expected regional production losses from cracker turnarounds

Prices rebounded quickly in mid-May

aided by a bullish SM market and reduced domestic supply

Some MTO operators lowered production in May as high feedstock methanol costs led to squeezed margins while a key producer in east China lowered its cracker run rates unexpectedly

Sharp increases in feedstock naphtha costs

which tracked gains on crude oil futures also helped set a floor to the earlier price declines

By early June spot ethylene prices had touched a 20-week high raising questions on whether the market will see similar price volatility in the second half of 2018

Producers will turn hawkish if the outlook for crude and naphtha markets remains upbeat

Back to Quick Navigation | 30Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSPROPYLENE

TIGHT NE ASIA PROPYLENE SUPPLY TO LIMIT H2 PRICE FLUCTUATIONSBy Joson Ng

Tight propylene (C3) supply in northeast Asia amid a heavy turnaround schedule in 2018 will continue supporting regional prices of the material into the second half

Sellers are likely to continue passing on firmer costs to buyers which are wary of October when heavy propylene production losses are expected

Buyersrsquo resistance in the key China market would keep any further increase in propylene prices in check with some downstream producers considering cutting output due to high feedstock costs

At the start of June propylene prices have weakened ending the strong general uptrend since end-March amid weakness in Chinarsquos domestic market as demand softened due to turnarounds at downstream polypropylene (PP) plants

However the downward pressure on regional prices may be temporary as overall supply in Asia is expected to be tight

In early June spot propylene prices in northeast Asia were about 9 higher from the start of 2018 according to ICIS data

The year started on a bullish note fuelled by a heavier cracker turnaround schedule compared with 2017 and higher premium levels concluded for contract cargoes

The uptrend was sustained into February due to restocking activities in various import markets in northeast Asia before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February

Before the holidays some South Korean producers were convinced the market will experience supply shortage as both GS Caltexrsquos fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity and Yeochun NCCrsquos (YNCC) cracker ndash which can produce 280000 tonnesyear of propylene ndash were due for maintenance in February through to April

But propylene prices surprisingly weakened from 9 February to end-March without demand support from Chinarsquos weak PP market which struggled through sluggish sales and high inventory after the countryrsquos week-long Lunar New Year holiday

A renewed wave of scheduled turnarounds at regional plants tightened supply and drove up propylene prices in April and May

In Taiwan Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) took its residue fluid catalytic

Back to Quick Navigation | 31Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

cracking (RFCC) unit with a 350000 tonneyear propylene capacity off stream from 1 March to mid-April while CPC Corp shut its 100000 tonneyear FCC unit on 10 April and restarted in early June

In South Korea GS Caltex also had a turnaround at its FCC unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity from 19 February to 5 April

SK Advanced shut its propane dehydrogenated (PDH) unit with 600000 tonneyear propylene capacity on 21 April to early May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian propylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 32Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

To talk to someone about price forecast reports call the numbers below or email us at salesukiciscomAsia-Pacific Europe Africa and Middle East The AmericasTel +65 6789 8828 Tel +44 20 8652 3335 Tel +1 713 525 2600 or Toll free +1 888 525 3255 (US and Canada only)

ICIS price forecast reportsSupply demand and price trends at a glance

ICIS price forecast reports provide a clear view of prices and supply and demand trends for the next 12 months Packed with vital information the report includes everything you need to assess where the market is heading and the impact or opportunity that presents for your business

To find out more or take a trial visit wwwiciscompriceforecast

Price Forecast Window

ICIS price forecasts are now available on the Dashboard channel using the Price Forecast Window which will enable users to

n Chart the price forecast against the last (rolling) twelve months of related price history

n Plot the last 12 months to view forecast progression and ICIS forecast accuracy

n Convert data into different currencies and units and download this data into Excel in order to easily enter into your own calculations

How price forecast reports can help youn Understand the marketUse ICIS price forecast reports to understand where the market is heading and identify the risks and the opportunities for your business What are the major demand developments for your product n Safeguard commercial decisionsUse market information to make better-informed business decisions relating to supply and demand Learn about changes in market capacities What factors will affect supply for you n Budgeting and planningWhether you are planning how much you will be spending in the short-to medium or even long term use the price forecast reports to help assess future prices for your product What will the price of your product be in six monthsrsquo time

Price forecast reports currently

available

Available as price forecast windows only

Polypropylene

Polyethylene

Benzene

StyrenePolystyrene

Methanol

Ethylene

Propylene

Styrene

Asia Europe US Global

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

OLEFINSBUTADIENE

ASIA BD TO FLUCTUATE IN H2 AS SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE SHIFTSBy Helen Yan

Asiarsquos butadiene (BD) spot prices for July shipments are likely to face downward pressure but any price downtrend is likely to reverse when cracker turnarounds start to kick in from September onwards

BD prices are expected to be weighed down before seeing support again in the third quarter as the supply and demand balance shifts during this period

The fourth quarter will likely see support for BD prices although the increases may be tempered by resistance from the downstream synthetic rubber (SR) makers to any significant price hikes

The busy cracker turnaround season in September-November will likely see supply tightening at the same time that demand is expected to pick up during this period

Several crackers and BD units including South Korearsquos Lotte Chemical LG Chem and Chinarsquos Shanghai Secco and Maoming Petrochemical are scheduled to shut during

the September to November time frame

In the near term BD spot prices are likely to continue to trend lower as demand wanes while supply at the same time is expected to lengthen due to an influx of deep-sea cargoes and regional cracker restarts

More than 15000 tonnes of deep-sea cargoes from EU are expected to arrive in Asia in June and July at the same time that crackers in Asia including Indiarsquos Haldia Petrochemical and Indonesiarsquos Chandra Asri resume their production following their maintenance shutdowns

On 8 June spot prices fell to $1725tonne CFR (cost amp freight) northeast (NE) Asia the second consecutive week of decline after spiralling upwards in the two months since early April

BD spot prices had increased by more than 40 since early April peaking at $1800tonne CFR NE Asia on 25 May

Strong demand from derivative acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) makers which were running their plants at optimal rates had bolstered the BD price upsurge during this period

However derivative styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) and polybutadiene rubber (PBR) producers the key consumers of BD cut their production output given the continued erosion in margins

Several major SBR and PBR producers said their margins had fallen into negative territory and retreated from the BD spot market in June

Chinese spot appetite in particular tapered off as domestic BD prices were lower compared with the US dollar-denominated import prices

In China Hangzhou Zhechen Jilin Petrochemical Zhejiang Transfar and Shen Hua Chemical were some of the SBR and PBR plants that are shut for maintenance in June and July

Several SBR and PBR plants in Taiwan and South Korea were also running at lower rates following the 40 BD price spike in the two months from early April to end-May

In South Korea major SR producer Korea Kumho Petrochemical PC was running its SBR and PBR plants at reduced rates

Back to Quick Navigation | 33Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian butadiene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 34Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Similarly Taiwanrsquos TSRC also cut the production output of its SBR and PBR plants

The outlook for the fourth quarter is expected to see a different turn of events with SBR and PBR plants resuming their production and ramping up their operating rates while supply during the last quarter is expected to tighten from the heavy cracker turnaround season

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYETHYLENE (PE)

SOUTHEAST ASIA PE MARKET FACES LONGER H2 SUPPLY WEAK DEMANDBy Felita Widjaja

Southeast Asiarsquos polyethylene (PE) market may be facing longer supply in the second half hinging on how the US-China trade spat plays out amid the regionrsquos weakening demand for imports

Global PE trade flows will be affected should China the biggest importer of spot PE cargoes in the world decide to impose retaliatory 25 tariff on US cargoes

Southeast Asia as an alternative buying region might be hard pressed to absorb additional supply from the US where massive PE capacities recently started up which were meant to cater to huge Chinese demand

Around 5m tonnes of additional US PE capacities are expected from several major projects including those in the pipeline to start up within the second half of 2018

China primarily imports PE cargoes from Asia and the Middle East while the US is its sixth leading PE supplier in 2017

ldquoEventually more substantial and regular volume of US [PE] cargoes are expected to be traded in Asia in the second half of the year as we have yet to see them in the first half of this yearrdquo said a regional trader

Any changes in trade flows would pose challenges to US suppliers in the short term as they would need to revamp their logistics and distribution channels to redirect cargoes to other markets

Suppliers from the Middle East meanwhile might take the opportunity to supply more cargoes to China and would mean fewer volumes available to the southeast Asian market

The Middle East is southeast Asiarsquos major PE supplier

Demand for PE imports in southeast Asia has been weak amid lower prices in

Back to Quick Navigation | 35Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

the domestic markets as in the case of Thailand

ldquoThai traders are not keen to import as local prices are more competitive so they do not have the margin to sell the imported cargoes in local market Only some converters who need specific cargoes continue to importrdquo said a local Thai trader

Malaysia and Indonesia with predominantly Muslim populations have seen market activity slow down since mid-May when the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan started Ramadan ends with the Eid ul-Fitr holiday on 15 June

The Indonesian government has declared a longer Eid-ul Fitr holiday this year from 11-20 June

Markets in Singapore and the Philippines will be closed for the mid-June holiday as well

With supply expected to become long some market players expect regional PE prices in July and August to ease from

June with restocking activities expected to kick in towards the end of the third quarter

In the first half of 2018 southeast Asiarsquos average prices for commodity PE were largely stable to firm owing to suppliersrsquo relatively comfortable-to-tight supply for most of the period

At the start of June high density polyethylene (HDPE) film grade prices averaged $1395tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia while linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) film were at $1210tonne CFR SE Asia and $1265tonne CFR SE Asia respectively according to ICIS data

Prices had spiked in the first quarter as suppliers were holding comfortable-to-tight inventory as several regional producers have scheduled turnarounds at their plants in March Production issues and shutdowns in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia also limited availability of imports to southeast Asia during this period

Supply for HDPE film was particularly tight as some producers from the Middle East as well as Asia switched their focus into making HDPE pipe grade amid robust demand and better netbacks

The price uptrend across most PE grades could not be sustained in the second quarter although prices remained relatively stable-to-firm

The depreciation of local currencies in southeast Asia against the US dollar in most of the second quarter was also curbing overall demand for imports A weaker currency makes US dollar-denominated imports expensive

ldquoIndonesian buyers have not been buying much cargoes as the market slowed down during Ramadan and also because of weak rupiah which led the central bank to increase interest rate to limit the depreciationrdquo said a regional producer

CHINA PE IMPORTS TO STAY STRONG AMID DOMESTIC PLANT TURNAROUNDS By Angie Li

Chinarsquos polyethylene (PE) imports are expected to remain strong for the rest of the year after posting record volumes in January to April 2018 amid scheduled turnarounds at domestic facilities

Buyers in China have been accumulating imported PE cargoes as these were priced lower compared futures prices since the start of the year

More cargoes will be available to China as new capacities in the US are expected to boost production

For the month of May the countryrsquos PE imports are projected to reach 12m tonnes higher than the monthly average in the first four months of 2018

In January to April 2018 its PE imports volumes totaled 447m tonnes up by 12 from the previous corresponding period according to industry sources

The import volumes were making up for the production losses in the domestic market due to scheduled turnarounds

On 1 June low density PE (LDPE) imports were assessed at $1155-1180tonne linear low density PE (LLDPE) stood at $1150-1170tonne while high density PE (HDPE) film products were at $1340-1400tonne according to ICIS data

The prices have increased 15-62 from end-March but the gains came in lower than market playersrsquo expectations considering the heavy production loss due to turnarounds from April

Back to Quick Navigation | 36Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

An estimated 500000 tonnes are expected to be shaved in the second quarter due to scheduled maintenance at domestic facilities according ICIS data

ldquoWe thought the hefty plant turnarounds in the second quarter should lead to a surge in PE prices but the LDPE and LLDPE prices were less than satisfactory although HDPE prices [were] highrdquo said an east China-based trader referring to both the import and domestic PE prices

Strong imports amid hedging activities bloated the total supply in China in January to April to 998m tonnes up by 8 from the previous corresponding period with supply of LDPE and LLDPE up by 14 and 8 respectively market sources said

Imports of HDPE inched up by 2 over the same period given the gradersquos comparatively higher prices compared with LLDPE and LDPE

Increased availability due to recent capacity expansions and start-ups in Asia the Middle East also fuels Chinarsquos appetite for import cargoes

In the first quarter of 2018 additional cargoes from Saudi Arabia were mostly from Sadara Chemical which started up its 750000 tonneyear swing plant and 350000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Al Jubail during late 2016 and early 2017 respectively

Cargoes of Iran origin augmented the total volume from the UAE as market players try to go around the financial sanctions on Tehran Kordestan Petrochemicalrsquos 300000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Iran came on stream in March 2017

UAErsquos Borouge has also ramped up pipe and HDPE film exports to China during the period according to a supplier in the Middle East

Meanwhile PE imports from Singapore surged 38 year on year while those from India more than doubled to 127000 tonnes according to China Customs data

The ban on waste plastics implemented in China in the year also bolstered imports of virgin PE Some waste plastics processed overseas and then re-entered the market as virgin products but these volumes were limited

Last year China has imported 194m tonnes of PE waste plastics while

volumes in 2018 will be negligible with the implemention of the ban

Chinarsquos PE production this year is expected to increase by around 7 to about 17m tonnes in 2018 with imports projected to grow by 102 to around 13m tonnes according to a source from state-owned petrochemical giant PetroChina

Domestic demand for PE on the other hand is forecast to grow by 8 this year mainly from the packaging and pipe markets

Chinarsquos ongoing campaign to switch to using gas for power generation instead of coal is expected to continue boosting demand for PE gas pipes this year

The packaging industry will also drive up PE consumption underpinned by growth in electronic commerce Chinarsquos express delivery volumes reached 137bn packages during January-April 2018 based on data from the recent China Express Industry Development Conference in May

Back to Quick Navigation | 37Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 38Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

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bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

By Jonathan Lopez

ICIS NewsThe leading news service for real-time ground breaking news and analysis on the global petrochemicals markets

The ICIS News services give you unrivalled access to the most in-depth stories impacting the petrochemicals markets influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions

Our team of global editors are reporting around the clock to bring you the latest news and analysis so that you get the full picture of market and pricing developments first providing you with invaluable foresight to take advantage of every opportunity and to stay ahead of your competitors

With ICIS News you will be the first to read

Breaking news on the chemical markets that will impact your business

News on market moves deals and announcements that will affect your organisation

Force majeures closures and developments that influence your commodity prices

Expert analysis on industry trends and hot topics ndash know whatrsquos happening and why

Searchable archive with over 14 million articles from the past 10 years

Chemical Business News Base (CBNB) is a premium resource available on ICIS News It provides you with an extensive external source of upstream and downstream petrochemical news in summarised snapshots so you can quickly and easily get the latest updates on whatrsquos important to you

CBNB offers readers

Fast and consistent coverage on news facts figures from the upstream and downstream petrochemicals industry

Access to over 700 news sources including technical and trade journals company literature market research reports stockbroker reports books and directories

User-friendly search functionality to find articles most relevant to you from around the globe

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ICIS Chemical Business digital magazine (ICB) Our global team of experts digests and summarises the key issues and their potential impact on the chemical markets offering a comprehensive overview of the key developments that matter most-along with informed opinion and in-depth analysis

ICB features include

In-depth insight into chemical price changes and their impact on the markets

Understand the detail behind the headline news stories

Find out about supply amp demand trends and the factors impacting them

Get the complete picture of the chemical markets ndash all in one e-magazine

Easy access via e-magazine and premium magazine website

Find out more wwwiciscomnews

ICIS News offers access to additional sources including the ICIS Chemical Business Magazine and Chemical Business News Base (CBNB)

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYPROPYLENE (PP)

SE ASIA PP PRICES MAY COME UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 AS SUPPLY LENGTHENSBy Leanne Tan

Southeast Asiarsquos polypropylene (PP) market may come under pressure in the second half of the year on account of lengthening regional supply and weak downstream demand

Spot prices have been on the rise for most of May buoyed by bullish sentiment in the Chinese market and firm upstream feedstock costs

Margins for PP makers have been lower on average compared with levels in the previous year

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refinery amp Petrochemicals is scheduled to start up its 400000 tonneyear PP production unit in the third quarter The project was initially scheduled to start up in the first quarter of 2018

While domestic demand will continue to outstrip local production the countryrsquos reliance on imports may be diminished when the new plant starts up

Converters in the country have been opting to keep inventories lean in the short term amid expectations that prices may eventually weaken when more domestic supply becomes available

ldquoBuyers donrsquot want to buy too much import cargoes now not just because prices are high but also because there will be more locally-produced materials very soonrdquo a Vietnamese trader said

In Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan is expected to start commercial production at its expanded PP facility in Pasir Gudang in June or July The plantrsquos capacity will be raised by 200000 tonnesyear from 400000 tonnesyear

Import availabilities from South Korea are expected to lengthen in the medium-to-long term with S-Oil expected to complete an olefin downstream complex (ODC) at its Onsan refinery in Ulsan which will include a

405000 tonneyear PP capacity

On the demand front weakness is likely to persist in the second half with converters and end-users likely to continue buying spot cargoes on a hand-to-mouth basis

Indonesiarsquos demand in particular has been below expectations since the start of 2018 and this is likely to continue in the second half of the year according to market players

Back to Quick Navigation | 39Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Some players said import demand for dutiable cargoes may increase in the second half of the year as this is typically when the government issues duty exemption facilities

The duty exemption facilities are issued on a yearly basis which enable converters to import some PP volumes without extra cost

In Malaysia the removal of the 6 goods and services tax (GST) so far has had no immediate impact on the PP market although there are some expectations the move could potentially boost demand in the consumer market further down the road

In Vietnam demand for PP flat yarn has entered a seasonal lull from May to early July and will not pick up until August when the summer harvest begins

PP is widely used in the manufacture of woven sacks (for rice sacks) flexible packaging carpets household appliances and automotive parts

Spot PP prices in southeast Asia have been an uptrend for most of the first half

The PP market begun the year on a bullish note with spot prices surging by almost 10 over the course of two months all-origins PP flat yarn prices peaked at $1295tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia on 2 March

Healthy demand in China helped to provide support to spot prices in southeast Asia in the first quarter with a tight global spot supply leading to further price escalations

Some suppliers pulled back from the southeast Asian spot market to capitalise on better netbacks in other countries including Japan and Pakistan leading to further curtailed spot availability in southeast Asia

The market rally started to lose steam in early March amid subdued demand and a build-up of domestic inventories in China after the Lunar New Year holidays

The bearish sentiment soon spilled over into southeast Asia with Chinese suppliers pushing some volumes into southeast Asia amid an open arbitrage window

Vietnam remains the market of choice for Chinese exporters and PP import prices in the country plummeted as the result of the lengthened spot availability

However the bearish run was short-lived and prices soon bottomed out in early April

Bullish momentum in the upstream crude and naphtha markets propelled spot prices of polymers higher

Despite lacklustre downstream demand price hikes in April and May were commonplace as producers sought higher asking prices in view of narrower margins

TIGHT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT CHINA PP MARKET DESPITE WEAK DEMANDBy Dora Xue

Tight supply would buoy up Chinarsquos polypropylene (PP) prices in the near term despite weak downstream demand

The market is expecting heavy production losses following recent unexpected outages at five domestic facilities from May and scheduled turnarounds at other plants

In the week ended on 1 June domestic prices for PP flat yarn in east China were assessed at Chinese yuan (CNY) 9075tonne after a steady increase from early April according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos import prices for the same material stood at $1245tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China largely tracking movement in the domestic market over the past two months according to ICIS data

The strong PP prices have also started to deter buyers from purchasing more spot cargoes

ldquoPP prices are too high We donrsquot want to store too much in our warehouserdquo a buyer said

Downstream demand typically goes on a lull in June and July but any downward pressure on prices will be negated by a further tightening of supply as major plants will be taken off line for maintenance

ldquoWhen the maintenance season finishes in late June [PP] prices may start to go downrdquo a trader said

Demand is considered weakest at Qingdao in the eastern Shandong province due to government-mandated production cuts and logistics restrictions ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (SCO Summit) on 9-10 June

As of 1 June the combined polyolefin inventories of Chinese petrochemical majors Sinopec and PetroChina have declined back to normal levels of 700000 tonnes from a high of 1m tonnes in early March market sources said

Import supply to China may not improve in the short term as suppliers still deem other

Back to Quick Navigation | 40Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

Back to Quick Navigation | 43Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 5: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

AROMATICSBENZENE

ASIA BENZENE DEMAND MAY IMPROVE SUPPLY TO STAY LONG INTO H2By Clive Ong

Asiarsquos benzene demand may improve in July-August with the expected restart of downstream plants from turnarounds with supply to be curtailed by scheduled shutdowns of two regional facilities

But the high inventories in the key China market as well as along the supply chain in Asia will require time to whittle down which will hinge on the strength of demand across Asia in the third quarter

Strong run rates at benzene units in Asia amid turnarounds at downstream styrene monomer (SM) phenol and methyl diphenyl di-isocyanate (MDI) plants caused the build-up in stocks across the region in the first half of this year

Inventories in the key China market piled up above 230000 tonnes in May this year from around 150000 tonnes in December 2017

ldquoMost downstream turnarounds will complete in May and June hence benzene consumption will likely increase from the third quarterrdquo a Singapore-based trader said

Availability of benzene will also be curtailed as SK Global and Ulsan Aromatics have scheduled maintenance at their plants in the second half of MayJune

New supplies could also hit Asia in the third quarter with the start-up Petro Rabighrsquos new 400000 tonneyear benzene facility in the second quarter although operations at this plant remains erratic

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refineryrsquos 250000 tonneyear plant is expected to have benzene cargoes available in July

ldquoDemand for benzene in Asia and the US in the third quarter will play an important role in reducing the supply in the regionrdquo said another trader in Singapore

Back to Quick Navigation | 05Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The spot east-west arbitrage window has not stayed open throughout the first half of 2018 hampering shipping of cargoes to the US South Korea and Japan are key exporters of benzene to the US

ldquoThe arbitrage window was largely open in April but became not viable in Mayrdquo said a South Korea-based producer

Benzene is a base chemical used to make other chemicals such as SM phenol and caprolactam

In the second quarter suppliers in the region were grappling with excess inventories and a lack of outlets for their cargoes

Most key buyers in China Taiwan and southeast Asia have sufficient supplies with little appetite for spot cargoes Lackluster demand caused the CFR (cost amp freight) China prices to fall below FOB (free on board) Korea prices according to ICIS data

Premium for spot parcels into Taiwan (CFR) also declined to the low single digits over FOB Korea in the first half of May as buyers had little spot interest

The situation was just as dismal in southeast Asia where FOB SE Asia prices traded at a discount of $35tonne to FOB Korea at one point in the second half of April

In India FOB India trades were at a discount of more than $50tonne to FOB Korea as demand waned

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian benzene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 06Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

AROMATICSXYLENES

ASIA MX LIKELY TO BE UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 2018 ON WEAK DEMANDBy Deborah Lee

Asian mixed xylenes are likely to face headwinds in H2 2018 on weaker demand from the gasoline blending sector as well as increasing length in downstream markets

Demand for xylenes as a gasoline blending component in China has softened due to lower crude oil prices

Brent futures have come off from a recent peak of over $80bbl to hover at around $75-7750bbl range in June breaking an uptrend seen earlier in the year

Prices of octane boosters typically rise when crude is on an upswing as gasoline margins are expected to increase

Adding to the bleak outlook for gasoline blending materials stockpiles of blending gasoline within China are plentiful sources said

The isomer-grade xylene (IX) cargoes are mainly used as a feedstock for downstream paraxylene (PX) but upcoming capacity will keep a lid on spot IX prices

The new PX production facilities are largely integrated and do not require additional procurement of IX

Already the spread between PX and IX has narrowed from $180-190tonne to $140-150tonne with $120-140tonne being the breakeven point for producers

Earlier in the first half of 2018 strong China demand and firm crude had pushed mixed xylene prices up

Fundamentally demand from China pushed prices higher as the countryrsquos imports of IX had been persistently higher since the end of 2017

Demand for IX as a gasoline blending component was one major factor for the increase in appetite for the material while

another was that an integrated plant in China was purchasing spot IX in the market as a feedstock for its PX plant due to issues with its own IX cargoes

Margins for PX had remained at healthy levels despite the strength in the IX market keeping buying interest in IX as a feedstock healthy

Concerns remained over Chinarsquos new tax policy aimed to reduce tax evasion for gasoline blenders which was originally planned to begin 1 March but the impact was tempered by the clear uptrend in crude futures as well as a strong Chinese yuan

Strength in the yuan helped boost demand for imports as US dollar cargoes were more competitive as a result

Buyers at the same time sought IX cargoes over solvent-grade xylene (SX) on concerns that Chinese authorities would implement an additional consumption tax on mixed aromatics which shares the same HS code as SX There has yet to be an official announcement on the additional consumption tax

Further exacerbating the situation was tight supply with a Japanese producer was scheduled to be shut from June to August for maintenance greatly reducing supply of IX in the region

But the spike in spot prices sparked concerns that demand was unsustainable at that point -- gasoline blending margins were unappealing and stockpiles of blended gasoline in China were high

In May the sharp increase in IX prices eroded PX margins as well adding to concerns that buying interest was not sufficient to keep the market discussions at such high levels

Prices slipped after peaking at $867tonne on 10 May

This was offset when Chinarsquos Maoming Petrochemical successfully started up and achieved on-spec cargoes at its phase II aromatics unit in Guangdong on 20 May The plant is able is produce 400000 tonnesyear of IX

With the new plant adding to domestic supply in China the prospect of import demand was looking dim

Back to Quick Navigation | 07Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Domestic prices of IX in east China were now cheaper than imported prices the CFR northeast Asia price now commanding a small premium to the import parity of local spot discussions

With gasoline blending margins down and ample cheaper substitutes available demand for SX has also taken a hit

But supply remained tight for SX in China with buying interest strong in recent weeks although buyers have lowered bids in line with the fall in the domestic market

Inventory levels have recovered from just 900 tonnes in the middle of May and continue to hover around 5000 tonnes In 2017 weekly SX stockpiles in east China averaged 17172 tonnes

The supply situation was unlikely to ease with production of SX in the region limited due to increasing reliance on lighter feeds such as LPG

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian mixed xylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 08Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Pricing IntelligenceAccess independent price assessments that meet IOSCOrsquos PRA Principles and are widely trusted and used as benchmarks in the industry ICIS coverage is unrivalled with pricing data and information for over 180 commodities across all key regions Make fast and confident decisions and determine the best time to buy or sell with access to l Spot and contract price assessments including personalised alerts to notify you of changes l In-depth analysis and price history to help you track and understand price drivers and trends l Easy access to information with multiple delivery options

Analytics SolutionsICIS offers a unique combination of analytics tools designed to help you navigate and optimise opportunities in an ever-changing market making complex analytics simple for you Our solutions help you react quicker to market developments in a demand-led price-sensitive global marketplace enabling you to l Spot opportunities and minimise risk l Shape future strategy l Maintain a competitive advantage l Supplement your in-house analytics

Specialist ServicesThe global team of ICIS experts brings extensive knowledge of industry sectors through

Expand your knowledge to navigate complex markets more confidently

Get the latest insights into current issues and trends from a hand-picked selection of experts

Get tailored advice and guidance to address your companyrsquos key challenges

Industry NewsOur extensive global network of local experts report breaking news stories that impact chemical markets influence commodity prices and affect your daily business decisions Alerts and our one-stop platform keep you fully informed and support your planning with access to l Real-time news round-the-clock l Analysis and likely market impact l Production news and force majeures

Supply amp Demand DatabaseReceive an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical supply chain for over 100 petrochemical commodities Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacity production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040 ndash providing you with a long-term view of the rapidly changing petrochemical market The database enables you to l Determine the local or regional scenario in a global context to support your planning l Identify evaluate and optimise opportunities l Validate commercial and growth strategies l Identify and manage financial or investment risks

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SPECIALISED TRAINING INDUSTRY CONFERENCES BESPOKE CONSULTANCY

AROMATICSPARAXYLENE

ASIA PX FACES DOWNWARD PRESSURE AS SUPPLY LENGTHENS INTO H2By Samuel Wong

Asiarsquos paraxylene (PX) prices are likely to face downward pressure going into the second half of 2018 due to new capacities coming on stream with no additional downstream units to absorb the supply

A total of 205myear of new PX capacities will be added in the second half including PetroRabighrsquos 135m tonneyear unit in Saudi Arabia and Nghi Son Refinery and Petrochemicalrsquos 700000 tonneyear unit in Vietnam

Asiarsquos PX intermonth spread is currently at a backwardation of $3-4tonne down from $12-15tonne in the first quarter as market participants were gradually pricing in the additional supply PX supply

There are expectations that the market will flip into a contango once smooth operations are achieved at the new PX units

Among new PX capacities PetroRabighrsquos new PX unit is expected to achieve full operations from the third-quarter onward after suffering some technical hiccups in the second quarter

Nghi Son on the other hand is expected to start exporting cargoes from its new PX unit from the second-half of July according to market participants

Asia will be in oversupply of PX as the total capacity increase would require 31m tonnesyear of downstream purified terephthalic acid (PTA) capacities but no firm PTA start-ups are on tap in the next six months

Moreover Chinarsquos Fuhaichuang Petrochemical formerly Dragon Aromatics (Zhangzhou) is planning to resume operations at its idled complex in the third quarter this year after more than three years of shutdown

Its Zhangzhou complex consists of a 16m tonneyear PX plant and a 45m tonneyear downstream PTA plant which constitutes three 15m tonneyear lines two of which have resumed operations since late 2017

According to market participants the company is likely to restart the third PTA line once smooth operations at its PX unit is achieved

In India JBF Grouprsquos 125m tonneyear PTA unit is supposed to begin production in the third quarter of 2018 but the schedule is still fluid according to market players

The company has recently entered into a deal with existing investor KRR for the private equity firm to acquire a majority stake in certain company assets as the company enters into discussions to restructure its debt on 18 May

In Europe Indorama Ventures plans to start up an idled Portugal-based 700000 tonneyear PTA unit which it recently acquired in July The plant formerly known as Artlant PTA originally came on stream in 2012 but closed in 2014 for financial reasons and bar a brief period in operation was subsequently idled

Back to Quick Navigation | 09Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Thailandrsquos Indorama Ventures acquired Atlant PTA in the fourth quarter of 2017

Asian PX prices are currently above those of main feedstock naphtha by more than the breakeven level of $250tonne while PX production via feedstock isomer-xylene through the parex process and feedstock toluene through the toluene disproportionation (TDP) route have also remained economically viable

All these will mean that PX producers will maintain high operating rates at their existing plants

Spot sales have been increasing amid strong production across the region A southeast Asia-based producer is currently offering around 15000-20000 tonnesmonth of cargoes double to triple the monthly volumes it offered in the previous year

The price gap between PX and naphtha has narrowed to $315tonne in the second quarter falling from the peak of around $425tonne in end-February as the market started pricing in the expected increase in supply

In the first half of the year Asiarsquos PX production losses were estimated at 167m tonnes due to a heavy turnaround schedule

Negotiations for PX Asian Contract Price (ACP) failed for three consecutive months from April after successful monthly settlements in the first quarter ndash when producers and end-users were in agreement that supply was restricted by the turnarounds amid healthy demand in Asia

Back to Quick Navigation | 10Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian paraxylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 11Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Arbitrage economics for deep-sea materials into Asia has largely remained shut since the start of the year mainly due to a tightly supplied market in the US

However Asia does not need the supply from the US ndash which ships out 10000-15000 tonnes of supply to this region on a monthly basis ndash once the new PX units achieved smooth operations according to market participants

Toward the fourth quarter a tightening of supply may provide support to PX prices with several plants in the key China market due for turnaround

PX prices are also expected to track movement in the upstream crude and naphtha prices as well as downstream PTA futures values

AROMATICSSTYRENE MONOMER

ASIA SM UP ON LIMITED SUPPLY TIGHTNESS TO EASE IN H2By Deborah Lee

Asiarsquos styrene monomer (SM) market ndash supported in the first half of 2018 by tight supply ndash is expected to see more arbitrage cargoes from the US and Europe besides completion of turnarounds which may put pressure on prices for the rest of the year

Already April and May cargoes have been loaded from the US and have either found buyers or are likely to do so in South Korea

Furthermore Chinarsquos turnarounds will largely be over by end June with demand for imports expected to fall as domestic production returns to normal

A final anti-dumping duty (ADD) decision by China over SM imports from South Korea Taiwan and the US is also being closely watched by market participants

The China ministry of commerce is expected to announce its final results of its ADD probe in June

Prices are expected to come off in the second half of the year as a result of easing of supply and already there is a steep backwardation in the market with the JuneJuly spread at $65-85tonne

The CFR China marker started off at $1335tonne the start of the year and peaked at $156250tonne early June The SM assessment has since softened but remained above the $1400tonne level

They were largely supported in the first half because of limited arbitrage arrivals amid unplanned plant issues and scheduled turnarounds in Europe and the US while the CFR (cost amp freight) China market was hit by the ADD imposed on South Korean Taiwanese and US origin cargoes

Besides planned plant maintenance in the US and Europe unexpected issues at several plants disrupted production further

In France Totalrsquos 600000 tonneyear SM plant in Gonfreville was affected by an outage at the producerrsquos cracker in the same location early February

But the biggest impact was from CosMarrsquos unplanned shutdown caused by equipment failure due to the polymerization at its purification units

Production at its 118m tonneyear plant in Carville Louisiana resumed April 10 nearly three months after it was shut mid-January

The tight supply situation almost guaranteed that there would be no arbitrage cargoes from the US and Europe heading into Asia

Back to Quick Navigation | 12Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

But this was further secured by ADDs imposed on some of Chinarsquos key suppliers of SM as part of the Chinese authoritiesrsquo preliminary decision in February

This had greatly reduced options for the largest importer of SM cargoes in Asia

China which imported over 3m tonnes of SM in 2017 has had to turn to the Middle East southeast Asia and Japan to supplement cargoes it had received before from countries affected by ADD

Other macroeconomic factors boosted the CFR China assessment -- a stronger yuan rendered US dollar imports more competitive versus domestic cargoes for one

China also lowered VAT rates from 17 to 16 effective May 1 further bolstering interest in imported cargoes

Prices fell in end-February as some sellers offloaded cargoes due to an influx of arrivals

Concerns over end user demand emerged as the second quarter was expected to be a good demand season for SM and its derivatives but in reality buyers were slow to emerge deterred by high prices

In China in particular demand was slow to pick up after the Lunar New Year holiday because downstream producers were well stocked as operating rates were maintained during the typically low demand season in winter

This was in anticipation of rising SM prices due to the ADD probe

The additional spot cargoes in the market combined with lackluster demand pressured spot prices lower The CFR China assessment on 21 March fell to $1270tonne

As news of more turnarounds planned within China emerged domestic supply of SM was looking increasingly tight

With many plants due to be shut over April to June production was persistently lowered over the quarter and expectations of tight supply pushed the market higher again

Spot prices remained on an upswing as inventory levels slumped and prompt supply was limited

Stockpiles of SM in east China fell to a multi-year low as of 30 May at 37500 tonnes

Back to Quick Navigation | 13Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian styrene monomer (SM) markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 14Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Cargoes hitting Chinarsquos shores were not sufficient to meet the countryrsquos growing appetite for SM particularly as the Q3 manufacturing for exports season was fast approaching

Downstream producers however were struggling to pass on rising feedstock costs to their buyers

Thinning margins have led to some mulling lowering operating rates at its resin plants

Petrochemicals Analytics SolutionsOur new and enhanced petrochemical analytics and insight puts you in a stronger position so you can optimise your trades plans and strategies in order to secure a competitive advantage

ICIS is the only information provider to offer this unique combination of analytics tools as one subscription alongside pricing data and analysis

Live Supply Disruption TrackerPlant outages and maintenance for the next 12 months plus the impact of capacity changes

3 Pre-empt competition and capitalise on trades impacted by outages

3 Be aware of market shortages with a real-time view to manage risk and ensure security of stock

3 Negotiate better prices with other market players

Supply amp Demand OutlooksQuarterly global supply and demand review and outlook for key value chains and regions

3 Support your short-term strategy with upstream and downstream market sentiment and expectations for the current quarter at a regional level

3 Expand opportunities in international trade3 Understand at-a-glance the regional supply and

demand outlook across six key commodity chains

Price Drivers AnalyticsCross-commodity and cross-regional analysis of importexport parity substitution trends and feedstockdownstream spreads

3 Gain new context and negotiating tools in addition to ICIS price assessments

3 Pre-empt competition and spot opportunities with visual charts and impact commentaries

3 Reduce the time spent making manual calculations and spend more time on strategy and acting on market opportunities

4

360 view of the market l See the global market from

all anglesl Achieve better price

flexibilityl Enrich strategy plans with

validated quality datasets

Real-time information l Powered by 43000 plant

data in the ICIS Supply andDemand Database and 247global market coverage byICIS editors

l Information updated inreal time in line with ICISproduction news

Complex analytics made simple l Real-time visualisation with

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NEW

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AROMATICSTOLUENE

CHINA IMPORTS TO UNDERPIN ASIA TOLUENE MARKET IN H2 2018By Trixie Yap

Asiarsquos toluene market direction in the second half of this year will be determined by the buying activity from Chinese importers which has been the key factor influencing its prices so far in 2018

FOB (free on board) Korea prices which have been fluctuating in a wider-than-expected range for the past month closed at $760-785tonne in the week ended 1 June for June and July-loading parcels

The decreases at the close on 1 June marked the end of three weeksrsquo worth of stable-to-firm price trend

This followed weaker import demand from China for July which mainly stemmed from the ending of traders replenishing shore tank inventories at eastern ports such as Jiangsu

CFR (cost amp freight) China prices were in a sideways trend for most parts of early 2018 up to March at $690-765tonne

Prices only picked up after April and hit a peak of $835tonne CFR China after fluctuating in the $700-710tonne CFR China range for a few weeks

Unlike earlier expectations when market players were hoping for Chinese import demand to peak after the post early-March Lunar New Year period CFR China buying activity remained muted and only rose after May because of improved demand from the gasoline blenders

Blending demand received a boost because of lower gasoline production from state-owned refineries amid a spate of turnarounds in China ndash mainly in the eastern regions ndash starting end April to June

The better blending economics for toluene in early May particularly for the oil majors paved the way for demand as well

Back to Quick Navigation | 15Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Toluene-isomer xylenes spread on an ex-tank basis was wider with toluene being much more price friendly for gasoline production as compared to isomer xylene

With the 1 May implementation of a new online tax-filing system for oil and chemical products oil majors had no choice but to buy blend stocks themselves

Back to Quick Navigation | 16Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

instead of gasoline cargoes directly as the government was effectively making private gasoline blending activities unworkable as these blenders will not be able to potentially avoid tax payments via the paper filing system now

The presence of higher-than-expected inventories at east China main ports ndash stock levels hit a high of 76700 tonnes in early March ndash contributed further to the later timing of import demand Inventories only fell significantly after April (see chart above)

The only key issue hampering import demand from improving further was the

generally weak off taking activities from the downstream chemical sectors as isocynates benzoic acid benzyl chloride and other types of solvent products

The downstream demand was hampered because of low and unchanged operating rates because of stricter environmental regulations imposed by the government since second-half 2017

Looking ahead however the bleak demand situation for toluene from the chemical downstream sector could reverse soon starting August-September because of Wan Hua Chemicalrsquos new TDI plant start-up

The TDI plantsrsquo nameplate capacity is currently 300000 tonnesyear which could equate to around 160000 tonnesyear of toluene usage according to several market players

While this may not directly represent an increase in demand for CFR China import toluene cargoes it is likely to boost domestic toluene demand within north China particularly Shandong region and allow for potential arbitrage flows within the country

This in turn may support import parity of yuan-denominated ex-tank prices and allow for healthy distributor margins ndash if they consider to buy CFR China cargoes which is a key driver for majority of these import buyers

Market participants in China were quick to note also that supply increments ndash following at least three new plant start-ups this year ndash will outpace demand increments whichcould pose a problem in determining whichwill have a larger impact on import demandand prices

ldquoThe additional capacities may not be sold into the merchant market because there will still be captive usage since these producers are refineries with gasoline requirements and fulfilmentsrdquo one east China-based trader said

Ultimately it will be dependent on how the internal consumption for gasoline ndash of these new start-ups ndash will pan out leading up to the year-end

Changes in average operating rates of state-owned refineries due to turnarounds or outages will be another direction driver

Aside from China demand-supply fundamentals the other key price driver is the supply balance within Asia

Supply has been generally long between January and May owing to the stable operating plant rates and overall sufficient availability in southeast Asia a key net exporter within the region

Availability of northeast Asian cargoes was curtailed at some points in time ndash particularly in February and March ndashbecause of turnarounds

Back to Quick Navigation | 17Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 18Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

However supply has been steadily rising for cargoes loading in May and June ndash with the market seeing an additional of close to 30000 tonnes of product from South Korea alone ndash as some downstream plants had ongoing shutdown plans all the way till early July (see right)

All of these cargoes as expected are heading to China because of the opened arbitrage window for exports during the same time period

The increment in excess spot supply from South Korea ndash going forward ndash will be driven by downstream spreads for TDP operators since the benzene-toluene spreads have been narrowing consistently from March when the spreads hit a peak

The healthy spreads between toluene and xylenes (para and isomer) have been the only saving grace for the TDP market

ldquoBenzene demand-supply fundamentals are likely to continue remaining weak with increments in supply still expected from Middle East and Vietnam from June so that is going to still put pressure on TDP operators whether to run their unit with more toluene or less toluene [since they can adjust the amount of feedstock]rdquo one northeast Asian end-user said

ldquoBenzene demand-supply fundamentals are likely to continue remaining weak with increments in supply still expected from Middle East and Vietnam from June so that is going to still put pressure on TDP operators whether to run their unit with more toluene or less toluene [since they can adjust the amount of feedstock]rdquo one northeast Asian end-user said

There is also hope that supply will be curbed again in the autumn season ndash when several plants start their planned maintenances ndash to provide a temporary relief to the readily sufficient spot availability

Ultimately if Chinarsquos importing activity continues to be robust there will be no issues with them soaking up the excess supplies at any point of time

ldquoThe key issue is how much these buyers can procure and how long their buying activities can last but so far it has been very sporadic and capped to short time frames because of them being risk averserdquo one southeast Asian trader said

Back to Quick Navigation | 19Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian toluene markets

BASE OILSBASE OILS

ASIA MIDEAST BASE OILS FIRM IN H1 BUT SOME PULLBACK LIKELY IN H2By Jasmine Khoo amp Izham Ahmad

Asia base oils Group I SN150 and Group II 150N prices are expected to remain firm on persistently low supply whereas the heavy grades - Group I SN500 and Group II 500600N - could come under pressure on ample availability

Into the second half of the year base oils supply from Iran are expected to be stable with no known maintenance plans due over the following few months from June and that could add further pressure on prices amid the weak demand outlook

Only one Iranian refiner is due for a maintenance shutdown in the second half of the year possibly sometime in September according to market sources

In Group II like in Asia short supply of 150N and 500600N is expected to support prices in coming months but the Group II segment in the Middle East is a much smaller market for producers

Major Group II and III producers in Saudi Arabia Qatar Bahrain and UAE also continue to focus on their traditional markets outside of the Middle East due to stronger demand and higher margins

Brightstock remained largely stable for June in terms of pricing following deals done at parity with Mayrsquos levels but market players maintained a cautious stance towards brightstock pricing which would typically see downward pressure towards the end of the year

The winter season in parts of Asia would typically herald a period of slow cargo uptake for brightstock as transportation logistics get more challenging

As for Group III base oils northeast Asian-origin lots are expected to see support in spot prices from June as seen from healthy uptake among buyers amid short supply from regional suppliers

Similarly in the Middle East market Group I prices started the year on a firm note

Around mid-February SN500 prices traded up to $80750tonne FOB (free on board) Iran their highest levels since ICIS began tracking the data in November 2015

SN150 also traded their record highs about the same time hitting $72750tonne FOB Iran

These record highs were held until early May despite buyers at the time showing increasing resistance to the higher levels and the uncertainty that took hold of the market ahead of a deadline for the US to decide on whether it would remain in the Iran nuclear deal

On 8 May US president Donald Trump announced that the US will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal and re-impose sanctions on Tehran consequently driving up crude prices to new highs since late 2014

Iranrsquos base oils prices were largely stable in that week but market outlook has been clouded with uncertainties following the USrsquo decision to re-impose sanctions on the country

Group I SN500 prices were stable through the early half of May at $780-805tonne FOB Iran while Group I SN150 were holding at $710-745tonne FOB Iran since early-February according to ICIS data

Prices began to decline around mid-May when it became more apparent that the increased sanctions would cause at least some disruptions to business dealings with Iranian entities

Market players said they encountered difficulties in financial transactions with Iran and many financial institutions were reluctant to take on any dealings involving Iran-based businesses for fear of conflicting with the US sanctions

On the supply side market players in the UAE said there were sufficient cargoes built up over recent months and as such

there was less demand for further spot deals in Group I particularly with the threat of renewed sanctions

Mid-May also marked the start of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan which is a typically slow season for the Middle East

Certain manufacturing activities are reduced as factories observed shorter operating hours and as many workers took some vacation time as well

The Eid ul-Fitr long holidays followed the end of Ramadan in mid-June

Asiarsquos base oils market trends for certain widely-traded Group I grades snapped out of persistent uptrend in late April against a backdrop of increasingly squeezed buyersrsquo margins and waning demand

Steady gains in FOB Asia spot prices were recorded since September 2017 on the back of regional shortages as demand surpassed output

This was partly fuelled by natural disasters in the US when Hurricane Harvey disrupted between 20 and 25 of the countryrsquos refining capacity in August

The disruption to base oils production at some units led to increased appetite for deep-sea shipments from Asia to the US

In the current market SN500 prices registered the greatest drops among the ICIS assessed grades shedding slightly more than 12 of its spot pricing between 13 April and 25 May ICIS data showed

Market participants attributed the price dip to lackluster demand brought about by a supply overhang of domestically-produced SN400 in the local Chinese market

Competitive pricing of SN400 amid ample availability curtailed import appetite among China-based buyers for SN500 of Asian origin especially since some buyers were still holding on to sufficient stocks for the near term

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Brightstock prices also softened reflecting increasingly squeezed buyersrsquo margins following steep gains seen from 22 September 2017 to 23 March 2018 in FOB Asia export prices

Some buyers were also sitting on sufficient inventories from active procurement earlier in the year leading to waned demand

This led refiners and traders to cut offers to encourage cargo uptake for May shipment cargoes

Group II 150N and 500600N prices largely held up on the back of potential supply woes in the summer season amid scheduled shutdowns at major Asian refineries

Taiwanrsquos Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) is expected to conduct planned maintenance in July market sources said

This led market players to hold on to expectations of buoyed spot prices for Group II base oils in the near term though significant increase is not expected for certain grades such as 500600N amid ample spot availability in the region

Group III 4 and 6cst base oils largely continued their steady price uptrend reflecting short supply among key South Korean Group III suppliers

8cst base oils of northeast Asian origin amid comparatively greater availability than its lighter counterparts saw less gains in prices since the beginning of 2018

South Korean-origin Group III base oils prices were mostly buoyant despite an influx of Middle East-origin Group III base oils into the northeast Asian market since November 2017 as South Korean-origin Group III users adhered largely to using the same material due to formulation restrictions and related OEM approvals

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bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian base oils markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 21Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPURIFIED TEREPHTHALIC ACID (PTA)

ASIA PTA SUPPLY TO LENGTHEN IN H2 ON INDIA CHINA PLANT START-UPSBy Samuel Wong

Supply of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in Asia is expected to lengthen in the second half of 2018 as new capacities will start up in the major markets of India and China amid a slowdown in demand

Major plants would have resumed production after unplanned outages to ease the current global supply tightness that has been driving up Asian prices while demand typically weakens in the third quarter

Asian PTA prices may start to come under pressure as fresh supply will hit the markets when new major regional plants start production in the third quarter

ldquoMarket sentiment is currently pessimistic about the outlook however this can quickly change if we see a sudden uptick in downstream demandrdquo a China-based producer said

In India JBF Grouprsquos 125m tonneyear PTA unit in Mangalore is expected to start up in the third quarter although the schedule is still fluid according to several market participants

In China Fuhaichuang Petrochemical formerly known as Dragon Aromatics (Zhangzhou) is planning to resume operations at its complex in the third quarter of 2018 after a prolonged shutdown

Its petrochemical complex in Zhangzhou has a 45m tonneyear PTA plant comprisings three 15m tonneyear lines two of which have been in operation since end-2017 The company is likely to restart the third line once smooth operations at its upstream paraxylene (PX) unit at the site is achieved market players said

In Europe Indorama Ventures Portugal plans to start up in July an idled 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Sines Thailand-based Indorama Ventures Ltd acquired the

plant from Portuguese Artlant PTA in late 2017

All these factors should see the narrowing of the price gap between Chinarsquos import and domestic markets as early as July after widening steadily from March to May

As of 12 June the gap stood at $96tonne down from the peak of about $111tonne on 30 May

Asiarsquos PTA prices are currently steady at firm levels Regional end-users preferred to procure cargoes on a need-to basis and were not keen on building inventories

Future movement will depend on market conditions in the downstream polyester industry

The wide price gap in Chinarsquos import and domestic markets has been deterring Chinese buyers from tapping the international spot market for supplies since March while demand was healthy especially in the downstream polyethylene terephthalate (PET) markets

Tight global supply in the first half saw Asian producers shipping out cargoes to the Middle East as well as Europe which was hit by unplanned outages in Belgium and Poland in April

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In Europe BP Chemical on 15 April declared a force majeure at its Belgium PTA unit and a second force majeure on 17 May PKN Orlen on 23 April declared a force majeure at its Wloclawek PTA unit in Poland which was subsequently lifted on 2 May with spot cargoes from the plant limited until after a planned maintenance in SeptemberOctober 2018

Within Asia the southeastern region has had PTA plant outages and had to procure cargoes from the northeast in the preceding two months

Regional supply tightened further with the unexpected shutdown of Hanwha General Chemicalrsquos 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Daesan prompting a force majeure declaration on 21 May

In the first half of 2018 strong growth in demand in the downstream polyester markets in Asia particularly China supported the rally in PTA prices amid tight supply

Downstream polyester markets were enjoying positive margins keeping demand for feedstock PTA healthy

In the key China market operating rates at polyester units were higher compared with the previous year

The countryrsquos PTA production losses in January-June 2018 on the other hand were estimated at around 134m tonnes due to planned and unplanned outages

Asiarsquos PTA producers were largely enjoying healthy margins on the back of steady demand growth in the downstream polyester markets Firmer upstream energy

and feedstock PX prices have also buoyed PTA prices

In January to May 2018 Brent crude traded at $6692-7616bbl up by about 25 year

on year while PX prices were at $938-994tonne representing a 15 increase over the same period

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian purified terephthalic acid (PTA)) markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 23Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPOLYETHYLENE TEREPHTHALATE (PET)

ASIA PET TO REMAIN FIRM IN Q3 AS TIGHT SUPPLY SUPPORT PRICESBy Hazel Goh

Asian polyethylene terephthalate (PET) market is likely to remain firm in the third quarter on the back of tight supply a trend that has supported prices so far in 2018

Recently PET tight supply is a result of production cuts in Asia and Europe that have not had a clear estimated date of resuming normal operations

China Resources Packaging had cut production at its PET lines in Changzhou by 50 following notice from the government to reduce pollution in end-May It is not known for how long the production cuts will remain in place

In Europe there had been feedstock purified terephthalic acid (PTA) supply tightness leading to recent PET production cuts and force majeure by Novapet and JBF respectively

Many buyers had been purchasing on a need-to basis expecting that firm prices are unsustainable and will come down Subsequently they did not stock up cargoes ahead of the peak summer demand season for countries in the northern hemisphere

The reality turned out different and they had to accept higher prices as production cuts kept the supply tight

PET used to track feedstock price movements closely as it had been an oversupplied market and producers typically operate on thin margins

The oversupply situation changed and tightness was first felt in the third quarter of 2017 when plant closures by JBF RAK in the UAE and Belgium and by Mossi amp Ghisolfi (MampG) in the US Mexico and Brazil following financial tightness in the two PET-producing companies

Hurricane Harvey that hit the US in the third quarter led to further production cuts in the US

Back to Quick Navigation | 24Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 1

From then on supply remained tight as the plant under JBF RAK in the UAE and the former MampG plant in the US that had been acquired by Far Eastern remained shut for extended period of time even into 2018

Market players previously had concerns about where China will export its material when final anti-dumping duties (ADD) - heard to be at the same level as thepreliminary duties of 398-530 - wereimposed on its cargoes into Japan inJanuary

Japan was the top exporting destination for Chinese cargoes before the ADD following which the exports dropped drastically

While other producers such as Taiwanese southeast Asian Indian and South Korean producers sold more volumes into Japan Chinese makers sold to other markets that were relinquished by the other producers

Table 1 shows a significant difference between 2016 and 2017 in Chinarsquos export volumes to key destinations from the January-to-March period

Ranked by volume starting with largestvolume as 1

There is an ongoing anti-dumping duty (ADD) investigation by the US on PET cargoes from Brazil Pakistan Indonesia Taiwan and South Korea

The Commerce Department issued the preliminary dumping rates for Indonesia at 1316 South Korea at 881-10141 and Taiwan at 902-1189 in May Final determinations will be issued by 8 November

Even so some producers from the countries under investigation continued to receive buying enquiries from the US amid the current tight supply situation

There will be some upcoming new capacities expected in Q3 as shown in table 2 that may bring about a more balanced supply to meet the demand

The US plant acquired by Far Eastern is estimated to restart in June-July which should also ease the supply tightness

Even with the new capacities and plant restarts market participants think it is unlikely that PET market will return to the oversupply situation seen in the previous years

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Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian PET markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 25Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 2

Our English-language report coverage includes

Styrene MEG Propylene

BTX Methanol Base Oil

BPA PE MTBE

Phenol PP Mixed AromaticsAcetone Oxo-Alcohol

Trusted industryintelligence for Chinarsquoscommodity marketsDevelopments in Chinarsquos petrochemicals industrycontinue to affect the global marketplace It istherefore vital for domestic and internationalmarket players to keep track of changes withinthe country to know where opportunities lie

ICIS has long been recognised as a reliablesource of information our locally-based expertscompile reports and analyses in English tosupport industry participants dealing with Chinamarkets or seeking to trade or invest

Pricing informationOur pricing data provide key insights into pricetrends in China to support your short-termdecision-making negotiations and analyses

bull Import and export spot and contract pricesbull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity

and upstreamdownstream marketsbull Data on inventory levels and price marginsbull Plant and production news

Petrochemicals Analytics SolutionsProviding our customers with a 360-degree view of the Chinese market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker - real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for thenext 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics - key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock anddo wnstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlooks

Available for key chemical commodities

wwwiciscomchina

Discover how we can meet your market information needs

enquiryiciscom

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESMONOETHYLENE GLYCOL (MEG)

ASIA MEG TO SEE DEMAND TAPERING LOWER SUPPLY IN EARLY H2By Eric Su

The Asian monoethylene glycol (MEG) market could see demand slowing down from the end of June while supply will be reduced from a number of plant turnarounds

Inventories are expected to decline in June after offtake rates at Chinese main ports rose sharply in the last two weeks of May because of an uptick in demand from downstream polyester buyers

Demand for MEG is also expected to remain strong in the first half of June boosted by high polyester production rates of above 85 and modestly low inventory levels

A slowdown in demand may take place in the second half of June as the traditional manufacturing peak period nears its end in July

Meanwhile supply conditions could tighten because of the plant turnarounds in northeast Asia

However supply from the Middle East will likely resume to normal levels given that there were no further delay in shipments in May

MEG prices in Asia have registered year-on-year growth rates in the months to June this year

MEG prices have mostly hovered above $900tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China Main Port (CMP) while prices were mostly below $900tonne CFR CMP in 2017

Prices have been volatile in 2018 with major price swings seen on a near monthly basis since February

MEG prices in first quarter of 2018 continued the uptrend seen in the fourth quarter of 2017 rising to $1030tonne CFR CMP in early March from $922tonne CFR

CMP in late December as the higher-than-expected growth in downstream polyester fuelled bullish market sentiment

Polyester growth in 2017 was estimated at above 10 beating an originally bearish expectation of 2-3

A price downtrend was observed in March with the MEG weekly average price losing nearly 10 of its value to $929tonne CFR CMP by end-March

The price decline coincided with a sharp influx of imported cargoes which was likely a result of over-procurement in January

Back to Quick Navigation | 26Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

and February when prices were trending upwards

March 2018 import volumes rose to nearly 1m tonnes a record three-year high according to official China customs data

MEG prices rebounded in April rising by around 9 from end-March to $1014tonne CFR CMP by end-April ahead of the traditional peak period for the downstream polyester sector The average polyester production rate rose to above 85 during the period

MEG also achieved its to-date weekly peak of $1042tonne CFR CMP in the week ending 20 April

Supply tightness was also observed in the Chinese domestic market because of shipment delays from the Middle East and logistical issues at China main ports over the same period

The lack of availability of prompt cargoes also led to an atypical price spread between April and May delivery parcels

Normally the spread between arrived-at-port and far-term arrival cargoes is at $0-10tonne CFR CMP but this widened to $20-30tonne CFR CMP This drove concerns of sharp price adjustments in May once April deliveries were fulfilled

These concerns came true as MEG prices

began to slide in May MEG weekly prices stood at $928tonne CFR CMP in the last week of May falling from $1003tonne CFR CMP in early May

High inventory levels have also weighed on MEG prices Inventory levels were above 900000 tonnes from early May onward rising to 938000 tonnes by in late March Most market participants deemed inventory levels above 900000 tonnes to be high

The increase in inventory levels in May were largely attributed to the arrival of Middle East shipments which were previously due for arrival in April

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian MEG markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 27Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSETHYLENE

NE ASIA ETHYLENE H2 OUTLOOK HINGES ON NEW SUPPLY SM PLANTBy Yeow Pei Lin

Northeast (NE) Asiarsquos ethylene (C2) second-half 2018 outlook is uncertain as several crackers are scheduled for maintenance but such production losses could be offset by the start up of a new plant and cargoes from outside the region

More than 20 crackers in Asia are slated to undergo maintenance in 2018 with the estimated capacity losses totalling more than 185m tonnes Most of the turnarounds in the first half of the year were concentrated in Japan ndash a key exporter to China

However several more companies are to carry out turnarounds in June and the rest of the year

The impact on the regional balance will depend on the start-up progress of a new facility in South Korea and on whether the strong exports from southeast Asia and Europe in the first half of 2018 will continue

Shipments from Yeosu South Korea will start to slow down in August ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at complexes in that region

Exports will recover by December when Lotte Chemical brings on-stream an added capacity of 200000 tonnesyear at its Yeosu cracker

The facility will undergo an expansion during a turnaround from late September to October

Shipments from Ulsan another petrochemical cluster in South Korea will grow in the second half of 2018

Newcomer S-Oil is expected to begin commercial operations at its residue upgrading complex (RUC) in Onsan in the second half of June

The companyrsquos entire ethylene output of up

to around 200000 tonnesyear is intended for the merchant market as it does not have any downstream plants

Exports from southeast Asian producers will continue to be driven by the higher value from ethylene sales in the ethylene versus polyethylene (PE) trade-off

There will however be supply constraints

Four crackers in the region will undergo

maintenance and the affected producers include ExxonMobil and PTT Global Chemicals (PTTGC) that were regular exporters in the first half of 2018

Exports from Europe will likely be influenced by the performance of the PE sector

The outlook for the PE market in Europe is uncertain given the growing prospect of competitively-priced exports from the new US plants

Back to Quick Navigation | 28Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Ethylene costs in the US have been at low levels since early 2018 as production growth outpaces that for consumption

Since late 2017 about 3m tonnesyear of new ethylene capacity and about 35m tonnesyear of new PE capacity have started up in the US

The new crackers have been running well but several of the new PE plants struggled to reach full operating rates

Exports from Saudi Arabia are expected to be constrained by increased domestic consumption

Petro Rabigh announced in April that the last few plants in its Phase 2 project including a 75000 tonneyear ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) unit have started up

The companyrsquos ethylene exports could fall further in the second half of 2018 following the completion of its PE plant maintenance shutdowns earlier in the year

Chinarsquos import demand is poised for further growth when a new 260000 tonneyear styrene monomer (SM) plant starts up in the third quarter as planned

Anhui Haoyuan Chemical will be operating the unit in Fuyang Anhui on a standalone basis as its plans to build a methanol-to-olefin (MTO) plant have been put on hold amid high methanol prices

The plant will require around 78000 tonnes of ethylene annually to operate at maximum capacity

Based on the above factors it was not immediately clear if the ethylene prices in the second half will follow the volatile trend they displayed in the first five months of 2018

NE Asia spot ethylene prices were volatile from January to May as the impact of a heavy regional cracker turnaround schedule and strong Chinese demand was at times outweighed by strong exports from southeast Asia the Middle East and Europe

The market started the year at above a two and a half year high of $1415tonne CFR (cost amp freight) NE Asia in early January

Subsequent transacted prices fluctuated within a low $1200stonne to mid $1300stonne CFR NE Asia band in the five months ended 31 May

Prices in the first quarter were initially weighed down by ample supply from producers in the Middle East and Asia due to a series of PE plant shutdowns - both planned and unplanned

That was despite strong pre-Lunar New Year holiday restocking activities in China

Demand was bolstered by the start up of a 500000 tonneyear non-integrated SM plant and generally healthy downstream margins for producers outside the PE sector

End-users were also keen to build up their inventories because of the slow progress in their 2018 term contract discussions ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at facilities of key exporters in the region

In addition a major ethylene oxide (EO) maker was seeking more import cargoes following a disruption in supply from its upstream MTO unit The plant was shut twice between late November and the first half of February because of high feedstock methanol costs

The market recovered in early March in line with the start of the annual cracker turnaround season in northeast Asia where

scheduled capacity losses in 2018 will be overall higher than the previous year

That explained why the countryrsquos exports from January to April slumped by 14 year-on-year to 201274 tonnes

In late April northeast Asiarsquos spot prices fell again after a surprisingly large quantity of deep-sea spot cargoes were sold into Asia for delivery between the middle of May and the first half of June

There were at least 55000-60000 tonnes of cargoes from Europe in addition to 11000 tonnes of US supply for that delivery period Europe was in a long position because of derivative maintenance shutdowns and production problems

Continued strong exports from southeast Asia owing to downstream production issues and the weak performance of the linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) market contributed to the downbeat sentiment

The ample supply outweighed Chinarsquos robust import demand

Buying interest in China was strong for April and May arrival cargoes on the back

Back to Quick Navigation | 29Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

of healthy downstream margins for certain downstream markets such as SM EO and monoethylene glycol (MEG)

Ethylene buyers in China were also keen to book deep-sea cargoes to offset the expected regional production losses from cracker turnarounds

Prices rebounded quickly in mid-May

aided by a bullish SM market and reduced domestic supply

Some MTO operators lowered production in May as high feedstock methanol costs led to squeezed margins while a key producer in east China lowered its cracker run rates unexpectedly

Sharp increases in feedstock naphtha costs

which tracked gains on crude oil futures also helped set a floor to the earlier price declines

By early June spot ethylene prices had touched a 20-week high raising questions on whether the market will see similar price volatility in the second half of 2018

Producers will turn hawkish if the outlook for crude and naphtha markets remains upbeat

Back to Quick Navigation | 30Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSPROPYLENE

TIGHT NE ASIA PROPYLENE SUPPLY TO LIMIT H2 PRICE FLUCTUATIONSBy Joson Ng

Tight propylene (C3) supply in northeast Asia amid a heavy turnaround schedule in 2018 will continue supporting regional prices of the material into the second half

Sellers are likely to continue passing on firmer costs to buyers which are wary of October when heavy propylene production losses are expected

Buyersrsquo resistance in the key China market would keep any further increase in propylene prices in check with some downstream producers considering cutting output due to high feedstock costs

At the start of June propylene prices have weakened ending the strong general uptrend since end-March amid weakness in Chinarsquos domestic market as demand softened due to turnarounds at downstream polypropylene (PP) plants

However the downward pressure on regional prices may be temporary as overall supply in Asia is expected to be tight

In early June spot propylene prices in northeast Asia were about 9 higher from the start of 2018 according to ICIS data

The year started on a bullish note fuelled by a heavier cracker turnaround schedule compared with 2017 and higher premium levels concluded for contract cargoes

The uptrend was sustained into February due to restocking activities in various import markets in northeast Asia before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February

Before the holidays some South Korean producers were convinced the market will experience supply shortage as both GS Caltexrsquos fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity and Yeochun NCCrsquos (YNCC) cracker ndash which can produce 280000 tonnesyear of propylene ndash were due for maintenance in February through to April

But propylene prices surprisingly weakened from 9 February to end-March without demand support from Chinarsquos weak PP market which struggled through sluggish sales and high inventory after the countryrsquos week-long Lunar New Year holiday

A renewed wave of scheduled turnarounds at regional plants tightened supply and drove up propylene prices in April and May

In Taiwan Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) took its residue fluid catalytic

Back to Quick Navigation | 31Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

cracking (RFCC) unit with a 350000 tonneyear propylene capacity off stream from 1 March to mid-April while CPC Corp shut its 100000 tonneyear FCC unit on 10 April and restarted in early June

In South Korea GS Caltex also had a turnaround at its FCC unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity from 19 February to 5 April

SK Advanced shut its propane dehydrogenated (PDH) unit with 600000 tonneyear propylene capacity on 21 April to early May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian propylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 32Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

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ICIS price forecast reportsSupply demand and price trends at a glance

ICIS price forecast reports provide a clear view of prices and supply and demand trends for the next 12 months Packed with vital information the report includes everything you need to assess where the market is heading and the impact or opportunity that presents for your business

To find out more or take a trial visit wwwiciscompriceforecast

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ICIS price forecasts are now available on the Dashboard channel using the Price Forecast Window which will enable users to

n Chart the price forecast against the last (rolling) twelve months of related price history

n Plot the last 12 months to view forecast progression and ICIS forecast accuracy

n Convert data into different currencies and units and download this data into Excel in order to easily enter into your own calculations

How price forecast reports can help youn Understand the marketUse ICIS price forecast reports to understand where the market is heading and identify the risks and the opportunities for your business What are the major demand developments for your product n Safeguard commercial decisionsUse market information to make better-informed business decisions relating to supply and demand Learn about changes in market capacities What factors will affect supply for you n Budgeting and planningWhether you are planning how much you will be spending in the short-to medium or even long term use the price forecast reports to help assess future prices for your product What will the price of your product be in six monthsrsquo time

Price forecast reports currently

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Available as price forecast windows only

Polypropylene

Polyethylene

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StyrenePolystyrene

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Propylene

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3

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3

OLEFINSBUTADIENE

ASIA BD TO FLUCTUATE IN H2 AS SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE SHIFTSBy Helen Yan

Asiarsquos butadiene (BD) spot prices for July shipments are likely to face downward pressure but any price downtrend is likely to reverse when cracker turnarounds start to kick in from September onwards

BD prices are expected to be weighed down before seeing support again in the third quarter as the supply and demand balance shifts during this period

The fourth quarter will likely see support for BD prices although the increases may be tempered by resistance from the downstream synthetic rubber (SR) makers to any significant price hikes

The busy cracker turnaround season in September-November will likely see supply tightening at the same time that demand is expected to pick up during this period

Several crackers and BD units including South Korearsquos Lotte Chemical LG Chem and Chinarsquos Shanghai Secco and Maoming Petrochemical are scheduled to shut during

the September to November time frame

In the near term BD spot prices are likely to continue to trend lower as demand wanes while supply at the same time is expected to lengthen due to an influx of deep-sea cargoes and regional cracker restarts

More than 15000 tonnes of deep-sea cargoes from EU are expected to arrive in Asia in June and July at the same time that crackers in Asia including Indiarsquos Haldia Petrochemical and Indonesiarsquos Chandra Asri resume their production following their maintenance shutdowns

On 8 June spot prices fell to $1725tonne CFR (cost amp freight) northeast (NE) Asia the second consecutive week of decline after spiralling upwards in the two months since early April

BD spot prices had increased by more than 40 since early April peaking at $1800tonne CFR NE Asia on 25 May

Strong demand from derivative acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) makers which were running their plants at optimal rates had bolstered the BD price upsurge during this period

However derivative styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) and polybutadiene rubber (PBR) producers the key consumers of BD cut their production output given the continued erosion in margins

Several major SBR and PBR producers said their margins had fallen into negative territory and retreated from the BD spot market in June

Chinese spot appetite in particular tapered off as domestic BD prices were lower compared with the US dollar-denominated import prices

In China Hangzhou Zhechen Jilin Petrochemical Zhejiang Transfar and Shen Hua Chemical were some of the SBR and PBR plants that are shut for maintenance in June and July

Several SBR and PBR plants in Taiwan and South Korea were also running at lower rates following the 40 BD price spike in the two months from early April to end-May

In South Korea major SR producer Korea Kumho Petrochemical PC was running its SBR and PBR plants at reduced rates

Back to Quick Navigation | 33Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian butadiene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 34Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Similarly Taiwanrsquos TSRC also cut the production output of its SBR and PBR plants

The outlook for the fourth quarter is expected to see a different turn of events with SBR and PBR plants resuming their production and ramping up their operating rates while supply during the last quarter is expected to tighten from the heavy cracker turnaround season

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYETHYLENE (PE)

SOUTHEAST ASIA PE MARKET FACES LONGER H2 SUPPLY WEAK DEMANDBy Felita Widjaja

Southeast Asiarsquos polyethylene (PE) market may be facing longer supply in the second half hinging on how the US-China trade spat plays out amid the regionrsquos weakening demand for imports

Global PE trade flows will be affected should China the biggest importer of spot PE cargoes in the world decide to impose retaliatory 25 tariff on US cargoes

Southeast Asia as an alternative buying region might be hard pressed to absorb additional supply from the US where massive PE capacities recently started up which were meant to cater to huge Chinese demand

Around 5m tonnes of additional US PE capacities are expected from several major projects including those in the pipeline to start up within the second half of 2018

China primarily imports PE cargoes from Asia and the Middle East while the US is its sixth leading PE supplier in 2017

ldquoEventually more substantial and regular volume of US [PE] cargoes are expected to be traded in Asia in the second half of the year as we have yet to see them in the first half of this yearrdquo said a regional trader

Any changes in trade flows would pose challenges to US suppliers in the short term as they would need to revamp their logistics and distribution channels to redirect cargoes to other markets

Suppliers from the Middle East meanwhile might take the opportunity to supply more cargoes to China and would mean fewer volumes available to the southeast Asian market

The Middle East is southeast Asiarsquos major PE supplier

Demand for PE imports in southeast Asia has been weak amid lower prices in

Back to Quick Navigation | 35Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

the domestic markets as in the case of Thailand

ldquoThai traders are not keen to import as local prices are more competitive so they do not have the margin to sell the imported cargoes in local market Only some converters who need specific cargoes continue to importrdquo said a local Thai trader

Malaysia and Indonesia with predominantly Muslim populations have seen market activity slow down since mid-May when the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan started Ramadan ends with the Eid ul-Fitr holiday on 15 June

The Indonesian government has declared a longer Eid-ul Fitr holiday this year from 11-20 June

Markets in Singapore and the Philippines will be closed for the mid-June holiday as well

With supply expected to become long some market players expect regional PE prices in July and August to ease from

June with restocking activities expected to kick in towards the end of the third quarter

In the first half of 2018 southeast Asiarsquos average prices for commodity PE were largely stable to firm owing to suppliersrsquo relatively comfortable-to-tight supply for most of the period

At the start of June high density polyethylene (HDPE) film grade prices averaged $1395tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia while linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) film were at $1210tonne CFR SE Asia and $1265tonne CFR SE Asia respectively according to ICIS data

Prices had spiked in the first quarter as suppliers were holding comfortable-to-tight inventory as several regional producers have scheduled turnarounds at their plants in March Production issues and shutdowns in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia also limited availability of imports to southeast Asia during this period

Supply for HDPE film was particularly tight as some producers from the Middle East as well as Asia switched their focus into making HDPE pipe grade amid robust demand and better netbacks

The price uptrend across most PE grades could not be sustained in the second quarter although prices remained relatively stable-to-firm

The depreciation of local currencies in southeast Asia against the US dollar in most of the second quarter was also curbing overall demand for imports A weaker currency makes US dollar-denominated imports expensive

ldquoIndonesian buyers have not been buying much cargoes as the market slowed down during Ramadan and also because of weak rupiah which led the central bank to increase interest rate to limit the depreciationrdquo said a regional producer

CHINA PE IMPORTS TO STAY STRONG AMID DOMESTIC PLANT TURNAROUNDS By Angie Li

Chinarsquos polyethylene (PE) imports are expected to remain strong for the rest of the year after posting record volumes in January to April 2018 amid scheduled turnarounds at domestic facilities

Buyers in China have been accumulating imported PE cargoes as these were priced lower compared futures prices since the start of the year

More cargoes will be available to China as new capacities in the US are expected to boost production

For the month of May the countryrsquos PE imports are projected to reach 12m tonnes higher than the monthly average in the first four months of 2018

In January to April 2018 its PE imports volumes totaled 447m tonnes up by 12 from the previous corresponding period according to industry sources

The import volumes were making up for the production losses in the domestic market due to scheduled turnarounds

On 1 June low density PE (LDPE) imports were assessed at $1155-1180tonne linear low density PE (LLDPE) stood at $1150-1170tonne while high density PE (HDPE) film products were at $1340-1400tonne according to ICIS data

The prices have increased 15-62 from end-March but the gains came in lower than market playersrsquo expectations considering the heavy production loss due to turnarounds from April

Back to Quick Navigation | 36Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

An estimated 500000 tonnes are expected to be shaved in the second quarter due to scheduled maintenance at domestic facilities according ICIS data

ldquoWe thought the hefty plant turnarounds in the second quarter should lead to a surge in PE prices but the LDPE and LLDPE prices were less than satisfactory although HDPE prices [were] highrdquo said an east China-based trader referring to both the import and domestic PE prices

Strong imports amid hedging activities bloated the total supply in China in January to April to 998m tonnes up by 8 from the previous corresponding period with supply of LDPE and LLDPE up by 14 and 8 respectively market sources said

Imports of HDPE inched up by 2 over the same period given the gradersquos comparatively higher prices compared with LLDPE and LDPE

Increased availability due to recent capacity expansions and start-ups in Asia the Middle East also fuels Chinarsquos appetite for import cargoes

In the first quarter of 2018 additional cargoes from Saudi Arabia were mostly from Sadara Chemical which started up its 750000 tonneyear swing plant and 350000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Al Jubail during late 2016 and early 2017 respectively

Cargoes of Iran origin augmented the total volume from the UAE as market players try to go around the financial sanctions on Tehran Kordestan Petrochemicalrsquos 300000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Iran came on stream in March 2017

UAErsquos Borouge has also ramped up pipe and HDPE film exports to China during the period according to a supplier in the Middle East

Meanwhile PE imports from Singapore surged 38 year on year while those from India more than doubled to 127000 tonnes according to China Customs data

The ban on waste plastics implemented in China in the year also bolstered imports of virgin PE Some waste plastics processed overseas and then re-entered the market as virgin products but these volumes were limited

Last year China has imported 194m tonnes of PE waste plastics while

volumes in 2018 will be negligible with the implemention of the ban

Chinarsquos PE production this year is expected to increase by around 7 to about 17m tonnes in 2018 with imports projected to grow by 102 to around 13m tonnes according to a source from state-owned petrochemical giant PetroChina

Domestic demand for PE on the other hand is forecast to grow by 8 this year mainly from the packaging and pipe markets

Chinarsquos ongoing campaign to switch to using gas for power generation instead of coal is expected to continue boosting demand for PE gas pipes this year

The packaging industry will also drive up PE consumption underpinned by growth in electronic commerce Chinarsquos express delivery volumes reached 137bn packages during January-April 2018 based on data from the recent China Express Industry Development Conference in May

Back to Quick Navigation | 37Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 38Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

By Jonathan Lopez

ICIS NewsThe leading news service for real-time ground breaking news and analysis on the global petrochemicals markets

The ICIS News services give you unrivalled access to the most in-depth stories impacting the petrochemicals markets influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions

Our team of global editors are reporting around the clock to bring you the latest news and analysis so that you get the full picture of market and pricing developments first providing you with invaluable foresight to take advantage of every opportunity and to stay ahead of your competitors

With ICIS News you will be the first to read

Breaking news on the chemical markets that will impact your business

News on market moves deals and announcements that will affect your organisation

Force majeures closures and developments that influence your commodity prices

Expert analysis on industry trends and hot topics ndash know whatrsquos happening and why

Searchable archive with over 14 million articles from the past 10 years

Chemical Business News Base (CBNB) is a premium resource available on ICIS News It provides you with an extensive external source of upstream and downstream petrochemical news in summarised snapshots so you can quickly and easily get the latest updates on whatrsquos important to you

CBNB offers readers

Fast and consistent coverage on news facts figures from the upstream and downstream petrochemicals industry

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User-friendly search functionality to find articles most relevant to you from around the globe

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ICB features include

In-depth insight into chemical price changes and their impact on the markets

Understand the detail behind the headline news stories

Find out about supply amp demand trends and the factors impacting them

Get the complete picture of the chemical markets ndash all in one e-magazine

Easy access via e-magazine and premium magazine website

Find out more wwwiciscomnews

ICIS News offers access to additional sources including the ICIS Chemical Business Magazine and Chemical Business News Base (CBNB)

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYPROPYLENE (PP)

SE ASIA PP PRICES MAY COME UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 AS SUPPLY LENGTHENSBy Leanne Tan

Southeast Asiarsquos polypropylene (PP) market may come under pressure in the second half of the year on account of lengthening regional supply and weak downstream demand

Spot prices have been on the rise for most of May buoyed by bullish sentiment in the Chinese market and firm upstream feedstock costs

Margins for PP makers have been lower on average compared with levels in the previous year

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refinery amp Petrochemicals is scheduled to start up its 400000 tonneyear PP production unit in the third quarter The project was initially scheduled to start up in the first quarter of 2018

While domestic demand will continue to outstrip local production the countryrsquos reliance on imports may be diminished when the new plant starts up

Converters in the country have been opting to keep inventories lean in the short term amid expectations that prices may eventually weaken when more domestic supply becomes available

ldquoBuyers donrsquot want to buy too much import cargoes now not just because prices are high but also because there will be more locally-produced materials very soonrdquo a Vietnamese trader said

In Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan is expected to start commercial production at its expanded PP facility in Pasir Gudang in June or July The plantrsquos capacity will be raised by 200000 tonnesyear from 400000 tonnesyear

Import availabilities from South Korea are expected to lengthen in the medium-to-long term with S-Oil expected to complete an olefin downstream complex (ODC) at its Onsan refinery in Ulsan which will include a

405000 tonneyear PP capacity

On the demand front weakness is likely to persist in the second half with converters and end-users likely to continue buying spot cargoes on a hand-to-mouth basis

Indonesiarsquos demand in particular has been below expectations since the start of 2018 and this is likely to continue in the second half of the year according to market players

Back to Quick Navigation | 39Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Some players said import demand for dutiable cargoes may increase in the second half of the year as this is typically when the government issues duty exemption facilities

The duty exemption facilities are issued on a yearly basis which enable converters to import some PP volumes without extra cost

In Malaysia the removal of the 6 goods and services tax (GST) so far has had no immediate impact on the PP market although there are some expectations the move could potentially boost demand in the consumer market further down the road

In Vietnam demand for PP flat yarn has entered a seasonal lull from May to early July and will not pick up until August when the summer harvest begins

PP is widely used in the manufacture of woven sacks (for rice sacks) flexible packaging carpets household appliances and automotive parts

Spot PP prices in southeast Asia have been an uptrend for most of the first half

The PP market begun the year on a bullish note with spot prices surging by almost 10 over the course of two months all-origins PP flat yarn prices peaked at $1295tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia on 2 March

Healthy demand in China helped to provide support to spot prices in southeast Asia in the first quarter with a tight global spot supply leading to further price escalations

Some suppliers pulled back from the southeast Asian spot market to capitalise on better netbacks in other countries including Japan and Pakistan leading to further curtailed spot availability in southeast Asia

The market rally started to lose steam in early March amid subdued demand and a build-up of domestic inventories in China after the Lunar New Year holidays

The bearish sentiment soon spilled over into southeast Asia with Chinese suppliers pushing some volumes into southeast Asia amid an open arbitrage window

Vietnam remains the market of choice for Chinese exporters and PP import prices in the country plummeted as the result of the lengthened spot availability

However the bearish run was short-lived and prices soon bottomed out in early April

Bullish momentum in the upstream crude and naphtha markets propelled spot prices of polymers higher

Despite lacklustre downstream demand price hikes in April and May were commonplace as producers sought higher asking prices in view of narrower margins

TIGHT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT CHINA PP MARKET DESPITE WEAK DEMANDBy Dora Xue

Tight supply would buoy up Chinarsquos polypropylene (PP) prices in the near term despite weak downstream demand

The market is expecting heavy production losses following recent unexpected outages at five domestic facilities from May and scheduled turnarounds at other plants

In the week ended on 1 June domestic prices for PP flat yarn in east China were assessed at Chinese yuan (CNY) 9075tonne after a steady increase from early April according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos import prices for the same material stood at $1245tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China largely tracking movement in the domestic market over the past two months according to ICIS data

The strong PP prices have also started to deter buyers from purchasing more spot cargoes

ldquoPP prices are too high We donrsquot want to store too much in our warehouserdquo a buyer said

Downstream demand typically goes on a lull in June and July but any downward pressure on prices will be negated by a further tightening of supply as major plants will be taken off line for maintenance

ldquoWhen the maintenance season finishes in late June [PP] prices may start to go downrdquo a trader said

Demand is considered weakest at Qingdao in the eastern Shandong province due to government-mandated production cuts and logistics restrictions ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (SCO Summit) on 9-10 June

As of 1 June the combined polyolefin inventories of Chinese petrochemical majors Sinopec and PetroChina have declined back to normal levels of 700000 tonnes from a high of 1m tonnes in early March market sources said

Import supply to China may not improve in the short term as suppliers still deem other

Back to Quick Navigation | 40Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

Back to Quick Navigation | 43Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 6: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

The spot east-west arbitrage window has not stayed open throughout the first half of 2018 hampering shipping of cargoes to the US South Korea and Japan are key exporters of benzene to the US

ldquoThe arbitrage window was largely open in April but became not viable in Mayrdquo said a South Korea-based producer

Benzene is a base chemical used to make other chemicals such as SM phenol and caprolactam

In the second quarter suppliers in the region were grappling with excess inventories and a lack of outlets for their cargoes

Most key buyers in China Taiwan and southeast Asia have sufficient supplies with little appetite for spot cargoes Lackluster demand caused the CFR (cost amp freight) China prices to fall below FOB (free on board) Korea prices according to ICIS data

Premium for spot parcels into Taiwan (CFR) also declined to the low single digits over FOB Korea in the first half of May as buyers had little spot interest

The situation was just as dismal in southeast Asia where FOB SE Asia prices traded at a discount of $35tonne to FOB Korea at one point in the second half of April

In India FOB India trades were at a discount of more than $50tonne to FOB Korea as demand waned

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian benzene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 06Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

AROMATICSXYLENES

ASIA MX LIKELY TO BE UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 2018 ON WEAK DEMANDBy Deborah Lee

Asian mixed xylenes are likely to face headwinds in H2 2018 on weaker demand from the gasoline blending sector as well as increasing length in downstream markets

Demand for xylenes as a gasoline blending component in China has softened due to lower crude oil prices

Brent futures have come off from a recent peak of over $80bbl to hover at around $75-7750bbl range in June breaking an uptrend seen earlier in the year

Prices of octane boosters typically rise when crude is on an upswing as gasoline margins are expected to increase

Adding to the bleak outlook for gasoline blending materials stockpiles of blending gasoline within China are plentiful sources said

The isomer-grade xylene (IX) cargoes are mainly used as a feedstock for downstream paraxylene (PX) but upcoming capacity will keep a lid on spot IX prices

The new PX production facilities are largely integrated and do not require additional procurement of IX

Already the spread between PX and IX has narrowed from $180-190tonne to $140-150tonne with $120-140tonne being the breakeven point for producers

Earlier in the first half of 2018 strong China demand and firm crude had pushed mixed xylene prices up

Fundamentally demand from China pushed prices higher as the countryrsquos imports of IX had been persistently higher since the end of 2017

Demand for IX as a gasoline blending component was one major factor for the increase in appetite for the material while

another was that an integrated plant in China was purchasing spot IX in the market as a feedstock for its PX plant due to issues with its own IX cargoes

Margins for PX had remained at healthy levels despite the strength in the IX market keeping buying interest in IX as a feedstock healthy

Concerns remained over Chinarsquos new tax policy aimed to reduce tax evasion for gasoline blenders which was originally planned to begin 1 March but the impact was tempered by the clear uptrend in crude futures as well as a strong Chinese yuan

Strength in the yuan helped boost demand for imports as US dollar cargoes were more competitive as a result

Buyers at the same time sought IX cargoes over solvent-grade xylene (SX) on concerns that Chinese authorities would implement an additional consumption tax on mixed aromatics which shares the same HS code as SX There has yet to be an official announcement on the additional consumption tax

Further exacerbating the situation was tight supply with a Japanese producer was scheduled to be shut from June to August for maintenance greatly reducing supply of IX in the region

But the spike in spot prices sparked concerns that demand was unsustainable at that point -- gasoline blending margins were unappealing and stockpiles of blended gasoline in China were high

In May the sharp increase in IX prices eroded PX margins as well adding to concerns that buying interest was not sufficient to keep the market discussions at such high levels

Prices slipped after peaking at $867tonne on 10 May

This was offset when Chinarsquos Maoming Petrochemical successfully started up and achieved on-spec cargoes at its phase II aromatics unit in Guangdong on 20 May The plant is able is produce 400000 tonnesyear of IX

With the new plant adding to domestic supply in China the prospect of import demand was looking dim

Back to Quick Navigation | 07Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Domestic prices of IX in east China were now cheaper than imported prices the CFR northeast Asia price now commanding a small premium to the import parity of local spot discussions

With gasoline blending margins down and ample cheaper substitutes available demand for SX has also taken a hit

But supply remained tight for SX in China with buying interest strong in recent weeks although buyers have lowered bids in line with the fall in the domestic market

Inventory levels have recovered from just 900 tonnes in the middle of May and continue to hover around 5000 tonnes In 2017 weekly SX stockpiles in east China averaged 17172 tonnes

The supply situation was unlikely to ease with production of SX in the region limited due to increasing reliance on lighter feeds such as LPG

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian mixed xylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 08Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Pricing IntelligenceAccess independent price assessments that meet IOSCOrsquos PRA Principles and are widely trusted and used as benchmarks in the industry ICIS coverage is unrivalled with pricing data and information for over 180 commodities across all key regions Make fast and confident decisions and determine the best time to buy or sell with access to l Spot and contract price assessments including personalised alerts to notify you of changes l In-depth analysis and price history to help you track and understand price drivers and trends l Easy access to information with multiple delivery options

Analytics SolutionsICIS offers a unique combination of analytics tools designed to help you navigate and optimise opportunities in an ever-changing market making complex analytics simple for you Our solutions help you react quicker to market developments in a demand-led price-sensitive global marketplace enabling you to l Spot opportunities and minimise risk l Shape future strategy l Maintain a competitive advantage l Supplement your in-house analytics

Specialist ServicesThe global team of ICIS experts brings extensive knowledge of industry sectors through

Expand your knowledge to navigate complex markets more confidently

Get the latest insights into current issues and trends from a hand-picked selection of experts

Get tailored advice and guidance to address your companyrsquos key challenges

Industry NewsOur extensive global network of local experts report breaking news stories that impact chemical markets influence commodity prices and affect your daily business decisions Alerts and our one-stop platform keep you fully informed and support your planning with access to l Real-time news round-the-clock l Analysis and likely market impact l Production news and force majeures

Supply amp Demand DatabaseReceive an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical supply chain for over 100 petrochemical commodities Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacity production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040 ndash providing you with a long-term view of the rapidly changing petrochemical market The database enables you to l Determine the local or regional scenario in a global context to support your planning l Identify evaluate and optimise opportunities l Validate commercial and growth strategies l Identify and manage financial or investment risks

FIND OUT MORE

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FIND OUT MORE

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Critical market data tools and expertise

SPECIALISED TRAINING INDUSTRY CONFERENCES BESPOKE CONSULTANCY

AROMATICSPARAXYLENE

ASIA PX FACES DOWNWARD PRESSURE AS SUPPLY LENGTHENS INTO H2By Samuel Wong

Asiarsquos paraxylene (PX) prices are likely to face downward pressure going into the second half of 2018 due to new capacities coming on stream with no additional downstream units to absorb the supply

A total of 205myear of new PX capacities will be added in the second half including PetroRabighrsquos 135m tonneyear unit in Saudi Arabia and Nghi Son Refinery and Petrochemicalrsquos 700000 tonneyear unit in Vietnam

Asiarsquos PX intermonth spread is currently at a backwardation of $3-4tonne down from $12-15tonne in the first quarter as market participants were gradually pricing in the additional supply PX supply

There are expectations that the market will flip into a contango once smooth operations are achieved at the new PX units

Among new PX capacities PetroRabighrsquos new PX unit is expected to achieve full operations from the third-quarter onward after suffering some technical hiccups in the second quarter

Nghi Son on the other hand is expected to start exporting cargoes from its new PX unit from the second-half of July according to market participants

Asia will be in oversupply of PX as the total capacity increase would require 31m tonnesyear of downstream purified terephthalic acid (PTA) capacities but no firm PTA start-ups are on tap in the next six months

Moreover Chinarsquos Fuhaichuang Petrochemical formerly Dragon Aromatics (Zhangzhou) is planning to resume operations at its idled complex in the third quarter this year after more than three years of shutdown

Its Zhangzhou complex consists of a 16m tonneyear PX plant and a 45m tonneyear downstream PTA plant which constitutes three 15m tonneyear lines two of which have resumed operations since late 2017

According to market participants the company is likely to restart the third PTA line once smooth operations at its PX unit is achieved

In India JBF Grouprsquos 125m tonneyear PTA unit is supposed to begin production in the third quarter of 2018 but the schedule is still fluid according to market players

The company has recently entered into a deal with existing investor KRR for the private equity firm to acquire a majority stake in certain company assets as the company enters into discussions to restructure its debt on 18 May

In Europe Indorama Ventures plans to start up an idled Portugal-based 700000 tonneyear PTA unit which it recently acquired in July The plant formerly known as Artlant PTA originally came on stream in 2012 but closed in 2014 for financial reasons and bar a brief period in operation was subsequently idled

Back to Quick Navigation | 09Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Thailandrsquos Indorama Ventures acquired Atlant PTA in the fourth quarter of 2017

Asian PX prices are currently above those of main feedstock naphtha by more than the breakeven level of $250tonne while PX production via feedstock isomer-xylene through the parex process and feedstock toluene through the toluene disproportionation (TDP) route have also remained economically viable

All these will mean that PX producers will maintain high operating rates at their existing plants

Spot sales have been increasing amid strong production across the region A southeast Asia-based producer is currently offering around 15000-20000 tonnesmonth of cargoes double to triple the monthly volumes it offered in the previous year

The price gap between PX and naphtha has narrowed to $315tonne in the second quarter falling from the peak of around $425tonne in end-February as the market started pricing in the expected increase in supply

In the first half of the year Asiarsquos PX production losses were estimated at 167m tonnes due to a heavy turnaround schedule

Negotiations for PX Asian Contract Price (ACP) failed for three consecutive months from April after successful monthly settlements in the first quarter ndash when producers and end-users were in agreement that supply was restricted by the turnarounds amid healthy demand in Asia

Back to Quick Navigation | 10Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian paraxylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 11Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Arbitrage economics for deep-sea materials into Asia has largely remained shut since the start of the year mainly due to a tightly supplied market in the US

However Asia does not need the supply from the US ndash which ships out 10000-15000 tonnes of supply to this region on a monthly basis ndash once the new PX units achieved smooth operations according to market participants

Toward the fourth quarter a tightening of supply may provide support to PX prices with several plants in the key China market due for turnaround

PX prices are also expected to track movement in the upstream crude and naphtha prices as well as downstream PTA futures values

AROMATICSSTYRENE MONOMER

ASIA SM UP ON LIMITED SUPPLY TIGHTNESS TO EASE IN H2By Deborah Lee

Asiarsquos styrene monomer (SM) market ndash supported in the first half of 2018 by tight supply ndash is expected to see more arbitrage cargoes from the US and Europe besides completion of turnarounds which may put pressure on prices for the rest of the year

Already April and May cargoes have been loaded from the US and have either found buyers or are likely to do so in South Korea

Furthermore Chinarsquos turnarounds will largely be over by end June with demand for imports expected to fall as domestic production returns to normal

A final anti-dumping duty (ADD) decision by China over SM imports from South Korea Taiwan and the US is also being closely watched by market participants

The China ministry of commerce is expected to announce its final results of its ADD probe in June

Prices are expected to come off in the second half of the year as a result of easing of supply and already there is a steep backwardation in the market with the JuneJuly spread at $65-85tonne

The CFR China marker started off at $1335tonne the start of the year and peaked at $156250tonne early June The SM assessment has since softened but remained above the $1400tonne level

They were largely supported in the first half because of limited arbitrage arrivals amid unplanned plant issues and scheduled turnarounds in Europe and the US while the CFR (cost amp freight) China market was hit by the ADD imposed on South Korean Taiwanese and US origin cargoes

Besides planned plant maintenance in the US and Europe unexpected issues at several plants disrupted production further

In France Totalrsquos 600000 tonneyear SM plant in Gonfreville was affected by an outage at the producerrsquos cracker in the same location early February

But the biggest impact was from CosMarrsquos unplanned shutdown caused by equipment failure due to the polymerization at its purification units

Production at its 118m tonneyear plant in Carville Louisiana resumed April 10 nearly three months after it was shut mid-January

The tight supply situation almost guaranteed that there would be no arbitrage cargoes from the US and Europe heading into Asia

Back to Quick Navigation | 12Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

But this was further secured by ADDs imposed on some of Chinarsquos key suppliers of SM as part of the Chinese authoritiesrsquo preliminary decision in February

This had greatly reduced options for the largest importer of SM cargoes in Asia

China which imported over 3m tonnes of SM in 2017 has had to turn to the Middle East southeast Asia and Japan to supplement cargoes it had received before from countries affected by ADD

Other macroeconomic factors boosted the CFR China assessment -- a stronger yuan rendered US dollar imports more competitive versus domestic cargoes for one

China also lowered VAT rates from 17 to 16 effective May 1 further bolstering interest in imported cargoes

Prices fell in end-February as some sellers offloaded cargoes due to an influx of arrivals

Concerns over end user demand emerged as the second quarter was expected to be a good demand season for SM and its derivatives but in reality buyers were slow to emerge deterred by high prices

In China in particular demand was slow to pick up after the Lunar New Year holiday because downstream producers were well stocked as operating rates were maintained during the typically low demand season in winter

This was in anticipation of rising SM prices due to the ADD probe

The additional spot cargoes in the market combined with lackluster demand pressured spot prices lower The CFR China assessment on 21 March fell to $1270tonne

As news of more turnarounds planned within China emerged domestic supply of SM was looking increasingly tight

With many plants due to be shut over April to June production was persistently lowered over the quarter and expectations of tight supply pushed the market higher again

Spot prices remained on an upswing as inventory levels slumped and prompt supply was limited

Stockpiles of SM in east China fell to a multi-year low as of 30 May at 37500 tonnes

Back to Quick Navigation | 13Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian styrene monomer (SM) markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 14Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Cargoes hitting Chinarsquos shores were not sufficient to meet the countryrsquos growing appetite for SM particularly as the Q3 manufacturing for exports season was fast approaching

Downstream producers however were struggling to pass on rising feedstock costs to their buyers

Thinning margins have led to some mulling lowering operating rates at its resin plants

Petrochemicals Analytics SolutionsOur new and enhanced petrochemical analytics and insight puts you in a stronger position so you can optimise your trades plans and strategies in order to secure a competitive advantage

ICIS is the only information provider to offer this unique combination of analytics tools as one subscription alongside pricing data and analysis

Live Supply Disruption TrackerPlant outages and maintenance for the next 12 months plus the impact of capacity changes

3 Pre-empt competition and capitalise on trades impacted by outages

3 Be aware of market shortages with a real-time view to manage risk and ensure security of stock

3 Negotiate better prices with other market players

Supply amp Demand OutlooksQuarterly global supply and demand review and outlook for key value chains and regions

3 Support your short-term strategy with upstream and downstream market sentiment and expectations for the current quarter at a regional level

3 Expand opportunities in international trade3 Understand at-a-glance the regional supply and

demand outlook across six key commodity chains

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AROMATICSTOLUENE

CHINA IMPORTS TO UNDERPIN ASIA TOLUENE MARKET IN H2 2018By Trixie Yap

Asiarsquos toluene market direction in the second half of this year will be determined by the buying activity from Chinese importers which has been the key factor influencing its prices so far in 2018

FOB (free on board) Korea prices which have been fluctuating in a wider-than-expected range for the past month closed at $760-785tonne in the week ended 1 June for June and July-loading parcels

The decreases at the close on 1 June marked the end of three weeksrsquo worth of stable-to-firm price trend

This followed weaker import demand from China for July which mainly stemmed from the ending of traders replenishing shore tank inventories at eastern ports such as Jiangsu

CFR (cost amp freight) China prices were in a sideways trend for most parts of early 2018 up to March at $690-765tonne

Prices only picked up after April and hit a peak of $835tonne CFR China after fluctuating in the $700-710tonne CFR China range for a few weeks

Unlike earlier expectations when market players were hoping for Chinese import demand to peak after the post early-March Lunar New Year period CFR China buying activity remained muted and only rose after May because of improved demand from the gasoline blenders

Blending demand received a boost because of lower gasoline production from state-owned refineries amid a spate of turnarounds in China ndash mainly in the eastern regions ndash starting end April to June

The better blending economics for toluene in early May particularly for the oil majors paved the way for demand as well

Back to Quick Navigation | 15Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Toluene-isomer xylenes spread on an ex-tank basis was wider with toluene being much more price friendly for gasoline production as compared to isomer xylene

With the 1 May implementation of a new online tax-filing system for oil and chemical products oil majors had no choice but to buy blend stocks themselves

Back to Quick Navigation | 16Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

instead of gasoline cargoes directly as the government was effectively making private gasoline blending activities unworkable as these blenders will not be able to potentially avoid tax payments via the paper filing system now

The presence of higher-than-expected inventories at east China main ports ndash stock levels hit a high of 76700 tonnes in early March ndash contributed further to the later timing of import demand Inventories only fell significantly after April (see chart above)

The only key issue hampering import demand from improving further was the

generally weak off taking activities from the downstream chemical sectors as isocynates benzoic acid benzyl chloride and other types of solvent products

The downstream demand was hampered because of low and unchanged operating rates because of stricter environmental regulations imposed by the government since second-half 2017

Looking ahead however the bleak demand situation for toluene from the chemical downstream sector could reverse soon starting August-September because of Wan Hua Chemicalrsquos new TDI plant start-up

The TDI plantsrsquo nameplate capacity is currently 300000 tonnesyear which could equate to around 160000 tonnesyear of toluene usage according to several market players

While this may not directly represent an increase in demand for CFR China import toluene cargoes it is likely to boost domestic toluene demand within north China particularly Shandong region and allow for potential arbitrage flows within the country

This in turn may support import parity of yuan-denominated ex-tank prices and allow for healthy distributor margins ndash if they consider to buy CFR China cargoes which is a key driver for majority of these import buyers

Market participants in China were quick to note also that supply increments ndash following at least three new plant start-ups this year ndash will outpace demand increments whichcould pose a problem in determining whichwill have a larger impact on import demandand prices

ldquoThe additional capacities may not be sold into the merchant market because there will still be captive usage since these producers are refineries with gasoline requirements and fulfilmentsrdquo one east China-based trader said

Ultimately it will be dependent on how the internal consumption for gasoline ndash of these new start-ups ndash will pan out leading up to the year-end

Changes in average operating rates of state-owned refineries due to turnarounds or outages will be another direction driver

Aside from China demand-supply fundamentals the other key price driver is the supply balance within Asia

Supply has been generally long between January and May owing to the stable operating plant rates and overall sufficient availability in southeast Asia a key net exporter within the region

Availability of northeast Asian cargoes was curtailed at some points in time ndash particularly in February and March ndashbecause of turnarounds

Back to Quick Navigation | 17Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 18Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

However supply has been steadily rising for cargoes loading in May and June ndash with the market seeing an additional of close to 30000 tonnes of product from South Korea alone ndash as some downstream plants had ongoing shutdown plans all the way till early July (see right)

All of these cargoes as expected are heading to China because of the opened arbitrage window for exports during the same time period

The increment in excess spot supply from South Korea ndash going forward ndash will be driven by downstream spreads for TDP operators since the benzene-toluene spreads have been narrowing consistently from March when the spreads hit a peak

The healthy spreads between toluene and xylenes (para and isomer) have been the only saving grace for the TDP market

ldquoBenzene demand-supply fundamentals are likely to continue remaining weak with increments in supply still expected from Middle East and Vietnam from June so that is going to still put pressure on TDP operators whether to run their unit with more toluene or less toluene [since they can adjust the amount of feedstock]rdquo one northeast Asian end-user said

ldquoBenzene demand-supply fundamentals are likely to continue remaining weak with increments in supply still expected from Middle East and Vietnam from June so that is going to still put pressure on TDP operators whether to run their unit with more toluene or less toluene [since they can adjust the amount of feedstock]rdquo one northeast Asian end-user said

There is also hope that supply will be curbed again in the autumn season ndash when several plants start their planned maintenances ndash to provide a temporary relief to the readily sufficient spot availability

Ultimately if Chinarsquos importing activity continues to be robust there will be no issues with them soaking up the excess supplies at any point of time

ldquoThe key issue is how much these buyers can procure and how long their buying activities can last but so far it has been very sporadic and capped to short time frames because of them being risk averserdquo one southeast Asian trader said

Back to Quick Navigation | 19Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

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PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian toluene markets

BASE OILSBASE OILS

ASIA MIDEAST BASE OILS FIRM IN H1 BUT SOME PULLBACK LIKELY IN H2By Jasmine Khoo amp Izham Ahmad

Asia base oils Group I SN150 and Group II 150N prices are expected to remain firm on persistently low supply whereas the heavy grades - Group I SN500 and Group II 500600N - could come under pressure on ample availability

Into the second half of the year base oils supply from Iran are expected to be stable with no known maintenance plans due over the following few months from June and that could add further pressure on prices amid the weak demand outlook

Only one Iranian refiner is due for a maintenance shutdown in the second half of the year possibly sometime in September according to market sources

In Group II like in Asia short supply of 150N and 500600N is expected to support prices in coming months but the Group II segment in the Middle East is a much smaller market for producers

Major Group II and III producers in Saudi Arabia Qatar Bahrain and UAE also continue to focus on their traditional markets outside of the Middle East due to stronger demand and higher margins

Brightstock remained largely stable for June in terms of pricing following deals done at parity with Mayrsquos levels but market players maintained a cautious stance towards brightstock pricing which would typically see downward pressure towards the end of the year

The winter season in parts of Asia would typically herald a period of slow cargo uptake for brightstock as transportation logistics get more challenging

As for Group III base oils northeast Asian-origin lots are expected to see support in spot prices from June as seen from healthy uptake among buyers amid short supply from regional suppliers

Similarly in the Middle East market Group I prices started the year on a firm note

Around mid-February SN500 prices traded up to $80750tonne FOB (free on board) Iran their highest levels since ICIS began tracking the data in November 2015

SN150 also traded their record highs about the same time hitting $72750tonne FOB Iran

These record highs were held until early May despite buyers at the time showing increasing resistance to the higher levels and the uncertainty that took hold of the market ahead of a deadline for the US to decide on whether it would remain in the Iran nuclear deal

On 8 May US president Donald Trump announced that the US will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal and re-impose sanctions on Tehran consequently driving up crude prices to new highs since late 2014

Iranrsquos base oils prices were largely stable in that week but market outlook has been clouded with uncertainties following the USrsquo decision to re-impose sanctions on the country

Group I SN500 prices were stable through the early half of May at $780-805tonne FOB Iran while Group I SN150 were holding at $710-745tonne FOB Iran since early-February according to ICIS data

Prices began to decline around mid-May when it became more apparent that the increased sanctions would cause at least some disruptions to business dealings with Iranian entities

Market players said they encountered difficulties in financial transactions with Iran and many financial institutions were reluctant to take on any dealings involving Iran-based businesses for fear of conflicting with the US sanctions

On the supply side market players in the UAE said there were sufficient cargoes built up over recent months and as such

there was less demand for further spot deals in Group I particularly with the threat of renewed sanctions

Mid-May also marked the start of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan which is a typically slow season for the Middle East

Certain manufacturing activities are reduced as factories observed shorter operating hours and as many workers took some vacation time as well

The Eid ul-Fitr long holidays followed the end of Ramadan in mid-June

Asiarsquos base oils market trends for certain widely-traded Group I grades snapped out of persistent uptrend in late April against a backdrop of increasingly squeezed buyersrsquo margins and waning demand

Steady gains in FOB Asia spot prices were recorded since September 2017 on the back of regional shortages as demand surpassed output

This was partly fuelled by natural disasters in the US when Hurricane Harvey disrupted between 20 and 25 of the countryrsquos refining capacity in August

The disruption to base oils production at some units led to increased appetite for deep-sea shipments from Asia to the US

In the current market SN500 prices registered the greatest drops among the ICIS assessed grades shedding slightly more than 12 of its spot pricing between 13 April and 25 May ICIS data showed

Market participants attributed the price dip to lackluster demand brought about by a supply overhang of domestically-produced SN400 in the local Chinese market

Competitive pricing of SN400 amid ample availability curtailed import appetite among China-based buyers for SN500 of Asian origin especially since some buyers were still holding on to sufficient stocks for the near term

Back to Quick Navigation | 20Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Brightstock prices also softened reflecting increasingly squeezed buyersrsquo margins following steep gains seen from 22 September 2017 to 23 March 2018 in FOB Asia export prices

Some buyers were also sitting on sufficient inventories from active procurement earlier in the year leading to waned demand

This led refiners and traders to cut offers to encourage cargo uptake for May shipment cargoes

Group II 150N and 500600N prices largely held up on the back of potential supply woes in the summer season amid scheduled shutdowns at major Asian refineries

Taiwanrsquos Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) is expected to conduct planned maintenance in July market sources said

This led market players to hold on to expectations of buoyed spot prices for Group II base oils in the near term though significant increase is not expected for certain grades such as 500600N amid ample spot availability in the region

Group III 4 and 6cst base oils largely continued their steady price uptrend reflecting short supply among key South Korean Group III suppliers

8cst base oils of northeast Asian origin amid comparatively greater availability than its lighter counterparts saw less gains in prices since the beginning of 2018

South Korean-origin Group III base oils prices were mostly buoyant despite an influx of Middle East-origin Group III base oils into the northeast Asian market since November 2017 as South Korean-origin Group III users adhered largely to using the same material due to formulation restrictions and related OEM approvals

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PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian base oils markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 21Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPURIFIED TEREPHTHALIC ACID (PTA)

ASIA PTA SUPPLY TO LENGTHEN IN H2 ON INDIA CHINA PLANT START-UPSBy Samuel Wong

Supply of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in Asia is expected to lengthen in the second half of 2018 as new capacities will start up in the major markets of India and China amid a slowdown in demand

Major plants would have resumed production after unplanned outages to ease the current global supply tightness that has been driving up Asian prices while demand typically weakens in the third quarter

Asian PTA prices may start to come under pressure as fresh supply will hit the markets when new major regional plants start production in the third quarter

ldquoMarket sentiment is currently pessimistic about the outlook however this can quickly change if we see a sudden uptick in downstream demandrdquo a China-based producer said

In India JBF Grouprsquos 125m tonneyear PTA unit in Mangalore is expected to start up in the third quarter although the schedule is still fluid according to several market participants

In China Fuhaichuang Petrochemical formerly known as Dragon Aromatics (Zhangzhou) is planning to resume operations at its complex in the third quarter of 2018 after a prolonged shutdown

Its petrochemical complex in Zhangzhou has a 45m tonneyear PTA plant comprisings three 15m tonneyear lines two of which have been in operation since end-2017 The company is likely to restart the third line once smooth operations at its upstream paraxylene (PX) unit at the site is achieved market players said

In Europe Indorama Ventures Portugal plans to start up in July an idled 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Sines Thailand-based Indorama Ventures Ltd acquired the

plant from Portuguese Artlant PTA in late 2017

All these factors should see the narrowing of the price gap between Chinarsquos import and domestic markets as early as July after widening steadily from March to May

As of 12 June the gap stood at $96tonne down from the peak of about $111tonne on 30 May

Asiarsquos PTA prices are currently steady at firm levels Regional end-users preferred to procure cargoes on a need-to basis and were not keen on building inventories

Future movement will depend on market conditions in the downstream polyester industry

The wide price gap in Chinarsquos import and domestic markets has been deterring Chinese buyers from tapping the international spot market for supplies since March while demand was healthy especially in the downstream polyethylene terephthalate (PET) markets

Tight global supply in the first half saw Asian producers shipping out cargoes to the Middle East as well as Europe which was hit by unplanned outages in Belgium and Poland in April

Back to Quick Navigation | 22Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

In Europe BP Chemical on 15 April declared a force majeure at its Belgium PTA unit and a second force majeure on 17 May PKN Orlen on 23 April declared a force majeure at its Wloclawek PTA unit in Poland which was subsequently lifted on 2 May with spot cargoes from the plant limited until after a planned maintenance in SeptemberOctober 2018

Within Asia the southeastern region has had PTA plant outages and had to procure cargoes from the northeast in the preceding two months

Regional supply tightened further with the unexpected shutdown of Hanwha General Chemicalrsquos 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Daesan prompting a force majeure declaration on 21 May

In the first half of 2018 strong growth in demand in the downstream polyester markets in Asia particularly China supported the rally in PTA prices amid tight supply

Downstream polyester markets were enjoying positive margins keeping demand for feedstock PTA healthy

In the key China market operating rates at polyester units were higher compared with the previous year

The countryrsquos PTA production losses in January-June 2018 on the other hand were estimated at around 134m tonnes due to planned and unplanned outages

Asiarsquos PTA producers were largely enjoying healthy margins on the back of steady demand growth in the downstream polyester markets Firmer upstream energy

and feedstock PX prices have also buoyed PTA prices

In January to May 2018 Brent crude traded at $6692-7616bbl up by about 25 year

on year while PX prices were at $938-994tonne representing a 15 increase over the same period

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian purified terephthalic acid (PTA)) markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 23Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPOLYETHYLENE TEREPHTHALATE (PET)

ASIA PET TO REMAIN FIRM IN Q3 AS TIGHT SUPPLY SUPPORT PRICESBy Hazel Goh

Asian polyethylene terephthalate (PET) market is likely to remain firm in the third quarter on the back of tight supply a trend that has supported prices so far in 2018

Recently PET tight supply is a result of production cuts in Asia and Europe that have not had a clear estimated date of resuming normal operations

China Resources Packaging had cut production at its PET lines in Changzhou by 50 following notice from the government to reduce pollution in end-May It is not known for how long the production cuts will remain in place

In Europe there had been feedstock purified terephthalic acid (PTA) supply tightness leading to recent PET production cuts and force majeure by Novapet and JBF respectively

Many buyers had been purchasing on a need-to basis expecting that firm prices are unsustainable and will come down Subsequently they did not stock up cargoes ahead of the peak summer demand season for countries in the northern hemisphere

The reality turned out different and they had to accept higher prices as production cuts kept the supply tight

PET used to track feedstock price movements closely as it had been an oversupplied market and producers typically operate on thin margins

The oversupply situation changed and tightness was first felt in the third quarter of 2017 when plant closures by JBF RAK in the UAE and Belgium and by Mossi amp Ghisolfi (MampG) in the US Mexico and Brazil following financial tightness in the two PET-producing companies

Hurricane Harvey that hit the US in the third quarter led to further production cuts in the US

Back to Quick Navigation | 24Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 1

From then on supply remained tight as the plant under JBF RAK in the UAE and the former MampG plant in the US that had been acquired by Far Eastern remained shut for extended period of time even into 2018

Market players previously had concerns about where China will export its material when final anti-dumping duties (ADD) - heard to be at the same level as thepreliminary duties of 398-530 - wereimposed on its cargoes into Japan inJanuary

Japan was the top exporting destination for Chinese cargoes before the ADD following which the exports dropped drastically

While other producers such as Taiwanese southeast Asian Indian and South Korean producers sold more volumes into Japan Chinese makers sold to other markets that were relinquished by the other producers

Table 1 shows a significant difference between 2016 and 2017 in Chinarsquos export volumes to key destinations from the January-to-March period

Ranked by volume starting with largestvolume as 1

There is an ongoing anti-dumping duty (ADD) investigation by the US on PET cargoes from Brazil Pakistan Indonesia Taiwan and South Korea

The Commerce Department issued the preliminary dumping rates for Indonesia at 1316 South Korea at 881-10141 and Taiwan at 902-1189 in May Final determinations will be issued by 8 November

Even so some producers from the countries under investigation continued to receive buying enquiries from the US amid the current tight supply situation

There will be some upcoming new capacities expected in Q3 as shown in table 2 that may bring about a more balanced supply to meet the demand

The US plant acquired by Far Eastern is estimated to restart in June-July which should also ease the supply tightness

Even with the new capacities and plant restarts market participants think it is unlikely that PET market will return to the oversupply situation seen in the previous years

Request your free sample report

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Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian PET markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 25Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 2

Our English-language report coverage includes

Styrene MEG Propylene

BTX Methanol Base Oil

BPA PE MTBE

Phenol PP Mixed AromaticsAcetone Oxo-Alcohol

Trusted industryintelligence for Chinarsquoscommodity marketsDevelopments in Chinarsquos petrochemicals industrycontinue to affect the global marketplace It istherefore vital for domestic and internationalmarket players to keep track of changes withinthe country to know where opportunities lie

ICIS has long been recognised as a reliablesource of information our locally-based expertscompile reports and analyses in English tosupport industry participants dealing with Chinamarkets or seeking to trade or invest

Pricing informationOur pricing data provide key insights into pricetrends in China to support your short-termdecision-making negotiations and analyses

bull Import and export spot and contract pricesbull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity

and upstreamdownstream marketsbull Data on inventory levels and price marginsbull Plant and production news

Petrochemicals Analytics SolutionsProviding our customers with a 360-degree view of the Chinese market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker - real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for thenext 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics - key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock anddo wnstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlooks

Available for key chemical commodities

wwwiciscomchina

Discover how we can meet your market information needs

enquiryiciscom

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESMONOETHYLENE GLYCOL (MEG)

ASIA MEG TO SEE DEMAND TAPERING LOWER SUPPLY IN EARLY H2By Eric Su

The Asian monoethylene glycol (MEG) market could see demand slowing down from the end of June while supply will be reduced from a number of plant turnarounds

Inventories are expected to decline in June after offtake rates at Chinese main ports rose sharply in the last two weeks of May because of an uptick in demand from downstream polyester buyers

Demand for MEG is also expected to remain strong in the first half of June boosted by high polyester production rates of above 85 and modestly low inventory levels

A slowdown in demand may take place in the second half of June as the traditional manufacturing peak period nears its end in July

Meanwhile supply conditions could tighten because of the plant turnarounds in northeast Asia

However supply from the Middle East will likely resume to normal levels given that there were no further delay in shipments in May

MEG prices in Asia have registered year-on-year growth rates in the months to June this year

MEG prices have mostly hovered above $900tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China Main Port (CMP) while prices were mostly below $900tonne CFR CMP in 2017

Prices have been volatile in 2018 with major price swings seen on a near monthly basis since February

MEG prices in first quarter of 2018 continued the uptrend seen in the fourth quarter of 2017 rising to $1030tonne CFR CMP in early March from $922tonne CFR

CMP in late December as the higher-than-expected growth in downstream polyester fuelled bullish market sentiment

Polyester growth in 2017 was estimated at above 10 beating an originally bearish expectation of 2-3

A price downtrend was observed in March with the MEG weekly average price losing nearly 10 of its value to $929tonne CFR CMP by end-March

The price decline coincided with a sharp influx of imported cargoes which was likely a result of over-procurement in January

Back to Quick Navigation | 26Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

and February when prices were trending upwards

March 2018 import volumes rose to nearly 1m tonnes a record three-year high according to official China customs data

MEG prices rebounded in April rising by around 9 from end-March to $1014tonne CFR CMP by end-April ahead of the traditional peak period for the downstream polyester sector The average polyester production rate rose to above 85 during the period

MEG also achieved its to-date weekly peak of $1042tonne CFR CMP in the week ending 20 April

Supply tightness was also observed in the Chinese domestic market because of shipment delays from the Middle East and logistical issues at China main ports over the same period

The lack of availability of prompt cargoes also led to an atypical price spread between April and May delivery parcels

Normally the spread between arrived-at-port and far-term arrival cargoes is at $0-10tonne CFR CMP but this widened to $20-30tonne CFR CMP This drove concerns of sharp price adjustments in May once April deliveries were fulfilled

These concerns came true as MEG prices

began to slide in May MEG weekly prices stood at $928tonne CFR CMP in the last week of May falling from $1003tonne CFR CMP in early May

High inventory levels have also weighed on MEG prices Inventory levels were above 900000 tonnes from early May onward rising to 938000 tonnes by in late March Most market participants deemed inventory levels above 900000 tonnes to be high

The increase in inventory levels in May were largely attributed to the arrival of Middle East shipments which were previously due for arrival in April

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian MEG markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 27Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSETHYLENE

NE ASIA ETHYLENE H2 OUTLOOK HINGES ON NEW SUPPLY SM PLANTBy Yeow Pei Lin

Northeast (NE) Asiarsquos ethylene (C2) second-half 2018 outlook is uncertain as several crackers are scheduled for maintenance but such production losses could be offset by the start up of a new plant and cargoes from outside the region

More than 20 crackers in Asia are slated to undergo maintenance in 2018 with the estimated capacity losses totalling more than 185m tonnes Most of the turnarounds in the first half of the year were concentrated in Japan ndash a key exporter to China

However several more companies are to carry out turnarounds in June and the rest of the year

The impact on the regional balance will depend on the start-up progress of a new facility in South Korea and on whether the strong exports from southeast Asia and Europe in the first half of 2018 will continue

Shipments from Yeosu South Korea will start to slow down in August ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at complexes in that region

Exports will recover by December when Lotte Chemical brings on-stream an added capacity of 200000 tonnesyear at its Yeosu cracker

The facility will undergo an expansion during a turnaround from late September to October

Shipments from Ulsan another petrochemical cluster in South Korea will grow in the second half of 2018

Newcomer S-Oil is expected to begin commercial operations at its residue upgrading complex (RUC) in Onsan in the second half of June

The companyrsquos entire ethylene output of up

to around 200000 tonnesyear is intended for the merchant market as it does not have any downstream plants

Exports from southeast Asian producers will continue to be driven by the higher value from ethylene sales in the ethylene versus polyethylene (PE) trade-off

There will however be supply constraints

Four crackers in the region will undergo

maintenance and the affected producers include ExxonMobil and PTT Global Chemicals (PTTGC) that were regular exporters in the first half of 2018

Exports from Europe will likely be influenced by the performance of the PE sector

The outlook for the PE market in Europe is uncertain given the growing prospect of competitively-priced exports from the new US plants

Back to Quick Navigation | 28Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Ethylene costs in the US have been at low levels since early 2018 as production growth outpaces that for consumption

Since late 2017 about 3m tonnesyear of new ethylene capacity and about 35m tonnesyear of new PE capacity have started up in the US

The new crackers have been running well but several of the new PE plants struggled to reach full operating rates

Exports from Saudi Arabia are expected to be constrained by increased domestic consumption

Petro Rabigh announced in April that the last few plants in its Phase 2 project including a 75000 tonneyear ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) unit have started up

The companyrsquos ethylene exports could fall further in the second half of 2018 following the completion of its PE plant maintenance shutdowns earlier in the year

Chinarsquos import demand is poised for further growth when a new 260000 tonneyear styrene monomer (SM) plant starts up in the third quarter as planned

Anhui Haoyuan Chemical will be operating the unit in Fuyang Anhui on a standalone basis as its plans to build a methanol-to-olefin (MTO) plant have been put on hold amid high methanol prices

The plant will require around 78000 tonnes of ethylene annually to operate at maximum capacity

Based on the above factors it was not immediately clear if the ethylene prices in the second half will follow the volatile trend they displayed in the first five months of 2018

NE Asia spot ethylene prices were volatile from January to May as the impact of a heavy regional cracker turnaround schedule and strong Chinese demand was at times outweighed by strong exports from southeast Asia the Middle East and Europe

The market started the year at above a two and a half year high of $1415tonne CFR (cost amp freight) NE Asia in early January

Subsequent transacted prices fluctuated within a low $1200stonne to mid $1300stonne CFR NE Asia band in the five months ended 31 May

Prices in the first quarter were initially weighed down by ample supply from producers in the Middle East and Asia due to a series of PE plant shutdowns - both planned and unplanned

That was despite strong pre-Lunar New Year holiday restocking activities in China

Demand was bolstered by the start up of a 500000 tonneyear non-integrated SM plant and generally healthy downstream margins for producers outside the PE sector

End-users were also keen to build up their inventories because of the slow progress in their 2018 term contract discussions ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at facilities of key exporters in the region

In addition a major ethylene oxide (EO) maker was seeking more import cargoes following a disruption in supply from its upstream MTO unit The plant was shut twice between late November and the first half of February because of high feedstock methanol costs

The market recovered in early March in line with the start of the annual cracker turnaround season in northeast Asia where

scheduled capacity losses in 2018 will be overall higher than the previous year

That explained why the countryrsquos exports from January to April slumped by 14 year-on-year to 201274 tonnes

In late April northeast Asiarsquos spot prices fell again after a surprisingly large quantity of deep-sea spot cargoes were sold into Asia for delivery between the middle of May and the first half of June

There were at least 55000-60000 tonnes of cargoes from Europe in addition to 11000 tonnes of US supply for that delivery period Europe was in a long position because of derivative maintenance shutdowns and production problems

Continued strong exports from southeast Asia owing to downstream production issues and the weak performance of the linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) market contributed to the downbeat sentiment

The ample supply outweighed Chinarsquos robust import demand

Buying interest in China was strong for April and May arrival cargoes on the back

Back to Quick Navigation | 29Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

of healthy downstream margins for certain downstream markets such as SM EO and monoethylene glycol (MEG)

Ethylene buyers in China were also keen to book deep-sea cargoes to offset the expected regional production losses from cracker turnarounds

Prices rebounded quickly in mid-May

aided by a bullish SM market and reduced domestic supply

Some MTO operators lowered production in May as high feedstock methanol costs led to squeezed margins while a key producer in east China lowered its cracker run rates unexpectedly

Sharp increases in feedstock naphtha costs

which tracked gains on crude oil futures also helped set a floor to the earlier price declines

By early June spot ethylene prices had touched a 20-week high raising questions on whether the market will see similar price volatility in the second half of 2018

Producers will turn hawkish if the outlook for crude and naphtha markets remains upbeat

Back to Quick Navigation | 30Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSPROPYLENE

TIGHT NE ASIA PROPYLENE SUPPLY TO LIMIT H2 PRICE FLUCTUATIONSBy Joson Ng

Tight propylene (C3) supply in northeast Asia amid a heavy turnaround schedule in 2018 will continue supporting regional prices of the material into the second half

Sellers are likely to continue passing on firmer costs to buyers which are wary of October when heavy propylene production losses are expected

Buyersrsquo resistance in the key China market would keep any further increase in propylene prices in check with some downstream producers considering cutting output due to high feedstock costs

At the start of June propylene prices have weakened ending the strong general uptrend since end-March amid weakness in Chinarsquos domestic market as demand softened due to turnarounds at downstream polypropylene (PP) plants

However the downward pressure on regional prices may be temporary as overall supply in Asia is expected to be tight

In early June spot propylene prices in northeast Asia were about 9 higher from the start of 2018 according to ICIS data

The year started on a bullish note fuelled by a heavier cracker turnaround schedule compared with 2017 and higher premium levels concluded for contract cargoes

The uptrend was sustained into February due to restocking activities in various import markets in northeast Asia before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February

Before the holidays some South Korean producers were convinced the market will experience supply shortage as both GS Caltexrsquos fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity and Yeochun NCCrsquos (YNCC) cracker ndash which can produce 280000 tonnesyear of propylene ndash were due for maintenance in February through to April

But propylene prices surprisingly weakened from 9 February to end-March without demand support from Chinarsquos weak PP market which struggled through sluggish sales and high inventory after the countryrsquos week-long Lunar New Year holiday

A renewed wave of scheduled turnarounds at regional plants tightened supply and drove up propylene prices in April and May

In Taiwan Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) took its residue fluid catalytic

Back to Quick Navigation | 31Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

cracking (RFCC) unit with a 350000 tonneyear propylene capacity off stream from 1 March to mid-April while CPC Corp shut its 100000 tonneyear FCC unit on 10 April and restarted in early June

In South Korea GS Caltex also had a turnaround at its FCC unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity from 19 February to 5 April

SK Advanced shut its propane dehydrogenated (PDH) unit with 600000 tonneyear propylene capacity on 21 April to early May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian propylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 32Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

To talk to someone about price forecast reports call the numbers below or email us at salesukiciscomAsia-Pacific Europe Africa and Middle East The AmericasTel +65 6789 8828 Tel +44 20 8652 3335 Tel +1 713 525 2600 or Toll free +1 888 525 3255 (US and Canada only)

ICIS price forecast reportsSupply demand and price trends at a glance

ICIS price forecast reports provide a clear view of prices and supply and demand trends for the next 12 months Packed with vital information the report includes everything you need to assess where the market is heading and the impact or opportunity that presents for your business

To find out more or take a trial visit wwwiciscompriceforecast

Price Forecast Window

ICIS price forecasts are now available on the Dashboard channel using the Price Forecast Window which will enable users to

n Chart the price forecast against the last (rolling) twelve months of related price history

n Plot the last 12 months to view forecast progression and ICIS forecast accuracy

n Convert data into different currencies and units and download this data into Excel in order to easily enter into your own calculations

How price forecast reports can help youn Understand the marketUse ICIS price forecast reports to understand where the market is heading and identify the risks and the opportunities for your business What are the major demand developments for your product n Safeguard commercial decisionsUse market information to make better-informed business decisions relating to supply and demand Learn about changes in market capacities What factors will affect supply for you n Budgeting and planningWhether you are planning how much you will be spending in the short-to medium or even long term use the price forecast reports to help assess future prices for your product What will the price of your product be in six monthsrsquo time

Price forecast reports currently

available

Available as price forecast windows only

Polypropylene

Polyethylene

Benzene

StyrenePolystyrene

Methanol

Ethylene

Propylene

Styrene

Asia Europe US Global

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

OLEFINSBUTADIENE

ASIA BD TO FLUCTUATE IN H2 AS SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE SHIFTSBy Helen Yan

Asiarsquos butadiene (BD) spot prices for July shipments are likely to face downward pressure but any price downtrend is likely to reverse when cracker turnarounds start to kick in from September onwards

BD prices are expected to be weighed down before seeing support again in the third quarter as the supply and demand balance shifts during this period

The fourth quarter will likely see support for BD prices although the increases may be tempered by resistance from the downstream synthetic rubber (SR) makers to any significant price hikes

The busy cracker turnaround season in September-November will likely see supply tightening at the same time that demand is expected to pick up during this period

Several crackers and BD units including South Korearsquos Lotte Chemical LG Chem and Chinarsquos Shanghai Secco and Maoming Petrochemical are scheduled to shut during

the September to November time frame

In the near term BD spot prices are likely to continue to trend lower as demand wanes while supply at the same time is expected to lengthen due to an influx of deep-sea cargoes and regional cracker restarts

More than 15000 tonnes of deep-sea cargoes from EU are expected to arrive in Asia in June and July at the same time that crackers in Asia including Indiarsquos Haldia Petrochemical and Indonesiarsquos Chandra Asri resume their production following their maintenance shutdowns

On 8 June spot prices fell to $1725tonne CFR (cost amp freight) northeast (NE) Asia the second consecutive week of decline after spiralling upwards in the two months since early April

BD spot prices had increased by more than 40 since early April peaking at $1800tonne CFR NE Asia on 25 May

Strong demand from derivative acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) makers which were running their plants at optimal rates had bolstered the BD price upsurge during this period

However derivative styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) and polybutadiene rubber (PBR) producers the key consumers of BD cut their production output given the continued erosion in margins

Several major SBR and PBR producers said their margins had fallen into negative territory and retreated from the BD spot market in June

Chinese spot appetite in particular tapered off as domestic BD prices were lower compared with the US dollar-denominated import prices

In China Hangzhou Zhechen Jilin Petrochemical Zhejiang Transfar and Shen Hua Chemical were some of the SBR and PBR plants that are shut for maintenance in June and July

Several SBR and PBR plants in Taiwan and South Korea were also running at lower rates following the 40 BD price spike in the two months from early April to end-May

In South Korea major SR producer Korea Kumho Petrochemical PC was running its SBR and PBR plants at reduced rates

Back to Quick Navigation | 33Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian butadiene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 34Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Similarly Taiwanrsquos TSRC also cut the production output of its SBR and PBR plants

The outlook for the fourth quarter is expected to see a different turn of events with SBR and PBR plants resuming their production and ramping up their operating rates while supply during the last quarter is expected to tighten from the heavy cracker turnaround season

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYETHYLENE (PE)

SOUTHEAST ASIA PE MARKET FACES LONGER H2 SUPPLY WEAK DEMANDBy Felita Widjaja

Southeast Asiarsquos polyethylene (PE) market may be facing longer supply in the second half hinging on how the US-China trade spat plays out amid the regionrsquos weakening demand for imports

Global PE trade flows will be affected should China the biggest importer of spot PE cargoes in the world decide to impose retaliatory 25 tariff on US cargoes

Southeast Asia as an alternative buying region might be hard pressed to absorb additional supply from the US where massive PE capacities recently started up which were meant to cater to huge Chinese demand

Around 5m tonnes of additional US PE capacities are expected from several major projects including those in the pipeline to start up within the second half of 2018

China primarily imports PE cargoes from Asia and the Middle East while the US is its sixth leading PE supplier in 2017

ldquoEventually more substantial and regular volume of US [PE] cargoes are expected to be traded in Asia in the second half of the year as we have yet to see them in the first half of this yearrdquo said a regional trader

Any changes in trade flows would pose challenges to US suppliers in the short term as they would need to revamp their logistics and distribution channels to redirect cargoes to other markets

Suppliers from the Middle East meanwhile might take the opportunity to supply more cargoes to China and would mean fewer volumes available to the southeast Asian market

The Middle East is southeast Asiarsquos major PE supplier

Demand for PE imports in southeast Asia has been weak amid lower prices in

Back to Quick Navigation | 35Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

the domestic markets as in the case of Thailand

ldquoThai traders are not keen to import as local prices are more competitive so they do not have the margin to sell the imported cargoes in local market Only some converters who need specific cargoes continue to importrdquo said a local Thai trader

Malaysia and Indonesia with predominantly Muslim populations have seen market activity slow down since mid-May when the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan started Ramadan ends with the Eid ul-Fitr holiday on 15 June

The Indonesian government has declared a longer Eid-ul Fitr holiday this year from 11-20 June

Markets in Singapore and the Philippines will be closed for the mid-June holiday as well

With supply expected to become long some market players expect regional PE prices in July and August to ease from

June with restocking activities expected to kick in towards the end of the third quarter

In the first half of 2018 southeast Asiarsquos average prices for commodity PE were largely stable to firm owing to suppliersrsquo relatively comfortable-to-tight supply for most of the period

At the start of June high density polyethylene (HDPE) film grade prices averaged $1395tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia while linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) film were at $1210tonne CFR SE Asia and $1265tonne CFR SE Asia respectively according to ICIS data

Prices had spiked in the first quarter as suppliers were holding comfortable-to-tight inventory as several regional producers have scheduled turnarounds at their plants in March Production issues and shutdowns in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia also limited availability of imports to southeast Asia during this period

Supply for HDPE film was particularly tight as some producers from the Middle East as well as Asia switched their focus into making HDPE pipe grade amid robust demand and better netbacks

The price uptrend across most PE grades could not be sustained in the second quarter although prices remained relatively stable-to-firm

The depreciation of local currencies in southeast Asia against the US dollar in most of the second quarter was also curbing overall demand for imports A weaker currency makes US dollar-denominated imports expensive

ldquoIndonesian buyers have not been buying much cargoes as the market slowed down during Ramadan and also because of weak rupiah which led the central bank to increase interest rate to limit the depreciationrdquo said a regional producer

CHINA PE IMPORTS TO STAY STRONG AMID DOMESTIC PLANT TURNAROUNDS By Angie Li

Chinarsquos polyethylene (PE) imports are expected to remain strong for the rest of the year after posting record volumes in January to April 2018 amid scheduled turnarounds at domestic facilities

Buyers in China have been accumulating imported PE cargoes as these were priced lower compared futures prices since the start of the year

More cargoes will be available to China as new capacities in the US are expected to boost production

For the month of May the countryrsquos PE imports are projected to reach 12m tonnes higher than the monthly average in the first four months of 2018

In January to April 2018 its PE imports volumes totaled 447m tonnes up by 12 from the previous corresponding period according to industry sources

The import volumes were making up for the production losses in the domestic market due to scheduled turnarounds

On 1 June low density PE (LDPE) imports were assessed at $1155-1180tonne linear low density PE (LLDPE) stood at $1150-1170tonne while high density PE (HDPE) film products were at $1340-1400tonne according to ICIS data

The prices have increased 15-62 from end-March but the gains came in lower than market playersrsquo expectations considering the heavy production loss due to turnarounds from April

Back to Quick Navigation | 36Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

An estimated 500000 tonnes are expected to be shaved in the second quarter due to scheduled maintenance at domestic facilities according ICIS data

ldquoWe thought the hefty plant turnarounds in the second quarter should lead to a surge in PE prices but the LDPE and LLDPE prices were less than satisfactory although HDPE prices [were] highrdquo said an east China-based trader referring to both the import and domestic PE prices

Strong imports amid hedging activities bloated the total supply in China in January to April to 998m tonnes up by 8 from the previous corresponding period with supply of LDPE and LLDPE up by 14 and 8 respectively market sources said

Imports of HDPE inched up by 2 over the same period given the gradersquos comparatively higher prices compared with LLDPE and LDPE

Increased availability due to recent capacity expansions and start-ups in Asia the Middle East also fuels Chinarsquos appetite for import cargoes

In the first quarter of 2018 additional cargoes from Saudi Arabia were mostly from Sadara Chemical which started up its 750000 tonneyear swing plant and 350000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Al Jubail during late 2016 and early 2017 respectively

Cargoes of Iran origin augmented the total volume from the UAE as market players try to go around the financial sanctions on Tehran Kordestan Petrochemicalrsquos 300000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Iran came on stream in March 2017

UAErsquos Borouge has also ramped up pipe and HDPE film exports to China during the period according to a supplier in the Middle East

Meanwhile PE imports from Singapore surged 38 year on year while those from India more than doubled to 127000 tonnes according to China Customs data

The ban on waste plastics implemented in China in the year also bolstered imports of virgin PE Some waste plastics processed overseas and then re-entered the market as virgin products but these volumes were limited

Last year China has imported 194m tonnes of PE waste plastics while

volumes in 2018 will be negligible with the implemention of the ban

Chinarsquos PE production this year is expected to increase by around 7 to about 17m tonnes in 2018 with imports projected to grow by 102 to around 13m tonnes according to a source from state-owned petrochemical giant PetroChina

Domestic demand for PE on the other hand is forecast to grow by 8 this year mainly from the packaging and pipe markets

Chinarsquos ongoing campaign to switch to using gas for power generation instead of coal is expected to continue boosting demand for PE gas pipes this year

The packaging industry will also drive up PE consumption underpinned by growth in electronic commerce Chinarsquos express delivery volumes reached 137bn packages during January-April 2018 based on data from the recent China Express Industry Development Conference in May

Back to Quick Navigation | 37Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 38Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

By Jonathan Lopez

ICIS NewsThe leading news service for real-time ground breaking news and analysis on the global petrochemicals markets

The ICIS News services give you unrivalled access to the most in-depth stories impacting the petrochemicals markets influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions

Our team of global editors are reporting around the clock to bring you the latest news and analysis so that you get the full picture of market and pricing developments first providing you with invaluable foresight to take advantage of every opportunity and to stay ahead of your competitors

With ICIS News you will be the first to read

Breaking news on the chemical markets that will impact your business

News on market moves deals and announcements that will affect your organisation

Force majeures closures and developments that influence your commodity prices

Expert analysis on industry trends and hot topics ndash know whatrsquos happening and why

Searchable archive with over 14 million articles from the past 10 years

Chemical Business News Base (CBNB) is a premium resource available on ICIS News It provides you with an extensive external source of upstream and downstream petrochemical news in summarised snapshots so you can quickly and easily get the latest updates on whatrsquos important to you

CBNB offers readers

Fast and consistent coverage on news facts figures from the upstream and downstream petrochemicals industry

Access to over 700 news sources including technical and trade journals company literature market research reports stockbroker reports books and directories

User-friendly search functionality to find articles most relevant to you from around the globe

Quick and easy-to-read summarised snapshots of articles with option to access full articles from the original source

ICIS Chemical Business digital magazine (ICB) Our global team of experts digests and summarises the key issues and their potential impact on the chemical markets offering a comprehensive overview of the key developments that matter most-along with informed opinion and in-depth analysis

ICB features include

In-depth insight into chemical price changes and their impact on the markets

Understand the detail behind the headline news stories

Find out about supply amp demand trends and the factors impacting them

Get the complete picture of the chemical markets ndash all in one e-magazine

Easy access via e-magazine and premium magazine website

Find out more wwwiciscomnews

ICIS News offers access to additional sources including the ICIS Chemical Business Magazine and Chemical Business News Base (CBNB)

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYPROPYLENE (PP)

SE ASIA PP PRICES MAY COME UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 AS SUPPLY LENGTHENSBy Leanne Tan

Southeast Asiarsquos polypropylene (PP) market may come under pressure in the second half of the year on account of lengthening regional supply and weak downstream demand

Spot prices have been on the rise for most of May buoyed by bullish sentiment in the Chinese market and firm upstream feedstock costs

Margins for PP makers have been lower on average compared with levels in the previous year

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refinery amp Petrochemicals is scheduled to start up its 400000 tonneyear PP production unit in the third quarter The project was initially scheduled to start up in the first quarter of 2018

While domestic demand will continue to outstrip local production the countryrsquos reliance on imports may be diminished when the new plant starts up

Converters in the country have been opting to keep inventories lean in the short term amid expectations that prices may eventually weaken when more domestic supply becomes available

ldquoBuyers donrsquot want to buy too much import cargoes now not just because prices are high but also because there will be more locally-produced materials very soonrdquo a Vietnamese trader said

In Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan is expected to start commercial production at its expanded PP facility in Pasir Gudang in June or July The plantrsquos capacity will be raised by 200000 tonnesyear from 400000 tonnesyear

Import availabilities from South Korea are expected to lengthen in the medium-to-long term with S-Oil expected to complete an olefin downstream complex (ODC) at its Onsan refinery in Ulsan which will include a

405000 tonneyear PP capacity

On the demand front weakness is likely to persist in the second half with converters and end-users likely to continue buying spot cargoes on a hand-to-mouth basis

Indonesiarsquos demand in particular has been below expectations since the start of 2018 and this is likely to continue in the second half of the year according to market players

Back to Quick Navigation | 39Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Some players said import demand for dutiable cargoes may increase in the second half of the year as this is typically when the government issues duty exemption facilities

The duty exemption facilities are issued on a yearly basis which enable converters to import some PP volumes without extra cost

In Malaysia the removal of the 6 goods and services tax (GST) so far has had no immediate impact on the PP market although there are some expectations the move could potentially boost demand in the consumer market further down the road

In Vietnam demand for PP flat yarn has entered a seasonal lull from May to early July and will not pick up until August when the summer harvest begins

PP is widely used in the manufacture of woven sacks (for rice sacks) flexible packaging carpets household appliances and automotive parts

Spot PP prices in southeast Asia have been an uptrend for most of the first half

The PP market begun the year on a bullish note with spot prices surging by almost 10 over the course of two months all-origins PP flat yarn prices peaked at $1295tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia on 2 March

Healthy demand in China helped to provide support to spot prices in southeast Asia in the first quarter with a tight global spot supply leading to further price escalations

Some suppliers pulled back from the southeast Asian spot market to capitalise on better netbacks in other countries including Japan and Pakistan leading to further curtailed spot availability in southeast Asia

The market rally started to lose steam in early March amid subdued demand and a build-up of domestic inventories in China after the Lunar New Year holidays

The bearish sentiment soon spilled over into southeast Asia with Chinese suppliers pushing some volumes into southeast Asia amid an open arbitrage window

Vietnam remains the market of choice for Chinese exporters and PP import prices in the country plummeted as the result of the lengthened spot availability

However the bearish run was short-lived and prices soon bottomed out in early April

Bullish momentum in the upstream crude and naphtha markets propelled spot prices of polymers higher

Despite lacklustre downstream demand price hikes in April and May were commonplace as producers sought higher asking prices in view of narrower margins

TIGHT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT CHINA PP MARKET DESPITE WEAK DEMANDBy Dora Xue

Tight supply would buoy up Chinarsquos polypropylene (PP) prices in the near term despite weak downstream demand

The market is expecting heavy production losses following recent unexpected outages at five domestic facilities from May and scheduled turnarounds at other plants

In the week ended on 1 June domestic prices for PP flat yarn in east China were assessed at Chinese yuan (CNY) 9075tonne after a steady increase from early April according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos import prices for the same material stood at $1245tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China largely tracking movement in the domestic market over the past two months according to ICIS data

The strong PP prices have also started to deter buyers from purchasing more spot cargoes

ldquoPP prices are too high We donrsquot want to store too much in our warehouserdquo a buyer said

Downstream demand typically goes on a lull in June and July but any downward pressure on prices will be negated by a further tightening of supply as major plants will be taken off line for maintenance

ldquoWhen the maintenance season finishes in late June [PP] prices may start to go downrdquo a trader said

Demand is considered weakest at Qingdao in the eastern Shandong province due to government-mandated production cuts and logistics restrictions ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (SCO Summit) on 9-10 June

As of 1 June the combined polyolefin inventories of Chinese petrochemical majors Sinopec and PetroChina have declined back to normal levels of 700000 tonnes from a high of 1m tonnes in early March market sources said

Import supply to China may not improve in the short term as suppliers still deem other

Back to Quick Navigation | 40Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

Back to Quick Navigation | 43Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 7: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

AROMATICSXYLENES

ASIA MX LIKELY TO BE UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 2018 ON WEAK DEMANDBy Deborah Lee

Asian mixed xylenes are likely to face headwinds in H2 2018 on weaker demand from the gasoline blending sector as well as increasing length in downstream markets

Demand for xylenes as a gasoline blending component in China has softened due to lower crude oil prices

Brent futures have come off from a recent peak of over $80bbl to hover at around $75-7750bbl range in June breaking an uptrend seen earlier in the year

Prices of octane boosters typically rise when crude is on an upswing as gasoline margins are expected to increase

Adding to the bleak outlook for gasoline blending materials stockpiles of blending gasoline within China are plentiful sources said

The isomer-grade xylene (IX) cargoes are mainly used as a feedstock for downstream paraxylene (PX) but upcoming capacity will keep a lid on spot IX prices

The new PX production facilities are largely integrated and do not require additional procurement of IX

Already the spread between PX and IX has narrowed from $180-190tonne to $140-150tonne with $120-140tonne being the breakeven point for producers

Earlier in the first half of 2018 strong China demand and firm crude had pushed mixed xylene prices up

Fundamentally demand from China pushed prices higher as the countryrsquos imports of IX had been persistently higher since the end of 2017

Demand for IX as a gasoline blending component was one major factor for the increase in appetite for the material while

another was that an integrated plant in China was purchasing spot IX in the market as a feedstock for its PX plant due to issues with its own IX cargoes

Margins for PX had remained at healthy levels despite the strength in the IX market keeping buying interest in IX as a feedstock healthy

Concerns remained over Chinarsquos new tax policy aimed to reduce tax evasion for gasoline blenders which was originally planned to begin 1 March but the impact was tempered by the clear uptrend in crude futures as well as a strong Chinese yuan

Strength in the yuan helped boost demand for imports as US dollar cargoes were more competitive as a result

Buyers at the same time sought IX cargoes over solvent-grade xylene (SX) on concerns that Chinese authorities would implement an additional consumption tax on mixed aromatics which shares the same HS code as SX There has yet to be an official announcement on the additional consumption tax

Further exacerbating the situation was tight supply with a Japanese producer was scheduled to be shut from June to August for maintenance greatly reducing supply of IX in the region

But the spike in spot prices sparked concerns that demand was unsustainable at that point -- gasoline blending margins were unappealing and stockpiles of blended gasoline in China were high

In May the sharp increase in IX prices eroded PX margins as well adding to concerns that buying interest was not sufficient to keep the market discussions at such high levels

Prices slipped after peaking at $867tonne on 10 May

This was offset when Chinarsquos Maoming Petrochemical successfully started up and achieved on-spec cargoes at its phase II aromatics unit in Guangdong on 20 May The plant is able is produce 400000 tonnesyear of IX

With the new plant adding to domestic supply in China the prospect of import demand was looking dim

Back to Quick Navigation | 07Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Domestic prices of IX in east China were now cheaper than imported prices the CFR northeast Asia price now commanding a small premium to the import parity of local spot discussions

With gasoline blending margins down and ample cheaper substitutes available demand for SX has also taken a hit

But supply remained tight for SX in China with buying interest strong in recent weeks although buyers have lowered bids in line with the fall in the domestic market

Inventory levels have recovered from just 900 tonnes in the middle of May and continue to hover around 5000 tonnes In 2017 weekly SX stockpiles in east China averaged 17172 tonnes

The supply situation was unlikely to ease with production of SX in the region limited due to increasing reliance on lighter feeds such as LPG

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian mixed xylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 08Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Pricing IntelligenceAccess independent price assessments that meet IOSCOrsquos PRA Principles and are widely trusted and used as benchmarks in the industry ICIS coverage is unrivalled with pricing data and information for over 180 commodities across all key regions Make fast and confident decisions and determine the best time to buy or sell with access to l Spot and contract price assessments including personalised alerts to notify you of changes l In-depth analysis and price history to help you track and understand price drivers and trends l Easy access to information with multiple delivery options

Analytics SolutionsICIS offers a unique combination of analytics tools designed to help you navigate and optimise opportunities in an ever-changing market making complex analytics simple for you Our solutions help you react quicker to market developments in a demand-led price-sensitive global marketplace enabling you to l Spot opportunities and minimise risk l Shape future strategy l Maintain a competitive advantage l Supplement your in-house analytics

Specialist ServicesThe global team of ICIS experts brings extensive knowledge of industry sectors through

Expand your knowledge to navigate complex markets more confidently

Get the latest insights into current issues and trends from a hand-picked selection of experts

Get tailored advice and guidance to address your companyrsquos key challenges

Industry NewsOur extensive global network of local experts report breaking news stories that impact chemical markets influence commodity prices and affect your daily business decisions Alerts and our one-stop platform keep you fully informed and support your planning with access to l Real-time news round-the-clock l Analysis and likely market impact l Production news and force majeures

Supply amp Demand DatabaseReceive an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical supply chain for over 100 petrochemical commodities Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacity production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040 ndash providing you with a long-term view of the rapidly changing petrochemical market The database enables you to l Determine the local or regional scenario in a global context to support your planning l Identify evaluate and optimise opportunities l Validate commercial and growth strategies l Identify and manage financial or investment risks

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AROMATICSPARAXYLENE

ASIA PX FACES DOWNWARD PRESSURE AS SUPPLY LENGTHENS INTO H2By Samuel Wong

Asiarsquos paraxylene (PX) prices are likely to face downward pressure going into the second half of 2018 due to new capacities coming on stream with no additional downstream units to absorb the supply

A total of 205myear of new PX capacities will be added in the second half including PetroRabighrsquos 135m tonneyear unit in Saudi Arabia and Nghi Son Refinery and Petrochemicalrsquos 700000 tonneyear unit in Vietnam

Asiarsquos PX intermonth spread is currently at a backwardation of $3-4tonne down from $12-15tonne in the first quarter as market participants were gradually pricing in the additional supply PX supply

There are expectations that the market will flip into a contango once smooth operations are achieved at the new PX units

Among new PX capacities PetroRabighrsquos new PX unit is expected to achieve full operations from the third-quarter onward after suffering some technical hiccups in the second quarter

Nghi Son on the other hand is expected to start exporting cargoes from its new PX unit from the second-half of July according to market participants

Asia will be in oversupply of PX as the total capacity increase would require 31m tonnesyear of downstream purified terephthalic acid (PTA) capacities but no firm PTA start-ups are on tap in the next six months

Moreover Chinarsquos Fuhaichuang Petrochemical formerly Dragon Aromatics (Zhangzhou) is planning to resume operations at its idled complex in the third quarter this year after more than three years of shutdown

Its Zhangzhou complex consists of a 16m tonneyear PX plant and a 45m tonneyear downstream PTA plant which constitutes three 15m tonneyear lines two of which have resumed operations since late 2017

According to market participants the company is likely to restart the third PTA line once smooth operations at its PX unit is achieved

In India JBF Grouprsquos 125m tonneyear PTA unit is supposed to begin production in the third quarter of 2018 but the schedule is still fluid according to market players

The company has recently entered into a deal with existing investor KRR for the private equity firm to acquire a majority stake in certain company assets as the company enters into discussions to restructure its debt on 18 May

In Europe Indorama Ventures plans to start up an idled Portugal-based 700000 tonneyear PTA unit which it recently acquired in July The plant formerly known as Artlant PTA originally came on stream in 2012 but closed in 2014 for financial reasons and bar a brief period in operation was subsequently idled

Back to Quick Navigation | 09Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Thailandrsquos Indorama Ventures acquired Atlant PTA in the fourth quarter of 2017

Asian PX prices are currently above those of main feedstock naphtha by more than the breakeven level of $250tonne while PX production via feedstock isomer-xylene through the parex process and feedstock toluene through the toluene disproportionation (TDP) route have also remained economically viable

All these will mean that PX producers will maintain high operating rates at their existing plants

Spot sales have been increasing amid strong production across the region A southeast Asia-based producer is currently offering around 15000-20000 tonnesmonth of cargoes double to triple the monthly volumes it offered in the previous year

The price gap between PX and naphtha has narrowed to $315tonne in the second quarter falling from the peak of around $425tonne in end-February as the market started pricing in the expected increase in supply

In the first half of the year Asiarsquos PX production losses were estimated at 167m tonnes due to a heavy turnaround schedule

Negotiations for PX Asian Contract Price (ACP) failed for three consecutive months from April after successful monthly settlements in the first quarter ndash when producers and end-users were in agreement that supply was restricted by the turnarounds amid healthy demand in Asia

Back to Quick Navigation | 10Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian paraxylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 11Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Arbitrage economics for deep-sea materials into Asia has largely remained shut since the start of the year mainly due to a tightly supplied market in the US

However Asia does not need the supply from the US ndash which ships out 10000-15000 tonnes of supply to this region on a monthly basis ndash once the new PX units achieved smooth operations according to market participants

Toward the fourth quarter a tightening of supply may provide support to PX prices with several plants in the key China market due for turnaround

PX prices are also expected to track movement in the upstream crude and naphtha prices as well as downstream PTA futures values

AROMATICSSTYRENE MONOMER

ASIA SM UP ON LIMITED SUPPLY TIGHTNESS TO EASE IN H2By Deborah Lee

Asiarsquos styrene monomer (SM) market ndash supported in the first half of 2018 by tight supply ndash is expected to see more arbitrage cargoes from the US and Europe besides completion of turnarounds which may put pressure on prices for the rest of the year

Already April and May cargoes have been loaded from the US and have either found buyers or are likely to do so in South Korea

Furthermore Chinarsquos turnarounds will largely be over by end June with demand for imports expected to fall as domestic production returns to normal

A final anti-dumping duty (ADD) decision by China over SM imports from South Korea Taiwan and the US is also being closely watched by market participants

The China ministry of commerce is expected to announce its final results of its ADD probe in June

Prices are expected to come off in the second half of the year as a result of easing of supply and already there is a steep backwardation in the market with the JuneJuly spread at $65-85tonne

The CFR China marker started off at $1335tonne the start of the year and peaked at $156250tonne early June The SM assessment has since softened but remained above the $1400tonne level

They were largely supported in the first half because of limited arbitrage arrivals amid unplanned plant issues and scheduled turnarounds in Europe and the US while the CFR (cost amp freight) China market was hit by the ADD imposed on South Korean Taiwanese and US origin cargoes

Besides planned plant maintenance in the US and Europe unexpected issues at several plants disrupted production further

In France Totalrsquos 600000 tonneyear SM plant in Gonfreville was affected by an outage at the producerrsquos cracker in the same location early February

But the biggest impact was from CosMarrsquos unplanned shutdown caused by equipment failure due to the polymerization at its purification units

Production at its 118m tonneyear plant in Carville Louisiana resumed April 10 nearly three months after it was shut mid-January

The tight supply situation almost guaranteed that there would be no arbitrage cargoes from the US and Europe heading into Asia

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But this was further secured by ADDs imposed on some of Chinarsquos key suppliers of SM as part of the Chinese authoritiesrsquo preliminary decision in February

This had greatly reduced options for the largest importer of SM cargoes in Asia

China which imported over 3m tonnes of SM in 2017 has had to turn to the Middle East southeast Asia and Japan to supplement cargoes it had received before from countries affected by ADD

Other macroeconomic factors boosted the CFR China assessment -- a stronger yuan rendered US dollar imports more competitive versus domestic cargoes for one

China also lowered VAT rates from 17 to 16 effective May 1 further bolstering interest in imported cargoes

Prices fell in end-February as some sellers offloaded cargoes due to an influx of arrivals

Concerns over end user demand emerged as the second quarter was expected to be a good demand season for SM and its derivatives but in reality buyers were slow to emerge deterred by high prices

In China in particular demand was slow to pick up after the Lunar New Year holiday because downstream producers were well stocked as operating rates were maintained during the typically low demand season in winter

This was in anticipation of rising SM prices due to the ADD probe

The additional spot cargoes in the market combined with lackluster demand pressured spot prices lower The CFR China assessment on 21 March fell to $1270tonne

As news of more turnarounds planned within China emerged domestic supply of SM was looking increasingly tight

With many plants due to be shut over April to June production was persistently lowered over the quarter and expectations of tight supply pushed the market higher again

Spot prices remained on an upswing as inventory levels slumped and prompt supply was limited

Stockpiles of SM in east China fell to a multi-year low as of 30 May at 37500 tonnes

Back to Quick Navigation | 13Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian styrene monomer (SM) markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 14Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Cargoes hitting Chinarsquos shores were not sufficient to meet the countryrsquos growing appetite for SM particularly as the Q3 manufacturing for exports season was fast approaching

Downstream producers however were struggling to pass on rising feedstock costs to their buyers

Thinning margins have led to some mulling lowering operating rates at its resin plants

Petrochemicals Analytics SolutionsOur new and enhanced petrochemical analytics and insight puts you in a stronger position so you can optimise your trades plans and strategies in order to secure a competitive advantage

ICIS is the only information provider to offer this unique combination of analytics tools as one subscription alongside pricing data and analysis

Live Supply Disruption TrackerPlant outages and maintenance for the next 12 months plus the impact of capacity changes

3 Pre-empt competition and capitalise on trades impacted by outages

3 Be aware of market shortages with a real-time view to manage risk and ensure security of stock

3 Negotiate better prices with other market players

Supply amp Demand OutlooksQuarterly global supply and demand review and outlook for key value chains and regions

3 Support your short-term strategy with upstream and downstream market sentiment and expectations for the current quarter at a regional level

3 Expand opportunities in international trade3 Understand at-a-glance the regional supply and

demand outlook across six key commodity chains

Price Drivers AnalyticsCross-commodity and cross-regional analysis of importexport parity substitution trends and feedstockdownstream spreads

3 Gain new context and negotiating tools in addition to ICIS price assessments

3 Pre-empt competition and spot opportunities with visual charts and impact commentaries

3 Reduce the time spent making manual calculations and spend more time on strategy and acting on market opportunities

4

360 view of the market l See the global market from

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AROMATICSTOLUENE

CHINA IMPORTS TO UNDERPIN ASIA TOLUENE MARKET IN H2 2018By Trixie Yap

Asiarsquos toluene market direction in the second half of this year will be determined by the buying activity from Chinese importers which has been the key factor influencing its prices so far in 2018

FOB (free on board) Korea prices which have been fluctuating in a wider-than-expected range for the past month closed at $760-785tonne in the week ended 1 June for June and July-loading parcels

The decreases at the close on 1 June marked the end of three weeksrsquo worth of stable-to-firm price trend

This followed weaker import demand from China for July which mainly stemmed from the ending of traders replenishing shore tank inventories at eastern ports such as Jiangsu

CFR (cost amp freight) China prices were in a sideways trend for most parts of early 2018 up to March at $690-765tonne

Prices only picked up after April and hit a peak of $835tonne CFR China after fluctuating in the $700-710tonne CFR China range for a few weeks

Unlike earlier expectations when market players were hoping for Chinese import demand to peak after the post early-March Lunar New Year period CFR China buying activity remained muted and only rose after May because of improved demand from the gasoline blenders

Blending demand received a boost because of lower gasoline production from state-owned refineries amid a spate of turnarounds in China ndash mainly in the eastern regions ndash starting end April to June

The better blending economics for toluene in early May particularly for the oil majors paved the way for demand as well

Back to Quick Navigation | 15Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Toluene-isomer xylenes spread on an ex-tank basis was wider with toluene being much more price friendly for gasoline production as compared to isomer xylene

With the 1 May implementation of a new online tax-filing system for oil and chemical products oil majors had no choice but to buy blend stocks themselves

Back to Quick Navigation | 16Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

instead of gasoline cargoes directly as the government was effectively making private gasoline blending activities unworkable as these blenders will not be able to potentially avoid tax payments via the paper filing system now

The presence of higher-than-expected inventories at east China main ports ndash stock levels hit a high of 76700 tonnes in early March ndash contributed further to the later timing of import demand Inventories only fell significantly after April (see chart above)

The only key issue hampering import demand from improving further was the

generally weak off taking activities from the downstream chemical sectors as isocynates benzoic acid benzyl chloride and other types of solvent products

The downstream demand was hampered because of low and unchanged operating rates because of stricter environmental regulations imposed by the government since second-half 2017

Looking ahead however the bleak demand situation for toluene from the chemical downstream sector could reverse soon starting August-September because of Wan Hua Chemicalrsquos new TDI plant start-up

The TDI plantsrsquo nameplate capacity is currently 300000 tonnesyear which could equate to around 160000 tonnesyear of toluene usage according to several market players

While this may not directly represent an increase in demand for CFR China import toluene cargoes it is likely to boost domestic toluene demand within north China particularly Shandong region and allow for potential arbitrage flows within the country

This in turn may support import parity of yuan-denominated ex-tank prices and allow for healthy distributor margins ndash if they consider to buy CFR China cargoes which is a key driver for majority of these import buyers

Market participants in China were quick to note also that supply increments ndash following at least three new plant start-ups this year ndash will outpace demand increments whichcould pose a problem in determining whichwill have a larger impact on import demandand prices

ldquoThe additional capacities may not be sold into the merchant market because there will still be captive usage since these producers are refineries with gasoline requirements and fulfilmentsrdquo one east China-based trader said

Ultimately it will be dependent on how the internal consumption for gasoline ndash of these new start-ups ndash will pan out leading up to the year-end

Changes in average operating rates of state-owned refineries due to turnarounds or outages will be another direction driver

Aside from China demand-supply fundamentals the other key price driver is the supply balance within Asia

Supply has been generally long between January and May owing to the stable operating plant rates and overall sufficient availability in southeast Asia a key net exporter within the region

Availability of northeast Asian cargoes was curtailed at some points in time ndash particularly in February and March ndashbecause of turnarounds

Back to Quick Navigation | 17Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 18Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

However supply has been steadily rising for cargoes loading in May and June ndash with the market seeing an additional of close to 30000 tonnes of product from South Korea alone ndash as some downstream plants had ongoing shutdown plans all the way till early July (see right)

All of these cargoes as expected are heading to China because of the opened arbitrage window for exports during the same time period

The increment in excess spot supply from South Korea ndash going forward ndash will be driven by downstream spreads for TDP operators since the benzene-toluene spreads have been narrowing consistently from March when the spreads hit a peak

The healthy spreads between toluene and xylenes (para and isomer) have been the only saving grace for the TDP market

ldquoBenzene demand-supply fundamentals are likely to continue remaining weak with increments in supply still expected from Middle East and Vietnam from June so that is going to still put pressure on TDP operators whether to run their unit with more toluene or less toluene [since they can adjust the amount of feedstock]rdquo one northeast Asian end-user said

ldquoBenzene demand-supply fundamentals are likely to continue remaining weak with increments in supply still expected from Middle East and Vietnam from June so that is going to still put pressure on TDP operators whether to run their unit with more toluene or less toluene [since they can adjust the amount of feedstock]rdquo one northeast Asian end-user said

There is also hope that supply will be curbed again in the autumn season ndash when several plants start their planned maintenances ndash to provide a temporary relief to the readily sufficient spot availability

Ultimately if Chinarsquos importing activity continues to be robust there will be no issues with them soaking up the excess supplies at any point of time

ldquoThe key issue is how much these buyers can procure and how long their buying activities can last but so far it has been very sporadic and capped to short time frames because of them being risk averserdquo one southeast Asian trader said

Back to Quick Navigation | 19Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

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PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian toluene markets

BASE OILSBASE OILS

ASIA MIDEAST BASE OILS FIRM IN H1 BUT SOME PULLBACK LIKELY IN H2By Jasmine Khoo amp Izham Ahmad

Asia base oils Group I SN150 and Group II 150N prices are expected to remain firm on persistently low supply whereas the heavy grades - Group I SN500 and Group II 500600N - could come under pressure on ample availability

Into the second half of the year base oils supply from Iran are expected to be stable with no known maintenance plans due over the following few months from June and that could add further pressure on prices amid the weak demand outlook

Only one Iranian refiner is due for a maintenance shutdown in the second half of the year possibly sometime in September according to market sources

In Group II like in Asia short supply of 150N and 500600N is expected to support prices in coming months but the Group II segment in the Middle East is a much smaller market for producers

Major Group II and III producers in Saudi Arabia Qatar Bahrain and UAE also continue to focus on their traditional markets outside of the Middle East due to stronger demand and higher margins

Brightstock remained largely stable for June in terms of pricing following deals done at parity with Mayrsquos levels but market players maintained a cautious stance towards brightstock pricing which would typically see downward pressure towards the end of the year

The winter season in parts of Asia would typically herald a period of slow cargo uptake for brightstock as transportation logistics get more challenging

As for Group III base oils northeast Asian-origin lots are expected to see support in spot prices from June as seen from healthy uptake among buyers amid short supply from regional suppliers

Similarly in the Middle East market Group I prices started the year on a firm note

Around mid-February SN500 prices traded up to $80750tonne FOB (free on board) Iran their highest levels since ICIS began tracking the data in November 2015

SN150 also traded their record highs about the same time hitting $72750tonne FOB Iran

These record highs were held until early May despite buyers at the time showing increasing resistance to the higher levels and the uncertainty that took hold of the market ahead of a deadline for the US to decide on whether it would remain in the Iran nuclear deal

On 8 May US president Donald Trump announced that the US will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal and re-impose sanctions on Tehran consequently driving up crude prices to new highs since late 2014

Iranrsquos base oils prices were largely stable in that week but market outlook has been clouded with uncertainties following the USrsquo decision to re-impose sanctions on the country

Group I SN500 prices were stable through the early half of May at $780-805tonne FOB Iran while Group I SN150 were holding at $710-745tonne FOB Iran since early-February according to ICIS data

Prices began to decline around mid-May when it became more apparent that the increased sanctions would cause at least some disruptions to business dealings with Iranian entities

Market players said they encountered difficulties in financial transactions with Iran and many financial institutions were reluctant to take on any dealings involving Iran-based businesses for fear of conflicting with the US sanctions

On the supply side market players in the UAE said there were sufficient cargoes built up over recent months and as such

there was less demand for further spot deals in Group I particularly with the threat of renewed sanctions

Mid-May also marked the start of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan which is a typically slow season for the Middle East

Certain manufacturing activities are reduced as factories observed shorter operating hours and as many workers took some vacation time as well

The Eid ul-Fitr long holidays followed the end of Ramadan in mid-June

Asiarsquos base oils market trends for certain widely-traded Group I grades snapped out of persistent uptrend in late April against a backdrop of increasingly squeezed buyersrsquo margins and waning demand

Steady gains in FOB Asia spot prices were recorded since September 2017 on the back of regional shortages as demand surpassed output

This was partly fuelled by natural disasters in the US when Hurricane Harvey disrupted between 20 and 25 of the countryrsquos refining capacity in August

The disruption to base oils production at some units led to increased appetite for deep-sea shipments from Asia to the US

In the current market SN500 prices registered the greatest drops among the ICIS assessed grades shedding slightly more than 12 of its spot pricing between 13 April and 25 May ICIS data showed

Market participants attributed the price dip to lackluster demand brought about by a supply overhang of domestically-produced SN400 in the local Chinese market

Competitive pricing of SN400 amid ample availability curtailed import appetite among China-based buyers for SN500 of Asian origin especially since some buyers were still holding on to sufficient stocks for the near term

Back to Quick Navigation | 20Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Brightstock prices also softened reflecting increasingly squeezed buyersrsquo margins following steep gains seen from 22 September 2017 to 23 March 2018 in FOB Asia export prices

Some buyers were also sitting on sufficient inventories from active procurement earlier in the year leading to waned demand

This led refiners and traders to cut offers to encourage cargo uptake for May shipment cargoes

Group II 150N and 500600N prices largely held up on the back of potential supply woes in the summer season amid scheduled shutdowns at major Asian refineries

Taiwanrsquos Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) is expected to conduct planned maintenance in July market sources said

This led market players to hold on to expectations of buoyed spot prices for Group II base oils in the near term though significant increase is not expected for certain grades such as 500600N amid ample spot availability in the region

Group III 4 and 6cst base oils largely continued their steady price uptrend reflecting short supply among key South Korean Group III suppliers

8cst base oils of northeast Asian origin amid comparatively greater availability than its lighter counterparts saw less gains in prices since the beginning of 2018

South Korean-origin Group III base oils prices were mostly buoyant despite an influx of Middle East-origin Group III base oils into the northeast Asian market since November 2017 as South Korean-origin Group III users adhered largely to using the same material due to formulation restrictions and related OEM approvals

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian base oils markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 21Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPURIFIED TEREPHTHALIC ACID (PTA)

ASIA PTA SUPPLY TO LENGTHEN IN H2 ON INDIA CHINA PLANT START-UPSBy Samuel Wong

Supply of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in Asia is expected to lengthen in the second half of 2018 as new capacities will start up in the major markets of India and China amid a slowdown in demand

Major plants would have resumed production after unplanned outages to ease the current global supply tightness that has been driving up Asian prices while demand typically weakens in the third quarter

Asian PTA prices may start to come under pressure as fresh supply will hit the markets when new major regional plants start production in the third quarter

ldquoMarket sentiment is currently pessimistic about the outlook however this can quickly change if we see a sudden uptick in downstream demandrdquo a China-based producer said

In India JBF Grouprsquos 125m tonneyear PTA unit in Mangalore is expected to start up in the third quarter although the schedule is still fluid according to several market participants

In China Fuhaichuang Petrochemical formerly known as Dragon Aromatics (Zhangzhou) is planning to resume operations at its complex in the third quarter of 2018 after a prolonged shutdown

Its petrochemical complex in Zhangzhou has a 45m tonneyear PTA plant comprisings three 15m tonneyear lines two of which have been in operation since end-2017 The company is likely to restart the third line once smooth operations at its upstream paraxylene (PX) unit at the site is achieved market players said

In Europe Indorama Ventures Portugal plans to start up in July an idled 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Sines Thailand-based Indorama Ventures Ltd acquired the

plant from Portuguese Artlant PTA in late 2017

All these factors should see the narrowing of the price gap between Chinarsquos import and domestic markets as early as July after widening steadily from March to May

As of 12 June the gap stood at $96tonne down from the peak of about $111tonne on 30 May

Asiarsquos PTA prices are currently steady at firm levels Regional end-users preferred to procure cargoes on a need-to basis and were not keen on building inventories

Future movement will depend on market conditions in the downstream polyester industry

The wide price gap in Chinarsquos import and domestic markets has been deterring Chinese buyers from tapping the international spot market for supplies since March while demand was healthy especially in the downstream polyethylene terephthalate (PET) markets

Tight global supply in the first half saw Asian producers shipping out cargoes to the Middle East as well as Europe which was hit by unplanned outages in Belgium and Poland in April

Back to Quick Navigation | 22Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

In Europe BP Chemical on 15 April declared a force majeure at its Belgium PTA unit and a second force majeure on 17 May PKN Orlen on 23 April declared a force majeure at its Wloclawek PTA unit in Poland which was subsequently lifted on 2 May with spot cargoes from the plant limited until after a planned maintenance in SeptemberOctober 2018

Within Asia the southeastern region has had PTA plant outages and had to procure cargoes from the northeast in the preceding two months

Regional supply tightened further with the unexpected shutdown of Hanwha General Chemicalrsquos 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Daesan prompting a force majeure declaration on 21 May

In the first half of 2018 strong growth in demand in the downstream polyester markets in Asia particularly China supported the rally in PTA prices amid tight supply

Downstream polyester markets were enjoying positive margins keeping demand for feedstock PTA healthy

In the key China market operating rates at polyester units were higher compared with the previous year

The countryrsquos PTA production losses in January-June 2018 on the other hand were estimated at around 134m tonnes due to planned and unplanned outages

Asiarsquos PTA producers were largely enjoying healthy margins on the back of steady demand growth in the downstream polyester markets Firmer upstream energy

and feedstock PX prices have also buoyed PTA prices

In January to May 2018 Brent crude traded at $6692-7616bbl up by about 25 year

on year while PX prices were at $938-994tonne representing a 15 increase over the same period

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian purified terephthalic acid (PTA)) markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 23Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPOLYETHYLENE TEREPHTHALATE (PET)

ASIA PET TO REMAIN FIRM IN Q3 AS TIGHT SUPPLY SUPPORT PRICESBy Hazel Goh

Asian polyethylene terephthalate (PET) market is likely to remain firm in the third quarter on the back of tight supply a trend that has supported prices so far in 2018

Recently PET tight supply is a result of production cuts in Asia and Europe that have not had a clear estimated date of resuming normal operations

China Resources Packaging had cut production at its PET lines in Changzhou by 50 following notice from the government to reduce pollution in end-May It is not known for how long the production cuts will remain in place

In Europe there had been feedstock purified terephthalic acid (PTA) supply tightness leading to recent PET production cuts and force majeure by Novapet and JBF respectively

Many buyers had been purchasing on a need-to basis expecting that firm prices are unsustainable and will come down Subsequently they did not stock up cargoes ahead of the peak summer demand season for countries in the northern hemisphere

The reality turned out different and they had to accept higher prices as production cuts kept the supply tight

PET used to track feedstock price movements closely as it had been an oversupplied market and producers typically operate on thin margins

The oversupply situation changed and tightness was first felt in the third quarter of 2017 when plant closures by JBF RAK in the UAE and Belgium and by Mossi amp Ghisolfi (MampG) in the US Mexico and Brazil following financial tightness in the two PET-producing companies

Hurricane Harvey that hit the US in the third quarter led to further production cuts in the US

Back to Quick Navigation | 24Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 1

From then on supply remained tight as the plant under JBF RAK in the UAE and the former MampG plant in the US that had been acquired by Far Eastern remained shut for extended period of time even into 2018

Market players previously had concerns about where China will export its material when final anti-dumping duties (ADD) - heard to be at the same level as thepreliminary duties of 398-530 - wereimposed on its cargoes into Japan inJanuary

Japan was the top exporting destination for Chinese cargoes before the ADD following which the exports dropped drastically

While other producers such as Taiwanese southeast Asian Indian and South Korean producers sold more volumes into Japan Chinese makers sold to other markets that were relinquished by the other producers

Table 1 shows a significant difference between 2016 and 2017 in Chinarsquos export volumes to key destinations from the January-to-March period

Ranked by volume starting with largestvolume as 1

There is an ongoing anti-dumping duty (ADD) investigation by the US on PET cargoes from Brazil Pakistan Indonesia Taiwan and South Korea

The Commerce Department issued the preliminary dumping rates for Indonesia at 1316 South Korea at 881-10141 and Taiwan at 902-1189 in May Final determinations will be issued by 8 November

Even so some producers from the countries under investigation continued to receive buying enquiries from the US amid the current tight supply situation

There will be some upcoming new capacities expected in Q3 as shown in table 2 that may bring about a more balanced supply to meet the demand

The US plant acquired by Far Eastern is estimated to restart in June-July which should also ease the supply tightness

Even with the new capacities and plant restarts market participants think it is unlikely that PET market will return to the oversupply situation seen in the previous years

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Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian PET markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 25Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 2

Our English-language report coverage includes

Styrene MEG Propylene

BTX Methanol Base Oil

BPA PE MTBE

Phenol PP Mixed AromaticsAcetone Oxo-Alcohol

Trusted industryintelligence for Chinarsquoscommodity marketsDevelopments in Chinarsquos petrochemicals industrycontinue to affect the global marketplace It istherefore vital for domestic and internationalmarket players to keep track of changes withinthe country to know where opportunities lie

ICIS has long been recognised as a reliablesource of information our locally-based expertscompile reports and analyses in English tosupport industry participants dealing with Chinamarkets or seeking to trade or invest

Pricing informationOur pricing data provide key insights into pricetrends in China to support your short-termdecision-making negotiations and analyses

bull Import and export spot and contract pricesbull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity

and upstreamdownstream marketsbull Data on inventory levels and price marginsbull Plant and production news

Petrochemicals Analytics SolutionsProviding our customers with a 360-degree view of the Chinese market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker - real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for thenext 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics - key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock anddo wnstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlooks

Available for key chemical commodities

wwwiciscomchina

Discover how we can meet your market information needs

enquiryiciscom

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESMONOETHYLENE GLYCOL (MEG)

ASIA MEG TO SEE DEMAND TAPERING LOWER SUPPLY IN EARLY H2By Eric Su

The Asian monoethylene glycol (MEG) market could see demand slowing down from the end of June while supply will be reduced from a number of plant turnarounds

Inventories are expected to decline in June after offtake rates at Chinese main ports rose sharply in the last two weeks of May because of an uptick in demand from downstream polyester buyers

Demand for MEG is also expected to remain strong in the first half of June boosted by high polyester production rates of above 85 and modestly low inventory levels

A slowdown in demand may take place in the second half of June as the traditional manufacturing peak period nears its end in July

Meanwhile supply conditions could tighten because of the plant turnarounds in northeast Asia

However supply from the Middle East will likely resume to normal levels given that there were no further delay in shipments in May

MEG prices in Asia have registered year-on-year growth rates in the months to June this year

MEG prices have mostly hovered above $900tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China Main Port (CMP) while prices were mostly below $900tonne CFR CMP in 2017

Prices have been volatile in 2018 with major price swings seen on a near monthly basis since February

MEG prices in first quarter of 2018 continued the uptrend seen in the fourth quarter of 2017 rising to $1030tonne CFR CMP in early March from $922tonne CFR

CMP in late December as the higher-than-expected growth in downstream polyester fuelled bullish market sentiment

Polyester growth in 2017 was estimated at above 10 beating an originally bearish expectation of 2-3

A price downtrend was observed in March with the MEG weekly average price losing nearly 10 of its value to $929tonne CFR CMP by end-March

The price decline coincided with a sharp influx of imported cargoes which was likely a result of over-procurement in January

Back to Quick Navigation | 26Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

and February when prices were trending upwards

March 2018 import volumes rose to nearly 1m tonnes a record three-year high according to official China customs data

MEG prices rebounded in April rising by around 9 from end-March to $1014tonne CFR CMP by end-April ahead of the traditional peak period for the downstream polyester sector The average polyester production rate rose to above 85 during the period

MEG also achieved its to-date weekly peak of $1042tonne CFR CMP in the week ending 20 April

Supply tightness was also observed in the Chinese domestic market because of shipment delays from the Middle East and logistical issues at China main ports over the same period

The lack of availability of prompt cargoes also led to an atypical price spread between April and May delivery parcels

Normally the spread between arrived-at-port and far-term arrival cargoes is at $0-10tonne CFR CMP but this widened to $20-30tonne CFR CMP This drove concerns of sharp price adjustments in May once April deliveries were fulfilled

These concerns came true as MEG prices

began to slide in May MEG weekly prices stood at $928tonne CFR CMP in the last week of May falling from $1003tonne CFR CMP in early May

High inventory levels have also weighed on MEG prices Inventory levels were above 900000 tonnes from early May onward rising to 938000 tonnes by in late March Most market participants deemed inventory levels above 900000 tonnes to be high

The increase in inventory levels in May were largely attributed to the arrival of Middle East shipments which were previously due for arrival in April

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian MEG markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 27Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSETHYLENE

NE ASIA ETHYLENE H2 OUTLOOK HINGES ON NEW SUPPLY SM PLANTBy Yeow Pei Lin

Northeast (NE) Asiarsquos ethylene (C2) second-half 2018 outlook is uncertain as several crackers are scheduled for maintenance but such production losses could be offset by the start up of a new plant and cargoes from outside the region

More than 20 crackers in Asia are slated to undergo maintenance in 2018 with the estimated capacity losses totalling more than 185m tonnes Most of the turnarounds in the first half of the year were concentrated in Japan ndash a key exporter to China

However several more companies are to carry out turnarounds in June and the rest of the year

The impact on the regional balance will depend on the start-up progress of a new facility in South Korea and on whether the strong exports from southeast Asia and Europe in the first half of 2018 will continue

Shipments from Yeosu South Korea will start to slow down in August ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at complexes in that region

Exports will recover by December when Lotte Chemical brings on-stream an added capacity of 200000 tonnesyear at its Yeosu cracker

The facility will undergo an expansion during a turnaround from late September to October

Shipments from Ulsan another petrochemical cluster in South Korea will grow in the second half of 2018

Newcomer S-Oil is expected to begin commercial operations at its residue upgrading complex (RUC) in Onsan in the second half of June

The companyrsquos entire ethylene output of up

to around 200000 tonnesyear is intended for the merchant market as it does not have any downstream plants

Exports from southeast Asian producers will continue to be driven by the higher value from ethylene sales in the ethylene versus polyethylene (PE) trade-off

There will however be supply constraints

Four crackers in the region will undergo

maintenance and the affected producers include ExxonMobil and PTT Global Chemicals (PTTGC) that were regular exporters in the first half of 2018

Exports from Europe will likely be influenced by the performance of the PE sector

The outlook for the PE market in Europe is uncertain given the growing prospect of competitively-priced exports from the new US plants

Back to Quick Navigation | 28Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Ethylene costs in the US have been at low levels since early 2018 as production growth outpaces that for consumption

Since late 2017 about 3m tonnesyear of new ethylene capacity and about 35m tonnesyear of new PE capacity have started up in the US

The new crackers have been running well but several of the new PE plants struggled to reach full operating rates

Exports from Saudi Arabia are expected to be constrained by increased domestic consumption

Petro Rabigh announced in April that the last few plants in its Phase 2 project including a 75000 tonneyear ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) unit have started up

The companyrsquos ethylene exports could fall further in the second half of 2018 following the completion of its PE plant maintenance shutdowns earlier in the year

Chinarsquos import demand is poised for further growth when a new 260000 tonneyear styrene monomer (SM) plant starts up in the third quarter as planned

Anhui Haoyuan Chemical will be operating the unit in Fuyang Anhui on a standalone basis as its plans to build a methanol-to-olefin (MTO) plant have been put on hold amid high methanol prices

The plant will require around 78000 tonnes of ethylene annually to operate at maximum capacity

Based on the above factors it was not immediately clear if the ethylene prices in the second half will follow the volatile trend they displayed in the first five months of 2018

NE Asia spot ethylene prices were volatile from January to May as the impact of a heavy regional cracker turnaround schedule and strong Chinese demand was at times outweighed by strong exports from southeast Asia the Middle East and Europe

The market started the year at above a two and a half year high of $1415tonne CFR (cost amp freight) NE Asia in early January

Subsequent transacted prices fluctuated within a low $1200stonne to mid $1300stonne CFR NE Asia band in the five months ended 31 May

Prices in the first quarter were initially weighed down by ample supply from producers in the Middle East and Asia due to a series of PE plant shutdowns - both planned and unplanned

That was despite strong pre-Lunar New Year holiday restocking activities in China

Demand was bolstered by the start up of a 500000 tonneyear non-integrated SM plant and generally healthy downstream margins for producers outside the PE sector

End-users were also keen to build up their inventories because of the slow progress in their 2018 term contract discussions ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at facilities of key exporters in the region

In addition a major ethylene oxide (EO) maker was seeking more import cargoes following a disruption in supply from its upstream MTO unit The plant was shut twice between late November and the first half of February because of high feedstock methanol costs

The market recovered in early March in line with the start of the annual cracker turnaround season in northeast Asia where

scheduled capacity losses in 2018 will be overall higher than the previous year

That explained why the countryrsquos exports from January to April slumped by 14 year-on-year to 201274 tonnes

In late April northeast Asiarsquos spot prices fell again after a surprisingly large quantity of deep-sea spot cargoes were sold into Asia for delivery between the middle of May and the first half of June

There were at least 55000-60000 tonnes of cargoes from Europe in addition to 11000 tonnes of US supply for that delivery period Europe was in a long position because of derivative maintenance shutdowns and production problems

Continued strong exports from southeast Asia owing to downstream production issues and the weak performance of the linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) market contributed to the downbeat sentiment

The ample supply outweighed Chinarsquos robust import demand

Buying interest in China was strong for April and May arrival cargoes on the back

Back to Quick Navigation | 29Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

of healthy downstream margins for certain downstream markets such as SM EO and monoethylene glycol (MEG)

Ethylene buyers in China were also keen to book deep-sea cargoes to offset the expected regional production losses from cracker turnarounds

Prices rebounded quickly in mid-May

aided by a bullish SM market and reduced domestic supply

Some MTO operators lowered production in May as high feedstock methanol costs led to squeezed margins while a key producer in east China lowered its cracker run rates unexpectedly

Sharp increases in feedstock naphtha costs

which tracked gains on crude oil futures also helped set a floor to the earlier price declines

By early June spot ethylene prices had touched a 20-week high raising questions on whether the market will see similar price volatility in the second half of 2018

Producers will turn hawkish if the outlook for crude and naphtha markets remains upbeat

Back to Quick Navigation | 30Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSPROPYLENE

TIGHT NE ASIA PROPYLENE SUPPLY TO LIMIT H2 PRICE FLUCTUATIONSBy Joson Ng

Tight propylene (C3) supply in northeast Asia amid a heavy turnaround schedule in 2018 will continue supporting regional prices of the material into the second half

Sellers are likely to continue passing on firmer costs to buyers which are wary of October when heavy propylene production losses are expected

Buyersrsquo resistance in the key China market would keep any further increase in propylene prices in check with some downstream producers considering cutting output due to high feedstock costs

At the start of June propylene prices have weakened ending the strong general uptrend since end-March amid weakness in Chinarsquos domestic market as demand softened due to turnarounds at downstream polypropylene (PP) plants

However the downward pressure on regional prices may be temporary as overall supply in Asia is expected to be tight

In early June spot propylene prices in northeast Asia were about 9 higher from the start of 2018 according to ICIS data

The year started on a bullish note fuelled by a heavier cracker turnaround schedule compared with 2017 and higher premium levels concluded for contract cargoes

The uptrend was sustained into February due to restocking activities in various import markets in northeast Asia before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February

Before the holidays some South Korean producers were convinced the market will experience supply shortage as both GS Caltexrsquos fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity and Yeochun NCCrsquos (YNCC) cracker ndash which can produce 280000 tonnesyear of propylene ndash were due for maintenance in February through to April

But propylene prices surprisingly weakened from 9 February to end-March without demand support from Chinarsquos weak PP market which struggled through sluggish sales and high inventory after the countryrsquos week-long Lunar New Year holiday

A renewed wave of scheduled turnarounds at regional plants tightened supply and drove up propylene prices in April and May

In Taiwan Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) took its residue fluid catalytic

Back to Quick Navigation | 31Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

cracking (RFCC) unit with a 350000 tonneyear propylene capacity off stream from 1 March to mid-April while CPC Corp shut its 100000 tonneyear FCC unit on 10 April and restarted in early June

In South Korea GS Caltex also had a turnaround at its FCC unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity from 19 February to 5 April

SK Advanced shut its propane dehydrogenated (PDH) unit with 600000 tonneyear propylene capacity on 21 April to early May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian propylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 32Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

To talk to someone about price forecast reports call the numbers below or email us at salesukiciscomAsia-Pacific Europe Africa and Middle East The AmericasTel +65 6789 8828 Tel +44 20 8652 3335 Tel +1 713 525 2600 or Toll free +1 888 525 3255 (US and Canada only)

ICIS price forecast reportsSupply demand and price trends at a glance

ICIS price forecast reports provide a clear view of prices and supply and demand trends for the next 12 months Packed with vital information the report includes everything you need to assess where the market is heading and the impact or opportunity that presents for your business

To find out more or take a trial visit wwwiciscompriceforecast

Price Forecast Window

ICIS price forecasts are now available on the Dashboard channel using the Price Forecast Window which will enable users to

n Chart the price forecast against the last (rolling) twelve months of related price history

n Plot the last 12 months to view forecast progression and ICIS forecast accuracy

n Convert data into different currencies and units and download this data into Excel in order to easily enter into your own calculations

How price forecast reports can help youn Understand the marketUse ICIS price forecast reports to understand where the market is heading and identify the risks and the opportunities for your business What are the major demand developments for your product n Safeguard commercial decisionsUse market information to make better-informed business decisions relating to supply and demand Learn about changes in market capacities What factors will affect supply for you n Budgeting and planningWhether you are planning how much you will be spending in the short-to medium or even long term use the price forecast reports to help assess future prices for your product What will the price of your product be in six monthsrsquo time

Price forecast reports currently

available

Available as price forecast windows only

Polypropylene

Polyethylene

Benzene

StyrenePolystyrene

Methanol

Ethylene

Propylene

Styrene

Asia Europe US Global

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

OLEFINSBUTADIENE

ASIA BD TO FLUCTUATE IN H2 AS SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE SHIFTSBy Helen Yan

Asiarsquos butadiene (BD) spot prices for July shipments are likely to face downward pressure but any price downtrend is likely to reverse when cracker turnarounds start to kick in from September onwards

BD prices are expected to be weighed down before seeing support again in the third quarter as the supply and demand balance shifts during this period

The fourth quarter will likely see support for BD prices although the increases may be tempered by resistance from the downstream synthetic rubber (SR) makers to any significant price hikes

The busy cracker turnaround season in September-November will likely see supply tightening at the same time that demand is expected to pick up during this period

Several crackers and BD units including South Korearsquos Lotte Chemical LG Chem and Chinarsquos Shanghai Secco and Maoming Petrochemical are scheduled to shut during

the September to November time frame

In the near term BD spot prices are likely to continue to trend lower as demand wanes while supply at the same time is expected to lengthen due to an influx of deep-sea cargoes and regional cracker restarts

More than 15000 tonnes of deep-sea cargoes from EU are expected to arrive in Asia in June and July at the same time that crackers in Asia including Indiarsquos Haldia Petrochemical and Indonesiarsquos Chandra Asri resume their production following their maintenance shutdowns

On 8 June spot prices fell to $1725tonne CFR (cost amp freight) northeast (NE) Asia the second consecutive week of decline after spiralling upwards in the two months since early April

BD spot prices had increased by more than 40 since early April peaking at $1800tonne CFR NE Asia on 25 May

Strong demand from derivative acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) makers which were running their plants at optimal rates had bolstered the BD price upsurge during this period

However derivative styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) and polybutadiene rubber (PBR) producers the key consumers of BD cut their production output given the continued erosion in margins

Several major SBR and PBR producers said their margins had fallen into negative territory and retreated from the BD spot market in June

Chinese spot appetite in particular tapered off as domestic BD prices were lower compared with the US dollar-denominated import prices

In China Hangzhou Zhechen Jilin Petrochemical Zhejiang Transfar and Shen Hua Chemical were some of the SBR and PBR plants that are shut for maintenance in June and July

Several SBR and PBR plants in Taiwan and South Korea were also running at lower rates following the 40 BD price spike in the two months from early April to end-May

In South Korea major SR producer Korea Kumho Petrochemical PC was running its SBR and PBR plants at reduced rates

Back to Quick Navigation | 33Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian butadiene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 34Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Similarly Taiwanrsquos TSRC also cut the production output of its SBR and PBR plants

The outlook for the fourth quarter is expected to see a different turn of events with SBR and PBR plants resuming their production and ramping up their operating rates while supply during the last quarter is expected to tighten from the heavy cracker turnaround season

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYETHYLENE (PE)

SOUTHEAST ASIA PE MARKET FACES LONGER H2 SUPPLY WEAK DEMANDBy Felita Widjaja

Southeast Asiarsquos polyethylene (PE) market may be facing longer supply in the second half hinging on how the US-China trade spat plays out amid the regionrsquos weakening demand for imports

Global PE trade flows will be affected should China the biggest importer of spot PE cargoes in the world decide to impose retaliatory 25 tariff on US cargoes

Southeast Asia as an alternative buying region might be hard pressed to absorb additional supply from the US where massive PE capacities recently started up which were meant to cater to huge Chinese demand

Around 5m tonnes of additional US PE capacities are expected from several major projects including those in the pipeline to start up within the second half of 2018

China primarily imports PE cargoes from Asia and the Middle East while the US is its sixth leading PE supplier in 2017

ldquoEventually more substantial and regular volume of US [PE] cargoes are expected to be traded in Asia in the second half of the year as we have yet to see them in the first half of this yearrdquo said a regional trader

Any changes in trade flows would pose challenges to US suppliers in the short term as they would need to revamp their logistics and distribution channels to redirect cargoes to other markets

Suppliers from the Middle East meanwhile might take the opportunity to supply more cargoes to China and would mean fewer volumes available to the southeast Asian market

The Middle East is southeast Asiarsquos major PE supplier

Demand for PE imports in southeast Asia has been weak amid lower prices in

Back to Quick Navigation | 35Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

the domestic markets as in the case of Thailand

ldquoThai traders are not keen to import as local prices are more competitive so they do not have the margin to sell the imported cargoes in local market Only some converters who need specific cargoes continue to importrdquo said a local Thai trader

Malaysia and Indonesia with predominantly Muslim populations have seen market activity slow down since mid-May when the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan started Ramadan ends with the Eid ul-Fitr holiday on 15 June

The Indonesian government has declared a longer Eid-ul Fitr holiday this year from 11-20 June

Markets in Singapore and the Philippines will be closed for the mid-June holiday as well

With supply expected to become long some market players expect regional PE prices in July and August to ease from

June with restocking activities expected to kick in towards the end of the third quarter

In the first half of 2018 southeast Asiarsquos average prices for commodity PE were largely stable to firm owing to suppliersrsquo relatively comfortable-to-tight supply for most of the period

At the start of June high density polyethylene (HDPE) film grade prices averaged $1395tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia while linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) film were at $1210tonne CFR SE Asia and $1265tonne CFR SE Asia respectively according to ICIS data

Prices had spiked in the first quarter as suppliers were holding comfortable-to-tight inventory as several regional producers have scheduled turnarounds at their plants in March Production issues and shutdowns in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia also limited availability of imports to southeast Asia during this period

Supply for HDPE film was particularly tight as some producers from the Middle East as well as Asia switched their focus into making HDPE pipe grade amid robust demand and better netbacks

The price uptrend across most PE grades could not be sustained in the second quarter although prices remained relatively stable-to-firm

The depreciation of local currencies in southeast Asia against the US dollar in most of the second quarter was also curbing overall demand for imports A weaker currency makes US dollar-denominated imports expensive

ldquoIndonesian buyers have not been buying much cargoes as the market slowed down during Ramadan and also because of weak rupiah which led the central bank to increase interest rate to limit the depreciationrdquo said a regional producer

CHINA PE IMPORTS TO STAY STRONG AMID DOMESTIC PLANT TURNAROUNDS By Angie Li

Chinarsquos polyethylene (PE) imports are expected to remain strong for the rest of the year after posting record volumes in January to April 2018 amid scheduled turnarounds at domestic facilities

Buyers in China have been accumulating imported PE cargoes as these were priced lower compared futures prices since the start of the year

More cargoes will be available to China as new capacities in the US are expected to boost production

For the month of May the countryrsquos PE imports are projected to reach 12m tonnes higher than the monthly average in the first four months of 2018

In January to April 2018 its PE imports volumes totaled 447m tonnes up by 12 from the previous corresponding period according to industry sources

The import volumes were making up for the production losses in the domestic market due to scheduled turnarounds

On 1 June low density PE (LDPE) imports were assessed at $1155-1180tonne linear low density PE (LLDPE) stood at $1150-1170tonne while high density PE (HDPE) film products were at $1340-1400tonne according to ICIS data

The prices have increased 15-62 from end-March but the gains came in lower than market playersrsquo expectations considering the heavy production loss due to turnarounds from April

Back to Quick Navigation | 36Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

An estimated 500000 tonnes are expected to be shaved in the second quarter due to scheduled maintenance at domestic facilities according ICIS data

ldquoWe thought the hefty plant turnarounds in the second quarter should lead to a surge in PE prices but the LDPE and LLDPE prices were less than satisfactory although HDPE prices [were] highrdquo said an east China-based trader referring to both the import and domestic PE prices

Strong imports amid hedging activities bloated the total supply in China in January to April to 998m tonnes up by 8 from the previous corresponding period with supply of LDPE and LLDPE up by 14 and 8 respectively market sources said

Imports of HDPE inched up by 2 over the same period given the gradersquos comparatively higher prices compared with LLDPE and LDPE

Increased availability due to recent capacity expansions and start-ups in Asia the Middle East also fuels Chinarsquos appetite for import cargoes

In the first quarter of 2018 additional cargoes from Saudi Arabia were mostly from Sadara Chemical which started up its 750000 tonneyear swing plant and 350000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Al Jubail during late 2016 and early 2017 respectively

Cargoes of Iran origin augmented the total volume from the UAE as market players try to go around the financial sanctions on Tehran Kordestan Petrochemicalrsquos 300000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Iran came on stream in March 2017

UAErsquos Borouge has also ramped up pipe and HDPE film exports to China during the period according to a supplier in the Middle East

Meanwhile PE imports from Singapore surged 38 year on year while those from India more than doubled to 127000 tonnes according to China Customs data

The ban on waste plastics implemented in China in the year also bolstered imports of virgin PE Some waste plastics processed overseas and then re-entered the market as virgin products but these volumes were limited

Last year China has imported 194m tonnes of PE waste plastics while

volumes in 2018 will be negligible with the implemention of the ban

Chinarsquos PE production this year is expected to increase by around 7 to about 17m tonnes in 2018 with imports projected to grow by 102 to around 13m tonnes according to a source from state-owned petrochemical giant PetroChina

Domestic demand for PE on the other hand is forecast to grow by 8 this year mainly from the packaging and pipe markets

Chinarsquos ongoing campaign to switch to using gas for power generation instead of coal is expected to continue boosting demand for PE gas pipes this year

The packaging industry will also drive up PE consumption underpinned by growth in electronic commerce Chinarsquos express delivery volumes reached 137bn packages during January-April 2018 based on data from the recent China Express Industry Development Conference in May

Back to Quick Navigation | 37Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 38Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

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bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

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bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

By Jonathan Lopez

ICIS NewsThe leading news service for real-time ground breaking news and analysis on the global petrochemicals markets

The ICIS News services give you unrivalled access to the most in-depth stories impacting the petrochemicals markets influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions

Our team of global editors are reporting around the clock to bring you the latest news and analysis so that you get the full picture of market and pricing developments first providing you with invaluable foresight to take advantage of every opportunity and to stay ahead of your competitors

With ICIS News you will be the first to read

Breaking news on the chemical markets that will impact your business

News on market moves deals and announcements that will affect your organisation

Force majeures closures and developments that influence your commodity prices

Expert analysis on industry trends and hot topics ndash know whatrsquos happening and why

Searchable archive with over 14 million articles from the past 10 years

Chemical Business News Base (CBNB) is a premium resource available on ICIS News It provides you with an extensive external source of upstream and downstream petrochemical news in summarised snapshots so you can quickly and easily get the latest updates on whatrsquos important to you

CBNB offers readers

Fast and consistent coverage on news facts figures from the upstream and downstream petrochemicals industry

Access to over 700 news sources including technical and trade journals company literature market research reports stockbroker reports books and directories

User-friendly search functionality to find articles most relevant to you from around the globe

Quick and easy-to-read summarised snapshots of articles with option to access full articles from the original source

ICIS Chemical Business digital magazine (ICB) Our global team of experts digests and summarises the key issues and their potential impact on the chemical markets offering a comprehensive overview of the key developments that matter most-along with informed opinion and in-depth analysis

ICB features include

In-depth insight into chemical price changes and their impact on the markets

Understand the detail behind the headline news stories

Find out about supply amp demand trends and the factors impacting them

Get the complete picture of the chemical markets ndash all in one e-magazine

Easy access via e-magazine and premium magazine website

Find out more wwwiciscomnews

ICIS News offers access to additional sources including the ICIS Chemical Business Magazine and Chemical Business News Base (CBNB)

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYPROPYLENE (PP)

SE ASIA PP PRICES MAY COME UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 AS SUPPLY LENGTHENSBy Leanne Tan

Southeast Asiarsquos polypropylene (PP) market may come under pressure in the second half of the year on account of lengthening regional supply and weak downstream demand

Spot prices have been on the rise for most of May buoyed by bullish sentiment in the Chinese market and firm upstream feedstock costs

Margins for PP makers have been lower on average compared with levels in the previous year

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refinery amp Petrochemicals is scheduled to start up its 400000 tonneyear PP production unit in the third quarter The project was initially scheduled to start up in the first quarter of 2018

While domestic demand will continue to outstrip local production the countryrsquos reliance on imports may be diminished when the new plant starts up

Converters in the country have been opting to keep inventories lean in the short term amid expectations that prices may eventually weaken when more domestic supply becomes available

ldquoBuyers donrsquot want to buy too much import cargoes now not just because prices are high but also because there will be more locally-produced materials very soonrdquo a Vietnamese trader said

In Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan is expected to start commercial production at its expanded PP facility in Pasir Gudang in June or July The plantrsquos capacity will be raised by 200000 tonnesyear from 400000 tonnesyear

Import availabilities from South Korea are expected to lengthen in the medium-to-long term with S-Oil expected to complete an olefin downstream complex (ODC) at its Onsan refinery in Ulsan which will include a

405000 tonneyear PP capacity

On the demand front weakness is likely to persist in the second half with converters and end-users likely to continue buying spot cargoes on a hand-to-mouth basis

Indonesiarsquos demand in particular has been below expectations since the start of 2018 and this is likely to continue in the second half of the year according to market players

Back to Quick Navigation | 39Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Some players said import demand for dutiable cargoes may increase in the second half of the year as this is typically when the government issues duty exemption facilities

The duty exemption facilities are issued on a yearly basis which enable converters to import some PP volumes without extra cost

In Malaysia the removal of the 6 goods and services tax (GST) so far has had no immediate impact on the PP market although there are some expectations the move could potentially boost demand in the consumer market further down the road

In Vietnam demand for PP flat yarn has entered a seasonal lull from May to early July and will not pick up until August when the summer harvest begins

PP is widely used in the manufacture of woven sacks (for rice sacks) flexible packaging carpets household appliances and automotive parts

Spot PP prices in southeast Asia have been an uptrend for most of the first half

The PP market begun the year on a bullish note with spot prices surging by almost 10 over the course of two months all-origins PP flat yarn prices peaked at $1295tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia on 2 March

Healthy demand in China helped to provide support to spot prices in southeast Asia in the first quarter with a tight global spot supply leading to further price escalations

Some suppliers pulled back from the southeast Asian spot market to capitalise on better netbacks in other countries including Japan and Pakistan leading to further curtailed spot availability in southeast Asia

The market rally started to lose steam in early March amid subdued demand and a build-up of domestic inventories in China after the Lunar New Year holidays

The bearish sentiment soon spilled over into southeast Asia with Chinese suppliers pushing some volumes into southeast Asia amid an open arbitrage window

Vietnam remains the market of choice for Chinese exporters and PP import prices in the country plummeted as the result of the lengthened spot availability

However the bearish run was short-lived and prices soon bottomed out in early April

Bullish momentum in the upstream crude and naphtha markets propelled spot prices of polymers higher

Despite lacklustre downstream demand price hikes in April and May were commonplace as producers sought higher asking prices in view of narrower margins

TIGHT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT CHINA PP MARKET DESPITE WEAK DEMANDBy Dora Xue

Tight supply would buoy up Chinarsquos polypropylene (PP) prices in the near term despite weak downstream demand

The market is expecting heavy production losses following recent unexpected outages at five domestic facilities from May and scheduled turnarounds at other plants

In the week ended on 1 June domestic prices for PP flat yarn in east China were assessed at Chinese yuan (CNY) 9075tonne after a steady increase from early April according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos import prices for the same material stood at $1245tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China largely tracking movement in the domestic market over the past two months according to ICIS data

The strong PP prices have also started to deter buyers from purchasing more spot cargoes

ldquoPP prices are too high We donrsquot want to store too much in our warehouserdquo a buyer said

Downstream demand typically goes on a lull in June and July but any downward pressure on prices will be negated by a further tightening of supply as major plants will be taken off line for maintenance

ldquoWhen the maintenance season finishes in late June [PP] prices may start to go downrdquo a trader said

Demand is considered weakest at Qingdao in the eastern Shandong province due to government-mandated production cuts and logistics restrictions ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (SCO Summit) on 9-10 June

As of 1 June the combined polyolefin inventories of Chinese petrochemical majors Sinopec and PetroChina have declined back to normal levels of 700000 tonnes from a high of 1m tonnes in early March market sources said

Import supply to China may not improve in the short term as suppliers still deem other

Back to Quick Navigation | 40Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

Back to Quick Navigation | 43Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 8: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

Domestic prices of IX in east China were now cheaper than imported prices the CFR northeast Asia price now commanding a small premium to the import parity of local spot discussions

With gasoline blending margins down and ample cheaper substitutes available demand for SX has also taken a hit

But supply remained tight for SX in China with buying interest strong in recent weeks although buyers have lowered bids in line with the fall in the domestic market

Inventory levels have recovered from just 900 tonnes in the middle of May and continue to hover around 5000 tonnes In 2017 weekly SX stockpiles in east China averaged 17172 tonnes

The supply situation was unlikely to ease with production of SX in the region limited due to increasing reliance on lighter feeds such as LPG

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian mixed xylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 08Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Pricing IntelligenceAccess independent price assessments that meet IOSCOrsquos PRA Principles and are widely trusted and used as benchmarks in the industry ICIS coverage is unrivalled with pricing data and information for over 180 commodities across all key regions Make fast and confident decisions and determine the best time to buy or sell with access to l Spot and contract price assessments including personalised alerts to notify you of changes l In-depth analysis and price history to help you track and understand price drivers and trends l Easy access to information with multiple delivery options

Analytics SolutionsICIS offers a unique combination of analytics tools designed to help you navigate and optimise opportunities in an ever-changing market making complex analytics simple for you Our solutions help you react quicker to market developments in a demand-led price-sensitive global marketplace enabling you to l Spot opportunities and minimise risk l Shape future strategy l Maintain a competitive advantage l Supplement your in-house analytics

Specialist ServicesThe global team of ICIS experts brings extensive knowledge of industry sectors through

Expand your knowledge to navigate complex markets more confidently

Get the latest insights into current issues and trends from a hand-picked selection of experts

Get tailored advice and guidance to address your companyrsquos key challenges

Industry NewsOur extensive global network of local experts report breaking news stories that impact chemical markets influence commodity prices and affect your daily business decisions Alerts and our one-stop platform keep you fully informed and support your planning with access to l Real-time news round-the-clock l Analysis and likely market impact l Production news and force majeures

Supply amp Demand DatabaseReceive an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical supply chain for over 100 petrochemical commodities Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacity production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040 ndash providing you with a long-term view of the rapidly changing petrochemical market The database enables you to l Determine the local or regional scenario in a global context to support your planning l Identify evaluate and optimise opportunities l Validate commercial and growth strategies l Identify and manage financial or investment risks

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SPECIALISED TRAINING INDUSTRY CONFERENCES BESPOKE CONSULTANCY

AROMATICSPARAXYLENE

ASIA PX FACES DOWNWARD PRESSURE AS SUPPLY LENGTHENS INTO H2By Samuel Wong

Asiarsquos paraxylene (PX) prices are likely to face downward pressure going into the second half of 2018 due to new capacities coming on stream with no additional downstream units to absorb the supply

A total of 205myear of new PX capacities will be added in the second half including PetroRabighrsquos 135m tonneyear unit in Saudi Arabia and Nghi Son Refinery and Petrochemicalrsquos 700000 tonneyear unit in Vietnam

Asiarsquos PX intermonth spread is currently at a backwardation of $3-4tonne down from $12-15tonne in the first quarter as market participants were gradually pricing in the additional supply PX supply

There are expectations that the market will flip into a contango once smooth operations are achieved at the new PX units

Among new PX capacities PetroRabighrsquos new PX unit is expected to achieve full operations from the third-quarter onward after suffering some technical hiccups in the second quarter

Nghi Son on the other hand is expected to start exporting cargoes from its new PX unit from the second-half of July according to market participants

Asia will be in oversupply of PX as the total capacity increase would require 31m tonnesyear of downstream purified terephthalic acid (PTA) capacities but no firm PTA start-ups are on tap in the next six months

Moreover Chinarsquos Fuhaichuang Petrochemical formerly Dragon Aromatics (Zhangzhou) is planning to resume operations at its idled complex in the third quarter this year after more than three years of shutdown

Its Zhangzhou complex consists of a 16m tonneyear PX plant and a 45m tonneyear downstream PTA plant which constitutes three 15m tonneyear lines two of which have resumed operations since late 2017

According to market participants the company is likely to restart the third PTA line once smooth operations at its PX unit is achieved

In India JBF Grouprsquos 125m tonneyear PTA unit is supposed to begin production in the third quarter of 2018 but the schedule is still fluid according to market players

The company has recently entered into a deal with existing investor KRR for the private equity firm to acquire a majority stake in certain company assets as the company enters into discussions to restructure its debt on 18 May

In Europe Indorama Ventures plans to start up an idled Portugal-based 700000 tonneyear PTA unit which it recently acquired in July The plant formerly known as Artlant PTA originally came on stream in 2012 but closed in 2014 for financial reasons and bar a brief period in operation was subsequently idled

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Thailandrsquos Indorama Ventures acquired Atlant PTA in the fourth quarter of 2017

Asian PX prices are currently above those of main feedstock naphtha by more than the breakeven level of $250tonne while PX production via feedstock isomer-xylene through the parex process and feedstock toluene through the toluene disproportionation (TDP) route have also remained economically viable

All these will mean that PX producers will maintain high operating rates at their existing plants

Spot sales have been increasing amid strong production across the region A southeast Asia-based producer is currently offering around 15000-20000 tonnesmonth of cargoes double to triple the monthly volumes it offered in the previous year

The price gap between PX and naphtha has narrowed to $315tonne in the second quarter falling from the peak of around $425tonne in end-February as the market started pricing in the expected increase in supply

In the first half of the year Asiarsquos PX production losses were estimated at 167m tonnes due to a heavy turnaround schedule

Negotiations for PX Asian Contract Price (ACP) failed for three consecutive months from April after successful monthly settlements in the first quarter ndash when producers and end-users were in agreement that supply was restricted by the turnarounds amid healthy demand in Asia

Back to Quick Navigation | 10Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian paraxylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 11Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Arbitrage economics for deep-sea materials into Asia has largely remained shut since the start of the year mainly due to a tightly supplied market in the US

However Asia does not need the supply from the US ndash which ships out 10000-15000 tonnes of supply to this region on a monthly basis ndash once the new PX units achieved smooth operations according to market participants

Toward the fourth quarter a tightening of supply may provide support to PX prices with several plants in the key China market due for turnaround

PX prices are also expected to track movement in the upstream crude and naphtha prices as well as downstream PTA futures values

AROMATICSSTYRENE MONOMER

ASIA SM UP ON LIMITED SUPPLY TIGHTNESS TO EASE IN H2By Deborah Lee

Asiarsquos styrene monomer (SM) market ndash supported in the first half of 2018 by tight supply ndash is expected to see more arbitrage cargoes from the US and Europe besides completion of turnarounds which may put pressure on prices for the rest of the year

Already April and May cargoes have been loaded from the US and have either found buyers or are likely to do so in South Korea

Furthermore Chinarsquos turnarounds will largely be over by end June with demand for imports expected to fall as domestic production returns to normal

A final anti-dumping duty (ADD) decision by China over SM imports from South Korea Taiwan and the US is also being closely watched by market participants

The China ministry of commerce is expected to announce its final results of its ADD probe in June

Prices are expected to come off in the second half of the year as a result of easing of supply and already there is a steep backwardation in the market with the JuneJuly spread at $65-85tonne

The CFR China marker started off at $1335tonne the start of the year and peaked at $156250tonne early June The SM assessment has since softened but remained above the $1400tonne level

They were largely supported in the first half because of limited arbitrage arrivals amid unplanned plant issues and scheduled turnarounds in Europe and the US while the CFR (cost amp freight) China market was hit by the ADD imposed on South Korean Taiwanese and US origin cargoes

Besides planned plant maintenance in the US and Europe unexpected issues at several plants disrupted production further

In France Totalrsquos 600000 tonneyear SM plant in Gonfreville was affected by an outage at the producerrsquos cracker in the same location early February

But the biggest impact was from CosMarrsquos unplanned shutdown caused by equipment failure due to the polymerization at its purification units

Production at its 118m tonneyear plant in Carville Louisiana resumed April 10 nearly three months after it was shut mid-January

The tight supply situation almost guaranteed that there would be no arbitrage cargoes from the US and Europe heading into Asia

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But this was further secured by ADDs imposed on some of Chinarsquos key suppliers of SM as part of the Chinese authoritiesrsquo preliminary decision in February

This had greatly reduced options for the largest importer of SM cargoes in Asia

China which imported over 3m tonnes of SM in 2017 has had to turn to the Middle East southeast Asia and Japan to supplement cargoes it had received before from countries affected by ADD

Other macroeconomic factors boosted the CFR China assessment -- a stronger yuan rendered US dollar imports more competitive versus domestic cargoes for one

China also lowered VAT rates from 17 to 16 effective May 1 further bolstering interest in imported cargoes

Prices fell in end-February as some sellers offloaded cargoes due to an influx of arrivals

Concerns over end user demand emerged as the second quarter was expected to be a good demand season for SM and its derivatives but in reality buyers were slow to emerge deterred by high prices

In China in particular demand was slow to pick up after the Lunar New Year holiday because downstream producers were well stocked as operating rates were maintained during the typically low demand season in winter

This was in anticipation of rising SM prices due to the ADD probe

The additional spot cargoes in the market combined with lackluster demand pressured spot prices lower The CFR China assessment on 21 March fell to $1270tonne

As news of more turnarounds planned within China emerged domestic supply of SM was looking increasingly tight

With many plants due to be shut over April to June production was persistently lowered over the quarter and expectations of tight supply pushed the market higher again

Spot prices remained on an upswing as inventory levels slumped and prompt supply was limited

Stockpiles of SM in east China fell to a multi-year low as of 30 May at 37500 tonnes

Back to Quick Navigation | 13Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian styrene monomer (SM) markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 14Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Cargoes hitting Chinarsquos shores were not sufficient to meet the countryrsquos growing appetite for SM particularly as the Q3 manufacturing for exports season was fast approaching

Downstream producers however were struggling to pass on rising feedstock costs to their buyers

Thinning margins have led to some mulling lowering operating rates at its resin plants

Petrochemicals Analytics SolutionsOur new and enhanced petrochemical analytics and insight puts you in a stronger position so you can optimise your trades plans and strategies in order to secure a competitive advantage

ICIS is the only information provider to offer this unique combination of analytics tools as one subscription alongside pricing data and analysis

Live Supply Disruption TrackerPlant outages and maintenance for the next 12 months plus the impact of capacity changes

3 Pre-empt competition and capitalise on trades impacted by outages

3 Be aware of market shortages with a real-time view to manage risk and ensure security of stock

3 Negotiate better prices with other market players

Supply amp Demand OutlooksQuarterly global supply and demand review and outlook for key value chains and regions

3 Support your short-term strategy with upstream and downstream market sentiment and expectations for the current quarter at a regional level

3 Expand opportunities in international trade3 Understand at-a-glance the regional supply and

demand outlook across six key commodity chains

Price Drivers AnalyticsCross-commodity and cross-regional analysis of importexport parity substitution trends and feedstockdownstream spreads

3 Gain new context and negotiating tools in addition to ICIS price assessments

3 Pre-empt competition and spot opportunities with visual charts and impact commentaries

3 Reduce the time spent making manual calculations and spend more time on strategy and acting on market opportunities

4

360 view of the market l See the global market from

all anglesl Achieve better price

flexibilityl Enrich strategy plans with

validated quality datasets

Real-time information l Powered by 43000 plant

data in the ICIS Supply andDemand Database and 247global market coverage byICIS editors

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Complex analytics made simple l Real-time visualisation with

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AROMATICSTOLUENE

CHINA IMPORTS TO UNDERPIN ASIA TOLUENE MARKET IN H2 2018By Trixie Yap

Asiarsquos toluene market direction in the second half of this year will be determined by the buying activity from Chinese importers which has been the key factor influencing its prices so far in 2018

FOB (free on board) Korea prices which have been fluctuating in a wider-than-expected range for the past month closed at $760-785tonne in the week ended 1 June for June and July-loading parcels

The decreases at the close on 1 June marked the end of three weeksrsquo worth of stable-to-firm price trend

This followed weaker import demand from China for July which mainly stemmed from the ending of traders replenishing shore tank inventories at eastern ports such as Jiangsu

CFR (cost amp freight) China prices were in a sideways trend for most parts of early 2018 up to March at $690-765tonne

Prices only picked up after April and hit a peak of $835tonne CFR China after fluctuating in the $700-710tonne CFR China range for a few weeks

Unlike earlier expectations when market players were hoping for Chinese import demand to peak after the post early-March Lunar New Year period CFR China buying activity remained muted and only rose after May because of improved demand from the gasoline blenders

Blending demand received a boost because of lower gasoline production from state-owned refineries amid a spate of turnarounds in China ndash mainly in the eastern regions ndash starting end April to June

The better blending economics for toluene in early May particularly for the oil majors paved the way for demand as well

Back to Quick Navigation | 15Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Toluene-isomer xylenes spread on an ex-tank basis was wider with toluene being much more price friendly for gasoline production as compared to isomer xylene

With the 1 May implementation of a new online tax-filing system for oil and chemical products oil majors had no choice but to buy blend stocks themselves

Back to Quick Navigation | 16Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

instead of gasoline cargoes directly as the government was effectively making private gasoline blending activities unworkable as these blenders will not be able to potentially avoid tax payments via the paper filing system now

The presence of higher-than-expected inventories at east China main ports ndash stock levels hit a high of 76700 tonnes in early March ndash contributed further to the later timing of import demand Inventories only fell significantly after April (see chart above)

The only key issue hampering import demand from improving further was the

generally weak off taking activities from the downstream chemical sectors as isocynates benzoic acid benzyl chloride and other types of solvent products

The downstream demand was hampered because of low and unchanged operating rates because of stricter environmental regulations imposed by the government since second-half 2017

Looking ahead however the bleak demand situation for toluene from the chemical downstream sector could reverse soon starting August-September because of Wan Hua Chemicalrsquos new TDI plant start-up

The TDI plantsrsquo nameplate capacity is currently 300000 tonnesyear which could equate to around 160000 tonnesyear of toluene usage according to several market players

While this may not directly represent an increase in demand for CFR China import toluene cargoes it is likely to boost domestic toluene demand within north China particularly Shandong region and allow for potential arbitrage flows within the country

This in turn may support import parity of yuan-denominated ex-tank prices and allow for healthy distributor margins ndash if they consider to buy CFR China cargoes which is a key driver for majority of these import buyers

Market participants in China were quick to note also that supply increments ndash following at least three new plant start-ups this year ndash will outpace demand increments whichcould pose a problem in determining whichwill have a larger impact on import demandand prices

ldquoThe additional capacities may not be sold into the merchant market because there will still be captive usage since these producers are refineries with gasoline requirements and fulfilmentsrdquo one east China-based trader said

Ultimately it will be dependent on how the internal consumption for gasoline ndash of these new start-ups ndash will pan out leading up to the year-end

Changes in average operating rates of state-owned refineries due to turnarounds or outages will be another direction driver

Aside from China demand-supply fundamentals the other key price driver is the supply balance within Asia

Supply has been generally long between January and May owing to the stable operating plant rates and overall sufficient availability in southeast Asia a key net exporter within the region

Availability of northeast Asian cargoes was curtailed at some points in time ndash particularly in February and March ndashbecause of turnarounds

Back to Quick Navigation | 17Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 18Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

However supply has been steadily rising for cargoes loading in May and June ndash with the market seeing an additional of close to 30000 tonnes of product from South Korea alone ndash as some downstream plants had ongoing shutdown plans all the way till early July (see right)

All of these cargoes as expected are heading to China because of the opened arbitrage window for exports during the same time period

The increment in excess spot supply from South Korea ndash going forward ndash will be driven by downstream spreads for TDP operators since the benzene-toluene spreads have been narrowing consistently from March when the spreads hit a peak

The healthy spreads between toluene and xylenes (para and isomer) have been the only saving grace for the TDP market

ldquoBenzene demand-supply fundamentals are likely to continue remaining weak with increments in supply still expected from Middle East and Vietnam from June so that is going to still put pressure on TDP operators whether to run their unit with more toluene or less toluene [since they can adjust the amount of feedstock]rdquo one northeast Asian end-user said

ldquoBenzene demand-supply fundamentals are likely to continue remaining weak with increments in supply still expected from Middle East and Vietnam from June so that is going to still put pressure on TDP operators whether to run their unit with more toluene or less toluene [since they can adjust the amount of feedstock]rdquo one northeast Asian end-user said

There is also hope that supply will be curbed again in the autumn season ndash when several plants start their planned maintenances ndash to provide a temporary relief to the readily sufficient spot availability

Ultimately if Chinarsquos importing activity continues to be robust there will be no issues with them soaking up the excess supplies at any point of time

ldquoThe key issue is how much these buyers can procure and how long their buying activities can last but so far it has been very sporadic and capped to short time frames because of them being risk averserdquo one southeast Asian trader said

Back to Quick Navigation | 19Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian toluene markets

BASE OILSBASE OILS

ASIA MIDEAST BASE OILS FIRM IN H1 BUT SOME PULLBACK LIKELY IN H2By Jasmine Khoo amp Izham Ahmad

Asia base oils Group I SN150 and Group II 150N prices are expected to remain firm on persistently low supply whereas the heavy grades - Group I SN500 and Group II 500600N - could come under pressure on ample availability

Into the second half of the year base oils supply from Iran are expected to be stable with no known maintenance plans due over the following few months from June and that could add further pressure on prices amid the weak demand outlook

Only one Iranian refiner is due for a maintenance shutdown in the second half of the year possibly sometime in September according to market sources

In Group II like in Asia short supply of 150N and 500600N is expected to support prices in coming months but the Group II segment in the Middle East is a much smaller market for producers

Major Group II and III producers in Saudi Arabia Qatar Bahrain and UAE also continue to focus on their traditional markets outside of the Middle East due to stronger demand and higher margins

Brightstock remained largely stable for June in terms of pricing following deals done at parity with Mayrsquos levels but market players maintained a cautious stance towards brightstock pricing which would typically see downward pressure towards the end of the year

The winter season in parts of Asia would typically herald a period of slow cargo uptake for brightstock as transportation logistics get more challenging

As for Group III base oils northeast Asian-origin lots are expected to see support in spot prices from June as seen from healthy uptake among buyers amid short supply from regional suppliers

Similarly in the Middle East market Group I prices started the year on a firm note

Around mid-February SN500 prices traded up to $80750tonne FOB (free on board) Iran their highest levels since ICIS began tracking the data in November 2015

SN150 also traded their record highs about the same time hitting $72750tonne FOB Iran

These record highs were held until early May despite buyers at the time showing increasing resistance to the higher levels and the uncertainty that took hold of the market ahead of a deadline for the US to decide on whether it would remain in the Iran nuclear deal

On 8 May US president Donald Trump announced that the US will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal and re-impose sanctions on Tehran consequently driving up crude prices to new highs since late 2014

Iranrsquos base oils prices were largely stable in that week but market outlook has been clouded with uncertainties following the USrsquo decision to re-impose sanctions on the country

Group I SN500 prices were stable through the early half of May at $780-805tonne FOB Iran while Group I SN150 were holding at $710-745tonne FOB Iran since early-February according to ICIS data

Prices began to decline around mid-May when it became more apparent that the increased sanctions would cause at least some disruptions to business dealings with Iranian entities

Market players said they encountered difficulties in financial transactions with Iran and many financial institutions were reluctant to take on any dealings involving Iran-based businesses for fear of conflicting with the US sanctions

On the supply side market players in the UAE said there were sufficient cargoes built up over recent months and as such

there was less demand for further spot deals in Group I particularly with the threat of renewed sanctions

Mid-May also marked the start of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan which is a typically slow season for the Middle East

Certain manufacturing activities are reduced as factories observed shorter operating hours and as many workers took some vacation time as well

The Eid ul-Fitr long holidays followed the end of Ramadan in mid-June

Asiarsquos base oils market trends for certain widely-traded Group I grades snapped out of persistent uptrend in late April against a backdrop of increasingly squeezed buyersrsquo margins and waning demand

Steady gains in FOB Asia spot prices were recorded since September 2017 on the back of regional shortages as demand surpassed output

This was partly fuelled by natural disasters in the US when Hurricane Harvey disrupted between 20 and 25 of the countryrsquos refining capacity in August

The disruption to base oils production at some units led to increased appetite for deep-sea shipments from Asia to the US

In the current market SN500 prices registered the greatest drops among the ICIS assessed grades shedding slightly more than 12 of its spot pricing between 13 April and 25 May ICIS data showed

Market participants attributed the price dip to lackluster demand brought about by a supply overhang of domestically-produced SN400 in the local Chinese market

Competitive pricing of SN400 amid ample availability curtailed import appetite among China-based buyers for SN500 of Asian origin especially since some buyers were still holding on to sufficient stocks for the near term

Back to Quick Navigation | 20Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Brightstock prices also softened reflecting increasingly squeezed buyersrsquo margins following steep gains seen from 22 September 2017 to 23 March 2018 in FOB Asia export prices

Some buyers were also sitting on sufficient inventories from active procurement earlier in the year leading to waned demand

This led refiners and traders to cut offers to encourage cargo uptake for May shipment cargoes

Group II 150N and 500600N prices largely held up on the back of potential supply woes in the summer season amid scheduled shutdowns at major Asian refineries

Taiwanrsquos Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) is expected to conduct planned maintenance in July market sources said

This led market players to hold on to expectations of buoyed spot prices for Group II base oils in the near term though significant increase is not expected for certain grades such as 500600N amid ample spot availability in the region

Group III 4 and 6cst base oils largely continued their steady price uptrend reflecting short supply among key South Korean Group III suppliers

8cst base oils of northeast Asian origin amid comparatively greater availability than its lighter counterparts saw less gains in prices since the beginning of 2018

South Korean-origin Group III base oils prices were mostly buoyant despite an influx of Middle East-origin Group III base oils into the northeast Asian market since November 2017 as South Korean-origin Group III users adhered largely to using the same material due to formulation restrictions and related OEM approvals

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian base oils markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 21Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPURIFIED TEREPHTHALIC ACID (PTA)

ASIA PTA SUPPLY TO LENGTHEN IN H2 ON INDIA CHINA PLANT START-UPSBy Samuel Wong

Supply of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in Asia is expected to lengthen in the second half of 2018 as new capacities will start up in the major markets of India and China amid a slowdown in demand

Major plants would have resumed production after unplanned outages to ease the current global supply tightness that has been driving up Asian prices while demand typically weakens in the third quarter

Asian PTA prices may start to come under pressure as fresh supply will hit the markets when new major regional plants start production in the third quarter

ldquoMarket sentiment is currently pessimistic about the outlook however this can quickly change if we see a sudden uptick in downstream demandrdquo a China-based producer said

In India JBF Grouprsquos 125m tonneyear PTA unit in Mangalore is expected to start up in the third quarter although the schedule is still fluid according to several market participants

In China Fuhaichuang Petrochemical formerly known as Dragon Aromatics (Zhangzhou) is planning to resume operations at its complex in the third quarter of 2018 after a prolonged shutdown

Its petrochemical complex in Zhangzhou has a 45m tonneyear PTA plant comprisings three 15m tonneyear lines two of which have been in operation since end-2017 The company is likely to restart the third line once smooth operations at its upstream paraxylene (PX) unit at the site is achieved market players said

In Europe Indorama Ventures Portugal plans to start up in July an idled 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Sines Thailand-based Indorama Ventures Ltd acquired the

plant from Portuguese Artlant PTA in late 2017

All these factors should see the narrowing of the price gap between Chinarsquos import and domestic markets as early as July after widening steadily from March to May

As of 12 June the gap stood at $96tonne down from the peak of about $111tonne on 30 May

Asiarsquos PTA prices are currently steady at firm levels Regional end-users preferred to procure cargoes on a need-to basis and were not keen on building inventories

Future movement will depend on market conditions in the downstream polyester industry

The wide price gap in Chinarsquos import and domestic markets has been deterring Chinese buyers from tapping the international spot market for supplies since March while demand was healthy especially in the downstream polyethylene terephthalate (PET) markets

Tight global supply in the first half saw Asian producers shipping out cargoes to the Middle East as well as Europe which was hit by unplanned outages in Belgium and Poland in April

Back to Quick Navigation | 22Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

In Europe BP Chemical on 15 April declared a force majeure at its Belgium PTA unit and a second force majeure on 17 May PKN Orlen on 23 April declared a force majeure at its Wloclawek PTA unit in Poland which was subsequently lifted on 2 May with spot cargoes from the plant limited until after a planned maintenance in SeptemberOctober 2018

Within Asia the southeastern region has had PTA plant outages and had to procure cargoes from the northeast in the preceding two months

Regional supply tightened further with the unexpected shutdown of Hanwha General Chemicalrsquos 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Daesan prompting a force majeure declaration on 21 May

In the first half of 2018 strong growth in demand in the downstream polyester markets in Asia particularly China supported the rally in PTA prices amid tight supply

Downstream polyester markets were enjoying positive margins keeping demand for feedstock PTA healthy

In the key China market operating rates at polyester units were higher compared with the previous year

The countryrsquos PTA production losses in January-June 2018 on the other hand were estimated at around 134m tonnes due to planned and unplanned outages

Asiarsquos PTA producers were largely enjoying healthy margins on the back of steady demand growth in the downstream polyester markets Firmer upstream energy

and feedstock PX prices have also buoyed PTA prices

In January to May 2018 Brent crude traded at $6692-7616bbl up by about 25 year

on year while PX prices were at $938-994tonne representing a 15 increase over the same period

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian purified terephthalic acid (PTA)) markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 23Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPOLYETHYLENE TEREPHTHALATE (PET)

ASIA PET TO REMAIN FIRM IN Q3 AS TIGHT SUPPLY SUPPORT PRICESBy Hazel Goh

Asian polyethylene terephthalate (PET) market is likely to remain firm in the third quarter on the back of tight supply a trend that has supported prices so far in 2018

Recently PET tight supply is a result of production cuts in Asia and Europe that have not had a clear estimated date of resuming normal operations

China Resources Packaging had cut production at its PET lines in Changzhou by 50 following notice from the government to reduce pollution in end-May It is not known for how long the production cuts will remain in place

In Europe there had been feedstock purified terephthalic acid (PTA) supply tightness leading to recent PET production cuts and force majeure by Novapet and JBF respectively

Many buyers had been purchasing on a need-to basis expecting that firm prices are unsustainable and will come down Subsequently they did not stock up cargoes ahead of the peak summer demand season for countries in the northern hemisphere

The reality turned out different and they had to accept higher prices as production cuts kept the supply tight

PET used to track feedstock price movements closely as it had been an oversupplied market and producers typically operate on thin margins

The oversupply situation changed and tightness was first felt in the third quarter of 2017 when plant closures by JBF RAK in the UAE and Belgium and by Mossi amp Ghisolfi (MampG) in the US Mexico and Brazil following financial tightness in the two PET-producing companies

Hurricane Harvey that hit the US in the third quarter led to further production cuts in the US

Back to Quick Navigation | 24Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 1

From then on supply remained tight as the plant under JBF RAK in the UAE and the former MampG plant in the US that had been acquired by Far Eastern remained shut for extended period of time even into 2018

Market players previously had concerns about where China will export its material when final anti-dumping duties (ADD) - heard to be at the same level as thepreliminary duties of 398-530 - wereimposed on its cargoes into Japan inJanuary

Japan was the top exporting destination for Chinese cargoes before the ADD following which the exports dropped drastically

While other producers such as Taiwanese southeast Asian Indian and South Korean producers sold more volumes into Japan Chinese makers sold to other markets that were relinquished by the other producers

Table 1 shows a significant difference between 2016 and 2017 in Chinarsquos export volumes to key destinations from the January-to-March period

Ranked by volume starting with largestvolume as 1

There is an ongoing anti-dumping duty (ADD) investigation by the US on PET cargoes from Brazil Pakistan Indonesia Taiwan and South Korea

The Commerce Department issued the preliminary dumping rates for Indonesia at 1316 South Korea at 881-10141 and Taiwan at 902-1189 in May Final determinations will be issued by 8 November

Even so some producers from the countries under investigation continued to receive buying enquiries from the US amid the current tight supply situation

There will be some upcoming new capacities expected in Q3 as shown in table 2 that may bring about a more balanced supply to meet the demand

The US plant acquired by Far Eastern is estimated to restart in June-July which should also ease the supply tightness

Even with the new capacities and plant restarts market participants think it is unlikely that PET market will return to the oversupply situation seen in the previous years

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PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian PET markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 25Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 2

Our English-language report coverage includes

Styrene MEG Propylene

BTX Methanol Base Oil

BPA PE MTBE

Phenol PP Mixed AromaticsAcetone Oxo-Alcohol

Trusted industryintelligence for Chinarsquoscommodity marketsDevelopments in Chinarsquos petrochemicals industrycontinue to affect the global marketplace It istherefore vital for domestic and internationalmarket players to keep track of changes withinthe country to know where opportunities lie

ICIS has long been recognised as a reliablesource of information our locally-based expertscompile reports and analyses in English tosupport industry participants dealing with Chinamarkets or seeking to trade or invest

Pricing informationOur pricing data provide key insights into pricetrends in China to support your short-termdecision-making negotiations and analyses

bull Import and export spot and contract pricesbull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity

and upstreamdownstream marketsbull Data on inventory levels and price marginsbull Plant and production news

Petrochemicals Analytics SolutionsProviding our customers with a 360-degree view of the Chinese market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker - real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for thenext 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics - key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock anddo wnstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlooks

Available for key chemical commodities

wwwiciscomchina

Discover how we can meet your market information needs

enquiryiciscom

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESMONOETHYLENE GLYCOL (MEG)

ASIA MEG TO SEE DEMAND TAPERING LOWER SUPPLY IN EARLY H2By Eric Su

The Asian monoethylene glycol (MEG) market could see demand slowing down from the end of June while supply will be reduced from a number of plant turnarounds

Inventories are expected to decline in June after offtake rates at Chinese main ports rose sharply in the last two weeks of May because of an uptick in demand from downstream polyester buyers

Demand for MEG is also expected to remain strong in the first half of June boosted by high polyester production rates of above 85 and modestly low inventory levels

A slowdown in demand may take place in the second half of June as the traditional manufacturing peak period nears its end in July

Meanwhile supply conditions could tighten because of the plant turnarounds in northeast Asia

However supply from the Middle East will likely resume to normal levels given that there were no further delay in shipments in May

MEG prices in Asia have registered year-on-year growth rates in the months to June this year

MEG prices have mostly hovered above $900tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China Main Port (CMP) while prices were mostly below $900tonne CFR CMP in 2017

Prices have been volatile in 2018 with major price swings seen on a near monthly basis since February

MEG prices in first quarter of 2018 continued the uptrend seen in the fourth quarter of 2017 rising to $1030tonne CFR CMP in early March from $922tonne CFR

CMP in late December as the higher-than-expected growth in downstream polyester fuelled bullish market sentiment

Polyester growth in 2017 was estimated at above 10 beating an originally bearish expectation of 2-3

A price downtrend was observed in March with the MEG weekly average price losing nearly 10 of its value to $929tonne CFR CMP by end-March

The price decline coincided with a sharp influx of imported cargoes which was likely a result of over-procurement in January

Back to Quick Navigation | 26Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

and February when prices were trending upwards

March 2018 import volumes rose to nearly 1m tonnes a record three-year high according to official China customs data

MEG prices rebounded in April rising by around 9 from end-March to $1014tonne CFR CMP by end-April ahead of the traditional peak period for the downstream polyester sector The average polyester production rate rose to above 85 during the period

MEG also achieved its to-date weekly peak of $1042tonne CFR CMP in the week ending 20 April

Supply tightness was also observed in the Chinese domestic market because of shipment delays from the Middle East and logistical issues at China main ports over the same period

The lack of availability of prompt cargoes also led to an atypical price spread between April and May delivery parcels

Normally the spread between arrived-at-port and far-term arrival cargoes is at $0-10tonne CFR CMP but this widened to $20-30tonne CFR CMP This drove concerns of sharp price adjustments in May once April deliveries were fulfilled

These concerns came true as MEG prices

began to slide in May MEG weekly prices stood at $928tonne CFR CMP in the last week of May falling from $1003tonne CFR CMP in early May

High inventory levels have also weighed on MEG prices Inventory levels were above 900000 tonnes from early May onward rising to 938000 tonnes by in late March Most market participants deemed inventory levels above 900000 tonnes to be high

The increase in inventory levels in May were largely attributed to the arrival of Middle East shipments which were previously due for arrival in April

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian MEG markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 27Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSETHYLENE

NE ASIA ETHYLENE H2 OUTLOOK HINGES ON NEW SUPPLY SM PLANTBy Yeow Pei Lin

Northeast (NE) Asiarsquos ethylene (C2) second-half 2018 outlook is uncertain as several crackers are scheduled for maintenance but such production losses could be offset by the start up of a new plant and cargoes from outside the region

More than 20 crackers in Asia are slated to undergo maintenance in 2018 with the estimated capacity losses totalling more than 185m tonnes Most of the turnarounds in the first half of the year were concentrated in Japan ndash a key exporter to China

However several more companies are to carry out turnarounds in June and the rest of the year

The impact on the regional balance will depend on the start-up progress of a new facility in South Korea and on whether the strong exports from southeast Asia and Europe in the first half of 2018 will continue

Shipments from Yeosu South Korea will start to slow down in August ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at complexes in that region

Exports will recover by December when Lotte Chemical brings on-stream an added capacity of 200000 tonnesyear at its Yeosu cracker

The facility will undergo an expansion during a turnaround from late September to October

Shipments from Ulsan another petrochemical cluster in South Korea will grow in the second half of 2018

Newcomer S-Oil is expected to begin commercial operations at its residue upgrading complex (RUC) in Onsan in the second half of June

The companyrsquos entire ethylene output of up

to around 200000 tonnesyear is intended for the merchant market as it does not have any downstream plants

Exports from southeast Asian producers will continue to be driven by the higher value from ethylene sales in the ethylene versus polyethylene (PE) trade-off

There will however be supply constraints

Four crackers in the region will undergo

maintenance and the affected producers include ExxonMobil and PTT Global Chemicals (PTTGC) that were regular exporters in the first half of 2018

Exports from Europe will likely be influenced by the performance of the PE sector

The outlook for the PE market in Europe is uncertain given the growing prospect of competitively-priced exports from the new US plants

Back to Quick Navigation | 28Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Ethylene costs in the US have been at low levels since early 2018 as production growth outpaces that for consumption

Since late 2017 about 3m tonnesyear of new ethylene capacity and about 35m tonnesyear of new PE capacity have started up in the US

The new crackers have been running well but several of the new PE plants struggled to reach full operating rates

Exports from Saudi Arabia are expected to be constrained by increased domestic consumption

Petro Rabigh announced in April that the last few plants in its Phase 2 project including a 75000 tonneyear ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) unit have started up

The companyrsquos ethylene exports could fall further in the second half of 2018 following the completion of its PE plant maintenance shutdowns earlier in the year

Chinarsquos import demand is poised for further growth when a new 260000 tonneyear styrene monomer (SM) plant starts up in the third quarter as planned

Anhui Haoyuan Chemical will be operating the unit in Fuyang Anhui on a standalone basis as its plans to build a methanol-to-olefin (MTO) plant have been put on hold amid high methanol prices

The plant will require around 78000 tonnes of ethylene annually to operate at maximum capacity

Based on the above factors it was not immediately clear if the ethylene prices in the second half will follow the volatile trend they displayed in the first five months of 2018

NE Asia spot ethylene prices were volatile from January to May as the impact of a heavy regional cracker turnaround schedule and strong Chinese demand was at times outweighed by strong exports from southeast Asia the Middle East and Europe

The market started the year at above a two and a half year high of $1415tonne CFR (cost amp freight) NE Asia in early January

Subsequent transacted prices fluctuated within a low $1200stonne to mid $1300stonne CFR NE Asia band in the five months ended 31 May

Prices in the first quarter were initially weighed down by ample supply from producers in the Middle East and Asia due to a series of PE plant shutdowns - both planned and unplanned

That was despite strong pre-Lunar New Year holiday restocking activities in China

Demand was bolstered by the start up of a 500000 tonneyear non-integrated SM plant and generally healthy downstream margins for producers outside the PE sector

End-users were also keen to build up their inventories because of the slow progress in their 2018 term contract discussions ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at facilities of key exporters in the region

In addition a major ethylene oxide (EO) maker was seeking more import cargoes following a disruption in supply from its upstream MTO unit The plant was shut twice between late November and the first half of February because of high feedstock methanol costs

The market recovered in early March in line with the start of the annual cracker turnaround season in northeast Asia where

scheduled capacity losses in 2018 will be overall higher than the previous year

That explained why the countryrsquos exports from January to April slumped by 14 year-on-year to 201274 tonnes

In late April northeast Asiarsquos spot prices fell again after a surprisingly large quantity of deep-sea spot cargoes were sold into Asia for delivery between the middle of May and the first half of June

There were at least 55000-60000 tonnes of cargoes from Europe in addition to 11000 tonnes of US supply for that delivery period Europe was in a long position because of derivative maintenance shutdowns and production problems

Continued strong exports from southeast Asia owing to downstream production issues and the weak performance of the linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) market contributed to the downbeat sentiment

The ample supply outweighed Chinarsquos robust import demand

Buying interest in China was strong for April and May arrival cargoes on the back

Back to Quick Navigation | 29Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

of healthy downstream margins for certain downstream markets such as SM EO and monoethylene glycol (MEG)

Ethylene buyers in China were also keen to book deep-sea cargoes to offset the expected regional production losses from cracker turnarounds

Prices rebounded quickly in mid-May

aided by a bullish SM market and reduced domestic supply

Some MTO operators lowered production in May as high feedstock methanol costs led to squeezed margins while a key producer in east China lowered its cracker run rates unexpectedly

Sharp increases in feedstock naphtha costs

which tracked gains on crude oil futures also helped set a floor to the earlier price declines

By early June spot ethylene prices had touched a 20-week high raising questions on whether the market will see similar price volatility in the second half of 2018

Producers will turn hawkish if the outlook for crude and naphtha markets remains upbeat

Back to Quick Navigation | 30Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSPROPYLENE

TIGHT NE ASIA PROPYLENE SUPPLY TO LIMIT H2 PRICE FLUCTUATIONSBy Joson Ng

Tight propylene (C3) supply in northeast Asia amid a heavy turnaround schedule in 2018 will continue supporting regional prices of the material into the second half

Sellers are likely to continue passing on firmer costs to buyers which are wary of October when heavy propylene production losses are expected

Buyersrsquo resistance in the key China market would keep any further increase in propylene prices in check with some downstream producers considering cutting output due to high feedstock costs

At the start of June propylene prices have weakened ending the strong general uptrend since end-March amid weakness in Chinarsquos domestic market as demand softened due to turnarounds at downstream polypropylene (PP) plants

However the downward pressure on regional prices may be temporary as overall supply in Asia is expected to be tight

In early June spot propylene prices in northeast Asia were about 9 higher from the start of 2018 according to ICIS data

The year started on a bullish note fuelled by a heavier cracker turnaround schedule compared with 2017 and higher premium levels concluded for contract cargoes

The uptrend was sustained into February due to restocking activities in various import markets in northeast Asia before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February

Before the holidays some South Korean producers were convinced the market will experience supply shortage as both GS Caltexrsquos fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity and Yeochun NCCrsquos (YNCC) cracker ndash which can produce 280000 tonnesyear of propylene ndash were due for maintenance in February through to April

But propylene prices surprisingly weakened from 9 February to end-March without demand support from Chinarsquos weak PP market which struggled through sluggish sales and high inventory after the countryrsquos week-long Lunar New Year holiday

A renewed wave of scheduled turnarounds at regional plants tightened supply and drove up propylene prices in April and May

In Taiwan Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) took its residue fluid catalytic

Back to Quick Navigation | 31Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

cracking (RFCC) unit with a 350000 tonneyear propylene capacity off stream from 1 March to mid-April while CPC Corp shut its 100000 tonneyear FCC unit on 10 April and restarted in early June

In South Korea GS Caltex also had a turnaround at its FCC unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity from 19 February to 5 April

SK Advanced shut its propane dehydrogenated (PDH) unit with 600000 tonneyear propylene capacity on 21 April to early May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian propylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 32Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

To talk to someone about price forecast reports call the numbers below or email us at salesukiciscomAsia-Pacific Europe Africa and Middle East The AmericasTel +65 6789 8828 Tel +44 20 8652 3335 Tel +1 713 525 2600 or Toll free +1 888 525 3255 (US and Canada only)

ICIS price forecast reportsSupply demand and price trends at a glance

ICIS price forecast reports provide a clear view of prices and supply and demand trends for the next 12 months Packed with vital information the report includes everything you need to assess where the market is heading and the impact or opportunity that presents for your business

To find out more or take a trial visit wwwiciscompriceforecast

Price Forecast Window

ICIS price forecasts are now available on the Dashboard channel using the Price Forecast Window which will enable users to

n Chart the price forecast against the last (rolling) twelve months of related price history

n Plot the last 12 months to view forecast progression and ICIS forecast accuracy

n Convert data into different currencies and units and download this data into Excel in order to easily enter into your own calculations

How price forecast reports can help youn Understand the marketUse ICIS price forecast reports to understand where the market is heading and identify the risks and the opportunities for your business What are the major demand developments for your product n Safeguard commercial decisionsUse market information to make better-informed business decisions relating to supply and demand Learn about changes in market capacities What factors will affect supply for you n Budgeting and planningWhether you are planning how much you will be spending in the short-to medium or even long term use the price forecast reports to help assess future prices for your product What will the price of your product be in six monthsrsquo time

Price forecast reports currently

available

Available as price forecast windows only

Polypropylene

Polyethylene

Benzene

StyrenePolystyrene

Methanol

Ethylene

Propylene

Styrene

Asia Europe US Global

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

OLEFINSBUTADIENE

ASIA BD TO FLUCTUATE IN H2 AS SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE SHIFTSBy Helen Yan

Asiarsquos butadiene (BD) spot prices for July shipments are likely to face downward pressure but any price downtrend is likely to reverse when cracker turnarounds start to kick in from September onwards

BD prices are expected to be weighed down before seeing support again in the third quarter as the supply and demand balance shifts during this period

The fourth quarter will likely see support for BD prices although the increases may be tempered by resistance from the downstream synthetic rubber (SR) makers to any significant price hikes

The busy cracker turnaround season in September-November will likely see supply tightening at the same time that demand is expected to pick up during this period

Several crackers and BD units including South Korearsquos Lotte Chemical LG Chem and Chinarsquos Shanghai Secco and Maoming Petrochemical are scheduled to shut during

the September to November time frame

In the near term BD spot prices are likely to continue to trend lower as demand wanes while supply at the same time is expected to lengthen due to an influx of deep-sea cargoes and regional cracker restarts

More than 15000 tonnes of deep-sea cargoes from EU are expected to arrive in Asia in June and July at the same time that crackers in Asia including Indiarsquos Haldia Petrochemical and Indonesiarsquos Chandra Asri resume their production following their maintenance shutdowns

On 8 June spot prices fell to $1725tonne CFR (cost amp freight) northeast (NE) Asia the second consecutive week of decline after spiralling upwards in the two months since early April

BD spot prices had increased by more than 40 since early April peaking at $1800tonne CFR NE Asia on 25 May

Strong demand from derivative acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) makers which were running their plants at optimal rates had bolstered the BD price upsurge during this period

However derivative styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) and polybutadiene rubber (PBR) producers the key consumers of BD cut their production output given the continued erosion in margins

Several major SBR and PBR producers said their margins had fallen into negative territory and retreated from the BD spot market in June

Chinese spot appetite in particular tapered off as domestic BD prices were lower compared with the US dollar-denominated import prices

In China Hangzhou Zhechen Jilin Petrochemical Zhejiang Transfar and Shen Hua Chemical were some of the SBR and PBR plants that are shut for maintenance in June and July

Several SBR and PBR plants in Taiwan and South Korea were also running at lower rates following the 40 BD price spike in the two months from early April to end-May

In South Korea major SR producer Korea Kumho Petrochemical PC was running its SBR and PBR plants at reduced rates

Back to Quick Navigation | 33Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian butadiene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 34Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Similarly Taiwanrsquos TSRC also cut the production output of its SBR and PBR plants

The outlook for the fourth quarter is expected to see a different turn of events with SBR and PBR plants resuming their production and ramping up their operating rates while supply during the last quarter is expected to tighten from the heavy cracker turnaround season

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYETHYLENE (PE)

SOUTHEAST ASIA PE MARKET FACES LONGER H2 SUPPLY WEAK DEMANDBy Felita Widjaja

Southeast Asiarsquos polyethylene (PE) market may be facing longer supply in the second half hinging on how the US-China trade spat plays out amid the regionrsquos weakening demand for imports

Global PE trade flows will be affected should China the biggest importer of spot PE cargoes in the world decide to impose retaliatory 25 tariff on US cargoes

Southeast Asia as an alternative buying region might be hard pressed to absorb additional supply from the US where massive PE capacities recently started up which were meant to cater to huge Chinese demand

Around 5m tonnes of additional US PE capacities are expected from several major projects including those in the pipeline to start up within the second half of 2018

China primarily imports PE cargoes from Asia and the Middle East while the US is its sixth leading PE supplier in 2017

ldquoEventually more substantial and regular volume of US [PE] cargoes are expected to be traded in Asia in the second half of the year as we have yet to see them in the first half of this yearrdquo said a regional trader

Any changes in trade flows would pose challenges to US suppliers in the short term as they would need to revamp their logistics and distribution channels to redirect cargoes to other markets

Suppliers from the Middle East meanwhile might take the opportunity to supply more cargoes to China and would mean fewer volumes available to the southeast Asian market

The Middle East is southeast Asiarsquos major PE supplier

Demand for PE imports in southeast Asia has been weak amid lower prices in

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the domestic markets as in the case of Thailand

ldquoThai traders are not keen to import as local prices are more competitive so they do not have the margin to sell the imported cargoes in local market Only some converters who need specific cargoes continue to importrdquo said a local Thai trader

Malaysia and Indonesia with predominantly Muslim populations have seen market activity slow down since mid-May when the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan started Ramadan ends with the Eid ul-Fitr holiday on 15 June

The Indonesian government has declared a longer Eid-ul Fitr holiday this year from 11-20 June

Markets in Singapore and the Philippines will be closed for the mid-June holiday as well

With supply expected to become long some market players expect regional PE prices in July and August to ease from

June with restocking activities expected to kick in towards the end of the third quarter

In the first half of 2018 southeast Asiarsquos average prices for commodity PE were largely stable to firm owing to suppliersrsquo relatively comfortable-to-tight supply for most of the period

At the start of June high density polyethylene (HDPE) film grade prices averaged $1395tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia while linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) film were at $1210tonne CFR SE Asia and $1265tonne CFR SE Asia respectively according to ICIS data

Prices had spiked in the first quarter as suppliers were holding comfortable-to-tight inventory as several regional producers have scheduled turnarounds at their plants in March Production issues and shutdowns in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia also limited availability of imports to southeast Asia during this period

Supply for HDPE film was particularly tight as some producers from the Middle East as well as Asia switched their focus into making HDPE pipe grade amid robust demand and better netbacks

The price uptrend across most PE grades could not be sustained in the second quarter although prices remained relatively stable-to-firm

The depreciation of local currencies in southeast Asia against the US dollar in most of the second quarter was also curbing overall demand for imports A weaker currency makes US dollar-denominated imports expensive

ldquoIndonesian buyers have not been buying much cargoes as the market slowed down during Ramadan and also because of weak rupiah which led the central bank to increase interest rate to limit the depreciationrdquo said a regional producer

CHINA PE IMPORTS TO STAY STRONG AMID DOMESTIC PLANT TURNAROUNDS By Angie Li

Chinarsquos polyethylene (PE) imports are expected to remain strong for the rest of the year after posting record volumes in January to April 2018 amid scheduled turnarounds at domestic facilities

Buyers in China have been accumulating imported PE cargoes as these were priced lower compared futures prices since the start of the year

More cargoes will be available to China as new capacities in the US are expected to boost production

For the month of May the countryrsquos PE imports are projected to reach 12m tonnes higher than the monthly average in the first four months of 2018

In January to April 2018 its PE imports volumes totaled 447m tonnes up by 12 from the previous corresponding period according to industry sources

The import volumes were making up for the production losses in the domestic market due to scheduled turnarounds

On 1 June low density PE (LDPE) imports were assessed at $1155-1180tonne linear low density PE (LLDPE) stood at $1150-1170tonne while high density PE (HDPE) film products were at $1340-1400tonne according to ICIS data

The prices have increased 15-62 from end-March but the gains came in lower than market playersrsquo expectations considering the heavy production loss due to turnarounds from April

Back to Quick Navigation | 36Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

An estimated 500000 tonnes are expected to be shaved in the second quarter due to scheduled maintenance at domestic facilities according ICIS data

ldquoWe thought the hefty plant turnarounds in the second quarter should lead to a surge in PE prices but the LDPE and LLDPE prices were less than satisfactory although HDPE prices [were] highrdquo said an east China-based trader referring to both the import and domestic PE prices

Strong imports amid hedging activities bloated the total supply in China in January to April to 998m tonnes up by 8 from the previous corresponding period with supply of LDPE and LLDPE up by 14 and 8 respectively market sources said

Imports of HDPE inched up by 2 over the same period given the gradersquos comparatively higher prices compared with LLDPE and LDPE

Increased availability due to recent capacity expansions and start-ups in Asia the Middle East also fuels Chinarsquos appetite for import cargoes

In the first quarter of 2018 additional cargoes from Saudi Arabia were mostly from Sadara Chemical which started up its 750000 tonneyear swing plant and 350000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Al Jubail during late 2016 and early 2017 respectively

Cargoes of Iran origin augmented the total volume from the UAE as market players try to go around the financial sanctions on Tehran Kordestan Petrochemicalrsquos 300000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Iran came on stream in March 2017

UAErsquos Borouge has also ramped up pipe and HDPE film exports to China during the period according to a supplier in the Middle East

Meanwhile PE imports from Singapore surged 38 year on year while those from India more than doubled to 127000 tonnes according to China Customs data

The ban on waste plastics implemented in China in the year also bolstered imports of virgin PE Some waste plastics processed overseas and then re-entered the market as virgin products but these volumes were limited

Last year China has imported 194m tonnes of PE waste plastics while

volumes in 2018 will be negligible with the implemention of the ban

Chinarsquos PE production this year is expected to increase by around 7 to about 17m tonnes in 2018 with imports projected to grow by 102 to around 13m tonnes according to a source from state-owned petrochemical giant PetroChina

Domestic demand for PE on the other hand is forecast to grow by 8 this year mainly from the packaging and pipe markets

Chinarsquos ongoing campaign to switch to using gas for power generation instead of coal is expected to continue boosting demand for PE gas pipes this year

The packaging industry will also drive up PE consumption underpinned by growth in electronic commerce Chinarsquos express delivery volumes reached 137bn packages during January-April 2018 based on data from the recent China Express Industry Development Conference in May

Back to Quick Navigation | 37Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 38Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

By Jonathan Lopez

ICIS NewsThe leading news service for real-time ground breaking news and analysis on the global petrochemicals markets

The ICIS News services give you unrivalled access to the most in-depth stories impacting the petrochemicals markets influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions

Our team of global editors are reporting around the clock to bring you the latest news and analysis so that you get the full picture of market and pricing developments first providing you with invaluable foresight to take advantage of every opportunity and to stay ahead of your competitors

With ICIS News you will be the first to read

Breaking news on the chemical markets that will impact your business

News on market moves deals and announcements that will affect your organisation

Force majeures closures and developments that influence your commodity prices

Expert analysis on industry trends and hot topics ndash know whatrsquos happening and why

Searchable archive with over 14 million articles from the past 10 years

Chemical Business News Base (CBNB) is a premium resource available on ICIS News It provides you with an extensive external source of upstream and downstream petrochemical news in summarised snapshots so you can quickly and easily get the latest updates on whatrsquos important to you

CBNB offers readers

Fast and consistent coverage on news facts figures from the upstream and downstream petrochemicals industry

Access to over 700 news sources including technical and trade journals company literature market research reports stockbroker reports books and directories

User-friendly search functionality to find articles most relevant to you from around the globe

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ICB features include

In-depth insight into chemical price changes and their impact on the markets

Understand the detail behind the headline news stories

Find out about supply amp demand trends and the factors impacting them

Get the complete picture of the chemical markets ndash all in one e-magazine

Easy access via e-magazine and premium magazine website

Find out more wwwiciscomnews

ICIS News offers access to additional sources including the ICIS Chemical Business Magazine and Chemical Business News Base (CBNB)

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYPROPYLENE (PP)

SE ASIA PP PRICES MAY COME UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 AS SUPPLY LENGTHENSBy Leanne Tan

Southeast Asiarsquos polypropylene (PP) market may come under pressure in the second half of the year on account of lengthening regional supply and weak downstream demand

Spot prices have been on the rise for most of May buoyed by bullish sentiment in the Chinese market and firm upstream feedstock costs

Margins for PP makers have been lower on average compared with levels in the previous year

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refinery amp Petrochemicals is scheduled to start up its 400000 tonneyear PP production unit in the third quarter The project was initially scheduled to start up in the first quarter of 2018

While domestic demand will continue to outstrip local production the countryrsquos reliance on imports may be diminished when the new plant starts up

Converters in the country have been opting to keep inventories lean in the short term amid expectations that prices may eventually weaken when more domestic supply becomes available

ldquoBuyers donrsquot want to buy too much import cargoes now not just because prices are high but also because there will be more locally-produced materials very soonrdquo a Vietnamese trader said

In Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan is expected to start commercial production at its expanded PP facility in Pasir Gudang in June or July The plantrsquos capacity will be raised by 200000 tonnesyear from 400000 tonnesyear

Import availabilities from South Korea are expected to lengthen in the medium-to-long term with S-Oil expected to complete an olefin downstream complex (ODC) at its Onsan refinery in Ulsan which will include a

405000 tonneyear PP capacity

On the demand front weakness is likely to persist in the second half with converters and end-users likely to continue buying spot cargoes on a hand-to-mouth basis

Indonesiarsquos demand in particular has been below expectations since the start of 2018 and this is likely to continue in the second half of the year according to market players

Back to Quick Navigation | 39Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Some players said import demand for dutiable cargoes may increase in the second half of the year as this is typically when the government issues duty exemption facilities

The duty exemption facilities are issued on a yearly basis which enable converters to import some PP volumes without extra cost

In Malaysia the removal of the 6 goods and services tax (GST) so far has had no immediate impact on the PP market although there are some expectations the move could potentially boost demand in the consumer market further down the road

In Vietnam demand for PP flat yarn has entered a seasonal lull from May to early July and will not pick up until August when the summer harvest begins

PP is widely used in the manufacture of woven sacks (for rice sacks) flexible packaging carpets household appliances and automotive parts

Spot PP prices in southeast Asia have been an uptrend for most of the first half

The PP market begun the year on a bullish note with spot prices surging by almost 10 over the course of two months all-origins PP flat yarn prices peaked at $1295tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia on 2 March

Healthy demand in China helped to provide support to spot prices in southeast Asia in the first quarter with a tight global spot supply leading to further price escalations

Some suppliers pulled back from the southeast Asian spot market to capitalise on better netbacks in other countries including Japan and Pakistan leading to further curtailed spot availability in southeast Asia

The market rally started to lose steam in early March amid subdued demand and a build-up of domestic inventories in China after the Lunar New Year holidays

The bearish sentiment soon spilled over into southeast Asia with Chinese suppliers pushing some volumes into southeast Asia amid an open arbitrage window

Vietnam remains the market of choice for Chinese exporters and PP import prices in the country plummeted as the result of the lengthened spot availability

However the bearish run was short-lived and prices soon bottomed out in early April

Bullish momentum in the upstream crude and naphtha markets propelled spot prices of polymers higher

Despite lacklustre downstream demand price hikes in April and May were commonplace as producers sought higher asking prices in view of narrower margins

TIGHT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT CHINA PP MARKET DESPITE WEAK DEMANDBy Dora Xue

Tight supply would buoy up Chinarsquos polypropylene (PP) prices in the near term despite weak downstream demand

The market is expecting heavy production losses following recent unexpected outages at five domestic facilities from May and scheduled turnarounds at other plants

In the week ended on 1 June domestic prices for PP flat yarn in east China were assessed at Chinese yuan (CNY) 9075tonne after a steady increase from early April according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos import prices for the same material stood at $1245tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China largely tracking movement in the domestic market over the past two months according to ICIS data

The strong PP prices have also started to deter buyers from purchasing more spot cargoes

ldquoPP prices are too high We donrsquot want to store too much in our warehouserdquo a buyer said

Downstream demand typically goes on a lull in June and July but any downward pressure on prices will be negated by a further tightening of supply as major plants will be taken off line for maintenance

ldquoWhen the maintenance season finishes in late June [PP] prices may start to go downrdquo a trader said

Demand is considered weakest at Qingdao in the eastern Shandong province due to government-mandated production cuts and logistics restrictions ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (SCO Summit) on 9-10 June

As of 1 June the combined polyolefin inventories of Chinese petrochemical majors Sinopec and PetroChina have declined back to normal levels of 700000 tonnes from a high of 1m tonnes in early March market sources said

Import supply to China may not improve in the short term as suppliers still deem other

Back to Quick Navigation | 40Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

Back to Quick Navigation | 43Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 9: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

Pricing IntelligenceAccess independent price assessments that meet IOSCOrsquos PRA Principles and are widely trusted and used as benchmarks in the industry ICIS coverage is unrivalled with pricing data and information for over 180 commodities across all key regions Make fast and confident decisions and determine the best time to buy or sell with access to l Spot and contract price assessments including personalised alerts to notify you of changes l In-depth analysis and price history to help you track and understand price drivers and trends l Easy access to information with multiple delivery options

Analytics SolutionsICIS offers a unique combination of analytics tools designed to help you navigate and optimise opportunities in an ever-changing market making complex analytics simple for you Our solutions help you react quicker to market developments in a demand-led price-sensitive global marketplace enabling you to l Spot opportunities and minimise risk l Shape future strategy l Maintain a competitive advantage l Supplement your in-house analytics

Specialist ServicesThe global team of ICIS experts brings extensive knowledge of industry sectors through

Expand your knowledge to navigate complex markets more confidently

Get the latest insights into current issues and trends from a hand-picked selection of experts

Get tailored advice and guidance to address your companyrsquos key challenges

Industry NewsOur extensive global network of local experts report breaking news stories that impact chemical markets influence commodity prices and affect your daily business decisions Alerts and our one-stop platform keep you fully informed and support your planning with access to l Real-time news round-the-clock l Analysis and likely market impact l Production news and force majeures

Supply amp Demand DatabaseReceive an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical supply chain for over 100 petrochemical commodities Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacity production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040 ndash providing you with a long-term view of the rapidly changing petrochemical market The database enables you to l Determine the local or regional scenario in a global context to support your planning l Identify evaluate and optimise opportunities l Validate commercial and growth strategies l Identify and manage financial or investment risks

FIND OUT MORE

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Critical market data tools and expertise

SPECIALISED TRAINING INDUSTRY CONFERENCES BESPOKE CONSULTANCY

AROMATICSPARAXYLENE

ASIA PX FACES DOWNWARD PRESSURE AS SUPPLY LENGTHENS INTO H2By Samuel Wong

Asiarsquos paraxylene (PX) prices are likely to face downward pressure going into the second half of 2018 due to new capacities coming on stream with no additional downstream units to absorb the supply

A total of 205myear of new PX capacities will be added in the second half including PetroRabighrsquos 135m tonneyear unit in Saudi Arabia and Nghi Son Refinery and Petrochemicalrsquos 700000 tonneyear unit in Vietnam

Asiarsquos PX intermonth spread is currently at a backwardation of $3-4tonne down from $12-15tonne in the first quarter as market participants were gradually pricing in the additional supply PX supply

There are expectations that the market will flip into a contango once smooth operations are achieved at the new PX units

Among new PX capacities PetroRabighrsquos new PX unit is expected to achieve full operations from the third-quarter onward after suffering some technical hiccups in the second quarter

Nghi Son on the other hand is expected to start exporting cargoes from its new PX unit from the second-half of July according to market participants

Asia will be in oversupply of PX as the total capacity increase would require 31m tonnesyear of downstream purified terephthalic acid (PTA) capacities but no firm PTA start-ups are on tap in the next six months

Moreover Chinarsquos Fuhaichuang Petrochemical formerly Dragon Aromatics (Zhangzhou) is planning to resume operations at its idled complex in the third quarter this year after more than three years of shutdown

Its Zhangzhou complex consists of a 16m tonneyear PX plant and a 45m tonneyear downstream PTA plant which constitutes three 15m tonneyear lines two of which have resumed operations since late 2017

According to market participants the company is likely to restart the third PTA line once smooth operations at its PX unit is achieved

In India JBF Grouprsquos 125m tonneyear PTA unit is supposed to begin production in the third quarter of 2018 but the schedule is still fluid according to market players

The company has recently entered into a deal with existing investor KRR for the private equity firm to acquire a majority stake in certain company assets as the company enters into discussions to restructure its debt on 18 May

In Europe Indorama Ventures plans to start up an idled Portugal-based 700000 tonneyear PTA unit which it recently acquired in July The plant formerly known as Artlant PTA originally came on stream in 2012 but closed in 2014 for financial reasons and bar a brief period in operation was subsequently idled

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Thailandrsquos Indorama Ventures acquired Atlant PTA in the fourth quarter of 2017

Asian PX prices are currently above those of main feedstock naphtha by more than the breakeven level of $250tonne while PX production via feedstock isomer-xylene through the parex process and feedstock toluene through the toluene disproportionation (TDP) route have also remained economically viable

All these will mean that PX producers will maintain high operating rates at their existing plants

Spot sales have been increasing amid strong production across the region A southeast Asia-based producer is currently offering around 15000-20000 tonnesmonth of cargoes double to triple the monthly volumes it offered in the previous year

The price gap between PX and naphtha has narrowed to $315tonne in the second quarter falling from the peak of around $425tonne in end-February as the market started pricing in the expected increase in supply

In the first half of the year Asiarsquos PX production losses were estimated at 167m tonnes due to a heavy turnaround schedule

Negotiations for PX Asian Contract Price (ACP) failed for three consecutive months from April after successful monthly settlements in the first quarter ndash when producers and end-users were in agreement that supply was restricted by the turnarounds amid healthy demand in Asia

Back to Quick Navigation | 10Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian paraxylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 11Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Arbitrage economics for deep-sea materials into Asia has largely remained shut since the start of the year mainly due to a tightly supplied market in the US

However Asia does not need the supply from the US ndash which ships out 10000-15000 tonnes of supply to this region on a monthly basis ndash once the new PX units achieved smooth operations according to market participants

Toward the fourth quarter a tightening of supply may provide support to PX prices with several plants in the key China market due for turnaround

PX prices are also expected to track movement in the upstream crude and naphtha prices as well as downstream PTA futures values

AROMATICSSTYRENE MONOMER

ASIA SM UP ON LIMITED SUPPLY TIGHTNESS TO EASE IN H2By Deborah Lee

Asiarsquos styrene monomer (SM) market ndash supported in the first half of 2018 by tight supply ndash is expected to see more arbitrage cargoes from the US and Europe besides completion of turnarounds which may put pressure on prices for the rest of the year

Already April and May cargoes have been loaded from the US and have either found buyers or are likely to do so in South Korea

Furthermore Chinarsquos turnarounds will largely be over by end June with demand for imports expected to fall as domestic production returns to normal

A final anti-dumping duty (ADD) decision by China over SM imports from South Korea Taiwan and the US is also being closely watched by market participants

The China ministry of commerce is expected to announce its final results of its ADD probe in June

Prices are expected to come off in the second half of the year as a result of easing of supply and already there is a steep backwardation in the market with the JuneJuly spread at $65-85tonne

The CFR China marker started off at $1335tonne the start of the year and peaked at $156250tonne early June The SM assessment has since softened but remained above the $1400tonne level

They were largely supported in the first half because of limited arbitrage arrivals amid unplanned plant issues and scheduled turnarounds in Europe and the US while the CFR (cost amp freight) China market was hit by the ADD imposed on South Korean Taiwanese and US origin cargoes

Besides planned plant maintenance in the US and Europe unexpected issues at several plants disrupted production further

In France Totalrsquos 600000 tonneyear SM plant in Gonfreville was affected by an outage at the producerrsquos cracker in the same location early February

But the biggest impact was from CosMarrsquos unplanned shutdown caused by equipment failure due to the polymerization at its purification units

Production at its 118m tonneyear plant in Carville Louisiana resumed April 10 nearly three months after it was shut mid-January

The tight supply situation almost guaranteed that there would be no arbitrage cargoes from the US and Europe heading into Asia

Back to Quick Navigation | 12Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

But this was further secured by ADDs imposed on some of Chinarsquos key suppliers of SM as part of the Chinese authoritiesrsquo preliminary decision in February

This had greatly reduced options for the largest importer of SM cargoes in Asia

China which imported over 3m tonnes of SM in 2017 has had to turn to the Middle East southeast Asia and Japan to supplement cargoes it had received before from countries affected by ADD

Other macroeconomic factors boosted the CFR China assessment -- a stronger yuan rendered US dollar imports more competitive versus domestic cargoes for one

China also lowered VAT rates from 17 to 16 effective May 1 further bolstering interest in imported cargoes

Prices fell in end-February as some sellers offloaded cargoes due to an influx of arrivals

Concerns over end user demand emerged as the second quarter was expected to be a good demand season for SM and its derivatives but in reality buyers were slow to emerge deterred by high prices

In China in particular demand was slow to pick up after the Lunar New Year holiday because downstream producers were well stocked as operating rates were maintained during the typically low demand season in winter

This was in anticipation of rising SM prices due to the ADD probe

The additional spot cargoes in the market combined with lackluster demand pressured spot prices lower The CFR China assessment on 21 March fell to $1270tonne

As news of more turnarounds planned within China emerged domestic supply of SM was looking increasingly tight

With many plants due to be shut over April to June production was persistently lowered over the quarter and expectations of tight supply pushed the market higher again

Spot prices remained on an upswing as inventory levels slumped and prompt supply was limited

Stockpiles of SM in east China fell to a multi-year low as of 30 May at 37500 tonnes

Back to Quick Navigation | 13Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian styrene monomer (SM) markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 14Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Cargoes hitting Chinarsquos shores were not sufficient to meet the countryrsquos growing appetite for SM particularly as the Q3 manufacturing for exports season was fast approaching

Downstream producers however were struggling to pass on rising feedstock costs to their buyers

Thinning margins have led to some mulling lowering operating rates at its resin plants

Petrochemicals Analytics SolutionsOur new and enhanced petrochemical analytics and insight puts you in a stronger position so you can optimise your trades plans and strategies in order to secure a competitive advantage

ICIS is the only information provider to offer this unique combination of analytics tools as one subscription alongside pricing data and analysis

Live Supply Disruption TrackerPlant outages and maintenance for the next 12 months plus the impact of capacity changes

3 Pre-empt competition and capitalise on trades impacted by outages

3 Be aware of market shortages with a real-time view to manage risk and ensure security of stock

3 Negotiate better prices with other market players

Supply amp Demand OutlooksQuarterly global supply and demand review and outlook for key value chains and regions

3 Support your short-term strategy with upstream and downstream market sentiment and expectations for the current quarter at a regional level

3 Expand opportunities in international trade3 Understand at-a-glance the regional supply and

demand outlook across six key commodity chains

Price Drivers AnalyticsCross-commodity and cross-regional analysis of importexport parity substitution trends and feedstockdownstream spreads

3 Gain new context and negotiating tools in addition to ICIS price assessments

3 Pre-empt competition and spot opportunities with visual charts and impact commentaries

3 Reduce the time spent making manual calculations and spend more time on strategy and acting on market opportunities

4

360 view of the market l See the global market from

all anglesl Achieve better price

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Real-time information l Powered by 43000 plant

data in the ICIS Supply andDemand Database and 247global market coverage byICIS editors

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Complex analytics made simple l Real-time visualisation with

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AROMATICSTOLUENE

CHINA IMPORTS TO UNDERPIN ASIA TOLUENE MARKET IN H2 2018By Trixie Yap

Asiarsquos toluene market direction in the second half of this year will be determined by the buying activity from Chinese importers which has been the key factor influencing its prices so far in 2018

FOB (free on board) Korea prices which have been fluctuating in a wider-than-expected range for the past month closed at $760-785tonne in the week ended 1 June for June and July-loading parcels

The decreases at the close on 1 June marked the end of three weeksrsquo worth of stable-to-firm price trend

This followed weaker import demand from China for July which mainly stemmed from the ending of traders replenishing shore tank inventories at eastern ports such as Jiangsu

CFR (cost amp freight) China prices were in a sideways trend for most parts of early 2018 up to March at $690-765tonne

Prices only picked up after April and hit a peak of $835tonne CFR China after fluctuating in the $700-710tonne CFR China range for a few weeks

Unlike earlier expectations when market players were hoping for Chinese import demand to peak after the post early-March Lunar New Year period CFR China buying activity remained muted and only rose after May because of improved demand from the gasoline blenders

Blending demand received a boost because of lower gasoline production from state-owned refineries amid a spate of turnarounds in China ndash mainly in the eastern regions ndash starting end April to June

The better blending economics for toluene in early May particularly for the oil majors paved the way for demand as well

Back to Quick Navigation | 15Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Toluene-isomer xylenes spread on an ex-tank basis was wider with toluene being much more price friendly for gasoline production as compared to isomer xylene

With the 1 May implementation of a new online tax-filing system for oil and chemical products oil majors had no choice but to buy blend stocks themselves

Back to Quick Navigation | 16Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

instead of gasoline cargoes directly as the government was effectively making private gasoline blending activities unworkable as these blenders will not be able to potentially avoid tax payments via the paper filing system now

The presence of higher-than-expected inventories at east China main ports ndash stock levels hit a high of 76700 tonnes in early March ndash contributed further to the later timing of import demand Inventories only fell significantly after April (see chart above)

The only key issue hampering import demand from improving further was the

generally weak off taking activities from the downstream chemical sectors as isocynates benzoic acid benzyl chloride and other types of solvent products

The downstream demand was hampered because of low and unchanged operating rates because of stricter environmental regulations imposed by the government since second-half 2017

Looking ahead however the bleak demand situation for toluene from the chemical downstream sector could reverse soon starting August-September because of Wan Hua Chemicalrsquos new TDI plant start-up

The TDI plantsrsquo nameplate capacity is currently 300000 tonnesyear which could equate to around 160000 tonnesyear of toluene usage according to several market players

While this may not directly represent an increase in demand for CFR China import toluene cargoes it is likely to boost domestic toluene demand within north China particularly Shandong region and allow for potential arbitrage flows within the country

This in turn may support import parity of yuan-denominated ex-tank prices and allow for healthy distributor margins ndash if they consider to buy CFR China cargoes which is a key driver for majority of these import buyers

Market participants in China were quick to note also that supply increments ndash following at least three new plant start-ups this year ndash will outpace demand increments whichcould pose a problem in determining whichwill have a larger impact on import demandand prices

ldquoThe additional capacities may not be sold into the merchant market because there will still be captive usage since these producers are refineries with gasoline requirements and fulfilmentsrdquo one east China-based trader said

Ultimately it will be dependent on how the internal consumption for gasoline ndash of these new start-ups ndash will pan out leading up to the year-end

Changes in average operating rates of state-owned refineries due to turnarounds or outages will be another direction driver

Aside from China demand-supply fundamentals the other key price driver is the supply balance within Asia

Supply has been generally long between January and May owing to the stable operating plant rates and overall sufficient availability in southeast Asia a key net exporter within the region

Availability of northeast Asian cargoes was curtailed at some points in time ndash particularly in February and March ndashbecause of turnarounds

Back to Quick Navigation | 17Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 18Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

However supply has been steadily rising for cargoes loading in May and June ndash with the market seeing an additional of close to 30000 tonnes of product from South Korea alone ndash as some downstream plants had ongoing shutdown plans all the way till early July (see right)

All of these cargoes as expected are heading to China because of the opened arbitrage window for exports during the same time period

The increment in excess spot supply from South Korea ndash going forward ndash will be driven by downstream spreads for TDP operators since the benzene-toluene spreads have been narrowing consistently from March when the spreads hit a peak

The healthy spreads between toluene and xylenes (para and isomer) have been the only saving grace for the TDP market

ldquoBenzene demand-supply fundamentals are likely to continue remaining weak with increments in supply still expected from Middle East and Vietnam from June so that is going to still put pressure on TDP operators whether to run their unit with more toluene or less toluene [since they can adjust the amount of feedstock]rdquo one northeast Asian end-user said

ldquoBenzene demand-supply fundamentals are likely to continue remaining weak with increments in supply still expected from Middle East and Vietnam from June so that is going to still put pressure on TDP operators whether to run their unit with more toluene or less toluene [since they can adjust the amount of feedstock]rdquo one northeast Asian end-user said

There is also hope that supply will be curbed again in the autumn season ndash when several plants start their planned maintenances ndash to provide a temporary relief to the readily sufficient spot availability

Ultimately if Chinarsquos importing activity continues to be robust there will be no issues with them soaking up the excess supplies at any point of time

ldquoThe key issue is how much these buyers can procure and how long their buying activities can last but so far it has been very sporadic and capped to short time frames because of them being risk averserdquo one southeast Asian trader said

Back to Quick Navigation | 19Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian toluene markets

BASE OILSBASE OILS

ASIA MIDEAST BASE OILS FIRM IN H1 BUT SOME PULLBACK LIKELY IN H2By Jasmine Khoo amp Izham Ahmad

Asia base oils Group I SN150 and Group II 150N prices are expected to remain firm on persistently low supply whereas the heavy grades - Group I SN500 and Group II 500600N - could come under pressure on ample availability

Into the second half of the year base oils supply from Iran are expected to be stable with no known maintenance plans due over the following few months from June and that could add further pressure on prices amid the weak demand outlook

Only one Iranian refiner is due for a maintenance shutdown in the second half of the year possibly sometime in September according to market sources

In Group II like in Asia short supply of 150N and 500600N is expected to support prices in coming months but the Group II segment in the Middle East is a much smaller market for producers

Major Group II and III producers in Saudi Arabia Qatar Bahrain and UAE also continue to focus on their traditional markets outside of the Middle East due to stronger demand and higher margins

Brightstock remained largely stable for June in terms of pricing following deals done at parity with Mayrsquos levels but market players maintained a cautious stance towards brightstock pricing which would typically see downward pressure towards the end of the year

The winter season in parts of Asia would typically herald a period of slow cargo uptake for brightstock as transportation logistics get more challenging

As for Group III base oils northeast Asian-origin lots are expected to see support in spot prices from June as seen from healthy uptake among buyers amid short supply from regional suppliers

Similarly in the Middle East market Group I prices started the year on a firm note

Around mid-February SN500 prices traded up to $80750tonne FOB (free on board) Iran their highest levels since ICIS began tracking the data in November 2015

SN150 also traded their record highs about the same time hitting $72750tonne FOB Iran

These record highs were held until early May despite buyers at the time showing increasing resistance to the higher levels and the uncertainty that took hold of the market ahead of a deadline for the US to decide on whether it would remain in the Iran nuclear deal

On 8 May US president Donald Trump announced that the US will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal and re-impose sanctions on Tehran consequently driving up crude prices to new highs since late 2014

Iranrsquos base oils prices were largely stable in that week but market outlook has been clouded with uncertainties following the USrsquo decision to re-impose sanctions on the country

Group I SN500 prices were stable through the early half of May at $780-805tonne FOB Iran while Group I SN150 were holding at $710-745tonne FOB Iran since early-February according to ICIS data

Prices began to decline around mid-May when it became more apparent that the increased sanctions would cause at least some disruptions to business dealings with Iranian entities

Market players said they encountered difficulties in financial transactions with Iran and many financial institutions were reluctant to take on any dealings involving Iran-based businesses for fear of conflicting with the US sanctions

On the supply side market players in the UAE said there were sufficient cargoes built up over recent months and as such

there was less demand for further spot deals in Group I particularly with the threat of renewed sanctions

Mid-May also marked the start of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan which is a typically slow season for the Middle East

Certain manufacturing activities are reduced as factories observed shorter operating hours and as many workers took some vacation time as well

The Eid ul-Fitr long holidays followed the end of Ramadan in mid-June

Asiarsquos base oils market trends for certain widely-traded Group I grades snapped out of persistent uptrend in late April against a backdrop of increasingly squeezed buyersrsquo margins and waning demand

Steady gains in FOB Asia spot prices were recorded since September 2017 on the back of regional shortages as demand surpassed output

This was partly fuelled by natural disasters in the US when Hurricane Harvey disrupted between 20 and 25 of the countryrsquos refining capacity in August

The disruption to base oils production at some units led to increased appetite for deep-sea shipments from Asia to the US

In the current market SN500 prices registered the greatest drops among the ICIS assessed grades shedding slightly more than 12 of its spot pricing between 13 April and 25 May ICIS data showed

Market participants attributed the price dip to lackluster demand brought about by a supply overhang of domestically-produced SN400 in the local Chinese market

Competitive pricing of SN400 amid ample availability curtailed import appetite among China-based buyers for SN500 of Asian origin especially since some buyers were still holding on to sufficient stocks for the near term

Back to Quick Navigation | 20Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Brightstock prices also softened reflecting increasingly squeezed buyersrsquo margins following steep gains seen from 22 September 2017 to 23 March 2018 in FOB Asia export prices

Some buyers were also sitting on sufficient inventories from active procurement earlier in the year leading to waned demand

This led refiners and traders to cut offers to encourage cargo uptake for May shipment cargoes

Group II 150N and 500600N prices largely held up on the back of potential supply woes in the summer season amid scheduled shutdowns at major Asian refineries

Taiwanrsquos Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) is expected to conduct planned maintenance in July market sources said

This led market players to hold on to expectations of buoyed spot prices for Group II base oils in the near term though significant increase is not expected for certain grades such as 500600N amid ample spot availability in the region

Group III 4 and 6cst base oils largely continued their steady price uptrend reflecting short supply among key South Korean Group III suppliers

8cst base oils of northeast Asian origin amid comparatively greater availability than its lighter counterparts saw less gains in prices since the beginning of 2018

South Korean-origin Group III base oils prices were mostly buoyant despite an influx of Middle East-origin Group III base oils into the northeast Asian market since November 2017 as South Korean-origin Group III users adhered largely to using the same material due to formulation restrictions and related OEM approvals

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian base oils markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 21Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPURIFIED TEREPHTHALIC ACID (PTA)

ASIA PTA SUPPLY TO LENGTHEN IN H2 ON INDIA CHINA PLANT START-UPSBy Samuel Wong

Supply of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in Asia is expected to lengthen in the second half of 2018 as new capacities will start up in the major markets of India and China amid a slowdown in demand

Major plants would have resumed production after unplanned outages to ease the current global supply tightness that has been driving up Asian prices while demand typically weakens in the third quarter

Asian PTA prices may start to come under pressure as fresh supply will hit the markets when new major regional plants start production in the third quarter

ldquoMarket sentiment is currently pessimistic about the outlook however this can quickly change if we see a sudden uptick in downstream demandrdquo a China-based producer said

In India JBF Grouprsquos 125m tonneyear PTA unit in Mangalore is expected to start up in the third quarter although the schedule is still fluid according to several market participants

In China Fuhaichuang Petrochemical formerly known as Dragon Aromatics (Zhangzhou) is planning to resume operations at its complex in the third quarter of 2018 after a prolonged shutdown

Its petrochemical complex in Zhangzhou has a 45m tonneyear PTA plant comprisings three 15m tonneyear lines two of which have been in operation since end-2017 The company is likely to restart the third line once smooth operations at its upstream paraxylene (PX) unit at the site is achieved market players said

In Europe Indorama Ventures Portugal plans to start up in July an idled 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Sines Thailand-based Indorama Ventures Ltd acquired the

plant from Portuguese Artlant PTA in late 2017

All these factors should see the narrowing of the price gap between Chinarsquos import and domestic markets as early as July after widening steadily from March to May

As of 12 June the gap stood at $96tonne down from the peak of about $111tonne on 30 May

Asiarsquos PTA prices are currently steady at firm levels Regional end-users preferred to procure cargoes on a need-to basis and were not keen on building inventories

Future movement will depend on market conditions in the downstream polyester industry

The wide price gap in Chinarsquos import and domestic markets has been deterring Chinese buyers from tapping the international spot market for supplies since March while demand was healthy especially in the downstream polyethylene terephthalate (PET) markets

Tight global supply in the first half saw Asian producers shipping out cargoes to the Middle East as well as Europe which was hit by unplanned outages in Belgium and Poland in April

Back to Quick Navigation | 22Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

In Europe BP Chemical on 15 April declared a force majeure at its Belgium PTA unit and a second force majeure on 17 May PKN Orlen on 23 April declared a force majeure at its Wloclawek PTA unit in Poland which was subsequently lifted on 2 May with spot cargoes from the plant limited until after a planned maintenance in SeptemberOctober 2018

Within Asia the southeastern region has had PTA plant outages and had to procure cargoes from the northeast in the preceding two months

Regional supply tightened further with the unexpected shutdown of Hanwha General Chemicalrsquos 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Daesan prompting a force majeure declaration on 21 May

In the first half of 2018 strong growth in demand in the downstream polyester markets in Asia particularly China supported the rally in PTA prices amid tight supply

Downstream polyester markets were enjoying positive margins keeping demand for feedstock PTA healthy

In the key China market operating rates at polyester units were higher compared with the previous year

The countryrsquos PTA production losses in January-June 2018 on the other hand were estimated at around 134m tonnes due to planned and unplanned outages

Asiarsquos PTA producers were largely enjoying healthy margins on the back of steady demand growth in the downstream polyester markets Firmer upstream energy

and feedstock PX prices have also buoyed PTA prices

In January to May 2018 Brent crude traded at $6692-7616bbl up by about 25 year

on year while PX prices were at $938-994tonne representing a 15 increase over the same period

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian purified terephthalic acid (PTA)) markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 23Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPOLYETHYLENE TEREPHTHALATE (PET)

ASIA PET TO REMAIN FIRM IN Q3 AS TIGHT SUPPLY SUPPORT PRICESBy Hazel Goh

Asian polyethylene terephthalate (PET) market is likely to remain firm in the third quarter on the back of tight supply a trend that has supported prices so far in 2018

Recently PET tight supply is a result of production cuts in Asia and Europe that have not had a clear estimated date of resuming normal operations

China Resources Packaging had cut production at its PET lines in Changzhou by 50 following notice from the government to reduce pollution in end-May It is not known for how long the production cuts will remain in place

In Europe there had been feedstock purified terephthalic acid (PTA) supply tightness leading to recent PET production cuts and force majeure by Novapet and JBF respectively

Many buyers had been purchasing on a need-to basis expecting that firm prices are unsustainable and will come down Subsequently they did not stock up cargoes ahead of the peak summer demand season for countries in the northern hemisphere

The reality turned out different and they had to accept higher prices as production cuts kept the supply tight

PET used to track feedstock price movements closely as it had been an oversupplied market and producers typically operate on thin margins

The oversupply situation changed and tightness was first felt in the third quarter of 2017 when plant closures by JBF RAK in the UAE and Belgium and by Mossi amp Ghisolfi (MampG) in the US Mexico and Brazil following financial tightness in the two PET-producing companies

Hurricane Harvey that hit the US in the third quarter led to further production cuts in the US

Back to Quick Navigation | 24Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 1

From then on supply remained tight as the plant under JBF RAK in the UAE and the former MampG plant in the US that had been acquired by Far Eastern remained shut for extended period of time even into 2018

Market players previously had concerns about where China will export its material when final anti-dumping duties (ADD) - heard to be at the same level as thepreliminary duties of 398-530 - wereimposed on its cargoes into Japan inJanuary

Japan was the top exporting destination for Chinese cargoes before the ADD following which the exports dropped drastically

While other producers such as Taiwanese southeast Asian Indian and South Korean producers sold more volumes into Japan Chinese makers sold to other markets that were relinquished by the other producers

Table 1 shows a significant difference between 2016 and 2017 in Chinarsquos export volumes to key destinations from the January-to-March period

Ranked by volume starting with largestvolume as 1

There is an ongoing anti-dumping duty (ADD) investigation by the US on PET cargoes from Brazil Pakistan Indonesia Taiwan and South Korea

The Commerce Department issued the preliminary dumping rates for Indonesia at 1316 South Korea at 881-10141 and Taiwan at 902-1189 in May Final determinations will be issued by 8 November

Even so some producers from the countries under investigation continued to receive buying enquiries from the US amid the current tight supply situation

There will be some upcoming new capacities expected in Q3 as shown in table 2 that may bring about a more balanced supply to meet the demand

The US plant acquired by Far Eastern is estimated to restart in June-July which should also ease the supply tightness

Even with the new capacities and plant restarts market participants think it is unlikely that PET market will return to the oversupply situation seen in the previous years

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian PET markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 25Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 2

Our English-language report coverage includes

Styrene MEG Propylene

BTX Methanol Base Oil

BPA PE MTBE

Phenol PP Mixed AromaticsAcetone Oxo-Alcohol

Trusted industryintelligence for Chinarsquoscommodity marketsDevelopments in Chinarsquos petrochemicals industrycontinue to affect the global marketplace It istherefore vital for domestic and internationalmarket players to keep track of changes withinthe country to know where opportunities lie

ICIS has long been recognised as a reliablesource of information our locally-based expertscompile reports and analyses in English tosupport industry participants dealing with Chinamarkets or seeking to trade or invest

Pricing informationOur pricing data provide key insights into pricetrends in China to support your short-termdecision-making negotiations and analyses

bull Import and export spot and contract pricesbull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity

and upstreamdownstream marketsbull Data on inventory levels and price marginsbull Plant and production news

Petrochemicals Analytics SolutionsProviding our customers with a 360-degree view of the Chinese market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker - real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for thenext 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics - key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock anddo wnstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlooks

Available for key chemical commodities

wwwiciscomchina

Discover how we can meet your market information needs

enquiryiciscom

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESMONOETHYLENE GLYCOL (MEG)

ASIA MEG TO SEE DEMAND TAPERING LOWER SUPPLY IN EARLY H2By Eric Su

The Asian monoethylene glycol (MEG) market could see demand slowing down from the end of June while supply will be reduced from a number of plant turnarounds

Inventories are expected to decline in June after offtake rates at Chinese main ports rose sharply in the last two weeks of May because of an uptick in demand from downstream polyester buyers

Demand for MEG is also expected to remain strong in the first half of June boosted by high polyester production rates of above 85 and modestly low inventory levels

A slowdown in demand may take place in the second half of June as the traditional manufacturing peak period nears its end in July

Meanwhile supply conditions could tighten because of the plant turnarounds in northeast Asia

However supply from the Middle East will likely resume to normal levels given that there were no further delay in shipments in May

MEG prices in Asia have registered year-on-year growth rates in the months to June this year

MEG prices have mostly hovered above $900tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China Main Port (CMP) while prices were mostly below $900tonne CFR CMP in 2017

Prices have been volatile in 2018 with major price swings seen on a near monthly basis since February

MEG prices in first quarter of 2018 continued the uptrend seen in the fourth quarter of 2017 rising to $1030tonne CFR CMP in early March from $922tonne CFR

CMP in late December as the higher-than-expected growth in downstream polyester fuelled bullish market sentiment

Polyester growth in 2017 was estimated at above 10 beating an originally bearish expectation of 2-3

A price downtrend was observed in March with the MEG weekly average price losing nearly 10 of its value to $929tonne CFR CMP by end-March

The price decline coincided with a sharp influx of imported cargoes which was likely a result of over-procurement in January

Back to Quick Navigation | 26Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

and February when prices were trending upwards

March 2018 import volumes rose to nearly 1m tonnes a record three-year high according to official China customs data

MEG prices rebounded in April rising by around 9 from end-March to $1014tonne CFR CMP by end-April ahead of the traditional peak period for the downstream polyester sector The average polyester production rate rose to above 85 during the period

MEG also achieved its to-date weekly peak of $1042tonne CFR CMP in the week ending 20 April

Supply tightness was also observed in the Chinese domestic market because of shipment delays from the Middle East and logistical issues at China main ports over the same period

The lack of availability of prompt cargoes also led to an atypical price spread between April and May delivery parcels

Normally the spread between arrived-at-port and far-term arrival cargoes is at $0-10tonne CFR CMP but this widened to $20-30tonne CFR CMP This drove concerns of sharp price adjustments in May once April deliveries were fulfilled

These concerns came true as MEG prices

began to slide in May MEG weekly prices stood at $928tonne CFR CMP in the last week of May falling from $1003tonne CFR CMP in early May

High inventory levels have also weighed on MEG prices Inventory levels were above 900000 tonnes from early May onward rising to 938000 tonnes by in late March Most market participants deemed inventory levels above 900000 tonnes to be high

The increase in inventory levels in May were largely attributed to the arrival of Middle East shipments which were previously due for arrival in April

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian MEG markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 27Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSETHYLENE

NE ASIA ETHYLENE H2 OUTLOOK HINGES ON NEW SUPPLY SM PLANTBy Yeow Pei Lin

Northeast (NE) Asiarsquos ethylene (C2) second-half 2018 outlook is uncertain as several crackers are scheduled for maintenance but such production losses could be offset by the start up of a new plant and cargoes from outside the region

More than 20 crackers in Asia are slated to undergo maintenance in 2018 with the estimated capacity losses totalling more than 185m tonnes Most of the turnarounds in the first half of the year were concentrated in Japan ndash a key exporter to China

However several more companies are to carry out turnarounds in June and the rest of the year

The impact on the regional balance will depend on the start-up progress of a new facility in South Korea and on whether the strong exports from southeast Asia and Europe in the first half of 2018 will continue

Shipments from Yeosu South Korea will start to slow down in August ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at complexes in that region

Exports will recover by December when Lotte Chemical brings on-stream an added capacity of 200000 tonnesyear at its Yeosu cracker

The facility will undergo an expansion during a turnaround from late September to October

Shipments from Ulsan another petrochemical cluster in South Korea will grow in the second half of 2018

Newcomer S-Oil is expected to begin commercial operations at its residue upgrading complex (RUC) in Onsan in the second half of June

The companyrsquos entire ethylene output of up

to around 200000 tonnesyear is intended for the merchant market as it does not have any downstream plants

Exports from southeast Asian producers will continue to be driven by the higher value from ethylene sales in the ethylene versus polyethylene (PE) trade-off

There will however be supply constraints

Four crackers in the region will undergo

maintenance and the affected producers include ExxonMobil and PTT Global Chemicals (PTTGC) that were regular exporters in the first half of 2018

Exports from Europe will likely be influenced by the performance of the PE sector

The outlook for the PE market in Europe is uncertain given the growing prospect of competitively-priced exports from the new US plants

Back to Quick Navigation | 28Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Ethylene costs in the US have been at low levels since early 2018 as production growth outpaces that for consumption

Since late 2017 about 3m tonnesyear of new ethylene capacity and about 35m tonnesyear of new PE capacity have started up in the US

The new crackers have been running well but several of the new PE plants struggled to reach full operating rates

Exports from Saudi Arabia are expected to be constrained by increased domestic consumption

Petro Rabigh announced in April that the last few plants in its Phase 2 project including a 75000 tonneyear ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) unit have started up

The companyrsquos ethylene exports could fall further in the second half of 2018 following the completion of its PE plant maintenance shutdowns earlier in the year

Chinarsquos import demand is poised for further growth when a new 260000 tonneyear styrene monomer (SM) plant starts up in the third quarter as planned

Anhui Haoyuan Chemical will be operating the unit in Fuyang Anhui on a standalone basis as its plans to build a methanol-to-olefin (MTO) plant have been put on hold amid high methanol prices

The plant will require around 78000 tonnes of ethylene annually to operate at maximum capacity

Based on the above factors it was not immediately clear if the ethylene prices in the second half will follow the volatile trend they displayed in the first five months of 2018

NE Asia spot ethylene prices were volatile from January to May as the impact of a heavy regional cracker turnaround schedule and strong Chinese demand was at times outweighed by strong exports from southeast Asia the Middle East and Europe

The market started the year at above a two and a half year high of $1415tonne CFR (cost amp freight) NE Asia in early January

Subsequent transacted prices fluctuated within a low $1200stonne to mid $1300stonne CFR NE Asia band in the five months ended 31 May

Prices in the first quarter were initially weighed down by ample supply from producers in the Middle East and Asia due to a series of PE plant shutdowns - both planned and unplanned

That was despite strong pre-Lunar New Year holiday restocking activities in China

Demand was bolstered by the start up of a 500000 tonneyear non-integrated SM plant and generally healthy downstream margins for producers outside the PE sector

End-users were also keen to build up their inventories because of the slow progress in their 2018 term contract discussions ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at facilities of key exporters in the region

In addition a major ethylene oxide (EO) maker was seeking more import cargoes following a disruption in supply from its upstream MTO unit The plant was shut twice between late November and the first half of February because of high feedstock methanol costs

The market recovered in early March in line with the start of the annual cracker turnaround season in northeast Asia where

scheduled capacity losses in 2018 will be overall higher than the previous year

That explained why the countryrsquos exports from January to April slumped by 14 year-on-year to 201274 tonnes

In late April northeast Asiarsquos spot prices fell again after a surprisingly large quantity of deep-sea spot cargoes were sold into Asia for delivery between the middle of May and the first half of June

There were at least 55000-60000 tonnes of cargoes from Europe in addition to 11000 tonnes of US supply for that delivery period Europe was in a long position because of derivative maintenance shutdowns and production problems

Continued strong exports from southeast Asia owing to downstream production issues and the weak performance of the linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) market contributed to the downbeat sentiment

The ample supply outweighed Chinarsquos robust import demand

Buying interest in China was strong for April and May arrival cargoes on the back

Back to Quick Navigation | 29Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

of healthy downstream margins for certain downstream markets such as SM EO and monoethylene glycol (MEG)

Ethylene buyers in China were also keen to book deep-sea cargoes to offset the expected regional production losses from cracker turnarounds

Prices rebounded quickly in mid-May

aided by a bullish SM market and reduced domestic supply

Some MTO operators lowered production in May as high feedstock methanol costs led to squeezed margins while a key producer in east China lowered its cracker run rates unexpectedly

Sharp increases in feedstock naphtha costs

which tracked gains on crude oil futures also helped set a floor to the earlier price declines

By early June spot ethylene prices had touched a 20-week high raising questions on whether the market will see similar price volatility in the second half of 2018

Producers will turn hawkish if the outlook for crude and naphtha markets remains upbeat

Back to Quick Navigation | 30Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSPROPYLENE

TIGHT NE ASIA PROPYLENE SUPPLY TO LIMIT H2 PRICE FLUCTUATIONSBy Joson Ng

Tight propylene (C3) supply in northeast Asia amid a heavy turnaround schedule in 2018 will continue supporting regional prices of the material into the second half

Sellers are likely to continue passing on firmer costs to buyers which are wary of October when heavy propylene production losses are expected

Buyersrsquo resistance in the key China market would keep any further increase in propylene prices in check with some downstream producers considering cutting output due to high feedstock costs

At the start of June propylene prices have weakened ending the strong general uptrend since end-March amid weakness in Chinarsquos domestic market as demand softened due to turnarounds at downstream polypropylene (PP) plants

However the downward pressure on regional prices may be temporary as overall supply in Asia is expected to be tight

In early June spot propylene prices in northeast Asia were about 9 higher from the start of 2018 according to ICIS data

The year started on a bullish note fuelled by a heavier cracker turnaround schedule compared with 2017 and higher premium levels concluded for contract cargoes

The uptrend was sustained into February due to restocking activities in various import markets in northeast Asia before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February

Before the holidays some South Korean producers were convinced the market will experience supply shortage as both GS Caltexrsquos fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity and Yeochun NCCrsquos (YNCC) cracker ndash which can produce 280000 tonnesyear of propylene ndash were due for maintenance in February through to April

But propylene prices surprisingly weakened from 9 February to end-March without demand support from Chinarsquos weak PP market which struggled through sluggish sales and high inventory after the countryrsquos week-long Lunar New Year holiday

A renewed wave of scheduled turnarounds at regional plants tightened supply and drove up propylene prices in April and May

In Taiwan Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) took its residue fluid catalytic

Back to Quick Navigation | 31Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

cracking (RFCC) unit with a 350000 tonneyear propylene capacity off stream from 1 March to mid-April while CPC Corp shut its 100000 tonneyear FCC unit on 10 April and restarted in early June

In South Korea GS Caltex also had a turnaround at its FCC unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity from 19 February to 5 April

SK Advanced shut its propane dehydrogenated (PDH) unit with 600000 tonneyear propylene capacity on 21 April to early May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian propylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 32Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

To talk to someone about price forecast reports call the numbers below or email us at salesukiciscomAsia-Pacific Europe Africa and Middle East The AmericasTel +65 6789 8828 Tel +44 20 8652 3335 Tel +1 713 525 2600 or Toll free +1 888 525 3255 (US and Canada only)

ICIS price forecast reportsSupply demand and price trends at a glance

ICIS price forecast reports provide a clear view of prices and supply and demand trends for the next 12 months Packed with vital information the report includes everything you need to assess where the market is heading and the impact or opportunity that presents for your business

To find out more or take a trial visit wwwiciscompriceforecast

Price Forecast Window

ICIS price forecasts are now available on the Dashboard channel using the Price Forecast Window which will enable users to

n Chart the price forecast against the last (rolling) twelve months of related price history

n Plot the last 12 months to view forecast progression and ICIS forecast accuracy

n Convert data into different currencies and units and download this data into Excel in order to easily enter into your own calculations

How price forecast reports can help youn Understand the marketUse ICIS price forecast reports to understand where the market is heading and identify the risks and the opportunities for your business What are the major demand developments for your product n Safeguard commercial decisionsUse market information to make better-informed business decisions relating to supply and demand Learn about changes in market capacities What factors will affect supply for you n Budgeting and planningWhether you are planning how much you will be spending in the short-to medium or even long term use the price forecast reports to help assess future prices for your product What will the price of your product be in six monthsrsquo time

Price forecast reports currently

available

Available as price forecast windows only

Polypropylene

Polyethylene

Benzene

StyrenePolystyrene

Methanol

Ethylene

Propylene

Styrene

Asia Europe US Global

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

OLEFINSBUTADIENE

ASIA BD TO FLUCTUATE IN H2 AS SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE SHIFTSBy Helen Yan

Asiarsquos butadiene (BD) spot prices for July shipments are likely to face downward pressure but any price downtrend is likely to reverse when cracker turnarounds start to kick in from September onwards

BD prices are expected to be weighed down before seeing support again in the third quarter as the supply and demand balance shifts during this period

The fourth quarter will likely see support for BD prices although the increases may be tempered by resistance from the downstream synthetic rubber (SR) makers to any significant price hikes

The busy cracker turnaround season in September-November will likely see supply tightening at the same time that demand is expected to pick up during this period

Several crackers and BD units including South Korearsquos Lotte Chemical LG Chem and Chinarsquos Shanghai Secco and Maoming Petrochemical are scheduled to shut during

the September to November time frame

In the near term BD spot prices are likely to continue to trend lower as demand wanes while supply at the same time is expected to lengthen due to an influx of deep-sea cargoes and regional cracker restarts

More than 15000 tonnes of deep-sea cargoes from EU are expected to arrive in Asia in June and July at the same time that crackers in Asia including Indiarsquos Haldia Petrochemical and Indonesiarsquos Chandra Asri resume their production following their maintenance shutdowns

On 8 June spot prices fell to $1725tonne CFR (cost amp freight) northeast (NE) Asia the second consecutive week of decline after spiralling upwards in the two months since early April

BD spot prices had increased by more than 40 since early April peaking at $1800tonne CFR NE Asia on 25 May

Strong demand from derivative acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) makers which were running their plants at optimal rates had bolstered the BD price upsurge during this period

However derivative styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) and polybutadiene rubber (PBR) producers the key consumers of BD cut their production output given the continued erosion in margins

Several major SBR and PBR producers said their margins had fallen into negative territory and retreated from the BD spot market in June

Chinese spot appetite in particular tapered off as domestic BD prices were lower compared with the US dollar-denominated import prices

In China Hangzhou Zhechen Jilin Petrochemical Zhejiang Transfar and Shen Hua Chemical were some of the SBR and PBR plants that are shut for maintenance in June and July

Several SBR and PBR plants in Taiwan and South Korea were also running at lower rates following the 40 BD price spike in the two months from early April to end-May

In South Korea major SR producer Korea Kumho Petrochemical PC was running its SBR and PBR plants at reduced rates

Back to Quick Navigation | 33Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian butadiene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 34Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Similarly Taiwanrsquos TSRC also cut the production output of its SBR and PBR plants

The outlook for the fourth quarter is expected to see a different turn of events with SBR and PBR plants resuming their production and ramping up their operating rates while supply during the last quarter is expected to tighten from the heavy cracker turnaround season

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYETHYLENE (PE)

SOUTHEAST ASIA PE MARKET FACES LONGER H2 SUPPLY WEAK DEMANDBy Felita Widjaja

Southeast Asiarsquos polyethylene (PE) market may be facing longer supply in the second half hinging on how the US-China trade spat plays out amid the regionrsquos weakening demand for imports

Global PE trade flows will be affected should China the biggest importer of spot PE cargoes in the world decide to impose retaliatory 25 tariff on US cargoes

Southeast Asia as an alternative buying region might be hard pressed to absorb additional supply from the US where massive PE capacities recently started up which were meant to cater to huge Chinese demand

Around 5m tonnes of additional US PE capacities are expected from several major projects including those in the pipeline to start up within the second half of 2018

China primarily imports PE cargoes from Asia and the Middle East while the US is its sixth leading PE supplier in 2017

ldquoEventually more substantial and regular volume of US [PE] cargoes are expected to be traded in Asia in the second half of the year as we have yet to see them in the first half of this yearrdquo said a regional trader

Any changes in trade flows would pose challenges to US suppliers in the short term as they would need to revamp their logistics and distribution channels to redirect cargoes to other markets

Suppliers from the Middle East meanwhile might take the opportunity to supply more cargoes to China and would mean fewer volumes available to the southeast Asian market

The Middle East is southeast Asiarsquos major PE supplier

Demand for PE imports in southeast Asia has been weak amid lower prices in

Back to Quick Navigation | 35Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

the domestic markets as in the case of Thailand

ldquoThai traders are not keen to import as local prices are more competitive so they do not have the margin to sell the imported cargoes in local market Only some converters who need specific cargoes continue to importrdquo said a local Thai trader

Malaysia and Indonesia with predominantly Muslim populations have seen market activity slow down since mid-May when the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan started Ramadan ends with the Eid ul-Fitr holiday on 15 June

The Indonesian government has declared a longer Eid-ul Fitr holiday this year from 11-20 June

Markets in Singapore and the Philippines will be closed for the mid-June holiday as well

With supply expected to become long some market players expect regional PE prices in July and August to ease from

June with restocking activities expected to kick in towards the end of the third quarter

In the first half of 2018 southeast Asiarsquos average prices for commodity PE were largely stable to firm owing to suppliersrsquo relatively comfortable-to-tight supply for most of the period

At the start of June high density polyethylene (HDPE) film grade prices averaged $1395tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia while linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) film were at $1210tonne CFR SE Asia and $1265tonne CFR SE Asia respectively according to ICIS data

Prices had spiked in the first quarter as suppliers were holding comfortable-to-tight inventory as several regional producers have scheduled turnarounds at their plants in March Production issues and shutdowns in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia also limited availability of imports to southeast Asia during this period

Supply for HDPE film was particularly tight as some producers from the Middle East as well as Asia switched their focus into making HDPE pipe grade amid robust demand and better netbacks

The price uptrend across most PE grades could not be sustained in the second quarter although prices remained relatively stable-to-firm

The depreciation of local currencies in southeast Asia against the US dollar in most of the second quarter was also curbing overall demand for imports A weaker currency makes US dollar-denominated imports expensive

ldquoIndonesian buyers have not been buying much cargoes as the market slowed down during Ramadan and also because of weak rupiah which led the central bank to increase interest rate to limit the depreciationrdquo said a regional producer

CHINA PE IMPORTS TO STAY STRONG AMID DOMESTIC PLANT TURNAROUNDS By Angie Li

Chinarsquos polyethylene (PE) imports are expected to remain strong for the rest of the year after posting record volumes in January to April 2018 amid scheduled turnarounds at domestic facilities

Buyers in China have been accumulating imported PE cargoes as these were priced lower compared futures prices since the start of the year

More cargoes will be available to China as new capacities in the US are expected to boost production

For the month of May the countryrsquos PE imports are projected to reach 12m tonnes higher than the monthly average in the first four months of 2018

In January to April 2018 its PE imports volumes totaled 447m tonnes up by 12 from the previous corresponding period according to industry sources

The import volumes were making up for the production losses in the domestic market due to scheduled turnarounds

On 1 June low density PE (LDPE) imports were assessed at $1155-1180tonne linear low density PE (LLDPE) stood at $1150-1170tonne while high density PE (HDPE) film products were at $1340-1400tonne according to ICIS data

The prices have increased 15-62 from end-March but the gains came in lower than market playersrsquo expectations considering the heavy production loss due to turnarounds from April

Back to Quick Navigation | 36Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

An estimated 500000 tonnes are expected to be shaved in the second quarter due to scheduled maintenance at domestic facilities according ICIS data

ldquoWe thought the hefty plant turnarounds in the second quarter should lead to a surge in PE prices but the LDPE and LLDPE prices were less than satisfactory although HDPE prices [were] highrdquo said an east China-based trader referring to both the import and domestic PE prices

Strong imports amid hedging activities bloated the total supply in China in January to April to 998m tonnes up by 8 from the previous corresponding period with supply of LDPE and LLDPE up by 14 and 8 respectively market sources said

Imports of HDPE inched up by 2 over the same period given the gradersquos comparatively higher prices compared with LLDPE and LDPE

Increased availability due to recent capacity expansions and start-ups in Asia the Middle East also fuels Chinarsquos appetite for import cargoes

In the first quarter of 2018 additional cargoes from Saudi Arabia were mostly from Sadara Chemical which started up its 750000 tonneyear swing plant and 350000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Al Jubail during late 2016 and early 2017 respectively

Cargoes of Iran origin augmented the total volume from the UAE as market players try to go around the financial sanctions on Tehran Kordestan Petrochemicalrsquos 300000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Iran came on stream in March 2017

UAErsquos Borouge has also ramped up pipe and HDPE film exports to China during the period according to a supplier in the Middle East

Meanwhile PE imports from Singapore surged 38 year on year while those from India more than doubled to 127000 tonnes according to China Customs data

The ban on waste plastics implemented in China in the year also bolstered imports of virgin PE Some waste plastics processed overseas and then re-entered the market as virgin products but these volumes were limited

Last year China has imported 194m tonnes of PE waste plastics while

volumes in 2018 will be negligible with the implemention of the ban

Chinarsquos PE production this year is expected to increase by around 7 to about 17m tonnes in 2018 with imports projected to grow by 102 to around 13m tonnes according to a source from state-owned petrochemical giant PetroChina

Domestic demand for PE on the other hand is forecast to grow by 8 this year mainly from the packaging and pipe markets

Chinarsquos ongoing campaign to switch to using gas for power generation instead of coal is expected to continue boosting demand for PE gas pipes this year

The packaging industry will also drive up PE consumption underpinned by growth in electronic commerce Chinarsquos express delivery volumes reached 137bn packages during January-April 2018 based on data from the recent China Express Industry Development Conference in May

Back to Quick Navigation | 37Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 38Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

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bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

By Jonathan Lopez

ICIS NewsThe leading news service for real-time ground breaking news and analysis on the global petrochemicals markets

The ICIS News services give you unrivalled access to the most in-depth stories impacting the petrochemicals markets influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions

Our team of global editors are reporting around the clock to bring you the latest news and analysis so that you get the full picture of market and pricing developments first providing you with invaluable foresight to take advantage of every opportunity and to stay ahead of your competitors

With ICIS News you will be the first to read

Breaking news on the chemical markets that will impact your business

News on market moves deals and announcements that will affect your organisation

Force majeures closures and developments that influence your commodity prices

Expert analysis on industry trends and hot topics ndash know whatrsquos happening and why

Searchable archive with over 14 million articles from the past 10 years

Chemical Business News Base (CBNB) is a premium resource available on ICIS News It provides you with an extensive external source of upstream and downstream petrochemical news in summarised snapshots so you can quickly and easily get the latest updates on whatrsquos important to you

CBNB offers readers

Fast and consistent coverage on news facts figures from the upstream and downstream petrochemicals industry

Access to over 700 news sources including technical and trade journals company literature market research reports stockbroker reports books and directories

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ICB features include

In-depth insight into chemical price changes and their impact on the markets

Understand the detail behind the headline news stories

Find out about supply amp demand trends and the factors impacting them

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Easy access via e-magazine and premium magazine website

Find out more wwwiciscomnews

ICIS News offers access to additional sources including the ICIS Chemical Business Magazine and Chemical Business News Base (CBNB)

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYPROPYLENE (PP)

SE ASIA PP PRICES MAY COME UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 AS SUPPLY LENGTHENSBy Leanne Tan

Southeast Asiarsquos polypropylene (PP) market may come under pressure in the second half of the year on account of lengthening regional supply and weak downstream demand

Spot prices have been on the rise for most of May buoyed by bullish sentiment in the Chinese market and firm upstream feedstock costs

Margins for PP makers have been lower on average compared with levels in the previous year

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refinery amp Petrochemicals is scheduled to start up its 400000 tonneyear PP production unit in the third quarter The project was initially scheduled to start up in the first quarter of 2018

While domestic demand will continue to outstrip local production the countryrsquos reliance on imports may be diminished when the new plant starts up

Converters in the country have been opting to keep inventories lean in the short term amid expectations that prices may eventually weaken when more domestic supply becomes available

ldquoBuyers donrsquot want to buy too much import cargoes now not just because prices are high but also because there will be more locally-produced materials very soonrdquo a Vietnamese trader said

In Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan is expected to start commercial production at its expanded PP facility in Pasir Gudang in June or July The plantrsquos capacity will be raised by 200000 tonnesyear from 400000 tonnesyear

Import availabilities from South Korea are expected to lengthen in the medium-to-long term with S-Oil expected to complete an olefin downstream complex (ODC) at its Onsan refinery in Ulsan which will include a

405000 tonneyear PP capacity

On the demand front weakness is likely to persist in the second half with converters and end-users likely to continue buying spot cargoes on a hand-to-mouth basis

Indonesiarsquos demand in particular has been below expectations since the start of 2018 and this is likely to continue in the second half of the year according to market players

Back to Quick Navigation | 39Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Some players said import demand for dutiable cargoes may increase in the second half of the year as this is typically when the government issues duty exemption facilities

The duty exemption facilities are issued on a yearly basis which enable converters to import some PP volumes without extra cost

In Malaysia the removal of the 6 goods and services tax (GST) so far has had no immediate impact on the PP market although there are some expectations the move could potentially boost demand in the consumer market further down the road

In Vietnam demand for PP flat yarn has entered a seasonal lull from May to early July and will not pick up until August when the summer harvest begins

PP is widely used in the manufacture of woven sacks (for rice sacks) flexible packaging carpets household appliances and automotive parts

Spot PP prices in southeast Asia have been an uptrend for most of the first half

The PP market begun the year on a bullish note with spot prices surging by almost 10 over the course of two months all-origins PP flat yarn prices peaked at $1295tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia on 2 March

Healthy demand in China helped to provide support to spot prices in southeast Asia in the first quarter with a tight global spot supply leading to further price escalations

Some suppliers pulled back from the southeast Asian spot market to capitalise on better netbacks in other countries including Japan and Pakistan leading to further curtailed spot availability in southeast Asia

The market rally started to lose steam in early March amid subdued demand and a build-up of domestic inventories in China after the Lunar New Year holidays

The bearish sentiment soon spilled over into southeast Asia with Chinese suppliers pushing some volumes into southeast Asia amid an open arbitrage window

Vietnam remains the market of choice for Chinese exporters and PP import prices in the country plummeted as the result of the lengthened spot availability

However the bearish run was short-lived and prices soon bottomed out in early April

Bullish momentum in the upstream crude and naphtha markets propelled spot prices of polymers higher

Despite lacklustre downstream demand price hikes in April and May were commonplace as producers sought higher asking prices in view of narrower margins

TIGHT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT CHINA PP MARKET DESPITE WEAK DEMANDBy Dora Xue

Tight supply would buoy up Chinarsquos polypropylene (PP) prices in the near term despite weak downstream demand

The market is expecting heavy production losses following recent unexpected outages at five domestic facilities from May and scheduled turnarounds at other plants

In the week ended on 1 June domestic prices for PP flat yarn in east China were assessed at Chinese yuan (CNY) 9075tonne after a steady increase from early April according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos import prices for the same material stood at $1245tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China largely tracking movement in the domestic market over the past two months according to ICIS data

The strong PP prices have also started to deter buyers from purchasing more spot cargoes

ldquoPP prices are too high We donrsquot want to store too much in our warehouserdquo a buyer said

Downstream demand typically goes on a lull in June and July but any downward pressure on prices will be negated by a further tightening of supply as major plants will be taken off line for maintenance

ldquoWhen the maintenance season finishes in late June [PP] prices may start to go downrdquo a trader said

Demand is considered weakest at Qingdao in the eastern Shandong province due to government-mandated production cuts and logistics restrictions ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (SCO Summit) on 9-10 June

As of 1 June the combined polyolefin inventories of Chinese petrochemical majors Sinopec and PetroChina have declined back to normal levels of 700000 tonnes from a high of 1m tonnes in early March market sources said

Import supply to China may not improve in the short term as suppliers still deem other

Back to Quick Navigation | 40Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

Back to Quick Navigation | 43Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 10: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

AROMATICSPARAXYLENE

ASIA PX FACES DOWNWARD PRESSURE AS SUPPLY LENGTHENS INTO H2By Samuel Wong

Asiarsquos paraxylene (PX) prices are likely to face downward pressure going into the second half of 2018 due to new capacities coming on stream with no additional downstream units to absorb the supply

A total of 205myear of new PX capacities will be added in the second half including PetroRabighrsquos 135m tonneyear unit in Saudi Arabia and Nghi Son Refinery and Petrochemicalrsquos 700000 tonneyear unit in Vietnam

Asiarsquos PX intermonth spread is currently at a backwardation of $3-4tonne down from $12-15tonne in the first quarter as market participants were gradually pricing in the additional supply PX supply

There are expectations that the market will flip into a contango once smooth operations are achieved at the new PX units

Among new PX capacities PetroRabighrsquos new PX unit is expected to achieve full operations from the third-quarter onward after suffering some technical hiccups in the second quarter

Nghi Son on the other hand is expected to start exporting cargoes from its new PX unit from the second-half of July according to market participants

Asia will be in oversupply of PX as the total capacity increase would require 31m tonnesyear of downstream purified terephthalic acid (PTA) capacities but no firm PTA start-ups are on tap in the next six months

Moreover Chinarsquos Fuhaichuang Petrochemical formerly Dragon Aromatics (Zhangzhou) is planning to resume operations at its idled complex in the third quarter this year after more than three years of shutdown

Its Zhangzhou complex consists of a 16m tonneyear PX plant and a 45m tonneyear downstream PTA plant which constitutes three 15m tonneyear lines two of which have resumed operations since late 2017

According to market participants the company is likely to restart the third PTA line once smooth operations at its PX unit is achieved

In India JBF Grouprsquos 125m tonneyear PTA unit is supposed to begin production in the third quarter of 2018 but the schedule is still fluid according to market players

The company has recently entered into a deal with existing investor KRR for the private equity firm to acquire a majority stake in certain company assets as the company enters into discussions to restructure its debt on 18 May

In Europe Indorama Ventures plans to start up an idled Portugal-based 700000 tonneyear PTA unit which it recently acquired in July The plant formerly known as Artlant PTA originally came on stream in 2012 but closed in 2014 for financial reasons and bar a brief period in operation was subsequently idled

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Thailandrsquos Indorama Ventures acquired Atlant PTA in the fourth quarter of 2017

Asian PX prices are currently above those of main feedstock naphtha by more than the breakeven level of $250tonne while PX production via feedstock isomer-xylene through the parex process and feedstock toluene through the toluene disproportionation (TDP) route have also remained economically viable

All these will mean that PX producers will maintain high operating rates at their existing plants

Spot sales have been increasing amid strong production across the region A southeast Asia-based producer is currently offering around 15000-20000 tonnesmonth of cargoes double to triple the monthly volumes it offered in the previous year

The price gap between PX and naphtha has narrowed to $315tonne in the second quarter falling from the peak of around $425tonne in end-February as the market started pricing in the expected increase in supply

In the first half of the year Asiarsquos PX production losses were estimated at 167m tonnes due to a heavy turnaround schedule

Negotiations for PX Asian Contract Price (ACP) failed for three consecutive months from April after successful monthly settlements in the first quarter ndash when producers and end-users were in agreement that supply was restricted by the turnarounds amid healthy demand in Asia

Back to Quick Navigation | 10Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian paraxylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 11Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Arbitrage economics for deep-sea materials into Asia has largely remained shut since the start of the year mainly due to a tightly supplied market in the US

However Asia does not need the supply from the US ndash which ships out 10000-15000 tonnes of supply to this region on a monthly basis ndash once the new PX units achieved smooth operations according to market participants

Toward the fourth quarter a tightening of supply may provide support to PX prices with several plants in the key China market due for turnaround

PX prices are also expected to track movement in the upstream crude and naphtha prices as well as downstream PTA futures values

AROMATICSSTYRENE MONOMER

ASIA SM UP ON LIMITED SUPPLY TIGHTNESS TO EASE IN H2By Deborah Lee

Asiarsquos styrene monomer (SM) market ndash supported in the first half of 2018 by tight supply ndash is expected to see more arbitrage cargoes from the US and Europe besides completion of turnarounds which may put pressure on prices for the rest of the year

Already April and May cargoes have been loaded from the US and have either found buyers or are likely to do so in South Korea

Furthermore Chinarsquos turnarounds will largely be over by end June with demand for imports expected to fall as domestic production returns to normal

A final anti-dumping duty (ADD) decision by China over SM imports from South Korea Taiwan and the US is also being closely watched by market participants

The China ministry of commerce is expected to announce its final results of its ADD probe in June

Prices are expected to come off in the second half of the year as a result of easing of supply and already there is a steep backwardation in the market with the JuneJuly spread at $65-85tonne

The CFR China marker started off at $1335tonne the start of the year and peaked at $156250tonne early June The SM assessment has since softened but remained above the $1400tonne level

They were largely supported in the first half because of limited arbitrage arrivals amid unplanned plant issues and scheduled turnarounds in Europe and the US while the CFR (cost amp freight) China market was hit by the ADD imposed on South Korean Taiwanese and US origin cargoes

Besides planned plant maintenance in the US and Europe unexpected issues at several plants disrupted production further

In France Totalrsquos 600000 tonneyear SM plant in Gonfreville was affected by an outage at the producerrsquos cracker in the same location early February

But the biggest impact was from CosMarrsquos unplanned shutdown caused by equipment failure due to the polymerization at its purification units

Production at its 118m tonneyear plant in Carville Louisiana resumed April 10 nearly three months after it was shut mid-January

The tight supply situation almost guaranteed that there would be no arbitrage cargoes from the US and Europe heading into Asia

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But this was further secured by ADDs imposed on some of Chinarsquos key suppliers of SM as part of the Chinese authoritiesrsquo preliminary decision in February

This had greatly reduced options for the largest importer of SM cargoes in Asia

China which imported over 3m tonnes of SM in 2017 has had to turn to the Middle East southeast Asia and Japan to supplement cargoes it had received before from countries affected by ADD

Other macroeconomic factors boosted the CFR China assessment -- a stronger yuan rendered US dollar imports more competitive versus domestic cargoes for one

China also lowered VAT rates from 17 to 16 effective May 1 further bolstering interest in imported cargoes

Prices fell in end-February as some sellers offloaded cargoes due to an influx of arrivals

Concerns over end user demand emerged as the second quarter was expected to be a good demand season for SM and its derivatives but in reality buyers were slow to emerge deterred by high prices

In China in particular demand was slow to pick up after the Lunar New Year holiday because downstream producers were well stocked as operating rates were maintained during the typically low demand season in winter

This was in anticipation of rising SM prices due to the ADD probe

The additional spot cargoes in the market combined with lackluster demand pressured spot prices lower The CFR China assessment on 21 March fell to $1270tonne

As news of more turnarounds planned within China emerged domestic supply of SM was looking increasingly tight

With many plants due to be shut over April to June production was persistently lowered over the quarter and expectations of tight supply pushed the market higher again

Spot prices remained on an upswing as inventory levels slumped and prompt supply was limited

Stockpiles of SM in east China fell to a multi-year low as of 30 May at 37500 tonnes

Back to Quick Navigation | 13Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian styrene monomer (SM) markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 14Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Cargoes hitting Chinarsquos shores were not sufficient to meet the countryrsquos growing appetite for SM particularly as the Q3 manufacturing for exports season was fast approaching

Downstream producers however were struggling to pass on rising feedstock costs to their buyers

Thinning margins have led to some mulling lowering operating rates at its resin plants

Petrochemicals Analytics SolutionsOur new and enhanced petrochemical analytics and insight puts you in a stronger position so you can optimise your trades plans and strategies in order to secure a competitive advantage

ICIS is the only information provider to offer this unique combination of analytics tools as one subscription alongside pricing data and analysis

Live Supply Disruption TrackerPlant outages and maintenance for the next 12 months plus the impact of capacity changes

3 Pre-empt competition and capitalise on trades impacted by outages

3 Be aware of market shortages with a real-time view to manage risk and ensure security of stock

3 Negotiate better prices with other market players

Supply amp Demand OutlooksQuarterly global supply and demand review and outlook for key value chains and regions

3 Support your short-term strategy with upstream and downstream market sentiment and expectations for the current quarter at a regional level

3 Expand opportunities in international trade3 Understand at-a-glance the regional supply and

demand outlook across six key commodity chains

Price Drivers AnalyticsCross-commodity and cross-regional analysis of importexport parity substitution trends and feedstockdownstream spreads

3 Gain new context and negotiating tools in addition to ICIS price assessments

3 Pre-empt competition and spot opportunities with visual charts and impact commentaries

3 Reduce the time spent making manual calculations and spend more time on strategy and acting on market opportunities

4

360 view of the market l See the global market from

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Real-time information l Powered by 43000 plant

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AROMATICSTOLUENE

CHINA IMPORTS TO UNDERPIN ASIA TOLUENE MARKET IN H2 2018By Trixie Yap

Asiarsquos toluene market direction in the second half of this year will be determined by the buying activity from Chinese importers which has been the key factor influencing its prices so far in 2018

FOB (free on board) Korea prices which have been fluctuating in a wider-than-expected range for the past month closed at $760-785tonne in the week ended 1 June for June and July-loading parcels

The decreases at the close on 1 June marked the end of three weeksrsquo worth of stable-to-firm price trend

This followed weaker import demand from China for July which mainly stemmed from the ending of traders replenishing shore tank inventories at eastern ports such as Jiangsu

CFR (cost amp freight) China prices were in a sideways trend for most parts of early 2018 up to March at $690-765tonne

Prices only picked up after April and hit a peak of $835tonne CFR China after fluctuating in the $700-710tonne CFR China range for a few weeks

Unlike earlier expectations when market players were hoping for Chinese import demand to peak after the post early-March Lunar New Year period CFR China buying activity remained muted and only rose after May because of improved demand from the gasoline blenders

Blending demand received a boost because of lower gasoline production from state-owned refineries amid a spate of turnarounds in China ndash mainly in the eastern regions ndash starting end April to June

The better blending economics for toluene in early May particularly for the oil majors paved the way for demand as well

Back to Quick Navigation | 15Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Toluene-isomer xylenes spread on an ex-tank basis was wider with toluene being much more price friendly for gasoline production as compared to isomer xylene

With the 1 May implementation of a new online tax-filing system for oil and chemical products oil majors had no choice but to buy blend stocks themselves

Back to Quick Navigation | 16Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

instead of gasoline cargoes directly as the government was effectively making private gasoline blending activities unworkable as these blenders will not be able to potentially avoid tax payments via the paper filing system now

The presence of higher-than-expected inventories at east China main ports ndash stock levels hit a high of 76700 tonnes in early March ndash contributed further to the later timing of import demand Inventories only fell significantly after April (see chart above)

The only key issue hampering import demand from improving further was the

generally weak off taking activities from the downstream chemical sectors as isocynates benzoic acid benzyl chloride and other types of solvent products

The downstream demand was hampered because of low and unchanged operating rates because of stricter environmental regulations imposed by the government since second-half 2017

Looking ahead however the bleak demand situation for toluene from the chemical downstream sector could reverse soon starting August-September because of Wan Hua Chemicalrsquos new TDI plant start-up

The TDI plantsrsquo nameplate capacity is currently 300000 tonnesyear which could equate to around 160000 tonnesyear of toluene usage according to several market players

While this may not directly represent an increase in demand for CFR China import toluene cargoes it is likely to boost domestic toluene demand within north China particularly Shandong region and allow for potential arbitrage flows within the country

This in turn may support import parity of yuan-denominated ex-tank prices and allow for healthy distributor margins ndash if they consider to buy CFR China cargoes which is a key driver for majority of these import buyers

Market participants in China were quick to note also that supply increments ndash following at least three new plant start-ups this year ndash will outpace demand increments whichcould pose a problem in determining whichwill have a larger impact on import demandand prices

ldquoThe additional capacities may not be sold into the merchant market because there will still be captive usage since these producers are refineries with gasoline requirements and fulfilmentsrdquo one east China-based trader said

Ultimately it will be dependent on how the internal consumption for gasoline ndash of these new start-ups ndash will pan out leading up to the year-end

Changes in average operating rates of state-owned refineries due to turnarounds or outages will be another direction driver

Aside from China demand-supply fundamentals the other key price driver is the supply balance within Asia

Supply has been generally long between January and May owing to the stable operating plant rates and overall sufficient availability in southeast Asia a key net exporter within the region

Availability of northeast Asian cargoes was curtailed at some points in time ndash particularly in February and March ndashbecause of turnarounds

Back to Quick Navigation | 17Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 18Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

However supply has been steadily rising for cargoes loading in May and June ndash with the market seeing an additional of close to 30000 tonnes of product from South Korea alone ndash as some downstream plants had ongoing shutdown plans all the way till early July (see right)

All of these cargoes as expected are heading to China because of the opened arbitrage window for exports during the same time period

The increment in excess spot supply from South Korea ndash going forward ndash will be driven by downstream spreads for TDP operators since the benzene-toluene spreads have been narrowing consistently from March when the spreads hit a peak

The healthy spreads between toluene and xylenes (para and isomer) have been the only saving grace for the TDP market

ldquoBenzene demand-supply fundamentals are likely to continue remaining weak with increments in supply still expected from Middle East and Vietnam from June so that is going to still put pressure on TDP operators whether to run their unit with more toluene or less toluene [since they can adjust the amount of feedstock]rdquo one northeast Asian end-user said

ldquoBenzene demand-supply fundamentals are likely to continue remaining weak with increments in supply still expected from Middle East and Vietnam from June so that is going to still put pressure on TDP operators whether to run their unit with more toluene or less toluene [since they can adjust the amount of feedstock]rdquo one northeast Asian end-user said

There is also hope that supply will be curbed again in the autumn season ndash when several plants start their planned maintenances ndash to provide a temporary relief to the readily sufficient spot availability

Ultimately if Chinarsquos importing activity continues to be robust there will be no issues with them soaking up the excess supplies at any point of time

ldquoThe key issue is how much these buyers can procure and how long their buying activities can last but so far it has been very sporadic and capped to short time frames because of them being risk averserdquo one southeast Asian trader said

Back to Quick Navigation | 19Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian toluene markets

BASE OILSBASE OILS

ASIA MIDEAST BASE OILS FIRM IN H1 BUT SOME PULLBACK LIKELY IN H2By Jasmine Khoo amp Izham Ahmad

Asia base oils Group I SN150 and Group II 150N prices are expected to remain firm on persistently low supply whereas the heavy grades - Group I SN500 and Group II 500600N - could come under pressure on ample availability

Into the second half of the year base oils supply from Iran are expected to be stable with no known maintenance plans due over the following few months from June and that could add further pressure on prices amid the weak demand outlook

Only one Iranian refiner is due for a maintenance shutdown in the second half of the year possibly sometime in September according to market sources

In Group II like in Asia short supply of 150N and 500600N is expected to support prices in coming months but the Group II segment in the Middle East is a much smaller market for producers

Major Group II and III producers in Saudi Arabia Qatar Bahrain and UAE also continue to focus on their traditional markets outside of the Middle East due to stronger demand and higher margins

Brightstock remained largely stable for June in terms of pricing following deals done at parity with Mayrsquos levels but market players maintained a cautious stance towards brightstock pricing which would typically see downward pressure towards the end of the year

The winter season in parts of Asia would typically herald a period of slow cargo uptake for brightstock as transportation logistics get more challenging

As for Group III base oils northeast Asian-origin lots are expected to see support in spot prices from June as seen from healthy uptake among buyers amid short supply from regional suppliers

Similarly in the Middle East market Group I prices started the year on a firm note

Around mid-February SN500 prices traded up to $80750tonne FOB (free on board) Iran their highest levels since ICIS began tracking the data in November 2015

SN150 also traded their record highs about the same time hitting $72750tonne FOB Iran

These record highs were held until early May despite buyers at the time showing increasing resistance to the higher levels and the uncertainty that took hold of the market ahead of a deadline for the US to decide on whether it would remain in the Iran nuclear deal

On 8 May US president Donald Trump announced that the US will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal and re-impose sanctions on Tehran consequently driving up crude prices to new highs since late 2014

Iranrsquos base oils prices were largely stable in that week but market outlook has been clouded with uncertainties following the USrsquo decision to re-impose sanctions on the country

Group I SN500 prices were stable through the early half of May at $780-805tonne FOB Iran while Group I SN150 were holding at $710-745tonne FOB Iran since early-February according to ICIS data

Prices began to decline around mid-May when it became more apparent that the increased sanctions would cause at least some disruptions to business dealings with Iranian entities

Market players said they encountered difficulties in financial transactions with Iran and many financial institutions were reluctant to take on any dealings involving Iran-based businesses for fear of conflicting with the US sanctions

On the supply side market players in the UAE said there were sufficient cargoes built up over recent months and as such

there was less demand for further spot deals in Group I particularly with the threat of renewed sanctions

Mid-May also marked the start of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan which is a typically slow season for the Middle East

Certain manufacturing activities are reduced as factories observed shorter operating hours and as many workers took some vacation time as well

The Eid ul-Fitr long holidays followed the end of Ramadan in mid-June

Asiarsquos base oils market trends for certain widely-traded Group I grades snapped out of persistent uptrend in late April against a backdrop of increasingly squeezed buyersrsquo margins and waning demand

Steady gains in FOB Asia spot prices were recorded since September 2017 on the back of regional shortages as demand surpassed output

This was partly fuelled by natural disasters in the US when Hurricane Harvey disrupted between 20 and 25 of the countryrsquos refining capacity in August

The disruption to base oils production at some units led to increased appetite for deep-sea shipments from Asia to the US

In the current market SN500 prices registered the greatest drops among the ICIS assessed grades shedding slightly more than 12 of its spot pricing between 13 April and 25 May ICIS data showed

Market participants attributed the price dip to lackluster demand brought about by a supply overhang of domestically-produced SN400 in the local Chinese market

Competitive pricing of SN400 amid ample availability curtailed import appetite among China-based buyers for SN500 of Asian origin especially since some buyers were still holding on to sufficient stocks for the near term

Back to Quick Navigation | 20Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Brightstock prices also softened reflecting increasingly squeezed buyersrsquo margins following steep gains seen from 22 September 2017 to 23 March 2018 in FOB Asia export prices

Some buyers were also sitting on sufficient inventories from active procurement earlier in the year leading to waned demand

This led refiners and traders to cut offers to encourage cargo uptake for May shipment cargoes

Group II 150N and 500600N prices largely held up on the back of potential supply woes in the summer season amid scheduled shutdowns at major Asian refineries

Taiwanrsquos Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) is expected to conduct planned maintenance in July market sources said

This led market players to hold on to expectations of buoyed spot prices for Group II base oils in the near term though significant increase is not expected for certain grades such as 500600N amid ample spot availability in the region

Group III 4 and 6cst base oils largely continued their steady price uptrend reflecting short supply among key South Korean Group III suppliers

8cst base oils of northeast Asian origin amid comparatively greater availability than its lighter counterparts saw less gains in prices since the beginning of 2018

South Korean-origin Group III base oils prices were mostly buoyant despite an influx of Middle East-origin Group III base oils into the northeast Asian market since November 2017 as South Korean-origin Group III users adhered largely to using the same material due to formulation restrictions and related OEM approvals

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian base oils markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 21Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPURIFIED TEREPHTHALIC ACID (PTA)

ASIA PTA SUPPLY TO LENGTHEN IN H2 ON INDIA CHINA PLANT START-UPSBy Samuel Wong

Supply of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in Asia is expected to lengthen in the second half of 2018 as new capacities will start up in the major markets of India and China amid a slowdown in demand

Major plants would have resumed production after unplanned outages to ease the current global supply tightness that has been driving up Asian prices while demand typically weakens in the third quarter

Asian PTA prices may start to come under pressure as fresh supply will hit the markets when new major regional plants start production in the third quarter

ldquoMarket sentiment is currently pessimistic about the outlook however this can quickly change if we see a sudden uptick in downstream demandrdquo a China-based producer said

In India JBF Grouprsquos 125m tonneyear PTA unit in Mangalore is expected to start up in the third quarter although the schedule is still fluid according to several market participants

In China Fuhaichuang Petrochemical formerly known as Dragon Aromatics (Zhangzhou) is planning to resume operations at its complex in the third quarter of 2018 after a prolonged shutdown

Its petrochemical complex in Zhangzhou has a 45m tonneyear PTA plant comprisings three 15m tonneyear lines two of which have been in operation since end-2017 The company is likely to restart the third line once smooth operations at its upstream paraxylene (PX) unit at the site is achieved market players said

In Europe Indorama Ventures Portugal plans to start up in July an idled 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Sines Thailand-based Indorama Ventures Ltd acquired the

plant from Portuguese Artlant PTA in late 2017

All these factors should see the narrowing of the price gap between Chinarsquos import and domestic markets as early as July after widening steadily from March to May

As of 12 June the gap stood at $96tonne down from the peak of about $111tonne on 30 May

Asiarsquos PTA prices are currently steady at firm levels Regional end-users preferred to procure cargoes on a need-to basis and were not keen on building inventories

Future movement will depend on market conditions in the downstream polyester industry

The wide price gap in Chinarsquos import and domestic markets has been deterring Chinese buyers from tapping the international spot market for supplies since March while demand was healthy especially in the downstream polyethylene terephthalate (PET) markets

Tight global supply in the first half saw Asian producers shipping out cargoes to the Middle East as well as Europe which was hit by unplanned outages in Belgium and Poland in April

Back to Quick Navigation | 22Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

In Europe BP Chemical on 15 April declared a force majeure at its Belgium PTA unit and a second force majeure on 17 May PKN Orlen on 23 April declared a force majeure at its Wloclawek PTA unit in Poland which was subsequently lifted on 2 May with spot cargoes from the plant limited until after a planned maintenance in SeptemberOctober 2018

Within Asia the southeastern region has had PTA plant outages and had to procure cargoes from the northeast in the preceding two months

Regional supply tightened further with the unexpected shutdown of Hanwha General Chemicalrsquos 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Daesan prompting a force majeure declaration on 21 May

In the first half of 2018 strong growth in demand in the downstream polyester markets in Asia particularly China supported the rally in PTA prices amid tight supply

Downstream polyester markets were enjoying positive margins keeping demand for feedstock PTA healthy

In the key China market operating rates at polyester units were higher compared with the previous year

The countryrsquos PTA production losses in January-June 2018 on the other hand were estimated at around 134m tonnes due to planned and unplanned outages

Asiarsquos PTA producers were largely enjoying healthy margins on the back of steady demand growth in the downstream polyester markets Firmer upstream energy

and feedstock PX prices have also buoyed PTA prices

In January to May 2018 Brent crude traded at $6692-7616bbl up by about 25 year

on year while PX prices were at $938-994tonne representing a 15 increase over the same period

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian purified terephthalic acid (PTA)) markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 23Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPOLYETHYLENE TEREPHTHALATE (PET)

ASIA PET TO REMAIN FIRM IN Q3 AS TIGHT SUPPLY SUPPORT PRICESBy Hazel Goh

Asian polyethylene terephthalate (PET) market is likely to remain firm in the third quarter on the back of tight supply a trend that has supported prices so far in 2018

Recently PET tight supply is a result of production cuts in Asia and Europe that have not had a clear estimated date of resuming normal operations

China Resources Packaging had cut production at its PET lines in Changzhou by 50 following notice from the government to reduce pollution in end-May It is not known for how long the production cuts will remain in place

In Europe there had been feedstock purified terephthalic acid (PTA) supply tightness leading to recent PET production cuts and force majeure by Novapet and JBF respectively

Many buyers had been purchasing on a need-to basis expecting that firm prices are unsustainable and will come down Subsequently they did not stock up cargoes ahead of the peak summer demand season for countries in the northern hemisphere

The reality turned out different and they had to accept higher prices as production cuts kept the supply tight

PET used to track feedstock price movements closely as it had been an oversupplied market and producers typically operate on thin margins

The oversupply situation changed and tightness was first felt in the third quarter of 2017 when plant closures by JBF RAK in the UAE and Belgium and by Mossi amp Ghisolfi (MampG) in the US Mexico and Brazil following financial tightness in the two PET-producing companies

Hurricane Harvey that hit the US in the third quarter led to further production cuts in the US

Back to Quick Navigation | 24Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 1

From then on supply remained tight as the plant under JBF RAK in the UAE and the former MampG plant in the US that had been acquired by Far Eastern remained shut for extended period of time even into 2018

Market players previously had concerns about where China will export its material when final anti-dumping duties (ADD) - heard to be at the same level as thepreliminary duties of 398-530 - wereimposed on its cargoes into Japan inJanuary

Japan was the top exporting destination for Chinese cargoes before the ADD following which the exports dropped drastically

While other producers such as Taiwanese southeast Asian Indian and South Korean producers sold more volumes into Japan Chinese makers sold to other markets that were relinquished by the other producers

Table 1 shows a significant difference between 2016 and 2017 in Chinarsquos export volumes to key destinations from the January-to-March period

Ranked by volume starting with largestvolume as 1

There is an ongoing anti-dumping duty (ADD) investigation by the US on PET cargoes from Brazil Pakistan Indonesia Taiwan and South Korea

The Commerce Department issued the preliminary dumping rates for Indonesia at 1316 South Korea at 881-10141 and Taiwan at 902-1189 in May Final determinations will be issued by 8 November

Even so some producers from the countries under investigation continued to receive buying enquiries from the US amid the current tight supply situation

There will be some upcoming new capacities expected in Q3 as shown in table 2 that may bring about a more balanced supply to meet the demand

The US plant acquired by Far Eastern is estimated to restart in June-July which should also ease the supply tightness

Even with the new capacities and plant restarts market participants think it is unlikely that PET market will return to the oversupply situation seen in the previous years

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PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian PET markets

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Table 2

Our English-language report coverage includes

Styrene MEG Propylene

BTX Methanol Base Oil

BPA PE MTBE

Phenol PP Mixed AromaticsAcetone Oxo-Alcohol

Trusted industryintelligence for Chinarsquoscommodity marketsDevelopments in Chinarsquos petrochemicals industrycontinue to affect the global marketplace It istherefore vital for domestic and internationalmarket players to keep track of changes withinthe country to know where opportunities lie

ICIS has long been recognised as a reliablesource of information our locally-based expertscompile reports and analyses in English tosupport industry participants dealing with Chinamarkets or seeking to trade or invest

Pricing informationOur pricing data provide key insights into pricetrends in China to support your short-termdecision-making negotiations and analyses

bull Import and export spot and contract pricesbull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity

and upstreamdownstream marketsbull Data on inventory levels and price marginsbull Plant and production news

Petrochemicals Analytics SolutionsProviding our customers with a 360-degree view of the Chinese market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker - real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for thenext 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics - key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock anddo wnstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlooks

Available for key chemical commodities

wwwiciscomchina

Discover how we can meet your market information needs

enquiryiciscom

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESMONOETHYLENE GLYCOL (MEG)

ASIA MEG TO SEE DEMAND TAPERING LOWER SUPPLY IN EARLY H2By Eric Su

The Asian monoethylene glycol (MEG) market could see demand slowing down from the end of June while supply will be reduced from a number of plant turnarounds

Inventories are expected to decline in June after offtake rates at Chinese main ports rose sharply in the last two weeks of May because of an uptick in demand from downstream polyester buyers

Demand for MEG is also expected to remain strong in the first half of June boosted by high polyester production rates of above 85 and modestly low inventory levels

A slowdown in demand may take place in the second half of June as the traditional manufacturing peak period nears its end in July

Meanwhile supply conditions could tighten because of the plant turnarounds in northeast Asia

However supply from the Middle East will likely resume to normal levels given that there were no further delay in shipments in May

MEG prices in Asia have registered year-on-year growth rates in the months to June this year

MEG prices have mostly hovered above $900tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China Main Port (CMP) while prices were mostly below $900tonne CFR CMP in 2017

Prices have been volatile in 2018 with major price swings seen on a near monthly basis since February

MEG prices in first quarter of 2018 continued the uptrend seen in the fourth quarter of 2017 rising to $1030tonne CFR CMP in early March from $922tonne CFR

CMP in late December as the higher-than-expected growth in downstream polyester fuelled bullish market sentiment

Polyester growth in 2017 was estimated at above 10 beating an originally bearish expectation of 2-3

A price downtrend was observed in March with the MEG weekly average price losing nearly 10 of its value to $929tonne CFR CMP by end-March

The price decline coincided with a sharp influx of imported cargoes which was likely a result of over-procurement in January

Back to Quick Navigation | 26Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

and February when prices were trending upwards

March 2018 import volumes rose to nearly 1m tonnes a record three-year high according to official China customs data

MEG prices rebounded in April rising by around 9 from end-March to $1014tonne CFR CMP by end-April ahead of the traditional peak period for the downstream polyester sector The average polyester production rate rose to above 85 during the period

MEG also achieved its to-date weekly peak of $1042tonne CFR CMP in the week ending 20 April

Supply tightness was also observed in the Chinese domestic market because of shipment delays from the Middle East and logistical issues at China main ports over the same period

The lack of availability of prompt cargoes also led to an atypical price spread between April and May delivery parcels

Normally the spread between arrived-at-port and far-term arrival cargoes is at $0-10tonne CFR CMP but this widened to $20-30tonne CFR CMP This drove concerns of sharp price adjustments in May once April deliveries were fulfilled

These concerns came true as MEG prices

began to slide in May MEG weekly prices stood at $928tonne CFR CMP in the last week of May falling from $1003tonne CFR CMP in early May

High inventory levels have also weighed on MEG prices Inventory levels were above 900000 tonnes from early May onward rising to 938000 tonnes by in late March Most market participants deemed inventory levels above 900000 tonnes to be high

The increase in inventory levels in May were largely attributed to the arrival of Middle East shipments which were previously due for arrival in April

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Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 27Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSETHYLENE

NE ASIA ETHYLENE H2 OUTLOOK HINGES ON NEW SUPPLY SM PLANTBy Yeow Pei Lin

Northeast (NE) Asiarsquos ethylene (C2) second-half 2018 outlook is uncertain as several crackers are scheduled for maintenance but such production losses could be offset by the start up of a new plant and cargoes from outside the region

More than 20 crackers in Asia are slated to undergo maintenance in 2018 with the estimated capacity losses totalling more than 185m tonnes Most of the turnarounds in the first half of the year were concentrated in Japan ndash a key exporter to China

However several more companies are to carry out turnarounds in June and the rest of the year

The impact on the regional balance will depend on the start-up progress of a new facility in South Korea and on whether the strong exports from southeast Asia and Europe in the first half of 2018 will continue

Shipments from Yeosu South Korea will start to slow down in August ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at complexes in that region

Exports will recover by December when Lotte Chemical brings on-stream an added capacity of 200000 tonnesyear at its Yeosu cracker

The facility will undergo an expansion during a turnaround from late September to October

Shipments from Ulsan another petrochemical cluster in South Korea will grow in the second half of 2018

Newcomer S-Oil is expected to begin commercial operations at its residue upgrading complex (RUC) in Onsan in the second half of June

The companyrsquos entire ethylene output of up

to around 200000 tonnesyear is intended for the merchant market as it does not have any downstream plants

Exports from southeast Asian producers will continue to be driven by the higher value from ethylene sales in the ethylene versus polyethylene (PE) trade-off

There will however be supply constraints

Four crackers in the region will undergo

maintenance and the affected producers include ExxonMobil and PTT Global Chemicals (PTTGC) that were regular exporters in the first half of 2018

Exports from Europe will likely be influenced by the performance of the PE sector

The outlook for the PE market in Europe is uncertain given the growing prospect of competitively-priced exports from the new US plants

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Ethylene costs in the US have been at low levels since early 2018 as production growth outpaces that for consumption

Since late 2017 about 3m tonnesyear of new ethylene capacity and about 35m tonnesyear of new PE capacity have started up in the US

The new crackers have been running well but several of the new PE plants struggled to reach full operating rates

Exports from Saudi Arabia are expected to be constrained by increased domestic consumption

Petro Rabigh announced in April that the last few plants in its Phase 2 project including a 75000 tonneyear ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) unit have started up

The companyrsquos ethylene exports could fall further in the second half of 2018 following the completion of its PE plant maintenance shutdowns earlier in the year

Chinarsquos import demand is poised for further growth when a new 260000 tonneyear styrene monomer (SM) plant starts up in the third quarter as planned

Anhui Haoyuan Chemical will be operating the unit in Fuyang Anhui on a standalone basis as its plans to build a methanol-to-olefin (MTO) plant have been put on hold amid high methanol prices

The plant will require around 78000 tonnes of ethylene annually to operate at maximum capacity

Based on the above factors it was not immediately clear if the ethylene prices in the second half will follow the volatile trend they displayed in the first five months of 2018

NE Asia spot ethylene prices were volatile from January to May as the impact of a heavy regional cracker turnaround schedule and strong Chinese demand was at times outweighed by strong exports from southeast Asia the Middle East and Europe

The market started the year at above a two and a half year high of $1415tonne CFR (cost amp freight) NE Asia in early January

Subsequent transacted prices fluctuated within a low $1200stonne to mid $1300stonne CFR NE Asia band in the five months ended 31 May

Prices in the first quarter were initially weighed down by ample supply from producers in the Middle East and Asia due to a series of PE plant shutdowns - both planned and unplanned

That was despite strong pre-Lunar New Year holiday restocking activities in China

Demand was bolstered by the start up of a 500000 tonneyear non-integrated SM plant and generally healthy downstream margins for producers outside the PE sector

End-users were also keen to build up their inventories because of the slow progress in their 2018 term contract discussions ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at facilities of key exporters in the region

In addition a major ethylene oxide (EO) maker was seeking more import cargoes following a disruption in supply from its upstream MTO unit The plant was shut twice between late November and the first half of February because of high feedstock methanol costs

The market recovered in early March in line with the start of the annual cracker turnaround season in northeast Asia where

scheduled capacity losses in 2018 will be overall higher than the previous year

That explained why the countryrsquos exports from January to April slumped by 14 year-on-year to 201274 tonnes

In late April northeast Asiarsquos spot prices fell again after a surprisingly large quantity of deep-sea spot cargoes were sold into Asia for delivery between the middle of May and the first half of June

There were at least 55000-60000 tonnes of cargoes from Europe in addition to 11000 tonnes of US supply for that delivery period Europe was in a long position because of derivative maintenance shutdowns and production problems

Continued strong exports from southeast Asia owing to downstream production issues and the weak performance of the linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) market contributed to the downbeat sentiment

The ample supply outweighed Chinarsquos robust import demand

Buying interest in China was strong for April and May arrival cargoes on the back

Back to Quick Navigation | 29Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

of healthy downstream margins for certain downstream markets such as SM EO and monoethylene glycol (MEG)

Ethylene buyers in China were also keen to book deep-sea cargoes to offset the expected regional production losses from cracker turnarounds

Prices rebounded quickly in mid-May

aided by a bullish SM market and reduced domestic supply

Some MTO operators lowered production in May as high feedstock methanol costs led to squeezed margins while a key producer in east China lowered its cracker run rates unexpectedly

Sharp increases in feedstock naphtha costs

which tracked gains on crude oil futures also helped set a floor to the earlier price declines

By early June spot ethylene prices had touched a 20-week high raising questions on whether the market will see similar price volatility in the second half of 2018

Producers will turn hawkish if the outlook for crude and naphtha markets remains upbeat

Back to Quick Navigation | 30Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSPROPYLENE

TIGHT NE ASIA PROPYLENE SUPPLY TO LIMIT H2 PRICE FLUCTUATIONSBy Joson Ng

Tight propylene (C3) supply in northeast Asia amid a heavy turnaround schedule in 2018 will continue supporting regional prices of the material into the second half

Sellers are likely to continue passing on firmer costs to buyers which are wary of October when heavy propylene production losses are expected

Buyersrsquo resistance in the key China market would keep any further increase in propylene prices in check with some downstream producers considering cutting output due to high feedstock costs

At the start of June propylene prices have weakened ending the strong general uptrend since end-March amid weakness in Chinarsquos domestic market as demand softened due to turnarounds at downstream polypropylene (PP) plants

However the downward pressure on regional prices may be temporary as overall supply in Asia is expected to be tight

In early June spot propylene prices in northeast Asia were about 9 higher from the start of 2018 according to ICIS data

The year started on a bullish note fuelled by a heavier cracker turnaround schedule compared with 2017 and higher premium levels concluded for contract cargoes

The uptrend was sustained into February due to restocking activities in various import markets in northeast Asia before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February

Before the holidays some South Korean producers were convinced the market will experience supply shortage as both GS Caltexrsquos fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity and Yeochun NCCrsquos (YNCC) cracker ndash which can produce 280000 tonnesyear of propylene ndash were due for maintenance in February through to April

But propylene prices surprisingly weakened from 9 February to end-March without demand support from Chinarsquos weak PP market which struggled through sluggish sales and high inventory after the countryrsquos week-long Lunar New Year holiday

A renewed wave of scheduled turnarounds at regional plants tightened supply and drove up propylene prices in April and May

In Taiwan Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) took its residue fluid catalytic

Back to Quick Navigation | 31Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

cracking (RFCC) unit with a 350000 tonneyear propylene capacity off stream from 1 March to mid-April while CPC Corp shut its 100000 tonneyear FCC unit on 10 April and restarted in early June

In South Korea GS Caltex also had a turnaround at its FCC unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity from 19 February to 5 April

SK Advanced shut its propane dehydrogenated (PDH) unit with 600000 tonneyear propylene capacity on 21 April to early May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian propylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 32Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

To talk to someone about price forecast reports call the numbers below or email us at salesukiciscomAsia-Pacific Europe Africa and Middle East The AmericasTel +65 6789 8828 Tel +44 20 8652 3335 Tel +1 713 525 2600 or Toll free +1 888 525 3255 (US and Canada only)

ICIS price forecast reportsSupply demand and price trends at a glance

ICIS price forecast reports provide a clear view of prices and supply and demand trends for the next 12 months Packed with vital information the report includes everything you need to assess where the market is heading and the impact or opportunity that presents for your business

To find out more or take a trial visit wwwiciscompriceforecast

Price Forecast Window

ICIS price forecasts are now available on the Dashboard channel using the Price Forecast Window which will enable users to

n Chart the price forecast against the last (rolling) twelve months of related price history

n Plot the last 12 months to view forecast progression and ICIS forecast accuracy

n Convert data into different currencies and units and download this data into Excel in order to easily enter into your own calculations

How price forecast reports can help youn Understand the marketUse ICIS price forecast reports to understand where the market is heading and identify the risks and the opportunities for your business What are the major demand developments for your product n Safeguard commercial decisionsUse market information to make better-informed business decisions relating to supply and demand Learn about changes in market capacities What factors will affect supply for you n Budgeting and planningWhether you are planning how much you will be spending in the short-to medium or even long term use the price forecast reports to help assess future prices for your product What will the price of your product be in six monthsrsquo time

Price forecast reports currently

available

Available as price forecast windows only

Polypropylene

Polyethylene

Benzene

StyrenePolystyrene

Methanol

Ethylene

Propylene

Styrene

Asia Europe US Global

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

OLEFINSBUTADIENE

ASIA BD TO FLUCTUATE IN H2 AS SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE SHIFTSBy Helen Yan

Asiarsquos butadiene (BD) spot prices for July shipments are likely to face downward pressure but any price downtrend is likely to reverse when cracker turnarounds start to kick in from September onwards

BD prices are expected to be weighed down before seeing support again in the third quarter as the supply and demand balance shifts during this period

The fourth quarter will likely see support for BD prices although the increases may be tempered by resistance from the downstream synthetic rubber (SR) makers to any significant price hikes

The busy cracker turnaround season in September-November will likely see supply tightening at the same time that demand is expected to pick up during this period

Several crackers and BD units including South Korearsquos Lotte Chemical LG Chem and Chinarsquos Shanghai Secco and Maoming Petrochemical are scheduled to shut during

the September to November time frame

In the near term BD spot prices are likely to continue to trend lower as demand wanes while supply at the same time is expected to lengthen due to an influx of deep-sea cargoes and regional cracker restarts

More than 15000 tonnes of deep-sea cargoes from EU are expected to arrive in Asia in June and July at the same time that crackers in Asia including Indiarsquos Haldia Petrochemical and Indonesiarsquos Chandra Asri resume their production following their maintenance shutdowns

On 8 June spot prices fell to $1725tonne CFR (cost amp freight) northeast (NE) Asia the second consecutive week of decline after spiralling upwards in the two months since early April

BD spot prices had increased by more than 40 since early April peaking at $1800tonne CFR NE Asia on 25 May

Strong demand from derivative acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) makers which were running their plants at optimal rates had bolstered the BD price upsurge during this period

However derivative styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) and polybutadiene rubber (PBR) producers the key consumers of BD cut their production output given the continued erosion in margins

Several major SBR and PBR producers said their margins had fallen into negative territory and retreated from the BD spot market in June

Chinese spot appetite in particular tapered off as domestic BD prices were lower compared with the US dollar-denominated import prices

In China Hangzhou Zhechen Jilin Petrochemical Zhejiang Transfar and Shen Hua Chemical were some of the SBR and PBR plants that are shut for maintenance in June and July

Several SBR and PBR plants in Taiwan and South Korea were also running at lower rates following the 40 BD price spike in the two months from early April to end-May

In South Korea major SR producer Korea Kumho Petrochemical PC was running its SBR and PBR plants at reduced rates

Back to Quick Navigation | 33Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian butadiene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 34Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Similarly Taiwanrsquos TSRC also cut the production output of its SBR and PBR plants

The outlook for the fourth quarter is expected to see a different turn of events with SBR and PBR plants resuming their production and ramping up their operating rates while supply during the last quarter is expected to tighten from the heavy cracker turnaround season

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYETHYLENE (PE)

SOUTHEAST ASIA PE MARKET FACES LONGER H2 SUPPLY WEAK DEMANDBy Felita Widjaja

Southeast Asiarsquos polyethylene (PE) market may be facing longer supply in the second half hinging on how the US-China trade spat plays out amid the regionrsquos weakening demand for imports

Global PE trade flows will be affected should China the biggest importer of spot PE cargoes in the world decide to impose retaliatory 25 tariff on US cargoes

Southeast Asia as an alternative buying region might be hard pressed to absorb additional supply from the US where massive PE capacities recently started up which were meant to cater to huge Chinese demand

Around 5m tonnes of additional US PE capacities are expected from several major projects including those in the pipeline to start up within the second half of 2018

China primarily imports PE cargoes from Asia and the Middle East while the US is its sixth leading PE supplier in 2017

ldquoEventually more substantial and regular volume of US [PE] cargoes are expected to be traded in Asia in the second half of the year as we have yet to see them in the first half of this yearrdquo said a regional trader

Any changes in trade flows would pose challenges to US suppliers in the short term as they would need to revamp their logistics and distribution channels to redirect cargoes to other markets

Suppliers from the Middle East meanwhile might take the opportunity to supply more cargoes to China and would mean fewer volumes available to the southeast Asian market

The Middle East is southeast Asiarsquos major PE supplier

Demand for PE imports in southeast Asia has been weak amid lower prices in

Back to Quick Navigation | 35Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

the domestic markets as in the case of Thailand

ldquoThai traders are not keen to import as local prices are more competitive so they do not have the margin to sell the imported cargoes in local market Only some converters who need specific cargoes continue to importrdquo said a local Thai trader

Malaysia and Indonesia with predominantly Muslim populations have seen market activity slow down since mid-May when the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan started Ramadan ends with the Eid ul-Fitr holiday on 15 June

The Indonesian government has declared a longer Eid-ul Fitr holiday this year from 11-20 June

Markets in Singapore and the Philippines will be closed for the mid-June holiday as well

With supply expected to become long some market players expect regional PE prices in July and August to ease from

June with restocking activities expected to kick in towards the end of the third quarter

In the first half of 2018 southeast Asiarsquos average prices for commodity PE were largely stable to firm owing to suppliersrsquo relatively comfortable-to-tight supply for most of the period

At the start of June high density polyethylene (HDPE) film grade prices averaged $1395tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia while linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) film were at $1210tonne CFR SE Asia and $1265tonne CFR SE Asia respectively according to ICIS data

Prices had spiked in the first quarter as suppliers were holding comfortable-to-tight inventory as several regional producers have scheduled turnarounds at their plants in March Production issues and shutdowns in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia also limited availability of imports to southeast Asia during this period

Supply for HDPE film was particularly tight as some producers from the Middle East as well as Asia switched their focus into making HDPE pipe grade amid robust demand and better netbacks

The price uptrend across most PE grades could not be sustained in the second quarter although prices remained relatively stable-to-firm

The depreciation of local currencies in southeast Asia against the US dollar in most of the second quarter was also curbing overall demand for imports A weaker currency makes US dollar-denominated imports expensive

ldquoIndonesian buyers have not been buying much cargoes as the market slowed down during Ramadan and also because of weak rupiah which led the central bank to increase interest rate to limit the depreciationrdquo said a regional producer

CHINA PE IMPORTS TO STAY STRONG AMID DOMESTIC PLANT TURNAROUNDS By Angie Li

Chinarsquos polyethylene (PE) imports are expected to remain strong for the rest of the year after posting record volumes in January to April 2018 amid scheduled turnarounds at domestic facilities

Buyers in China have been accumulating imported PE cargoes as these were priced lower compared futures prices since the start of the year

More cargoes will be available to China as new capacities in the US are expected to boost production

For the month of May the countryrsquos PE imports are projected to reach 12m tonnes higher than the monthly average in the first four months of 2018

In January to April 2018 its PE imports volumes totaled 447m tonnes up by 12 from the previous corresponding period according to industry sources

The import volumes were making up for the production losses in the domestic market due to scheduled turnarounds

On 1 June low density PE (LDPE) imports were assessed at $1155-1180tonne linear low density PE (LLDPE) stood at $1150-1170tonne while high density PE (HDPE) film products were at $1340-1400tonne according to ICIS data

The prices have increased 15-62 from end-March but the gains came in lower than market playersrsquo expectations considering the heavy production loss due to turnarounds from April

Back to Quick Navigation | 36Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

An estimated 500000 tonnes are expected to be shaved in the second quarter due to scheduled maintenance at domestic facilities according ICIS data

ldquoWe thought the hefty plant turnarounds in the second quarter should lead to a surge in PE prices but the LDPE and LLDPE prices were less than satisfactory although HDPE prices [were] highrdquo said an east China-based trader referring to both the import and domestic PE prices

Strong imports amid hedging activities bloated the total supply in China in January to April to 998m tonnes up by 8 from the previous corresponding period with supply of LDPE and LLDPE up by 14 and 8 respectively market sources said

Imports of HDPE inched up by 2 over the same period given the gradersquos comparatively higher prices compared with LLDPE and LDPE

Increased availability due to recent capacity expansions and start-ups in Asia the Middle East also fuels Chinarsquos appetite for import cargoes

In the first quarter of 2018 additional cargoes from Saudi Arabia were mostly from Sadara Chemical which started up its 750000 tonneyear swing plant and 350000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Al Jubail during late 2016 and early 2017 respectively

Cargoes of Iran origin augmented the total volume from the UAE as market players try to go around the financial sanctions on Tehran Kordestan Petrochemicalrsquos 300000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Iran came on stream in March 2017

UAErsquos Borouge has also ramped up pipe and HDPE film exports to China during the period according to a supplier in the Middle East

Meanwhile PE imports from Singapore surged 38 year on year while those from India more than doubled to 127000 tonnes according to China Customs data

The ban on waste plastics implemented in China in the year also bolstered imports of virgin PE Some waste plastics processed overseas and then re-entered the market as virgin products but these volumes were limited

Last year China has imported 194m tonnes of PE waste plastics while

volumes in 2018 will be negligible with the implemention of the ban

Chinarsquos PE production this year is expected to increase by around 7 to about 17m tonnes in 2018 with imports projected to grow by 102 to around 13m tonnes according to a source from state-owned petrochemical giant PetroChina

Domestic demand for PE on the other hand is forecast to grow by 8 this year mainly from the packaging and pipe markets

Chinarsquos ongoing campaign to switch to using gas for power generation instead of coal is expected to continue boosting demand for PE gas pipes this year

The packaging industry will also drive up PE consumption underpinned by growth in electronic commerce Chinarsquos express delivery volumes reached 137bn packages during January-April 2018 based on data from the recent China Express Industry Development Conference in May

Back to Quick Navigation | 37Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 38Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

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bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

By Jonathan Lopez

ICIS NewsThe leading news service for real-time ground breaking news and analysis on the global petrochemicals markets

The ICIS News services give you unrivalled access to the most in-depth stories impacting the petrochemicals markets influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions

Our team of global editors are reporting around the clock to bring you the latest news and analysis so that you get the full picture of market and pricing developments first providing you with invaluable foresight to take advantage of every opportunity and to stay ahead of your competitors

With ICIS News you will be the first to read

Breaking news on the chemical markets that will impact your business

News on market moves deals and announcements that will affect your organisation

Force majeures closures and developments that influence your commodity prices

Expert analysis on industry trends and hot topics ndash know whatrsquos happening and why

Searchable archive with over 14 million articles from the past 10 years

Chemical Business News Base (CBNB) is a premium resource available on ICIS News It provides you with an extensive external source of upstream and downstream petrochemical news in summarised snapshots so you can quickly and easily get the latest updates on whatrsquos important to you

CBNB offers readers

Fast and consistent coverage on news facts figures from the upstream and downstream petrochemicals industry

Access to over 700 news sources including technical and trade journals company literature market research reports stockbroker reports books and directories

User-friendly search functionality to find articles most relevant to you from around the globe

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ICIS Chemical Business digital magazine (ICB) Our global team of experts digests and summarises the key issues and their potential impact on the chemical markets offering a comprehensive overview of the key developments that matter most-along with informed opinion and in-depth analysis

ICB features include

In-depth insight into chemical price changes and their impact on the markets

Understand the detail behind the headline news stories

Find out about supply amp demand trends and the factors impacting them

Get the complete picture of the chemical markets ndash all in one e-magazine

Easy access via e-magazine and premium magazine website

Find out more wwwiciscomnews

ICIS News offers access to additional sources including the ICIS Chemical Business Magazine and Chemical Business News Base (CBNB)

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYPROPYLENE (PP)

SE ASIA PP PRICES MAY COME UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 AS SUPPLY LENGTHENSBy Leanne Tan

Southeast Asiarsquos polypropylene (PP) market may come under pressure in the second half of the year on account of lengthening regional supply and weak downstream demand

Spot prices have been on the rise for most of May buoyed by bullish sentiment in the Chinese market and firm upstream feedstock costs

Margins for PP makers have been lower on average compared with levels in the previous year

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refinery amp Petrochemicals is scheduled to start up its 400000 tonneyear PP production unit in the third quarter The project was initially scheduled to start up in the first quarter of 2018

While domestic demand will continue to outstrip local production the countryrsquos reliance on imports may be diminished when the new plant starts up

Converters in the country have been opting to keep inventories lean in the short term amid expectations that prices may eventually weaken when more domestic supply becomes available

ldquoBuyers donrsquot want to buy too much import cargoes now not just because prices are high but also because there will be more locally-produced materials very soonrdquo a Vietnamese trader said

In Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan is expected to start commercial production at its expanded PP facility in Pasir Gudang in June or July The plantrsquos capacity will be raised by 200000 tonnesyear from 400000 tonnesyear

Import availabilities from South Korea are expected to lengthen in the medium-to-long term with S-Oil expected to complete an olefin downstream complex (ODC) at its Onsan refinery in Ulsan which will include a

405000 tonneyear PP capacity

On the demand front weakness is likely to persist in the second half with converters and end-users likely to continue buying spot cargoes on a hand-to-mouth basis

Indonesiarsquos demand in particular has been below expectations since the start of 2018 and this is likely to continue in the second half of the year according to market players

Back to Quick Navigation | 39Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Some players said import demand for dutiable cargoes may increase in the second half of the year as this is typically when the government issues duty exemption facilities

The duty exemption facilities are issued on a yearly basis which enable converters to import some PP volumes without extra cost

In Malaysia the removal of the 6 goods and services tax (GST) so far has had no immediate impact on the PP market although there are some expectations the move could potentially boost demand in the consumer market further down the road

In Vietnam demand for PP flat yarn has entered a seasonal lull from May to early July and will not pick up until August when the summer harvest begins

PP is widely used in the manufacture of woven sacks (for rice sacks) flexible packaging carpets household appliances and automotive parts

Spot PP prices in southeast Asia have been an uptrend for most of the first half

The PP market begun the year on a bullish note with spot prices surging by almost 10 over the course of two months all-origins PP flat yarn prices peaked at $1295tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia on 2 March

Healthy demand in China helped to provide support to spot prices in southeast Asia in the first quarter with a tight global spot supply leading to further price escalations

Some suppliers pulled back from the southeast Asian spot market to capitalise on better netbacks in other countries including Japan and Pakistan leading to further curtailed spot availability in southeast Asia

The market rally started to lose steam in early March amid subdued demand and a build-up of domestic inventories in China after the Lunar New Year holidays

The bearish sentiment soon spilled over into southeast Asia with Chinese suppliers pushing some volumes into southeast Asia amid an open arbitrage window

Vietnam remains the market of choice for Chinese exporters and PP import prices in the country plummeted as the result of the lengthened spot availability

However the bearish run was short-lived and prices soon bottomed out in early April

Bullish momentum in the upstream crude and naphtha markets propelled spot prices of polymers higher

Despite lacklustre downstream demand price hikes in April and May were commonplace as producers sought higher asking prices in view of narrower margins

TIGHT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT CHINA PP MARKET DESPITE WEAK DEMANDBy Dora Xue

Tight supply would buoy up Chinarsquos polypropylene (PP) prices in the near term despite weak downstream demand

The market is expecting heavy production losses following recent unexpected outages at five domestic facilities from May and scheduled turnarounds at other plants

In the week ended on 1 June domestic prices for PP flat yarn in east China were assessed at Chinese yuan (CNY) 9075tonne after a steady increase from early April according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos import prices for the same material stood at $1245tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China largely tracking movement in the domestic market over the past two months according to ICIS data

The strong PP prices have also started to deter buyers from purchasing more spot cargoes

ldquoPP prices are too high We donrsquot want to store too much in our warehouserdquo a buyer said

Downstream demand typically goes on a lull in June and July but any downward pressure on prices will be negated by a further tightening of supply as major plants will be taken off line for maintenance

ldquoWhen the maintenance season finishes in late June [PP] prices may start to go downrdquo a trader said

Demand is considered weakest at Qingdao in the eastern Shandong province due to government-mandated production cuts and logistics restrictions ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (SCO Summit) on 9-10 June

As of 1 June the combined polyolefin inventories of Chinese petrochemical majors Sinopec and PetroChina have declined back to normal levels of 700000 tonnes from a high of 1m tonnes in early March market sources said

Import supply to China may not improve in the short term as suppliers still deem other

Back to Quick Navigation | 40Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

Back to Quick Navigation | 43Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 11: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

Thailandrsquos Indorama Ventures acquired Atlant PTA in the fourth quarter of 2017

Asian PX prices are currently above those of main feedstock naphtha by more than the breakeven level of $250tonne while PX production via feedstock isomer-xylene through the parex process and feedstock toluene through the toluene disproportionation (TDP) route have also remained economically viable

All these will mean that PX producers will maintain high operating rates at their existing plants

Spot sales have been increasing amid strong production across the region A southeast Asia-based producer is currently offering around 15000-20000 tonnesmonth of cargoes double to triple the monthly volumes it offered in the previous year

The price gap between PX and naphtha has narrowed to $315tonne in the second quarter falling from the peak of around $425tonne in end-February as the market started pricing in the expected increase in supply

In the first half of the year Asiarsquos PX production losses were estimated at 167m tonnes due to a heavy turnaround schedule

Negotiations for PX Asian Contract Price (ACP) failed for three consecutive months from April after successful monthly settlements in the first quarter ndash when producers and end-users were in agreement that supply was restricted by the turnarounds amid healthy demand in Asia

Back to Quick Navigation | 10Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian paraxylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 11Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Arbitrage economics for deep-sea materials into Asia has largely remained shut since the start of the year mainly due to a tightly supplied market in the US

However Asia does not need the supply from the US ndash which ships out 10000-15000 tonnes of supply to this region on a monthly basis ndash once the new PX units achieved smooth operations according to market participants

Toward the fourth quarter a tightening of supply may provide support to PX prices with several plants in the key China market due for turnaround

PX prices are also expected to track movement in the upstream crude and naphtha prices as well as downstream PTA futures values

AROMATICSSTYRENE MONOMER

ASIA SM UP ON LIMITED SUPPLY TIGHTNESS TO EASE IN H2By Deborah Lee

Asiarsquos styrene monomer (SM) market ndash supported in the first half of 2018 by tight supply ndash is expected to see more arbitrage cargoes from the US and Europe besides completion of turnarounds which may put pressure on prices for the rest of the year

Already April and May cargoes have been loaded from the US and have either found buyers or are likely to do so in South Korea

Furthermore Chinarsquos turnarounds will largely be over by end June with demand for imports expected to fall as domestic production returns to normal

A final anti-dumping duty (ADD) decision by China over SM imports from South Korea Taiwan and the US is also being closely watched by market participants

The China ministry of commerce is expected to announce its final results of its ADD probe in June

Prices are expected to come off in the second half of the year as a result of easing of supply and already there is a steep backwardation in the market with the JuneJuly spread at $65-85tonne

The CFR China marker started off at $1335tonne the start of the year and peaked at $156250tonne early June The SM assessment has since softened but remained above the $1400tonne level

They were largely supported in the first half because of limited arbitrage arrivals amid unplanned plant issues and scheduled turnarounds in Europe and the US while the CFR (cost amp freight) China market was hit by the ADD imposed on South Korean Taiwanese and US origin cargoes

Besides planned plant maintenance in the US and Europe unexpected issues at several plants disrupted production further

In France Totalrsquos 600000 tonneyear SM plant in Gonfreville was affected by an outage at the producerrsquos cracker in the same location early February

But the biggest impact was from CosMarrsquos unplanned shutdown caused by equipment failure due to the polymerization at its purification units

Production at its 118m tonneyear plant in Carville Louisiana resumed April 10 nearly three months after it was shut mid-January

The tight supply situation almost guaranteed that there would be no arbitrage cargoes from the US and Europe heading into Asia

Back to Quick Navigation | 12Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

But this was further secured by ADDs imposed on some of Chinarsquos key suppliers of SM as part of the Chinese authoritiesrsquo preliminary decision in February

This had greatly reduced options for the largest importer of SM cargoes in Asia

China which imported over 3m tonnes of SM in 2017 has had to turn to the Middle East southeast Asia and Japan to supplement cargoes it had received before from countries affected by ADD

Other macroeconomic factors boosted the CFR China assessment -- a stronger yuan rendered US dollar imports more competitive versus domestic cargoes for one

China also lowered VAT rates from 17 to 16 effective May 1 further bolstering interest in imported cargoes

Prices fell in end-February as some sellers offloaded cargoes due to an influx of arrivals

Concerns over end user demand emerged as the second quarter was expected to be a good demand season for SM and its derivatives but in reality buyers were slow to emerge deterred by high prices

In China in particular demand was slow to pick up after the Lunar New Year holiday because downstream producers were well stocked as operating rates were maintained during the typically low demand season in winter

This was in anticipation of rising SM prices due to the ADD probe

The additional spot cargoes in the market combined with lackluster demand pressured spot prices lower The CFR China assessment on 21 March fell to $1270tonne

As news of more turnarounds planned within China emerged domestic supply of SM was looking increasingly tight

With many plants due to be shut over April to June production was persistently lowered over the quarter and expectations of tight supply pushed the market higher again

Spot prices remained on an upswing as inventory levels slumped and prompt supply was limited

Stockpiles of SM in east China fell to a multi-year low as of 30 May at 37500 tonnes

Back to Quick Navigation | 13Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian styrene monomer (SM) markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 14Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Cargoes hitting Chinarsquos shores were not sufficient to meet the countryrsquos growing appetite for SM particularly as the Q3 manufacturing for exports season was fast approaching

Downstream producers however were struggling to pass on rising feedstock costs to their buyers

Thinning margins have led to some mulling lowering operating rates at its resin plants

Petrochemicals Analytics SolutionsOur new and enhanced petrochemical analytics and insight puts you in a stronger position so you can optimise your trades plans and strategies in order to secure a competitive advantage

ICIS is the only information provider to offer this unique combination of analytics tools as one subscription alongside pricing data and analysis

Live Supply Disruption TrackerPlant outages and maintenance for the next 12 months plus the impact of capacity changes

3 Pre-empt competition and capitalise on trades impacted by outages

3 Be aware of market shortages with a real-time view to manage risk and ensure security of stock

3 Negotiate better prices with other market players

Supply amp Demand OutlooksQuarterly global supply and demand review and outlook for key value chains and regions

3 Support your short-term strategy with upstream and downstream market sentiment and expectations for the current quarter at a regional level

3 Expand opportunities in international trade3 Understand at-a-glance the regional supply and

demand outlook across six key commodity chains

Price Drivers AnalyticsCross-commodity and cross-regional analysis of importexport parity substitution trends and feedstockdownstream spreads

3 Gain new context and negotiating tools in addition to ICIS price assessments

3 Pre-empt competition and spot opportunities with visual charts and impact commentaries

3 Reduce the time spent making manual calculations and spend more time on strategy and acting on market opportunities

4

360 view of the market l See the global market from

all anglesl Achieve better price

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Real-time information l Powered by 43000 plant

data in the ICIS Supply andDemand Database and 247global market coverage byICIS editors

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Complex analytics made simple l Real-time visualisation with

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AROMATICSTOLUENE

CHINA IMPORTS TO UNDERPIN ASIA TOLUENE MARKET IN H2 2018By Trixie Yap

Asiarsquos toluene market direction in the second half of this year will be determined by the buying activity from Chinese importers which has been the key factor influencing its prices so far in 2018

FOB (free on board) Korea prices which have been fluctuating in a wider-than-expected range for the past month closed at $760-785tonne in the week ended 1 June for June and July-loading parcels

The decreases at the close on 1 June marked the end of three weeksrsquo worth of stable-to-firm price trend

This followed weaker import demand from China for July which mainly stemmed from the ending of traders replenishing shore tank inventories at eastern ports such as Jiangsu

CFR (cost amp freight) China prices were in a sideways trend for most parts of early 2018 up to March at $690-765tonne

Prices only picked up after April and hit a peak of $835tonne CFR China after fluctuating in the $700-710tonne CFR China range for a few weeks

Unlike earlier expectations when market players were hoping for Chinese import demand to peak after the post early-March Lunar New Year period CFR China buying activity remained muted and only rose after May because of improved demand from the gasoline blenders

Blending demand received a boost because of lower gasoline production from state-owned refineries amid a spate of turnarounds in China ndash mainly in the eastern regions ndash starting end April to June

The better blending economics for toluene in early May particularly for the oil majors paved the way for demand as well

Back to Quick Navigation | 15Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Toluene-isomer xylenes spread on an ex-tank basis was wider with toluene being much more price friendly for gasoline production as compared to isomer xylene

With the 1 May implementation of a new online tax-filing system for oil and chemical products oil majors had no choice but to buy blend stocks themselves

Back to Quick Navigation | 16Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

instead of gasoline cargoes directly as the government was effectively making private gasoline blending activities unworkable as these blenders will not be able to potentially avoid tax payments via the paper filing system now

The presence of higher-than-expected inventories at east China main ports ndash stock levels hit a high of 76700 tonnes in early March ndash contributed further to the later timing of import demand Inventories only fell significantly after April (see chart above)

The only key issue hampering import demand from improving further was the

generally weak off taking activities from the downstream chemical sectors as isocynates benzoic acid benzyl chloride and other types of solvent products

The downstream demand was hampered because of low and unchanged operating rates because of stricter environmental regulations imposed by the government since second-half 2017

Looking ahead however the bleak demand situation for toluene from the chemical downstream sector could reverse soon starting August-September because of Wan Hua Chemicalrsquos new TDI plant start-up

The TDI plantsrsquo nameplate capacity is currently 300000 tonnesyear which could equate to around 160000 tonnesyear of toluene usage according to several market players

While this may not directly represent an increase in demand for CFR China import toluene cargoes it is likely to boost domestic toluene demand within north China particularly Shandong region and allow for potential arbitrage flows within the country

This in turn may support import parity of yuan-denominated ex-tank prices and allow for healthy distributor margins ndash if they consider to buy CFR China cargoes which is a key driver for majority of these import buyers

Market participants in China were quick to note also that supply increments ndash following at least three new plant start-ups this year ndash will outpace demand increments whichcould pose a problem in determining whichwill have a larger impact on import demandand prices

ldquoThe additional capacities may not be sold into the merchant market because there will still be captive usage since these producers are refineries with gasoline requirements and fulfilmentsrdquo one east China-based trader said

Ultimately it will be dependent on how the internal consumption for gasoline ndash of these new start-ups ndash will pan out leading up to the year-end

Changes in average operating rates of state-owned refineries due to turnarounds or outages will be another direction driver

Aside from China demand-supply fundamentals the other key price driver is the supply balance within Asia

Supply has been generally long between January and May owing to the stable operating plant rates and overall sufficient availability in southeast Asia a key net exporter within the region

Availability of northeast Asian cargoes was curtailed at some points in time ndash particularly in February and March ndashbecause of turnarounds

Back to Quick Navigation | 17Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 18Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

However supply has been steadily rising for cargoes loading in May and June ndash with the market seeing an additional of close to 30000 tonnes of product from South Korea alone ndash as some downstream plants had ongoing shutdown plans all the way till early July (see right)

All of these cargoes as expected are heading to China because of the opened arbitrage window for exports during the same time period

The increment in excess spot supply from South Korea ndash going forward ndash will be driven by downstream spreads for TDP operators since the benzene-toluene spreads have been narrowing consistently from March when the spreads hit a peak

The healthy spreads between toluene and xylenes (para and isomer) have been the only saving grace for the TDP market

ldquoBenzene demand-supply fundamentals are likely to continue remaining weak with increments in supply still expected from Middle East and Vietnam from June so that is going to still put pressure on TDP operators whether to run their unit with more toluene or less toluene [since they can adjust the amount of feedstock]rdquo one northeast Asian end-user said

ldquoBenzene demand-supply fundamentals are likely to continue remaining weak with increments in supply still expected from Middle East and Vietnam from June so that is going to still put pressure on TDP operators whether to run their unit with more toluene or less toluene [since they can adjust the amount of feedstock]rdquo one northeast Asian end-user said

There is also hope that supply will be curbed again in the autumn season ndash when several plants start their planned maintenances ndash to provide a temporary relief to the readily sufficient spot availability

Ultimately if Chinarsquos importing activity continues to be robust there will be no issues with them soaking up the excess supplies at any point of time

ldquoThe key issue is how much these buyers can procure and how long their buying activities can last but so far it has been very sporadic and capped to short time frames because of them being risk averserdquo one southeast Asian trader said

Back to Quick Navigation | 19Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian toluene markets

BASE OILSBASE OILS

ASIA MIDEAST BASE OILS FIRM IN H1 BUT SOME PULLBACK LIKELY IN H2By Jasmine Khoo amp Izham Ahmad

Asia base oils Group I SN150 and Group II 150N prices are expected to remain firm on persistently low supply whereas the heavy grades - Group I SN500 and Group II 500600N - could come under pressure on ample availability

Into the second half of the year base oils supply from Iran are expected to be stable with no known maintenance plans due over the following few months from June and that could add further pressure on prices amid the weak demand outlook

Only one Iranian refiner is due for a maintenance shutdown in the second half of the year possibly sometime in September according to market sources

In Group II like in Asia short supply of 150N and 500600N is expected to support prices in coming months but the Group II segment in the Middle East is a much smaller market for producers

Major Group II and III producers in Saudi Arabia Qatar Bahrain and UAE also continue to focus on their traditional markets outside of the Middle East due to stronger demand and higher margins

Brightstock remained largely stable for June in terms of pricing following deals done at parity with Mayrsquos levels but market players maintained a cautious stance towards brightstock pricing which would typically see downward pressure towards the end of the year

The winter season in parts of Asia would typically herald a period of slow cargo uptake for brightstock as transportation logistics get more challenging

As for Group III base oils northeast Asian-origin lots are expected to see support in spot prices from June as seen from healthy uptake among buyers amid short supply from regional suppliers

Similarly in the Middle East market Group I prices started the year on a firm note

Around mid-February SN500 prices traded up to $80750tonne FOB (free on board) Iran their highest levels since ICIS began tracking the data in November 2015

SN150 also traded their record highs about the same time hitting $72750tonne FOB Iran

These record highs were held until early May despite buyers at the time showing increasing resistance to the higher levels and the uncertainty that took hold of the market ahead of a deadline for the US to decide on whether it would remain in the Iran nuclear deal

On 8 May US president Donald Trump announced that the US will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal and re-impose sanctions on Tehran consequently driving up crude prices to new highs since late 2014

Iranrsquos base oils prices were largely stable in that week but market outlook has been clouded with uncertainties following the USrsquo decision to re-impose sanctions on the country

Group I SN500 prices were stable through the early half of May at $780-805tonne FOB Iran while Group I SN150 were holding at $710-745tonne FOB Iran since early-February according to ICIS data

Prices began to decline around mid-May when it became more apparent that the increased sanctions would cause at least some disruptions to business dealings with Iranian entities

Market players said they encountered difficulties in financial transactions with Iran and many financial institutions were reluctant to take on any dealings involving Iran-based businesses for fear of conflicting with the US sanctions

On the supply side market players in the UAE said there were sufficient cargoes built up over recent months and as such

there was less demand for further spot deals in Group I particularly with the threat of renewed sanctions

Mid-May also marked the start of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan which is a typically slow season for the Middle East

Certain manufacturing activities are reduced as factories observed shorter operating hours and as many workers took some vacation time as well

The Eid ul-Fitr long holidays followed the end of Ramadan in mid-June

Asiarsquos base oils market trends for certain widely-traded Group I grades snapped out of persistent uptrend in late April against a backdrop of increasingly squeezed buyersrsquo margins and waning demand

Steady gains in FOB Asia spot prices were recorded since September 2017 on the back of regional shortages as demand surpassed output

This was partly fuelled by natural disasters in the US when Hurricane Harvey disrupted between 20 and 25 of the countryrsquos refining capacity in August

The disruption to base oils production at some units led to increased appetite for deep-sea shipments from Asia to the US

In the current market SN500 prices registered the greatest drops among the ICIS assessed grades shedding slightly more than 12 of its spot pricing between 13 April and 25 May ICIS data showed

Market participants attributed the price dip to lackluster demand brought about by a supply overhang of domestically-produced SN400 in the local Chinese market

Competitive pricing of SN400 amid ample availability curtailed import appetite among China-based buyers for SN500 of Asian origin especially since some buyers were still holding on to sufficient stocks for the near term

Back to Quick Navigation | 20Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Brightstock prices also softened reflecting increasingly squeezed buyersrsquo margins following steep gains seen from 22 September 2017 to 23 March 2018 in FOB Asia export prices

Some buyers were also sitting on sufficient inventories from active procurement earlier in the year leading to waned demand

This led refiners and traders to cut offers to encourage cargo uptake for May shipment cargoes

Group II 150N and 500600N prices largely held up on the back of potential supply woes in the summer season amid scheduled shutdowns at major Asian refineries

Taiwanrsquos Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) is expected to conduct planned maintenance in July market sources said

This led market players to hold on to expectations of buoyed spot prices for Group II base oils in the near term though significant increase is not expected for certain grades such as 500600N amid ample spot availability in the region

Group III 4 and 6cst base oils largely continued their steady price uptrend reflecting short supply among key South Korean Group III suppliers

8cst base oils of northeast Asian origin amid comparatively greater availability than its lighter counterparts saw less gains in prices since the beginning of 2018

South Korean-origin Group III base oils prices were mostly buoyant despite an influx of Middle East-origin Group III base oils into the northeast Asian market since November 2017 as South Korean-origin Group III users adhered largely to using the same material due to formulation restrictions and related OEM approvals

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian base oils markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 21Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPURIFIED TEREPHTHALIC ACID (PTA)

ASIA PTA SUPPLY TO LENGTHEN IN H2 ON INDIA CHINA PLANT START-UPSBy Samuel Wong

Supply of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in Asia is expected to lengthen in the second half of 2018 as new capacities will start up in the major markets of India and China amid a slowdown in demand

Major plants would have resumed production after unplanned outages to ease the current global supply tightness that has been driving up Asian prices while demand typically weakens in the third quarter

Asian PTA prices may start to come under pressure as fresh supply will hit the markets when new major regional plants start production in the third quarter

ldquoMarket sentiment is currently pessimistic about the outlook however this can quickly change if we see a sudden uptick in downstream demandrdquo a China-based producer said

In India JBF Grouprsquos 125m tonneyear PTA unit in Mangalore is expected to start up in the third quarter although the schedule is still fluid according to several market participants

In China Fuhaichuang Petrochemical formerly known as Dragon Aromatics (Zhangzhou) is planning to resume operations at its complex in the third quarter of 2018 after a prolonged shutdown

Its petrochemical complex in Zhangzhou has a 45m tonneyear PTA plant comprisings three 15m tonneyear lines two of which have been in operation since end-2017 The company is likely to restart the third line once smooth operations at its upstream paraxylene (PX) unit at the site is achieved market players said

In Europe Indorama Ventures Portugal plans to start up in July an idled 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Sines Thailand-based Indorama Ventures Ltd acquired the

plant from Portuguese Artlant PTA in late 2017

All these factors should see the narrowing of the price gap between Chinarsquos import and domestic markets as early as July after widening steadily from March to May

As of 12 June the gap stood at $96tonne down from the peak of about $111tonne on 30 May

Asiarsquos PTA prices are currently steady at firm levels Regional end-users preferred to procure cargoes on a need-to basis and were not keen on building inventories

Future movement will depend on market conditions in the downstream polyester industry

The wide price gap in Chinarsquos import and domestic markets has been deterring Chinese buyers from tapping the international spot market for supplies since March while demand was healthy especially in the downstream polyethylene terephthalate (PET) markets

Tight global supply in the first half saw Asian producers shipping out cargoes to the Middle East as well as Europe which was hit by unplanned outages in Belgium and Poland in April

Back to Quick Navigation | 22Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

In Europe BP Chemical on 15 April declared a force majeure at its Belgium PTA unit and a second force majeure on 17 May PKN Orlen on 23 April declared a force majeure at its Wloclawek PTA unit in Poland which was subsequently lifted on 2 May with spot cargoes from the plant limited until after a planned maintenance in SeptemberOctober 2018

Within Asia the southeastern region has had PTA plant outages and had to procure cargoes from the northeast in the preceding two months

Regional supply tightened further with the unexpected shutdown of Hanwha General Chemicalrsquos 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Daesan prompting a force majeure declaration on 21 May

In the first half of 2018 strong growth in demand in the downstream polyester markets in Asia particularly China supported the rally in PTA prices amid tight supply

Downstream polyester markets were enjoying positive margins keeping demand for feedstock PTA healthy

In the key China market operating rates at polyester units were higher compared with the previous year

The countryrsquos PTA production losses in January-June 2018 on the other hand were estimated at around 134m tonnes due to planned and unplanned outages

Asiarsquos PTA producers were largely enjoying healthy margins on the back of steady demand growth in the downstream polyester markets Firmer upstream energy

and feedstock PX prices have also buoyed PTA prices

In January to May 2018 Brent crude traded at $6692-7616bbl up by about 25 year

on year while PX prices were at $938-994tonne representing a 15 increase over the same period

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian purified terephthalic acid (PTA)) markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 23Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPOLYETHYLENE TEREPHTHALATE (PET)

ASIA PET TO REMAIN FIRM IN Q3 AS TIGHT SUPPLY SUPPORT PRICESBy Hazel Goh

Asian polyethylene terephthalate (PET) market is likely to remain firm in the third quarter on the back of tight supply a trend that has supported prices so far in 2018

Recently PET tight supply is a result of production cuts in Asia and Europe that have not had a clear estimated date of resuming normal operations

China Resources Packaging had cut production at its PET lines in Changzhou by 50 following notice from the government to reduce pollution in end-May It is not known for how long the production cuts will remain in place

In Europe there had been feedstock purified terephthalic acid (PTA) supply tightness leading to recent PET production cuts and force majeure by Novapet and JBF respectively

Many buyers had been purchasing on a need-to basis expecting that firm prices are unsustainable and will come down Subsequently they did not stock up cargoes ahead of the peak summer demand season for countries in the northern hemisphere

The reality turned out different and they had to accept higher prices as production cuts kept the supply tight

PET used to track feedstock price movements closely as it had been an oversupplied market and producers typically operate on thin margins

The oversupply situation changed and tightness was first felt in the third quarter of 2017 when plant closures by JBF RAK in the UAE and Belgium and by Mossi amp Ghisolfi (MampG) in the US Mexico and Brazil following financial tightness in the two PET-producing companies

Hurricane Harvey that hit the US in the third quarter led to further production cuts in the US

Back to Quick Navigation | 24Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 1

From then on supply remained tight as the plant under JBF RAK in the UAE and the former MampG plant in the US that had been acquired by Far Eastern remained shut for extended period of time even into 2018

Market players previously had concerns about where China will export its material when final anti-dumping duties (ADD) - heard to be at the same level as thepreliminary duties of 398-530 - wereimposed on its cargoes into Japan inJanuary

Japan was the top exporting destination for Chinese cargoes before the ADD following which the exports dropped drastically

While other producers such as Taiwanese southeast Asian Indian and South Korean producers sold more volumes into Japan Chinese makers sold to other markets that were relinquished by the other producers

Table 1 shows a significant difference between 2016 and 2017 in Chinarsquos export volumes to key destinations from the January-to-March period

Ranked by volume starting with largestvolume as 1

There is an ongoing anti-dumping duty (ADD) investigation by the US on PET cargoes from Brazil Pakistan Indonesia Taiwan and South Korea

The Commerce Department issued the preliminary dumping rates for Indonesia at 1316 South Korea at 881-10141 and Taiwan at 902-1189 in May Final determinations will be issued by 8 November

Even so some producers from the countries under investigation continued to receive buying enquiries from the US amid the current tight supply situation

There will be some upcoming new capacities expected in Q3 as shown in table 2 that may bring about a more balanced supply to meet the demand

The US plant acquired by Far Eastern is estimated to restart in June-July which should also ease the supply tightness

Even with the new capacities and plant restarts market participants think it is unlikely that PET market will return to the oversupply situation seen in the previous years

Request your free sample report

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PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian PET markets

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Table 2

Our English-language report coverage includes

Styrene MEG Propylene

BTX Methanol Base Oil

BPA PE MTBE

Phenol PP Mixed AromaticsAcetone Oxo-Alcohol

Trusted industryintelligence for Chinarsquoscommodity marketsDevelopments in Chinarsquos petrochemicals industrycontinue to affect the global marketplace It istherefore vital for domestic and internationalmarket players to keep track of changes withinthe country to know where opportunities lie

ICIS has long been recognised as a reliablesource of information our locally-based expertscompile reports and analyses in English tosupport industry participants dealing with Chinamarkets or seeking to trade or invest

Pricing informationOur pricing data provide key insights into pricetrends in China to support your short-termdecision-making negotiations and analyses

bull Import and export spot and contract pricesbull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity

and upstreamdownstream marketsbull Data on inventory levels and price marginsbull Plant and production news

Petrochemicals Analytics SolutionsProviding our customers with a 360-degree view of the Chinese market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker - real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for thenext 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics - key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock anddo wnstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlooks

Available for key chemical commodities

wwwiciscomchina

Discover how we can meet your market information needs

enquiryiciscom

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESMONOETHYLENE GLYCOL (MEG)

ASIA MEG TO SEE DEMAND TAPERING LOWER SUPPLY IN EARLY H2By Eric Su

The Asian monoethylene glycol (MEG) market could see demand slowing down from the end of June while supply will be reduced from a number of plant turnarounds

Inventories are expected to decline in June after offtake rates at Chinese main ports rose sharply in the last two weeks of May because of an uptick in demand from downstream polyester buyers

Demand for MEG is also expected to remain strong in the first half of June boosted by high polyester production rates of above 85 and modestly low inventory levels

A slowdown in demand may take place in the second half of June as the traditional manufacturing peak period nears its end in July

Meanwhile supply conditions could tighten because of the plant turnarounds in northeast Asia

However supply from the Middle East will likely resume to normal levels given that there were no further delay in shipments in May

MEG prices in Asia have registered year-on-year growth rates in the months to June this year

MEG prices have mostly hovered above $900tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China Main Port (CMP) while prices were mostly below $900tonne CFR CMP in 2017

Prices have been volatile in 2018 with major price swings seen on a near monthly basis since February

MEG prices in first quarter of 2018 continued the uptrend seen in the fourth quarter of 2017 rising to $1030tonne CFR CMP in early March from $922tonne CFR

CMP in late December as the higher-than-expected growth in downstream polyester fuelled bullish market sentiment

Polyester growth in 2017 was estimated at above 10 beating an originally bearish expectation of 2-3

A price downtrend was observed in March with the MEG weekly average price losing nearly 10 of its value to $929tonne CFR CMP by end-March

The price decline coincided with a sharp influx of imported cargoes which was likely a result of over-procurement in January

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and February when prices were trending upwards

March 2018 import volumes rose to nearly 1m tonnes a record three-year high according to official China customs data

MEG prices rebounded in April rising by around 9 from end-March to $1014tonne CFR CMP by end-April ahead of the traditional peak period for the downstream polyester sector The average polyester production rate rose to above 85 during the period

MEG also achieved its to-date weekly peak of $1042tonne CFR CMP in the week ending 20 April

Supply tightness was also observed in the Chinese domestic market because of shipment delays from the Middle East and logistical issues at China main ports over the same period

The lack of availability of prompt cargoes also led to an atypical price spread between April and May delivery parcels

Normally the spread between arrived-at-port and far-term arrival cargoes is at $0-10tonne CFR CMP but this widened to $20-30tonne CFR CMP This drove concerns of sharp price adjustments in May once April deliveries were fulfilled

These concerns came true as MEG prices

began to slide in May MEG weekly prices stood at $928tonne CFR CMP in the last week of May falling from $1003tonne CFR CMP in early May

High inventory levels have also weighed on MEG prices Inventory levels were above 900000 tonnes from early May onward rising to 938000 tonnes by in late March Most market participants deemed inventory levels above 900000 tonnes to be high

The increase in inventory levels in May were largely attributed to the arrival of Middle East shipments which were previously due for arrival in April

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian MEG markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 27Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSETHYLENE

NE ASIA ETHYLENE H2 OUTLOOK HINGES ON NEW SUPPLY SM PLANTBy Yeow Pei Lin

Northeast (NE) Asiarsquos ethylene (C2) second-half 2018 outlook is uncertain as several crackers are scheduled for maintenance but such production losses could be offset by the start up of a new plant and cargoes from outside the region

More than 20 crackers in Asia are slated to undergo maintenance in 2018 with the estimated capacity losses totalling more than 185m tonnes Most of the turnarounds in the first half of the year were concentrated in Japan ndash a key exporter to China

However several more companies are to carry out turnarounds in June and the rest of the year

The impact on the regional balance will depend on the start-up progress of a new facility in South Korea and on whether the strong exports from southeast Asia and Europe in the first half of 2018 will continue

Shipments from Yeosu South Korea will start to slow down in August ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at complexes in that region

Exports will recover by December when Lotte Chemical brings on-stream an added capacity of 200000 tonnesyear at its Yeosu cracker

The facility will undergo an expansion during a turnaround from late September to October

Shipments from Ulsan another petrochemical cluster in South Korea will grow in the second half of 2018

Newcomer S-Oil is expected to begin commercial operations at its residue upgrading complex (RUC) in Onsan in the second half of June

The companyrsquos entire ethylene output of up

to around 200000 tonnesyear is intended for the merchant market as it does not have any downstream plants

Exports from southeast Asian producers will continue to be driven by the higher value from ethylene sales in the ethylene versus polyethylene (PE) trade-off

There will however be supply constraints

Four crackers in the region will undergo

maintenance and the affected producers include ExxonMobil and PTT Global Chemicals (PTTGC) that were regular exporters in the first half of 2018

Exports from Europe will likely be influenced by the performance of the PE sector

The outlook for the PE market in Europe is uncertain given the growing prospect of competitively-priced exports from the new US plants

Back to Quick Navigation | 28Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Ethylene costs in the US have been at low levels since early 2018 as production growth outpaces that for consumption

Since late 2017 about 3m tonnesyear of new ethylene capacity and about 35m tonnesyear of new PE capacity have started up in the US

The new crackers have been running well but several of the new PE plants struggled to reach full operating rates

Exports from Saudi Arabia are expected to be constrained by increased domestic consumption

Petro Rabigh announced in April that the last few plants in its Phase 2 project including a 75000 tonneyear ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) unit have started up

The companyrsquos ethylene exports could fall further in the second half of 2018 following the completion of its PE plant maintenance shutdowns earlier in the year

Chinarsquos import demand is poised for further growth when a new 260000 tonneyear styrene monomer (SM) plant starts up in the third quarter as planned

Anhui Haoyuan Chemical will be operating the unit in Fuyang Anhui on a standalone basis as its plans to build a methanol-to-olefin (MTO) plant have been put on hold amid high methanol prices

The plant will require around 78000 tonnes of ethylene annually to operate at maximum capacity

Based on the above factors it was not immediately clear if the ethylene prices in the second half will follow the volatile trend they displayed in the first five months of 2018

NE Asia spot ethylene prices were volatile from January to May as the impact of a heavy regional cracker turnaround schedule and strong Chinese demand was at times outweighed by strong exports from southeast Asia the Middle East and Europe

The market started the year at above a two and a half year high of $1415tonne CFR (cost amp freight) NE Asia in early January

Subsequent transacted prices fluctuated within a low $1200stonne to mid $1300stonne CFR NE Asia band in the five months ended 31 May

Prices in the first quarter were initially weighed down by ample supply from producers in the Middle East and Asia due to a series of PE plant shutdowns - both planned and unplanned

That was despite strong pre-Lunar New Year holiday restocking activities in China

Demand was bolstered by the start up of a 500000 tonneyear non-integrated SM plant and generally healthy downstream margins for producers outside the PE sector

End-users were also keen to build up their inventories because of the slow progress in their 2018 term contract discussions ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at facilities of key exporters in the region

In addition a major ethylene oxide (EO) maker was seeking more import cargoes following a disruption in supply from its upstream MTO unit The plant was shut twice between late November and the first half of February because of high feedstock methanol costs

The market recovered in early March in line with the start of the annual cracker turnaround season in northeast Asia where

scheduled capacity losses in 2018 will be overall higher than the previous year

That explained why the countryrsquos exports from January to April slumped by 14 year-on-year to 201274 tonnes

In late April northeast Asiarsquos spot prices fell again after a surprisingly large quantity of deep-sea spot cargoes were sold into Asia for delivery between the middle of May and the first half of June

There were at least 55000-60000 tonnes of cargoes from Europe in addition to 11000 tonnes of US supply for that delivery period Europe was in a long position because of derivative maintenance shutdowns and production problems

Continued strong exports from southeast Asia owing to downstream production issues and the weak performance of the linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) market contributed to the downbeat sentiment

The ample supply outweighed Chinarsquos robust import demand

Buying interest in China was strong for April and May arrival cargoes on the back

Back to Quick Navigation | 29Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

of healthy downstream margins for certain downstream markets such as SM EO and monoethylene glycol (MEG)

Ethylene buyers in China were also keen to book deep-sea cargoes to offset the expected regional production losses from cracker turnarounds

Prices rebounded quickly in mid-May

aided by a bullish SM market and reduced domestic supply

Some MTO operators lowered production in May as high feedstock methanol costs led to squeezed margins while a key producer in east China lowered its cracker run rates unexpectedly

Sharp increases in feedstock naphtha costs

which tracked gains on crude oil futures also helped set a floor to the earlier price declines

By early June spot ethylene prices had touched a 20-week high raising questions on whether the market will see similar price volatility in the second half of 2018

Producers will turn hawkish if the outlook for crude and naphtha markets remains upbeat

Back to Quick Navigation | 30Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSPROPYLENE

TIGHT NE ASIA PROPYLENE SUPPLY TO LIMIT H2 PRICE FLUCTUATIONSBy Joson Ng

Tight propylene (C3) supply in northeast Asia amid a heavy turnaround schedule in 2018 will continue supporting regional prices of the material into the second half

Sellers are likely to continue passing on firmer costs to buyers which are wary of October when heavy propylene production losses are expected

Buyersrsquo resistance in the key China market would keep any further increase in propylene prices in check with some downstream producers considering cutting output due to high feedstock costs

At the start of June propylene prices have weakened ending the strong general uptrend since end-March amid weakness in Chinarsquos domestic market as demand softened due to turnarounds at downstream polypropylene (PP) plants

However the downward pressure on regional prices may be temporary as overall supply in Asia is expected to be tight

In early June spot propylene prices in northeast Asia were about 9 higher from the start of 2018 according to ICIS data

The year started on a bullish note fuelled by a heavier cracker turnaround schedule compared with 2017 and higher premium levels concluded for contract cargoes

The uptrend was sustained into February due to restocking activities in various import markets in northeast Asia before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February

Before the holidays some South Korean producers were convinced the market will experience supply shortage as both GS Caltexrsquos fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity and Yeochun NCCrsquos (YNCC) cracker ndash which can produce 280000 tonnesyear of propylene ndash were due for maintenance in February through to April

But propylene prices surprisingly weakened from 9 February to end-March without demand support from Chinarsquos weak PP market which struggled through sluggish sales and high inventory after the countryrsquos week-long Lunar New Year holiday

A renewed wave of scheduled turnarounds at regional plants tightened supply and drove up propylene prices in April and May

In Taiwan Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) took its residue fluid catalytic

Back to Quick Navigation | 31Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

cracking (RFCC) unit with a 350000 tonneyear propylene capacity off stream from 1 March to mid-April while CPC Corp shut its 100000 tonneyear FCC unit on 10 April and restarted in early June

In South Korea GS Caltex also had a turnaround at its FCC unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity from 19 February to 5 April

SK Advanced shut its propane dehydrogenated (PDH) unit with 600000 tonneyear propylene capacity on 21 April to early May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian propylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 32Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

To talk to someone about price forecast reports call the numbers below or email us at salesukiciscomAsia-Pacific Europe Africa and Middle East The AmericasTel +65 6789 8828 Tel +44 20 8652 3335 Tel +1 713 525 2600 or Toll free +1 888 525 3255 (US and Canada only)

ICIS price forecast reportsSupply demand and price trends at a glance

ICIS price forecast reports provide a clear view of prices and supply and demand trends for the next 12 months Packed with vital information the report includes everything you need to assess where the market is heading and the impact or opportunity that presents for your business

To find out more or take a trial visit wwwiciscompriceforecast

Price Forecast Window

ICIS price forecasts are now available on the Dashboard channel using the Price Forecast Window which will enable users to

n Chart the price forecast against the last (rolling) twelve months of related price history

n Plot the last 12 months to view forecast progression and ICIS forecast accuracy

n Convert data into different currencies and units and download this data into Excel in order to easily enter into your own calculations

How price forecast reports can help youn Understand the marketUse ICIS price forecast reports to understand where the market is heading and identify the risks and the opportunities for your business What are the major demand developments for your product n Safeguard commercial decisionsUse market information to make better-informed business decisions relating to supply and demand Learn about changes in market capacities What factors will affect supply for you n Budgeting and planningWhether you are planning how much you will be spending in the short-to medium or even long term use the price forecast reports to help assess future prices for your product What will the price of your product be in six monthsrsquo time

Price forecast reports currently

available

Available as price forecast windows only

Polypropylene

Polyethylene

Benzene

StyrenePolystyrene

Methanol

Ethylene

Propylene

Styrene

Asia Europe US Global

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

OLEFINSBUTADIENE

ASIA BD TO FLUCTUATE IN H2 AS SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE SHIFTSBy Helen Yan

Asiarsquos butadiene (BD) spot prices for July shipments are likely to face downward pressure but any price downtrend is likely to reverse when cracker turnarounds start to kick in from September onwards

BD prices are expected to be weighed down before seeing support again in the third quarter as the supply and demand balance shifts during this period

The fourth quarter will likely see support for BD prices although the increases may be tempered by resistance from the downstream synthetic rubber (SR) makers to any significant price hikes

The busy cracker turnaround season in September-November will likely see supply tightening at the same time that demand is expected to pick up during this period

Several crackers and BD units including South Korearsquos Lotte Chemical LG Chem and Chinarsquos Shanghai Secco and Maoming Petrochemical are scheduled to shut during

the September to November time frame

In the near term BD spot prices are likely to continue to trend lower as demand wanes while supply at the same time is expected to lengthen due to an influx of deep-sea cargoes and regional cracker restarts

More than 15000 tonnes of deep-sea cargoes from EU are expected to arrive in Asia in June and July at the same time that crackers in Asia including Indiarsquos Haldia Petrochemical and Indonesiarsquos Chandra Asri resume their production following their maintenance shutdowns

On 8 June spot prices fell to $1725tonne CFR (cost amp freight) northeast (NE) Asia the second consecutive week of decline after spiralling upwards in the two months since early April

BD spot prices had increased by more than 40 since early April peaking at $1800tonne CFR NE Asia on 25 May

Strong demand from derivative acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) makers which were running their plants at optimal rates had bolstered the BD price upsurge during this period

However derivative styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) and polybutadiene rubber (PBR) producers the key consumers of BD cut their production output given the continued erosion in margins

Several major SBR and PBR producers said their margins had fallen into negative territory and retreated from the BD spot market in June

Chinese spot appetite in particular tapered off as domestic BD prices were lower compared with the US dollar-denominated import prices

In China Hangzhou Zhechen Jilin Petrochemical Zhejiang Transfar and Shen Hua Chemical were some of the SBR and PBR plants that are shut for maintenance in June and July

Several SBR and PBR plants in Taiwan and South Korea were also running at lower rates following the 40 BD price spike in the two months from early April to end-May

In South Korea major SR producer Korea Kumho Petrochemical PC was running its SBR and PBR plants at reduced rates

Back to Quick Navigation | 33Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian butadiene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 34Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Similarly Taiwanrsquos TSRC also cut the production output of its SBR and PBR plants

The outlook for the fourth quarter is expected to see a different turn of events with SBR and PBR plants resuming their production and ramping up their operating rates while supply during the last quarter is expected to tighten from the heavy cracker turnaround season

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYETHYLENE (PE)

SOUTHEAST ASIA PE MARKET FACES LONGER H2 SUPPLY WEAK DEMANDBy Felita Widjaja

Southeast Asiarsquos polyethylene (PE) market may be facing longer supply in the second half hinging on how the US-China trade spat plays out amid the regionrsquos weakening demand for imports

Global PE trade flows will be affected should China the biggest importer of spot PE cargoes in the world decide to impose retaliatory 25 tariff on US cargoes

Southeast Asia as an alternative buying region might be hard pressed to absorb additional supply from the US where massive PE capacities recently started up which were meant to cater to huge Chinese demand

Around 5m tonnes of additional US PE capacities are expected from several major projects including those in the pipeline to start up within the second half of 2018

China primarily imports PE cargoes from Asia and the Middle East while the US is its sixth leading PE supplier in 2017

ldquoEventually more substantial and regular volume of US [PE] cargoes are expected to be traded in Asia in the second half of the year as we have yet to see them in the first half of this yearrdquo said a regional trader

Any changes in trade flows would pose challenges to US suppliers in the short term as they would need to revamp their logistics and distribution channels to redirect cargoes to other markets

Suppliers from the Middle East meanwhile might take the opportunity to supply more cargoes to China and would mean fewer volumes available to the southeast Asian market

The Middle East is southeast Asiarsquos major PE supplier

Demand for PE imports in southeast Asia has been weak amid lower prices in

Back to Quick Navigation | 35Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

the domestic markets as in the case of Thailand

ldquoThai traders are not keen to import as local prices are more competitive so they do not have the margin to sell the imported cargoes in local market Only some converters who need specific cargoes continue to importrdquo said a local Thai trader

Malaysia and Indonesia with predominantly Muslim populations have seen market activity slow down since mid-May when the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan started Ramadan ends with the Eid ul-Fitr holiday on 15 June

The Indonesian government has declared a longer Eid-ul Fitr holiday this year from 11-20 June

Markets in Singapore and the Philippines will be closed for the mid-June holiday as well

With supply expected to become long some market players expect regional PE prices in July and August to ease from

June with restocking activities expected to kick in towards the end of the third quarter

In the first half of 2018 southeast Asiarsquos average prices for commodity PE were largely stable to firm owing to suppliersrsquo relatively comfortable-to-tight supply for most of the period

At the start of June high density polyethylene (HDPE) film grade prices averaged $1395tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia while linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) film were at $1210tonne CFR SE Asia and $1265tonne CFR SE Asia respectively according to ICIS data

Prices had spiked in the first quarter as suppliers were holding comfortable-to-tight inventory as several regional producers have scheduled turnarounds at their plants in March Production issues and shutdowns in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia also limited availability of imports to southeast Asia during this period

Supply for HDPE film was particularly tight as some producers from the Middle East as well as Asia switched their focus into making HDPE pipe grade amid robust demand and better netbacks

The price uptrend across most PE grades could not be sustained in the second quarter although prices remained relatively stable-to-firm

The depreciation of local currencies in southeast Asia against the US dollar in most of the second quarter was also curbing overall demand for imports A weaker currency makes US dollar-denominated imports expensive

ldquoIndonesian buyers have not been buying much cargoes as the market slowed down during Ramadan and also because of weak rupiah which led the central bank to increase interest rate to limit the depreciationrdquo said a regional producer

CHINA PE IMPORTS TO STAY STRONG AMID DOMESTIC PLANT TURNAROUNDS By Angie Li

Chinarsquos polyethylene (PE) imports are expected to remain strong for the rest of the year after posting record volumes in January to April 2018 amid scheduled turnarounds at domestic facilities

Buyers in China have been accumulating imported PE cargoes as these were priced lower compared futures prices since the start of the year

More cargoes will be available to China as new capacities in the US are expected to boost production

For the month of May the countryrsquos PE imports are projected to reach 12m tonnes higher than the monthly average in the first four months of 2018

In January to April 2018 its PE imports volumes totaled 447m tonnes up by 12 from the previous corresponding period according to industry sources

The import volumes were making up for the production losses in the domestic market due to scheduled turnarounds

On 1 June low density PE (LDPE) imports were assessed at $1155-1180tonne linear low density PE (LLDPE) stood at $1150-1170tonne while high density PE (HDPE) film products were at $1340-1400tonne according to ICIS data

The prices have increased 15-62 from end-March but the gains came in lower than market playersrsquo expectations considering the heavy production loss due to turnarounds from April

Back to Quick Navigation | 36Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

An estimated 500000 tonnes are expected to be shaved in the second quarter due to scheduled maintenance at domestic facilities according ICIS data

ldquoWe thought the hefty plant turnarounds in the second quarter should lead to a surge in PE prices but the LDPE and LLDPE prices were less than satisfactory although HDPE prices [were] highrdquo said an east China-based trader referring to both the import and domestic PE prices

Strong imports amid hedging activities bloated the total supply in China in January to April to 998m tonnes up by 8 from the previous corresponding period with supply of LDPE and LLDPE up by 14 and 8 respectively market sources said

Imports of HDPE inched up by 2 over the same period given the gradersquos comparatively higher prices compared with LLDPE and LDPE

Increased availability due to recent capacity expansions and start-ups in Asia the Middle East also fuels Chinarsquos appetite for import cargoes

In the first quarter of 2018 additional cargoes from Saudi Arabia were mostly from Sadara Chemical which started up its 750000 tonneyear swing plant and 350000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Al Jubail during late 2016 and early 2017 respectively

Cargoes of Iran origin augmented the total volume from the UAE as market players try to go around the financial sanctions on Tehran Kordestan Petrochemicalrsquos 300000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Iran came on stream in March 2017

UAErsquos Borouge has also ramped up pipe and HDPE film exports to China during the period according to a supplier in the Middle East

Meanwhile PE imports from Singapore surged 38 year on year while those from India more than doubled to 127000 tonnes according to China Customs data

The ban on waste plastics implemented in China in the year also bolstered imports of virgin PE Some waste plastics processed overseas and then re-entered the market as virgin products but these volumes were limited

Last year China has imported 194m tonnes of PE waste plastics while

volumes in 2018 will be negligible with the implemention of the ban

Chinarsquos PE production this year is expected to increase by around 7 to about 17m tonnes in 2018 with imports projected to grow by 102 to around 13m tonnes according to a source from state-owned petrochemical giant PetroChina

Domestic demand for PE on the other hand is forecast to grow by 8 this year mainly from the packaging and pipe markets

Chinarsquos ongoing campaign to switch to using gas for power generation instead of coal is expected to continue boosting demand for PE gas pipes this year

The packaging industry will also drive up PE consumption underpinned by growth in electronic commerce Chinarsquos express delivery volumes reached 137bn packages during January-April 2018 based on data from the recent China Express Industry Development Conference in May

Back to Quick Navigation | 37Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 38Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

By Jonathan Lopez

ICIS NewsThe leading news service for real-time ground breaking news and analysis on the global petrochemicals markets

The ICIS News services give you unrivalled access to the most in-depth stories impacting the petrochemicals markets influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions

Our team of global editors are reporting around the clock to bring you the latest news and analysis so that you get the full picture of market and pricing developments first providing you with invaluable foresight to take advantage of every opportunity and to stay ahead of your competitors

With ICIS News you will be the first to read

Breaking news on the chemical markets that will impact your business

News on market moves deals and announcements that will affect your organisation

Force majeures closures and developments that influence your commodity prices

Expert analysis on industry trends and hot topics ndash know whatrsquos happening and why

Searchable archive with over 14 million articles from the past 10 years

Chemical Business News Base (CBNB) is a premium resource available on ICIS News It provides you with an extensive external source of upstream and downstream petrochemical news in summarised snapshots so you can quickly and easily get the latest updates on whatrsquos important to you

CBNB offers readers

Fast and consistent coverage on news facts figures from the upstream and downstream petrochemicals industry

Access to over 700 news sources including technical and trade journals company literature market research reports stockbroker reports books and directories

User-friendly search functionality to find articles most relevant to you from around the globe

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ICB features include

In-depth insight into chemical price changes and their impact on the markets

Understand the detail behind the headline news stories

Find out about supply amp demand trends and the factors impacting them

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ICIS News offers access to additional sources including the ICIS Chemical Business Magazine and Chemical Business News Base (CBNB)

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYPROPYLENE (PP)

SE ASIA PP PRICES MAY COME UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 AS SUPPLY LENGTHENSBy Leanne Tan

Southeast Asiarsquos polypropylene (PP) market may come under pressure in the second half of the year on account of lengthening regional supply and weak downstream demand

Spot prices have been on the rise for most of May buoyed by bullish sentiment in the Chinese market and firm upstream feedstock costs

Margins for PP makers have been lower on average compared with levels in the previous year

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refinery amp Petrochemicals is scheduled to start up its 400000 tonneyear PP production unit in the third quarter The project was initially scheduled to start up in the first quarter of 2018

While domestic demand will continue to outstrip local production the countryrsquos reliance on imports may be diminished when the new plant starts up

Converters in the country have been opting to keep inventories lean in the short term amid expectations that prices may eventually weaken when more domestic supply becomes available

ldquoBuyers donrsquot want to buy too much import cargoes now not just because prices are high but also because there will be more locally-produced materials very soonrdquo a Vietnamese trader said

In Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan is expected to start commercial production at its expanded PP facility in Pasir Gudang in June or July The plantrsquos capacity will be raised by 200000 tonnesyear from 400000 tonnesyear

Import availabilities from South Korea are expected to lengthen in the medium-to-long term with S-Oil expected to complete an olefin downstream complex (ODC) at its Onsan refinery in Ulsan which will include a

405000 tonneyear PP capacity

On the demand front weakness is likely to persist in the second half with converters and end-users likely to continue buying spot cargoes on a hand-to-mouth basis

Indonesiarsquos demand in particular has been below expectations since the start of 2018 and this is likely to continue in the second half of the year according to market players

Back to Quick Navigation | 39Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Some players said import demand for dutiable cargoes may increase in the second half of the year as this is typically when the government issues duty exemption facilities

The duty exemption facilities are issued on a yearly basis which enable converters to import some PP volumes without extra cost

In Malaysia the removal of the 6 goods and services tax (GST) so far has had no immediate impact on the PP market although there are some expectations the move could potentially boost demand in the consumer market further down the road

In Vietnam demand for PP flat yarn has entered a seasonal lull from May to early July and will not pick up until August when the summer harvest begins

PP is widely used in the manufacture of woven sacks (for rice sacks) flexible packaging carpets household appliances and automotive parts

Spot PP prices in southeast Asia have been an uptrend for most of the first half

The PP market begun the year on a bullish note with spot prices surging by almost 10 over the course of two months all-origins PP flat yarn prices peaked at $1295tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia on 2 March

Healthy demand in China helped to provide support to spot prices in southeast Asia in the first quarter with a tight global spot supply leading to further price escalations

Some suppliers pulled back from the southeast Asian spot market to capitalise on better netbacks in other countries including Japan and Pakistan leading to further curtailed spot availability in southeast Asia

The market rally started to lose steam in early March amid subdued demand and a build-up of domestic inventories in China after the Lunar New Year holidays

The bearish sentiment soon spilled over into southeast Asia with Chinese suppliers pushing some volumes into southeast Asia amid an open arbitrage window

Vietnam remains the market of choice for Chinese exporters and PP import prices in the country plummeted as the result of the lengthened spot availability

However the bearish run was short-lived and prices soon bottomed out in early April

Bullish momentum in the upstream crude and naphtha markets propelled spot prices of polymers higher

Despite lacklustre downstream demand price hikes in April and May were commonplace as producers sought higher asking prices in view of narrower margins

TIGHT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT CHINA PP MARKET DESPITE WEAK DEMANDBy Dora Xue

Tight supply would buoy up Chinarsquos polypropylene (PP) prices in the near term despite weak downstream demand

The market is expecting heavy production losses following recent unexpected outages at five domestic facilities from May and scheduled turnarounds at other plants

In the week ended on 1 June domestic prices for PP flat yarn in east China were assessed at Chinese yuan (CNY) 9075tonne after a steady increase from early April according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos import prices for the same material stood at $1245tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China largely tracking movement in the domestic market over the past two months according to ICIS data

The strong PP prices have also started to deter buyers from purchasing more spot cargoes

ldquoPP prices are too high We donrsquot want to store too much in our warehouserdquo a buyer said

Downstream demand typically goes on a lull in June and July but any downward pressure on prices will be negated by a further tightening of supply as major plants will be taken off line for maintenance

ldquoWhen the maintenance season finishes in late June [PP] prices may start to go downrdquo a trader said

Demand is considered weakest at Qingdao in the eastern Shandong province due to government-mandated production cuts and logistics restrictions ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (SCO Summit) on 9-10 June

As of 1 June the combined polyolefin inventories of Chinese petrochemical majors Sinopec and PetroChina have declined back to normal levels of 700000 tonnes from a high of 1m tonnes in early March market sources said

Import supply to China may not improve in the short term as suppliers still deem other

Back to Quick Navigation | 40Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

Back to Quick Navigation | 43Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 12: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

Back to Quick Navigation | 11Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Arbitrage economics for deep-sea materials into Asia has largely remained shut since the start of the year mainly due to a tightly supplied market in the US

However Asia does not need the supply from the US ndash which ships out 10000-15000 tonnes of supply to this region on a monthly basis ndash once the new PX units achieved smooth operations according to market participants

Toward the fourth quarter a tightening of supply may provide support to PX prices with several plants in the key China market due for turnaround

PX prices are also expected to track movement in the upstream crude and naphtha prices as well as downstream PTA futures values

AROMATICSSTYRENE MONOMER

ASIA SM UP ON LIMITED SUPPLY TIGHTNESS TO EASE IN H2By Deborah Lee

Asiarsquos styrene monomer (SM) market ndash supported in the first half of 2018 by tight supply ndash is expected to see more arbitrage cargoes from the US and Europe besides completion of turnarounds which may put pressure on prices for the rest of the year

Already April and May cargoes have been loaded from the US and have either found buyers or are likely to do so in South Korea

Furthermore Chinarsquos turnarounds will largely be over by end June with demand for imports expected to fall as domestic production returns to normal

A final anti-dumping duty (ADD) decision by China over SM imports from South Korea Taiwan and the US is also being closely watched by market participants

The China ministry of commerce is expected to announce its final results of its ADD probe in June

Prices are expected to come off in the second half of the year as a result of easing of supply and already there is a steep backwardation in the market with the JuneJuly spread at $65-85tonne

The CFR China marker started off at $1335tonne the start of the year and peaked at $156250tonne early June The SM assessment has since softened but remained above the $1400tonne level

They were largely supported in the first half because of limited arbitrage arrivals amid unplanned plant issues and scheduled turnarounds in Europe and the US while the CFR (cost amp freight) China market was hit by the ADD imposed on South Korean Taiwanese and US origin cargoes

Besides planned plant maintenance in the US and Europe unexpected issues at several plants disrupted production further

In France Totalrsquos 600000 tonneyear SM plant in Gonfreville was affected by an outage at the producerrsquos cracker in the same location early February

But the biggest impact was from CosMarrsquos unplanned shutdown caused by equipment failure due to the polymerization at its purification units

Production at its 118m tonneyear plant in Carville Louisiana resumed April 10 nearly three months after it was shut mid-January

The tight supply situation almost guaranteed that there would be no arbitrage cargoes from the US and Europe heading into Asia

Back to Quick Navigation | 12Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

But this was further secured by ADDs imposed on some of Chinarsquos key suppliers of SM as part of the Chinese authoritiesrsquo preliminary decision in February

This had greatly reduced options for the largest importer of SM cargoes in Asia

China which imported over 3m tonnes of SM in 2017 has had to turn to the Middle East southeast Asia and Japan to supplement cargoes it had received before from countries affected by ADD

Other macroeconomic factors boosted the CFR China assessment -- a stronger yuan rendered US dollar imports more competitive versus domestic cargoes for one

China also lowered VAT rates from 17 to 16 effective May 1 further bolstering interest in imported cargoes

Prices fell in end-February as some sellers offloaded cargoes due to an influx of arrivals

Concerns over end user demand emerged as the second quarter was expected to be a good demand season for SM and its derivatives but in reality buyers were slow to emerge deterred by high prices

In China in particular demand was slow to pick up after the Lunar New Year holiday because downstream producers were well stocked as operating rates were maintained during the typically low demand season in winter

This was in anticipation of rising SM prices due to the ADD probe

The additional spot cargoes in the market combined with lackluster demand pressured spot prices lower The CFR China assessment on 21 March fell to $1270tonne

As news of more turnarounds planned within China emerged domestic supply of SM was looking increasingly tight

With many plants due to be shut over April to June production was persistently lowered over the quarter and expectations of tight supply pushed the market higher again

Spot prices remained on an upswing as inventory levels slumped and prompt supply was limited

Stockpiles of SM in east China fell to a multi-year low as of 30 May at 37500 tonnes

Back to Quick Navigation | 13Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian styrene monomer (SM) markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 14Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Cargoes hitting Chinarsquos shores were not sufficient to meet the countryrsquos growing appetite for SM particularly as the Q3 manufacturing for exports season was fast approaching

Downstream producers however were struggling to pass on rising feedstock costs to their buyers

Thinning margins have led to some mulling lowering operating rates at its resin plants

Petrochemicals Analytics SolutionsOur new and enhanced petrochemical analytics and insight puts you in a stronger position so you can optimise your trades plans and strategies in order to secure a competitive advantage

ICIS is the only information provider to offer this unique combination of analytics tools as one subscription alongside pricing data and analysis

Live Supply Disruption TrackerPlant outages and maintenance for the next 12 months plus the impact of capacity changes

3 Pre-empt competition and capitalise on trades impacted by outages

3 Be aware of market shortages with a real-time view to manage risk and ensure security of stock

3 Negotiate better prices with other market players

Supply amp Demand OutlooksQuarterly global supply and demand review and outlook for key value chains and regions

3 Support your short-term strategy with upstream and downstream market sentiment and expectations for the current quarter at a regional level

3 Expand opportunities in international trade3 Understand at-a-glance the regional supply and

demand outlook across six key commodity chains

Price Drivers AnalyticsCross-commodity and cross-regional analysis of importexport parity substitution trends and feedstockdownstream spreads

3 Gain new context and negotiating tools in addition to ICIS price assessments

3 Pre-empt competition and spot opportunities with visual charts and impact commentaries

3 Reduce the time spent making manual calculations and spend more time on strategy and acting on market opportunities

4

360 view of the market l See the global market from

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Real-time information l Powered by 43000 plant

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AROMATICSTOLUENE

CHINA IMPORTS TO UNDERPIN ASIA TOLUENE MARKET IN H2 2018By Trixie Yap

Asiarsquos toluene market direction in the second half of this year will be determined by the buying activity from Chinese importers which has been the key factor influencing its prices so far in 2018

FOB (free on board) Korea prices which have been fluctuating in a wider-than-expected range for the past month closed at $760-785tonne in the week ended 1 June for June and July-loading parcels

The decreases at the close on 1 June marked the end of three weeksrsquo worth of stable-to-firm price trend

This followed weaker import demand from China for July which mainly stemmed from the ending of traders replenishing shore tank inventories at eastern ports such as Jiangsu

CFR (cost amp freight) China prices were in a sideways trend for most parts of early 2018 up to March at $690-765tonne

Prices only picked up after April and hit a peak of $835tonne CFR China after fluctuating in the $700-710tonne CFR China range for a few weeks

Unlike earlier expectations when market players were hoping for Chinese import demand to peak after the post early-March Lunar New Year period CFR China buying activity remained muted and only rose after May because of improved demand from the gasoline blenders

Blending demand received a boost because of lower gasoline production from state-owned refineries amid a spate of turnarounds in China ndash mainly in the eastern regions ndash starting end April to June

The better blending economics for toluene in early May particularly for the oil majors paved the way for demand as well

Back to Quick Navigation | 15Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Toluene-isomer xylenes spread on an ex-tank basis was wider with toluene being much more price friendly for gasoline production as compared to isomer xylene

With the 1 May implementation of a new online tax-filing system for oil and chemical products oil majors had no choice but to buy blend stocks themselves

Back to Quick Navigation | 16Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

instead of gasoline cargoes directly as the government was effectively making private gasoline blending activities unworkable as these blenders will not be able to potentially avoid tax payments via the paper filing system now

The presence of higher-than-expected inventories at east China main ports ndash stock levels hit a high of 76700 tonnes in early March ndash contributed further to the later timing of import demand Inventories only fell significantly after April (see chart above)

The only key issue hampering import demand from improving further was the

generally weak off taking activities from the downstream chemical sectors as isocynates benzoic acid benzyl chloride and other types of solvent products

The downstream demand was hampered because of low and unchanged operating rates because of stricter environmental regulations imposed by the government since second-half 2017

Looking ahead however the bleak demand situation for toluene from the chemical downstream sector could reverse soon starting August-September because of Wan Hua Chemicalrsquos new TDI plant start-up

The TDI plantsrsquo nameplate capacity is currently 300000 tonnesyear which could equate to around 160000 tonnesyear of toluene usage according to several market players

While this may not directly represent an increase in demand for CFR China import toluene cargoes it is likely to boost domestic toluene demand within north China particularly Shandong region and allow for potential arbitrage flows within the country

This in turn may support import parity of yuan-denominated ex-tank prices and allow for healthy distributor margins ndash if they consider to buy CFR China cargoes which is a key driver for majority of these import buyers

Market participants in China were quick to note also that supply increments ndash following at least three new plant start-ups this year ndash will outpace demand increments whichcould pose a problem in determining whichwill have a larger impact on import demandand prices

ldquoThe additional capacities may not be sold into the merchant market because there will still be captive usage since these producers are refineries with gasoline requirements and fulfilmentsrdquo one east China-based trader said

Ultimately it will be dependent on how the internal consumption for gasoline ndash of these new start-ups ndash will pan out leading up to the year-end

Changes in average operating rates of state-owned refineries due to turnarounds or outages will be another direction driver

Aside from China demand-supply fundamentals the other key price driver is the supply balance within Asia

Supply has been generally long between January and May owing to the stable operating plant rates and overall sufficient availability in southeast Asia a key net exporter within the region

Availability of northeast Asian cargoes was curtailed at some points in time ndash particularly in February and March ndashbecause of turnarounds

Back to Quick Navigation | 17Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 18Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

However supply has been steadily rising for cargoes loading in May and June ndash with the market seeing an additional of close to 30000 tonnes of product from South Korea alone ndash as some downstream plants had ongoing shutdown plans all the way till early July (see right)

All of these cargoes as expected are heading to China because of the opened arbitrage window for exports during the same time period

The increment in excess spot supply from South Korea ndash going forward ndash will be driven by downstream spreads for TDP operators since the benzene-toluene spreads have been narrowing consistently from March when the spreads hit a peak

The healthy spreads between toluene and xylenes (para and isomer) have been the only saving grace for the TDP market

ldquoBenzene demand-supply fundamentals are likely to continue remaining weak with increments in supply still expected from Middle East and Vietnam from June so that is going to still put pressure on TDP operators whether to run their unit with more toluene or less toluene [since they can adjust the amount of feedstock]rdquo one northeast Asian end-user said

ldquoBenzene demand-supply fundamentals are likely to continue remaining weak with increments in supply still expected from Middle East and Vietnam from June so that is going to still put pressure on TDP operators whether to run their unit with more toluene or less toluene [since they can adjust the amount of feedstock]rdquo one northeast Asian end-user said

There is also hope that supply will be curbed again in the autumn season ndash when several plants start their planned maintenances ndash to provide a temporary relief to the readily sufficient spot availability

Ultimately if Chinarsquos importing activity continues to be robust there will be no issues with them soaking up the excess supplies at any point of time

ldquoThe key issue is how much these buyers can procure and how long their buying activities can last but so far it has been very sporadic and capped to short time frames because of them being risk averserdquo one southeast Asian trader said

Back to Quick Navigation | 19Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

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PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian toluene markets

BASE OILSBASE OILS

ASIA MIDEAST BASE OILS FIRM IN H1 BUT SOME PULLBACK LIKELY IN H2By Jasmine Khoo amp Izham Ahmad

Asia base oils Group I SN150 and Group II 150N prices are expected to remain firm on persistently low supply whereas the heavy grades - Group I SN500 and Group II 500600N - could come under pressure on ample availability

Into the second half of the year base oils supply from Iran are expected to be stable with no known maintenance plans due over the following few months from June and that could add further pressure on prices amid the weak demand outlook

Only one Iranian refiner is due for a maintenance shutdown in the second half of the year possibly sometime in September according to market sources

In Group II like in Asia short supply of 150N and 500600N is expected to support prices in coming months but the Group II segment in the Middle East is a much smaller market for producers

Major Group II and III producers in Saudi Arabia Qatar Bahrain and UAE also continue to focus on their traditional markets outside of the Middle East due to stronger demand and higher margins

Brightstock remained largely stable for June in terms of pricing following deals done at parity with Mayrsquos levels but market players maintained a cautious stance towards brightstock pricing which would typically see downward pressure towards the end of the year

The winter season in parts of Asia would typically herald a period of slow cargo uptake for brightstock as transportation logistics get more challenging

As for Group III base oils northeast Asian-origin lots are expected to see support in spot prices from June as seen from healthy uptake among buyers amid short supply from regional suppliers

Similarly in the Middle East market Group I prices started the year on a firm note

Around mid-February SN500 prices traded up to $80750tonne FOB (free on board) Iran their highest levels since ICIS began tracking the data in November 2015

SN150 also traded their record highs about the same time hitting $72750tonne FOB Iran

These record highs were held until early May despite buyers at the time showing increasing resistance to the higher levels and the uncertainty that took hold of the market ahead of a deadline for the US to decide on whether it would remain in the Iran nuclear deal

On 8 May US president Donald Trump announced that the US will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal and re-impose sanctions on Tehran consequently driving up crude prices to new highs since late 2014

Iranrsquos base oils prices were largely stable in that week but market outlook has been clouded with uncertainties following the USrsquo decision to re-impose sanctions on the country

Group I SN500 prices were stable through the early half of May at $780-805tonne FOB Iran while Group I SN150 were holding at $710-745tonne FOB Iran since early-February according to ICIS data

Prices began to decline around mid-May when it became more apparent that the increased sanctions would cause at least some disruptions to business dealings with Iranian entities

Market players said they encountered difficulties in financial transactions with Iran and many financial institutions were reluctant to take on any dealings involving Iran-based businesses for fear of conflicting with the US sanctions

On the supply side market players in the UAE said there were sufficient cargoes built up over recent months and as such

there was less demand for further spot deals in Group I particularly with the threat of renewed sanctions

Mid-May also marked the start of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan which is a typically slow season for the Middle East

Certain manufacturing activities are reduced as factories observed shorter operating hours and as many workers took some vacation time as well

The Eid ul-Fitr long holidays followed the end of Ramadan in mid-June

Asiarsquos base oils market trends for certain widely-traded Group I grades snapped out of persistent uptrend in late April against a backdrop of increasingly squeezed buyersrsquo margins and waning demand

Steady gains in FOB Asia spot prices were recorded since September 2017 on the back of regional shortages as demand surpassed output

This was partly fuelled by natural disasters in the US when Hurricane Harvey disrupted between 20 and 25 of the countryrsquos refining capacity in August

The disruption to base oils production at some units led to increased appetite for deep-sea shipments from Asia to the US

In the current market SN500 prices registered the greatest drops among the ICIS assessed grades shedding slightly more than 12 of its spot pricing between 13 April and 25 May ICIS data showed

Market participants attributed the price dip to lackluster demand brought about by a supply overhang of domestically-produced SN400 in the local Chinese market

Competitive pricing of SN400 amid ample availability curtailed import appetite among China-based buyers for SN500 of Asian origin especially since some buyers were still holding on to sufficient stocks for the near term

Back to Quick Navigation | 20Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Brightstock prices also softened reflecting increasingly squeezed buyersrsquo margins following steep gains seen from 22 September 2017 to 23 March 2018 in FOB Asia export prices

Some buyers were also sitting on sufficient inventories from active procurement earlier in the year leading to waned demand

This led refiners and traders to cut offers to encourage cargo uptake for May shipment cargoes

Group II 150N and 500600N prices largely held up on the back of potential supply woes in the summer season amid scheduled shutdowns at major Asian refineries

Taiwanrsquos Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) is expected to conduct planned maintenance in July market sources said

This led market players to hold on to expectations of buoyed spot prices for Group II base oils in the near term though significant increase is not expected for certain grades such as 500600N amid ample spot availability in the region

Group III 4 and 6cst base oils largely continued their steady price uptrend reflecting short supply among key South Korean Group III suppliers

8cst base oils of northeast Asian origin amid comparatively greater availability than its lighter counterparts saw less gains in prices since the beginning of 2018

South Korean-origin Group III base oils prices were mostly buoyant despite an influx of Middle East-origin Group III base oils into the northeast Asian market since November 2017 as South Korean-origin Group III users adhered largely to using the same material due to formulation restrictions and related OEM approvals

Request your free sample report

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PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian base oils markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 21Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPURIFIED TEREPHTHALIC ACID (PTA)

ASIA PTA SUPPLY TO LENGTHEN IN H2 ON INDIA CHINA PLANT START-UPSBy Samuel Wong

Supply of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in Asia is expected to lengthen in the second half of 2018 as new capacities will start up in the major markets of India and China amid a slowdown in demand

Major plants would have resumed production after unplanned outages to ease the current global supply tightness that has been driving up Asian prices while demand typically weakens in the third quarter

Asian PTA prices may start to come under pressure as fresh supply will hit the markets when new major regional plants start production in the third quarter

ldquoMarket sentiment is currently pessimistic about the outlook however this can quickly change if we see a sudden uptick in downstream demandrdquo a China-based producer said

In India JBF Grouprsquos 125m tonneyear PTA unit in Mangalore is expected to start up in the third quarter although the schedule is still fluid according to several market participants

In China Fuhaichuang Petrochemical formerly known as Dragon Aromatics (Zhangzhou) is planning to resume operations at its complex in the third quarter of 2018 after a prolonged shutdown

Its petrochemical complex in Zhangzhou has a 45m tonneyear PTA plant comprisings three 15m tonneyear lines two of which have been in operation since end-2017 The company is likely to restart the third line once smooth operations at its upstream paraxylene (PX) unit at the site is achieved market players said

In Europe Indorama Ventures Portugal plans to start up in July an idled 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Sines Thailand-based Indorama Ventures Ltd acquired the

plant from Portuguese Artlant PTA in late 2017

All these factors should see the narrowing of the price gap between Chinarsquos import and domestic markets as early as July after widening steadily from March to May

As of 12 June the gap stood at $96tonne down from the peak of about $111tonne on 30 May

Asiarsquos PTA prices are currently steady at firm levels Regional end-users preferred to procure cargoes on a need-to basis and were not keen on building inventories

Future movement will depend on market conditions in the downstream polyester industry

The wide price gap in Chinarsquos import and domestic markets has been deterring Chinese buyers from tapping the international spot market for supplies since March while demand was healthy especially in the downstream polyethylene terephthalate (PET) markets

Tight global supply in the first half saw Asian producers shipping out cargoes to the Middle East as well as Europe which was hit by unplanned outages in Belgium and Poland in April

Back to Quick Navigation | 22Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

In Europe BP Chemical on 15 April declared a force majeure at its Belgium PTA unit and a second force majeure on 17 May PKN Orlen on 23 April declared a force majeure at its Wloclawek PTA unit in Poland which was subsequently lifted on 2 May with spot cargoes from the plant limited until after a planned maintenance in SeptemberOctober 2018

Within Asia the southeastern region has had PTA plant outages and had to procure cargoes from the northeast in the preceding two months

Regional supply tightened further with the unexpected shutdown of Hanwha General Chemicalrsquos 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Daesan prompting a force majeure declaration on 21 May

In the first half of 2018 strong growth in demand in the downstream polyester markets in Asia particularly China supported the rally in PTA prices amid tight supply

Downstream polyester markets were enjoying positive margins keeping demand for feedstock PTA healthy

In the key China market operating rates at polyester units were higher compared with the previous year

The countryrsquos PTA production losses in January-June 2018 on the other hand were estimated at around 134m tonnes due to planned and unplanned outages

Asiarsquos PTA producers were largely enjoying healthy margins on the back of steady demand growth in the downstream polyester markets Firmer upstream energy

and feedstock PX prices have also buoyed PTA prices

In January to May 2018 Brent crude traded at $6692-7616bbl up by about 25 year

on year while PX prices were at $938-994tonne representing a 15 increase over the same period

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian purified terephthalic acid (PTA)) markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 23Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPOLYETHYLENE TEREPHTHALATE (PET)

ASIA PET TO REMAIN FIRM IN Q3 AS TIGHT SUPPLY SUPPORT PRICESBy Hazel Goh

Asian polyethylene terephthalate (PET) market is likely to remain firm in the third quarter on the back of tight supply a trend that has supported prices so far in 2018

Recently PET tight supply is a result of production cuts in Asia and Europe that have not had a clear estimated date of resuming normal operations

China Resources Packaging had cut production at its PET lines in Changzhou by 50 following notice from the government to reduce pollution in end-May It is not known for how long the production cuts will remain in place

In Europe there had been feedstock purified terephthalic acid (PTA) supply tightness leading to recent PET production cuts and force majeure by Novapet and JBF respectively

Many buyers had been purchasing on a need-to basis expecting that firm prices are unsustainable and will come down Subsequently they did not stock up cargoes ahead of the peak summer demand season for countries in the northern hemisphere

The reality turned out different and they had to accept higher prices as production cuts kept the supply tight

PET used to track feedstock price movements closely as it had been an oversupplied market and producers typically operate on thin margins

The oversupply situation changed and tightness was first felt in the third quarter of 2017 when plant closures by JBF RAK in the UAE and Belgium and by Mossi amp Ghisolfi (MampG) in the US Mexico and Brazil following financial tightness in the two PET-producing companies

Hurricane Harvey that hit the US in the third quarter led to further production cuts in the US

Back to Quick Navigation | 24Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 1

From then on supply remained tight as the plant under JBF RAK in the UAE and the former MampG plant in the US that had been acquired by Far Eastern remained shut for extended period of time even into 2018

Market players previously had concerns about where China will export its material when final anti-dumping duties (ADD) - heard to be at the same level as thepreliminary duties of 398-530 - wereimposed on its cargoes into Japan inJanuary

Japan was the top exporting destination for Chinese cargoes before the ADD following which the exports dropped drastically

While other producers such as Taiwanese southeast Asian Indian and South Korean producers sold more volumes into Japan Chinese makers sold to other markets that were relinquished by the other producers

Table 1 shows a significant difference between 2016 and 2017 in Chinarsquos export volumes to key destinations from the January-to-March period

Ranked by volume starting with largestvolume as 1

There is an ongoing anti-dumping duty (ADD) investigation by the US on PET cargoes from Brazil Pakistan Indonesia Taiwan and South Korea

The Commerce Department issued the preliminary dumping rates for Indonesia at 1316 South Korea at 881-10141 and Taiwan at 902-1189 in May Final determinations will be issued by 8 November

Even so some producers from the countries under investigation continued to receive buying enquiries from the US amid the current tight supply situation

There will be some upcoming new capacities expected in Q3 as shown in table 2 that may bring about a more balanced supply to meet the demand

The US plant acquired by Far Eastern is estimated to restart in June-July which should also ease the supply tightness

Even with the new capacities and plant restarts market participants think it is unlikely that PET market will return to the oversupply situation seen in the previous years

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian PET markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 25Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 2

Our English-language report coverage includes

Styrene MEG Propylene

BTX Methanol Base Oil

BPA PE MTBE

Phenol PP Mixed AromaticsAcetone Oxo-Alcohol

Trusted industryintelligence for Chinarsquoscommodity marketsDevelopments in Chinarsquos petrochemicals industrycontinue to affect the global marketplace It istherefore vital for domestic and internationalmarket players to keep track of changes withinthe country to know where opportunities lie

ICIS has long been recognised as a reliablesource of information our locally-based expertscompile reports and analyses in English tosupport industry participants dealing with Chinamarkets or seeking to trade or invest

Pricing informationOur pricing data provide key insights into pricetrends in China to support your short-termdecision-making negotiations and analyses

bull Import and export spot and contract pricesbull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity

and upstreamdownstream marketsbull Data on inventory levels and price marginsbull Plant and production news

Petrochemicals Analytics SolutionsProviding our customers with a 360-degree view of the Chinese market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker - real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for thenext 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics - key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock anddo wnstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlooks

Available for key chemical commodities

wwwiciscomchina

Discover how we can meet your market information needs

enquiryiciscom

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESMONOETHYLENE GLYCOL (MEG)

ASIA MEG TO SEE DEMAND TAPERING LOWER SUPPLY IN EARLY H2By Eric Su

The Asian monoethylene glycol (MEG) market could see demand slowing down from the end of June while supply will be reduced from a number of plant turnarounds

Inventories are expected to decline in June after offtake rates at Chinese main ports rose sharply in the last two weeks of May because of an uptick in demand from downstream polyester buyers

Demand for MEG is also expected to remain strong in the first half of June boosted by high polyester production rates of above 85 and modestly low inventory levels

A slowdown in demand may take place in the second half of June as the traditional manufacturing peak period nears its end in July

Meanwhile supply conditions could tighten because of the plant turnarounds in northeast Asia

However supply from the Middle East will likely resume to normal levels given that there were no further delay in shipments in May

MEG prices in Asia have registered year-on-year growth rates in the months to June this year

MEG prices have mostly hovered above $900tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China Main Port (CMP) while prices were mostly below $900tonne CFR CMP in 2017

Prices have been volatile in 2018 with major price swings seen on a near monthly basis since February

MEG prices in first quarter of 2018 continued the uptrend seen in the fourth quarter of 2017 rising to $1030tonne CFR CMP in early March from $922tonne CFR

CMP in late December as the higher-than-expected growth in downstream polyester fuelled bullish market sentiment

Polyester growth in 2017 was estimated at above 10 beating an originally bearish expectation of 2-3

A price downtrend was observed in March with the MEG weekly average price losing nearly 10 of its value to $929tonne CFR CMP by end-March

The price decline coincided with a sharp influx of imported cargoes which was likely a result of over-procurement in January

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and February when prices were trending upwards

March 2018 import volumes rose to nearly 1m tonnes a record three-year high according to official China customs data

MEG prices rebounded in April rising by around 9 from end-March to $1014tonne CFR CMP by end-April ahead of the traditional peak period for the downstream polyester sector The average polyester production rate rose to above 85 during the period

MEG also achieved its to-date weekly peak of $1042tonne CFR CMP in the week ending 20 April

Supply tightness was also observed in the Chinese domestic market because of shipment delays from the Middle East and logistical issues at China main ports over the same period

The lack of availability of prompt cargoes also led to an atypical price spread between April and May delivery parcels

Normally the spread between arrived-at-port and far-term arrival cargoes is at $0-10tonne CFR CMP but this widened to $20-30tonne CFR CMP This drove concerns of sharp price adjustments in May once April deliveries were fulfilled

These concerns came true as MEG prices

began to slide in May MEG weekly prices stood at $928tonne CFR CMP in the last week of May falling from $1003tonne CFR CMP in early May

High inventory levels have also weighed on MEG prices Inventory levels were above 900000 tonnes from early May onward rising to 938000 tonnes by in late March Most market participants deemed inventory levels above 900000 tonnes to be high

The increase in inventory levels in May were largely attributed to the arrival of Middle East shipments which were previously due for arrival in April

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian MEG markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 27Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSETHYLENE

NE ASIA ETHYLENE H2 OUTLOOK HINGES ON NEW SUPPLY SM PLANTBy Yeow Pei Lin

Northeast (NE) Asiarsquos ethylene (C2) second-half 2018 outlook is uncertain as several crackers are scheduled for maintenance but such production losses could be offset by the start up of a new plant and cargoes from outside the region

More than 20 crackers in Asia are slated to undergo maintenance in 2018 with the estimated capacity losses totalling more than 185m tonnes Most of the turnarounds in the first half of the year were concentrated in Japan ndash a key exporter to China

However several more companies are to carry out turnarounds in June and the rest of the year

The impact on the regional balance will depend on the start-up progress of a new facility in South Korea and on whether the strong exports from southeast Asia and Europe in the first half of 2018 will continue

Shipments from Yeosu South Korea will start to slow down in August ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at complexes in that region

Exports will recover by December when Lotte Chemical brings on-stream an added capacity of 200000 tonnesyear at its Yeosu cracker

The facility will undergo an expansion during a turnaround from late September to October

Shipments from Ulsan another petrochemical cluster in South Korea will grow in the second half of 2018

Newcomer S-Oil is expected to begin commercial operations at its residue upgrading complex (RUC) in Onsan in the second half of June

The companyrsquos entire ethylene output of up

to around 200000 tonnesyear is intended for the merchant market as it does not have any downstream plants

Exports from southeast Asian producers will continue to be driven by the higher value from ethylene sales in the ethylene versus polyethylene (PE) trade-off

There will however be supply constraints

Four crackers in the region will undergo

maintenance and the affected producers include ExxonMobil and PTT Global Chemicals (PTTGC) that were regular exporters in the first half of 2018

Exports from Europe will likely be influenced by the performance of the PE sector

The outlook for the PE market in Europe is uncertain given the growing prospect of competitively-priced exports from the new US plants

Back to Quick Navigation | 28Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Ethylene costs in the US have been at low levels since early 2018 as production growth outpaces that for consumption

Since late 2017 about 3m tonnesyear of new ethylene capacity and about 35m tonnesyear of new PE capacity have started up in the US

The new crackers have been running well but several of the new PE plants struggled to reach full operating rates

Exports from Saudi Arabia are expected to be constrained by increased domestic consumption

Petro Rabigh announced in April that the last few plants in its Phase 2 project including a 75000 tonneyear ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) unit have started up

The companyrsquos ethylene exports could fall further in the second half of 2018 following the completion of its PE plant maintenance shutdowns earlier in the year

Chinarsquos import demand is poised for further growth when a new 260000 tonneyear styrene monomer (SM) plant starts up in the third quarter as planned

Anhui Haoyuan Chemical will be operating the unit in Fuyang Anhui on a standalone basis as its plans to build a methanol-to-olefin (MTO) plant have been put on hold amid high methanol prices

The plant will require around 78000 tonnes of ethylene annually to operate at maximum capacity

Based on the above factors it was not immediately clear if the ethylene prices in the second half will follow the volatile trend they displayed in the first five months of 2018

NE Asia spot ethylene prices were volatile from January to May as the impact of a heavy regional cracker turnaround schedule and strong Chinese demand was at times outweighed by strong exports from southeast Asia the Middle East and Europe

The market started the year at above a two and a half year high of $1415tonne CFR (cost amp freight) NE Asia in early January

Subsequent transacted prices fluctuated within a low $1200stonne to mid $1300stonne CFR NE Asia band in the five months ended 31 May

Prices in the first quarter were initially weighed down by ample supply from producers in the Middle East and Asia due to a series of PE plant shutdowns - both planned and unplanned

That was despite strong pre-Lunar New Year holiday restocking activities in China

Demand was bolstered by the start up of a 500000 tonneyear non-integrated SM plant and generally healthy downstream margins for producers outside the PE sector

End-users were also keen to build up their inventories because of the slow progress in their 2018 term contract discussions ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at facilities of key exporters in the region

In addition a major ethylene oxide (EO) maker was seeking more import cargoes following a disruption in supply from its upstream MTO unit The plant was shut twice between late November and the first half of February because of high feedstock methanol costs

The market recovered in early March in line with the start of the annual cracker turnaround season in northeast Asia where

scheduled capacity losses in 2018 will be overall higher than the previous year

That explained why the countryrsquos exports from January to April slumped by 14 year-on-year to 201274 tonnes

In late April northeast Asiarsquos spot prices fell again after a surprisingly large quantity of deep-sea spot cargoes were sold into Asia for delivery between the middle of May and the first half of June

There were at least 55000-60000 tonnes of cargoes from Europe in addition to 11000 tonnes of US supply for that delivery period Europe was in a long position because of derivative maintenance shutdowns and production problems

Continued strong exports from southeast Asia owing to downstream production issues and the weak performance of the linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) market contributed to the downbeat sentiment

The ample supply outweighed Chinarsquos robust import demand

Buying interest in China was strong for April and May arrival cargoes on the back

Back to Quick Navigation | 29Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

of healthy downstream margins for certain downstream markets such as SM EO and monoethylene glycol (MEG)

Ethylene buyers in China were also keen to book deep-sea cargoes to offset the expected regional production losses from cracker turnarounds

Prices rebounded quickly in mid-May

aided by a bullish SM market and reduced domestic supply

Some MTO operators lowered production in May as high feedstock methanol costs led to squeezed margins while a key producer in east China lowered its cracker run rates unexpectedly

Sharp increases in feedstock naphtha costs

which tracked gains on crude oil futures also helped set a floor to the earlier price declines

By early June spot ethylene prices had touched a 20-week high raising questions on whether the market will see similar price volatility in the second half of 2018

Producers will turn hawkish if the outlook for crude and naphtha markets remains upbeat

Back to Quick Navigation | 30Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSPROPYLENE

TIGHT NE ASIA PROPYLENE SUPPLY TO LIMIT H2 PRICE FLUCTUATIONSBy Joson Ng

Tight propylene (C3) supply in northeast Asia amid a heavy turnaround schedule in 2018 will continue supporting regional prices of the material into the second half

Sellers are likely to continue passing on firmer costs to buyers which are wary of October when heavy propylene production losses are expected

Buyersrsquo resistance in the key China market would keep any further increase in propylene prices in check with some downstream producers considering cutting output due to high feedstock costs

At the start of June propylene prices have weakened ending the strong general uptrend since end-March amid weakness in Chinarsquos domestic market as demand softened due to turnarounds at downstream polypropylene (PP) plants

However the downward pressure on regional prices may be temporary as overall supply in Asia is expected to be tight

In early June spot propylene prices in northeast Asia were about 9 higher from the start of 2018 according to ICIS data

The year started on a bullish note fuelled by a heavier cracker turnaround schedule compared with 2017 and higher premium levels concluded for contract cargoes

The uptrend was sustained into February due to restocking activities in various import markets in northeast Asia before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February

Before the holidays some South Korean producers were convinced the market will experience supply shortage as both GS Caltexrsquos fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity and Yeochun NCCrsquos (YNCC) cracker ndash which can produce 280000 tonnesyear of propylene ndash were due for maintenance in February through to April

But propylene prices surprisingly weakened from 9 February to end-March without demand support from Chinarsquos weak PP market which struggled through sluggish sales and high inventory after the countryrsquos week-long Lunar New Year holiday

A renewed wave of scheduled turnarounds at regional plants tightened supply and drove up propylene prices in April and May

In Taiwan Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) took its residue fluid catalytic

Back to Quick Navigation | 31Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

cracking (RFCC) unit with a 350000 tonneyear propylene capacity off stream from 1 March to mid-April while CPC Corp shut its 100000 tonneyear FCC unit on 10 April and restarted in early June

In South Korea GS Caltex also had a turnaround at its FCC unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity from 19 February to 5 April

SK Advanced shut its propane dehydrogenated (PDH) unit with 600000 tonneyear propylene capacity on 21 April to early May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian propylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 32Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

To talk to someone about price forecast reports call the numbers below or email us at salesukiciscomAsia-Pacific Europe Africa and Middle East The AmericasTel +65 6789 8828 Tel +44 20 8652 3335 Tel +1 713 525 2600 or Toll free +1 888 525 3255 (US and Canada only)

ICIS price forecast reportsSupply demand and price trends at a glance

ICIS price forecast reports provide a clear view of prices and supply and demand trends for the next 12 months Packed with vital information the report includes everything you need to assess where the market is heading and the impact or opportunity that presents for your business

To find out more or take a trial visit wwwiciscompriceforecast

Price Forecast Window

ICIS price forecasts are now available on the Dashboard channel using the Price Forecast Window which will enable users to

n Chart the price forecast against the last (rolling) twelve months of related price history

n Plot the last 12 months to view forecast progression and ICIS forecast accuracy

n Convert data into different currencies and units and download this data into Excel in order to easily enter into your own calculations

How price forecast reports can help youn Understand the marketUse ICIS price forecast reports to understand where the market is heading and identify the risks and the opportunities for your business What are the major demand developments for your product n Safeguard commercial decisionsUse market information to make better-informed business decisions relating to supply and demand Learn about changes in market capacities What factors will affect supply for you n Budgeting and planningWhether you are planning how much you will be spending in the short-to medium or even long term use the price forecast reports to help assess future prices for your product What will the price of your product be in six monthsrsquo time

Price forecast reports currently

available

Available as price forecast windows only

Polypropylene

Polyethylene

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StyrenePolystyrene

Methanol

Ethylene

Propylene

Styrene

Asia Europe US Global

3

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3

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3

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3

3

3

3

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3

3

3

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3

3

OLEFINSBUTADIENE

ASIA BD TO FLUCTUATE IN H2 AS SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE SHIFTSBy Helen Yan

Asiarsquos butadiene (BD) spot prices for July shipments are likely to face downward pressure but any price downtrend is likely to reverse when cracker turnarounds start to kick in from September onwards

BD prices are expected to be weighed down before seeing support again in the third quarter as the supply and demand balance shifts during this period

The fourth quarter will likely see support for BD prices although the increases may be tempered by resistance from the downstream synthetic rubber (SR) makers to any significant price hikes

The busy cracker turnaround season in September-November will likely see supply tightening at the same time that demand is expected to pick up during this period

Several crackers and BD units including South Korearsquos Lotte Chemical LG Chem and Chinarsquos Shanghai Secco and Maoming Petrochemical are scheduled to shut during

the September to November time frame

In the near term BD spot prices are likely to continue to trend lower as demand wanes while supply at the same time is expected to lengthen due to an influx of deep-sea cargoes and regional cracker restarts

More than 15000 tonnes of deep-sea cargoes from EU are expected to arrive in Asia in June and July at the same time that crackers in Asia including Indiarsquos Haldia Petrochemical and Indonesiarsquos Chandra Asri resume their production following their maintenance shutdowns

On 8 June spot prices fell to $1725tonne CFR (cost amp freight) northeast (NE) Asia the second consecutive week of decline after spiralling upwards in the two months since early April

BD spot prices had increased by more than 40 since early April peaking at $1800tonne CFR NE Asia on 25 May

Strong demand from derivative acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) makers which were running their plants at optimal rates had bolstered the BD price upsurge during this period

However derivative styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) and polybutadiene rubber (PBR) producers the key consumers of BD cut their production output given the continued erosion in margins

Several major SBR and PBR producers said their margins had fallen into negative territory and retreated from the BD spot market in June

Chinese spot appetite in particular tapered off as domestic BD prices were lower compared with the US dollar-denominated import prices

In China Hangzhou Zhechen Jilin Petrochemical Zhejiang Transfar and Shen Hua Chemical were some of the SBR and PBR plants that are shut for maintenance in June and July

Several SBR and PBR plants in Taiwan and South Korea were also running at lower rates following the 40 BD price spike in the two months from early April to end-May

In South Korea major SR producer Korea Kumho Petrochemical PC was running its SBR and PBR plants at reduced rates

Back to Quick Navigation | 33Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian butadiene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 34Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Similarly Taiwanrsquos TSRC also cut the production output of its SBR and PBR plants

The outlook for the fourth quarter is expected to see a different turn of events with SBR and PBR plants resuming their production and ramping up their operating rates while supply during the last quarter is expected to tighten from the heavy cracker turnaround season

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYETHYLENE (PE)

SOUTHEAST ASIA PE MARKET FACES LONGER H2 SUPPLY WEAK DEMANDBy Felita Widjaja

Southeast Asiarsquos polyethylene (PE) market may be facing longer supply in the second half hinging on how the US-China trade spat plays out amid the regionrsquos weakening demand for imports

Global PE trade flows will be affected should China the biggest importer of spot PE cargoes in the world decide to impose retaliatory 25 tariff on US cargoes

Southeast Asia as an alternative buying region might be hard pressed to absorb additional supply from the US where massive PE capacities recently started up which were meant to cater to huge Chinese demand

Around 5m tonnes of additional US PE capacities are expected from several major projects including those in the pipeline to start up within the second half of 2018

China primarily imports PE cargoes from Asia and the Middle East while the US is its sixth leading PE supplier in 2017

ldquoEventually more substantial and regular volume of US [PE] cargoes are expected to be traded in Asia in the second half of the year as we have yet to see them in the first half of this yearrdquo said a regional trader

Any changes in trade flows would pose challenges to US suppliers in the short term as they would need to revamp their logistics and distribution channels to redirect cargoes to other markets

Suppliers from the Middle East meanwhile might take the opportunity to supply more cargoes to China and would mean fewer volumes available to the southeast Asian market

The Middle East is southeast Asiarsquos major PE supplier

Demand for PE imports in southeast Asia has been weak amid lower prices in

Back to Quick Navigation | 35Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

the domestic markets as in the case of Thailand

ldquoThai traders are not keen to import as local prices are more competitive so they do not have the margin to sell the imported cargoes in local market Only some converters who need specific cargoes continue to importrdquo said a local Thai trader

Malaysia and Indonesia with predominantly Muslim populations have seen market activity slow down since mid-May when the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan started Ramadan ends with the Eid ul-Fitr holiday on 15 June

The Indonesian government has declared a longer Eid-ul Fitr holiday this year from 11-20 June

Markets in Singapore and the Philippines will be closed for the mid-June holiday as well

With supply expected to become long some market players expect regional PE prices in July and August to ease from

June with restocking activities expected to kick in towards the end of the third quarter

In the first half of 2018 southeast Asiarsquos average prices for commodity PE were largely stable to firm owing to suppliersrsquo relatively comfortable-to-tight supply for most of the period

At the start of June high density polyethylene (HDPE) film grade prices averaged $1395tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia while linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) film were at $1210tonne CFR SE Asia and $1265tonne CFR SE Asia respectively according to ICIS data

Prices had spiked in the first quarter as suppliers were holding comfortable-to-tight inventory as several regional producers have scheduled turnarounds at their plants in March Production issues and shutdowns in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia also limited availability of imports to southeast Asia during this period

Supply for HDPE film was particularly tight as some producers from the Middle East as well as Asia switched their focus into making HDPE pipe grade amid robust demand and better netbacks

The price uptrend across most PE grades could not be sustained in the second quarter although prices remained relatively stable-to-firm

The depreciation of local currencies in southeast Asia against the US dollar in most of the second quarter was also curbing overall demand for imports A weaker currency makes US dollar-denominated imports expensive

ldquoIndonesian buyers have not been buying much cargoes as the market slowed down during Ramadan and also because of weak rupiah which led the central bank to increase interest rate to limit the depreciationrdquo said a regional producer

CHINA PE IMPORTS TO STAY STRONG AMID DOMESTIC PLANT TURNAROUNDS By Angie Li

Chinarsquos polyethylene (PE) imports are expected to remain strong for the rest of the year after posting record volumes in January to April 2018 amid scheduled turnarounds at domestic facilities

Buyers in China have been accumulating imported PE cargoes as these were priced lower compared futures prices since the start of the year

More cargoes will be available to China as new capacities in the US are expected to boost production

For the month of May the countryrsquos PE imports are projected to reach 12m tonnes higher than the monthly average in the first four months of 2018

In January to April 2018 its PE imports volumes totaled 447m tonnes up by 12 from the previous corresponding period according to industry sources

The import volumes were making up for the production losses in the domestic market due to scheduled turnarounds

On 1 June low density PE (LDPE) imports were assessed at $1155-1180tonne linear low density PE (LLDPE) stood at $1150-1170tonne while high density PE (HDPE) film products were at $1340-1400tonne according to ICIS data

The prices have increased 15-62 from end-March but the gains came in lower than market playersrsquo expectations considering the heavy production loss due to turnarounds from April

Back to Quick Navigation | 36Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

An estimated 500000 tonnes are expected to be shaved in the second quarter due to scheduled maintenance at domestic facilities according ICIS data

ldquoWe thought the hefty plant turnarounds in the second quarter should lead to a surge in PE prices but the LDPE and LLDPE prices were less than satisfactory although HDPE prices [were] highrdquo said an east China-based trader referring to both the import and domestic PE prices

Strong imports amid hedging activities bloated the total supply in China in January to April to 998m tonnes up by 8 from the previous corresponding period with supply of LDPE and LLDPE up by 14 and 8 respectively market sources said

Imports of HDPE inched up by 2 over the same period given the gradersquos comparatively higher prices compared with LLDPE and LDPE

Increased availability due to recent capacity expansions and start-ups in Asia the Middle East also fuels Chinarsquos appetite for import cargoes

In the first quarter of 2018 additional cargoes from Saudi Arabia were mostly from Sadara Chemical which started up its 750000 tonneyear swing plant and 350000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Al Jubail during late 2016 and early 2017 respectively

Cargoes of Iran origin augmented the total volume from the UAE as market players try to go around the financial sanctions on Tehran Kordestan Petrochemicalrsquos 300000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Iran came on stream in March 2017

UAErsquos Borouge has also ramped up pipe and HDPE film exports to China during the period according to a supplier in the Middle East

Meanwhile PE imports from Singapore surged 38 year on year while those from India more than doubled to 127000 tonnes according to China Customs data

The ban on waste plastics implemented in China in the year also bolstered imports of virgin PE Some waste plastics processed overseas and then re-entered the market as virgin products but these volumes were limited

Last year China has imported 194m tonnes of PE waste plastics while

volumes in 2018 will be negligible with the implemention of the ban

Chinarsquos PE production this year is expected to increase by around 7 to about 17m tonnes in 2018 with imports projected to grow by 102 to around 13m tonnes according to a source from state-owned petrochemical giant PetroChina

Domestic demand for PE on the other hand is forecast to grow by 8 this year mainly from the packaging and pipe markets

Chinarsquos ongoing campaign to switch to using gas for power generation instead of coal is expected to continue boosting demand for PE gas pipes this year

The packaging industry will also drive up PE consumption underpinned by growth in electronic commerce Chinarsquos express delivery volumes reached 137bn packages during January-April 2018 based on data from the recent China Express Industry Development Conference in May

Back to Quick Navigation | 37Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 38Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

By Jonathan Lopez

ICIS NewsThe leading news service for real-time ground breaking news and analysis on the global petrochemicals markets

The ICIS News services give you unrivalled access to the most in-depth stories impacting the petrochemicals markets influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions

Our team of global editors are reporting around the clock to bring you the latest news and analysis so that you get the full picture of market and pricing developments first providing you with invaluable foresight to take advantage of every opportunity and to stay ahead of your competitors

With ICIS News you will be the first to read

Breaking news on the chemical markets that will impact your business

News on market moves deals and announcements that will affect your organisation

Force majeures closures and developments that influence your commodity prices

Expert analysis on industry trends and hot topics ndash know whatrsquos happening and why

Searchable archive with over 14 million articles from the past 10 years

Chemical Business News Base (CBNB) is a premium resource available on ICIS News It provides you with an extensive external source of upstream and downstream petrochemical news in summarised snapshots so you can quickly and easily get the latest updates on whatrsquos important to you

CBNB offers readers

Fast and consistent coverage on news facts figures from the upstream and downstream petrochemicals industry

Access to over 700 news sources including technical and trade journals company literature market research reports stockbroker reports books and directories

User-friendly search functionality to find articles most relevant to you from around the globe

Quick and easy-to-read summarised snapshots of articles with option to access full articles from the original source

ICIS Chemical Business digital magazine (ICB) Our global team of experts digests and summarises the key issues and their potential impact on the chemical markets offering a comprehensive overview of the key developments that matter most-along with informed opinion and in-depth analysis

ICB features include

In-depth insight into chemical price changes and their impact on the markets

Understand the detail behind the headline news stories

Find out about supply amp demand trends and the factors impacting them

Get the complete picture of the chemical markets ndash all in one e-magazine

Easy access via e-magazine and premium magazine website

Find out more wwwiciscomnews

ICIS News offers access to additional sources including the ICIS Chemical Business Magazine and Chemical Business News Base (CBNB)

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYPROPYLENE (PP)

SE ASIA PP PRICES MAY COME UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 AS SUPPLY LENGTHENSBy Leanne Tan

Southeast Asiarsquos polypropylene (PP) market may come under pressure in the second half of the year on account of lengthening regional supply and weak downstream demand

Spot prices have been on the rise for most of May buoyed by bullish sentiment in the Chinese market and firm upstream feedstock costs

Margins for PP makers have been lower on average compared with levels in the previous year

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refinery amp Petrochemicals is scheduled to start up its 400000 tonneyear PP production unit in the third quarter The project was initially scheduled to start up in the first quarter of 2018

While domestic demand will continue to outstrip local production the countryrsquos reliance on imports may be diminished when the new plant starts up

Converters in the country have been opting to keep inventories lean in the short term amid expectations that prices may eventually weaken when more domestic supply becomes available

ldquoBuyers donrsquot want to buy too much import cargoes now not just because prices are high but also because there will be more locally-produced materials very soonrdquo a Vietnamese trader said

In Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan is expected to start commercial production at its expanded PP facility in Pasir Gudang in June or July The plantrsquos capacity will be raised by 200000 tonnesyear from 400000 tonnesyear

Import availabilities from South Korea are expected to lengthen in the medium-to-long term with S-Oil expected to complete an olefin downstream complex (ODC) at its Onsan refinery in Ulsan which will include a

405000 tonneyear PP capacity

On the demand front weakness is likely to persist in the second half with converters and end-users likely to continue buying spot cargoes on a hand-to-mouth basis

Indonesiarsquos demand in particular has been below expectations since the start of 2018 and this is likely to continue in the second half of the year according to market players

Back to Quick Navigation | 39Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Some players said import demand for dutiable cargoes may increase in the second half of the year as this is typically when the government issues duty exemption facilities

The duty exemption facilities are issued on a yearly basis which enable converters to import some PP volumes without extra cost

In Malaysia the removal of the 6 goods and services tax (GST) so far has had no immediate impact on the PP market although there are some expectations the move could potentially boost demand in the consumer market further down the road

In Vietnam demand for PP flat yarn has entered a seasonal lull from May to early July and will not pick up until August when the summer harvest begins

PP is widely used in the manufacture of woven sacks (for rice sacks) flexible packaging carpets household appliances and automotive parts

Spot PP prices in southeast Asia have been an uptrend for most of the first half

The PP market begun the year on a bullish note with spot prices surging by almost 10 over the course of two months all-origins PP flat yarn prices peaked at $1295tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia on 2 March

Healthy demand in China helped to provide support to spot prices in southeast Asia in the first quarter with a tight global spot supply leading to further price escalations

Some suppliers pulled back from the southeast Asian spot market to capitalise on better netbacks in other countries including Japan and Pakistan leading to further curtailed spot availability in southeast Asia

The market rally started to lose steam in early March amid subdued demand and a build-up of domestic inventories in China after the Lunar New Year holidays

The bearish sentiment soon spilled over into southeast Asia with Chinese suppliers pushing some volumes into southeast Asia amid an open arbitrage window

Vietnam remains the market of choice for Chinese exporters and PP import prices in the country plummeted as the result of the lengthened spot availability

However the bearish run was short-lived and prices soon bottomed out in early April

Bullish momentum in the upstream crude and naphtha markets propelled spot prices of polymers higher

Despite lacklustre downstream demand price hikes in April and May were commonplace as producers sought higher asking prices in view of narrower margins

TIGHT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT CHINA PP MARKET DESPITE WEAK DEMANDBy Dora Xue

Tight supply would buoy up Chinarsquos polypropylene (PP) prices in the near term despite weak downstream demand

The market is expecting heavy production losses following recent unexpected outages at five domestic facilities from May and scheduled turnarounds at other plants

In the week ended on 1 June domestic prices for PP flat yarn in east China were assessed at Chinese yuan (CNY) 9075tonne after a steady increase from early April according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos import prices for the same material stood at $1245tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China largely tracking movement in the domestic market over the past two months according to ICIS data

The strong PP prices have also started to deter buyers from purchasing more spot cargoes

ldquoPP prices are too high We donrsquot want to store too much in our warehouserdquo a buyer said

Downstream demand typically goes on a lull in June and July but any downward pressure on prices will be negated by a further tightening of supply as major plants will be taken off line for maintenance

ldquoWhen the maintenance season finishes in late June [PP] prices may start to go downrdquo a trader said

Demand is considered weakest at Qingdao in the eastern Shandong province due to government-mandated production cuts and logistics restrictions ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (SCO Summit) on 9-10 June

As of 1 June the combined polyolefin inventories of Chinese petrochemical majors Sinopec and PetroChina have declined back to normal levels of 700000 tonnes from a high of 1m tonnes in early March market sources said

Import supply to China may not improve in the short term as suppliers still deem other

Back to Quick Navigation | 40Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

Back to Quick Navigation | 43Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 13: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

AROMATICSSTYRENE MONOMER

ASIA SM UP ON LIMITED SUPPLY TIGHTNESS TO EASE IN H2By Deborah Lee

Asiarsquos styrene monomer (SM) market ndash supported in the first half of 2018 by tight supply ndash is expected to see more arbitrage cargoes from the US and Europe besides completion of turnarounds which may put pressure on prices for the rest of the year

Already April and May cargoes have been loaded from the US and have either found buyers or are likely to do so in South Korea

Furthermore Chinarsquos turnarounds will largely be over by end June with demand for imports expected to fall as domestic production returns to normal

A final anti-dumping duty (ADD) decision by China over SM imports from South Korea Taiwan and the US is also being closely watched by market participants

The China ministry of commerce is expected to announce its final results of its ADD probe in June

Prices are expected to come off in the second half of the year as a result of easing of supply and already there is a steep backwardation in the market with the JuneJuly spread at $65-85tonne

The CFR China marker started off at $1335tonne the start of the year and peaked at $156250tonne early June The SM assessment has since softened but remained above the $1400tonne level

They were largely supported in the first half because of limited arbitrage arrivals amid unplanned plant issues and scheduled turnarounds in Europe and the US while the CFR (cost amp freight) China market was hit by the ADD imposed on South Korean Taiwanese and US origin cargoes

Besides planned plant maintenance in the US and Europe unexpected issues at several plants disrupted production further

In France Totalrsquos 600000 tonneyear SM plant in Gonfreville was affected by an outage at the producerrsquos cracker in the same location early February

But the biggest impact was from CosMarrsquos unplanned shutdown caused by equipment failure due to the polymerization at its purification units

Production at its 118m tonneyear plant in Carville Louisiana resumed April 10 nearly three months after it was shut mid-January

The tight supply situation almost guaranteed that there would be no arbitrage cargoes from the US and Europe heading into Asia

Back to Quick Navigation | 12Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

But this was further secured by ADDs imposed on some of Chinarsquos key suppliers of SM as part of the Chinese authoritiesrsquo preliminary decision in February

This had greatly reduced options for the largest importer of SM cargoes in Asia

China which imported over 3m tonnes of SM in 2017 has had to turn to the Middle East southeast Asia and Japan to supplement cargoes it had received before from countries affected by ADD

Other macroeconomic factors boosted the CFR China assessment -- a stronger yuan rendered US dollar imports more competitive versus domestic cargoes for one

China also lowered VAT rates from 17 to 16 effective May 1 further bolstering interest in imported cargoes

Prices fell in end-February as some sellers offloaded cargoes due to an influx of arrivals

Concerns over end user demand emerged as the second quarter was expected to be a good demand season for SM and its derivatives but in reality buyers were slow to emerge deterred by high prices

In China in particular demand was slow to pick up after the Lunar New Year holiday because downstream producers were well stocked as operating rates were maintained during the typically low demand season in winter

This was in anticipation of rising SM prices due to the ADD probe

The additional spot cargoes in the market combined with lackluster demand pressured spot prices lower The CFR China assessment on 21 March fell to $1270tonne

As news of more turnarounds planned within China emerged domestic supply of SM was looking increasingly tight

With many plants due to be shut over April to June production was persistently lowered over the quarter and expectations of tight supply pushed the market higher again

Spot prices remained on an upswing as inventory levels slumped and prompt supply was limited

Stockpiles of SM in east China fell to a multi-year low as of 30 May at 37500 tonnes

Back to Quick Navigation | 13Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian styrene monomer (SM) markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 14Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Cargoes hitting Chinarsquos shores were not sufficient to meet the countryrsquos growing appetite for SM particularly as the Q3 manufacturing for exports season was fast approaching

Downstream producers however were struggling to pass on rising feedstock costs to their buyers

Thinning margins have led to some mulling lowering operating rates at its resin plants

Petrochemicals Analytics SolutionsOur new and enhanced petrochemical analytics and insight puts you in a stronger position so you can optimise your trades plans and strategies in order to secure a competitive advantage

ICIS is the only information provider to offer this unique combination of analytics tools as one subscription alongside pricing data and analysis

Live Supply Disruption TrackerPlant outages and maintenance for the next 12 months plus the impact of capacity changes

3 Pre-empt competition and capitalise on trades impacted by outages

3 Be aware of market shortages with a real-time view to manage risk and ensure security of stock

3 Negotiate better prices with other market players

Supply amp Demand OutlooksQuarterly global supply and demand review and outlook for key value chains and regions

3 Support your short-term strategy with upstream and downstream market sentiment and expectations for the current quarter at a regional level

3 Expand opportunities in international trade3 Understand at-a-glance the regional supply and

demand outlook across six key commodity chains

Price Drivers AnalyticsCross-commodity and cross-regional analysis of importexport parity substitution trends and feedstockdownstream spreads

3 Gain new context and negotiating tools in addition to ICIS price assessments

3 Pre-empt competition and spot opportunities with visual charts and impact commentaries

3 Reduce the time spent making manual calculations and spend more time on strategy and acting on market opportunities

4

360 view of the market l See the global market from

all anglesl Achieve better price

flexibilityl Enrich strategy plans with

validated quality datasets

Real-time information l Powered by 43000 plant

data in the ICIS Supply andDemand Database and 247global market coverage byICIS editors

l Information updated inreal time in line with ICISproduction news

Complex analytics made simple l Real-time visualisation with

impact analysisl Interactive customisable

view with advanced filteringl Supplement in-house

analytics

NEW

Request a demo

AROMATICSTOLUENE

CHINA IMPORTS TO UNDERPIN ASIA TOLUENE MARKET IN H2 2018By Trixie Yap

Asiarsquos toluene market direction in the second half of this year will be determined by the buying activity from Chinese importers which has been the key factor influencing its prices so far in 2018

FOB (free on board) Korea prices which have been fluctuating in a wider-than-expected range for the past month closed at $760-785tonne in the week ended 1 June for June and July-loading parcels

The decreases at the close on 1 June marked the end of three weeksrsquo worth of stable-to-firm price trend

This followed weaker import demand from China for July which mainly stemmed from the ending of traders replenishing shore tank inventories at eastern ports such as Jiangsu

CFR (cost amp freight) China prices were in a sideways trend for most parts of early 2018 up to March at $690-765tonne

Prices only picked up after April and hit a peak of $835tonne CFR China after fluctuating in the $700-710tonne CFR China range for a few weeks

Unlike earlier expectations when market players were hoping for Chinese import demand to peak after the post early-March Lunar New Year period CFR China buying activity remained muted and only rose after May because of improved demand from the gasoline blenders

Blending demand received a boost because of lower gasoline production from state-owned refineries amid a spate of turnarounds in China ndash mainly in the eastern regions ndash starting end April to June

The better blending economics for toluene in early May particularly for the oil majors paved the way for demand as well

Back to Quick Navigation | 15Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Toluene-isomer xylenes spread on an ex-tank basis was wider with toluene being much more price friendly for gasoline production as compared to isomer xylene

With the 1 May implementation of a new online tax-filing system for oil and chemical products oil majors had no choice but to buy blend stocks themselves

Back to Quick Navigation | 16Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

instead of gasoline cargoes directly as the government was effectively making private gasoline blending activities unworkable as these blenders will not be able to potentially avoid tax payments via the paper filing system now

The presence of higher-than-expected inventories at east China main ports ndash stock levels hit a high of 76700 tonnes in early March ndash contributed further to the later timing of import demand Inventories only fell significantly after April (see chart above)

The only key issue hampering import demand from improving further was the

generally weak off taking activities from the downstream chemical sectors as isocynates benzoic acid benzyl chloride and other types of solvent products

The downstream demand was hampered because of low and unchanged operating rates because of stricter environmental regulations imposed by the government since second-half 2017

Looking ahead however the bleak demand situation for toluene from the chemical downstream sector could reverse soon starting August-September because of Wan Hua Chemicalrsquos new TDI plant start-up

The TDI plantsrsquo nameplate capacity is currently 300000 tonnesyear which could equate to around 160000 tonnesyear of toluene usage according to several market players

While this may not directly represent an increase in demand for CFR China import toluene cargoes it is likely to boost domestic toluene demand within north China particularly Shandong region and allow for potential arbitrage flows within the country

This in turn may support import parity of yuan-denominated ex-tank prices and allow for healthy distributor margins ndash if they consider to buy CFR China cargoes which is a key driver for majority of these import buyers

Market participants in China were quick to note also that supply increments ndash following at least three new plant start-ups this year ndash will outpace demand increments whichcould pose a problem in determining whichwill have a larger impact on import demandand prices

ldquoThe additional capacities may not be sold into the merchant market because there will still be captive usage since these producers are refineries with gasoline requirements and fulfilmentsrdquo one east China-based trader said

Ultimately it will be dependent on how the internal consumption for gasoline ndash of these new start-ups ndash will pan out leading up to the year-end

Changes in average operating rates of state-owned refineries due to turnarounds or outages will be another direction driver

Aside from China demand-supply fundamentals the other key price driver is the supply balance within Asia

Supply has been generally long between January and May owing to the stable operating plant rates and overall sufficient availability in southeast Asia a key net exporter within the region

Availability of northeast Asian cargoes was curtailed at some points in time ndash particularly in February and March ndashbecause of turnarounds

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Back to Quick Navigation | 18Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

However supply has been steadily rising for cargoes loading in May and June ndash with the market seeing an additional of close to 30000 tonnes of product from South Korea alone ndash as some downstream plants had ongoing shutdown plans all the way till early July (see right)

All of these cargoes as expected are heading to China because of the opened arbitrage window for exports during the same time period

The increment in excess spot supply from South Korea ndash going forward ndash will be driven by downstream spreads for TDP operators since the benzene-toluene spreads have been narrowing consistently from March when the spreads hit a peak

The healthy spreads between toluene and xylenes (para and isomer) have been the only saving grace for the TDP market

ldquoBenzene demand-supply fundamentals are likely to continue remaining weak with increments in supply still expected from Middle East and Vietnam from June so that is going to still put pressure on TDP operators whether to run their unit with more toluene or less toluene [since they can adjust the amount of feedstock]rdquo one northeast Asian end-user said

ldquoBenzene demand-supply fundamentals are likely to continue remaining weak with increments in supply still expected from Middle East and Vietnam from June so that is going to still put pressure on TDP operators whether to run their unit with more toluene or less toluene [since they can adjust the amount of feedstock]rdquo one northeast Asian end-user said

There is also hope that supply will be curbed again in the autumn season ndash when several plants start their planned maintenances ndash to provide a temporary relief to the readily sufficient spot availability

Ultimately if Chinarsquos importing activity continues to be robust there will be no issues with them soaking up the excess supplies at any point of time

ldquoThe key issue is how much these buyers can procure and how long their buying activities can last but so far it has been very sporadic and capped to short time frames because of them being risk averserdquo one southeast Asian trader said

Back to Quick Navigation | 19Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

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bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian toluene markets

BASE OILSBASE OILS

ASIA MIDEAST BASE OILS FIRM IN H1 BUT SOME PULLBACK LIKELY IN H2By Jasmine Khoo amp Izham Ahmad

Asia base oils Group I SN150 and Group II 150N prices are expected to remain firm on persistently low supply whereas the heavy grades - Group I SN500 and Group II 500600N - could come under pressure on ample availability

Into the second half of the year base oils supply from Iran are expected to be stable with no known maintenance plans due over the following few months from June and that could add further pressure on prices amid the weak demand outlook

Only one Iranian refiner is due for a maintenance shutdown in the second half of the year possibly sometime in September according to market sources

In Group II like in Asia short supply of 150N and 500600N is expected to support prices in coming months but the Group II segment in the Middle East is a much smaller market for producers

Major Group II and III producers in Saudi Arabia Qatar Bahrain and UAE also continue to focus on their traditional markets outside of the Middle East due to stronger demand and higher margins

Brightstock remained largely stable for June in terms of pricing following deals done at parity with Mayrsquos levels but market players maintained a cautious stance towards brightstock pricing which would typically see downward pressure towards the end of the year

The winter season in parts of Asia would typically herald a period of slow cargo uptake for brightstock as transportation logistics get more challenging

As for Group III base oils northeast Asian-origin lots are expected to see support in spot prices from June as seen from healthy uptake among buyers amid short supply from regional suppliers

Similarly in the Middle East market Group I prices started the year on a firm note

Around mid-February SN500 prices traded up to $80750tonne FOB (free on board) Iran their highest levels since ICIS began tracking the data in November 2015

SN150 also traded their record highs about the same time hitting $72750tonne FOB Iran

These record highs were held until early May despite buyers at the time showing increasing resistance to the higher levels and the uncertainty that took hold of the market ahead of a deadline for the US to decide on whether it would remain in the Iran nuclear deal

On 8 May US president Donald Trump announced that the US will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal and re-impose sanctions on Tehran consequently driving up crude prices to new highs since late 2014

Iranrsquos base oils prices were largely stable in that week but market outlook has been clouded with uncertainties following the USrsquo decision to re-impose sanctions on the country

Group I SN500 prices were stable through the early half of May at $780-805tonne FOB Iran while Group I SN150 were holding at $710-745tonne FOB Iran since early-February according to ICIS data

Prices began to decline around mid-May when it became more apparent that the increased sanctions would cause at least some disruptions to business dealings with Iranian entities

Market players said they encountered difficulties in financial transactions with Iran and many financial institutions were reluctant to take on any dealings involving Iran-based businesses for fear of conflicting with the US sanctions

On the supply side market players in the UAE said there were sufficient cargoes built up over recent months and as such

there was less demand for further spot deals in Group I particularly with the threat of renewed sanctions

Mid-May also marked the start of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan which is a typically slow season for the Middle East

Certain manufacturing activities are reduced as factories observed shorter operating hours and as many workers took some vacation time as well

The Eid ul-Fitr long holidays followed the end of Ramadan in mid-June

Asiarsquos base oils market trends for certain widely-traded Group I grades snapped out of persistent uptrend in late April against a backdrop of increasingly squeezed buyersrsquo margins and waning demand

Steady gains in FOB Asia spot prices were recorded since September 2017 on the back of regional shortages as demand surpassed output

This was partly fuelled by natural disasters in the US when Hurricane Harvey disrupted between 20 and 25 of the countryrsquos refining capacity in August

The disruption to base oils production at some units led to increased appetite for deep-sea shipments from Asia to the US

In the current market SN500 prices registered the greatest drops among the ICIS assessed grades shedding slightly more than 12 of its spot pricing between 13 April and 25 May ICIS data showed

Market participants attributed the price dip to lackluster demand brought about by a supply overhang of domestically-produced SN400 in the local Chinese market

Competitive pricing of SN400 amid ample availability curtailed import appetite among China-based buyers for SN500 of Asian origin especially since some buyers were still holding on to sufficient stocks for the near term

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Brightstock prices also softened reflecting increasingly squeezed buyersrsquo margins following steep gains seen from 22 September 2017 to 23 March 2018 in FOB Asia export prices

Some buyers were also sitting on sufficient inventories from active procurement earlier in the year leading to waned demand

This led refiners and traders to cut offers to encourage cargo uptake for May shipment cargoes

Group II 150N and 500600N prices largely held up on the back of potential supply woes in the summer season amid scheduled shutdowns at major Asian refineries

Taiwanrsquos Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) is expected to conduct planned maintenance in July market sources said

This led market players to hold on to expectations of buoyed spot prices for Group II base oils in the near term though significant increase is not expected for certain grades such as 500600N amid ample spot availability in the region

Group III 4 and 6cst base oils largely continued their steady price uptrend reflecting short supply among key South Korean Group III suppliers

8cst base oils of northeast Asian origin amid comparatively greater availability than its lighter counterparts saw less gains in prices since the beginning of 2018

South Korean-origin Group III base oils prices were mostly buoyant despite an influx of Middle East-origin Group III base oils into the northeast Asian market since November 2017 as South Korean-origin Group III users adhered largely to using the same material due to formulation restrictions and related OEM approvals

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PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian base oils markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 21Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPURIFIED TEREPHTHALIC ACID (PTA)

ASIA PTA SUPPLY TO LENGTHEN IN H2 ON INDIA CHINA PLANT START-UPSBy Samuel Wong

Supply of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in Asia is expected to lengthen in the second half of 2018 as new capacities will start up in the major markets of India and China amid a slowdown in demand

Major plants would have resumed production after unplanned outages to ease the current global supply tightness that has been driving up Asian prices while demand typically weakens in the third quarter

Asian PTA prices may start to come under pressure as fresh supply will hit the markets when new major regional plants start production in the third quarter

ldquoMarket sentiment is currently pessimistic about the outlook however this can quickly change if we see a sudden uptick in downstream demandrdquo a China-based producer said

In India JBF Grouprsquos 125m tonneyear PTA unit in Mangalore is expected to start up in the third quarter although the schedule is still fluid according to several market participants

In China Fuhaichuang Petrochemical formerly known as Dragon Aromatics (Zhangzhou) is planning to resume operations at its complex in the third quarter of 2018 after a prolonged shutdown

Its petrochemical complex in Zhangzhou has a 45m tonneyear PTA plant comprisings three 15m tonneyear lines two of which have been in operation since end-2017 The company is likely to restart the third line once smooth operations at its upstream paraxylene (PX) unit at the site is achieved market players said

In Europe Indorama Ventures Portugal plans to start up in July an idled 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Sines Thailand-based Indorama Ventures Ltd acquired the

plant from Portuguese Artlant PTA in late 2017

All these factors should see the narrowing of the price gap between Chinarsquos import and domestic markets as early as July after widening steadily from March to May

As of 12 June the gap stood at $96tonne down from the peak of about $111tonne on 30 May

Asiarsquos PTA prices are currently steady at firm levels Regional end-users preferred to procure cargoes on a need-to basis and were not keen on building inventories

Future movement will depend on market conditions in the downstream polyester industry

The wide price gap in Chinarsquos import and domestic markets has been deterring Chinese buyers from tapping the international spot market for supplies since March while demand was healthy especially in the downstream polyethylene terephthalate (PET) markets

Tight global supply in the first half saw Asian producers shipping out cargoes to the Middle East as well as Europe which was hit by unplanned outages in Belgium and Poland in April

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In Europe BP Chemical on 15 April declared a force majeure at its Belgium PTA unit and a second force majeure on 17 May PKN Orlen on 23 April declared a force majeure at its Wloclawek PTA unit in Poland which was subsequently lifted on 2 May with spot cargoes from the plant limited until after a planned maintenance in SeptemberOctober 2018

Within Asia the southeastern region has had PTA plant outages and had to procure cargoes from the northeast in the preceding two months

Regional supply tightened further with the unexpected shutdown of Hanwha General Chemicalrsquos 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Daesan prompting a force majeure declaration on 21 May

In the first half of 2018 strong growth in demand in the downstream polyester markets in Asia particularly China supported the rally in PTA prices amid tight supply

Downstream polyester markets were enjoying positive margins keeping demand for feedstock PTA healthy

In the key China market operating rates at polyester units were higher compared with the previous year

The countryrsquos PTA production losses in January-June 2018 on the other hand were estimated at around 134m tonnes due to planned and unplanned outages

Asiarsquos PTA producers were largely enjoying healthy margins on the back of steady demand growth in the downstream polyester markets Firmer upstream energy

and feedstock PX prices have also buoyed PTA prices

In January to May 2018 Brent crude traded at $6692-7616bbl up by about 25 year

on year while PX prices were at $938-994tonne representing a 15 increase over the same period

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian purified terephthalic acid (PTA)) markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 23Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPOLYETHYLENE TEREPHTHALATE (PET)

ASIA PET TO REMAIN FIRM IN Q3 AS TIGHT SUPPLY SUPPORT PRICESBy Hazel Goh

Asian polyethylene terephthalate (PET) market is likely to remain firm in the third quarter on the back of tight supply a trend that has supported prices so far in 2018

Recently PET tight supply is a result of production cuts in Asia and Europe that have not had a clear estimated date of resuming normal operations

China Resources Packaging had cut production at its PET lines in Changzhou by 50 following notice from the government to reduce pollution in end-May It is not known for how long the production cuts will remain in place

In Europe there had been feedstock purified terephthalic acid (PTA) supply tightness leading to recent PET production cuts and force majeure by Novapet and JBF respectively

Many buyers had been purchasing on a need-to basis expecting that firm prices are unsustainable and will come down Subsequently they did not stock up cargoes ahead of the peak summer demand season for countries in the northern hemisphere

The reality turned out different and they had to accept higher prices as production cuts kept the supply tight

PET used to track feedstock price movements closely as it had been an oversupplied market and producers typically operate on thin margins

The oversupply situation changed and tightness was first felt in the third quarter of 2017 when plant closures by JBF RAK in the UAE and Belgium and by Mossi amp Ghisolfi (MampG) in the US Mexico and Brazil following financial tightness in the two PET-producing companies

Hurricane Harvey that hit the US in the third quarter led to further production cuts in the US

Back to Quick Navigation | 24Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 1

From then on supply remained tight as the plant under JBF RAK in the UAE and the former MampG plant in the US that had been acquired by Far Eastern remained shut for extended period of time even into 2018

Market players previously had concerns about where China will export its material when final anti-dumping duties (ADD) - heard to be at the same level as thepreliminary duties of 398-530 - wereimposed on its cargoes into Japan inJanuary

Japan was the top exporting destination for Chinese cargoes before the ADD following which the exports dropped drastically

While other producers such as Taiwanese southeast Asian Indian and South Korean producers sold more volumes into Japan Chinese makers sold to other markets that were relinquished by the other producers

Table 1 shows a significant difference between 2016 and 2017 in Chinarsquos export volumes to key destinations from the January-to-March period

Ranked by volume starting with largestvolume as 1

There is an ongoing anti-dumping duty (ADD) investigation by the US on PET cargoes from Brazil Pakistan Indonesia Taiwan and South Korea

The Commerce Department issued the preliminary dumping rates for Indonesia at 1316 South Korea at 881-10141 and Taiwan at 902-1189 in May Final determinations will be issued by 8 November

Even so some producers from the countries under investigation continued to receive buying enquiries from the US amid the current tight supply situation

There will be some upcoming new capacities expected in Q3 as shown in table 2 that may bring about a more balanced supply to meet the demand

The US plant acquired by Far Eastern is estimated to restart in June-July which should also ease the supply tightness

Even with the new capacities and plant restarts market participants think it is unlikely that PET market will return to the oversupply situation seen in the previous years

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PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian PET markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 25Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 2

Our English-language report coverage includes

Styrene MEG Propylene

BTX Methanol Base Oil

BPA PE MTBE

Phenol PP Mixed AromaticsAcetone Oxo-Alcohol

Trusted industryintelligence for Chinarsquoscommodity marketsDevelopments in Chinarsquos petrochemicals industrycontinue to affect the global marketplace It istherefore vital for domestic and internationalmarket players to keep track of changes withinthe country to know where opportunities lie

ICIS has long been recognised as a reliablesource of information our locally-based expertscompile reports and analyses in English tosupport industry participants dealing with Chinamarkets or seeking to trade or invest

Pricing informationOur pricing data provide key insights into pricetrends in China to support your short-termdecision-making negotiations and analyses

bull Import and export spot and contract pricesbull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity

and upstreamdownstream marketsbull Data on inventory levels and price marginsbull Plant and production news

Petrochemicals Analytics SolutionsProviding our customers with a 360-degree view of the Chinese market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker - real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for thenext 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics - key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock anddo wnstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlooks

Available for key chemical commodities

wwwiciscomchina

Discover how we can meet your market information needs

enquiryiciscom

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESMONOETHYLENE GLYCOL (MEG)

ASIA MEG TO SEE DEMAND TAPERING LOWER SUPPLY IN EARLY H2By Eric Su

The Asian monoethylene glycol (MEG) market could see demand slowing down from the end of June while supply will be reduced from a number of plant turnarounds

Inventories are expected to decline in June after offtake rates at Chinese main ports rose sharply in the last two weeks of May because of an uptick in demand from downstream polyester buyers

Demand for MEG is also expected to remain strong in the first half of June boosted by high polyester production rates of above 85 and modestly low inventory levels

A slowdown in demand may take place in the second half of June as the traditional manufacturing peak period nears its end in July

Meanwhile supply conditions could tighten because of the plant turnarounds in northeast Asia

However supply from the Middle East will likely resume to normal levels given that there were no further delay in shipments in May

MEG prices in Asia have registered year-on-year growth rates in the months to June this year

MEG prices have mostly hovered above $900tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China Main Port (CMP) while prices were mostly below $900tonne CFR CMP in 2017

Prices have been volatile in 2018 with major price swings seen on a near monthly basis since February

MEG prices in first quarter of 2018 continued the uptrend seen in the fourth quarter of 2017 rising to $1030tonne CFR CMP in early March from $922tonne CFR

CMP in late December as the higher-than-expected growth in downstream polyester fuelled bullish market sentiment

Polyester growth in 2017 was estimated at above 10 beating an originally bearish expectation of 2-3

A price downtrend was observed in March with the MEG weekly average price losing nearly 10 of its value to $929tonne CFR CMP by end-March

The price decline coincided with a sharp influx of imported cargoes which was likely a result of over-procurement in January

Back to Quick Navigation | 26Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

and February when prices were trending upwards

March 2018 import volumes rose to nearly 1m tonnes a record three-year high according to official China customs data

MEG prices rebounded in April rising by around 9 from end-March to $1014tonne CFR CMP by end-April ahead of the traditional peak period for the downstream polyester sector The average polyester production rate rose to above 85 during the period

MEG also achieved its to-date weekly peak of $1042tonne CFR CMP in the week ending 20 April

Supply tightness was also observed in the Chinese domestic market because of shipment delays from the Middle East and logistical issues at China main ports over the same period

The lack of availability of prompt cargoes also led to an atypical price spread between April and May delivery parcels

Normally the spread between arrived-at-port and far-term arrival cargoes is at $0-10tonne CFR CMP but this widened to $20-30tonne CFR CMP This drove concerns of sharp price adjustments in May once April deliveries were fulfilled

These concerns came true as MEG prices

began to slide in May MEG weekly prices stood at $928tonne CFR CMP in the last week of May falling from $1003tonne CFR CMP in early May

High inventory levels have also weighed on MEG prices Inventory levels were above 900000 tonnes from early May onward rising to 938000 tonnes by in late March Most market participants deemed inventory levels above 900000 tonnes to be high

The increase in inventory levels in May were largely attributed to the arrival of Middle East shipments which were previously due for arrival in April

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian MEG markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 27Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSETHYLENE

NE ASIA ETHYLENE H2 OUTLOOK HINGES ON NEW SUPPLY SM PLANTBy Yeow Pei Lin

Northeast (NE) Asiarsquos ethylene (C2) second-half 2018 outlook is uncertain as several crackers are scheduled for maintenance but such production losses could be offset by the start up of a new plant and cargoes from outside the region

More than 20 crackers in Asia are slated to undergo maintenance in 2018 with the estimated capacity losses totalling more than 185m tonnes Most of the turnarounds in the first half of the year were concentrated in Japan ndash a key exporter to China

However several more companies are to carry out turnarounds in June and the rest of the year

The impact on the regional balance will depend on the start-up progress of a new facility in South Korea and on whether the strong exports from southeast Asia and Europe in the first half of 2018 will continue

Shipments from Yeosu South Korea will start to slow down in August ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at complexes in that region

Exports will recover by December when Lotte Chemical brings on-stream an added capacity of 200000 tonnesyear at its Yeosu cracker

The facility will undergo an expansion during a turnaround from late September to October

Shipments from Ulsan another petrochemical cluster in South Korea will grow in the second half of 2018

Newcomer S-Oil is expected to begin commercial operations at its residue upgrading complex (RUC) in Onsan in the second half of June

The companyrsquos entire ethylene output of up

to around 200000 tonnesyear is intended for the merchant market as it does not have any downstream plants

Exports from southeast Asian producers will continue to be driven by the higher value from ethylene sales in the ethylene versus polyethylene (PE) trade-off

There will however be supply constraints

Four crackers in the region will undergo

maintenance and the affected producers include ExxonMobil and PTT Global Chemicals (PTTGC) that were regular exporters in the first half of 2018

Exports from Europe will likely be influenced by the performance of the PE sector

The outlook for the PE market in Europe is uncertain given the growing prospect of competitively-priced exports from the new US plants

Back to Quick Navigation | 28Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Ethylene costs in the US have been at low levels since early 2018 as production growth outpaces that for consumption

Since late 2017 about 3m tonnesyear of new ethylene capacity and about 35m tonnesyear of new PE capacity have started up in the US

The new crackers have been running well but several of the new PE plants struggled to reach full operating rates

Exports from Saudi Arabia are expected to be constrained by increased domestic consumption

Petro Rabigh announced in April that the last few plants in its Phase 2 project including a 75000 tonneyear ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) unit have started up

The companyrsquos ethylene exports could fall further in the second half of 2018 following the completion of its PE plant maintenance shutdowns earlier in the year

Chinarsquos import demand is poised for further growth when a new 260000 tonneyear styrene monomer (SM) plant starts up in the third quarter as planned

Anhui Haoyuan Chemical will be operating the unit in Fuyang Anhui on a standalone basis as its plans to build a methanol-to-olefin (MTO) plant have been put on hold amid high methanol prices

The plant will require around 78000 tonnes of ethylene annually to operate at maximum capacity

Based on the above factors it was not immediately clear if the ethylene prices in the second half will follow the volatile trend they displayed in the first five months of 2018

NE Asia spot ethylene prices were volatile from January to May as the impact of a heavy regional cracker turnaround schedule and strong Chinese demand was at times outweighed by strong exports from southeast Asia the Middle East and Europe

The market started the year at above a two and a half year high of $1415tonne CFR (cost amp freight) NE Asia in early January

Subsequent transacted prices fluctuated within a low $1200stonne to mid $1300stonne CFR NE Asia band in the five months ended 31 May

Prices in the first quarter were initially weighed down by ample supply from producers in the Middle East and Asia due to a series of PE plant shutdowns - both planned and unplanned

That was despite strong pre-Lunar New Year holiday restocking activities in China

Demand was bolstered by the start up of a 500000 tonneyear non-integrated SM plant and generally healthy downstream margins for producers outside the PE sector

End-users were also keen to build up their inventories because of the slow progress in their 2018 term contract discussions ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at facilities of key exporters in the region

In addition a major ethylene oxide (EO) maker was seeking more import cargoes following a disruption in supply from its upstream MTO unit The plant was shut twice between late November and the first half of February because of high feedstock methanol costs

The market recovered in early March in line with the start of the annual cracker turnaround season in northeast Asia where

scheduled capacity losses in 2018 will be overall higher than the previous year

That explained why the countryrsquos exports from January to April slumped by 14 year-on-year to 201274 tonnes

In late April northeast Asiarsquos spot prices fell again after a surprisingly large quantity of deep-sea spot cargoes were sold into Asia for delivery between the middle of May and the first half of June

There were at least 55000-60000 tonnes of cargoes from Europe in addition to 11000 tonnes of US supply for that delivery period Europe was in a long position because of derivative maintenance shutdowns and production problems

Continued strong exports from southeast Asia owing to downstream production issues and the weak performance of the linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) market contributed to the downbeat sentiment

The ample supply outweighed Chinarsquos robust import demand

Buying interest in China was strong for April and May arrival cargoes on the back

Back to Quick Navigation | 29Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

of healthy downstream margins for certain downstream markets such as SM EO and monoethylene glycol (MEG)

Ethylene buyers in China were also keen to book deep-sea cargoes to offset the expected regional production losses from cracker turnarounds

Prices rebounded quickly in mid-May

aided by a bullish SM market and reduced domestic supply

Some MTO operators lowered production in May as high feedstock methanol costs led to squeezed margins while a key producer in east China lowered its cracker run rates unexpectedly

Sharp increases in feedstock naphtha costs

which tracked gains on crude oil futures also helped set a floor to the earlier price declines

By early June spot ethylene prices had touched a 20-week high raising questions on whether the market will see similar price volatility in the second half of 2018

Producers will turn hawkish if the outlook for crude and naphtha markets remains upbeat

Back to Quick Navigation | 30Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSPROPYLENE

TIGHT NE ASIA PROPYLENE SUPPLY TO LIMIT H2 PRICE FLUCTUATIONSBy Joson Ng

Tight propylene (C3) supply in northeast Asia amid a heavy turnaround schedule in 2018 will continue supporting regional prices of the material into the second half

Sellers are likely to continue passing on firmer costs to buyers which are wary of October when heavy propylene production losses are expected

Buyersrsquo resistance in the key China market would keep any further increase in propylene prices in check with some downstream producers considering cutting output due to high feedstock costs

At the start of June propylene prices have weakened ending the strong general uptrend since end-March amid weakness in Chinarsquos domestic market as demand softened due to turnarounds at downstream polypropylene (PP) plants

However the downward pressure on regional prices may be temporary as overall supply in Asia is expected to be tight

In early June spot propylene prices in northeast Asia were about 9 higher from the start of 2018 according to ICIS data

The year started on a bullish note fuelled by a heavier cracker turnaround schedule compared with 2017 and higher premium levels concluded for contract cargoes

The uptrend was sustained into February due to restocking activities in various import markets in northeast Asia before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February

Before the holidays some South Korean producers were convinced the market will experience supply shortage as both GS Caltexrsquos fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity and Yeochun NCCrsquos (YNCC) cracker ndash which can produce 280000 tonnesyear of propylene ndash were due for maintenance in February through to April

But propylene prices surprisingly weakened from 9 February to end-March without demand support from Chinarsquos weak PP market which struggled through sluggish sales and high inventory after the countryrsquos week-long Lunar New Year holiday

A renewed wave of scheduled turnarounds at regional plants tightened supply and drove up propylene prices in April and May

In Taiwan Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) took its residue fluid catalytic

Back to Quick Navigation | 31Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

cracking (RFCC) unit with a 350000 tonneyear propylene capacity off stream from 1 March to mid-April while CPC Corp shut its 100000 tonneyear FCC unit on 10 April and restarted in early June

In South Korea GS Caltex also had a turnaround at its FCC unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity from 19 February to 5 April

SK Advanced shut its propane dehydrogenated (PDH) unit with 600000 tonneyear propylene capacity on 21 April to early May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian propylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 32Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

To talk to someone about price forecast reports call the numbers below or email us at salesukiciscomAsia-Pacific Europe Africa and Middle East The AmericasTel +65 6789 8828 Tel +44 20 8652 3335 Tel +1 713 525 2600 or Toll free +1 888 525 3255 (US and Canada only)

ICIS price forecast reportsSupply demand and price trends at a glance

ICIS price forecast reports provide a clear view of prices and supply and demand trends for the next 12 months Packed with vital information the report includes everything you need to assess where the market is heading and the impact or opportunity that presents for your business

To find out more or take a trial visit wwwiciscompriceforecast

Price Forecast Window

ICIS price forecasts are now available on the Dashboard channel using the Price Forecast Window which will enable users to

n Chart the price forecast against the last (rolling) twelve months of related price history

n Plot the last 12 months to view forecast progression and ICIS forecast accuracy

n Convert data into different currencies and units and download this data into Excel in order to easily enter into your own calculations

How price forecast reports can help youn Understand the marketUse ICIS price forecast reports to understand where the market is heading and identify the risks and the opportunities for your business What are the major demand developments for your product n Safeguard commercial decisionsUse market information to make better-informed business decisions relating to supply and demand Learn about changes in market capacities What factors will affect supply for you n Budgeting and planningWhether you are planning how much you will be spending in the short-to medium or even long term use the price forecast reports to help assess future prices for your product What will the price of your product be in six monthsrsquo time

Price forecast reports currently

available

Available as price forecast windows only

Polypropylene

Polyethylene

Benzene

StyrenePolystyrene

Methanol

Ethylene

Propylene

Styrene

Asia Europe US Global

3

3

3

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3

3

3

3

3

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3

3

3

3

OLEFINSBUTADIENE

ASIA BD TO FLUCTUATE IN H2 AS SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE SHIFTSBy Helen Yan

Asiarsquos butadiene (BD) spot prices for July shipments are likely to face downward pressure but any price downtrend is likely to reverse when cracker turnarounds start to kick in from September onwards

BD prices are expected to be weighed down before seeing support again in the third quarter as the supply and demand balance shifts during this period

The fourth quarter will likely see support for BD prices although the increases may be tempered by resistance from the downstream synthetic rubber (SR) makers to any significant price hikes

The busy cracker turnaround season in September-November will likely see supply tightening at the same time that demand is expected to pick up during this period

Several crackers and BD units including South Korearsquos Lotte Chemical LG Chem and Chinarsquos Shanghai Secco and Maoming Petrochemical are scheduled to shut during

the September to November time frame

In the near term BD spot prices are likely to continue to trend lower as demand wanes while supply at the same time is expected to lengthen due to an influx of deep-sea cargoes and regional cracker restarts

More than 15000 tonnes of deep-sea cargoes from EU are expected to arrive in Asia in June and July at the same time that crackers in Asia including Indiarsquos Haldia Petrochemical and Indonesiarsquos Chandra Asri resume their production following their maintenance shutdowns

On 8 June spot prices fell to $1725tonne CFR (cost amp freight) northeast (NE) Asia the second consecutive week of decline after spiralling upwards in the two months since early April

BD spot prices had increased by more than 40 since early April peaking at $1800tonne CFR NE Asia on 25 May

Strong demand from derivative acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) makers which were running their plants at optimal rates had bolstered the BD price upsurge during this period

However derivative styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) and polybutadiene rubber (PBR) producers the key consumers of BD cut their production output given the continued erosion in margins

Several major SBR and PBR producers said their margins had fallen into negative territory and retreated from the BD spot market in June

Chinese spot appetite in particular tapered off as domestic BD prices were lower compared with the US dollar-denominated import prices

In China Hangzhou Zhechen Jilin Petrochemical Zhejiang Transfar and Shen Hua Chemical were some of the SBR and PBR plants that are shut for maintenance in June and July

Several SBR and PBR plants in Taiwan and South Korea were also running at lower rates following the 40 BD price spike in the two months from early April to end-May

In South Korea major SR producer Korea Kumho Petrochemical PC was running its SBR and PBR plants at reduced rates

Back to Quick Navigation | 33Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian butadiene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 34Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Similarly Taiwanrsquos TSRC also cut the production output of its SBR and PBR plants

The outlook for the fourth quarter is expected to see a different turn of events with SBR and PBR plants resuming their production and ramping up their operating rates while supply during the last quarter is expected to tighten from the heavy cracker turnaround season

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYETHYLENE (PE)

SOUTHEAST ASIA PE MARKET FACES LONGER H2 SUPPLY WEAK DEMANDBy Felita Widjaja

Southeast Asiarsquos polyethylene (PE) market may be facing longer supply in the second half hinging on how the US-China trade spat plays out amid the regionrsquos weakening demand for imports

Global PE trade flows will be affected should China the biggest importer of spot PE cargoes in the world decide to impose retaliatory 25 tariff on US cargoes

Southeast Asia as an alternative buying region might be hard pressed to absorb additional supply from the US where massive PE capacities recently started up which were meant to cater to huge Chinese demand

Around 5m tonnes of additional US PE capacities are expected from several major projects including those in the pipeline to start up within the second half of 2018

China primarily imports PE cargoes from Asia and the Middle East while the US is its sixth leading PE supplier in 2017

ldquoEventually more substantial and regular volume of US [PE] cargoes are expected to be traded in Asia in the second half of the year as we have yet to see them in the first half of this yearrdquo said a regional trader

Any changes in trade flows would pose challenges to US suppliers in the short term as they would need to revamp their logistics and distribution channels to redirect cargoes to other markets

Suppliers from the Middle East meanwhile might take the opportunity to supply more cargoes to China and would mean fewer volumes available to the southeast Asian market

The Middle East is southeast Asiarsquos major PE supplier

Demand for PE imports in southeast Asia has been weak amid lower prices in

Back to Quick Navigation | 35Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

the domestic markets as in the case of Thailand

ldquoThai traders are not keen to import as local prices are more competitive so they do not have the margin to sell the imported cargoes in local market Only some converters who need specific cargoes continue to importrdquo said a local Thai trader

Malaysia and Indonesia with predominantly Muslim populations have seen market activity slow down since mid-May when the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan started Ramadan ends with the Eid ul-Fitr holiday on 15 June

The Indonesian government has declared a longer Eid-ul Fitr holiday this year from 11-20 June

Markets in Singapore and the Philippines will be closed for the mid-June holiday as well

With supply expected to become long some market players expect regional PE prices in July and August to ease from

June with restocking activities expected to kick in towards the end of the third quarter

In the first half of 2018 southeast Asiarsquos average prices for commodity PE were largely stable to firm owing to suppliersrsquo relatively comfortable-to-tight supply for most of the period

At the start of June high density polyethylene (HDPE) film grade prices averaged $1395tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia while linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) film were at $1210tonne CFR SE Asia and $1265tonne CFR SE Asia respectively according to ICIS data

Prices had spiked in the first quarter as suppliers were holding comfortable-to-tight inventory as several regional producers have scheduled turnarounds at their plants in March Production issues and shutdowns in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia also limited availability of imports to southeast Asia during this period

Supply for HDPE film was particularly tight as some producers from the Middle East as well as Asia switched their focus into making HDPE pipe grade amid robust demand and better netbacks

The price uptrend across most PE grades could not be sustained in the second quarter although prices remained relatively stable-to-firm

The depreciation of local currencies in southeast Asia against the US dollar in most of the second quarter was also curbing overall demand for imports A weaker currency makes US dollar-denominated imports expensive

ldquoIndonesian buyers have not been buying much cargoes as the market slowed down during Ramadan and also because of weak rupiah which led the central bank to increase interest rate to limit the depreciationrdquo said a regional producer

CHINA PE IMPORTS TO STAY STRONG AMID DOMESTIC PLANT TURNAROUNDS By Angie Li

Chinarsquos polyethylene (PE) imports are expected to remain strong for the rest of the year after posting record volumes in January to April 2018 amid scheduled turnarounds at domestic facilities

Buyers in China have been accumulating imported PE cargoes as these were priced lower compared futures prices since the start of the year

More cargoes will be available to China as new capacities in the US are expected to boost production

For the month of May the countryrsquos PE imports are projected to reach 12m tonnes higher than the monthly average in the first four months of 2018

In January to April 2018 its PE imports volumes totaled 447m tonnes up by 12 from the previous corresponding period according to industry sources

The import volumes were making up for the production losses in the domestic market due to scheduled turnarounds

On 1 June low density PE (LDPE) imports were assessed at $1155-1180tonne linear low density PE (LLDPE) stood at $1150-1170tonne while high density PE (HDPE) film products were at $1340-1400tonne according to ICIS data

The prices have increased 15-62 from end-March but the gains came in lower than market playersrsquo expectations considering the heavy production loss due to turnarounds from April

Back to Quick Navigation | 36Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

An estimated 500000 tonnes are expected to be shaved in the second quarter due to scheduled maintenance at domestic facilities according ICIS data

ldquoWe thought the hefty plant turnarounds in the second quarter should lead to a surge in PE prices but the LDPE and LLDPE prices were less than satisfactory although HDPE prices [were] highrdquo said an east China-based trader referring to both the import and domestic PE prices

Strong imports amid hedging activities bloated the total supply in China in January to April to 998m tonnes up by 8 from the previous corresponding period with supply of LDPE and LLDPE up by 14 and 8 respectively market sources said

Imports of HDPE inched up by 2 over the same period given the gradersquos comparatively higher prices compared with LLDPE and LDPE

Increased availability due to recent capacity expansions and start-ups in Asia the Middle East also fuels Chinarsquos appetite for import cargoes

In the first quarter of 2018 additional cargoes from Saudi Arabia were mostly from Sadara Chemical which started up its 750000 tonneyear swing plant and 350000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Al Jubail during late 2016 and early 2017 respectively

Cargoes of Iran origin augmented the total volume from the UAE as market players try to go around the financial sanctions on Tehran Kordestan Petrochemicalrsquos 300000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Iran came on stream in March 2017

UAErsquos Borouge has also ramped up pipe and HDPE film exports to China during the period according to a supplier in the Middle East

Meanwhile PE imports from Singapore surged 38 year on year while those from India more than doubled to 127000 tonnes according to China Customs data

The ban on waste plastics implemented in China in the year also bolstered imports of virgin PE Some waste plastics processed overseas and then re-entered the market as virgin products but these volumes were limited

Last year China has imported 194m tonnes of PE waste plastics while

volumes in 2018 will be negligible with the implemention of the ban

Chinarsquos PE production this year is expected to increase by around 7 to about 17m tonnes in 2018 with imports projected to grow by 102 to around 13m tonnes according to a source from state-owned petrochemical giant PetroChina

Domestic demand for PE on the other hand is forecast to grow by 8 this year mainly from the packaging and pipe markets

Chinarsquos ongoing campaign to switch to using gas for power generation instead of coal is expected to continue boosting demand for PE gas pipes this year

The packaging industry will also drive up PE consumption underpinned by growth in electronic commerce Chinarsquos express delivery volumes reached 137bn packages during January-April 2018 based on data from the recent China Express Industry Development Conference in May

Back to Quick Navigation | 37Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 38Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

By Jonathan Lopez

ICIS NewsThe leading news service for real-time ground breaking news and analysis on the global petrochemicals markets

The ICIS News services give you unrivalled access to the most in-depth stories impacting the petrochemicals markets influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions

Our team of global editors are reporting around the clock to bring you the latest news and analysis so that you get the full picture of market and pricing developments first providing you with invaluable foresight to take advantage of every opportunity and to stay ahead of your competitors

With ICIS News you will be the first to read

Breaking news on the chemical markets that will impact your business

News on market moves deals and announcements that will affect your organisation

Force majeures closures and developments that influence your commodity prices

Expert analysis on industry trends and hot topics ndash know whatrsquos happening and why

Searchable archive with over 14 million articles from the past 10 years

Chemical Business News Base (CBNB) is a premium resource available on ICIS News It provides you with an extensive external source of upstream and downstream petrochemical news in summarised snapshots so you can quickly and easily get the latest updates on whatrsquos important to you

CBNB offers readers

Fast and consistent coverage on news facts figures from the upstream and downstream petrochemicals industry

Access to over 700 news sources including technical and trade journals company literature market research reports stockbroker reports books and directories

User-friendly search functionality to find articles most relevant to you from around the globe

Quick and easy-to-read summarised snapshots of articles with option to access full articles from the original source

ICIS Chemical Business digital magazine (ICB) Our global team of experts digests and summarises the key issues and their potential impact on the chemical markets offering a comprehensive overview of the key developments that matter most-along with informed opinion and in-depth analysis

ICB features include

In-depth insight into chemical price changes and their impact on the markets

Understand the detail behind the headline news stories

Find out about supply amp demand trends and the factors impacting them

Get the complete picture of the chemical markets ndash all in one e-magazine

Easy access via e-magazine and premium magazine website

Find out more wwwiciscomnews

ICIS News offers access to additional sources including the ICIS Chemical Business Magazine and Chemical Business News Base (CBNB)

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYPROPYLENE (PP)

SE ASIA PP PRICES MAY COME UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 AS SUPPLY LENGTHENSBy Leanne Tan

Southeast Asiarsquos polypropylene (PP) market may come under pressure in the second half of the year on account of lengthening regional supply and weak downstream demand

Spot prices have been on the rise for most of May buoyed by bullish sentiment in the Chinese market and firm upstream feedstock costs

Margins for PP makers have been lower on average compared with levels in the previous year

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refinery amp Petrochemicals is scheduled to start up its 400000 tonneyear PP production unit in the third quarter The project was initially scheduled to start up in the first quarter of 2018

While domestic demand will continue to outstrip local production the countryrsquos reliance on imports may be diminished when the new plant starts up

Converters in the country have been opting to keep inventories lean in the short term amid expectations that prices may eventually weaken when more domestic supply becomes available

ldquoBuyers donrsquot want to buy too much import cargoes now not just because prices are high but also because there will be more locally-produced materials very soonrdquo a Vietnamese trader said

In Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan is expected to start commercial production at its expanded PP facility in Pasir Gudang in June or July The plantrsquos capacity will be raised by 200000 tonnesyear from 400000 tonnesyear

Import availabilities from South Korea are expected to lengthen in the medium-to-long term with S-Oil expected to complete an olefin downstream complex (ODC) at its Onsan refinery in Ulsan which will include a

405000 tonneyear PP capacity

On the demand front weakness is likely to persist in the second half with converters and end-users likely to continue buying spot cargoes on a hand-to-mouth basis

Indonesiarsquos demand in particular has been below expectations since the start of 2018 and this is likely to continue in the second half of the year according to market players

Back to Quick Navigation | 39Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Some players said import demand for dutiable cargoes may increase in the second half of the year as this is typically when the government issues duty exemption facilities

The duty exemption facilities are issued on a yearly basis which enable converters to import some PP volumes without extra cost

In Malaysia the removal of the 6 goods and services tax (GST) so far has had no immediate impact on the PP market although there are some expectations the move could potentially boost demand in the consumer market further down the road

In Vietnam demand for PP flat yarn has entered a seasonal lull from May to early July and will not pick up until August when the summer harvest begins

PP is widely used in the manufacture of woven sacks (for rice sacks) flexible packaging carpets household appliances and automotive parts

Spot PP prices in southeast Asia have been an uptrend for most of the first half

The PP market begun the year on a bullish note with spot prices surging by almost 10 over the course of two months all-origins PP flat yarn prices peaked at $1295tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia on 2 March

Healthy demand in China helped to provide support to spot prices in southeast Asia in the first quarter with a tight global spot supply leading to further price escalations

Some suppliers pulled back from the southeast Asian spot market to capitalise on better netbacks in other countries including Japan and Pakistan leading to further curtailed spot availability in southeast Asia

The market rally started to lose steam in early March amid subdued demand and a build-up of domestic inventories in China after the Lunar New Year holidays

The bearish sentiment soon spilled over into southeast Asia with Chinese suppliers pushing some volumes into southeast Asia amid an open arbitrage window

Vietnam remains the market of choice for Chinese exporters and PP import prices in the country plummeted as the result of the lengthened spot availability

However the bearish run was short-lived and prices soon bottomed out in early April

Bullish momentum in the upstream crude and naphtha markets propelled spot prices of polymers higher

Despite lacklustre downstream demand price hikes in April and May were commonplace as producers sought higher asking prices in view of narrower margins

TIGHT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT CHINA PP MARKET DESPITE WEAK DEMANDBy Dora Xue

Tight supply would buoy up Chinarsquos polypropylene (PP) prices in the near term despite weak downstream demand

The market is expecting heavy production losses following recent unexpected outages at five domestic facilities from May and scheduled turnarounds at other plants

In the week ended on 1 June domestic prices for PP flat yarn in east China were assessed at Chinese yuan (CNY) 9075tonne after a steady increase from early April according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos import prices for the same material stood at $1245tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China largely tracking movement in the domestic market over the past two months according to ICIS data

The strong PP prices have also started to deter buyers from purchasing more spot cargoes

ldquoPP prices are too high We donrsquot want to store too much in our warehouserdquo a buyer said

Downstream demand typically goes on a lull in June and July but any downward pressure on prices will be negated by a further tightening of supply as major plants will be taken off line for maintenance

ldquoWhen the maintenance season finishes in late June [PP] prices may start to go downrdquo a trader said

Demand is considered weakest at Qingdao in the eastern Shandong province due to government-mandated production cuts and logistics restrictions ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (SCO Summit) on 9-10 June

As of 1 June the combined polyolefin inventories of Chinese petrochemical majors Sinopec and PetroChina have declined back to normal levels of 700000 tonnes from a high of 1m tonnes in early March market sources said

Import supply to China may not improve in the short term as suppliers still deem other

Back to Quick Navigation | 40Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

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The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 14: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

But this was further secured by ADDs imposed on some of Chinarsquos key suppliers of SM as part of the Chinese authoritiesrsquo preliminary decision in February

This had greatly reduced options for the largest importer of SM cargoes in Asia

China which imported over 3m tonnes of SM in 2017 has had to turn to the Middle East southeast Asia and Japan to supplement cargoes it had received before from countries affected by ADD

Other macroeconomic factors boosted the CFR China assessment -- a stronger yuan rendered US dollar imports more competitive versus domestic cargoes for one

China also lowered VAT rates from 17 to 16 effective May 1 further bolstering interest in imported cargoes

Prices fell in end-February as some sellers offloaded cargoes due to an influx of arrivals

Concerns over end user demand emerged as the second quarter was expected to be a good demand season for SM and its derivatives but in reality buyers were slow to emerge deterred by high prices

In China in particular demand was slow to pick up after the Lunar New Year holiday because downstream producers were well stocked as operating rates were maintained during the typically low demand season in winter

This was in anticipation of rising SM prices due to the ADD probe

The additional spot cargoes in the market combined with lackluster demand pressured spot prices lower The CFR China assessment on 21 March fell to $1270tonne

As news of more turnarounds planned within China emerged domestic supply of SM was looking increasingly tight

With many plants due to be shut over April to June production was persistently lowered over the quarter and expectations of tight supply pushed the market higher again

Spot prices remained on an upswing as inventory levels slumped and prompt supply was limited

Stockpiles of SM in east China fell to a multi-year low as of 30 May at 37500 tonnes

Back to Quick Navigation | 13Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian styrene monomer (SM) markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 14Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Cargoes hitting Chinarsquos shores were not sufficient to meet the countryrsquos growing appetite for SM particularly as the Q3 manufacturing for exports season was fast approaching

Downstream producers however were struggling to pass on rising feedstock costs to their buyers

Thinning margins have led to some mulling lowering operating rates at its resin plants

Petrochemicals Analytics SolutionsOur new and enhanced petrochemical analytics and insight puts you in a stronger position so you can optimise your trades plans and strategies in order to secure a competitive advantage

ICIS is the only information provider to offer this unique combination of analytics tools as one subscription alongside pricing data and analysis

Live Supply Disruption TrackerPlant outages and maintenance for the next 12 months plus the impact of capacity changes

3 Pre-empt competition and capitalise on trades impacted by outages

3 Be aware of market shortages with a real-time view to manage risk and ensure security of stock

3 Negotiate better prices with other market players

Supply amp Demand OutlooksQuarterly global supply and demand review and outlook for key value chains and regions

3 Support your short-term strategy with upstream and downstream market sentiment and expectations for the current quarter at a regional level

3 Expand opportunities in international trade3 Understand at-a-glance the regional supply and

demand outlook across six key commodity chains

Price Drivers AnalyticsCross-commodity and cross-regional analysis of importexport parity substitution trends and feedstockdownstream spreads

3 Gain new context and negotiating tools in addition to ICIS price assessments

3 Pre-empt competition and spot opportunities with visual charts and impact commentaries

3 Reduce the time spent making manual calculations and spend more time on strategy and acting on market opportunities

4

360 view of the market l See the global market from

all anglesl Achieve better price

flexibilityl Enrich strategy plans with

validated quality datasets

Real-time information l Powered by 43000 plant

data in the ICIS Supply andDemand Database and 247global market coverage byICIS editors

l Information updated inreal time in line with ICISproduction news

Complex analytics made simple l Real-time visualisation with

impact analysisl Interactive customisable

view with advanced filteringl Supplement in-house

analytics

NEW

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AROMATICSTOLUENE

CHINA IMPORTS TO UNDERPIN ASIA TOLUENE MARKET IN H2 2018By Trixie Yap

Asiarsquos toluene market direction in the second half of this year will be determined by the buying activity from Chinese importers which has been the key factor influencing its prices so far in 2018

FOB (free on board) Korea prices which have been fluctuating in a wider-than-expected range for the past month closed at $760-785tonne in the week ended 1 June for June and July-loading parcels

The decreases at the close on 1 June marked the end of three weeksrsquo worth of stable-to-firm price trend

This followed weaker import demand from China for July which mainly stemmed from the ending of traders replenishing shore tank inventories at eastern ports such as Jiangsu

CFR (cost amp freight) China prices were in a sideways trend for most parts of early 2018 up to March at $690-765tonne

Prices only picked up after April and hit a peak of $835tonne CFR China after fluctuating in the $700-710tonne CFR China range for a few weeks

Unlike earlier expectations when market players were hoping for Chinese import demand to peak after the post early-March Lunar New Year period CFR China buying activity remained muted and only rose after May because of improved demand from the gasoline blenders

Blending demand received a boost because of lower gasoline production from state-owned refineries amid a spate of turnarounds in China ndash mainly in the eastern regions ndash starting end April to June

The better blending economics for toluene in early May particularly for the oil majors paved the way for demand as well

Back to Quick Navigation | 15Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Toluene-isomer xylenes spread on an ex-tank basis was wider with toluene being much more price friendly for gasoline production as compared to isomer xylene

With the 1 May implementation of a new online tax-filing system for oil and chemical products oil majors had no choice but to buy blend stocks themselves

Back to Quick Navigation | 16Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

instead of gasoline cargoes directly as the government was effectively making private gasoline blending activities unworkable as these blenders will not be able to potentially avoid tax payments via the paper filing system now

The presence of higher-than-expected inventories at east China main ports ndash stock levels hit a high of 76700 tonnes in early March ndash contributed further to the later timing of import demand Inventories only fell significantly after April (see chart above)

The only key issue hampering import demand from improving further was the

generally weak off taking activities from the downstream chemical sectors as isocynates benzoic acid benzyl chloride and other types of solvent products

The downstream demand was hampered because of low and unchanged operating rates because of stricter environmental regulations imposed by the government since second-half 2017

Looking ahead however the bleak demand situation for toluene from the chemical downstream sector could reverse soon starting August-September because of Wan Hua Chemicalrsquos new TDI plant start-up

The TDI plantsrsquo nameplate capacity is currently 300000 tonnesyear which could equate to around 160000 tonnesyear of toluene usage according to several market players

While this may not directly represent an increase in demand for CFR China import toluene cargoes it is likely to boost domestic toluene demand within north China particularly Shandong region and allow for potential arbitrage flows within the country

This in turn may support import parity of yuan-denominated ex-tank prices and allow for healthy distributor margins ndash if they consider to buy CFR China cargoes which is a key driver for majority of these import buyers

Market participants in China were quick to note also that supply increments ndash following at least three new plant start-ups this year ndash will outpace demand increments whichcould pose a problem in determining whichwill have a larger impact on import demandand prices

ldquoThe additional capacities may not be sold into the merchant market because there will still be captive usage since these producers are refineries with gasoline requirements and fulfilmentsrdquo one east China-based trader said

Ultimately it will be dependent on how the internal consumption for gasoline ndash of these new start-ups ndash will pan out leading up to the year-end

Changes in average operating rates of state-owned refineries due to turnarounds or outages will be another direction driver

Aside from China demand-supply fundamentals the other key price driver is the supply balance within Asia

Supply has been generally long between January and May owing to the stable operating plant rates and overall sufficient availability in southeast Asia a key net exporter within the region

Availability of northeast Asian cargoes was curtailed at some points in time ndash particularly in February and March ndashbecause of turnarounds

Back to Quick Navigation | 17Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 18Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

However supply has been steadily rising for cargoes loading in May and June ndash with the market seeing an additional of close to 30000 tonnes of product from South Korea alone ndash as some downstream plants had ongoing shutdown plans all the way till early July (see right)

All of these cargoes as expected are heading to China because of the opened arbitrage window for exports during the same time period

The increment in excess spot supply from South Korea ndash going forward ndash will be driven by downstream spreads for TDP operators since the benzene-toluene spreads have been narrowing consistently from March when the spreads hit a peak

The healthy spreads between toluene and xylenes (para and isomer) have been the only saving grace for the TDP market

ldquoBenzene demand-supply fundamentals are likely to continue remaining weak with increments in supply still expected from Middle East and Vietnam from June so that is going to still put pressure on TDP operators whether to run their unit with more toluene or less toluene [since they can adjust the amount of feedstock]rdquo one northeast Asian end-user said

ldquoBenzene demand-supply fundamentals are likely to continue remaining weak with increments in supply still expected from Middle East and Vietnam from June so that is going to still put pressure on TDP operators whether to run their unit with more toluene or less toluene [since they can adjust the amount of feedstock]rdquo one northeast Asian end-user said

There is also hope that supply will be curbed again in the autumn season ndash when several plants start their planned maintenances ndash to provide a temporary relief to the readily sufficient spot availability

Ultimately if Chinarsquos importing activity continues to be robust there will be no issues with them soaking up the excess supplies at any point of time

ldquoThe key issue is how much these buyers can procure and how long their buying activities can last but so far it has been very sporadic and capped to short time frames because of them being risk averserdquo one southeast Asian trader said

Back to Quick Navigation | 19Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian toluene markets

BASE OILSBASE OILS

ASIA MIDEAST BASE OILS FIRM IN H1 BUT SOME PULLBACK LIKELY IN H2By Jasmine Khoo amp Izham Ahmad

Asia base oils Group I SN150 and Group II 150N prices are expected to remain firm on persistently low supply whereas the heavy grades - Group I SN500 and Group II 500600N - could come under pressure on ample availability

Into the second half of the year base oils supply from Iran are expected to be stable with no known maintenance plans due over the following few months from June and that could add further pressure on prices amid the weak demand outlook

Only one Iranian refiner is due for a maintenance shutdown in the second half of the year possibly sometime in September according to market sources

In Group II like in Asia short supply of 150N and 500600N is expected to support prices in coming months but the Group II segment in the Middle East is a much smaller market for producers

Major Group II and III producers in Saudi Arabia Qatar Bahrain and UAE also continue to focus on their traditional markets outside of the Middle East due to stronger demand and higher margins

Brightstock remained largely stable for June in terms of pricing following deals done at parity with Mayrsquos levels but market players maintained a cautious stance towards brightstock pricing which would typically see downward pressure towards the end of the year

The winter season in parts of Asia would typically herald a period of slow cargo uptake for brightstock as transportation logistics get more challenging

As for Group III base oils northeast Asian-origin lots are expected to see support in spot prices from June as seen from healthy uptake among buyers amid short supply from regional suppliers

Similarly in the Middle East market Group I prices started the year on a firm note

Around mid-February SN500 prices traded up to $80750tonne FOB (free on board) Iran their highest levels since ICIS began tracking the data in November 2015

SN150 also traded their record highs about the same time hitting $72750tonne FOB Iran

These record highs were held until early May despite buyers at the time showing increasing resistance to the higher levels and the uncertainty that took hold of the market ahead of a deadline for the US to decide on whether it would remain in the Iran nuclear deal

On 8 May US president Donald Trump announced that the US will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal and re-impose sanctions on Tehran consequently driving up crude prices to new highs since late 2014

Iranrsquos base oils prices were largely stable in that week but market outlook has been clouded with uncertainties following the USrsquo decision to re-impose sanctions on the country

Group I SN500 prices were stable through the early half of May at $780-805tonne FOB Iran while Group I SN150 were holding at $710-745tonne FOB Iran since early-February according to ICIS data

Prices began to decline around mid-May when it became more apparent that the increased sanctions would cause at least some disruptions to business dealings with Iranian entities

Market players said they encountered difficulties in financial transactions with Iran and many financial institutions were reluctant to take on any dealings involving Iran-based businesses for fear of conflicting with the US sanctions

On the supply side market players in the UAE said there were sufficient cargoes built up over recent months and as such

there was less demand for further spot deals in Group I particularly with the threat of renewed sanctions

Mid-May also marked the start of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan which is a typically slow season for the Middle East

Certain manufacturing activities are reduced as factories observed shorter operating hours and as many workers took some vacation time as well

The Eid ul-Fitr long holidays followed the end of Ramadan in mid-June

Asiarsquos base oils market trends for certain widely-traded Group I grades snapped out of persistent uptrend in late April against a backdrop of increasingly squeezed buyersrsquo margins and waning demand

Steady gains in FOB Asia spot prices were recorded since September 2017 on the back of regional shortages as demand surpassed output

This was partly fuelled by natural disasters in the US when Hurricane Harvey disrupted between 20 and 25 of the countryrsquos refining capacity in August

The disruption to base oils production at some units led to increased appetite for deep-sea shipments from Asia to the US

In the current market SN500 prices registered the greatest drops among the ICIS assessed grades shedding slightly more than 12 of its spot pricing between 13 April and 25 May ICIS data showed

Market participants attributed the price dip to lackluster demand brought about by a supply overhang of domestically-produced SN400 in the local Chinese market

Competitive pricing of SN400 amid ample availability curtailed import appetite among China-based buyers for SN500 of Asian origin especially since some buyers were still holding on to sufficient stocks for the near term

Back to Quick Navigation | 20Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Brightstock prices also softened reflecting increasingly squeezed buyersrsquo margins following steep gains seen from 22 September 2017 to 23 March 2018 in FOB Asia export prices

Some buyers were also sitting on sufficient inventories from active procurement earlier in the year leading to waned demand

This led refiners and traders to cut offers to encourage cargo uptake for May shipment cargoes

Group II 150N and 500600N prices largely held up on the back of potential supply woes in the summer season amid scheduled shutdowns at major Asian refineries

Taiwanrsquos Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) is expected to conduct planned maintenance in July market sources said

This led market players to hold on to expectations of buoyed spot prices for Group II base oils in the near term though significant increase is not expected for certain grades such as 500600N amid ample spot availability in the region

Group III 4 and 6cst base oils largely continued their steady price uptrend reflecting short supply among key South Korean Group III suppliers

8cst base oils of northeast Asian origin amid comparatively greater availability than its lighter counterparts saw less gains in prices since the beginning of 2018

South Korean-origin Group III base oils prices were mostly buoyant despite an influx of Middle East-origin Group III base oils into the northeast Asian market since November 2017 as South Korean-origin Group III users adhered largely to using the same material due to formulation restrictions and related OEM approvals

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PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian base oils markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 21Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPURIFIED TEREPHTHALIC ACID (PTA)

ASIA PTA SUPPLY TO LENGTHEN IN H2 ON INDIA CHINA PLANT START-UPSBy Samuel Wong

Supply of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in Asia is expected to lengthen in the second half of 2018 as new capacities will start up in the major markets of India and China amid a slowdown in demand

Major plants would have resumed production after unplanned outages to ease the current global supply tightness that has been driving up Asian prices while demand typically weakens in the third quarter

Asian PTA prices may start to come under pressure as fresh supply will hit the markets when new major regional plants start production in the third quarter

ldquoMarket sentiment is currently pessimistic about the outlook however this can quickly change if we see a sudden uptick in downstream demandrdquo a China-based producer said

In India JBF Grouprsquos 125m tonneyear PTA unit in Mangalore is expected to start up in the third quarter although the schedule is still fluid according to several market participants

In China Fuhaichuang Petrochemical formerly known as Dragon Aromatics (Zhangzhou) is planning to resume operations at its complex in the third quarter of 2018 after a prolonged shutdown

Its petrochemical complex in Zhangzhou has a 45m tonneyear PTA plant comprisings three 15m tonneyear lines two of which have been in operation since end-2017 The company is likely to restart the third line once smooth operations at its upstream paraxylene (PX) unit at the site is achieved market players said

In Europe Indorama Ventures Portugal plans to start up in July an idled 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Sines Thailand-based Indorama Ventures Ltd acquired the

plant from Portuguese Artlant PTA in late 2017

All these factors should see the narrowing of the price gap between Chinarsquos import and domestic markets as early as July after widening steadily from March to May

As of 12 June the gap stood at $96tonne down from the peak of about $111tonne on 30 May

Asiarsquos PTA prices are currently steady at firm levels Regional end-users preferred to procure cargoes on a need-to basis and were not keen on building inventories

Future movement will depend on market conditions in the downstream polyester industry

The wide price gap in Chinarsquos import and domestic markets has been deterring Chinese buyers from tapping the international spot market for supplies since March while demand was healthy especially in the downstream polyethylene terephthalate (PET) markets

Tight global supply in the first half saw Asian producers shipping out cargoes to the Middle East as well as Europe which was hit by unplanned outages in Belgium and Poland in April

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In Europe BP Chemical on 15 April declared a force majeure at its Belgium PTA unit and a second force majeure on 17 May PKN Orlen on 23 April declared a force majeure at its Wloclawek PTA unit in Poland which was subsequently lifted on 2 May with spot cargoes from the plant limited until after a planned maintenance in SeptemberOctober 2018

Within Asia the southeastern region has had PTA plant outages and had to procure cargoes from the northeast in the preceding two months

Regional supply tightened further with the unexpected shutdown of Hanwha General Chemicalrsquos 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Daesan prompting a force majeure declaration on 21 May

In the first half of 2018 strong growth in demand in the downstream polyester markets in Asia particularly China supported the rally in PTA prices amid tight supply

Downstream polyester markets were enjoying positive margins keeping demand for feedstock PTA healthy

In the key China market operating rates at polyester units were higher compared with the previous year

The countryrsquos PTA production losses in January-June 2018 on the other hand were estimated at around 134m tonnes due to planned and unplanned outages

Asiarsquos PTA producers were largely enjoying healthy margins on the back of steady demand growth in the downstream polyester markets Firmer upstream energy

and feedstock PX prices have also buoyed PTA prices

In January to May 2018 Brent crude traded at $6692-7616bbl up by about 25 year

on year while PX prices were at $938-994tonne representing a 15 increase over the same period

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian purified terephthalic acid (PTA)) markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 23Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPOLYETHYLENE TEREPHTHALATE (PET)

ASIA PET TO REMAIN FIRM IN Q3 AS TIGHT SUPPLY SUPPORT PRICESBy Hazel Goh

Asian polyethylene terephthalate (PET) market is likely to remain firm in the third quarter on the back of tight supply a trend that has supported prices so far in 2018

Recently PET tight supply is a result of production cuts in Asia and Europe that have not had a clear estimated date of resuming normal operations

China Resources Packaging had cut production at its PET lines in Changzhou by 50 following notice from the government to reduce pollution in end-May It is not known for how long the production cuts will remain in place

In Europe there had been feedstock purified terephthalic acid (PTA) supply tightness leading to recent PET production cuts and force majeure by Novapet and JBF respectively

Many buyers had been purchasing on a need-to basis expecting that firm prices are unsustainable and will come down Subsequently they did not stock up cargoes ahead of the peak summer demand season for countries in the northern hemisphere

The reality turned out different and they had to accept higher prices as production cuts kept the supply tight

PET used to track feedstock price movements closely as it had been an oversupplied market and producers typically operate on thin margins

The oversupply situation changed and tightness was first felt in the third quarter of 2017 when plant closures by JBF RAK in the UAE and Belgium and by Mossi amp Ghisolfi (MampG) in the US Mexico and Brazil following financial tightness in the two PET-producing companies

Hurricane Harvey that hit the US in the third quarter led to further production cuts in the US

Back to Quick Navigation | 24Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 1

From then on supply remained tight as the plant under JBF RAK in the UAE and the former MampG plant in the US that had been acquired by Far Eastern remained shut for extended period of time even into 2018

Market players previously had concerns about where China will export its material when final anti-dumping duties (ADD) - heard to be at the same level as thepreliminary duties of 398-530 - wereimposed on its cargoes into Japan inJanuary

Japan was the top exporting destination for Chinese cargoes before the ADD following which the exports dropped drastically

While other producers such as Taiwanese southeast Asian Indian and South Korean producers sold more volumes into Japan Chinese makers sold to other markets that were relinquished by the other producers

Table 1 shows a significant difference between 2016 and 2017 in Chinarsquos export volumes to key destinations from the January-to-March period

Ranked by volume starting with largestvolume as 1

There is an ongoing anti-dumping duty (ADD) investigation by the US on PET cargoes from Brazil Pakistan Indonesia Taiwan and South Korea

The Commerce Department issued the preliminary dumping rates for Indonesia at 1316 South Korea at 881-10141 and Taiwan at 902-1189 in May Final determinations will be issued by 8 November

Even so some producers from the countries under investigation continued to receive buying enquiries from the US amid the current tight supply situation

There will be some upcoming new capacities expected in Q3 as shown in table 2 that may bring about a more balanced supply to meet the demand

The US plant acquired by Far Eastern is estimated to restart in June-July which should also ease the supply tightness

Even with the new capacities and plant restarts market participants think it is unlikely that PET market will return to the oversupply situation seen in the previous years

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian PET markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 25Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 2

Our English-language report coverage includes

Styrene MEG Propylene

BTX Methanol Base Oil

BPA PE MTBE

Phenol PP Mixed AromaticsAcetone Oxo-Alcohol

Trusted industryintelligence for Chinarsquoscommodity marketsDevelopments in Chinarsquos petrochemicals industrycontinue to affect the global marketplace It istherefore vital for domestic and internationalmarket players to keep track of changes withinthe country to know where opportunities lie

ICIS has long been recognised as a reliablesource of information our locally-based expertscompile reports and analyses in English tosupport industry participants dealing with Chinamarkets or seeking to trade or invest

Pricing informationOur pricing data provide key insights into pricetrends in China to support your short-termdecision-making negotiations and analyses

bull Import and export spot and contract pricesbull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity

and upstreamdownstream marketsbull Data on inventory levels and price marginsbull Plant and production news

Petrochemicals Analytics SolutionsProviding our customers with a 360-degree view of the Chinese market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker - real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for thenext 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics - key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock anddo wnstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlooks

Available for key chemical commodities

wwwiciscomchina

Discover how we can meet your market information needs

enquiryiciscom

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESMONOETHYLENE GLYCOL (MEG)

ASIA MEG TO SEE DEMAND TAPERING LOWER SUPPLY IN EARLY H2By Eric Su

The Asian monoethylene glycol (MEG) market could see demand slowing down from the end of June while supply will be reduced from a number of plant turnarounds

Inventories are expected to decline in June after offtake rates at Chinese main ports rose sharply in the last two weeks of May because of an uptick in demand from downstream polyester buyers

Demand for MEG is also expected to remain strong in the first half of June boosted by high polyester production rates of above 85 and modestly low inventory levels

A slowdown in demand may take place in the second half of June as the traditional manufacturing peak period nears its end in July

Meanwhile supply conditions could tighten because of the plant turnarounds in northeast Asia

However supply from the Middle East will likely resume to normal levels given that there were no further delay in shipments in May

MEG prices in Asia have registered year-on-year growth rates in the months to June this year

MEG prices have mostly hovered above $900tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China Main Port (CMP) while prices were mostly below $900tonne CFR CMP in 2017

Prices have been volatile in 2018 with major price swings seen on a near monthly basis since February

MEG prices in first quarter of 2018 continued the uptrend seen in the fourth quarter of 2017 rising to $1030tonne CFR CMP in early March from $922tonne CFR

CMP in late December as the higher-than-expected growth in downstream polyester fuelled bullish market sentiment

Polyester growth in 2017 was estimated at above 10 beating an originally bearish expectation of 2-3

A price downtrend was observed in March with the MEG weekly average price losing nearly 10 of its value to $929tonne CFR CMP by end-March

The price decline coincided with a sharp influx of imported cargoes which was likely a result of over-procurement in January

Back to Quick Navigation | 26Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

and February when prices were trending upwards

March 2018 import volumes rose to nearly 1m tonnes a record three-year high according to official China customs data

MEG prices rebounded in April rising by around 9 from end-March to $1014tonne CFR CMP by end-April ahead of the traditional peak period for the downstream polyester sector The average polyester production rate rose to above 85 during the period

MEG also achieved its to-date weekly peak of $1042tonne CFR CMP in the week ending 20 April

Supply tightness was also observed in the Chinese domestic market because of shipment delays from the Middle East and logistical issues at China main ports over the same period

The lack of availability of prompt cargoes also led to an atypical price spread between April and May delivery parcels

Normally the spread between arrived-at-port and far-term arrival cargoes is at $0-10tonne CFR CMP but this widened to $20-30tonne CFR CMP This drove concerns of sharp price adjustments in May once April deliveries were fulfilled

These concerns came true as MEG prices

began to slide in May MEG weekly prices stood at $928tonne CFR CMP in the last week of May falling from $1003tonne CFR CMP in early May

High inventory levels have also weighed on MEG prices Inventory levels were above 900000 tonnes from early May onward rising to 938000 tonnes by in late March Most market participants deemed inventory levels above 900000 tonnes to be high

The increase in inventory levels in May were largely attributed to the arrival of Middle East shipments which were previously due for arrival in April

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian MEG markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 27Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSETHYLENE

NE ASIA ETHYLENE H2 OUTLOOK HINGES ON NEW SUPPLY SM PLANTBy Yeow Pei Lin

Northeast (NE) Asiarsquos ethylene (C2) second-half 2018 outlook is uncertain as several crackers are scheduled for maintenance but such production losses could be offset by the start up of a new plant and cargoes from outside the region

More than 20 crackers in Asia are slated to undergo maintenance in 2018 with the estimated capacity losses totalling more than 185m tonnes Most of the turnarounds in the first half of the year were concentrated in Japan ndash a key exporter to China

However several more companies are to carry out turnarounds in June and the rest of the year

The impact on the regional balance will depend on the start-up progress of a new facility in South Korea and on whether the strong exports from southeast Asia and Europe in the first half of 2018 will continue

Shipments from Yeosu South Korea will start to slow down in August ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at complexes in that region

Exports will recover by December when Lotte Chemical brings on-stream an added capacity of 200000 tonnesyear at its Yeosu cracker

The facility will undergo an expansion during a turnaround from late September to October

Shipments from Ulsan another petrochemical cluster in South Korea will grow in the second half of 2018

Newcomer S-Oil is expected to begin commercial operations at its residue upgrading complex (RUC) in Onsan in the second half of June

The companyrsquos entire ethylene output of up

to around 200000 tonnesyear is intended for the merchant market as it does not have any downstream plants

Exports from southeast Asian producers will continue to be driven by the higher value from ethylene sales in the ethylene versus polyethylene (PE) trade-off

There will however be supply constraints

Four crackers in the region will undergo

maintenance and the affected producers include ExxonMobil and PTT Global Chemicals (PTTGC) that were regular exporters in the first half of 2018

Exports from Europe will likely be influenced by the performance of the PE sector

The outlook for the PE market in Europe is uncertain given the growing prospect of competitively-priced exports from the new US plants

Back to Quick Navigation | 28Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Ethylene costs in the US have been at low levels since early 2018 as production growth outpaces that for consumption

Since late 2017 about 3m tonnesyear of new ethylene capacity and about 35m tonnesyear of new PE capacity have started up in the US

The new crackers have been running well but several of the new PE plants struggled to reach full operating rates

Exports from Saudi Arabia are expected to be constrained by increased domestic consumption

Petro Rabigh announced in April that the last few plants in its Phase 2 project including a 75000 tonneyear ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) unit have started up

The companyrsquos ethylene exports could fall further in the second half of 2018 following the completion of its PE plant maintenance shutdowns earlier in the year

Chinarsquos import demand is poised for further growth when a new 260000 tonneyear styrene monomer (SM) plant starts up in the third quarter as planned

Anhui Haoyuan Chemical will be operating the unit in Fuyang Anhui on a standalone basis as its plans to build a methanol-to-olefin (MTO) plant have been put on hold amid high methanol prices

The plant will require around 78000 tonnes of ethylene annually to operate at maximum capacity

Based on the above factors it was not immediately clear if the ethylene prices in the second half will follow the volatile trend they displayed in the first five months of 2018

NE Asia spot ethylene prices were volatile from January to May as the impact of a heavy regional cracker turnaround schedule and strong Chinese demand was at times outweighed by strong exports from southeast Asia the Middle East and Europe

The market started the year at above a two and a half year high of $1415tonne CFR (cost amp freight) NE Asia in early January

Subsequent transacted prices fluctuated within a low $1200stonne to mid $1300stonne CFR NE Asia band in the five months ended 31 May

Prices in the first quarter were initially weighed down by ample supply from producers in the Middle East and Asia due to a series of PE plant shutdowns - both planned and unplanned

That was despite strong pre-Lunar New Year holiday restocking activities in China

Demand was bolstered by the start up of a 500000 tonneyear non-integrated SM plant and generally healthy downstream margins for producers outside the PE sector

End-users were also keen to build up their inventories because of the slow progress in their 2018 term contract discussions ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at facilities of key exporters in the region

In addition a major ethylene oxide (EO) maker was seeking more import cargoes following a disruption in supply from its upstream MTO unit The plant was shut twice between late November and the first half of February because of high feedstock methanol costs

The market recovered in early March in line with the start of the annual cracker turnaround season in northeast Asia where

scheduled capacity losses in 2018 will be overall higher than the previous year

That explained why the countryrsquos exports from January to April slumped by 14 year-on-year to 201274 tonnes

In late April northeast Asiarsquos spot prices fell again after a surprisingly large quantity of deep-sea spot cargoes were sold into Asia for delivery between the middle of May and the first half of June

There were at least 55000-60000 tonnes of cargoes from Europe in addition to 11000 tonnes of US supply for that delivery period Europe was in a long position because of derivative maintenance shutdowns and production problems

Continued strong exports from southeast Asia owing to downstream production issues and the weak performance of the linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) market contributed to the downbeat sentiment

The ample supply outweighed Chinarsquos robust import demand

Buying interest in China was strong for April and May arrival cargoes on the back

Back to Quick Navigation | 29Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

of healthy downstream margins for certain downstream markets such as SM EO and monoethylene glycol (MEG)

Ethylene buyers in China were also keen to book deep-sea cargoes to offset the expected regional production losses from cracker turnarounds

Prices rebounded quickly in mid-May

aided by a bullish SM market and reduced domestic supply

Some MTO operators lowered production in May as high feedstock methanol costs led to squeezed margins while a key producer in east China lowered its cracker run rates unexpectedly

Sharp increases in feedstock naphtha costs

which tracked gains on crude oil futures also helped set a floor to the earlier price declines

By early June spot ethylene prices had touched a 20-week high raising questions on whether the market will see similar price volatility in the second half of 2018

Producers will turn hawkish if the outlook for crude and naphtha markets remains upbeat

Back to Quick Navigation | 30Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSPROPYLENE

TIGHT NE ASIA PROPYLENE SUPPLY TO LIMIT H2 PRICE FLUCTUATIONSBy Joson Ng

Tight propylene (C3) supply in northeast Asia amid a heavy turnaround schedule in 2018 will continue supporting regional prices of the material into the second half

Sellers are likely to continue passing on firmer costs to buyers which are wary of October when heavy propylene production losses are expected

Buyersrsquo resistance in the key China market would keep any further increase in propylene prices in check with some downstream producers considering cutting output due to high feedstock costs

At the start of June propylene prices have weakened ending the strong general uptrend since end-March amid weakness in Chinarsquos domestic market as demand softened due to turnarounds at downstream polypropylene (PP) plants

However the downward pressure on regional prices may be temporary as overall supply in Asia is expected to be tight

In early June spot propylene prices in northeast Asia were about 9 higher from the start of 2018 according to ICIS data

The year started on a bullish note fuelled by a heavier cracker turnaround schedule compared with 2017 and higher premium levels concluded for contract cargoes

The uptrend was sustained into February due to restocking activities in various import markets in northeast Asia before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February

Before the holidays some South Korean producers were convinced the market will experience supply shortage as both GS Caltexrsquos fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity and Yeochun NCCrsquos (YNCC) cracker ndash which can produce 280000 tonnesyear of propylene ndash were due for maintenance in February through to April

But propylene prices surprisingly weakened from 9 February to end-March without demand support from Chinarsquos weak PP market which struggled through sluggish sales and high inventory after the countryrsquos week-long Lunar New Year holiday

A renewed wave of scheduled turnarounds at regional plants tightened supply and drove up propylene prices in April and May

In Taiwan Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) took its residue fluid catalytic

Back to Quick Navigation | 31Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

cracking (RFCC) unit with a 350000 tonneyear propylene capacity off stream from 1 March to mid-April while CPC Corp shut its 100000 tonneyear FCC unit on 10 April and restarted in early June

In South Korea GS Caltex also had a turnaround at its FCC unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity from 19 February to 5 April

SK Advanced shut its propane dehydrogenated (PDH) unit with 600000 tonneyear propylene capacity on 21 April to early May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian propylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 32Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

To talk to someone about price forecast reports call the numbers below or email us at salesukiciscomAsia-Pacific Europe Africa and Middle East The AmericasTel +65 6789 8828 Tel +44 20 8652 3335 Tel +1 713 525 2600 or Toll free +1 888 525 3255 (US and Canada only)

ICIS price forecast reportsSupply demand and price trends at a glance

ICIS price forecast reports provide a clear view of prices and supply and demand trends for the next 12 months Packed with vital information the report includes everything you need to assess where the market is heading and the impact or opportunity that presents for your business

To find out more or take a trial visit wwwiciscompriceforecast

Price Forecast Window

ICIS price forecasts are now available on the Dashboard channel using the Price Forecast Window which will enable users to

n Chart the price forecast against the last (rolling) twelve months of related price history

n Plot the last 12 months to view forecast progression and ICIS forecast accuracy

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How price forecast reports can help youn Understand the marketUse ICIS price forecast reports to understand where the market is heading and identify the risks and the opportunities for your business What are the major demand developments for your product n Safeguard commercial decisionsUse market information to make better-informed business decisions relating to supply and demand Learn about changes in market capacities What factors will affect supply for you n Budgeting and planningWhether you are planning how much you will be spending in the short-to medium or even long term use the price forecast reports to help assess future prices for your product What will the price of your product be in six monthsrsquo time

Price forecast reports currently

available

Available as price forecast windows only

Polypropylene

Polyethylene

Benzene

StyrenePolystyrene

Methanol

Ethylene

Propylene

Styrene

Asia Europe US Global

3

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3

3

3

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OLEFINSBUTADIENE

ASIA BD TO FLUCTUATE IN H2 AS SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE SHIFTSBy Helen Yan

Asiarsquos butadiene (BD) spot prices for July shipments are likely to face downward pressure but any price downtrend is likely to reverse when cracker turnarounds start to kick in from September onwards

BD prices are expected to be weighed down before seeing support again in the third quarter as the supply and demand balance shifts during this period

The fourth quarter will likely see support for BD prices although the increases may be tempered by resistance from the downstream synthetic rubber (SR) makers to any significant price hikes

The busy cracker turnaround season in September-November will likely see supply tightening at the same time that demand is expected to pick up during this period

Several crackers and BD units including South Korearsquos Lotte Chemical LG Chem and Chinarsquos Shanghai Secco and Maoming Petrochemical are scheduled to shut during

the September to November time frame

In the near term BD spot prices are likely to continue to trend lower as demand wanes while supply at the same time is expected to lengthen due to an influx of deep-sea cargoes and regional cracker restarts

More than 15000 tonnes of deep-sea cargoes from EU are expected to arrive in Asia in June and July at the same time that crackers in Asia including Indiarsquos Haldia Petrochemical and Indonesiarsquos Chandra Asri resume their production following their maintenance shutdowns

On 8 June spot prices fell to $1725tonne CFR (cost amp freight) northeast (NE) Asia the second consecutive week of decline after spiralling upwards in the two months since early April

BD spot prices had increased by more than 40 since early April peaking at $1800tonne CFR NE Asia on 25 May

Strong demand from derivative acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) makers which were running their plants at optimal rates had bolstered the BD price upsurge during this period

However derivative styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) and polybutadiene rubber (PBR) producers the key consumers of BD cut their production output given the continued erosion in margins

Several major SBR and PBR producers said their margins had fallen into negative territory and retreated from the BD spot market in June

Chinese spot appetite in particular tapered off as domestic BD prices were lower compared with the US dollar-denominated import prices

In China Hangzhou Zhechen Jilin Petrochemical Zhejiang Transfar and Shen Hua Chemical were some of the SBR and PBR plants that are shut for maintenance in June and July

Several SBR and PBR plants in Taiwan and South Korea were also running at lower rates following the 40 BD price spike in the two months from early April to end-May

In South Korea major SR producer Korea Kumho Petrochemical PC was running its SBR and PBR plants at reduced rates

Back to Quick Navigation | 33Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian butadiene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 34Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Similarly Taiwanrsquos TSRC also cut the production output of its SBR and PBR plants

The outlook for the fourth quarter is expected to see a different turn of events with SBR and PBR plants resuming their production and ramping up their operating rates while supply during the last quarter is expected to tighten from the heavy cracker turnaround season

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYETHYLENE (PE)

SOUTHEAST ASIA PE MARKET FACES LONGER H2 SUPPLY WEAK DEMANDBy Felita Widjaja

Southeast Asiarsquos polyethylene (PE) market may be facing longer supply in the second half hinging on how the US-China trade spat plays out amid the regionrsquos weakening demand for imports

Global PE trade flows will be affected should China the biggest importer of spot PE cargoes in the world decide to impose retaliatory 25 tariff on US cargoes

Southeast Asia as an alternative buying region might be hard pressed to absorb additional supply from the US where massive PE capacities recently started up which were meant to cater to huge Chinese demand

Around 5m tonnes of additional US PE capacities are expected from several major projects including those in the pipeline to start up within the second half of 2018

China primarily imports PE cargoes from Asia and the Middle East while the US is its sixth leading PE supplier in 2017

ldquoEventually more substantial and regular volume of US [PE] cargoes are expected to be traded in Asia in the second half of the year as we have yet to see them in the first half of this yearrdquo said a regional trader

Any changes in trade flows would pose challenges to US suppliers in the short term as they would need to revamp their logistics and distribution channels to redirect cargoes to other markets

Suppliers from the Middle East meanwhile might take the opportunity to supply more cargoes to China and would mean fewer volumes available to the southeast Asian market

The Middle East is southeast Asiarsquos major PE supplier

Demand for PE imports in southeast Asia has been weak amid lower prices in

Back to Quick Navigation | 35Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

the domestic markets as in the case of Thailand

ldquoThai traders are not keen to import as local prices are more competitive so they do not have the margin to sell the imported cargoes in local market Only some converters who need specific cargoes continue to importrdquo said a local Thai trader

Malaysia and Indonesia with predominantly Muslim populations have seen market activity slow down since mid-May when the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan started Ramadan ends with the Eid ul-Fitr holiday on 15 June

The Indonesian government has declared a longer Eid-ul Fitr holiday this year from 11-20 June

Markets in Singapore and the Philippines will be closed for the mid-June holiday as well

With supply expected to become long some market players expect regional PE prices in July and August to ease from

June with restocking activities expected to kick in towards the end of the third quarter

In the first half of 2018 southeast Asiarsquos average prices for commodity PE were largely stable to firm owing to suppliersrsquo relatively comfortable-to-tight supply for most of the period

At the start of June high density polyethylene (HDPE) film grade prices averaged $1395tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia while linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) film were at $1210tonne CFR SE Asia and $1265tonne CFR SE Asia respectively according to ICIS data

Prices had spiked in the first quarter as suppliers were holding comfortable-to-tight inventory as several regional producers have scheduled turnarounds at their plants in March Production issues and shutdowns in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia also limited availability of imports to southeast Asia during this period

Supply for HDPE film was particularly tight as some producers from the Middle East as well as Asia switched their focus into making HDPE pipe grade amid robust demand and better netbacks

The price uptrend across most PE grades could not be sustained in the second quarter although prices remained relatively stable-to-firm

The depreciation of local currencies in southeast Asia against the US dollar in most of the second quarter was also curbing overall demand for imports A weaker currency makes US dollar-denominated imports expensive

ldquoIndonesian buyers have not been buying much cargoes as the market slowed down during Ramadan and also because of weak rupiah which led the central bank to increase interest rate to limit the depreciationrdquo said a regional producer

CHINA PE IMPORTS TO STAY STRONG AMID DOMESTIC PLANT TURNAROUNDS By Angie Li

Chinarsquos polyethylene (PE) imports are expected to remain strong for the rest of the year after posting record volumes in January to April 2018 amid scheduled turnarounds at domestic facilities

Buyers in China have been accumulating imported PE cargoes as these were priced lower compared futures prices since the start of the year

More cargoes will be available to China as new capacities in the US are expected to boost production

For the month of May the countryrsquos PE imports are projected to reach 12m tonnes higher than the monthly average in the first four months of 2018

In January to April 2018 its PE imports volumes totaled 447m tonnes up by 12 from the previous corresponding period according to industry sources

The import volumes were making up for the production losses in the domestic market due to scheduled turnarounds

On 1 June low density PE (LDPE) imports were assessed at $1155-1180tonne linear low density PE (LLDPE) stood at $1150-1170tonne while high density PE (HDPE) film products were at $1340-1400tonne according to ICIS data

The prices have increased 15-62 from end-March but the gains came in lower than market playersrsquo expectations considering the heavy production loss due to turnarounds from April

Back to Quick Navigation | 36Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

An estimated 500000 tonnes are expected to be shaved in the second quarter due to scheduled maintenance at domestic facilities according ICIS data

ldquoWe thought the hefty plant turnarounds in the second quarter should lead to a surge in PE prices but the LDPE and LLDPE prices were less than satisfactory although HDPE prices [were] highrdquo said an east China-based trader referring to both the import and domestic PE prices

Strong imports amid hedging activities bloated the total supply in China in January to April to 998m tonnes up by 8 from the previous corresponding period with supply of LDPE and LLDPE up by 14 and 8 respectively market sources said

Imports of HDPE inched up by 2 over the same period given the gradersquos comparatively higher prices compared with LLDPE and LDPE

Increased availability due to recent capacity expansions and start-ups in Asia the Middle East also fuels Chinarsquos appetite for import cargoes

In the first quarter of 2018 additional cargoes from Saudi Arabia were mostly from Sadara Chemical which started up its 750000 tonneyear swing plant and 350000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Al Jubail during late 2016 and early 2017 respectively

Cargoes of Iran origin augmented the total volume from the UAE as market players try to go around the financial sanctions on Tehran Kordestan Petrochemicalrsquos 300000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Iran came on stream in March 2017

UAErsquos Borouge has also ramped up pipe and HDPE film exports to China during the period according to a supplier in the Middle East

Meanwhile PE imports from Singapore surged 38 year on year while those from India more than doubled to 127000 tonnes according to China Customs data

The ban on waste plastics implemented in China in the year also bolstered imports of virgin PE Some waste plastics processed overseas and then re-entered the market as virgin products but these volumes were limited

Last year China has imported 194m tonnes of PE waste plastics while

volumes in 2018 will be negligible with the implemention of the ban

Chinarsquos PE production this year is expected to increase by around 7 to about 17m tonnes in 2018 with imports projected to grow by 102 to around 13m tonnes according to a source from state-owned petrochemical giant PetroChina

Domestic demand for PE on the other hand is forecast to grow by 8 this year mainly from the packaging and pipe markets

Chinarsquos ongoing campaign to switch to using gas for power generation instead of coal is expected to continue boosting demand for PE gas pipes this year

The packaging industry will also drive up PE consumption underpinned by growth in electronic commerce Chinarsquos express delivery volumes reached 137bn packages during January-April 2018 based on data from the recent China Express Industry Development Conference in May

Back to Quick Navigation | 37Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 38Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

By Jonathan Lopez

ICIS NewsThe leading news service for real-time ground breaking news and analysis on the global petrochemicals markets

The ICIS News services give you unrivalled access to the most in-depth stories impacting the petrochemicals markets influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions

Our team of global editors are reporting around the clock to bring you the latest news and analysis so that you get the full picture of market and pricing developments first providing you with invaluable foresight to take advantage of every opportunity and to stay ahead of your competitors

With ICIS News you will be the first to read

Breaking news on the chemical markets that will impact your business

News on market moves deals and announcements that will affect your organisation

Force majeures closures and developments that influence your commodity prices

Expert analysis on industry trends and hot topics ndash know whatrsquos happening and why

Searchable archive with over 14 million articles from the past 10 years

Chemical Business News Base (CBNB) is a premium resource available on ICIS News It provides you with an extensive external source of upstream and downstream petrochemical news in summarised snapshots so you can quickly and easily get the latest updates on whatrsquos important to you

CBNB offers readers

Fast and consistent coverage on news facts figures from the upstream and downstream petrochemicals industry

Access to over 700 news sources including technical and trade journals company literature market research reports stockbroker reports books and directories

User-friendly search functionality to find articles most relevant to you from around the globe

Quick and easy-to-read summarised snapshots of articles with option to access full articles from the original source

ICIS Chemical Business digital magazine (ICB) Our global team of experts digests and summarises the key issues and their potential impact on the chemical markets offering a comprehensive overview of the key developments that matter most-along with informed opinion and in-depth analysis

ICB features include

In-depth insight into chemical price changes and their impact on the markets

Understand the detail behind the headline news stories

Find out about supply amp demand trends and the factors impacting them

Get the complete picture of the chemical markets ndash all in one e-magazine

Easy access via e-magazine and premium magazine website

Find out more wwwiciscomnews

ICIS News offers access to additional sources including the ICIS Chemical Business Magazine and Chemical Business News Base (CBNB)

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYPROPYLENE (PP)

SE ASIA PP PRICES MAY COME UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 AS SUPPLY LENGTHENSBy Leanne Tan

Southeast Asiarsquos polypropylene (PP) market may come under pressure in the second half of the year on account of lengthening regional supply and weak downstream demand

Spot prices have been on the rise for most of May buoyed by bullish sentiment in the Chinese market and firm upstream feedstock costs

Margins for PP makers have been lower on average compared with levels in the previous year

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refinery amp Petrochemicals is scheduled to start up its 400000 tonneyear PP production unit in the third quarter The project was initially scheduled to start up in the first quarter of 2018

While domestic demand will continue to outstrip local production the countryrsquos reliance on imports may be diminished when the new plant starts up

Converters in the country have been opting to keep inventories lean in the short term amid expectations that prices may eventually weaken when more domestic supply becomes available

ldquoBuyers donrsquot want to buy too much import cargoes now not just because prices are high but also because there will be more locally-produced materials very soonrdquo a Vietnamese trader said

In Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan is expected to start commercial production at its expanded PP facility in Pasir Gudang in June or July The plantrsquos capacity will be raised by 200000 tonnesyear from 400000 tonnesyear

Import availabilities from South Korea are expected to lengthen in the medium-to-long term with S-Oil expected to complete an olefin downstream complex (ODC) at its Onsan refinery in Ulsan which will include a

405000 tonneyear PP capacity

On the demand front weakness is likely to persist in the second half with converters and end-users likely to continue buying spot cargoes on a hand-to-mouth basis

Indonesiarsquos demand in particular has been below expectations since the start of 2018 and this is likely to continue in the second half of the year according to market players

Back to Quick Navigation | 39Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Some players said import demand for dutiable cargoes may increase in the second half of the year as this is typically when the government issues duty exemption facilities

The duty exemption facilities are issued on a yearly basis which enable converters to import some PP volumes without extra cost

In Malaysia the removal of the 6 goods and services tax (GST) so far has had no immediate impact on the PP market although there are some expectations the move could potentially boost demand in the consumer market further down the road

In Vietnam demand for PP flat yarn has entered a seasonal lull from May to early July and will not pick up until August when the summer harvest begins

PP is widely used in the manufacture of woven sacks (for rice sacks) flexible packaging carpets household appliances and automotive parts

Spot PP prices in southeast Asia have been an uptrend for most of the first half

The PP market begun the year on a bullish note with spot prices surging by almost 10 over the course of two months all-origins PP flat yarn prices peaked at $1295tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia on 2 March

Healthy demand in China helped to provide support to spot prices in southeast Asia in the first quarter with a tight global spot supply leading to further price escalations

Some suppliers pulled back from the southeast Asian spot market to capitalise on better netbacks in other countries including Japan and Pakistan leading to further curtailed spot availability in southeast Asia

The market rally started to lose steam in early March amid subdued demand and a build-up of domestic inventories in China after the Lunar New Year holidays

The bearish sentiment soon spilled over into southeast Asia with Chinese suppliers pushing some volumes into southeast Asia amid an open arbitrage window

Vietnam remains the market of choice for Chinese exporters and PP import prices in the country plummeted as the result of the lengthened spot availability

However the bearish run was short-lived and prices soon bottomed out in early April

Bullish momentum in the upstream crude and naphtha markets propelled spot prices of polymers higher

Despite lacklustre downstream demand price hikes in April and May were commonplace as producers sought higher asking prices in view of narrower margins

TIGHT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT CHINA PP MARKET DESPITE WEAK DEMANDBy Dora Xue

Tight supply would buoy up Chinarsquos polypropylene (PP) prices in the near term despite weak downstream demand

The market is expecting heavy production losses following recent unexpected outages at five domestic facilities from May and scheduled turnarounds at other plants

In the week ended on 1 June domestic prices for PP flat yarn in east China were assessed at Chinese yuan (CNY) 9075tonne after a steady increase from early April according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos import prices for the same material stood at $1245tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China largely tracking movement in the domestic market over the past two months according to ICIS data

The strong PP prices have also started to deter buyers from purchasing more spot cargoes

ldquoPP prices are too high We donrsquot want to store too much in our warehouserdquo a buyer said

Downstream demand typically goes on a lull in June and July but any downward pressure on prices will be negated by a further tightening of supply as major plants will be taken off line for maintenance

ldquoWhen the maintenance season finishes in late June [PP] prices may start to go downrdquo a trader said

Demand is considered weakest at Qingdao in the eastern Shandong province due to government-mandated production cuts and logistics restrictions ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (SCO Summit) on 9-10 June

As of 1 June the combined polyolefin inventories of Chinese petrochemical majors Sinopec and PetroChina have declined back to normal levels of 700000 tonnes from a high of 1m tonnes in early March market sources said

Import supply to China may not improve in the short term as suppliers still deem other

Back to Quick Navigation | 40Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

Back to Quick Navigation | 43Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

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increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

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PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

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bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

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DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

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bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

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Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 15: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

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Cargoes hitting Chinarsquos shores were not sufficient to meet the countryrsquos growing appetite for SM particularly as the Q3 manufacturing for exports season was fast approaching

Downstream producers however were struggling to pass on rising feedstock costs to their buyers

Thinning margins have led to some mulling lowering operating rates at its resin plants

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Live Supply Disruption TrackerPlant outages and maintenance for the next 12 months plus the impact of capacity changes

3 Pre-empt competition and capitalise on trades impacted by outages

3 Be aware of market shortages with a real-time view to manage risk and ensure security of stock

3 Negotiate better prices with other market players

Supply amp Demand OutlooksQuarterly global supply and demand review and outlook for key value chains and regions

3 Support your short-term strategy with upstream and downstream market sentiment and expectations for the current quarter at a regional level

3 Expand opportunities in international trade3 Understand at-a-glance the regional supply and

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Price Drivers AnalyticsCross-commodity and cross-regional analysis of importexport parity substitution trends and feedstockdownstream spreads

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AROMATICSTOLUENE

CHINA IMPORTS TO UNDERPIN ASIA TOLUENE MARKET IN H2 2018By Trixie Yap

Asiarsquos toluene market direction in the second half of this year will be determined by the buying activity from Chinese importers which has been the key factor influencing its prices so far in 2018

FOB (free on board) Korea prices which have been fluctuating in a wider-than-expected range for the past month closed at $760-785tonne in the week ended 1 June for June and July-loading parcels

The decreases at the close on 1 June marked the end of three weeksrsquo worth of stable-to-firm price trend

This followed weaker import demand from China for July which mainly stemmed from the ending of traders replenishing shore tank inventories at eastern ports such as Jiangsu

CFR (cost amp freight) China prices were in a sideways trend for most parts of early 2018 up to March at $690-765tonne

Prices only picked up after April and hit a peak of $835tonne CFR China after fluctuating in the $700-710tonne CFR China range for a few weeks

Unlike earlier expectations when market players were hoping for Chinese import demand to peak after the post early-March Lunar New Year period CFR China buying activity remained muted and only rose after May because of improved demand from the gasoline blenders

Blending demand received a boost because of lower gasoline production from state-owned refineries amid a spate of turnarounds in China ndash mainly in the eastern regions ndash starting end April to June

The better blending economics for toluene in early May particularly for the oil majors paved the way for demand as well

Back to Quick Navigation | 15Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Toluene-isomer xylenes spread on an ex-tank basis was wider with toluene being much more price friendly for gasoline production as compared to isomer xylene

With the 1 May implementation of a new online tax-filing system for oil and chemical products oil majors had no choice but to buy blend stocks themselves

Back to Quick Navigation | 16Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

instead of gasoline cargoes directly as the government was effectively making private gasoline blending activities unworkable as these blenders will not be able to potentially avoid tax payments via the paper filing system now

The presence of higher-than-expected inventories at east China main ports ndash stock levels hit a high of 76700 tonnes in early March ndash contributed further to the later timing of import demand Inventories only fell significantly after April (see chart above)

The only key issue hampering import demand from improving further was the

generally weak off taking activities from the downstream chemical sectors as isocynates benzoic acid benzyl chloride and other types of solvent products

The downstream demand was hampered because of low and unchanged operating rates because of stricter environmental regulations imposed by the government since second-half 2017

Looking ahead however the bleak demand situation for toluene from the chemical downstream sector could reverse soon starting August-September because of Wan Hua Chemicalrsquos new TDI plant start-up

The TDI plantsrsquo nameplate capacity is currently 300000 tonnesyear which could equate to around 160000 tonnesyear of toluene usage according to several market players

While this may not directly represent an increase in demand for CFR China import toluene cargoes it is likely to boost domestic toluene demand within north China particularly Shandong region and allow for potential arbitrage flows within the country

This in turn may support import parity of yuan-denominated ex-tank prices and allow for healthy distributor margins ndash if they consider to buy CFR China cargoes which is a key driver for majority of these import buyers

Market participants in China were quick to note also that supply increments ndash following at least three new plant start-ups this year ndash will outpace demand increments whichcould pose a problem in determining whichwill have a larger impact on import demandand prices

ldquoThe additional capacities may not be sold into the merchant market because there will still be captive usage since these producers are refineries with gasoline requirements and fulfilmentsrdquo one east China-based trader said

Ultimately it will be dependent on how the internal consumption for gasoline ndash of these new start-ups ndash will pan out leading up to the year-end

Changes in average operating rates of state-owned refineries due to turnarounds or outages will be another direction driver

Aside from China demand-supply fundamentals the other key price driver is the supply balance within Asia

Supply has been generally long between January and May owing to the stable operating plant rates and overall sufficient availability in southeast Asia a key net exporter within the region

Availability of northeast Asian cargoes was curtailed at some points in time ndash particularly in February and March ndashbecause of turnarounds

Back to Quick Navigation | 17Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 18Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

However supply has been steadily rising for cargoes loading in May and June ndash with the market seeing an additional of close to 30000 tonnes of product from South Korea alone ndash as some downstream plants had ongoing shutdown plans all the way till early July (see right)

All of these cargoes as expected are heading to China because of the opened arbitrage window for exports during the same time period

The increment in excess spot supply from South Korea ndash going forward ndash will be driven by downstream spreads for TDP operators since the benzene-toluene spreads have been narrowing consistently from March when the spreads hit a peak

The healthy spreads between toluene and xylenes (para and isomer) have been the only saving grace for the TDP market

ldquoBenzene demand-supply fundamentals are likely to continue remaining weak with increments in supply still expected from Middle East and Vietnam from June so that is going to still put pressure on TDP operators whether to run their unit with more toluene or less toluene [since they can adjust the amount of feedstock]rdquo one northeast Asian end-user said

ldquoBenzene demand-supply fundamentals are likely to continue remaining weak with increments in supply still expected from Middle East and Vietnam from June so that is going to still put pressure on TDP operators whether to run their unit with more toluene or less toluene [since they can adjust the amount of feedstock]rdquo one northeast Asian end-user said

There is also hope that supply will be curbed again in the autumn season ndash when several plants start their planned maintenances ndash to provide a temporary relief to the readily sufficient spot availability

Ultimately if Chinarsquos importing activity continues to be robust there will be no issues with them soaking up the excess supplies at any point of time

ldquoThe key issue is how much these buyers can procure and how long their buying activities can last but so far it has been very sporadic and capped to short time frames because of them being risk averserdquo one southeast Asian trader said

Back to Quick Navigation | 19Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

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PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian toluene markets

BASE OILSBASE OILS

ASIA MIDEAST BASE OILS FIRM IN H1 BUT SOME PULLBACK LIKELY IN H2By Jasmine Khoo amp Izham Ahmad

Asia base oils Group I SN150 and Group II 150N prices are expected to remain firm on persistently low supply whereas the heavy grades - Group I SN500 and Group II 500600N - could come under pressure on ample availability

Into the second half of the year base oils supply from Iran are expected to be stable with no known maintenance plans due over the following few months from June and that could add further pressure on prices amid the weak demand outlook

Only one Iranian refiner is due for a maintenance shutdown in the second half of the year possibly sometime in September according to market sources

In Group II like in Asia short supply of 150N and 500600N is expected to support prices in coming months but the Group II segment in the Middle East is a much smaller market for producers

Major Group II and III producers in Saudi Arabia Qatar Bahrain and UAE also continue to focus on their traditional markets outside of the Middle East due to stronger demand and higher margins

Brightstock remained largely stable for June in terms of pricing following deals done at parity with Mayrsquos levels but market players maintained a cautious stance towards brightstock pricing which would typically see downward pressure towards the end of the year

The winter season in parts of Asia would typically herald a period of slow cargo uptake for brightstock as transportation logistics get more challenging

As for Group III base oils northeast Asian-origin lots are expected to see support in spot prices from June as seen from healthy uptake among buyers amid short supply from regional suppliers

Similarly in the Middle East market Group I prices started the year on a firm note

Around mid-February SN500 prices traded up to $80750tonne FOB (free on board) Iran their highest levels since ICIS began tracking the data in November 2015

SN150 also traded their record highs about the same time hitting $72750tonne FOB Iran

These record highs were held until early May despite buyers at the time showing increasing resistance to the higher levels and the uncertainty that took hold of the market ahead of a deadline for the US to decide on whether it would remain in the Iran nuclear deal

On 8 May US president Donald Trump announced that the US will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal and re-impose sanctions on Tehran consequently driving up crude prices to new highs since late 2014

Iranrsquos base oils prices were largely stable in that week but market outlook has been clouded with uncertainties following the USrsquo decision to re-impose sanctions on the country

Group I SN500 prices were stable through the early half of May at $780-805tonne FOB Iran while Group I SN150 were holding at $710-745tonne FOB Iran since early-February according to ICIS data

Prices began to decline around mid-May when it became more apparent that the increased sanctions would cause at least some disruptions to business dealings with Iranian entities

Market players said they encountered difficulties in financial transactions with Iran and many financial institutions were reluctant to take on any dealings involving Iran-based businesses for fear of conflicting with the US sanctions

On the supply side market players in the UAE said there were sufficient cargoes built up over recent months and as such

there was less demand for further spot deals in Group I particularly with the threat of renewed sanctions

Mid-May also marked the start of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan which is a typically slow season for the Middle East

Certain manufacturing activities are reduced as factories observed shorter operating hours and as many workers took some vacation time as well

The Eid ul-Fitr long holidays followed the end of Ramadan in mid-June

Asiarsquos base oils market trends for certain widely-traded Group I grades snapped out of persistent uptrend in late April against a backdrop of increasingly squeezed buyersrsquo margins and waning demand

Steady gains in FOB Asia spot prices were recorded since September 2017 on the back of regional shortages as demand surpassed output

This was partly fuelled by natural disasters in the US when Hurricane Harvey disrupted between 20 and 25 of the countryrsquos refining capacity in August

The disruption to base oils production at some units led to increased appetite for deep-sea shipments from Asia to the US

In the current market SN500 prices registered the greatest drops among the ICIS assessed grades shedding slightly more than 12 of its spot pricing between 13 April and 25 May ICIS data showed

Market participants attributed the price dip to lackluster demand brought about by a supply overhang of domestically-produced SN400 in the local Chinese market

Competitive pricing of SN400 amid ample availability curtailed import appetite among China-based buyers for SN500 of Asian origin especially since some buyers were still holding on to sufficient stocks for the near term

Back to Quick Navigation | 20Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Brightstock prices also softened reflecting increasingly squeezed buyersrsquo margins following steep gains seen from 22 September 2017 to 23 March 2018 in FOB Asia export prices

Some buyers were also sitting on sufficient inventories from active procurement earlier in the year leading to waned demand

This led refiners and traders to cut offers to encourage cargo uptake for May shipment cargoes

Group II 150N and 500600N prices largely held up on the back of potential supply woes in the summer season amid scheduled shutdowns at major Asian refineries

Taiwanrsquos Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) is expected to conduct planned maintenance in July market sources said

This led market players to hold on to expectations of buoyed spot prices for Group II base oils in the near term though significant increase is not expected for certain grades such as 500600N amid ample spot availability in the region

Group III 4 and 6cst base oils largely continued their steady price uptrend reflecting short supply among key South Korean Group III suppliers

8cst base oils of northeast Asian origin amid comparatively greater availability than its lighter counterparts saw less gains in prices since the beginning of 2018

South Korean-origin Group III base oils prices were mostly buoyant despite an influx of Middle East-origin Group III base oils into the northeast Asian market since November 2017 as South Korean-origin Group III users adhered largely to using the same material due to formulation restrictions and related OEM approvals

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian base oils markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 21Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPURIFIED TEREPHTHALIC ACID (PTA)

ASIA PTA SUPPLY TO LENGTHEN IN H2 ON INDIA CHINA PLANT START-UPSBy Samuel Wong

Supply of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in Asia is expected to lengthen in the second half of 2018 as new capacities will start up in the major markets of India and China amid a slowdown in demand

Major plants would have resumed production after unplanned outages to ease the current global supply tightness that has been driving up Asian prices while demand typically weakens in the third quarter

Asian PTA prices may start to come under pressure as fresh supply will hit the markets when new major regional plants start production in the third quarter

ldquoMarket sentiment is currently pessimistic about the outlook however this can quickly change if we see a sudden uptick in downstream demandrdquo a China-based producer said

In India JBF Grouprsquos 125m tonneyear PTA unit in Mangalore is expected to start up in the third quarter although the schedule is still fluid according to several market participants

In China Fuhaichuang Petrochemical formerly known as Dragon Aromatics (Zhangzhou) is planning to resume operations at its complex in the third quarter of 2018 after a prolonged shutdown

Its petrochemical complex in Zhangzhou has a 45m tonneyear PTA plant comprisings three 15m tonneyear lines two of which have been in operation since end-2017 The company is likely to restart the third line once smooth operations at its upstream paraxylene (PX) unit at the site is achieved market players said

In Europe Indorama Ventures Portugal plans to start up in July an idled 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Sines Thailand-based Indorama Ventures Ltd acquired the

plant from Portuguese Artlant PTA in late 2017

All these factors should see the narrowing of the price gap between Chinarsquos import and domestic markets as early as July after widening steadily from March to May

As of 12 June the gap stood at $96tonne down from the peak of about $111tonne on 30 May

Asiarsquos PTA prices are currently steady at firm levels Regional end-users preferred to procure cargoes on a need-to basis and were not keen on building inventories

Future movement will depend on market conditions in the downstream polyester industry

The wide price gap in Chinarsquos import and domestic markets has been deterring Chinese buyers from tapping the international spot market for supplies since March while demand was healthy especially in the downstream polyethylene terephthalate (PET) markets

Tight global supply in the first half saw Asian producers shipping out cargoes to the Middle East as well as Europe which was hit by unplanned outages in Belgium and Poland in April

Back to Quick Navigation | 22Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

In Europe BP Chemical on 15 April declared a force majeure at its Belgium PTA unit and a second force majeure on 17 May PKN Orlen on 23 April declared a force majeure at its Wloclawek PTA unit in Poland which was subsequently lifted on 2 May with spot cargoes from the plant limited until after a planned maintenance in SeptemberOctober 2018

Within Asia the southeastern region has had PTA plant outages and had to procure cargoes from the northeast in the preceding two months

Regional supply tightened further with the unexpected shutdown of Hanwha General Chemicalrsquos 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Daesan prompting a force majeure declaration on 21 May

In the first half of 2018 strong growth in demand in the downstream polyester markets in Asia particularly China supported the rally in PTA prices amid tight supply

Downstream polyester markets were enjoying positive margins keeping demand for feedstock PTA healthy

In the key China market operating rates at polyester units were higher compared with the previous year

The countryrsquos PTA production losses in January-June 2018 on the other hand were estimated at around 134m tonnes due to planned and unplanned outages

Asiarsquos PTA producers were largely enjoying healthy margins on the back of steady demand growth in the downstream polyester markets Firmer upstream energy

and feedstock PX prices have also buoyed PTA prices

In January to May 2018 Brent crude traded at $6692-7616bbl up by about 25 year

on year while PX prices were at $938-994tonne representing a 15 increase over the same period

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian purified terephthalic acid (PTA)) markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 23Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPOLYETHYLENE TEREPHTHALATE (PET)

ASIA PET TO REMAIN FIRM IN Q3 AS TIGHT SUPPLY SUPPORT PRICESBy Hazel Goh

Asian polyethylene terephthalate (PET) market is likely to remain firm in the third quarter on the back of tight supply a trend that has supported prices so far in 2018

Recently PET tight supply is a result of production cuts in Asia and Europe that have not had a clear estimated date of resuming normal operations

China Resources Packaging had cut production at its PET lines in Changzhou by 50 following notice from the government to reduce pollution in end-May It is not known for how long the production cuts will remain in place

In Europe there had been feedstock purified terephthalic acid (PTA) supply tightness leading to recent PET production cuts and force majeure by Novapet and JBF respectively

Many buyers had been purchasing on a need-to basis expecting that firm prices are unsustainable and will come down Subsequently they did not stock up cargoes ahead of the peak summer demand season for countries in the northern hemisphere

The reality turned out different and they had to accept higher prices as production cuts kept the supply tight

PET used to track feedstock price movements closely as it had been an oversupplied market and producers typically operate on thin margins

The oversupply situation changed and tightness was first felt in the third quarter of 2017 when plant closures by JBF RAK in the UAE and Belgium and by Mossi amp Ghisolfi (MampG) in the US Mexico and Brazil following financial tightness in the two PET-producing companies

Hurricane Harvey that hit the US in the third quarter led to further production cuts in the US

Back to Quick Navigation | 24Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 1

From then on supply remained tight as the plant under JBF RAK in the UAE and the former MampG plant in the US that had been acquired by Far Eastern remained shut for extended period of time even into 2018

Market players previously had concerns about where China will export its material when final anti-dumping duties (ADD) - heard to be at the same level as thepreliminary duties of 398-530 - wereimposed on its cargoes into Japan inJanuary

Japan was the top exporting destination for Chinese cargoes before the ADD following which the exports dropped drastically

While other producers such as Taiwanese southeast Asian Indian and South Korean producers sold more volumes into Japan Chinese makers sold to other markets that were relinquished by the other producers

Table 1 shows a significant difference between 2016 and 2017 in Chinarsquos export volumes to key destinations from the January-to-March period

Ranked by volume starting with largestvolume as 1

There is an ongoing anti-dumping duty (ADD) investigation by the US on PET cargoes from Brazil Pakistan Indonesia Taiwan and South Korea

The Commerce Department issued the preliminary dumping rates for Indonesia at 1316 South Korea at 881-10141 and Taiwan at 902-1189 in May Final determinations will be issued by 8 November

Even so some producers from the countries under investigation continued to receive buying enquiries from the US amid the current tight supply situation

There will be some upcoming new capacities expected in Q3 as shown in table 2 that may bring about a more balanced supply to meet the demand

The US plant acquired by Far Eastern is estimated to restart in June-July which should also ease the supply tightness

Even with the new capacities and plant restarts market participants think it is unlikely that PET market will return to the oversupply situation seen in the previous years

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian PET markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 25Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 2

Our English-language report coverage includes

Styrene MEG Propylene

BTX Methanol Base Oil

BPA PE MTBE

Phenol PP Mixed AromaticsAcetone Oxo-Alcohol

Trusted industryintelligence for Chinarsquoscommodity marketsDevelopments in Chinarsquos petrochemicals industrycontinue to affect the global marketplace It istherefore vital for domestic and internationalmarket players to keep track of changes withinthe country to know where opportunities lie

ICIS has long been recognised as a reliablesource of information our locally-based expertscompile reports and analyses in English tosupport industry participants dealing with Chinamarkets or seeking to trade or invest

Pricing informationOur pricing data provide key insights into pricetrends in China to support your short-termdecision-making negotiations and analyses

bull Import and export spot and contract pricesbull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity

and upstreamdownstream marketsbull Data on inventory levels and price marginsbull Plant and production news

Petrochemicals Analytics SolutionsProviding our customers with a 360-degree view of the Chinese market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker - real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for thenext 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics - key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock anddo wnstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlooks

Available for key chemical commodities

wwwiciscomchina

Discover how we can meet your market information needs

enquiryiciscom

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESMONOETHYLENE GLYCOL (MEG)

ASIA MEG TO SEE DEMAND TAPERING LOWER SUPPLY IN EARLY H2By Eric Su

The Asian monoethylene glycol (MEG) market could see demand slowing down from the end of June while supply will be reduced from a number of plant turnarounds

Inventories are expected to decline in June after offtake rates at Chinese main ports rose sharply in the last two weeks of May because of an uptick in demand from downstream polyester buyers

Demand for MEG is also expected to remain strong in the first half of June boosted by high polyester production rates of above 85 and modestly low inventory levels

A slowdown in demand may take place in the second half of June as the traditional manufacturing peak period nears its end in July

Meanwhile supply conditions could tighten because of the plant turnarounds in northeast Asia

However supply from the Middle East will likely resume to normal levels given that there were no further delay in shipments in May

MEG prices in Asia have registered year-on-year growth rates in the months to June this year

MEG prices have mostly hovered above $900tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China Main Port (CMP) while prices were mostly below $900tonne CFR CMP in 2017

Prices have been volatile in 2018 with major price swings seen on a near monthly basis since February

MEG prices in first quarter of 2018 continued the uptrend seen in the fourth quarter of 2017 rising to $1030tonne CFR CMP in early March from $922tonne CFR

CMP in late December as the higher-than-expected growth in downstream polyester fuelled bullish market sentiment

Polyester growth in 2017 was estimated at above 10 beating an originally bearish expectation of 2-3

A price downtrend was observed in March with the MEG weekly average price losing nearly 10 of its value to $929tonne CFR CMP by end-March

The price decline coincided with a sharp influx of imported cargoes which was likely a result of over-procurement in January

Back to Quick Navigation | 26Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

and February when prices were trending upwards

March 2018 import volumes rose to nearly 1m tonnes a record three-year high according to official China customs data

MEG prices rebounded in April rising by around 9 from end-March to $1014tonne CFR CMP by end-April ahead of the traditional peak period for the downstream polyester sector The average polyester production rate rose to above 85 during the period

MEG also achieved its to-date weekly peak of $1042tonne CFR CMP in the week ending 20 April

Supply tightness was also observed in the Chinese domestic market because of shipment delays from the Middle East and logistical issues at China main ports over the same period

The lack of availability of prompt cargoes also led to an atypical price spread between April and May delivery parcels

Normally the spread between arrived-at-port and far-term arrival cargoes is at $0-10tonne CFR CMP but this widened to $20-30tonne CFR CMP This drove concerns of sharp price adjustments in May once April deliveries were fulfilled

These concerns came true as MEG prices

began to slide in May MEG weekly prices stood at $928tonne CFR CMP in the last week of May falling from $1003tonne CFR CMP in early May

High inventory levels have also weighed on MEG prices Inventory levels were above 900000 tonnes from early May onward rising to 938000 tonnes by in late March Most market participants deemed inventory levels above 900000 tonnes to be high

The increase in inventory levels in May were largely attributed to the arrival of Middle East shipments which were previously due for arrival in April

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian MEG markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 27Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSETHYLENE

NE ASIA ETHYLENE H2 OUTLOOK HINGES ON NEW SUPPLY SM PLANTBy Yeow Pei Lin

Northeast (NE) Asiarsquos ethylene (C2) second-half 2018 outlook is uncertain as several crackers are scheduled for maintenance but such production losses could be offset by the start up of a new plant and cargoes from outside the region

More than 20 crackers in Asia are slated to undergo maintenance in 2018 with the estimated capacity losses totalling more than 185m tonnes Most of the turnarounds in the first half of the year were concentrated in Japan ndash a key exporter to China

However several more companies are to carry out turnarounds in June and the rest of the year

The impact on the regional balance will depend on the start-up progress of a new facility in South Korea and on whether the strong exports from southeast Asia and Europe in the first half of 2018 will continue

Shipments from Yeosu South Korea will start to slow down in August ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at complexes in that region

Exports will recover by December when Lotte Chemical brings on-stream an added capacity of 200000 tonnesyear at its Yeosu cracker

The facility will undergo an expansion during a turnaround from late September to October

Shipments from Ulsan another petrochemical cluster in South Korea will grow in the second half of 2018

Newcomer S-Oil is expected to begin commercial operations at its residue upgrading complex (RUC) in Onsan in the second half of June

The companyrsquos entire ethylene output of up

to around 200000 tonnesyear is intended for the merchant market as it does not have any downstream plants

Exports from southeast Asian producers will continue to be driven by the higher value from ethylene sales in the ethylene versus polyethylene (PE) trade-off

There will however be supply constraints

Four crackers in the region will undergo

maintenance and the affected producers include ExxonMobil and PTT Global Chemicals (PTTGC) that were regular exporters in the first half of 2018

Exports from Europe will likely be influenced by the performance of the PE sector

The outlook for the PE market in Europe is uncertain given the growing prospect of competitively-priced exports from the new US plants

Back to Quick Navigation | 28Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Ethylene costs in the US have been at low levels since early 2018 as production growth outpaces that for consumption

Since late 2017 about 3m tonnesyear of new ethylene capacity and about 35m tonnesyear of new PE capacity have started up in the US

The new crackers have been running well but several of the new PE plants struggled to reach full operating rates

Exports from Saudi Arabia are expected to be constrained by increased domestic consumption

Petro Rabigh announced in April that the last few plants in its Phase 2 project including a 75000 tonneyear ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) unit have started up

The companyrsquos ethylene exports could fall further in the second half of 2018 following the completion of its PE plant maintenance shutdowns earlier in the year

Chinarsquos import demand is poised for further growth when a new 260000 tonneyear styrene monomer (SM) plant starts up in the third quarter as planned

Anhui Haoyuan Chemical will be operating the unit in Fuyang Anhui on a standalone basis as its plans to build a methanol-to-olefin (MTO) plant have been put on hold amid high methanol prices

The plant will require around 78000 tonnes of ethylene annually to operate at maximum capacity

Based on the above factors it was not immediately clear if the ethylene prices in the second half will follow the volatile trend they displayed in the first five months of 2018

NE Asia spot ethylene prices were volatile from January to May as the impact of a heavy regional cracker turnaround schedule and strong Chinese demand was at times outweighed by strong exports from southeast Asia the Middle East and Europe

The market started the year at above a two and a half year high of $1415tonne CFR (cost amp freight) NE Asia in early January

Subsequent transacted prices fluctuated within a low $1200stonne to mid $1300stonne CFR NE Asia band in the five months ended 31 May

Prices in the first quarter were initially weighed down by ample supply from producers in the Middle East and Asia due to a series of PE plant shutdowns - both planned and unplanned

That was despite strong pre-Lunar New Year holiday restocking activities in China

Demand was bolstered by the start up of a 500000 tonneyear non-integrated SM plant and generally healthy downstream margins for producers outside the PE sector

End-users were also keen to build up their inventories because of the slow progress in their 2018 term contract discussions ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at facilities of key exporters in the region

In addition a major ethylene oxide (EO) maker was seeking more import cargoes following a disruption in supply from its upstream MTO unit The plant was shut twice between late November and the first half of February because of high feedstock methanol costs

The market recovered in early March in line with the start of the annual cracker turnaround season in northeast Asia where

scheduled capacity losses in 2018 will be overall higher than the previous year

That explained why the countryrsquos exports from January to April slumped by 14 year-on-year to 201274 tonnes

In late April northeast Asiarsquos spot prices fell again after a surprisingly large quantity of deep-sea spot cargoes were sold into Asia for delivery between the middle of May and the first half of June

There were at least 55000-60000 tonnes of cargoes from Europe in addition to 11000 tonnes of US supply for that delivery period Europe was in a long position because of derivative maintenance shutdowns and production problems

Continued strong exports from southeast Asia owing to downstream production issues and the weak performance of the linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) market contributed to the downbeat sentiment

The ample supply outweighed Chinarsquos robust import demand

Buying interest in China was strong for April and May arrival cargoes on the back

Back to Quick Navigation | 29Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

of healthy downstream margins for certain downstream markets such as SM EO and monoethylene glycol (MEG)

Ethylene buyers in China were also keen to book deep-sea cargoes to offset the expected regional production losses from cracker turnarounds

Prices rebounded quickly in mid-May

aided by a bullish SM market and reduced domestic supply

Some MTO operators lowered production in May as high feedstock methanol costs led to squeezed margins while a key producer in east China lowered its cracker run rates unexpectedly

Sharp increases in feedstock naphtha costs

which tracked gains on crude oil futures also helped set a floor to the earlier price declines

By early June spot ethylene prices had touched a 20-week high raising questions on whether the market will see similar price volatility in the second half of 2018

Producers will turn hawkish if the outlook for crude and naphtha markets remains upbeat

Back to Quick Navigation | 30Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSPROPYLENE

TIGHT NE ASIA PROPYLENE SUPPLY TO LIMIT H2 PRICE FLUCTUATIONSBy Joson Ng

Tight propylene (C3) supply in northeast Asia amid a heavy turnaround schedule in 2018 will continue supporting regional prices of the material into the second half

Sellers are likely to continue passing on firmer costs to buyers which are wary of October when heavy propylene production losses are expected

Buyersrsquo resistance in the key China market would keep any further increase in propylene prices in check with some downstream producers considering cutting output due to high feedstock costs

At the start of June propylene prices have weakened ending the strong general uptrend since end-March amid weakness in Chinarsquos domestic market as demand softened due to turnarounds at downstream polypropylene (PP) plants

However the downward pressure on regional prices may be temporary as overall supply in Asia is expected to be tight

In early June spot propylene prices in northeast Asia were about 9 higher from the start of 2018 according to ICIS data

The year started on a bullish note fuelled by a heavier cracker turnaround schedule compared with 2017 and higher premium levels concluded for contract cargoes

The uptrend was sustained into February due to restocking activities in various import markets in northeast Asia before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February

Before the holidays some South Korean producers were convinced the market will experience supply shortage as both GS Caltexrsquos fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity and Yeochun NCCrsquos (YNCC) cracker ndash which can produce 280000 tonnesyear of propylene ndash were due for maintenance in February through to April

But propylene prices surprisingly weakened from 9 February to end-March without demand support from Chinarsquos weak PP market which struggled through sluggish sales and high inventory after the countryrsquos week-long Lunar New Year holiday

A renewed wave of scheduled turnarounds at regional plants tightened supply and drove up propylene prices in April and May

In Taiwan Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) took its residue fluid catalytic

Back to Quick Navigation | 31Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

cracking (RFCC) unit with a 350000 tonneyear propylene capacity off stream from 1 March to mid-April while CPC Corp shut its 100000 tonneyear FCC unit on 10 April and restarted in early June

In South Korea GS Caltex also had a turnaround at its FCC unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity from 19 February to 5 April

SK Advanced shut its propane dehydrogenated (PDH) unit with 600000 tonneyear propylene capacity on 21 April to early May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian propylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 32Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

To talk to someone about price forecast reports call the numbers below or email us at salesukiciscomAsia-Pacific Europe Africa and Middle East The AmericasTel +65 6789 8828 Tel +44 20 8652 3335 Tel +1 713 525 2600 or Toll free +1 888 525 3255 (US and Canada only)

ICIS price forecast reportsSupply demand and price trends at a glance

ICIS price forecast reports provide a clear view of prices and supply and demand trends for the next 12 months Packed with vital information the report includes everything you need to assess where the market is heading and the impact or opportunity that presents for your business

To find out more or take a trial visit wwwiciscompriceforecast

Price Forecast Window

ICIS price forecasts are now available on the Dashboard channel using the Price Forecast Window which will enable users to

n Chart the price forecast against the last (rolling) twelve months of related price history

n Plot the last 12 months to view forecast progression and ICIS forecast accuracy

n Convert data into different currencies and units and download this data into Excel in order to easily enter into your own calculations

How price forecast reports can help youn Understand the marketUse ICIS price forecast reports to understand where the market is heading and identify the risks and the opportunities for your business What are the major demand developments for your product n Safeguard commercial decisionsUse market information to make better-informed business decisions relating to supply and demand Learn about changes in market capacities What factors will affect supply for you n Budgeting and planningWhether you are planning how much you will be spending in the short-to medium or even long term use the price forecast reports to help assess future prices for your product What will the price of your product be in six monthsrsquo time

Price forecast reports currently

available

Available as price forecast windows only

Polypropylene

Polyethylene

Benzene

StyrenePolystyrene

Methanol

Ethylene

Propylene

Styrene

Asia Europe US Global

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

OLEFINSBUTADIENE

ASIA BD TO FLUCTUATE IN H2 AS SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE SHIFTSBy Helen Yan

Asiarsquos butadiene (BD) spot prices for July shipments are likely to face downward pressure but any price downtrend is likely to reverse when cracker turnarounds start to kick in from September onwards

BD prices are expected to be weighed down before seeing support again in the third quarter as the supply and demand balance shifts during this period

The fourth quarter will likely see support for BD prices although the increases may be tempered by resistance from the downstream synthetic rubber (SR) makers to any significant price hikes

The busy cracker turnaround season in September-November will likely see supply tightening at the same time that demand is expected to pick up during this period

Several crackers and BD units including South Korearsquos Lotte Chemical LG Chem and Chinarsquos Shanghai Secco and Maoming Petrochemical are scheduled to shut during

the September to November time frame

In the near term BD spot prices are likely to continue to trend lower as demand wanes while supply at the same time is expected to lengthen due to an influx of deep-sea cargoes and regional cracker restarts

More than 15000 tonnes of deep-sea cargoes from EU are expected to arrive in Asia in June and July at the same time that crackers in Asia including Indiarsquos Haldia Petrochemical and Indonesiarsquos Chandra Asri resume their production following their maintenance shutdowns

On 8 June spot prices fell to $1725tonne CFR (cost amp freight) northeast (NE) Asia the second consecutive week of decline after spiralling upwards in the two months since early April

BD spot prices had increased by more than 40 since early April peaking at $1800tonne CFR NE Asia on 25 May

Strong demand from derivative acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) makers which were running their plants at optimal rates had bolstered the BD price upsurge during this period

However derivative styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) and polybutadiene rubber (PBR) producers the key consumers of BD cut their production output given the continued erosion in margins

Several major SBR and PBR producers said their margins had fallen into negative territory and retreated from the BD spot market in June

Chinese spot appetite in particular tapered off as domestic BD prices were lower compared with the US dollar-denominated import prices

In China Hangzhou Zhechen Jilin Petrochemical Zhejiang Transfar and Shen Hua Chemical were some of the SBR and PBR plants that are shut for maintenance in June and July

Several SBR and PBR plants in Taiwan and South Korea were also running at lower rates following the 40 BD price spike in the two months from early April to end-May

In South Korea major SR producer Korea Kumho Petrochemical PC was running its SBR and PBR plants at reduced rates

Back to Quick Navigation | 33Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian butadiene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 34Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Similarly Taiwanrsquos TSRC also cut the production output of its SBR and PBR plants

The outlook for the fourth quarter is expected to see a different turn of events with SBR and PBR plants resuming their production and ramping up their operating rates while supply during the last quarter is expected to tighten from the heavy cracker turnaround season

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYETHYLENE (PE)

SOUTHEAST ASIA PE MARKET FACES LONGER H2 SUPPLY WEAK DEMANDBy Felita Widjaja

Southeast Asiarsquos polyethylene (PE) market may be facing longer supply in the second half hinging on how the US-China trade spat plays out amid the regionrsquos weakening demand for imports

Global PE trade flows will be affected should China the biggest importer of spot PE cargoes in the world decide to impose retaliatory 25 tariff on US cargoes

Southeast Asia as an alternative buying region might be hard pressed to absorb additional supply from the US where massive PE capacities recently started up which were meant to cater to huge Chinese demand

Around 5m tonnes of additional US PE capacities are expected from several major projects including those in the pipeline to start up within the second half of 2018

China primarily imports PE cargoes from Asia and the Middle East while the US is its sixth leading PE supplier in 2017

ldquoEventually more substantial and regular volume of US [PE] cargoes are expected to be traded in Asia in the second half of the year as we have yet to see them in the first half of this yearrdquo said a regional trader

Any changes in trade flows would pose challenges to US suppliers in the short term as they would need to revamp their logistics and distribution channels to redirect cargoes to other markets

Suppliers from the Middle East meanwhile might take the opportunity to supply more cargoes to China and would mean fewer volumes available to the southeast Asian market

The Middle East is southeast Asiarsquos major PE supplier

Demand for PE imports in southeast Asia has been weak amid lower prices in

Back to Quick Navigation | 35Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

the domestic markets as in the case of Thailand

ldquoThai traders are not keen to import as local prices are more competitive so they do not have the margin to sell the imported cargoes in local market Only some converters who need specific cargoes continue to importrdquo said a local Thai trader

Malaysia and Indonesia with predominantly Muslim populations have seen market activity slow down since mid-May when the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan started Ramadan ends with the Eid ul-Fitr holiday on 15 June

The Indonesian government has declared a longer Eid-ul Fitr holiday this year from 11-20 June

Markets in Singapore and the Philippines will be closed for the mid-June holiday as well

With supply expected to become long some market players expect regional PE prices in July and August to ease from

June with restocking activities expected to kick in towards the end of the third quarter

In the first half of 2018 southeast Asiarsquos average prices for commodity PE were largely stable to firm owing to suppliersrsquo relatively comfortable-to-tight supply for most of the period

At the start of June high density polyethylene (HDPE) film grade prices averaged $1395tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia while linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) film were at $1210tonne CFR SE Asia and $1265tonne CFR SE Asia respectively according to ICIS data

Prices had spiked in the first quarter as suppliers were holding comfortable-to-tight inventory as several regional producers have scheduled turnarounds at their plants in March Production issues and shutdowns in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia also limited availability of imports to southeast Asia during this period

Supply for HDPE film was particularly tight as some producers from the Middle East as well as Asia switched their focus into making HDPE pipe grade amid robust demand and better netbacks

The price uptrend across most PE grades could not be sustained in the second quarter although prices remained relatively stable-to-firm

The depreciation of local currencies in southeast Asia against the US dollar in most of the second quarter was also curbing overall demand for imports A weaker currency makes US dollar-denominated imports expensive

ldquoIndonesian buyers have not been buying much cargoes as the market slowed down during Ramadan and also because of weak rupiah which led the central bank to increase interest rate to limit the depreciationrdquo said a regional producer

CHINA PE IMPORTS TO STAY STRONG AMID DOMESTIC PLANT TURNAROUNDS By Angie Li

Chinarsquos polyethylene (PE) imports are expected to remain strong for the rest of the year after posting record volumes in January to April 2018 amid scheduled turnarounds at domestic facilities

Buyers in China have been accumulating imported PE cargoes as these were priced lower compared futures prices since the start of the year

More cargoes will be available to China as new capacities in the US are expected to boost production

For the month of May the countryrsquos PE imports are projected to reach 12m tonnes higher than the monthly average in the first four months of 2018

In January to April 2018 its PE imports volumes totaled 447m tonnes up by 12 from the previous corresponding period according to industry sources

The import volumes were making up for the production losses in the domestic market due to scheduled turnarounds

On 1 June low density PE (LDPE) imports were assessed at $1155-1180tonne linear low density PE (LLDPE) stood at $1150-1170tonne while high density PE (HDPE) film products were at $1340-1400tonne according to ICIS data

The prices have increased 15-62 from end-March but the gains came in lower than market playersrsquo expectations considering the heavy production loss due to turnarounds from April

Back to Quick Navigation | 36Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

An estimated 500000 tonnes are expected to be shaved in the second quarter due to scheduled maintenance at domestic facilities according ICIS data

ldquoWe thought the hefty plant turnarounds in the second quarter should lead to a surge in PE prices but the LDPE and LLDPE prices were less than satisfactory although HDPE prices [were] highrdquo said an east China-based trader referring to both the import and domestic PE prices

Strong imports amid hedging activities bloated the total supply in China in January to April to 998m tonnes up by 8 from the previous corresponding period with supply of LDPE and LLDPE up by 14 and 8 respectively market sources said

Imports of HDPE inched up by 2 over the same period given the gradersquos comparatively higher prices compared with LLDPE and LDPE

Increased availability due to recent capacity expansions and start-ups in Asia the Middle East also fuels Chinarsquos appetite for import cargoes

In the first quarter of 2018 additional cargoes from Saudi Arabia were mostly from Sadara Chemical which started up its 750000 tonneyear swing plant and 350000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Al Jubail during late 2016 and early 2017 respectively

Cargoes of Iran origin augmented the total volume from the UAE as market players try to go around the financial sanctions on Tehran Kordestan Petrochemicalrsquos 300000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Iran came on stream in March 2017

UAErsquos Borouge has also ramped up pipe and HDPE film exports to China during the period according to a supplier in the Middle East

Meanwhile PE imports from Singapore surged 38 year on year while those from India more than doubled to 127000 tonnes according to China Customs data

The ban on waste plastics implemented in China in the year also bolstered imports of virgin PE Some waste plastics processed overseas and then re-entered the market as virgin products but these volumes were limited

Last year China has imported 194m tonnes of PE waste plastics while

volumes in 2018 will be negligible with the implemention of the ban

Chinarsquos PE production this year is expected to increase by around 7 to about 17m tonnes in 2018 with imports projected to grow by 102 to around 13m tonnes according to a source from state-owned petrochemical giant PetroChina

Domestic demand for PE on the other hand is forecast to grow by 8 this year mainly from the packaging and pipe markets

Chinarsquos ongoing campaign to switch to using gas for power generation instead of coal is expected to continue boosting demand for PE gas pipes this year

The packaging industry will also drive up PE consumption underpinned by growth in electronic commerce Chinarsquos express delivery volumes reached 137bn packages during January-April 2018 based on data from the recent China Express Industry Development Conference in May

Back to Quick Navigation | 37Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 38Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

By Jonathan Lopez

ICIS NewsThe leading news service for real-time ground breaking news and analysis on the global petrochemicals markets

The ICIS News services give you unrivalled access to the most in-depth stories impacting the petrochemicals markets influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions

Our team of global editors are reporting around the clock to bring you the latest news and analysis so that you get the full picture of market and pricing developments first providing you with invaluable foresight to take advantage of every opportunity and to stay ahead of your competitors

With ICIS News you will be the first to read

Breaking news on the chemical markets that will impact your business

News on market moves deals and announcements that will affect your organisation

Force majeures closures and developments that influence your commodity prices

Expert analysis on industry trends and hot topics ndash know whatrsquos happening and why

Searchable archive with over 14 million articles from the past 10 years

Chemical Business News Base (CBNB) is a premium resource available on ICIS News It provides you with an extensive external source of upstream and downstream petrochemical news in summarised snapshots so you can quickly and easily get the latest updates on whatrsquos important to you

CBNB offers readers

Fast and consistent coverage on news facts figures from the upstream and downstream petrochemicals industry

Access to over 700 news sources including technical and trade journals company literature market research reports stockbroker reports books and directories

User-friendly search functionality to find articles most relevant to you from around the globe

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ICB features include

In-depth insight into chemical price changes and their impact on the markets

Understand the detail behind the headline news stories

Find out about supply amp demand trends and the factors impacting them

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ICIS News offers access to additional sources including the ICIS Chemical Business Magazine and Chemical Business News Base (CBNB)

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYPROPYLENE (PP)

SE ASIA PP PRICES MAY COME UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 AS SUPPLY LENGTHENSBy Leanne Tan

Southeast Asiarsquos polypropylene (PP) market may come under pressure in the second half of the year on account of lengthening regional supply and weak downstream demand

Spot prices have been on the rise for most of May buoyed by bullish sentiment in the Chinese market and firm upstream feedstock costs

Margins for PP makers have been lower on average compared with levels in the previous year

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refinery amp Petrochemicals is scheduled to start up its 400000 tonneyear PP production unit in the third quarter The project was initially scheduled to start up in the first quarter of 2018

While domestic demand will continue to outstrip local production the countryrsquos reliance on imports may be diminished when the new plant starts up

Converters in the country have been opting to keep inventories lean in the short term amid expectations that prices may eventually weaken when more domestic supply becomes available

ldquoBuyers donrsquot want to buy too much import cargoes now not just because prices are high but also because there will be more locally-produced materials very soonrdquo a Vietnamese trader said

In Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan is expected to start commercial production at its expanded PP facility in Pasir Gudang in June or July The plantrsquos capacity will be raised by 200000 tonnesyear from 400000 tonnesyear

Import availabilities from South Korea are expected to lengthen in the medium-to-long term with S-Oil expected to complete an olefin downstream complex (ODC) at its Onsan refinery in Ulsan which will include a

405000 tonneyear PP capacity

On the demand front weakness is likely to persist in the second half with converters and end-users likely to continue buying spot cargoes on a hand-to-mouth basis

Indonesiarsquos demand in particular has been below expectations since the start of 2018 and this is likely to continue in the second half of the year according to market players

Back to Quick Navigation | 39Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Some players said import demand for dutiable cargoes may increase in the second half of the year as this is typically when the government issues duty exemption facilities

The duty exemption facilities are issued on a yearly basis which enable converters to import some PP volumes without extra cost

In Malaysia the removal of the 6 goods and services tax (GST) so far has had no immediate impact on the PP market although there are some expectations the move could potentially boost demand in the consumer market further down the road

In Vietnam demand for PP flat yarn has entered a seasonal lull from May to early July and will not pick up until August when the summer harvest begins

PP is widely used in the manufacture of woven sacks (for rice sacks) flexible packaging carpets household appliances and automotive parts

Spot PP prices in southeast Asia have been an uptrend for most of the first half

The PP market begun the year on a bullish note with spot prices surging by almost 10 over the course of two months all-origins PP flat yarn prices peaked at $1295tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia on 2 March

Healthy demand in China helped to provide support to spot prices in southeast Asia in the first quarter with a tight global spot supply leading to further price escalations

Some suppliers pulled back from the southeast Asian spot market to capitalise on better netbacks in other countries including Japan and Pakistan leading to further curtailed spot availability in southeast Asia

The market rally started to lose steam in early March amid subdued demand and a build-up of domestic inventories in China after the Lunar New Year holidays

The bearish sentiment soon spilled over into southeast Asia with Chinese suppliers pushing some volumes into southeast Asia amid an open arbitrage window

Vietnam remains the market of choice for Chinese exporters and PP import prices in the country plummeted as the result of the lengthened spot availability

However the bearish run was short-lived and prices soon bottomed out in early April

Bullish momentum in the upstream crude and naphtha markets propelled spot prices of polymers higher

Despite lacklustre downstream demand price hikes in April and May were commonplace as producers sought higher asking prices in view of narrower margins

TIGHT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT CHINA PP MARKET DESPITE WEAK DEMANDBy Dora Xue

Tight supply would buoy up Chinarsquos polypropylene (PP) prices in the near term despite weak downstream demand

The market is expecting heavy production losses following recent unexpected outages at five domestic facilities from May and scheduled turnarounds at other plants

In the week ended on 1 June domestic prices for PP flat yarn in east China were assessed at Chinese yuan (CNY) 9075tonne after a steady increase from early April according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos import prices for the same material stood at $1245tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China largely tracking movement in the domestic market over the past two months according to ICIS data

The strong PP prices have also started to deter buyers from purchasing more spot cargoes

ldquoPP prices are too high We donrsquot want to store too much in our warehouserdquo a buyer said

Downstream demand typically goes on a lull in June and July but any downward pressure on prices will be negated by a further tightening of supply as major plants will be taken off line for maintenance

ldquoWhen the maintenance season finishes in late June [PP] prices may start to go downrdquo a trader said

Demand is considered weakest at Qingdao in the eastern Shandong province due to government-mandated production cuts and logistics restrictions ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (SCO Summit) on 9-10 June

As of 1 June the combined polyolefin inventories of Chinese petrochemical majors Sinopec and PetroChina have declined back to normal levels of 700000 tonnes from a high of 1m tonnes in early March market sources said

Import supply to China may not improve in the short term as suppliers still deem other

Back to Quick Navigation | 40Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

Back to Quick Navigation | 43Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 16: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

Petrochemicals Analytics SolutionsOur new and enhanced petrochemical analytics and insight puts you in a stronger position so you can optimise your trades plans and strategies in order to secure a competitive advantage

ICIS is the only information provider to offer this unique combination of analytics tools as one subscription alongside pricing data and analysis

Live Supply Disruption TrackerPlant outages and maintenance for the next 12 months plus the impact of capacity changes

3 Pre-empt competition and capitalise on trades impacted by outages

3 Be aware of market shortages with a real-time view to manage risk and ensure security of stock

3 Negotiate better prices with other market players

Supply amp Demand OutlooksQuarterly global supply and demand review and outlook for key value chains and regions

3 Support your short-term strategy with upstream and downstream market sentiment and expectations for the current quarter at a regional level

3 Expand opportunities in international trade3 Understand at-a-glance the regional supply and

demand outlook across six key commodity chains

Price Drivers AnalyticsCross-commodity and cross-regional analysis of importexport parity substitution trends and feedstockdownstream spreads

3 Gain new context and negotiating tools in addition to ICIS price assessments

3 Pre-empt competition and spot opportunities with visual charts and impact commentaries

3 Reduce the time spent making manual calculations and spend more time on strategy and acting on market opportunities

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360 view of the market l See the global market from

all anglesl Achieve better price

flexibilityl Enrich strategy plans with

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Real-time information l Powered by 43000 plant

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AROMATICSTOLUENE

CHINA IMPORTS TO UNDERPIN ASIA TOLUENE MARKET IN H2 2018By Trixie Yap

Asiarsquos toluene market direction in the second half of this year will be determined by the buying activity from Chinese importers which has been the key factor influencing its prices so far in 2018

FOB (free on board) Korea prices which have been fluctuating in a wider-than-expected range for the past month closed at $760-785tonne in the week ended 1 June for June and July-loading parcels

The decreases at the close on 1 June marked the end of three weeksrsquo worth of stable-to-firm price trend

This followed weaker import demand from China for July which mainly stemmed from the ending of traders replenishing shore tank inventories at eastern ports such as Jiangsu

CFR (cost amp freight) China prices were in a sideways trend for most parts of early 2018 up to March at $690-765tonne

Prices only picked up after April and hit a peak of $835tonne CFR China after fluctuating in the $700-710tonne CFR China range for a few weeks

Unlike earlier expectations when market players were hoping for Chinese import demand to peak after the post early-March Lunar New Year period CFR China buying activity remained muted and only rose after May because of improved demand from the gasoline blenders

Blending demand received a boost because of lower gasoline production from state-owned refineries amid a spate of turnarounds in China ndash mainly in the eastern regions ndash starting end April to June

The better blending economics for toluene in early May particularly for the oil majors paved the way for demand as well

Back to Quick Navigation | 15Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Toluene-isomer xylenes spread on an ex-tank basis was wider with toluene being much more price friendly for gasoline production as compared to isomer xylene

With the 1 May implementation of a new online tax-filing system for oil and chemical products oil majors had no choice but to buy blend stocks themselves

Back to Quick Navigation | 16Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

instead of gasoline cargoes directly as the government was effectively making private gasoline blending activities unworkable as these blenders will not be able to potentially avoid tax payments via the paper filing system now

The presence of higher-than-expected inventories at east China main ports ndash stock levels hit a high of 76700 tonnes in early March ndash contributed further to the later timing of import demand Inventories only fell significantly after April (see chart above)

The only key issue hampering import demand from improving further was the

generally weak off taking activities from the downstream chemical sectors as isocynates benzoic acid benzyl chloride and other types of solvent products

The downstream demand was hampered because of low and unchanged operating rates because of stricter environmental regulations imposed by the government since second-half 2017

Looking ahead however the bleak demand situation for toluene from the chemical downstream sector could reverse soon starting August-September because of Wan Hua Chemicalrsquos new TDI plant start-up

The TDI plantsrsquo nameplate capacity is currently 300000 tonnesyear which could equate to around 160000 tonnesyear of toluene usage according to several market players

While this may not directly represent an increase in demand for CFR China import toluene cargoes it is likely to boost domestic toluene demand within north China particularly Shandong region and allow for potential arbitrage flows within the country

This in turn may support import parity of yuan-denominated ex-tank prices and allow for healthy distributor margins ndash if they consider to buy CFR China cargoes which is a key driver for majority of these import buyers

Market participants in China were quick to note also that supply increments ndash following at least three new plant start-ups this year ndash will outpace demand increments whichcould pose a problem in determining whichwill have a larger impact on import demandand prices

ldquoThe additional capacities may not be sold into the merchant market because there will still be captive usage since these producers are refineries with gasoline requirements and fulfilmentsrdquo one east China-based trader said

Ultimately it will be dependent on how the internal consumption for gasoline ndash of these new start-ups ndash will pan out leading up to the year-end

Changes in average operating rates of state-owned refineries due to turnarounds or outages will be another direction driver

Aside from China demand-supply fundamentals the other key price driver is the supply balance within Asia

Supply has been generally long between January and May owing to the stable operating plant rates and overall sufficient availability in southeast Asia a key net exporter within the region

Availability of northeast Asian cargoes was curtailed at some points in time ndash particularly in February and March ndashbecause of turnarounds

Back to Quick Navigation | 17Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 18Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

However supply has been steadily rising for cargoes loading in May and June ndash with the market seeing an additional of close to 30000 tonnes of product from South Korea alone ndash as some downstream plants had ongoing shutdown plans all the way till early July (see right)

All of these cargoes as expected are heading to China because of the opened arbitrage window for exports during the same time period

The increment in excess spot supply from South Korea ndash going forward ndash will be driven by downstream spreads for TDP operators since the benzene-toluene spreads have been narrowing consistently from March when the spreads hit a peak

The healthy spreads between toluene and xylenes (para and isomer) have been the only saving grace for the TDP market

ldquoBenzene demand-supply fundamentals are likely to continue remaining weak with increments in supply still expected from Middle East and Vietnam from June so that is going to still put pressure on TDP operators whether to run their unit with more toluene or less toluene [since they can adjust the amount of feedstock]rdquo one northeast Asian end-user said

ldquoBenzene demand-supply fundamentals are likely to continue remaining weak with increments in supply still expected from Middle East and Vietnam from June so that is going to still put pressure on TDP operators whether to run their unit with more toluene or less toluene [since they can adjust the amount of feedstock]rdquo one northeast Asian end-user said

There is also hope that supply will be curbed again in the autumn season ndash when several plants start their planned maintenances ndash to provide a temporary relief to the readily sufficient spot availability

Ultimately if Chinarsquos importing activity continues to be robust there will be no issues with them soaking up the excess supplies at any point of time

ldquoThe key issue is how much these buyers can procure and how long their buying activities can last but so far it has been very sporadic and capped to short time frames because of them being risk averserdquo one southeast Asian trader said

Back to Quick Navigation | 19Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

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PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian toluene markets

BASE OILSBASE OILS

ASIA MIDEAST BASE OILS FIRM IN H1 BUT SOME PULLBACK LIKELY IN H2By Jasmine Khoo amp Izham Ahmad

Asia base oils Group I SN150 and Group II 150N prices are expected to remain firm on persistently low supply whereas the heavy grades - Group I SN500 and Group II 500600N - could come under pressure on ample availability

Into the second half of the year base oils supply from Iran are expected to be stable with no known maintenance plans due over the following few months from June and that could add further pressure on prices amid the weak demand outlook

Only one Iranian refiner is due for a maintenance shutdown in the second half of the year possibly sometime in September according to market sources

In Group II like in Asia short supply of 150N and 500600N is expected to support prices in coming months but the Group II segment in the Middle East is a much smaller market for producers

Major Group II and III producers in Saudi Arabia Qatar Bahrain and UAE also continue to focus on their traditional markets outside of the Middle East due to stronger demand and higher margins

Brightstock remained largely stable for June in terms of pricing following deals done at parity with Mayrsquos levels but market players maintained a cautious stance towards brightstock pricing which would typically see downward pressure towards the end of the year

The winter season in parts of Asia would typically herald a period of slow cargo uptake for brightstock as transportation logistics get more challenging

As for Group III base oils northeast Asian-origin lots are expected to see support in spot prices from June as seen from healthy uptake among buyers amid short supply from regional suppliers

Similarly in the Middle East market Group I prices started the year on a firm note

Around mid-February SN500 prices traded up to $80750tonne FOB (free on board) Iran their highest levels since ICIS began tracking the data in November 2015

SN150 also traded their record highs about the same time hitting $72750tonne FOB Iran

These record highs were held until early May despite buyers at the time showing increasing resistance to the higher levels and the uncertainty that took hold of the market ahead of a deadline for the US to decide on whether it would remain in the Iran nuclear deal

On 8 May US president Donald Trump announced that the US will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal and re-impose sanctions on Tehran consequently driving up crude prices to new highs since late 2014

Iranrsquos base oils prices were largely stable in that week but market outlook has been clouded with uncertainties following the USrsquo decision to re-impose sanctions on the country

Group I SN500 prices were stable through the early half of May at $780-805tonne FOB Iran while Group I SN150 were holding at $710-745tonne FOB Iran since early-February according to ICIS data

Prices began to decline around mid-May when it became more apparent that the increased sanctions would cause at least some disruptions to business dealings with Iranian entities

Market players said they encountered difficulties in financial transactions with Iran and many financial institutions were reluctant to take on any dealings involving Iran-based businesses for fear of conflicting with the US sanctions

On the supply side market players in the UAE said there were sufficient cargoes built up over recent months and as such

there was less demand for further spot deals in Group I particularly with the threat of renewed sanctions

Mid-May also marked the start of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan which is a typically slow season for the Middle East

Certain manufacturing activities are reduced as factories observed shorter operating hours and as many workers took some vacation time as well

The Eid ul-Fitr long holidays followed the end of Ramadan in mid-June

Asiarsquos base oils market trends for certain widely-traded Group I grades snapped out of persistent uptrend in late April against a backdrop of increasingly squeezed buyersrsquo margins and waning demand

Steady gains in FOB Asia spot prices were recorded since September 2017 on the back of regional shortages as demand surpassed output

This was partly fuelled by natural disasters in the US when Hurricane Harvey disrupted between 20 and 25 of the countryrsquos refining capacity in August

The disruption to base oils production at some units led to increased appetite for deep-sea shipments from Asia to the US

In the current market SN500 prices registered the greatest drops among the ICIS assessed grades shedding slightly more than 12 of its spot pricing between 13 April and 25 May ICIS data showed

Market participants attributed the price dip to lackluster demand brought about by a supply overhang of domestically-produced SN400 in the local Chinese market

Competitive pricing of SN400 amid ample availability curtailed import appetite among China-based buyers for SN500 of Asian origin especially since some buyers were still holding on to sufficient stocks for the near term

Back to Quick Navigation | 20Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Brightstock prices also softened reflecting increasingly squeezed buyersrsquo margins following steep gains seen from 22 September 2017 to 23 March 2018 in FOB Asia export prices

Some buyers were also sitting on sufficient inventories from active procurement earlier in the year leading to waned demand

This led refiners and traders to cut offers to encourage cargo uptake for May shipment cargoes

Group II 150N and 500600N prices largely held up on the back of potential supply woes in the summer season amid scheduled shutdowns at major Asian refineries

Taiwanrsquos Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) is expected to conduct planned maintenance in July market sources said

This led market players to hold on to expectations of buoyed spot prices for Group II base oils in the near term though significant increase is not expected for certain grades such as 500600N amid ample spot availability in the region

Group III 4 and 6cst base oils largely continued their steady price uptrend reflecting short supply among key South Korean Group III suppliers

8cst base oils of northeast Asian origin amid comparatively greater availability than its lighter counterparts saw less gains in prices since the beginning of 2018

South Korean-origin Group III base oils prices were mostly buoyant despite an influx of Middle East-origin Group III base oils into the northeast Asian market since November 2017 as South Korean-origin Group III users adhered largely to using the same material due to formulation restrictions and related OEM approvals

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PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian base oils markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 21Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPURIFIED TEREPHTHALIC ACID (PTA)

ASIA PTA SUPPLY TO LENGTHEN IN H2 ON INDIA CHINA PLANT START-UPSBy Samuel Wong

Supply of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in Asia is expected to lengthen in the second half of 2018 as new capacities will start up in the major markets of India and China amid a slowdown in demand

Major plants would have resumed production after unplanned outages to ease the current global supply tightness that has been driving up Asian prices while demand typically weakens in the third quarter

Asian PTA prices may start to come under pressure as fresh supply will hit the markets when new major regional plants start production in the third quarter

ldquoMarket sentiment is currently pessimistic about the outlook however this can quickly change if we see a sudden uptick in downstream demandrdquo a China-based producer said

In India JBF Grouprsquos 125m tonneyear PTA unit in Mangalore is expected to start up in the third quarter although the schedule is still fluid according to several market participants

In China Fuhaichuang Petrochemical formerly known as Dragon Aromatics (Zhangzhou) is planning to resume operations at its complex in the third quarter of 2018 after a prolonged shutdown

Its petrochemical complex in Zhangzhou has a 45m tonneyear PTA plant comprisings three 15m tonneyear lines two of which have been in operation since end-2017 The company is likely to restart the third line once smooth operations at its upstream paraxylene (PX) unit at the site is achieved market players said

In Europe Indorama Ventures Portugal plans to start up in July an idled 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Sines Thailand-based Indorama Ventures Ltd acquired the

plant from Portuguese Artlant PTA in late 2017

All these factors should see the narrowing of the price gap between Chinarsquos import and domestic markets as early as July after widening steadily from March to May

As of 12 June the gap stood at $96tonne down from the peak of about $111tonne on 30 May

Asiarsquos PTA prices are currently steady at firm levels Regional end-users preferred to procure cargoes on a need-to basis and were not keen on building inventories

Future movement will depend on market conditions in the downstream polyester industry

The wide price gap in Chinarsquos import and domestic markets has been deterring Chinese buyers from tapping the international spot market for supplies since March while demand was healthy especially in the downstream polyethylene terephthalate (PET) markets

Tight global supply in the first half saw Asian producers shipping out cargoes to the Middle East as well as Europe which was hit by unplanned outages in Belgium and Poland in April

Back to Quick Navigation | 22Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

In Europe BP Chemical on 15 April declared a force majeure at its Belgium PTA unit and a second force majeure on 17 May PKN Orlen on 23 April declared a force majeure at its Wloclawek PTA unit in Poland which was subsequently lifted on 2 May with spot cargoes from the plant limited until after a planned maintenance in SeptemberOctober 2018

Within Asia the southeastern region has had PTA plant outages and had to procure cargoes from the northeast in the preceding two months

Regional supply tightened further with the unexpected shutdown of Hanwha General Chemicalrsquos 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Daesan prompting a force majeure declaration on 21 May

In the first half of 2018 strong growth in demand in the downstream polyester markets in Asia particularly China supported the rally in PTA prices amid tight supply

Downstream polyester markets were enjoying positive margins keeping demand for feedstock PTA healthy

In the key China market operating rates at polyester units were higher compared with the previous year

The countryrsquos PTA production losses in January-June 2018 on the other hand were estimated at around 134m tonnes due to planned and unplanned outages

Asiarsquos PTA producers were largely enjoying healthy margins on the back of steady demand growth in the downstream polyester markets Firmer upstream energy

and feedstock PX prices have also buoyed PTA prices

In January to May 2018 Brent crude traded at $6692-7616bbl up by about 25 year

on year while PX prices were at $938-994tonne representing a 15 increase over the same period

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian purified terephthalic acid (PTA)) markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 23Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPOLYETHYLENE TEREPHTHALATE (PET)

ASIA PET TO REMAIN FIRM IN Q3 AS TIGHT SUPPLY SUPPORT PRICESBy Hazel Goh

Asian polyethylene terephthalate (PET) market is likely to remain firm in the third quarter on the back of tight supply a trend that has supported prices so far in 2018

Recently PET tight supply is a result of production cuts in Asia and Europe that have not had a clear estimated date of resuming normal operations

China Resources Packaging had cut production at its PET lines in Changzhou by 50 following notice from the government to reduce pollution in end-May It is not known for how long the production cuts will remain in place

In Europe there had been feedstock purified terephthalic acid (PTA) supply tightness leading to recent PET production cuts and force majeure by Novapet and JBF respectively

Many buyers had been purchasing on a need-to basis expecting that firm prices are unsustainable and will come down Subsequently they did not stock up cargoes ahead of the peak summer demand season for countries in the northern hemisphere

The reality turned out different and they had to accept higher prices as production cuts kept the supply tight

PET used to track feedstock price movements closely as it had been an oversupplied market and producers typically operate on thin margins

The oversupply situation changed and tightness was first felt in the third quarter of 2017 when plant closures by JBF RAK in the UAE and Belgium and by Mossi amp Ghisolfi (MampG) in the US Mexico and Brazil following financial tightness in the two PET-producing companies

Hurricane Harvey that hit the US in the third quarter led to further production cuts in the US

Back to Quick Navigation | 24Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 1

From then on supply remained tight as the plant under JBF RAK in the UAE and the former MampG plant in the US that had been acquired by Far Eastern remained shut for extended period of time even into 2018

Market players previously had concerns about where China will export its material when final anti-dumping duties (ADD) - heard to be at the same level as thepreliminary duties of 398-530 - wereimposed on its cargoes into Japan inJanuary

Japan was the top exporting destination for Chinese cargoes before the ADD following which the exports dropped drastically

While other producers such as Taiwanese southeast Asian Indian and South Korean producers sold more volumes into Japan Chinese makers sold to other markets that were relinquished by the other producers

Table 1 shows a significant difference between 2016 and 2017 in Chinarsquos export volumes to key destinations from the January-to-March period

Ranked by volume starting with largestvolume as 1

There is an ongoing anti-dumping duty (ADD) investigation by the US on PET cargoes from Brazil Pakistan Indonesia Taiwan and South Korea

The Commerce Department issued the preliminary dumping rates for Indonesia at 1316 South Korea at 881-10141 and Taiwan at 902-1189 in May Final determinations will be issued by 8 November

Even so some producers from the countries under investigation continued to receive buying enquiries from the US amid the current tight supply situation

There will be some upcoming new capacities expected in Q3 as shown in table 2 that may bring about a more balanced supply to meet the demand

The US plant acquired by Far Eastern is estimated to restart in June-July which should also ease the supply tightness

Even with the new capacities and plant restarts market participants think it is unlikely that PET market will return to the oversupply situation seen in the previous years

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Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian PET markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 25Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 2

Our English-language report coverage includes

Styrene MEG Propylene

BTX Methanol Base Oil

BPA PE MTBE

Phenol PP Mixed AromaticsAcetone Oxo-Alcohol

Trusted industryintelligence for Chinarsquoscommodity marketsDevelopments in Chinarsquos petrochemicals industrycontinue to affect the global marketplace It istherefore vital for domestic and internationalmarket players to keep track of changes withinthe country to know where opportunities lie

ICIS has long been recognised as a reliablesource of information our locally-based expertscompile reports and analyses in English tosupport industry participants dealing with Chinamarkets or seeking to trade or invest

Pricing informationOur pricing data provide key insights into pricetrends in China to support your short-termdecision-making negotiations and analyses

bull Import and export spot and contract pricesbull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity

and upstreamdownstream marketsbull Data on inventory levels and price marginsbull Plant and production news

Petrochemicals Analytics SolutionsProviding our customers with a 360-degree view of the Chinese market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker - real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for thenext 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics - key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock anddo wnstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlooks

Available for key chemical commodities

wwwiciscomchina

Discover how we can meet your market information needs

enquiryiciscom

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESMONOETHYLENE GLYCOL (MEG)

ASIA MEG TO SEE DEMAND TAPERING LOWER SUPPLY IN EARLY H2By Eric Su

The Asian monoethylene glycol (MEG) market could see demand slowing down from the end of June while supply will be reduced from a number of plant turnarounds

Inventories are expected to decline in June after offtake rates at Chinese main ports rose sharply in the last two weeks of May because of an uptick in demand from downstream polyester buyers

Demand for MEG is also expected to remain strong in the first half of June boosted by high polyester production rates of above 85 and modestly low inventory levels

A slowdown in demand may take place in the second half of June as the traditional manufacturing peak period nears its end in July

Meanwhile supply conditions could tighten because of the plant turnarounds in northeast Asia

However supply from the Middle East will likely resume to normal levels given that there were no further delay in shipments in May

MEG prices in Asia have registered year-on-year growth rates in the months to June this year

MEG prices have mostly hovered above $900tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China Main Port (CMP) while prices were mostly below $900tonne CFR CMP in 2017

Prices have been volatile in 2018 with major price swings seen on a near monthly basis since February

MEG prices in first quarter of 2018 continued the uptrend seen in the fourth quarter of 2017 rising to $1030tonne CFR CMP in early March from $922tonne CFR

CMP in late December as the higher-than-expected growth in downstream polyester fuelled bullish market sentiment

Polyester growth in 2017 was estimated at above 10 beating an originally bearish expectation of 2-3

A price downtrend was observed in March with the MEG weekly average price losing nearly 10 of its value to $929tonne CFR CMP by end-March

The price decline coincided with a sharp influx of imported cargoes which was likely a result of over-procurement in January

Back to Quick Navigation | 26Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

and February when prices were trending upwards

March 2018 import volumes rose to nearly 1m tonnes a record three-year high according to official China customs data

MEG prices rebounded in April rising by around 9 from end-March to $1014tonne CFR CMP by end-April ahead of the traditional peak period for the downstream polyester sector The average polyester production rate rose to above 85 during the period

MEG also achieved its to-date weekly peak of $1042tonne CFR CMP in the week ending 20 April

Supply tightness was also observed in the Chinese domestic market because of shipment delays from the Middle East and logistical issues at China main ports over the same period

The lack of availability of prompt cargoes also led to an atypical price spread between April and May delivery parcels

Normally the spread between arrived-at-port and far-term arrival cargoes is at $0-10tonne CFR CMP but this widened to $20-30tonne CFR CMP This drove concerns of sharp price adjustments in May once April deliveries were fulfilled

These concerns came true as MEG prices

began to slide in May MEG weekly prices stood at $928tonne CFR CMP in the last week of May falling from $1003tonne CFR CMP in early May

High inventory levels have also weighed on MEG prices Inventory levels were above 900000 tonnes from early May onward rising to 938000 tonnes by in late March Most market participants deemed inventory levels above 900000 tonnes to be high

The increase in inventory levels in May were largely attributed to the arrival of Middle East shipments which were previously due for arrival in April

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian MEG markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 27Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSETHYLENE

NE ASIA ETHYLENE H2 OUTLOOK HINGES ON NEW SUPPLY SM PLANTBy Yeow Pei Lin

Northeast (NE) Asiarsquos ethylene (C2) second-half 2018 outlook is uncertain as several crackers are scheduled for maintenance but such production losses could be offset by the start up of a new plant and cargoes from outside the region

More than 20 crackers in Asia are slated to undergo maintenance in 2018 with the estimated capacity losses totalling more than 185m tonnes Most of the turnarounds in the first half of the year were concentrated in Japan ndash a key exporter to China

However several more companies are to carry out turnarounds in June and the rest of the year

The impact on the regional balance will depend on the start-up progress of a new facility in South Korea and on whether the strong exports from southeast Asia and Europe in the first half of 2018 will continue

Shipments from Yeosu South Korea will start to slow down in August ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at complexes in that region

Exports will recover by December when Lotte Chemical brings on-stream an added capacity of 200000 tonnesyear at its Yeosu cracker

The facility will undergo an expansion during a turnaround from late September to October

Shipments from Ulsan another petrochemical cluster in South Korea will grow in the second half of 2018

Newcomer S-Oil is expected to begin commercial operations at its residue upgrading complex (RUC) in Onsan in the second half of June

The companyrsquos entire ethylene output of up

to around 200000 tonnesyear is intended for the merchant market as it does not have any downstream plants

Exports from southeast Asian producers will continue to be driven by the higher value from ethylene sales in the ethylene versus polyethylene (PE) trade-off

There will however be supply constraints

Four crackers in the region will undergo

maintenance and the affected producers include ExxonMobil and PTT Global Chemicals (PTTGC) that were regular exporters in the first half of 2018

Exports from Europe will likely be influenced by the performance of the PE sector

The outlook for the PE market in Europe is uncertain given the growing prospect of competitively-priced exports from the new US plants

Back to Quick Navigation | 28Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Ethylene costs in the US have been at low levels since early 2018 as production growth outpaces that for consumption

Since late 2017 about 3m tonnesyear of new ethylene capacity and about 35m tonnesyear of new PE capacity have started up in the US

The new crackers have been running well but several of the new PE plants struggled to reach full operating rates

Exports from Saudi Arabia are expected to be constrained by increased domestic consumption

Petro Rabigh announced in April that the last few plants in its Phase 2 project including a 75000 tonneyear ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) unit have started up

The companyrsquos ethylene exports could fall further in the second half of 2018 following the completion of its PE plant maintenance shutdowns earlier in the year

Chinarsquos import demand is poised for further growth when a new 260000 tonneyear styrene monomer (SM) plant starts up in the third quarter as planned

Anhui Haoyuan Chemical will be operating the unit in Fuyang Anhui on a standalone basis as its plans to build a methanol-to-olefin (MTO) plant have been put on hold amid high methanol prices

The plant will require around 78000 tonnes of ethylene annually to operate at maximum capacity

Based on the above factors it was not immediately clear if the ethylene prices in the second half will follow the volatile trend they displayed in the first five months of 2018

NE Asia spot ethylene prices were volatile from January to May as the impact of a heavy regional cracker turnaround schedule and strong Chinese demand was at times outweighed by strong exports from southeast Asia the Middle East and Europe

The market started the year at above a two and a half year high of $1415tonne CFR (cost amp freight) NE Asia in early January

Subsequent transacted prices fluctuated within a low $1200stonne to mid $1300stonne CFR NE Asia band in the five months ended 31 May

Prices in the first quarter were initially weighed down by ample supply from producers in the Middle East and Asia due to a series of PE plant shutdowns - both planned and unplanned

That was despite strong pre-Lunar New Year holiday restocking activities in China

Demand was bolstered by the start up of a 500000 tonneyear non-integrated SM plant and generally healthy downstream margins for producers outside the PE sector

End-users were also keen to build up their inventories because of the slow progress in their 2018 term contract discussions ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at facilities of key exporters in the region

In addition a major ethylene oxide (EO) maker was seeking more import cargoes following a disruption in supply from its upstream MTO unit The plant was shut twice between late November and the first half of February because of high feedstock methanol costs

The market recovered in early March in line with the start of the annual cracker turnaround season in northeast Asia where

scheduled capacity losses in 2018 will be overall higher than the previous year

That explained why the countryrsquos exports from January to April slumped by 14 year-on-year to 201274 tonnes

In late April northeast Asiarsquos spot prices fell again after a surprisingly large quantity of deep-sea spot cargoes were sold into Asia for delivery between the middle of May and the first half of June

There were at least 55000-60000 tonnes of cargoes from Europe in addition to 11000 tonnes of US supply for that delivery period Europe was in a long position because of derivative maintenance shutdowns and production problems

Continued strong exports from southeast Asia owing to downstream production issues and the weak performance of the linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) market contributed to the downbeat sentiment

The ample supply outweighed Chinarsquos robust import demand

Buying interest in China was strong for April and May arrival cargoes on the back

Back to Quick Navigation | 29Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

of healthy downstream margins for certain downstream markets such as SM EO and monoethylene glycol (MEG)

Ethylene buyers in China were also keen to book deep-sea cargoes to offset the expected regional production losses from cracker turnarounds

Prices rebounded quickly in mid-May

aided by a bullish SM market and reduced domestic supply

Some MTO operators lowered production in May as high feedstock methanol costs led to squeezed margins while a key producer in east China lowered its cracker run rates unexpectedly

Sharp increases in feedstock naphtha costs

which tracked gains on crude oil futures also helped set a floor to the earlier price declines

By early June spot ethylene prices had touched a 20-week high raising questions on whether the market will see similar price volatility in the second half of 2018

Producers will turn hawkish if the outlook for crude and naphtha markets remains upbeat

Back to Quick Navigation | 30Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSPROPYLENE

TIGHT NE ASIA PROPYLENE SUPPLY TO LIMIT H2 PRICE FLUCTUATIONSBy Joson Ng

Tight propylene (C3) supply in northeast Asia amid a heavy turnaround schedule in 2018 will continue supporting regional prices of the material into the second half

Sellers are likely to continue passing on firmer costs to buyers which are wary of October when heavy propylene production losses are expected

Buyersrsquo resistance in the key China market would keep any further increase in propylene prices in check with some downstream producers considering cutting output due to high feedstock costs

At the start of June propylene prices have weakened ending the strong general uptrend since end-March amid weakness in Chinarsquos domestic market as demand softened due to turnarounds at downstream polypropylene (PP) plants

However the downward pressure on regional prices may be temporary as overall supply in Asia is expected to be tight

In early June spot propylene prices in northeast Asia were about 9 higher from the start of 2018 according to ICIS data

The year started on a bullish note fuelled by a heavier cracker turnaround schedule compared with 2017 and higher premium levels concluded for contract cargoes

The uptrend was sustained into February due to restocking activities in various import markets in northeast Asia before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February

Before the holidays some South Korean producers were convinced the market will experience supply shortage as both GS Caltexrsquos fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity and Yeochun NCCrsquos (YNCC) cracker ndash which can produce 280000 tonnesyear of propylene ndash were due for maintenance in February through to April

But propylene prices surprisingly weakened from 9 February to end-March without demand support from Chinarsquos weak PP market which struggled through sluggish sales and high inventory after the countryrsquos week-long Lunar New Year holiday

A renewed wave of scheduled turnarounds at regional plants tightened supply and drove up propylene prices in April and May

In Taiwan Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) took its residue fluid catalytic

Back to Quick Navigation | 31Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

cracking (RFCC) unit with a 350000 tonneyear propylene capacity off stream from 1 March to mid-April while CPC Corp shut its 100000 tonneyear FCC unit on 10 April and restarted in early June

In South Korea GS Caltex also had a turnaround at its FCC unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity from 19 February to 5 April

SK Advanced shut its propane dehydrogenated (PDH) unit with 600000 tonneyear propylene capacity on 21 April to early May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian propylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 32Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

To talk to someone about price forecast reports call the numbers below or email us at salesukiciscomAsia-Pacific Europe Africa and Middle East The AmericasTel +65 6789 8828 Tel +44 20 8652 3335 Tel +1 713 525 2600 or Toll free +1 888 525 3255 (US and Canada only)

ICIS price forecast reportsSupply demand and price trends at a glance

ICIS price forecast reports provide a clear view of prices and supply and demand trends for the next 12 months Packed with vital information the report includes everything you need to assess where the market is heading and the impact or opportunity that presents for your business

To find out more or take a trial visit wwwiciscompriceforecast

Price Forecast Window

ICIS price forecasts are now available on the Dashboard channel using the Price Forecast Window which will enable users to

n Chart the price forecast against the last (rolling) twelve months of related price history

n Plot the last 12 months to view forecast progression and ICIS forecast accuracy

n Convert data into different currencies and units and download this data into Excel in order to easily enter into your own calculations

How price forecast reports can help youn Understand the marketUse ICIS price forecast reports to understand where the market is heading and identify the risks and the opportunities for your business What are the major demand developments for your product n Safeguard commercial decisionsUse market information to make better-informed business decisions relating to supply and demand Learn about changes in market capacities What factors will affect supply for you n Budgeting and planningWhether you are planning how much you will be spending in the short-to medium or even long term use the price forecast reports to help assess future prices for your product What will the price of your product be in six monthsrsquo time

Price forecast reports currently

available

Available as price forecast windows only

Polypropylene

Polyethylene

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StyrenePolystyrene

Methanol

Ethylene

Propylene

Styrene

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3

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3

OLEFINSBUTADIENE

ASIA BD TO FLUCTUATE IN H2 AS SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE SHIFTSBy Helen Yan

Asiarsquos butadiene (BD) spot prices for July shipments are likely to face downward pressure but any price downtrend is likely to reverse when cracker turnarounds start to kick in from September onwards

BD prices are expected to be weighed down before seeing support again in the third quarter as the supply and demand balance shifts during this period

The fourth quarter will likely see support for BD prices although the increases may be tempered by resistance from the downstream synthetic rubber (SR) makers to any significant price hikes

The busy cracker turnaround season in September-November will likely see supply tightening at the same time that demand is expected to pick up during this period

Several crackers and BD units including South Korearsquos Lotte Chemical LG Chem and Chinarsquos Shanghai Secco and Maoming Petrochemical are scheduled to shut during

the September to November time frame

In the near term BD spot prices are likely to continue to trend lower as demand wanes while supply at the same time is expected to lengthen due to an influx of deep-sea cargoes and regional cracker restarts

More than 15000 tonnes of deep-sea cargoes from EU are expected to arrive in Asia in June and July at the same time that crackers in Asia including Indiarsquos Haldia Petrochemical and Indonesiarsquos Chandra Asri resume their production following their maintenance shutdowns

On 8 June spot prices fell to $1725tonne CFR (cost amp freight) northeast (NE) Asia the second consecutive week of decline after spiralling upwards in the two months since early April

BD spot prices had increased by more than 40 since early April peaking at $1800tonne CFR NE Asia on 25 May

Strong demand from derivative acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) makers which were running their plants at optimal rates had bolstered the BD price upsurge during this period

However derivative styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) and polybutadiene rubber (PBR) producers the key consumers of BD cut their production output given the continued erosion in margins

Several major SBR and PBR producers said their margins had fallen into negative territory and retreated from the BD spot market in June

Chinese spot appetite in particular tapered off as domestic BD prices were lower compared with the US dollar-denominated import prices

In China Hangzhou Zhechen Jilin Petrochemical Zhejiang Transfar and Shen Hua Chemical were some of the SBR and PBR plants that are shut for maintenance in June and July

Several SBR and PBR plants in Taiwan and South Korea were also running at lower rates following the 40 BD price spike in the two months from early April to end-May

In South Korea major SR producer Korea Kumho Petrochemical PC was running its SBR and PBR plants at reduced rates

Back to Quick Navigation | 33Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian butadiene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 34Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Similarly Taiwanrsquos TSRC also cut the production output of its SBR and PBR plants

The outlook for the fourth quarter is expected to see a different turn of events with SBR and PBR plants resuming their production and ramping up their operating rates while supply during the last quarter is expected to tighten from the heavy cracker turnaround season

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYETHYLENE (PE)

SOUTHEAST ASIA PE MARKET FACES LONGER H2 SUPPLY WEAK DEMANDBy Felita Widjaja

Southeast Asiarsquos polyethylene (PE) market may be facing longer supply in the second half hinging on how the US-China trade spat plays out amid the regionrsquos weakening demand for imports

Global PE trade flows will be affected should China the biggest importer of spot PE cargoes in the world decide to impose retaliatory 25 tariff on US cargoes

Southeast Asia as an alternative buying region might be hard pressed to absorb additional supply from the US where massive PE capacities recently started up which were meant to cater to huge Chinese demand

Around 5m tonnes of additional US PE capacities are expected from several major projects including those in the pipeline to start up within the second half of 2018

China primarily imports PE cargoes from Asia and the Middle East while the US is its sixth leading PE supplier in 2017

ldquoEventually more substantial and regular volume of US [PE] cargoes are expected to be traded in Asia in the second half of the year as we have yet to see them in the first half of this yearrdquo said a regional trader

Any changes in trade flows would pose challenges to US suppliers in the short term as they would need to revamp their logistics and distribution channels to redirect cargoes to other markets

Suppliers from the Middle East meanwhile might take the opportunity to supply more cargoes to China and would mean fewer volumes available to the southeast Asian market

The Middle East is southeast Asiarsquos major PE supplier

Demand for PE imports in southeast Asia has been weak amid lower prices in

Back to Quick Navigation | 35Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

the domestic markets as in the case of Thailand

ldquoThai traders are not keen to import as local prices are more competitive so they do not have the margin to sell the imported cargoes in local market Only some converters who need specific cargoes continue to importrdquo said a local Thai trader

Malaysia and Indonesia with predominantly Muslim populations have seen market activity slow down since mid-May when the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan started Ramadan ends with the Eid ul-Fitr holiday on 15 June

The Indonesian government has declared a longer Eid-ul Fitr holiday this year from 11-20 June

Markets in Singapore and the Philippines will be closed for the mid-June holiday as well

With supply expected to become long some market players expect regional PE prices in July and August to ease from

June with restocking activities expected to kick in towards the end of the third quarter

In the first half of 2018 southeast Asiarsquos average prices for commodity PE were largely stable to firm owing to suppliersrsquo relatively comfortable-to-tight supply for most of the period

At the start of June high density polyethylene (HDPE) film grade prices averaged $1395tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia while linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) film were at $1210tonne CFR SE Asia and $1265tonne CFR SE Asia respectively according to ICIS data

Prices had spiked in the first quarter as suppliers were holding comfortable-to-tight inventory as several regional producers have scheduled turnarounds at their plants in March Production issues and shutdowns in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia also limited availability of imports to southeast Asia during this period

Supply for HDPE film was particularly tight as some producers from the Middle East as well as Asia switched their focus into making HDPE pipe grade amid robust demand and better netbacks

The price uptrend across most PE grades could not be sustained in the second quarter although prices remained relatively stable-to-firm

The depreciation of local currencies in southeast Asia against the US dollar in most of the second quarter was also curbing overall demand for imports A weaker currency makes US dollar-denominated imports expensive

ldquoIndonesian buyers have not been buying much cargoes as the market slowed down during Ramadan and also because of weak rupiah which led the central bank to increase interest rate to limit the depreciationrdquo said a regional producer

CHINA PE IMPORTS TO STAY STRONG AMID DOMESTIC PLANT TURNAROUNDS By Angie Li

Chinarsquos polyethylene (PE) imports are expected to remain strong for the rest of the year after posting record volumes in January to April 2018 amid scheduled turnarounds at domestic facilities

Buyers in China have been accumulating imported PE cargoes as these were priced lower compared futures prices since the start of the year

More cargoes will be available to China as new capacities in the US are expected to boost production

For the month of May the countryrsquos PE imports are projected to reach 12m tonnes higher than the monthly average in the first four months of 2018

In January to April 2018 its PE imports volumes totaled 447m tonnes up by 12 from the previous corresponding period according to industry sources

The import volumes were making up for the production losses in the domestic market due to scheduled turnarounds

On 1 June low density PE (LDPE) imports were assessed at $1155-1180tonne linear low density PE (LLDPE) stood at $1150-1170tonne while high density PE (HDPE) film products were at $1340-1400tonne according to ICIS data

The prices have increased 15-62 from end-March but the gains came in lower than market playersrsquo expectations considering the heavy production loss due to turnarounds from April

Back to Quick Navigation | 36Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

An estimated 500000 tonnes are expected to be shaved in the second quarter due to scheduled maintenance at domestic facilities according ICIS data

ldquoWe thought the hefty plant turnarounds in the second quarter should lead to a surge in PE prices but the LDPE and LLDPE prices were less than satisfactory although HDPE prices [were] highrdquo said an east China-based trader referring to both the import and domestic PE prices

Strong imports amid hedging activities bloated the total supply in China in January to April to 998m tonnes up by 8 from the previous corresponding period with supply of LDPE and LLDPE up by 14 and 8 respectively market sources said

Imports of HDPE inched up by 2 over the same period given the gradersquos comparatively higher prices compared with LLDPE and LDPE

Increased availability due to recent capacity expansions and start-ups in Asia the Middle East also fuels Chinarsquos appetite for import cargoes

In the first quarter of 2018 additional cargoes from Saudi Arabia were mostly from Sadara Chemical which started up its 750000 tonneyear swing plant and 350000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Al Jubail during late 2016 and early 2017 respectively

Cargoes of Iran origin augmented the total volume from the UAE as market players try to go around the financial sanctions on Tehran Kordestan Petrochemicalrsquos 300000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Iran came on stream in March 2017

UAErsquos Borouge has also ramped up pipe and HDPE film exports to China during the period according to a supplier in the Middle East

Meanwhile PE imports from Singapore surged 38 year on year while those from India more than doubled to 127000 tonnes according to China Customs data

The ban on waste plastics implemented in China in the year also bolstered imports of virgin PE Some waste plastics processed overseas and then re-entered the market as virgin products but these volumes were limited

Last year China has imported 194m tonnes of PE waste plastics while

volumes in 2018 will be negligible with the implemention of the ban

Chinarsquos PE production this year is expected to increase by around 7 to about 17m tonnes in 2018 with imports projected to grow by 102 to around 13m tonnes according to a source from state-owned petrochemical giant PetroChina

Domestic demand for PE on the other hand is forecast to grow by 8 this year mainly from the packaging and pipe markets

Chinarsquos ongoing campaign to switch to using gas for power generation instead of coal is expected to continue boosting demand for PE gas pipes this year

The packaging industry will also drive up PE consumption underpinned by growth in electronic commerce Chinarsquos express delivery volumes reached 137bn packages during January-April 2018 based on data from the recent China Express Industry Development Conference in May

Back to Quick Navigation | 37Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 38Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

By Jonathan Lopez

ICIS NewsThe leading news service for real-time ground breaking news and analysis on the global petrochemicals markets

The ICIS News services give you unrivalled access to the most in-depth stories impacting the petrochemicals markets influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions

Our team of global editors are reporting around the clock to bring you the latest news and analysis so that you get the full picture of market and pricing developments first providing you with invaluable foresight to take advantage of every opportunity and to stay ahead of your competitors

With ICIS News you will be the first to read

Breaking news on the chemical markets that will impact your business

News on market moves deals and announcements that will affect your organisation

Force majeures closures and developments that influence your commodity prices

Expert analysis on industry trends and hot topics ndash know whatrsquos happening and why

Searchable archive with over 14 million articles from the past 10 years

Chemical Business News Base (CBNB) is a premium resource available on ICIS News It provides you with an extensive external source of upstream and downstream petrochemical news in summarised snapshots so you can quickly and easily get the latest updates on whatrsquos important to you

CBNB offers readers

Fast and consistent coverage on news facts figures from the upstream and downstream petrochemicals industry

Access to over 700 news sources including technical and trade journals company literature market research reports stockbroker reports books and directories

User-friendly search functionality to find articles most relevant to you from around the globe

Quick and easy-to-read summarised snapshots of articles with option to access full articles from the original source

ICIS Chemical Business digital magazine (ICB) Our global team of experts digests and summarises the key issues and their potential impact on the chemical markets offering a comprehensive overview of the key developments that matter most-along with informed opinion and in-depth analysis

ICB features include

In-depth insight into chemical price changes and their impact on the markets

Understand the detail behind the headline news stories

Find out about supply amp demand trends and the factors impacting them

Get the complete picture of the chemical markets ndash all in one e-magazine

Easy access via e-magazine and premium magazine website

Find out more wwwiciscomnews

ICIS News offers access to additional sources including the ICIS Chemical Business Magazine and Chemical Business News Base (CBNB)

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYPROPYLENE (PP)

SE ASIA PP PRICES MAY COME UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 AS SUPPLY LENGTHENSBy Leanne Tan

Southeast Asiarsquos polypropylene (PP) market may come under pressure in the second half of the year on account of lengthening regional supply and weak downstream demand

Spot prices have been on the rise for most of May buoyed by bullish sentiment in the Chinese market and firm upstream feedstock costs

Margins for PP makers have been lower on average compared with levels in the previous year

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refinery amp Petrochemicals is scheduled to start up its 400000 tonneyear PP production unit in the third quarter The project was initially scheduled to start up in the first quarter of 2018

While domestic demand will continue to outstrip local production the countryrsquos reliance on imports may be diminished when the new plant starts up

Converters in the country have been opting to keep inventories lean in the short term amid expectations that prices may eventually weaken when more domestic supply becomes available

ldquoBuyers donrsquot want to buy too much import cargoes now not just because prices are high but also because there will be more locally-produced materials very soonrdquo a Vietnamese trader said

In Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan is expected to start commercial production at its expanded PP facility in Pasir Gudang in June or July The plantrsquos capacity will be raised by 200000 tonnesyear from 400000 tonnesyear

Import availabilities from South Korea are expected to lengthen in the medium-to-long term with S-Oil expected to complete an olefin downstream complex (ODC) at its Onsan refinery in Ulsan which will include a

405000 tonneyear PP capacity

On the demand front weakness is likely to persist in the second half with converters and end-users likely to continue buying spot cargoes on a hand-to-mouth basis

Indonesiarsquos demand in particular has been below expectations since the start of 2018 and this is likely to continue in the second half of the year according to market players

Back to Quick Navigation | 39Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Some players said import demand for dutiable cargoes may increase in the second half of the year as this is typically when the government issues duty exemption facilities

The duty exemption facilities are issued on a yearly basis which enable converters to import some PP volumes without extra cost

In Malaysia the removal of the 6 goods and services tax (GST) so far has had no immediate impact on the PP market although there are some expectations the move could potentially boost demand in the consumer market further down the road

In Vietnam demand for PP flat yarn has entered a seasonal lull from May to early July and will not pick up until August when the summer harvest begins

PP is widely used in the manufacture of woven sacks (for rice sacks) flexible packaging carpets household appliances and automotive parts

Spot PP prices in southeast Asia have been an uptrend for most of the first half

The PP market begun the year on a bullish note with spot prices surging by almost 10 over the course of two months all-origins PP flat yarn prices peaked at $1295tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia on 2 March

Healthy demand in China helped to provide support to spot prices in southeast Asia in the first quarter with a tight global spot supply leading to further price escalations

Some suppliers pulled back from the southeast Asian spot market to capitalise on better netbacks in other countries including Japan and Pakistan leading to further curtailed spot availability in southeast Asia

The market rally started to lose steam in early March amid subdued demand and a build-up of domestic inventories in China after the Lunar New Year holidays

The bearish sentiment soon spilled over into southeast Asia with Chinese suppliers pushing some volumes into southeast Asia amid an open arbitrage window

Vietnam remains the market of choice for Chinese exporters and PP import prices in the country plummeted as the result of the lengthened spot availability

However the bearish run was short-lived and prices soon bottomed out in early April

Bullish momentum in the upstream crude and naphtha markets propelled spot prices of polymers higher

Despite lacklustre downstream demand price hikes in April and May were commonplace as producers sought higher asking prices in view of narrower margins

TIGHT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT CHINA PP MARKET DESPITE WEAK DEMANDBy Dora Xue

Tight supply would buoy up Chinarsquos polypropylene (PP) prices in the near term despite weak downstream demand

The market is expecting heavy production losses following recent unexpected outages at five domestic facilities from May and scheduled turnarounds at other plants

In the week ended on 1 June domestic prices for PP flat yarn in east China were assessed at Chinese yuan (CNY) 9075tonne after a steady increase from early April according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos import prices for the same material stood at $1245tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China largely tracking movement in the domestic market over the past two months according to ICIS data

The strong PP prices have also started to deter buyers from purchasing more spot cargoes

ldquoPP prices are too high We donrsquot want to store too much in our warehouserdquo a buyer said

Downstream demand typically goes on a lull in June and July but any downward pressure on prices will be negated by a further tightening of supply as major plants will be taken off line for maintenance

ldquoWhen the maintenance season finishes in late June [PP] prices may start to go downrdquo a trader said

Demand is considered weakest at Qingdao in the eastern Shandong province due to government-mandated production cuts and logistics restrictions ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (SCO Summit) on 9-10 June

As of 1 June the combined polyolefin inventories of Chinese petrochemical majors Sinopec and PetroChina have declined back to normal levels of 700000 tonnes from a high of 1m tonnes in early March market sources said

Import supply to China may not improve in the short term as suppliers still deem other

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markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

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The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 17: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

AROMATICSTOLUENE

CHINA IMPORTS TO UNDERPIN ASIA TOLUENE MARKET IN H2 2018By Trixie Yap

Asiarsquos toluene market direction in the second half of this year will be determined by the buying activity from Chinese importers which has been the key factor influencing its prices so far in 2018

FOB (free on board) Korea prices which have been fluctuating in a wider-than-expected range for the past month closed at $760-785tonne in the week ended 1 June for June and July-loading parcels

The decreases at the close on 1 June marked the end of three weeksrsquo worth of stable-to-firm price trend

This followed weaker import demand from China for July which mainly stemmed from the ending of traders replenishing shore tank inventories at eastern ports such as Jiangsu

CFR (cost amp freight) China prices were in a sideways trend for most parts of early 2018 up to March at $690-765tonne

Prices only picked up after April and hit a peak of $835tonne CFR China after fluctuating in the $700-710tonne CFR China range for a few weeks

Unlike earlier expectations when market players were hoping for Chinese import demand to peak after the post early-March Lunar New Year period CFR China buying activity remained muted and only rose after May because of improved demand from the gasoline blenders

Blending demand received a boost because of lower gasoline production from state-owned refineries amid a spate of turnarounds in China ndash mainly in the eastern regions ndash starting end April to June

The better blending economics for toluene in early May particularly for the oil majors paved the way for demand as well

Back to Quick Navigation | 15Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Toluene-isomer xylenes spread on an ex-tank basis was wider with toluene being much more price friendly for gasoline production as compared to isomer xylene

With the 1 May implementation of a new online tax-filing system for oil and chemical products oil majors had no choice but to buy blend stocks themselves

Back to Quick Navigation | 16Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

instead of gasoline cargoes directly as the government was effectively making private gasoline blending activities unworkable as these blenders will not be able to potentially avoid tax payments via the paper filing system now

The presence of higher-than-expected inventories at east China main ports ndash stock levels hit a high of 76700 tonnes in early March ndash contributed further to the later timing of import demand Inventories only fell significantly after April (see chart above)

The only key issue hampering import demand from improving further was the

generally weak off taking activities from the downstream chemical sectors as isocynates benzoic acid benzyl chloride and other types of solvent products

The downstream demand was hampered because of low and unchanged operating rates because of stricter environmental regulations imposed by the government since second-half 2017

Looking ahead however the bleak demand situation for toluene from the chemical downstream sector could reverse soon starting August-September because of Wan Hua Chemicalrsquos new TDI plant start-up

The TDI plantsrsquo nameplate capacity is currently 300000 tonnesyear which could equate to around 160000 tonnesyear of toluene usage according to several market players

While this may not directly represent an increase in demand for CFR China import toluene cargoes it is likely to boost domestic toluene demand within north China particularly Shandong region and allow for potential arbitrage flows within the country

This in turn may support import parity of yuan-denominated ex-tank prices and allow for healthy distributor margins ndash if they consider to buy CFR China cargoes which is a key driver for majority of these import buyers

Market participants in China were quick to note also that supply increments ndash following at least three new plant start-ups this year ndash will outpace demand increments whichcould pose a problem in determining whichwill have a larger impact on import demandand prices

ldquoThe additional capacities may not be sold into the merchant market because there will still be captive usage since these producers are refineries with gasoline requirements and fulfilmentsrdquo one east China-based trader said

Ultimately it will be dependent on how the internal consumption for gasoline ndash of these new start-ups ndash will pan out leading up to the year-end

Changes in average operating rates of state-owned refineries due to turnarounds or outages will be another direction driver

Aside from China demand-supply fundamentals the other key price driver is the supply balance within Asia

Supply has been generally long between January and May owing to the stable operating plant rates and overall sufficient availability in southeast Asia a key net exporter within the region

Availability of northeast Asian cargoes was curtailed at some points in time ndash particularly in February and March ndashbecause of turnarounds

Back to Quick Navigation | 17Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 18Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

However supply has been steadily rising for cargoes loading in May and June ndash with the market seeing an additional of close to 30000 tonnes of product from South Korea alone ndash as some downstream plants had ongoing shutdown plans all the way till early July (see right)

All of these cargoes as expected are heading to China because of the opened arbitrage window for exports during the same time period

The increment in excess spot supply from South Korea ndash going forward ndash will be driven by downstream spreads for TDP operators since the benzene-toluene spreads have been narrowing consistently from March when the spreads hit a peak

The healthy spreads between toluene and xylenes (para and isomer) have been the only saving grace for the TDP market

ldquoBenzene demand-supply fundamentals are likely to continue remaining weak with increments in supply still expected from Middle East and Vietnam from June so that is going to still put pressure on TDP operators whether to run their unit with more toluene or less toluene [since they can adjust the amount of feedstock]rdquo one northeast Asian end-user said

ldquoBenzene demand-supply fundamentals are likely to continue remaining weak with increments in supply still expected from Middle East and Vietnam from June so that is going to still put pressure on TDP operators whether to run their unit with more toluene or less toluene [since they can adjust the amount of feedstock]rdquo one northeast Asian end-user said

There is also hope that supply will be curbed again in the autumn season ndash when several plants start their planned maintenances ndash to provide a temporary relief to the readily sufficient spot availability

Ultimately if Chinarsquos importing activity continues to be robust there will be no issues with them soaking up the excess supplies at any point of time

ldquoThe key issue is how much these buyers can procure and how long their buying activities can last but so far it has been very sporadic and capped to short time frames because of them being risk averserdquo one southeast Asian trader said

Back to Quick Navigation | 19Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian toluene markets

BASE OILSBASE OILS

ASIA MIDEAST BASE OILS FIRM IN H1 BUT SOME PULLBACK LIKELY IN H2By Jasmine Khoo amp Izham Ahmad

Asia base oils Group I SN150 and Group II 150N prices are expected to remain firm on persistently low supply whereas the heavy grades - Group I SN500 and Group II 500600N - could come under pressure on ample availability

Into the second half of the year base oils supply from Iran are expected to be stable with no known maintenance plans due over the following few months from June and that could add further pressure on prices amid the weak demand outlook

Only one Iranian refiner is due for a maintenance shutdown in the second half of the year possibly sometime in September according to market sources

In Group II like in Asia short supply of 150N and 500600N is expected to support prices in coming months but the Group II segment in the Middle East is a much smaller market for producers

Major Group II and III producers in Saudi Arabia Qatar Bahrain and UAE also continue to focus on their traditional markets outside of the Middle East due to stronger demand and higher margins

Brightstock remained largely stable for June in terms of pricing following deals done at parity with Mayrsquos levels but market players maintained a cautious stance towards brightstock pricing which would typically see downward pressure towards the end of the year

The winter season in parts of Asia would typically herald a period of slow cargo uptake for brightstock as transportation logistics get more challenging

As for Group III base oils northeast Asian-origin lots are expected to see support in spot prices from June as seen from healthy uptake among buyers amid short supply from regional suppliers

Similarly in the Middle East market Group I prices started the year on a firm note

Around mid-February SN500 prices traded up to $80750tonne FOB (free on board) Iran their highest levels since ICIS began tracking the data in November 2015

SN150 also traded their record highs about the same time hitting $72750tonne FOB Iran

These record highs were held until early May despite buyers at the time showing increasing resistance to the higher levels and the uncertainty that took hold of the market ahead of a deadline for the US to decide on whether it would remain in the Iran nuclear deal

On 8 May US president Donald Trump announced that the US will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal and re-impose sanctions on Tehran consequently driving up crude prices to new highs since late 2014

Iranrsquos base oils prices were largely stable in that week but market outlook has been clouded with uncertainties following the USrsquo decision to re-impose sanctions on the country

Group I SN500 prices were stable through the early half of May at $780-805tonne FOB Iran while Group I SN150 were holding at $710-745tonne FOB Iran since early-February according to ICIS data

Prices began to decline around mid-May when it became more apparent that the increased sanctions would cause at least some disruptions to business dealings with Iranian entities

Market players said they encountered difficulties in financial transactions with Iran and many financial institutions were reluctant to take on any dealings involving Iran-based businesses for fear of conflicting with the US sanctions

On the supply side market players in the UAE said there were sufficient cargoes built up over recent months and as such

there was less demand for further spot deals in Group I particularly with the threat of renewed sanctions

Mid-May also marked the start of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan which is a typically slow season for the Middle East

Certain manufacturing activities are reduced as factories observed shorter operating hours and as many workers took some vacation time as well

The Eid ul-Fitr long holidays followed the end of Ramadan in mid-June

Asiarsquos base oils market trends for certain widely-traded Group I grades snapped out of persistent uptrend in late April against a backdrop of increasingly squeezed buyersrsquo margins and waning demand

Steady gains in FOB Asia spot prices were recorded since September 2017 on the back of regional shortages as demand surpassed output

This was partly fuelled by natural disasters in the US when Hurricane Harvey disrupted between 20 and 25 of the countryrsquos refining capacity in August

The disruption to base oils production at some units led to increased appetite for deep-sea shipments from Asia to the US

In the current market SN500 prices registered the greatest drops among the ICIS assessed grades shedding slightly more than 12 of its spot pricing between 13 April and 25 May ICIS data showed

Market participants attributed the price dip to lackluster demand brought about by a supply overhang of domestically-produced SN400 in the local Chinese market

Competitive pricing of SN400 amid ample availability curtailed import appetite among China-based buyers for SN500 of Asian origin especially since some buyers were still holding on to sufficient stocks for the near term

Back to Quick Navigation | 20Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Brightstock prices also softened reflecting increasingly squeezed buyersrsquo margins following steep gains seen from 22 September 2017 to 23 March 2018 in FOB Asia export prices

Some buyers were also sitting on sufficient inventories from active procurement earlier in the year leading to waned demand

This led refiners and traders to cut offers to encourage cargo uptake for May shipment cargoes

Group II 150N and 500600N prices largely held up on the back of potential supply woes in the summer season amid scheduled shutdowns at major Asian refineries

Taiwanrsquos Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) is expected to conduct planned maintenance in July market sources said

This led market players to hold on to expectations of buoyed spot prices for Group II base oils in the near term though significant increase is not expected for certain grades such as 500600N amid ample spot availability in the region

Group III 4 and 6cst base oils largely continued their steady price uptrend reflecting short supply among key South Korean Group III suppliers

8cst base oils of northeast Asian origin amid comparatively greater availability than its lighter counterparts saw less gains in prices since the beginning of 2018

South Korean-origin Group III base oils prices were mostly buoyant despite an influx of Middle East-origin Group III base oils into the northeast Asian market since November 2017 as South Korean-origin Group III users adhered largely to using the same material due to formulation restrictions and related OEM approvals

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian base oils markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 21Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPURIFIED TEREPHTHALIC ACID (PTA)

ASIA PTA SUPPLY TO LENGTHEN IN H2 ON INDIA CHINA PLANT START-UPSBy Samuel Wong

Supply of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in Asia is expected to lengthen in the second half of 2018 as new capacities will start up in the major markets of India and China amid a slowdown in demand

Major plants would have resumed production after unplanned outages to ease the current global supply tightness that has been driving up Asian prices while demand typically weakens in the third quarter

Asian PTA prices may start to come under pressure as fresh supply will hit the markets when new major regional plants start production in the third quarter

ldquoMarket sentiment is currently pessimistic about the outlook however this can quickly change if we see a sudden uptick in downstream demandrdquo a China-based producer said

In India JBF Grouprsquos 125m tonneyear PTA unit in Mangalore is expected to start up in the third quarter although the schedule is still fluid according to several market participants

In China Fuhaichuang Petrochemical formerly known as Dragon Aromatics (Zhangzhou) is planning to resume operations at its complex in the third quarter of 2018 after a prolonged shutdown

Its petrochemical complex in Zhangzhou has a 45m tonneyear PTA plant comprisings three 15m tonneyear lines two of which have been in operation since end-2017 The company is likely to restart the third line once smooth operations at its upstream paraxylene (PX) unit at the site is achieved market players said

In Europe Indorama Ventures Portugal plans to start up in July an idled 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Sines Thailand-based Indorama Ventures Ltd acquired the

plant from Portuguese Artlant PTA in late 2017

All these factors should see the narrowing of the price gap between Chinarsquos import and domestic markets as early as July after widening steadily from March to May

As of 12 June the gap stood at $96tonne down from the peak of about $111tonne on 30 May

Asiarsquos PTA prices are currently steady at firm levels Regional end-users preferred to procure cargoes on a need-to basis and were not keen on building inventories

Future movement will depend on market conditions in the downstream polyester industry

The wide price gap in Chinarsquos import and domestic markets has been deterring Chinese buyers from tapping the international spot market for supplies since March while demand was healthy especially in the downstream polyethylene terephthalate (PET) markets

Tight global supply in the first half saw Asian producers shipping out cargoes to the Middle East as well as Europe which was hit by unplanned outages in Belgium and Poland in April

Back to Quick Navigation | 22Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

In Europe BP Chemical on 15 April declared a force majeure at its Belgium PTA unit and a second force majeure on 17 May PKN Orlen on 23 April declared a force majeure at its Wloclawek PTA unit in Poland which was subsequently lifted on 2 May with spot cargoes from the plant limited until after a planned maintenance in SeptemberOctober 2018

Within Asia the southeastern region has had PTA plant outages and had to procure cargoes from the northeast in the preceding two months

Regional supply tightened further with the unexpected shutdown of Hanwha General Chemicalrsquos 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Daesan prompting a force majeure declaration on 21 May

In the first half of 2018 strong growth in demand in the downstream polyester markets in Asia particularly China supported the rally in PTA prices amid tight supply

Downstream polyester markets were enjoying positive margins keeping demand for feedstock PTA healthy

In the key China market operating rates at polyester units were higher compared with the previous year

The countryrsquos PTA production losses in January-June 2018 on the other hand were estimated at around 134m tonnes due to planned and unplanned outages

Asiarsquos PTA producers were largely enjoying healthy margins on the back of steady demand growth in the downstream polyester markets Firmer upstream energy

and feedstock PX prices have also buoyed PTA prices

In January to May 2018 Brent crude traded at $6692-7616bbl up by about 25 year

on year while PX prices were at $938-994tonne representing a 15 increase over the same period

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian purified terephthalic acid (PTA)) markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 23Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPOLYETHYLENE TEREPHTHALATE (PET)

ASIA PET TO REMAIN FIRM IN Q3 AS TIGHT SUPPLY SUPPORT PRICESBy Hazel Goh

Asian polyethylene terephthalate (PET) market is likely to remain firm in the third quarter on the back of tight supply a trend that has supported prices so far in 2018

Recently PET tight supply is a result of production cuts in Asia and Europe that have not had a clear estimated date of resuming normal operations

China Resources Packaging had cut production at its PET lines in Changzhou by 50 following notice from the government to reduce pollution in end-May It is not known for how long the production cuts will remain in place

In Europe there had been feedstock purified terephthalic acid (PTA) supply tightness leading to recent PET production cuts and force majeure by Novapet and JBF respectively

Many buyers had been purchasing on a need-to basis expecting that firm prices are unsustainable and will come down Subsequently they did not stock up cargoes ahead of the peak summer demand season for countries in the northern hemisphere

The reality turned out different and they had to accept higher prices as production cuts kept the supply tight

PET used to track feedstock price movements closely as it had been an oversupplied market and producers typically operate on thin margins

The oversupply situation changed and tightness was first felt in the third quarter of 2017 when plant closures by JBF RAK in the UAE and Belgium and by Mossi amp Ghisolfi (MampG) in the US Mexico and Brazil following financial tightness in the two PET-producing companies

Hurricane Harvey that hit the US in the third quarter led to further production cuts in the US

Back to Quick Navigation | 24Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 1

From then on supply remained tight as the plant under JBF RAK in the UAE and the former MampG plant in the US that had been acquired by Far Eastern remained shut for extended period of time even into 2018

Market players previously had concerns about where China will export its material when final anti-dumping duties (ADD) - heard to be at the same level as thepreliminary duties of 398-530 - wereimposed on its cargoes into Japan inJanuary

Japan was the top exporting destination for Chinese cargoes before the ADD following which the exports dropped drastically

While other producers such as Taiwanese southeast Asian Indian and South Korean producers sold more volumes into Japan Chinese makers sold to other markets that were relinquished by the other producers

Table 1 shows a significant difference between 2016 and 2017 in Chinarsquos export volumes to key destinations from the January-to-March period

Ranked by volume starting with largestvolume as 1

There is an ongoing anti-dumping duty (ADD) investigation by the US on PET cargoes from Brazil Pakistan Indonesia Taiwan and South Korea

The Commerce Department issued the preliminary dumping rates for Indonesia at 1316 South Korea at 881-10141 and Taiwan at 902-1189 in May Final determinations will be issued by 8 November

Even so some producers from the countries under investigation continued to receive buying enquiries from the US amid the current tight supply situation

There will be some upcoming new capacities expected in Q3 as shown in table 2 that may bring about a more balanced supply to meet the demand

The US plant acquired by Far Eastern is estimated to restart in June-July which should also ease the supply tightness

Even with the new capacities and plant restarts market participants think it is unlikely that PET market will return to the oversupply situation seen in the previous years

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian PET markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 25Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 2

Our English-language report coverage includes

Styrene MEG Propylene

BTX Methanol Base Oil

BPA PE MTBE

Phenol PP Mixed AromaticsAcetone Oxo-Alcohol

Trusted industryintelligence for Chinarsquoscommodity marketsDevelopments in Chinarsquos petrochemicals industrycontinue to affect the global marketplace It istherefore vital for domestic and internationalmarket players to keep track of changes withinthe country to know where opportunities lie

ICIS has long been recognised as a reliablesource of information our locally-based expertscompile reports and analyses in English tosupport industry participants dealing with Chinamarkets or seeking to trade or invest

Pricing informationOur pricing data provide key insights into pricetrends in China to support your short-termdecision-making negotiations and analyses

bull Import and export spot and contract pricesbull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity

and upstreamdownstream marketsbull Data on inventory levels and price marginsbull Plant and production news

Petrochemicals Analytics SolutionsProviding our customers with a 360-degree view of the Chinese market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker - real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for thenext 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics - key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock anddo wnstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlooks

Available for key chemical commodities

wwwiciscomchina

Discover how we can meet your market information needs

enquiryiciscom

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESMONOETHYLENE GLYCOL (MEG)

ASIA MEG TO SEE DEMAND TAPERING LOWER SUPPLY IN EARLY H2By Eric Su

The Asian monoethylene glycol (MEG) market could see demand slowing down from the end of June while supply will be reduced from a number of plant turnarounds

Inventories are expected to decline in June after offtake rates at Chinese main ports rose sharply in the last two weeks of May because of an uptick in demand from downstream polyester buyers

Demand for MEG is also expected to remain strong in the first half of June boosted by high polyester production rates of above 85 and modestly low inventory levels

A slowdown in demand may take place in the second half of June as the traditional manufacturing peak period nears its end in July

Meanwhile supply conditions could tighten because of the plant turnarounds in northeast Asia

However supply from the Middle East will likely resume to normal levels given that there were no further delay in shipments in May

MEG prices in Asia have registered year-on-year growth rates in the months to June this year

MEG prices have mostly hovered above $900tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China Main Port (CMP) while prices were mostly below $900tonne CFR CMP in 2017

Prices have been volatile in 2018 with major price swings seen on a near monthly basis since February

MEG prices in first quarter of 2018 continued the uptrend seen in the fourth quarter of 2017 rising to $1030tonne CFR CMP in early March from $922tonne CFR

CMP in late December as the higher-than-expected growth in downstream polyester fuelled bullish market sentiment

Polyester growth in 2017 was estimated at above 10 beating an originally bearish expectation of 2-3

A price downtrend was observed in March with the MEG weekly average price losing nearly 10 of its value to $929tonne CFR CMP by end-March

The price decline coincided with a sharp influx of imported cargoes which was likely a result of over-procurement in January

Back to Quick Navigation | 26Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

and February when prices were trending upwards

March 2018 import volumes rose to nearly 1m tonnes a record three-year high according to official China customs data

MEG prices rebounded in April rising by around 9 from end-March to $1014tonne CFR CMP by end-April ahead of the traditional peak period for the downstream polyester sector The average polyester production rate rose to above 85 during the period

MEG also achieved its to-date weekly peak of $1042tonne CFR CMP in the week ending 20 April

Supply tightness was also observed in the Chinese domestic market because of shipment delays from the Middle East and logistical issues at China main ports over the same period

The lack of availability of prompt cargoes also led to an atypical price spread between April and May delivery parcels

Normally the spread between arrived-at-port and far-term arrival cargoes is at $0-10tonne CFR CMP but this widened to $20-30tonne CFR CMP This drove concerns of sharp price adjustments in May once April deliveries were fulfilled

These concerns came true as MEG prices

began to slide in May MEG weekly prices stood at $928tonne CFR CMP in the last week of May falling from $1003tonne CFR CMP in early May

High inventory levels have also weighed on MEG prices Inventory levels were above 900000 tonnes from early May onward rising to 938000 tonnes by in late March Most market participants deemed inventory levels above 900000 tonnes to be high

The increase in inventory levels in May were largely attributed to the arrival of Middle East shipments which were previously due for arrival in April

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian MEG markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 27Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSETHYLENE

NE ASIA ETHYLENE H2 OUTLOOK HINGES ON NEW SUPPLY SM PLANTBy Yeow Pei Lin

Northeast (NE) Asiarsquos ethylene (C2) second-half 2018 outlook is uncertain as several crackers are scheduled for maintenance but such production losses could be offset by the start up of a new plant and cargoes from outside the region

More than 20 crackers in Asia are slated to undergo maintenance in 2018 with the estimated capacity losses totalling more than 185m tonnes Most of the turnarounds in the first half of the year were concentrated in Japan ndash a key exporter to China

However several more companies are to carry out turnarounds in June and the rest of the year

The impact on the regional balance will depend on the start-up progress of a new facility in South Korea and on whether the strong exports from southeast Asia and Europe in the first half of 2018 will continue

Shipments from Yeosu South Korea will start to slow down in August ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at complexes in that region

Exports will recover by December when Lotte Chemical brings on-stream an added capacity of 200000 tonnesyear at its Yeosu cracker

The facility will undergo an expansion during a turnaround from late September to October

Shipments from Ulsan another petrochemical cluster in South Korea will grow in the second half of 2018

Newcomer S-Oil is expected to begin commercial operations at its residue upgrading complex (RUC) in Onsan in the second half of June

The companyrsquos entire ethylene output of up

to around 200000 tonnesyear is intended for the merchant market as it does not have any downstream plants

Exports from southeast Asian producers will continue to be driven by the higher value from ethylene sales in the ethylene versus polyethylene (PE) trade-off

There will however be supply constraints

Four crackers in the region will undergo

maintenance and the affected producers include ExxonMobil and PTT Global Chemicals (PTTGC) that were regular exporters in the first half of 2018

Exports from Europe will likely be influenced by the performance of the PE sector

The outlook for the PE market in Europe is uncertain given the growing prospect of competitively-priced exports from the new US plants

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Ethylene costs in the US have been at low levels since early 2018 as production growth outpaces that for consumption

Since late 2017 about 3m tonnesyear of new ethylene capacity and about 35m tonnesyear of new PE capacity have started up in the US

The new crackers have been running well but several of the new PE plants struggled to reach full operating rates

Exports from Saudi Arabia are expected to be constrained by increased domestic consumption

Petro Rabigh announced in April that the last few plants in its Phase 2 project including a 75000 tonneyear ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) unit have started up

The companyrsquos ethylene exports could fall further in the second half of 2018 following the completion of its PE plant maintenance shutdowns earlier in the year

Chinarsquos import demand is poised for further growth when a new 260000 tonneyear styrene monomer (SM) plant starts up in the third quarter as planned

Anhui Haoyuan Chemical will be operating the unit in Fuyang Anhui on a standalone basis as its plans to build a methanol-to-olefin (MTO) plant have been put on hold amid high methanol prices

The plant will require around 78000 tonnes of ethylene annually to operate at maximum capacity

Based on the above factors it was not immediately clear if the ethylene prices in the second half will follow the volatile trend they displayed in the first five months of 2018

NE Asia spot ethylene prices were volatile from January to May as the impact of a heavy regional cracker turnaround schedule and strong Chinese demand was at times outweighed by strong exports from southeast Asia the Middle East and Europe

The market started the year at above a two and a half year high of $1415tonne CFR (cost amp freight) NE Asia in early January

Subsequent transacted prices fluctuated within a low $1200stonne to mid $1300stonne CFR NE Asia band in the five months ended 31 May

Prices in the first quarter were initially weighed down by ample supply from producers in the Middle East and Asia due to a series of PE plant shutdowns - both planned and unplanned

That was despite strong pre-Lunar New Year holiday restocking activities in China

Demand was bolstered by the start up of a 500000 tonneyear non-integrated SM plant and generally healthy downstream margins for producers outside the PE sector

End-users were also keen to build up their inventories because of the slow progress in their 2018 term contract discussions ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at facilities of key exporters in the region

In addition a major ethylene oxide (EO) maker was seeking more import cargoes following a disruption in supply from its upstream MTO unit The plant was shut twice between late November and the first half of February because of high feedstock methanol costs

The market recovered in early March in line with the start of the annual cracker turnaround season in northeast Asia where

scheduled capacity losses in 2018 will be overall higher than the previous year

That explained why the countryrsquos exports from January to April slumped by 14 year-on-year to 201274 tonnes

In late April northeast Asiarsquos spot prices fell again after a surprisingly large quantity of deep-sea spot cargoes were sold into Asia for delivery between the middle of May and the first half of June

There were at least 55000-60000 tonnes of cargoes from Europe in addition to 11000 tonnes of US supply for that delivery period Europe was in a long position because of derivative maintenance shutdowns and production problems

Continued strong exports from southeast Asia owing to downstream production issues and the weak performance of the linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) market contributed to the downbeat sentiment

The ample supply outweighed Chinarsquos robust import demand

Buying interest in China was strong for April and May arrival cargoes on the back

Back to Quick Navigation | 29Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

of healthy downstream margins for certain downstream markets such as SM EO and monoethylene glycol (MEG)

Ethylene buyers in China were also keen to book deep-sea cargoes to offset the expected regional production losses from cracker turnarounds

Prices rebounded quickly in mid-May

aided by a bullish SM market and reduced domestic supply

Some MTO operators lowered production in May as high feedstock methanol costs led to squeezed margins while a key producer in east China lowered its cracker run rates unexpectedly

Sharp increases in feedstock naphtha costs

which tracked gains on crude oil futures also helped set a floor to the earlier price declines

By early June spot ethylene prices had touched a 20-week high raising questions on whether the market will see similar price volatility in the second half of 2018

Producers will turn hawkish if the outlook for crude and naphtha markets remains upbeat

Back to Quick Navigation | 30Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSPROPYLENE

TIGHT NE ASIA PROPYLENE SUPPLY TO LIMIT H2 PRICE FLUCTUATIONSBy Joson Ng

Tight propylene (C3) supply in northeast Asia amid a heavy turnaround schedule in 2018 will continue supporting regional prices of the material into the second half

Sellers are likely to continue passing on firmer costs to buyers which are wary of October when heavy propylene production losses are expected

Buyersrsquo resistance in the key China market would keep any further increase in propylene prices in check with some downstream producers considering cutting output due to high feedstock costs

At the start of June propylene prices have weakened ending the strong general uptrend since end-March amid weakness in Chinarsquos domestic market as demand softened due to turnarounds at downstream polypropylene (PP) plants

However the downward pressure on regional prices may be temporary as overall supply in Asia is expected to be tight

In early June spot propylene prices in northeast Asia were about 9 higher from the start of 2018 according to ICIS data

The year started on a bullish note fuelled by a heavier cracker turnaround schedule compared with 2017 and higher premium levels concluded for contract cargoes

The uptrend was sustained into February due to restocking activities in various import markets in northeast Asia before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February

Before the holidays some South Korean producers were convinced the market will experience supply shortage as both GS Caltexrsquos fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity and Yeochun NCCrsquos (YNCC) cracker ndash which can produce 280000 tonnesyear of propylene ndash were due for maintenance in February through to April

But propylene prices surprisingly weakened from 9 February to end-March without demand support from Chinarsquos weak PP market which struggled through sluggish sales and high inventory after the countryrsquos week-long Lunar New Year holiday

A renewed wave of scheduled turnarounds at regional plants tightened supply and drove up propylene prices in April and May

In Taiwan Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) took its residue fluid catalytic

Back to Quick Navigation | 31Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

cracking (RFCC) unit with a 350000 tonneyear propylene capacity off stream from 1 March to mid-April while CPC Corp shut its 100000 tonneyear FCC unit on 10 April and restarted in early June

In South Korea GS Caltex also had a turnaround at its FCC unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity from 19 February to 5 April

SK Advanced shut its propane dehydrogenated (PDH) unit with 600000 tonneyear propylene capacity on 21 April to early May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian propylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 32Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

To talk to someone about price forecast reports call the numbers below or email us at salesukiciscomAsia-Pacific Europe Africa and Middle East The AmericasTel +65 6789 8828 Tel +44 20 8652 3335 Tel +1 713 525 2600 or Toll free +1 888 525 3255 (US and Canada only)

ICIS price forecast reportsSupply demand and price trends at a glance

ICIS price forecast reports provide a clear view of prices and supply and demand trends for the next 12 months Packed with vital information the report includes everything you need to assess where the market is heading and the impact or opportunity that presents for your business

To find out more or take a trial visit wwwiciscompriceforecast

Price Forecast Window

ICIS price forecasts are now available on the Dashboard channel using the Price Forecast Window which will enable users to

n Chart the price forecast against the last (rolling) twelve months of related price history

n Plot the last 12 months to view forecast progression and ICIS forecast accuracy

n Convert data into different currencies and units and download this data into Excel in order to easily enter into your own calculations

How price forecast reports can help youn Understand the marketUse ICIS price forecast reports to understand where the market is heading and identify the risks and the opportunities for your business What are the major demand developments for your product n Safeguard commercial decisionsUse market information to make better-informed business decisions relating to supply and demand Learn about changes in market capacities What factors will affect supply for you n Budgeting and planningWhether you are planning how much you will be spending in the short-to medium or even long term use the price forecast reports to help assess future prices for your product What will the price of your product be in six monthsrsquo time

Price forecast reports currently

available

Available as price forecast windows only

Polypropylene

Polyethylene

Benzene

StyrenePolystyrene

Methanol

Ethylene

Propylene

Styrene

Asia Europe US Global

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

OLEFINSBUTADIENE

ASIA BD TO FLUCTUATE IN H2 AS SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE SHIFTSBy Helen Yan

Asiarsquos butadiene (BD) spot prices for July shipments are likely to face downward pressure but any price downtrend is likely to reverse when cracker turnarounds start to kick in from September onwards

BD prices are expected to be weighed down before seeing support again in the third quarter as the supply and demand balance shifts during this period

The fourth quarter will likely see support for BD prices although the increases may be tempered by resistance from the downstream synthetic rubber (SR) makers to any significant price hikes

The busy cracker turnaround season in September-November will likely see supply tightening at the same time that demand is expected to pick up during this period

Several crackers and BD units including South Korearsquos Lotte Chemical LG Chem and Chinarsquos Shanghai Secco and Maoming Petrochemical are scheduled to shut during

the September to November time frame

In the near term BD spot prices are likely to continue to trend lower as demand wanes while supply at the same time is expected to lengthen due to an influx of deep-sea cargoes and regional cracker restarts

More than 15000 tonnes of deep-sea cargoes from EU are expected to arrive in Asia in June and July at the same time that crackers in Asia including Indiarsquos Haldia Petrochemical and Indonesiarsquos Chandra Asri resume their production following their maintenance shutdowns

On 8 June spot prices fell to $1725tonne CFR (cost amp freight) northeast (NE) Asia the second consecutive week of decline after spiralling upwards in the two months since early April

BD spot prices had increased by more than 40 since early April peaking at $1800tonne CFR NE Asia on 25 May

Strong demand from derivative acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) makers which were running their plants at optimal rates had bolstered the BD price upsurge during this period

However derivative styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) and polybutadiene rubber (PBR) producers the key consumers of BD cut their production output given the continued erosion in margins

Several major SBR and PBR producers said their margins had fallen into negative territory and retreated from the BD spot market in June

Chinese spot appetite in particular tapered off as domestic BD prices were lower compared with the US dollar-denominated import prices

In China Hangzhou Zhechen Jilin Petrochemical Zhejiang Transfar and Shen Hua Chemical were some of the SBR and PBR plants that are shut for maintenance in June and July

Several SBR and PBR plants in Taiwan and South Korea were also running at lower rates following the 40 BD price spike in the two months from early April to end-May

In South Korea major SR producer Korea Kumho Petrochemical PC was running its SBR and PBR plants at reduced rates

Back to Quick Navigation | 33Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian butadiene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 34Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Similarly Taiwanrsquos TSRC also cut the production output of its SBR and PBR plants

The outlook for the fourth quarter is expected to see a different turn of events with SBR and PBR plants resuming their production and ramping up their operating rates while supply during the last quarter is expected to tighten from the heavy cracker turnaround season

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYETHYLENE (PE)

SOUTHEAST ASIA PE MARKET FACES LONGER H2 SUPPLY WEAK DEMANDBy Felita Widjaja

Southeast Asiarsquos polyethylene (PE) market may be facing longer supply in the second half hinging on how the US-China trade spat plays out amid the regionrsquos weakening demand for imports

Global PE trade flows will be affected should China the biggest importer of spot PE cargoes in the world decide to impose retaliatory 25 tariff on US cargoes

Southeast Asia as an alternative buying region might be hard pressed to absorb additional supply from the US where massive PE capacities recently started up which were meant to cater to huge Chinese demand

Around 5m tonnes of additional US PE capacities are expected from several major projects including those in the pipeline to start up within the second half of 2018

China primarily imports PE cargoes from Asia and the Middle East while the US is its sixth leading PE supplier in 2017

ldquoEventually more substantial and regular volume of US [PE] cargoes are expected to be traded in Asia in the second half of the year as we have yet to see them in the first half of this yearrdquo said a regional trader

Any changes in trade flows would pose challenges to US suppliers in the short term as they would need to revamp their logistics and distribution channels to redirect cargoes to other markets

Suppliers from the Middle East meanwhile might take the opportunity to supply more cargoes to China and would mean fewer volumes available to the southeast Asian market

The Middle East is southeast Asiarsquos major PE supplier

Demand for PE imports in southeast Asia has been weak amid lower prices in

Back to Quick Navigation | 35Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

the domestic markets as in the case of Thailand

ldquoThai traders are not keen to import as local prices are more competitive so they do not have the margin to sell the imported cargoes in local market Only some converters who need specific cargoes continue to importrdquo said a local Thai trader

Malaysia and Indonesia with predominantly Muslim populations have seen market activity slow down since mid-May when the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan started Ramadan ends with the Eid ul-Fitr holiday on 15 June

The Indonesian government has declared a longer Eid-ul Fitr holiday this year from 11-20 June

Markets in Singapore and the Philippines will be closed for the mid-June holiday as well

With supply expected to become long some market players expect regional PE prices in July and August to ease from

June with restocking activities expected to kick in towards the end of the third quarter

In the first half of 2018 southeast Asiarsquos average prices for commodity PE were largely stable to firm owing to suppliersrsquo relatively comfortable-to-tight supply for most of the period

At the start of June high density polyethylene (HDPE) film grade prices averaged $1395tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia while linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) film were at $1210tonne CFR SE Asia and $1265tonne CFR SE Asia respectively according to ICIS data

Prices had spiked in the first quarter as suppliers were holding comfortable-to-tight inventory as several regional producers have scheduled turnarounds at their plants in March Production issues and shutdowns in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia also limited availability of imports to southeast Asia during this period

Supply for HDPE film was particularly tight as some producers from the Middle East as well as Asia switched their focus into making HDPE pipe grade amid robust demand and better netbacks

The price uptrend across most PE grades could not be sustained in the second quarter although prices remained relatively stable-to-firm

The depreciation of local currencies in southeast Asia against the US dollar in most of the second quarter was also curbing overall demand for imports A weaker currency makes US dollar-denominated imports expensive

ldquoIndonesian buyers have not been buying much cargoes as the market slowed down during Ramadan and also because of weak rupiah which led the central bank to increase interest rate to limit the depreciationrdquo said a regional producer

CHINA PE IMPORTS TO STAY STRONG AMID DOMESTIC PLANT TURNAROUNDS By Angie Li

Chinarsquos polyethylene (PE) imports are expected to remain strong for the rest of the year after posting record volumes in January to April 2018 amid scheduled turnarounds at domestic facilities

Buyers in China have been accumulating imported PE cargoes as these were priced lower compared futures prices since the start of the year

More cargoes will be available to China as new capacities in the US are expected to boost production

For the month of May the countryrsquos PE imports are projected to reach 12m tonnes higher than the monthly average in the first four months of 2018

In January to April 2018 its PE imports volumes totaled 447m tonnes up by 12 from the previous corresponding period according to industry sources

The import volumes were making up for the production losses in the domestic market due to scheduled turnarounds

On 1 June low density PE (LDPE) imports were assessed at $1155-1180tonne linear low density PE (LLDPE) stood at $1150-1170tonne while high density PE (HDPE) film products were at $1340-1400tonne according to ICIS data

The prices have increased 15-62 from end-March but the gains came in lower than market playersrsquo expectations considering the heavy production loss due to turnarounds from April

Back to Quick Navigation | 36Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

An estimated 500000 tonnes are expected to be shaved in the second quarter due to scheduled maintenance at domestic facilities according ICIS data

ldquoWe thought the hefty plant turnarounds in the second quarter should lead to a surge in PE prices but the LDPE and LLDPE prices were less than satisfactory although HDPE prices [were] highrdquo said an east China-based trader referring to both the import and domestic PE prices

Strong imports amid hedging activities bloated the total supply in China in January to April to 998m tonnes up by 8 from the previous corresponding period with supply of LDPE and LLDPE up by 14 and 8 respectively market sources said

Imports of HDPE inched up by 2 over the same period given the gradersquos comparatively higher prices compared with LLDPE and LDPE

Increased availability due to recent capacity expansions and start-ups in Asia the Middle East also fuels Chinarsquos appetite for import cargoes

In the first quarter of 2018 additional cargoes from Saudi Arabia were mostly from Sadara Chemical which started up its 750000 tonneyear swing plant and 350000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Al Jubail during late 2016 and early 2017 respectively

Cargoes of Iran origin augmented the total volume from the UAE as market players try to go around the financial sanctions on Tehran Kordestan Petrochemicalrsquos 300000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Iran came on stream in March 2017

UAErsquos Borouge has also ramped up pipe and HDPE film exports to China during the period according to a supplier in the Middle East

Meanwhile PE imports from Singapore surged 38 year on year while those from India more than doubled to 127000 tonnes according to China Customs data

The ban on waste plastics implemented in China in the year also bolstered imports of virgin PE Some waste plastics processed overseas and then re-entered the market as virgin products but these volumes were limited

Last year China has imported 194m tonnes of PE waste plastics while

volumes in 2018 will be negligible with the implemention of the ban

Chinarsquos PE production this year is expected to increase by around 7 to about 17m tonnes in 2018 with imports projected to grow by 102 to around 13m tonnes according to a source from state-owned petrochemical giant PetroChina

Domestic demand for PE on the other hand is forecast to grow by 8 this year mainly from the packaging and pipe markets

Chinarsquos ongoing campaign to switch to using gas for power generation instead of coal is expected to continue boosting demand for PE gas pipes this year

The packaging industry will also drive up PE consumption underpinned by growth in electronic commerce Chinarsquos express delivery volumes reached 137bn packages during January-April 2018 based on data from the recent China Express Industry Development Conference in May

Back to Quick Navigation | 37Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 38Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

By Jonathan Lopez

ICIS NewsThe leading news service for real-time ground breaking news and analysis on the global petrochemicals markets

The ICIS News services give you unrivalled access to the most in-depth stories impacting the petrochemicals markets influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions

Our team of global editors are reporting around the clock to bring you the latest news and analysis so that you get the full picture of market and pricing developments first providing you with invaluable foresight to take advantage of every opportunity and to stay ahead of your competitors

With ICIS News you will be the first to read

Breaking news on the chemical markets that will impact your business

News on market moves deals and announcements that will affect your organisation

Force majeures closures and developments that influence your commodity prices

Expert analysis on industry trends and hot topics ndash know whatrsquos happening and why

Searchable archive with over 14 million articles from the past 10 years

Chemical Business News Base (CBNB) is a premium resource available on ICIS News It provides you with an extensive external source of upstream and downstream petrochemical news in summarised snapshots so you can quickly and easily get the latest updates on whatrsquos important to you

CBNB offers readers

Fast and consistent coverage on news facts figures from the upstream and downstream petrochemicals industry

Access to over 700 news sources including technical and trade journals company literature market research reports stockbroker reports books and directories

User-friendly search functionality to find articles most relevant to you from around the globe

Quick and easy-to-read summarised snapshots of articles with option to access full articles from the original source

ICIS Chemical Business digital magazine (ICB) Our global team of experts digests and summarises the key issues and their potential impact on the chemical markets offering a comprehensive overview of the key developments that matter most-along with informed opinion and in-depth analysis

ICB features include

In-depth insight into chemical price changes and their impact on the markets

Understand the detail behind the headline news stories

Find out about supply amp demand trends and the factors impacting them

Get the complete picture of the chemical markets ndash all in one e-magazine

Easy access via e-magazine and premium magazine website

Find out more wwwiciscomnews

ICIS News offers access to additional sources including the ICIS Chemical Business Magazine and Chemical Business News Base (CBNB)

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYPROPYLENE (PP)

SE ASIA PP PRICES MAY COME UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 AS SUPPLY LENGTHENSBy Leanne Tan

Southeast Asiarsquos polypropylene (PP) market may come under pressure in the second half of the year on account of lengthening regional supply and weak downstream demand

Spot prices have been on the rise for most of May buoyed by bullish sentiment in the Chinese market and firm upstream feedstock costs

Margins for PP makers have been lower on average compared with levels in the previous year

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refinery amp Petrochemicals is scheduled to start up its 400000 tonneyear PP production unit in the third quarter The project was initially scheduled to start up in the first quarter of 2018

While domestic demand will continue to outstrip local production the countryrsquos reliance on imports may be diminished when the new plant starts up

Converters in the country have been opting to keep inventories lean in the short term amid expectations that prices may eventually weaken when more domestic supply becomes available

ldquoBuyers donrsquot want to buy too much import cargoes now not just because prices are high but also because there will be more locally-produced materials very soonrdquo a Vietnamese trader said

In Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan is expected to start commercial production at its expanded PP facility in Pasir Gudang in June or July The plantrsquos capacity will be raised by 200000 tonnesyear from 400000 tonnesyear

Import availabilities from South Korea are expected to lengthen in the medium-to-long term with S-Oil expected to complete an olefin downstream complex (ODC) at its Onsan refinery in Ulsan which will include a

405000 tonneyear PP capacity

On the demand front weakness is likely to persist in the second half with converters and end-users likely to continue buying spot cargoes on a hand-to-mouth basis

Indonesiarsquos demand in particular has been below expectations since the start of 2018 and this is likely to continue in the second half of the year according to market players

Back to Quick Navigation | 39Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Some players said import demand for dutiable cargoes may increase in the second half of the year as this is typically when the government issues duty exemption facilities

The duty exemption facilities are issued on a yearly basis which enable converters to import some PP volumes without extra cost

In Malaysia the removal of the 6 goods and services tax (GST) so far has had no immediate impact on the PP market although there are some expectations the move could potentially boost demand in the consumer market further down the road

In Vietnam demand for PP flat yarn has entered a seasonal lull from May to early July and will not pick up until August when the summer harvest begins

PP is widely used in the manufacture of woven sacks (for rice sacks) flexible packaging carpets household appliances and automotive parts

Spot PP prices in southeast Asia have been an uptrend for most of the first half

The PP market begun the year on a bullish note with spot prices surging by almost 10 over the course of two months all-origins PP flat yarn prices peaked at $1295tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia on 2 March

Healthy demand in China helped to provide support to spot prices in southeast Asia in the first quarter with a tight global spot supply leading to further price escalations

Some suppliers pulled back from the southeast Asian spot market to capitalise on better netbacks in other countries including Japan and Pakistan leading to further curtailed spot availability in southeast Asia

The market rally started to lose steam in early March amid subdued demand and a build-up of domestic inventories in China after the Lunar New Year holidays

The bearish sentiment soon spilled over into southeast Asia with Chinese suppliers pushing some volumes into southeast Asia amid an open arbitrage window

Vietnam remains the market of choice for Chinese exporters and PP import prices in the country plummeted as the result of the lengthened spot availability

However the bearish run was short-lived and prices soon bottomed out in early April

Bullish momentum in the upstream crude and naphtha markets propelled spot prices of polymers higher

Despite lacklustre downstream demand price hikes in April and May were commonplace as producers sought higher asking prices in view of narrower margins

TIGHT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT CHINA PP MARKET DESPITE WEAK DEMANDBy Dora Xue

Tight supply would buoy up Chinarsquos polypropylene (PP) prices in the near term despite weak downstream demand

The market is expecting heavy production losses following recent unexpected outages at five domestic facilities from May and scheduled turnarounds at other plants

In the week ended on 1 June domestic prices for PP flat yarn in east China were assessed at Chinese yuan (CNY) 9075tonne after a steady increase from early April according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos import prices for the same material stood at $1245tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China largely tracking movement in the domestic market over the past two months according to ICIS data

The strong PP prices have also started to deter buyers from purchasing more spot cargoes

ldquoPP prices are too high We donrsquot want to store too much in our warehouserdquo a buyer said

Downstream demand typically goes on a lull in June and July but any downward pressure on prices will be negated by a further tightening of supply as major plants will be taken off line for maintenance

ldquoWhen the maintenance season finishes in late June [PP] prices may start to go downrdquo a trader said

Demand is considered weakest at Qingdao in the eastern Shandong province due to government-mandated production cuts and logistics restrictions ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (SCO Summit) on 9-10 June

As of 1 June the combined polyolefin inventories of Chinese petrochemical majors Sinopec and PetroChina have declined back to normal levels of 700000 tonnes from a high of 1m tonnes in early March market sources said

Import supply to China may not improve in the short term as suppliers still deem other

Back to Quick Navigation | 40Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

Back to Quick Navigation | 43Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 18: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

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instead of gasoline cargoes directly as the government was effectively making private gasoline blending activities unworkable as these blenders will not be able to potentially avoid tax payments via the paper filing system now

The presence of higher-than-expected inventories at east China main ports ndash stock levels hit a high of 76700 tonnes in early March ndash contributed further to the later timing of import demand Inventories only fell significantly after April (see chart above)

The only key issue hampering import demand from improving further was the

generally weak off taking activities from the downstream chemical sectors as isocynates benzoic acid benzyl chloride and other types of solvent products

The downstream demand was hampered because of low and unchanged operating rates because of stricter environmental regulations imposed by the government since second-half 2017

Looking ahead however the bleak demand situation for toluene from the chemical downstream sector could reverse soon starting August-September because of Wan Hua Chemicalrsquos new TDI plant start-up

The TDI plantsrsquo nameplate capacity is currently 300000 tonnesyear which could equate to around 160000 tonnesyear of toluene usage according to several market players

While this may not directly represent an increase in demand for CFR China import toluene cargoes it is likely to boost domestic toluene demand within north China particularly Shandong region and allow for potential arbitrage flows within the country

This in turn may support import parity of yuan-denominated ex-tank prices and allow for healthy distributor margins ndash if they consider to buy CFR China cargoes which is a key driver for majority of these import buyers

Market participants in China were quick to note also that supply increments ndash following at least three new plant start-ups this year ndash will outpace demand increments whichcould pose a problem in determining whichwill have a larger impact on import demandand prices

ldquoThe additional capacities may not be sold into the merchant market because there will still be captive usage since these producers are refineries with gasoline requirements and fulfilmentsrdquo one east China-based trader said

Ultimately it will be dependent on how the internal consumption for gasoline ndash of these new start-ups ndash will pan out leading up to the year-end

Changes in average operating rates of state-owned refineries due to turnarounds or outages will be another direction driver

Aside from China demand-supply fundamentals the other key price driver is the supply balance within Asia

Supply has been generally long between January and May owing to the stable operating plant rates and overall sufficient availability in southeast Asia a key net exporter within the region

Availability of northeast Asian cargoes was curtailed at some points in time ndash particularly in February and March ndashbecause of turnarounds

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However supply has been steadily rising for cargoes loading in May and June ndash with the market seeing an additional of close to 30000 tonnes of product from South Korea alone ndash as some downstream plants had ongoing shutdown plans all the way till early July (see right)

All of these cargoes as expected are heading to China because of the opened arbitrage window for exports during the same time period

The increment in excess spot supply from South Korea ndash going forward ndash will be driven by downstream spreads for TDP operators since the benzene-toluene spreads have been narrowing consistently from March when the spreads hit a peak

The healthy spreads between toluene and xylenes (para and isomer) have been the only saving grace for the TDP market

ldquoBenzene demand-supply fundamentals are likely to continue remaining weak with increments in supply still expected from Middle East and Vietnam from June so that is going to still put pressure on TDP operators whether to run their unit with more toluene or less toluene [since they can adjust the amount of feedstock]rdquo one northeast Asian end-user said

ldquoBenzene demand-supply fundamentals are likely to continue remaining weak with increments in supply still expected from Middle East and Vietnam from June so that is going to still put pressure on TDP operators whether to run their unit with more toluene or less toluene [since they can adjust the amount of feedstock]rdquo one northeast Asian end-user said

There is also hope that supply will be curbed again in the autumn season ndash when several plants start their planned maintenances ndash to provide a temporary relief to the readily sufficient spot availability

Ultimately if Chinarsquos importing activity continues to be robust there will be no issues with them soaking up the excess supplies at any point of time

ldquoThe key issue is how much these buyers can procure and how long their buying activities can last but so far it has been very sporadic and capped to short time frames because of them being risk averserdquo one southeast Asian trader said

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bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian toluene markets

BASE OILSBASE OILS

ASIA MIDEAST BASE OILS FIRM IN H1 BUT SOME PULLBACK LIKELY IN H2By Jasmine Khoo amp Izham Ahmad

Asia base oils Group I SN150 and Group II 150N prices are expected to remain firm on persistently low supply whereas the heavy grades - Group I SN500 and Group II 500600N - could come under pressure on ample availability

Into the second half of the year base oils supply from Iran are expected to be stable with no known maintenance plans due over the following few months from June and that could add further pressure on prices amid the weak demand outlook

Only one Iranian refiner is due for a maintenance shutdown in the second half of the year possibly sometime in September according to market sources

In Group II like in Asia short supply of 150N and 500600N is expected to support prices in coming months but the Group II segment in the Middle East is a much smaller market for producers

Major Group II and III producers in Saudi Arabia Qatar Bahrain and UAE also continue to focus on their traditional markets outside of the Middle East due to stronger demand and higher margins

Brightstock remained largely stable for June in terms of pricing following deals done at parity with Mayrsquos levels but market players maintained a cautious stance towards brightstock pricing which would typically see downward pressure towards the end of the year

The winter season in parts of Asia would typically herald a period of slow cargo uptake for brightstock as transportation logistics get more challenging

As for Group III base oils northeast Asian-origin lots are expected to see support in spot prices from June as seen from healthy uptake among buyers amid short supply from regional suppliers

Similarly in the Middle East market Group I prices started the year on a firm note

Around mid-February SN500 prices traded up to $80750tonne FOB (free on board) Iran their highest levels since ICIS began tracking the data in November 2015

SN150 also traded their record highs about the same time hitting $72750tonne FOB Iran

These record highs were held until early May despite buyers at the time showing increasing resistance to the higher levels and the uncertainty that took hold of the market ahead of a deadline for the US to decide on whether it would remain in the Iran nuclear deal

On 8 May US president Donald Trump announced that the US will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal and re-impose sanctions on Tehran consequently driving up crude prices to new highs since late 2014

Iranrsquos base oils prices were largely stable in that week but market outlook has been clouded with uncertainties following the USrsquo decision to re-impose sanctions on the country

Group I SN500 prices were stable through the early half of May at $780-805tonne FOB Iran while Group I SN150 were holding at $710-745tonne FOB Iran since early-February according to ICIS data

Prices began to decline around mid-May when it became more apparent that the increased sanctions would cause at least some disruptions to business dealings with Iranian entities

Market players said they encountered difficulties in financial transactions with Iran and many financial institutions were reluctant to take on any dealings involving Iran-based businesses for fear of conflicting with the US sanctions

On the supply side market players in the UAE said there were sufficient cargoes built up over recent months and as such

there was less demand for further spot deals in Group I particularly with the threat of renewed sanctions

Mid-May also marked the start of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan which is a typically slow season for the Middle East

Certain manufacturing activities are reduced as factories observed shorter operating hours and as many workers took some vacation time as well

The Eid ul-Fitr long holidays followed the end of Ramadan in mid-June

Asiarsquos base oils market trends for certain widely-traded Group I grades snapped out of persistent uptrend in late April against a backdrop of increasingly squeezed buyersrsquo margins and waning demand

Steady gains in FOB Asia spot prices were recorded since September 2017 on the back of regional shortages as demand surpassed output

This was partly fuelled by natural disasters in the US when Hurricane Harvey disrupted between 20 and 25 of the countryrsquos refining capacity in August

The disruption to base oils production at some units led to increased appetite for deep-sea shipments from Asia to the US

In the current market SN500 prices registered the greatest drops among the ICIS assessed grades shedding slightly more than 12 of its spot pricing between 13 April and 25 May ICIS data showed

Market participants attributed the price dip to lackluster demand brought about by a supply overhang of domestically-produced SN400 in the local Chinese market

Competitive pricing of SN400 amid ample availability curtailed import appetite among China-based buyers for SN500 of Asian origin especially since some buyers were still holding on to sufficient stocks for the near term

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Brightstock prices also softened reflecting increasingly squeezed buyersrsquo margins following steep gains seen from 22 September 2017 to 23 March 2018 in FOB Asia export prices

Some buyers were also sitting on sufficient inventories from active procurement earlier in the year leading to waned demand

This led refiners and traders to cut offers to encourage cargo uptake for May shipment cargoes

Group II 150N and 500600N prices largely held up on the back of potential supply woes in the summer season amid scheduled shutdowns at major Asian refineries

Taiwanrsquos Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) is expected to conduct planned maintenance in July market sources said

This led market players to hold on to expectations of buoyed spot prices for Group II base oils in the near term though significant increase is not expected for certain grades such as 500600N amid ample spot availability in the region

Group III 4 and 6cst base oils largely continued their steady price uptrend reflecting short supply among key South Korean Group III suppliers

8cst base oils of northeast Asian origin amid comparatively greater availability than its lighter counterparts saw less gains in prices since the beginning of 2018

South Korean-origin Group III base oils prices were mostly buoyant despite an influx of Middle East-origin Group III base oils into the northeast Asian market since November 2017 as South Korean-origin Group III users adhered largely to using the same material due to formulation restrictions and related OEM approvals

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Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian base oils markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 21Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPURIFIED TEREPHTHALIC ACID (PTA)

ASIA PTA SUPPLY TO LENGTHEN IN H2 ON INDIA CHINA PLANT START-UPSBy Samuel Wong

Supply of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in Asia is expected to lengthen in the second half of 2018 as new capacities will start up in the major markets of India and China amid a slowdown in demand

Major plants would have resumed production after unplanned outages to ease the current global supply tightness that has been driving up Asian prices while demand typically weakens in the third quarter

Asian PTA prices may start to come under pressure as fresh supply will hit the markets when new major regional plants start production in the third quarter

ldquoMarket sentiment is currently pessimistic about the outlook however this can quickly change if we see a sudden uptick in downstream demandrdquo a China-based producer said

In India JBF Grouprsquos 125m tonneyear PTA unit in Mangalore is expected to start up in the third quarter although the schedule is still fluid according to several market participants

In China Fuhaichuang Petrochemical formerly known as Dragon Aromatics (Zhangzhou) is planning to resume operations at its complex in the third quarter of 2018 after a prolonged shutdown

Its petrochemical complex in Zhangzhou has a 45m tonneyear PTA plant comprisings three 15m tonneyear lines two of which have been in operation since end-2017 The company is likely to restart the third line once smooth operations at its upstream paraxylene (PX) unit at the site is achieved market players said

In Europe Indorama Ventures Portugal plans to start up in July an idled 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Sines Thailand-based Indorama Ventures Ltd acquired the

plant from Portuguese Artlant PTA in late 2017

All these factors should see the narrowing of the price gap between Chinarsquos import and domestic markets as early as July after widening steadily from March to May

As of 12 June the gap stood at $96tonne down from the peak of about $111tonne on 30 May

Asiarsquos PTA prices are currently steady at firm levels Regional end-users preferred to procure cargoes on a need-to basis and were not keen on building inventories

Future movement will depend on market conditions in the downstream polyester industry

The wide price gap in Chinarsquos import and domestic markets has been deterring Chinese buyers from tapping the international spot market for supplies since March while demand was healthy especially in the downstream polyethylene terephthalate (PET) markets

Tight global supply in the first half saw Asian producers shipping out cargoes to the Middle East as well as Europe which was hit by unplanned outages in Belgium and Poland in April

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In Europe BP Chemical on 15 April declared a force majeure at its Belgium PTA unit and a second force majeure on 17 May PKN Orlen on 23 April declared a force majeure at its Wloclawek PTA unit in Poland which was subsequently lifted on 2 May with spot cargoes from the plant limited until after a planned maintenance in SeptemberOctober 2018

Within Asia the southeastern region has had PTA plant outages and had to procure cargoes from the northeast in the preceding two months

Regional supply tightened further with the unexpected shutdown of Hanwha General Chemicalrsquos 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Daesan prompting a force majeure declaration on 21 May

In the first half of 2018 strong growth in demand in the downstream polyester markets in Asia particularly China supported the rally in PTA prices amid tight supply

Downstream polyester markets were enjoying positive margins keeping demand for feedstock PTA healthy

In the key China market operating rates at polyester units were higher compared with the previous year

The countryrsquos PTA production losses in January-June 2018 on the other hand were estimated at around 134m tonnes due to planned and unplanned outages

Asiarsquos PTA producers were largely enjoying healthy margins on the back of steady demand growth in the downstream polyester markets Firmer upstream energy

and feedstock PX prices have also buoyed PTA prices

In January to May 2018 Brent crude traded at $6692-7616bbl up by about 25 year

on year while PX prices were at $938-994tonne representing a 15 increase over the same period

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian purified terephthalic acid (PTA)) markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 23Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPOLYETHYLENE TEREPHTHALATE (PET)

ASIA PET TO REMAIN FIRM IN Q3 AS TIGHT SUPPLY SUPPORT PRICESBy Hazel Goh

Asian polyethylene terephthalate (PET) market is likely to remain firm in the third quarter on the back of tight supply a trend that has supported prices so far in 2018

Recently PET tight supply is a result of production cuts in Asia and Europe that have not had a clear estimated date of resuming normal operations

China Resources Packaging had cut production at its PET lines in Changzhou by 50 following notice from the government to reduce pollution in end-May It is not known for how long the production cuts will remain in place

In Europe there had been feedstock purified terephthalic acid (PTA) supply tightness leading to recent PET production cuts and force majeure by Novapet and JBF respectively

Many buyers had been purchasing on a need-to basis expecting that firm prices are unsustainable and will come down Subsequently they did not stock up cargoes ahead of the peak summer demand season for countries in the northern hemisphere

The reality turned out different and they had to accept higher prices as production cuts kept the supply tight

PET used to track feedstock price movements closely as it had been an oversupplied market and producers typically operate on thin margins

The oversupply situation changed and tightness was first felt in the third quarter of 2017 when plant closures by JBF RAK in the UAE and Belgium and by Mossi amp Ghisolfi (MampG) in the US Mexico and Brazil following financial tightness in the two PET-producing companies

Hurricane Harvey that hit the US in the third quarter led to further production cuts in the US

Back to Quick Navigation | 24Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 1

From then on supply remained tight as the plant under JBF RAK in the UAE and the former MampG plant in the US that had been acquired by Far Eastern remained shut for extended period of time even into 2018

Market players previously had concerns about where China will export its material when final anti-dumping duties (ADD) - heard to be at the same level as thepreliminary duties of 398-530 - wereimposed on its cargoes into Japan inJanuary

Japan was the top exporting destination for Chinese cargoes before the ADD following which the exports dropped drastically

While other producers such as Taiwanese southeast Asian Indian and South Korean producers sold more volumes into Japan Chinese makers sold to other markets that were relinquished by the other producers

Table 1 shows a significant difference between 2016 and 2017 in Chinarsquos export volumes to key destinations from the January-to-March period

Ranked by volume starting with largestvolume as 1

There is an ongoing anti-dumping duty (ADD) investigation by the US on PET cargoes from Brazil Pakistan Indonesia Taiwan and South Korea

The Commerce Department issued the preliminary dumping rates for Indonesia at 1316 South Korea at 881-10141 and Taiwan at 902-1189 in May Final determinations will be issued by 8 November

Even so some producers from the countries under investigation continued to receive buying enquiries from the US amid the current tight supply situation

There will be some upcoming new capacities expected in Q3 as shown in table 2 that may bring about a more balanced supply to meet the demand

The US plant acquired by Far Eastern is estimated to restart in June-July which should also ease the supply tightness

Even with the new capacities and plant restarts market participants think it is unlikely that PET market will return to the oversupply situation seen in the previous years

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian PET markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 25Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 2

Our English-language report coverage includes

Styrene MEG Propylene

BTX Methanol Base Oil

BPA PE MTBE

Phenol PP Mixed AromaticsAcetone Oxo-Alcohol

Trusted industryintelligence for Chinarsquoscommodity marketsDevelopments in Chinarsquos petrochemicals industrycontinue to affect the global marketplace It istherefore vital for domestic and internationalmarket players to keep track of changes withinthe country to know where opportunities lie

ICIS has long been recognised as a reliablesource of information our locally-based expertscompile reports and analyses in English tosupport industry participants dealing with Chinamarkets or seeking to trade or invest

Pricing informationOur pricing data provide key insights into pricetrends in China to support your short-termdecision-making negotiations and analyses

bull Import and export spot and contract pricesbull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity

and upstreamdownstream marketsbull Data on inventory levels and price marginsbull Plant and production news

Petrochemicals Analytics SolutionsProviding our customers with a 360-degree view of the Chinese market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker - real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for thenext 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics - key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock anddo wnstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlooks

Available for key chemical commodities

wwwiciscomchina

Discover how we can meet your market information needs

enquiryiciscom

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESMONOETHYLENE GLYCOL (MEG)

ASIA MEG TO SEE DEMAND TAPERING LOWER SUPPLY IN EARLY H2By Eric Su

The Asian monoethylene glycol (MEG) market could see demand slowing down from the end of June while supply will be reduced from a number of plant turnarounds

Inventories are expected to decline in June after offtake rates at Chinese main ports rose sharply in the last two weeks of May because of an uptick in demand from downstream polyester buyers

Demand for MEG is also expected to remain strong in the first half of June boosted by high polyester production rates of above 85 and modestly low inventory levels

A slowdown in demand may take place in the second half of June as the traditional manufacturing peak period nears its end in July

Meanwhile supply conditions could tighten because of the plant turnarounds in northeast Asia

However supply from the Middle East will likely resume to normal levels given that there were no further delay in shipments in May

MEG prices in Asia have registered year-on-year growth rates in the months to June this year

MEG prices have mostly hovered above $900tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China Main Port (CMP) while prices were mostly below $900tonne CFR CMP in 2017

Prices have been volatile in 2018 with major price swings seen on a near monthly basis since February

MEG prices in first quarter of 2018 continued the uptrend seen in the fourth quarter of 2017 rising to $1030tonne CFR CMP in early March from $922tonne CFR

CMP in late December as the higher-than-expected growth in downstream polyester fuelled bullish market sentiment

Polyester growth in 2017 was estimated at above 10 beating an originally bearish expectation of 2-3

A price downtrend was observed in March with the MEG weekly average price losing nearly 10 of its value to $929tonne CFR CMP by end-March

The price decline coincided with a sharp influx of imported cargoes which was likely a result of over-procurement in January

Back to Quick Navigation | 26Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

and February when prices were trending upwards

March 2018 import volumes rose to nearly 1m tonnes a record three-year high according to official China customs data

MEG prices rebounded in April rising by around 9 from end-March to $1014tonne CFR CMP by end-April ahead of the traditional peak period for the downstream polyester sector The average polyester production rate rose to above 85 during the period

MEG also achieved its to-date weekly peak of $1042tonne CFR CMP in the week ending 20 April

Supply tightness was also observed in the Chinese domestic market because of shipment delays from the Middle East and logistical issues at China main ports over the same period

The lack of availability of prompt cargoes also led to an atypical price spread between April and May delivery parcels

Normally the spread between arrived-at-port and far-term arrival cargoes is at $0-10tonne CFR CMP but this widened to $20-30tonne CFR CMP This drove concerns of sharp price adjustments in May once April deliveries were fulfilled

These concerns came true as MEG prices

began to slide in May MEG weekly prices stood at $928tonne CFR CMP in the last week of May falling from $1003tonne CFR CMP in early May

High inventory levels have also weighed on MEG prices Inventory levels were above 900000 tonnes from early May onward rising to 938000 tonnes by in late March Most market participants deemed inventory levels above 900000 tonnes to be high

The increase in inventory levels in May were largely attributed to the arrival of Middle East shipments which were previously due for arrival in April

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian MEG markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 27Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSETHYLENE

NE ASIA ETHYLENE H2 OUTLOOK HINGES ON NEW SUPPLY SM PLANTBy Yeow Pei Lin

Northeast (NE) Asiarsquos ethylene (C2) second-half 2018 outlook is uncertain as several crackers are scheduled for maintenance but such production losses could be offset by the start up of a new plant and cargoes from outside the region

More than 20 crackers in Asia are slated to undergo maintenance in 2018 with the estimated capacity losses totalling more than 185m tonnes Most of the turnarounds in the first half of the year were concentrated in Japan ndash a key exporter to China

However several more companies are to carry out turnarounds in June and the rest of the year

The impact on the regional balance will depend on the start-up progress of a new facility in South Korea and on whether the strong exports from southeast Asia and Europe in the first half of 2018 will continue

Shipments from Yeosu South Korea will start to slow down in August ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at complexes in that region

Exports will recover by December when Lotte Chemical brings on-stream an added capacity of 200000 tonnesyear at its Yeosu cracker

The facility will undergo an expansion during a turnaround from late September to October

Shipments from Ulsan another petrochemical cluster in South Korea will grow in the second half of 2018

Newcomer S-Oil is expected to begin commercial operations at its residue upgrading complex (RUC) in Onsan in the second half of June

The companyrsquos entire ethylene output of up

to around 200000 tonnesyear is intended for the merchant market as it does not have any downstream plants

Exports from southeast Asian producers will continue to be driven by the higher value from ethylene sales in the ethylene versus polyethylene (PE) trade-off

There will however be supply constraints

Four crackers in the region will undergo

maintenance and the affected producers include ExxonMobil and PTT Global Chemicals (PTTGC) that were regular exporters in the first half of 2018

Exports from Europe will likely be influenced by the performance of the PE sector

The outlook for the PE market in Europe is uncertain given the growing prospect of competitively-priced exports from the new US plants

Back to Quick Navigation | 28Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Ethylene costs in the US have been at low levels since early 2018 as production growth outpaces that for consumption

Since late 2017 about 3m tonnesyear of new ethylene capacity and about 35m tonnesyear of new PE capacity have started up in the US

The new crackers have been running well but several of the new PE plants struggled to reach full operating rates

Exports from Saudi Arabia are expected to be constrained by increased domestic consumption

Petro Rabigh announced in April that the last few plants in its Phase 2 project including a 75000 tonneyear ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) unit have started up

The companyrsquos ethylene exports could fall further in the second half of 2018 following the completion of its PE plant maintenance shutdowns earlier in the year

Chinarsquos import demand is poised for further growth when a new 260000 tonneyear styrene monomer (SM) plant starts up in the third quarter as planned

Anhui Haoyuan Chemical will be operating the unit in Fuyang Anhui on a standalone basis as its plans to build a methanol-to-olefin (MTO) plant have been put on hold amid high methanol prices

The plant will require around 78000 tonnes of ethylene annually to operate at maximum capacity

Based on the above factors it was not immediately clear if the ethylene prices in the second half will follow the volatile trend they displayed in the first five months of 2018

NE Asia spot ethylene prices were volatile from January to May as the impact of a heavy regional cracker turnaround schedule and strong Chinese demand was at times outweighed by strong exports from southeast Asia the Middle East and Europe

The market started the year at above a two and a half year high of $1415tonne CFR (cost amp freight) NE Asia in early January

Subsequent transacted prices fluctuated within a low $1200stonne to mid $1300stonne CFR NE Asia band in the five months ended 31 May

Prices in the first quarter were initially weighed down by ample supply from producers in the Middle East and Asia due to a series of PE plant shutdowns - both planned and unplanned

That was despite strong pre-Lunar New Year holiday restocking activities in China

Demand was bolstered by the start up of a 500000 tonneyear non-integrated SM plant and generally healthy downstream margins for producers outside the PE sector

End-users were also keen to build up their inventories because of the slow progress in their 2018 term contract discussions ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at facilities of key exporters in the region

In addition a major ethylene oxide (EO) maker was seeking more import cargoes following a disruption in supply from its upstream MTO unit The plant was shut twice between late November and the first half of February because of high feedstock methanol costs

The market recovered in early March in line with the start of the annual cracker turnaround season in northeast Asia where

scheduled capacity losses in 2018 will be overall higher than the previous year

That explained why the countryrsquos exports from January to April slumped by 14 year-on-year to 201274 tonnes

In late April northeast Asiarsquos spot prices fell again after a surprisingly large quantity of deep-sea spot cargoes were sold into Asia for delivery between the middle of May and the first half of June

There were at least 55000-60000 tonnes of cargoes from Europe in addition to 11000 tonnes of US supply for that delivery period Europe was in a long position because of derivative maintenance shutdowns and production problems

Continued strong exports from southeast Asia owing to downstream production issues and the weak performance of the linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) market contributed to the downbeat sentiment

The ample supply outweighed Chinarsquos robust import demand

Buying interest in China was strong for April and May arrival cargoes on the back

Back to Quick Navigation | 29Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

of healthy downstream margins for certain downstream markets such as SM EO and monoethylene glycol (MEG)

Ethylene buyers in China were also keen to book deep-sea cargoes to offset the expected regional production losses from cracker turnarounds

Prices rebounded quickly in mid-May

aided by a bullish SM market and reduced domestic supply

Some MTO operators lowered production in May as high feedstock methanol costs led to squeezed margins while a key producer in east China lowered its cracker run rates unexpectedly

Sharp increases in feedstock naphtha costs

which tracked gains on crude oil futures also helped set a floor to the earlier price declines

By early June spot ethylene prices had touched a 20-week high raising questions on whether the market will see similar price volatility in the second half of 2018

Producers will turn hawkish if the outlook for crude and naphtha markets remains upbeat

Back to Quick Navigation | 30Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSPROPYLENE

TIGHT NE ASIA PROPYLENE SUPPLY TO LIMIT H2 PRICE FLUCTUATIONSBy Joson Ng

Tight propylene (C3) supply in northeast Asia amid a heavy turnaround schedule in 2018 will continue supporting regional prices of the material into the second half

Sellers are likely to continue passing on firmer costs to buyers which are wary of October when heavy propylene production losses are expected

Buyersrsquo resistance in the key China market would keep any further increase in propylene prices in check with some downstream producers considering cutting output due to high feedstock costs

At the start of June propylene prices have weakened ending the strong general uptrend since end-March amid weakness in Chinarsquos domestic market as demand softened due to turnarounds at downstream polypropylene (PP) plants

However the downward pressure on regional prices may be temporary as overall supply in Asia is expected to be tight

In early June spot propylene prices in northeast Asia were about 9 higher from the start of 2018 according to ICIS data

The year started on a bullish note fuelled by a heavier cracker turnaround schedule compared with 2017 and higher premium levels concluded for contract cargoes

The uptrend was sustained into February due to restocking activities in various import markets in northeast Asia before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February

Before the holidays some South Korean producers were convinced the market will experience supply shortage as both GS Caltexrsquos fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity and Yeochun NCCrsquos (YNCC) cracker ndash which can produce 280000 tonnesyear of propylene ndash were due for maintenance in February through to April

But propylene prices surprisingly weakened from 9 February to end-March without demand support from Chinarsquos weak PP market which struggled through sluggish sales and high inventory after the countryrsquos week-long Lunar New Year holiday

A renewed wave of scheduled turnarounds at regional plants tightened supply and drove up propylene prices in April and May

In Taiwan Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) took its residue fluid catalytic

Back to Quick Navigation | 31Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

cracking (RFCC) unit with a 350000 tonneyear propylene capacity off stream from 1 March to mid-April while CPC Corp shut its 100000 tonneyear FCC unit on 10 April and restarted in early June

In South Korea GS Caltex also had a turnaround at its FCC unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity from 19 February to 5 April

SK Advanced shut its propane dehydrogenated (PDH) unit with 600000 tonneyear propylene capacity on 21 April to early May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian propylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 32Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

To talk to someone about price forecast reports call the numbers below or email us at salesukiciscomAsia-Pacific Europe Africa and Middle East The AmericasTel +65 6789 8828 Tel +44 20 8652 3335 Tel +1 713 525 2600 or Toll free +1 888 525 3255 (US and Canada only)

ICIS price forecast reportsSupply demand and price trends at a glance

ICIS price forecast reports provide a clear view of prices and supply and demand trends for the next 12 months Packed with vital information the report includes everything you need to assess where the market is heading and the impact or opportunity that presents for your business

To find out more or take a trial visit wwwiciscompriceforecast

Price Forecast Window

ICIS price forecasts are now available on the Dashboard channel using the Price Forecast Window which will enable users to

n Chart the price forecast against the last (rolling) twelve months of related price history

n Plot the last 12 months to view forecast progression and ICIS forecast accuracy

n Convert data into different currencies and units and download this data into Excel in order to easily enter into your own calculations

How price forecast reports can help youn Understand the marketUse ICIS price forecast reports to understand where the market is heading and identify the risks and the opportunities for your business What are the major demand developments for your product n Safeguard commercial decisionsUse market information to make better-informed business decisions relating to supply and demand Learn about changes in market capacities What factors will affect supply for you n Budgeting and planningWhether you are planning how much you will be spending in the short-to medium or even long term use the price forecast reports to help assess future prices for your product What will the price of your product be in six monthsrsquo time

Price forecast reports currently

available

Available as price forecast windows only

Polypropylene

Polyethylene

Benzene

StyrenePolystyrene

Methanol

Ethylene

Propylene

Styrene

Asia Europe US Global

3

3

3

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3

3

3

3

3

3

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3

3

3

3

OLEFINSBUTADIENE

ASIA BD TO FLUCTUATE IN H2 AS SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE SHIFTSBy Helen Yan

Asiarsquos butadiene (BD) spot prices for July shipments are likely to face downward pressure but any price downtrend is likely to reverse when cracker turnarounds start to kick in from September onwards

BD prices are expected to be weighed down before seeing support again in the third quarter as the supply and demand balance shifts during this period

The fourth quarter will likely see support for BD prices although the increases may be tempered by resistance from the downstream synthetic rubber (SR) makers to any significant price hikes

The busy cracker turnaround season in September-November will likely see supply tightening at the same time that demand is expected to pick up during this period

Several crackers and BD units including South Korearsquos Lotte Chemical LG Chem and Chinarsquos Shanghai Secco and Maoming Petrochemical are scheduled to shut during

the September to November time frame

In the near term BD spot prices are likely to continue to trend lower as demand wanes while supply at the same time is expected to lengthen due to an influx of deep-sea cargoes and regional cracker restarts

More than 15000 tonnes of deep-sea cargoes from EU are expected to arrive in Asia in June and July at the same time that crackers in Asia including Indiarsquos Haldia Petrochemical and Indonesiarsquos Chandra Asri resume their production following their maintenance shutdowns

On 8 June spot prices fell to $1725tonne CFR (cost amp freight) northeast (NE) Asia the second consecutive week of decline after spiralling upwards in the two months since early April

BD spot prices had increased by more than 40 since early April peaking at $1800tonne CFR NE Asia on 25 May

Strong demand from derivative acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) makers which were running their plants at optimal rates had bolstered the BD price upsurge during this period

However derivative styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) and polybutadiene rubber (PBR) producers the key consumers of BD cut their production output given the continued erosion in margins

Several major SBR and PBR producers said their margins had fallen into negative territory and retreated from the BD spot market in June

Chinese spot appetite in particular tapered off as domestic BD prices were lower compared with the US dollar-denominated import prices

In China Hangzhou Zhechen Jilin Petrochemical Zhejiang Transfar and Shen Hua Chemical were some of the SBR and PBR plants that are shut for maintenance in June and July

Several SBR and PBR plants in Taiwan and South Korea were also running at lower rates following the 40 BD price spike in the two months from early April to end-May

In South Korea major SR producer Korea Kumho Petrochemical PC was running its SBR and PBR plants at reduced rates

Back to Quick Navigation | 33Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian butadiene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 34Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Similarly Taiwanrsquos TSRC also cut the production output of its SBR and PBR plants

The outlook for the fourth quarter is expected to see a different turn of events with SBR and PBR plants resuming their production and ramping up their operating rates while supply during the last quarter is expected to tighten from the heavy cracker turnaround season

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYETHYLENE (PE)

SOUTHEAST ASIA PE MARKET FACES LONGER H2 SUPPLY WEAK DEMANDBy Felita Widjaja

Southeast Asiarsquos polyethylene (PE) market may be facing longer supply in the second half hinging on how the US-China trade spat plays out amid the regionrsquos weakening demand for imports

Global PE trade flows will be affected should China the biggest importer of spot PE cargoes in the world decide to impose retaliatory 25 tariff on US cargoes

Southeast Asia as an alternative buying region might be hard pressed to absorb additional supply from the US where massive PE capacities recently started up which were meant to cater to huge Chinese demand

Around 5m tonnes of additional US PE capacities are expected from several major projects including those in the pipeline to start up within the second half of 2018

China primarily imports PE cargoes from Asia and the Middle East while the US is its sixth leading PE supplier in 2017

ldquoEventually more substantial and regular volume of US [PE] cargoes are expected to be traded in Asia in the second half of the year as we have yet to see them in the first half of this yearrdquo said a regional trader

Any changes in trade flows would pose challenges to US suppliers in the short term as they would need to revamp their logistics and distribution channels to redirect cargoes to other markets

Suppliers from the Middle East meanwhile might take the opportunity to supply more cargoes to China and would mean fewer volumes available to the southeast Asian market

The Middle East is southeast Asiarsquos major PE supplier

Demand for PE imports in southeast Asia has been weak amid lower prices in

Back to Quick Navigation | 35Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

the domestic markets as in the case of Thailand

ldquoThai traders are not keen to import as local prices are more competitive so they do not have the margin to sell the imported cargoes in local market Only some converters who need specific cargoes continue to importrdquo said a local Thai trader

Malaysia and Indonesia with predominantly Muslim populations have seen market activity slow down since mid-May when the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan started Ramadan ends with the Eid ul-Fitr holiday on 15 June

The Indonesian government has declared a longer Eid-ul Fitr holiday this year from 11-20 June

Markets in Singapore and the Philippines will be closed for the mid-June holiday as well

With supply expected to become long some market players expect regional PE prices in July and August to ease from

June with restocking activities expected to kick in towards the end of the third quarter

In the first half of 2018 southeast Asiarsquos average prices for commodity PE were largely stable to firm owing to suppliersrsquo relatively comfortable-to-tight supply for most of the period

At the start of June high density polyethylene (HDPE) film grade prices averaged $1395tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia while linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) film were at $1210tonne CFR SE Asia and $1265tonne CFR SE Asia respectively according to ICIS data

Prices had spiked in the first quarter as suppliers were holding comfortable-to-tight inventory as several regional producers have scheduled turnarounds at their plants in March Production issues and shutdowns in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia also limited availability of imports to southeast Asia during this period

Supply for HDPE film was particularly tight as some producers from the Middle East as well as Asia switched their focus into making HDPE pipe grade amid robust demand and better netbacks

The price uptrend across most PE grades could not be sustained in the second quarter although prices remained relatively stable-to-firm

The depreciation of local currencies in southeast Asia against the US dollar in most of the second quarter was also curbing overall demand for imports A weaker currency makes US dollar-denominated imports expensive

ldquoIndonesian buyers have not been buying much cargoes as the market slowed down during Ramadan and also because of weak rupiah which led the central bank to increase interest rate to limit the depreciationrdquo said a regional producer

CHINA PE IMPORTS TO STAY STRONG AMID DOMESTIC PLANT TURNAROUNDS By Angie Li

Chinarsquos polyethylene (PE) imports are expected to remain strong for the rest of the year after posting record volumes in January to April 2018 amid scheduled turnarounds at domestic facilities

Buyers in China have been accumulating imported PE cargoes as these were priced lower compared futures prices since the start of the year

More cargoes will be available to China as new capacities in the US are expected to boost production

For the month of May the countryrsquos PE imports are projected to reach 12m tonnes higher than the monthly average in the first four months of 2018

In January to April 2018 its PE imports volumes totaled 447m tonnes up by 12 from the previous corresponding period according to industry sources

The import volumes were making up for the production losses in the domestic market due to scheduled turnarounds

On 1 June low density PE (LDPE) imports were assessed at $1155-1180tonne linear low density PE (LLDPE) stood at $1150-1170tonne while high density PE (HDPE) film products were at $1340-1400tonne according to ICIS data

The prices have increased 15-62 from end-March but the gains came in lower than market playersrsquo expectations considering the heavy production loss due to turnarounds from April

Back to Quick Navigation | 36Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

An estimated 500000 tonnes are expected to be shaved in the second quarter due to scheduled maintenance at domestic facilities according ICIS data

ldquoWe thought the hefty plant turnarounds in the second quarter should lead to a surge in PE prices but the LDPE and LLDPE prices were less than satisfactory although HDPE prices [were] highrdquo said an east China-based trader referring to both the import and domestic PE prices

Strong imports amid hedging activities bloated the total supply in China in January to April to 998m tonnes up by 8 from the previous corresponding period with supply of LDPE and LLDPE up by 14 and 8 respectively market sources said

Imports of HDPE inched up by 2 over the same period given the gradersquos comparatively higher prices compared with LLDPE and LDPE

Increased availability due to recent capacity expansions and start-ups in Asia the Middle East also fuels Chinarsquos appetite for import cargoes

In the first quarter of 2018 additional cargoes from Saudi Arabia were mostly from Sadara Chemical which started up its 750000 tonneyear swing plant and 350000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Al Jubail during late 2016 and early 2017 respectively

Cargoes of Iran origin augmented the total volume from the UAE as market players try to go around the financial sanctions on Tehran Kordestan Petrochemicalrsquos 300000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Iran came on stream in March 2017

UAErsquos Borouge has also ramped up pipe and HDPE film exports to China during the period according to a supplier in the Middle East

Meanwhile PE imports from Singapore surged 38 year on year while those from India more than doubled to 127000 tonnes according to China Customs data

The ban on waste plastics implemented in China in the year also bolstered imports of virgin PE Some waste plastics processed overseas and then re-entered the market as virgin products but these volumes were limited

Last year China has imported 194m tonnes of PE waste plastics while

volumes in 2018 will be negligible with the implemention of the ban

Chinarsquos PE production this year is expected to increase by around 7 to about 17m tonnes in 2018 with imports projected to grow by 102 to around 13m tonnes according to a source from state-owned petrochemical giant PetroChina

Domestic demand for PE on the other hand is forecast to grow by 8 this year mainly from the packaging and pipe markets

Chinarsquos ongoing campaign to switch to using gas for power generation instead of coal is expected to continue boosting demand for PE gas pipes this year

The packaging industry will also drive up PE consumption underpinned by growth in electronic commerce Chinarsquos express delivery volumes reached 137bn packages during January-April 2018 based on data from the recent China Express Industry Development Conference in May

Back to Quick Navigation | 37Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 38Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

By Jonathan Lopez

ICIS NewsThe leading news service for real-time ground breaking news and analysis on the global petrochemicals markets

The ICIS News services give you unrivalled access to the most in-depth stories impacting the petrochemicals markets influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions

Our team of global editors are reporting around the clock to bring you the latest news and analysis so that you get the full picture of market and pricing developments first providing you with invaluable foresight to take advantage of every opportunity and to stay ahead of your competitors

With ICIS News you will be the first to read

Breaking news on the chemical markets that will impact your business

News on market moves deals and announcements that will affect your organisation

Force majeures closures and developments that influence your commodity prices

Expert analysis on industry trends and hot topics ndash know whatrsquos happening and why

Searchable archive with over 14 million articles from the past 10 years

Chemical Business News Base (CBNB) is a premium resource available on ICIS News It provides you with an extensive external source of upstream and downstream petrochemical news in summarised snapshots so you can quickly and easily get the latest updates on whatrsquos important to you

CBNB offers readers

Fast and consistent coverage on news facts figures from the upstream and downstream petrochemicals industry

Access to over 700 news sources including technical and trade journals company literature market research reports stockbroker reports books and directories

User-friendly search functionality to find articles most relevant to you from around the globe

Quick and easy-to-read summarised snapshots of articles with option to access full articles from the original source

ICIS Chemical Business digital magazine (ICB) Our global team of experts digests and summarises the key issues and their potential impact on the chemical markets offering a comprehensive overview of the key developments that matter most-along with informed opinion and in-depth analysis

ICB features include

In-depth insight into chemical price changes and their impact on the markets

Understand the detail behind the headline news stories

Find out about supply amp demand trends and the factors impacting them

Get the complete picture of the chemical markets ndash all in one e-magazine

Easy access via e-magazine and premium magazine website

Find out more wwwiciscomnews

ICIS News offers access to additional sources including the ICIS Chemical Business Magazine and Chemical Business News Base (CBNB)

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYPROPYLENE (PP)

SE ASIA PP PRICES MAY COME UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 AS SUPPLY LENGTHENSBy Leanne Tan

Southeast Asiarsquos polypropylene (PP) market may come under pressure in the second half of the year on account of lengthening regional supply and weak downstream demand

Spot prices have been on the rise for most of May buoyed by bullish sentiment in the Chinese market and firm upstream feedstock costs

Margins for PP makers have been lower on average compared with levels in the previous year

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refinery amp Petrochemicals is scheduled to start up its 400000 tonneyear PP production unit in the third quarter The project was initially scheduled to start up in the first quarter of 2018

While domestic demand will continue to outstrip local production the countryrsquos reliance on imports may be diminished when the new plant starts up

Converters in the country have been opting to keep inventories lean in the short term amid expectations that prices may eventually weaken when more domestic supply becomes available

ldquoBuyers donrsquot want to buy too much import cargoes now not just because prices are high but also because there will be more locally-produced materials very soonrdquo a Vietnamese trader said

In Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan is expected to start commercial production at its expanded PP facility in Pasir Gudang in June or July The plantrsquos capacity will be raised by 200000 tonnesyear from 400000 tonnesyear

Import availabilities from South Korea are expected to lengthen in the medium-to-long term with S-Oil expected to complete an olefin downstream complex (ODC) at its Onsan refinery in Ulsan which will include a

405000 tonneyear PP capacity

On the demand front weakness is likely to persist in the second half with converters and end-users likely to continue buying spot cargoes on a hand-to-mouth basis

Indonesiarsquos demand in particular has been below expectations since the start of 2018 and this is likely to continue in the second half of the year according to market players

Back to Quick Navigation | 39Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Some players said import demand for dutiable cargoes may increase in the second half of the year as this is typically when the government issues duty exemption facilities

The duty exemption facilities are issued on a yearly basis which enable converters to import some PP volumes without extra cost

In Malaysia the removal of the 6 goods and services tax (GST) so far has had no immediate impact on the PP market although there are some expectations the move could potentially boost demand in the consumer market further down the road

In Vietnam demand for PP flat yarn has entered a seasonal lull from May to early July and will not pick up until August when the summer harvest begins

PP is widely used in the manufacture of woven sacks (for rice sacks) flexible packaging carpets household appliances and automotive parts

Spot PP prices in southeast Asia have been an uptrend for most of the first half

The PP market begun the year on a bullish note with spot prices surging by almost 10 over the course of two months all-origins PP flat yarn prices peaked at $1295tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia on 2 March

Healthy demand in China helped to provide support to spot prices in southeast Asia in the first quarter with a tight global spot supply leading to further price escalations

Some suppliers pulled back from the southeast Asian spot market to capitalise on better netbacks in other countries including Japan and Pakistan leading to further curtailed spot availability in southeast Asia

The market rally started to lose steam in early March amid subdued demand and a build-up of domestic inventories in China after the Lunar New Year holidays

The bearish sentiment soon spilled over into southeast Asia with Chinese suppliers pushing some volumes into southeast Asia amid an open arbitrage window

Vietnam remains the market of choice for Chinese exporters and PP import prices in the country plummeted as the result of the lengthened spot availability

However the bearish run was short-lived and prices soon bottomed out in early April

Bullish momentum in the upstream crude and naphtha markets propelled spot prices of polymers higher

Despite lacklustre downstream demand price hikes in April and May were commonplace as producers sought higher asking prices in view of narrower margins

TIGHT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT CHINA PP MARKET DESPITE WEAK DEMANDBy Dora Xue

Tight supply would buoy up Chinarsquos polypropylene (PP) prices in the near term despite weak downstream demand

The market is expecting heavy production losses following recent unexpected outages at five domestic facilities from May and scheduled turnarounds at other plants

In the week ended on 1 June domestic prices for PP flat yarn in east China were assessed at Chinese yuan (CNY) 9075tonne after a steady increase from early April according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos import prices for the same material stood at $1245tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China largely tracking movement in the domestic market over the past two months according to ICIS data

The strong PP prices have also started to deter buyers from purchasing more spot cargoes

ldquoPP prices are too high We donrsquot want to store too much in our warehouserdquo a buyer said

Downstream demand typically goes on a lull in June and July but any downward pressure on prices will be negated by a further tightening of supply as major plants will be taken off line for maintenance

ldquoWhen the maintenance season finishes in late June [PP] prices may start to go downrdquo a trader said

Demand is considered weakest at Qingdao in the eastern Shandong province due to government-mandated production cuts and logistics restrictions ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (SCO Summit) on 9-10 June

As of 1 June the combined polyolefin inventories of Chinese petrochemical majors Sinopec and PetroChina have declined back to normal levels of 700000 tonnes from a high of 1m tonnes in early March market sources said

Import supply to China may not improve in the short term as suppliers still deem other

Back to Quick Navigation | 40Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

Back to Quick Navigation | 43Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 19: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

Back to Quick Navigation | 17Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 18Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

However supply has been steadily rising for cargoes loading in May and June ndash with the market seeing an additional of close to 30000 tonnes of product from South Korea alone ndash as some downstream plants had ongoing shutdown plans all the way till early July (see right)

All of these cargoes as expected are heading to China because of the opened arbitrage window for exports during the same time period

The increment in excess spot supply from South Korea ndash going forward ndash will be driven by downstream spreads for TDP operators since the benzene-toluene spreads have been narrowing consistently from March when the spreads hit a peak

The healthy spreads between toluene and xylenes (para and isomer) have been the only saving grace for the TDP market

ldquoBenzene demand-supply fundamentals are likely to continue remaining weak with increments in supply still expected from Middle East and Vietnam from June so that is going to still put pressure on TDP operators whether to run their unit with more toluene or less toluene [since they can adjust the amount of feedstock]rdquo one northeast Asian end-user said

ldquoBenzene demand-supply fundamentals are likely to continue remaining weak with increments in supply still expected from Middle East and Vietnam from June so that is going to still put pressure on TDP operators whether to run their unit with more toluene or less toluene [since they can adjust the amount of feedstock]rdquo one northeast Asian end-user said

There is also hope that supply will be curbed again in the autumn season ndash when several plants start their planned maintenances ndash to provide a temporary relief to the readily sufficient spot availability

Ultimately if Chinarsquos importing activity continues to be robust there will be no issues with them soaking up the excess supplies at any point of time

ldquoThe key issue is how much these buyers can procure and how long their buying activities can last but so far it has been very sporadic and capped to short time frames because of them being risk averserdquo one southeast Asian trader said

Back to Quick Navigation | 19Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian toluene markets

BASE OILSBASE OILS

ASIA MIDEAST BASE OILS FIRM IN H1 BUT SOME PULLBACK LIKELY IN H2By Jasmine Khoo amp Izham Ahmad

Asia base oils Group I SN150 and Group II 150N prices are expected to remain firm on persistently low supply whereas the heavy grades - Group I SN500 and Group II 500600N - could come under pressure on ample availability

Into the second half of the year base oils supply from Iran are expected to be stable with no known maintenance plans due over the following few months from June and that could add further pressure on prices amid the weak demand outlook

Only one Iranian refiner is due for a maintenance shutdown in the second half of the year possibly sometime in September according to market sources

In Group II like in Asia short supply of 150N and 500600N is expected to support prices in coming months but the Group II segment in the Middle East is a much smaller market for producers

Major Group II and III producers in Saudi Arabia Qatar Bahrain and UAE also continue to focus on their traditional markets outside of the Middle East due to stronger demand and higher margins

Brightstock remained largely stable for June in terms of pricing following deals done at parity with Mayrsquos levels but market players maintained a cautious stance towards brightstock pricing which would typically see downward pressure towards the end of the year

The winter season in parts of Asia would typically herald a period of slow cargo uptake for brightstock as transportation logistics get more challenging

As for Group III base oils northeast Asian-origin lots are expected to see support in spot prices from June as seen from healthy uptake among buyers amid short supply from regional suppliers

Similarly in the Middle East market Group I prices started the year on a firm note

Around mid-February SN500 prices traded up to $80750tonne FOB (free on board) Iran their highest levels since ICIS began tracking the data in November 2015

SN150 also traded their record highs about the same time hitting $72750tonne FOB Iran

These record highs were held until early May despite buyers at the time showing increasing resistance to the higher levels and the uncertainty that took hold of the market ahead of a deadline for the US to decide on whether it would remain in the Iran nuclear deal

On 8 May US president Donald Trump announced that the US will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal and re-impose sanctions on Tehran consequently driving up crude prices to new highs since late 2014

Iranrsquos base oils prices were largely stable in that week but market outlook has been clouded with uncertainties following the USrsquo decision to re-impose sanctions on the country

Group I SN500 prices were stable through the early half of May at $780-805tonne FOB Iran while Group I SN150 were holding at $710-745tonne FOB Iran since early-February according to ICIS data

Prices began to decline around mid-May when it became more apparent that the increased sanctions would cause at least some disruptions to business dealings with Iranian entities

Market players said they encountered difficulties in financial transactions with Iran and many financial institutions were reluctant to take on any dealings involving Iran-based businesses for fear of conflicting with the US sanctions

On the supply side market players in the UAE said there were sufficient cargoes built up over recent months and as such

there was less demand for further spot deals in Group I particularly with the threat of renewed sanctions

Mid-May also marked the start of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan which is a typically slow season for the Middle East

Certain manufacturing activities are reduced as factories observed shorter operating hours and as many workers took some vacation time as well

The Eid ul-Fitr long holidays followed the end of Ramadan in mid-June

Asiarsquos base oils market trends for certain widely-traded Group I grades snapped out of persistent uptrend in late April against a backdrop of increasingly squeezed buyersrsquo margins and waning demand

Steady gains in FOB Asia spot prices were recorded since September 2017 on the back of regional shortages as demand surpassed output

This was partly fuelled by natural disasters in the US when Hurricane Harvey disrupted between 20 and 25 of the countryrsquos refining capacity in August

The disruption to base oils production at some units led to increased appetite for deep-sea shipments from Asia to the US

In the current market SN500 prices registered the greatest drops among the ICIS assessed grades shedding slightly more than 12 of its spot pricing between 13 April and 25 May ICIS data showed

Market participants attributed the price dip to lackluster demand brought about by a supply overhang of domestically-produced SN400 in the local Chinese market

Competitive pricing of SN400 amid ample availability curtailed import appetite among China-based buyers for SN500 of Asian origin especially since some buyers were still holding on to sufficient stocks for the near term

Back to Quick Navigation | 20Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Brightstock prices also softened reflecting increasingly squeezed buyersrsquo margins following steep gains seen from 22 September 2017 to 23 March 2018 in FOB Asia export prices

Some buyers were also sitting on sufficient inventories from active procurement earlier in the year leading to waned demand

This led refiners and traders to cut offers to encourage cargo uptake for May shipment cargoes

Group II 150N and 500600N prices largely held up on the back of potential supply woes in the summer season amid scheduled shutdowns at major Asian refineries

Taiwanrsquos Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) is expected to conduct planned maintenance in July market sources said

This led market players to hold on to expectations of buoyed spot prices for Group II base oils in the near term though significant increase is not expected for certain grades such as 500600N amid ample spot availability in the region

Group III 4 and 6cst base oils largely continued their steady price uptrend reflecting short supply among key South Korean Group III suppliers

8cst base oils of northeast Asian origin amid comparatively greater availability than its lighter counterparts saw less gains in prices since the beginning of 2018

South Korean-origin Group III base oils prices were mostly buoyant despite an influx of Middle East-origin Group III base oils into the northeast Asian market since November 2017 as South Korean-origin Group III users adhered largely to using the same material due to formulation restrictions and related OEM approvals

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian base oils markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 21Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPURIFIED TEREPHTHALIC ACID (PTA)

ASIA PTA SUPPLY TO LENGTHEN IN H2 ON INDIA CHINA PLANT START-UPSBy Samuel Wong

Supply of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in Asia is expected to lengthen in the second half of 2018 as new capacities will start up in the major markets of India and China amid a slowdown in demand

Major plants would have resumed production after unplanned outages to ease the current global supply tightness that has been driving up Asian prices while demand typically weakens in the third quarter

Asian PTA prices may start to come under pressure as fresh supply will hit the markets when new major regional plants start production in the third quarter

ldquoMarket sentiment is currently pessimistic about the outlook however this can quickly change if we see a sudden uptick in downstream demandrdquo a China-based producer said

In India JBF Grouprsquos 125m tonneyear PTA unit in Mangalore is expected to start up in the third quarter although the schedule is still fluid according to several market participants

In China Fuhaichuang Petrochemical formerly known as Dragon Aromatics (Zhangzhou) is planning to resume operations at its complex in the third quarter of 2018 after a prolonged shutdown

Its petrochemical complex in Zhangzhou has a 45m tonneyear PTA plant comprisings three 15m tonneyear lines two of which have been in operation since end-2017 The company is likely to restart the third line once smooth operations at its upstream paraxylene (PX) unit at the site is achieved market players said

In Europe Indorama Ventures Portugal plans to start up in July an idled 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Sines Thailand-based Indorama Ventures Ltd acquired the

plant from Portuguese Artlant PTA in late 2017

All these factors should see the narrowing of the price gap between Chinarsquos import and domestic markets as early as July after widening steadily from March to May

As of 12 June the gap stood at $96tonne down from the peak of about $111tonne on 30 May

Asiarsquos PTA prices are currently steady at firm levels Regional end-users preferred to procure cargoes on a need-to basis and were not keen on building inventories

Future movement will depend on market conditions in the downstream polyester industry

The wide price gap in Chinarsquos import and domestic markets has been deterring Chinese buyers from tapping the international spot market for supplies since March while demand was healthy especially in the downstream polyethylene terephthalate (PET) markets

Tight global supply in the first half saw Asian producers shipping out cargoes to the Middle East as well as Europe which was hit by unplanned outages in Belgium and Poland in April

Back to Quick Navigation | 22Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

In Europe BP Chemical on 15 April declared a force majeure at its Belgium PTA unit and a second force majeure on 17 May PKN Orlen on 23 April declared a force majeure at its Wloclawek PTA unit in Poland which was subsequently lifted on 2 May with spot cargoes from the plant limited until after a planned maintenance in SeptemberOctober 2018

Within Asia the southeastern region has had PTA plant outages and had to procure cargoes from the northeast in the preceding two months

Regional supply tightened further with the unexpected shutdown of Hanwha General Chemicalrsquos 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Daesan prompting a force majeure declaration on 21 May

In the first half of 2018 strong growth in demand in the downstream polyester markets in Asia particularly China supported the rally in PTA prices amid tight supply

Downstream polyester markets were enjoying positive margins keeping demand for feedstock PTA healthy

In the key China market operating rates at polyester units were higher compared with the previous year

The countryrsquos PTA production losses in January-June 2018 on the other hand were estimated at around 134m tonnes due to planned and unplanned outages

Asiarsquos PTA producers were largely enjoying healthy margins on the back of steady demand growth in the downstream polyester markets Firmer upstream energy

and feedstock PX prices have also buoyed PTA prices

In January to May 2018 Brent crude traded at $6692-7616bbl up by about 25 year

on year while PX prices were at $938-994tonne representing a 15 increase over the same period

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian purified terephthalic acid (PTA)) markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 23Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPOLYETHYLENE TEREPHTHALATE (PET)

ASIA PET TO REMAIN FIRM IN Q3 AS TIGHT SUPPLY SUPPORT PRICESBy Hazel Goh

Asian polyethylene terephthalate (PET) market is likely to remain firm in the third quarter on the back of tight supply a trend that has supported prices so far in 2018

Recently PET tight supply is a result of production cuts in Asia and Europe that have not had a clear estimated date of resuming normal operations

China Resources Packaging had cut production at its PET lines in Changzhou by 50 following notice from the government to reduce pollution in end-May It is not known for how long the production cuts will remain in place

In Europe there had been feedstock purified terephthalic acid (PTA) supply tightness leading to recent PET production cuts and force majeure by Novapet and JBF respectively

Many buyers had been purchasing on a need-to basis expecting that firm prices are unsustainable and will come down Subsequently they did not stock up cargoes ahead of the peak summer demand season for countries in the northern hemisphere

The reality turned out different and they had to accept higher prices as production cuts kept the supply tight

PET used to track feedstock price movements closely as it had been an oversupplied market and producers typically operate on thin margins

The oversupply situation changed and tightness was first felt in the third quarter of 2017 when plant closures by JBF RAK in the UAE and Belgium and by Mossi amp Ghisolfi (MampG) in the US Mexico and Brazil following financial tightness in the two PET-producing companies

Hurricane Harvey that hit the US in the third quarter led to further production cuts in the US

Back to Quick Navigation | 24Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 1

From then on supply remained tight as the plant under JBF RAK in the UAE and the former MampG plant in the US that had been acquired by Far Eastern remained shut for extended period of time even into 2018

Market players previously had concerns about where China will export its material when final anti-dumping duties (ADD) - heard to be at the same level as thepreliminary duties of 398-530 - wereimposed on its cargoes into Japan inJanuary

Japan was the top exporting destination for Chinese cargoes before the ADD following which the exports dropped drastically

While other producers such as Taiwanese southeast Asian Indian and South Korean producers sold more volumes into Japan Chinese makers sold to other markets that were relinquished by the other producers

Table 1 shows a significant difference between 2016 and 2017 in Chinarsquos export volumes to key destinations from the January-to-March period

Ranked by volume starting with largestvolume as 1

There is an ongoing anti-dumping duty (ADD) investigation by the US on PET cargoes from Brazil Pakistan Indonesia Taiwan and South Korea

The Commerce Department issued the preliminary dumping rates for Indonesia at 1316 South Korea at 881-10141 and Taiwan at 902-1189 in May Final determinations will be issued by 8 November

Even so some producers from the countries under investigation continued to receive buying enquiries from the US amid the current tight supply situation

There will be some upcoming new capacities expected in Q3 as shown in table 2 that may bring about a more balanced supply to meet the demand

The US plant acquired by Far Eastern is estimated to restart in June-July which should also ease the supply tightness

Even with the new capacities and plant restarts market participants think it is unlikely that PET market will return to the oversupply situation seen in the previous years

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PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian PET markets

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Table 2

Our English-language report coverage includes

Styrene MEG Propylene

BTX Methanol Base Oil

BPA PE MTBE

Phenol PP Mixed AromaticsAcetone Oxo-Alcohol

Trusted industryintelligence for Chinarsquoscommodity marketsDevelopments in Chinarsquos petrochemicals industrycontinue to affect the global marketplace It istherefore vital for domestic and internationalmarket players to keep track of changes withinthe country to know where opportunities lie

ICIS has long been recognised as a reliablesource of information our locally-based expertscompile reports and analyses in English tosupport industry participants dealing with Chinamarkets or seeking to trade or invest

Pricing informationOur pricing data provide key insights into pricetrends in China to support your short-termdecision-making negotiations and analyses

bull Import and export spot and contract pricesbull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity

and upstreamdownstream marketsbull Data on inventory levels and price marginsbull Plant and production news

Petrochemicals Analytics SolutionsProviding our customers with a 360-degree view of the Chinese market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker - real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for thenext 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics - key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock anddo wnstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlooks

Available for key chemical commodities

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Discover how we can meet your market information needs

enquiryiciscom

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESMONOETHYLENE GLYCOL (MEG)

ASIA MEG TO SEE DEMAND TAPERING LOWER SUPPLY IN EARLY H2By Eric Su

The Asian monoethylene glycol (MEG) market could see demand slowing down from the end of June while supply will be reduced from a number of plant turnarounds

Inventories are expected to decline in June after offtake rates at Chinese main ports rose sharply in the last two weeks of May because of an uptick in demand from downstream polyester buyers

Demand for MEG is also expected to remain strong in the first half of June boosted by high polyester production rates of above 85 and modestly low inventory levels

A slowdown in demand may take place in the second half of June as the traditional manufacturing peak period nears its end in July

Meanwhile supply conditions could tighten because of the plant turnarounds in northeast Asia

However supply from the Middle East will likely resume to normal levels given that there were no further delay in shipments in May

MEG prices in Asia have registered year-on-year growth rates in the months to June this year

MEG prices have mostly hovered above $900tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China Main Port (CMP) while prices were mostly below $900tonne CFR CMP in 2017

Prices have been volatile in 2018 with major price swings seen on a near monthly basis since February

MEG prices in first quarter of 2018 continued the uptrend seen in the fourth quarter of 2017 rising to $1030tonne CFR CMP in early March from $922tonne CFR

CMP in late December as the higher-than-expected growth in downstream polyester fuelled bullish market sentiment

Polyester growth in 2017 was estimated at above 10 beating an originally bearish expectation of 2-3

A price downtrend was observed in March with the MEG weekly average price losing nearly 10 of its value to $929tonne CFR CMP by end-March

The price decline coincided with a sharp influx of imported cargoes which was likely a result of over-procurement in January

Back to Quick Navigation | 26Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

and February when prices were trending upwards

March 2018 import volumes rose to nearly 1m tonnes a record three-year high according to official China customs data

MEG prices rebounded in April rising by around 9 from end-March to $1014tonne CFR CMP by end-April ahead of the traditional peak period for the downstream polyester sector The average polyester production rate rose to above 85 during the period

MEG also achieved its to-date weekly peak of $1042tonne CFR CMP in the week ending 20 April

Supply tightness was also observed in the Chinese domestic market because of shipment delays from the Middle East and logistical issues at China main ports over the same period

The lack of availability of prompt cargoes also led to an atypical price spread between April and May delivery parcels

Normally the spread between arrived-at-port and far-term arrival cargoes is at $0-10tonne CFR CMP but this widened to $20-30tonne CFR CMP This drove concerns of sharp price adjustments in May once April deliveries were fulfilled

These concerns came true as MEG prices

began to slide in May MEG weekly prices stood at $928tonne CFR CMP in the last week of May falling from $1003tonne CFR CMP in early May

High inventory levels have also weighed on MEG prices Inventory levels were above 900000 tonnes from early May onward rising to 938000 tonnes by in late March Most market participants deemed inventory levels above 900000 tonnes to be high

The increase in inventory levels in May were largely attributed to the arrival of Middle East shipments which were previously due for arrival in April

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian MEG markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 27Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSETHYLENE

NE ASIA ETHYLENE H2 OUTLOOK HINGES ON NEW SUPPLY SM PLANTBy Yeow Pei Lin

Northeast (NE) Asiarsquos ethylene (C2) second-half 2018 outlook is uncertain as several crackers are scheduled for maintenance but such production losses could be offset by the start up of a new plant and cargoes from outside the region

More than 20 crackers in Asia are slated to undergo maintenance in 2018 with the estimated capacity losses totalling more than 185m tonnes Most of the turnarounds in the first half of the year were concentrated in Japan ndash a key exporter to China

However several more companies are to carry out turnarounds in June and the rest of the year

The impact on the regional balance will depend on the start-up progress of a new facility in South Korea and on whether the strong exports from southeast Asia and Europe in the first half of 2018 will continue

Shipments from Yeosu South Korea will start to slow down in August ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at complexes in that region

Exports will recover by December when Lotte Chemical brings on-stream an added capacity of 200000 tonnesyear at its Yeosu cracker

The facility will undergo an expansion during a turnaround from late September to October

Shipments from Ulsan another petrochemical cluster in South Korea will grow in the second half of 2018

Newcomer S-Oil is expected to begin commercial operations at its residue upgrading complex (RUC) in Onsan in the second half of June

The companyrsquos entire ethylene output of up

to around 200000 tonnesyear is intended for the merchant market as it does not have any downstream plants

Exports from southeast Asian producers will continue to be driven by the higher value from ethylene sales in the ethylene versus polyethylene (PE) trade-off

There will however be supply constraints

Four crackers in the region will undergo

maintenance and the affected producers include ExxonMobil and PTT Global Chemicals (PTTGC) that were regular exporters in the first half of 2018

Exports from Europe will likely be influenced by the performance of the PE sector

The outlook for the PE market in Europe is uncertain given the growing prospect of competitively-priced exports from the new US plants

Back to Quick Navigation | 28Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Ethylene costs in the US have been at low levels since early 2018 as production growth outpaces that for consumption

Since late 2017 about 3m tonnesyear of new ethylene capacity and about 35m tonnesyear of new PE capacity have started up in the US

The new crackers have been running well but several of the new PE plants struggled to reach full operating rates

Exports from Saudi Arabia are expected to be constrained by increased domestic consumption

Petro Rabigh announced in April that the last few plants in its Phase 2 project including a 75000 tonneyear ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) unit have started up

The companyrsquos ethylene exports could fall further in the second half of 2018 following the completion of its PE plant maintenance shutdowns earlier in the year

Chinarsquos import demand is poised for further growth when a new 260000 tonneyear styrene monomer (SM) plant starts up in the third quarter as planned

Anhui Haoyuan Chemical will be operating the unit in Fuyang Anhui on a standalone basis as its plans to build a methanol-to-olefin (MTO) plant have been put on hold amid high methanol prices

The plant will require around 78000 tonnes of ethylene annually to operate at maximum capacity

Based on the above factors it was not immediately clear if the ethylene prices in the second half will follow the volatile trend they displayed in the first five months of 2018

NE Asia spot ethylene prices were volatile from January to May as the impact of a heavy regional cracker turnaround schedule and strong Chinese demand was at times outweighed by strong exports from southeast Asia the Middle East and Europe

The market started the year at above a two and a half year high of $1415tonne CFR (cost amp freight) NE Asia in early January

Subsequent transacted prices fluctuated within a low $1200stonne to mid $1300stonne CFR NE Asia band in the five months ended 31 May

Prices in the first quarter were initially weighed down by ample supply from producers in the Middle East and Asia due to a series of PE plant shutdowns - both planned and unplanned

That was despite strong pre-Lunar New Year holiday restocking activities in China

Demand was bolstered by the start up of a 500000 tonneyear non-integrated SM plant and generally healthy downstream margins for producers outside the PE sector

End-users were also keen to build up their inventories because of the slow progress in their 2018 term contract discussions ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at facilities of key exporters in the region

In addition a major ethylene oxide (EO) maker was seeking more import cargoes following a disruption in supply from its upstream MTO unit The plant was shut twice between late November and the first half of February because of high feedstock methanol costs

The market recovered in early March in line with the start of the annual cracker turnaround season in northeast Asia where

scheduled capacity losses in 2018 will be overall higher than the previous year

That explained why the countryrsquos exports from January to April slumped by 14 year-on-year to 201274 tonnes

In late April northeast Asiarsquos spot prices fell again after a surprisingly large quantity of deep-sea spot cargoes were sold into Asia for delivery between the middle of May and the first half of June

There were at least 55000-60000 tonnes of cargoes from Europe in addition to 11000 tonnes of US supply for that delivery period Europe was in a long position because of derivative maintenance shutdowns and production problems

Continued strong exports from southeast Asia owing to downstream production issues and the weak performance of the linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) market contributed to the downbeat sentiment

The ample supply outweighed Chinarsquos robust import demand

Buying interest in China was strong for April and May arrival cargoes on the back

Back to Quick Navigation | 29Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

of healthy downstream margins for certain downstream markets such as SM EO and monoethylene glycol (MEG)

Ethylene buyers in China were also keen to book deep-sea cargoes to offset the expected regional production losses from cracker turnarounds

Prices rebounded quickly in mid-May

aided by a bullish SM market and reduced domestic supply

Some MTO operators lowered production in May as high feedstock methanol costs led to squeezed margins while a key producer in east China lowered its cracker run rates unexpectedly

Sharp increases in feedstock naphtha costs

which tracked gains on crude oil futures also helped set a floor to the earlier price declines

By early June spot ethylene prices had touched a 20-week high raising questions on whether the market will see similar price volatility in the second half of 2018

Producers will turn hawkish if the outlook for crude and naphtha markets remains upbeat

Back to Quick Navigation | 30Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSPROPYLENE

TIGHT NE ASIA PROPYLENE SUPPLY TO LIMIT H2 PRICE FLUCTUATIONSBy Joson Ng

Tight propylene (C3) supply in northeast Asia amid a heavy turnaround schedule in 2018 will continue supporting regional prices of the material into the second half

Sellers are likely to continue passing on firmer costs to buyers which are wary of October when heavy propylene production losses are expected

Buyersrsquo resistance in the key China market would keep any further increase in propylene prices in check with some downstream producers considering cutting output due to high feedstock costs

At the start of June propylene prices have weakened ending the strong general uptrend since end-March amid weakness in Chinarsquos domestic market as demand softened due to turnarounds at downstream polypropylene (PP) plants

However the downward pressure on regional prices may be temporary as overall supply in Asia is expected to be tight

In early June spot propylene prices in northeast Asia were about 9 higher from the start of 2018 according to ICIS data

The year started on a bullish note fuelled by a heavier cracker turnaround schedule compared with 2017 and higher premium levels concluded for contract cargoes

The uptrend was sustained into February due to restocking activities in various import markets in northeast Asia before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February

Before the holidays some South Korean producers were convinced the market will experience supply shortage as both GS Caltexrsquos fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity and Yeochun NCCrsquos (YNCC) cracker ndash which can produce 280000 tonnesyear of propylene ndash were due for maintenance in February through to April

But propylene prices surprisingly weakened from 9 February to end-March without demand support from Chinarsquos weak PP market which struggled through sluggish sales and high inventory after the countryrsquos week-long Lunar New Year holiday

A renewed wave of scheduled turnarounds at regional plants tightened supply and drove up propylene prices in April and May

In Taiwan Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) took its residue fluid catalytic

Back to Quick Navigation | 31Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

cracking (RFCC) unit with a 350000 tonneyear propylene capacity off stream from 1 March to mid-April while CPC Corp shut its 100000 tonneyear FCC unit on 10 April and restarted in early June

In South Korea GS Caltex also had a turnaround at its FCC unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity from 19 February to 5 April

SK Advanced shut its propane dehydrogenated (PDH) unit with 600000 tonneyear propylene capacity on 21 April to early May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian propylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 32Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

To talk to someone about price forecast reports call the numbers below or email us at salesukiciscomAsia-Pacific Europe Africa and Middle East The AmericasTel +65 6789 8828 Tel +44 20 8652 3335 Tel +1 713 525 2600 or Toll free +1 888 525 3255 (US and Canada only)

ICIS price forecast reportsSupply demand and price trends at a glance

ICIS price forecast reports provide a clear view of prices and supply and demand trends for the next 12 months Packed with vital information the report includes everything you need to assess where the market is heading and the impact or opportunity that presents for your business

To find out more or take a trial visit wwwiciscompriceforecast

Price Forecast Window

ICIS price forecasts are now available on the Dashboard channel using the Price Forecast Window which will enable users to

n Chart the price forecast against the last (rolling) twelve months of related price history

n Plot the last 12 months to view forecast progression and ICIS forecast accuracy

n Convert data into different currencies and units and download this data into Excel in order to easily enter into your own calculations

How price forecast reports can help youn Understand the marketUse ICIS price forecast reports to understand where the market is heading and identify the risks and the opportunities for your business What are the major demand developments for your product n Safeguard commercial decisionsUse market information to make better-informed business decisions relating to supply and demand Learn about changes in market capacities What factors will affect supply for you n Budgeting and planningWhether you are planning how much you will be spending in the short-to medium or even long term use the price forecast reports to help assess future prices for your product What will the price of your product be in six monthsrsquo time

Price forecast reports currently

available

Available as price forecast windows only

Polypropylene

Polyethylene

Benzene

StyrenePolystyrene

Methanol

Ethylene

Propylene

Styrene

Asia Europe US Global

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

OLEFINSBUTADIENE

ASIA BD TO FLUCTUATE IN H2 AS SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE SHIFTSBy Helen Yan

Asiarsquos butadiene (BD) spot prices for July shipments are likely to face downward pressure but any price downtrend is likely to reverse when cracker turnarounds start to kick in from September onwards

BD prices are expected to be weighed down before seeing support again in the third quarter as the supply and demand balance shifts during this period

The fourth quarter will likely see support for BD prices although the increases may be tempered by resistance from the downstream synthetic rubber (SR) makers to any significant price hikes

The busy cracker turnaround season in September-November will likely see supply tightening at the same time that demand is expected to pick up during this period

Several crackers and BD units including South Korearsquos Lotte Chemical LG Chem and Chinarsquos Shanghai Secco and Maoming Petrochemical are scheduled to shut during

the September to November time frame

In the near term BD spot prices are likely to continue to trend lower as demand wanes while supply at the same time is expected to lengthen due to an influx of deep-sea cargoes and regional cracker restarts

More than 15000 tonnes of deep-sea cargoes from EU are expected to arrive in Asia in June and July at the same time that crackers in Asia including Indiarsquos Haldia Petrochemical and Indonesiarsquos Chandra Asri resume their production following their maintenance shutdowns

On 8 June spot prices fell to $1725tonne CFR (cost amp freight) northeast (NE) Asia the second consecutive week of decline after spiralling upwards in the two months since early April

BD spot prices had increased by more than 40 since early April peaking at $1800tonne CFR NE Asia on 25 May

Strong demand from derivative acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) makers which were running their plants at optimal rates had bolstered the BD price upsurge during this period

However derivative styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) and polybutadiene rubber (PBR) producers the key consumers of BD cut their production output given the continued erosion in margins

Several major SBR and PBR producers said their margins had fallen into negative territory and retreated from the BD spot market in June

Chinese spot appetite in particular tapered off as domestic BD prices were lower compared with the US dollar-denominated import prices

In China Hangzhou Zhechen Jilin Petrochemical Zhejiang Transfar and Shen Hua Chemical were some of the SBR and PBR plants that are shut for maintenance in June and July

Several SBR and PBR plants in Taiwan and South Korea were also running at lower rates following the 40 BD price spike in the two months from early April to end-May

In South Korea major SR producer Korea Kumho Petrochemical PC was running its SBR and PBR plants at reduced rates

Back to Quick Navigation | 33Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian butadiene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 34Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Similarly Taiwanrsquos TSRC also cut the production output of its SBR and PBR plants

The outlook for the fourth quarter is expected to see a different turn of events with SBR and PBR plants resuming their production and ramping up their operating rates while supply during the last quarter is expected to tighten from the heavy cracker turnaround season

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYETHYLENE (PE)

SOUTHEAST ASIA PE MARKET FACES LONGER H2 SUPPLY WEAK DEMANDBy Felita Widjaja

Southeast Asiarsquos polyethylene (PE) market may be facing longer supply in the second half hinging on how the US-China trade spat plays out amid the regionrsquos weakening demand for imports

Global PE trade flows will be affected should China the biggest importer of spot PE cargoes in the world decide to impose retaliatory 25 tariff on US cargoes

Southeast Asia as an alternative buying region might be hard pressed to absorb additional supply from the US where massive PE capacities recently started up which were meant to cater to huge Chinese demand

Around 5m tonnes of additional US PE capacities are expected from several major projects including those in the pipeline to start up within the second half of 2018

China primarily imports PE cargoes from Asia and the Middle East while the US is its sixth leading PE supplier in 2017

ldquoEventually more substantial and regular volume of US [PE] cargoes are expected to be traded in Asia in the second half of the year as we have yet to see them in the first half of this yearrdquo said a regional trader

Any changes in trade flows would pose challenges to US suppliers in the short term as they would need to revamp their logistics and distribution channels to redirect cargoes to other markets

Suppliers from the Middle East meanwhile might take the opportunity to supply more cargoes to China and would mean fewer volumes available to the southeast Asian market

The Middle East is southeast Asiarsquos major PE supplier

Demand for PE imports in southeast Asia has been weak amid lower prices in

Back to Quick Navigation | 35Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

the domestic markets as in the case of Thailand

ldquoThai traders are not keen to import as local prices are more competitive so they do not have the margin to sell the imported cargoes in local market Only some converters who need specific cargoes continue to importrdquo said a local Thai trader

Malaysia and Indonesia with predominantly Muslim populations have seen market activity slow down since mid-May when the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan started Ramadan ends with the Eid ul-Fitr holiday on 15 June

The Indonesian government has declared a longer Eid-ul Fitr holiday this year from 11-20 June

Markets in Singapore and the Philippines will be closed for the mid-June holiday as well

With supply expected to become long some market players expect regional PE prices in July and August to ease from

June with restocking activities expected to kick in towards the end of the third quarter

In the first half of 2018 southeast Asiarsquos average prices for commodity PE were largely stable to firm owing to suppliersrsquo relatively comfortable-to-tight supply for most of the period

At the start of June high density polyethylene (HDPE) film grade prices averaged $1395tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia while linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) film were at $1210tonne CFR SE Asia and $1265tonne CFR SE Asia respectively according to ICIS data

Prices had spiked in the first quarter as suppliers were holding comfortable-to-tight inventory as several regional producers have scheduled turnarounds at their plants in March Production issues and shutdowns in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia also limited availability of imports to southeast Asia during this period

Supply for HDPE film was particularly tight as some producers from the Middle East as well as Asia switched their focus into making HDPE pipe grade amid robust demand and better netbacks

The price uptrend across most PE grades could not be sustained in the second quarter although prices remained relatively stable-to-firm

The depreciation of local currencies in southeast Asia against the US dollar in most of the second quarter was also curbing overall demand for imports A weaker currency makes US dollar-denominated imports expensive

ldquoIndonesian buyers have not been buying much cargoes as the market slowed down during Ramadan and also because of weak rupiah which led the central bank to increase interest rate to limit the depreciationrdquo said a regional producer

CHINA PE IMPORTS TO STAY STRONG AMID DOMESTIC PLANT TURNAROUNDS By Angie Li

Chinarsquos polyethylene (PE) imports are expected to remain strong for the rest of the year after posting record volumes in January to April 2018 amid scheduled turnarounds at domestic facilities

Buyers in China have been accumulating imported PE cargoes as these were priced lower compared futures prices since the start of the year

More cargoes will be available to China as new capacities in the US are expected to boost production

For the month of May the countryrsquos PE imports are projected to reach 12m tonnes higher than the monthly average in the first four months of 2018

In January to April 2018 its PE imports volumes totaled 447m tonnes up by 12 from the previous corresponding period according to industry sources

The import volumes were making up for the production losses in the domestic market due to scheduled turnarounds

On 1 June low density PE (LDPE) imports were assessed at $1155-1180tonne linear low density PE (LLDPE) stood at $1150-1170tonne while high density PE (HDPE) film products were at $1340-1400tonne according to ICIS data

The prices have increased 15-62 from end-March but the gains came in lower than market playersrsquo expectations considering the heavy production loss due to turnarounds from April

Back to Quick Navigation | 36Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

An estimated 500000 tonnes are expected to be shaved in the second quarter due to scheduled maintenance at domestic facilities according ICIS data

ldquoWe thought the hefty plant turnarounds in the second quarter should lead to a surge in PE prices but the LDPE and LLDPE prices were less than satisfactory although HDPE prices [were] highrdquo said an east China-based trader referring to both the import and domestic PE prices

Strong imports amid hedging activities bloated the total supply in China in January to April to 998m tonnes up by 8 from the previous corresponding period with supply of LDPE and LLDPE up by 14 and 8 respectively market sources said

Imports of HDPE inched up by 2 over the same period given the gradersquos comparatively higher prices compared with LLDPE and LDPE

Increased availability due to recent capacity expansions and start-ups in Asia the Middle East also fuels Chinarsquos appetite for import cargoes

In the first quarter of 2018 additional cargoes from Saudi Arabia were mostly from Sadara Chemical which started up its 750000 tonneyear swing plant and 350000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Al Jubail during late 2016 and early 2017 respectively

Cargoes of Iran origin augmented the total volume from the UAE as market players try to go around the financial sanctions on Tehran Kordestan Petrochemicalrsquos 300000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Iran came on stream in March 2017

UAErsquos Borouge has also ramped up pipe and HDPE film exports to China during the period according to a supplier in the Middle East

Meanwhile PE imports from Singapore surged 38 year on year while those from India more than doubled to 127000 tonnes according to China Customs data

The ban on waste plastics implemented in China in the year also bolstered imports of virgin PE Some waste plastics processed overseas and then re-entered the market as virgin products but these volumes were limited

Last year China has imported 194m tonnes of PE waste plastics while

volumes in 2018 will be negligible with the implemention of the ban

Chinarsquos PE production this year is expected to increase by around 7 to about 17m tonnes in 2018 with imports projected to grow by 102 to around 13m tonnes according to a source from state-owned petrochemical giant PetroChina

Domestic demand for PE on the other hand is forecast to grow by 8 this year mainly from the packaging and pipe markets

Chinarsquos ongoing campaign to switch to using gas for power generation instead of coal is expected to continue boosting demand for PE gas pipes this year

The packaging industry will also drive up PE consumption underpinned by growth in electronic commerce Chinarsquos express delivery volumes reached 137bn packages during January-April 2018 based on data from the recent China Express Industry Development Conference in May

Back to Quick Navigation | 37Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 38Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

By Jonathan Lopez

ICIS NewsThe leading news service for real-time ground breaking news and analysis on the global petrochemicals markets

The ICIS News services give you unrivalled access to the most in-depth stories impacting the petrochemicals markets influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions

Our team of global editors are reporting around the clock to bring you the latest news and analysis so that you get the full picture of market and pricing developments first providing you with invaluable foresight to take advantage of every opportunity and to stay ahead of your competitors

With ICIS News you will be the first to read

Breaking news on the chemical markets that will impact your business

News on market moves deals and announcements that will affect your organisation

Force majeures closures and developments that influence your commodity prices

Expert analysis on industry trends and hot topics ndash know whatrsquos happening and why

Searchable archive with over 14 million articles from the past 10 years

Chemical Business News Base (CBNB) is a premium resource available on ICIS News It provides you with an extensive external source of upstream and downstream petrochemical news in summarised snapshots so you can quickly and easily get the latest updates on whatrsquos important to you

CBNB offers readers

Fast and consistent coverage on news facts figures from the upstream and downstream petrochemicals industry

Access to over 700 news sources including technical and trade journals company literature market research reports stockbroker reports books and directories

User-friendly search functionality to find articles most relevant to you from around the globe

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ICIS Chemical Business digital magazine (ICB) Our global team of experts digests and summarises the key issues and their potential impact on the chemical markets offering a comprehensive overview of the key developments that matter most-along with informed opinion and in-depth analysis

ICB features include

In-depth insight into chemical price changes and their impact on the markets

Understand the detail behind the headline news stories

Find out about supply amp demand trends and the factors impacting them

Get the complete picture of the chemical markets ndash all in one e-magazine

Easy access via e-magazine and premium magazine website

Find out more wwwiciscomnews

ICIS News offers access to additional sources including the ICIS Chemical Business Magazine and Chemical Business News Base (CBNB)

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYPROPYLENE (PP)

SE ASIA PP PRICES MAY COME UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 AS SUPPLY LENGTHENSBy Leanne Tan

Southeast Asiarsquos polypropylene (PP) market may come under pressure in the second half of the year on account of lengthening regional supply and weak downstream demand

Spot prices have been on the rise for most of May buoyed by bullish sentiment in the Chinese market and firm upstream feedstock costs

Margins for PP makers have been lower on average compared with levels in the previous year

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refinery amp Petrochemicals is scheduled to start up its 400000 tonneyear PP production unit in the third quarter The project was initially scheduled to start up in the first quarter of 2018

While domestic demand will continue to outstrip local production the countryrsquos reliance on imports may be diminished when the new plant starts up

Converters in the country have been opting to keep inventories lean in the short term amid expectations that prices may eventually weaken when more domestic supply becomes available

ldquoBuyers donrsquot want to buy too much import cargoes now not just because prices are high but also because there will be more locally-produced materials very soonrdquo a Vietnamese trader said

In Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan is expected to start commercial production at its expanded PP facility in Pasir Gudang in June or July The plantrsquos capacity will be raised by 200000 tonnesyear from 400000 tonnesyear

Import availabilities from South Korea are expected to lengthen in the medium-to-long term with S-Oil expected to complete an olefin downstream complex (ODC) at its Onsan refinery in Ulsan which will include a

405000 tonneyear PP capacity

On the demand front weakness is likely to persist in the second half with converters and end-users likely to continue buying spot cargoes on a hand-to-mouth basis

Indonesiarsquos demand in particular has been below expectations since the start of 2018 and this is likely to continue in the second half of the year according to market players

Back to Quick Navigation | 39Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Some players said import demand for dutiable cargoes may increase in the second half of the year as this is typically when the government issues duty exemption facilities

The duty exemption facilities are issued on a yearly basis which enable converters to import some PP volumes without extra cost

In Malaysia the removal of the 6 goods and services tax (GST) so far has had no immediate impact on the PP market although there are some expectations the move could potentially boost demand in the consumer market further down the road

In Vietnam demand for PP flat yarn has entered a seasonal lull from May to early July and will not pick up until August when the summer harvest begins

PP is widely used in the manufacture of woven sacks (for rice sacks) flexible packaging carpets household appliances and automotive parts

Spot PP prices in southeast Asia have been an uptrend for most of the first half

The PP market begun the year on a bullish note with spot prices surging by almost 10 over the course of two months all-origins PP flat yarn prices peaked at $1295tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia on 2 March

Healthy demand in China helped to provide support to spot prices in southeast Asia in the first quarter with a tight global spot supply leading to further price escalations

Some suppliers pulled back from the southeast Asian spot market to capitalise on better netbacks in other countries including Japan and Pakistan leading to further curtailed spot availability in southeast Asia

The market rally started to lose steam in early March amid subdued demand and a build-up of domestic inventories in China after the Lunar New Year holidays

The bearish sentiment soon spilled over into southeast Asia with Chinese suppliers pushing some volumes into southeast Asia amid an open arbitrage window

Vietnam remains the market of choice for Chinese exporters and PP import prices in the country plummeted as the result of the lengthened spot availability

However the bearish run was short-lived and prices soon bottomed out in early April

Bullish momentum in the upstream crude and naphtha markets propelled spot prices of polymers higher

Despite lacklustre downstream demand price hikes in April and May were commonplace as producers sought higher asking prices in view of narrower margins

TIGHT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT CHINA PP MARKET DESPITE WEAK DEMANDBy Dora Xue

Tight supply would buoy up Chinarsquos polypropylene (PP) prices in the near term despite weak downstream demand

The market is expecting heavy production losses following recent unexpected outages at five domestic facilities from May and scheduled turnarounds at other plants

In the week ended on 1 June domestic prices for PP flat yarn in east China were assessed at Chinese yuan (CNY) 9075tonne after a steady increase from early April according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos import prices for the same material stood at $1245tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China largely tracking movement in the domestic market over the past two months according to ICIS data

The strong PP prices have also started to deter buyers from purchasing more spot cargoes

ldquoPP prices are too high We donrsquot want to store too much in our warehouserdquo a buyer said

Downstream demand typically goes on a lull in June and July but any downward pressure on prices will be negated by a further tightening of supply as major plants will be taken off line for maintenance

ldquoWhen the maintenance season finishes in late June [PP] prices may start to go downrdquo a trader said

Demand is considered weakest at Qingdao in the eastern Shandong province due to government-mandated production cuts and logistics restrictions ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (SCO Summit) on 9-10 June

As of 1 June the combined polyolefin inventories of Chinese petrochemical majors Sinopec and PetroChina have declined back to normal levels of 700000 tonnes from a high of 1m tonnes in early March market sources said

Import supply to China may not improve in the short term as suppliers still deem other

Back to Quick Navigation | 40Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

Back to Quick Navigation | 43Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 20: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

Back to Quick Navigation | 18Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

However supply has been steadily rising for cargoes loading in May and June ndash with the market seeing an additional of close to 30000 tonnes of product from South Korea alone ndash as some downstream plants had ongoing shutdown plans all the way till early July (see right)

All of these cargoes as expected are heading to China because of the opened arbitrage window for exports during the same time period

The increment in excess spot supply from South Korea ndash going forward ndash will be driven by downstream spreads for TDP operators since the benzene-toluene spreads have been narrowing consistently from March when the spreads hit a peak

The healthy spreads between toluene and xylenes (para and isomer) have been the only saving grace for the TDP market

ldquoBenzene demand-supply fundamentals are likely to continue remaining weak with increments in supply still expected from Middle East and Vietnam from June so that is going to still put pressure on TDP operators whether to run their unit with more toluene or less toluene [since they can adjust the amount of feedstock]rdquo one northeast Asian end-user said

ldquoBenzene demand-supply fundamentals are likely to continue remaining weak with increments in supply still expected from Middle East and Vietnam from June so that is going to still put pressure on TDP operators whether to run their unit with more toluene or less toluene [since they can adjust the amount of feedstock]rdquo one northeast Asian end-user said

There is also hope that supply will be curbed again in the autumn season ndash when several plants start their planned maintenances ndash to provide a temporary relief to the readily sufficient spot availability

Ultimately if Chinarsquos importing activity continues to be robust there will be no issues with them soaking up the excess supplies at any point of time

ldquoThe key issue is how much these buyers can procure and how long their buying activities can last but so far it has been very sporadic and capped to short time frames because of them being risk averserdquo one southeast Asian trader said

Back to Quick Navigation | 19Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian toluene markets

BASE OILSBASE OILS

ASIA MIDEAST BASE OILS FIRM IN H1 BUT SOME PULLBACK LIKELY IN H2By Jasmine Khoo amp Izham Ahmad

Asia base oils Group I SN150 and Group II 150N prices are expected to remain firm on persistently low supply whereas the heavy grades - Group I SN500 and Group II 500600N - could come under pressure on ample availability

Into the second half of the year base oils supply from Iran are expected to be stable with no known maintenance plans due over the following few months from June and that could add further pressure on prices amid the weak demand outlook

Only one Iranian refiner is due for a maintenance shutdown in the second half of the year possibly sometime in September according to market sources

In Group II like in Asia short supply of 150N and 500600N is expected to support prices in coming months but the Group II segment in the Middle East is a much smaller market for producers

Major Group II and III producers in Saudi Arabia Qatar Bahrain and UAE also continue to focus on their traditional markets outside of the Middle East due to stronger demand and higher margins

Brightstock remained largely stable for June in terms of pricing following deals done at parity with Mayrsquos levels but market players maintained a cautious stance towards brightstock pricing which would typically see downward pressure towards the end of the year

The winter season in parts of Asia would typically herald a period of slow cargo uptake for brightstock as transportation logistics get more challenging

As for Group III base oils northeast Asian-origin lots are expected to see support in spot prices from June as seen from healthy uptake among buyers amid short supply from regional suppliers

Similarly in the Middle East market Group I prices started the year on a firm note

Around mid-February SN500 prices traded up to $80750tonne FOB (free on board) Iran their highest levels since ICIS began tracking the data in November 2015

SN150 also traded their record highs about the same time hitting $72750tonne FOB Iran

These record highs were held until early May despite buyers at the time showing increasing resistance to the higher levels and the uncertainty that took hold of the market ahead of a deadline for the US to decide on whether it would remain in the Iran nuclear deal

On 8 May US president Donald Trump announced that the US will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal and re-impose sanctions on Tehran consequently driving up crude prices to new highs since late 2014

Iranrsquos base oils prices were largely stable in that week but market outlook has been clouded with uncertainties following the USrsquo decision to re-impose sanctions on the country

Group I SN500 prices were stable through the early half of May at $780-805tonne FOB Iran while Group I SN150 were holding at $710-745tonne FOB Iran since early-February according to ICIS data

Prices began to decline around mid-May when it became more apparent that the increased sanctions would cause at least some disruptions to business dealings with Iranian entities

Market players said they encountered difficulties in financial transactions with Iran and many financial institutions were reluctant to take on any dealings involving Iran-based businesses for fear of conflicting with the US sanctions

On the supply side market players in the UAE said there were sufficient cargoes built up over recent months and as such

there was less demand for further spot deals in Group I particularly with the threat of renewed sanctions

Mid-May also marked the start of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan which is a typically slow season for the Middle East

Certain manufacturing activities are reduced as factories observed shorter operating hours and as many workers took some vacation time as well

The Eid ul-Fitr long holidays followed the end of Ramadan in mid-June

Asiarsquos base oils market trends for certain widely-traded Group I grades snapped out of persistent uptrend in late April against a backdrop of increasingly squeezed buyersrsquo margins and waning demand

Steady gains in FOB Asia spot prices were recorded since September 2017 on the back of regional shortages as demand surpassed output

This was partly fuelled by natural disasters in the US when Hurricane Harvey disrupted between 20 and 25 of the countryrsquos refining capacity in August

The disruption to base oils production at some units led to increased appetite for deep-sea shipments from Asia to the US

In the current market SN500 prices registered the greatest drops among the ICIS assessed grades shedding slightly more than 12 of its spot pricing between 13 April and 25 May ICIS data showed

Market participants attributed the price dip to lackluster demand brought about by a supply overhang of domestically-produced SN400 in the local Chinese market

Competitive pricing of SN400 amid ample availability curtailed import appetite among China-based buyers for SN500 of Asian origin especially since some buyers were still holding on to sufficient stocks for the near term

Back to Quick Navigation | 20Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Brightstock prices also softened reflecting increasingly squeezed buyersrsquo margins following steep gains seen from 22 September 2017 to 23 March 2018 in FOB Asia export prices

Some buyers were also sitting on sufficient inventories from active procurement earlier in the year leading to waned demand

This led refiners and traders to cut offers to encourage cargo uptake for May shipment cargoes

Group II 150N and 500600N prices largely held up on the back of potential supply woes in the summer season amid scheduled shutdowns at major Asian refineries

Taiwanrsquos Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) is expected to conduct planned maintenance in July market sources said

This led market players to hold on to expectations of buoyed spot prices for Group II base oils in the near term though significant increase is not expected for certain grades such as 500600N amid ample spot availability in the region

Group III 4 and 6cst base oils largely continued their steady price uptrend reflecting short supply among key South Korean Group III suppliers

8cst base oils of northeast Asian origin amid comparatively greater availability than its lighter counterparts saw less gains in prices since the beginning of 2018

South Korean-origin Group III base oils prices were mostly buoyant despite an influx of Middle East-origin Group III base oils into the northeast Asian market since November 2017 as South Korean-origin Group III users adhered largely to using the same material due to formulation restrictions and related OEM approvals

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PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian base oils markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 21Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPURIFIED TEREPHTHALIC ACID (PTA)

ASIA PTA SUPPLY TO LENGTHEN IN H2 ON INDIA CHINA PLANT START-UPSBy Samuel Wong

Supply of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in Asia is expected to lengthen in the second half of 2018 as new capacities will start up in the major markets of India and China amid a slowdown in demand

Major plants would have resumed production after unplanned outages to ease the current global supply tightness that has been driving up Asian prices while demand typically weakens in the third quarter

Asian PTA prices may start to come under pressure as fresh supply will hit the markets when new major regional plants start production in the third quarter

ldquoMarket sentiment is currently pessimistic about the outlook however this can quickly change if we see a sudden uptick in downstream demandrdquo a China-based producer said

In India JBF Grouprsquos 125m tonneyear PTA unit in Mangalore is expected to start up in the third quarter although the schedule is still fluid according to several market participants

In China Fuhaichuang Petrochemical formerly known as Dragon Aromatics (Zhangzhou) is planning to resume operations at its complex in the third quarter of 2018 after a prolonged shutdown

Its petrochemical complex in Zhangzhou has a 45m tonneyear PTA plant comprisings three 15m tonneyear lines two of which have been in operation since end-2017 The company is likely to restart the third line once smooth operations at its upstream paraxylene (PX) unit at the site is achieved market players said

In Europe Indorama Ventures Portugal plans to start up in July an idled 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Sines Thailand-based Indorama Ventures Ltd acquired the

plant from Portuguese Artlant PTA in late 2017

All these factors should see the narrowing of the price gap between Chinarsquos import and domestic markets as early as July after widening steadily from March to May

As of 12 June the gap stood at $96tonne down from the peak of about $111tonne on 30 May

Asiarsquos PTA prices are currently steady at firm levels Regional end-users preferred to procure cargoes on a need-to basis and were not keen on building inventories

Future movement will depend on market conditions in the downstream polyester industry

The wide price gap in Chinarsquos import and domestic markets has been deterring Chinese buyers from tapping the international spot market for supplies since March while demand was healthy especially in the downstream polyethylene terephthalate (PET) markets

Tight global supply in the first half saw Asian producers shipping out cargoes to the Middle East as well as Europe which was hit by unplanned outages in Belgium and Poland in April

Back to Quick Navigation | 22Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

In Europe BP Chemical on 15 April declared a force majeure at its Belgium PTA unit and a second force majeure on 17 May PKN Orlen on 23 April declared a force majeure at its Wloclawek PTA unit in Poland which was subsequently lifted on 2 May with spot cargoes from the plant limited until after a planned maintenance in SeptemberOctober 2018

Within Asia the southeastern region has had PTA plant outages and had to procure cargoes from the northeast in the preceding two months

Regional supply tightened further with the unexpected shutdown of Hanwha General Chemicalrsquos 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Daesan prompting a force majeure declaration on 21 May

In the first half of 2018 strong growth in demand in the downstream polyester markets in Asia particularly China supported the rally in PTA prices amid tight supply

Downstream polyester markets were enjoying positive margins keeping demand for feedstock PTA healthy

In the key China market operating rates at polyester units were higher compared with the previous year

The countryrsquos PTA production losses in January-June 2018 on the other hand were estimated at around 134m tonnes due to planned and unplanned outages

Asiarsquos PTA producers were largely enjoying healthy margins on the back of steady demand growth in the downstream polyester markets Firmer upstream energy

and feedstock PX prices have also buoyed PTA prices

In January to May 2018 Brent crude traded at $6692-7616bbl up by about 25 year

on year while PX prices were at $938-994tonne representing a 15 increase over the same period

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian purified terephthalic acid (PTA)) markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 23Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPOLYETHYLENE TEREPHTHALATE (PET)

ASIA PET TO REMAIN FIRM IN Q3 AS TIGHT SUPPLY SUPPORT PRICESBy Hazel Goh

Asian polyethylene terephthalate (PET) market is likely to remain firm in the third quarter on the back of tight supply a trend that has supported prices so far in 2018

Recently PET tight supply is a result of production cuts in Asia and Europe that have not had a clear estimated date of resuming normal operations

China Resources Packaging had cut production at its PET lines in Changzhou by 50 following notice from the government to reduce pollution in end-May It is not known for how long the production cuts will remain in place

In Europe there had been feedstock purified terephthalic acid (PTA) supply tightness leading to recent PET production cuts and force majeure by Novapet and JBF respectively

Many buyers had been purchasing on a need-to basis expecting that firm prices are unsustainable and will come down Subsequently they did not stock up cargoes ahead of the peak summer demand season for countries in the northern hemisphere

The reality turned out different and they had to accept higher prices as production cuts kept the supply tight

PET used to track feedstock price movements closely as it had been an oversupplied market and producers typically operate on thin margins

The oversupply situation changed and tightness was first felt in the third quarter of 2017 when plant closures by JBF RAK in the UAE and Belgium and by Mossi amp Ghisolfi (MampG) in the US Mexico and Brazil following financial tightness in the two PET-producing companies

Hurricane Harvey that hit the US in the third quarter led to further production cuts in the US

Back to Quick Navigation | 24Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 1

From then on supply remained tight as the plant under JBF RAK in the UAE and the former MampG plant in the US that had been acquired by Far Eastern remained shut for extended period of time even into 2018

Market players previously had concerns about where China will export its material when final anti-dumping duties (ADD) - heard to be at the same level as thepreliminary duties of 398-530 - wereimposed on its cargoes into Japan inJanuary

Japan was the top exporting destination for Chinese cargoes before the ADD following which the exports dropped drastically

While other producers such as Taiwanese southeast Asian Indian and South Korean producers sold more volumes into Japan Chinese makers sold to other markets that were relinquished by the other producers

Table 1 shows a significant difference between 2016 and 2017 in Chinarsquos export volumes to key destinations from the January-to-March period

Ranked by volume starting with largestvolume as 1

There is an ongoing anti-dumping duty (ADD) investigation by the US on PET cargoes from Brazil Pakistan Indonesia Taiwan and South Korea

The Commerce Department issued the preliminary dumping rates for Indonesia at 1316 South Korea at 881-10141 and Taiwan at 902-1189 in May Final determinations will be issued by 8 November

Even so some producers from the countries under investigation continued to receive buying enquiries from the US amid the current tight supply situation

There will be some upcoming new capacities expected in Q3 as shown in table 2 that may bring about a more balanced supply to meet the demand

The US plant acquired by Far Eastern is estimated to restart in June-July which should also ease the supply tightness

Even with the new capacities and plant restarts market participants think it is unlikely that PET market will return to the oversupply situation seen in the previous years

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Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian PET markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 25Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 2

Our English-language report coverage includes

Styrene MEG Propylene

BTX Methanol Base Oil

BPA PE MTBE

Phenol PP Mixed AromaticsAcetone Oxo-Alcohol

Trusted industryintelligence for Chinarsquoscommodity marketsDevelopments in Chinarsquos petrochemicals industrycontinue to affect the global marketplace It istherefore vital for domestic and internationalmarket players to keep track of changes withinthe country to know where opportunities lie

ICIS has long been recognised as a reliablesource of information our locally-based expertscompile reports and analyses in English tosupport industry participants dealing with Chinamarkets or seeking to trade or invest

Pricing informationOur pricing data provide key insights into pricetrends in China to support your short-termdecision-making negotiations and analyses

bull Import and export spot and contract pricesbull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity

and upstreamdownstream marketsbull Data on inventory levels and price marginsbull Plant and production news

Petrochemicals Analytics SolutionsProviding our customers with a 360-degree view of the Chinese market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker - real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for thenext 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics - key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock anddo wnstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlooks

Available for key chemical commodities

wwwiciscomchina

Discover how we can meet your market information needs

enquiryiciscom

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESMONOETHYLENE GLYCOL (MEG)

ASIA MEG TO SEE DEMAND TAPERING LOWER SUPPLY IN EARLY H2By Eric Su

The Asian monoethylene glycol (MEG) market could see demand slowing down from the end of June while supply will be reduced from a number of plant turnarounds

Inventories are expected to decline in June after offtake rates at Chinese main ports rose sharply in the last two weeks of May because of an uptick in demand from downstream polyester buyers

Demand for MEG is also expected to remain strong in the first half of June boosted by high polyester production rates of above 85 and modestly low inventory levels

A slowdown in demand may take place in the second half of June as the traditional manufacturing peak period nears its end in July

Meanwhile supply conditions could tighten because of the plant turnarounds in northeast Asia

However supply from the Middle East will likely resume to normal levels given that there were no further delay in shipments in May

MEG prices in Asia have registered year-on-year growth rates in the months to June this year

MEG prices have mostly hovered above $900tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China Main Port (CMP) while prices were mostly below $900tonne CFR CMP in 2017

Prices have been volatile in 2018 with major price swings seen on a near monthly basis since February

MEG prices in first quarter of 2018 continued the uptrend seen in the fourth quarter of 2017 rising to $1030tonne CFR CMP in early March from $922tonne CFR

CMP in late December as the higher-than-expected growth in downstream polyester fuelled bullish market sentiment

Polyester growth in 2017 was estimated at above 10 beating an originally bearish expectation of 2-3

A price downtrend was observed in March with the MEG weekly average price losing nearly 10 of its value to $929tonne CFR CMP by end-March

The price decline coincided with a sharp influx of imported cargoes which was likely a result of over-procurement in January

Back to Quick Navigation | 26Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

and February when prices were trending upwards

March 2018 import volumes rose to nearly 1m tonnes a record three-year high according to official China customs data

MEG prices rebounded in April rising by around 9 from end-March to $1014tonne CFR CMP by end-April ahead of the traditional peak period for the downstream polyester sector The average polyester production rate rose to above 85 during the period

MEG also achieved its to-date weekly peak of $1042tonne CFR CMP in the week ending 20 April

Supply tightness was also observed in the Chinese domestic market because of shipment delays from the Middle East and logistical issues at China main ports over the same period

The lack of availability of prompt cargoes also led to an atypical price spread between April and May delivery parcels

Normally the spread between arrived-at-port and far-term arrival cargoes is at $0-10tonne CFR CMP but this widened to $20-30tonne CFR CMP This drove concerns of sharp price adjustments in May once April deliveries were fulfilled

These concerns came true as MEG prices

began to slide in May MEG weekly prices stood at $928tonne CFR CMP in the last week of May falling from $1003tonne CFR CMP in early May

High inventory levels have also weighed on MEG prices Inventory levels were above 900000 tonnes from early May onward rising to 938000 tonnes by in late March Most market participants deemed inventory levels above 900000 tonnes to be high

The increase in inventory levels in May were largely attributed to the arrival of Middle East shipments which were previously due for arrival in April

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian MEG markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 27Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSETHYLENE

NE ASIA ETHYLENE H2 OUTLOOK HINGES ON NEW SUPPLY SM PLANTBy Yeow Pei Lin

Northeast (NE) Asiarsquos ethylene (C2) second-half 2018 outlook is uncertain as several crackers are scheduled for maintenance but such production losses could be offset by the start up of a new plant and cargoes from outside the region

More than 20 crackers in Asia are slated to undergo maintenance in 2018 with the estimated capacity losses totalling more than 185m tonnes Most of the turnarounds in the first half of the year were concentrated in Japan ndash a key exporter to China

However several more companies are to carry out turnarounds in June and the rest of the year

The impact on the regional balance will depend on the start-up progress of a new facility in South Korea and on whether the strong exports from southeast Asia and Europe in the first half of 2018 will continue

Shipments from Yeosu South Korea will start to slow down in August ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at complexes in that region

Exports will recover by December when Lotte Chemical brings on-stream an added capacity of 200000 tonnesyear at its Yeosu cracker

The facility will undergo an expansion during a turnaround from late September to October

Shipments from Ulsan another petrochemical cluster in South Korea will grow in the second half of 2018

Newcomer S-Oil is expected to begin commercial operations at its residue upgrading complex (RUC) in Onsan in the second half of June

The companyrsquos entire ethylene output of up

to around 200000 tonnesyear is intended for the merchant market as it does not have any downstream plants

Exports from southeast Asian producers will continue to be driven by the higher value from ethylene sales in the ethylene versus polyethylene (PE) trade-off

There will however be supply constraints

Four crackers in the region will undergo

maintenance and the affected producers include ExxonMobil and PTT Global Chemicals (PTTGC) that were regular exporters in the first half of 2018

Exports from Europe will likely be influenced by the performance of the PE sector

The outlook for the PE market in Europe is uncertain given the growing prospect of competitively-priced exports from the new US plants

Back to Quick Navigation | 28Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Ethylene costs in the US have been at low levels since early 2018 as production growth outpaces that for consumption

Since late 2017 about 3m tonnesyear of new ethylene capacity and about 35m tonnesyear of new PE capacity have started up in the US

The new crackers have been running well but several of the new PE plants struggled to reach full operating rates

Exports from Saudi Arabia are expected to be constrained by increased domestic consumption

Petro Rabigh announced in April that the last few plants in its Phase 2 project including a 75000 tonneyear ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) unit have started up

The companyrsquos ethylene exports could fall further in the second half of 2018 following the completion of its PE plant maintenance shutdowns earlier in the year

Chinarsquos import demand is poised for further growth when a new 260000 tonneyear styrene monomer (SM) plant starts up in the third quarter as planned

Anhui Haoyuan Chemical will be operating the unit in Fuyang Anhui on a standalone basis as its plans to build a methanol-to-olefin (MTO) plant have been put on hold amid high methanol prices

The plant will require around 78000 tonnes of ethylene annually to operate at maximum capacity

Based on the above factors it was not immediately clear if the ethylene prices in the second half will follow the volatile trend they displayed in the first five months of 2018

NE Asia spot ethylene prices were volatile from January to May as the impact of a heavy regional cracker turnaround schedule and strong Chinese demand was at times outweighed by strong exports from southeast Asia the Middle East and Europe

The market started the year at above a two and a half year high of $1415tonne CFR (cost amp freight) NE Asia in early January

Subsequent transacted prices fluctuated within a low $1200stonne to mid $1300stonne CFR NE Asia band in the five months ended 31 May

Prices in the first quarter were initially weighed down by ample supply from producers in the Middle East and Asia due to a series of PE plant shutdowns - both planned and unplanned

That was despite strong pre-Lunar New Year holiday restocking activities in China

Demand was bolstered by the start up of a 500000 tonneyear non-integrated SM plant and generally healthy downstream margins for producers outside the PE sector

End-users were also keen to build up their inventories because of the slow progress in their 2018 term contract discussions ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at facilities of key exporters in the region

In addition a major ethylene oxide (EO) maker was seeking more import cargoes following a disruption in supply from its upstream MTO unit The plant was shut twice between late November and the first half of February because of high feedstock methanol costs

The market recovered in early March in line with the start of the annual cracker turnaround season in northeast Asia where

scheduled capacity losses in 2018 will be overall higher than the previous year

That explained why the countryrsquos exports from January to April slumped by 14 year-on-year to 201274 tonnes

In late April northeast Asiarsquos spot prices fell again after a surprisingly large quantity of deep-sea spot cargoes were sold into Asia for delivery between the middle of May and the first half of June

There were at least 55000-60000 tonnes of cargoes from Europe in addition to 11000 tonnes of US supply for that delivery period Europe was in a long position because of derivative maintenance shutdowns and production problems

Continued strong exports from southeast Asia owing to downstream production issues and the weak performance of the linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) market contributed to the downbeat sentiment

The ample supply outweighed Chinarsquos robust import demand

Buying interest in China was strong for April and May arrival cargoes on the back

Back to Quick Navigation | 29Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

of healthy downstream margins for certain downstream markets such as SM EO and monoethylene glycol (MEG)

Ethylene buyers in China were also keen to book deep-sea cargoes to offset the expected regional production losses from cracker turnarounds

Prices rebounded quickly in mid-May

aided by a bullish SM market and reduced domestic supply

Some MTO operators lowered production in May as high feedstock methanol costs led to squeezed margins while a key producer in east China lowered its cracker run rates unexpectedly

Sharp increases in feedstock naphtha costs

which tracked gains on crude oil futures also helped set a floor to the earlier price declines

By early June spot ethylene prices had touched a 20-week high raising questions on whether the market will see similar price volatility in the second half of 2018

Producers will turn hawkish if the outlook for crude and naphtha markets remains upbeat

Back to Quick Navigation | 30Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSPROPYLENE

TIGHT NE ASIA PROPYLENE SUPPLY TO LIMIT H2 PRICE FLUCTUATIONSBy Joson Ng

Tight propylene (C3) supply in northeast Asia amid a heavy turnaround schedule in 2018 will continue supporting regional prices of the material into the second half

Sellers are likely to continue passing on firmer costs to buyers which are wary of October when heavy propylene production losses are expected

Buyersrsquo resistance in the key China market would keep any further increase in propylene prices in check with some downstream producers considering cutting output due to high feedstock costs

At the start of June propylene prices have weakened ending the strong general uptrend since end-March amid weakness in Chinarsquos domestic market as demand softened due to turnarounds at downstream polypropylene (PP) plants

However the downward pressure on regional prices may be temporary as overall supply in Asia is expected to be tight

In early June spot propylene prices in northeast Asia were about 9 higher from the start of 2018 according to ICIS data

The year started on a bullish note fuelled by a heavier cracker turnaround schedule compared with 2017 and higher premium levels concluded for contract cargoes

The uptrend was sustained into February due to restocking activities in various import markets in northeast Asia before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February

Before the holidays some South Korean producers were convinced the market will experience supply shortage as both GS Caltexrsquos fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity and Yeochun NCCrsquos (YNCC) cracker ndash which can produce 280000 tonnesyear of propylene ndash were due for maintenance in February through to April

But propylene prices surprisingly weakened from 9 February to end-March without demand support from Chinarsquos weak PP market which struggled through sluggish sales and high inventory after the countryrsquos week-long Lunar New Year holiday

A renewed wave of scheduled turnarounds at regional plants tightened supply and drove up propylene prices in April and May

In Taiwan Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) took its residue fluid catalytic

Back to Quick Navigation | 31Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

cracking (RFCC) unit with a 350000 tonneyear propylene capacity off stream from 1 March to mid-April while CPC Corp shut its 100000 tonneyear FCC unit on 10 April and restarted in early June

In South Korea GS Caltex also had a turnaround at its FCC unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity from 19 February to 5 April

SK Advanced shut its propane dehydrogenated (PDH) unit with 600000 tonneyear propylene capacity on 21 April to early May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian propylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 32Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

To talk to someone about price forecast reports call the numbers below or email us at salesukiciscomAsia-Pacific Europe Africa and Middle East The AmericasTel +65 6789 8828 Tel +44 20 8652 3335 Tel +1 713 525 2600 or Toll free +1 888 525 3255 (US and Canada only)

ICIS price forecast reportsSupply demand and price trends at a glance

ICIS price forecast reports provide a clear view of prices and supply and demand trends for the next 12 months Packed with vital information the report includes everything you need to assess where the market is heading and the impact or opportunity that presents for your business

To find out more or take a trial visit wwwiciscompriceforecast

Price Forecast Window

ICIS price forecasts are now available on the Dashboard channel using the Price Forecast Window which will enable users to

n Chart the price forecast against the last (rolling) twelve months of related price history

n Plot the last 12 months to view forecast progression and ICIS forecast accuracy

n Convert data into different currencies and units and download this data into Excel in order to easily enter into your own calculations

How price forecast reports can help youn Understand the marketUse ICIS price forecast reports to understand where the market is heading and identify the risks and the opportunities for your business What are the major demand developments for your product n Safeguard commercial decisionsUse market information to make better-informed business decisions relating to supply and demand Learn about changes in market capacities What factors will affect supply for you n Budgeting and planningWhether you are planning how much you will be spending in the short-to medium or even long term use the price forecast reports to help assess future prices for your product What will the price of your product be in six monthsrsquo time

Price forecast reports currently

available

Available as price forecast windows only

Polypropylene

Polyethylene

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StyrenePolystyrene

Methanol

Ethylene

Propylene

Styrene

Asia Europe US Global

3

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3

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3

OLEFINSBUTADIENE

ASIA BD TO FLUCTUATE IN H2 AS SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE SHIFTSBy Helen Yan

Asiarsquos butadiene (BD) spot prices for July shipments are likely to face downward pressure but any price downtrend is likely to reverse when cracker turnarounds start to kick in from September onwards

BD prices are expected to be weighed down before seeing support again in the third quarter as the supply and demand balance shifts during this period

The fourth quarter will likely see support for BD prices although the increases may be tempered by resistance from the downstream synthetic rubber (SR) makers to any significant price hikes

The busy cracker turnaround season in September-November will likely see supply tightening at the same time that demand is expected to pick up during this period

Several crackers and BD units including South Korearsquos Lotte Chemical LG Chem and Chinarsquos Shanghai Secco and Maoming Petrochemical are scheduled to shut during

the September to November time frame

In the near term BD spot prices are likely to continue to trend lower as demand wanes while supply at the same time is expected to lengthen due to an influx of deep-sea cargoes and regional cracker restarts

More than 15000 tonnes of deep-sea cargoes from EU are expected to arrive in Asia in June and July at the same time that crackers in Asia including Indiarsquos Haldia Petrochemical and Indonesiarsquos Chandra Asri resume their production following their maintenance shutdowns

On 8 June spot prices fell to $1725tonne CFR (cost amp freight) northeast (NE) Asia the second consecutive week of decline after spiralling upwards in the two months since early April

BD spot prices had increased by more than 40 since early April peaking at $1800tonne CFR NE Asia on 25 May

Strong demand from derivative acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) makers which were running their plants at optimal rates had bolstered the BD price upsurge during this period

However derivative styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) and polybutadiene rubber (PBR) producers the key consumers of BD cut their production output given the continued erosion in margins

Several major SBR and PBR producers said their margins had fallen into negative territory and retreated from the BD spot market in June

Chinese spot appetite in particular tapered off as domestic BD prices were lower compared with the US dollar-denominated import prices

In China Hangzhou Zhechen Jilin Petrochemical Zhejiang Transfar and Shen Hua Chemical were some of the SBR and PBR plants that are shut for maintenance in June and July

Several SBR and PBR plants in Taiwan and South Korea were also running at lower rates following the 40 BD price spike in the two months from early April to end-May

In South Korea major SR producer Korea Kumho Petrochemical PC was running its SBR and PBR plants at reduced rates

Back to Quick Navigation | 33Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian butadiene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 34Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Similarly Taiwanrsquos TSRC also cut the production output of its SBR and PBR plants

The outlook for the fourth quarter is expected to see a different turn of events with SBR and PBR plants resuming their production and ramping up their operating rates while supply during the last quarter is expected to tighten from the heavy cracker turnaround season

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYETHYLENE (PE)

SOUTHEAST ASIA PE MARKET FACES LONGER H2 SUPPLY WEAK DEMANDBy Felita Widjaja

Southeast Asiarsquos polyethylene (PE) market may be facing longer supply in the second half hinging on how the US-China trade spat plays out amid the regionrsquos weakening demand for imports

Global PE trade flows will be affected should China the biggest importer of spot PE cargoes in the world decide to impose retaliatory 25 tariff on US cargoes

Southeast Asia as an alternative buying region might be hard pressed to absorb additional supply from the US where massive PE capacities recently started up which were meant to cater to huge Chinese demand

Around 5m tonnes of additional US PE capacities are expected from several major projects including those in the pipeline to start up within the second half of 2018

China primarily imports PE cargoes from Asia and the Middle East while the US is its sixth leading PE supplier in 2017

ldquoEventually more substantial and regular volume of US [PE] cargoes are expected to be traded in Asia in the second half of the year as we have yet to see them in the first half of this yearrdquo said a regional trader

Any changes in trade flows would pose challenges to US suppliers in the short term as they would need to revamp their logistics and distribution channels to redirect cargoes to other markets

Suppliers from the Middle East meanwhile might take the opportunity to supply more cargoes to China and would mean fewer volumes available to the southeast Asian market

The Middle East is southeast Asiarsquos major PE supplier

Demand for PE imports in southeast Asia has been weak amid lower prices in

Back to Quick Navigation | 35Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

the domestic markets as in the case of Thailand

ldquoThai traders are not keen to import as local prices are more competitive so they do not have the margin to sell the imported cargoes in local market Only some converters who need specific cargoes continue to importrdquo said a local Thai trader

Malaysia and Indonesia with predominantly Muslim populations have seen market activity slow down since mid-May when the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan started Ramadan ends with the Eid ul-Fitr holiday on 15 June

The Indonesian government has declared a longer Eid-ul Fitr holiday this year from 11-20 June

Markets in Singapore and the Philippines will be closed for the mid-June holiday as well

With supply expected to become long some market players expect regional PE prices in July and August to ease from

June with restocking activities expected to kick in towards the end of the third quarter

In the first half of 2018 southeast Asiarsquos average prices for commodity PE were largely stable to firm owing to suppliersrsquo relatively comfortable-to-tight supply for most of the period

At the start of June high density polyethylene (HDPE) film grade prices averaged $1395tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia while linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) film were at $1210tonne CFR SE Asia and $1265tonne CFR SE Asia respectively according to ICIS data

Prices had spiked in the first quarter as suppliers were holding comfortable-to-tight inventory as several regional producers have scheduled turnarounds at their plants in March Production issues and shutdowns in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia also limited availability of imports to southeast Asia during this period

Supply for HDPE film was particularly tight as some producers from the Middle East as well as Asia switched their focus into making HDPE pipe grade amid robust demand and better netbacks

The price uptrend across most PE grades could not be sustained in the second quarter although prices remained relatively stable-to-firm

The depreciation of local currencies in southeast Asia against the US dollar in most of the second quarter was also curbing overall demand for imports A weaker currency makes US dollar-denominated imports expensive

ldquoIndonesian buyers have not been buying much cargoes as the market slowed down during Ramadan and also because of weak rupiah which led the central bank to increase interest rate to limit the depreciationrdquo said a regional producer

CHINA PE IMPORTS TO STAY STRONG AMID DOMESTIC PLANT TURNAROUNDS By Angie Li

Chinarsquos polyethylene (PE) imports are expected to remain strong for the rest of the year after posting record volumes in January to April 2018 amid scheduled turnarounds at domestic facilities

Buyers in China have been accumulating imported PE cargoes as these were priced lower compared futures prices since the start of the year

More cargoes will be available to China as new capacities in the US are expected to boost production

For the month of May the countryrsquos PE imports are projected to reach 12m tonnes higher than the monthly average in the first four months of 2018

In January to April 2018 its PE imports volumes totaled 447m tonnes up by 12 from the previous corresponding period according to industry sources

The import volumes were making up for the production losses in the domestic market due to scheduled turnarounds

On 1 June low density PE (LDPE) imports were assessed at $1155-1180tonne linear low density PE (LLDPE) stood at $1150-1170tonne while high density PE (HDPE) film products were at $1340-1400tonne according to ICIS data

The prices have increased 15-62 from end-March but the gains came in lower than market playersrsquo expectations considering the heavy production loss due to turnarounds from April

Back to Quick Navigation | 36Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

An estimated 500000 tonnes are expected to be shaved in the second quarter due to scheduled maintenance at domestic facilities according ICIS data

ldquoWe thought the hefty plant turnarounds in the second quarter should lead to a surge in PE prices but the LDPE and LLDPE prices were less than satisfactory although HDPE prices [were] highrdquo said an east China-based trader referring to both the import and domestic PE prices

Strong imports amid hedging activities bloated the total supply in China in January to April to 998m tonnes up by 8 from the previous corresponding period with supply of LDPE and LLDPE up by 14 and 8 respectively market sources said

Imports of HDPE inched up by 2 over the same period given the gradersquos comparatively higher prices compared with LLDPE and LDPE

Increased availability due to recent capacity expansions and start-ups in Asia the Middle East also fuels Chinarsquos appetite for import cargoes

In the first quarter of 2018 additional cargoes from Saudi Arabia were mostly from Sadara Chemical which started up its 750000 tonneyear swing plant and 350000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Al Jubail during late 2016 and early 2017 respectively

Cargoes of Iran origin augmented the total volume from the UAE as market players try to go around the financial sanctions on Tehran Kordestan Petrochemicalrsquos 300000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Iran came on stream in March 2017

UAErsquos Borouge has also ramped up pipe and HDPE film exports to China during the period according to a supplier in the Middle East

Meanwhile PE imports from Singapore surged 38 year on year while those from India more than doubled to 127000 tonnes according to China Customs data

The ban on waste plastics implemented in China in the year also bolstered imports of virgin PE Some waste plastics processed overseas and then re-entered the market as virgin products but these volumes were limited

Last year China has imported 194m tonnes of PE waste plastics while

volumes in 2018 will be negligible with the implemention of the ban

Chinarsquos PE production this year is expected to increase by around 7 to about 17m tonnes in 2018 with imports projected to grow by 102 to around 13m tonnes according to a source from state-owned petrochemical giant PetroChina

Domestic demand for PE on the other hand is forecast to grow by 8 this year mainly from the packaging and pipe markets

Chinarsquos ongoing campaign to switch to using gas for power generation instead of coal is expected to continue boosting demand for PE gas pipes this year

The packaging industry will also drive up PE consumption underpinned by growth in electronic commerce Chinarsquos express delivery volumes reached 137bn packages during January-April 2018 based on data from the recent China Express Industry Development Conference in May

Back to Quick Navigation | 37Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 38Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

By Jonathan Lopez

ICIS NewsThe leading news service for real-time ground breaking news and analysis on the global petrochemicals markets

The ICIS News services give you unrivalled access to the most in-depth stories impacting the petrochemicals markets influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions

Our team of global editors are reporting around the clock to bring you the latest news and analysis so that you get the full picture of market and pricing developments first providing you with invaluable foresight to take advantage of every opportunity and to stay ahead of your competitors

With ICIS News you will be the first to read

Breaking news on the chemical markets that will impact your business

News on market moves deals and announcements that will affect your organisation

Force majeures closures and developments that influence your commodity prices

Expert analysis on industry trends and hot topics ndash know whatrsquos happening and why

Searchable archive with over 14 million articles from the past 10 years

Chemical Business News Base (CBNB) is a premium resource available on ICIS News It provides you with an extensive external source of upstream and downstream petrochemical news in summarised snapshots so you can quickly and easily get the latest updates on whatrsquos important to you

CBNB offers readers

Fast and consistent coverage on news facts figures from the upstream and downstream petrochemicals industry

Access to over 700 news sources including technical and trade journals company literature market research reports stockbroker reports books and directories

User-friendly search functionality to find articles most relevant to you from around the globe

Quick and easy-to-read summarised snapshots of articles with option to access full articles from the original source

ICIS Chemical Business digital magazine (ICB) Our global team of experts digests and summarises the key issues and their potential impact on the chemical markets offering a comprehensive overview of the key developments that matter most-along with informed opinion and in-depth analysis

ICB features include

In-depth insight into chemical price changes and their impact on the markets

Understand the detail behind the headline news stories

Find out about supply amp demand trends and the factors impacting them

Get the complete picture of the chemical markets ndash all in one e-magazine

Easy access via e-magazine and premium magazine website

Find out more wwwiciscomnews

ICIS News offers access to additional sources including the ICIS Chemical Business Magazine and Chemical Business News Base (CBNB)

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYPROPYLENE (PP)

SE ASIA PP PRICES MAY COME UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 AS SUPPLY LENGTHENSBy Leanne Tan

Southeast Asiarsquos polypropylene (PP) market may come under pressure in the second half of the year on account of lengthening regional supply and weak downstream demand

Spot prices have been on the rise for most of May buoyed by bullish sentiment in the Chinese market and firm upstream feedstock costs

Margins for PP makers have been lower on average compared with levels in the previous year

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refinery amp Petrochemicals is scheduled to start up its 400000 tonneyear PP production unit in the third quarter The project was initially scheduled to start up in the first quarter of 2018

While domestic demand will continue to outstrip local production the countryrsquos reliance on imports may be diminished when the new plant starts up

Converters in the country have been opting to keep inventories lean in the short term amid expectations that prices may eventually weaken when more domestic supply becomes available

ldquoBuyers donrsquot want to buy too much import cargoes now not just because prices are high but also because there will be more locally-produced materials very soonrdquo a Vietnamese trader said

In Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan is expected to start commercial production at its expanded PP facility in Pasir Gudang in June or July The plantrsquos capacity will be raised by 200000 tonnesyear from 400000 tonnesyear

Import availabilities from South Korea are expected to lengthen in the medium-to-long term with S-Oil expected to complete an olefin downstream complex (ODC) at its Onsan refinery in Ulsan which will include a

405000 tonneyear PP capacity

On the demand front weakness is likely to persist in the second half with converters and end-users likely to continue buying spot cargoes on a hand-to-mouth basis

Indonesiarsquos demand in particular has been below expectations since the start of 2018 and this is likely to continue in the second half of the year according to market players

Back to Quick Navigation | 39Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Some players said import demand for dutiable cargoes may increase in the second half of the year as this is typically when the government issues duty exemption facilities

The duty exemption facilities are issued on a yearly basis which enable converters to import some PP volumes without extra cost

In Malaysia the removal of the 6 goods and services tax (GST) so far has had no immediate impact on the PP market although there are some expectations the move could potentially boost demand in the consumer market further down the road

In Vietnam demand for PP flat yarn has entered a seasonal lull from May to early July and will not pick up until August when the summer harvest begins

PP is widely used in the manufacture of woven sacks (for rice sacks) flexible packaging carpets household appliances and automotive parts

Spot PP prices in southeast Asia have been an uptrend for most of the first half

The PP market begun the year on a bullish note with spot prices surging by almost 10 over the course of two months all-origins PP flat yarn prices peaked at $1295tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia on 2 March

Healthy demand in China helped to provide support to spot prices in southeast Asia in the first quarter with a tight global spot supply leading to further price escalations

Some suppliers pulled back from the southeast Asian spot market to capitalise on better netbacks in other countries including Japan and Pakistan leading to further curtailed spot availability in southeast Asia

The market rally started to lose steam in early March amid subdued demand and a build-up of domestic inventories in China after the Lunar New Year holidays

The bearish sentiment soon spilled over into southeast Asia with Chinese suppliers pushing some volumes into southeast Asia amid an open arbitrage window

Vietnam remains the market of choice for Chinese exporters and PP import prices in the country plummeted as the result of the lengthened spot availability

However the bearish run was short-lived and prices soon bottomed out in early April

Bullish momentum in the upstream crude and naphtha markets propelled spot prices of polymers higher

Despite lacklustre downstream demand price hikes in April and May were commonplace as producers sought higher asking prices in view of narrower margins

TIGHT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT CHINA PP MARKET DESPITE WEAK DEMANDBy Dora Xue

Tight supply would buoy up Chinarsquos polypropylene (PP) prices in the near term despite weak downstream demand

The market is expecting heavy production losses following recent unexpected outages at five domestic facilities from May and scheduled turnarounds at other plants

In the week ended on 1 June domestic prices for PP flat yarn in east China were assessed at Chinese yuan (CNY) 9075tonne after a steady increase from early April according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos import prices for the same material stood at $1245tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China largely tracking movement in the domestic market over the past two months according to ICIS data

The strong PP prices have also started to deter buyers from purchasing more spot cargoes

ldquoPP prices are too high We donrsquot want to store too much in our warehouserdquo a buyer said

Downstream demand typically goes on a lull in June and July but any downward pressure on prices will be negated by a further tightening of supply as major plants will be taken off line for maintenance

ldquoWhen the maintenance season finishes in late June [PP] prices may start to go downrdquo a trader said

Demand is considered weakest at Qingdao in the eastern Shandong province due to government-mandated production cuts and logistics restrictions ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (SCO Summit) on 9-10 June

As of 1 June the combined polyolefin inventories of Chinese petrochemical majors Sinopec and PetroChina have declined back to normal levels of 700000 tonnes from a high of 1m tonnes in early March market sources said

Import supply to China may not improve in the short term as suppliers still deem other

Back to Quick Navigation | 40Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

Back to Quick Navigation | 43Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

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PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

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PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 21: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

Back to Quick Navigation | 19Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian toluene markets

BASE OILSBASE OILS

ASIA MIDEAST BASE OILS FIRM IN H1 BUT SOME PULLBACK LIKELY IN H2By Jasmine Khoo amp Izham Ahmad

Asia base oils Group I SN150 and Group II 150N prices are expected to remain firm on persistently low supply whereas the heavy grades - Group I SN500 and Group II 500600N - could come under pressure on ample availability

Into the second half of the year base oils supply from Iran are expected to be stable with no known maintenance plans due over the following few months from June and that could add further pressure on prices amid the weak demand outlook

Only one Iranian refiner is due for a maintenance shutdown in the second half of the year possibly sometime in September according to market sources

In Group II like in Asia short supply of 150N and 500600N is expected to support prices in coming months but the Group II segment in the Middle East is a much smaller market for producers

Major Group II and III producers in Saudi Arabia Qatar Bahrain and UAE also continue to focus on their traditional markets outside of the Middle East due to stronger demand and higher margins

Brightstock remained largely stable for June in terms of pricing following deals done at parity with Mayrsquos levels but market players maintained a cautious stance towards brightstock pricing which would typically see downward pressure towards the end of the year

The winter season in parts of Asia would typically herald a period of slow cargo uptake for brightstock as transportation logistics get more challenging

As for Group III base oils northeast Asian-origin lots are expected to see support in spot prices from June as seen from healthy uptake among buyers amid short supply from regional suppliers

Similarly in the Middle East market Group I prices started the year on a firm note

Around mid-February SN500 prices traded up to $80750tonne FOB (free on board) Iran their highest levels since ICIS began tracking the data in November 2015

SN150 also traded their record highs about the same time hitting $72750tonne FOB Iran

These record highs were held until early May despite buyers at the time showing increasing resistance to the higher levels and the uncertainty that took hold of the market ahead of a deadline for the US to decide on whether it would remain in the Iran nuclear deal

On 8 May US president Donald Trump announced that the US will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal and re-impose sanctions on Tehran consequently driving up crude prices to new highs since late 2014

Iranrsquos base oils prices were largely stable in that week but market outlook has been clouded with uncertainties following the USrsquo decision to re-impose sanctions on the country

Group I SN500 prices were stable through the early half of May at $780-805tonne FOB Iran while Group I SN150 were holding at $710-745tonne FOB Iran since early-February according to ICIS data

Prices began to decline around mid-May when it became more apparent that the increased sanctions would cause at least some disruptions to business dealings with Iranian entities

Market players said they encountered difficulties in financial transactions with Iran and many financial institutions were reluctant to take on any dealings involving Iran-based businesses for fear of conflicting with the US sanctions

On the supply side market players in the UAE said there were sufficient cargoes built up over recent months and as such

there was less demand for further spot deals in Group I particularly with the threat of renewed sanctions

Mid-May also marked the start of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan which is a typically slow season for the Middle East

Certain manufacturing activities are reduced as factories observed shorter operating hours and as many workers took some vacation time as well

The Eid ul-Fitr long holidays followed the end of Ramadan in mid-June

Asiarsquos base oils market trends for certain widely-traded Group I grades snapped out of persistent uptrend in late April against a backdrop of increasingly squeezed buyersrsquo margins and waning demand

Steady gains in FOB Asia spot prices were recorded since September 2017 on the back of regional shortages as demand surpassed output

This was partly fuelled by natural disasters in the US when Hurricane Harvey disrupted between 20 and 25 of the countryrsquos refining capacity in August

The disruption to base oils production at some units led to increased appetite for deep-sea shipments from Asia to the US

In the current market SN500 prices registered the greatest drops among the ICIS assessed grades shedding slightly more than 12 of its spot pricing between 13 April and 25 May ICIS data showed

Market participants attributed the price dip to lackluster demand brought about by a supply overhang of domestically-produced SN400 in the local Chinese market

Competitive pricing of SN400 amid ample availability curtailed import appetite among China-based buyers for SN500 of Asian origin especially since some buyers were still holding on to sufficient stocks for the near term

Back to Quick Navigation | 20Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Brightstock prices also softened reflecting increasingly squeezed buyersrsquo margins following steep gains seen from 22 September 2017 to 23 March 2018 in FOB Asia export prices

Some buyers were also sitting on sufficient inventories from active procurement earlier in the year leading to waned demand

This led refiners and traders to cut offers to encourage cargo uptake for May shipment cargoes

Group II 150N and 500600N prices largely held up on the back of potential supply woes in the summer season amid scheduled shutdowns at major Asian refineries

Taiwanrsquos Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) is expected to conduct planned maintenance in July market sources said

This led market players to hold on to expectations of buoyed spot prices for Group II base oils in the near term though significant increase is not expected for certain grades such as 500600N amid ample spot availability in the region

Group III 4 and 6cst base oils largely continued their steady price uptrend reflecting short supply among key South Korean Group III suppliers

8cst base oils of northeast Asian origin amid comparatively greater availability than its lighter counterparts saw less gains in prices since the beginning of 2018

South Korean-origin Group III base oils prices were mostly buoyant despite an influx of Middle East-origin Group III base oils into the northeast Asian market since November 2017 as South Korean-origin Group III users adhered largely to using the same material due to formulation restrictions and related OEM approvals

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Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian base oils markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 21Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPURIFIED TEREPHTHALIC ACID (PTA)

ASIA PTA SUPPLY TO LENGTHEN IN H2 ON INDIA CHINA PLANT START-UPSBy Samuel Wong

Supply of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in Asia is expected to lengthen in the second half of 2018 as new capacities will start up in the major markets of India and China amid a slowdown in demand

Major plants would have resumed production after unplanned outages to ease the current global supply tightness that has been driving up Asian prices while demand typically weakens in the third quarter

Asian PTA prices may start to come under pressure as fresh supply will hit the markets when new major regional plants start production in the third quarter

ldquoMarket sentiment is currently pessimistic about the outlook however this can quickly change if we see a sudden uptick in downstream demandrdquo a China-based producer said

In India JBF Grouprsquos 125m tonneyear PTA unit in Mangalore is expected to start up in the third quarter although the schedule is still fluid according to several market participants

In China Fuhaichuang Petrochemical formerly known as Dragon Aromatics (Zhangzhou) is planning to resume operations at its complex in the third quarter of 2018 after a prolonged shutdown

Its petrochemical complex in Zhangzhou has a 45m tonneyear PTA plant comprisings three 15m tonneyear lines two of which have been in operation since end-2017 The company is likely to restart the third line once smooth operations at its upstream paraxylene (PX) unit at the site is achieved market players said

In Europe Indorama Ventures Portugal plans to start up in July an idled 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Sines Thailand-based Indorama Ventures Ltd acquired the

plant from Portuguese Artlant PTA in late 2017

All these factors should see the narrowing of the price gap between Chinarsquos import and domestic markets as early as July after widening steadily from March to May

As of 12 June the gap stood at $96tonne down from the peak of about $111tonne on 30 May

Asiarsquos PTA prices are currently steady at firm levels Regional end-users preferred to procure cargoes on a need-to basis and were not keen on building inventories

Future movement will depend on market conditions in the downstream polyester industry

The wide price gap in Chinarsquos import and domestic markets has been deterring Chinese buyers from tapping the international spot market for supplies since March while demand was healthy especially in the downstream polyethylene terephthalate (PET) markets

Tight global supply in the first half saw Asian producers shipping out cargoes to the Middle East as well as Europe which was hit by unplanned outages in Belgium and Poland in April

Back to Quick Navigation | 22Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

In Europe BP Chemical on 15 April declared a force majeure at its Belgium PTA unit and a second force majeure on 17 May PKN Orlen on 23 April declared a force majeure at its Wloclawek PTA unit in Poland which was subsequently lifted on 2 May with spot cargoes from the plant limited until after a planned maintenance in SeptemberOctober 2018

Within Asia the southeastern region has had PTA plant outages and had to procure cargoes from the northeast in the preceding two months

Regional supply tightened further with the unexpected shutdown of Hanwha General Chemicalrsquos 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Daesan prompting a force majeure declaration on 21 May

In the first half of 2018 strong growth in demand in the downstream polyester markets in Asia particularly China supported the rally in PTA prices amid tight supply

Downstream polyester markets were enjoying positive margins keeping demand for feedstock PTA healthy

In the key China market operating rates at polyester units were higher compared with the previous year

The countryrsquos PTA production losses in January-June 2018 on the other hand were estimated at around 134m tonnes due to planned and unplanned outages

Asiarsquos PTA producers were largely enjoying healthy margins on the back of steady demand growth in the downstream polyester markets Firmer upstream energy

and feedstock PX prices have also buoyed PTA prices

In January to May 2018 Brent crude traded at $6692-7616bbl up by about 25 year

on year while PX prices were at $938-994tonne representing a 15 increase over the same period

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian purified terephthalic acid (PTA)) markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 23Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPOLYETHYLENE TEREPHTHALATE (PET)

ASIA PET TO REMAIN FIRM IN Q3 AS TIGHT SUPPLY SUPPORT PRICESBy Hazel Goh

Asian polyethylene terephthalate (PET) market is likely to remain firm in the third quarter on the back of tight supply a trend that has supported prices so far in 2018

Recently PET tight supply is a result of production cuts in Asia and Europe that have not had a clear estimated date of resuming normal operations

China Resources Packaging had cut production at its PET lines in Changzhou by 50 following notice from the government to reduce pollution in end-May It is not known for how long the production cuts will remain in place

In Europe there had been feedstock purified terephthalic acid (PTA) supply tightness leading to recent PET production cuts and force majeure by Novapet and JBF respectively

Many buyers had been purchasing on a need-to basis expecting that firm prices are unsustainable and will come down Subsequently they did not stock up cargoes ahead of the peak summer demand season for countries in the northern hemisphere

The reality turned out different and they had to accept higher prices as production cuts kept the supply tight

PET used to track feedstock price movements closely as it had been an oversupplied market and producers typically operate on thin margins

The oversupply situation changed and tightness was first felt in the third quarter of 2017 when plant closures by JBF RAK in the UAE and Belgium and by Mossi amp Ghisolfi (MampG) in the US Mexico and Brazil following financial tightness in the two PET-producing companies

Hurricane Harvey that hit the US in the third quarter led to further production cuts in the US

Back to Quick Navigation | 24Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 1

From then on supply remained tight as the plant under JBF RAK in the UAE and the former MampG plant in the US that had been acquired by Far Eastern remained shut for extended period of time even into 2018

Market players previously had concerns about where China will export its material when final anti-dumping duties (ADD) - heard to be at the same level as thepreliminary duties of 398-530 - wereimposed on its cargoes into Japan inJanuary

Japan was the top exporting destination for Chinese cargoes before the ADD following which the exports dropped drastically

While other producers such as Taiwanese southeast Asian Indian and South Korean producers sold more volumes into Japan Chinese makers sold to other markets that were relinquished by the other producers

Table 1 shows a significant difference between 2016 and 2017 in Chinarsquos export volumes to key destinations from the January-to-March period

Ranked by volume starting with largestvolume as 1

There is an ongoing anti-dumping duty (ADD) investigation by the US on PET cargoes from Brazil Pakistan Indonesia Taiwan and South Korea

The Commerce Department issued the preliminary dumping rates for Indonesia at 1316 South Korea at 881-10141 and Taiwan at 902-1189 in May Final determinations will be issued by 8 November

Even so some producers from the countries under investigation continued to receive buying enquiries from the US amid the current tight supply situation

There will be some upcoming new capacities expected in Q3 as shown in table 2 that may bring about a more balanced supply to meet the demand

The US plant acquired by Far Eastern is estimated to restart in June-July which should also ease the supply tightness

Even with the new capacities and plant restarts market participants think it is unlikely that PET market will return to the oversupply situation seen in the previous years

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian PET markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 25Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 2

Our English-language report coverage includes

Styrene MEG Propylene

BTX Methanol Base Oil

BPA PE MTBE

Phenol PP Mixed AromaticsAcetone Oxo-Alcohol

Trusted industryintelligence for Chinarsquoscommodity marketsDevelopments in Chinarsquos petrochemicals industrycontinue to affect the global marketplace It istherefore vital for domestic and internationalmarket players to keep track of changes withinthe country to know where opportunities lie

ICIS has long been recognised as a reliablesource of information our locally-based expertscompile reports and analyses in English tosupport industry participants dealing with Chinamarkets or seeking to trade or invest

Pricing informationOur pricing data provide key insights into pricetrends in China to support your short-termdecision-making negotiations and analyses

bull Import and export spot and contract pricesbull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity

and upstreamdownstream marketsbull Data on inventory levels and price marginsbull Plant and production news

Petrochemicals Analytics SolutionsProviding our customers with a 360-degree view of the Chinese market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker - real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for thenext 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics - key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock anddo wnstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlooks

Available for key chemical commodities

wwwiciscomchina

Discover how we can meet your market information needs

enquiryiciscom

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESMONOETHYLENE GLYCOL (MEG)

ASIA MEG TO SEE DEMAND TAPERING LOWER SUPPLY IN EARLY H2By Eric Su

The Asian monoethylene glycol (MEG) market could see demand slowing down from the end of June while supply will be reduced from a number of plant turnarounds

Inventories are expected to decline in June after offtake rates at Chinese main ports rose sharply in the last two weeks of May because of an uptick in demand from downstream polyester buyers

Demand for MEG is also expected to remain strong in the first half of June boosted by high polyester production rates of above 85 and modestly low inventory levels

A slowdown in demand may take place in the second half of June as the traditional manufacturing peak period nears its end in July

Meanwhile supply conditions could tighten because of the plant turnarounds in northeast Asia

However supply from the Middle East will likely resume to normal levels given that there were no further delay in shipments in May

MEG prices in Asia have registered year-on-year growth rates in the months to June this year

MEG prices have mostly hovered above $900tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China Main Port (CMP) while prices were mostly below $900tonne CFR CMP in 2017

Prices have been volatile in 2018 with major price swings seen on a near monthly basis since February

MEG prices in first quarter of 2018 continued the uptrend seen in the fourth quarter of 2017 rising to $1030tonne CFR CMP in early March from $922tonne CFR

CMP in late December as the higher-than-expected growth in downstream polyester fuelled bullish market sentiment

Polyester growth in 2017 was estimated at above 10 beating an originally bearish expectation of 2-3

A price downtrend was observed in March with the MEG weekly average price losing nearly 10 of its value to $929tonne CFR CMP by end-March

The price decline coincided with a sharp influx of imported cargoes which was likely a result of over-procurement in January

Back to Quick Navigation | 26Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

and February when prices were trending upwards

March 2018 import volumes rose to nearly 1m tonnes a record three-year high according to official China customs data

MEG prices rebounded in April rising by around 9 from end-March to $1014tonne CFR CMP by end-April ahead of the traditional peak period for the downstream polyester sector The average polyester production rate rose to above 85 during the period

MEG also achieved its to-date weekly peak of $1042tonne CFR CMP in the week ending 20 April

Supply tightness was also observed in the Chinese domestic market because of shipment delays from the Middle East and logistical issues at China main ports over the same period

The lack of availability of prompt cargoes also led to an atypical price spread between April and May delivery parcels

Normally the spread between arrived-at-port and far-term arrival cargoes is at $0-10tonne CFR CMP but this widened to $20-30tonne CFR CMP This drove concerns of sharp price adjustments in May once April deliveries were fulfilled

These concerns came true as MEG prices

began to slide in May MEG weekly prices stood at $928tonne CFR CMP in the last week of May falling from $1003tonne CFR CMP in early May

High inventory levels have also weighed on MEG prices Inventory levels were above 900000 tonnes from early May onward rising to 938000 tonnes by in late March Most market participants deemed inventory levels above 900000 tonnes to be high

The increase in inventory levels in May were largely attributed to the arrival of Middle East shipments which were previously due for arrival in April

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian MEG markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 27Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSETHYLENE

NE ASIA ETHYLENE H2 OUTLOOK HINGES ON NEW SUPPLY SM PLANTBy Yeow Pei Lin

Northeast (NE) Asiarsquos ethylene (C2) second-half 2018 outlook is uncertain as several crackers are scheduled for maintenance but such production losses could be offset by the start up of a new plant and cargoes from outside the region

More than 20 crackers in Asia are slated to undergo maintenance in 2018 with the estimated capacity losses totalling more than 185m tonnes Most of the turnarounds in the first half of the year were concentrated in Japan ndash a key exporter to China

However several more companies are to carry out turnarounds in June and the rest of the year

The impact on the regional balance will depend on the start-up progress of a new facility in South Korea and on whether the strong exports from southeast Asia and Europe in the first half of 2018 will continue

Shipments from Yeosu South Korea will start to slow down in August ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at complexes in that region

Exports will recover by December when Lotte Chemical brings on-stream an added capacity of 200000 tonnesyear at its Yeosu cracker

The facility will undergo an expansion during a turnaround from late September to October

Shipments from Ulsan another petrochemical cluster in South Korea will grow in the second half of 2018

Newcomer S-Oil is expected to begin commercial operations at its residue upgrading complex (RUC) in Onsan in the second half of June

The companyrsquos entire ethylene output of up

to around 200000 tonnesyear is intended for the merchant market as it does not have any downstream plants

Exports from southeast Asian producers will continue to be driven by the higher value from ethylene sales in the ethylene versus polyethylene (PE) trade-off

There will however be supply constraints

Four crackers in the region will undergo

maintenance and the affected producers include ExxonMobil and PTT Global Chemicals (PTTGC) that were regular exporters in the first half of 2018

Exports from Europe will likely be influenced by the performance of the PE sector

The outlook for the PE market in Europe is uncertain given the growing prospect of competitively-priced exports from the new US plants

Back to Quick Navigation | 28Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Ethylene costs in the US have been at low levels since early 2018 as production growth outpaces that for consumption

Since late 2017 about 3m tonnesyear of new ethylene capacity and about 35m tonnesyear of new PE capacity have started up in the US

The new crackers have been running well but several of the new PE plants struggled to reach full operating rates

Exports from Saudi Arabia are expected to be constrained by increased domestic consumption

Petro Rabigh announced in April that the last few plants in its Phase 2 project including a 75000 tonneyear ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) unit have started up

The companyrsquos ethylene exports could fall further in the second half of 2018 following the completion of its PE plant maintenance shutdowns earlier in the year

Chinarsquos import demand is poised for further growth when a new 260000 tonneyear styrene monomer (SM) plant starts up in the third quarter as planned

Anhui Haoyuan Chemical will be operating the unit in Fuyang Anhui on a standalone basis as its plans to build a methanol-to-olefin (MTO) plant have been put on hold amid high methanol prices

The plant will require around 78000 tonnes of ethylene annually to operate at maximum capacity

Based on the above factors it was not immediately clear if the ethylene prices in the second half will follow the volatile trend they displayed in the first five months of 2018

NE Asia spot ethylene prices were volatile from January to May as the impact of a heavy regional cracker turnaround schedule and strong Chinese demand was at times outweighed by strong exports from southeast Asia the Middle East and Europe

The market started the year at above a two and a half year high of $1415tonne CFR (cost amp freight) NE Asia in early January

Subsequent transacted prices fluctuated within a low $1200stonne to mid $1300stonne CFR NE Asia band in the five months ended 31 May

Prices in the first quarter were initially weighed down by ample supply from producers in the Middle East and Asia due to a series of PE plant shutdowns - both planned and unplanned

That was despite strong pre-Lunar New Year holiday restocking activities in China

Demand was bolstered by the start up of a 500000 tonneyear non-integrated SM plant and generally healthy downstream margins for producers outside the PE sector

End-users were also keen to build up their inventories because of the slow progress in their 2018 term contract discussions ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at facilities of key exporters in the region

In addition a major ethylene oxide (EO) maker was seeking more import cargoes following a disruption in supply from its upstream MTO unit The plant was shut twice between late November and the first half of February because of high feedstock methanol costs

The market recovered in early March in line with the start of the annual cracker turnaround season in northeast Asia where

scheduled capacity losses in 2018 will be overall higher than the previous year

That explained why the countryrsquos exports from January to April slumped by 14 year-on-year to 201274 tonnes

In late April northeast Asiarsquos spot prices fell again after a surprisingly large quantity of deep-sea spot cargoes were sold into Asia for delivery between the middle of May and the first half of June

There were at least 55000-60000 tonnes of cargoes from Europe in addition to 11000 tonnes of US supply for that delivery period Europe was in a long position because of derivative maintenance shutdowns and production problems

Continued strong exports from southeast Asia owing to downstream production issues and the weak performance of the linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) market contributed to the downbeat sentiment

The ample supply outweighed Chinarsquos robust import demand

Buying interest in China was strong for April and May arrival cargoes on the back

Back to Quick Navigation | 29Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

of healthy downstream margins for certain downstream markets such as SM EO and monoethylene glycol (MEG)

Ethylene buyers in China were also keen to book deep-sea cargoes to offset the expected regional production losses from cracker turnarounds

Prices rebounded quickly in mid-May

aided by a bullish SM market and reduced domestic supply

Some MTO operators lowered production in May as high feedstock methanol costs led to squeezed margins while a key producer in east China lowered its cracker run rates unexpectedly

Sharp increases in feedstock naphtha costs

which tracked gains on crude oil futures also helped set a floor to the earlier price declines

By early June spot ethylene prices had touched a 20-week high raising questions on whether the market will see similar price volatility in the second half of 2018

Producers will turn hawkish if the outlook for crude and naphtha markets remains upbeat

Back to Quick Navigation | 30Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSPROPYLENE

TIGHT NE ASIA PROPYLENE SUPPLY TO LIMIT H2 PRICE FLUCTUATIONSBy Joson Ng

Tight propylene (C3) supply in northeast Asia amid a heavy turnaround schedule in 2018 will continue supporting regional prices of the material into the second half

Sellers are likely to continue passing on firmer costs to buyers which are wary of October when heavy propylene production losses are expected

Buyersrsquo resistance in the key China market would keep any further increase in propylene prices in check with some downstream producers considering cutting output due to high feedstock costs

At the start of June propylene prices have weakened ending the strong general uptrend since end-March amid weakness in Chinarsquos domestic market as demand softened due to turnarounds at downstream polypropylene (PP) plants

However the downward pressure on regional prices may be temporary as overall supply in Asia is expected to be tight

In early June spot propylene prices in northeast Asia were about 9 higher from the start of 2018 according to ICIS data

The year started on a bullish note fuelled by a heavier cracker turnaround schedule compared with 2017 and higher premium levels concluded for contract cargoes

The uptrend was sustained into February due to restocking activities in various import markets in northeast Asia before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February

Before the holidays some South Korean producers were convinced the market will experience supply shortage as both GS Caltexrsquos fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity and Yeochun NCCrsquos (YNCC) cracker ndash which can produce 280000 tonnesyear of propylene ndash were due for maintenance in February through to April

But propylene prices surprisingly weakened from 9 February to end-March without demand support from Chinarsquos weak PP market which struggled through sluggish sales and high inventory after the countryrsquos week-long Lunar New Year holiday

A renewed wave of scheduled turnarounds at regional plants tightened supply and drove up propylene prices in April and May

In Taiwan Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) took its residue fluid catalytic

Back to Quick Navigation | 31Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

cracking (RFCC) unit with a 350000 tonneyear propylene capacity off stream from 1 March to mid-April while CPC Corp shut its 100000 tonneyear FCC unit on 10 April and restarted in early June

In South Korea GS Caltex also had a turnaround at its FCC unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity from 19 February to 5 April

SK Advanced shut its propane dehydrogenated (PDH) unit with 600000 tonneyear propylene capacity on 21 April to early May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian propylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 32Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

To talk to someone about price forecast reports call the numbers below or email us at salesukiciscomAsia-Pacific Europe Africa and Middle East The AmericasTel +65 6789 8828 Tel +44 20 8652 3335 Tel +1 713 525 2600 or Toll free +1 888 525 3255 (US and Canada only)

ICIS price forecast reportsSupply demand and price trends at a glance

ICIS price forecast reports provide a clear view of prices and supply and demand trends for the next 12 months Packed with vital information the report includes everything you need to assess where the market is heading and the impact or opportunity that presents for your business

To find out more or take a trial visit wwwiciscompriceforecast

Price Forecast Window

ICIS price forecasts are now available on the Dashboard channel using the Price Forecast Window which will enable users to

n Chart the price forecast against the last (rolling) twelve months of related price history

n Plot the last 12 months to view forecast progression and ICIS forecast accuracy

n Convert data into different currencies and units and download this data into Excel in order to easily enter into your own calculations

How price forecast reports can help youn Understand the marketUse ICIS price forecast reports to understand where the market is heading and identify the risks and the opportunities for your business What are the major demand developments for your product n Safeguard commercial decisionsUse market information to make better-informed business decisions relating to supply and demand Learn about changes in market capacities What factors will affect supply for you n Budgeting and planningWhether you are planning how much you will be spending in the short-to medium or even long term use the price forecast reports to help assess future prices for your product What will the price of your product be in six monthsrsquo time

Price forecast reports currently

available

Available as price forecast windows only

Polypropylene

Polyethylene

Benzene

StyrenePolystyrene

Methanol

Ethylene

Propylene

Styrene

Asia Europe US Global

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

OLEFINSBUTADIENE

ASIA BD TO FLUCTUATE IN H2 AS SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE SHIFTSBy Helen Yan

Asiarsquos butadiene (BD) spot prices for July shipments are likely to face downward pressure but any price downtrend is likely to reverse when cracker turnarounds start to kick in from September onwards

BD prices are expected to be weighed down before seeing support again in the third quarter as the supply and demand balance shifts during this period

The fourth quarter will likely see support for BD prices although the increases may be tempered by resistance from the downstream synthetic rubber (SR) makers to any significant price hikes

The busy cracker turnaround season in September-November will likely see supply tightening at the same time that demand is expected to pick up during this period

Several crackers and BD units including South Korearsquos Lotte Chemical LG Chem and Chinarsquos Shanghai Secco and Maoming Petrochemical are scheduled to shut during

the September to November time frame

In the near term BD spot prices are likely to continue to trend lower as demand wanes while supply at the same time is expected to lengthen due to an influx of deep-sea cargoes and regional cracker restarts

More than 15000 tonnes of deep-sea cargoes from EU are expected to arrive in Asia in June and July at the same time that crackers in Asia including Indiarsquos Haldia Petrochemical and Indonesiarsquos Chandra Asri resume their production following their maintenance shutdowns

On 8 June spot prices fell to $1725tonne CFR (cost amp freight) northeast (NE) Asia the second consecutive week of decline after spiralling upwards in the two months since early April

BD spot prices had increased by more than 40 since early April peaking at $1800tonne CFR NE Asia on 25 May

Strong demand from derivative acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) makers which were running their plants at optimal rates had bolstered the BD price upsurge during this period

However derivative styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) and polybutadiene rubber (PBR) producers the key consumers of BD cut their production output given the continued erosion in margins

Several major SBR and PBR producers said their margins had fallen into negative territory and retreated from the BD spot market in June

Chinese spot appetite in particular tapered off as domestic BD prices were lower compared with the US dollar-denominated import prices

In China Hangzhou Zhechen Jilin Petrochemical Zhejiang Transfar and Shen Hua Chemical were some of the SBR and PBR plants that are shut for maintenance in June and July

Several SBR and PBR plants in Taiwan and South Korea were also running at lower rates following the 40 BD price spike in the two months from early April to end-May

In South Korea major SR producer Korea Kumho Petrochemical PC was running its SBR and PBR plants at reduced rates

Back to Quick Navigation | 33Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian butadiene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 34Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Similarly Taiwanrsquos TSRC also cut the production output of its SBR and PBR plants

The outlook for the fourth quarter is expected to see a different turn of events with SBR and PBR plants resuming their production and ramping up their operating rates while supply during the last quarter is expected to tighten from the heavy cracker turnaround season

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYETHYLENE (PE)

SOUTHEAST ASIA PE MARKET FACES LONGER H2 SUPPLY WEAK DEMANDBy Felita Widjaja

Southeast Asiarsquos polyethylene (PE) market may be facing longer supply in the second half hinging on how the US-China trade spat plays out amid the regionrsquos weakening demand for imports

Global PE trade flows will be affected should China the biggest importer of spot PE cargoes in the world decide to impose retaliatory 25 tariff on US cargoes

Southeast Asia as an alternative buying region might be hard pressed to absorb additional supply from the US where massive PE capacities recently started up which were meant to cater to huge Chinese demand

Around 5m tonnes of additional US PE capacities are expected from several major projects including those in the pipeline to start up within the second half of 2018

China primarily imports PE cargoes from Asia and the Middle East while the US is its sixth leading PE supplier in 2017

ldquoEventually more substantial and regular volume of US [PE] cargoes are expected to be traded in Asia in the second half of the year as we have yet to see them in the first half of this yearrdquo said a regional trader

Any changes in trade flows would pose challenges to US suppliers in the short term as they would need to revamp their logistics and distribution channels to redirect cargoes to other markets

Suppliers from the Middle East meanwhile might take the opportunity to supply more cargoes to China and would mean fewer volumes available to the southeast Asian market

The Middle East is southeast Asiarsquos major PE supplier

Demand for PE imports in southeast Asia has been weak amid lower prices in

Back to Quick Navigation | 35Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

the domestic markets as in the case of Thailand

ldquoThai traders are not keen to import as local prices are more competitive so they do not have the margin to sell the imported cargoes in local market Only some converters who need specific cargoes continue to importrdquo said a local Thai trader

Malaysia and Indonesia with predominantly Muslim populations have seen market activity slow down since mid-May when the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan started Ramadan ends with the Eid ul-Fitr holiday on 15 June

The Indonesian government has declared a longer Eid-ul Fitr holiday this year from 11-20 June

Markets in Singapore and the Philippines will be closed for the mid-June holiday as well

With supply expected to become long some market players expect regional PE prices in July and August to ease from

June with restocking activities expected to kick in towards the end of the third quarter

In the first half of 2018 southeast Asiarsquos average prices for commodity PE were largely stable to firm owing to suppliersrsquo relatively comfortable-to-tight supply for most of the period

At the start of June high density polyethylene (HDPE) film grade prices averaged $1395tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia while linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) film were at $1210tonne CFR SE Asia and $1265tonne CFR SE Asia respectively according to ICIS data

Prices had spiked in the first quarter as suppliers were holding comfortable-to-tight inventory as several regional producers have scheduled turnarounds at their plants in March Production issues and shutdowns in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia also limited availability of imports to southeast Asia during this period

Supply for HDPE film was particularly tight as some producers from the Middle East as well as Asia switched their focus into making HDPE pipe grade amid robust demand and better netbacks

The price uptrend across most PE grades could not be sustained in the second quarter although prices remained relatively stable-to-firm

The depreciation of local currencies in southeast Asia against the US dollar in most of the second quarter was also curbing overall demand for imports A weaker currency makes US dollar-denominated imports expensive

ldquoIndonesian buyers have not been buying much cargoes as the market slowed down during Ramadan and also because of weak rupiah which led the central bank to increase interest rate to limit the depreciationrdquo said a regional producer

CHINA PE IMPORTS TO STAY STRONG AMID DOMESTIC PLANT TURNAROUNDS By Angie Li

Chinarsquos polyethylene (PE) imports are expected to remain strong for the rest of the year after posting record volumes in January to April 2018 amid scheduled turnarounds at domestic facilities

Buyers in China have been accumulating imported PE cargoes as these were priced lower compared futures prices since the start of the year

More cargoes will be available to China as new capacities in the US are expected to boost production

For the month of May the countryrsquos PE imports are projected to reach 12m tonnes higher than the monthly average in the first four months of 2018

In January to April 2018 its PE imports volumes totaled 447m tonnes up by 12 from the previous corresponding period according to industry sources

The import volumes were making up for the production losses in the domestic market due to scheduled turnarounds

On 1 June low density PE (LDPE) imports were assessed at $1155-1180tonne linear low density PE (LLDPE) stood at $1150-1170tonne while high density PE (HDPE) film products were at $1340-1400tonne according to ICIS data

The prices have increased 15-62 from end-March but the gains came in lower than market playersrsquo expectations considering the heavy production loss due to turnarounds from April

Back to Quick Navigation | 36Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

An estimated 500000 tonnes are expected to be shaved in the second quarter due to scheduled maintenance at domestic facilities according ICIS data

ldquoWe thought the hefty plant turnarounds in the second quarter should lead to a surge in PE prices but the LDPE and LLDPE prices were less than satisfactory although HDPE prices [were] highrdquo said an east China-based trader referring to both the import and domestic PE prices

Strong imports amid hedging activities bloated the total supply in China in January to April to 998m tonnes up by 8 from the previous corresponding period with supply of LDPE and LLDPE up by 14 and 8 respectively market sources said

Imports of HDPE inched up by 2 over the same period given the gradersquos comparatively higher prices compared with LLDPE and LDPE

Increased availability due to recent capacity expansions and start-ups in Asia the Middle East also fuels Chinarsquos appetite for import cargoes

In the first quarter of 2018 additional cargoes from Saudi Arabia were mostly from Sadara Chemical which started up its 750000 tonneyear swing plant and 350000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Al Jubail during late 2016 and early 2017 respectively

Cargoes of Iran origin augmented the total volume from the UAE as market players try to go around the financial sanctions on Tehran Kordestan Petrochemicalrsquos 300000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Iran came on stream in March 2017

UAErsquos Borouge has also ramped up pipe and HDPE film exports to China during the period according to a supplier in the Middle East

Meanwhile PE imports from Singapore surged 38 year on year while those from India more than doubled to 127000 tonnes according to China Customs data

The ban on waste plastics implemented in China in the year also bolstered imports of virgin PE Some waste plastics processed overseas and then re-entered the market as virgin products but these volumes were limited

Last year China has imported 194m tonnes of PE waste plastics while

volumes in 2018 will be negligible with the implemention of the ban

Chinarsquos PE production this year is expected to increase by around 7 to about 17m tonnes in 2018 with imports projected to grow by 102 to around 13m tonnes according to a source from state-owned petrochemical giant PetroChina

Domestic demand for PE on the other hand is forecast to grow by 8 this year mainly from the packaging and pipe markets

Chinarsquos ongoing campaign to switch to using gas for power generation instead of coal is expected to continue boosting demand for PE gas pipes this year

The packaging industry will also drive up PE consumption underpinned by growth in electronic commerce Chinarsquos express delivery volumes reached 137bn packages during January-April 2018 based on data from the recent China Express Industry Development Conference in May

Back to Quick Navigation | 37Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 38Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

By Jonathan Lopez

ICIS NewsThe leading news service for real-time ground breaking news and analysis on the global petrochemicals markets

The ICIS News services give you unrivalled access to the most in-depth stories impacting the petrochemicals markets influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions

Our team of global editors are reporting around the clock to bring you the latest news and analysis so that you get the full picture of market and pricing developments first providing you with invaluable foresight to take advantage of every opportunity and to stay ahead of your competitors

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Breaking news on the chemical markets that will impact your business

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PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYPROPYLENE (PP)

SE ASIA PP PRICES MAY COME UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 AS SUPPLY LENGTHENSBy Leanne Tan

Southeast Asiarsquos polypropylene (PP) market may come under pressure in the second half of the year on account of lengthening regional supply and weak downstream demand

Spot prices have been on the rise for most of May buoyed by bullish sentiment in the Chinese market and firm upstream feedstock costs

Margins for PP makers have been lower on average compared with levels in the previous year

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refinery amp Petrochemicals is scheduled to start up its 400000 tonneyear PP production unit in the third quarter The project was initially scheduled to start up in the first quarter of 2018

While domestic demand will continue to outstrip local production the countryrsquos reliance on imports may be diminished when the new plant starts up

Converters in the country have been opting to keep inventories lean in the short term amid expectations that prices may eventually weaken when more domestic supply becomes available

ldquoBuyers donrsquot want to buy too much import cargoes now not just because prices are high but also because there will be more locally-produced materials very soonrdquo a Vietnamese trader said

In Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan is expected to start commercial production at its expanded PP facility in Pasir Gudang in June or July The plantrsquos capacity will be raised by 200000 tonnesyear from 400000 tonnesyear

Import availabilities from South Korea are expected to lengthen in the medium-to-long term with S-Oil expected to complete an olefin downstream complex (ODC) at its Onsan refinery in Ulsan which will include a

405000 tonneyear PP capacity

On the demand front weakness is likely to persist in the second half with converters and end-users likely to continue buying spot cargoes on a hand-to-mouth basis

Indonesiarsquos demand in particular has been below expectations since the start of 2018 and this is likely to continue in the second half of the year according to market players

Back to Quick Navigation | 39Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Some players said import demand for dutiable cargoes may increase in the second half of the year as this is typically when the government issues duty exemption facilities

The duty exemption facilities are issued on a yearly basis which enable converters to import some PP volumes without extra cost

In Malaysia the removal of the 6 goods and services tax (GST) so far has had no immediate impact on the PP market although there are some expectations the move could potentially boost demand in the consumer market further down the road

In Vietnam demand for PP flat yarn has entered a seasonal lull from May to early July and will not pick up until August when the summer harvest begins

PP is widely used in the manufacture of woven sacks (for rice sacks) flexible packaging carpets household appliances and automotive parts

Spot PP prices in southeast Asia have been an uptrend for most of the first half

The PP market begun the year on a bullish note with spot prices surging by almost 10 over the course of two months all-origins PP flat yarn prices peaked at $1295tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia on 2 March

Healthy demand in China helped to provide support to spot prices in southeast Asia in the first quarter with a tight global spot supply leading to further price escalations

Some suppliers pulled back from the southeast Asian spot market to capitalise on better netbacks in other countries including Japan and Pakistan leading to further curtailed spot availability in southeast Asia

The market rally started to lose steam in early March amid subdued demand and a build-up of domestic inventories in China after the Lunar New Year holidays

The bearish sentiment soon spilled over into southeast Asia with Chinese suppliers pushing some volumes into southeast Asia amid an open arbitrage window

Vietnam remains the market of choice for Chinese exporters and PP import prices in the country plummeted as the result of the lengthened spot availability

However the bearish run was short-lived and prices soon bottomed out in early April

Bullish momentum in the upstream crude and naphtha markets propelled spot prices of polymers higher

Despite lacklustre downstream demand price hikes in April and May were commonplace as producers sought higher asking prices in view of narrower margins

TIGHT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT CHINA PP MARKET DESPITE WEAK DEMANDBy Dora Xue

Tight supply would buoy up Chinarsquos polypropylene (PP) prices in the near term despite weak downstream demand

The market is expecting heavy production losses following recent unexpected outages at five domestic facilities from May and scheduled turnarounds at other plants

In the week ended on 1 June domestic prices for PP flat yarn in east China were assessed at Chinese yuan (CNY) 9075tonne after a steady increase from early April according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos import prices for the same material stood at $1245tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China largely tracking movement in the domestic market over the past two months according to ICIS data

The strong PP prices have also started to deter buyers from purchasing more spot cargoes

ldquoPP prices are too high We donrsquot want to store too much in our warehouserdquo a buyer said

Downstream demand typically goes on a lull in June and July but any downward pressure on prices will be negated by a further tightening of supply as major plants will be taken off line for maintenance

ldquoWhen the maintenance season finishes in late June [PP] prices may start to go downrdquo a trader said

Demand is considered weakest at Qingdao in the eastern Shandong province due to government-mandated production cuts and logistics restrictions ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (SCO Summit) on 9-10 June

As of 1 June the combined polyolefin inventories of Chinese petrochemical majors Sinopec and PetroChina have declined back to normal levels of 700000 tonnes from a high of 1m tonnes in early March market sources said

Import supply to China may not improve in the short term as suppliers still deem other

Back to Quick Navigation | 40Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

Back to Quick Navigation | 43Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 22: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

BASE OILSBASE OILS

ASIA MIDEAST BASE OILS FIRM IN H1 BUT SOME PULLBACK LIKELY IN H2By Jasmine Khoo amp Izham Ahmad

Asia base oils Group I SN150 and Group II 150N prices are expected to remain firm on persistently low supply whereas the heavy grades - Group I SN500 and Group II 500600N - could come under pressure on ample availability

Into the second half of the year base oils supply from Iran are expected to be stable with no known maintenance plans due over the following few months from June and that could add further pressure on prices amid the weak demand outlook

Only one Iranian refiner is due for a maintenance shutdown in the second half of the year possibly sometime in September according to market sources

In Group II like in Asia short supply of 150N and 500600N is expected to support prices in coming months but the Group II segment in the Middle East is a much smaller market for producers

Major Group II and III producers in Saudi Arabia Qatar Bahrain and UAE also continue to focus on their traditional markets outside of the Middle East due to stronger demand and higher margins

Brightstock remained largely stable for June in terms of pricing following deals done at parity with Mayrsquos levels but market players maintained a cautious stance towards brightstock pricing which would typically see downward pressure towards the end of the year

The winter season in parts of Asia would typically herald a period of slow cargo uptake for brightstock as transportation logistics get more challenging

As for Group III base oils northeast Asian-origin lots are expected to see support in spot prices from June as seen from healthy uptake among buyers amid short supply from regional suppliers

Similarly in the Middle East market Group I prices started the year on a firm note

Around mid-February SN500 prices traded up to $80750tonne FOB (free on board) Iran their highest levels since ICIS began tracking the data in November 2015

SN150 also traded their record highs about the same time hitting $72750tonne FOB Iran

These record highs were held until early May despite buyers at the time showing increasing resistance to the higher levels and the uncertainty that took hold of the market ahead of a deadline for the US to decide on whether it would remain in the Iran nuclear deal

On 8 May US president Donald Trump announced that the US will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal and re-impose sanctions on Tehran consequently driving up crude prices to new highs since late 2014

Iranrsquos base oils prices were largely stable in that week but market outlook has been clouded with uncertainties following the USrsquo decision to re-impose sanctions on the country

Group I SN500 prices were stable through the early half of May at $780-805tonne FOB Iran while Group I SN150 were holding at $710-745tonne FOB Iran since early-February according to ICIS data

Prices began to decline around mid-May when it became more apparent that the increased sanctions would cause at least some disruptions to business dealings with Iranian entities

Market players said they encountered difficulties in financial transactions with Iran and many financial institutions were reluctant to take on any dealings involving Iran-based businesses for fear of conflicting with the US sanctions

On the supply side market players in the UAE said there were sufficient cargoes built up over recent months and as such

there was less demand for further spot deals in Group I particularly with the threat of renewed sanctions

Mid-May also marked the start of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan which is a typically slow season for the Middle East

Certain manufacturing activities are reduced as factories observed shorter operating hours and as many workers took some vacation time as well

The Eid ul-Fitr long holidays followed the end of Ramadan in mid-June

Asiarsquos base oils market trends for certain widely-traded Group I grades snapped out of persistent uptrend in late April against a backdrop of increasingly squeezed buyersrsquo margins and waning demand

Steady gains in FOB Asia spot prices were recorded since September 2017 on the back of regional shortages as demand surpassed output

This was partly fuelled by natural disasters in the US when Hurricane Harvey disrupted between 20 and 25 of the countryrsquos refining capacity in August

The disruption to base oils production at some units led to increased appetite for deep-sea shipments from Asia to the US

In the current market SN500 prices registered the greatest drops among the ICIS assessed grades shedding slightly more than 12 of its spot pricing between 13 April and 25 May ICIS data showed

Market participants attributed the price dip to lackluster demand brought about by a supply overhang of domestically-produced SN400 in the local Chinese market

Competitive pricing of SN400 amid ample availability curtailed import appetite among China-based buyers for SN500 of Asian origin especially since some buyers were still holding on to sufficient stocks for the near term

Back to Quick Navigation | 20Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Brightstock prices also softened reflecting increasingly squeezed buyersrsquo margins following steep gains seen from 22 September 2017 to 23 March 2018 in FOB Asia export prices

Some buyers were also sitting on sufficient inventories from active procurement earlier in the year leading to waned demand

This led refiners and traders to cut offers to encourage cargo uptake for May shipment cargoes

Group II 150N and 500600N prices largely held up on the back of potential supply woes in the summer season amid scheduled shutdowns at major Asian refineries

Taiwanrsquos Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) is expected to conduct planned maintenance in July market sources said

This led market players to hold on to expectations of buoyed spot prices for Group II base oils in the near term though significant increase is not expected for certain grades such as 500600N amid ample spot availability in the region

Group III 4 and 6cst base oils largely continued their steady price uptrend reflecting short supply among key South Korean Group III suppliers

8cst base oils of northeast Asian origin amid comparatively greater availability than its lighter counterparts saw less gains in prices since the beginning of 2018

South Korean-origin Group III base oils prices were mostly buoyant despite an influx of Middle East-origin Group III base oils into the northeast Asian market since November 2017 as South Korean-origin Group III users adhered largely to using the same material due to formulation restrictions and related OEM approvals

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian base oils markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 21Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPURIFIED TEREPHTHALIC ACID (PTA)

ASIA PTA SUPPLY TO LENGTHEN IN H2 ON INDIA CHINA PLANT START-UPSBy Samuel Wong

Supply of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in Asia is expected to lengthen in the second half of 2018 as new capacities will start up in the major markets of India and China amid a slowdown in demand

Major plants would have resumed production after unplanned outages to ease the current global supply tightness that has been driving up Asian prices while demand typically weakens in the third quarter

Asian PTA prices may start to come under pressure as fresh supply will hit the markets when new major regional plants start production in the third quarter

ldquoMarket sentiment is currently pessimistic about the outlook however this can quickly change if we see a sudden uptick in downstream demandrdquo a China-based producer said

In India JBF Grouprsquos 125m tonneyear PTA unit in Mangalore is expected to start up in the third quarter although the schedule is still fluid according to several market participants

In China Fuhaichuang Petrochemical formerly known as Dragon Aromatics (Zhangzhou) is planning to resume operations at its complex in the third quarter of 2018 after a prolonged shutdown

Its petrochemical complex in Zhangzhou has a 45m tonneyear PTA plant comprisings three 15m tonneyear lines two of which have been in operation since end-2017 The company is likely to restart the third line once smooth operations at its upstream paraxylene (PX) unit at the site is achieved market players said

In Europe Indorama Ventures Portugal plans to start up in July an idled 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Sines Thailand-based Indorama Ventures Ltd acquired the

plant from Portuguese Artlant PTA in late 2017

All these factors should see the narrowing of the price gap between Chinarsquos import and domestic markets as early as July after widening steadily from March to May

As of 12 June the gap stood at $96tonne down from the peak of about $111tonne on 30 May

Asiarsquos PTA prices are currently steady at firm levels Regional end-users preferred to procure cargoes on a need-to basis and were not keen on building inventories

Future movement will depend on market conditions in the downstream polyester industry

The wide price gap in Chinarsquos import and domestic markets has been deterring Chinese buyers from tapping the international spot market for supplies since March while demand was healthy especially in the downstream polyethylene terephthalate (PET) markets

Tight global supply in the first half saw Asian producers shipping out cargoes to the Middle East as well as Europe which was hit by unplanned outages in Belgium and Poland in April

Back to Quick Navigation | 22Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

In Europe BP Chemical on 15 April declared a force majeure at its Belgium PTA unit and a second force majeure on 17 May PKN Orlen on 23 April declared a force majeure at its Wloclawek PTA unit in Poland which was subsequently lifted on 2 May with spot cargoes from the plant limited until after a planned maintenance in SeptemberOctober 2018

Within Asia the southeastern region has had PTA plant outages and had to procure cargoes from the northeast in the preceding two months

Regional supply tightened further with the unexpected shutdown of Hanwha General Chemicalrsquos 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Daesan prompting a force majeure declaration on 21 May

In the first half of 2018 strong growth in demand in the downstream polyester markets in Asia particularly China supported the rally in PTA prices amid tight supply

Downstream polyester markets were enjoying positive margins keeping demand for feedstock PTA healthy

In the key China market operating rates at polyester units were higher compared with the previous year

The countryrsquos PTA production losses in January-June 2018 on the other hand were estimated at around 134m tonnes due to planned and unplanned outages

Asiarsquos PTA producers were largely enjoying healthy margins on the back of steady demand growth in the downstream polyester markets Firmer upstream energy

and feedstock PX prices have also buoyed PTA prices

In January to May 2018 Brent crude traded at $6692-7616bbl up by about 25 year

on year while PX prices were at $938-994tonne representing a 15 increase over the same period

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian purified terephthalic acid (PTA)) markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 23Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPOLYETHYLENE TEREPHTHALATE (PET)

ASIA PET TO REMAIN FIRM IN Q3 AS TIGHT SUPPLY SUPPORT PRICESBy Hazel Goh

Asian polyethylene terephthalate (PET) market is likely to remain firm in the third quarter on the back of tight supply a trend that has supported prices so far in 2018

Recently PET tight supply is a result of production cuts in Asia and Europe that have not had a clear estimated date of resuming normal operations

China Resources Packaging had cut production at its PET lines in Changzhou by 50 following notice from the government to reduce pollution in end-May It is not known for how long the production cuts will remain in place

In Europe there had been feedstock purified terephthalic acid (PTA) supply tightness leading to recent PET production cuts and force majeure by Novapet and JBF respectively

Many buyers had been purchasing on a need-to basis expecting that firm prices are unsustainable and will come down Subsequently they did not stock up cargoes ahead of the peak summer demand season for countries in the northern hemisphere

The reality turned out different and they had to accept higher prices as production cuts kept the supply tight

PET used to track feedstock price movements closely as it had been an oversupplied market and producers typically operate on thin margins

The oversupply situation changed and tightness was first felt in the third quarter of 2017 when plant closures by JBF RAK in the UAE and Belgium and by Mossi amp Ghisolfi (MampG) in the US Mexico and Brazil following financial tightness in the two PET-producing companies

Hurricane Harvey that hit the US in the third quarter led to further production cuts in the US

Back to Quick Navigation | 24Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 1

From then on supply remained tight as the plant under JBF RAK in the UAE and the former MampG plant in the US that had been acquired by Far Eastern remained shut for extended period of time even into 2018

Market players previously had concerns about where China will export its material when final anti-dumping duties (ADD) - heard to be at the same level as thepreliminary duties of 398-530 - wereimposed on its cargoes into Japan inJanuary

Japan was the top exporting destination for Chinese cargoes before the ADD following which the exports dropped drastically

While other producers such as Taiwanese southeast Asian Indian and South Korean producers sold more volumes into Japan Chinese makers sold to other markets that were relinquished by the other producers

Table 1 shows a significant difference between 2016 and 2017 in Chinarsquos export volumes to key destinations from the January-to-March period

Ranked by volume starting with largestvolume as 1

There is an ongoing anti-dumping duty (ADD) investigation by the US on PET cargoes from Brazil Pakistan Indonesia Taiwan and South Korea

The Commerce Department issued the preliminary dumping rates for Indonesia at 1316 South Korea at 881-10141 and Taiwan at 902-1189 in May Final determinations will be issued by 8 November

Even so some producers from the countries under investigation continued to receive buying enquiries from the US amid the current tight supply situation

There will be some upcoming new capacities expected in Q3 as shown in table 2 that may bring about a more balanced supply to meet the demand

The US plant acquired by Far Eastern is estimated to restart in June-July which should also ease the supply tightness

Even with the new capacities and plant restarts market participants think it is unlikely that PET market will return to the oversupply situation seen in the previous years

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PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian PET markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 25Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 2

Our English-language report coverage includes

Styrene MEG Propylene

BTX Methanol Base Oil

BPA PE MTBE

Phenol PP Mixed AromaticsAcetone Oxo-Alcohol

Trusted industryintelligence for Chinarsquoscommodity marketsDevelopments in Chinarsquos petrochemicals industrycontinue to affect the global marketplace It istherefore vital for domestic and internationalmarket players to keep track of changes withinthe country to know where opportunities lie

ICIS has long been recognised as a reliablesource of information our locally-based expertscompile reports and analyses in English tosupport industry participants dealing with Chinamarkets or seeking to trade or invest

Pricing informationOur pricing data provide key insights into pricetrends in China to support your short-termdecision-making negotiations and analyses

bull Import and export spot and contract pricesbull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity

and upstreamdownstream marketsbull Data on inventory levels and price marginsbull Plant and production news

Petrochemicals Analytics SolutionsProviding our customers with a 360-degree view of the Chinese market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker - real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for thenext 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics - key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock anddo wnstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlooks

Available for key chemical commodities

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Discover how we can meet your market information needs

enquiryiciscom

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESMONOETHYLENE GLYCOL (MEG)

ASIA MEG TO SEE DEMAND TAPERING LOWER SUPPLY IN EARLY H2By Eric Su

The Asian monoethylene glycol (MEG) market could see demand slowing down from the end of June while supply will be reduced from a number of plant turnarounds

Inventories are expected to decline in June after offtake rates at Chinese main ports rose sharply in the last two weeks of May because of an uptick in demand from downstream polyester buyers

Demand for MEG is also expected to remain strong in the first half of June boosted by high polyester production rates of above 85 and modestly low inventory levels

A slowdown in demand may take place in the second half of June as the traditional manufacturing peak period nears its end in July

Meanwhile supply conditions could tighten because of the plant turnarounds in northeast Asia

However supply from the Middle East will likely resume to normal levels given that there were no further delay in shipments in May

MEG prices in Asia have registered year-on-year growth rates in the months to June this year

MEG prices have mostly hovered above $900tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China Main Port (CMP) while prices were mostly below $900tonne CFR CMP in 2017

Prices have been volatile in 2018 with major price swings seen on a near monthly basis since February

MEG prices in first quarter of 2018 continued the uptrend seen in the fourth quarter of 2017 rising to $1030tonne CFR CMP in early March from $922tonne CFR

CMP in late December as the higher-than-expected growth in downstream polyester fuelled bullish market sentiment

Polyester growth in 2017 was estimated at above 10 beating an originally bearish expectation of 2-3

A price downtrend was observed in March with the MEG weekly average price losing nearly 10 of its value to $929tonne CFR CMP by end-March

The price decline coincided with a sharp influx of imported cargoes which was likely a result of over-procurement in January

Back to Quick Navigation | 26Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

and February when prices were trending upwards

March 2018 import volumes rose to nearly 1m tonnes a record three-year high according to official China customs data

MEG prices rebounded in April rising by around 9 from end-March to $1014tonne CFR CMP by end-April ahead of the traditional peak period for the downstream polyester sector The average polyester production rate rose to above 85 during the period

MEG also achieved its to-date weekly peak of $1042tonne CFR CMP in the week ending 20 April

Supply tightness was also observed in the Chinese domestic market because of shipment delays from the Middle East and logistical issues at China main ports over the same period

The lack of availability of prompt cargoes also led to an atypical price spread between April and May delivery parcels

Normally the spread between arrived-at-port and far-term arrival cargoes is at $0-10tonne CFR CMP but this widened to $20-30tonne CFR CMP This drove concerns of sharp price adjustments in May once April deliveries were fulfilled

These concerns came true as MEG prices

began to slide in May MEG weekly prices stood at $928tonne CFR CMP in the last week of May falling from $1003tonne CFR CMP in early May

High inventory levels have also weighed on MEG prices Inventory levels were above 900000 tonnes from early May onward rising to 938000 tonnes by in late March Most market participants deemed inventory levels above 900000 tonnes to be high

The increase in inventory levels in May were largely attributed to the arrival of Middle East shipments which were previously due for arrival in April

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian MEG markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 27Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSETHYLENE

NE ASIA ETHYLENE H2 OUTLOOK HINGES ON NEW SUPPLY SM PLANTBy Yeow Pei Lin

Northeast (NE) Asiarsquos ethylene (C2) second-half 2018 outlook is uncertain as several crackers are scheduled for maintenance but such production losses could be offset by the start up of a new plant and cargoes from outside the region

More than 20 crackers in Asia are slated to undergo maintenance in 2018 with the estimated capacity losses totalling more than 185m tonnes Most of the turnarounds in the first half of the year were concentrated in Japan ndash a key exporter to China

However several more companies are to carry out turnarounds in June and the rest of the year

The impact on the regional balance will depend on the start-up progress of a new facility in South Korea and on whether the strong exports from southeast Asia and Europe in the first half of 2018 will continue

Shipments from Yeosu South Korea will start to slow down in August ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at complexes in that region

Exports will recover by December when Lotte Chemical brings on-stream an added capacity of 200000 tonnesyear at its Yeosu cracker

The facility will undergo an expansion during a turnaround from late September to October

Shipments from Ulsan another petrochemical cluster in South Korea will grow in the second half of 2018

Newcomer S-Oil is expected to begin commercial operations at its residue upgrading complex (RUC) in Onsan in the second half of June

The companyrsquos entire ethylene output of up

to around 200000 tonnesyear is intended for the merchant market as it does not have any downstream plants

Exports from southeast Asian producers will continue to be driven by the higher value from ethylene sales in the ethylene versus polyethylene (PE) trade-off

There will however be supply constraints

Four crackers in the region will undergo

maintenance and the affected producers include ExxonMobil and PTT Global Chemicals (PTTGC) that were regular exporters in the first half of 2018

Exports from Europe will likely be influenced by the performance of the PE sector

The outlook for the PE market in Europe is uncertain given the growing prospect of competitively-priced exports from the new US plants

Back to Quick Navigation | 28Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Ethylene costs in the US have been at low levels since early 2018 as production growth outpaces that for consumption

Since late 2017 about 3m tonnesyear of new ethylene capacity and about 35m tonnesyear of new PE capacity have started up in the US

The new crackers have been running well but several of the new PE plants struggled to reach full operating rates

Exports from Saudi Arabia are expected to be constrained by increased domestic consumption

Petro Rabigh announced in April that the last few plants in its Phase 2 project including a 75000 tonneyear ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) unit have started up

The companyrsquos ethylene exports could fall further in the second half of 2018 following the completion of its PE plant maintenance shutdowns earlier in the year

Chinarsquos import demand is poised for further growth when a new 260000 tonneyear styrene monomer (SM) plant starts up in the third quarter as planned

Anhui Haoyuan Chemical will be operating the unit in Fuyang Anhui on a standalone basis as its plans to build a methanol-to-olefin (MTO) plant have been put on hold amid high methanol prices

The plant will require around 78000 tonnes of ethylene annually to operate at maximum capacity

Based on the above factors it was not immediately clear if the ethylene prices in the second half will follow the volatile trend they displayed in the first five months of 2018

NE Asia spot ethylene prices were volatile from January to May as the impact of a heavy regional cracker turnaround schedule and strong Chinese demand was at times outweighed by strong exports from southeast Asia the Middle East and Europe

The market started the year at above a two and a half year high of $1415tonne CFR (cost amp freight) NE Asia in early January

Subsequent transacted prices fluctuated within a low $1200stonne to mid $1300stonne CFR NE Asia band in the five months ended 31 May

Prices in the first quarter were initially weighed down by ample supply from producers in the Middle East and Asia due to a series of PE plant shutdowns - both planned and unplanned

That was despite strong pre-Lunar New Year holiday restocking activities in China

Demand was bolstered by the start up of a 500000 tonneyear non-integrated SM plant and generally healthy downstream margins for producers outside the PE sector

End-users were also keen to build up their inventories because of the slow progress in their 2018 term contract discussions ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at facilities of key exporters in the region

In addition a major ethylene oxide (EO) maker was seeking more import cargoes following a disruption in supply from its upstream MTO unit The plant was shut twice between late November and the first half of February because of high feedstock methanol costs

The market recovered in early March in line with the start of the annual cracker turnaround season in northeast Asia where

scheduled capacity losses in 2018 will be overall higher than the previous year

That explained why the countryrsquos exports from January to April slumped by 14 year-on-year to 201274 tonnes

In late April northeast Asiarsquos spot prices fell again after a surprisingly large quantity of deep-sea spot cargoes were sold into Asia for delivery between the middle of May and the first half of June

There were at least 55000-60000 tonnes of cargoes from Europe in addition to 11000 tonnes of US supply for that delivery period Europe was in a long position because of derivative maintenance shutdowns and production problems

Continued strong exports from southeast Asia owing to downstream production issues and the weak performance of the linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) market contributed to the downbeat sentiment

The ample supply outweighed Chinarsquos robust import demand

Buying interest in China was strong for April and May arrival cargoes on the back

Back to Quick Navigation | 29Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

of healthy downstream margins for certain downstream markets such as SM EO and monoethylene glycol (MEG)

Ethylene buyers in China were also keen to book deep-sea cargoes to offset the expected regional production losses from cracker turnarounds

Prices rebounded quickly in mid-May

aided by a bullish SM market and reduced domestic supply

Some MTO operators lowered production in May as high feedstock methanol costs led to squeezed margins while a key producer in east China lowered its cracker run rates unexpectedly

Sharp increases in feedstock naphtha costs

which tracked gains on crude oil futures also helped set a floor to the earlier price declines

By early June spot ethylene prices had touched a 20-week high raising questions on whether the market will see similar price volatility in the second half of 2018

Producers will turn hawkish if the outlook for crude and naphtha markets remains upbeat

Back to Quick Navigation | 30Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSPROPYLENE

TIGHT NE ASIA PROPYLENE SUPPLY TO LIMIT H2 PRICE FLUCTUATIONSBy Joson Ng

Tight propylene (C3) supply in northeast Asia amid a heavy turnaround schedule in 2018 will continue supporting regional prices of the material into the second half

Sellers are likely to continue passing on firmer costs to buyers which are wary of October when heavy propylene production losses are expected

Buyersrsquo resistance in the key China market would keep any further increase in propylene prices in check with some downstream producers considering cutting output due to high feedstock costs

At the start of June propylene prices have weakened ending the strong general uptrend since end-March amid weakness in Chinarsquos domestic market as demand softened due to turnarounds at downstream polypropylene (PP) plants

However the downward pressure on regional prices may be temporary as overall supply in Asia is expected to be tight

In early June spot propylene prices in northeast Asia were about 9 higher from the start of 2018 according to ICIS data

The year started on a bullish note fuelled by a heavier cracker turnaround schedule compared with 2017 and higher premium levels concluded for contract cargoes

The uptrend was sustained into February due to restocking activities in various import markets in northeast Asia before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February

Before the holidays some South Korean producers were convinced the market will experience supply shortage as both GS Caltexrsquos fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity and Yeochun NCCrsquos (YNCC) cracker ndash which can produce 280000 tonnesyear of propylene ndash were due for maintenance in February through to April

But propylene prices surprisingly weakened from 9 February to end-March without demand support from Chinarsquos weak PP market which struggled through sluggish sales and high inventory after the countryrsquos week-long Lunar New Year holiday

A renewed wave of scheduled turnarounds at regional plants tightened supply and drove up propylene prices in April and May

In Taiwan Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) took its residue fluid catalytic

Back to Quick Navigation | 31Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

cracking (RFCC) unit with a 350000 tonneyear propylene capacity off stream from 1 March to mid-April while CPC Corp shut its 100000 tonneyear FCC unit on 10 April and restarted in early June

In South Korea GS Caltex also had a turnaround at its FCC unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity from 19 February to 5 April

SK Advanced shut its propane dehydrogenated (PDH) unit with 600000 tonneyear propylene capacity on 21 April to early May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian propylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 32Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

To talk to someone about price forecast reports call the numbers below or email us at salesukiciscomAsia-Pacific Europe Africa and Middle East The AmericasTel +65 6789 8828 Tel +44 20 8652 3335 Tel +1 713 525 2600 or Toll free +1 888 525 3255 (US and Canada only)

ICIS price forecast reportsSupply demand and price trends at a glance

ICIS price forecast reports provide a clear view of prices and supply and demand trends for the next 12 months Packed with vital information the report includes everything you need to assess where the market is heading and the impact or opportunity that presents for your business

To find out more or take a trial visit wwwiciscompriceforecast

Price Forecast Window

ICIS price forecasts are now available on the Dashboard channel using the Price Forecast Window which will enable users to

n Chart the price forecast against the last (rolling) twelve months of related price history

n Plot the last 12 months to view forecast progression and ICIS forecast accuracy

n Convert data into different currencies and units and download this data into Excel in order to easily enter into your own calculations

How price forecast reports can help youn Understand the marketUse ICIS price forecast reports to understand where the market is heading and identify the risks and the opportunities for your business What are the major demand developments for your product n Safeguard commercial decisionsUse market information to make better-informed business decisions relating to supply and demand Learn about changes in market capacities What factors will affect supply for you n Budgeting and planningWhether you are planning how much you will be spending in the short-to medium or even long term use the price forecast reports to help assess future prices for your product What will the price of your product be in six monthsrsquo time

Price forecast reports currently

available

Available as price forecast windows only

Polypropylene

Polyethylene

Benzene

StyrenePolystyrene

Methanol

Ethylene

Propylene

Styrene

Asia Europe US Global

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

OLEFINSBUTADIENE

ASIA BD TO FLUCTUATE IN H2 AS SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE SHIFTSBy Helen Yan

Asiarsquos butadiene (BD) spot prices for July shipments are likely to face downward pressure but any price downtrend is likely to reverse when cracker turnarounds start to kick in from September onwards

BD prices are expected to be weighed down before seeing support again in the third quarter as the supply and demand balance shifts during this period

The fourth quarter will likely see support for BD prices although the increases may be tempered by resistance from the downstream synthetic rubber (SR) makers to any significant price hikes

The busy cracker turnaround season in September-November will likely see supply tightening at the same time that demand is expected to pick up during this period

Several crackers and BD units including South Korearsquos Lotte Chemical LG Chem and Chinarsquos Shanghai Secco and Maoming Petrochemical are scheduled to shut during

the September to November time frame

In the near term BD spot prices are likely to continue to trend lower as demand wanes while supply at the same time is expected to lengthen due to an influx of deep-sea cargoes and regional cracker restarts

More than 15000 tonnes of deep-sea cargoes from EU are expected to arrive in Asia in June and July at the same time that crackers in Asia including Indiarsquos Haldia Petrochemical and Indonesiarsquos Chandra Asri resume their production following their maintenance shutdowns

On 8 June spot prices fell to $1725tonne CFR (cost amp freight) northeast (NE) Asia the second consecutive week of decline after spiralling upwards in the two months since early April

BD spot prices had increased by more than 40 since early April peaking at $1800tonne CFR NE Asia on 25 May

Strong demand from derivative acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) makers which were running their plants at optimal rates had bolstered the BD price upsurge during this period

However derivative styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) and polybutadiene rubber (PBR) producers the key consumers of BD cut their production output given the continued erosion in margins

Several major SBR and PBR producers said their margins had fallen into negative territory and retreated from the BD spot market in June

Chinese spot appetite in particular tapered off as domestic BD prices were lower compared with the US dollar-denominated import prices

In China Hangzhou Zhechen Jilin Petrochemical Zhejiang Transfar and Shen Hua Chemical were some of the SBR and PBR plants that are shut for maintenance in June and July

Several SBR and PBR plants in Taiwan and South Korea were also running at lower rates following the 40 BD price spike in the two months from early April to end-May

In South Korea major SR producer Korea Kumho Petrochemical PC was running its SBR and PBR plants at reduced rates

Back to Quick Navigation | 33Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian butadiene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 34Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Similarly Taiwanrsquos TSRC also cut the production output of its SBR and PBR plants

The outlook for the fourth quarter is expected to see a different turn of events with SBR and PBR plants resuming their production and ramping up their operating rates while supply during the last quarter is expected to tighten from the heavy cracker turnaround season

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYETHYLENE (PE)

SOUTHEAST ASIA PE MARKET FACES LONGER H2 SUPPLY WEAK DEMANDBy Felita Widjaja

Southeast Asiarsquos polyethylene (PE) market may be facing longer supply in the second half hinging on how the US-China trade spat plays out amid the regionrsquos weakening demand for imports

Global PE trade flows will be affected should China the biggest importer of spot PE cargoes in the world decide to impose retaliatory 25 tariff on US cargoes

Southeast Asia as an alternative buying region might be hard pressed to absorb additional supply from the US where massive PE capacities recently started up which were meant to cater to huge Chinese demand

Around 5m tonnes of additional US PE capacities are expected from several major projects including those in the pipeline to start up within the second half of 2018

China primarily imports PE cargoes from Asia and the Middle East while the US is its sixth leading PE supplier in 2017

ldquoEventually more substantial and regular volume of US [PE] cargoes are expected to be traded in Asia in the second half of the year as we have yet to see them in the first half of this yearrdquo said a regional trader

Any changes in trade flows would pose challenges to US suppliers in the short term as they would need to revamp their logistics and distribution channels to redirect cargoes to other markets

Suppliers from the Middle East meanwhile might take the opportunity to supply more cargoes to China and would mean fewer volumes available to the southeast Asian market

The Middle East is southeast Asiarsquos major PE supplier

Demand for PE imports in southeast Asia has been weak amid lower prices in

Back to Quick Navigation | 35Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

the domestic markets as in the case of Thailand

ldquoThai traders are not keen to import as local prices are more competitive so they do not have the margin to sell the imported cargoes in local market Only some converters who need specific cargoes continue to importrdquo said a local Thai trader

Malaysia and Indonesia with predominantly Muslim populations have seen market activity slow down since mid-May when the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan started Ramadan ends with the Eid ul-Fitr holiday on 15 June

The Indonesian government has declared a longer Eid-ul Fitr holiday this year from 11-20 June

Markets in Singapore and the Philippines will be closed for the mid-June holiday as well

With supply expected to become long some market players expect regional PE prices in July and August to ease from

June with restocking activities expected to kick in towards the end of the third quarter

In the first half of 2018 southeast Asiarsquos average prices for commodity PE were largely stable to firm owing to suppliersrsquo relatively comfortable-to-tight supply for most of the period

At the start of June high density polyethylene (HDPE) film grade prices averaged $1395tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia while linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) film were at $1210tonne CFR SE Asia and $1265tonne CFR SE Asia respectively according to ICIS data

Prices had spiked in the first quarter as suppliers were holding comfortable-to-tight inventory as several regional producers have scheduled turnarounds at their plants in March Production issues and shutdowns in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia also limited availability of imports to southeast Asia during this period

Supply for HDPE film was particularly tight as some producers from the Middle East as well as Asia switched their focus into making HDPE pipe grade amid robust demand and better netbacks

The price uptrend across most PE grades could not be sustained in the second quarter although prices remained relatively stable-to-firm

The depreciation of local currencies in southeast Asia against the US dollar in most of the second quarter was also curbing overall demand for imports A weaker currency makes US dollar-denominated imports expensive

ldquoIndonesian buyers have not been buying much cargoes as the market slowed down during Ramadan and also because of weak rupiah which led the central bank to increase interest rate to limit the depreciationrdquo said a regional producer

CHINA PE IMPORTS TO STAY STRONG AMID DOMESTIC PLANT TURNAROUNDS By Angie Li

Chinarsquos polyethylene (PE) imports are expected to remain strong for the rest of the year after posting record volumes in January to April 2018 amid scheduled turnarounds at domestic facilities

Buyers in China have been accumulating imported PE cargoes as these were priced lower compared futures prices since the start of the year

More cargoes will be available to China as new capacities in the US are expected to boost production

For the month of May the countryrsquos PE imports are projected to reach 12m tonnes higher than the monthly average in the first four months of 2018

In January to April 2018 its PE imports volumes totaled 447m tonnes up by 12 from the previous corresponding period according to industry sources

The import volumes were making up for the production losses in the domestic market due to scheduled turnarounds

On 1 June low density PE (LDPE) imports were assessed at $1155-1180tonne linear low density PE (LLDPE) stood at $1150-1170tonne while high density PE (HDPE) film products were at $1340-1400tonne according to ICIS data

The prices have increased 15-62 from end-March but the gains came in lower than market playersrsquo expectations considering the heavy production loss due to turnarounds from April

Back to Quick Navigation | 36Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

An estimated 500000 tonnes are expected to be shaved in the second quarter due to scheduled maintenance at domestic facilities according ICIS data

ldquoWe thought the hefty plant turnarounds in the second quarter should lead to a surge in PE prices but the LDPE and LLDPE prices were less than satisfactory although HDPE prices [were] highrdquo said an east China-based trader referring to both the import and domestic PE prices

Strong imports amid hedging activities bloated the total supply in China in January to April to 998m tonnes up by 8 from the previous corresponding period with supply of LDPE and LLDPE up by 14 and 8 respectively market sources said

Imports of HDPE inched up by 2 over the same period given the gradersquos comparatively higher prices compared with LLDPE and LDPE

Increased availability due to recent capacity expansions and start-ups in Asia the Middle East also fuels Chinarsquos appetite for import cargoes

In the first quarter of 2018 additional cargoes from Saudi Arabia were mostly from Sadara Chemical which started up its 750000 tonneyear swing plant and 350000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Al Jubail during late 2016 and early 2017 respectively

Cargoes of Iran origin augmented the total volume from the UAE as market players try to go around the financial sanctions on Tehran Kordestan Petrochemicalrsquos 300000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Iran came on stream in March 2017

UAErsquos Borouge has also ramped up pipe and HDPE film exports to China during the period according to a supplier in the Middle East

Meanwhile PE imports from Singapore surged 38 year on year while those from India more than doubled to 127000 tonnes according to China Customs data

The ban on waste plastics implemented in China in the year also bolstered imports of virgin PE Some waste plastics processed overseas and then re-entered the market as virgin products but these volumes were limited

Last year China has imported 194m tonnes of PE waste plastics while

volumes in 2018 will be negligible with the implemention of the ban

Chinarsquos PE production this year is expected to increase by around 7 to about 17m tonnes in 2018 with imports projected to grow by 102 to around 13m tonnes according to a source from state-owned petrochemical giant PetroChina

Domestic demand for PE on the other hand is forecast to grow by 8 this year mainly from the packaging and pipe markets

Chinarsquos ongoing campaign to switch to using gas for power generation instead of coal is expected to continue boosting demand for PE gas pipes this year

The packaging industry will also drive up PE consumption underpinned by growth in electronic commerce Chinarsquos express delivery volumes reached 137bn packages during January-April 2018 based on data from the recent China Express Industry Development Conference in May

Back to Quick Navigation | 37Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 38Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

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bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

By Jonathan Lopez

ICIS NewsThe leading news service for real-time ground breaking news and analysis on the global petrochemicals markets

The ICIS News services give you unrivalled access to the most in-depth stories impacting the petrochemicals markets influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions

Our team of global editors are reporting around the clock to bring you the latest news and analysis so that you get the full picture of market and pricing developments first providing you with invaluable foresight to take advantage of every opportunity and to stay ahead of your competitors

With ICIS News you will be the first to read

Breaking news on the chemical markets that will impact your business

News on market moves deals and announcements that will affect your organisation

Force majeures closures and developments that influence your commodity prices

Expert analysis on industry trends and hot topics ndash know whatrsquos happening and why

Searchable archive with over 14 million articles from the past 10 years

Chemical Business News Base (CBNB) is a premium resource available on ICIS News It provides you with an extensive external source of upstream and downstream petrochemical news in summarised snapshots so you can quickly and easily get the latest updates on whatrsquos important to you

CBNB offers readers

Fast and consistent coverage on news facts figures from the upstream and downstream petrochemicals industry

Access to over 700 news sources including technical and trade journals company literature market research reports stockbroker reports books and directories

User-friendly search functionality to find articles most relevant to you from around the globe

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ICIS Chemical Business digital magazine (ICB) Our global team of experts digests and summarises the key issues and their potential impact on the chemical markets offering a comprehensive overview of the key developments that matter most-along with informed opinion and in-depth analysis

ICB features include

In-depth insight into chemical price changes and their impact on the markets

Understand the detail behind the headline news stories

Find out about supply amp demand trends and the factors impacting them

Get the complete picture of the chemical markets ndash all in one e-magazine

Easy access via e-magazine and premium magazine website

Find out more wwwiciscomnews

ICIS News offers access to additional sources including the ICIS Chemical Business Magazine and Chemical Business News Base (CBNB)

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYPROPYLENE (PP)

SE ASIA PP PRICES MAY COME UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 AS SUPPLY LENGTHENSBy Leanne Tan

Southeast Asiarsquos polypropylene (PP) market may come under pressure in the second half of the year on account of lengthening regional supply and weak downstream demand

Spot prices have been on the rise for most of May buoyed by bullish sentiment in the Chinese market and firm upstream feedstock costs

Margins for PP makers have been lower on average compared with levels in the previous year

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refinery amp Petrochemicals is scheduled to start up its 400000 tonneyear PP production unit in the third quarter The project was initially scheduled to start up in the first quarter of 2018

While domestic demand will continue to outstrip local production the countryrsquos reliance on imports may be diminished when the new plant starts up

Converters in the country have been opting to keep inventories lean in the short term amid expectations that prices may eventually weaken when more domestic supply becomes available

ldquoBuyers donrsquot want to buy too much import cargoes now not just because prices are high but also because there will be more locally-produced materials very soonrdquo a Vietnamese trader said

In Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan is expected to start commercial production at its expanded PP facility in Pasir Gudang in June or July The plantrsquos capacity will be raised by 200000 tonnesyear from 400000 tonnesyear

Import availabilities from South Korea are expected to lengthen in the medium-to-long term with S-Oil expected to complete an olefin downstream complex (ODC) at its Onsan refinery in Ulsan which will include a

405000 tonneyear PP capacity

On the demand front weakness is likely to persist in the second half with converters and end-users likely to continue buying spot cargoes on a hand-to-mouth basis

Indonesiarsquos demand in particular has been below expectations since the start of 2018 and this is likely to continue in the second half of the year according to market players

Back to Quick Navigation | 39Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Some players said import demand for dutiable cargoes may increase in the second half of the year as this is typically when the government issues duty exemption facilities

The duty exemption facilities are issued on a yearly basis which enable converters to import some PP volumes without extra cost

In Malaysia the removal of the 6 goods and services tax (GST) so far has had no immediate impact on the PP market although there are some expectations the move could potentially boost demand in the consumer market further down the road

In Vietnam demand for PP flat yarn has entered a seasonal lull from May to early July and will not pick up until August when the summer harvest begins

PP is widely used in the manufacture of woven sacks (for rice sacks) flexible packaging carpets household appliances and automotive parts

Spot PP prices in southeast Asia have been an uptrend for most of the first half

The PP market begun the year on a bullish note with spot prices surging by almost 10 over the course of two months all-origins PP flat yarn prices peaked at $1295tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia on 2 March

Healthy demand in China helped to provide support to spot prices in southeast Asia in the first quarter with a tight global spot supply leading to further price escalations

Some suppliers pulled back from the southeast Asian spot market to capitalise on better netbacks in other countries including Japan and Pakistan leading to further curtailed spot availability in southeast Asia

The market rally started to lose steam in early March amid subdued demand and a build-up of domestic inventories in China after the Lunar New Year holidays

The bearish sentiment soon spilled over into southeast Asia with Chinese suppliers pushing some volumes into southeast Asia amid an open arbitrage window

Vietnam remains the market of choice for Chinese exporters and PP import prices in the country plummeted as the result of the lengthened spot availability

However the bearish run was short-lived and prices soon bottomed out in early April

Bullish momentum in the upstream crude and naphtha markets propelled spot prices of polymers higher

Despite lacklustre downstream demand price hikes in April and May were commonplace as producers sought higher asking prices in view of narrower margins

TIGHT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT CHINA PP MARKET DESPITE WEAK DEMANDBy Dora Xue

Tight supply would buoy up Chinarsquos polypropylene (PP) prices in the near term despite weak downstream demand

The market is expecting heavy production losses following recent unexpected outages at five domestic facilities from May and scheduled turnarounds at other plants

In the week ended on 1 June domestic prices for PP flat yarn in east China were assessed at Chinese yuan (CNY) 9075tonne after a steady increase from early April according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos import prices for the same material stood at $1245tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China largely tracking movement in the domestic market over the past two months according to ICIS data

The strong PP prices have also started to deter buyers from purchasing more spot cargoes

ldquoPP prices are too high We donrsquot want to store too much in our warehouserdquo a buyer said

Downstream demand typically goes on a lull in June and July but any downward pressure on prices will be negated by a further tightening of supply as major plants will be taken off line for maintenance

ldquoWhen the maintenance season finishes in late June [PP] prices may start to go downrdquo a trader said

Demand is considered weakest at Qingdao in the eastern Shandong province due to government-mandated production cuts and logistics restrictions ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (SCO Summit) on 9-10 June

As of 1 June the combined polyolefin inventories of Chinese petrochemical majors Sinopec and PetroChina have declined back to normal levels of 700000 tonnes from a high of 1m tonnes in early March market sources said

Import supply to China may not improve in the short term as suppliers still deem other

Back to Quick Navigation | 40Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

Back to Quick Navigation | 43Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 23: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

Brightstock prices also softened reflecting increasingly squeezed buyersrsquo margins following steep gains seen from 22 September 2017 to 23 March 2018 in FOB Asia export prices

Some buyers were also sitting on sufficient inventories from active procurement earlier in the year leading to waned demand

This led refiners and traders to cut offers to encourage cargo uptake for May shipment cargoes

Group II 150N and 500600N prices largely held up on the back of potential supply woes in the summer season amid scheduled shutdowns at major Asian refineries

Taiwanrsquos Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) is expected to conduct planned maintenance in July market sources said

This led market players to hold on to expectations of buoyed spot prices for Group II base oils in the near term though significant increase is not expected for certain grades such as 500600N amid ample spot availability in the region

Group III 4 and 6cst base oils largely continued their steady price uptrend reflecting short supply among key South Korean Group III suppliers

8cst base oils of northeast Asian origin amid comparatively greater availability than its lighter counterparts saw less gains in prices since the beginning of 2018

South Korean-origin Group III base oils prices were mostly buoyant despite an influx of Middle East-origin Group III base oils into the northeast Asian market since November 2017 as South Korean-origin Group III users adhered largely to using the same material due to formulation restrictions and related OEM approvals

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian base oils markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 21Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPURIFIED TEREPHTHALIC ACID (PTA)

ASIA PTA SUPPLY TO LENGTHEN IN H2 ON INDIA CHINA PLANT START-UPSBy Samuel Wong

Supply of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in Asia is expected to lengthen in the second half of 2018 as new capacities will start up in the major markets of India and China amid a slowdown in demand

Major plants would have resumed production after unplanned outages to ease the current global supply tightness that has been driving up Asian prices while demand typically weakens in the third quarter

Asian PTA prices may start to come under pressure as fresh supply will hit the markets when new major regional plants start production in the third quarter

ldquoMarket sentiment is currently pessimistic about the outlook however this can quickly change if we see a sudden uptick in downstream demandrdquo a China-based producer said

In India JBF Grouprsquos 125m tonneyear PTA unit in Mangalore is expected to start up in the third quarter although the schedule is still fluid according to several market participants

In China Fuhaichuang Petrochemical formerly known as Dragon Aromatics (Zhangzhou) is planning to resume operations at its complex in the third quarter of 2018 after a prolonged shutdown

Its petrochemical complex in Zhangzhou has a 45m tonneyear PTA plant comprisings three 15m tonneyear lines two of which have been in operation since end-2017 The company is likely to restart the third line once smooth operations at its upstream paraxylene (PX) unit at the site is achieved market players said

In Europe Indorama Ventures Portugal plans to start up in July an idled 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Sines Thailand-based Indorama Ventures Ltd acquired the

plant from Portuguese Artlant PTA in late 2017

All these factors should see the narrowing of the price gap between Chinarsquos import and domestic markets as early as July after widening steadily from March to May

As of 12 June the gap stood at $96tonne down from the peak of about $111tonne on 30 May

Asiarsquos PTA prices are currently steady at firm levels Regional end-users preferred to procure cargoes on a need-to basis and were not keen on building inventories

Future movement will depend on market conditions in the downstream polyester industry

The wide price gap in Chinarsquos import and domestic markets has been deterring Chinese buyers from tapping the international spot market for supplies since March while demand was healthy especially in the downstream polyethylene terephthalate (PET) markets

Tight global supply in the first half saw Asian producers shipping out cargoes to the Middle East as well as Europe which was hit by unplanned outages in Belgium and Poland in April

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In Europe BP Chemical on 15 April declared a force majeure at its Belgium PTA unit and a second force majeure on 17 May PKN Orlen on 23 April declared a force majeure at its Wloclawek PTA unit in Poland which was subsequently lifted on 2 May with spot cargoes from the plant limited until after a planned maintenance in SeptemberOctober 2018

Within Asia the southeastern region has had PTA plant outages and had to procure cargoes from the northeast in the preceding two months

Regional supply tightened further with the unexpected shutdown of Hanwha General Chemicalrsquos 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Daesan prompting a force majeure declaration on 21 May

In the first half of 2018 strong growth in demand in the downstream polyester markets in Asia particularly China supported the rally in PTA prices amid tight supply

Downstream polyester markets were enjoying positive margins keeping demand for feedstock PTA healthy

In the key China market operating rates at polyester units were higher compared with the previous year

The countryrsquos PTA production losses in January-June 2018 on the other hand were estimated at around 134m tonnes due to planned and unplanned outages

Asiarsquos PTA producers were largely enjoying healthy margins on the back of steady demand growth in the downstream polyester markets Firmer upstream energy

and feedstock PX prices have also buoyed PTA prices

In January to May 2018 Brent crude traded at $6692-7616bbl up by about 25 year

on year while PX prices were at $938-994tonne representing a 15 increase over the same period

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian purified terephthalic acid (PTA)) markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 23Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPOLYETHYLENE TEREPHTHALATE (PET)

ASIA PET TO REMAIN FIRM IN Q3 AS TIGHT SUPPLY SUPPORT PRICESBy Hazel Goh

Asian polyethylene terephthalate (PET) market is likely to remain firm in the third quarter on the back of tight supply a trend that has supported prices so far in 2018

Recently PET tight supply is a result of production cuts in Asia and Europe that have not had a clear estimated date of resuming normal operations

China Resources Packaging had cut production at its PET lines in Changzhou by 50 following notice from the government to reduce pollution in end-May It is not known for how long the production cuts will remain in place

In Europe there had been feedstock purified terephthalic acid (PTA) supply tightness leading to recent PET production cuts and force majeure by Novapet and JBF respectively

Many buyers had been purchasing on a need-to basis expecting that firm prices are unsustainable and will come down Subsequently they did not stock up cargoes ahead of the peak summer demand season for countries in the northern hemisphere

The reality turned out different and they had to accept higher prices as production cuts kept the supply tight

PET used to track feedstock price movements closely as it had been an oversupplied market and producers typically operate on thin margins

The oversupply situation changed and tightness was first felt in the third quarter of 2017 when plant closures by JBF RAK in the UAE and Belgium and by Mossi amp Ghisolfi (MampG) in the US Mexico and Brazil following financial tightness in the two PET-producing companies

Hurricane Harvey that hit the US in the third quarter led to further production cuts in the US

Back to Quick Navigation | 24Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 1

From then on supply remained tight as the plant under JBF RAK in the UAE and the former MampG plant in the US that had been acquired by Far Eastern remained shut for extended period of time even into 2018

Market players previously had concerns about where China will export its material when final anti-dumping duties (ADD) - heard to be at the same level as thepreliminary duties of 398-530 - wereimposed on its cargoes into Japan inJanuary

Japan was the top exporting destination for Chinese cargoes before the ADD following which the exports dropped drastically

While other producers such as Taiwanese southeast Asian Indian and South Korean producers sold more volumes into Japan Chinese makers sold to other markets that were relinquished by the other producers

Table 1 shows a significant difference between 2016 and 2017 in Chinarsquos export volumes to key destinations from the January-to-March period

Ranked by volume starting with largestvolume as 1

There is an ongoing anti-dumping duty (ADD) investigation by the US on PET cargoes from Brazil Pakistan Indonesia Taiwan and South Korea

The Commerce Department issued the preliminary dumping rates for Indonesia at 1316 South Korea at 881-10141 and Taiwan at 902-1189 in May Final determinations will be issued by 8 November

Even so some producers from the countries under investigation continued to receive buying enquiries from the US amid the current tight supply situation

There will be some upcoming new capacities expected in Q3 as shown in table 2 that may bring about a more balanced supply to meet the demand

The US plant acquired by Far Eastern is estimated to restart in June-July which should also ease the supply tightness

Even with the new capacities and plant restarts market participants think it is unlikely that PET market will return to the oversupply situation seen in the previous years

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian PET markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 25Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 2

Our English-language report coverage includes

Styrene MEG Propylene

BTX Methanol Base Oil

BPA PE MTBE

Phenol PP Mixed AromaticsAcetone Oxo-Alcohol

Trusted industryintelligence for Chinarsquoscommodity marketsDevelopments in Chinarsquos petrochemicals industrycontinue to affect the global marketplace It istherefore vital for domestic and internationalmarket players to keep track of changes withinthe country to know where opportunities lie

ICIS has long been recognised as a reliablesource of information our locally-based expertscompile reports and analyses in English tosupport industry participants dealing with Chinamarkets or seeking to trade or invest

Pricing informationOur pricing data provide key insights into pricetrends in China to support your short-termdecision-making negotiations and analyses

bull Import and export spot and contract pricesbull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity

and upstreamdownstream marketsbull Data on inventory levels and price marginsbull Plant and production news

Petrochemicals Analytics SolutionsProviding our customers with a 360-degree view of the Chinese market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker - real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for thenext 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics - key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock anddo wnstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlooks

Available for key chemical commodities

wwwiciscomchina

Discover how we can meet your market information needs

enquiryiciscom

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESMONOETHYLENE GLYCOL (MEG)

ASIA MEG TO SEE DEMAND TAPERING LOWER SUPPLY IN EARLY H2By Eric Su

The Asian monoethylene glycol (MEG) market could see demand slowing down from the end of June while supply will be reduced from a number of plant turnarounds

Inventories are expected to decline in June after offtake rates at Chinese main ports rose sharply in the last two weeks of May because of an uptick in demand from downstream polyester buyers

Demand for MEG is also expected to remain strong in the first half of June boosted by high polyester production rates of above 85 and modestly low inventory levels

A slowdown in demand may take place in the second half of June as the traditional manufacturing peak period nears its end in July

Meanwhile supply conditions could tighten because of the plant turnarounds in northeast Asia

However supply from the Middle East will likely resume to normal levels given that there were no further delay in shipments in May

MEG prices in Asia have registered year-on-year growth rates in the months to June this year

MEG prices have mostly hovered above $900tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China Main Port (CMP) while prices were mostly below $900tonne CFR CMP in 2017

Prices have been volatile in 2018 with major price swings seen on a near monthly basis since February

MEG prices in first quarter of 2018 continued the uptrend seen in the fourth quarter of 2017 rising to $1030tonne CFR CMP in early March from $922tonne CFR

CMP in late December as the higher-than-expected growth in downstream polyester fuelled bullish market sentiment

Polyester growth in 2017 was estimated at above 10 beating an originally bearish expectation of 2-3

A price downtrend was observed in March with the MEG weekly average price losing nearly 10 of its value to $929tonne CFR CMP by end-March

The price decline coincided with a sharp influx of imported cargoes which was likely a result of over-procurement in January

Back to Quick Navigation | 26Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

and February when prices were trending upwards

March 2018 import volumes rose to nearly 1m tonnes a record three-year high according to official China customs data

MEG prices rebounded in April rising by around 9 from end-March to $1014tonne CFR CMP by end-April ahead of the traditional peak period for the downstream polyester sector The average polyester production rate rose to above 85 during the period

MEG also achieved its to-date weekly peak of $1042tonne CFR CMP in the week ending 20 April

Supply tightness was also observed in the Chinese domestic market because of shipment delays from the Middle East and logistical issues at China main ports over the same period

The lack of availability of prompt cargoes also led to an atypical price spread between April and May delivery parcels

Normally the spread between arrived-at-port and far-term arrival cargoes is at $0-10tonne CFR CMP but this widened to $20-30tonne CFR CMP This drove concerns of sharp price adjustments in May once April deliveries were fulfilled

These concerns came true as MEG prices

began to slide in May MEG weekly prices stood at $928tonne CFR CMP in the last week of May falling from $1003tonne CFR CMP in early May

High inventory levels have also weighed on MEG prices Inventory levels were above 900000 tonnes from early May onward rising to 938000 tonnes by in late March Most market participants deemed inventory levels above 900000 tonnes to be high

The increase in inventory levels in May were largely attributed to the arrival of Middle East shipments which were previously due for arrival in April

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian MEG markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 27Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSETHYLENE

NE ASIA ETHYLENE H2 OUTLOOK HINGES ON NEW SUPPLY SM PLANTBy Yeow Pei Lin

Northeast (NE) Asiarsquos ethylene (C2) second-half 2018 outlook is uncertain as several crackers are scheduled for maintenance but such production losses could be offset by the start up of a new plant and cargoes from outside the region

More than 20 crackers in Asia are slated to undergo maintenance in 2018 with the estimated capacity losses totalling more than 185m tonnes Most of the turnarounds in the first half of the year were concentrated in Japan ndash a key exporter to China

However several more companies are to carry out turnarounds in June and the rest of the year

The impact on the regional balance will depend on the start-up progress of a new facility in South Korea and on whether the strong exports from southeast Asia and Europe in the first half of 2018 will continue

Shipments from Yeosu South Korea will start to slow down in August ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at complexes in that region

Exports will recover by December when Lotte Chemical brings on-stream an added capacity of 200000 tonnesyear at its Yeosu cracker

The facility will undergo an expansion during a turnaround from late September to October

Shipments from Ulsan another petrochemical cluster in South Korea will grow in the second half of 2018

Newcomer S-Oil is expected to begin commercial operations at its residue upgrading complex (RUC) in Onsan in the second half of June

The companyrsquos entire ethylene output of up

to around 200000 tonnesyear is intended for the merchant market as it does not have any downstream plants

Exports from southeast Asian producers will continue to be driven by the higher value from ethylene sales in the ethylene versus polyethylene (PE) trade-off

There will however be supply constraints

Four crackers in the region will undergo

maintenance and the affected producers include ExxonMobil and PTT Global Chemicals (PTTGC) that were regular exporters in the first half of 2018

Exports from Europe will likely be influenced by the performance of the PE sector

The outlook for the PE market in Europe is uncertain given the growing prospect of competitively-priced exports from the new US plants

Back to Quick Navigation | 28Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Ethylene costs in the US have been at low levels since early 2018 as production growth outpaces that for consumption

Since late 2017 about 3m tonnesyear of new ethylene capacity and about 35m tonnesyear of new PE capacity have started up in the US

The new crackers have been running well but several of the new PE plants struggled to reach full operating rates

Exports from Saudi Arabia are expected to be constrained by increased domestic consumption

Petro Rabigh announced in April that the last few plants in its Phase 2 project including a 75000 tonneyear ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) unit have started up

The companyrsquos ethylene exports could fall further in the second half of 2018 following the completion of its PE plant maintenance shutdowns earlier in the year

Chinarsquos import demand is poised for further growth when a new 260000 tonneyear styrene monomer (SM) plant starts up in the third quarter as planned

Anhui Haoyuan Chemical will be operating the unit in Fuyang Anhui on a standalone basis as its plans to build a methanol-to-olefin (MTO) plant have been put on hold amid high methanol prices

The plant will require around 78000 tonnes of ethylene annually to operate at maximum capacity

Based on the above factors it was not immediately clear if the ethylene prices in the second half will follow the volatile trend they displayed in the first five months of 2018

NE Asia spot ethylene prices were volatile from January to May as the impact of a heavy regional cracker turnaround schedule and strong Chinese demand was at times outweighed by strong exports from southeast Asia the Middle East and Europe

The market started the year at above a two and a half year high of $1415tonne CFR (cost amp freight) NE Asia in early January

Subsequent transacted prices fluctuated within a low $1200stonne to mid $1300stonne CFR NE Asia band in the five months ended 31 May

Prices in the first quarter were initially weighed down by ample supply from producers in the Middle East and Asia due to a series of PE plant shutdowns - both planned and unplanned

That was despite strong pre-Lunar New Year holiday restocking activities in China

Demand was bolstered by the start up of a 500000 tonneyear non-integrated SM plant and generally healthy downstream margins for producers outside the PE sector

End-users were also keen to build up their inventories because of the slow progress in their 2018 term contract discussions ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at facilities of key exporters in the region

In addition a major ethylene oxide (EO) maker was seeking more import cargoes following a disruption in supply from its upstream MTO unit The plant was shut twice between late November and the first half of February because of high feedstock methanol costs

The market recovered in early March in line with the start of the annual cracker turnaround season in northeast Asia where

scheduled capacity losses in 2018 will be overall higher than the previous year

That explained why the countryrsquos exports from January to April slumped by 14 year-on-year to 201274 tonnes

In late April northeast Asiarsquos spot prices fell again after a surprisingly large quantity of deep-sea spot cargoes were sold into Asia for delivery between the middle of May and the first half of June

There were at least 55000-60000 tonnes of cargoes from Europe in addition to 11000 tonnes of US supply for that delivery period Europe was in a long position because of derivative maintenance shutdowns and production problems

Continued strong exports from southeast Asia owing to downstream production issues and the weak performance of the linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) market contributed to the downbeat sentiment

The ample supply outweighed Chinarsquos robust import demand

Buying interest in China was strong for April and May arrival cargoes on the back

Back to Quick Navigation | 29Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

of healthy downstream margins for certain downstream markets such as SM EO and monoethylene glycol (MEG)

Ethylene buyers in China were also keen to book deep-sea cargoes to offset the expected regional production losses from cracker turnarounds

Prices rebounded quickly in mid-May

aided by a bullish SM market and reduced domestic supply

Some MTO operators lowered production in May as high feedstock methanol costs led to squeezed margins while a key producer in east China lowered its cracker run rates unexpectedly

Sharp increases in feedstock naphtha costs

which tracked gains on crude oil futures also helped set a floor to the earlier price declines

By early June spot ethylene prices had touched a 20-week high raising questions on whether the market will see similar price volatility in the second half of 2018

Producers will turn hawkish if the outlook for crude and naphtha markets remains upbeat

Back to Quick Navigation | 30Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSPROPYLENE

TIGHT NE ASIA PROPYLENE SUPPLY TO LIMIT H2 PRICE FLUCTUATIONSBy Joson Ng

Tight propylene (C3) supply in northeast Asia amid a heavy turnaround schedule in 2018 will continue supporting regional prices of the material into the second half

Sellers are likely to continue passing on firmer costs to buyers which are wary of October when heavy propylene production losses are expected

Buyersrsquo resistance in the key China market would keep any further increase in propylene prices in check with some downstream producers considering cutting output due to high feedstock costs

At the start of June propylene prices have weakened ending the strong general uptrend since end-March amid weakness in Chinarsquos domestic market as demand softened due to turnarounds at downstream polypropylene (PP) plants

However the downward pressure on regional prices may be temporary as overall supply in Asia is expected to be tight

In early June spot propylene prices in northeast Asia were about 9 higher from the start of 2018 according to ICIS data

The year started on a bullish note fuelled by a heavier cracker turnaround schedule compared with 2017 and higher premium levels concluded for contract cargoes

The uptrend was sustained into February due to restocking activities in various import markets in northeast Asia before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February

Before the holidays some South Korean producers were convinced the market will experience supply shortage as both GS Caltexrsquos fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity and Yeochun NCCrsquos (YNCC) cracker ndash which can produce 280000 tonnesyear of propylene ndash were due for maintenance in February through to April

But propylene prices surprisingly weakened from 9 February to end-March without demand support from Chinarsquos weak PP market which struggled through sluggish sales and high inventory after the countryrsquos week-long Lunar New Year holiday

A renewed wave of scheduled turnarounds at regional plants tightened supply and drove up propylene prices in April and May

In Taiwan Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) took its residue fluid catalytic

Back to Quick Navigation | 31Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

cracking (RFCC) unit with a 350000 tonneyear propylene capacity off stream from 1 March to mid-April while CPC Corp shut its 100000 tonneyear FCC unit on 10 April and restarted in early June

In South Korea GS Caltex also had a turnaround at its FCC unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity from 19 February to 5 April

SK Advanced shut its propane dehydrogenated (PDH) unit with 600000 tonneyear propylene capacity on 21 April to early May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian propylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 32Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

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ICIS price forecast reportsSupply demand and price trends at a glance

ICIS price forecast reports provide a clear view of prices and supply and demand trends for the next 12 months Packed with vital information the report includes everything you need to assess where the market is heading and the impact or opportunity that presents for your business

To find out more or take a trial visit wwwiciscompriceforecast

Price Forecast Window

ICIS price forecasts are now available on the Dashboard channel using the Price Forecast Window which will enable users to

n Chart the price forecast against the last (rolling) twelve months of related price history

n Plot the last 12 months to view forecast progression and ICIS forecast accuracy

n Convert data into different currencies and units and download this data into Excel in order to easily enter into your own calculations

How price forecast reports can help youn Understand the marketUse ICIS price forecast reports to understand where the market is heading and identify the risks and the opportunities for your business What are the major demand developments for your product n Safeguard commercial decisionsUse market information to make better-informed business decisions relating to supply and demand Learn about changes in market capacities What factors will affect supply for you n Budgeting and planningWhether you are planning how much you will be spending in the short-to medium or even long term use the price forecast reports to help assess future prices for your product What will the price of your product be in six monthsrsquo time

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available

Available as price forecast windows only

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Polyethylene

Benzene

StyrenePolystyrene

Methanol

Ethylene

Propylene

Styrene

Asia Europe US Global

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OLEFINSBUTADIENE

ASIA BD TO FLUCTUATE IN H2 AS SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE SHIFTSBy Helen Yan

Asiarsquos butadiene (BD) spot prices for July shipments are likely to face downward pressure but any price downtrend is likely to reverse when cracker turnarounds start to kick in from September onwards

BD prices are expected to be weighed down before seeing support again in the third quarter as the supply and demand balance shifts during this period

The fourth quarter will likely see support for BD prices although the increases may be tempered by resistance from the downstream synthetic rubber (SR) makers to any significant price hikes

The busy cracker turnaround season in September-November will likely see supply tightening at the same time that demand is expected to pick up during this period

Several crackers and BD units including South Korearsquos Lotte Chemical LG Chem and Chinarsquos Shanghai Secco and Maoming Petrochemical are scheduled to shut during

the September to November time frame

In the near term BD spot prices are likely to continue to trend lower as demand wanes while supply at the same time is expected to lengthen due to an influx of deep-sea cargoes and regional cracker restarts

More than 15000 tonnes of deep-sea cargoes from EU are expected to arrive in Asia in June and July at the same time that crackers in Asia including Indiarsquos Haldia Petrochemical and Indonesiarsquos Chandra Asri resume their production following their maintenance shutdowns

On 8 June spot prices fell to $1725tonne CFR (cost amp freight) northeast (NE) Asia the second consecutive week of decline after spiralling upwards in the two months since early April

BD spot prices had increased by more than 40 since early April peaking at $1800tonne CFR NE Asia on 25 May

Strong demand from derivative acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) makers which were running their plants at optimal rates had bolstered the BD price upsurge during this period

However derivative styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) and polybutadiene rubber (PBR) producers the key consumers of BD cut their production output given the continued erosion in margins

Several major SBR and PBR producers said their margins had fallen into negative territory and retreated from the BD spot market in June

Chinese spot appetite in particular tapered off as domestic BD prices were lower compared with the US dollar-denominated import prices

In China Hangzhou Zhechen Jilin Petrochemical Zhejiang Transfar and Shen Hua Chemical were some of the SBR and PBR plants that are shut for maintenance in June and July

Several SBR and PBR plants in Taiwan and South Korea were also running at lower rates following the 40 BD price spike in the two months from early April to end-May

In South Korea major SR producer Korea Kumho Petrochemical PC was running its SBR and PBR plants at reduced rates

Back to Quick Navigation | 33Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian butadiene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 34Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Similarly Taiwanrsquos TSRC also cut the production output of its SBR and PBR plants

The outlook for the fourth quarter is expected to see a different turn of events with SBR and PBR plants resuming their production and ramping up their operating rates while supply during the last quarter is expected to tighten from the heavy cracker turnaround season

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYETHYLENE (PE)

SOUTHEAST ASIA PE MARKET FACES LONGER H2 SUPPLY WEAK DEMANDBy Felita Widjaja

Southeast Asiarsquos polyethylene (PE) market may be facing longer supply in the second half hinging on how the US-China trade spat plays out amid the regionrsquos weakening demand for imports

Global PE trade flows will be affected should China the biggest importer of spot PE cargoes in the world decide to impose retaliatory 25 tariff on US cargoes

Southeast Asia as an alternative buying region might be hard pressed to absorb additional supply from the US where massive PE capacities recently started up which were meant to cater to huge Chinese demand

Around 5m tonnes of additional US PE capacities are expected from several major projects including those in the pipeline to start up within the second half of 2018

China primarily imports PE cargoes from Asia and the Middle East while the US is its sixth leading PE supplier in 2017

ldquoEventually more substantial and regular volume of US [PE] cargoes are expected to be traded in Asia in the second half of the year as we have yet to see them in the first half of this yearrdquo said a regional trader

Any changes in trade flows would pose challenges to US suppliers in the short term as they would need to revamp their logistics and distribution channels to redirect cargoes to other markets

Suppliers from the Middle East meanwhile might take the opportunity to supply more cargoes to China and would mean fewer volumes available to the southeast Asian market

The Middle East is southeast Asiarsquos major PE supplier

Demand for PE imports in southeast Asia has been weak amid lower prices in

Back to Quick Navigation | 35Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

the domestic markets as in the case of Thailand

ldquoThai traders are not keen to import as local prices are more competitive so they do not have the margin to sell the imported cargoes in local market Only some converters who need specific cargoes continue to importrdquo said a local Thai trader

Malaysia and Indonesia with predominantly Muslim populations have seen market activity slow down since mid-May when the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan started Ramadan ends with the Eid ul-Fitr holiday on 15 June

The Indonesian government has declared a longer Eid-ul Fitr holiday this year from 11-20 June

Markets in Singapore and the Philippines will be closed for the mid-June holiday as well

With supply expected to become long some market players expect regional PE prices in July and August to ease from

June with restocking activities expected to kick in towards the end of the third quarter

In the first half of 2018 southeast Asiarsquos average prices for commodity PE were largely stable to firm owing to suppliersrsquo relatively comfortable-to-tight supply for most of the period

At the start of June high density polyethylene (HDPE) film grade prices averaged $1395tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia while linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) film were at $1210tonne CFR SE Asia and $1265tonne CFR SE Asia respectively according to ICIS data

Prices had spiked in the first quarter as suppliers were holding comfortable-to-tight inventory as several regional producers have scheduled turnarounds at their plants in March Production issues and shutdowns in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia also limited availability of imports to southeast Asia during this period

Supply for HDPE film was particularly tight as some producers from the Middle East as well as Asia switched their focus into making HDPE pipe grade amid robust demand and better netbacks

The price uptrend across most PE grades could not be sustained in the second quarter although prices remained relatively stable-to-firm

The depreciation of local currencies in southeast Asia against the US dollar in most of the second quarter was also curbing overall demand for imports A weaker currency makes US dollar-denominated imports expensive

ldquoIndonesian buyers have not been buying much cargoes as the market slowed down during Ramadan and also because of weak rupiah which led the central bank to increase interest rate to limit the depreciationrdquo said a regional producer

CHINA PE IMPORTS TO STAY STRONG AMID DOMESTIC PLANT TURNAROUNDS By Angie Li

Chinarsquos polyethylene (PE) imports are expected to remain strong for the rest of the year after posting record volumes in January to April 2018 amid scheduled turnarounds at domestic facilities

Buyers in China have been accumulating imported PE cargoes as these were priced lower compared futures prices since the start of the year

More cargoes will be available to China as new capacities in the US are expected to boost production

For the month of May the countryrsquos PE imports are projected to reach 12m tonnes higher than the monthly average in the first four months of 2018

In January to April 2018 its PE imports volumes totaled 447m tonnes up by 12 from the previous corresponding period according to industry sources

The import volumes were making up for the production losses in the domestic market due to scheduled turnarounds

On 1 June low density PE (LDPE) imports were assessed at $1155-1180tonne linear low density PE (LLDPE) stood at $1150-1170tonne while high density PE (HDPE) film products were at $1340-1400tonne according to ICIS data

The prices have increased 15-62 from end-March but the gains came in lower than market playersrsquo expectations considering the heavy production loss due to turnarounds from April

Back to Quick Navigation | 36Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

An estimated 500000 tonnes are expected to be shaved in the second quarter due to scheduled maintenance at domestic facilities according ICIS data

ldquoWe thought the hefty plant turnarounds in the second quarter should lead to a surge in PE prices but the LDPE and LLDPE prices were less than satisfactory although HDPE prices [were] highrdquo said an east China-based trader referring to both the import and domestic PE prices

Strong imports amid hedging activities bloated the total supply in China in January to April to 998m tonnes up by 8 from the previous corresponding period with supply of LDPE and LLDPE up by 14 and 8 respectively market sources said

Imports of HDPE inched up by 2 over the same period given the gradersquos comparatively higher prices compared with LLDPE and LDPE

Increased availability due to recent capacity expansions and start-ups in Asia the Middle East also fuels Chinarsquos appetite for import cargoes

In the first quarter of 2018 additional cargoes from Saudi Arabia were mostly from Sadara Chemical which started up its 750000 tonneyear swing plant and 350000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Al Jubail during late 2016 and early 2017 respectively

Cargoes of Iran origin augmented the total volume from the UAE as market players try to go around the financial sanctions on Tehran Kordestan Petrochemicalrsquos 300000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Iran came on stream in March 2017

UAErsquos Borouge has also ramped up pipe and HDPE film exports to China during the period according to a supplier in the Middle East

Meanwhile PE imports from Singapore surged 38 year on year while those from India more than doubled to 127000 tonnes according to China Customs data

The ban on waste plastics implemented in China in the year also bolstered imports of virgin PE Some waste plastics processed overseas and then re-entered the market as virgin products but these volumes were limited

Last year China has imported 194m tonnes of PE waste plastics while

volumes in 2018 will be negligible with the implemention of the ban

Chinarsquos PE production this year is expected to increase by around 7 to about 17m tonnes in 2018 with imports projected to grow by 102 to around 13m tonnes according to a source from state-owned petrochemical giant PetroChina

Domestic demand for PE on the other hand is forecast to grow by 8 this year mainly from the packaging and pipe markets

Chinarsquos ongoing campaign to switch to using gas for power generation instead of coal is expected to continue boosting demand for PE gas pipes this year

The packaging industry will also drive up PE consumption underpinned by growth in electronic commerce Chinarsquos express delivery volumes reached 137bn packages during January-April 2018 based on data from the recent China Express Industry Development Conference in May

Back to Quick Navigation | 37Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 38Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

By Jonathan Lopez

ICIS NewsThe leading news service for real-time ground breaking news and analysis on the global petrochemicals markets

The ICIS News services give you unrivalled access to the most in-depth stories impacting the petrochemicals markets influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions

Our team of global editors are reporting around the clock to bring you the latest news and analysis so that you get the full picture of market and pricing developments first providing you with invaluable foresight to take advantage of every opportunity and to stay ahead of your competitors

With ICIS News you will be the first to read

Breaking news on the chemical markets that will impact your business

News on market moves deals and announcements that will affect your organisation

Force majeures closures and developments that influence your commodity prices

Expert analysis on industry trends and hot topics ndash know whatrsquos happening and why

Searchable archive with over 14 million articles from the past 10 years

Chemical Business News Base (CBNB) is a premium resource available on ICIS News It provides you with an extensive external source of upstream and downstream petrochemical news in summarised snapshots so you can quickly and easily get the latest updates on whatrsquos important to you

CBNB offers readers

Fast and consistent coverage on news facts figures from the upstream and downstream petrochemicals industry

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User-friendly search functionality to find articles most relevant to you from around the globe

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ICB features include

In-depth insight into chemical price changes and their impact on the markets

Understand the detail behind the headline news stories

Find out about supply amp demand trends and the factors impacting them

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Easy access via e-magazine and premium magazine website

Find out more wwwiciscomnews

ICIS News offers access to additional sources including the ICIS Chemical Business Magazine and Chemical Business News Base (CBNB)

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYPROPYLENE (PP)

SE ASIA PP PRICES MAY COME UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 AS SUPPLY LENGTHENSBy Leanne Tan

Southeast Asiarsquos polypropylene (PP) market may come under pressure in the second half of the year on account of lengthening regional supply and weak downstream demand

Spot prices have been on the rise for most of May buoyed by bullish sentiment in the Chinese market and firm upstream feedstock costs

Margins for PP makers have been lower on average compared with levels in the previous year

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refinery amp Petrochemicals is scheduled to start up its 400000 tonneyear PP production unit in the third quarter The project was initially scheduled to start up in the first quarter of 2018

While domestic demand will continue to outstrip local production the countryrsquos reliance on imports may be diminished when the new plant starts up

Converters in the country have been opting to keep inventories lean in the short term amid expectations that prices may eventually weaken when more domestic supply becomes available

ldquoBuyers donrsquot want to buy too much import cargoes now not just because prices are high but also because there will be more locally-produced materials very soonrdquo a Vietnamese trader said

In Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan is expected to start commercial production at its expanded PP facility in Pasir Gudang in June or July The plantrsquos capacity will be raised by 200000 tonnesyear from 400000 tonnesyear

Import availabilities from South Korea are expected to lengthen in the medium-to-long term with S-Oil expected to complete an olefin downstream complex (ODC) at its Onsan refinery in Ulsan which will include a

405000 tonneyear PP capacity

On the demand front weakness is likely to persist in the second half with converters and end-users likely to continue buying spot cargoes on a hand-to-mouth basis

Indonesiarsquos demand in particular has been below expectations since the start of 2018 and this is likely to continue in the second half of the year according to market players

Back to Quick Navigation | 39Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Some players said import demand for dutiable cargoes may increase in the second half of the year as this is typically when the government issues duty exemption facilities

The duty exemption facilities are issued on a yearly basis which enable converters to import some PP volumes without extra cost

In Malaysia the removal of the 6 goods and services tax (GST) so far has had no immediate impact on the PP market although there are some expectations the move could potentially boost demand in the consumer market further down the road

In Vietnam demand for PP flat yarn has entered a seasonal lull from May to early July and will not pick up until August when the summer harvest begins

PP is widely used in the manufacture of woven sacks (for rice sacks) flexible packaging carpets household appliances and automotive parts

Spot PP prices in southeast Asia have been an uptrend for most of the first half

The PP market begun the year on a bullish note with spot prices surging by almost 10 over the course of two months all-origins PP flat yarn prices peaked at $1295tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia on 2 March

Healthy demand in China helped to provide support to spot prices in southeast Asia in the first quarter with a tight global spot supply leading to further price escalations

Some suppliers pulled back from the southeast Asian spot market to capitalise on better netbacks in other countries including Japan and Pakistan leading to further curtailed spot availability in southeast Asia

The market rally started to lose steam in early March amid subdued demand and a build-up of domestic inventories in China after the Lunar New Year holidays

The bearish sentiment soon spilled over into southeast Asia with Chinese suppliers pushing some volumes into southeast Asia amid an open arbitrage window

Vietnam remains the market of choice for Chinese exporters and PP import prices in the country plummeted as the result of the lengthened spot availability

However the bearish run was short-lived and prices soon bottomed out in early April

Bullish momentum in the upstream crude and naphtha markets propelled spot prices of polymers higher

Despite lacklustre downstream demand price hikes in April and May were commonplace as producers sought higher asking prices in view of narrower margins

TIGHT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT CHINA PP MARKET DESPITE WEAK DEMANDBy Dora Xue

Tight supply would buoy up Chinarsquos polypropylene (PP) prices in the near term despite weak downstream demand

The market is expecting heavy production losses following recent unexpected outages at five domestic facilities from May and scheduled turnarounds at other plants

In the week ended on 1 June domestic prices for PP flat yarn in east China were assessed at Chinese yuan (CNY) 9075tonne after a steady increase from early April according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos import prices for the same material stood at $1245tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China largely tracking movement in the domestic market over the past two months according to ICIS data

The strong PP prices have also started to deter buyers from purchasing more spot cargoes

ldquoPP prices are too high We donrsquot want to store too much in our warehouserdquo a buyer said

Downstream demand typically goes on a lull in June and July but any downward pressure on prices will be negated by a further tightening of supply as major plants will be taken off line for maintenance

ldquoWhen the maintenance season finishes in late June [PP] prices may start to go downrdquo a trader said

Demand is considered weakest at Qingdao in the eastern Shandong province due to government-mandated production cuts and logistics restrictions ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (SCO Summit) on 9-10 June

As of 1 June the combined polyolefin inventories of Chinese petrochemical majors Sinopec and PetroChina have declined back to normal levels of 700000 tonnes from a high of 1m tonnes in early March market sources said

Import supply to China may not improve in the short term as suppliers still deem other

Back to Quick Navigation | 40Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

Back to Quick Navigation | 43Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

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PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 24: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPURIFIED TEREPHTHALIC ACID (PTA)

ASIA PTA SUPPLY TO LENGTHEN IN H2 ON INDIA CHINA PLANT START-UPSBy Samuel Wong

Supply of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in Asia is expected to lengthen in the second half of 2018 as new capacities will start up in the major markets of India and China amid a slowdown in demand

Major plants would have resumed production after unplanned outages to ease the current global supply tightness that has been driving up Asian prices while demand typically weakens in the third quarter

Asian PTA prices may start to come under pressure as fresh supply will hit the markets when new major regional plants start production in the third quarter

ldquoMarket sentiment is currently pessimistic about the outlook however this can quickly change if we see a sudden uptick in downstream demandrdquo a China-based producer said

In India JBF Grouprsquos 125m tonneyear PTA unit in Mangalore is expected to start up in the third quarter although the schedule is still fluid according to several market participants

In China Fuhaichuang Petrochemical formerly known as Dragon Aromatics (Zhangzhou) is planning to resume operations at its complex in the third quarter of 2018 after a prolonged shutdown

Its petrochemical complex in Zhangzhou has a 45m tonneyear PTA plant comprisings three 15m tonneyear lines two of which have been in operation since end-2017 The company is likely to restart the third line once smooth operations at its upstream paraxylene (PX) unit at the site is achieved market players said

In Europe Indorama Ventures Portugal plans to start up in July an idled 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Sines Thailand-based Indorama Ventures Ltd acquired the

plant from Portuguese Artlant PTA in late 2017

All these factors should see the narrowing of the price gap between Chinarsquos import and domestic markets as early as July after widening steadily from March to May

As of 12 June the gap stood at $96tonne down from the peak of about $111tonne on 30 May

Asiarsquos PTA prices are currently steady at firm levels Regional end-users preferred to procure cargoes on a need-to basis and were not keen on building inventories

Future movement will depend on market conditions in the downstream polyester industry

The wide price gap in Chinarsquos import and domestic markets has been deterring Chinese buyers from tapping the international spot market for supplies since March while demand was healthy especially in the downstream polyethylene terephthalate (PET) markets

Tight global supply in the first half saw Asian producers shipping out cargoes to the Middle East as well as Europe which was hit by unplanned outages in Belgium and Poland in April

Back to Quick Navigation | 22Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

In Europe BP Chemical on 15 April declared a force majeure at its Belgium PTA unit and a second force majeure on 17 May PKN Orlen on 23 April declared a force majeure at its Wloclawek PTA unit in Poland which was subsequently lifted on 2 May with spot cargoes from the plant limited until after a planned maintenance in SeptemberOctober 2018

Within Asia the southeastern region has had PTA plant outages and had to procure cargoes from the northeast in the preceding two months

Regional supply tightened further with the unexpected shutdown of Hanwha General Chemicalrsquos 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Daesan prompting a force majeure declaration on 21 May

In the first half of 2018 strong growth in demand in the downstream polyester markets in Asia particularly China supported the rally in PTA prices amid tight supply

Downstream polyester markets were enjoying positive margins keeping demand for feedstock PTA healthy

In the key China market operating rates at polyester units were higher compared with the previous year

The countryrsquos PTA production losses in January-June 2018 on the other hand were estimated at around 134m tonnes due to planned and unplanned outages

Asiarsquos PTA producers were largely enjoying healthy margins on the back of steady demand growth in the downstream polyester markets Firmer upstream energy

and feedstock PX prices have also buoyed PTA prices

In January to May 2018 Brent crude traded at $6692-7616bbl up by about 25 year

on year while PX prices were at $938-994tonne representing a 15 increase over the same period

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian purified terephthalic acid (PTA)) markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 23Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPOLYETHYLENE TEREPHTHALATE (PET)

ASIA PET TO REMAIN FIRM IN Q3 AS TIGHT SUPPLY SUPPORT PRICESBy Hazel Goh

Asian polyethylene terephthalate (PET) market is likely to remain firm in the third quarter on the back of tight supply a trend that has supported prices so far in 2018

Recently PET tight supply is a result of production cuts in Asia and Europe that have not had a clear estimated date of resuming normal operations

China Resources Packaging had cut production at its PET lines in Changzhou by 50 following notice from the government to reduce pollution in end-May It is not known for how long the production cuts will remain in place

In Europe there had been feedstock purified terephthalic acid (PTA) supply tightness leading to recent PET production cuts and force majeure by Novapet and JBF respectively

Many buyers had been purchasing on a need-to basis expecting that firm prices are unsustainable and will come down Subsequently they did not stock up cargoes ahead of the peak summer demand season for countries in the northern hemisphere

The reality turned out different and they had to accept higher prices as production cuts kept the supply tight

PET used to track feedstock price movements closely as it had been an oversupplied market and producers typically operate on thin margins

The oversupply situation changed and tightness was first felt in the third quarter of 2017 when plant closures by JBF RAK in the UAE and Belgium and by Mossi amp Ghisolfi (MampG) in the US Mexico and Brazil following financial tightness in the two PET-producing companies

Hurricane Harvey that hit the US in the third quarter led to further production cuts in the US

Back to Quick Navigation | 24Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 1

From then on supply remained tight as the plant under JBF RAK in the UAE and the former MampG plant in the US that had been acquired by Far Eastern remained shut for extended period of time even into 2018

Market players previously had concerns about where China will export its material when final anti-dumping duties (ADD) - heard to be at the same level as thepreliminary duties of 398-530 - wereimposed on its cargoes into Japan inJanuary

Japan was the top exporting destination for Chinese cargoes before the ADD following which the exports dropped drastically

While other producers such as Taiwanese southeast Asian Indian and South Korean producers sold more volumes into Japan Chinese makers sold to other markets that were relinquished by the other producers

Table 1 shows a significant difference between 2016 and 2017 in Chinarsquos export volumes to key destinations from the January-to-March period

Ranked by volume starting with largestvolume as 1

There is an ongoing anti-dumping duty (ADD) investigation by the US on PET cargoes from Brazil Pakistan Indonesia Taiwan and South Korea

The Commerce Department issued the preliminary dumping rates for Indonesia at 1316 South Korea at 881-10141 and Taiwan at 902-1189 in May Final determinations will be issued by 8 November

Even so some producers from the countries under investigation continued to receive buying enquiries from the US amid the current tight supply situation

There will be some upcoming new capacities expected in Q3 as shown in table 2 that may bring about a more balanced supply to meet the demand

The US plant acquired by Far Eastern is estimated to restart in June-July which should also ease the supply tightness

Even with the new capacities and plant restarts market participants think it is unlikely that PET market will return to the oversupply situation seen in the previous years

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian PET markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 25Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 2

Our English-language report coverage includes

Styrene MEG Propylene

BTX Methanol Base Oil

BPA PE MTBE

Phenol PP Mixed AromaticsAcetone Oxo-Alcohol

Trusted industryintelligence for Chinarsquoscommodity marketsDevelopments in Chinarsquos petrochemicals industrycontinue to affect the global marketplace It istherefore vital for domestic and internationalmarket players to keep track of changes withinthe country to know where opportunities lie

ICIS has long been recognised as a reliablesource of information our locally-based expertscompile reports and analyses in English tosupport industry participants dealing with Chinamarkets or seeking to trade or invest

Pricing informationOur pricing data provide key insights into pricetrends in China to support your short-termdecision-making negotiations and analyses

bull Import and export spot and contract pricesbull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity

and upstreamdownstream marketsbull Data on inventory levels and price marginsbull Plant and production news

Petrochemicals Analytics SolutionsProviding our customers with a 360-degree view of the Chinese market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker - real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for thenext 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics - key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock anddo wnstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlooks

Available for key chemical commodities

wwwiciscomchina

Discover how we can meet your market information needs

enquiryiciscom

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESMONOETHYLENE GLYCOL (MEG)

ASIA MEG TO SEE DEMAND TAPERING LOWER SUPPLY IN EARLY H2By Eric Su

The Asian monoethylene glycol (MEG) market could see demand slowing down from the end of June while supply will be reduced from a number of plant turnarounds

Inventories are expected to decline in June after offtake rates at Chinese main ports rose sharply in the last two weeks of May because of an uptick in demand from downstream polyester buyers

Demand for MEG is also expected to remain strong in the first half of June boosted by high polyester production rates of above 85 and modestly low inventory levels

A slowdown in demand may take place in the second half of June as the traditional manufacturing peak period nears its end in July

Meanwhile supply conditions could tighten because of the plant turnarounds in northeast Asia

However supply from the Middle East will likely resume to normal levels given that there were no further delay in shipments in May

MEG prices in Asia have registered year-on-year growth rates in the months to June this year

MEG prices have mostly hovered above $900tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China Main Port (CMP) while prices were mostly below $900tonne CFR CMP in 2017

Prices have been volatile in 2018 with major price swings seen on a near monthly basis since February

MEG prices in first quarter of 2018 continued the uptrend seen in the fourth quarter of 2017 rising to $1030tonne CFR CMP in early March from $922tonne CFR

CMP in late December as the higher-than-expected growth in downstream polyester fuelled bullish market sentiment

Polyester growth in 2017 was estimated at above 10 beating an originally bearish expectation of 2-3

A price downtrend was observed in March with the MEG weekly average price losing nearly 10 of its value to $929tonne CFR CMP by end-March

The price decline coincided with a sharp influx of imported cargoes which was likely a result of over-procurement in January

Back to Quick Navigation | 26Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

and February when prices were trending upwards

March 2018 import volumes rose to nearly 1m tonnes a record three-year high according to official China customs data

MEG prices rebounded in April rising by around 9 from end-March to $1014tonne CFR CMP by end-April ahead of the traditional peak period for the downstream polyester sector The average polyester production rate rose to above 85 during the period

MEG also achieved its to-date weekly peak of $1042tonne CFR CMP in the week ending 20 April

Supply tightness was also observed in the Chinese domestic market because of shipment delays from the Middle East and logistical issues at China main ports over the same period

The lack of availability of prompt cargoes also led to an atypical price spread between April and May delivery parcels

Normally the spread between arrived-at-port and far-term arrival cargoes is at $0-10tonne CFR CMP but this widened to $20-30tonne CFR CMP This drove concerns of sharp price adjustments in May once April deliveries were fulfilled

These concerns came true as MEG prices

began to slide in May MEG weekly prices stood at $928tonne CFR CMP in the last week of May falling from $1003tonne CFR CMP in early May

High inventory levels have also weighed on MEG prices Inventory levels were above 900000 tonnes from early May onward rising to 938000 tonnes by in late March Most market participants deemed inventory levels above 900000 tonnes to be high

The increase in inventory levels in May were largely attributed to the arrival of Middle East shipments which were previously due for arrival in April

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian MEG markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 27Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSETHYLENE

NE ASIA ETHYLENE H2 OUTLOOK HINGES ON NEW SUPPLY SM PLANTBy Yeow Pei Lin

Northeast (NE) Asiarsquos ethylene (C2) second-half 2018 outlook is uncertain as several crackers are scheduled for maintenance but such production losses could be offset by the start up of a new plant and cargoes from outside the region

More than 20 crackers in Asia are slated to undergo maintenance in 2018 with the estimated capacity losses totalling more than 185m tonnes Most of the turnarounds in the first half of the year were concentrated in Japan ndash a key exporter to China

However several more companies are to carry out turnarounds in June and the rest of the year

The impact on the regional balance will depend on the start-up progress of a new facility in South Korea and on whether the strong exports from southeast Asia and Europe in the first half of 2018 will continue

Shipments from Yeosu South Korea will start to slow down in August ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at complexes in that region

Exports will recover by December when Lotte Chemical brings on-stream an added capacity of 200000 tonnesyear at its Yeosu cracker

The facility will undergo an expansion during a turnaround from late September to October

Shipments from Ulsan another petrochemical cluster in South Korea will grow in the second half of 2018

Newcomer S-Oil is expected to begin commercial operations at its residue upgrading complex (RUC) in Onsan in the second half of June

The companyrsquos entire ethylene output of up

to around 200000 tonnesyear is intended for the merchant market as it does not have any downstream plants

Exports from southeast Asian producers will continue to be driven by the higher value from ethylene sales in the ethylene versus polyethylene (PE) trade-off

There will however be supply constraints

Four crackers in the region will undergo

maintenance and the affected producers include ExxonMobil and PTT Global Chemicals (PTTGC) that were regular exporters in the first half of 2018

Exports from Europe will likely be influenced by the performance of the PE sector

The outlook for the PE market in Europe is uncertain given the growing prospect of competitively-priced exports from the new US plants

Back to Quick Navigation | 28Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Ethylene costs in the US have been at low levels since early 2018 as production growth outpaces that for consumption

Since late 2017 about 3m tonnesyear of new ethylene capacity and about 35m tonnesyear of new PE capacity have started up in the US

The new crackers have been running well but several of the new PE plants struggled to reach full operating rates

Exports from Saudi Arabia are expected to be constrained by increased domestic consumption

Petro Rabigh announced in April that the last few plants in its Phase 2 project including a 75000 tonneyear ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) unit have started up

The companyrsquos ethylene exports could fall further in the second half of 2018 following the completion of its PE plant maintenance shutdowns earlier in the year

Chinarsquos import demand is poised for further growth when a new 260000 tonneyear styrene monomer (SM) plant starts up in the third quarter as planned

Anhui Haoyuan Chemical will be operating the unit in Fuyang Anhui on a standalone basis as its plans to build a methanol-to-olefin (MTO) plant have been put on hold amid high methanol prices

The plant will require around 78000 tonnes of ethylene annually to operate at maximum capacity

Based on the above factors it was not immediately clear if the ethylene prices in the second half will follow the volatile trend they displayed in the first five months of 2018

NE Asia spot ethylene prices were volatile from January to May as the impact of a heavy regional cracker turnaround schedule and strong Chinese demand was at times outweighed by strong exports from southeast Asia the Middle East and Europe

The market started the year at above a two and a half year high of $1415tonne CFR (cost amp freight) NE Asia in early January

Subsequent transacted prices fluctuated within a low $1200stonne to mid $1300stonne CFR NE Asia band in the five months ended 31 May

Prices in the first quarter were initially weighed down by ample supply from producers in the Middle East and Asia due to a series of PE plant shutdowns - both planned and unplanned

That was despite strong pre-Lunar New Year holiday restocking activities in China

Demand was bolstered by the start up of a 500000 tonneyear non-integrated SM plant and generally healthy downstream margins for producers outside the PE sector

End-users were also keen to build up their inventories because of the slow progress in their 2018 term contract discussions ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at facilities of key exporters in the region

In addition a major ethylene oxide (EO) maker was seeking more import cargoes following a disruption in supply from its upstream MTO unit The plant was shut twice between late November and the first half of February because of high feedstock methanol costs

The market recovered in early March in line with the start of the annual cracker turnaround season in northeast Asia where

scheduled capacity losses in 2018 will be overall higher than the previous year

That explained why the countryrsquos exports from January to April slumped by 14 year-on-year to 201274 tonnes

In late April northeast Asiarsquos spot prices fell again after a surprisingly large quantity of deep-sea spot cargoes were sold into Asia for delivery between the middle of May and the first half of June

There were at least 55000-60000 tonnes of cargoes from Europe in addition to 11000 tonnes of US supply for that delivery period Europe was in a long position because of derivative maintenance shutdowns and production problems

Continued strong exports from southeast Asia owing to downstream production issues and the weak performance of the linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) market contributed to the downbeat sentiment

The ample supply outweighed Chinarsquos robust import demand

Buying interest in China was strong for April and May arrival cargoes on the back

Back to Quick Navigation | 29Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

of healthy downstream margins for certain downstream markets such as SM EO and monoethylene glycol (MEG)

Ethylene buyers in China were also keen to book deep-sea cargoes to offset the expected regional production losses from cracker turnarounds

Prices rebounded quickly in mid-May

aided by a bullish SM market and reduced domestic supply

Some MTO operators lowered production in May as high feedstock methanol costs led to squeezed margins while a key producer in east China lowered its cracker run rates unexpectedly

Sharp increases in feedstock naphtha costs

which tracked gains on crude oil futures also helped set a floor to the earlier price declines

By early June spot ethylene prices had touched a 20-week high raising questions on whether the market will see similar price volatility in the second half of 2018

Producers will turn hawkish if the outlook for crude and naphtha markets remains upbeat

Back to Quick Navigation | 30Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSPROPYLENE

TIGHT NE ASIA PROPYLENE SUPPLY TO LIMIT H2 PRICE FLUCTUATIONSBy Joson Ng

Tight propylene (C3) supply in northeast Asia amid a heavy turnaround schedule in 2018 will continue supporting regional prices of the material into the second half

Sellers are likely to continue passing on firmer costs to buyers which are wary of October when heavy propylene production losses are expected

Buyersrsquo resistance in the key China market would keep any further increase in propylene prices in check with some downstream producers considering cutting output due to high feedstock costs

At the start of June propylene prices have weakened ending the strong general uptrend since end-March amid weakness in Chinarsquos domestic market as demand softened due to turnarounds at downstream polypropylene (PP) plants

However the downward pressure on regional prices may be temporary as overall supply in Asia is expected to be tight

In early June spot propylene prices in northeast Asia were about 9 higher from the start of 2018 according to ICIS data

The year started on a bullish note fuelled by a heavier cracker turnaround schedule compared with 2017 and higher premium levels concluded for contract cargoes

The uptrend was sustained into February due to restocking activities in various import markets in northeast Asia before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February

Before the holidays some South Korean producers were convinced the market will experience supply shortage as both GS Caltexrsquos fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity and Yeochun NCCrsquos (YNCC) cracker ndash which can produce 280000 tonnesyear of propylene ndash were due for maintenance in February through to April

But propylene prices surprisingly weakened from 9 February to end-March without demand support from Chinarsquos weak PP market which struggled through sluggish sales and high inventory after the countryrsquos week-long Lunar New Year holiday

A renewed wave of scheduled turnarounds at regional plants tightened supply and drove up propylene prices in April and May

In Taiwan Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) took its residue fluid catalytic

Back to Quick Navigation | 31Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

cracking (RFCC) unit with a 350000 tonneyear propylene capacity off stream from 1 March to mid-April while CPC Corp shut its 100000 tonneyear FCC unit on 10 April and restarted in early June

In South Korea GS Caltex also had a turnaround at its FCC unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity from 19 February to 5 April

SK Advanced shut its propane dehydrogenated (PDH) unit with 600000 tonneyear propylene capacity on 21 April to early May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian propylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 32Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

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ICIS price forecast reportsSupply demand and price trends at a glance

ICIS price forecast reports provide a clear view of prices and supply and demand trends for the next 12 months Packed with vital information the report includes everything you need to assess where the market is heading and the impact or opportunity that presents for your business

To find out more or take a trial visit wwwiciscompriceforecast

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ICIS price forecasts are now available on the Dashboard channel using the Price Forecast Window which will enable users to

n Chart the price forecast against the last (rolling) twelve months of related price history

n Plot the last 12 months to view forecast progression and ICIS forecast accuracy

n Convert data into different currencies and units and download this data into Excel in order to easily enter into your own calculations

How price forecast reports can help youn Understand the marketUse ICIS price forecast reports to understand where the market is heading and identify the risks and the opportunities for your business What are the major demand developments for your product n Safeguard commercial decisionsUse market information to make better-informed business decisions relating to supply and demand Learn about changes in market capacities What factors will affect supply for you n Budgeting and planningWhether you are planning how much you will be spending in the short-to medium or even long term use the price forecast reports to help assess future prices for your product What will the price of your product be in six monthsrsquo time

Price forecast reports currently

available

Available as price forecast windows only

Polypropylene

Polyethylene

Benzene

StyrenePolystyrene

Methanol

Ethylene

Propylene

Styrene

Asia Europe US Global

3

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3

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OLEFINSBUTADIENE

ASIA BD TO FLUCTUATE IN H2 AS SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE SHIFTSBy Helen Yan

Asiarsquos butadiene (BD) spot prices for July shipments are likely to face downward pressure but any price downtrend is likely to reverse when cracker turnarounds start to kick in from September onwards

BD prices are expected to be weighed down before seeing support again in the third quarter as the supply and demand balance shifts during this period

The fourth quarter will likely see support for BD prices although the increases may be tempered by resistance from the downstream synthetic rubber (SR) makers to any significant price hikes

The busy cracker turnaround season in September-November will likely see supply tightening at the same time that demand is expected to pick up during this period

Several crackers and BD units including South Korearsquos Lotte Chemical LG Chem and Chinarsquos Shanghai Secco and Maoming Petrochemical are scheduled to shut during

the September to November time frame

In the near term BD spot prices are likely to continue to trend lower as demand wanes while supply at the same time is expected to lengthen due to an influx of deep-sea cargoes and regional cracker restarts

More than 15000 tonnes of deep-sea cargoes from EU are expected to arrive in Asia in June and July at the same time that crackers in Asia including Indiarsquos Haldia Petrochemical and Indonesiarsquos Chandra Asri resume their production following their maintenance shutdowns

On 8 June spot prices fell to $1725tonne CFR (cost amp freight) northeast (NE) Asia the second consecutive week of decline after spiralling upwards in the two months since early April

BD spot prices had increased by more than 40 since early April peaking at $1800tonne CFR NE Asia on 25 May

Strong demand from derivative acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) makers which were running their plants at optimal rates had bolstered the BD price upsurge during this period

However derivative styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) and polybutadiene rubber (PBR) producers the key consumers of BD cut their production output given the continued erosion in margins

Several major SBR and PBR producers said their margins had fallen into negative territory and retreated from the BD spot market in June

Chinese spot appetite in particular tapered off as domestic BD prices were lower compared with the US dollar-denominated import prices

In China Hangzhou Zhechen Jilin Petrochemical Zhejiang Transfar and Shen Hua Chemical were some of the SBR and PBR plants that are shut for maintenance in June and July

Several SBR and PBR plants in Taiwan and South Korea were also running at lower rates following the 40 BD price spike in the two months from early April to end-May

In South Korea major SR producer Korea Kumho Petrochemical PC was running its SBR and PBR plants at reduced rates

Back to Quick Navigation | 33Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian butadiene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 34Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Similarly Taiwanrsquos TSRC also cut the production output of its SBR and PBR plants

The outlook for the fourth quarter is expected to see a different turn of events with SBR and PBR plants resuming their production and ramping up their operating rates while supply during the last quarter is expected to tighten from the heavy cracker turnaround season

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYETHYLENE (PE)

SOUTHEAST ASIA PE MARKET FACES LONGER H2 SUPPLY WEAK DEMANDBy Felita Widjaja

Southeast Asiarsquos polyethylene (PE) market may be facing longer supply in the second half hinging on how the US-China trade spat plays out amid the regionrsquos weakening demand for imports

Global PE trade flows will be affected should China the biggest importer of spot PE cargoes in the world decide to impose retaliatory 25 tariff on US cargoes

Southeast Asia as an alternative buying region might be hard pressed to absorb additional supply from the US where massive PE capacities recently started up which were meant to cater to huge Chinese demand

Around 5m tonnes of additional US PE capacities are expected from several major projects including those in the pipeline to start up within the second half of 2018

China primarily imports PE cargoes from Asia and the Middle East while the US is its sixth leading PE supplier in 2017

ldquoEventually more substantial and regular volume of US [PE] cargoes are expected to be traded in Asia in the second half of the year as we have yet to see them in the first half of this yearrdquo said a regional trader

Any changes in trade flows would pose challenges to US suppliers in the short term as they would need to revamp their logistics and distribution channels to redirect cargoes to other markets

Suppliers from the Middle East meanwhile might take the opportunity to supply more cargoes to China and would mean fewer volumes available to the southeast Asian market

The Middle East is southeast Asiarsquos major PE supplier

Demand for PE imports in southeast Asia has been weak amid lower prices in

Back to Quick Navigation | 35Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

the domestic markets as in the case of Thailand

ldquoThai traders are not keen to import as local prices are more competitive so they do not have the margin to sell the imported cargoes in local market Only some converters who need specific cargoes continue to importrdquo said a local Thai trader

Malaysia and Indonesia with predominantly Muslim populations have seen market activity slow down since mid-May when the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan started Ramadan ends with the Eid ul-Fitr holiday on 15 June

The Indonesian government has declared a longer Eid-ul Fitr holiday this year from 11-20 June

Markets in Singapore and the Philippines will be closed for the mid-June holiday as well

With supply expected to become long some market players expect regional PE prices in July and August to ease from

June with restocking activities expected to kick in towards the end of the third quarter

In the first half of 2018 southeast Asiarsquos average prices for commodity PE were largely stable to firm owing to suppliersrsquo relatively comfortable-to-tight supply for most of the period

At the start of June high density polyethylene (HDPE) film grade prices averaged $1395tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia while linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) film were at $1210tonne CFR SE Asia and $1265tonne CFR SE Asia respectively according to ICIS data

Prices had spiked in the first quarter as suppliers were holding comfortable-to-tight inventory as several regional producers have scheduled turnarounds at their plants in March Production issues and shutdowns in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia also limited availability of imports to southeast Asia during this period

Supply for HDPE film was particularly tight as some producers from the Middle East as well as Asia switched their focus into making HDPE pipe grade amid robust demand and better netbacks

The price uptrend across most PE grades could not be sustained in the second quarter although prices remained relatively stable-to-firm

The depreciation of local currencies in southeast Asia against the US dollar in most of the second quarter was also curbing overall demand for imports A weaker currency makes US dollar-denominated imports expensive

ldquoIndonesian buyers have not been buying much cargoes as the market slowed down during Ramadan and also because of weak rupiah which led the central bank to increase interest rate to limit the depreciationrdquo said a regional producer

CHINA PE IMPORTS TO STAY STRONG AMID DOMESTIC PLANT TURNAROUNDS By Angie Li

Chinarsquos polyethylene (PE) imports are expected to remain strong for the rest of the year after posting record volumes in January to April 2018 amid scheduled turnarounds at domestic facilities

Buyers in China have been accumulating imported PE cargoes as these were priced lower compared futures prices since the start of the year

More cargoes will be available to China as new capacities in the US are expected to boost production

For the month of May the countryrsquos PE imports are projected to reach 12m tonnes higher than the monthly average in the first four months of 2018

In January to April 2018 its PE imports volumes totaled 447m tonnes up by 12 from the previous corresponding period according to industry sources

The import volumes were making up for the production losses in the domestic market due to scheduled turnarounds

On 1 June low density PE (LDPE) imports were assessed at $1155-1180tonne linear low density PE (LLDPE) stood at $1150-1170tonne while high density PE (HDPE) film products were at $1340-1400tonne according to ICIS data

The prices have increased 15-62 from end-March but the gains came in lower than market playersrsquo expectations considering the heavy production loss due to turnarounds from April

Back to Quick Navigation | 36Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

An estimated 500000 tonnes are expected to be shaved in the second quarter due to scheduled maintenance at domestic facilities according ICIS data

ldquoWe thought the hefty plant turnarounds in the second quarter should lead to a surge in PE prices but the LDPE and LLDPE prices were less than satisfactory although HDPE prices [were] highrdquo said an east China-based trader referring to both the import and domestic PE prices

Strong imports amid hedging activities bloated the total supply in China in January to April to 998m tonnes up by 8 from the previous corresponding period with supply of LDPE and LLDPE up by 14 and 8 respectively market sources said

Imports of HDPE inched up by 2 over the same period given the gradersquos comparatively higher prices compared with LLDPE and LDPE

Increased availability due to recent capacity expansions and start-ups in Asia the Middle East also fuels Chinarsquos appetite for import cargoes

In the first quarter of 2018 additional cargoes from Saudi Arabia were mostly from Sadara Chemical which started up its 750000 tonneyear swing plant and 350000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Al Jubail during late 2016 and early 2017 respectively

Cargoes of Iran origin augmented the total volume from the UAE as market players try to go around the financial sanctions on Tehran Kordestan Petrochemicalrsquos 300000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Iran came on stream in March 2017

UAErsquos Borouge has also ramped up pipe and HDPE film exports to China during the period according to a supplier in the Middle East

Meanwhile PE imports from Singapore surged 38 year on year while those from India more than doubled to 127000 tonnes according to China Customs data

The ban on waste plastics implemented in China in the year also bolstered imports of virgin PE Some waste plastics processed overseas and then re-entered the market as virgin products but these volumes were limited

Last year China has imported 194m tonnes of PE waste plastics while

volumes in 2018 will be negligible with the implemention of the ban

Chinarsquos PE production this year is expected to increase by around 7 to about 17m tonnes in 2018 with imports projected to grow by 102 to around 13m tonnes according to a source from state-owned petrochemical giant PetroChina

Domestic demand for PE on the other hand is forecast to grow by 8 this year mainly from the packaging and pipe markets

Chinarsquos ongoing campaign to switch to using gas for power generation instead of coal is expected to continue boosting demand for PE gas pipes this year

The packaging industry will also drive up PE consumption underpinned by growth in electronic commerce Chinarsquos express delivery volumes reached 137bn packages during January-April 2018 based on data from the recent China Express Industry Development Conference in May

Back to Quick Navigation | 37Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 38Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

By Jonathan Lopez

ICIS NewsThe leading news service for real-time ground breaking news and analysis on the global petrochemicals markets

The ICIS News services give you unrivalled access to the most in-depth stories impacting the petrochemicals markets influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions

Our team of global editors are reporting around the clock to bring you the latest news and analysis so that you get the full picture of market and pricing developments first providing you with invaluable foresight to take advantage of every opportunity and to stay ahead of your competitors

With ICIS News you will be the first to read

Breaking news on the chemical markets that will impact your business

News on market moves deals and announcements that will affect your organisation

Force majeures closures and developments that influence your commodity prices

Expert analysis on industry trends and hot topics ndash know whatrsquos happening and why

Searchable archive with over 14 million articles from the past 10 years

Chemical Business News Base (CBNB) is a premium resource available on ICIS News It provides you with an extensive external source of upstream and downstream petrochemical news in summarised snapshots so you can quickly and easily get the latest updates on whatrsquos important to you

CBNB offers readers

Fast and consistent coverage on news facts figures from the upstream and downstream petrochemicals industry

Access to over 700 news sources including technical and trade journals company literature market research reports stockbroker reports books and directories

User-friendly search functionality to find articles most relevant to you from around the globe

Quick and easy-to-read summarised snapshots of articles with option to access full articles from the original source

ICIS Chemical Business digital magazine (ICB) Our global team of experts digests and summarises the key issues and their potential impact on the chemical markets offering a comprehensive overview of the key developments that matter most-along with informed opinion and in-depth analysis

ICB features include

In-depth insight into chemical price changes and their impact on the markets

Understand the detail behind the headline news stories

Find out about supply amp demand trends and the factors impacting them

Get the complete picture of the chemical markets ndash all in one e-magazine

Easy access via e-magazine and premium magazine website

Find out more wwwiciscomnews

ICIS News offers access to additional sources including the ICIS Chemical Business Magazine and Chemical Business News Base (CBNB)

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYPROPYLENE (PP)

SE ASIA PP PRICES MAY COME UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 AS SUPPLY LENGTHENSBy Leanne Tan

Southeast Asiarsquos polypropylene (PP) market may come under pressure in the second half of the year on account of lengthening regional supply and weak downstream demand

Spot prices have been on the rise for most of May buoyed by bullish sentiment in the Chinese market and firm upstream feedstock costs

Margins for PP makers have been lower on average compared with levels in the previous year

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refinery amp Petrochemicals is scheduled to start up its 400000 tonneyear PP production unit in the third quarter The project was initially scheduled to start up in the first quarter of 2018

While domestic demand will continue to outstrip local production the countryrsquos reliance on imports may be diminished when the new plant starts up

Converters in the country have been opting to keep inventories lean in the short term amid expectations that prices may eventually weaken when more domestic supply becomes available

ldquoBuyers donrsquot want to buy too much import cargoes now not just because prices are high but also because there will be more locally-produced materials very soonrdquo a Vietnamese trader said

In Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan is expected to start commercial production at its expanded PP facility in Pasir Gudang in June or July The plantrsquos capacity will be raised by 200000 tonnesyear from 400000 tonnesyear

Import availabilities from South Korea are expected to lengthen in the medium-to-long term with S-Oil expected to complete an olefin downstream complex (ODC) at its Onsan refinery in Ulsan which will include a

405000 tonneyear PP capacity

On the demand front weakness is likely to persist in the second half with converters and end-users likely to continue buying spot cargoes on a hand-to-mouth basis

Indonesiarsquos demand in particular has been below expectations since the start of 2018 and this is likely to continue in the second half of the year according to market players

Back to Quick Navigation | 39Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Some players said import demand for dutiable cargoes may increase in the second half of the year as this is typically when the government issues duty exemption facilities

The duty exemption facilities are issued on a yearly basis which enable converters to import some PP volumes without extra cost

In Malaysia the removal of the 6 goods and services tax (GST) so far has had no immediate impact on the PP market although there are some expectations the move could potentially boost demand in the consumer market further down the road

In Vietnam demand for PP flat yarn has entered a seasonal lull from May to early July and will not pick up until August when the summer harvest begins

PP is widely used in the manufacture of woven sacks (for rice sacks) flexible packaging carpets household appliances and automotive parts

Spot PP prices in southeast Asia have been an uptrend for most of the first half

The PP market begun the year on a bullish note with spot prices surging by almost 10 over the course of two months all-origins PP flat yarn prices peaked at $1295tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia on 2 March

Healthy demand in China helped to provide support to spot prices in southeast Asia in the first quarter with a tight global spot supply leading to further price escalations

Some suppliers pulled back from the southeast Asian spot market to capitalise on better netbacks in other countries including Japan and Pakistan leading to further curtailed spot availability in southeast Asia

The market rally started to lose steam in early March amid subdued demand and a build-up of domestic inventories in China after the Lunar New Year holidays

The bearish sentiment soon spilled over into southeast Asia with Chinese suppliers pushing some volumes into southeast Asia amid an open arbitrage window

Vietnam remains the market of choice for Chinese exporters and PP import prices in the country plummeted as the result of the lengthened spot availability

However the bearish run was short-lived and prices soon bottomed out in early April

Bullish momentum in the upstream crude and naphtha markets propelled spot prices of polymers higher

Despite lacklustre downstream demand price hikes in April and May were commonplace as producers sought higher asking prices in view of narrower margins

TIGHT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT CHINA PP MARKET DESPITE WEAK DEMANDBy Dora Xue

Tight supply would buoy up Chinarsquos polypropylene (PP) prices in the near term despite weak downstream demand

The market is expecting heavy production losses following recent unexpected outages at five domestic facilities from May and scheduled turnarounds at other plants

In the week ended on 1 June domestic prices for PP flat yarn in east China were assessed at Chinese yuan (CNY) 9075tonne after a steady increase from early April according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos import prices for the same material stood at $1245tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China largely tracking movement in the domestic market over the past two months according to ICIS data

The strong PP prices have also started to deter buyers from purchasing more spot cargoes

ldquoPP prices are too high We donrsquot want to store too much in our warehouserdquo a buyer said

Downstream demand typically goes on a lull in June and July but any downward pressure on prices will be negated by a further tightening of supply as major plants will be taken off line for maintenance

ldquoWhen the maintenance season finishes in late June [PP] prices may start to go downrdquo a trader said

Demand is considered weakest at Qingdao in the eastern Shandong province due to government-mandated production cuts and logistics restrictions ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (SCO Summit) on 9-10 June

As of 1 June the combined polyolefin inventories of Chinese petrochemical majors Sinopec and PetroChina have declined back to normal levels of 700000 tonnes from a high of 1m tonnes in early March market sources said

Import supply to China may not improve in the short term as suppliers still deem other

Back to Quick Navigation | 40Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

Back to Quick Navigation | 43Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

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PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 25: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

In Europe BP Chemical on 15 April declared a force majeure at its Belgium PTA unit and a second force majeure on 17 May PKN Orlen on 23 April declared a force majeure at its Wloclawek PTA unit in Poland which was subsequently lifted on 2 May with spot cargoes from the plant limited until after a planned maintenance in SeptemberOctober 2018

Within Asia the southeastern region has had PTA plant outages and had to procure cargoes from the northeast in the preceding two months

Regional supply tightened further with the unexpected shutdown of Hanwha General Chemicalrsquos 700000 tonneyear PTA unit in Daesan prompting a force majeure declaration on 21 May

In the first half of 2018 strong growth in demand in the downstream polyester markets in Asia particularly China supported the rally in PTA prices amid tight supply

Downstream polyester markets were enjoying positive margins keeping demand for feedstock PTA healthy

In the key China market operating rates at polyester units were higher compared with the previous year

The countryrsquos PTA production losses in January-June 2018 on the other hand were estimated at around 134m tonnes due to planned and unplanned outages

Asiarsquos PTA producers were largely enjoying healthy margins on the back of steady demand growth in the downstream polyester markets Firmer upstream energy

and feedstock PX prices have also buoyed PTA prices

In January to May 2018 Brent crude traded at $6692-7616bbl up by about 25 year

on year while PX prices were at $938-994tonne representing a 15 increase over the same period

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian purified terephthalic acid (PTA)) markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 23Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPOLYETHYLENE TEREPHTHALATE (PET)

ASIA PET TO REMAIN FIRM IN Q3 AS TIGHT SUPPLY SUPPORT PRICESBy Hazel Goh

Asian polyethylene terephthalate (PET) market is likely to remain firm in the third quarter on the back of tight supply a trend that has supported prices so far in 2018

Recently PET tight supply is a result of production cuts in Asia and Europe that have not had a clear estimated date of resuming normal operations

China Resources Packaging had cut production at its PET lines in Changzhou by 50 following notice from the government to reduce pollution in end-May It is not known for how long the production cuts will remain in place

In Europe there had been feedstock purified terephthalic acid (PTA) supply tightness leading to recent PET production cuts and force majeure by Novapet and JBF respectively

Many buyers had been purchasing on a need-to basis expecting that firm prices are unsustainable and will come down Subsequently they did not stock up cargoes ahead of the peak summer demand season for countries in the northern hemisphere

The reality turned out different and they had to accept higher prices as production cuts kept the supply tight

PET used to track feedstock price movements closely as it had been an oversupplied market and producers typically operate on thin margins

The oversupply situation changed and tightness was first felt in the third quarter of 2017 when plant closures by JBF RAK in the UAE and Belgium and by Mossi amp Ghisolfi (MampG) in the US Mexico and Brazil following financial tightness in the two PET-producing companies

Hurricane Harvey that hit the US in the third quarter led to further production cuts in the US

Back to Quick Navigation | 24Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 1

From then on supply remained tight as the plant under JBF RAK in the UAE and the former MampG plant in the US that had been acquired by Far Eastern remained shut for extended period of time even into 2018

Market players previously had concerns about where China will export its material when final anti-dumping duties (ADD) - heard to be at the same level as thepreliminary duties of 398-530 - wereimposed on its cargoes into Japan inJanuary

Japan was the top exporting destination for Chinese cargoes before the ADD following which the exports dropped drastically

While other producers such as Taiwanese southeast Asian Indian and South Korean producers sold more volumes into Japan Chinese makers sold to other markets that were relinquished by the other producers

Table 1 shows a significant difference between 2016 and 2017 in Chinarsquos export volumes to key destinations from the January-to-March period

Ranked by volume starting with largestvolume as 1

There is an ongoing anti-dumping duty (ADD) investigation by the US on PET cargoes from Brazil Pakistan Indonesia Taiwan and South Korea

The Commerce Department issued the preliminary dumping rates for Indonesia at 1316 South Korea at 881-10141 and Taiwan at 902-1189 in May Final determinations will be issued by 8 November

Even so some producers from the countries under investigation continued to receive buying enquiries from the US amid the current tight supply situation

There will be some upcoming new capacities expected in Q3 as shown in table 2 that may bring about a more balanced supply to meet the demand

The US plant acquired by Far Eastern is estimated to restart in June-July which should also ease the supply tightness

Even with the new capacities and plant restarts market participants think it is unlikely that PET market will return to the oversupply situation seen in the previous years

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian PET markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 25Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 2

Our English-language report coverage includes

Styrene MEG Propylene

BTX Methanol Base Oil

BPA PE MTBE

Phenol PP Mixed AromaticsAcetone Oxo-Alcohol

Trusted industryintelligence for Chinarsquoscommodity marketsDevelopments in Chinarsquos petrochemicals industrycontinue to affect the global marketplace It istherefore vital for domestic and internationalmarket players to keep track of changes withinthe country to know where opportunities lie

ICIS has long been recognised as a reliablesource of information our locally-based expertscompile reports and analyses in English tosupport industry participants dealing with Chinamarkets or seeking to trade or invest

Pricing informationOur pricing data provide key insights into pricetrends in China to support your short-termdecision-making negotiations and analyses

bull Import and export spot and contract pricesbull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity

and upstreamdownstream marketsbull Data on inventory levels and price marginsbull Plant and production news

Petrochemicals Analytics SolutionsProviding our customers with a 360-degree view of the Chinese market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker - real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for thenext 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics - key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock anddo wnstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlooks

Available for key chemical commodities

wwwiciscomchina

Discover how we can meet your market information needs

enquiryiciscom

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESMONOETHYLENE GLYCOL (MEG)

ASIA MEG TO SEE DEMAND TAPERING LOWER SUPPLY IN EARLY H2By Eric Su

The Asian monoethylene glycol (MEG) market could see demand slowing down from the end of June while supply will be reduced from a number of plant turnarounds

Inventories are expected to decline in June after offtake rates at Chinese main ports rose sharply in the last two weeks of May because of an uptick in demand from downstream polyester buyers

Demand for MEG is also expected to remain strong in the first half of June boosted by high polyester production rates of above 85 and modestly low inventory levels

A slowdown in demand may take place in the second half of June as the traditional manufacturing peak period nears its end in July

Meanwhile supply conditions could tighten because of the plant turnarounds in northeast Asia

However supply from the Middle East will likely resume to normal levels given that there were no further delay in shipments in May

MEG prices in Asia have registered year-on-year growth rates in the months to June this year

MEG prices have mostly hovered above $900tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China Main Port (CMP) while prices were mostly below $900tonne CFR CMP in 2017

Prices have been volatile in 2018 with major price swings seen on a near monthly basis since February

MEG prices in first quarter of 2018 continued the uptrend seen in the fourth quarter of 2017 rising to $1030tonne CFR CMP in early March from $922tonne CFR

CMP in late December as the higher-than-expected growth in downstream polyester fuelled bullish market sentiment

Polyester growth in 2017 was estimated at above 10 beating an originally bearish expectation of 2-3

A price downtrend was observed in March with the MEG weekly average price losing nearly 10 of its value to $929tonne CFR CMP by end-March

The price decline coincided with a sharp influx of imported cargoes which was likely a result of over-procurement in January

Back to Quick Navigation | 26Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

and February when prices were trending upwards

March 2018 import volumes rose to nearly 1m tonnes a record three-year high according to official China customs data

MEG prices rebounded in April rising by around 9 from end-March to $1014tonne CFR CMP by end-April ahead of the traditional peak period for the downstream polyester sector The average polyester production rate rose to above 85 during the period

MEG also achieved its to-date weekly peak of $1042tonne CFR CMP in the week ending 20 April

Supply tightness was also observed in the Chinese domestic market because of shipment delays from the Middle East and logistical issues at China main ports over the same period

The lack of availability of prompt cargoes also led to an atypical price spread between April and May delivery parcels

Normally the spread between arrived-at-port and far-term arrival cargoes is at $0-10tonne CFR CMP but this widened to $20-30tonne CFR CMP This drove concerns of sharp price adjustments in May once April deliveries were fulfilled

These concerns came true as MEG prices

began to slide in May MEG weekly prices stood at $928tonne CFR CMP in the last week of May falling from $1003tonne CFR CMP in early May

High inventory levels have also weighed on MEG prices Inventory levels were above 900000 tonnes from early May onward rising to 938000 tonnes by in late March Most market participants deemed inventory levels above 900000 tonnes to be high

The increase in inventory levels in May were largely attributed to the arrival of Middle East shipments which were previously due for arrival in April

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian MEG markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 27Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSETHYLENE

NE ASIA ETHYLENE H2 OUTLOOK HINGES ON NEW SUPPLY SM PLANTBy Yeow Pei Lin

Northeast (NE) Asiarsquos ethylene (C2) second-half 2018 outlook is uncertain as several crackers are scheduled for maintenance but such production losses could be offset by the start up of a new plant and cargoes from outside the region

More than 20 crackers in Asia are slated to undergo maintenance in 2018 with the estimated capacity losses totalling more than 185m tonnes Most of the turnarounds in the first half of the year were concentrated in Japan ndash a key exporter to China

However several more companies are to carry out turnarounds in June and the rest of the year

The impact on the regional balance will depend on the start-up progress of a new facility in South Korea and on whether the strong exports from southeast Asia and Europe in the first half of 2018 will continue

Shipments from Yeosu South Korea will start to slow down in August ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at complexes in that region

Exports will recover by December when Lotte Chemical brings on-stream an added capacity of 200000 tonnesyear at its Yeosu cracker

The facility will undergo an expansion during a turnaround from late September to October

Shipments from Ulsan another petrochemical cluster in South Korea will grow in the second half of 2018

Newcomer S-Oil is expected to begin commercial operations at its residue upgrading complex (RUC) in Onsan in the second half of June

The companyrsquos entire ethylene output of up

to around 200000 tonnesyear is intended for the merchant market as it does not have any downstream plants

Exports from southeast Asian producers will continue to be driven by the higher value from ethylene sales in the ethylene versus polyethylene (PE) trade-off

There will however be supply constraints

Four crackers in the region will undergo

maintenance and the affected producers include ExxonMobil and PTT Global Chemicals (PTTGC) that were regular exporters in the first half of 2018

Exports from Europe will likely be influenced by the performance of the PE sector

The outlook for the PE market in Europe is uncertain given the growing prospect of competitively-priced exports from the new US plants

Back to Quick Navigation | 28Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Ethylene costs in the US have been at low levels since early 2018 as production growth outpaces that for consumption

Since late 2017 about 3m tonnesyear of new ethylene capacity and about 35m tonnesyear of new PE capacity have started up in the US

The new crackers have been running well but several of the new PE plants struggled to reach full operating rates

Exports from Saudi Arabia are expected to be constrained by increased domestic consumption

Petro Rabigh announced in April that the last few plants in its Phase 2 project including a 75000 tonneyear ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) unit have started up

The companyrsquos ethylene exports could fall further in the second half of 2018 following the completion of its PE plant maintenance shutdowns earlier in the year

Chinarsquos import demand is poised for further growth when a new 260000 tonneyear styrene monomer (SM) plant starts up in the third quarter as planned

Anhui Haoyuan Chemical will be operating the unit in Fuyang Anhui on a standalone basis as its plans to build a methanol-to-olefin (MTO) plant have been put on hold amid high methanol prices

The plant will require around 78000 tonnes of ethylene annually to operate at maximum capacity

Based on the above factors it was not immediately clear if the ethylene prices in the second half will follow the volatile trend they displayed in the first five months of 2018

NE Asia spot ethylene prices were volatile from January to May as the impact of a heavy regional cracker turnaround schedule and strong Chinese demand was at times outweighed by strong exports from southeast Asia the Middle East and Europe

The market started the year at above a two and a half year high of $1415tonne CFR (cost amp freight) NE Asia in early January

Subsequent transacted prices fluctuated within a low $1200stonne to mid $1300stonne CFR NE Asia band in the five months ended 31 May

Prices in the first quarter were initially weighed down by ample supply from producers in the Middle East and Asia due to a series of PE plant shutdowns - both planned and unplanned

That was despite strong pre-Lunar New Year holiday restocking activities in China

Demand was bolstered by the start up of a 500000 tonneyear non-integrated SM plant and generally healthy downstream margins for producers outside the PE sector

End-users were also keen to build up their inventories because of the slow progress in their 2018 term contract discussions ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at facilities of key exporters in the region

In addition a major ethylene oxide (EO) maker was seeking more import cargoes following a disruption in supply from its upstream MTO unit The plant was shut twice between late November and the first half of February because of high feedstock methanol costs

The market recovered in early March in line with the start of the annual cracker turnaround season in northeast Asia where

scheduled capacity losses in 2018 will be overall higher than the previous year

That explained why the countryrsquos exports from January to April slumped by 14 year-on-year to 201274 tonnes

In late April northeast Asiarsquos spot prices fell again after a surprisingly large quantity of deep-sea spot cargoes were sold into Asia for delivery between the middle of May and the first half of June

There were at least 55000-60000 tonnes of cargoes from Europe in addition to 11000 tonnes of US supply for that delivery period Europe was in a long position because of derivative maintenance shutdowns and production problems

Continued strong exports from southeast Asia owing to downstream production issues and the weak performance of the linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) market contributed to the downbeat sentiment

The ample supply outweighed Chinarsquos robust import demand

Buying interest in China was strong for April and May arrival cargoes on the back

Back to Quick Navigation | 29Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

of healthy downstream margins for certain downstream markets such as SM EO and monoethylene glycol (MEG)

Ethylene buyers in China were also keen to book deep-sea cargoes to offset the expected regional production losses from cracker turnarounds

Prices rebounded quickly in mid-May

aided by a bullish SM market and reduced domestic supply

Some MTO operators lowered production in May as high feedstock methanol costs led to squeezed margins while a key producer in east China lowered its cracker run rates unexpectedly

Sharp increases in feedstock naphtha costs

which tracked gains on crude oil futures also helped set a floor to the earlier price declines

By early June spot ethylene prices had touched a 20-week high raising questions on whether the market will see similar price volatility in the second half of 2018

Producers will turn hawkish if the outlook for crude and naphtha markets remains upbeat

Back to Quick Navigation | 30Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSPROPYLENE

TIGHT NE ASIA PROPYLENE SUPPLY TO LIMIT H2 PRICE FLUCTUATIONSBy Joson Ng

Tight propylene (C3) supply in northeast Asia amid a heavy turnaround schedule in 2018 will continue supporting regional prices of the material into the second half

Sellers are likely to continue passing on firmer costs to buyers which are wary of October when heavy propylene production losses are expected

Buyersrsquo resistance in the key China market would keep any further increase in propylene prices in check with some downstream producers considering cutting output due to high feedstock costs

At the start of June propylene prices have weakened ending the strong general uptrend since end-March amid weakness in Chinarsquos domestic market as demand softened due to turnarounds at downstream polypropylene (PP) plants

However the downward pressure on regional prices may be temporary as overall supply in Asia is expected to be tight

In early June spot propylene prices in northeast Asia were about 9 higher from the start of 2018 according to ICIS data

The year started on a bullish note fuelled by a heavier cracker turnaround schedule compared with 2017 and higher premium levels concluded for contract cargoes

The uptrend was sustained into February due to restocking activities in various import markets in northeast Asia before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February

Before the holidays some South Korean producers were convinced the market will experience supply shortage as both GS Caltexrsquos fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity and Yeochun NCCrsquos (YNCC) cracker ndash which can produce 280000 tonnesyear of propylene ndash were due for maintenance in February through to April

But propylene prices surprisingly weakened from 9 February to end-March without demand support from Chinarsquos weak PP market which struggled through sluggish sales and high inventory after the countryrsquos week-long Lunar New Year holiday

A renewed wave of scheduled turnarounds at regional plants tightened supply and drove up propylene prices in April and May

In Taiwan Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) took its residue fluid catalytic

Back to Quick Navigation | 31Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

cracking (RFCC) unit with a 350000 tonneyear propylene capacity off stream from 1 March to mid-April while CPC Corp shut its 100000 tonneyear FCC unit on 10 April and restarted in early June

In South Korea GS Caltex also had a turnaround at its FCC unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity from 19 February to 5 April

SK Advanced shut its propane dehydrogenated (PDH) unit with 600000 tonneyear propylene capacity on 21 April to early May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian propylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 32Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

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ICIS price forecast reportsSupply demand and price trends at a glance

ICIS price forecast reports provide a clear view of prices and supply and demand trends for the next 12 months Packed with vital information the report includes everything you need to assess where the market is heading and the impact or opportunity that presents for your business

To find out more or take a trial visit wwwiciscompriceforecast

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ICIS price forecasts are now available on the Dashboard channel using the Price Forecast Window which will enable users to

n Chart the price forecast against the last (rolling) twelve months of related price history

n Plot the last 12 months to view forecast progression and ICIS forecast accuracy

n Convert data into different currencies and units and download this data into Excel in order to easily enter into your own calculations

How price forecast reports can help youn Understand the marketUse ICIS price forecast reports to understand where the market is heading and identify the risks and the opportunities for your business What are the major demand developments for your product n Safeguard commercial decisionsUse market information to make better-informed business decisions relating to supply and demand Learn about changes in market capacities What factors will affect supply for you n Budgeting and planningWhether you are planning how much you will be spending in the short-to medium or even long term use the price forecast reports to help assess future prices for your product What will the price of your product be in six monthsrsquo time

Price forecast reports currently

available

Available as price forecast windows only

Polypropylene

Polyethylene

Benzene

StyrenePolystyrene

Methanol

Ethylene

Propylene

Styrene

Asia Europe US Global

3

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3

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OLEFINSBUTADIENE

ASIA BD TO FLUCTUATE IN H2 AS SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE SHIFTSBy Helen Yan

Asiarsquos butadiene (BD) spot prices for July shipments are likely to face downward pressure but any price downtrend is likely to reverse when cracker turnarounds start to kick in from September onwards

BD prices are expected to be weighed down before seeing support again in the third quarter as the supply and demand balance shifts during this period

The fourth quarter will likely see support for BD prices although the increases may be tempered by resistance from the downstream synthetic rubber (SR) makers to any significant price hikes

The busy cracker turnaround season in September-November will likely see supply tightening at the same time that demand is expected to pick up during this period

Several crackers and BD units including South Korearsquos Lotte Chemical LG Chem and Chinarsquos Shanghai Secco and Maoming Petrochemical are scheduled to shut during

the September to November time frame

In the near term BD spot prices are likely to continue to trend lower as demand wanes while supply at the same time is expected to lengthen due to an influx of deep-sea cargoes and regional cracker restarts

More than 15000 tonnes of deep-sea cargoes from EU are expected to arrive in Asia in June and July at the same time that crackers in Asia including Indiarsquos Haldia Petrochemical and Indonesiarsquos Chandra Asri resume their production following their maintenance shutdowns

On 8 June spot prices fell to $1725tonne CFR (cost amp freight) northeast (NE) Asia the second consecutive week of decline after spiralling upwards in the two months since early April

BD spot prices had increased by more than 40 since early April peaking at $1800tonne CFR NE Asia on 25 May

Strong demand from derivative acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) makers which were running their plants at optimal rates had bolstered the BD price upsurge during this period

However derivative styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) and polybutadiene rubber (PBR) producers the key consumers of BD cut their production output given the continued erosion in margins

Several major SBR and PBR producers said their margins had fallen into negative territory and retreated from the BD spot market in June

Chinese spot appetite in particular tapered off as domestic BD prices were lower compared with the US dollar-denominated import prices

In China Hangzhou Zhechen Jilin Petrochemical Zhejiang Transfar and Shen Hua Chemical were some of the SBR and PBR plants that are shut for maintenance in June and July

Several SBR and PBR plants in Taiwan and South Korea were also running at lower rates following the 40 BD price spike in the two months from early April to end-May

In South Korea major SR producer Korea Kumho Petrochemical PC was running its SBR and PBR plants at reduced rates

Back to Quick Navigation | 33Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian butadiene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 34Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Similarly Taiwanrsquos TSRC also cut the production output of its SBR and PBR plants

The outlook for the fourth quarter is expected to see a different turn of events with SBR and PBR plants resuming their production and ramping up their operating rates while supply during the last quarter is expected to tighten from the heavy cracker turnaround season

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYETHYLENE (PE)

SOUTHEAST ASIA PE MARKET FACES LONGER H2 SUPPLY WEAK DEMANDBy Felita Widjaja

Southeast Asiarsquos polyethylene (PE) market may be facing longer supply in the second half hinging on how the US-China trade spat plays out amid the regionrsquos weakening demand for imports

Global PE trade flows will be affected should China the biggest importer of spot PE cargoes in the world decide to impose retaliatory 25 tariff on US cargoes

Southeast Asia as an alternative buying region might be hard pressed to absorb additional supply from the US where massive PE capacities recently started up which were meant to cater to huge Chinese demand

Around 5m tonnes of additional US PE capacities are expected from several major projects including those in the pipeline to start up within the second half of 2018

China primarily imports PE cargoes from Asia and the Middle East while the US is its sixth leading PE supplier in 2017

ldquoEventually more substantial and regular volume of US [PE] cargoes are expected to be traded in Asia in the second half of the year as we have yet to see them in the first half of this yearrdquo said a regional trader

Any changes in trade flows would pose challenges to US suppliers in the short term as they would need to revamp their logistics and distribution channels to redirect cargoes to other markets

Suppliers from the Middle East meanwhile might take the opportunity to supply more cargoes to China and would mean fewer volumes available to the southeast Asian market

The Middle East is southeast Asiarsquos major PE supplier

Demand for PE imports in southeast Asia has been weak amid lower prices in

Back to Quick Navigation | 35Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

the domestic markets as in the case of Thailand

ldquoThai traders are not keen to import as local prices are more competitive so they do not have the margin to sell the imported cargoes in local market Only some converters who need specific cargoes continue to importrdquo said a local Thai trader

Malaysia and Indonesia with predominantly Muslim populations have seen market activity slow down since mid-May when the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan started Ramadan ends with the Eid ul-Fitr holiday on 15 June

The Indonesian government has declared a longer Eid-ul Fitr holiday this year from 11-20 June

Markets in Singapore and the Philippines will be closed for the mid-June holiday as well

With supply expected to become long some market players expect regional PE prices in July and August to ease from

June with restocking activities expected to kick in towards the end of the third quarter

In the first half of 2018 southeast Asiarsquos average prices for commodity PE were largely stable to firm owing to suppliersrsquo relatively comfortable-to-tight supply for most of the period

At the start of June high density polyethylene (HDPE) film grade prices averaged $1395tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia while linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) film were at $1210tonne CFR SE Asia and $1265tonne CFR SE Asia respectively according to ICIS data

Prices had spiked in the first quarter as suppliers were holding comfortable-to-tight inventory as several regional producers have scheduled turnarounds at their plants in March Production issues and shutdowns in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia also limited availability of imports to southeast Asia during this period

Supply for HDPE film was particularly tight as some producers from the Middle East as well as Asia switched their focus into making HDPE pipe grade amid robust demand and better netbacks

The price uptrend across most PE grades could not be sustained in the second quarter although prices remained relatively stable-to-firm

The depreciation of local currencies in southeast Asia against the US dollar in most of the second quarter was also curbing overall demand for imports A weaker currency makes US dollar-denominated imports expensive

ldquoIndonesian buyers have not been buying much cargoes as the market slowed down during Ramadan and also because of weak rupiah which led the central bank to increase interest rate to limit the depreciationrdquo said a regional producer

CHINA PE IMPORTS TO STAY STRONG AMID DOMESTIC PLANT TURNAROUNDS By Angie Li

Chinarsquos polyethylene (PE) imports are expected to remain strong for the rest of the year after posting record volumes in January to April 2018 amid scheduled turnarounds at domestic facilities

Buyers in China have been accumulating imported PE cargoes as these were priced lower compared futures prices since the start of the year

More cargoes will be available to China as new capacities in the US are expected to boost production

For the month of May the countryrsquos PE imports are projected to reach 12m tonnes higher than the monthly average in the first four months of 2018

In January to April 2018 its PE imports volumes totaled 447m tonnes up by 12 from the previous corresponding period according to industry sources

The import volumes were making up for the production losses in the domestic market due to scheduled turnarounds

On 1 June low density PE (LDPE) imports were assessed at $1155-1180tonne linear low density PE (LLDPE) stood at $1150-1170tonne while high density PE (HDPE) film products were at $1340-1400tonne according to ICIS data

The prices have increased 15-62 from end-March but the gains came in lower than market playersrsquo expectations considering the heavy production loss due to turnarounds from April

Back to Quick Navigation | 36Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

An estimated 500000 tonnes are expected to be shaved in the second quarter due to scheduled maintenance at domestic facilities according ICIS data

ldquoWe thought the hefty plant turnarounds in the second quarter should lead to a surge in PE prices but the LDPE and LLDPE prices were less than satisfactory although HDPE prices [were] highrdquo said an east China-based trader referring to both the import and domestic PE prices

Strong imports amid hedging activities bloated the total supply in China in January to April to 998m tonnes up by 8 from the previous corresponding period with supply of LDPE and LLDPE up by 14 and 8 respectively market sources said

Imports of HDPE inched up by 2 over the same period given the gradersquos comparatively higher prices compared with LLDPE and LDPE

Increased availability due to recent capacity expansions and start-ups in Asia the Middle East also fuels Chinarsquos appetite for import cargoes

In the first quarter of 2018 additional cargoes from Saudi Arabia were mostly from Sadara Chemical which started up its 750000 tonneyear swing plant and 350000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Al Jubail during late 2016 and early 2017 respectively

Cargoes of Iran origin augmented the total volume from the UAE as market players try to go around the financial sanctions on Tehran Kordestan Petrochemicalrsquos 300000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Iran came on stream in March 2017

UAErsquos Borouge has also ramped up pipe and HDPE film exports to China during the period according to a supplier in the Middle East

Meanwhile PE imports from Singapore surged 38 year on year while those from India more than doubled to 127000 tonnes according to China Customs data

The ban on waste plastics implemented in China in the year also bolstered imports of virgin PE Some waste plastics processed overseas and then re-entered the market as virgin products but these volumes were limited

Last year China has imported 194m tonnes of PE waste plastics while

volumes in 2018 will be negligible with the implemention of the ban

Chinarsquos PE production this year is expected to increase by around 7 to about 17m tonnes in 2018 with imports projected to grow by 102 to around 13m tonnes according to a source from state-owned petrochemical giant PetroChina

Domestic demand for PE on the other hand is forecast to grow by 8 this year mainly from the packaging and pipe markets

Chinarsquos ongoing campaign to switch to using gas for power generation instead of coal is expected to continue boosting demand for PE gas pipes this year

The packaging industry will also drive up PE consumption underpinned by growth in electronic commerce Chinarsquos express delivery volumes reached 137bn packages during January-April 2018 based on data from the recent China Express Industry Development Conference in May

Back to Quick Navigation | 37Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 38Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

By Jonathan Lopez

ICIS NewsThe leading news service for real-time ground breaking news and analysis on the global petrochemicals markets

The ICIS News services give you unrivalled access to the most in-depth stories impacting the petrochemicals markets influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions

Our team of global editors are reporting around the clock to bring you the latest news and analysis so that you get the full picture of market and pricing developments first providing you with invaluable foresight to take advantage of every opportunity and to stay ahead of your competitors

With ICIS News you will be the first to read

Breaking news on the chemical markets that will impact your business

News on market moves deals and announcements that will affect your organisation

Force majeures closures and developments that influence your commodity prices

Expert analysis on industry trends and hot topics ndash know whatrsquos happening and why

Searchable archive with over 14 million articles from the past 10 years

Chemical Business News Base (CBNB) is a premium resource available on ICIS News It provides you with an extensive external source of upstream and downstream petrochemical news in summarised snapshots so you can quickly and easily get the latest updates on whatrsquos important to you

CBNB offers readers

Fast and consistent coverage on news facts figures from the upstream and downstream petrochemicals industry

Access to over 700 news sources including technical and trade journals company literature market research reports stockbroker reports books and directories

User-friendly search functionality to find articles most relevant to you from around the globe

Quick and easy-to-read summarised snapshots of articles with option to access full articles from the original source

ICIS Chemical Business digital magazine (ICB) Our global team of experts digests and summarises the key issues and their potential impact on the chemical markets offering a comprehensive overview of the key developments that matter most-along with informed opinion and in-depth analysis

ICB features include

In-depth insight into chemical price changes and their impact on the markets

Understand the detail behind the headline news stories

Find out about supply amp demand trends and the factors impacting them

Get the complete picture of the chemical markets ndash all in one e-magazine

Easy access via e-magazine and premium magazine website

Find out more wwwiciscomnews

ICIS News offers access to additional sources including the ICIS Chemical Business Magazine and Chemical Business News Base (CBNB)

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYPROPYLENE (PP)

SE ASIA PP PRICES MAY COME UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 AS SUPPLY LENGTHENSBy Leanne Tan

Southeast Asiarsquos polypropylene (PP) market may come under pressure in the second half of the year on account of lengthening regional supply and weak downstream demand

Spot prices have been on the rise for most of May buoyed by bullish sentiment in the Chinese market and firm upstream feedstock costs

Margins for PP makers have been lower on average compared with levels in the previous year

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refinery amp Petrochemicals is scheduled to start up its 400000 tonneyear PP production unit in the third quarter The project was initially scheduled to start up in the first quarter of 2018

While domestic demand will continue to outstrip local production the countryrsquos reliance on imports may be diminished when the new plant starts up

Converters in the country have been opting to keep inventories lean in the short term amid expectations that prices may eventually weaken when more domestic supply becomes available

ldquoBuyers donrsquot want to buy too much import cargoes now not just because prices are high but also because there will be more locally-produced materials very soonrdquo a Vietnamese trader said

In Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan is expected to start commercial production at its expanded PP facility in Pasir Gudang in June or July The plantrsquos capacity will be raised by 200000 tonnesyear from 400000 tonnesyear

Import availabilities from South Korea are expected to lengthen in the medium-to-long term with S-Oil expected to complete an olefin downstream complex (ODC) at its Onsan refinery in Ulsan which will include a

405000 tonneyear PP capacity

On the demand front weakness is likely to persist in the second half with converters and end-users likely to continue buying spot cargoes on a hand-to-mouth basis

Indonesiarsquos demand in particular has been below expectations since the start of 2018 and this is likely to continue in the second half of the year according to market players

Back to Quick Navigation | 39Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Some players said import demand for dutiable cargoes may increase in the second half of the year as this is typically when the government issues duty exemption facilities

The duty exemption facilities are issued on a yearly basis which enable converters to import some PP volumes without extra cost

In Malaysia the removal of the 6 goods and services tax (GST) so far has had no immediate impact on the PP market although there are some expectations the move could potentially boost demand in the consumer market further down the road

In Vietnam demand for PP flat yarn has entered a seasonal lull from May to early July and will not pick up until August when the summer harvest begins

PP is widely used in the manufacture of woven sacks (for rice sacks) flexible packaging carpets household appliances and automotive parts

Spot PP prices in southeast Asia have been an uptrend for most of the first half

The PP market begun the year on a bullish note with spot prices surging by almost 10 over the course of two months all-origins PP flat yarn prices peaked at $1295tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia on 2 March

Healthy demand in China helped to provide support to spot prices in southeast Asia in the first quarter with a tight global spot supply leading to further price escalations

Some suppliers pulled back from the southeast Asian spot market to capitalise on better netbacks in other countries including Japan and Pakistan leading to further curtailed spot availability in southeast Asia

The market rally started to lose steam in early March amid subdued demand and a build-up of domestic inventories in China after the Lunar New Year holidays

The bearish sentiment soon spilled over into southeast Asia with Chinese suppliers pushing some volumes into southeast Asia amid an open arbitrage window

Vietnam remains the market of choice for Chinese exporters and PP import prices in the country plummeted as the result of the lengthened spot availability

However the bearish run was short-lived and prices soon bottomed out in early April

Bullish momentum in the upstream crude and naphtha markets propelled spot prices of polymers higher

Despite lacklustre downstream demand price hikes in April and May were commonplace as producers sought higher asking prices in view of narrower margins

TIGHT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT CHINA PP MARKET DESPITE WEAK DEMANDBy Dora Xue

Tight supply would buoy up Chinarsquos polypropylene (PP) prices in the near term despite weak downstream demand

The market is expecting heavy production losses following recent unexpected outages at five domestic facilities from May and scheduled turnarounds at other plants

In the week ended on 1 June domestic prices for PP flat yarn in east China were assessed at Chinese yuan (CNY) 9075tonne after a steady increase from early April according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos import prices for the same material stood at $1245tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China largely tracking movement in the domestic market over the past two months according to ICIS data

The strong PP prices have also started to deter buyers from purchasing more spot cargoes

ldquoPP prices are too high We donrsquot want to store too much in our warehouserdquo a buyer said

Downstream demand typically goes on a lull in June and July but any downward pressure on prices will be negated by a further tightening of supply as major plants will be taken off line for maintenance

ldquoWhen the maintenance season finishes in late June [PP] prices may start to go downrdquo a trader said

Demand is considered weakest at Qingdao in the eastern Shandong province due to government-mandated production cuts and logistics restrictions ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (SCO Summit) on 9-10 June

As of 1 June the combined polyolefin inventories of Chinese petrochemical majors Sinopec and PetroChina have declined back to normal levels of 700000 tonnes from a high of 1m tonnes in early March market sources said

Import supply to China may not improve in the short term as suppliers still deem other

Back to Quick Navigation | 40Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

Back to Quick Navigation | 43Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

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increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 26: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESPOLYETHYLENE TEREPHTHALATE (PET)

ASIA PET TO REMAIN FIRM IN Q3 AS TIGHT SUPPLY SUPPORT PRICESBy Hazel Goh

Asian polyethylene terephthalate (PET) market is likely to remain firm in the third quarter on the back of tight supply a trend that has supported prices so far in 2018

Recently PET tight supply is a result of production cuts in Asia and Europe that have not had a clear estimated date of resuming normal operations

China Resources Packaging had cut production at its PET lines in Changzhou by 50 following notice from the government to reduce pollution in end-May It is not known for how long the production cuts will remain in place

In Europe there had been feedstock purified terephthalic acid (PTA) supply tightness leading to recent PET production cuts and force majeure by Novapet and JBF respectively

Many buyers had been purchasing on a need-to basis expecting that firm prices are unsustainable and will come down Subsequently they did not stock up cargoes ahead of the peak summer demand season for countries in the northern hemisphere

The reality turned out different and they had to accept higher prices as production cuts kept the supply tight

PET used to track feedstock price movements closely as it had been an oversupplied market and producers typically operate on thin margins

The oversupply situation changed and tightness was first felt in the third quarter of 2017 when plant closures by JBF RAK in the UAE and Belgium and by Mossi amp Ghisolfi (MampG) in the US Mexico and Brazil following financial tightness in the two PET-producing companies

Hurricane Harvey that hit the US in the third quarter led to further production cuts in the US

Back to Quick Navigation | 24Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 1

From then on supply remained tight as the plant under JBF RAK in the UAE and the former MampG plant in the US that had been acquired by Far Eastern remained shut for extended period of time even into 2018

Market players previously had concerns about where China will export its material when final anti-dumping duties (ADD) - heard to be at the same level as thepreliminary duties of 398-530 - wereimposed on its cargoes into Japan inJanuary

Japan was the top exporting destination for Chinese cargoes before the ADD following which the exports dropped drastically

While other producers such as Taiwanese southeast Asian Indian and South Korean producers sold more volumes into Japan Chinese makers sold to other markets that were relinquished by the other producers

Table 1 shows a significant difference between 2016 and 2017 in Chinarsquos export volumes to key destinations from the January-to-March period

Ranked by volume starting with largestvolume as 1

There is an ongoing anti-dumping duty (ADD) investigation by the US on PET cargoes from Brazil Pakistan Indonesia Taiwan and South Korea

The Commerce Department issued the preliminary dumping rates for Indonesia at 1316 South Korea at 881-10141 and Taiwan at 902-1189 in May Final determinations will be issued by 8 November

Even so some producers from the countries under investigation continued to receive buying enquiries from the US amid the current tight supply situation

There will be some upcoming new capacities expected in Q3 as shown in table 2 that may bring about a more balanced supply to meet the demand

The US plant acquired by Far Eastern is estimated to restart in June-July which should also ease the supply tightness

Even with the new capacities and plant restarts market participants think it is unlikely that PET market will return to the oversupply situation seen in the previous years

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian PET markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 25Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 2

Our English-language report coverage includes

Styrene MEG Propylene

BTX Methanol Base Oil

BPA PE MTBE

Phenol PP Mixed AromaticsAcetone Oxo-Alcohol

Trusted industryintelligence for Chinarsquoscommodity marketsDevelopments in Chinarsquos petrochemicals industrycontinue to affect the global marketplace It istherefore vital for domestic and internationalmarket players to keep track of changes withinthe country to know where opportunities lie

ICIS has long been recognised as a reliablesource of information our locally-based expertscompile reports and analyses in English tosupport industry participants dealing with Chinamarkets or seeking to trade or invest

Pricing informationOur pricing data provide key insights into pricetrends in China to support your short-termdecision-making negotiations and analyses

bull Import and export spot and contract pricesbull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity

and upstreamdownstream marketsbull Data on inventory levels and price marginsbull Plant and production news

Petrochemicals Analytics SolutionsProviding our customers with a 360-degree view of the Chinese market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker - real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for thenext 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics - key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock anddo wnstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlooks

Available for key chemical commodities

wwwiciscomchina

Discover how we can meet your market information needs

enquiryiciscom

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESMONOETHYLENE GLYCOL (MEG)

ASIA MEG TO SEE DEMAND TAPERING LOWER SUPPLY IN EARLY H2By Eric Su

The Asian monoethylene glycol (MEG) market could see demand slowing down from the end of June while supply will be reduced from a number of plant turnarounds

Inventories are expected to decline in June after offtake rates at Chinese main ports rose sharply in the last two weeks of May because of an uptick in demand from downstream polyester buyers

Demand for MEG is also expected to remain strong in the first half of June boosted by high polyester production rates of above 85 and modestly low inventory levels

A slowdown in demand may take place in the second half of June as the traditional manufacturing peak period nears its end in July

Meanwhile supply conditions could tighten because of the plant turnarounds in northeast Asia

However supply from the Middle East will likely resume to normal levels given that there were no further delay in shipments in May

MEG prices in Asia have registered year-on-year growth rates in the months to June this year

MEG prices have mostly hovered above $900tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China Main Port (CMP) while prices were mostly below $900tonne CFR CMP in 2017

Prices have been volatile in 2018 with major price swings seen on a near monthly basis since February

MEG prices in first quarter of 2018 continued the uptrend seen in the fourth quarter of 2017 rising to $1030tonne CFR CMP in early March from $922tonne CFR

CMP in late December as the higher-than-expected growth in downstream polyester fuelled bullish market sentiment

Polyester growth in 2017 was estimated at above 10 beating an originally bearish expectation of 2-3

A price downtrend was observed in March with the MEG weekly average price losing nearly 10 of its value to $929tonne CFR CMP by end-March

The price decline coincided with a sharp influx of imported cargoes which was likely a result of over-procurement in January

Back to Quick Navigation | 26Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

and February when prices were trending upwards

March 2018 import volumes rose to nearly 1m tonnes a record three-year high according to official China customs data

MEG prices rebounded in April rising by around 9 from end-March to $1014tonne CFR CMP by end-April ahead of the traditional peak period for the downstream polyester sector The average polyester production rate rose to above 85 during the period

MEG also achieved its to-date weekly peak of $1042tonne CFR CMP in the week ending 20 April

Supply tightness was also observed in the Chinese domestic market because of shipment delays from the Middle East and logistical issues at China main ports over the same period

The lack of availability of prompt cargoes also led to an atypical price spread between April and May delivery parcels

Normally the spread between arrived-at-port and far-term arrival cargoes is at $0-10tonne CFR CMP but this widened to $20-30tonne CFR CMP This drove concerns of sharp price adjustments in May once April deliveries were fulfilled

These concerns came true as MEG prices

began to slide in May MEG weekly prices stood at $928tonne CFR CMP in the last week of May falling from $1003tonne CFR CMP in early May

High inventory levels have also weighed on MEG prices Inventory levels were above 900000 tonnes from early May onward rising to 938000 tonnes by in late March Most market participants deemed inventory levels above 900000 tonnes to be high

The increase in inventory levels in May were largely attributed to the arrival of Middle East shipments which were previously due for arrival in April

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian MEG markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 27Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSETHYLENE

NE ASIA ETHYLENE H2 OUTLOOK HINGES ON NEW SUPPLY SM PLANTBy Yeow Pei Lin

Northeast (NE) Asiarsquos ethylene (C2) second-half 2018 outlook is uncertain as several crackers are scheduled for maintenance but such production losses could be offset by the start up of a new plant and cargoes from outside the region

More than 20 crackers in Asia are slated to undergo maintenance in 2018 with the estimated capacity losses totalling more than 185m tonnes Most of the turnarounds in the first half of the year were concentrated in Japan ndash a key exporter to China

However several more companies are to carry out turnarounds in June and the rest of the year

The impact on the regional balance will depend on the start-up progress of a new facility in South Korea and on whether the strong exports from southeast Asia and Europe in the first half of 2018 will continue

Shipments from Yeosu South Korea will start to slow down in August ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at complexes in that region

Exports will recover by December when Lotte Chemical brings on-stream an added capacity of 200000 tonnesyear at its Yeosu cracker

The facility will undergo an expansion during a turnaround from late September to October

Shipments from Ulsan another petrochemical cluster in South Korea will grow in the second half of 2018

Newcomer S-Oil is expected to begin commercial operations at its residue upgrading complex (RUC) in Onsan in the second half of June

The companyrsquos entire ethylene output of up

to around 200000 tonnesyear is intended for the merchant market as it does not have any downstream plants

Exports from southeast Asian producers will continue to be driven by the higher value from ethylene sales in the ethylene versus polyethylene (PE) trade-off

There will however be supply constraints

Four crackers in the region will undergo

maintenance and the affected producers include ExxonMobil and PTT Global Chemicals (PTTGC) that were regular exporters in the first half of 2018

Exports from Europe will likely be influenced by the performance of the PE sector

The outlook for the PE market in Europe is uncertain given the growing prospect of competitively-priced exports from the new US plants

Back to Quick Navigation | 28Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Ethylene costs in the US have been at low levels since early 2018 as production growth outpaces that for consumption

Since late 2017 about 3m tonnesyear of new ethylene capacity and about 35m tonnesyear of new PE capacity have started up in the US

The new crackers have been running well but several of the new PE plants struggled to reach full operating rates

Exports from Saudi Arabia are expected to be constrained by increased domestic consumption

Petro Rabigh announced in April that the last few plants in its Phase 2 project including a 75000 tonneyear ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) unit have started up

The companyrsquos ethylene exports could fall further in the second half of 2018 following the completion of its PE plant maintenance shutdowns earlier in the year

Chinarsquos import demand is poised for further growth when a new 260000 tonneyear styrene monomer (SM) plant starts up in the third quarter as planned

Anhui Haoyuan Chemical will be operating the unit in Fuyang Anhui on a standalone basis as its plans to build a methanol-to-olefin (MTO) plant have been put on hold amid high methanol prices

The plant will require around 78000 tonnes of ethylene annually to operate at maximum capacity

Based on the above factors it was not immediately clear if the ethylene prices in the second half will follow the volatile trend they displayed in the first five months of 2018

NE Asia spot ethylene prices were volatile from January to May as the impact of a heavy regional cracker turnaround schedule and strong Chinese demand was at times outweighed by strong exports from southeast Asia the Middle East and Europe

The market started the year at above a two and a half year high of $1415tonne CFR (cost amp freight) NE Asia in early January

Subsequent transacted prices fluctuated within a low $1200stonne to mid $1300stonne CFR NE Asia band in the five months ended 31 May

Prices in the first quarter were initially weighed down by ample supply from producers in the Middle East and Asia due to a series of PE plant shutdowns - both planned and unplanned

That was despite strong pre-Lunar New Year holiday restocking activities in China

Demand was bolstered by the start up of a 500000 tonneyear non-integrated SM plant and generally healthy downstream margins for producers outside the PE sector

End-users were also keen to build up their inventories because of the slow progress in their 2018 term contract discussions ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at facilities of key exporters in the region

In addition a major ethylene oxide (EO) maker was seeking more import cargoes following a disruption in supply from its upstream MTO unit The plant was shut twice between late November and the first half of February because of high feedstock methanol costs

The market recovered in early March in line with the start of the annual cracker turnaround season in northeast Asia where

scheduled capacity losses in 2018 will be overall higher than the previous year

That explained why the countryrsquos exports from January to April slumped by 14 year-on-year to 201274 tonnes

In late April northeast Asiarsquos spot prices fell again after a surprisingly large quantity of deep-sea spot cargoes were sold into Asia for delivery between the middle of May and the first half of June

There were at least 55000-60000 tonnes of cargoes from Europe in addition to 11000 tonnes of US supply for that delivery period Europe was in a long position because of derivative maintenance shutdowns and production problems

Continued strong exports from southeast Asia owing to downstream production issues and the weak performance of the linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) market contributed to the downbeat sentiment

The ample supply outweighed Chinarsquos robust import demand

Buying interest in China was strong for April and May arrival cargoes on the back

Back to Quick Navigation | 29Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

of healthy downstream margins for certain downstream markets such as SM EO and monoethylene glycol (MEG)

Ethylene buyers in China were also keen to book deep-sea cargoes to offset the expected regional production losses from cracker turnarounds

Prices rebounded quickly in mid-May

aided by a bullish SM market and reduced domestic supply

Some MTO operators lowered production in May as high feedstock methanol costs led to squeezed margins while a key producer in east China lowered its cracker run rates unexpectedly

Sharp increases in feedstock naphtha costs

which tracked gains on crude oil futures also helped set a floor to the earlier price declines

By early June spot ethylene prices had touched a 20-week high raising questions on whether the market will see similar price volatility in the second half of 2018

Producers will turn hawkish if the outlook for crude and naphtha markets remains upbeat

Back to Quick Navigation | 30Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSPROPYLENE

TIGHT NE ASIA PROPYLENE SUPPLY TO LIMIT H2 PRICE FLUCTUATIONSBy Joson Ng

Tight propylene (C3) supply in northeast Asia amid a heavy turnaround schedule in 2018 will continue supporting regional prices of the material into the second half

Sellers are likely to continue passing on firmer costs to buyers which are wary of October when heavy propylene production losses are expected

Buyersrsquo resistance in the key China market would keep any further increase in propylene prices in check with some downstream producers considering cutting output due to high feedstock costs

At the start of June propylene prices have weakened ending the strong general uptrend since end-March amid weakness in Chinarsquos domestic market as demand softened due to turnarounds at downstream polypropylene (PP) plants

However the downward pressure on regional prices may be temporary as overall supply in Asia is expected to be tight

In early June spot propylene prices in northeast Asia were about 9 higher from the start of 2018 according to ICIS data

The year started on a bullish note fuelled by a heavier cracker turnaround schedule compared with 2017 and higher premium levels concluded for contract cargoes

The uptrend was sustained into February due to restocking activities in various import markets in northeast Asia before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February

Before the holidays some South Korean producers were convinced the market will experience supply shortage as both GS Caltexrsquos fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity and Yeochun NCCrsquos (YNCC) cracker ndash which can produce 280000 tonnesyear of propylene ndash were due for maintenance in February through to April

But propylene prices surprisingly weakened from 9 February to end-March without demand support from Chinarsquos weak PP market which struggled through sluggish sales and high inventory after the countryrsquos week-long Lunar New Year holiday

A renewed wave of scheduled turnarounds at regional plants tightened supply and drove up propylene prices in April and May

In Taiwan Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) took its residue fluid catalytic

Back to Quick Navigation | 31Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

cracking (RFCC) unit with a 350000 tonneyear propylene capacity off stream from 1 March to mid-April while CPC Corp shut its 100000 tonneyear FCC unit on 10 April and restarted in early June

In South Korea GS Caltex also had a turnaround at its FCC unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity from 19 February to 5 April

SK Advanced shut its propane dehydrogenated (PDH) unit with 600000 tonneyear propylene capacity on 21 April to early May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian propylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 32Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

To talk to someone about price forecast reports call the numbers below or email us at salesukiciscomAsia-Pacific Europe Africa and Middle East The AmericasTel +65 6789 8828 Tel +44 20 8652 3335 Tel +1 713 525 2600 or Toll free +1 888 525 3255 (US and Canada only)

ICIS price forecast reportsSupply demand and price trends at a glance

ICIS price forecast reports provide a clear view of prices and supply and demand trends for the next 12 months Packed with vital information the report includes everything you need to assess where the market is heading and the impact or opportunity that presents for your business

To find out more or take a trial visit wwwiciscompriceforecast

Price Forecast Window

ICIS price forecasts are now available on the Dashboard channel using the Price Forecast Window which will enable users to

n Chart the price forecast against the last (rolling) twelve months of related price history

n Plot the last 12 months to view forecast progression and ICIS forecast accuracy

n Convert data into different currencies and units and download this data into Excel in order to easily enter into your own calculations

How price forecast reports can help youn Understand the marketUse ICIS price forecast reports to understand where the market is heading and identify the risks and the opportunities for your business What are the major demand developments for your product n Safeguard commercial decisionsUse market information to make better-informed business decisions relating to supply and demand Learn about changes in market capacities What factors will affect supply for you n Budgeting and planningWhether you are planning how much you will be spending in the short-to medium or even long term use the price forecast reports to help assess future prices for your product What will the price of your product be in six monthsrsquo time

Price forecast reports currently

available

Available as price forecast windows only

Polypropylene

Polyethylene

Benzene

StyrenePolystyrene

Methanol

Ethylene

Propylene

Styrene

Asia Europe US Global

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

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3

OLEFINSBUTADIENE

ASIA BD TO FLUCTUATE IN H2 AS SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE SHIFTSBy Helen Yan

Asiarsquos butadiene (BD) spot prices for July shipments are likely to face downward pressure but any price downtrend is likely to reverse when cracker turnarounds start to kick in from September onwards

BD prices are expected to be weighed down before seeing support again in the third quarter as the supply and demand balance shifts during this period

The fourth quarter will likely see support for BD prices although the increases may be tempered by resistance from the downstream synthetic rubber (SR) makers to any significant price hikes

The busy cracker turnaround season in September-November will likely see supply tightening at the same time that demand is expected to pick up during this period

Several crackers and BD units including South Korearsquos Lotte Chemical LG Chem and Chinarsquos Shanghai Secco and Maoming Petrochemical are scheduled to shut during

the September to November time frame

In the near term BD spot prices are likely to continue to trend lower as demand wanes while supply at the same time is expected to lengthen due to an influx of deep-sea cargoes and regional cracker restarts

More than 15000 tonnes of deep-sea cargoes from EU are expected to arrive in Asia in June and July at the same time that crackers in Asia including Indiarsquos Haldia Petrochemical and Indonesiarsquos Chandra Asri resume their production following their maintenance shutdowns

On 8 June spot prices fell to $1725tonne CFR (cost amp freight) northeast (NE) Asia the second consecutive week of decline after spiralling upwards in the two months since early April

BD spot prices had increased by more than 40 since early April peaking at $1800tonne CFR NE Asia on 25 May

Strong demand from derivative acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) makers which were running their plants at optimal rates had bolstered the BD price upsurge during this period

However derivative styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) and polybutadiene rubber (PBR) producers the key consumers of BD cut their production output given the continued erosion in margins

Several major SBR and PBR producers said their margins had fallen into negative territory and retreated from the BD spot market in June

Chinese spot appetite in particular tapered off as domestic BD prices were lower compared with the US dollar-denominated import prices

In China Hangzhou Zhechen Jilin Petrochemical Zhejiang Transfar and Shen Hua Chemical were some of the SBR and PBR plants that are shut for maintenance in June and July

Several SBR and PBR plants in Taiwan and South Korea were also running at lower rates following the 40 BD price spike in the two months from early April to end-May

In South Korea major SR producer Korea Kumho Petrochemical PC was running its SBR and PBR plants at reduced rates

Back to Quick Navigation | 33Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian butadiene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 34Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Similarly Taiwanrsquos TSRC also cut the production output of its SBR and PBR plants

The outlook for the fourth quarter is expected to see a different turn of events with SBR and PBR plants resuming their production and ramping up their operating rates while supply during the last quarter is expected to tighten from the heavy cracker turnaround season

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYETHYLENE (PE)

SOUTHEAST ASIA PE MARKET FACES LONGER H2 SUPPLY WEAK DEMANDBy Felita Widjaja

Southeast Asiarsquos polyethylene (PE) market may be facing longer supply in the second half hinging on how the US-China trade spat plays out amid the regionrsquos weakening demand for imports

Global PE trade flows will be affected should China the biggest importer of spot PE cargoes in the world decide to impose retaliatory 25 tariff on US cargoes

Southeast Asia as an alternative buying region might be hard pressed to absorb additional supply from the US where massive PE capacities recently started up which were meant to cater to huge Chinese demand

Around 5m tonnes of additional US PE capacities are expected from several major projects including those in the pipeline to start up within the second half of 2018

China primarily imports PE cargoes from Asia and the Middle East while the US is its sixth leading PE supplier in 2017

ldquoEventually more substantial and regular volume of US [PE] cargoes are expected to be traded in Asia in the second half of the year as we have yet to see them in the first half of this yearrdquo said a regional trader

Any changes in trade flows would pose challenges to US suppliers in the short term as they would need to revamp their logistics and distribution channels to redirect cargoes to other markets

Suppliers from the Middle East meanwhile might take the opportunity to supply more cargoes to China and would mean fewer volumes available to the southeast Asian market

The Middle East is southeast Asiarsquos major PE supplier

Demand for PE imports in southeast Asia has been weak amid lower prices in

Back to Quick Navigation | 35Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

the domestic markets as in the case of Thailand

ldquoThai traders are not keen to import as local prices are more competitive so they do not have the margin to sell the imported cargoes in local market Only some converters who need specific cargoes continue to importrdquo said a local Thai trader

Malaysia and Indonesia with predominantly Muslim populations have seen market activity slow down since mid-May when the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan started Ramadan ends with the Eid ul-Fitr holiday on 15 June

The Indonesian government has declared a longer Eid-ul Fitr holiday this year from 11-20 June

Markets in Singapore and the Philippines will be closed for the mid-June holiday as well

With supply expected to become long some market players expect regional PE prices in July and August to ease from

June with restocking activities expected to kick in towards the end of the third quarter

In the first half of 2018 southeast Asiarsquos average prices for commodity PE were largely stable to firm owing to suppliersrsquo relatively comfortable-to-tight supply for most of the period

At the start of June high density polyethylene (HDPE) film grade prices averaged $1395tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia while linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) film were at $1210tonne CFR SE Asia and $1265tonne CFR SE Asia respectively according to ICIS data

Prices had spiked in the first quarter as suppliers were holding comfortable-to-tight inventory as several regional producers have scheduled turnarounds at their plants in March Production issues and shutdowns in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia also limited availability of imports to southeast Asia during this period

Supply for HDPE film was particularly tight as some producers from the Middle East as well as Asia switched their focus into making HDPE pipe grade amid robust demand and better netbacks

The price uptrend across most PE grades could not be sustained in the second quarter although prices remained relatively stable-to-firm

The depreciation of local currencies in southeast Asia against the US dollar in most of the second quarter was also curbing overall demand for imports A weaker currency makes US dollar-denominated imports expensive

ldquoIndonesian buyers have not been buying much cargoes as the market slowed down during Ramadan and also because of weak rupiah which led the central bank to increase interest rate to limit the depreciationrdquo said a regional producer

CHINA PE IMPORTS TO STAY STRONG AMID DOMESTIC PLANT TURNAROUNDS By Angie Li

Chinarsquos polyethylene (PE) imports are expected to remain strong for the rest of the year after posting record volumes in January to April 2018 amid scheduled turnarounds at domestic facilities

Buyers in China have been accumulating imported PE cargoes as these were priced lower compared futures prices since the start of the year

More cargoes will be available to China as new capacities in the US are expected to boost production

For the month of May the countryrsquos PE imports are projected to reach 12m tonnes higher than the monthly average in the first four months of 2018

In January to April 2018 its PE imports volumes totaled 447m tonnes up by 12 from the previous corresponding period according to industry sources

The import volumes were making up for the production losses in the domestic market due to scheduled turnarounds

On 1 June low density PE (LDPE) imports were assessed at $1155-1180tonne linear low density PE (LLDPE) stood at $1150-1170tonne while high density PE (HDPE) film products were at $1340-1400tonne according to ICIS data

The prices have increased 15-62 from end-March but the gains came in lower than market playersrsquo expectations considering the heavy production loss due to turnarounds from April

Back to Quick Navigation | 36Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

An estimated 500000 tonnes are expected to be shaved in the second quarter due to scheduled maintenance at domestic facilities according ICIS data

ldquoWe thought the hefty plant turnarounds in the second quarter should lead to a surge in PE prices but the LDPE and LLDPE prices were less than satisfactory although HDPE prices [were] highrdquo said an east China-based trader referring to both the import and domestic PE prices

Strong imports amid hedging activities bloated the total supply in China in January to April to 998m tonnes up by 8 from the previous corresponding period with supply of LDPE and LLDPE up by 14 and 8 respectively market sources said

Imports of HDPE inched up by 2 over the same period given the gradersquos comparatively higher prices compared with LLDPE and LDPE

Increased availability due to recent capacity expansions and start-ups in Asia the Middle East also fuels Chinarsquos appetite for import cargoes

In the first quarter of 2018 additional cargoes from Saudi Arabia were mostly from Sadara Chemical which started up its 750000 tonneyear swing plant and 350000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Al Jubail during late 2016 and early 2017 respectively

Cargoes of Iran origin augmented the total volume from the UAE as market players try to go around the financial sanctions on Tehran Kordestan Petrochemicalrsquos 300000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Iran came on stream in March 2017

UAErsquos Borouge has also ramped up pipe and HDPE film exports to China during the period according to a supplier in the Middle East

Meanwhile PE imports from Singapore surged 38 year on year while those from India more than doubled to 127000 tonnes according to China Customs data

The ban on waste plastics implemented in China in the year also bolstered imports of virgin PE Some waste plastics processed overseas and then re-entered the market as virgin products but these volumes were limited

Last year China has imported 194m tonnes of PE waste plastics while

volumes in 2018 will be negligible with the implemention of the ban

Chinarsquos PE production this year is expected to increase by around 7 to about 17m tonnes in 2018 with imports projected to grow by 102 to around 13m tonnes according to a source from state-owned petrochemical giant PetroChina

Domestic demand for PE on the other hand is forecast to grow by 8 this year mainly from the packaging and pipe markets

Chinarsquos ongoing campaign to switch to using gas for power generation instead of coal is expected to continue boosting demand for PE gas pipes this year

The packaging industry will also drive up PE consumption underpinned by growth in electronic commerce Chinarsquos express delivery volumes reached 137bn packages during January-April 2018 based on data from the recent China Express Industry Development Conference in May

Back to Quick Navigation | 37Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 38Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

By Jonathan Lopez

ICIS NewsThe leading news service for real-time ground breaking news and analysis on the global petrochemicals markets

The ICIS News services give you unrivalled access to the most in-depth stories impacting the petrochemicals markets influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions

Our team of global editors are reporting around the clock to bring you the latest news and analysis so that you get the full picture of market and pricing developments first providing you with invaluable foresight to take advantage of every opportunity and to stay ahead of your competitors

With ICIS News you will be the first to read

Breaking news on the chemical markets that will impact your business

News on market moves deals and announcements that will affect your organisation

Force majeures closures and developments that influence your commodity prices

Expert analysis on industry trends and hot topics ndash know whatrsquos happening and why

Searchable archive with over 14 million articles from the past 10 years

Chemical Business News Base (CBNB) is a premium resource available on ICIS News It provides you with an extensive external source of upstream and downstream petrochemical news in summarised snapshots so you can quickly and easily get the latest updates on whatrsquos important to you

CBNB offers readers

Fast and consistent coverage on news facts figures from the upstream and downstream petrochemicals industry

Access to over 700 news sources including technical and trade journals company literature market research reports stockbroker reports books and directories

User-friendly search functionality to find articles most relevant to you from around the globe

Quick and easy-to-read summarised snapshots of articles with option to access full articles from the original source

ICIS Chemical Business digital magazine (ICB) Our global team of experts digests and summarises the key issues and their potential impact on the chemical markets offering a comprehensive overview of the key developments that matter most-along with informed opinion and in-depth analysis

ICB features include

In-depth insight into chemical price changes and their impact on the markets

Understand the detail behind the headline news stories

Find out about supply amp demand trends and the factors impacting them

Get the complete picture of the chemical markets ndash all in one e-magazine

Easy access via e-magazine and premium magazine website

Find out more wwwiciscomnews

ICIS News offers access to additional sources including the ICIS Chemical Business Magazine and Chemical Business News Base (CBNB)

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYPROPYLENE (PP)

SE ASIA PP PRICES MAY COME UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 AS SUPPLY LENGTHENSBy Leanne Tan

Southeast Asiarsquos polypropylene (PP) market may come under pressure in the second half of the year on account of lengthening regional supply and weak downstream demand

Spot prices have been on the rise for most of May buoyed by bullish sentiment in the Chinese market and firm upstream feedstock costs

Margins for PP makers have been lower on average compared with levels in the previous year

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refinery amp Petrochemicals is scheduled to start up its 400000 tonneyear PP production unit in the third quarter The project was initially scheduled to start up in the first quarter of 2018

While domestic demand will continue to outstrip local production the countryrsquos reliance on imports may be diminished when the new plant starts up

Converters in the country have been opting to keep inventories lean in the short term amid expectations that prices may eventually weaken when more domestic supply becomes available

ldquoBuyers donrsquot want to buy too much import cargoes now not just because prices are high but also because there will be more locally-produced materials very soonrdquo a Vietnamese trader said

In Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan is expected to start commercial production at its expanded PP facility in Pasir Gudang in June or July The plantrsquos capacity will be raised by 200000 tonnesyear from 400000 tonnesyear

Import availabilities from South Korea are expected to lengthen in the medium-to-long term with S-Oil expected to complete an olefin downstream complex (ODC) at its Onsan refinery in Ulsan which will include a

405000 tonneyear PP capacity

On the demand front weakness is likely to persist in the second half with converters and end-users likely to continue buying spot cargoes on a hand-to-mouth basis

Indonesiarsquos demand in particular has been below expectations since the start of 2018 and this is likely to continue in the second half of the year according to market players

Back to Quick Navigation | 39Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Some players said import demand for dutiable cargoes may increase in the second half of the year as this is typically when the government issues duty exemption facilities

The duty exemption facilities are issued on a yearly basis which enable converters to import some PP volumes without extra cost

In Malaysia the removal of the 6 goods and services tax (GST) so far has had no immediate impact on the PP market although there are some expectations the move could potentially boost demand in the consumer market further down the road

In Vietnam demand for PP flat yarn has entered a seasonal lull from May to early July and will not pick up until August when the summer harvest begins

PP is widely used in the manufacture of woven sacks (for rice sacks) flexible packaging carpets household appliances and automotive parts

Spot PP prices in southeast Asia have been an uptrend for most of the first half

The PP market begun the year on a bullish note with spot prices surging by almost 10 over the course of two months all-origins PP flat yarn prices peaked at $1295tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia on 2 March

Healthy demand in China helped to provide support to spot prices in southeast Asia in the first quarter with a tight global spot supply leading to further price escalations

Some suppliers pulled back from the southeast Asian spot market to capitalise on better netbacks in other countries including Japan and Pakistan leading to further curtailed spot availability in southeast Asia

The market rally started to lose steam in early March amid subdued demand and a build-up of domestic inventories in China after the Lunar New Year holidays

The bearish sentiment soon spilled over into southeast Asia with Chinese suppliers pushing some volumes into southeast Asia amid an open arbitrage window

Vietnam remains the market of choice for Chinese exporters and PP import prices in the country plummeted as the result of the lengthened spot availability

However the bearish run was short-lived and prices soon bottomed out in early April

Bullish momentum in the upstream crude and naphtha markets propelled spot prices of polymers higher

Despite lacklustre downstream demand price hikes in April and May were commonplace as producers sought higher asking prices in view of narrower margins

TIGHT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT CHINA PP MARKET DESPITE WEAK DEMANDBy Dora Xue

Tight supply would buoy up Chinarsquos polypropylene (PP) prices in the near term despite weak downstream demand

The market is expecting heavy production losses following recent unexpected outages at five domestic facilities from May and scheduled turnarounds at other plants

In the week ended on 1 June domestic prices for PP flat yarn in east China were assessed at Chinese yuan (CNY) 9075tonne after a steady increase from early April according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos import prices for the same material stood at $1245tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China largely tracking movement in the domestic market over the past two months according to ICIS data

The strong PP prices have also started to deter buyers from purchasing more spot cargoes

ldquoPP prices are too high We donrsquot want to store too much in our warehouserdquo a buyer said

Downstream demand typically goes on a lull in June and July but any downward pressure on prices will be negated by a further tightening of supply as major plants will be taken off line for maintenance

ldquoWhen the maintenance season finishes in late June [PP] prices may start to go downrdquo a trader said

Demand is considered weakest at Qingdao in the eastern Shandong province due to government-mandated production cuts and logistics restrictions ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (SCO Summit) on 9-10 June

As of 1 June the combined polyolefin inventories of Chinese petrochemical majors Sinopec and PetroChina have declined back to normal levels of 700000 tonnes from a high of 1m tonnes in early March market sources said

Import supply to China may not improve in the short term as suppliers still deem other

Back to Quick Navigation | 40Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

Back to Quick Navigation | 43Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

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PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 27: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

From then on supply remained tight as the plant under JBF RAK in the UAE and the former MampG plant in the US that had been acquired by Far Eastern remained shut for extended period of time even into 2018

Market players previously had concerns about where China will export its material when final anti-dumping duties (ADD) - heard to be at the same level as thepreliminary duties of 398-530 - wereimposed on its cargoes into Japan inJanuary

Japan was the top exporting destination for Chinese cargoes before the ADD following which the exports dropped drastically

While other producers such as Taiwanese southeast Asian Indian and South Korean producers sold more volumes into Japan Chinese makers sold to other markets that were relinquished by the other producers

Table 1 shows a significant difference between 2016 and 2017 in Chinarsquos export volumes to key destinations from the January-to-March period

Ranked by volume starting with largestvolume as 1

There is an ongoing anti-dumping duty (ADD) investigation by the US on PET cargoes from Brazil Pakistan Indonesia Taiwan and South Korea

The Commerce Department issued the preliminary dumping rates for Indonesia at 1316 South Korea at 881-10141 and Taiwan at 902-1189 in May Final determinations will be issued by 8 November

Even so some producers from the countries under investigation continued to receive buying enquiries from the US amid the current tight supply situation

There will be some upcoming new capacities expected in Q3 as shown in table 2 that may bring about a more balanced supply to meet the demand

The US plant acquired by Far Eastern is estimated to restart in June-July which should also ease the supply tightness

Even with the new capacities and plant restarts market participants think it is unlikely that PET market will return to the oversupply situation seen in the previous years

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian PET markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 25Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Table 2

Our English-language report coverage includes

Styrene MEG Propylene

BTX Methanol Base Oil

BPA PE MTBE

Phenol PP Mixed AromaticsAcetone Oxo-Alcohol

Trusted industryintelligence for Chinarsquoscommodity marketsDevelopments in Chinarsquos petrochemicals industrycontinue to affect the global marketplace It istherefore vital for domestic and internationalmarket players to keep track of changes withinthe country to know where opportunities lie

ICIS has long been recognised as a reliablesource of information our locally-based expertscompile reports and analyses in English tosupport industry participants dealing with Chinamarkets or seeking to trade or invest

Pricing informationOur pricing data provide key insights into pricetrends in China to support your short-termdecision-making negotiations and analyses

bull Import and export spot and contract pricesbull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity

and upstreamdownstream marketsbull Data on inventory levels and price marginsbull Plant and production news

Petrochemicals Analytics SolutionsProviding our customers with a 360-degree view of the Chinese market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker - real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for thenext 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics - key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock anddo wnstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlooks

Available for key chemical commodities

wwwiciscomchina

Discover how we can meet your market information needs

enquiryiciscom

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESMONOETHYLENE GLYCOL (MEG)

ASIA MEG TO SEE DEMAND TAPERING LOWER SUPPLY IN EARLY H2By Eric Su

The Asian monoethylene glycol (MEG) market could see demand slowing down from the end of June while supply will be reduced from a number of plant turnarounds

Inventories are expected to decline in June after offtake rates at Chinese main ports rose sharply in the last two weeks of May because of an uptick in demand from downstream polyester buyers

Demand for MEG is also expected to remain strong in the first half of June boosted by high polyester production rates of above 85 and modestly low inventory levels

A slowdown in demand may take place in the second half of June as the traditional manufacturing peak period nears its end in July

Meanwhile supply conditions could tighten because of the plant turnarounds in northeast Asia

However supply from the Middle East will likely resume to normal levels given that there were no further delay in shipments in May

MEG prices in Asia have registered year-on-year growth rates in the months to June this year

MEG prices have mostly hovered above $900tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China Main Port (CMP) while prices were mostly below $900tonne CFR CMP in 2017

Prices have been volatile in 2018 with major price swings seen on a near monthly basis since February

MEG prices in first quarter of 2018 continued the uptrend seen in the fourth quarter of 2017 rising to $1030tonne CFR CMP in early March from $922tonne CFR

CMP in late December as the higher-than-expected growth in downstream polyester fuelled bullish market sentiment

Polyester growth in 2017 was estimated at above 10 beating an originally bearish expectation of 2-3

A price downtrend was observed in March with the MEG weekly average price losing nearly 10 of its value to $929tonne CFR CMP by end-March

The price decline coincided with a sharp influx of imported cargoes which was likely a result of over-procurement in January

Back to Quick Navigation | 26Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

and February when prices were trending upwards

March 2018 import volumes rose to nearly 1m tonnes a record three-year high according to official China customs data

MEG prices rebounded in April rising by around 9 from end-March to $1014tonne CFR CMP by end-April ahead of the traditional peak period for the downstream polyester sector The average polyester production rate rose to above 85 during the period

MEG also achieved its to-date weekly peak of $1042tonne CFR CMP in the week ending 20 April

Supply tightness was also observed in the Chinese domestic market because of shipment delays from the Middle East and logistical issues at China main ports over the same period

The lack of availability of prompt cargoes also led to an atypical price spread between April and May delivery parcels

Normally the spread between arrived-at-port and far-term arrival cargoes is at $0-10tonne CFR CMP but this widened to $20-30tonne CFR CMP This drove concerns of sharp price adjustments in May once April deliveries were fulfilled

These concerns came true as MEG prices

began to slide in May MEG weekly prices stood at $928tonne CFR CMP in the last week of May falling from $1003tonne CFR CMP in early May

High inventory levels have also weighed on MEG prices Inventory levels were above 900000 tonnes from early May onward rising to 938000 tonnes by in late March Most market participants deemed inventory levels above 900000 tonnes to be high

The increase in inventory levels in May were largely attributed to the arrival of Middle East shipments which were previously due for arrival in April

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian MEG markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 27Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSETHYLENE

NE ASIA ETHYLENE H2 OUTLOOK HINGES ON NEW SUPPLY SM PLANTBy Yeow Pei Lin

Northeast (NE) Asiarsquos ethylene (C2) second-half 2018 outlook is uncertain as several crackers are scheduled for maintenance but such production losses could be offset by the start up of a new plant and cargoes from outside the region

More than 20 crackers in Asia are slated to undergo maintenance in 2018 with the estimated capacity losses totalling more than 185m tonnes Most of the turnarounds in the first half of the year were concentrated in Japan ndash a key exporter to China

However several more companies are to carry out turnarounds in June and the rest of the year

The impact on the regional balance will depend on the start-up progress of a new facility in South Korea and on whether the strong exports from southeast Asia and Europe in the first half of 2018 will continue

Shipments from Yeosu South Korea will start to slow down in August ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at complexes in that region

Exports will recover by December when Lotte Chemical brings on-stream an added capacity of 200000 tonnesyear at its Yeosu cracker

The facility will undergo an expansion during a turnaround from late September to October

Shipments from Ulsan another petrochemical cluster in South Korea will grow in the second half of 2018

Newcomer S-Oil is expected to begin commercial operations at its residue upgrading complex (RUC) in Onsan in the second half of June

The companyrsquos entire ethylene output of up

to around 200000 tonnesyear is intended for the merchant market as it does not have any downstream plants

Exports from southeast Asian producers will continue to be driven by the higher value from ethylene sales in the ethylene versus polyethylene (PE) trade-off

There will however be supply constraints

Four crackers in the region will undergo

maintenance and the affected producers include ExxonMobil and PTT Global Chemicals (PTTGC) that were regular exporters in the first half of 2018

Exports from Europe will likely be influenced by the performance of the PE sector

The outlook for the PE market in Europe is uncertain given the growing prospect of competitively-priced exports from the new US plants

Back to Quick Navigation | 28Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Ethylene costs in the US have been at low levels since early 2018 as production growth outpaces that for consumption

Since late 2017 about 3m tonnesyear of new ethylene capacity and about 35m tonnesyear of new PE capacity have started up in the US

The new crackers have been running well but several of the new PE plants struggled to reach full operating rates

Exports from Saudi Arabia are expected to be constrained by increased domestic consumption

Petro Rabigh announced in April that the last few plants in its Phase 2 project including a 75000 tonneyear ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) unit have started up

The companyrsquos ethylene exports could fall further in the second half of 2018 following the completion of its PE plant maintenance shutdowns earlier in the year

Chinarsquos import demand is poised for further growth when a new 260000 tonneyear styrene monomer (SM) plant starts up in the third quarter as planned

Anhui Haoyuan Chemical will be operating the unit in Fuyang Anhui on a standalone basis as its plans to build a methanol-to-olefin (MTO) plant have been put on hold amid high methanol prices

The plant will require around 78000 tonnes of ethylene annually to operate at maximum capacity

Based on the above factors it was not immediately clear if the ethylene prices in the second half will follow the volatile trend they displayed in the first five months of 2018

NE Asia spot ethylene prices were volatile from January to May as the impact of a heavy regional cracker turnaround schedule and strong Chinese demand was at times outweighed by strong exports from southeast Asia the Middle East and Europe

The market started the year at above a two and a half year high of $1415tonne CFR (cost amp freight) NE Asia in early January

Subsequent transacted prices fluctuated within a low $1200stonne to mid $1300stonne CFR NE Asia band in the five months ended 31 May

Prices in the first quarter were initially weighed down by ample supply from producers in the Middle East and Asia due to a series of PE plant shutdowns - both planned and unplanned

That was despite strong pre-Lunar New Year holiday restocking activities in China

Demand was bolstered by the start up of a 500000 tonneyear non-integrated SM plant and generally healthy downstream margins for producers outside the PE sector

End-users were also keen to build up their inventories because of the slow progress in their 2018 term contract discussions ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at facilities of key exporters in the region

In addition a major ethylene oxide (EO) maker was seeking more import cargoes following a disruption in supply from its upstream MTO unit The plant was shut twice between late November and the first half of February because of high feedstock methanol costs

The market recovered in early March in line with the start of the annual cracker turnaround season in northeast Asia where

scheduled capacity losses in 2018 will be overall higher than the previous year

That explained why the countryrsquos exports from January to April slumped by 14 year-on-year to 201274 tonnes

In late April northeast Asiarsquos spot prices fell again after a surprisingly large quantity of deep-sea spot cargoes were sold into Asia for delivery between the middle of May and the first half of June

There were at least 55000-60000 tonnes of cargoes from Europe in addition to 11000 tonnes of US supply for that delivery period Europe was in a long position because of derivative maintenance shutdowns and production problems

Continued strong exports from southeast Asia owing to downstream production issues and the weak performance of the linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) market contributed to the downbeat sentiment

The ample supply outweighed Chinarsquos robust import demand

Buying interest in China was strong for April and May arrival cargoes on the back

Back to Quick Navigation | 29Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

of healthy downstream margins for certain downstream markets such as SM EO and monoethylene glycol (MEG)

Ethylene buyers in China were also keen to book deep-sea cargoes to offset the expected regional production losses from cracker turnarounds

Prices rebounded quickly in mid-May

aided by a bullish SM market and reduced domestic supply

Some MTO operators lowered production in May as high feedstock methanol costs led to squeezed margins while a key producer in east China lowered its cracker run rates unexpectedly

Sharp increases in feedstock naphtha costs

which tracked gains on crude oil futures also helped set a floor to the earlier price declines

By early June spot ethylene prices had touched a 20-week high raising questions on whether the market will see similar price volatility in the second half of 2018

Producers will turn hawkish if the outlook for crude and naphtha markets remains upbeat

Back to Quick Navigation | 30Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSPROPYLENE

TIGHT NE ASIA PROPYLENE SUPPLY TO LIMIT H2 PRICE FLUCTUATIONSBy Joson Ng

Tight propylene (C3) supply in northeast Asia amid a heavy turnaround schedule in 2018 will continue supporting regional prices of the material into the second half

Sellers are likely to continue passing on firmer costs to buyers which are wary of October when heavy propylene production losses are expected

Buyersrsquo resistance in the key China market would keep any further increase in propylene prices in check with some downstream producers considering cutting output due to high feedstock costs

At the start of June propylene prices have weakened ending the strong general uptrend since end-March amid weakness in Chinarsquos domestic market as demand softened due to turnarounds at downstream polypropylene (PP) plants

However the downward pressure on regional prices may be temporary as overall supply in Asia is expected to be tight

In early June spot propylene prices in northeast Asia were about 9 higher from the start of 2018 according to ICIS data

The year started on a bullish note fuelled by a heavier cracker turnaround schedule compared with 2017 and higher premium levels concluded for contract cargoes

The uptrend was sustained into February due to restocking activities in various import markets in northeast Asia before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February

Before the holidays some South Korean producers were convinced the market will experience supply shortage as both GS Caltexrsquos fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity and Yeochun NCCrsquos (YNCC) cracker ndash which can produce 280000 tonnesyear of propylene ndash were due for maintenance in February through to April

But propylene prices surprisingly weakened from 9 February to end-March without demand support from Chinarsquos weak PP market which struggled through sluggish sales and high inventory after the countryrsquos week-long Lunar New Year holiday

A renewed wave of scheduled turnarounds at regional plants tightened supply and drove up propylene prices in April and May

In Taiwan Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) took its residue fluid catalytic

Back to Quick Navigation | 31Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

cracking (RFCC) unit with a 350000 tonneyear propylene capacity off stream from 1 March to mid-April while CPC Corp shut its 100000 tonneyear FCC unit on 10 April and restarted in early June

In South Korea GS Caltex also had a turnaround at its FCC unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity from 19 February to 5 April

SK Advanced shut its propane dehydrogenated (PDH) unit with 600000 tonneyear propylene capacity on 21 April to early May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian propylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 32Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

To talk to someone about price forecast reports call the numbers below or email us at salesukiciscomAsia-Pacific Europe Africa and Middle East The AmericasTel +65 6789 8828 Tel +44 20 8652 3335 Tel +1 713 525 2600 or Toll free +1 888 525 3255 (US and Canada only)

ICIS price forecast reportsSupply demand and price trends at a glance

ICIS price forecast reports provide a clear view of prices and supply and demand trends for the next 12 months Packed with vital information the report includes everything you need to assess where the market is heading and the impact or opportunity that presents for your business

To find out more or take a trial visit wwwiciscompriceforecast

Price Forecast Window

ICIS price forecasts are now available on the Dashboard channel using the Price Forecast Window which will enable users to

n Chart the price forecast against the last (rolling) twelve months of related price history

n Plot the last 12 months to view forecast progression and ICIS forecast accuracy

n Convert data into different currencies and units and download this data into Excel in order to easily enter into your own calculations

How price forecast reports can help youn Understand the marketUse ICIS price forecast reports to understand where the market is heading and identify the risks and the opportunities for your business What are the major demand developments for your product n Safeguard commercial decisionsUse market information to make better-informed business decisions relating to supply and demand Learn about changes in market capacities What factors will affect supply for you n Budgeting and planningWhether you are planning how much you will be spending in the short-to medium or even long term use the price forecast reports to help assess future prices for your product What will the price of your product be in six monthsrsquo time

Price forecast reports currently

available

Available as price forecast windows only

Polypropylene

Polyethylene

Benzene

StyrenePolystyrene

Methanol

Ethylene

Propylene

Styrene

Asia Europe US Global

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

OLEFINSBUTADIENE

ASIA BD TO FLUCTUATE IN H2 AS SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE SHIFTSBy Helen Yan

Asiarsquos butadiene (BD) spot prices for July shipments are likely to face downward pressure but any price downtrend is likely to reverse when cracker turnarounds start to kick in from September onwards

BD prices are expected to be weighed down before seeing support again in the third quarter as the supply and demand balance shifts during this period

The fourth quarter will likely see support for BD prices although the increases may be tempered by resistance from the downstream synthetic rubber (SR) makers to any significant price hikes

The busy cracker turnaround season in September-November will likely see supply tightening at the same time that demand is expected to pick up during this period

Several crackers and BD units including South Korearsquos Lotte Chemical LG Chem and Chinarsquos Shanghai Secco and Maoming Petrochemical are scheduled to shut during

the September to November time frame

In the near term BD spot prices are likely to continue to trend lower as demand wanes while supply at the same time is expected to lengthen due to an influx of deep-sea cargoes and regional cracker restarts

More than 15000 tonnes of deep-sea cargoes from EU are expected to arrive in Asia in June and July at the same time that crackers in Asia including Indiarsquos Haldia Petrochemical and Indonesiarsquos Chandra Asri resume their production following their maintenance shutdowns

On 8 June spot prices fell to $1725tonne CFR (cost amp freight) northeast (NE) Asia the second consecutive week of decline after spiralling upwards in the two months since early April

BD spot prices had increased by more than 40 since early April peaking at $1800tonne CFR NE Asia on 25 May

Strong demand from derivative acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) makers which were running their plants at optimal rates had bolstered the BD price upsurge during this period

However derivative styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) and polybutadiene rubber (PBR) producers the key consumers of BD cut their production output given the continued erosion in margins

Several major SBR and PBR producers said their margins had fallen into negative territory and retreated from the BD spot market in June

Chinese spot appetite in particular tapered off as domestic BD prices were lower compared with the US dollar-denominated import prices

In China Hangzhou Zhechen Jilin Petrochemical Zhejiang Transfar and Shen Hua Chemical were some of the SBR and PBR plants that are shut for maintenance in June and July

Several SBR and PBR plants in Taiwan and South Korea were also running at lower rates following the 40 BD price spike in the two months from early April to end-May

In South Korea major SR producer Korea Kumho Petrochemical PC was running its SBR and PBR plants at reduced rates

Back to Quick Navigation | 33Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian butadiene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 34Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Similarly Taiwanrsquos TSRC also cut the production output of its SBR and PBR plants

The outlook for the fourth quarter is expected to see a different turn of events with SBR and PBR plants resuming their production and ramping up their operating rates while supply during the last quarter is expected to tighten from the heavy cracker turnaround season

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYETHYLENE (PE)

SOUTHEAST ASIA PE MARKET FACES LONGER H2 SUPPLY WEAK DEMANDBy Felita Widjaja

Southeast Asiarsquos polyethylene (PE) market may be facing longer supply in the second half hinging on how the US-China trade spat plays out amid the regionrsquos weakening demand for imports

Global PE trade flows will be affected should China the biggest importer of spot PE cargoes in the world decide to impose retaliatory 25 tariff on US cargoes

Southeast Asia as an alternative buying region might be hard pressed to absorb additional supply from the US where massive PE capacities recently started up which were meant to cater to huge Chinese demand

Around 5m tonnes of additional US PE capacities are expected from several major projects including those in the pipeline to start up within the second half of 2018

China primarily imports PE cargoes from Asia and the Middle East while the US is its sixth leading PE supplier in 2017

ldquoEventually more substantial and regular volume of US [PE] cargoes are expected to be traded in Asia in the second half of the year as we have yet to see them in the first half of this yearrdquo said a regional trader

Any changes in trade flows would pose challenges to US suppliers in the short term as they would need to revamp their logistics and distribution channels to redirect cargoes to other markets

Suppliers from the Middle East meanwhile might take the opportunity to supply more cargoes to China and would mean fewer volumes available to the southeast Asian market

The Middle East is southeast Asiarsquos major PE supplier

Demand for PE imports in southeast Asia has been weak amid lower prices in

Back to Quick Navigation | 35Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

the domestic markets as in the case of Thailand

ldquoThai traders are not keen to import as local prices are more competitive so they do not have the margin to sell the imported cargoes in local market Only some converters who need specific cargoes continue to importrdquo said a local Thai trader

Malaysia and Indonesia with predominantly Muslim populations have seen market activity slow down since mid-May when the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan started Ramadan ends with the Eid ul-Fitr holiday on 15 June

The Indonesian government has declared a longer Eid-ul Fitr holiday this year from 11-20 June

Markets in Singapore and the Philippines will be closed for the mid-June holiday as well

With supply expected to become long some market players expect regional PE prices in July and August to ease from

June with restocking activities expected to kick in towards the end of the third quarter

In the first half of 2018 southeast Asiarsquos average prices for commodity PE were largely stable to firm owing to suppliersrsquo relatively comfortable-to-tight supply for most of the period

At the start of June high density polyethylene (HDPE) film grade prices averaged $1395tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia while linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) film were at $1210tonne CFR SE Asia and $1265tonne CFR SE Asia respectively according to ICIS data

Prices had spiked in the first quarter as suppliers were holding comfortable-to-tight inventory as several regional producers have scheduled turnarounds at their plants in March Production issues and shutdowns in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia also limited availability of imports to southeast Asia during this period

Supply for HDPE film was particularly tight as some producers from the Middle East as well as Asia switched their focus into making HDPE pipe grade amid robust demand and better netbacks

The price uptrend across most PE grades could not be sustained in the second quarter although prices remained relatively stable-to-firm

The depreciation of local currencies in southeast Asia against the US dollar in most of the second quarter was also curbing overall demand for imports A weaker currency makes US dollar-denominated imports expensive

ldquoIndonesian buyers have not been buying much cargoes as the market slowed down during Ramadan and also because of weak rupiah which led the central bank to increase interest rate to limit the depreciationrdquo said a regional producer

CHINA PE IMPORTS TO STAY STRONG AMID DOMESTIC PLANT TURNAROUNDS By Angie Li

Chinarsquos polyethylene (PE) imports are expected to remain strong for the rest of the year after posting record volumes in January to April 2018 amid scheduled turnarounds at domestic facilities

Buyers in China have been accumulating imported PE cargoes as these were priced lower compared futures prices since the start of the year

More cargoes will be available to China as new capacities in the US are expected to boost production

For the month of May the countryrsquos PE imports are projected to reach 12m tonnes higher than the monthly average in the first four months of 2018

In January to April 2018 its PE imports volumes totaled 447m tonnes up by 12 from the previous corresponding period according to industry sources

The import volumes were making up for the production losses in the domestic market due to scheduled turnarounds

On 1 June low density PE (LDPE) imports were assessed at $1155-1180tonne linear low density PE (LLDPE) stood at $1150-1170tonne while high density PE (HDPE) film products were at $1340-1400tonne according to ICIS data

The prices have increased 15-62 from end-March but the gains came in lower than market playersrsquo expectations considering the heavy production loss due to turnarounds from April

Back to Quick Navigation | 36Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

An estimated 500000 tonnes are expected to be shaved in the second quarter due to scheduled maintenance at domestic facilities according ICIS data

ldquoWe thought the hefty plant turnarounds in the second quarter should lead to a surge in PE prices but the LDPE and LLDPE prices were less than satisfactory although HDPE prices [were] highrdquo said an east China-based trader referring to both the import and domestic PE prices

Strong imports amid hedging activities bloated the total supply in China in January to April to 998m tonnes up by 8 from the previous corresponding period with supply of LDPE and LLDPE up by 14 and 8 respectively market sources said

Imports of HDPE inched up by 2 over the same period given the gradersquos comparatively higher prices compared with LLDPE and LDPE

Increased availability due to recent capacity expansions and start-ups in Asia the Middle East also fuels Chinarsquos appetite for import cargoes

In the first quarter of 2018 additional cargoes from Saudi Arabia were mostly from Sadara Chemical which started up its 750000 tonneyear swing plant and 350000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Al Jubail during late 2016 and early 2017 respectively

Cargoes of Iran origin augmented the total volume from the UAE as market players try to go around the financial sanctions on Tehran Kordestan Petrochemicalrsquos 300000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Iran came on stream in March 2017

UAErsquos Borouge has also ramped up pipe and HDPE film exports to China during the period according to a supplier in the Middle East

Meanwhile PE imports from Singapore surged 38 year on year while those from India more than doubled to 127000 tonnes according to China Customs data

The ban on waste plastics implemented in China in the year also bolstered imports of virgin PE Some waste plastics processed overseas and then re-entered the market as virgin products but these volumes were limited

Last year China has imported 194m tonnes of PE waste plastics while

volumes in 2018 will be negligible with the implemention of the ban

Chinarsquos PE production this year is expected to increase by around 7 to about 17m tonnes in 2018 with imports projected to grow by 102 to around 13m tonnes according to a source from state-owned petrochemical giant PetroChina

Domestic demand for PE on the other hand is forecast to grow by 8 this year mainly from the packaging and pipe markets

Chinarsquos ongoing campaign to switch to using gas for power generation instead of coal is expected to continue boosting demand for PE gas pipes this year

The packaging industry will also drive up PE consumption underpinned by growth in electronic commerce Chinarsquos express delivery volumes reached 137bn packages during January-April 2018 based on data from the recent China Express Industry Development Conference in May

Back to Quick Navigation | 37Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 38Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

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bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

By Jonathan Lopez

ICIS NewsThe leading news service for real-time ground breaking news and analysis on the global petrochemicals markets

The ICIS News services give you unrivalled access to the most in-depth stories impacting the petrochemicals markets influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions

Our team of global editors are reporting around the clock to bring you the latest news and analysis so that you get the full picture of market and pricing developments first providing you with invaluable foresight to take advantage of every opportunity and to stay ahead of your competitors

With ICIS News you will be the first to read

Breaking news on the chemical markets that will impact your business

News on market moves deals and announcements that will affect your organisation

Force majeures closures and developments that influence your commodity prices

Expert analysis on industry trends and hot topics ndash know whatrsquos happening and why

Searchable archive with over 14 million articles from the past 10 years

Chemical Business News Base (CBNB) is a premium resource available on ICIS News It provides you with an extensive external source of upstream and downstream petrochemical news in summarised snapshots so you can quickly and easily get the latest updates on whatrsquos important to you

CBNB offers readers

Fast and consistent coverage on news facts figures from the upstream and downstream petrochemicals industry

Access to over 700 news sources including technical and trade journals company literature market research reports stockbroker reports books and directories

User-friendly search functionality to find articles most relevant to you from around the globe

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ICIS Chemical Business digital magazine (ICB) Our global team of experts digests and summarises the key issues and their potential impact on the chemical markets offering a comprehensive overview of the key developments that matter most-along with informed opinion and in-depth analysis

ICB features include

In-depth insight into chemical price changes and their impact on the markets

Understand the detail behind the headline news stories

Find out about supply amp demand trends and the factors impacting them

Get the complete picture of the chemical markets ndash all in one e-magazine

Easy access via e-magazine and premium magazine website

Find out more wwwiciscomnews

ICIS News offers access to additional sources including the ICIS Chemical Business Magazine and Chemical Business News Base (CBNB)

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYPROPYLENE (PP)

SE ASIA PP PRICES MAY COME UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 AS SUPPLY LENGTHENSBy Leanne Tan

Southeast Asiarsquos polypropylene (PP) market may come under pressure in the second half of the year on account of lengthening regional supply and weak downstream demand

Spot prices have been on the rise for most of May buoyed by bullish sentiment in the Chinese market and firm upstream feedstock costs

Margins for PP makers have been lower on average compared with levels in the previous year

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refinery amp Petrochemicals is scheduled to start up its 400000 tonneyear PP production unit in the third quarter The project was initially scheduled to start up in the first quarter of 2018

While domestic demand will continue to outstrip local production the countryrsquos reliance on imports may be diminished when the new plant starts up

Converters in the country have been opting to keep inventories lean in the short term amid expectations that prices may eventually weaken when more domestic supply becomes available

ldquoBuyers donrsquot want to buy too much import cargoes now not just because prices are high but also because there will be more locally-produced materials very soonrdquo a Vietnamese trader said

In Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan is expected to start commercial production at its expanded PP facility in Pasir Gudang in June or July The plantrsquos capacity will be raised by 200000 tonnesyear from 400000 tonnesyear

Import availabilities from South Korea are expected to lengthen in the medium-to-long term with S-Oil expected to complete an olefin downstream complex (ODC) at its Onsan refinery in Ulsan which will include a

405000 tonneyear PP capacity

On the demand front weakness is likely to persist in the second half with converters and end-users likely to continue buying spot cargoes on a hand-to-mouth basis

Indonesiarsquos demand in particular has been below expectations since the start of 2018 and this is likely to continue in the second half of the year according to market players

Back to Quick Navigation | 39Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Some players said import demand for dutiable cargoes may increase in the second half of the year as this is typically when the government issues duty exemption facilities

The duty exemption facilities are issued on a yearly basis which enable converters to import some PP volumes without extra cost

In Malaysia the removal of the 6 goods and services tax (GST) so far has had no immediate impact on the PP market although there are some expectations the move could potentially boost demand in the consumer market further down the road

In Vietnam demand for PP flat yarn has entered a seasonal lull from May to early July and will not pick up until August when the summer harvest begins

PP is widely used in the manufacture of woven sacks (for rice sacks) flexible packaging carpets household appliances and automotive parts

Spot PP prices in southeast Asia have been an uptrend for most of the first half

The PP market begun the year on a bullish note with spot prices surging by almost 10 over the course of two months all-origins PP flat yarn prices peaked at $1295tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia on 2 March

Healthy demand in China helped to provide support to spot prices in southeast Asia in the first quarter with a tight global spot supply leading to further price escalations

Some suppliers pulled back from the southeast Asian spot market to capitalise on better netbacks in other countries including Japan and Pakistan leading to further curtailed spot availability in southeast Asia

The market rally started to lose steam in early March amid subdued demand and a build-up of domestic inventories in China after the Lunar New Year holidays

The bearish sentiment soon spilled over into southeast Asia with Chinese suppliers pushing some volumes into southeast Asia amid an open arbitrage window

Vietnam remains the market of choice for Chinese exporters and PP import prices in the country plummeted as the result of the lengthened spot availability

However the bearish run was short-lived and prices soon bottomed out in early April

Bullish momentum in the upstream crude and naphtha markets propelled spot prices of polymers higher

Despite lacklustre downstream demand price hikes in April and May were commonplace as producers sought higher asking prices in view of narrower margins

TIGHT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT CHINA PP MARKET DESPITE WEAK DEMANDBy Dora Xue

Tight supply would buoy up Chinarsquos polypropylene (PP) prices in the near term despite weak downstream demand

The market is expecting heavy production losses following recent unexpected outages at five domestic facilities from May and scheduled turnarounds at other plants

In the week ended on 1 June domestic prices for PP flat yarn in east China were assessed at Chinese yuan (CNY) 9075tonne after a steady increase from early April according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos import prices for the same material stood at $1245tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China largely tracking movement in the domestic market over the past two months according to ICIS data

The strong PP prices have also started to deter buyers from purchasing more spot cargoes

ldquoPP prices are too high We donrsquot want to store too much in our warehouserdquo a buyer said

Downstream demand typically goes on a lull in June and July but any downward pressure on prices will be negated by a further tightening of supply as major plants will be taken off line for maintenance

ldquoWhen the maintenance season finishes in late June [PP] prices may start to go downrdquo a trader said

Demand is considered weakest at Qingdao in the eastern Shandong province due to government-mandated production cuts and logistics restrictions ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (SCO Summit) on 9-10 June

As of 1 June the combined polyolefin inventories of Chinese petrochemical majors Sinopec and PetroChina have declined back to normal levels of 700000 tonnes from a high of 1m tonnes in early March market sources said

Import supply to China may not improve in the short term as suppliers still deem other

Back to Quick Navigation | 40Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

Back to Quick Navigation | 43Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 28: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

Our English-language report coverage includes

Styrene MEG Propylene

BTX Methanol Base Oil

BPA PE MTBE

Phenol PP Mixed AromaticsAcetone Oxo-Alcohol

Trusted industryintelligence for Chinarsquoscommodity marketsDevelopments in Chinarsquos petrochemicals industrycontinue to affect the global marketplace It istherefore vital for domestic and internationalmarket players to keep track of changes withinthe country to know where opportunities lie

ICIS has long been recognised as a reliablesource of information our locally-based expertscompile reports and analyses in English tosupport industry participants dealing with Chinamarkets or seeking to trade or invest

Pricing informationOur pricing data provide key insights into pricetrends in China to support your short-termdecision-making negotiations and analyses

bull Import and export spot and contract pricesbull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity

and upstreamdownstream marketsbull Data on inventory levels and price marginsbull Plant and production news

Petrochemicals Analytics SolutionsProviding our customers with a 360-degree view of the Chinese market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker - real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for thenext 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics - key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock anddo wnstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlooks

Available for key chemical commodities

wwwiciscomchina

Discover how we can meet your market information needs

enquiryiciscom

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESMONOETHYLENE GLYCOL (MEG)

ASIA MEG TO SEE DEMAND TAPERING LOWER SUPPLY IN EARLY H2By Eric Su

The Asian monoethylene glycol (MEG) market could see demand slowing down from the end of June while supply will be reduced from a number of plant turnarounds

Inventories are expected to decline in June after offtake rates at Chinese main ports rose sharply in the last two weeks of May because of an uptick in demand from downstream polyester buyers

Demand for MEG is also expected to remain strong in the first half of June boosted by high polyester production rates of above 85 and modestly low inventory levels

A slowdown in demand may take place in the second half of June as the traditional manufacturing peak period nears its end in July

Meanwhile supply conditions could tighten because of the plant turnarounds in northeast Asia

However supply from the Middle East will likely resume to normal levels given that there were no further delay in shipments in May

MEG prices in Asia have registered year-on-year growth rates in the months to June this year

MEG prices have mostly hovered above $900tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China Main Port (CMP) while prices were mostly below $900tonne CFR CMP in 2017

Prices have been volatile in 2018 with major price swings seen on a near monthly basis since February

MEG prices in first quarter of 2018 continued the uptrend seen in the fourth quarter of 2017 rising to $1030tonne CFR CMP in early March from $922tonne CFR

CMP in late December as the higher-than-expected growth in downstream polyester fuelled bullish market sentiment

Polyester growth in 2017 was estimated at above 10 beating an originally bearish expectation of 2-3

A price downtrend was observed in March with the MEG weekly average price losing nearly 10 of its value to $929tonne CFR CMP by end-March

The price decline coincided with a sharp influx of imported cargoes which was likely a result of over-procurement in January

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and February when prices were trending upwards

March 2018 import volumes rose to nearly 1m tonnes a record three-year high according to official China customs data

MEG prices rebounded in April rising by around 9 from end-March to $1014tonne CFR CMP by end-April ahead of the traditional peak period for the downstream polyester sector The average polyester production rate rose to above 85 during the period

MEG also achieved its to-date weekly peak of $1042tonne CFR CMP in the week ending 20 April

Supply tightness was also observed in the Chinese domestic market because of shipment delays from the Middle East and logistical issues at China main ports over the same period

The lack of availability of prompt cargoes also led to an atypical price spread between April and May delivery parcels

Normally the spread between arrived-at-port and far-term arrival cargoes is at $0-10tonne CFR CMP but this widened to $20-30tonne CFR CMP This drove concerns of sharp price adjustments in May once April deliveries were fulfilled

These concerns came true as MEG prices

began to slide in May MEG weekly prices stood at $928tonne CFR CMP in the last week of May falling from $1003tonne CFR CMP in early May

High inventory levels have also weighed on MEG prices Inventory levels were above 900000 tonnes from early May onward rising to 938000 tonnes by in late March Most market participants deemed inventory levels above 900000 tonnes to be high

The increase in inventory levels in May were largely attributed to the arrival of Middle East shipments which were previously due for arrival in April

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian MEG markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 27Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSETHYLENE

NE ASIA ETHYLENE H2 OUTLOOK HINGES ON NEW SUPPLY SM PLANTBy Yeow Pei Lin

Northeast (NE) Asiarsquos ethylene (C2) second-half 2018 outlook is uncertain as several crackers are scheduled for maintenance but such production losses could be offset by the start up of a new plant and cargoes from outside the region

More than 20 crackers in Asia are slated to undergo maintenance in 2018 with the estimated capacity losses totalling more than 185m tonnes Most of the turnarounds in the first half of the year were concentrated in Japan ndash a key exporter to China

However several more companies are to carry out turnarounds in June and the rest of the year

The impact on the regional balance will depend on the start-up progress of a new facility in South Korea and on whether the strong exports from southeast Asia and Europe in the first half of 2018 will continue

Shipments from Yeosu South Korea will start to slow down in August ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at complexes in that region

Exports will recover by December when Lotte Chemical brings on-stream an added capacity of 200000 tonnesyear at its Yeosu cracker

The facility will undergo an expansion during a turnaround from late September to October

Shipments from Ulsan another petrochemical cluster in South Korea will grow in the second half of 2018

Newcomer S-Oil is expected to begin commercial operations at its residue upgrading complex (RUC) in Onsan in the second half of June

The companyrsquos entire ethylene output of up

to around 200000 tonnesyear is intended for the merchant market as it does not have any downstream plants

Exports from southeast Asian producers will continue to be driven by the higher value from ethylene sales in the ethylene versus polyethylene (PE) trade-off

There will however be supply constraints

Four crackers in the region will undergo

maintenance and the affected producers include ExxonMobil and PTT Global Chemicals (PTTGC) that were regular exporters in the first half of 2018

Exports from Europe will likely be influenced by the performance of the PE sector

The outlook for the PE market in Europe is uncertain given the growing prospect of competitively-priced exports from the new US plants

Back to Quick Navigation | 28Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Ethylene costs in the US have been at low levels since early 2018 as production growth outpaces that for consumption

Since late 2017 about 3m tonnesyear of new ethylene capacity and about 35m tonnesyear of new PE capacity have started up in the US

The new crackers have been running well but several of the new PE plants struggled to reach full operating rates

Exports from Saudi Arabia are expected to be constrained by increased domestic consumption

Petro Rabigh announced in April that the last few plants in its Phase 2 project including a 75000 tonneyear ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) unit have started up

The companyrsquos ethylene exports could fall further in the second half of 2018 following the completion of its PE plant maintenance shutdowns earlier in the year

Chinarsquos import demand is poised for further growth when a new 260000 tonneyear styrene monomer (SM) plant starts up in the third quarter as planned

Anhui Haoyuan Chemical will be operating the unit in Fuyang Anhui on a standalone basis as its plans to build a methanol-to-olefin (MTO) plant have been put on hold amid high methanol prices

The plant will require around 78000 tonnes of ethylene annually to operate at maximum capacity

Based on the above factors it was not immediately clear if the ethylene prices in the second half will follow the volatile trend they displayed in the first five months of 2018

NE Asia spot ethylene prices were volatile from January to May as the impact of a heavy regional cracker turnaround schedule and strong Chinese demand was at times outweighed by strong exports from southeast Asia the Middle East and Europe

The market started the year at above a two and a half year high of $1415tonne CFR (cost amp freight) NE Asia in early January

Subsequent transacted prices fluctuated within a low $1200stonne to mid $1300stonne CFR NE Asia band in the five months ended 31 May

Prices in the first quarter were initially weighed down by ample supply from producers in the Middle East and Asia due to a series of PE plant shutdowns - both planned and unplanned

That was despite strong pre-Lunar New Year holiday restocking activities in China

Demand was bolstered by the start up of a 500000 tonneyear non-integrated SM plant and generally healthy downstream margins for producers outside the PE sector

End-users were also keen to build up their inventories because of the slow progress in their 2018 term contract discussions ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at facilities of key exporters in the region

In addition a major ethylene oxide (EO) maker was seeking more import cargoes following a disruption in supply from its upstream MTO unit The plant was shut twice between late November and the first half of February because of high feedstock methanol costs

The market recovered in early March in line with the start of the annual cracker turnaround season in northeast Asia where

scheduled capacity losses in 2018 will be overall higher than the previous year

That explained why the countryrsquos exports from January to April slumped by 14 year-on-year to 201274 tonnes

In late April northeast Asiarsquos spot prices fell again after a surprisingly large quantity of deep-sea spot cargoes were sold into Asia for delivery between the middle of May and the first half of June

There were at least 55000-60000 tonnes of cargoes from Europe in addition to 11000 tonnes of US supply for that delivery period Europe was in a long position because of derivative maintenance shutdowns and production problems

Continued strong exports from southeast Asia owing to downstream production issues and the weak performance of the linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) market contributed to the downbeat sentiment

The ample supply outweighed Chinarsquos robust import demand

Buying interest in China was strong for April and May arrival cargoes on the back

Back to Quick Navigation | 29Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

of healthy downstream margins for certain downstream markets such as SM EO and monoethylene glycol (MEG)

Ethylene buyers in China were also keen to book deep-sea cargoes to offset the expected regional production losses from cracker turnarounds

Prices rebounded quickly in mid-May

aided by a bullish SM market and reduced domestic supply

Some MTO operators lowered production in May as high feedstock methanol costs led to squeezed margins while a key producer in east China lowered its cracker run rates unexpectedly

Sharp increases in feedstock naphtha costs

which tracked gains on crude oil futures also helped set a floor to the earlier price declines

By early June spot ethylene prices had touched a 20-week high raising questions on whether the market will see similar price volatility in the second half of 2018

Producers will turn hawkish if the outlook for crude and naphtha markets remains upbeat

Back to Quick Navigation | 30Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSPROPYLENE

TIGHT NE ASIA PROPYLENE SUPPLY TO LIMIT H2 PRICE FLUCTUATIONSBy Joson Ng

Tight propylene (C3) supply in northeast Asia amid a heavy turnaround schedule in 2018 will continue supporting regional prices of the material into the second half

Sellers are likely to continue passing on firmer costs to buyers which are wary of October when heavy propylene production losses are expected

Buyersrsquo resistance in the key China market would keep any further increase in propylene prices in check with some downstream producers considering cutting output due to high feedstock costs

At the start of June propylene prices have weakened ending the strong general uptrend since end-March amid weakness in Chinarsquos domestic market as demand softened due to turnarounds at downstream polypropylene (PP) plants

However the downward pressure on regional prices may be temporary as overall supply in Asia is expected to be tight

In early June spot propylene prices in northeast Asia were about 9 higher from the start of 2018 according to ICIS data

The year started on a bullish note fuelled by a heavier cracker turnaround schedule compared with 2017 and higher premium levels concluded for contract cargoes

The uptrend was sustained into February due to restocking activities in various import markets in northeast Asia before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February

Before the holidays some South Korean producers were convinced the market will experience supply shortage as both GS Caltexrsquos fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity and Yeochun NCCrsquos (YNCC) cracker ndash which can produce 280000 tonnesyear of propylene ndash were due for maintenance in February through to April

But propylene prices surprisingly weakened from 9 February to end-March without demand support from Chinarsquos weak PP market which struggled through sluggish sales and high inventory after the countryrsquos week-long Lunar New Year holiday

A renewed wave of scheduled turnarounds at regional plants tightened supply and drove up propylene prices in April and May

In Taiwan Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) took its residue fluid catalytic

Back to Quick Navigation | 31Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

cracking (RFCC) unit with a 350000 tonneyear propylene capacity off stream from 1 March to mid-April while CPC Corp shut its 100000 tonneyear FCC unit on 10 April and restarted in early June

In South Korea GS Caltex also had a turnaround at its FCC unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity from 19 February to 5 April

SK Advanced shut its propane dehydrogenated (PDH) unit with 600000 tonneyear propylene capacity on 21 April to early May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian propylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 32Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

To talk to someone about price forecast reports call the numbers below or email us at salesukiciscomAsia-Pacific Europe Africa and Middle East The AmericasTel +65 6789 8828 Tel +44 20 8652 3335 Tel +1 713 525 2600 or Toll free +1 888 525 3255 (US and Canada only)

ICIS price forecast reportsSupply demand and price trends at a glance

ICIS price forecast reports provide a clear view of prices and supply and demand trends for the next 12 months Packed with vital information the report includes everything you need to assess where the market is heading and the impact or opportunity that presents for your business

To find out more or take a trial visit wwwiciscompriceforecast

Price Forecast Window

ICIS price forecasts are now available on the Dashboard channel using the Price Forecast Window which will enable users to

n Chart the price forecast against the last (rolling) twelve months of related price history

n Plot the last 12 months to view forecast progression and ICIS forecast accuracy

n Convert data into different currencies and units and download this data into Excel in order to easily enter into your own calculations

How price forecast reports can help youn Understand the marketUse ICIS price forecast reports to understand where the market is heading and identify the risks and the opportunities for your business What are the major demand developments for your product n Safeguard commercial decisionsUse market information to make better-informed business decisions relating to supply and demand Learn about changes in market capacities What factors will affect supply for you n Budgeting and planningWhether you are planning how much you will be spending in the short-to medium or even long term use the price forecast reports to help assess future prices for your product What will the price of your product be in six monthsrsquo time

Price forecast reports currently

available

Available as price forecast windows only

Polypropylene

Polyethylene

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StyrenePolystyrene

Methanol

Ethylene

Propylene

Styrene

Asia Europe US Global

3

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3

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3

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3

3

3

3

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3

3

3

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3

3

OLEFINSBUTADIENE

ASIA BD TO FLUCTUATE IN H2 AS SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE SHIFTSBy Helen Yan

Asiarsquos butadiene (BD) spot prices for July shipments are likely to face downward pressure but any price downtrend is likely to reverse when cracker turnarounds start to kick in from September onwards

BD prices are expected to be weighed down before seeing support again in the third quarter as the supply and demand balance shifts during this period

The fourth quarter will likely see support for BD prices although the increases may be tempered by resistance from the downstream synthetic rubber (SR) makers to any significant price hikes

The busy cracker turnaround season in September-November will likely see supply tightening at the same time that demand is expected to pick up during this period

Several crackers and BD units including South Korearsquos Lotte Chemical LG Chem and Chinarsquos Shanghai Secco and Maoming Petrochemical are scheduled to shut during

the September to November time frame

In the near term BD spot prices are likely to continue to trend lower as demand wanes while supply at the same time is expected to lengthen due to an influx of deep-sea cargoes and regional cracker restarts

More than 15000 tonnes of deep-sea cargoes from EU are expected to arrive in Asia in June and July at the same time that crackers in Asia including Indiarsquos Haldia Petrochemical and Indonesiarsquos Chandra Asri resume their production following their maintenance shutdowns

On 8 June spot prices fell to $1725tonne CFR (cost amp freight) northeast (NE) Asia the second consecutive week of decline after spiralling upwards in the two months since early April

BD spot prices had increased by more than 40 since early April peaking at $1800tonne CFR NE Asia on 25 May

Strong demand from derivative acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) makers which were running their plants at optimal rates had bolstered the BD price upsurge during this period

However derivative styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) and polybutadiene rubber (PBR) producers the key consumers of BD cut their production output given the continued erosion in margins

Several major SBR and PBR producers said their margins had fallen into negative territory and retreated from the BD spot market in June

Chinese spot appetite in particular tapered off as domestic BD prices were lower compared with the US dollar-denominated import prices

In China Hangzhou Zhechen Jilin Petrochemical Zhejiang Transfar and Shen Hua Chemical were some of the SBR and PBR plants that are shut for maintenance in June and July

Several SBR and PBR plants in Taiwan and South Korea were also running at lower rates following the 40 BD price spike in the two months from early April to end-May

In South Korea major SR producer Korea Kumho Petrochemical PC was running its SBR and PBR plants at reduced rates

Back to Quick Navigation | 33Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian butadiene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 34Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Similarly Taiwanrsquos TSRC also cut the production output of its SBR and PBR plants

The outlook for the fourth quarter is expected to see a different turn of events with SBR and PBR plants resuming their production and ramping up their operating rates while supply during the last quarter is expected to tighten from the heavy cracker turnaround season

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYETHYLENE (PE)

SOUTHEAST ASIA PE MARKET FACES LONGER H2 SUPPLY WEAK DEMANDBy Felita Widjaja

Southeast Asiarsquos polyethylene (PE) market may be facing longer supply in the second half hinging on how the US-China trade spat plays out amid the regionrsquos weakening demand for imports

Global PE trade flows will be affected should China the biggest importer of spot PE cargoes in the world decide to impose retaliatory 25 tariff on US cargoes

Southeast Asia as an alternative buying region might be hard pressed to absorb additional supply from the US where massive PE capacities recently started up which were meant to cater to huge Chinese demand

Around 5m tonnes of additional US PE capacities are expected from several major projects including those in the pipeline to start up within the second half of 2018

China primarily imports PE cargoes from Asia and the Middle East while the US is its sixth leading PE supplier in 2017

ldquoEventually more substantial and regular volume of US [PE] cargoes are expected to be traded in Asia in the second half of the year as we have yet to see them in the first half of this yearrdquo said a regional trader

Any changes in trade flows would pose challenges to US suppliers in the short term as they would need to revamp their logistics and distribution channels to redirect cargoes to other markets

Suppliers from the Middle East meanwhile might take the opportunity to supply more cargoes to China and would mean fewer volumes available to the southeast Asian market

The Middle East is southeast Asiarsquos major PE supplier

Demand for PE imports in southeast Asia has been weak amid lower prices in

Back to Quick Navigation | 35Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

the domestic markets as in the case of Thailand

ldquoThai traders are not keen to import as local prices are more competitive so they do not have the margin to sell the imported cargoes in local market Only some converters who need specific cargoes continue to importrdquo said a local Thai trader

Malaysia and Indonesia with predominantly Muslim populations have seen market activity slow down since mid-May when the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan started Ramadan ends with the Eid ul-Fitr holiday on 15 June

The Indonesian government has declared a longer Eid-ul Fitr holiday this year from 11-20 June

Markets in Singapore and the Philippines will be closed for the mid-June holiday as well

With supply expected to become long some market players expect regional PE prices in July and August to ease from

June with restocking activities expected to kick in towards the end of the third quarter

In the first half of 2018 southeast Asiarsquos average prices for commodity PE were largely stable to firm owing to suppliersrsquo relatively comfortable-to-tight supply for most of the period

At the start of June high density polyethylene (HDPE) film grade prices averaged $1395tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia while linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) film were at $1210tonne CFR SE Asia and $1265tonne CFR SE Asia respectively according to ICIS data

Prices had spiked in the first quarter as suppliers were holding comfortable-to-tight inventory as several regional producers have scheduled turnarounds at their plants in March Production issues and shutdowns in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia also limited availability of imports to southeast Asia during this period

Supply for HDPE film was particularly tight as some producers from the Middle East as well as Asia switched their focus into making HDPE pipe grade amid robust demand and better netbacks

The price uptrend across most PE grades could not be sustained in the second quarter although prices remained relatively stable-to-firm

The depreciation of local currencies in southeast Asia against the US dollar in most of the second quarter was also curbing overall demand for imports A weaker currency makes US dollar-denominated imports expensive

ldquoIndonesian buyers have not been buying much cargoes as the market slowed down during Ramadan and also because of weak rupiah which led the central bank to increase interest rate to limit the depreciationrdquo said a regional producer

CHINA PE IMPORTS TO STAY STRONG AMID DOMESTIC PLANT TURNAROUNDS By Angie Li

Chinarsquos polyethylene (PE) imports are expected to remain strong for the rest of the year after posting record volumes in January to April 2018 amid scheduled turnarounds at domestic facilities

Buyers in China have been accumulating imported PE cargoes as these were priced lower compared futures prices since the start of the year

More cargoes will be available to China as new capacities in the US are expected to boost production

For the month of May the countryrsquos PE imports are projected to reach 12m tonnes higher than the monthly average in the first four months of 2018

In January to April 2018 its PE imports volumes totaled 447m tonnes up by 12 from the previous corresponding period according to industry sources

The import volumes were making up for the production losses in the domestic market due to scheduled turnarounds

On 1 June low density PE (LDPE) imports were assessed at $1155-1180tonne linear low density PE (LLDPE) stood at $1150-1170tonne while high density PE (HDPE) film products were at $1340-1400tonne according to ICIS data

The prices have increased 15-62 from end-March but the gains came in lower than market playersrsquo expectations considering the heavy production loss due to turnarounds from April

Back to Quick Navigation | 36Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

An estimated 500000 tonnes are expected to be shaved in the second quarter due to scheduled maintenance at domestic facilities according ICIS data

ldquoWe thought the hefty plant turnarounds in the second quarter should lead to a surge in PE prices but the LDPE and LLDPE prices were less than satisfactory although HDPE prices [were] highrdquo said an east China-based trader referring to both the import and domestic PE prices

Strong imports amid hedging activities bloated the total supply in China in January to April to 998m tonnes up by 8 from the previous corresponding period with supply of LDPE and LLDPE up by 14 and 8 respectively market sources said

Imports of HDPE inched up by 2 over the same period given the gradersquos comparatively higher prices compared with LLDPE and LDPE

Increased availability due to recent capacity expansions and start-ups in Asia the Middle East also fuels Chinarsquos appetite for import cargoes

In the first quarter of 2018 additional cargoes from Saudi Arabia were mostly from Sadara Chemical which started up its 750000 tonneyear swing plant and 350000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Al Jubail during late 2016 and early 2017 respectively

Cargoes of Iran origin augmented the total volume from the UAE as market players try to go around the financial sanctions on Tehran Kordestan Petrochemicalrsquos 300000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Iran came on stream in March 2017

UAErsquos Borouge has also ramped up pipe and HDPE film exports to China during the period according to a supplier in the Middle East

Meanwhile PE imports from Singapore surged 38 year on year while those from India more than doubled to 127000 tonnes according to China Customs data

The ban on waste plastics implemented in China in the year also bolstered imports of virgin PE Some waste plastics processed overseas and then re-entered the market as virgin products but these volumes were limited

Last year China has imported 194m tonnes of PE waste plastics while

volumes in 2018 will be negligible with the implemention of the ban

Chinarsquos PE production this year is expected to increase by around 7 to about 17m tonnes in 2018 with imports projected to grow by 102 to around 13m tonnes according to a source from state-owned petrochemical giant PetroChina

Domestic demand for PE on the other hand is forecast to grow by 8 this year mainly from the packaging and pipe markets

Chinarsquos ongoing campaign to switch to using gas for power generation instead of coal is expected to continue boosting demand for PE gas pipes this year

The packaging industry will also drive up PE consumption underpinned by growth in electronic commerce Chinarsquos express delivery volumes reached 137bn packages during January-April 2018 based on data from the recent China Express Industry Development Conference in May

Back to Quick Navigation | 37Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 38Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

By Jonathan Lopez

ICIS NewsThe leading news service for real-time ground breaking news and analysis on the global petrochemicals markets

The ICIS News services give you unrivalled access to the most in-depth stories impacting the petrochemicals markets influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions

Our team of global editors are reporting around the clock to bring you the latest news and analysis so that you get the full picture of market and pricing developments first providing you with invaluable foresight to take advantage of every opportunity and to stay ahead of your competitors

With ICIS News you will be the first to read

Breaking news on the chemical markets that will impact your business

News on market moves deals and announcements that will affect your organisation

Force majeures closures and developments that influence your commodity prices

Expert analysis on industry trends and hot topics ndash know whatrsquos happening and why

Searchable archive with over 14 million articles from the past 10 years

Chemical Business News Base (CBNB) is a premium resource available on ICIS News It provides you with an extensive external source of upstream and downstream petrochemical news in summarised snapshots so you can quickly and easily get the latest updates on whatrsquos important to you

CBNB offers readers

Fast and consistent coverage on news facts figures from the upstream and downstream petrochemicals industry

Access to over 700 news sources including technical and trade journals company literature market research reports stockbroker reports books and directories

User-friendly search functionality to find articles most relevant to you from around the globe

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ICB features include

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Understand the detail behind the headline news stories

Find out about supply amp demand trends and the factors impacting them

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ICIS News offers access to additional sources including the ICIS Chemical Business Magazine and Chemical Business News Base (CBNB)

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYPROPYLENE (PP)

SE ASIA PP PRICES MAY COME UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 AS SUPPLY LENGTHENSBy Leanne Tan

Southeast Asiarsquos polypropylene (PP) market may come under pressure in the second half of the year on account of lengthening regional supply and weak downstream demand

Spot prices have been on the rise for most of May buoyed by bullish sentiment in the Chinese market and firm upstream feedstock costs

Margins for PP makers have been lower on average compared with levels in the previous year

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refinery amp Petrochemicals is scheduled to start up its 400000 tonneyear PP production unit in the third quarter The project was initially scheduled to start up in the first quarter of 2018

While domestic demand will continue to outstrip local production the countryrsquos reliance on imports may be diminished when the new plant starts up

Converters in the country have been opting to keep inventories lean in the short term amid expectations that prices may eventually weaken when more domestic supply becomes available

ldquoBuyers donrsquot want to buy too much import cargoes now not just because prices are high but also because there will be more locally-produced materials very soonrdquo a Vietnamese trader said

In Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan is expected to start commercial production at its expanded PP facility in Pasir Gudang in June or July The plantrsquos capacity will be raised by 200000 tonnesyear from 400000 tonnesyear

Import availabilities from South Korea are expected to lengthen in the medium-to-long term with S-Oil expected to complete an olefin downstream complex (ODC) at its Onsan refinery in Ulsan which will include a

405000 tonneyear PP capacity

On the demand front weakness is likely to persist in the second half with converters and end-users likely to continue buying spot cargoes on a hand-to-mouth basis

Indonesiarsquos demand in particular has been below expectations since the start of 2018 and this is likely to continue in the second half of the year according to market players

Back to Quick Navigation | 39Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Some players said import demand for dutiable cargoes may increase in the second half of the year as this is typically when the government issues duty exemption facilities

The duty exemption facilities are issued on a yearly basis which enable converters to import some PP volumes without extra cost

In Malaysia the removal of the 6 goods and services tax (GST) so far has had no immediate impact on the PP market although there are some expectations the move could potentially boost demand in the consumer market further down the road

In Vietnam demand for PP flat yarn has entered a seasonal lull from May to early July and will not pick up until August when the summer harvest begins

PP is widely used in the manufacture of woven sacks (for rice sacks) flexible packaging carpets household appliances and automotive parts

Spot PP prices in southeast Asia have been an uptrend for most of the first half

The PP market begun the year on a bullish note with spot prices surging by almost 10 over the course of two months all-origins PP flat yarn prices peaked at $1295tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia on 2 March

Healthy demand in China helped to provide support to spot prices in southeast Asia in the first quarter with a tight global spot supply leading to further price escalations

Some suppliers pulled back from the southeast Asian spot market to capitalise on better netbacks in other countries including Japan and Pakistan leading to further curtailed spot availability in southeast Asia

The market rally started to lose steam in early March amid subdued demand and a build-up of domestic inventories in China after the Lunar New Year holidays

The bearish sentiment soon spilled over into southeast Asia with Chinese suppliers pushing some volumes into southeast Asia amid an open arbitrage window

Vietnam remains the market of choice for Chinese exporters and PP import prices in the country plummeted as the result of the lengthened spot availability

However the bearish run was short-lived and prices soon bottomed out in early April

Bullish momentum in the upstream crude and naphtha markets propelled spot prices of polymers higher

Despite lacklustre downstream demand price hikes in April and May were commonplace as producers sought higher asking prices in view of narrower margins

TIGHT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT CHINA PP MARKET DESPITE WEAK DEMANDBy Dora Xue

Tight supply would buoy up Chinarsquos polypropylene (PP) prices in the near term despite weak downstream demand

The market is expecting heavy production losses following recent unexpected outages at five domestic facilities from May and scheduled turnarounds at other plants

In the week ended on 1 June domestic prices for PP flat yarn in east China were assessed at Chinese yuan (CNY) 9075tonne after a steady increase from early April according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos import prices for the same material stood at $1245tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China largely tracking movement in the domestic market over the past two months according to ICIS data

The strong PP prices have also started to deter buyers from purchasing more spot cargoes

ldquoPP prices are too high We donrsquot want to store too much in our warehouserdquo a buyer said

Downstream demand typically goes on a lull in June and July but any downward pressure on prices will be negated by a further tightening of supply as major plants will be taken off line for maintenance

ldquoWhen the maintenance season finishes in late June [PP] prices may start to go downrdquo a trader said

Demand is considered weakest at Qingdao in the eastern Shandong province due to government-mandated production cuts and logistics restrictions ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (SCO Summit) on 9-10 June

As of 1 June the combined polyolefin inventories of Chinese petrochemical majors Sinopec and PetroChina have declined back to normal levels of 700000 tonnes from a high of 1m tonnes in early March market sources said

Import supply to China may not improve in the short term as suppliers still deem other

Back to Quick Navigation | 40Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

Back to Quick Navigation | 43Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 29: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

FIBRE INTERMEDIATESMONOETHYLENE GLYCOL (MEG)

ASIA MEG TO SEE DEMAND TAPERING LOWER SUPPLY IN EARLY H2By Eric Su

The Asian monoethylene glycol (MEG) market could see demand slowing down from the end of June while supply will be reduced from a number of plant turnarounds

Inventories are expected to decline in June after offtake rates at Chinese main ports rose sharply in the last two weeks of May because of an uptick in demand from downstream polyester buyers

Demand for MEG is also expected to remain strong in the first half of June boosted by high polyester production rates of above 85 and modestly low inventory levels

A slowdown in demand may take place in the second half of June as the traditional manufacturing peak period nears its end in July

Meanwhile supply conditions could tighten because of the plant turnarounds in northeast Asia

However supply from the Middle East will likely resume to normal levels given that there were no further delay in shipments in May

MEG prices in Asia have registered year-on-year growth rates in the months to June this year

MEG prices have mostly hovered above $900tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China Main Port (CMP) while prices were mostly below $900tonne CFR CMP in 2017

Prices have been volatile in 2018 with major price swings seen on a near monthly basis since February

MEG prices in first quarter of 2018 continued the uptrend seen in the fourth quarter of 2017 rising to $1030tonne CFR CMP in early March from $922tonne CFR

CMP in late December as the higher-than-expected growth in downstream polyester fuelled bullish market sentiment

Polyester growth in 2017 was estimated at above 10 beating an originally bearish expectation of 2-3

A price downtrend was observed in March with the MEG weekly average price losing nearly 10 of its value to $929tonne CFR CMP by end-March

The price decline coincided with a sharp influx of imported cargoes which was likely a result of over-procurement in January

Back to Quick Navigation | 26Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

and February when prices were trending upwards

March 2018 import volumes rose to nearly 1m tonnes a record three-year high according to official China customs data

MEG prices rebounded in April rising by around 9 from end-March to $1014tonne CFR CMP by end-April ahead of the traditional peak period for the downstream polyester sector The average polyester production rate rose to above 85 during the period

MEG also achieved its to-date weekly peak of $1042tonne CFR CMP in the week ending 20 April

Supply tightness was also observed in the Chinese domestic market because of shipment delays from the Middle East and logistical issues at China main ports over the same period

The lack of availability of prompt cargoes also led to an atypical price spread between April and May delivery parcels

Normally the spread between arrived-at-port and far-term arrival cargoes is at $0-10tonne CFR CMP but this widened to $20-30tonne CFR CMP This drove concerns of sharp price adjustments in May once April deliveries were fulfilled

These concerns came true as MEG prices

began to slide in May MEG weekly prices stood at $928tonne CFR CMP in the last week of May falling from $1003tonne CFR CMP in early May

High inventory levels have also weighed on MEG prices Inventory levels were above 900000 tonnes from early May onward rising to 938000 tonnes by in late March Most market participants deemed inventory levels above 900000 tonnes to be high

The increase in inventory levels in May were largely attributed to the arrival of Middle East shipments which were previously due for arrival in April

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian MEG markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 27Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSETHYLENE

NE ASIA ETHYLENE H2 OUTLOOK HINGES ON NEW SUPPLY SM PLANTBy Yeow Pei Lin

Northeast (NE) Asiarsquos ethylene (C2) second-half 2018 outlook is uncertain as several crackers are scheduled for maintenance but such production losses could be offset by the start up of a new plant and cargoes from outside the region

More than 20 crackers in Asia are slated to undergo maintenance in 2018 with the estimated capacity losses totalling more than 185m tonnes Most of the turnarounds in the first half of the year were concentrated in Japan ndash a key exporter to China

However several more companies are to carry out turnarounds in June and the rest of the year

The impact on the regional balance will depend on the start-up progress of a new facility in South Korea and on whether the strong exports from southeast Asia and Europe in the first half of 2018 will continue

Shipments from Yeosu South Korea will start to slow down in August ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at complexes in that region

Exports will recover by December when Lotte Chemical brings on-stream an added capacity of 200000 tonnesyear at its Yeosu cracker

The facility will undergo an expansion during a turnaround from late September to October

Shipments from Ulsan another petrochemical cluster in South Korea will grow in the second half of 2018

Newcomer S-Oil is expected to begin commercial operations at its residue upgrading complex (RUC) in Onsan in the second half of June

The companyrsquos entire ethylene output of up

to around 200000 tonnesyear is intended for the merchant market as it does not have any downstream plants

Exports from southeast Asian producers will continue to be driven by the higher value from ethylene sales in the ethylene versus polyethylene (PE) trade-off

There will however be supply constraints

Four crackers in the region will undergo

maintenance and the affected producers include ExxonMobil and PTT Global Chemicals (PTTGC) that were regular exporters in the first half of 2018

Exports from Europe will likely be influenced by the performance of the PE sector

The outlook for the PE market in Europe is uncertain given the growing prospect of competitively-priced exports from the new US plants

Back to Quick Navigation | 28Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Ethylene costs in the US have been at low levels since early 2018 as production growth outpaces that for consumption

Since late 2017 about 3m tonnesyear of new ethylene capacity and about 35m tonnesyear of new PE capacity have started up in the US

The new crackers have been running well but several of the new PE plants struggled to reach full operating rates

Exports from Saudi Arabia are expected to be constrained by increased domestic consumption

Petro Rabigh announced in April that the last few plants in its Phase 2 project including a 75000 tonneyear ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) unit have started up

The companyrsquos ethylene exports could fall further in the second half of 2018 following the completion of its PE plant maintenance shutdowns earlier in the year

Chinarsquos import demand is poised for further growth when a new 260000 tonneyear styrene monomer (SM) plant starts up in the third quarter as planned

Anhui Haoyuan Chemical will be operating the unit in Fuyang Anhui on a standalone basis as its plans to build a methanol-to-olefin (MTO) plant have been put on hold amid high methanol prices

The plant will require around 78000 tonnes of ethylene annually to operate at maximum capacity

Based on the above factors it was not immediately clear if the ethylene prices in the second half will follow the volatile trend they displayed in the first five months of 2018

NE Asia spot ethylene prices were volatile from January to May as the impact of a heavy regional cracker turnaround schedule and strong Chinese demand was at times outweighed by strong exports from southeast Asia the Middle East and Europe

The market started the year at above a two and a half year high of $1415tonne CFR (cost amp freight) NE Asia in early January

Subsequent transacted prices fluctuated within a low $1200stonne to mid $1300stonne CFR NE Asia band in the five months ended 31 May

Prices in the first quarter were initially weighed down by ample supply from producers in the Middle East and Asia due to a series of PE plant shutdowns - both planned and unplanned

That was despite strong pre-Lunar New Year holiday restocking activities in China

Demand was bolstered by the start up of a 500000 tonneyear non-integrated SM plant and generally healthy downstream margins for producers outside the PE sector

End-users were also keen to build up their inventories because of the slow progress in their 2018 term contract discussions ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at facilities of key exporters in the region

In addition a major ethylene oxide (EO) maker was seeking more import cargoes following a disruption in supply from its upstream MTO unit The plant was shut twice between late November and the first half of February because of high feedstock methanol costs

The market recovered in early March in line with the start of the annual cracker turnaround season in northeast Asia where

scheduled capacity losses in 2018 will be overall higher than the previous year

That explained why the countryrsquos exports from January to April slumped by 14 year-on-year to 201274 tonnes

In late April northeast Asiarsquos spot prices fell again after a surprisingly large quantity of deep-sea spot cargoes were sold into Asia for delivery between the middle of May and the first half of June

There were at least 55000-60000 tonnes of cargoes from Europe in addition to 11000 tonnes of US supply for that delivery period Europe was in a long position because of derivative maintenance shutdowns and production problems

Continued strong exports from southeast Asia owing to downstream production issues and the weak performance of the linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) market contributed to the downbeat sentiment

The ample supply outweighed Chinarsquos robust import demand

Buying interest in China was strong for April and May arrival cargoes on the back

Back to Quick Navigation | 29Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

of healthy downstream margins for certain downstream markets such as SM EO and monoethylene glycol (MEG)

Ethylene buyers in China were also keen to book deep-sea cargoes to offset the expected regional production losses from cracker turnarounds

Prices rebounded quickly in mid-May

aided by a bullish SM market and reduced domestic supply

Some MTO operators lowered production in May as high feedstock methanol costs led to squeezed margins while a key producer in east China lowered its cracker run rates unexpectedly

Sharp increases in feedstock naphtha costs

which tracked gains on crude oil futures also helped set a floor to the earlier price declines

By early June spot ethylene prices had touched a 20-week high raising questions on whether the market will see similar price volatility in the second half of 2018

Producers will turn hawkish if the outlook for crude and naphtha markets remains upbeat

Back to Quick Navigation | 30Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSPROPYLENE

TIGHT NE ASIA PROPYLENE SUPPLY TO LIMIT H2 PRICE FLUCTUATIONSBy Joson Ng

Tight propylene (C3) supply in northeast Asia amid a heavy turnaround schedule in 2018 will continue supporting regional prices of the material into the second half

Sellers are likely to continue passing on firmer costs to buyers which are wary of October when heavy propylene production losses are expected

Buyersrsquo resistance in the key China market would keep any further increase in propylene prices in check with some downstream producers considering cutting output due to high feedstock costs

At the start of June propylene prices have weakened ending the strong general uptrend since end-March amid weakness in Chinarsquos domestic market as demand softened due to turnarounds at downstream polypropylene (PP) plants

However the downward pressure on regional prices may be temporary as overall supply in Asia is expected to be tight

In early June spot propylene prices in northeast Asia were about 9 higher from the start of 2018 according to ICIS data

The year started on a bullish note fuelled by a heavier cracker turnaround schedule compared with 2017 and higher premium levels concluded for contract cargoes

The uptrend was sustained into February due to restocking activities in various import markets in northeast Asia before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February

Before the holidays some South Korean producers were convinced the market will experience supply shortage as both GS Caltexrsquos fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity and Yeochun NCCrsquos (YNCC) cracker ndash which can produce 280000 tonnesyear of propylene ndash were due for maintenance in February through to April

But propylene prices surprisingly weakened from 9 February to end-March without demand support from Chinarsquos weak PP market which struggled through sluggish sales and high inventory after the countryrsquos week-long Lunar New Year holiday

A renewed wave of scheduled turnarounds at regional plants tightened supply and drove up propylene prices in April and May

In Taiwan Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) took its residue fluid catalytic

Back to Quick Navigation | 31Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

cracking (RFCC) unit with a 350000 tonneyear propylene capacity off stream from 1 March to mid-April while CPC Corp shut its 100000 tonneyear FCC unit on 10 April and restarted in early June

In South Korea GS Caltex also had a turnaround at its FCC unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity from 19 February to 5 April

SK Advanced shut its propane dehydrogenated (PDH) unit with 600000 tonneyear propylene capacity on 21 April to early May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian propylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 32Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

To talk to someone about price forecast reports call the numbers below or email us at salesukiciscomAsia-Pacific Europe Africa and Middle East The AmericasTel +65 6789 8828 Tel +44 20 8652 3335 Tel +1 713 525 2600 or Toll free +1 888 525 3255 (US and Canada only)

ICIS price forecast reportsSupply demand and price trends at a glance

ICIS price forecast reports provide a clear view of prices and supply and demand trends for the next 12 months Packed with vital information the report includes everything you need to assess where the market is heading and the impact or opportunity that presents for your business

To find out more or take a trial visit wwwiciscompriceforecast

Price Forecast Window

ICIS price forecasts are now available on the Dashboard channel using the Price Forecast Window which will enable users to

n Chart the price forecast against the last (rolling) twelve months of related price history

n Plot the last 12 months to view forecast progression and ICIS forecast accuracy

n Convert data into different currencies and units and download this data into Excel in order to easily enter into your own calculations

How price forecast reports can help youn Understand the marketUse ICIS price forecast reports to understand where the market is heading and identify the risks and the opportunities for your business What are the major demand developments for your product n Safeguard commercial decisionsUse market information to make better-informed business decisions relating to supply and demand Learn about changes in market capacities What factors will affect supply for you n Budgeting and planningWhether you are planning how much you will be spending in the short-to medium or even long term use the price forecast reports to help assess future prices for your product What will the price of your product be in six monthsrsquo time

Price forecast reports currently

available

Available as price forecast windows only

Polypropylene

Polyethylene

Benzene

StyrenePolystyrene

Methanol

Ethylene

Propylene

Styrene

Asia Europe US Global

3

3

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3

3

3

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3

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3

OLEFINSBUTADIENE

ASIA BD TO FLUCTUATE IN H2 AS SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE SHIFTSBy Helen Yan

Asiarsquos butadiene (BD) spot prices for July shipments are likely to face downward pressure but any price downtrend is likely to reverse when cracker turnarounds start to kick in from September onwards

BD prices are expected to be weighed down before seeing support again in the third quarter as the supply and demand balance shifts during this period

The fourth quarter will likely see support for BD prices although the increases may be tempered by resistance from the downstream synthetic rubber (SR) makers to any significant price hikes

The busy cracker turnaround season in September-November will likely see supply tightening at the same time that demand is expected to pick up during this period

Several crackers and BD units including South Korearsquos Lotte Chemical LG Chem and Chinarsquos Shanghai Secco and Maoming Petrochemical are scheduled to shut during

the September to November time frame

In the near term BD spot prices are likely to continue to trend lower as demand wanes while supply at the same time is expected to lengthen due to an influx of deep-sea cargoes and regional cracker restarts

More than 15000 tonnes of deep-sea cargoes from EU are expected to arrive in Asia in June and July at the same time that crackers in Asia including Indiarsquos Haldia Petrochemical and Indonesiarsquos Chandra Asri resume their production following their maintenance shutdowns

On 8 June spot prices fell to $1725tonne CFR (cost amp freight) northeast (NE) Asia the second consecutive week of decline after spiralling upwards in the two months since early April

BD spot prices had increased by more than 40 since early April peaking at $1800tonne CFR NE Asia on 25 May

Strong demand from derivative acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) makers which were running their plants at optimal rates had bolstered the BD price upsurge during this period

However derivative styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) and polybutadiene rubber (PBR) producers the key consumers of BD cut their production output given the continued erosion in margins

Several major SBR and PBR producers said their margins had fallen into negative territory and retreated from the BD spot market in June

Chinese spot appetite in particular tapered off as domestic BD prices were lower compared with the US dollar-denominated import prices

In China Hangzhou Zhechen Jilin Petrochemical Zhejiang Transfar and Shen Hua Chemical were some of the SBR and PBR plants that are shut for maintenance in June and July

Several SBR and PBR plants in Taiwan and South Korea were also running at lower rates following the 40 BD price spike in the two months from early April to end-May

In South Korea major SR producer Korea Kumho Petrochemical PC was running its SBR and PBR plants at reduced rates

Back to Quick Navigation | 33Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian butadiene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 34Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Similarly Taiwanrsquos TSRC also cut the production output of its SBR and PBR plants

The outlook for the fourth quarter is expected to see a different turn of events with SBR and PBR plants resuming their production and ramping up their operating rates while supply during the last quarter is expected to tighten from the heavy cracker turnaround season

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYETHYLENE (PE)

SOUTHEAST ASIA PE MARKET FACES LONGER H2 SUPPLY WEAK DEMANDBy Felita Widjaja

Southeast Asiarsquos polyethylene (PE) market may be facing longer supply in the second half hinging on how the US-China trade spat plays out amid the regionrsquos weakening demand for imports

Global PE trade flows will be affected should China the biggest importer of spot PE cargoes in the world decide to impose retaliatory 25 tariff on US cargoes

Southeast Asia as an alternative buying region might be hard pressed to absorb additional supply from the US where massive PE capacities recently started up which were meant to cater to huge Chinese demand

Around 5m tonnes of additional US PE capacities are expected from several major projects including those in the pipeline to start up within the second half of 2018

China primarily imports PE cargoes from Asia and the Middle East while the US is its sixth leading PE supplier in 2017

ldquoEventually more substantial and regular volume of US [PE] cargoes are expected to be traded in Asia in the second half of the year as we have yet to see them in the first half of this yearrdquo said a regional trader

Any changes in trade flows would pose challenges to US suppliers in the short term as they would need to revamp their logistics and distribution channels to redirect cargoes to other markets

Suppliers from the Middle East meanwhile might take the opportunity to supply more cargoes to China and would mean fewer volumes available to the southeast Asian market

The Middle East is southeast Asiarsquos major PE supplier

Demand for PE imports in southeast Asia has been weak amid lower prices in

Back to Quick Navigation | 35Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

the domestic markets as in the case of Thailand

ldquoThai traders are not keen to import as local prices are more competitive so they do not have the margin to sell the imported cargoes in local market Only some converters who need specific cargoes continue to importrdquo said a local Thai trader

Malaysia and Indonesia with predominantly Muslim populations have seen market activity slow down since mid-May when the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan started Ramadan ends with the Eid ul-Fitr holiday on 15 June

The Indonesian government has declared a longer Eid-ul Fitr holiday this year from 11-20 June

Markets in Singapore and the Philippines will be closed for the mid-June holiday as well

With supply expected to become long some market players expect regional PE prices in July and August to ease from

June with restocking activities expected to kick in towards the end of the third quarter

In the first half of 2018 southeast Asiarsquos average prices for commodity PE were largely stable to firm owing to suppliersrsquo relatively comfortable-to-tight supply for most of the period

At the start of June high density polyethylene (HDPE) film grade prices averaged $1395tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia while linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) film were at $1210tonne CFR SE Asia and $1265tonne CFR SE Asia respectively according to ICIS data

Prices had spiked in the first quarter as suppliers were holding comfortable-to-tight inventory as several regional producers have scheduled turnarounds at their plants in March Production issues and shutdowns in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia also limited availability of imports to southeast Asia during this period

Supply for HDPE film was particularly tight as some producers from the Middle East as well as Asia switched their focus into making HDPE pipe grade amid robust demand and better netbacks

The price uptrend across most PE grades could not be sustained in the second quarter although prices remained relatively stable-to-firm

The depreciation of local currencies in southeast Asia against the US dollar in most of the second quarter was also curbing overall demand for imports A weaker currency makes US dollar-denominated imports expensive

ldquoIndonesian buyers have not been buying much cargoes as the market slowed down during Ramadan and also because of weak rupiah which led the central bank to increase interest rate to limit the depreciationrdquo said a regional producer

CHINA PE IMPORTS TO STAY STRONG AMID DOMESTIC PLANT TURNAROUNDS By Angie Li

Chinarsquos polyethylene (PE) imports are expected to remain strong for the rest of the year after posting record volumes in January to April 2018 amid scheduled turnarounds at domestic facilities

Buyers in China have been accumulating imported PE cargoes as these were priced lower compared futures prices since the start of the year

More cargoes will be available to China as new capacities in the US are expected to boost production

For the month of May the countryrsquos PE imports are projected to reach 12m tonnes higher than the monthly average in the first four months of 2018

In January to April 2018 its PE imports volumes totaled 447m tonnes up by 12 from the previous corresponding period according to industry sources

The import volumes were making up for the production losses in the domestic market due to scheduled turnarounds

On 1 June low density PE (LDPE) imports were assessed at $1155-1180tonne linear low density PE (LLDPE) stood at $1150-1170tonne while high density PE (HDPE) film products were at $1340-1400tonne according to ICIS data

The prices have increased 15-62 from end-March but the gains came in lower than market playersrsquo expectations considering the heavy production loss due to turnarounds from April

Back to Quick Navigation | 36Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

An estimated 500000 tonnes are expected to be shaved in the second quarter due to scheduled maintenance at domestic facilities according ICIS data

ldquoWe thought the hefty plant turnarounds in the second quarter should lead to a surge in PE prices but the LDPE and LLDPE prices were less than satisfactory although HDPE prices [were] highrdquo said an east China-based trader referring to both the import and domestic PE prices

Strong imports amid hedging activities bloated the total supply in China in January to April to 998m tonnes up by 8 from the previous corresponding period with supply of LDPE and LLDPE up by 14 and 8 respectively market sources said

Imports of HDPE inched up by 2 over the same period given the gradersquos comparatively higher prices compared with LLDPE and LDPE

Increased availability due to recent capacity expansions and start-ups in Asia the Middle East also fuels Chinarsquos appetite for import cargoes

In the first quarter of 2018 additional cargoes from Saudi Arabia were mostly from Sadara Chemical which started up its 750000 tonneyear swing plant and 350000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Al Jubail during late 2016 and early 2017 respectively

Cargoes of Iran origin augmented the total volume from the UAE as market players try to go around the financial sanctions on Tehran Kordestan Petrochemicalrsquos 300000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Iran came on stream in March 2017

UAErsquos Borouge has also ramped up pipe and HDPE film exports to China during the period according to a supplier in the Middle East

Meanwhile PE imports from Singapore surged 38 year on year while those from India more than doubled to 127000 tonnes according to China Customs data

The ban on waste plastics implemented in China in the year also bolstered imports of virgin PE Some waste plastics processed overseas and then re-entered the market as virgin products but these volumes were limited

Last year China has imported 194m tonnes of PE waste plastics while

volumes in 2018 will be negligible with the implemention of the ban

Chinarsquos PE production this year is expected to increase by around 7 to about 17m tonnes in 2018 with imports projected to grow by 102 to around 13m tonnes according to a source from state-owned petrochemical giant PetroChina

Domestic demand for PE on the other hand is forecast to grow by 8 this year mainly from the packaging and pipe markets

Chinarsquos ongoing campaign to switch to using gas for power generation instead of coal is expected to continue boosting demand for PE gas pipes this year

The packaging industry will also drive up PE consumption underpinned by growth in electronic commerce Chinarsquos express delivery volumes reached 137bn packages during January-April 2018 based on data from the recent China Express Industry Development Conference in May

Back to Quick Navigation | 37Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 38Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

By Jonathan Lopez

ICIS NewsThe leading news service for real-time ground breaking news and analysis on the global petrochemicals markets

The ICIS News services give you unrivalled access to the most in-depth stories impacting the petrochemicals markets influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions

Our team of global editors are reporting around the clock to bring you the latest news and analysis so that you get the full picture of market and pricing developments first providing you with invaluable foresight to take advantage of every opportunity and to stay ahead of your competitors

With ICIS News you will be the first to read

Breaking news on the chemical markets that will impact your business

News on market moves deals and announcements that will affect your organisation

Force majeures closures and developments that influence your commodity prices

Expert analysis on industry trends and hot topics ndash know whatrsquos happening and why

Searchable archive with over 14 million articles from the past 10 years

Chemical Business News Base (CBNB) is a premium resource available on ICIS News It provides you with an extensive external source of upstream and downstream petrochemical news in summarised snapshots so you can quickly and easily get the latest updates on whatrsquos important to you

CBNB offers readers

Fast and consistent coverage on news facts figures from the upstream and downstream petrochemicals industry

Access to over 700 news sources including technical and trade journals company literature market research reports stockbroker reports books and directories

User-friendly search functionality to find articles most relevant to you from around the globe

Quick and easy-to-read summarised snapshots of articles with option to access full articles from the original source

ICIS Chemical Business digital magazine (ICB) Our global team of experts digests and summarises the key issues and their potential impact on the chemical markets offering a comprehensive overview of the key developments that matter most-along with informed opinion and in-depth analysis

ICB features include

In-depth insight into chemical price changes and their impact on the markets

Understand the detail behind the headline news stories

Find out about supply amp demand trends and the factors impacting them

Get the complete picture of the chemical markets ndash all in one e-magazine

Easy access via e-magazine and premium magazine website

Find out more wwwiciscomnews

ICIS News offers access to additional sources including the ICIS Chemical Business Magazine and Chemical Business News Base (CBNB)

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYPROPYLENE (PP)

SE ASIA PP PRICES MAY COME UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 AS SUPPLY LENGTHENSBy Leanne Tan

Southeast Asiarsquos polypropylene (PP) market may come under pressure in the second half of the year on account of lengthening regional supply and weak downstream demand

Spot prices have been on the rise for most of May buoyed by bullish sentiment in the Chinese market and firm upstream feedstock costs

Margins for PP makers have been lower on average compared with levels in the previous year

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refinery amp Petrochemicals is scheduled to start up its 400000 tonneyear PP production unit in the third quarter The project was initially scheduled to start up in the first quarter of 2018

While domestic demand will continue to outstrip local production the countryrsquos reliance on imports may be diminished when the new plant starts up

Converters in the country have been opting to keep inventories lean in the short term amid expectations that prices may eventually weaken when more domestic supply becomes available

ldquoBuyers donrsquot want to buy too much import cargoes now not just because prices are high but also because there will be more locally-produced materials very soonrdquo a Vietnamese trader said

In Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan is expected to start commercial production at its expanded PP facility in Pasir Gudang in June or July The plantrsquos capacity will be raised by 200000 tonnesyear from 400000 tonnesyear

Import availabilities from South Korea are expected to lengthen in the medium-to-long term with S-Oil expected to complete an olefin downstream complex (ODC) at its Onsan refinery in Ulsan which will include a

405000 tonneyear PP capacity

On the demand front weakness is likely to persist in the second half with converters and end-users likely to continue buying spot cargoes on a hand-to-mouth basis

Indonesiarsquos demand in particular has been below expectations since the start of 2018 and this is likely to continue in the second half of the year according to market players

Back to Quick Navigation | 39Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Some players said import demand for dutiable cargoes may increase in the second half of the year as this is typically when the government issues duty exemption facilities

The duty exemption facilities are issued on a yearly basis which enable converters to import some PP volumes without extra cost

In Malaysia the removal of the 6 goods and services tax (GST) so far has had no immediate impact on the PP market although there are some expectations the move could potentially boost demand in the consumer market further down the road

In Vietnam demand for PP flat yarn has entered a seasonal lull from May to early July and will not pick up until August when the summer harvest begins

PP is widely used in the manufacture of woven sacks (for rice sacks) flexible packaging carpets household appliances and automotive parts

Spot PP prices in southeast Asia have been an uptrend for most of the first half

The PP market begun the year on a bullish note with spot prices surging by almost 10 over the course of two months all-origins PP flat yarn prices peaked at $1295tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia on 2 March

Healthy demand in China helped to provide support to spot prices in southeast Asia in the first quarter with a tight global spot supply leading to further price escalations

Some suppliers pulled back from the southeast Asian spot market to capitalise on better netbacks in other countries including Japan and Pakistan leading to further curtailed spot availability in southeast Asia

The market rally started to lose steam in early March amid subdued demand and a build-up of domestic inventories in China after the Lunar New Year holidays

The bearish sentiment soon spilled over into southeast Asia with Chinese suppliers pushing some volumes into southeast Asia amid an open arbitrage window

Vietnam remains the market of choice for Chinese exporters and PP import prices in the country plummeted as the result of the lengthened spot availability

However the bearish run was short-lived and prices soon bottomed out in early April

Bullish momentum in the upstream crude and naphtha markets propelled spot prices of polymers higher

Despite lacklustre downstream demand price hikes in April and May were commonplace as producers sought higher asking prices in view of narrower margins

TIGHT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT CHINA PP MARKET DESPITE WEAK DEMANDBy Dora Xue

Tight supply would buoy up Chinarsquos polypropylene (PP) prices in the near term despite weak downstream demand

The market is expecting heavy production losses following recent unexpected outages at five domestic facilities from May and scheduled turnarounds at other plants

In the week ended on 1 June domestic prices for PP flat yarn in east China were assessed at Chinese yuan (CNY) 9075tonne after a steady increase from early April according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos import prices for the same material stood at $1245tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China largely tracking movement in the domestic market over the past two months according to ICIS data

The strong PP prices have also started to deter buyers from purchasing more spot cargoes

ldquoPP prices are too high We donrsquot want to store too much in our warehouserdquo a buyer said

Downstream demand typically goes on a lull in June and July but any downward pressure on prices will be negated by a further tightening of supply as major plants will be taken off line for maintenance

ldquoWhen the maintenance season finishes in late June [PP] prices may start to go downrdquo a trader said

Demand is considered weakest at Qingdao in the eastern Shandong province due to government-mandated production cuts and logistics restrictions ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (SCO Summit) on 9-10 June

As of 1 June the combined polyolefin inventories of Chinese petrochemical majors Sinopec and PetroChina have declined back to normal levels of 700000 tonnes from a high of 1m tonnes in early March market sources said

Import supply to China may not improve in the short term as suppliers still deem other

Back to Quick Navigation | 40Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

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Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

Back to Quick Navigation | 43Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 30: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

and February when prices were trending upwards

March 2018 import volumes rose to nearly 1m tonnes a record three-year high according to official China customs data

MEG prices rebounded in April rising by around 9 from end-March to $1014tonne CFR CMP by end-April ahead of the traditional peak period for the downstream polyester sector The average polyester production rate rose to above 85 during the period

MEG also achieved its to-date weekly peak of $1042tonne CFR CMP in the week ending 20 April

Supply tightness was also observed in the Chinese domestic market because of shipment delays from the Middle East and logistical issues at China main ports over the same period

The lack of availability of prompt cargoes also led to an atypical price spread between April and May delivery parcels

Normally the spread between arrived-at-port and far-term arrival cargoes is at $0-10tonne CFR CMP but this widened to $20-30tonne CFR CMP This drove concerns of sharp price adjustments in May once April deliveries were fulfilled

These concerns came true as MEG prices

began to slide in May MEG weekly prices stood at $928tonne CFR CMP in the last week of May falling from $1003tonne CFR CMP in early May

High inventory levels have also weighed on MEG prices Inventory levels were above 900000 tonnes from early May onward rising to 938000 tonnes by in late March Most market participants deemed inventory levels above 900000 tonnes to be high

The increase in inventory levels in May were largely attributed to the arrival of Middle East shipments which were previously due for arrival in April

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian MEG markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 27Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSETHYLENE

NE ASIA ETHYLENE H2 OUTLOOK HINGES ON NEW SUPPLY SM PLANTBy Yeow Pei Lin

Northeast (NE) Asiarsquos ethylene (C2) second-half 2018 outlook is uncertain as several crackers are scheduled for maintenance but such production losses could be offset by the start up of a new plant and cargoes from outside the region

More than 20 crackers in Asia are slated to undergo maintenance in 2018 with the estimated capacity losses totalling more than 185m tonnes Most of the turnarounds in the first half of the year were concentrated in Japan ndash a key exporter to China

However several more companies are to carry out turnarounds in June and the rest of the year

The impact on the regional balance will depend on the start-up progress of a new facility in South Korea and on whether the strong exports from southeast Asia and Europe in the first half of 2018 will continue

Shipments from Yeosu South Korea will start to slow down in August ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at complexes in that region

Exports will recover by December when Lotte Chemical brings on-stream an added capacity of 200000 tonnesyear at its Yeosu cracker

The facility will undergo an expansion during a turnaround from late September to October

Shipments from Ulsan another petrochemical cluster in South Korea will grow in the second half of 2018

Newcomer S-Oil is expected to begin commercial operations at its residue upgrading complex (RUC) in Onsan in the second half of June

The companyrsquos entire ethylene output of up

to around 200000 tonnesyear is intended for the merchant market as it does not have any downstream plants

Exports from southeast Asian producers will continue to be driven by the higher value from ethylene sales in the ethylene versus polyethylene (PE) trade-off

There will however be supply constraints

Four crackers in the region will undergo

maintenance and the affected producers include ExxonMobil and PTT Global Chemicals (PTTGC) that were regular exporters in the first half of 2018

Exports from Europe will likely be influenced by the performance of the PE sector

The outlook for the PE market in Europe is uncertain given the growing prospect of competitively-priced exports from the new US plants

Back to Quick Navigation | 28Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Ethylene costs in the US have been at low levels since early 2018 as production growth outpaces that for consumption

Since late 2017 about 3m tonnesyear of new ethylene capacity and about 35m tonnesyear of new PE capacity have started up in the US

The new crackers have been running well but several of the new PE plants struggled to reach full operating rates

Exports from Saudi Arabia are expected to be constrained by increased domestic consumption

Petro Rabigh announced in April that the last few plants in its Phase 2 project including a 75000 tonneyear ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) unit have started up

The companyrsquos ethylene exports could fall further in the second half of 2018 following the completion of its PE plant maintenance shutdowns earlier in the year

Chinarsquos import demand is poised for further growth when a new 260000 tonneyear styrene monomer (SM) plant starts up in the third quarter as planned

Anhui Haoyuan Chemical will be operating the unit in Fuyang Anhui on a standalone basis as its plans to build a methanol-to-olefin (MTO) plant have been put on hold amid high methanol prices

The plant will require around 78000 tonnes of ethylene annually to operate at maximum capacity

Based on the above factors it was not immediately clear if the ethylene prices in the second half will follow the volatile trend they displayed in the first five months of 2018

NE Asia spot ethylene prices were volatile from January to May as the impact of a heavy regional cracker turnaround schedule and strong Chinese demand was at times outweighed by strong exports from southeast Asia the Middle East and Europe

The market started the year at above a two and a half year high of $1415tonne CFR (cost amp freight) NE Asia in early January

Subsequent transacted prices fluctuated within a low $1200stonne to mid $1300stonne CFR NE Asia band in the five months ended 31 May

Prices in the first quarter were initially weighed down by ample supply from producers in the Middle East and Asia due to a series of PE plant shutdowns - both planned and unplanned

That was despite strong pre-Lunar New Year holiday restocking activities in China

Demand was bolstered by the start up of a 500000 tonneyear non-integrated SM plant and generally healthy downstream margins for producers outside the PE sector

End-users were also keen to build up their inventories because of the slow progress in their 2018 term contract discussions ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at facilities of key exporters in the region

In addition a major ethylene oxide (EO) maker was seeking more import cargoes following a disruption in supply from its upstream MTO unit The plant was shut twice between late November and the first half of February because of high feedstock methanol costs

The market recovered in early March in line with the start of the annual cracker turnaround season in northeast Asia where

scheduled capacity losses in 2018 will be overall higher than the previous year

That explained why the countryrsquos exports from January to April slumped by 14 year-on-year to 201274 tonnes

In late April northeast Asiarsquos spot prices fell again after a surprisingly large quantity of deep-sea spot cargoes were sold into Asia for delivery between the middle of May and the first half of June

There were at least 55000-60000 tonnes of cargoes from Europe in addition to 11000 tonnes of US supply for that delivery period Europe was in a long position because of derivative maintenance shutdowns and production problems

Continued strong exports from southeast Asia owing to downstream production issues and the weak performance of the linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) market contributed to the downbeat sentiment

The ample supply outweighed Chinarsquos robust import demand

Buying interest in China was strong for April and May arrival cargoes on the back

Back to Quick Navigation | 29Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

of healthy downstream margins for certain downstream markets such as SM EO and monoethylene glycol (MEG)

Ethylene buyers in China were also keen to book deep-sea cargoes to offset the expected regional production losses from cracker turnarounds

Prices rebounded quickly in mid-May

aided by a bullish SM market and reduced domestic supply

Some MTO operators lowered production in May as high feedstock methanol costs led to squeezed margins while a key producer in east China lowered its cracker run rates unexpectedly

Sharp increases in feedstock naphtha costs

which tracked gains on crude oil futures also helped set a floor to the earlier price declines

By early June spot ethylene prices had touched a 20-week high raising questions on whether the market will see similar price volatility in the second half of 2018

Producers will turn hawkish if the outlook for crude and naphtha markets remains upbeat

Back to Quick Navigation | 30Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSPROPYLENE

TIGHT NE ASIA PROPYLENE SUPPLY TO LIMIT H2 PRICE FLUCTUATIONSBy Joson Ng

Tight propylene (C3) supply in northeast Asia amid a heavy turnaround schedule in 2018 will continue supporting regional prices of the material into the second half

Sellers are likely to continue passing on firmer costs to buyers which are wary of October when heavy propylene production losses are expected

Buyersrsquo resistance in the key China market would keep any further increase in propylene prices in check with some downstream producers considering cutting output due to high feedstock costs

At the start of June propylene prices have weakened ending the strong general uptrend since end-March amid weakness in Chinarsquos domestic market as demand softened due to turnarounds at downstream polypropylene (PP) plants

However the downward pressure on regional prices may be temporary as overall supply in Asia is expected to be tight

In early June spot propylene prices in northeast Asia were about 9 higher from the start of 2018 according to ICIS data

The year started on a bullish note fuelled by a heavier cracker turnaround schedule compared with 2017 and higher premium levels concluded for contract cargoes

The uptrend was sustained into February due to restocking activities in various import markets in northeast Asia before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February

Before the holidays some South Korean producers were convinced the market will experience supply shortage as both GS Caltexrsquos fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity and Yeochun NCCrsquos (YNCC) cracker ndash which can produce 280000 tonnesyear of propylene ndash were due for maintenance in February through to April

But propylene prices surprisingly weakened from 9 February to end-March without demand support from Chinarsquos weak PP market which struggled through sluggish sales and high inventory after the countryrsquos week-long Lunar New Year holiday

A renewed wave of scheduled turnarounds at regional plants tightened supply and drove up propylene prices in April and May

In Taiwan Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) took its residue fluid catalytic

Back to Quick Navigation | 31Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

cracking (RFCC) unit with a 350000 tonneyear propylene capacity off stream from 1 March to mid-April while CPC Corp shut its 100000 tonneyear FCC unit on 10 April and restarted in early June

In South Korea GS Caltex also had a turnaround at its FCC unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity from 19 February to 5 April

SK Advanced shut its propane dehydrogenated (PDH) unit with 600000 tonneyear propylene capacity on 21 April to early May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian propylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 32Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

To talk to someone about price forecast reports call the numbers below or email us at salesukiciscomAsia-Pacific Europe Africa and Middle East The AmericasTel +65 6789 8828 Tel +44 20 8652 3335 Tel +1 713 525 2600 or Toll free +1 888 525 3255 (US and Canada only)

ICIS price forecast reportsSupply demand and price trends at a glance

ICIS price forecast reports provide a clear view of prices and supply and demand trends for the next 12 months Packed with vital information the report includes everything you need to assess where the market is heading and the impact or opportunity that presents for your business

To find out more or take a trial visit wwwiciscompriceforecast

Price Forecast Window

ICIS price forecasts are now available on the Dashboard channel using the Price Forecast Window which will enable users to

n Chart the price forecast against the last (rolling) twelve months of related price history

n Plot the last 12 months to view forecast progression and ICIS forecast accuracy

n Convert data into different currencies and units and download this data into Excel in order to easily enter into your own calculations

How price forecast reports can help youn Understand the marketUse ICIS price forecast reports to understand where the market is heading and identify the risks and the opportunities for your business What are the major demand developments for your product n Safeguard commercial decisionsUse market information to make better-informed business decisions relating to supply and demand Learn about changes in market capacities What factors will affect supply for you n Budgeting and planningWhether you are planning how much you will be spending in the short-to medium or even long term use the price forecast reports to help assess future prices for your product What will the price of your product be in six monthsrsquo time

Price forecast reports currently

available

Available as price forecast windows only

Polypropylene

Polyethylene

Benzene

StyrenePolystyrene

Methanol

Ethylene

Propylene

Styrene

Asia Europe US Global

3

3

3

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3

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OLEFINSBUTADIENE

ASIA BD TO FLUCTUATE IN H2 AS SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE SHIFTSBy Helen Yan

Asiarsquos butadiene (BD) spot prices for July shipments are likely to face downward pressure but any price downtrend is likely to reverse when cracker turnarounds start to kick in from September onwards

BD prices are expected to be weighed down before seeing support again in the third quarter as the supply and demand balance shifts during this period

The fourth quarter will likely see support for BD prices although the increases may be tempered by resistance from the downstream synthetic rubber (SR) makers to any significant price hikes

The busy cracker turnaround season in September-November will likely see supply tightening at the same time that demand is expected to pick up during this period

Several crackers and BD units including South Korearsquos Lotte Chemical LG Chem and Chinarsquos Shanghai Secco and Maoming Petrochemical are scheduled to shut during

the September to November time frame

In the near term BD spot prices are likely to continue to trend lower as demand wanes while supply at the same time is expected to lengthen due to an influx of deep-sea cargoes and regional cracker restarts

More than 15000 tonnes of deep-sea cargoes from EU are expected to arrive in Asia in June and July at the same time that crackers in Asia including Indiarsquos Haldia Petrochemical and Indonesiarsquos Chandra Asri resume their production following their maintenance shutdowns

On 8 June spot prices fell to $1725tonne CFR (cost amp freight) northeast (NE) Asia the second consecutive week of decline after spiralling upwards in the two months since early April

BD spot prices had increased by more than 40 since early April peaking at $1800tonne CFR NE Asia on 25 May

Strong demand from derivative acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) makers which were running their plants at optimal rates had bolstered the BD price upsurge during this period

However derivative styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) and polybutadiene rubber (PBR) producers the key consumers of BD cut their production output given the continued erosion in margins

Several major SBR and PBR producers said their margins had fallen into negative territory and retreated from the BD spot market in June

Chinese spot appetite in particular tapered off as domestic BD prices were lower compared with the US dollar-denominated import prices

In China Hangzhou Zhechen Jilin Petrochemical Zhejiang Transfar and Shen Hua Chemical were some of the SBR and PBR plants that are shut for maintenance in June and July

Several SBR and PBR plants in Taiwan and South Korea were also running at lower rates following the 40 BD price spike in the two months from early April to end-May

In South Korea major SR producer Korea Kumho Petrochemical PC was running its SBR and PBR plants at reduced rates

Back to Quick Navigation | 33Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian butadiene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 34Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Similarly Taiwanrsquos TSRC also cut the production output of its SBR and PBR plants

The outlook for the fourth quarter is expected to see a different turn of events with SBR and PBR plants resuming their production and ramping up their operating rates while supply during the last quarter is expected to tighten from the heavy cracker turnaround season

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYETHYLENE (PE)

SOUTHEAST ASIA PE MARKET FACES LONGER H2 SUPPLY WEAK DEMANDBy Felita Widjaja

Southeast Asiarsquos polyethylene (PE) market may be facing longer supply in the second half hinging on how the US-China trade spat plays out amid the regionrsquos weakening demand for imports

Global PE trade flows will be affected should China the biggest importer of spot PE cargoes in the world decide to impose retaliatory 25 tariff on US cargoes

Southeast Asia as an alternative buying region might be hard pressed to absorb additional supply from the US where massive PE capacities recently started up which were meant to cater to huge Chinese demand

Around 5m tonnes of additional US PE capacities are expected from several major projects including those in the pipeline to start up within the second half of 2018

China primarily imports PE cargoes from Asia and the Middle East while the US is its sixth leading PE supplier in 2017

ldquoEventually more substantial and regular volume of US [PE] cargoes are expected to be traded in Asia in the second half of the year as we have yet to see them in the first half of this yearrdquo said a regional trader

Any changes in trade flows would pose challenges to US suppliers in the short term as they would need to revamp their logistics and distribution channels to redirect cargoes to other markets

Suppliers from the Middle East meanwhile might take the opportunity to supply more cargoes to China and would mean fewer volumes available to the southeast Asian market

The Middle East is southeast Asiarsquos major PE supplier

Demand for PE imports in southeast Asia has been weak amid lower prices in

Back to Quick Navigation | 35Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

the domestic markets as in the case of Thailand

ldquoThai traders are not keen to import as local prices are more competitive so they do not have the margin to sell the imported cargoes in local market Only some converters who need specific cargoes continue to importrdquo said a local Thai trader

Malaysia and Indonesia with predominantly Muslim populations have seen market activity slow down since mid-May when the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan started Ramadan ends with the Eid ul-Fitr holiday on 15 June

The Indonesian government has declared a longer Eid-ul Fitr holiday this year from 11-20 June

Markets in Singapore and the Philippines will be closed for the mid-June holiday as well

With supply expected to become long some market players expect regional PE prices in July and August to ease from

June with restocking activities expected to kick in towards the end of the third quarter

In the first half of 2018 southeast Asiarsquos average prices for commodity PE were largely stable to firm owing to suppliersrsquo relatively comfortable-to-tight supply for most of the period

At the start of June high density polyethylene (HDPE) film grade prices averaged $1395tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia while linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) film were at $1210tonne CFR SE Asia and $1265tonne CFR SE Asia respectively according to ICIS data

Prices had spiked in the first quarter as suppliers were holding comfortable-to-tight inventory as several regional producers have scheduled turnarounds at their plants in March Production issues and shutdowns in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia also limited availability of imports to southeast Asia during this period

Supply for HDPE film was particularly tight as some producers from the Middle East as well as Asia switched their focus into making HDPE pipe grade amid robust demand and better netbacks

The price uptrend across most PE grades could not be sustained in the second quarter although prices remained relatively stable-to-firm

The depreciation of local currencies in southeast Asia against the US dollar in most of the second quarter was also curbing overall demand for imports A weaker currency makes US dollar-denominated imports expensive

ldquoIndonesian buyers have not been buying much cargoes as the market slowed down during Ramadan and also because of weak rupiah which led the central bank to increase interest rate to limit the depreciationrdquo said a regional producer

CHINA PE IMPORTS TO STAY STRONG AMID DOMESTIC PLANT TURNAROUNDS By Angie Li

Chinarsquos polyethylene (PE) imports are expected to remain strong for the rest of the year after posting record volumes in January to April 2018 amid scheduled turnarounds at domestic facilities

Buyers in China have been accumulating imported PE cargoes as these were priced lower compared futures prices since the start of the year

More cargoes will be available to China as new capacities in the US are expected to boost production

For the month of May the countryrsquos PE imports are projected to reach 12m tonnes higher than the monthly average in the first four months of 2018

In January to April 2018 its PE imports volumes totaled 447m tonnes up by 12 from the previous corresponding period according to industry sources

The import volumes were making up for the production losses in the domestic market due to scheduled turnarounds

On 1 June low density PE (LDPE) imports were assessed at $1155-1180tonne linear low density PE (LLDPE) stood at $1150-1170tonne while high density PE (HDPE) film products were at $1340-1400tonne according to ICIS data

The prices have increased 15-62 from end-March but the gains came in lower than market playersrsquo expectations considering the heavy production loss due to turnarounds from April

Back to Quick Navigation | 36Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

An estimated 500000 tonnes are expected to be shaved in the second quarter due to scheduled maintenance at domestic facilities according ICIS data

ldquoWe thought the hefty plant turnarounds in the second quarter should lead to a surge in PE prices but the LDPE and LLDPE prices were less than satisfactory although HDPE prices [were] highrdquo said an east China-based trader referring to both the import and domestic PE prices

Strong imports amid hedging activities bloated the total supply in China in January to April to 998m tonnes up by 8 from the previous corresponding period with supply of LDPE and LLDPE up by 14 and 8 respectively market sources said

Imports of HDPE inched up by 2 over the same period given the gradersquos comparatively higher prices compared with LLDPE and LDPE

Increased availability due to recent capacity expansions and start-ups in Asia the Middle East also fuels Chinarsquos appetite for import cargoes

In the first quarter of 2018 additional cargoes from Saudi Arabia were mostly from Sadara Chemical which started up its 750000 tonneyear swing plant and 350000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Al Jubail during late 2016 and early 2017 respectively

Cargoes of Iran origin augmented the total volume from the UAE as market players try to go around the financial sanctions on Tehran Kordestan Petrochemicalrsquos 300000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Iran came on stream in March 2017

UAErsquos Borouge has also ramped up pipe and HDPE film exports to China during the period according to a supplier in the Middle East

Meanwhile PE imports from Singapore surged 38 year on year while those from India more than doubled to 127000 tonnes according to China Customs data

The ban on waste plastics implemented in China in the year also bolstered imports of virgin PE Some waste plastics processed overseas and then re-entered the market as virgin products but these volumes were limited

Last year China has imported 194m tonnes of PE waste plastics while

volumes in 2018 will be negligible with the implemention of the ban

Chinarsquos PE production this year is expected to increase by around 7 to about 17m tonnes in 2018 with imports projected to grow by 102 to around 13m tonnes according to a source from state-owned petrochemical giant PetroChina

Domestic demand for PE on the other hand is forecast to grow by 8 this year mainly from the packaging and pipe markets

Chinarsquos ongoing campaign to switch to using gas for power generation instead of coal is expected to continue boosting demand for PE gas pipes this year

The packaging industry will also drive up PE consumption underpinned by growth in electronic commerce Chinarsquos express delivery volumes reached 137bn packages during January-April 2018 based on data from the recent China Express Industry Development Conference in May

Back to Quick Navigation | 37Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 38Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

By Jonathan Lopez

ICIS NewsThe leading news service for real-time ground breaking news and analysis on the global petrochemicals markets

The ICIS News services give you unrivalled access to the most in-depth stories impacting the petrochemicals markets influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions

Our team of global editors are reporting around the clock to bring you the latest news and analysis so that you get the full picture of market and pricing developments first providing you with invaluable foresight to take advantage of every opportunity and to stay ahead of your competitors

With ICIS News you will be the first to read

Breaking news on the chemical markets that will impact your business

News on market moves deals and announcements that will affect your organisation

Force majeures closures and developments that influence your commodity prices

Expert analysis on industry trends and hot topics ndash know whatrsquos happening and why

Searchable archive with over 14 million articles from the past 10 years

Chemical Business News Base (CBNB) is a premium resource available on ICIS News It provides you with an extensive external source of upstream and downstream petrochemical news in summarised snapshots so you can quickly and easily get the latest updates on whatrsquos important to you

CBNB offers readers

Fast and consistent coverage on news facts figures from the upstream and downstream petrochemicals industry

Access to over 700 news sources including technical and trade journals company literature market research reports stockbroker reports books and directories

User-friendly search functionality to find articles most relevant to you from around the globe

Quick and easy-to-read summarised snapshots of articles with option to access full articles from the original source

ICIS Chemical Business digital magazine (ICB) Our global team of experts digests and summarises the key issues and their potential impact on the chemical markets offering a comprehensive overview of the key developments that matter most-along with informed opinion and in-depth analysis

ICB features include

In-depth insight into chemical price changes and their impact on the markets

Understand the detail behind the headline news stories

Find out about supply amp demand trends and the factors impacting them

Get the complete picture of the chemical markets ndash all in one e-magazine

Easy access via e-magazine and premium magazine website

Find out more wwwiciscomnews

ICIS News offers access to additional sources including the ICIS Chemical Business Magazine and Chemical Business News Base (CBNB)

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYPROPYLENE (PP)

SE ASIA PP PRICES MAY COME UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 AS SUPPLY LENGTHENSBy Leanne Tan

Southeast Asiarsquos polypropylene (PP) market may come under pressure in the second half of the year on account of lengthening regional supply and weak downstream demand

Spot prices have been on the rise for most of May buoyed by bullish sentiment in the Chinese market and firm upstream feedstock costs

Margins for PP makers have been lower on average compared with levels in the previous year

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refinery amp Petrochemicals is scheduled to start up its 400000 tonneyear PP production unit in the third quarter The project was initially scheduled to start up in the first quarter of 2018

While domestic demand will continue to outstrip local production the countryrsquos reliance on imports may be diminished when the new plant starts up

Converters in the country have been opting to keep inventories lean in the short term amid expectations that prices may eventually weaken when more domestic supply becomes available

ldquoBuyers donrsquot want to buy too much import cargoes now not just because prices are high but also because there will be more locally-produced materials very soonrdquo a Vietnamese trader said

In Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan is expected to start commercial production at its expanded PP facility in Pasir Gudang in June or July The plantrsquos capacity will be raised by 200000 tonnesyear from 400000 tonnesyear

Import availabilities from South Korea are expected to lengthen in the medium-to-long term with S-Oil expected to complete an olefin downstream complex (ODC) at its Onsan refinery in Ulsan which will include a

405000 tonneyear PP capacity

On the demand front weakness is likely to persist in the second half with converters and end-users likely to continue buying spot cargoes on a hand-to-mouth basis

Indonesiarsquos demand in particular has been below expectations since the start of 2018 and this is likely to continue in the second half of the year according to market players

Back to Quick Navigation | 39Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Some players said import demand for dutiable cargoes may increase in the second half of the year as this is typically when the government issues duty exemption facilities

The duty exemption facilities are issued on a yearly basis which enable converters to import some PP volumes without extra cost

In Malaysia the removal of the 6 goods and services tax (GST) so far has had no immediate impact on the PP market although there are some expectations the move could potentially boost demand in the consumer market further down the road

In Vietnam demand for PP flat yarn has entered a seasonal lull from May to early July and will not pick up until August when the summer harvest begins

PP is widely used in the manufacture of woven sacks (for rice sacks) flexible packaging carpets household appliances and automotive parts

Spot PP prices in southeast Asia have been an uptrend for most of the first half

The PP market begun the year on a bullish note with spot prices surging by almost 10 over the course of two months all-origins PP flat yarn prices peaked at $1295tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia on 2 March

Healthy demand in China helped to provide support to spot prices in southeast Asia in the first quarter with a tight global spot supply leading to further price escalations

Some suppliers pulled back from the southeast Asian spot market to capitalise on better netbacks in other countries including Japan and Pakistan leading to further curtailed spot availability in southeast Asia

The market rally started to lose steam in early March amid subdued demand and a build-up of domestic inventories in China after the Lunar New Year holidays

The bearish sentiment soon spilled over into southeast Asia with Chinese suppliers pushing some volumes into southeast Asia amid an open arbitrage window

Vietnam remains the market of choice for Chinese exporters and PP import prices in the country plummeted as the result of the lengthened spot availability

However the bearish run was short-lived and prices soon bottomed out in early April

Bullish momentum in the upstream crude and naphtha markets propelled spot prices of polymers higher

Despite lacklustre downstream demand price hikes in April and May were commonplace as producers sought higher asking prices in view of narrower margins

TIGHT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT CHINA PP MARKET DESPITE WEAK DEMANDBy Dora Xue

Tight supply would buoy up Chinarsquos polypropylene (PP) prices in the near term despite weak downstream demand

The market is expecting heavy production losses following recent unexpected outages at five domestic facilities from May and scheduled turnarounds at other plants

In the week ended on 1 June domestic prices for PP flat yarn in east China were assessed at Chinese yuan (CNY) 9075tonne after a steady increase from early April according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos import prices for the same material stood at $1245tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China largely tracking movement in the domestic market over the past two months according to ICIS data

The strong PP prices have also started to deter buyers from purchasing more spot cargoes

ldquoPP prices are too high We donrsquot want to store too much in our warehouserdquo a buyer said

Downstream demand typically goes on a lull in June and July but any downward pressure on prices will be negated by a further tightening of supply as major plants will be taken off line for maintenance

ldquoWhen the maintenance season finishes in late June [PP] prices may start to go downrdquo a trader said

Demand is considered weakest at Qingdao in the eastern Shandong province due to government-mandated production cuts and logistics restrictions ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (SCO Summit) on 9-10 June

As of 1 June the combined polyolefin inventories of Chinese petrochemical majors Sinopec and PetroChina have declined back to normal levels of 700000 tonnes from a high of 1m tonnes in early March market sources said

Import supply to China may not improve in the short term as suppliers still deem other

Back to Quick Navigation | 40Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

Back to Quick Navigation | 43Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 31: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

OLEFINSETHYLENE

NE ASIA ETHYLENE H2 OUTLOOK HINGES ON NEW SUPPLY SM PLANTBy Yeow Pei Lin

Northeast (NE) Asiarsquos ethylene (C2) second-half 2018 outlook is uncertain as several crackers are scheduled for maintenance but such production losses could be offset by the start up of a new plant and cargoes from outside the region

More than 20 crackers in Asia are slated to undergo maintenance in 2018 with the estimated capacity losses totalling more than 185m tonnes Most of the turnarounds in the first half of the year were concentrated in Japan ndash a key exporter to China

However several more companies are to carry out turnarounds in June and the rest of the year

The impact on the regional balance will depend on the start-up progress of a new facility in South Korea and on whether the strong exports from southeast Asia and Europe in the first half of 2018 will continue

Shipments from Yeosu South Korea will start to slow down in August ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at complexes in that region

Exports will recover by December when Lotte Chemical brings on-stream an added capacity of 200000 tonnesyear at its Yeosu cracker

The facility will undergo an expansion during a turnaround from late September to October

Shipments from Ulsan another petrochemical cluster in South Korea will grow in the second half of 2018

Newcomer S-Oil is expected to begin commercial operations at its residue upgrading complex (RUC) in Onsan in the second half of June

The companyrsquos entire ethylene output of up

to around 200000 tonnesyear is intended for the merchant market as it does not have any downstream plants

Exports from southeast Asian producers will continue to be driven by the higher value from ethylene sales in the ethylene versus polyethylene (PE) trade-off

There will however be supply constraints

Four crackers in the region will undergo

maintenance and the affected producers include ExxonMobil and PTT Global Chemicals (PTTGC) that were regular exporters in the first half of 2018

Exports from Europe will likely be influenced by the performance of the PE sector

The outlook for the PE market in Europe is uncertain given the growing prospect of competitively-priced exports from the new US plants

Back to Quick Navigation | 28Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Ethylene costs in the US have been at low levels since early 2018 as production growth outpaces that for consumption

Since late 2017 about 3m tonnesyear of new ethylene capacity and about 35m tonnesyear of new PE capacity have started up in the US

The new crackers have been running well but several of the new PE plants struggled to reach full operating rates

Exports from Saudi Arabia are expected to be constrained by increased domestic consumption

Petro Rabigh announced in April that the last few plants in its Phase 2 project including a 75000 tonneyear ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) unit have started up

The companyrsquos ethylene exports could fall further in the second half of 2018 following the completion of its PE plant maintenance shutdowns earlier in the year

Chinarsquos import demand is poised for further growth when a new 260000 tonneyear styrene monomer (SM) plant starts up in the third quarter as planned

Anhui Haoyuan Chemical will be operating the unit in Fuyang Anhui on a standalone basis as its plans to build a methanol-to-olefin (MTO) plant have been put on hold amid high methanol prices

The plant will require around 78000 tonnes of ethylene annually to operate at maximum capacity

Based on the above factors it was not immediately clear if the ethylene prices in the second half will follow the volatile trend they displayed in the first five months of 2018

NE Asia spot ethylene prices were volatile from January to May as the impact of a heavy regional cracker turnaround schedule and strong Chinese demand was at times outweighed by strong exports from southeast Asia the Middle East and Europe

The market started the year at above a two and a half year high of $1415tonne CFR (cost amp freight) NE Asia in early January

Subsequent transacted prices fluctuated within a low $1200stonne to mid $1300stonne CFR NE Asia band in the five months ended 31 May

Prices in the first quarter were initially weighed down by ample supply from producers in the Middle East and Asia due to a series of PE plant shutdowns - both planned and unplanned

That was despite strong pre-Lunar New Year holiday restocking activities in China

Demand was bolstered by the start up of a 500000 tonneyear non-integrated SM plant and generally healthy downstream margins for producers outside the PE sector

End-users were also keen to build up their inventories because of the slow progress in their 2018 term contract discussions ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at facilities of key exporters in the region

In addition a major ethylene oxide (EO) maker was seeking more import cargoes following a disruption in supply from its upstream MTO unit The plant was shut twice between late November and the first half of February because of high feedstock methanol costs

The market recovered in early March in line with the start of the annual cracker turnaround season in northeast Asia where

scheduled capacity losses in 2018 will be overall higher than the previous year

That explained why the countryrsquos exports from January to April slumped by 14 year-on-year to 201274 tonnes

In late April northeast Asiarsquos spot prices fell again after a surprisingly large quantity of deep-sea spot cargoes were sold into Asia for delivery between the middle of May and the first half of June

There were at least 55000-60000 tonnes of cargoes from Europe in addition to 11000 tonnes of US supply for that delivery period Europe was in a long position because of derivative maintenance shutdowns and production problems

Continued strong exports from southeast Asia owing to downstream production issues and the weak performance of the linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) market contributed to the downbeat sentiment

The ample supply outweighed Chinarsquos robust import demand

Buying interest in China was strong for April and May arrival cargoes on the back

Back to Quick Navigation | 29Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

of healthy downstream margins for certain downstream markets such as SM EO and monoethylene glycol (MEG)

Ethylene buyers in China were also keen to book deep-sea cargoes to offset the expected regional production losses from cracker turnarounds

Prices rebounded quickly in mid-May

aided by a bullish SM market and reduced domestic supply

Some MTO operators lowered production in May as high feedstock methanol costs led to squeezed margins while a key producer in east China lowered its cracker run rates unexpectedly

Sharp increases in feedstock naphtha costs

which tracked gains on crude oil futures also helped set a floor to the earlier price declines

By early June spot ethylene prices had touched a 20-week high raising questions on whether the market will see similar price volatility in the second half of 2018

Producers will turn hawkish if the outlook for crude and naphtha markets remains upbeat

Back to Quick Navigation | 30Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSPROPYLENE

TIGHT NE ASIA PROPYLENE SUPPLY TO LIMIT H2 PRICE FLUCTUATIONSBy Joson Ng

Tight propylene (C3) supply in northeast Asia amid a heavy turnaround schedule in 2018 will continue supporting regional prices of the material into the second half

Sellers are likely to continue passing on firmer costs to buyers which are wary of October when heavy propylene production losses are expected

Buyersrsquo resistance in the key China market would keep any further increase in propylene prices in check with some downstream producers considering cutting output due to high feedstock costs

At the start of June propylene prices have weakened ending the strong general uptrend since end-March amid weakness in Chinarsquos domestic market as demand softened due to turnarounds at downstream polypropylene (PP) plants

However the downward pressure on regional prices may be temporary as overall supply in Asia is expected to be tight

In early June spot propylene prices in northeast Asia were about 9 higher from the start of 2018 according to ICIS data

The year started on a bullish note fuelled by a heavier cracker turnaround schedule compared with 2017 and higher premium levels concluded for contract cargoes

The uptrend was sustained into February due to restocking activities in various import markets in northeast Asia before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February

Before the holidays some South Korean producers were convinced the market will experience supply shortage as both GS Caltexrsquos fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity and Yeochun NCCrsquos (YNCC) cracker ndash which can produce 280000 tonnesyear of propylene ndash were due for maintenance in February through to April

But propylene prices surprisingly weakened from 9 February to end-March without demand support from Chinarsquos weak PP market which struggled through sluggish sales and high inventory after the countryrsquos week-long Lunar New Year holiday

A renewed wave of scheduled turnarounds at regional plants tightened supply and drove up propylene prices in April and May

In Taiwan Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) took its residue fluid catalytic

Back to Quick Navigation | 31Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

cracking (RFCC) unit with a 350000 tonneyear propylene capacity off stream from 1 March to mid-April while CPC Corp shut its 100000 tonneyear FCC unit on 10 April and restarted in early June

In South Korea GS Caltex also had a turnaround at its FCC unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity from 19 February to 5 April

SK Advanced shut its propane dehydrogenated (PDH) unit with 600000 tonneyear propylene capacity on 21 April to early May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian propylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 32Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

To talk to someone about price forecast reports call the numbers below or email us at salesukiciscomAsia-Pacific Europe Africa and Middle East The AmericasTel +65 6789 8828 Tel +44 20 8652 3335 Tel +1 713 525 2600 or Toll free +1 888 525 3255 (US and Canada only)

ICIS price forecast reportsSupply demand and price trends at a glance

ICIS price forecast reports provide a clear view of prices and supply and demand trends for the next 12 months Packed with vital information the report includes everything you need to assess where the market is heading and the impact or opportunity that presents for your business

To find out more or take a trial visit wwwiciscompriceforecast

Price Forecast Window

ICIS price forecasts are now available on the Dashboard channel using the Price Forecast Window which will enable users to

n Chart the price forecast against the last (rolling) twelve months of related price history

n Plot the last 12 months to view forecast progression and ICIS forecast accuracy

n Convert data into different currencies and units and download this data into Excel in order to easily enter into your own calculations

How price forecast reports can help youn Understand the marketUse ICIS price forecast reports to understand where the market is heading and identify the risks and the opportunities for your business What are the major demand developments for your product n Safeguard commercial decisionsUse market information to make better-informed business decisions relating to supply and demand Learn about changes in market capacities What factors will affect supply for you n Budgeting and planningWhether you are planning how much you will be spending in the short-to medium or even long term use the price forecast reports to help assess future prices for your product What will the price of your product be in six monthsrsquo time

Price forecast reports currently

available

Available as price forecast windows only

Polypropylene

Polyethylene

Benzene

StyrenePolystyrene

Methanol

Ethylene

Propylene

Styrene

Asia Europe US Global

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

OLEFINSBUTADIENE

ASIA BD TO FLUCTUATE IN H2 AS SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE SHIFTSBy Helen Yan

Asiarsquos butadiene (BD) spot prices for July shipments are likely to face downward pressure but any price downtrend is likely to reverse when cracker turnarounds start to kick in from September onwards

BD prices are expected to be weighed down before seeing support again in the third quarter as the supply and demand balance shifts during this period

The fourth quarter will likely see support for BD prices although the increases may be tempered by resistance from the downstream synthetic rubber (SR) makers to any significant price hikes

The busy cracker turnaround season in September-November will likely see supply tightening at the same time that demand is expected to pick up during this period

Several crackers and BD units including South Korearsquos Lotte Chemical LG Chem and Chinarsquos Shanghai Secco and Maoming Petrochemical are scheduled to shut during

the September to November time frame

In the near term BD spot prices are likely to continue to trend lower as demand wanes while supply at the same time is expected to lengthen due to an influx of deep-sea cargoes and regional cracker restarts

More than 15000 tonnes of deep-sea cargoes from EU are expected to arrive in Asia in June and July at the same time that crackers in Asia including Indiarsquos Haldia Petrochemical and Indonesiarsquos Chandra Asri resume their production following their maintenance shutdowns

On 8 June spot prices fell to $1725tonne CFR (cost amp freight) northeast (NE) Asia the second consecutive week of decline after spiralling upwards in the two months since early April

BD spot prices had increased by more than 40 since early April peaking at $1800tonne CFR NE Asia on 25 May

Strong demand from derivative acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) makers which were running their plants at optimal rates had bolstered the BD price upsurge during this period

However derivative styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) and polybutadiene rubber (PBR) producers the key consumers of BD cut their production output given the continued erosion in margins

Several major SBR and PBR producers said their margins had fallen into negative territory and retreated from the BD spot market in June

Chinese spot appetite in particular tapered off as domestic BD prices were lower compared with the US dollar-denominated import prices

In China Hangzhou Zhechen Jilin Petrochemical Zhejiang Transfar and Shen Hua Chemical were some of the SBR and PBR plants that are shut for maintenance in June and July

Several SBR and PBR plants in Taiwan and South Korea were also running at lower rates following the 40 BD price spike in the two months from early April to end-May

In South Korea major SR producer Korea Kumho Petrochemical PC was running its SBR and PBR plants at reduced rates

Back to Quick Navigation | 33Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian butadiene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 34Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Similarly Taiwanrsquos TSRC also cut the production output of its SBR and PBR plants

The outlook for the fourth quarter is expected to see a different turn of events with SBR and PBR plants resuming their production and ramping up their operating rates while supply during the last quarter is expected to tighten from the heavy cracker turnaround season

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYETHYLENE (PE)

SOUTHEAST ASIA PE MARKET FACES LONGER H2 SUPPLY WEAK DEMANDBy Felita Widjaja

Southeast Asiarsquos polyethylene (PE) market may be facing longer supply in the second half hinging on how the US-China trade spat plays out amid the regionrsquos weakening demand for imports

Global PE trade flows will be affected should China the biggest importer of spot PE cargoes in the world decide to impose retaliatory 25 tariff on US cargoes

Southeast Asia as an alternative buying region might be hard pressed to absorb additional supply from the US where massive PE capacities recently started up which were meant to cater to huge Chinese demand

Around 5m tonnes of additional US PE capacities are expected from several major projects including those in the pipeline to start up within the second half of 2018

China primarily imports PE cargoes from Asia and the Middle East while the US is its sixth leading PE supplier in 2017

ldquoEventually more substantial and regular volume of US [PE] cargoes are expected to be traded in Asia in the second half of the year as we have yet to see them in the first half of this yearrdquo said a regional trader

Any changes in trade flows would pose challenges to US suppliers in the short term as they would need to revamp their logistics and distribution channels to redirect cargoes to other markets

Suppliers from the Middle East meanwhile might take the opportunity to supply more cargoes to China and would mean fewer volumes available to the southeast Asian market

The Middle East is southeast Asiarsquos major PE supplier

Demand for PE imports in southeast Asia has been weak amid lower prices in

Back to Quick Navigation | 35Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

the domestic markets as in the case of Thailand

ldquoThai traders are not keen to import as local prices are more competitive so they do not have the margin to sell the imported cargoes in local market Only some converters who need specific cargoes continue to importrdquo said a local Thai trader

Malaysia and Indonesia with predominantly Muslim populations have seen market activity slow down since mid-May when the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan started Ramadan ends with the Eid ul-Fitr holiday on 15 June

The Indonesian government has declared a longer Eid-ul Fitr holiday this year from 11-20 June

Markets in Singapore and the Philippines will be closed for the mid-June holiday as well

With supply expected to become long some market players expect regional PE prices in July and August to ease from

June with restocking activities expected to kick in towards the end of the third quarter

In the first half of 2018 southeast Asiarsquos average prices for commodity PE were largely stable to firm owing to suppliersrsquo relatively comfortable-to-tight supply for most of the period

At the start of June high density polyethylene (HDPE) film grade prices averaged $1395tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia while linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) film were at $1210tonne CFR SE Asia and $1265tonne CFR SE Asia respectively according to ICIS data

Prices had spiked in the first quarter as suppliers were holding comfortable-to-tight inventory as several regional producers have scheduled turnarounds at their plants in March Production issues and shutdowns in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia also limited availability of imports to southeast Asia during this period

Supply for HDPE film was particularly tight as some producers from the Middle East as well as Asia switched their focus into making HDPE pipe grade amid robust demand and better netbacks

The price uptrend across most PE grades could not be sustained in the second quarter although prices remained relatively stable-to-firm

The depreciation of local currencies in southeast Asia against the US dollar in most of the second quarter was also curbing overall demand for imports A weaker currency makes US dollar-denominated imports expensive

ldquoIndonesian buyers have not been buying much cargoes as the market slowed down during Ramadan and also because of weak rupiah which led the central bank to increase interest rate to limit the depreciationrdquo said a regional producer

CHINA PE IMPORTS TO STAY STRONG AMID DOMESTIC PLANT TURNAROUNDS By Angie Li

Chinarsquos polyethylene (PE) imports are expected to remain strong for the rest of the year after posting record volumes in January to April 2018 amid scheduled turnarounds at domestic facilities

Buyers in China have been accumulating imported PE cargoes as these were priced lower compared futures prices since the start of the year

More cargoes will be available to China as new capacities in the US are expected to boost production

For the month of May the countryrsquos PE imports are projected to reach 12m tonnes higher than the monthly average in the first four months of 2018

In January to April 2018 its PE imports volumes totaled 447m tonnes up by 12 from the previous corresponding period according to industry sources

The import volumes were making up for the production losses in the domestic market due to scheduled turnarounds

On 1 June low density PE (LDPE) imports were assessed at $1155-1180tonne linear low density PE (LLDPE) stood at $1150-1170tonne while high density PE (HDPE) film products were at $1340-1400tonne according to ICIS data

The prices have increased 15-62 from end-March but the gains came in lower than market playersrsquo expectations considering the heavy production loss due to turnarounds from April

Back to Quick Navigation | 36Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

An estimated 500000 tonnes are expected to be shaved in the second quarter due to scheduled maintenance at domestic facilities according ICIS data

ldquoWe thought the hefty plant turnarounds in the second quarter should lead to a surge in PE prices but the LDPE and LLDPE prices were less than satisfactory although HDPE prices [were] highrdquo said an east China-based trader referring to both the import and domestic PE prices

Strong imports amid hedging activities bloated the total supply in China in January to April to 998m tonnes up by 8 from the previous corresponding period with supply of LDPE and LLDPE up by 14 and 8 respectively market sources said

Imports of HDPE inched up by 2 over the same period given the gradersquos comparatively higher prices compared with LLDPE and LDPE

Increased availability due to recent capacity expansions and start-ups in Asia the Middle East also fuels Chinarsquos appetite for import cargoes

In the first quarter of 2018 additional cargoes from Saudi Arabia were mostly from Sadara Chemical which started up its 750000 tonneyear swing plant and 350000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Al Jubail during late 2016 and early 2017 respectively

Cargoes of Iran origin augmented the total volume from the UAE as market players try to go around the financial sanctions on Tehran Kordestan Petrochemicalrsquos 300000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Iran came on stream in March 2017

UAErsquos Borouge has also ramped up pipe and HDPE film exports to China during the period according to a supplier in the Middle East

Meanwhile PE imports from Singapore surged 38 year on year while those from India more than doubled to 127000 tonnes according to China Customs data

The ban on waste plastics implemented in China in the year also bolstered imports of virgin PE Some waste plastics processed overseas and then re-entered the market as virgin products but these volumes were limited

Last year China has imported 194m tonnes of PE waste plastics while

volumes in 2018 will be negligible with the implemention of the ban

Chinarsquos PE production this year is expected to increase by around 7 to about 17m tonnes in 2018 with imports projected to grow by 102 to around 13m tonnes according to a source from state-owned petrochemical giant PetroChina

Domestic demand for PE on the other hand is forecast to grow by 8 this year mainly from the packaging and pipe markets

Chinarsquos ongoing campaign to switch to using gas for power generation instead of coal is expected to continue boosting demand for PE gas pipes this year

The packaging industry will also drive up PE consumption underpinned by growth in electronic commerce Chinarsquos express delivery volumes reached 137bn packages during January-April 2018 based on data from the recent China Express Industry Development Conference in May

Back to Quick Navigation | 37Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 38Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

By Jonathan Lopez

ICIS NewsThe leading news service for real-time ground breaking news and analysis on the global petrochemicals markets

The ICIS News services give you unrivalled access to the most in-depth stories impacting the petrochemicals markets influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions

Our team of global editors are reporting around the clock to bring you the latest news and analysis so that you get the full picture of market and pricing developments first providing you with invaluable foresight to take advantage of every opportunity and to stay ahead of your competitors

With ICIS News you will be the first to read

Breaking news on the chemical markets that will impact your business

News on market moves deals and announcements that will affect your organisation

Force majeures closures and developments that influence your commodity prices

Expert analysis on industry trends and hot topics ndash know whatrsquos happening and why

Searchable archive with over 14 million articles from the past 10 years

Chemical Business News Base (CBNB) is a premium resource available on ICIS News It provides you with an extensive external source of upstream and downstream petrochemical news in summarised snapshots so you can quickly and easily get the latest updates on whatrsquos important to you

CBNB offers readers

Fast and consistent coverage on news facts figures from the upstream and downstream petrochemicals industry

Access to over 700 news sources including technical and trade journals company literature market research reports stockbroker reports books and directories

User-friendly search functionality to find articles most relevant to you from around the globe

Quick and easy-to-read summarised snapshots of articles with option to access full articles from the original source

ICIS Chemical Business digital magazine (ICB) Our global team of experts digests and summarises the key issues and their potential impact on the chemical markets offering a comprehensive overview of the key developments that matter most-along with informed opinion and in-depth analysis

ICB features include

In-depth insight into chemical price changes and their impact on the markets

Understand the detail behind the headline news stories

Find out about supply amp demand trends and the factors impacting them

Get the complete picture of the chemical markets ndash all in one e-magazine

Easy access via e-magazine and premium magazine website

Find out more wwwiciscomnews

ICIS News offers access to additional sources including the ICIS Chemical Business Magazine and Chemical Business News Base (CBNB)

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYPROPYLENE (PP)

SE ASIA PP PRICES MAY COME UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 AS SUPPLY LENGTHENSBy Leanne Tan

Southeast Asiarsquos polypropylene (PP) market may come under pressure in the second half of the year on account of lengthening regional supply and weak downstream demand

Spot prices have been on the rise for most of May buoyed by bullish sentiment in the Chinese market and firm upstream feedstock costs

Margins for PP makers have been lower on average compared with levels in the previous year

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refinery amp Petrochemicals is scheduled to start up its 400000 tonneyear PP production unit in the third quarter The project was initially scheduled to start up in the first quarter of 2018

While domestic demand will continue to outstrip local production the countryrsquos reliance on imports may be diminished when the new plant starts up

Converters in the country have been opting to keep inventories lean in the short term amid expectations that prices may eventually weaken when more domestic supply becomes available

ldquoBuyers donrsquot want to buy too much import cargoes now not just because prices are high but also because there will be more locally-produced materials very soonrdquo a Vietnamese trader said

In Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan is expected to start commercial production at its expanded PP facility in Pasir Gudang in June or July The plantrsquos capacity will be raised by 200000 tonnesyear from 400000 tonnesyear

Import availabilities from South Korea are expected to lengthen in the medium-to-long term with S-Oil expected to complete an olefin downstream complex (ODC) at its Onsan refinery in Ulsan which will include a

405000 tonneyear PP capacity

On the demand front weakness is likely to persist in the second half with converters and end-users likely to continue buying spot cargoes on a hand-to-mouth basis

Indonesiarsquos demand in particular has been below expectations since the start of 2018 and this is likely to continue in the second half of the year according to market players

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Some players said import demand for dutiable cargoes may increase in the second half of the year as this is typically when the government issues duty exemption facilities

The duty exemption facilities are issued on a yearly basis which enable converters to import some PP volumes without extra cost

In Malaysia the removal of the 6 goods and services tax (GST) so far has had no immediate impact on the PP market although there are some expectations the move could potentially boost demand in the consumer market further down the road

In Vietnam demand for PP flat yarn has entered a seasonal lull from May to early July and will not pick up until August when the summer harvest begins

PP is widely used in the manufacture of woven sacks (for rice sacks) flexible packaging carpets household appliances and automotive parts

Spot PP prices in southeast Asia have been an uptrend for most of the first half

The PP market begun the year on a bullish note with spot prices surging by almost 10 over the course of two months all-origins PP flat yarn prices peaked at $1295tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia on 2 March

Healthy demand in China helped to provide support to spot prices in southeast Asia in the first quarter with a tight global spot supply leading to further price escalations

Some suppliers pulled back from the southeast Asian spot market to capitalise on better netbacks in other countries including Japan and Pakistan leading to further curtailed spot availability in southeast Asia

The market rally started to lose steam in early March amid subdued demand and a build-up of domestic inventories in China after the Lunar New Year holidays

The bearish sentiment soon spilled over into southeast Asia with Chinese suppliers pushing some volumes into southeast Asia amid an open arbitrage window

Vietnam remains the market of choice for Chinese exporters and PP import prices in the country plummeted as the result of the lengthened spot availability

However the bearish run was short-lived and prices soon bottomed out in early April

Bullish momentum in the upstream crude and naphtha markets propelled spot prices of polymers higher

Despite lacklustre downstream demand price hikes in April and May were commonplace as producers sought higher asking prices in view of narrower margins

TIGHT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT CHINA PP MARKET DESPITE WEAK DEMANDBy Dora Xue

Tight supply would buoy up Chinarsquos polypropylene (PP) prices in the near term despite weak downstream demand

The market is expecting heavy production losses following recent unexpected outages at five domestic facilities from May and scheduled turnarounds at other plants

In the week ended on 1 June domestic prices for PP flat yarn in east China were assessed at Chinese yuan (CNY) 9075tonne after a steady increase from early April according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos import prices for the same material stood at $1245tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China largely tracking movement in the domestic market over the past two months according to ICIS data

The strong PP prices have also started to deter buyers from purchasing more spot cargoes

ldquoPP prices are too high We donrsquot want to store too much in our warehouserdquo a buyer said

Downstream demand typically goes on a lull in June and July but any downward pressure on prices will be negated by a further tightening of supply as major plants will be taken off line for maintenance

ldquoWhen the maintenance season finishes in late June [PP] prices may start to go downrdquo a trader said

Demand is considered weakest at Qingdao in the eastern Shandong province due to government-mandated production cuts and logistics restrictions ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (SCO Summit) on 9-10 June

As of 1 June the combined polyolefin inventories of Chinese petrochemical majors Sinopec and PetroChina have declined back to normal levels of 700000 tonnes from a high of 1m tonnes in early March market sources said

Import supply to China may not improve in the short term as suppliers still deem other

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markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

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The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 32: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

Ethylene costs in the US have been at low levels since early 2018 as production growth outpaces that for consumption

Since late 2017 about 3m tonnesyear of new ethylene capacity and about 35m tonnesyear of new PE capacity have started up in the US

The new crackers have been running well but several of the new PE plants struggled to reach full operating rates

Exports from Saudi Arabia are expected to be constrained by increased domestic consumption

Petro Rabigh announced in April that the last few plants in its Phase 2 project including a 75000 tonneyear ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) unit have started up

The companyrsquos ethylene exports could fall further in the second half of 2018 following the completion of its PE plant maintenance shutdowns earlier in the year

Chinarsquos import demand is poised for further growth when a new 260000 tonneyear styrene monomer (SM) plant starts up in the third quarter as planned

Anhui Haoyuan Chemical will be operating the unit in Fuyang Anhui on a standalone basis as its plans to build a methanol-to-olefin (MTO) plant have been put on hold amid high methanol prices

The plant will require around 78000 tonnes of ethylene annually to operate at maximum capacity

Based on the above factors it was not immediately clear if the ethylene prices in the second half will follow the volatile trend they displayed in the first five months of 2018

NE Asia spot ethylene prices were volatile from January to May as the impact of a heavy regional cracker turnaround schedule and strong Chinese demand was at times outweighed by strong exports from southeast Asia the Middle East and Europe

The market started the year at above a two and a half year high of $1415tonne CFR (cost amp freight) NE Asia in early January

Subsequent transacted prices fluctuated within a low $1200stonne to mid $1300stonne CFR NE Asia band in the five months ended 31 May

Prices in the first quarter were initially weighed down by ample supply from producers in the Middle East and Asia due to a series of PE plant shutdowns - both planned and unplanned

That was despite strong pre-Lunar New Year holiday restocking activities in China

Demand was bolstered by the start up of a 500000 tonneyear non-integrated SM plant and generally healthy downstream margins for producers outside the PE sector

End-users were also keen to build up their inventories because of the slow progress in their 2018 term contract discussions ahead of a series of maintenance shutdowns at facilities of key exporters in the region

In addition a major ethylene oxide (EO) maker was seeking more import cargoes following a disruption in supply from its upstream MTO unit The plant was shut twice between late November and the first half of February because of high feedstock methanol costs

The market recovered in early March in line with the start of the annual cracker turnaround season in northeast Asia where

scheduled capacity losses in 2018 will be overall higher than the previous year

That explained why the countryrsquos exports from January to April slumped by 14 year-on-year to 201274 tonnes

In late April northeast Asiarsquos spot prices fell again after a surprisingly large quantity of deep-sea spot cargoes were sold into Asia for delivery between the middle of May and the first half of June

There were at least 55000-60000 tonnes of cargoes from Europe in addition to 11000 tonnes of US supply for that delivery period Europe was in a long position because of derivative maintenance shutdowns and production problems

Continued strong exports from southeast Asia owing to downstream production issues and the weak performance of the linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) market contributed to the downbeat sentiment

The ample supply outweighed Chinarsquos robust import demand

Buying interest in China was strong for April and May arrival cargoes on the back

Back to Quick Navigation | 29Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

of healthy downstream margins for certain downstream markets such as SM EO and monoethylene glycol (MEG)

Ethylene buyers in China were also keen to book deep-sea cargoes to offset the expected regional production losses from cracker turnarounds

Prices rebounded quickly in mid-May

aided by a bullish SM market and reduced domestic supply

Some MTO operators lowered production in May as high feedstock methanol costs led to squeezed margins while a key producer in east China lowered its cracker run rates unexpectedly

Sharp increases in feedstock naphtha costs

which tracked gains on crude oil futures also helped set a floor to the earlier price declines

By early June spot ethylene prices had touched a 20-week high raising questions on whether the market will see similar price volatility in the second half of 2018

Producers will turn hawkish if the outlook for crude and naphtha markets remains upbeat

Back to Quick Navigation | 30Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSPROPYLENE

TIGHT NE ASIA PROPYLENE SUPPLY TO LIMIT H2 PRICE FLUCTUATIONSBy Joson Ng

Tight propylene (C3) supply in northeast Asia amid a heavy turnaround schedule in 2018 will continue supporting regional prices of the material into the second half

Sellers are likely to continue passing on firmer costs to buyers which are wary of October when heavy propylene production losses are expected

Buyersrsquo resistance in the key China market would keep any further increase in propylene prices in check with some downstream producers considering cutting output due to high feedstock costs

At the start of June propylene prices have weakened ending the strong general uptrend since end-March amid weakness in Chinarsquos domestic market as demand softened due to turnarounds at downstream polypropylene (PP) plants

However the downward pressure on regional prices may be temporary as overall supply in Asia is expected to be tight

In early June spot propylene prices in northeast Asia were about 9 higher from the start of 2018 according to ICIS data

The year started on a bullish note fuelled by a heavier cracker turnaround schedule compared with 2017 and higher premium levels concluded for contract cargoes

The uptrend was sustained into February due to restocking activities in various import markets in northeast Asia before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February

Before the holidays some South Korean producers were convinced the market will experience supply shortage as both GS Caltexrsquos fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity and Yeochun NCCrsquos (YNCC) cracker ndash which can produce 280000 tonnesyear of propylene ndash were due for maintenance in February through to April

But propylene prices surprisingly weakened from 9 February to end-March without demand support from Chinarsquos weak PP market which struggled through sluggish sales and high inventory after the countryrsquos week-long Lunar New Year holiday

A renewed wave of scheduled turnarounds at regional plants tightened supply and drove up propylene prices in April and May

In Taiwan Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) took its residue fluid catalytic

Back to Quick Navigation | 31Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

cracking (RFCC) unit with a 350000 tonneyear propylene capacity off stream from 1 March to mid-April while CPC Corp shut its 100000 tonneyear FCC unit on 10 April and restarted in early June

In South Korea GS Caltex also had a turnaround at its FCC unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity from 19 February to 5 April

SK Advanced shut its propane dehydrogenated (PDH) unit with 600000 tonneyear propylene capacity on 21 April to early May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian propylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 32Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

To talk to someone about price forecast reports call the numbers below or email us at salesukiciscomAsia-Pacific Europe Africa and Middle East The AmericasTel +65 6789 8828 Tel +44 20 8652 3335 Tel +1 713 525 2600 or Toll free +1 888 525 3255 (US and Canada only)

ICIS price forecast reportsSupply demand and price trends at a glance

ICIS price forecast reports provide a clear view of prices and supply and demand trends for the next 12 months Packed with vital information the report includes everything you need to assess where the market is heading and the impact or opportunity that presents for your business

To find out more or take a trial visit wwwiciscompriceforecast

Price Forecast Window

ICIS price forecasts are now available on the Dashboard channel using the Price Forecast Window which will enable users to

n Chart the price forecast against the last (rolling) twelve months of related price history

n Plot the last 12 months to view forecast progression and ICIS forecast accuracy

n Convert data into different currencies and units and download this data into Excel in order to easily enter into your own calculations

How price forecast reports can help youn Understand the marketUse ICIS price forecast reports to understand where the market is heading and identify the risks and the opportunities for your business What are the major demand developments for your product n Safeguard commercial decisionsUse market information to make better-informed business decisions relating to supply and demand Learn about changes in market capacities What factors will affect supply for you n Budgeting and planningWhether you are planning how much you will be spending in the short-to medium or even long term use the price forecast reports to help assess future prices for your product What will the price of your product be in six monthsrsquo time

Price forecast reports currently

available

Available as price forecast windows only

Polypropylene

Polyethylene

Benzene

StyrenePolystyrene

Methanol

Ethylene

Propylene

Styrene

Asia Europe US Global

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

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OLEFINSBUTADIENE

ASIA BD TO FLUCTUATE IN H2 AS SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE SHIFTSBy Helen Yan

Asiarsquos butadiene (BD) spot prices for July shipments are likely to face downward pressure but any price downtrend is likely to reverse when cracker turnarounds start to kick in from September onwards

BD prices are expected to be weighed down before seeing support again in the third quarter as the supply and demand balance shifts during this period

The fourth quarter will likely see support for BD prices although the increases may be tempered by resistance from the downstream synthetic rubber (SR) makers to any significant price hikes

The busy cracker turnaround season in September-November will likely see supply tightening at the same time that demand is expected to pick up during this period

Several crackers and BD units including South Korearsquos Lotte Chemical LG Chem and Chinarsquos Shanghai Secco and Maoming Petrochemical are scheduled to shut during

the September to November time frame

In the near term BD spot prices are likely to continue to trend lower as demand wanes while supply at the same time is expected to lengthen due to an influx of deep-sea cargoes and regional cracker restarts

More than 15000 tonnes of deep-sea cargoes from EU are expected to arrive in Asia in June and July at the same time that crackers in Asia including Indiarsquos Haldia Petrochemical and Indonesiarsquos Chandra Asri resume their production following their maintenance shutdowns

On 8 June spot prices fell to $1725tonne CFR (cost amp freight) northeast (NE) Asia the second consecutive week of decline after spiralling upwards in the two months since early April

BD spot prices had increased by more than 40 since early April peaking at $1800tonne CFR NE Asia on 25 May

Strong demand from derivative acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) makers which were running their plants at optimal rates had bolstered the BD price upsurge during this period

However derivative styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) and polybutadiene rubber (PBR) producers the key consumers of BD cut their production output given the continued erosion in margins

Several major SBR and PBR producers said their margins had fallen into negative territory and retreated from the BD spot market in June

Chinese spot appetite in particular tapered off as domestic BD prices were lower compared with the US dollar-denominated import prices

In China Hangzhou Zhechen Jilin Petrochemical Zhejiang Transfar and Shen Hua Chemical were some of the SBR and PBR plants that are shut for maintenance in June and July

Several SBR and PBR plants in Taiwan and South Korea were also running at lower rates following the 40 BD price spike in the two months from early April to end-May

In South Korea major SR producer Korea Kumho Petrochemical PC was running its SBR and PBR plants at reduced rates

Back to Quick Navigation | 33Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian butadiene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 34Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Similarly Taiwanrsquos TSRC also cut the production output of its SBR and PBR plants

The outlook for the fourth quarter is expected to see a different turn of events with SBR and PBR plants resuming their production and ramping up their operating rates while supply during the last quarter is expected to tighten from the heavy cracker turnaround season

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYETHYLENE (PE)

SOUTHEAST ASIA PE MARKET FACES LONGER H2 SUPPLY WEAK DEMANDBy Felita Widjaja

Southeast Asiarsquos polyethylene (PE) market may be facing longer supply in the second half hinging on how the US-China trade spat plays out amid the regionrsquos weakening demand for imports

Global PE trade flows will be affected should China the biggest importer of spot PE cargoes in the world decide to impose retaliatory 25 tariff on US cargoes

Southeast Asia as an alternative buying region might be hard pressed to absorb additional supply from the US where massive PE capacities recently started up which were meant to cater to huge Chinese demand

Around 5m tonnes of additional US PE capacities are expected from several major projects including those in the pipeline to start up within the second half of 2018

China primarily imports PE cargoes from Asia and the Middle East while the US is its sixth leading PE supplier in 2017

ldquoEventually more substantial and regular volume of US [PE] cargoes are expected to be traded in Asia in the second half of the year as we have yet to see them in the first half of this yearrdquo said a regional trader

Any changes in trade flows would pose challenges to US suppliers in the short term as they would need to revamp their logistics and distribution channels to redirect cargoes to other markets

Suppliers from the Middle East meanwhile might take the opportunity to supply more cargoes to China and would mean fewer volumes available to the southeast Asian market

The Middle East is southeast Asiarsquos major PE supplier

Demand for PE imports in southeast Asia has been weak amid lower prices in

Back to Quick Navigation | 35Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

the domestic markets as in the case of Thailand

ldquoThai traders are not keen to import as local prices are more competitive so they do not have the margin to sell the imported cargoes in local market Only some converters who need specific cargoes continue to importrdquo said a local Thai trader

Malaysia and Indonesia with predominantly Muslim populations have seen market activity slow down since mid-May when the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan started Ramadan ends with the Eid ul-Fitr holiday on 15 June

The Indonesian government has declared a longer Eid-ul Fitr holiday this year from 11-20 June

Markets in Singapore and the Philippines will be closed for the mid-June holiday as well

With supply expected to become long some market players expect regional PE prices in July and August to ease from

June with restocking activities expected to kick in towards the end of the third quarter

In the first half of 2018 southeast Asiarsquos average prices for commodity PE were largely stable to firm owing to suppliersrsquo relatively comfortable-to-tight supply for most of the period

At the start of June high density polyethylene (HDPE) film grade prices averaged $1395tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia while linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) film were at $1210tonne CFR SE Asia and $1265tonne CFR SE Asia respectively according to ICIS data

Prices had spiked in the first quarter as suppliers were holding comfortable-to-tight inventory as several regional producers have scheduled turnarounds at their plants in March Production issues and shutdowns in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia also limited availability of imports to southeast Asia during this period

Supply for HDPE film was particularly tight as some producers from the Middle East as well as Asia switched their focus into making HDPE pipe grade amid robust demand and better netbacks

The price uptrend across most PE grades could not be sustained in the second quarter although prices remained relatively stable-to-firm

The depreciation of local currencies in southeast Asia against the US dollar in most of the second quarter was also curbing overall demand for imports A weaker currency makes US dollar-denominated imports expensive

ldquoIndonesian buyers have not been buying much cargoes as the market slowed down during Ramadan and also because of weak rupiah which led the central bank to increase interest rate to limit the depreciationrdquo said a regional producer

CHINA PE IMPORTS TO STAY STRONG AMID DOMESTIC PLANT TURNAROUNDS By Angie Li

Chinarsquos polyethylene (PE) imports are expected to remain strong for the rest of the year after posting record volumes in January to April 2018 amid scheduled turnarounds at domestic facilities

Buyers in China have been accumulating imported PE cargoes as these were priced lower compared futures prices since the start of the year

More cargoes will be available to China as new capacities in the US are expected to boost production

For the month of May the countryrsquos PE imports are projected to reach 12m tonnes higher than the monthly average in the first four months of 2018

In January to April 2018 its PE imports volumes totaled 447m tonnes up by 12 from the previous corresponding period according to industry sources

The import volumes were making up for the production losses in the domestic market due to scheduled turnarounds

On 1 June low density PE (LDPE) imports were assessed at $1155-1180tonne linear low density PE (LLDPE) stood at $1150-1170tonne while high density PE (HDPE) film products were at $1340-1400tonne according to ICIS data

The prices have increased 15-62 from end-March but the gains came in lower than market playersrsquo expectations considering the heavy production loss due to turnarounds from April

Back to Quick Navigation | 36Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

An estimated 500000 tonnes are expected to be shaved in the second quarter due to scheduled maintenance at domestic facilities according ICIS data

ldquoWe thought the hefty plant turnarounds in the second quarter should lead to a surge in PE prices but the LDPE and LLDPE prices were less than satisfactory although HDPE prices [were] highrdquo said an east China-based trader referring to both the import and domestic PE prices

Strong imports amid hedging activities bloated the total supply in China in January to April to 998m tonnes up by 8 from the previous corresponding period with supply of LDPE and LLDPE up by 14 and 8 respectively market sources said

Imports of HDPE inched up by 2 over the same period given the gradersquos comparatively higher prices compared with LLDPE and LDPE

Increased availability due to recent capacity expansions and start-ups in Asia the Middle East also fuels Chinarsquos appetite for import cargoes

In the first quarter of 2018 additional cargoes from Saudi Arabia were mostly from Sadara Chemical which started up its 750000 tonneyear swing plant and 350000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Al Jubail during late 2016 and early 2017 respectively

Cargoes of Iran origin augmented the total volume from the UAE as market players try to go around the financial sanctions on Tehran Kordestan Petrochemicalrsquos 300000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Iran came on stream in March 2017

UAErsquos Borouge has also ramped up pipe and HDPE film exports to China during the period according to a supplier in the Middle East

Meanwhile PE imports from Singapore surged 38 year on year while those from India more than doubled to 127000 tonnes according to China Customs data

The ban on waste plastics implemented in China in the year also bolstered imports of virgin PE Some waste plastics processed overseas and then re-entered the market as virgin products but these volumes were limited

Last year China has imported 194m tonnes of PE waste plastics while

volumes in 2018 will be negligible with the implemention of the ban

Chinarsquos PE production this year is expected to increase by around 7 to about 17m tonnes in 2018 with imports projected to grow by 102 to around 13m tonnes according to a source from state-owned petrochemical giant PetroChina

Domestic demand for PE on the other hand is forecast to grow by 8 this year mainly from the packaging and pipe markets

Chinarsquos ongoing campaign to switch to using gas for power generation instead of coal is expected to continue boosting demand for PE gas pipes this year

The packaging industry will also drive up PE consumption underpinned by growth in electronic commerce Chinarsquos express delivery volumes reached 137bn packages during January-April 2018 based on data from the recent China Express Industry Development Conference in May

Back to Quick Navigation | 37Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 38Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

By Jonathan Lopez

ICIS NewsThe leading news service for real-time ground breaking news and analysis on the global petrochemicals markets

The ICIS News services give you unrivalled access to the most in-depth stories impacting the petrochemicals markets influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions

Our team of global editors are reporting around the clock to bring you the latest news and analysis so that you get the full picture of market and pricing developments first providing you with invaluable foresight to take advantage of every opportunity and to stay ahead of your competitors

With ICIS News you will be the first to read

Breaking news on the chemical markets that will impact your business

News on market moves deals and announcements that will affect your organisation

Force majeures closures and developments that influence your commodity prices

Expert analysis on industry trends and hot topics ndash know whatrsquos happening and why

Searchable archive with over 14 million articles from the past 10 years

Chemical Business News Base (CBNB) is a premium resource available on ICIS News It provides you with an extensive external source of upstream and downstream petrochemical news in summarised snapshots so you can quickly and easily get the latest updates on whatrsquos important to you

CBNB offers readers

Fast and consistent coverage on news facts figures from the upstream and downstream petrochemicals industry

Access to over 700 news sources including technical and trade journals company literature market research reports stockbroker reports books and directories

User-friendly search functionality to find articles most relevant to you from around the globe

Quick and easy-to-read summarised snapshots of articles with option to access full articles from the original source

ICIS Chemical Business digital magazine (ICB) Our global team of experts digests and summarises the key issues and their potential impact on the chemical markets offering a comprehensive overview of the key developments that matter most-along with informed opinion and in-depth analysis

ICB features include

In-depth insight into chemical price changes and their impact on the markets

Understand the detail behind the headline news stories

Find out about supply amp demand trends and the factors impacting them

Get the complete picture of the chemical markets ndash all in one e-magazine

Easy access via e-magazine and premium magazine website

Find out more wwwiciscomnews

ICIS News offers access to additional sources including the ICIS Chemical Business Magazine and Chemical Business News Base (CBNB)

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYPROPYLENE (PP)

SE ASIA PP PRICES MAY COME UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 AS SUPPLY LENGTHENSBy Leanne Tan

Southeast Asiarsquos polypropylene (PP) market may come under pressure in the second half of the year on account of lengthening regional supply and weak downstream demand

Spot prices have been on the rise for most of May buoyed by bullish sentiment in the Chinese market and firm upstream feedstock costs

Margins for PP makers have been lower on average compared with levels in the previous year

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refinery amp Petrochemicals is scheduled to start up its 400000 tonneyear PP production unit in the third quarter The project was initially scheduled to start up in the first quarter of 2018

While domestic demand will continue to outstrip local production the countryrsquos reliance on imports may be diminished when the new plant starts up

Converters in the country have been opting to keep inventories lean in the short term amid expectations that prices may eventually weaken when more domestic supply becomes available

ldquoBuyers donrsquot want to buy too much import cargoes now not just because prices are high but also because there will be more locally-produced materials very soonrdquo a Vietnamese trader said

In Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan is expected to start commercial production at its expanded PP facility in Pasir Gudang in June or July The plantrsquos capacity will be raised by 200000 tonnesyear from 400000 tonnesyear

Import availabilities from South Korea are expected to lengthen in the medium-to-long term with S-Oil expected to complete an olefin downstream complex (ODC) at its Onsan refinery in Ulsan which will include a

405000 tonneyear PP capacity

On the demand front weakness is likely to persist in the second half with converters and end-users likely to continue buying spot cargoes on a hand-to-mouth basis

Indonesiarsquos demand in particular has been below expectations since the start of 2018 and this is likely to continue in the second half of the year according to market players

Back to Quick Navigation | 39Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Some players said import demand for dutiable cargoes may increase in the second half of the year as this is typically when the government issues duty exemption facilities

The duty exemption facilities are issued on a yearly basis which enable converters to import some PP volumes without extra cost

In Malaysia the removal of the 6 goods and services tax (GST) so far has had no immediate impact on the PP market although there are some expectations the move could potentially boost demand in the consumer market further down the road

In Vietnam demand for PP flat yarn has entered a seasonal lull from May to early July and will not pick up until August when the summer harvest begins

PP is widely used in the manufacture of woven sacks (for rice sacks) flexible packaging carpets household appliances and automotive parts

Spot PP prices in southeast Asia have been an uptrend for most of the first half

The PP market begun the year on a bullish note with spot prices surging by almost 10 over the course of two months all-origins PP flat yarn prices peaked at $1295tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia on 2 March

Healthy demand in China helped to provide support to spot prices in southeast Asia in the first quarter with a tight global spot supply leading to further price escalations

Some suppliers pulled back from the southeast Asian spot market to capitalise on better netbacks in other countries including Japan and Pakistan leading to further curtailed spot availability in southeast Asia

The market rally started to lose steam in early March amid subdued demand and a build-up of domestic inventories in China after the Lunar New Year holidays

The bearish sentiment soon spilled over into southeast Asia with Chinese suppliers pushing some volumes into southeast Asia amid an open arbitrage window

Vietnam remains the market of choice for Chinese exporters and PP import prices in the country plummeted as the result of the lengthened spot availability

However the bearish run was short-lived and prices soon bottomed out in early April

Bullish momentum in the upstream crude and naphtha markets propelled spot prices of polymers higher

Despite lacklustre downstream demand price hikes in April and May were commonplace as producers sought higher asking prices in view of narrower margins

TIGHT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT CHINA PP MARKET DESPITE WEAK DEMANDBy Dora Xue

Tight supply would buoy up Chinarsquos polypropylene (PP) prices in the near term despite weak downstream demand

The market is expecting heavy production losses following recent unexpected outages at five domestic facilities from May and scheduled turnarounds at other plants

In the week ended on 1 June domestic prices for PP flat yarn in east China were assessed at Chinese yuan (CNY) 9075tonne after a steady increase from early April according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos import prices for the same material stood at $1245tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China largely tracking movement in the domestic market over the past two months according to ICIS data

The strong PP prices have also started to deter buyers from purchasing more spot cargoes

ldquoPP prices are too high We donrsquot want to store too much in our warehouserdquo a buyer said

Downstream demand typically goes on a lull in June and July but any downward pressure on prices will be negated by a further tightening of supply as major plants will be taken off line for maintenance

ldquoWhen the maintenance season finishes in late June [PP] prices may start to go downrdquo a trader said

Demand is considered weakest at Qingdao in the eastern Shandong province due to government-mandated production cuts and logistics restrictions ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (SCO Summit) on 9-10 June

As of 1 June the combined polyolefin inventories of Chinese petrochemical majors Sinopec and PetroChina have declined back to normal levels of 700000 tonnes from a high of 1m tonnes in early March market sources said

Import supply to China may not improve in the short term as suppliers still deem other

Back to Quick Navigation | 40Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

Back to Quick Navigation | 43Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 33: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

of healthy downstream margins for certain downstream markets such as SM EO and monoethylene glycol (MEG)

Ethylene buyers in China were also keen to book deep-sea cargoes to offset the expected regional production losses from cracker turnarounds

Prices rebounded quickly in mid-May

aided by a bullish SM market and reduced domestic supply

Some MTO operators lowered production in May as high feedstock methanol costs led to squeezed margins while a key producer in east China lowered its cracker run rates unexpectedly

Sharp increases in feedstock naphtha costs

which tracked gains on crude oil futures also helped set a floor to the earlier price declines

By early June spot ethylene prices had touched a 20-week high raising questions on whether the market will see similar price volatility in the second half of 2018

Producers will turn hawkish if the outlook for crude and naphtha markets remains upbeat

Back to Quick Navigation | 30Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

OLEFINSPROPYLENE

TIGHT NE ASIA PROPYLENE SUPPLY TO LIMIT H2 PRICE FLUCTUATIONSBy Joson Ng

Tight propylene (C3) supply in northeast Asia amid a heavy turnaround schedule in 2018 will continue supporting regional prices of the material into the second half

Sellers are likely to continue passing on firmer costs to buyers which are wary of October when heavy propylene production losses are expected

Buyersrsquo resistance in the key China market would keep any further increase in propylene prices in check with some downstream producers considering cutting output due to high feedstock costs

At the start of June propylene prices have weakened ending the strong general uptrend since end-March amid weakness in Chinarsquos domestic market as demand softened due to turnarounds at downstream polypropylene (PP) plants

However the downward pressure on regional prices may be temporary as overall supply in Asia is expected to be tight

In early June spot propylene prices in northeast Asia were about 9 higher from the start of 2018 according to ICIS data

The year started on a bullish note fuelled by a heavier cracker turnaround schedule compared with 2017 and higher premium levels concluded for contract cargoes

The uptrend was sustained into February due to restocking activities in various import markets in northeast Asia before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February

Before the holidays some South Korean producers were convinced the market will experience supply shortage as both GS Caltexrsquos fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity and Yeochun NCCrsquos (YNCC) cracker ndash which can produce 280000 tonnesyear of propylene ndash were due for maintenance in February through to April

But propylene prices surprisingly weakened from 9 February to end-March without demand support from Chinarsquos weak PP market which struggled through sluggish sales and high inventory after the countryrsquos week-long Lunar New Year holiday

A renewed wave of scheduled turnarounds at regional plants tightened supply and drove up propylene prices in April and May

In Taiwan Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) took its residue fluid catalytic

Back to Quick Navigation | 31Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

cracking (RFCC) unit with a 350000 tonneyear propylene capacity off stream from 1 March to mid-April while CPC Corp shut its 100000 tonneyear FCC unit on 10 April and restarted in early June

In South Korea GS Caltex also had a turnaround at its FCC unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity from 19 February to 5 April

SK Advanced shut its propane dehydrogenated (PDH) unit with 600000 tonneyear propylene capacity on 21 April to early May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian propylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 32Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

To talk to someone about price forecast reports call the numbers below or email us at salesukiciscomAsia-Pacific Europe Africa and Middle East The AmericasTel +65 6789 8828 Tel +44 20 8652 3335 Tel +1 713 525 2600 or Toll free +1 888 525 3255 (US and Canada only)

ICIS price forecast reportsSupply demand and price trends at a glance

ICIS price forecast reports provide a clear view of prices and supply and demand trends for the next 12 months Packed with vital information the report includes everything you need to assess where the market is heading and the impact or opportunity that presents for your business

To find out more or take a trial visit wwwiciscompriceforecast

Price Forecast Window

ICIS price forecasts are now available on the Dashboard channel using the Price Forecast Window which will enable users to

n Chart the price forecast against the last (rolling) twelve months of related price history

n Plot the last 12 months to view forecast progression and ICIS forecast accuracy

n Convert data into different currencies and units and download this data into Excel in order to easily enter into your own calculations

How price forecast reports can help youn Understand the marketUse ICIS price forecast reports to understand where the market is heading and identify the risks and the opportunities for your business What are the major demand developments for your product n Safeguard commercial decisionsUse market information to make better-informed business decisions relating to supply and demand Learn about changes in market capacities What factors will affect supply for you n Budgeting and planningWhether you are planning how much you will be spending in the short-to medium or even long term use the price forecast reports to help assess future prices for your product What will the price of your product be in six monthsrsquo time

Price forecast reports currently

available

Available as price forecast windows only

Polypropylene

Polyethylene

Benzene

StyrenePolystyrene

Methanol

Ethylene

Propylene

Styrene

Asia Europe US Global

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

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3

OLEFINSBUTADIENE

ASIA BD TO FLUCTUATE IN H2 AS SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE SHIFTSBy Helen Yan

Asiarsquos butadiene (BD) spot prices for July shipments are likely to face downward pressure but any price downtrend is likely to reverse when cracker turnarounds start to kick in from September onwards

BD prices are expected to be weighed down before seeing support again in the third quarter as the supply and demand balance shifts during this period

The fourth quarter will likely see support for BD prices although the increases may be tempered by resistance from the downstream synthetic rubber (SR) makers to any significant price hikes

The busy cracker turnaround season in September-November will likely see supply tightening at the same time that demand is expected to pick up during this period

Several crackers and BD units including South Korearsquos Lotte Chemical LG Chem and Chinarsquos Shanghai Secco and Maoming Petrochemical are scheduled to shut during

the September to November time frame

In the near term BD spot prices are likely to continue to trend lower as demand wanes while supply at the same time is expected to lengthen due to an influx of deep-sea cargoes and regional cracker restarts

More than 15000 tonnes of deep-sea cargoes from EU are expected to arrive in Asia in June and July at the same time that crackers in Asia including Indiarsquos Haldia Petrochemical and Indonesiarsquos Chandra Asri resume their production following their maintenance shutdowns

On 8 June spot prices fell to $1725tonne CFR (cost amp freight) northeast (NE) Asia the second consecutive week of decline after spiralling upwards in the two months since early April

BD spot prices had increased by more than 40 since early April peaking at $1800tonne CFR NE Asia on 25 May

Strong demand from derivative acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) makers which were running their plants at optimal rates had bolstered the BD price upsurge during this period

However derivative styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) and polybutadiene rubber (PBR) producers the key consumers of BD cut their production output given the continued erosion in margins

Several major SBR and PBR producers said their margins had fallen into negative territory and retreated from the BD spot market in June

Chinese spot appetite in particular tapered off as domestic BD prices were lower compared with the US dollar-denominated import prices

In China Hangzhou Zhechen Jilin Petrochemical Zhejiang Transfar and Shen Hua Chemical were some of the SBR and PBR plants that are shut for maintenance in June and July

Several SBR and PBR plants in Taiwan and South Korea were also running at lower rates following the 40 BD price spike in the two months from early April to end-May

In South Korea major SR producer Korea Kumho Petrochemical PC was running its SBR and PBR plants at reduced rates

Back to Quick Navigation | 33Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian butadiene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 34Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Similarly Taiwanrsquos TSRC also cut the production output of its SBR and PBR plants

The outlook for the fourth quarter is expected to see a different turn of events with SBR and PBR plants resuming their production and ramping up their operating rates while supply during the last quarter is expected to tighten from the heavy cracker turnaround season

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYETHYLENE (PE)

SOUTHEAST ASIA PE MARKET FACES LONGER H2 SUPPLY WEAK DEMANDBy Felita Widjaja

Southeast Asiarsquos polyethylene (PE) market may be facing longer supply in the second half hinging on how the US-China trade spat plays out amid the regionrsquos weakening demand for imports

Global PE trade flows will be affected should China the biggest importer of spot PE cargoes in the world decide to impose retaliatory 25 tariff on US cargoes

Southeast Asia as an alternative buying region might be hard pressed to absorb additional supply from the US where massive PE capacities recently started up which were meant to cater to huge Chinese demand

Around 5m tonnes of additional US PE capacities are expected from several major projects including those in the pipeline to start up within the second half of 2018

China primarily imports PE cargoes from Asia and the Middle East while the US is its sixth leading PE supplier in 2017

ldquoEventually more substantial and regular volume of US [PE] cargoes are expected to be traded in Asia in the second half of the year as we have yet to see them in the first half of this yearrdquo said a regional trader

Any changes in trade flows would pose challenges to US suppliers in the short term as they would need to revamp their logistics and distribution channels to redirect cargoes to other markets

Suppliers from the Middle East meanwhile might take the opportunity to supply more cargoes to China and would mean fewer volumes available to the southeast Asian market

The Middle East is southeast Asiarsquos major PE supplier

Demand for PE imports in southeast Asia has been weak amid lower prices in

Back to Quick Navigation | 35Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

the domestic markets as in the case of Thailand

ldquoThai traders are not keen to import as local prices are more competitive so they do not have the margin to sell the imported cargoes in local market Only some converters who need specific cargoes continue to importrdquo said a local Thai trader

Malaysia and Indonesia with predominantly Muslim populations have seen market activity slow down since mid-May when the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan started Ramadan ends with the Eid ul-Fitr holiday on 15 June

The Indonesian government has declared a longer Eid-ul Fitr holiday this year from 11-20 June

Markets in Singapore and the Philippines will be closed for the mid-June holiday as well

With supply expected to become long some market players expect regional PE prices in July and August to ease from

June with restocking activities expected to kick in towards the end of the third quarter

In the first half of 2018 southeast Asiarsquos average prices for commodity PE were largely stable to firm owing to suppliersrsquo relatively comfortable-to-tight supply for most of the period

At the start of June high density polyethylene (HDPE) film grade prices averaged $1395tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia while linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) film were at $1210tonne CFR SE Asia and $1265tonne CFR SE Asia respectively according to ICIS data

Prices had spiked in the first quarter as suppliers were holding comfortable-to-tight inventory as several regional producers have scheduled turnarounds at their plants in March Production issues and shutdowns in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia also limited availability of imports to southeast Asia during this period

Supply for HDPE film was particularly tight as some producers from the Middle East as well as Asia switched their focus into making HDPE pipe grade amid robust demand and better netbacks

The price uptrend across most PE grades could not be sustained in the second quarter although prices remained relatively stable-to-firm

The depreciation of local currencies in southeast Asia against the US dollar in most of the second quarter was also curbing overall demand for imports A weaker currency makes US dollar-denominated imports expensive

ldquoIndonesian buyers have not been buying much cargoes as the market slowed down during Ramadan and also because of weak rupiah which led the central bank to increase interest rate to limit the depreciationrdquo said a regional producer

CHINA PE IMPORTS TO STAY STRONG AMID DOMESTIC PLANT TURNAROUNDS By Angie Li

Chinarsquos polyethylene (PE) imports are expected to remain strong for the rest of the year after posting record volumes in January to April 2018 amid scheduled turnarounds at domestic facilities

Buyers in China have been accumulating imported PE cargoes as these were priced lower compared futures prices since the start of the year

More cargoes will be available to China as new capacities in the US are expected to boost production

For the month of May the countryrsquos PE imports are projected to reach 12m tonnes higher than the monthly average in the first four months of 2018

In January to April 2018 its PE imports volumes totaled 447m tonnes up by 12 from the previous corresponding period according to industry sources

The import volumes were making up for the production losses in the domestic market due to scheduled turnarounds

On 1 June low density PE (LDPE) imports were assessed at $1155-1180tonne linear low density PE (LLDPE) stood at $1150-1170tonne while high density PE (HDPE) film products were at $1340-1400tonne according to ICIS data

The prices have increased 15-62 from end-March but the gains came in lower than market playersrsquo expectations considering the heavy production loss due to turnarounds from April

Back to Quick Navigation | 36Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

An estimated 500000 tonnes are expected to be shaved in the second quarter due to scheduled maintenance at domestic facilities according ICIS data

ldquoWe thought the hefty plant turnarounds in the second quarter should lead to a surge in PE prices but the LDPE and LLDPE prices were less than satisfactory although HDPE prices [were] highrdquo said an east China-based trader referring to both the import and domestic PE prices

Strong imports amid hedging activities bloated the total supply in China in January to April to 998m tonnes up by 8 from the previous corresponding period with supply of LDPE and LLDPE up by 14 and 8 respectively market sources said

Imports of HDPE inched up by 2 over the same period given the gradersquos comparatively higher prices compared with LLDPE and LDPE

Increased availability due to recent capacity expansions and start-ups in Asia the Middle East also fuels Chinarsquos appetite for import cargoes

In the first quarter of 2018 additional cargoes from Saudi Arabia were mostly from Sadara Chemical which started up its 750000 tonneyear swing plant and 350000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Al Jubail during late 2016 and early 2017 respectively

Cargoes of Iran origin augmented the total volume from the UAE as market players try to go around the financial sanctions on Tehran Kordestan Petrochemicalrsquos 300000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Iran came on stream in March 2017

UAErsquos Borouge has also ramped up pipe and HDPE film exports to China during the period according to a supplier in the Middle East

Meanwhile PE imports from Singapore surged 38 year on year while those from India more than doubled to 127000 tonnes according to China Customs data

The ban on waste plastics implemented in China in the year also bolstered imports of virgin PE Some waste plastics processed overseas and then re-entered the market as virgin products but these volumes were limited

Last year China has imported 194m tonnes of PE waste plastics while

volumes in 2018 will be negligible with the implemention of the ban

Chinarsquos PE production this year is expected to increase by around 7 to about 17m tonnes in 2018 with imports projected to grow by 102 to around 13m tonnes according to a source from state-owned petrochemical giant PetroChina

Domestic demand for PE on the other hand is forecast to grow by 8 this year mainly from the packaging and pipe markets

Chinarsquos ongoing campaign to switch to using gas for power generation instead of coal is expected to continue boosting demand for PE gas pipes this year

The packaging industry will also drive up PE consumption underpinned by growth in electronic commerce Chinarsquos express delivery volumes reached 137bn packages during January-April 2018 based on data from the recent China Express Industry Development Conference in May

Back to Quick Navigation | 37Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 38Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

By Jonathan Lopez

ICIS NewsThe leading news service for real-time ground breaking news and analysis on the global petrochemicals markets

The ICIS News services give you unrivalled access to the most in-depth stories impacting the petrochemicals markets influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions

Our team of global editors are reporting around the clock to bring you the latest news and analysis so that you get the full picture of market and pricing developments first providing you with invaluable foresight to take advantage of every opportunity and to stay ahead of your competitors

With ICIS News you will be the first to read

Breaking news on the chemical markets that will impact your business

News on market moves deals and announcements that will affect your organisation

Force majeures closures and developments that influence your commodity prices

Expert analysis on industry trends and hot topics ndash know whatrsquos happening and why

Searchable archive with over 14 million articles from the past 10 years

Chemical Business News Base (CBNB) is a premium resource available on ICIS News It provides you with an extensive external source of upstream and downstream petrochemical news in summarised snapshots so you can quickly and easily get the latest updates on whatrsquos important to you

CBNB offers readers

Fast and consistent coverage on news facts figures from the upstream and downstream petrochemicals industry

Access to over 700 news sources including technical and trade journals company literature market research reports stockbroker reports books and directories

User-friendly search functionality to find articles most relevant to you from around the globe

Quick and easy-to-read summarised snapshots of articles with option to access full articles from the original source

ICIS Chemical Business digital magazine (ICB) Our global team of experts digests and summarises the key issues and their potential impact on the chemical markets offering a comprehensive overview of the key developments that matter most-along with informed opinion and in-depth analysis

ICB features include

In-depth insight into chemical price changes and their impact on the markets

Understand the detail behind the headline news stories

Find out about supply amp demand trends and the factors impacting them

Get the complete picture of the chemical markets ndash all in one e-magazine

Easy access via e-magazine and premium magazine website

Find out more wwwiciscomnews

ICIS News offers access to additional sources including the ICIS Chemical Business Magazine and Chemical Business News Base (CBNB)

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYPROPYLENE (PP)

SE ASIA PP PRICES MAY COME UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 AS SUPPLY LENGTHENSBy Leanne Tan

Southeast Asiarsquos polypropylene (PP) market may come under pressure in the second half of the year on account of lengthening regional supply and weak downstream demand

Spot prices have been on the rise for most of May buoyed by bullish sentiment in the Chinese market and firm upstream feedstock costs

Margins for PP makers have been lower on average compared with levels in the previous year

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refinery amp Petrochemicals is scheduled to start up its 400000 tonneyear PP production unit in the third quarter The project was initially scheduled to start up in the first quarter of 2018

While domestic demand will continue to outstrip local production the countryrsquos reliance on imports may be diminished when the new plant starts up

Converters in the country have been opting to keep inventories lean in the short term amid expectations that prices may eventually weaken when more domestic supply becomes available

ldquoBuyers donrsquot want to buy too much import cargoes now not just because prices are high but also because there will be more locally-produced materials very soonrdquo a Vietnamese trader said

In Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan is expected to start commercial production at its expanded PP facility in Pasir Gudang in June or July The plantrsquos capacity will be raised by 200000 tonnesyear from 400000 tonnesyear

Import availabilities from South Korea are expected to lengthen in the medium-to-long term with S-Oil expected to complete an olefin downstream complex (ODC) at its Onsan refinery in Ulsan which will include a

405000 tonneyear PP capacity

On the demand front weakness is likely to persist in the second half with converters and end-users likely to continue buying spot cargoes on a hand-to-mouth basis

Indonesiarsquos demand in particular has been below expectations since the start of 2018 and this is likely to continue in the second half of the year according to market players

Back to Quick Navigation | 39Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Some players said import demand for dutiable cargoes may increase in the second half of the year as this is typically when the government issues duty exemption facilities

The duty exemption facilities are issued on a yearly basis which enable converters to import some PP volumes without extra cost

In Malaysia the removal of the 6 goods and services tax (GST) so far has had no immediate impact on the PP market although there are some expectations the move could potentially boost demand in the consumer market further down the road

In Vietnam demand for PP flat yarn has entered a seasonal lull from May to early July and will not pick up until August when the summer harvest begins

PP is widely used in the manufacture of woven sacks (for rice sacks) flexible packaging carpets household appliances and automotive parts

Spot PP prices in southeast Asia have been an uptrend for most of the first half

The PP market begun the year on a bullish note with spot prices surging by almost 10 over the course of two months all-origins PP flat yarn prices peaked at $1295tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia on 2 March

Healthy demand in China helped to provide support to spot prices in southeast Asia in the first quarter with a tight global spot supply leading to further price escalations

Some suppliers pulled back from the southeast Asian spot market to capitalise on better netbacks in other countries including Japan and Pakistan leading to further curtailed spot availability in southeast Asia

The market rally started to lose steam in early March amid subdued demand and a build-up of domestic inventories in China after the Lunar New Year holidays

The bearish sentiment soon spilled over into southeast Asia with Chinese suppliers pushing some volumes into southeast Asia amid an open arbitrage window

Vietnam remains the market of choice for Chinese exporters and PP import prices in the country plummeted as the result of the lengthened spot availability

However the bearish run was short-lived and prices soon bottomed out in early April

Bullish momentum in the upstream crude and naphtha markets propelled spot prices of polymers higher

Despite lacklustre downstream demand price hikes in April and May were commonplace as producers sought higher asking prices in view of narrower margins

TIGHT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT CHINA PP MARKET DESPITE WEAK DEMANDBy Dora Xue

Tight supply would buoy up Chinarsquos polypropylene (PP) prices in the near term despite weak downstream demand

The market is expecting heavy production losses following recent unexpected outages at five domestic facilities from May and scheduled turnarounds at other plants

In the week ended on 1 June domestic prices for PP flat yarn in east China were assessed at Chinese yuan (CNY) 9075tonne after a steady increase from early April according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos import prices for the same material stood at $1245tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China largely tracking movement in the domestic market over the past two months according to ICIS data

The strong PP prices have also started to deter buyers from purchasing more spot cargoes

ldquoPP prices are too high We donrsquot want to store too much in our warehouserdquo a buyer said

Downstream demand typically goes on a lull in June and July but any downward pressure on prices will be negated by a further tightening of supply as major plants will be taken off line for maintenance

ldquoWhen the maintenance season finishes in late June [PP] prices may start to go downrdquo a trader said

Demand is considered weakest at Qingdao in the eastern Shandong province due to government-mandated production cuts and logistics restrictions ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (SCO Summit) on 9-10 June

As of 1 June the combined polyolefin inventories of Chinese petrochemical majors Sinopec and PetroChina have declined back to normal levels of 700000 tonnes from a high of 1m tonnes in early March market sources said

Import supply to China may not improve in the short term as suppliers still deem other

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markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

Back to Quick Navigation | 43Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 34: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

OLEFINSPROPYLENE

TIGHT NE ASIA PROPYLENE SUPPLY TO LIMIT H2 PRICE FLUCTUATIONSBy Joson Ng

Tight propylene (C3) supply in northeast Asia amid a heavy turnaround schedule in 2018 will continue supporting regional prices of the material into the second half

Sellers are likely to continue passing on firmer costs to buyers which are wary of October when heavy propylene production losses are expected

Buyersrsquo resistance in the key China market would keep any further increase in propylene prices in check with some downstream producers considering cutting output due to high feedstock costs

At the start of June propylene prices have weakened ending the strong general uptrend since end-March amid weakness in Chinarsquos domestic market as demand softened due to turnarounds at downstream polypropylene (PP) plants

However the downward pressure on regional prices may be temporary as overall supply in Asia is expected to be tight

In early June spot propylene prices in northeast Asia were about 9 higher from the start of 2018 according to ICIS data

The year started on a bullish note fuelled by a heavier cracker turnaround schedule compared with 2017 and higher premium levels concluded for contract cargoes

The uptrend was sustained into February due to restocking activities in various import markets in northeast Asia before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February

Before the holidays some South Korean producers were convinced the market will experience supply shortage as both GS Caltexrsquos fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity and Yeochun NCCrsquos (YNCC) cracker ndash which can produce 280000 tonnesyear of propylene ndash were due for maintenance in February through to April

But propylene prices surprisingly weakened from 9 February to end-March without demand support from Chinarsquos weak PP market which struggled through sluggish sales and high inventory after the countryrsquos week-long Lunar New Year holiday

A renewed wave of scheduled turnarounds at regional plants tightened supply and drove up propylene prices in April and May

In Taiwan Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) took its residue fluid catalytic

Back to Quick Navigation | 31Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

cracking (RFCC) unit with a 350000 tonneyear propylene capacity off stream from 1 March to mid-April while CPC Corp shut its 100000 tonneyear FCC unit on 10 April and restarted in early June

In South Korea GS Caltex also had a turnaround at its FCC unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity from 19 February to 5 April

SK Advanced shut its propane dehydrogenated (PDH) unit with 600000 tonneyear propylene capacity on 21 April to early May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian propylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 32Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

To talk to someone about price forecast reports call the numbers below or email us at salesukiciscomAsia-Pacific Europe Africa and Middle East The AmericasTel +65 6789 8828 Tel +44 20 8652 3335 Tel +1 713 525 2600 or Toll free +1 888 525 3255 (US and Canada only)

ICIS price forecast reportsSupply demand and price trends at a glance

ICIS price forecast reports provide a clear view of prices and supply and demand trends for the next 12 months Packed with vital information the report includes everything you need to assess where the market is heading and the impact or opportunity that presents for your business

To find out more or take a trial visit wwwiciscompriceforecast

Price Forecast Window

ICIS price forecasts are now available on the Dashboard channel using the Price Forecast Window which will enable users to

n Chart the price forecast against the last (rolling) twelve months of related price history

n Plot the last 12 months to view forecast progression and ICIS forecast accuracy

n Convert data into different currencies and units and download this data into Excel in order to easily enter into your own calculations

How price forecast reports can help youn Understand the marketUse ICIS price forecast reports to understand where the market is heading and identify the risks and the opportunities for your business What are the major demand developments for your product n Safeguard commercial decisionsUse market information to make better-informed business decisions relating to supply and demand Learn about changes in market capacities What factors will affect supply for you n Budgeting and planningWhether you are planning how much you will be spending in the short-to medium or even long term use the price forecast reports to help assess future prices for your product What will the price of your product be in six monthsrsquo time

Price forecast reports currently

available

Available as price forecast windows only

Polypropylene

Polyethylene

Benzene

StyrenePolystyrene

Methanol

Ethylene

Propylene

Styrene

Asia Europe US Global

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

OLEFINSBUTADIENE

ASIA BD TO FLUCTUATE IN H2 AS SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE SHIFTSBy Helen Yan

Asiarsquos butadiene (BD) spot prices for July shipments are likely to face downward pressure but any price downtrend is likely to reverse when cracker turnarounds start to kick in from September onwards

BD prices are expected to be weighed down before seeing support again in the third quarter as the supply and demand balance shifts during this period

The fourth quarter will likely see support for BD prices although the increases may be tempered by resistance from the downstream synthetic rubber (SR) makers to any significant price hikes

The busy cracker turnaround season in September-November will likely see supply tightening at the same time that demand is expected to pick up during this period

Several crackers and BD units including South Korearsquos Lotte Chemical LG Chem and Chinarsquos Shanghai Secco and Maoming Petrochemical are scheduled to shut during

the September to November time frame

In the near term BD spot prices are likely to continue to trend lower as demand wanes while supply at the same time is expected to lengthen due to an influx of deep-sea cargoes and regional cracker restarts

More than 15000 tonnes of deep-sea cargoes from EU are expected to arrive in Asia in June and July at the same time that crackers in Asia including Indiarsquos Haldia Petrochemical and Indonesiarsquos Chandra Asri resume their production following their maintenance shutdowns

On 8 June spot prices fell to $1725tonne CFR (cost amp freight) northeast (NE) Asia the second consecutive week of decline after spiralling upwards in the two months since early April

BD spot prices had increased by more than 40 since early April peaking at $1800tonne CFR NE Asia on 25 May

Strong demand from derivative acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) makers which were running their plants at optimal rates had bolstered the BD price upsurge during this period

However derivative styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) and polybutadiene rubber (PBR) producers the key consumers of BD cut their production output given the continued erosion in margins

Several major SBR and PBR producers said their margins had fallen into negative territory and retreated from the BD spot market in June

Chinese spot appetite in particular tapered off as domestic BD prices were lower compared with the US dollar-denominated import prices

In China Hangzhou Zhechen Jilin Petrochemical Zhejiang Transfar and Shen Hua Chemical were some of the SBR and PBR plants that are shut for maintenance in June and July

Several SBR and PBR plants in Taiwan and South Korea were also running at lower rates following the 40 BD price spike in the two months from early April to end-May

In South Korea major SR producer Korea Kumho Petrochemical PC was running its SBR and PBR plants at reduced rates

Back to Quick Navigation | 33Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian butadiene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 34Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Similarly Taiwanrsquos TSRC also cut the production output of its SBR and PBR plants

The outlook for the fourth quarter is expected to see a different turn of events with SBR and PBR plants resuming their production and ramping up their operating rates while supply during the last quarter is expected to tighten from the heavy cracker turnaround season

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYETHYLENE (PE)

SOUTHEAST ASIA PE MARKET FACES LONGER H2 SUPPLY WEAK DEMANDBy Felita Widjaja

Southeast Asiarsquos polyethylene (PE) market may be facing longer supply in the second half hinging on how the US-China trade spat plays out amid the regionrsquos weakening demand for imports

Global PE trade flows will be affected should China the biggest importer of spot PE cargoes in the world decide to impose retaliatory 25 tariff on US cargoes

Southeast Asia as an alternative buying region might be hard pressed to absorb additional supply from the US where massive PE capacities recently started up which were meant to cater to huge Chinese demand

Around 5m tonnes of additional US PE capacities are expected from several major projects including those in the pipeline to start up within the second half of 2018

China primarily imports PE cargoes from Asia and the Middle East while the US is its sixth leading PE supplier in 2017

ldquoEventually more substantial and regular volume of US [PE] cargoes are expected to be traded in Asia in the second half of the year as we have yet to see them in the first half of this yearrdquo said a regional trader

Any changes in trade flows would pose challenges to US suppliers in the short term as they would need to revamp their logistics and distribution channels to redirect cargoes to other markets

Suppliers from the Middle East meanwhile might take the opportunity to supply more cargoes to China and would mean fewer volumes available to the southeast Asian market

The Middle East is southeast Asiarsquos major PE supplier

Demand for PE imports in southeast Asia has been weak amid lower prices in

Back to Quick Navigation | 35Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

the domestic markets as in the case of Thailand

ldquoThai traders are not keen to import as local prices are more competitive so they do not have the margin to sell the imported cargoes in local market Only some converters who need specific cargoes continue to importrdquo said a local Thai trader

Malaysia and Indonesia with predominantly Muslim populations have seen market activity slow down since mid-May when the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan started Ramadan ends with the Eid ul-Fitr holiday on 15 June

The Indonesian government has declared a longer Eid-ul Fitr holiday this year from 11-20 June

Markets in Singapore and the Philippines will be closed for the mid-June holiday as well

With supply expected to become long some market players expect regional PE prices in July and August to ease from

June with restocking activities expected to kick in towards the end of the third quarter

In the first half of 2018 southeast Asiarsquos average prices for commodity PE were largely stable to firm owing to suppliersrsquo relatively comfortable-to-tight supply for most of the period

At the start of June high density polyethylene (HDPE) film grade prices averaged $1395tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia while linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) film were at $1210tonne CFR SE Asia and $1265tonne CFR SE Asia respectively according to ICIS data

Prices had spiked in the first quarter as suppliers were holding comfortable-to-tight inventory as several regional producers have scheduled turnarounds at their plants in March Production issues and shutdowns in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia also limited availability of imports to southeast Asia during this period

Supply for HDPE film was particularly tight as some producers from the Middle East as well as Asia switched their focus into making HDPE pipe grade amid robust demand and better netbacks

The price uptrend across most PE grades could not be sustained in the second quarter although prices remained relatively stable-to-firm

The depreciation of local currencies in southeast Asia against the US dollar in most of the second quarter was also curbing overall demand for imports A weaker currency makes US dollar-denominated imports expensive

ldquoIndonesian buyers have not been buying much cargoes as the market slowed down during Ramadan and also because of weak rupiah which led the central bank to increase interest rate to limit the depreciationrdquo said a regional producer

CHINA PE IMPORTS TO STAY STRONG AMID DOMESTIC PLANT TURNAROUNDS By Angie Li

Chinarsquos polyethylene (PE) imports are expected to remain strong for the rest of the year after posting record volumes in January to April 2018 amid scheduled turnarounds at domestic facilities

Buyers in China have been accumulating imported PE cargoes as these were priced lower compared futures prices since the start of the year

More cargoes will be available to China as new capacities in the US are expected to boost production

For the month of May the countryrsquos PE imports are projected to reach 12m tonnes higher than the monthly average in the first four months of 2018

In January to April 2018 its PE imports volumes totaled 447m tonnes up by 12 from the previous corresponding period according to industry sources

The import volumes were making up for the production losses in the domestic market due to scheduled turnarounds

On 1 June low density PE (LDPE) imports were assessed at $1155-1180tonne linear low density PE (LLDPE) stood at $1150-1170tonne while high density PE (HDPE) film products were at $1340-1400tonne according to ICIS data

The prices have increased 15-62 from end-March but the gains came in lower than market playersrsquo expectations considering the heavy production loss due to turnarounds from April

Back to Quick Navigation | 36Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

An estimated 500000 tonnes are expected to be shaved in the second quarter due to scheduled maintenance at domestic facilities according ICIS data

ldquoWe thought the hefty plant turnarounds in the second quarter should lead to a surge in PE prices but the LDPE and LLDPE prices were less than satisfactory although HDPE prices [were] highrdquo said an east China-based trader referring to both the import and domestic PE prices

Strong imports amid hedging activities bloated the total supply in China in January to April to 998m tonnes up by 8 from the previous corresponding period with supply of LDPE and LLDPE up by 14 and 8 respectively market sources said

Imports of HDPE inched up by 2 over the same period given the gradersquos comparatively higher prices compared with LLDPE and LDPE

Increased availability due to recent capacity expansions and start-ups in Asia the Middle East also fuels Chinarsquos appetite for import cargoes

In the first quarter of 2018 additional cargoes from Saudi Arabia were mostly from Sadara Chemical which started up its 750000 tonneyear swing plant and 350000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Al Jubail during late 2016 and early 2017 respectively

Cargoes of Iran origin augmented the total volume from the UAE as market players try to go around the financial sanctions on Tehran Kordestan Petrochemicalrsquos 300000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Iran came on stream in March 2017

UAErsquos Borouge has also ramped up pipe and HDPE film exports to China during the period according to a supplier in the Middle East

Meanwhile PE imports from Singapore surged 38 year on year while those from India more than doubled to 127000 tonnes according to China Customs data

The ban on waste plastics implemented in China in the year also bolstered imports of virgin PE Some waste plastics processed overseas and then re-entered the market as virgin products but these volumes were limited

Last year China has imported 194m tonnes of PE waste plastics while

volumes in 2018 will be negligible with the implemention of the ban

Chinarsquos PE production this year is expected to increase by around 7 to about 17m tonnes in 2018 with imports projected to grow by 102 to around 13m tonnes according to a source from state-owned petrochemical giant PetroChina

Domestic demand for PE on the other hand is forecast to grow by 8 this year mainly from the packaging and pipe markets

Chinarsquos ongoing campaign to switch to using gas for power generation instead of coal is expected to continue boosting demand for PE gas pipes this year

The packaging industry will also drive up PE consumption underpinned by growth in electronic commerce Chinarsquos express delivery volumes reached 137bn packages during January-April 2018 based on data from the recent China Express Industry Development Conference in May

Back to Quick Navigation | 37Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 38Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

By Jonathan Lopez

ICIS NewsThe leading news service for real-time ground breaking news and analysis on the global petrochemicals markets

The ICIS News services give you unrivalled access to the most in-depth stories impacting the petrochemicals markets influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions

Our team of global editors are reporting around the clock to bring you the latest news and analysis so that you get the full picture of market and pricing developments first providing you with invaluable foresight to take advantage of every opportunity and to stay ahead of your competitors

With ICIS News you will be the first to read

Breaking news on the chemical markets that will impact your business

News on market moves deals and announcements that will affect your organisation

Force majeures closures and developments that influence your commodity prices

Expert analysis on industry trends and hot topics ndash know whatrsquos happening and why

Searchable archive with over 14 million articles from the past 10 years

Chemical Business News Base (CBNB) is a premium resource available on ICIS News It provides you with an extensive external source of upstream and downstream petrochemical news in summarised snapshots so you can quickly and easily get the latest updates on whatrsquos important to you

CBNB offers readers

Fast and consistent coverage on news facts figures from the upstream and downstream petrochemicals industry

Access to over 700 news sources including technical and trade journals company literature market research reports stockbroker reports books and directories

User-friendly search functionality to find articles most relevant to you from around the globe

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ICB features include

In-depth insight into chemical price changes and their impact on the markets

Understand the detail behind the headline news stories

Find out about supply amp demand trends and the factors impacting them

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Easy access via e-magazine and premium magazine website

Find out more wwwiciscomnews

ICIS News offers access to additional sources including the ICIS Chemical Business Magazine and Chemical Business News Base (CBNB)

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYPROPYLENE (PP)

SE ASIA PP PRICES MAY COME UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 AS SUPPLY LENGTHENSBy Leanne Tan

Southeast Asiarsquos polypropylene (PP) market may come under pressure in the second half of the year on account of lengthening regional supply and weak downstream demand

Spot prices have been on the rise for most of May buoyed by bullish sentiment in the Chinese market and firm upstream feedstock costs

Margins for PP makers have been lower on average compared with levels in the previous year

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refinery amp Petrochemicals is scheduled to start up its 400000 tonneyear PP production unit in the third quarter The project was initially scheduled to start up in the first quarter of 2018

While domestic demand will continue to outstrip local production the countryrsquos reliance on imports may be diminished when the new plant starts up

Converters in the country have been opting to keep inventories lean in the short term amid expectations that prices may eventually weaken when more domestic supply becomes available

ldquoBuyers donrsquot want to buy too much import cargoes now not just because prices are high but also because there will be more locally-produced materials very soonrdquo a Vietnamese trader said

In Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan is expected to start commercial production at its expanded PP facility in Pasir Gudang in June or July The plantrsquos capacity will be raised by 200000 tonnesyear from 400000 tonnesyear

Import availabilities from South Korea are expected to lengthen in the medium-to-long term with S-Oil expected to complete an olefin downstream complex (ODC) at its Onsan refinery in Ulsan which will include a

405000 tonneyear PP capacity

On the demand front weakness is likely to persist in the second half with converters and end-users likely to continue buying spot cargoes on a hand-to-mouth basis

Indonesiarsquos demand in particular has been below expectations since the start of 2018 and this is likely to continue in the second half of the year according to market players

Back to Quick Navigation | 39Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Some players said import demand for dutiable cargoes may increase in the second half of the year as this is typically when the government issues duty exemption facilities

The duty exemption facilities are issued on a yearly basis which enable converters to import some PP volumes without extra cost

In Malaysia the removal of the 6 goods and services tax (GST) so far has had no immediate impact on the PP market although there are some expectations the move could potentially boost demand in the consumer market further down the road

In Vietnam demand for PP flat yarn has entered a seasonal lull from May to early July and will not pick up until August when the summer harvest begins

PP is widely used in the manufacture of woven sacks (for rice sacks) flexible packaging carpets household appliances and automotive parts

Spot PP prices in southeast Asia have been an uptrend for most of the first half

The PP market begun the year on a bullish note with spot prices surging by almost 10 over the course of two months all-origins PP flat yarn prices peaked at $1295tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia on 2 March

Healthy demand in China helped to provide support to spot prices in southeast Asia in the first quarter with a tight global spot supply leading to further price escalations

Some suppliers pulled back from the southeast Asian spot market to capitalise on better netbacks in other countries including Japan and Pakistan leading to further curtailed spot availability in southeast Asia

The market rally started to lose steam in early March amid subdued demand and a build-up of domestic inventories in China after the Lunar New Year holidays

The bearish sentiment soon spilled over into southeast Asia with Chinese suppliers pushing some volumes into southeast Asia amid an open arbitrage window

Vietnam remains the market of choice for Chinese exporters and PP import prices in the country plummeted as the result of the lengthened spot availability

However the bearish run was short-lived and prices soon bottomed out in early April

Bullish momentum in the upstream crude and naphtha markets propelled spot prices of polymers higher

Despite lacklustre downstream demand price hikes in April and May were commonplace as producers sought higher asking prices in view of narrower margins

TIGHT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT CHINA PP MARKET DESPITE WEAK DEMANDBy Dora Xue

Tight supply would buoy up Chinarsquos polypropylene (PP) prices in the near term despite weak downstream demand

The market is expecting heavy production losses following recent unexpected outages at five domestic facilities from May and scheduled turnarounds at other plants

In the week ended on 1 June domestic prices for PP flat yarn in east China were assessed at Chinese yuan (CNY) 9075tonne after a steady increase from early April according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos import prices for the same material stood at $1245tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China largely tracking movement in the domestic market over the past two months according to ICIS data

The strong PP prices have also started to deter buyers from purchasing more spot cargoes

ldquoPP prices are too high We donrsquot want to store too much in our warehouserdquo a buyer said

Downstream demand typically goes on a lull in June and July but any downward pressure on prices will be negated by a further tightening of supply as major plants will be taken off line for maintenance

ldquoWhen the maintenance season finishes in late June [PP] prices may start to go downrdquo a trader said

Demand is considered weakest at Qingdao in the eastern Shandong province due to government-mandated production cuts and logistics restrictions ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (SCO Summit) on 9-10 June

As of 1 June the combined polyolefin inventories of Chinese petrochemical majors Sinopec and PetroChina have declined back to normal levels of 700000 tonnes from a high of 1m tonnes in early March market sources said

Import supply to China may not improve in the short term as suppliers still deem other

Back to Quick Navigation | 40Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

Back to Quick Navigation | 43Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 35: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

cracking (RFCC) unit with a 350000 tonneyear propylene capacity off stream from 1 March to mid-April while CPC Corp shut its 100000 tonneyear FCC unit on 10 April and restarted in early June

In South Korea GS Caltex also had a turnaround at its FCC unit with a 250000 tonneyear propylene capacity from 19 February to 5 April

SK Advanced shut its propane dehydrogenated (PDH) unit with 600000 tonneyear propylene capacity on 21 April to early May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian propylene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 32Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

To talk to someone about price forecast reports call the numbers below or email us at salesukiciscomAsia-Pacific Europe Africa and Middle East The AmericasTel +65 6789 8828 Tel +44 20 8652 3335 Tel +1 713 525 2600 or Toll free +1 888 525 3255 (US and Canada only)

ICIS price forecast reportsSupply demand and price trends at a glance

ICIS price forecast reports provide a clear view of prices and supply and demand trends for the next 12 months Packed with vital information the report includes everything you need to assess where the market is heading and the impact or opportunity that presents for your business

To find out more or take a trial visit wwwiciscompriceforecast

Price Forecast Window

ICIS price forecasts are now available on the Dashboard channel using the Price Forecast Window which will enable users to

n Chart the price forecast against the last (rolling) twelve months of related price history

n Plot the last 12 months to view forecast progression and ICIS forecast accuracy

n Convert data into different currencies and units and download this data into Excel in order to easily enter into your own calculations

How price forecast reports can help youn Understand the marketUse ICIS price forecast reports to understand where the market is heading and identify the risks and the opportunities for your business What are the major demand developments for your product n Safeguard commercial decisionsUse market information to make better-informed business decisions relating to supply and demand Learn about changes in market capacities What factors will affect supply for you n Budgeting and planningWhether you are planning how much you will be spending in the short-to medium or even long term use the price forecast reports to help assess future prices for your product What will the price of your product be in six monthsrsquo time

Price forecast reports currently

available

Available as price forecast windows only

Polypropylene

Polyethylene

Benzene

StyrenePolystyrene

Methanol

Ethylene

Propylene

Styrene

Asia Europe US Global

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

OLEFINSBUTADIENE

ASIA BD TO FLUCTUATE IN H2 AS SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE SHIFTSBy Helen Yan

Asiarsquos butadiene (BD) spot prices for July shipments are likely to face downward pressure but any price downtrend is likely to reverse when cracker turnarounds start to kick in from September onwards

BD prices are expected to be weighed down before seeing support again in the third quarter as the supply and demand balance shifts during this period

The fourth quarter will likely see support for BD prices although the increases may be tempered by resistance from the downstream synthetic rubber (SR) makers to any significant price hikes

The busy cracker turnaround season in September-November will likely see supply tightening at the same time that demand is expected to pick up during this period

Several crackers and BD units including South Korearsquos Lotte Chemical LG Chem and Chinarsquos Shanghai Secco and Maoming Petrochemical are scheduled to shut during

the September to November time frame

In the near term BD spot prices are likely to continue to trend lower as demand wanes while supply at the same time is expected to lengthen due to an influx of deep-sea cargoes and regional cracker restarts

More than 15000 tonnes of deep-sea cargoes from EU are expected to arrive in Asia in June and July at the same time that crackers in Asia including Indiarsquos Haldia Petrochemical and Indonesiarsquos Chandra Asri resume their production following their maintenance shutdowns

On 8 June spot prices fell to $1725tonne CFR (cost amp freight) northeast (NE) Asia the second consecutive week of decline after spiralling upwards in the two months since early April

BD spot prices had increased by more than 40 since early April peaking at $1800tonne CFR NE Asia on 25 May

Strong demand from derivative acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) makers which were running their plants at optimal rates had bolstered the BD price upsurge during this period

However derivative styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) and polybutadiene rubber (PBR) producers the key consumers of BD cut their production output given the continued erosion in margins

Several major SBR and PBR producers said their margins had fallen into negative territory and retreated from the BD spot market in June

Chinese spot appetite in particular tapered off as domestic BD prices were lower compared with the US dollar-denominated import prices

In China Hangzhou Zhechen Jilin Petrochemical Zhejiang Transfar and Shen Hua Chemical were some of the SBR and PBR plants that are shut for maintenance in June and July

Several SBR and PBR plants in Taiwan and South Korea were also running at lower rates following the 40 BD price spike in the two months from early April to end-May

In South Korea major SR producer Korea Kumho Petrochemical PC was running its SBR and PBR plants at reduced rates

Back to Quick Navigation | 33Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian butadiene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 34Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Similarly Taiwanrsquos TSRC also cut the production output of its SBR and PBR plants

The outlook for the fourth quarter is expected to see a different turn of events with SBR and PBR plants resuming their production and ramping up their operating rates while supply during the last quarter is expected to tighten from the heavy cracker turnaround season

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYETHYLENE (PE)

SOUTHEAST ASIA PE MARKET FACES LONGER H2 SUPPLY WEAK DEMANDBy Felita Widjaja

Southeast Asiarsquos polyethylene (PE) market may be facing longer supply in the second half hinging on how the US-China trade spat plays out amid the regionrsquos weakening demand for imports

Global PE trade flows will be affected should China the biggest importer of spot PE cargoes in the world decide to impose retaliatory 25 tariff on US cargoes

Southeast Asia as an alternative buying region might be hard pressed to absorb additional supply from the US where massive PE capacities recently started up which were meant to cater to huge Chinese demand

Around 5m tonnes of additional US PE capacities are expected from several major projects including those in the pipeline to start up within the second half of 2018

China primarily imports PE cargoes from Asia and the Middle East while the US is its sixth leading PE supplier in 2017

ldquoEventually more substantial and regular volume of US [PE] cargoes are expected to be traded in Asia in the second half of the year as we have yet to see them in the first half of this yearrdquo said a regional trader

Any changes in trade flows would pose challenges to US suppliers in the short term as they would need to revamp their logistics and distribution channels to redirect cargoes to other markets

Suppliers from the Middle East meanwhile might take the opportunity to supply more cargoes to China and would mean fewer volumes available to the southeast Asian market

The Middle East is southeast Asiarsquos major PE supplier

Demand for PE imports in southeast Asia has been weak amid lower prices in

Back to Quick Navigation | 35Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

the domestic markets as in the case of Thailand

ldquoThai traders are not keen to import as local prices are more competitive so they do not have the margin to sell the imported cargoes in local market Only some converters who need specific cargoes continue to importrdquo said a local Thai trader

Malaysia and Indonesia with predominantly Muslim populations have seen market activity slow down since mid-May when the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan started Ramadan ends with the Eid ul-Fitr holiday on 15 June

The Indonesian government has declared a longer Eid-ul Fitr holiday this year from 11-20 June

Markets in Singapore and the Philippines will be closed for the mid-June holiday as well

With supply expected to become long some market players expect regional PE prices in July and August to ease from

June with restocking activities expected to kick in towards the end of the third quarter

In the first half of 2018 southeast Asiarsquos average prices for commodity PE were largely stable to firm owing to suppliersrsquo relatively comfortable-to-tight supply for most of the period

At the start of June high density polyethylene (HDPE) film grade prices averaged $1395tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia while linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) film were at $1210tonne CFR SE Asia and $1265tonne CFR SE Asia respectively according to ICIS data

Prices had spiked in the first quarter as suppliers were holding comfortable-to-tight inventory as several regional producers have scheduled turnarounds at their plants in March Production issues and shutdowns in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia also limited availability of imports to southeast Asia during this period

Supply for HDPE film was particularly tight as some producers from the Middle East as well as Asia switched their focus into making HDPE pipe grade amid robust demand and better netbacks

The price uptrend across most PE grades could not be sustained in the second quarter although prices remained relatively stable-to-firm

The depreciation of local currencies in southeast Asia against the US dollar in most of the second quarter was also curbing overall demand for imports A weaker currency makes US dollar-denominated imports expensive

ldquoIndonesian buyers have not been buying much cargoes as the market slowed down during Ramadan and also because of weak rupiah which led the central bank to increase interest rate to limit the depreciationrdquo said a regional producer

CHINA PE IMPORTS TO STAY STRONG AMID DOMESTIC PLANT TURNAROUNDS By Angie Li

Chinarsquos polyethylene (PE) imports are expected to remain strong for the rest of the year after posting record volumes in January to April 2018 amid scheduled turnarounds at domestic facilities

Buyers in China have been accumulating imported PE cargoes as these were priced lower compared futures prices since the start of the year

More cargoes will be available to China as new capacities in the US are expected to boost production

For the month of May the countryrsquos PE imports are projected to reach 12m tonnes higher than the monthly average in the first four months of 2018

In January to April 2018 its PE imports volumes totaled 447m tonnes up by 12 from the previous corresponding period according to industry sources

The import volumes were making up for the production losses in the domestic market due to scheduled turnarounds

On 1 June low density PE (LDPE) imports were assessed at $1155-1180tonne linear low density PE (LLDPE) stood at $1150-1170tonne while high density PE (HDPE) film products were at $1340-1400tonne according to ICIS data

The prices have increased 15-62 from end-March but the gains came in lower than market playersrsquo expectations considering the heavy production loss due to turnarounds from April

Back to Quick Navigation | 36Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

An estimated 500000 tonnes are expected to be shaved in the second quarter due to scheduled maintenance at domestic facilities according ICIS data

ldquoWe thought the hefty plant turnarounds in the second quarter should lead to a surge in PE prices but the LDPE and LLDPE prices were less than satisfactory although HDPE prices [were] highrdquo said an east China-based trader referring to both the import and domestic PE prices

Strong imports amid hedging activities bloated the total supply in China in January to April to 998m tonnes up by 8 from the previous corresponding period with supply of LDPE and LLDPE up by 14 and 8 respectively market sources said

Imports of HDPE inched up by 2 over the same period given the gradersquos comparatively higher prices compared with LLDPE and LDPE

Increased availability due to recent capacity expansions and start-ups in Asia the Middle East also fuels Chinarsquos appetite for import cargoes

In the first quarter of 2018 additional cargoes from Saudi Arabia were mostly from Sadara Chemical which started up its 750000 tonneyear swing plant and 350000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Al Jubail during late 2016 and early 2017 respectively

Cargoes of Iran origin augmented the total volume from the UAE as market players try to go around the financial sanctions on Tehran Kordestan Petrochemicalrsquos 300000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Iran came on stream in March 2017

UAErsquos Borouge has also ramped up pipe and HDPE film exports to China during the period according to a supplier in the Middle East

Meanwhile PE imports from Singapore surged 38 year on year while those from India more than doubled to 127000 tonnes according to China Customs data

The ban on waste plastics implemented in China in the year also bolstered imports of virgin PE Some waste plastics processed overseas and then re-entered the market as virgin products but these volumes were limited

Last year China has imported 194m tonnes of PE waste plastics while

volumes in 2018 will be negligible with the implemention of the ban

Chinarsquos PE production this year is expected to increase by around 7 to about 17m tonnes in 2018 with imports projected to grow by 102 to around 13m tonnes according to a source from state-owned petrochemical giant PetroChina

Domestic demand for PE on the other hand is forecast to grow by 8 this year mainly from the packaging and pipe markets

Chinarsquos ongoing campaign to switch to using gas for power generation instead of coal is expected to continue boosting demand for PE gas pipes this year

The packaging industry will also drive up PE consumption underpinned by growth in electronic commerce Chinarsquos express delivery volumes reached 137bn packages during January-April 2018 based on data from the recent China Express Industry Development Conference in May

Back to Quick Navigation | 37Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 38Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

By Jonathan Lopez

ICIS NewsThe leading news service for real-time ground breaking news and analysis on the global petrochemicals markets

The ICIS News services give you unrivalled access to the most in-depth stories impacting the petrochemicals markets influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions

Our team of global editors are reporting around the clock to bring you the latest news and analysis so that you get the full picture of market and pricing developments first providing you with invaluable foresight to take advantage of every opportunity and to stay ahead of your competitors

With ICIS News you will be the first to read

Breaking news on the chemical markets that will impact your business

News on market moves deals and announcements that will affect your organisation

Force majeures closures and developments that influence your commodity prices

Expert analysis on industry trends and hot topics ndash know whatrsquos happening and why

Searchable archive with over 14 million articles from the past 10 years

Chemical Business News Base (CBNB) is a premium resource available on ICIS News It provides you with an extensive external source of upstream and downstream petrochemical news in summarised snapshots so you can quickly and easily get the latest updates on whatrsquos important to you

CBNB offers readers

Fast and consistent coverage on news facts figures from the upstream and downstream petrochemicals industry

Access to over 700 news sources including technical and trade journals company literature market research reports stockbroker reports books and directories

User-friendly search functionality to find articles most relevant to you from around the globe

Quick and easy-to-read summarised snapshots of articles with option to access full articles from the original source

ICIS Chemical Business digital magazine (ICB) Our global team of experts digests and summarises the key issues and their potential impact on the chemical markets offering a comprehensive overview of the key developments that matter most-along with informed opinion and in-depth analysis

ICB features include

In-depth insight into chemical price changes and their impact on the markets

Understand the detail behind the headline news stories

Find out about supply amp demand trends and the factors impacting them

Get the complete picture of the chemical markets ndash all in one e-magazine

Easy access via e-magazine and premium magazine website

Find out more wwwiciscomnews

ICIS News offers access to additional sources including the ICIS Chemical Business Magazine and Chemical Business News Base (CBNB)

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYPROPYLENE (PP)

SE ASIA PP PRICES MAY COME UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 AS SUPPLY LENGTHENSBy Leanne Tan

Southeast Asiarsquos polypropylene (PP) market may come under pressure in the second half of the year on account of lengthening regional supply and weak downstream demand

Spot prices have been on the rise for most of May buoyed by bullish sentiment in the Chinese market and firm upstream feedstock costs

Margins for PP makers have been lower on average compared with levels in the previous year

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refinery amp Petrochemicals is scheduled to start up its 400000 tonneyear PP production unit in the third quarter The project was initially scheduled to start up in the first quarter of 2018

While domestic demand will continue to outstrip local production the countryrsquos reliance on imports may be diminished when the new plant starts up

Converters in the country have been opting to keep inventories lean in the short term amid expectations that prices may eventually weaken when more domestic supply becomes available

ldquoBuyers donrsquot want to buy too much import cargoes now not just because prices are high but also because there will be more locally-produced materials very soonrdquo a Vietnamese trader said

In Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan is expected to start commercial production at its expanded PP facility in Pasir Gudang in June or July The plantrsquos capacity will be raised by 200000 tonnesyear from 400000 tonnesyear

Import availabilities from South Korea are expected to lengthen in the medium-to-long term with S-Oil expected to complete an olefin downstream complex (ODC) at its Onsan refinery in Ulsan which will include a

405000 tonneyear PP capacity

On the demand front weakness is likely to persist in the second half with converters and end-users likely to continue buying spot cargoes on a hand-to-mouth basis

Indonesiarsquos demand in particular has been below expectations since the start of 2018 and this is likely to continue in the second half of the year according to market players

Back to Quick Navigation | 39Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Some players said import demand for dutiable cargoes may increase in the second half of the year as this is typically when the government issues duty exemption facilities

The duty exemption facilities are issued on a yearly basis which enable converters to import some PP volumes without extra cost

In Malaysia the removal of the 6 goods and services tax (GST) so far has had no immediate impact on the PP market although there are some expectations the move could potentially boost demand in the consumer market further down the road

In Vietnam demand for PP flat yarn has entered a seasonal lull from May to early July and will not pick up until August when the summer harvest begins

PP is widely used in the manufacture of woven sacks (for rice sacks) flexible packaging carpets household appliances and automotive parts

Spot PP prices in southeast Asia have been an uptrend for most of the first half

The PP market begun the year on a bullish note with spot prices surging by almost 10 over the course of two months all-origins PP flat yarn prices peaked at $1295tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia on 2 March

Healthy demand in China helped to provide support to spot prices in southeast Asia in the first quarter with a tight global spot supply leading to further price escalations

Some suppliers pulled back from the southeast Asian spot market to capitalise on better netbacks in other countries including Japan and Pakistan leading to further curtailed spot availability in southeast Asia

The market rally started to lose steam in early March amid subdued demand and a build-up of domestic inventories in China after the Lunar New Year holidays

The bearish sentiment soon spilled over into southeast Asia with Chinese suppliers pushing some volumes into southeast Asia amid an open arbitrage window

Vietnam remains the market of choice for Chinese exporters and PP import prices in the country plummeted as the result of the lengthened spot availability

However the bearish run was short-lived and prices soon bottomed out in early April

Bullish momentum in the upstream crude and naphtha markets propelled spot prices of polymers higher

Despite lacklustre downstream demand price hikes in April and May were commonplace as producers sought higher asking prices in view of narrower margins

TIGHT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT CHINA PP MARKET DESPITE WEAK DEMANDBy Dora Xue

Tight supply would buoy up Chinarsquos polypropylene (PP) prices in the near term despite weak downstream demand

The market is expecting heavy production losses following recent unexpected outages at five domestic facilities from May and scheduled turnarounds at other plants

In the week ended on 1 June domestic prices for PP flat yarn in east China were assessed at Chinese yuan (CNY) 9075tonne after a steady increase from early April according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos import prices for the same material stood at $1245tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China largely tracking movement in the domestic market over the past two months according to ICIS data

The strong PP prices have also started to deter buyers from purchasing more spot cargoes

ldquoPP prices are too high We donrsquot want to store too much in our warehouserdquo a buyer said

Downstream demand typically goes on a lull in June and July but any downward pressure on prices will be negated by a further tightening of supply as major plants will be taken off line for maintenance

ldquoWhen the maintenance season finishes in late June [PP] prices may start to go downrdquo a trader said

Demand is considered weakest at Qingdao in the eastern Shandong province due to government-mandated production cuts and logistics restrictions ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (SCO Summit) on 9-10 June

As of 1 June the combined polyolefin inventories of Chinese petrochemical majors Sinopec and PetroChina have declined back to normal levels of 700000 tonnes from a high of 1m tonnes in early March market sources said

Import supply to China may not improve in the short term as suppliers still deem other

Back to Quick Navigation | 40Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

Back to Quick Navigation | 43Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 36: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

To talk to someone about price forecast reports call the numbers below or email us at salesukiciscomAsia-Pacific Europe Africa and Middle East The AmericasTel +65 6789 8828 Tel +44 20 8652 3335 Tel +1 713 525 2600 or Toll free +1 888 525 3255 (US and Canada only)

ICIS price forecast reportsSupply demand and price trends at a glance

ICIS price forecast reports provide a clear view of prices and supply and demand trends for the next 12 months Packed with vital information the report includes everything you need to assess where the market is heading and the impact or opportunity that presents for your business

To find out more or take a trial visit wwwiciscompriceforecast

Price Forecast Window

ICIS price forecasts are now available on the Dashboard channel using the Price Forecast Window which will enable users to

n Chart the price forecast against the last (rolling) twelve months of related price history

n Plot the last 12 months to view forecast progression and ICIS forecast accuracy

n Convert data into different currencies and units and download this data into Excel in order to easily enter into your own calculations

How price forecast reports can help youn Understand the marketUse ICIS price forecast reports to understand where the market is heading and identify the risks and the opportunities for your business What are the major demand developments for your product n Safeguard commercial decisionsUse market information to make better-informed business decisions relating to supply and demand Learn about changes in market capacities What factors will affect supply for you n Budgeting and planningWhether you are planning how much you will be spending in the short-to medium or even long term use the price forecast reports to help assess future prices for your product What will the price of your product be in six monthsrsquo time

Price forecast reports currently

available

Available as price forecast windows only

Polypropylene

Polyethylene

Benzene

StyrenePolystyrene

Methanol

Ethylene

Propylene

Styrene

Asia Europe US Global

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3

3

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OLEFINSBUTADIENE

ASIA BD TO FLUCTUATE IN H2 AS SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE SHIFTSBy Helen Yan

Asiarsquos butadiene (BD) spot prices for July shipments are likely to face downward pressure but any price downtrend is likely to reverse when cracker turnarounds start to kick in from September onwards

BD prices are expected to be weighed down before seeing support again in the third quarter as the supply and demand balance shifts during this period

The fourth quarter will likely see support for BD prices although the increases may be tempered by resistance from the downstream synthetic rubber (SR) makers to any significant price hikes

The busy cracker turnaround season in September-November will likely see supply tightening at the same time that demand is expected to pick up during this period

Several crackers and BD units including South Korearsquos Lotte Chemical LG Chem and Chinarsquos Shanghai Secco and Maoming Petrochemical are scheduled to shut during

the September to November time frame

In the near term BD spot prices are likely to continue to trend lower as demand wanes while supply at the same time is expected to lengthen due to an influx of deep-sea cargoes and regional cracker restarts

More than 15000 tonnes of deep-sea cargoes from EU are expected to arrive in Asia in June and July at the same time that crackers in Asia including Indiarsquos Haldia Petrochemical and Indonesiarsquos Chandra Asri resume their production following their maintenance shutdowns

On 8 June spot prices fell to $1725tonne CFR (cost amp freight) northeast (NE) Asia the second consecutive week of decline after spiralling upwards in the two months since early April

BD spot prices had increased by more than 40 since early April peaking at $1800tonne CFR NE Asia on 25 May

Strong demand from derivative acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) makers which were running their plants at optimal rates had bolstered the BD price upsurge during this period

However derivative styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) and polybutadiene rubber (PBR) producers the key consumers of BD cut their production output given the continued erosion in margins

Several major SBR and PBR producers said their margins had fallen into negative territory and retreated from the BD spot market in June

Chinese spot appetite in particular tapered off as domestic BD prices were lower compared with the US dollar-denominated import prices

In China Hangzhou Zhechen Jilin Petrochemical Zhejiang Transfar and Shen Hua Chemical were some of the SBR and PBR plants that are shut for maintenance in June and July

Several SBR and PBR plants in Taiwan and South Korea were also running at lower rates following the 40 BD price spike in the two months from early April to end-May

In South Korea major SR producer Korea Kumho Petrochemical PC was running its SBR and PBR plants at reduced rates

Back to Quick Navigation | 33Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian butadiene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 34Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Similarly Taiwanrsquos TSRC also cut the production output of its SBR and PBR plants

The outlook for the fourth quarter is expected to see a different turn of events with SBR and PBR plants resuming their production and ramping up their operating rates while supply during the last quarter is expected to tighten from the heavy cracker turnaround season

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYETHYLENE (PE)

SOUTHEAST ASIA PE MARKET FACES LONGER H2 SUPPLY WEAK DEMANDBy Felita Widjaja

Southeast Asiarsquos polyethylene (PE) market may be facing longer supply in the second half hinging on how the US-China trade spat plays out amid the regionrsquos weakening demand for imports

Global PE trade flows will be affected should China the biggest importer of spot PE cargoes in the world decide to impose retaliatory 25 tariff on US cargoes

Southeast Asia as an alternative buying region might be hard pressed to absorb additional supply from the US where massive PE capacities recently started up which were meant to cater to huge Chinese demand

Around 5m tonnes of additional US PE capacities are expected from several major projects including those in the pipeline to start up within the second half of 2018

China primarily imports PE cargoes from Asia and the Middle East while the US is its sixth leading PE supplier in 2017

ldquoEventually more substantial and regular volume of US [PE] cargoes are expected to be traded in Asia in the second half of the year as we have yet to see them in the first half of this yearrdquo said a regional trader

Any changes in trade flows would pose challenges to US suppliers in the short term as they would need to revamp their logistics and distribution channels to redirect cargoes to other markets

Suppliers from the Middle East meanwhile might take the opportunity to supply more cargoes to China and would mean fewer volumes available to the southeast Asian market

The Middle East is southeast Asiarsquos major PE supplier

Demand for PE imports in southeast Asia has been weak amid lower prices in

Back to Quick Navigation | 35Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

the domestic markets as in the case of Thailand

ldquoThai traders are not keen to import as local prices are more competitive so they do not have the margin to sell the imported cargoes in local market Only some converters who need specific cargoes continue to importrdquo said a local Thai trader

Malaysia and Indonesia with predominantly Muslim populations have seen market activity slow down since mid-May when the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan started Ramadan ends with the Eid ul-Fitr holiday on 15 June

The Indonesian government has declared a longer Eid-ul Fitr holiday this year from 11-20 June

Markets in Singapore and the Philippines will be closed for the mid-June holiday as well

With supply expected to become long some market players expect regional PE prices in July and August to ease from

June with restocking activities expected to kick in towards the end of the third quarter

In the first half of 2018 southeast Asiarsquos average prices for commodity PE were largely stable to firm owing to suppliersrsquo relatively comfortable-to-tight supply for most of the period

At the start of June high density polyethylene (HDPE) film grade prices averaged $1395tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia while linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) film were at $1210tonne CFR SE Asia and $1265tonne CFR SE Asia respectively according to ICIS data

Prices had spiked in the first quarter as suppliers were holding comfortable-to-tight inventory as several regional producers have scheduled turnarounds at their plants in March Production issues and shutdowns in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia also limited availability of imports to southeast Asia during this period

Supply for HDPE film was particularly tight as some producers from the Middle East as well as Asia switched their focus into making HDPE pipe grade amid robust demand and better netbacks

The price uptrend across most PE grades could not be sustained in the second quarter although prices remained relatively stable-to-firm

The depreciation of local currencies in southeast Asia against the US dollar in most of the second quarter was also curbing overall demand for imports A weaker currency makes US dollar-denominated imports expensive

ldquoIndonesian buyers have not been buying much cargoes as the market slowed down during Ramadan and also because of weak rupiah which led the central bank to increase interest rate to limit the depreciationrdquo said a regional producer

CHINA PE IMPORTS TO STAY STRONG AMID DOMESTIC PLANT TURNAROUNDS By Angie Li

Chinarsquos polyethylene (PE) imports are expected to remain strong for the rest of the year after posting record volumes in January to April 2018 amid scheduled turnarounds at domestic facilities

Buyers in China have been accumulating imported PE cargoes as these were priced lower compared futures prices since the start of the year

More cargoes will be available to China as new capacities in the US are expected to boost production

For the month of May the countryrsquos PE imports are projected to reach 12m tonnes higher than the monthly average in the first four months of 2018

In January to April 2018 its PE imports volumes totaled 447m tonnes up by 12 from the previous corresponding period according to industry sources

The import volumes were making up for the production losses in the domestic market due to scheduled turnarounds

On 1 June low density PE (LDPE) imports were assessed at $1155-1180tonne linear low density PE (LLDPE) stood at $1150-1170tonne while high density PE (HDPE) film products were at $1340-1400tonne according to ICIS data

The prices have increased 15-62 from end-March but the gains came in lower than market playersrsquo expectations considering the heavy production loss due to turnarounds from April

Back to Quick Navigation | 36Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

An estimated 500000 tonnes are expected to be shaved in the second quarter due to scheduled maintenance at domestic facilities according ICIS data

ldquoWe thought the hefty plant turnarounds in the second quarter should lead to a surge in PE prices but the LDPE and LLDPE prices were less than satisfactory although HDPE prices [were] highrdquo said an east China-based trader referring to both the import and domestic PE prices

Strong imports amid hedging activities bloated the total supply in China in January to April to 998m tonnes up by 8 from the previous corresponding period with supply of LDPE and LLDPE up by 14 and 8 respectively market sources said

Imports of HDPE inched up by 2 over the same period given the gradersquos comparatively higher prices compared with LLDPE and LDPE

Increased availability due to recent capacity expansions and start-ups in Asia the Middle East also fuels Chinarsquos appetite for import cargoes

In the first quarter of 2018 additional cargoes from Saudi Arabia were mostly from Sadara Chemical which started up its 750000 tonneyear swing plant and 350000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Al Jubail during late 2016 and early 2017 respectively

Cargoes of Iran origin augmented the total volume from the UAE as market players try to go around the financial sanctions on Tehran Kordestan Petrochemicalrsquos 300000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Iran came on stream in March 2017

UAErsquos Borouge has also ramped up pipe and HDPE film exports to China during the period according to a supplier in the Middle East

Meanwhile PE imports from Singapore surged 38 year on year while those from India more than doubled to 127000 tonnes according to China Customs data

The ban on waste plastics implemented in China in the year also bolstered imports of virgin PE Some waste plastics processed overseas and then re-entered the market as virgin products but these volumes were limited

Last year China has imported 194m tonnes of PE waste plastics while

volumes in 2018 will be negligible with the implemention of the ban

Chinarsquos PE production this year is expected to increase by around 7 to about 17m tonnes in 2018 with imports projected to grow by 102 to around 13m tonnes according to a source from state-owned petrochemical giant PetroChina

Domestic demand for PE on the other hand is forecast to grow by 8 this year mainly from the packaging and pipe markets

Chinarsquos ongoing campaign to switch to using gas for power generation instead of coal is expected to continue boosting demand for PE gas pipes this year

The packaging industry will also drive up PE consumption underpinned by growth in electronic commerce Chinarsquos express delivery volumes reached 137bn packages during January-April 2018 based on data from the recent China Express Industry Development Conference in May

Back to Quick Navigation | 37Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 38Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

By Jonathan Lopez

ICIS NewsThe leading news service for real-time ground breaking news and analysis on the global petrochemicals markets

The ICIS News services give you unrivalled access to the most in-depth stories impacting the petrochemicals markets influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions

Our team of global editors are reporting around the clock to bring you the latest news and analysis so that you get the full picture of market and pricing developments first providing you with invaluable foresight to take advantage of every opportunity and to stay ahead of your competitors

With ICIS News you will be the first to read

Breaking news on the chemical markets that will impact your business

News on market moves deals and announcements that will affect your organisation

Force majeures closures and developments that influence your commodity prices

Expert analysis on industry trends and hot topics ndash know whatrsquos happening and why

Searchable archive with over 14 million articles from the past 10 years

Chemical Business News Base (CBNB) is a premium resource available on ICIS News It provides you with an extensive external source of upstream and downstream petrochemical news in summarised snapshots so you can quickly and easily get the latest updates on whatrsquos important to you

CBNB offers readers

Fast and consistent coverage on news facts figures from the upstream and downstream petrochemicals industry

Access to over 700 news sources including technical and trade journals company literature market research reports stockbroker reports books and directories

User-friendly search functionality to find articles most relevant to you from around the globe

Quick and easy-to-read summarised snapshots of articles with option to access full articles from the original source

ICIS Chemical Business digital magazine (ICB) Our global team of experts digests and summarises the key issues and their potential impact on the chemical markets offering a comprehensive overview of the key developments that matter most-along with informed opinion and in-depth analysis

ICB features include

In-depth insight into chemical price changes and their impact on the markets

Understand the detail behind the headline news stories

Find out about supply amp demand trends and the factors impacting them

Get the complete picture of the chemical markets ndash all in one e-magazine

Easy access via e-magazine and premium magazine website

Find out more wwwiciscomnews

ICIS News offers access to additional sources including the ICIS Chemical Business Magazine and Chemical Business News Base (CBNB)

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYPROPYLENE (PP)

SE ASIA PP PRICES MAY COME UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 AS SUPPLY LENGTHENSBy Leanne Tan

Southeast Asiarsquos polypropylene (PP) market may come under pressure in the second half of the year on account of lengthening regional supply and weak downstream demand

Spot prices have been on the rise for most of May buoyed by bullish sentiment in the Chinese market and firm upstream feedstock costs

Margins for PP makers have been lower on average compared with levels in the previous year

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refinery amp Petrochemicals is scheduled to start up its 400000 tonneyear PP production unit in the third quarter The project was initially scheduled to start up in the first quarter of 2018

While domestic demand will continue to outstrip local production the countryrsquos reliance on imports may be diminished when the new plant starts up

Converters in the country have been opting to keep inventories lean in the short term amid expectations that prices may eventually weaken when more domestic supply becomes available

ldquoBuyers donrsquot want to buy too much import cargoes now not just because prices are high but also because there will be more locally-produced materials very soonrdquo a Vietnamese trader said

In Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan is expected to start commercial production at its expanded PP facility in Pasir Gudang in June or July The plantrsquos capacity will be raised by 200000 tonnesyear from 400000 tonnesyear

Import availabilities from South Korea are expected to lengthen in the medium-to-long term with S-Oil expected to complete an olefin downstream complex (ODC) at its Onsan refinery in Ulsan which will include a

405000 tonneyear PP capacity

On the demand front weakness is likely to persist in the second half with converters and end-users likely to continue buying spot cargoes on a hand-to-mouth basis

Indonesiarsquos demand in particular has been below expectations since the start of 2018 and this is likely to continue in the second half of the year according to market players

Back to Quick Navigation | 39Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Some players said import demand for dutiable cargoes may increase in the second half of the year as this is typically when the government issues duty exemption facilities

The duty exemption facilities are issued on a yearly basis which enable converters to import some PP volumes without extra cost

In Malaysia the removal of the 6 goods and services tax (GST) so far has had no immediate impact on the PP market although there are some expectations the move could potentially boost demand in the consumer market further down the road

In Vietnam demand for PP flat yarn has entered a seasonal lull from May to early July and will not pick up until August when the summer harvest begins

PP is widely used in the manufacture of woven sacks (for rice sacks) flexible packaging carpets household appliances and automotive parts

Spot PP prices in southeast Asia have been an uptrend for most of the first half

The PP market begun the year on a bullish note with spot prices surging by almost 10 over the course of two months all-origins PP flat yarn prices peaked at $1295tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia on 2 March

Healthy demand in China helped to provide support to spot prices in southeast Asia in the first quarter with a tight global spot supply leading to further price escalations

Some suppliers pulled back from the southeast Asian spot market to capitalise on better netbacks in other countries including Japan and Pakistan leading to further curtailed spot availability in southeast Asia

The market rally started to lose steam in early March amid subdued demand and a build-up of domestic inventories in China after the Lunar New Year holidays

The bearish sentiment soon spilled over into southeast Asia with Chinese suppliers pushing some volumes into southeast Asia amid an open arbitrage window

Vietnam remains the market of choice for Chinese exporters and PP import prices in the country plummeted as the result of the lengthened spot availability

However the bearish run was short-lived and prices soon bottomed out in early April

Bullish momentum in the upstream crude and naphtha markets propelled spot prices of polymers higher

Despite lacklustre downstream demand price hikes in April and May were commonplace as producers sought higher asking prices in view of narrower margins

TIGHT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT CHINA PP MARKET DESPITE WEAK DEMANDBy Dora Xue

Tight supply would buoy up Chinarsquos polypropylene (PP) prices in the near term despite weak downstream demand

The market is expecting heavy production losses following recent unexpected outages at five domestic facilities from May and scheduled turnarounds at other plants

In the week ended on 1 June domestic prices for PP flat yarn in east China were assessed at Chinese yuan (CNY) 9075tonne after a steady increase from early April according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos import prices for the same material stood at $1245tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China largely tracking movement in the domestic market over the past two months according to ICIS data

The strong PP prices have also started to deter buyers from purchasing more spot cargoes

ldquoPP prices are too high We donrsquot want to store too much in our warehouserdquo a buyer said

Downstream demand typically goes on a lull in June and July but any downward pressure on prices will be negated by a further tightening of supply as major plants will be taken off line for maintenance

ldquoWhen the maintenance season finishes in late June [PP] prices may start to go downrdquo a trader said

Demand is considered weakest at Qingdao in the eastern Shandong province due to government-mandated production cuts and logistics restrictions ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (SCO Summit) on 9-10 June

As of 1 June the combined polyolefin inventories of Chinese petrochemical majors Sinopec and PetroChina have declined back to normal levels of 700000 tonnes from a high of 1m tonnes in early March market sources said

Import supply to China may not improve in the short term as suppliers still deem other

Back to Quick Navigation | 40Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

Back to Quick Navigation | 43Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 37: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

OLEFINSBUTADIENE

ASIA BD TO FLUCTUATE IN H2 AS SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE SHIFTSBy Helen Yan

Asiarsquos butadiene (BD) spot prices for July shipments are likely to face downward pressure but any price downtrend is likely to reverse when cracker turnarounds start to kick in from September onwards

BD prices are expected to be weighed down before seeing support again in the third quarter as the supply and demand balance shifts during this period

The fourth quarter will likely see support for BD prices although the increases may be tempered by resistance from the downstream synthetic rubber (SR) makers to any significant price hikes

The busy cracker turnaround season in September-November will likely see supply tightening at the same time that demand is expected to pick up during this period

Several crackers and BD units including South Korearsquos Lotte Chemical LG Chem and Chinarsquos Shanghai Secco and Maoming Petrochemical are scheduled to shut during

the September to November time frame

In the near term BD spot prices are likely to continue to trend lower as demand wanes while supply at the same time is expected to lengthen due to an influx of deep-sea cargoes and regional cracker restarts

More than 15000 tonnes of deep-sea cargoes from EU are expected to arrive in Asia in June and July at the same time that crackers in Asia including Indiarsquos Haldia Petrochemical and Indonesiarsquos Chandra Asri resume their production following their maintenance shutdowns

On 8 June spot prices fell to $1725tonne CFR (cost amp freight) northeast (NE) Asia the second consecutive week of decline after spiralling upwards in the two months since early April

BD spot prices had increased by more than 40 since early April peaking at $1800tonne CFR NE Asia on 25 May

Strong demand from derivative acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) makers which were running their plants at optimal rates had bolstered the BD price upsurge during this period

However derivative styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) and polybutadiene rubber (PBR) producers the key consumers of BD cut their production output given the continued erosion in margins

Several major SBR and PBR producers said their margins had fallen into negative territory and retreated from the BD spot market in June

Chinese spot appetite in particular tapered off as domestic BD prices were lower compared with the US dollar-denominated import prices

In China Hangzhou Zhechen Jilin Petrochemical Zhejiang Transfar and Shen Hua Chemical were some of the SBR and PBR plants that are shut for maintenance in June and July

Several SBR and PBR plants in Taiwan and South Korea were also running at lower rates following the 40 BD price spike in the two months from early April to end-May

In South Korea major SR producer Korea Kumho Petrochemical PC was running its SBR and PBR plants at reduced rates

Back to Quick Navigation | 33Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian butadiene markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 34Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Similarly Taiwanrsquos TSRC also cut the production output of its SBR and PBR plants

The outlook for the fourth quarter is expected to see a different turn of events with SBR and PBR plants resuming their production and ramping up their operating rates while supply during the last quarter is expected to tighten from the heavy cracker turnaround season

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYETHYLENE (PE)

SOUTHEAST ASIA PE MARKET FACES LONGER H2 SUPPLY WEAK DEMANDBy Felita Widjaja

Southeast Asiarsquos polyethylene (PE) market may be facing longer supply in the second half hinging on how the US-China trade spat plays out amid the regionrsquos weakening demand for imports

Global PE trade flows will be affected should China the biggest importer of spot PE cargoes in the world decide to impose retaliatory 25 tariff on US cargoes

Southeast Asia as an alternative buying region might be hard pressed to absorb additional supply from the US where massive PE capacities recently started up which were meant to cater to huge Chinese demand

Around 5m tonnes of additional US PE capacities are expected from several major projects including those in the pipeline to start up within the second half of 2018

China primarily imports PE cargoes from Asia and the Middle East while the US is its sixth leading PE supplier in 2017

ldquoEventually more substantial and regular volume of US [PE] cargoes are expected to be traded in Asia in the second half of the year as we have yet to see them in the first half of this yearrdquo said a regional trader

Any changes in trade flows would pose challenges to US suppliers in the short term as they would need to revamp their logistics and distribution channels to redirect cargoes to other markets

Suppliers from the Middle East meanwhile might take the opportunity to supply more cargoes to China and would mean fewer volumes available to the southeast Asian market

The Middle East is southeast Asiarsquos major PE supplier

Demand for PE imports in southeast Asia has been weak amid lower prices in

Back to Quick Navigation | 35Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

the domestic markets as in the case of Thailand

ldquoThai traders are not keen to import as local prices are more competitive so they do not have the margin to sell the imported cargoes in local market Only some converters who need specific cargoes continue to importrdquo said a local Thai trader

Malaysia and Indonesia with predominantly Muslim populations have seen market activity slow down since mid-May when the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan started Ramadan ends with the Eid ul-Fitr holiday on 15 June

The Indonesian government has declared a longer Eid-ul Fitr holiday this year from 11-20 June

Markets in Singapore and the Philippines will be closed for the mid-June holiday as well

With supply expected to become long some market players expect regional PE prices in July and August to ease from

June with restocking activities expected to kick in towards the end of the third quarter

In the first half of 2018 southeast Asiarsquos average prices for commodity PE were largely stable to firm owing to suppliersrsquo relatively comfortable-to-tight supply for most of the period

At the start of June high density polyethylene (HDPE) film grade prices averaged $1395tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia while linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) film were at $1210tonne CFR SE Asia and $1265tonne CFR SE Asia respectively according to ICIS data

Prices had spiked in the first quarter as suppliers were holding comfortable-to-tight inventory as several regional producers have scheduled turnarounds at their plants in March Production issues and shutdowns in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia also limited availability of imports to southeast Asia during this period

Supply for HDPE film was particularly tight as some producers from the Middle East as well as Asia switched their focus into making HDPE pipe grade amid robust demand and better netbacks

The price uptrend across most PE grades could not be sustained in the second quarter although prices remained relatively stable-to-firm

The depreciation of local currencies in southeast Asia against the US dollar in most of the second quarter was also curbing overall demand for imports A weaker currency makes US dollar-denominated imports expensive

ldquoIndonesian buyers have not been buying much cargoes as the market slowed down during Ramadan and also because of weak rupiah which led the central bank to increase interest rate to limit the depreciationrdquo said a regional producer

CHINA PE IMPORTS TO STAY STRONG AMID DOMESTIC PLANT TURNAROUNDS By Angie Li

Chinarsquos polyethylene (PE) imports are expected to remain strong for the rest of the year after posting record volumes in January to April 2018 amid scheduled turnarounds at domestic facilities

Buyers in China have been accumulating imported PE cargoes as these were priced lower compared futures prices since the start of the year

More cargoes will be available to China as new capacities in the US are expected to boost production

For the month of May the countryrsquos PE imports are projected to reach 12m tonnes higher than the monthly average in the first four months of 2018

In January to April 2018 its PE imports volumes totaled 447m tonnes up by 12 from the previous corresponding period according to industry sources

The import volumes were making up for the production losses in the domestic market due to scheduled turnarounds

On 1 June low density PE (LDPE) imports were assessed at $1155-1180tonne linear low density PE (LLDPE) stood at $1150-1170tonne while high density PE (HDPE) film products were at $1340-1400tonne according to ICIS data

The prices have increased 15-62 from end-March but the gains came in lower than market playersrsquo expectations considering the heavy production loss due to turnarounds from April

Back to Quick Navigation | 36Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

An estimated 500000 tonnes are expected to be shaved in the second quarter due to scheduled maintenance at domestic facilities according ICIS data

ldquoWe thought the hefty plant turnarounds in the second quarter should lead to a surge in PE prices but the LDPE and LLDPE prices were less than satisfactory although HDPE prices [were] highrdquo said an east China-based trader referring to both the import and domestic PE prices

Strong imports amid hedging activities bloated the total supply in China in January to April to 998m tonnes up by 8 from the previous corresponding period with supply of LDPE and LLDPE up by 14 and 8 respectively market sources said

Imports of HDPE inched up by 2 over the same period given the gradersquos comparatively higher prices compared with LLDPE and LDPE

Increased availability due to recent capacity expansions and start-ups in Asia the Middle East also fuels Chinarsquos appetite for import cargoes

In the first quarter of 2018 additional cargoes from Saudi Arabia were mostly from Sadara Chemical which started up its 750000 tonneyear swing plant and 350000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Al Jubail during late 2016 and early 2017 respectively

Cargoes of Iran origin augmented the total volume from the UAE as market players try to go around the financial sanctions on Tehran Kordestan Petrochemicalrsquos 300000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Iran came on stream in March 2017

UAErsquos Borouge has also ramped up pipe and HDPE film exports to China during the period according to a supplier in the Middle East

Meanwhile PE imports from Singapore surged 38 year on year while those from India more than doubled to 127000 tonnes according to China Customs data

The ban on waste plastics implemented in China in the year also bolstered imports of virgin PE Some waste plastics processed overseas and then re-entered the market as virgin products but these volumes were limited

Last year China has imported 194m tonnes of PE waste plastics while

volumes in 2018 will be negligible with the implemention of the ban

Chinarsquos PE production this year is expected to increase by around 7 to about 17m tonnes in 2018 with imports projected to grow by 102 to around 13m tonnes according to a source from state-owned petrochemical giant PetroChina

Domestic demand for PE on the other hand is forecast to grow by 8 this year mainly from the packaging and pipe markets

Chinarsquos ongoing campaign to switch to using gas for power generation instead of coal is expected to continue boosting demand for PE gas pipes this year

The packaging industry will also drive up PE consumption underpinned by growth in electronic commerce Chinarsquos express delivery volumes reached 137bn packages during January-April 2018 based on data from the recent China Express Industry Development Conference in May

Back to Quick Navigation | 37Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 38Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

By Jonathan Lopez

ICIS NewsThe leading news service for real-time ground breaking news and analysis on the global petrochemicals markets

The ICIS News services give you unrivalled access to the most in-depth stories impacting the petrochemicals markets influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions

Our team of global editors are reporting around the clock to bring you the latest news and analysis so that you get the full picture of market and pricing developments first providing you with invaluable foresight to take advantage of every opportunity and to stay ahead of your competitors

With ICIS News you will be the first to read

Breaking news on the chemical markets that will impact your business

News on market moves deals and announcements that will affect your organisation

Force majeures closures and developments that influence your commodity prices

Expert analysis on industry trends and hot topics ndash know whatrsquos happening and why

Searchable archive with over 14 million articles from the past 10 years

Chemical Business News Base (CBNB) is a premium resource available on ICIS News It provides you with an extensive external source of upstream and downstream petrochemical news in summarised snapshots so you can quickly and easily get the latest updates on whatrsquos important to you

CBNB offers readers

Fast and consistent coverage on news facts figures from the upstream and downstream petrochemicals industry

Access to over 700 news sources including technical and trade journals company literature market research reports stockbroker reports books and directories

User-friendly search functionality to find articles most relevant to you from around the globe

Quick and easy-to-read summarised snapshots of articles with option to access full articles from the original source

ICIS Chemical Business digital magazine (ICB) Our global team of experts digests and summarises the key issues and their potential impact on the chemical markets offering a comprehensive overview of the key developments that matter most-along with informed opinion and in-depth analysis

ICB features include

In-depth insight into chemical price changes and their impact on the markets

Understand the detail behind the headline news stories

Find out about supply amp demand trends and the factors impacting them

Get the complete picture of the chemical markets ndash all in one e-magazine

Easy access via e-magazine and premium magazine website

Find out more wwwiciscomnews

ICIS News offers access to additional sources including the ICIS Chemical Business Magazine and Chemical Business News Base (CBNB)

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYPROPYLENE (PP)

SE ASIA PP PRICES MAY COME UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 AS SUPPLY LENGTHENSBy Leanne Tan

Southeast Asiarsquos polypropylene (PP) market may come under pressure in the second half of the year on account of lengthening regional supply and weak downstream demand

Spot prices have been on the rise for most of May buoyed by bullish sentiment in the Chinese market and firm upstream feedstock costs

Margins for PP makers have been lower on average compared with levels in the previous year

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refinery amp Petrochemicals is scheduled to start up its 400000 tonneyear PP production unit in the third quarter The project was initially scheduled to start up in the first quarter of 2018

While domestic demand will continue to outstrip local production the countryrsquos reliance on imports may be diminished when the new plant starts up

Converters in the country have been opting to keep inventories lean in the short term amid expectations that prices may eventually weaken when more domestic supply becomes available

ldquoBuyers donrsquot want to buy too much import cargoes now not just because prices are high but also because there will be more locally-produced materials very soonrdquo a Vietnamese trader said

In Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan is expected to start commercial production at its expanded PP facility in Pasir Gudang in June or July The plantrsquos capacity will be raised by 200000 tonnesyear from 400000 tonnesyear

Import availabilities from South Korea are expected to lengthen in the medium-to-long term with S-Oil expected to complete an olefin downstream complex (ODC) at its Onsan refinery in Ulsan which will include a

405000 tonneyear PP capacity

On the demand front weakness is likely to persist in the second half with converters and end-users likely to continue buying spot cargoes on a hand-to-mouth basis

Indonesiarsquos demand in particular has been below expectations since the start of 2018 and this is likely to continue in the second half of the year according to market players

Back to Quick Navigation | 39Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Some players said import demand for dutiable cargoes may increase in the second half of the year as this is typically when the government issues duty exemption facilities

The duty exemption facilities are issued on a yearly basis which enable converters to import some PP volumes without extra cost

In Malaysia the removal of the 6 goods and services tax (GST) so far has had no immediate impact on the PP market although there are some expectations the move could potentially boost demand in the consumer market further down the road

In Vietnam demand for PP flat yarn has entered a seasonal lull from May to early July and will not pick up until August when the summer harvest begins

PP is widely used in the manufacture of woven sacks (for rice sacks) flexible packaging carpets household appliances and automotive parts

Spot PP prices in southeast Asia have been an uptrend for most of the first half

The PP market begun the year on a bullish note with spot prices surging by almost 10 over the course of two months all-origins PP flat yarn prices peaked at $1295tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia on 2 March

Healthy demand in China helped to provide support to spot prices in southeast Asia in the first quarter with a tight global spot supply leading to further price escalations

Some suppliers pulled back from the southeast Asian spot market to capitalise on better netbacks in other countries including Japan and Pakistan leading to further curtailed spot availability in southeast Asia

The market rally started to lose steam in early March amid subdued demand and a build-up of domestic inventories in China after the Lunar New Year holidays

The bearish sentiment soon spilled over into southeast Asia with Chinese suppliers pushing some volumes into southeast Asia amid an open arbitrage window

Vietnam remains the market of choice for Chinese exporters and PP import prices in the country plummeted as the result of the lengthened spot availability

However the bearish run was short-lived and prices soon bottomed out in early April

Bullish momentum in the upstream crude and naphtha markets propelled spot prices of polymers higher

Despite lacklustre downstream demand price hikes in April and May were commonplace as producers sought higher asking prices in view of narrower margins

TIGHT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT CHINA PP MARKET DESPITE WEAK DEMANDBy Dora Xue

Tight supply would buoy up Chinarsquos polypropylene (PP) prices in the near term despite weak downstream demand

The market is expecting heavy production losses following recent unexpected outages at five domestic facilities from May and scheduled turnarounds at other plants

In the week ended on 1 June domestic prices for PP flat yarn in east China were assessed at Chinese yuan (CNY) 9075tonne after a steady increase from early April according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos import prices for the same material stood at $1245tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China largely tracking movement in the domestic market over the past two months according to ICIS data

The strong PP prices have also started to deter buyers from purchasing more spot cargoes

ldquoPP prices are too high We donrsquot want to store too much in our warehouserdquo a buyer said

Downstream demand typically goes on a lull in June and July but any downward pressure on prices will be negated by a further tightening of supply as major plants will be taken off line for maintenance

ldquoWhen the maintenance season finishes in late June [PP] prices may start to go downrdquo a trader said

Demand is considered weakest at Qingdao in the eastern Shandong province due to government-mandated production cuts and logistics restrictions ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (SCO Summit) on 9-10 June

As of 1 June the combined polyolefin inventories of Chinese petrochemical majors Sinopec and PetroChina have declined back to normal levels of 700000 tonnes from a high of 1m tonnes in early March market sources said

Import supply to China may not improve in the short term as suppliers still deem other

Back to Quick Navigation | 40Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

Back to Quick Navigation | 43Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 38: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

Back to Quick Navigation | 34Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Similarly Taiwanrsquos TSRC also cut the production output of its SBR and PBR plants

The outlook for the fourth quarter is expected to see a different turn of events with SBR and PBR plants resuming their production and ramping up their operating rates while supply during the last quarter is expected to tighten from the heavy cracker turnaround season

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYETHYLENE (PE)

SOUTHEAST ASIA PE MARKET FACES LONGER H2 SUPPLY WEAK DEMANDBy Felita Widjaja

Southeast Asiarsquos polyethylene (PE) market may be facing longer supply in the second half hinging on how the US-China trade spat plays out amid the regionrsquos weakening demand for imports

Global PE trade flows will be affected should China the biggest importer of spot PE cargoes in the world decide to impose retaliatory 25 tariff on US cargoes

Southeast Asia as an alternative buying region might be hard pressed to absorb additional supply from the US where massive PE capacities recently started up which were meant to cater to huge Chinese demand

Around 5m tonnes of additional US PE capacities are expected from several major projects including those in the pipeline to start up within the second half of 2018

China primarily imports PE cargoes from Asia and the Middle East while the US is its sixth leading PE supplier in 2017

ldquoEventually more substantial and regular volume of US [PE] cargoes are expected to be traded in Asia in the second half of the year as we have yet to see them in the first half of this yearrdquo said a regional trader

Any changes in trade flows would pose challenges to US suppliers in the short term as they would need to revamp their logistics and distribution channels to redirect cargoes to other markets

Suppliers from the Middle East meanwhile might take the opportunity to supply more cargoes to China and would mean fewer volumes available to the southeast Asian market

The Middle East is southeast Asiarsquos major PE supplier

Demand for PE imports in southeast Asia has been weak amid lower prices in

Back to Quick Navigation | 35Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

the domestic markets as in the case of Thailand

ldquoThai traders are not keen to import as local prices are more competitive so they do not have the margin to sell the imported cargoes in local market Only some converters who need specific cargoes continue to importrdquo said a local Thai trader

Malaysia and Indonesia with predominantly Muslim populations have seen market activity slow down since mid-May when the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan started Ramadan ends with the Eid ul-Fitr holiday on 15 June

The Indonesian government has declared a longer Eid-ul Fitr holiday this year from 11-20 June

Markets in Singapore and the Philippines will be closed for the mid-June holiday as well

With supply expected to become long some market players expect regional PE prices in July and August to ease from

June with restocking activities expected to kick in towards the end of the third quarter

In the first half of 2018 southeast Asiarsquos average prices for commodity PE were largely stable to firm owing to suppliersrsquo relatively comfortable-to-tight supply for most of the period

At the start of June high density polyethylene (HDPE) film grade prices averaged $1395tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia while linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) film were at $1210tonne CFR SE Asia and $1265tonne CFR SE Asia respectively according to ICIS data

Prices had spiked in the first quarter as suppliers were holding comfortable-to-tight inventory as several regional producers have scheduled turnarounds at their plants in March Production issues and shutdowns in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia also limited availability of imports to southeast Asia during this period

Supply for HDPE film was particularly tight as some producers from the Middle East as well as Asia switched their focus into making HDPE pipe grade amid robust demand and better netbacks

The price uptrend across most PE grades could not be sustained in the second quarter although prices remained relatively stable-to-firm

The depreciation of local currencies in southeast Asia against the US dollar in most of the second quarter was also curbing overall demand for imports A weaker currency makes US dollar-denominated imports expensive

ldquoIndonesian buyers have not been buying much cargoes as the market slowed down during Ramadan and also because of weak rupiah which led the central bank to increase interest rate to limit the depreciationrdquo said a regional producer

CHINA PE IMPORTS TO STAY STRONG AMID DOMESTIC PLANT TURNAROUNDS By Angie Li

Chinarsquos polyethylene (PE) imports are expected to remain strong for the rest of the year after posting record volumes in January to April 2018 amid scheduled turnarounds at domestic facilities

Buyers in China have been accumulating imported PE cargoes as these were priced lower compared futures prices since the start of the year

More cargoes will be available to China as new capacities in the US are expected to boost production

For the month of May the countryrsquos PE imports are projected to reach 12m tonnes higher than the monthly average in the first four months of 2018

In January to April 2018 its PE imports volumes totaled 447m tonnes up by 12 from the previous corresponding period according to industry sources

The import volumes were making up for the production losses in the domestic market due to scheduled turnarounds

On 1 June low density PE (LDPE) imports were assessed at $1155-1180tonne linear low density PE (LLDPE) stood at $1150-1170tonne while high density PE (HDPE) film products were at $1340-1400tonne according to ICIS data

The prices have increased 15-62 from end-March but the gains came in lower than market playersrsquo expectations considering the heavy production loss due to turnarounds from April

Back to Quick Navigation | 36Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

An estimated 500000 tonnes are expected to be shaved in the second quarter due to scheduled maintenance at domestic facilities according ICIS data

ldquoWe thought the hefty plant turnarounds in the second quarter should lead to a surge in PE prices but the LDPE and LLDPE prices were less than satisfactory although HDPE prices [were] highrdquo said an east China-based trader referring to both the import and domestic PE prices

Strong imports amid hedging activities bloated the total supply in China in January to April to 998m tonnes up by 8 from the previous corresponding period with supply of LDPE and LLDPE up by 14 and 8 respectively market sources said

Imports of HDPE inched up by 2 over the same period given the gradersquos comparatively higher prices compared with LLDPE and LDPE

Increased availability due to recent capacity expansions and start-ups in Asia the Middle East also fuels Chinarsquos appetite for import cargoes

In the first quarter of 2018 additional cargoes from Saudi Arabia were mostly from Sadara Chemical which started up its 750000 tonneyear swing plant and 350000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Al Jubail during late 2016 and early 2017 respectively

Cargoes of Iran origin augmented the total volume from the UAE as market players try to go around the financial sanctions on Tehran Kordestan Petrochemicalrsquos 300000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Iran came on stream in March 2017

UAErsquos Borouge has also ramped up pipe and HDPE film exports to China during the period according to a supplier in the Middle East

Meanwhile PE imports from Singapore surged 38 year on year while those from India more than doubled to 127000 tonnes according to China Customs data

The ban on waste plastics implemented in China in the year also bolstered imports of virgin PE Some waste plastics processed overseas and then re-entered the market as virgin products but these volumes were limited

Last year China has imported 194m tonnes of PE waste plastics while

volumes in 2018 will be negligible with the implemention of the ban

Chinarsquos PE production this year is expected to increase by around 7 to about 17m tonnes in 2018 with imports projected to grow by 102 to around 13m tonnes according to a source from state-owned petrochemical giant PetroChina

Domestic demand for PE on the other hand is forecast to grow by 8 this year mainly from the packaging and pipe markets

Chinarsquos ongoing campaign to switch to using gas for power generation instead of coal is expected to continue boosting demand for PE gas pipes this year

The packaging industry will also drive up PE consumption underpinned by growth in electronic commerce Chinarsquos express delivery volumes reached 137bn packages during January-April 2018 based on data from the recent China Express Industry Development Conference in May

Back to Quick Navigation | 37Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 38Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

By Jonathan Lopez

ICIS NewsThe leading news service for real-time ground breaking news and analysis on the global petrochemicals markets

The ICIS News services give you unrivalled access to the most in-depth stories impacting the petrochemicals markets influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions

Our team of global editors are reporting around the clock to bring you the latest news and analysis so that you get the full picture of market and pricing developments first providing you with invaluable foresight to take advantage of every opportunity and to stay ahead of your competitors

With ICIS News you will be the first to read

Breaking news on the chemical markets that will impact your business

News on market moves deals and announcements that will affect your organisation

Force majeures closures and developments that influence your commodity prices

Expert analysis on industry trends and hot topics ndash know whatrsquos happening and why

Searchable archive with over 14 million articles from the past 10 years

Chemical Business News Base (CBNB) is a premium resource available on ICIS News It provides you with an extensive external source of upstream and downstream petrochemical news in summarised snapshots so you can quickly and easily get the latest updates on whatrsquos important to you

CBNB offers readers

Fast and consistent coverage on news facts figures from the upstream and downstream petrochemicals industry

Access to over 700 news sources including technical and trade journals company literature market research reports stockbroker reports books and directories

User-friendly search functionality to find articles most relevant to you from around the globe

Quick and easy-to-read summarised snapshots of articles with option to access full articles from the original source

ICIS Chemical Business digital magazine (ICB) Our global team of experts digests and summarises the key issues and their potential impact on the chemical markets offering a comprehensive overview of the key developments that matter most-along with informed opinion and in-depth analysis

ICB features include

In-depth insight into chemical price changes and their impact on the markets

Understand the detail behind the headline news stories

Find out about supply amp demand trends and the factors impacting them

Get the complete picture of the chemical markets ndash all in one e-magazine

Easy access via e-magazine and premium magazine website

Find out more wwwiciscomnews

ICIS News offers access to additional sources including the ICIS Chemical Business Magazine and Chemical Business News Base (CBNB)

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYPROPYLENE (PP)

SE ASIA PP PRICES MAY COME UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 AS SUPPLY LENGTHENSBy Leanne Tan

Southeast Asiarsquos polypropylene (PP) market may come under pressure in the second half of the year on account of lengthening regional supply and weak downstream demand

Spot prices have been on the rise for most of May buoyed by bullish sentiment in the Chinese market and firm upstream feedstock costs

Margins for PP makers have been lower on average compared with levels in the previous year

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refinery amp Petrochemicals is scheduled to start up its 400000 tonneyear PP production unit in the third quarter The project was initially scheduled to start up in the first quarter of 2018

While domestic demand will continue to outstrip local production the countryrsquos reliance on imports may be diminished when the new plant starts up

Converters in the country have been opting to keep inventories lean in the short term amid expectations that prices may eventually weaken when more domestic supply becomes available

ldquoBuyers donrsquot want to buy too much import cargoes now not just because prices are high but also because there will be more locally-produced materials very soonrdquo a Vietnamese trader said

In Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan is expected to start commercial production at its expanded PP facility in Pasir Gudang in June or July The plantrsquos capacity will be raised by 200000 tonnesyear from 400000 tonnesyear

Import availabilities from South Korea are expected to lengthen in the medium-to-long term with S-Oil expected to complete an olefin downstream complex (ODC) at its Onsan refinery in Ulsan which will include a

405000 tonneyear PP capacity

On the demand front weakness is likely to persist in the second half with converters and end-users likely to continue buying spot cargoes on a hand-to-mouth basis

Indonesiarsquos demand in particular has been below expectations since the start of 2018 and this is likely to continue in the second half of the year according to market players

Back to Quick Navigation | 39Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Some players said import demand for dutiable cargoes may increase in the second half of the year as this is typically when the government issues duty exemption facilities

The duty exemption facilities are issued on a yearly basis which enable converters to import some PP volumes without extra cost

In Malaysia the removal of the 6 goods and services tax (GST) so far has had no immediate impact on the PP market although there are some expectations the move could potentially boost demand in the consumer market further down the road

In Vietnam demand for PP flat yarn has entered a seasonal lull from May to early July and will not pick up until August when the summer harvest begins

PP is widely used in the manufacture of woven sacks (for rice sacks) flexible packaging carpets household appliances and automotive parts

Spot PP prices in southeast Asia have been an uptrend for most of the first half

The PP market begun the year on a bullish note with spot prices surging by almost 10 over the course of two months all-origins PP flat yarn prices peaked at $1295tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia on 2 March

Healthy demand in China helped to provide support to spot prices in southeast Asia in the first quarter with a tight global spot supply leading to further price escalations

Some suppliers pulled back from the southeast Asian spot market to capitalise on better netbacks in other countries including Japan and Pakistan leading to further curtailed spot availability in southeast Asia

The market rally started to lose steam in early March amid subdued demand and a build-up of domestic inventories in China after the Lunar New Year holidays

The bearish sentiment soon spilled over into southeast Asia with Chinese suppliers pushing some volumes into southeast Asia amid an open arbitrage window

Vietnam remains the market of choice for Chinese exporters and PP import prices in the country plummeted as the result of the lengthened spot availability

However the bearish run was short-lived and prices soon bottomed out in early April

Bullish momentum in the upstream crude and naphtha markets propelled spot prices of polymers higher

Despite lacklustre downstream demand price hikes in April and May were commonplace as producers sought higher asking prices in view of narrower margins

TIGHT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT CHINA PP MARKET DESPITE WEAK DEMANDBy Dora Xue

Tight supply would buoy up Chinarsquos polypropylene (PP) prices in the near term despite weak downstream demand

The market is expecting heavy production losses following recent unexpected outages at five domestic facilities from May and scheduled turnarounds at other plants

In the week ended on 1 June domestic prices for PP flat yarn in east China were assessed at Chinese yuan (CNY) 9075tonne after a steady increase from early April according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos import prices for the same material stood at $1245tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China largely tracking movement in the domestic market over the past two months according to ICIS data

The strong PP prices have also started to deter buyers from purchasing more spot cargoes

ldquoPP prices are too high We donrsquot want to store too much in our warehouserdquo a buyer said

Downstream demand typically goes on a lull in June and July but any downward pressure on prices will be negated by a further tightening of supply as major plants will be taken off line for maintenance

ldquoWhen the maintenance season finishes in late June [PP] prices may start to go downrdquo a trader said

Demand is considered weakest at Qingdao in the eastern Shandong province due to government-mandated production cuts and logistics restrictions ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (SCO Summit) on 9-10 June

As of 1 June the combined polyolefin inventories of Chinese petrochemical majors Sinopec and PetroChina have declined back to normal levels of 700000 tonnes from a high of 1m tonnes in early March market sources said

Import supply to China may not improve in the short term as suppliers still deem other

Back to Quick Navigation | 40Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

Back to Quick Navigation | 43Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 39: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYETHYLENE (PE)

SOUTHEAST ASIA PE MARKET FACES LONGER H2 SUPPLY WEAK DEMANDBy Felita Widjaja

Southeast Asiarsquos polyethylene (PE) market may be facing longer supply in the second half hinging on how the US-China trade spat plays out amid the regionrsquos weakening demand for imports

Global PE trade flows will be affected should China the biggest importer of spot PE cargoes in the world decide to impose retaliatory 25 tariff on US cargoes

Southeast Asia as an alternative buying region might be hard pressed to absorb additional supply from the US where massive PE capacities recently started up which were meant to cater to huge Chinese demand

Around 5m tonnes of additional US PE capacities are expected from several major projects including those in the pipeline to start up within the second half of 2018

China primarily imports PE cargoes from Asia and the Middle East while the US is its sixth leading PE supplier in 2017

ldquoEventually more substantial and regular volume of US [PE] cargoes are expected to be traded in Asia in the second half of the year as we have yet to see them in the first half of this yearrdquo said a regional trader

Any changes in trade flows would pose challenges to US suppliers in the short term as they would need to revamp their logistics and distribution channels to redirect cargoes to other markets

Suppliers from the Middle East meanwhile might take the opportunity to supply more cargoes to China and would mean fewer volumes available to the southeast Asian market

The Middle East is southeast Asiarsquos major PE supplier

Demand for PE imports in southeast Asia has been weak amid lower prices in

Back to Quick Navigation | 35Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

the domestic markets as in the case of Thailand

ldquoThai traders are not keen to import as local prices are more competitive so they do not have the margin to sell the imported cargoes in local market Only some converters who need specific cargoes continue to importrdquo said a local Thai trader

Malaysia and Indonesia with predominantly Muslim populations have seen market activity slow down since mid-May when the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan started Ramadan ends with the Eid ul-Fitr holiday on 15 June

The Indonesian government has declared a longer Eid-ul Fitr holiday this year from 11-20 June

Markets in Singapore and the Philippines will be closed for the mid-June holiday as well

With supply expected to become long some market players expect regional PE prices in July and August to ease from

June with restocking activities expected to kick in towards the end of the third quarter

In the first half of 2018 southeast Asiarsquos average prices for commodity PE were largely stable to firm owing to suppliersrsquo relatively comfortable-to-tight supply for most of the period

At the start of June high density polyethylene (HDPE) film grade prices averaged $1395tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia while linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) film were at $1210tonne CFR SE Asia and $1265tonne CFR SE Asia respectively according to ICIS data

Prices had spiked in the first quarter as suppliers were holding comfortable-to-tight inventory as several regional producers have scheduled turnarounds at their plants in March Production issues and shutdowns in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia also limited availability of imports to southeast Asia during this period

Supply for HDPE film was particularly tight as some producers from the Middle East as well as Asia switched their focus into making HDPE pipe grade amid robust demand and better netbacks

The price uptrend across most PE grades could not be sustained in the second quarter although prices remained relatively stable-to-firm

The depreciation of local currencies in southeast Asia against the US dollar in most of the second quarter was also curbing overall demand for imports A weaker currency makes US dollar-denominated imports expensive

ldquoIndonesian buyers have not been buying much cargoes as the market slowed down during Ramadan and also because of weak rupiah which led the central bank to increase interest rate to limit the depreciationrdquo said a regional producer

CHINA PE IMPORTS TO STAY STRONG AMID DOMESTIC PLANT TURNAROUNDS By Angie Li

Chinarsquos polyethylene (PE) imports are expected to remain strong for the rest of the year after posting record volumes in January to April 2018 amid scheduled turnarounds at domestic facilities

Buyers in China have been accumulating imported PE cargoes as these were priced lower compared futures prices since the start of the year

More cargoes will be available to China as new capacities in the US are expected to boost production

For the month of May the countryrsquos PE imports are projected to reach 12m tonnes higher than the monthly average in the first four months of 2018

In January to April 2018 its PE imports volumes totaled 447m tonnes up by 12 from the previous corresponding period according to industry sources

The import volumes were making up for the production losses in the domestic market due to scheduled turnarounds

On 1 June low density PE (LDPE) imports were assessed at $1155-1180tonne linear low density PE (LLDPE) stood at $1150-1170tonne while high density PE (HDPE) film products were at $1340-1400tonne according to ICIS data

The prices have increased 15-62 from end-March but the gains came in lower than market playersrsquo expectations considering the heavy production loss due to turnarounds from April

Back to Quick Navigation | 36Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

An estimated 500000 tonnes are expected to be shaved in the second quarter due to scheduled maintenance at domestic facilities according ICIS data

ldquoWe thought the hefty plant turnarounds in the second quarter should lead to a surge in PE prices but the LDPE and LLDPE prices were less than satisfactory although HDPE prices [were] highrdquo said an east China-based trader referring to both the import and domestic PE prices

Strong imports amid hedging activities bloated the total supply in China in January to April to 998m tonnes up by 8 from the previous corresponding period with supply of LDPE and LLDPE up by 14 and 8 respectively market sources said

Imports of HDPE inched up by 2 over the same period given the gradersquos comparatively higher prices compared with LLDPE and LDPE

Increased availability due to recent capacity expansions and start-ups in Asia the Middle East also fuels Chinarsquos appetite for import cargoes

In the first quarter of 2018 additional cargoes from Saudi Arabia were mostly from Sadara Chemical which started up its 750000 tonneyear swing plant and 350000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Al Jubail during late 2016 and early 2017 respectively

Cargoes of Iran origin augmented the total volume from the UAE as market players try to go around the financial sanctions on Tehran Kordestan Petrochemicalrsquos 300000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Iran came on stream in March 2017

UAErsquos Borouge has also ramped up pipe and HDPE film exports to China during the period according to a supplier in the Middle East

Meanwhile PE imports from Singapore surged 38 year on year while those from India more than doubled to 127000 tonnes according to China Customs data

The ban on waste plastics implemented in China in the year also bolstered imports of virgin PE Some waste plastics processed overseas and then re-entered the market as virgin products but these volumes were limited

Last year China has imported 194m tonnes of PE waste plastics while

volumes in 2018 will be negligible with the implemention of the ban

Chinarsquos PE production this year is expected to increase by around 7 to about 17m tonnes in 2018 with imports projected to grow by 102 to around 13m tonnes according to a source from state-owned petrochemical giant PetroChina

Domestic demand for PE on the other hand is forecast to grow by 8 this year mainly from the packaging and pipe markets

Chinarsquos ongoing campaign to switch to using gas for power generation instead of coal is expected to continue boosting demand for PE gas pipes this year

The packaging industry will also drive up PE consumption underpinned by growth in electronic commerce Chinarsquos express delivery volumes reached 137bn packages during January-April 2018 based on data from the recent China Express Industry Development Conference in May

Back to Quick Navigation | 37Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 38Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

By Jonathan Lopez

ICIS NewsThe leading news service for real-time ground breaking news and analysis on the global petrochemicals markets

The ICIS News services give you unrivalled access to the most in-depth stories impacting the petrochemicals markets influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions

Our team of global editors are reporting around the clock to bring you the latest news and analysis so that you get the full picture of market and pricing developments first providing you with invaluable foresight to take advantage of every opportunity and to stay ahead of your competitors

With ICIS News you will be the first to read

Breaking news on the chemical markets that will impact your business

News on market moves deals and announcements that will affect your organisation

Force majeures closures and developments that influence your commodity prices

Expert analysis on industry trends and hot topics ndash know whatrsquos happening and why

Searchable archive with over 14 million articles from the past 10 years

Chemical Business News Base (CBNB) is a premium resource available on ICIS News It provides you with an extensive external source of upstream and downstream petrochemical news in summarised snapshots so you can quickly and easily get the latest updates on whatrsquos important to you

CBNB offers readers

Fast and consistent coverage on news facts figures from the upstream and downstream petrochemicals industry

Access to over 700 news sources including technical and trade journals company literature market research reports stockbroker reports books and directories

User-friendly search functionality to find articles most relevant to you from around the globe

Quick and easy-to-read summarised snapshots of articles with option to access full articles from the original source

ICIS Chemical Business digital magazine (ICB) Our global team of experts digests and summarises the key issues and their potential impact on the chemical markets offering a comprehensive overview of the key developments that matter most-along with informed opinion and in-depth analysis

ICB features include

In-depth insight into chemical price changes and their impact on the markets

Understand the detail behind the headline news stories

Find out about supply amp demand trends and the factors impacting them

Get the complete picture of the chemical markets ndash all in one e-magazine

Easy access via e-magazine and premium magazine website

Find out more wwwiciscomnews

ICIS News offers access to additional sources including the ICIS Chemical Business Magazine and Chemical Business News Base (CBNB)

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYPROPYLENE (PP)

SE ASIA PP PRICES MAY COME UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 AS SUPPLY LENGTHENSBy Leanne Tan

Southeast Asiarsquos polypropylene (PP) market may come under pressure in the second half of the year on account of lengthening regional supply and weak downstream demand

Spot prices have been on the rise for most of May buoyed by bullish sentiment in the Chinese market and firm upstream feedstock costs

Margins for PP makers have been lower on average compared with levels in the previous year

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refinery amp Petrochemicals is scheduled to start up its 400000 tonneyear PP production unit in the third quarter The project was initially scheduled to start up in the first quarter of 2018

While domestic demand will continue to outstrip local production the countryrsquos reliance on imports may be diminished when the new plant starts up

Converters in the country have been opting to keep inventories lean in the short term amid expectations that prices may eventually weaken when more domestic supply becomes available

ldquoBuyers donrsquot want to buy too much import cargoes now not just because prices are high but also because there will be more locally-produced materials very soonrdquo a Vietnamese trader said

In Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan is expected to start commercial production at its expanded PP facility in Pasir Gudang in June or July The plantrsquos capacity will be raised by 200000 tonnesyear from 400000 tonnesyear

Import availabilities from South Korea are expected to lengthen in the medium-to-long term with S-Oil expected to complete an olefin downstream complex (ODC) at its Onsan refinery in Ulsan which will include a

405000 tonneyear PP capacity

On the demand front weakness is likely to persist in the second half with converters and end-users likely to continue buying spot cargoes on a hand-to-mouth basis

Indonesiarsquos demand in particular has been below expectations since the start of 2018 and this is likely to continue in the second half of the year according to market players

Back to Quick Navigation | 39Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Some players said import demand for dutiable cargoes may increase in the second half of the year as this is typically when the government issues duty exemption facilities

The duty exemption facilities are issued on a yearly basis which enable converters to import some PP volumes without extra cost

In Malaysia the removal of the 6 goods and services tax (GST) so far has had no immediate impact on the PP market although there are some expectations the move could potentially boost demand in the consumer market further down the road

In Vietnam demand for PP flat yarn has entered a seasonal lull from May to early July and will not pick up until August when the summer harvest begins

PP is widely used in the manufacture of woven sacks (for rice sacks) flexible packaging carpets household appliances and automotive parts

Spot PP prices in southeast Asia have been an uptrend for most of the first half

The PP market begun the year on a bullish note with spot prices surging by almost 10 over the course of two months all-origins PP flat yarn prices peaked at $1295tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia on 2 March

Healthy demand in China helped to provide support to spot prices in southeast Asia in the first quarter with a tight global spot supply leading to further price escalations

Some suppliers pulled back from the southeast Asian spot market to capitalise on better netbacks in other countries including Japan and Pakistan leading to further curtailed spot availability in southeast Asia

The market rally started to lose steam in early March amid subdued demand and a build-up of domestic inventories in China after the Lunar New Year holidays

The bearish sentiment soon spilled over into southeast Asia with Chinese suppliers pushing some volumes into southeast Asia amid an open arbitrage window

Vietnam remains the market of choice for Chinese exporters and PP import prices in the country plummeted as the result of the lengthened spot availability

However the bearish run was short-lived and prices soon bottomed out in early April

Bullish momentum in the upstream crude and naphtha markets propelled spot prices of polymers higher

Despite lacklustre downstream demand price hikes in April and May were commonplace as producers sought higher asking prices in view of narrower margins

TIGHT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT CHINA PP MARKET DESPITE WEAK DEMANDBy Dora Xue

Tight supply would buoy up Chinarsquos polypropylene (PP) prices in the near term despite weak downstream demand

The market is expecting heavy production losses following recent unexpected outages at five domestic facilities from May and scheduled turnarounds at other plants

In the week ended on 1 June domestic prices for PP flat yarn in east China were assessed at Chinese yuan (CNY) 9075tonne after a steady increase from early April according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos import prices for the same material stood at $1245tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China largely tracking movement in the domestic market over the past two months according to ICIS data

The strong PP prices have also started to deter buyers from purchasing more spot cargoes

ldquoPP prices are too high We donrsquot want to store too much in our warehouserdquo a buyer said

Downstream demand typically goes on a lull in June and July but any downward pressure on prices will be negated by a further tightening of supply as major plants will be taken off line for maintenance

ldquoWhen the maintenance season finishes in late June [PP] prices may start to go downrdquo a trader said

Demand is considered weakest at Qingdao in the eastern Shandong province due to government-mandated production cuts and logistics restrictions ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (SCO Summit) on 9-10 June

As of 1 June the combined polyolefin inventories of Chinese petrochemical majors Sinopec and PetroChina have declined back to normal levels of 700000 tonnes from a high of 1m tonnes in early March market sources said

Import supply to China may not improve in the short term as suppliers still deem other

Back to Quick Navigation | 40Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

Back to Quick Navigation | 43Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 40: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

the domestic markets as in the case of Thailand

ldquoThai traders are not keen to import as local prices are more competitive so they do not have the margin to sell the imported cargoes in local market Only some converters who need specific cargoes continue to importrdquo said a local Thai trader

Malaysia and Indonesia with predominantly Muslim populations have seen market activity slow down since mid-May when the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan started Ramadan ends with the Eid ul-Fitr holiday on 15 June

The Indonesian government has declared a longer Eid-ul Fitr holiday this year from 11-20 June

Markets in Singapore and the Philippines will be closed for the mid-June holiday as well

With supply expected to become long some market players expect regional PE prices in July and August to ease from

June with restocking activities expected to kick in towards the end of the third quarter

In the first half of 2018 southeast Asiarsquos average prices for commodity PE were largely stable to firm owing to suppliersrsquo relatively comfortable-to-tight supply for most of the period

At the start of June high density polyethylene (HDPE) film grade prices averaged $1395tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia while linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) film were at $1210tonne CFR SE Asia and $1265tonne CFR SE Asia respectively according to ICIS data

Prices had spiked in the first quarter as suppliers were holding comfortable-to-tight inventory as several regional producers have scheduled turnarounds at their plants in March Production issues and shutdowns in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia also limited availability of imports to southeast Asia during this period

Supply for HDPE film was particularly tight as some producers from the Middle East as well as Asia switched their focus into making HDPE pipe grade amid robust demand and better netbacks

The price uptrend across most PE grades could not be sustained in the second quarter although prices remained relatively stable-to-firm

The depreciation of local currencies in southeast Asia against the US dollar in most of the second quarter was also curbing overall demand for imports A weaker currency makes US dollar-denominated imports expensive

ldquoIndonesian buyers have not been buying much cargoes as the market slowed down during Ramadan and also because of weak rupiah which led the central bank to increase interest rate to limit the depreciationrdquo said a regional producer

CHINA PE IMPORTS TO STAY STRONG AMID DOMESTIC PLANT TURNAROUNDS By Angie Li

Chinarsquos polyethylene (PE) imports are expected to remain strong for the rest of the year after posting record volumes in January to April 2018 amid scheduled turnarounds at domestic facilities

Buyers in China have been accumulating imported PE cargoes as these were priced lower compared futures prices since the start of the year

More cargoes will be available to China as new capacities in the US are expected to boost production

For the month of May the countryrsquos PE imports are projected to reach 12m tonnes higher than the monthly average in the first four months of 2018

In January to April 2018 its PE imports volumes totaled 447m tonnes up by 12 from the previous corresponding period according to industry sources

The import volumes were making up for the production losses in the domestic market due to scheduled turnarounds

On 1 June low density PE (LDPE) imports were assessed at $1155-1180tonne linear low density PE (LLDPE) stood at $1150-1170tonne while high density PE (HDPE) film products were at $1340-1400tonne according to ICIS data

The prices have increased 15-62 from end-March but the gains came in lower than market playersrsquo expectations considering the heavy production loss due to turnarounds from April

Back to Quick Navigation | 36Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

An estimated 500000 tonnes are expected to be shaved in the second quarter due to scheduled maintenance at domestic facilities according ICIS data

ldquoWe thought the hefty plant turnarounds in the second quarter should lead to a surge in PE prices but the LDPE and LLDPE prices were less than satisfactory although HDPE prices [were] highrdquo said an east China-based trader referring to both the import and domestic PE prices

Strong imports amid hedging activities bloated the total supply in China in January to April to 998m tonnes up by 8 from the previous corresponding period with supply of LDPE and LLDPE up by 14 and 8 respectively market sources said

Imports of HDPE inched up by 2 over the same period given the gradersquos comparatively higher prices compared with LLDPE and LDPE

Increased availability due to recent capacity expansions and start-ups in Asia the Middle East also fuels Chinarsquos appetite for import cargoes

In the first quarter of 2018 additional cargoes from Saudi Arabia were mostly from Sadara Chemical which started up its 750000 tonneyear swing plant and 350000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Al Jubail during late 2016 and early 2017 respectively

Cargoes of Iran origin augmented the total volume from the UAE as market players try to go around the financial sanctions on Tehran Kordestan Petrochemicalrsquos 300000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Iran came on stream in March 2017

UAErsquos Borouge has also ramped up pipe and HDPE film exports to China during the period according to a supplier in the Middle East

Meanwhile PE imports from Singapore surged 38 year on year while those from India more than doubled to 127000 tonnes according to China Customs data

The ban on waste plastics implemented in China in the year also bolstered imports of virgin PE Some waste plastics processed overseas and then re-entered the market as virgin products but these volumes were limited

Last year China has imported 194m tonnes of PE waste plastics while

volumes in 2018 will be negligible with the implemention of the ban

Chinarsquos PE production this year is expected to increase by around 7 to about 17m tonnes in 2018 with imports projected to grow by 102 to around 13m tonnes according to a source from state-owned petrochemical giant PetroChina

Domestic demand for PE on the other hand is forecast to grow by 8 this year mainly from the packaging and pipe markets

Chinarsquos ongoing campaign to switch to using gas for power generation instead of coal is expected to continue boosting demand for PE gas pipes this year

The packaging industry will also drive up PE consumption underpinned by growth in electronic commerce Chinarsquos express delivery volumes reached 137bn packages during January-April 2018 based on data from the recent China Express Industry Development Conference in May

Back to Quick Navigation | 37Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 38Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

By Jonathan Lopez

ICIS NewsThe leading news service for real-time ground breaking news and analysis on the global petrochemicals markets

The ICIS News services give you unrivalled access to the most in-depth stories impacting the petrochemicals markets influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions

Our team of global editors are reporting around the clock to bring you the latest news and analysis so that you get the full picture of market and pricing developments first providing you with invaluable foresight to take advantage of every opportunity and to stay ahead of your competitors

With ICIS News you will be the first to read

Breaking news on the chemical markets that will impact your business

News on market moves deals and announcements that will affect your organisation

Force majeures closures and developments that influence your commodity prices

Expert analysis on industry trends and hot topics ndash know whatrsquos happening and why

Searchable archive with over 14 million articles from the past 10 years

Chemical Business News Base (CBNB) is a premium resource available on ICIS News It provides you with an extensive external source of upstream and downstream petrochemical news in summarised snapshots so you can quickly and easily get the latest updates on whatrsquos important to you

CBNB offers readers

Fast and consistent coverage on news facts figures from the upstream and downstream petrochemicals industry

Access to over 700 news sources including technical and trade journals company literature market research reports stockbroker reports books and directories

User-friendly search functionality to find articles most relevant to you from around the globe

Quick and easy-to-read summarised snapshots of articles with option to access full articles from the original source

ICIS Chemical Business digital magazine (ICB) Our global team of experts digests and summarises the key issues and their potential impact on the chemical markets offering a comprehensive overview of the key developments that matter most-along with informed opinion and in-depth analysis

ICB features include

In-depth insight into chemical price changes and their impact on the markets

Understand the detail behind the headline news stories

Find out about supply amp demand trends and the factors impacting them

Get the complete picture of the chemical markets ndash all in one e-magazine

Easy access via e-magazine and premium magazine website

Find out more wwwiciscomnews

ICIS News offers access to additional sources including the ICIS Chemical Business Magazine and Chemical Business News Base (CBNB)

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYPROPYLENE (PP)

SE ASIA PP PRICES MAY COME UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 AS SUPPLY LENGTHENSBy Leanne Tan

Southeast Asiarsquos polypropylene (PP) market may come under pressure in the second half of the year on account of lengthening regional supply and weak downstream demand

Spot prices have been on the rise for most of May buoyed by bullish sentiment in the Chinese market and firm upstream feedstock costs

Margins for PP makers have been lower on average compared with levels in the previous year

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refinery amp Petrochemicals is scheduled to start up its 400000 tonneyear PP production unit in the third quarter The project was initially scheduled to start up in the first quarter of 2018

While domestic demand will continue to outstrip local production the countryrsquos reliance on imports may be diminished when the new plant starts up

Converters in the country have been opting to keep inventories lean in the short term amid expectations that prices may eventually weaken when more domestic supply becomes available

ldquoBuyers donrsquot want to buy too much import cargoes now not just because prices are high but also because there will be more locally-produced materials very soonrdquo a Vietnamese trader said

In Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan is expected to start commercial production at its expanded PP facility in Pasir Gudang in June or July The plantrsquos capacity will be raised by 200000 tonnesyear from 400000 tonnesyear

Import availabilities from South Korea are expected to lengthen in the medium-to-long term with S-Oil expected to complete an olefin downstream complex (ODC) at its Onsan refinery in Ulsan which will include a

405000 tonneyear PP capacity

On the demand front weakness is likely to persist in the second half with converters and end-users likely to continue buying spot cargoes on a hand-to-mouth basis

Indonesiarsquos demand in particular has been below expectations since the start of 2018 and this is likely to continue in the second half of the year according to market players

Back to Quick Navigation | 39Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Some players said import demand for dutiable cargoes may increase in the second half of the year as this is typically when the government issues duty exemption facilities

The duty exemption facilities are issued on a yearly basis which enable converters to import some PP volumes without extra cost

In Malaysia the removal of the 6 goods and services tax (GST) so far has had no immediate impact on the PP market although there are some expectations the move could potentially boost demand in the consumer market further down the road

In Vietnam demand for PP flat yarn has entered a seasonal lull from May to early July and will not pick up until August when the summer harvest begins

PP is widely used in the manufacture of woven sacks (for rice sacks) flexible packaging carpets household appliances and automotive parts

Spot PP prices in southeast Asia have been an uptrend for most of the first half

The PP market begun the year on a bullish note with spot prices surging by almost 10 over the course of two months all-origins PP flat yarn prices peaked at $1295tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia on 2 March

Healthy demand in China helped to provide support to spot prices in southeast Asia in the first quarter with a tight global spot supply leading to further price escalations

Some suppliers pulled back from the southeast Asian spot market to capitalise on better netbacks in other countries including Japan and Pakistan leading to further curtailed spot availability in southeast Asia

The market rally started to lose steam in early March amid subdued demand and a build-up of domestic inventories in China after the Lunar New Year holidays

The bearish sentiment soon spilled over into southeast Asia with Chinese suppliers pushing some volumes into southeast Asia amid an open arbitrage window

Vietnam remains the market of choice for Chinese exporters and PP import prices in the country plummeted as the result of the lengthened spot availability

However the bearish run was short-lived and prices soon bottomed out in early April

Bullish momentum in the upstream crude and naphtha markets propelled spot prices of polymers higher

Despite lacklustre downstream demand price hikes in April and May were commonplace as producers sought higher asking prices in view of narrower margins

TIGHT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT CHINA PP MARKET DESPITE WEAK DEMANDBy Dora Xue

Tight supply would buoy up Chinarsquos polypropylene (PP) prices in the near term despite weak downstream demand

The market is expecting heavy production losses following recent unexpected outages at five domestic facilities from May and scheduled turnarounds at other plants

In the week ended on 1 June domestic prices for PP flat yarn in east China were assessed at Chinese yuan (CNY) 9075tonne after a steady increase from early April according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos import prices for the same material stood at $1245tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China largely tracking movement in the domestic market over the past two months according to ICIS data

The strong PP prices have also started to deter buyers from purchasing more spot cargoes

ldquoPP prices are too high We donrsquot want to store too much in our warehouserdquo a buyer said

Downstream demand typically goes on a lull in June and July but any downward pressure on prices will be negated by a further tightening of supply as major plants will be taken off line for maintenance

ldquoWhen the maintenance season finishes in late June [PP] prices may start to go downrdquo a trader said

Demand is considered weakest at Qingdao in the eastern Shandong province due to government-mandated production cuts and logistics restrictions ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (SCO Summit) on 9-10 June

As of 1 June the combined polyolefin inventories of Chinese petrochemical majors Sinopec and PetroChina have declined back to normal levels of 700000 tonnes from a high of 1m tonnes in early March market sources said

Import supply to China may not improve in the short term as suppliers still deem other

Back to Quick Navigation | 40Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

Back to Quick Navigation | 43Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 41: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

An estimated 500000 tonnes are expected to be shaved in the second quarter due to scheduled maintenance at domestic facilities according ICIS data

ldquoWe thought the hefty plant turnarounds in the second quarter should lead to a surge in PE prices but the LDPE and LLDPE prices were less than satisfactory although HDPE prices [were] highrdquo said an east China-based trader referring to both the import and domestic PE prices

Strong imports amid hedging activities bloated the total supply in China in January to April to 998m tonnes up by 8 from the previous corresponding period with supply of LDPE and LLDPE up by 14 and 8 respectively market sources said

Imports of HDPE inched up by 2 over the same period given the gradersquos comparatively higher prices compared with LLDPE and LDPE

Increased availability due to recent capacity expansions and start-ups in Asia the Middle East also fuels Chinarsquos appetite for import cargoes

In the first quarter of 2018 additional cargoes from Saudi Arabia were mostly from Sadara Chemical which started up its 750000 tonneyear swing plant and 350000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Al Jubail during late 2016 and early 2017 respectively

Cargoes of Iran origin augmented the total volume from the UAE as market players try to go around the financial sanctions on Tehran Kordestan Petrochemicalrsquos 300000 tonneyear LDPE plant in Iran came on stream in March 2017

UAErsquos Borouge has also ramped up pipe and HDPE film exports to China during the period according to a supplier in the Middle East

Meanwhile PE imports from Singapore surged 38 year on year while those from India more than doubled to 127000 tonnes according to China Customs data

The ban on waste plastics implemented in China in the year also bolstered imports of virgin PE Some waste plastics processed overseas and then re-entered the market as virgin products but these volumes were limited

Last year China has imported 194m tonnes of PE waste plastics while

volumes in 2018 will be negligible with the implemention of the ban

Chinarsquos PE production this year is expected to increase by around 7 to about 17m tonnes in 2018 with imports projected to grow by 102 to around 13m tonnes according to a source from state-owned petrochemical giant PetroChina

Domestic demand for PE on the other hand is forecast to grow by 8 this year mainly from the packaging and pipe markets

Chinarsquos ongoing campaign to switch to using gas for power generation instead of coal is expected to continue boosting demand for PE gas pipes this year

The packaging industry will also drive up PE consumption underpinned by growth in electronic commerce Chinarsquos express delivery volumes reached 137bn packages during January-April 2018 based on data from the recent China Express Industry Development Conference in May

Back to Quick Navigation | 37Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Back to Quick Navigation | 38Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

By Jonathan Lopez

ICIS NewsThe leading news service for real-time ground breaking news and analysis on the global petrochemicals markets

The ICIS News services give you unrivalled access to the most in-depth stories impacting the petrochemicals markets influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions

Our team of global editors are reporting around the clock to bring you the latest news and analysis so that you get the full picture of market and pricing developments first providing you with invaluable foresight to take advantage of every opportunity and to stay ahead of your competitors

With ICIS News you will be the first to read

Breaking news on the chemical markets that will impact your business

News on market moves deals and announcements that will affect your organisation

Force majeures closures and developments that influence your commodity prices

Expert analysis on industry trends and hot topics ndash know whatrsquos happening and why

Searchable archive with over 14 million articles from the past 10 years

Chemical Business News Base (CBNB) is a premium resource available on ICIS News It provides you with an extensive external source of upstream and downstream petrochemical news in summarised snapshots so you can quickly and easily get the latest updates on whatrsquos important to you

CBNB offers readers

Fast and consistent coverage on news facts figures from the upstream and downstream petrochemicals industry

Access to over 700 news sources including technical and trade journals company literature market research reports stockbroker reports books and directories

User-friendly search functionality to find articles most relevant to you from around the globe

Quick and easy-to-read summarised snapshots of articles with option to access full articles from the original source

ICIS Chemical Business digital magazine (ICB) Our global team of experts digests and summarises the key issues and their potential impact on the chemical markets offering a comprehensive overview of the key developments that matter most-along with informed opinion and in-depth analysis

ICB features include

In-depth insight into chemical price changes and their impact on the markets

Understand the detail behind the headline news stories

Find out about supply amp demand trends and the factors impacting them

Get the complete picture of the chemical markets ndash all in one e-magazine

Easy access via e-magazine and premium magazine website

Find out more wwwiciscomnews

ICIS News offers access to additional sources including the ICIS Chemical Business Magazine and Chemical Business News Base (CBNB)

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYPROPYLENE (PP)

SE ASIA PP PRICES MAY COME UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 AS SUPPLY LENGTHENSBy Leanne Tan

Southeast Asiarsquos polypropylene (PP) market may come under pressure in the second half of the year on account of lengthening regional supply and weak downstream demand

Spot prices have been on the rise for most of May buoyed by bullish sentiment in the Chinese market and firm upstream feedstock costs

Margins for PP makers have been lower on average compared with levels in the previous year

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refinery amp Petrochemicals is scheduled to start up its 400000 tonneyear PP production unit in the third quarter The project was initially scheduled to start up in the first quarter of 2018

While domestic demand will continue to outstrip local production the countryrsquos reliance on imports may be diminished when the new plant starts up

Converters in the country have been opting to keep inventories lean in the short term amid expectations that prices may eventually weaken when more domestic supply becomes available

ldquoBuyers donrsquot want to buy too much import cargoes now not just because prices are high but also because there will be more locally-produced materials very soonrdquo a Vietnamese trader said

In Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan is expected to start commercial production at its expanded PP facility in Pasir Gudang in June or July The plantrsquos capacity will be raised by 200000 tonnesyear from 400000 tonnesyear

Import availabilities from South Korea are expected to lengthen in the medium-to-long term with S-Oil expected to complete an olefin downstream complex (ODC) at its Onsan refinery in Ulsan which will include a

405000 tonneyear PP capacity

On the demand front weakness is likely to persist in the second half with converters and end-users likely to continue buying spot cargoes on a hand-to-mouth basis

Indonesiarsquos demand in particular has been below expectations since the start of 2018 and this is likely to continue in the second half of the year according to market players

Back to Quick Navigation | 39Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Some players said import demand for dutiable cargoes may increase in the second half of the year as this is typically when the government issues duty exemption facilities

The duty exemption facilities are issued on a yearly basis which enable converters to import some PP volumes without extra cost

In Malaysia the removal of the 6 goods and services tax (GST) so far has had no immediate impact on the PP market although there are some expectations the move could potentially boost demand in the consumer market further down the road

In Vietnam demand for PP flat yarn has entered a seasonal lull from May to early July and will not pick up until August when the summer harvest begins

PP is widely used in the manufacture of woven sacks (for rice sacks) flexible packaging carpets household appliances and automotive parts

Spot PP prices in southeast Asia have been an uptrend for most of the first half

The PP market begun the year on a bullish note with spot prices surging by almost 10 over the course of two months all-origins PP flat yarn prices peaked at $1295tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia on 2 March

Healthy demand in China helped to provide support to spot prices in southeast Asia in the first quarter with a tight global spot supply leading to further price escalations

Some suppliers pulled back from the southeast Asian spot market to capitalise on better netbacks in other countries including Japan and Pakistan leading to further curtailed spot availability in southeast Asia

The market rally started to lose steam in early March amid subdued demand and a build-up of domestic inventories in China after the Lunar New Year holidays

The bearish sentiment soon spilled over into southeast Asia with Chinese suppliers pushing some volumes into southeast Asia amid an open arbitrage window

Vietnam remains the market of choice for Chinese exporters and PP import prices in the country plummeted as the result of the lengthened spot availability

However the bearish run was short-lived and prices soon bottomed out in early April

Bullish momentum in the upstream crude and naphtha markets propelled spot prices of polymers higher

Despite lacklustre downstream demand price hikes in April and May were commonplace as producers sought higher asking prices in view of narrower margins

TIGHT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT CHINA PP MARKET DESPITE WEAK DEMANDBy Dora Xue

Tight supply would buoy up Chinarsquos polypropylene (PP) prices in the near term despite weak downstream demand

The market is expecting heavy production losses following recent unexpected outages at five domestic facilities from May and scheduled turnarounds at other plants

In the week ended on 1 June domestic prices for PP flat yarn in east China were assessed at Chinese yuan (CNY) 9075tonne after a steady increase from early April according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos import prices for the same material stood at $1245tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China largely tracking movement in the domestic market over the past two months according to ICIS data

The strong PP prices have also started to deter buyers from purchasing more spot cargoes

ldquoPP prices are too high We donrsquot want to store too much in our warehouserdquo a buyer said

Downstream demand typically goes on a lull in June and July but any downward pressure on prices will be negated by a further tightening of supply as major plants will be taken off line for maintenance

ldquoWhen the maintenance season finishes in late June [PP] prices may start to go downrdquo a trader said

Demand is considered weakest at Qingdao in the eastern Shandong province due to government-mandated production cuts and logistics restrictions ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (SCO Summit) on 9-10 June

As of 1 June the combined polyolefin inventories of Chinese petrochemical majors Sinopec and PetroChina have declined back to normal levels of 700000 tonnes from a high of 1m tonnes in early March market sources said

Import supply to China may not improve in the short term as suppliers still deem other

Back to Quick Navigation | 40Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

Back to Quick Navigation | 43Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 42: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

Back to Quick Navigation | 38Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

By Jonathan Lopez

ICIS NewsThe leading news service for real-time ground breaking news and analysis on the global petrochemicals markets

The ICIS News services give you unrivalled access to the most in-depth stories impacting the petrochemicals markets influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions

Our team of global editors are reporting around the clock to bring you the latest news and analysis so that you get the full picture of market and pricing developments first providing you with invaluable foresight to take advantage of every opportunity and to stay ahead of your competitors

With ICIS News you will be the first to read

Breaking news on the chemical markets that will impact your business

News on market moves deals and announcements that will affect your organisation

Force majeures closures and developments that influence your commodity prices

Expert analysis on industry trends and hot topics ndash know whatrsquos happening and why

Searchable archive with over 14 million articles from the past 10 years

Chemical Business News Base (CBNB) is a premium resource available on ICIS News It provides you with an extensive external source of upstream and downstream petrochemical news in summarised snapshots so you can quickly and easily get the latest updates on whatrsquos important to you

CBNB offers readers

Fast and consistent coverage on news facts figures from the upstream and downstream petrochemicals industry

Access to over 700 news sources including technical and trade journals company literature market research reports stockbroker reports books and directories

User-friendly search functionality to find articles most relevant to you from around the globe

Quick and easy-to-read summarised snapshots of articles with option to access full articles from the original source

ICIS Chemical Business digital magazine (ICB) Our global team of experts digests and summarises the key issues and their potential impact on the chemical markets offering a comprehensive overview of the key developments that matter most-along with informed opinion and in-depth analysis

ICB features include

In-depth insight into chemical price changes and their impact on the markets

Understand the detail behind the headline news stories

Find out about supply amp demand trends and the factors impacting them

Get the complete picture of the chemical markets ndash all in one e-magazine

Easy access via e-magazine and premium magazine website

Find out more wwwiciscomnews

ICIS News offers access to additional sources including the ICIS Chemical Business Magazine and Chemical Business News Base (CBNB)

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYPROPYLENE (PP)

SE ASIA PP PRICES MAY COME UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 AS SUPPLY LENGTHENSBy Leanne Tan

Southeast Asiarsquos polypropylene (PP) market may come under pressure in the second half of the year on account of lengthening regional supply and weak downstream demand

Spot prices have been on the rise for most of May buoyed by bullish sentiment in the Chinese market and firm upstream feedstock costs

Margins for PP makers have been lower on average compared with levels in the previous year

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refinery amp Petrochemicals is scheduled to start up its 400000 tonneyear PP production unit in the third quarter The project was initially scheduled to start up in the first quarter of 2018

While domestic demand will continue to outstrip local production the countryrsquos reliance on imports may be diminished when the new plant starts up

Converters in the country have been opting to keep inventories lean in the short term amid expectations that prices may eventually weaken when more domestic supply becomes available

ldquoBuyers donrsquot want to buy too much import cargoes now not just because prices are high but also because there will be more locally-produced materials very soonrdquo a Vietnamese trader said

In Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan is expected to start commercial production at its expanded PP facility in Pasir Gudang in June or July The plantrsquos capacity will be raised by 200000 tonnesyear from 400000 tonnesyear

Import availabilities from South Korea are expected to lengthen in the medium-to-long term with S-Oil expected to complete an olefin downstream complex (ODC) at its Onsan refinery in Ulsan which will include a

405000 tonneyear PP capacity

On the demand front weakness is likely to persist in the second half with converters and end-users likely to continue buying spot cargoes on a hand-to-mouth basis

Indonesiarsquos demand in particular has been below expectations since the start of 2018 and this is likely to continue in the second half of the year according to market players

Back to Quick Navigation | 39Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Some players said import demand for dutiable cargoes may increase in the second half of the year as this is typically when the government issues duty exemption facilities

The duty exemption facilities are issued on a yearly basis which enable converters to import some PP volumes without extra cost

In Malaysia the removal of the 6 goods and services tax (GST) so far has had no immediate impact on the PP market although there are some expectations the move could potentially boost demand in the consumer market further down the road

In Vietnam demand for PP flat yarn has entered a seasonal lull from May to early July and will not pick up until August when the summer harvest begins

PP is widely used in the manufacture of woven sacks (for rice sacks) flexible packaging carpets household appliances and automotive parts

Spot PP prices in southeast Asia have been an uptrend for most of the first half

The PP market begun the year on a bullish note with spot prices surging by almost 10 over the course of two months all-origins PP flat yarn prices peaked at $1295tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia on 2 March

Healthy demand in China helped to provide support to spot prices in southeast Asia in the first quarter with a tight global spot supply leading to further price escalations

Some suppliers pulled back from the southeast Asian spot market to capitalise on better netbacks in other countries including Japan and Pakistan leading to further curtailed spot availability in southeast Asia

The market rally started to lose steam in early March amid subdued demand and a build-up of domestic inventories in China after the Lunar New Year holidays

The bearish sentiment soon spilled over into southeast Asia with Chinese suppliers pushing some volumes into southeast Asia amid an open arbitrage window

Vietnam remains the market of choice for Chinese exporters and PP import prices in the country plummeted as the result of the lengthened spot availability

However the bearish run was short-lived and prices soon bottomed out in early April

Bullish momentum in the upstream crude and naphtha markets propelled spot prices of polymers higher

Despite lacklustre downstream demand price hikes in April and May were commonplace as producers sought higher asking prices in view of narrower margins

TIGHT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT CHINA PP MARKET DESPITE WEAK DEMANDBy Dora Xue

Tight supply would buoy up Chinarsquos polypropylene (PP) prices in the near term despite weak downstream demand

The market is expecting heavy production losses following recent unexpected outages at five domestic facilities from May and scheduled turnarounds at other plants

In the week ended on 1 June domestic prices for PP flat yarn in east China were assessed at Chinese yuan (CNY) 9075tonne after a steady increase from early April according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos import prices for the same material stood at $1245tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China largely tracking movement in the domestic market over the past two months according to ICIS data

The strong PP prices have also started to deter buyers from purchasing more spot cargoes

ldquoPP prices are too high We donrsquot want to store too much in our warehouserdquo a buyer said

Downstream demand typically goes on a lull in June and July but any downward pressure on prices will be negated by a further tightening of supply as major plants will be taken off line for maintenance

ldquoWhen the maintenance season finishes in late June [PP] prices may start to go downrdquo a trader said

Demand is considered weakest at Qingdao in the eastern Shandong province due to government-mandated production cuts and logistics restrictions ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (SCO Summit) on 9-10 June

As of 1 June the combined polyolefin inventories of Chinese petrochemical majors Sinopec and PetroChina have declined back to normal levels of 700000 tonnes from a high of 1m tonnes in early March market sources said

Import supply to China may not improve in the short term as suppliers still deem other

Back to Quick Navigation | 40Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

Back to Quick Navigation | 43Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 43: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

By Jonathan Lopez

ICIS NewsThe leading news service for real-time ground breaking news and analysis on the global petrochemicals markets

The ICIS News services give you unrivalled access to the most in-depth stories impacting the petrochemicals markets influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions

Our team of global editors are reporting around the clock to bring you the latest news and analysis so that you get the full picture of market and pricing developments first providing you with invaluable foresight to take advantage of every opportunity and to stay ahead of your competitors

With ICIS News you will be the first to read

Breaking news on the chemical markets that will impact your business

News on market moves deals and announcements that will affect your organisation

Force majeures closures and developments that influence your commodity prices

Expert analysis on industry trends and hot topics ndash know whatrsquos happening and why

Searchable archive with over 14 million articles from the past 10 years

Chemical Business News Base (CBNB) is a premium resource available on ICIS News It provides you with an extensive external source of upstream and downstream petrochemical news in summarised snapshots so you can quickly and easily get the latest updates on whatrsquos important to you

CBNB offers readers

Fast and consistent coverage on news facts figures from the upstream and downstream petrochemicals industry

Access to over 700 news sources including technical and trade journals company literature market research reports stockbroker reports books and directories

User-friendly search functionality to find articles most relevant to you from around the globe

Quick and easy-to-read summarised snapshots of articles with option to access full articles from the original source

ICIS Chemical Business digital magazine (ICB) Our global team of experts digests and summarises the key issues and their potential impact on the chemical markets offering a comprehensive overview of the key developments that matter most-along with informed opinion and in-depth analysis

ICB features include

In-depth insight into chemical price changes and their impact on the markets

Understand the detail behind the headline news stories

Find out about supply amp demand trends and the factors impacting them

Get the complete picture of the chemical markets ndash all in one e-magazine

Easy access via e-magazine and premium magazine website

Find out more wwwiciscomnews

ICIS News offers access to additional sources including the ICIS Chemical Business Magazine and Chemical Business News Base (CBNB)

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYPROPYLENE (PP)

SE ASIA PP PRICES MAY COME UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 AS SUPPLY LENGTHENSBy Leanne Tan

Southeast Asiarsquos polypropylene (PP) market may come under pressure in the second half of the year on account of lengthening regional supply and weak downstream demand

Spot prices have been on the rise for most of May buoyed by bullish sentiment in the Chinese market and firm upstream feedstock costs

Margins for PP makers have been lower on average compared with levels in the previous year

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refinery amp Petrochemicals is scheduled to start up its 400000 tonneyear PP production unit in the third quarter The project was initially scheduled to start up in the first quarter of 2018

While domestic demand will continue to outstrip local production the countryrsquos reliance on imports may be diminished when the new plant starts up

Converters in the country have been opting to keep inventories lean in the short term amid expectations that prices may eventually weaken when more domestic supply becomes available

ldquoBuyers donrsquot want to buy too much import cargoes now not just because prices are high but also because there will be more locally-produced materials very soonrdquo a Vietnamese trader said

In Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan is expected to start commercial production at its expanded PP facility in Pasir Gudang in June or July The plantrsquos capacity will be raised by 200000 tonnesyear from 400000 tonnesyear

Import availabilities from South Korea are expected to lengthen in the medium-to-long term with S-Oil expected to complete an olefin downstream complex (ODC) at its Onsan refinery in Ulsan which will include a

405000 tonneyear PP capacity

On the demand front weakness is likely to persist in the second half with converters and end-users likely to continue buying spot cargoes on a hand-to-mouth basis

Indonesiarsquos demand in particular has been below expectations since the start of 2018 and this is likely to continue in the second half of the year according to market players

Back to Quick Navigation | 39Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Some players said import demand for dutiable cargoes may increase in the second half of the year as this is typically when the government issues duty exemption facilities

The duty exemption facilities are issued on a yearly basis which enable converters to import some PP volumes without extra cost

In Malaysia the removal of the 6 goods and services tax (GST) so far has had no immediate impact on the PP market although there are some expectations the move could potentially boost demand in the consumer market further down the road

In Vietnam demand for PP flat yarn has entered a seasonal lull from May to early July and will not pick up until August when the summer harvest begins

PP is widely used in the manufacture of woven sacks (for rice sacks) flexible packaging carpets household appliances and automotive parts

Spot PP prices in southeast Asia have been an uptrend for most of the first half

The PP market begun the year on a bullish note with spot prices surging by almost 10 over the course of two months all-origins PP flat yarn prices peaked at $1295tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia on 2 March

Healthy demand in China helped to provide support to spot prices in southeast Asia in the first quarter with a tight global spot supply leading to further price escalations

Some suppliers pulled back from the southeast Asian spot market to capitalise on better netbacks in other countries including Japan and Pakistan leading to further curtailed spot availability in southeast Asia

The market rally started to lose steam in early March amid subdued demand and a build-up of domestic inventories in China after the Lunar New Year holidays

The bearish sentiment soon spilled over into southeast Asia with Chinese suppliers pushing some volumes into southeast Asia amid an open arbitrage window

Vietnam remains the market of choice for Chinese exporters and PP import prices in the country plummeted as the result of the lengthened spot availability

However the bearish run was short-lived and prices soon bottomed out in early April

Bullish momentum in the upstream crude and naphtha markets propelled spot prices of polymers higher

Despite lacklustre downstream demand price hikes in April and May were commonplace as producers sought higher asking prices in view of narrower margins

TIGHT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT CHINA PP MARKET DESPITE WEAK DEMANDBy Dora Xue

Tight supply would buoy up Chinarsquos polypropylene (PP) prices in the near term despite weak downstream demand

The market is expecting heavy production losses following recent unexpected outages at five domestic facilities from May and scheduled turnarounds at other plants

In the week ended on 1 June domestic prices for PP flat yarn in east China were assessed at Chinese yuan (CNY) 9075tonne after a steady increase from early April according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos import prices for the same material stood at $1245tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China largely tracking movement in the domestic market over the past two months according to ICIS data

The strong PP prices have also started to deter buyers from purchasing more spot cargoes

ldquoPP prices are too high We donrsquot want to store too much in our warehouserdquo a buyer said

Downstream demand typically goes on a lull in June and July but any downward pressure on prices will be negated by a further tightening of supply as major plants will be taken off line for maintenance

ldquoWhen the maintenance season finishes in late June [PP] prices may start to go downrdquo a trader said

Demand is considered weakest at Qingdao in the eastern Shandong province due to government-mandated production cuts and logistics restrictions ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (SCO Summit) on 9-10 June

As of 1 June the combined polyolefin inventories of Chinese petrochemical majors Sinopec and PetroChina have declined back to normal levels of 700000 tonnes from a high of 1m tonnes in early March market sources said

Import supply to China may not improve in the short term as suppliers still deem other

Back to Quick Navigation | 40Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

Back to Quick Navigation | 43Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 44: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

PLASTICSPOLYMERSPOLYPROPYLENE (PP)

SE ASIA PP PRICES MAY COME UNDER PRESSURE IN H2 AS SUPPLY LENGTHENSBy Leanne Tan

Southeast Asiarsquos polypropylene (PP) market may come under pressure in the second half of the year on account of lengthening regional supply and weak downstream demand

Spot prices have been on the rise for most of May buoyed by bullish sentiment in the Chinese market and firm upstream feedstock costs

Margins for PP makers have been lower on average compared with levels in the previous year

In Vietnam Nghi Son Refinery amp Petrochemicals is scheduled to start up its 400000 tonneyear PP production unit in the third quarter The project was initially scheduled to start up in the first quarter of 2018

While domestic demand will continue to outstrip local production the countryrsquos reliance on imports may be diminished when the new plant starts up

Converters in the country have been opting to keep inventories lean in the short term amid expectations that prices may eventually weaken when more domestic supply becomes available

ldquoBuyers donrsquot want to buy too much import cargoes now not just because prices are high but also because there will be more locally-produced materials very soonrdquo a Vietnamese trader said

In Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan is expected to start commercial production at its expanded PP facility in Pasir Gudang in June or July The plantrsquos capacity will be raised by 200000 tonnesyear from 400000 tonnesyear

Import availabilities from South Korea are expected to lengthen in the medium-to-long term with S-Oil expected to complete an olefin downstream complex (ODC) at its Onsan refinery in Ulsan which will include a

405000 tonneyear PP capacity

On the demand front weakness is likely to persist in the second half with converters and end-users likely to continue buying spot cargoes on a hand-to-mouth basis

Indonesiarsquos demand in particular has been below expectations since the start of 2018 and this is likely to continue in the second half of the year according to market players

Back to Quick Navigation | 39Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Some players said import demand for dutiable cargoes may increase in the second half of the year as this is typically when the government issues duty exemption facilities

The duty exemption facilities are issued on a yearly basis which enable converters to import some PP volumes without extra cost

In Malaysia the removal of the 6 goods and services tax (GST) so far has had no immediate impact on the PP market although there are some expectations the move could potentially boost demand in the consumer market further down the road

In Vietnam demand for PP flat yarn has entered a seasonal lull from May to early July and will not pick up until August when the summer harvest begins

PP is widely used in the manufacture of woven sacks (for rice sacks) flexible packaging carpets household appliances and automotive parts

Spot PP prices in southeast Asia have been an uptrend for most of the first half

The PP market begun the year on a bullish note with spot prices surging by almost 10 over the course of two months all-origins PP flat yarn prices peaked at $1295tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia on 2 March

Healthy demand in China helped to provide support to spot prices in southeast Asia in the first quarter with a tight global spot supply leading to further price escalations

Some suppliers pulled back from the southeast Asian spot market to capitalise on better netbacks in other countries including Japan and Pakistan leading to further curtailed spot availability in southeast Asia

The market rally started to lose steam in early March amid subdued demand and a build-up of domestic inventories in China after the Lunar New Year holidays

The bearish sentiment soon spilled over into southeast Asia with Chinese suppliers pushing some volumes into southeast Asia amid an open arbitrage window

Vietnam remains the market of choice for Chinese exporters and PP import prices in the country plummeted as the result of the lengthened spot availability

However the bearish run was short-lived and prices soon bottomed out in early April

Bullish momentum in the upstream crude and naphtha markets propelled spot prices of polymers higher

Despite lacklustre downstream demand price hikes in April and May were commonplace as producers sought higher asking prices in view of narrower margins

TIGHT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT CHINA PP MARKET DESPITE WEAK DEMANDBy Dora Xue

Tight supply would buoy up Chinarsquos polypropylene (PP) prices in the near term despite weak downstream demand

The market is expecting heavy production losses following recent unexpected outages at five domestic facilities from May and scheduled turnarounds at other plants

In the week ended on 1 June domestic prices for PP flat yarn in east China were assessed at Chinese yuan (CNY) 9075tonne after a steady increase from early April according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos import prices for the same material stood at $1245tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China largely tracking movement in the domestic market over the past two months according to ICIS data

The strong PP prices have also started to deter buyers from purchasing more spot cargoes

ldquoPP prices are too high We donrsquot want to store too much in our warehouserdquo a buyer said

Downstream demand typically goes on a lull in June and July but any downward pressure on prices will be negated by a further tightening of supply as major plants will be taken off line for maintenance

ldquoWhen the maintenance season finishes in late June [PP] prices may start to go downrdquo a trader said

Demand is considered weakest at Qingdao in the eastern Shandong province due to government-mandated production cuts and logistics restrictions ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (SCO Summit) on 9-10 June

As of 1 June the combined polyolefin inventories of Chinese petrochemical majors Sinopec and PetroChina have declined back to normal levels of 700000 tonnes from a high of 1m tonnes in early March market sources said

Import supply to China may not improve in the short term as suppliers still deem other

Back to Quick Navigation | 40Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

Back to Quick Navigation | 43Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 45: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

Some players said import demand for dutiable cargoes may increase in the second half of the year as this is typically when the government issues duty exemption facilities

The duty exemption facilities are issued on a yearly basis which enable converters to import some PP volumes without extra cost

In Malaysia the removal of the 6 goods and services tax (GST) so far has had no immediate impact on the PP market although there are some expectations the move could potentially boost demand in the consumer market further down the road

In Vietnam demand for PP flat yarn has entered a seasonal lull from May to early July and will not pick up until August when the summer harvest begins

PP is widely used in the manufacture of woven sacks (for rice sacks) flexible packaging carpets household appliances and automotive parts

Spot PP prices in southeast Asia have been an uptrend for most of the first half

The PP market begun the year on a bullish note with spot prices surging by almost 10 over the course of two months all-origins PP flat yarn prices peaked at $1295tonne CFR (cost amp freight) southeast (SE) Asia on 2 March

Healthy demand in China helped to provide support to spot prices in southeast Asia in the first quarter with a tight global spot supply leading to further price escalations

Some suppliers pulled back from the southeast Asian spot market to capitalise on better netbacks in other countries including Japan and Pakistan leading to further curtailed spot availability in southeast Asia

The market rally started to lose steam in early March amid subdued demand and a build-up of domestic inventories in China after the Lunar New Year holidays

The bearish sentiment soon spilled over into southeast Asia with Chinese suppliers pushing some volumes into southeast Asia amid an open arbitrage window

Vietnam remains the market of choice for Chinese exporters and PP import prices in the country plummeted as the result of the lengthened spot availability

However the bearish run was short-lived and prices soon bottomed out in early April

Bullish momentum in the upstream crude and naphtha markets propelled spot prices of polymers higher

Despite lacklustre downstream demand price hikes in April and May were commonplace as producers sought higher asking prices in view of narrower margins

TIGHT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT CHINA PP MARKET DESPITE WEAK DEMANDBy Dora Xue

Tight supply would buoy up Chinarsquos polypropylene (PP) prices in the near term despite weak downstream demand

The market is expecting heavy production losses following recent unexpected outages at five domestic facilities from May and scheduled turnarounds at other plants

In the week ended on 1 June domestic prices for PP flat yarn in east China were assessed at Chinese yuan (CNY) 9075tonne after a steady increase from early April according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos import prices for the same material stood at $1245tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China largely tracking movement in the domestic market over the past two months according to ICIS data

The strong PP prices have also started to deter buyers from purchasing more spot cargoes

ldquoPP prices are too high We donrsquot want to store too much in our warehouserdquo a buyer said

Downstream demand typically goes on a lull in June and July but any downward pressure on prices will be negated by a further tightening of supply as major plants will be taken off line for maintenance

ldquoWhen the maintenance season finishes in late June [PP] prices may start to go downrdquo a trader said

Demand is considered weakest at Qingdao in the eastern Shandong province due to government-mandated production cuts and logistics restrictions ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (SCO Summit) on 9-10 June

As of 1 June the combined polyolefin inventories of Chinese petrochemical majors Sinopec and PetroChina have declined back to normal levels of 700000 tonnes from a high of 1m tonnes in early March market sources said

Import supply to China may not improve in the short term as suppliers still deem other

Back to Quick Navigation | 40Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

Back to Quick Navigation | 43Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 46: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

markets to be more lucrative including southeast Asia and Europe where prices are higher and the US where supply is tight

Prices of PP flat yarn in southeast Asia at $1305tonne CFR on 1 June were higher by $60tonne compared with Chinarsquos import prices according to ICIS data

Chinarsquos actual PP import volumes in February and March were lower on a year-on-year basis based on official data while April imports also registered a decline according to market sources

Back to Quick Navigation | 41Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

Back to Quick Navigation | 43Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 47: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

Request your free sample report

Request a demo

Request a free sample report now

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook Available for key chemical commodities

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for key Asian trading regions like India northeast and southeast Asia Our reports provide expert commentary historical prices and access to time-sensitive offers bids and price movements to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions and settle contract prices confidently

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian polypropylene (PP) markets

Back to Quick Navigation | 42Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

Back to Quick Navigation | 43Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 48: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

RUBBERSTYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER (SBR)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR MAY WEIGH ON ASIA SBR DEMAND IN H2by Helen Yan

Asiarsquos styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand is expected to grow in the second half of the year with its spot price to be impacted by the key feedstock butadiene (BD) price movements

Barring any fallout from a looming full-scale trade war between China and the US SBR prices are expected to hold steady in the third quarter and likely to trend up in the fourth quarter on robust demand and higher feedstock BD cost

The escalating trade spat between China and the US may however throw a spanner in the works and demand for SBR may not materialise as expected amid an increasingly bearish market sentiment

Earlier this year US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods

The tariffs affecting over 800 products include aircraft tyres and are due to come into effect on 6 July

Although natural rubber (NR) is the key ingredient in aircraft tyre production shrinking Chinese demand for NR will likely weigh down its price and inadvertently impact the SBR price

NR and SBR are substitute feedstocks in the production of tyres for the automotive industry and their price movements tend to impact each other

SBR prices have been under downward pressure because of the recent fall in the feedstock BD and NR prices

On 13 June non-oil grade 1502 SBR prices fell to $1875tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia down by $25tonne from the previous week amid falling feedstock BD and NR prices

Back to Quick Navigation | 43Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 49: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

The feedstock BD price had fallen to $1725tonne CFR NE (northeast) Asia on 8 June down by $75tonne since 25 May ICIS data showed

The NR price has also been trending down with the SMR20 tyre grade price falling to $1360tonne FOB (free on board) on 18 June down from $1490tonne FOB in late May

A trade war between the US and China will likely lead to dwindling Chinese demand for SBR as a cheaper NR price will result in Chinese tyre producers continuing to use more NR at the expense of SBR

Tyre producers in emerging economies

in Asia have more flexibility in feedstock substitution in their product formulations

China is the worldrsquos largest automotive market and a major tyre production hub in Asia

A full-blown trade war between China the worldrsquos second largest economy and the US the worldrsquos largest economy and major car manufacturer will dampen market sentiment and impact the price trends of SBR in Asia

If the trade spat however does not blow up into a full-scale trade war and a trade war is averted supply demand balance shifts and the key feedstock BD price

movements will be the major factors in determining the SBR price trend in the second half of the year

Production cutbacks and SBR plant turnarounds in the third quarter will see SBR prices holding steady in the third quarter while a heavy cracker turnaround and expected spike in the key feedstock BD cost will likely bolster the SBR price uptrend in the fourth quarter

If however the NR price continues to remain weak in the fourth quarter this may temper any significant price increase in the SBR price despite the expected spike in the feedstock BD price towards the end of the year

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian SBR markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 44Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 50: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

SOLVENTSACETONE amp PHENOL

ASIA PHENOL ACETONE IMPORT SENTIMENT TO SOFTEN ON IMPROVED SUPPLY IN H2 2018By Yaw Min Jie

Asia phenol and acetone import sentiment is likely to soften as a result of improved supply in the region in the second half of the year

The spate of turnarounds that took place in the first half of the year as well as peak seasonal demand for solvents was responsible for supporting prices a trend unlikely to continue

The phenol CFR (cost amp freight) CMP (China main port) price hit an intra-year high on 20 April at $1375tonne which is an increase of 127 from a month earlier

The acetone CFR CMP price also peaked at an intra-year high at $720tonne CFR CMP which is up 161 from a month earlier

The intra-year highs reached in April for the phenol CFR CMP price are the same as the level hit on 22 December 2017 which is also the highest level since H1 December 2014 according to ICIS data

In comparison acetone CFR CMP prices fell by 12 from the start of the year but began to pick up from the end of March

Market participants attributed the increase in prices for both acetone and phenol from the end of March due to the spate of turnarounds that began at the time

Supply from the Middle East increased in the second half of the year with Petro Rabighrsquos phenol acetone unit in Saudi Arabia operating at full rates since its restart according to market participants

Within China phenol supply is slated to improve from June onwards with the restart of major domestic plants

Formosa Petrochemicalrsquos phenolacetone plant in Ningbo is currently shut for maintenance

Cepsa Chemicalrsquos plant in Shanghai meanwhile will be shut for a turnaround from 25 May to 10 June and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemicalrsquos plant is undergoing maintenance from 5 May to 18 June

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear

phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

A major plant in Taiwan has ramped up operating rates to around 70 from below 60 of capacity since its restart in late March

The expected restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to

Back to Quick Navigation | 45Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 51: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

increase supply Mitsui Phenol Singapore has also restarted its plant since 18 May

In the first half of the year phenol demand has been supported by positive downstream bisphenol-A (BPA) and healthy caprolactam margins

The BPA-phenol spread peaked at $540tonne in May which is more than double that of the required $250tonne to breakeven

The benzene-phenol spread has averaged above $480tonne since the start of the year which is more than triple than the required $150tonne to break even

ldquoWith the BPA-phenol spread and the phenol-benzene spread so healthy phenol producers will run at full rates and this will result in greater oversupply of acetone as wellrdquo an international trader said

Phenolrsquos demand outlook in China is mixed as some market participants off take to be slower than usual in the near term

They cite strict environmental inspections at downstream factories in Jiangsu and at various downstream plants in Shandong as the main reason for a slowdown in demand

The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao in June was also partly

responsible for lower operating rates at several petrochemical plants including phenol and acetone

An ongoing plant turnaround at Covestrorsquos 400000 tonneyear bisphenol A (BPA) unit in Shanghai has also further contributed to the low demand

In the near term acetone and phenols downstream consumption is weighed down by the ongoing environmental inspections at downstream plants in Shandong and Jiangsu

The restart of PTTrsquos phenolacetone unit in mid-June is also expected to increase supply

Chinarsquos CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC) has already begun commercial sales and delivery of phenol and acetone cargoes from its new 220000 tonneyear phenol unit and a 130000 tonneyear acetone units since the end of May

Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian phenolacetone markets

Request your free sample report

PRICING INFORMATIONICIS is the benchmark for independent and reliable price assessments for over 180 commodities in Asia Our reports provides the information you need to help you understand key price drivers and market conditions make better informed decisions as well as to enable you to settle contract prices confidently

bull Spot and contract assessments

bull Market commentary on trends and business developments

bull Transactions reported and confirmed

bull Plant and production news

PETROCHEMICALS ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS Providing our customers with a 360-degree view of the market ICIS complements each pricing subscription with these powerful tools

bull Live Supply Disruption Tracker ndash real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months plus the impact of these changes

bull Price Drivers Analytics ndash key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data

bull A Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook

Available for key chemical commodities

Request a free sample report nowRequest a demo

DEDICATED INTELLIGENCE FOR CHINA Available in English and Chinese we provide pricing data and key insights into price trends in the domestic market to help support your short-term decisions negotiations and analyses for your businesses both domestically and internationally with coverage on all of the following

bull Import export and domestic spot and contract prices

bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets changes in government policies

bull Data on inventory levels and price margins

bull Plant and production news

Back to Quick Navigation | 46Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report Content published between December 2017 to January 2018

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm

Page 52: ASIA MID-YEAR REVIEW & OUTLOOK · • Acetone & Phenol. Unparalleled pricing and analytical coverage to help you navigate Asian chemical markets . Request your free sample report

Supply and Demand Database

Single searchable source of historical data on global petrochemical and energy markets

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including re neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption

Request a one-to-one demo now enquiryiciscomwwwiciscomsupplydemanddata

Historical and forecast data (1978-2040) Over 100 petrochemical products Over 12000 re nery units Over 18500 petrochemical plants Import export and consumption volumes Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects Data breakdown by country region product or product family GDP population and consumer price index by country

2040

ICIS Supply amp Demand Database A4 Adindd 1 5917 457 pm