CoP16/CMP6, Cancun

Reflections on Cancun & The way forward

23 March 2011, Budapest

Artur Runge-MetzgerDirector, DG CLIMA

European Commission

Outline

• What were the challenges ahead of Cancun?• What has happened in Cancun?• What should happen in 2011?

– Implementation PLUS– Inside the EU

• Conclusions

Challenges after Copenhagen

• Stakes were high after Copenhagen• The process was in bad shape and trust was

lacking• EU expectations: « step-wise » approach, i.e.

balanced package capturing progress made thus far and allowing for concrete action

• These expectations were broadly met: Consensus - 1

• However, it is not the end of the road but we are back on track!

The Cancun Agreements:A balanced package

• Decisions address all key issues– ‘Convention track’ (LCA): 2 degrees objective, anchoring of pledges,

Monitoring, Reporting & Verification, adaptation, finance, technology transfer and capacity-building, review

– ‘Kyoto track’ (KP): anchoring of pledges, base year, LULUCF

• Important milestone for multilateral climate action…– Integrates political guidance of the Copenhagen Accord into the

official UN process– Significant progress on new and old rulebook– Sound basis for action – adaptation, technology, deforestation,

capacity building to be supported with ‘fast-start finance– Further development of the global climate governance system (eg

new committees, Green Fund)

The Cancun Agreement:Gaps (1)

• Key issue of legal form left open in Cancun– “Legal options with the aim to complete an agreed outcome”– 2nd commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol

• Other– New market mechanisms– Aviation and maritime transport– HFC– Agriculture– Finance (after Fast-start finance)

The Cancun Agreement:Gaps (2)

32

36

40

44

48

52

56

60

1990 2000 2010 2020G

loba

l em

issi

ons

(Gt C

O2e

q)Additional efforts on top of existingCPH pledges

Emissions after implementation

pledges

32

36

40

44

48

52

56

60

1990 2000 2010 2020

Glo

bal e

mis

sion

s (G

t CO

2eq)

Uncertainties: accounting, doublecounting, conditionality

Emissions after implementation

pledges

32

36

40

44

48

52

56

60

1990 2000 2010 2020

Glo

bal e

mis

sion

s (G

t CO

2eq)

Impact high end pledges under theCopenhagen accord

Emissions after implementation

pledges

2ºC range2ºC range 2ºC range

32

36

40

44

48

52

56

60

1990 2000 2010 2020G

loba

l em

issi

ons

(Gt C

O2e

q)Additional efforts on top of existingCPH pledges

Emissions after implementation

pledges

32

36

40

44

48

52

56

60

1990 2000 2010 2020

Glo

bal e

mis

sion

s (G

t CO

2eq)

Uncertainties: accounting, doublecounting, conditionality

Emissions after implementation

pledges

32

36

40

44

48

52

56

60

1990 2000 2010 2020

Glo

bal e

mis

sion

s (G

t CO

2eq)

Impact high end pledges under theCopenhagen accord

Emissions after implementation

pledges

2ºC range2ºC range 2ºC range

• Level of ambition: UNDP - 60% of what is necessary • Peaking: IPCC - before 2020• Global emissions in 2050: IPCC – 50% cp to 1990

What should happen in 2011?Implementation First

• Turn pledges into domestic policies• Develop Low Emission Development Strategies • Set-up domestic Monitoring, Reporting, and

Verification systems (capacity building!), registry• Put International Consultation and Analysis in place• Operationalise of the Green Fund (Transitional

Committee)• Implement Adaptation Committee, Technology

Executive Board• Improve carbon market: e.g. CDM including carbon

capture and storage• Link Fast-Start Finance to implementation of

Cancun Accord

What should happen in 2011 ?PLUS

• Kyoto Protocol 2nd commitment period• Closing the gap: peak, long term goal,

ambition• Long-term finance, notably on sources• Carbon markets: develop new sectoral

mechanism• Addressing missing issues: HFCs, aviation

and maritime transport, agriculture• Legal form

– EU like many others in favour of a legally binding agreement but issue will remain divisive

– Build on Kyoto Acquis• Review starting in 2013

Future of Kyoto:

Some details • EU would prefer a global legally binding deal, but developed

countries push for second commitment period

• EU ready to consider 2nd commitment period – if environmental flaws are addressed

• Carry over of AAU (emission rights): around 11Gt ~ 2.5 times annual EU27 emissions

• LULUCF– If other major economies do similar efforts

• Kyoto covers <30% ofglobal emissions

Climate change finance

• UNFCCC Secretariat will compile annual reports on fast start finance from mid 2011

• Establish the Green Climate Fund : detailed structures to be developed by interim committee

• Creates Standing Committee on climate finance• Recognize goal of developed countries to mobilise jointly

US$ 100 billion per year by 2020 (in the context of mitigation action) – but sources unknown yet!

What should happen in 2011?Meeting schedule

• Informal ministerial meeting, 23-24 March • Ad-hoc Working Groups, April 3-8, Bangkok• Subsidiary Bodies & Ad-hoc Working Groups, June

6-17, Bonn• Ad-hoc Working Groups, September/October???• COP17, November 28 – December 9, Durban

• G8, 26-27 May• G20, 3-4 Nov

What should happen in 2011 ?Inside the EU - Implementation

• EU on track to meet its Kyoto target (2008-2012)• Broad legislation in place for 2020, which still needs to be

fully implemented, including– Implementation: EU Emissions Trading System (3rd phase preparation, e.g.

benchmarks for industry, auctioning platform); Effort Sharing Decision (preparatory work for 2013-2020); Engine efficiency; Fuel Quality Directive

– Proposals: White paper on transport (March); Energy Efficiency Action Plan (March); Multi-Annual Financial Framework 2014-2020 (mid 2011), Land use, land use change and Forestry (mid 2011), Revision of Monitoring Mechanism Decision (mid 2011)

– Preparatory work: Heavy Duty Vehicles, Maritime transport– Review: F-gases – Reporting: Fast-start Funding (May); Technical report (May/June), Progress

report (October)• Going beyond 20%: analysis and discussion in Council• Collaborative action with partners (adaptation, technology,

REDD+, capacity building)

What should happen in 2011 ?Inside the EU – Roadmap 2050

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Current policy

Power Sector

Residential & Tertiary

Non CO2 Other Sectors

Industry

Transport

Non CO2 Agriculture

80% domestic reduction in 2050 is feasible with currently available

technologies, with behavioural change

only induced through prices

If all economic sectors contribute to a varying degree & pace.

Efficient pathway:-25% in 2020-40% in 2030-60% in 2040

Conclusions

• Cancun has delivered, process back on track• Time for implementation of Cancun pledges. The EU is

working full steam on this.• Still climate change problem is not solved, a lot on our

plate to get to a legally binding framework• Essential to maintain the « Cancun spirit » to feed in the

way to Durban and later• However, the « global politics » of climate change have

not become easier• EU needs to remain determined, further intensify our

bilateral contacts/climate diplomacy to keep everybody on board

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For further information:

http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/brief/eu/index_en.htm