7/27/2019 art%3A10.1134%2FS1019331609010067

1/5

45

ISSN 1019-3316, Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 2009, Vol. 79, No. 1, pp. 4549. Pleiades Publishing, Ltd., 2009.Original Russian Text K.S. Losev, 2009, published in Vestnik Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk, 2009, Vol. 79, No. 1, pp. 3640.

The problem of global warming has been gainingmomentum, especially against the backdrop of verywarm years in the late 1990s and early 2000s, since the1992 conference in Rio de Janeiro, which adopted theUN Framework Convention on Climate Change. TheKyoto Protocol has been discussed since the mid-1990s, and Russia finally signed it, which made itsimplementation possible. Then the European Uniondiscussed this problem, and A. Merkels proposals on adrastic, compared to the Kyoto Protocol recommenda-tions, 20% reduction in anthropogenic emissions by theEU countries were adopted. The pinnacle was 2007,when global warming became one of the two key issuesat the conference of the Pacific Rim countries. Then theNobel Peace Prize was awarded to A. Gore and theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and,finally, a conference, held on Bali Island in Indonesia,was dedicated to reduction in greenhouse gas emis-sions, primarily industrial, and to the attraction ofdeveloping countries and refusers, the United Statesand Canada, to this process. The above activities havelined up a strategy of global warming control aimed attechnological methods of reducing industrial carbondioxide emissions. The choice of such a strategy cannotbe considered optimal since it is one-sided and does notaccount for the majority of problems related to globalwarming.

The first problem is uncertainty about the realanthropogenic contribution to the warming valuerecorded. No doubt, there is such a contribution, but it

overlaps the natural fluctuations of the average globalnear-the-ground air temperature and prevents us fromseparating the anthropogenic component and assigninga reference point, because all meteorological stationsof the world record the temperature of the near-the-ground atmospheric layer, which already includes theanthropogenic component.

The second problem is climate change forecastsfor certain years of the 21st century (2025, 2030, 2050,etc.). These forecasts are based on modeling futuretemperature increases as a result of anthropogenicemissions. The suggested models (there are more than100) use wide-ranging assumptions; variables aretransformed into parameters; loosely justified valuesare assigned; and not all components of the climaticsystem are taken into account.

The third problem is related to the fact that now thestrategy of reducing anthropogenic pressure on naturetakes into account mainly industrial carbon emissions.Meanwhile, enough data have been gathered to show alarge contribution of human economic activity to thedestruction of ecosystems.

The fourth and most important problem is the needto account for the natural ecosystems role in regulatingCO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. The leading roleamong them in supporting the level of carbon dioxideand oxygen concentrations optimal for the existing lifeand humanity is played by forest ecosystems on landand by the biological pump in the ocean [1].

First, the interrelation of the above problems is note-worthy. The strategy of reducing carbon emission mustrest on the above problems and their interrelation andkeep prioritization in mind; and it must not deal solelywith the reduction of industrial carbon emission and theuse of mainly technological measures.

The first problem is the starting point for makingcritical decisions proposed by the Kyoto Protocol andfollow-up actions initiated by the European Union,although the precise contribution of anthropogenictemperature stress has not yet been clarified. It is alsoknown that there are opponents to the concept ofanthropogenic impact on global warming. Here isanother argument to support this concept. A high-preci-sion analysis of carbon dioxide concentrations in theprevious interglacials shows that the temperature peakin all cases was reached at CO

2

concentrations of 268ppm (parts per million) and then a transfer to glaciationbegan. The last interglacial, the Holocene, witnessed

Environmental Problems

The current strategy of global warming control is discussed. The advantages and drawbacks of this strategy areanalyzed. The conclusion is made that a reduction in the industrial emission of carbon dioxide is not enough tostop temperature growth on our planet.

DOI: 10.1134/S1019331609010067

Paradoxes of Global Warming Control

K. S. Losev*

*Kim Semenovich Losev, Dr. Sci. (Geogr.) is chief research fellowat the All-Russia Institute of Scientific and Technical Informa-tion, RAS.

7/27/2019 art%3A10.1134%2FS1019331609010067

2/5

7/27/2019 art%3A10.1134%2FS1019331609010067

3/5

HERALD OF THE RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

Vol. 79

No. 1

2009

PARADOXES OF GLOBAL WARMING CONTROL 47

and came to the conclusion that the main cause was car-bon dioxide emissions due to the combustion and cut-ting of forest ecosystems and replacing them with plowlands and pastures during the formation of agriculturalcivilization. Before 1800, the preindustrial emission ofcarbon due to forest combustion was 320 billion tons.Temporary decreases of 510 ppm in CO

2

concentra-tions over the preindustrial period, measured in the ice

cores, are explained by periods of significant popula-tion reductions as a result of large regional epidemicsand pandemics. If we take into account the growingconcentrations of methane in the same period, thecumulative warming effect was about 0.8

C by 1800.This warming veiled a cooling trend caused by reducedsummer insolation owing to the regular periods of theplanets axial tilts and precession, which led to the Lit-tle Ice Age. It is assumed that, in the absence of the pre-industrial anthropogenic stress on the greenhouseeffect, the next glaciation might have started during theLittle Ice Age in Canada [5]. Forest burning and cuttingsharply accelerated in the industrial period. The area ofarable land doubled from 750 million to 1500 million

hectares over the 20th century. In the 1980s, differentauthors estimated that CO

2

emissions increased from1.5 billion to 2.4 billion tons per year owing to the cut-ting of tropical forests [6]. However, in addition to theforest cuttings recorded, there is unrecorded consump-tion of wood and bioorganic matter: firewood and char-coal, the production of which is not always accompa-nied by clear felling or tree felling, and the burning ofagricultural waste. The estimations of these compo-nents for the early 1990s are given in the table [7].

If we add the previously given estimates of emis-sions resulting from forest cutting to the summary datafrom the table, the result will at least equal the indus-trial emission. In [8] the calculation based on carbonemission and sink shows that emission due to thedestruction of ecosystems and constant pressure onthem is no less than that from industrial sources. How-ever, part of this emission is compensated for the nextyear by the growth of new crops, which requires addi-tional research into the emissionsink balance. Theabove estimates of carbon dioxide emissions owing tobiomass destruction change significantly theapproaches to anthropogenic stress on global warming,including the values of emission, sink, and input datafor calculation and modeling.

The fourth problem, which appears to be the mostimportant, is the regulating role of natural ecosystems,where land forest ecosystems take the lead in sustaininga certain level of carbon dioxide concentrations andoxygen optimal for life. No less important a role is alsoplayed by the biological pump of the ocean, mentionedabove. Ocean ecosystems are currently undisturbed ordisturbed slightly. It has long been clear that forest eco-systems serve as a sink not only for industrial but alsofor total anthropogenic (industrial and living biomassdestruction) emissions. In this connection, the proposed

strategy of global warming control includes an increasein forest ranges, but the initial crucial step must be astop to total forest cutting and the allocation of territo-ries for natural reforestation. Meanwhile, the currentstrategy includes the opposite measures: the growing ofcultivated plants for motor fuel or additives to it, which

will require additional territories or a reduction in foodproduction, the per capita value of which has beendecreasing since 1984. As for the creation of artificialforest cover, represented by plantings and plantations,they will indeed consume CO

2

from the atmosphere;however, if it is a commercial plantation, the trees willfinally be felled, and all carbon consumed by them willagain be emitted to the atmosphere. Artificial planta-tions cannot serve as the regulators of carbon dioxideand biogens; only natural forest ecosystemsthe sur-viving or slightly disturbed ecosystems of boreal for-ests mainly in Russia and Canada and tropical forests inAmazonia and Africaperform this function.

Analysis of the currently discussed strategy ofreducing anthropogenic stress on global warming isincomplete and insufficiently objective, and the strat-egy itself often does not cover all problems, amongwhich is the problem of regulating CO

2

concentrationsby natural ecosystems. The existing strategic solutionsdeal mainly with the process of reducing industrialemissions. To this end, different methods are proposedon the basis of the observed and anticipated growth ofglobal energy consumption; therefore, a transfer toalternative energy sources, which do not form green-house gas emissions, and technologies that improve theefficiency of the use of fossil fuel energy are being con-sidered very actively at present. The representatives of

the windmill industry in the EU countries activelylobby wind power and study the possibility of improv-ing the performance of solar batteries and reducingtheir cost. As for the other alternative sources, they areeither localized (thermal and tidal energy) or lack reli-able and cheap engineering and technological solu-tions. If these sources were competitive, they wouldhave long ago replaced the majority of fossil fuels.

The use of renewable fuels produced from cultivatedplants (sugar cane, rapeseed, corn, etc.) has started

Global carbon emission owing to biomass destruction, mil-lion t/yr

Type of biomass MassCarbon

emission

Savanna 3690 1660

Agricultural waste 2020 910

Tropical forests 1260 570

Wood combustion 1430 640

Moderate boreal forests 280 130

Charcoal 20 30

Total 8700 3940

7/27/2019 art%3A10.1134%2FS1019331609010067

4/5

48

HERALD OF THE RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

Vol. 79

No. 1

2009

LOSEV

recently. This is, in fact, the use of food resources,which seems sacrilegiously amoral in the presence ofabout 800 million hungry people in the world; in addi-tion, these fuels also discharge carbon. Their produc-tion would need additional land areas, which can bemade available only by destroying natural ecosystems,i.e., by discharging additional carbon dioxide into theatmosphere.

Taking into account the above share of alternativesources in the global power industry, we may hardlyexpect a substantial decrease in fossil fuel consumptionthrough their use. Therefore, countries that possessnuclear technology and that had abandoned furtherconstruction of nuclear power plants after the Cherno-byl disaster have started to lobby actively the expansionof their nuclear power industries. The nuclear lobby isespecially proactive in countries that lack large fossilfuel reserves, for example, in Japan [4]. This is also away to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. However,nuclear power implies many other problems, in partic-ular, the problem of nuclear waste and global security.

This path of development will make the creation ofnuclear weapons easier for certain countries andnuclear weapons and nuclear materials readily avail-able for terrorists. We may expect the beginning of anew phase of growth in the number of nuclear reactorsin the world, and this phase will probably last until anew Chernobyl.

There are no great expectations for thermonuclearpower so far. Hydrogen power with its energy derivedfrom water is similar to

perpetuum mobile

, since hydro-gen separation needs more power than that generatedby hydrogen produced like that. The problem of secu-rity has also not been solved for this power generationmethod. A more efficient use of fossil fuel is also envis-aged. From 1950 through 2000, developed countriesreduced their fuel costs per unit by 41%, but, at thesame time, CO

2

emission over the last decade of the20th century increased by 9.2% in these countries andby 13% in the United States [3]. The above facts raiseserious doubts about the ability to reduce carbon emis-sions by 20% in the foreseeable future, as proposed bythe European Union. In addition, the cost of such areduction has not been determined clearly (50 billioneuros has been mentioned so far). Narrow technologi-cal approaches are insufficient and often incorrect, asthey imply the economic interest of developed coun-tries in commercial sales of such technologies to other

countries.When prioritizing strategic solutions to this prob-

lem, the most important step would be the establish-ment of a UN International Fund for the Preservationand Expansion of Virgin Forests, whose goal would bean increase in their area by the self-regeneration oftropical and boreal forest ecosystems. Such anapproach will need the restructuring of the forestry sec-tor, which is considered to have forests under its con-trol. This beautiful word implies forest cutting, dis-

turbing the natural cycle of biogens, and, under the ratioof forest cutting to forest regeneration being 10 : 1,additional carbon emissions. Let us take two examplesthat characterize such control. Foresters use the term

old forest. This notion is unacceptable for natural for-ests. Virgin forests have been existing for thousands andtens of thousands of years, and we may conventionallyconsider them immortal. Another term

debris-

strewn forest

, which needs cleaningalso belongs tovirgin forests. In reality, the debris (leaf fall, fruits, deadlimbs, windfall, dead trees, etc.) are an essential part ofthe natural cycle of biogens.

The second in importance strategic objective ofwarming control is to preserve the most important nat-ural regulator of CO

2

concentrations in the atmo-

spherestill undisturbed ecosystems of the worldocean, which is a sink for anthropogenic carbon. Nodoubt, we must improve the performance of fossil fuelper unit and per capita, but this work must include thewhole complex: from extraction and transportation to

combustion. The use of alternative sources remains cru-cial, but they will not meet human needs in the foresee-able future. The use of naturally grown and cultivatedplants for fuel and the expansion of the nuclear powerindustry are unacceptable in terms of ecology and secu-rity.

Human beings became the main actor in the bio-sphere in the 20th century thanks to the use of an addi-tional power of 140 W. At present, according to theminimum estimation, 50 t of matter are extracted, trans-ferred, and processed annually and on average for foodfor each resident of the planet, using 4 kW of power,800 t of water, and a still unknown amount of air. On theone hand, this sustains human life and comfort at differ-ent levels: from survival to superconsumption; on theother hand, the end result of civilization is the destruc-tion of natural ecosystems, environmental changes, theimbalanced climatic system, the creation and accumu-lation of waste in various states (gaseous, liquid, andsolid) and degrees of toxicity, and biodiversity reduc-tion.

Each demographic and environmental forum dis-cusses family planning and population regulation, sincethe primary cause of all changes is humans themselvesand their system of attitudes to the biosphere as a

source of resources and not as a home for humanity andthe totality of species. The time has come to switchfrom destroying the foundation of this home to actuallystrengthening it.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

This work was supported by the Russian Foundationfor Basic Research, grant no. 08-05-00102a.

7/27/2019 art%3A10.1134%2FS1019331609010067

5/5

HERALD OF THE RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

Vol. 79

No. 1

2009

PARADOXES OF GLOBAL WARMING CONTROL 49

REFERENCES

1. V. G. Gorshkov, V. V. Gorskov, and A. M. Makarieva,

Biotic Regulation of the Environment: Key Issue of Glo-bal Change

(Springer-Praxis, Chichester, 2000).

2. J. Chow, R. Kopp, and P. R. Portney, Energy Resourcesand Global Development, Science 302 1528-1531(2003).

3. K. Ya. Kondratev, V. F. Krapivin, and V. P. Savinykh,

Civilization Development Perspectives: A Multidimen-sional Analysis

(Logos, Moscow, 2003) [in Russian].

4. Y. Fuji-Ie, Can Nuclear Energy Support Civilized Soci-ety in the 21st Century?, Atomwirt.-Atomtechn. 51,No. 2 (2006).

5. L. D. William, The Little Age Glaciations Level on Baf-fin Island Arctic Canada, Paleogeogr., Paleoclimatol.,Paleoacol, No. 25, 199 (1978).

6.

Protecting the Tropical Forests a High-Priority Interna-

tional Task

(Bonner Universitats-Buckdrucktrei, Bonn).

7.

Global Environmental Outlook 2000

(Earthscan, Lon-don).

8. K. Ya. Kondratyev, K. S. Losev, M. D. Ananicheva, andI. V. Chesnokova, Stability of Life on EarthPrincipalSubject of Scientific Research in the 21st Century

(Springer-Praxis, Chichester, 2004).