as russian sanctions tighten, what are the major repercussions for the sector?

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Page 1: As Russian sanctions tighten, what are the major repercussions for the sector?
Page 2: As Russian sanctions tighten, what are the major repercussions for the sector?

As Russian Sanctions Tighten, What are the Major Repercussions for the Sector?

CHAIR Nelli Sharushkina - Bureau Chief, Moscow Energy Intelligence

Monica Enfield - Director of Research, Energy Intelligence

Nick Gee - Partner, Buckthorn Partners

Chris Weafer - Founding Partner, Macro Advisory

Page 3: As Russian sanctions tighten, what are the major repercussions for the sector?

Nick Gee

Partner

Buckthorn Partners

As Russian Sanctions Tighten, What are the Major Repercussions for the Sector?

Page 4: As Russian sanctions tighten, what are the major repercussions for the sector?

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19851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013

RussianOilProductionandGlobalOilPrice

OilProductionMbd OilPrice$2013Real

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014

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Page 5: As Russian sanctions tighten, what are the major repercussions for the sector?

Monica Enfield

Director of Research

Energy Intelligence

As Russian Sanctions Tighten, What are the Major Repercussions for the Sector?

Page 6: As Russian sanctions tighten, what are the major repercussions for the sector?

Russia: Sanctions and Company Strategy Impact

Minimal production risk at present due to limited sanctions scope

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BP* Total Shell ExxonMobil Eni Repsol Statoil

mboe/d Russia: Oil & Gas Equity Production

(2013)

Share of

global

company

production

31.7% 1.9% 4.5% 0.6%6.9% 5.0% 2.1%

980‒ Limited immediate impact on

Western firms’ near-term production

outlook, given sanctions focus on

unconventional and difficult reserves

‒ Impact on equity production in

Russia can be offset through the

majors’ near-term net growth plans

from a global project queue.

‒ Majors are pursuing complex plays

across the globe as part of a longer-

term strategy to access resources.

Source: Energy Intelligence, Evaluate Energy, Company data. *BP data reflects 2H13-1H14 data—the most recent data available since combined accounting.

Page 7: As Russian sanctions tighten, what are the major repercussions for the sector?

Base Production

Rosneft Equity Tight Oil

Sakhalin-I Arctic

Yamal Fields Yamal LNGTight Oil Shtokman

Yamal Fields

AROG JV

Sakhalin-II

Salym EOR

Exploration Appraisal Development New Resource Production

Arctic

Tight Oil

Arctic

Tight Oil

Arctic

Black Sea

Tight Oil

Black Sea

Nearly all the initiatives

and partnerships for new

challenging plays between

the majors and Russian

firms are still in an initial

exploration stage.

Russia: Sanctions and Company Strategy Impact

New partnerships represent long-term resource access options