Supplementary Material

Evolution of aluminum recycling initiated by the introduction of next

generation vehicles and scrap sorting technology

Hiroki Hatayamaa,*, Ichiro Daigob, Yasunari Matsunob and Yoshihiro Adachib

a Research Institute of Science for Safety and Sustainability, National Institute of Advanced

Industrial Science and Technology, 16-1 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8569, Japan

b Department of Materials Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo,

7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8656, Japan

h-hatayama@aist.go.jp

Contents of the Supplementary Data:

S-1 Parameters used for dynamic MFA

S-2 New scrap estimates

S-3 Data on sources and sinks in the multimaterial pinch analysis

S-4 Overall collection rates of old scrap

Pages: 16

Figures: 1

Tables: 9

S0

S-1 Parameters used for dynamic MFA

Historical consumption data are prepared as described in Hatayama et al. (2009). In this paper, we calculated the consumption data for “Vehicles” and “Transportation (except for vehicles)” which are unified in the previous study.

(Consumption for Vehicles) = (The number of vehicle production) × (Average aluminum weight in a vehicle) (S1)

(Consumption for Transportation (in this paper)) = (Consumption for transportation (in Hatayama et al. (2009)) – (Consumption for Vehicles) (S2)

The lifetimes of respective end uses are determined as Table 1 from literatures (Melo (1999); Hui (2005); Müller et al. (2006); Clean Japan Center (1999)). Weibull distribution (shape parameter is 3.5) was employed for distribution function, except for Building in Japan. For Building in Japan, log-normal distribution (variance is 0.401) was employed. These distribution models are selected on the basis of the empirical studies on the product lifetime (Komatsu et al. (1992); Tasaki et al. (2001)).

Table S1 Average lifetimes used in this study.

Europe the United States Japan ChinaBuilding 31.5 75 38.7 32.5Vehicles 13 20 10 17

Transportation 13 20 - 17Container and packaging (Discarded in the production year)

Machinery 15 30 10 17.5Electrical equipment 17.5 15 10 21.5Consumer durables 10 10 10 16

Other 10 15 10 10

The yield ratios of fabrication process were determined as Table S2 for wrought alloys (Clean Japan Center (1999)). The loss generated at this process is corresponding to new scrap. For cast alloys, no yield losses were assumed (i.e. yield ratio = 1.00) since almost all of the new scrap generated during the process seem to be returned to the melting furnace built in their plant. This assumption is based on the private communication to the castings manufacturer in Japan.

Table S2. Yield ratios for wrought alloys.

Building Vehicles TransportationContainer

and packaging

Machinery Electrical equipment

Consumer durables Other

0.70 0.90 0.90 0.85 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90

In preparing the consumption data up to 2005, the aluminum trade induced by the trade in finished products (called indirect trade or hidden trade) was considered. Indirect trade of aluminum is mainly

S1

induced by vehicles (Chen et al. , 2010; Nakajima et al. , 2011). Therefore we calculated the amount of aluminum embedded in vehicles for every year by using the historical change in the number of vehicles traded and aluminum weight in a unit of vehicle. For the other end uses, the indirect trade was not considered due to the problem of data availability and uncertainty.

Parameters used in eq.1 were calculated as Table S3 (see Hatayama et al. (2009) for details). For Transportation, eq.1 is not employed and the consumption was assumed constant from 2005 onward because historical consumption obtained from eq.S2 is rather fluctuating than increasing. For developing China, per capita stocks are so small at present that we cannot obtain adequate ssat

values with nonlinear regression. Therefore we assumed the values of ssat for respective end uses as the average ssat of the other three regions.

Table S3. Parameters used on the forecast of per capita in-use stock.

　 BuildingContainer

and packaging

Machinery Electrical equipment

Consumer durablesOtherFabricate

d metal Foil stock

Europe

ssat [kg /capita] 66 4 16 21 8 11α 5.83 3.27 4.60 6.81 8.52 13.05β 0.33 0.21 0.29 0.49 0.71 1.09

R2 0.99 0.93 1.00 0.99 0.94 0.37

United States

ssat [kg /capita] 123 7 46 33 19 15α 4.82 9.42 4.58 19.09 5.31

(*)β 0.22 0.49 0.21 1.10 0.39R2 0.98 0.96 0.98 0.62 0.37

Japan

ssat [kg /capita] 177 4 13 13 24 12 20α 4.73 7.88 2.68 4.31 2.10 3.97 2.79β 0.21 0.32 0.14 0.33 0.12 0.24 0.18

R2 0.97 0.98 0.96 0.99 0.95 0.99 0.96

China

ssat [kg /capita] 122 5 25 23 17 15α 5.10 5.07 3.84 3.16 3.22 4.01β 0.44 0.51 0.37 0.35 0.27 0.42

R2 0.99 0.97 1.00 0.98 0.98 0.99

* Set to a constant value because the time-series data do not fit a logistic curve.

S2

S-2 New scrap estimates

The amount of old scrap was estimated as Figs. 4(a) and (b). At the same time, the amount of new scrap was estimated from the aluminum demand in respective end uses and yield ratios (Table S2).

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

New

scr

ap g

ener

atio

n [M

t]

Year

Building ICEV HEVEV Transportation Container and packagingMachinery Electrical equipment Consumer durablesOther

Fig. S1 New scrap generation by end use, 2010-2050.

Both the old scrap (Fig. 4) and the new scrap (Fig. S1) were regarded as the “sources” in multimaterial pinch analysis (see section S-3 for details). Actually, new scraps are favorable to recycling for their identified compositions. The solutions of multimaterial pinch analysis accords to it: almost all of the new scrap can be recycled in any scenarios and years. As a result, the difference between recycled aluminum (orange bar in Fig. 5) and old scrap consumed for recycling (blue bar in Fig. 5) becomes almost equal to the amount of new scrap.

S3

S-3 Data on sources and sinks in the multimaterial pinch analysis

The required amounts of primary aluminum and unrecyclable scrap were calculated for three scenarios by solving following eqs.S3-S5.

Objective function = min sprimary is subject to:

(S3)

(S4)

(S5)

Tables S3-S7 show the used data for multimaterial pinch analysis in three scenarios: source and sink in 2030. “Sink” in scenario III is the same as that in scenario II (Table S7).Solving the optimization problem above with the data listed in Tables S3-S7, the minimum primary aluminum consumption (sprimary) and the maximum scrap use ( ) were calculated in this study. However, the analysis does not consider the remelting loss at recycling process. In practice, a little more primary aluminum consumption or scrap use would be required to compensate the remelting loss.

S4

Table S4 “Source” in scenario I.

Supply of scrap, i Scrap type

Amount of

Discard [kt]

Concentrations of alloying elements [%]

Si Fe Cu Mn

Europe

Building 1,014 1.78 0.48 0.47 0.21Vehicles 2,424 7.92 0.96 2.20 0.37Transportation 651 9.41 1.08 2.68 0.42Container and packaging 1,765 0.29 0.59 0.22 1.14

Electrical equipment 571 2.91 0.59 0.84 0.21Machinery 517 2.76 0.30 0.80 0.12Consumer durables 371 3.40 0.62 1.04 0.19Other 518 2.69 0.88 1.08 0.55Building n 382 0.61 1.61 2.61 3.61ICEV n 114 1.79 0.45 0.26 0.16HEV n 0 0.68 0.40 0.16 0.23EV n 0 1.78 0.45 0.25 0.16Transportation n 18 1.79 0.45 0.26 0.16Container and packaging n 311 0.29 0.59 0.22 1.14

Electrical equipment n 49 0.37 0.39 0.10 0.13Machinery n 44 0.54 0.35 0.10 0.12Consumer durables n 30 0.36 0.38 0.17 0.08Other n 46 0.43 0.77 0.50 0.57

United States

Building 433 1.21 0.43 0.30 0.19Vehicles 2,093 7.92 0.96 2.20 0.37Transportation 1,680 7.66 0.94 2.12 0.36Consumer durables 690 3.00 0.59 0.93 0.17Electrical equipment 770 1.83 0.50 0.53 0.18Machinery 517 4.46 0.94 2.12 0.36Container and packaging 2,560 0.29 0.59 0.22 1.14

Other 339 7.10 1.08 2.23 0.53Building n 294 0.61 0.38 0.12 0.17ICEV n 106 1.79 0.45 0.26 0.16HEV n 0 1.79 0.45 0.26 0.16EV n 0 1.02 0.41 0.19 0.21Transportation n 84 1.79 0.45 0.26 0.16Consumer durables n 63 0.36 0.38 0.17 0.08Electrical equipment n 82 0.37 0.39 0.10 0.13Machinery n 45 0.54 0.35 0.10 0.12Container and packaging n 452 0.29 0.59 0.22 1.14

Other n 17 0.43 0.77 0.50 0.57

China

Building 1,522 0.61 0.38 0.12 0.17Vehicles 2,995 10.18 1.15 2.92 0.44Transportation 1,465 10.10 1.14 2.90 0.44Container and packaging 7,013 0.29 0.59 0.22 1.14

Electrical equipment 1,132 2.77 0.57 0.80 0.21Machinery 1,521 5.65 0.78 1.62 0.29Consumer durables 943 0.87 0.42 0.32 0.10Other 2,050 2.58 0.87 0.65 0.55Building n 1,836 0.61 0.38 0.12 0.17

S5

ICEV n 159 1.79 0.45 0.26 0.16HEV n 0 0.68 0.40 0.16 0.23EV n 0 1.78 0.45 0.25 0.16Transportation n 31 1.79 0.45 0.26 0.16Container and packaging n 1,238 0.29 0.59 0.22 1.14

Electrical equipment n 127 0.37 0.39 0.10 0.13Machinery n 125 0.54 0.35 0.10 0.12Consumer durables n 167 0.36 0.38 0.17 0.08Other n 201 0.43 0.77 0.50 0.57

Japan

Foil 144 0.33 0.38 0.09 0.05Consumer durables 170 1.18 0.45 0.51 0.12Container and packaging 446 0.29 0.59 0.22 1.14

Machinery 174 4.72 0.71 1.47 0.27Electrical equipment 153 2.81 0.58 0.86 0.21Vehicles 1,240 8.96 1.08 3.04 0.44Building 418 0.61 0.38 0.12 0.17Other 294 1.96 0.84 0.97 0.56Foil n 15 0.33 0.38 0.09 0.05Consumer durables n 17 0.36 0.38 0.17 0.08Container and packaging n 79 0.29 0.59 0.22 1.14

Machinery n 2 0.54 0.35 0.10 0.12Electrical equipment n 12 0.37 0.39 0.10 0.13ICEV n 24 1.79 0.45 0.26 0.16HEV n 0 1.78 0.45 0.25 0.16EV n 0 0.68 0.40 0.16 0.23Building n 161 0.61 0.38 0.12 0.17Other n 27 0.43 0.77 0.50 0.57

Scrap type “n” indicates the new scrap generates at fabrication process. Otherwise the scrap generates from end-of-life products, which is a mixture of wrought and cast alloys.

S6

Table S5 “Sink” in scenario I.

Demand of alloy, j

Amount of

Demand [kt]

Concentrations of alloying elements [%]

Si Fe Cu Mn

EuropeWrought alloys

Building 1,274 0.61 0.38 0.12 0.17ICEV 1,145 1.79 0.45 0.26 0.16HEV 0 0.68 0.40 0.16 0.23EV 0 1.78 0.45 0.25 0.16Transportation 184 1.79 0.45 0.26 0.16Container and packaging 2,076 0.29 0.59 0.22 1.14

Electrical equipment 485 0.37 0.39 0.10 0.13Machinery 438 0.54 0.35 0.10 0.12Consumer durables 301 0.36 0.38 0.17 0.08Other 458 0.43 0.77 0.50 0.57

Cast alloys ADC12 2,568 8.11 0.94 2.93 0.40

United States

Wrought alloys

Building 979 0.61 0.38 0.12 0.17ICEV 1,063 1.79 0.45 0.26 0.16HEV 0 1.79 0.45 0.26 0.16EV 0 1.02 0.41 0.19 0.21Transportation 842 1.79 0.45 0.26 0.16Consumer durables 630 0.36 0.38 0.17 0.08Electrical equipment 818 0.37 0.39 0.10 0.13Machinery 448 0.54 0.35 0.10 0.12Container and packaging 3,012 0.29 0.59 0.22 1.14

Other 175 0.43 0.77 0.50 0.57Cast alloys ADC12 3,123 8.11 0.94 2.93 0.40

ChinaWrought alloys

Building 6,121 0.61 0.38 0.12 0.17ICEV 1,587 1.79 0.45 0.26 0.16HEV 0 0.68 0.40 0.16 0.23EV 0 1.78 0.45 0.25 0.16Transportation 313 1.79 0.45 0.26 0.16Container and packaging 8,251 0.29 0.59 0.22 1.14

Electrical equipment 1,269 0.37 0.39 0.10 0.13Machinery 1,252 0.54 0.35 0.10 0.12Consumer durables 1,673 0.36 0.38 0.17 0.08Other 2,007 0.43 0.77 0.50 0.57

Cast alloys ADC12 9,477 8.11 0.94 2.93 0.40

Japan Wrought alloys

1000 series 417 0.33 0.38 0.09 0.052000 series 13 0.78 0.73 4.94 0.813003 24 0.60 0.70 0.20 1.503004 333 0.30 0.70 0.25 1.50Other 3000 series 125 0.60 0.75 0.28 1.114000 series 23 13.50 1.00 1.30 0.005052 137 0.25 0.40 0.10 0.105182 145 0.20 0.35 0.15 0.50Other 5000 series 73 0.29 0.31 0.13 0.566061 21 0.80 0.70 0.40 0.156063 668 0.60 0.35 0.10 0.10Other 6000 series 38 0.96 0.50 0.23 0.63

S7

7000 series 25 0.18 0.22 2.08 0.168000 series 65 0.23 1.25 0.05 0.00

Cast alloysAC2A 330 7.00 1.00 4.00 0.50ADC12 821 12.00 1.30 3.50 0.50

Alloy numbers (name of alloys) are written in italics.

S8

Table S6 “Source” in scenario II.

Supply of scrap, i Scrap type

Amount of

Discard [kt]

Concentrations of alloying elements [%]

Si Fe Cu Mn

Europe

Building 1,014 1.78 0.48 0.47 0.21Vehicles 1,989 7.45 0.92 2.06 0.35Transportation 651 9.41 1.08 2.68 0.42Container and packaging 1,765 0.29 0.59 0.22 1.14

Electrical equipment 571 2.91 0.59 0.84 0.21Machinery 517 2.76 0.30 0.80 0.12Consumer durables 371 3.40 0.62 1.04 0.19Other 518 2.69 0.88 1.08 0.55Building n 382 0.61 0.38 0.12 0.17ICEV n 32 1.79 0.45 0.26 0.16HEV n 40 0.68 0.40 0.16 0.23EV n 29 1.78 0.45 0.25 0.16Transportation n 18 1.79 0.45 0.26 0.16Container and packaging n 311 0.29 0.59 0.22 1.14

Electrical equipment n 49 0.37 0.39 0.10 0.13Machinery n 44 0.54 0.35 0.10 0.12Consumer durables n 30 0.36 0.38 0.17 0.08Other n 46 0.43 0.77 0.50 0.57

United States

Building 433 1.21 0.43 0.30 0.19Vehicles 2,665 7.75 0.95 2.15 0.36Transportation 1,680 7.66 0.94 2.12 0.36Consumer durables 690 3.00 0.59 0.93 0.17Electrical equipment 770 1.83 0.50 0.53 0.18Machinery 517 4.46 0.94 2.12 0.36Container and packaging 2,560 0.29 0.59 0.22 1.14

Other 339 7.10 1.08 2.23 0.53Building n 294 0.61 0.38 0.12 0.17ICEV n 55 1.79 0.45 0.26 0.16HEV n 69 1.79 0.45 0.26 0.16EV n 44 1.02 0.41 0.19 0.21Transportation n 84 1.79 0.45 0.26 0.16Consumer durables n 63 0.36 0.38 0.17 0.08Electrical equipment n 82 0.37 0.39 0.10 0.13Machinery n 45 0.54 0.35 0.10 0.12Container and packaging n 452 0.29 0.59 0.22 1.14

Other n 17 0.43 0.77 0.50 0.57

China

Building 1,522 0.61 0.38 0.12 0.17Vehicles 2,026 10.18 1.15 2.92 0.44Transportation 1,548 9.46 1.09 2.69 0.42Container and packaging 7,013 0.29 0.59 0.22 1.14

Electrical equipment 1,132 2.77 0.57 0.80 0.21Machinery 1,521 5.65 0.78 1.62 0.29Consumer durables 943 0.87 0.42 0.32 0.10Other 2,050 2.58 0.87 0.65 0.55Building n 1,836 0.61 0.38 0.12 0.17

S9

ICEV n 39 1.79 0.45 0.26 0.16HEV n 23 0.68 0.40 0.16 0.23EV n 10 1.78 0.45 0.25 0.16Transportation n 31 1.79 0.45 0.26 0.16Container and packaging n 1,238 0.29 0.59 0.22 1.14

Electrical equipment n 127 0.37 0.39 0.10 0.13Machinery n 125 0.54 0.35 0.10 0.12Consumer durables n 167 0.36 0.38 0.17 0.08Other n 201 0.43 0.77 0.50 0.57

Japan

Foil 144 0.33 0.38 0.09 0.05Consumer durables 170 1.18 0.45 0.51 0.12Container and packaging 446 0.29 0.59 0.22 1.14

Machinery 174 4.72 0.71 1.47 0.27Electrical equipment 153 2.81 0.58 0.86 0.21Vehicles 969 8.85 1.07 3.05 0.44Building 418 0.61 0.38 0.12 0.17Other 294 1.96 0.84 0.97 0.56Foil n 15 0.33 0.38 0.09 0.05Consumer durables n 17 0.36 0.38 0.17 0.08Container and packaging n 79 0.29 0.59 0.22 1.14

Machinery n 2 0.54 0.35 0.10 0.12Electrical equipment n 12 0.37 0.39 0.10 0.13ICEV n 7 1.79 0.45 0.26 0.16HEV n 9 1.78 0.45 0.25 0.16EV n 9 0.68 0.40 0.16 0.23Building n 161 0.61 0.38 0.12 0.17Other n 27 0.43 0.77 0.50 0.57

Values in regard to ICEV, HEV, and EV are different from Table S3.

S10

Table S7 “Sink” in scenario II.

Demand of alloy, j

Amount of

Demand [kt]

Concentrations of alloying elements [%]

Si Fe Cu Mn

EuropeWrought

alloys

Building 1,274 0.61 0.38 0.12 0.17ICEV 322 1.79 0.45 0.26 0.16HEV 404 0.68 0.40 0.16 0.23EV 285 1.78 0.45 0.25 0.16Transportation 184 1.79 0.45 0.26 0.16Container and packaging 2,076 0.29 0.59 0.22 1.14Electrical equipment 485 0.37 0.39 0.10 0.13Machinery 438 0.54 0.35 0.10 0.12Consumer durables 301 0.36 0.38 0.17 0.08Other 458 0.43 0.77 0.50 0.57

Cast alloys ADC12 2,219 8.11 0.94 2.93 0.40

United States

Wrought alloys

Building 979 0.61 0.38 0.12 0.17ICEV 552 1.79 0.45 0.26 0.16HEV 690 1.79 0.45 0.26 0.16EV 443 1.02 0.41 0.19 0.21Transportation 842 1.79 0.45 0.26 0.16Consumer durables 630 0.36 0.38 0.17 0.08Electrical equipment 818 0.37 0.39 0.10 0.13Machinery 448 0.54 0.35 0.10 0.12Container and packaging 3,012 0.29 0.59 0.22 1.14Other 175 0.43 0.77 0.50 0.57

Cast alloys ADC12 3,729 8.11 0.94 2.93 0.40

ChinaWrought

alloys

Building 6,121 0.61 0.38 0.12 0.17ICEV 389 1.79 0.45 0.26 0.16HEV 234 0.68 0.40 0.16 0.23EV 103 1.78 0.45 0.25 0.16Transportation 313 1.79 0.45 0.26 0.16Container and packaging 8,251 0.29 0.59 0.22 1.14Electrical equipment 1,269 0.37 0.39 0.10 0.13Machinery 1,252 0.54 0.35 0.10 0.12Consumer durables 1,673 0.36 0.38 0.17 0.08Other 2,007 0.43 0.77 0.50 0.57

Cast alloys ADC12 5,701 8.11 0.94 2.93 0.40

JapanWrought

alloys

1000 series 409 0.33 0.38 0.09 0.052000 series 13 0.78 0.73 4.94 0.813003 21 0.60 0.70 0.20 1.503004 333 0.30 0.70 0.25 1.50Other 3000 series 125 0.60 0.75 0.28 1.114000 series 17 13.50 1.00 1.30 0.005052 153 0.25 0.40 0.10 0.105182 163 0.20 0.35 0.15 0.50Other 5000 series 72 0.29 0.31 0.13 0.566061 21 0.80 0.70 0.40 0.156063 655 0.60 0.35 0.10 0.10Other 6000 series 43 0.96 0.50 0.23 0.637000 series 25 0.18 0.22 2.08 0.168000 series 65 0.23 1.25 0.05 0.00

Cast alloys AC2A 297 7.00 1.00 4.00 0.50

S11

ADC12 668 12.00 1.30 3.50 0.50

S12

Table S8 “Source” in scenario III.

Supply of scrap, i Scrap type

Amount of

Discard [kt]

Concentrations of alloying elements [%]

Si Fe Cu Mn

Europe

Building 1,014 1.78 0.48 0.47 0.21

Vehicles

1000 series 327 0.33 0.38 0.09 0.052000 series 0 0.78 0.73 4.94 0.813003 43 0.60 0.70 0.20 1.503004 0 0.30 0.70 0.25 1.50Other 3000 series 0 0.60 0.75 0.28 1.114000 series 81 13.50 1.00 1.30 0.005052 45 0.25 0.40 0.10 0.105182 5 0.20 0.35 0.15 0.50Other 5000 series 29 0.29 0.31 0.13 0.566061 0 0.80 0.70 0.40 0.156063 250 0.60 0.35 0.10 0.10Other 6000 series 1 0.96 0.50 0.23 0.637000 series 11 0.18 0.22 2.08 0.168000 series 0 0.23 1.25 0.05 0.00ADC12 1,194 12.00 1.30 3.50 0.50

Transportation 651 9.41 1.08 2.68 0.42Container and packaging 1,765 0.29 0.59 0.22 1.14Electrical equipment 571 2.91 0.59 0.84 0.21Machinery 517 2.76 0.30 0.80 0.12Consumer durables 371 3.40 0.62 1.04 0.19Other 518 2.69 0.88 1.08 0.55Building n 382 0.61 0.38 0.12 0.17ICEV n 32 1.79 0.45 0.26 0.16HEV n 40 0.68 0.40 0.16 0.23EV n 29 1.78 0.45 0.25 0.16Transportation n 18 1.79 0.45 0.26 0.16Container and packaging n 311 0.29 0.59 0.22 1.14Electrical equipment n 49 0.37 0.39 0.10 0.13Machinery n 44 0.54 0.35 0.10 0.12Consumer durables n 30 0.36 0.38 0.17 0.08Other n 46 0.43 0.77 0.50 0.57

United Staets

Building 433 1.21 0.43 0.30 0.19

Vehicles

1000 series 441 0.33 0.38 0.09 0.052000 series 0 0.78 0.73 4.94 0.813003 59 0.60 0.70 0.20 1.503004 0 0.30 0.70 0.25 1.50Other 3000 series 0 0.60 0.75 0.28 1.114000 series 110 13.50 1.00 1.30 0.005052 56 0.25 0.40 0.10 0.105182 2 0.20 0.35 0.15 0.50Other 5000 series 40 0.29 0.31 0.13 0.566061 0 0.80 0.70 0.40 0.156063 340 0.60 0.35 0.10 0.10Other 6000 series 0 0.96 0.50 0.23 0.637000 series 16 0.18 0.22 2.08 0.168000 series 0 0.23 1.25 0.05 0.00

S13

ADC12 1,600 12.00 1.30 3.50 0.50Transportation 1,680 7.66 0.94 2.12 0.36Consumer durables 690 3.00 0.59 0.93 0.17Electrical equipment 770 1.83 0.50 0.53 0.18Machinery 517 4.46 0.94 2.12 0.36Container and packaging 2,560 0.29 0.59 0.22 1.14Other 339 7.10 1.08 2.23 0.53Building n 294 0.61 0.38 0.12 0.17ICEV n 55 1.79 0.45 0.26 0.16HEV n 69 1.79 0.45 0.26 0.16EV n 44 1.02 0.41 0.19 0.21Transportation n 84 1.79 0.45 0.26 0.16Consumer durables n 63 0.36 0.38 0.17 0.08Electrical equipment n 82 0.37 0.39 0.10 0.13Machinery n 45 0.54 0.35 0.10 0.12Container and packaging n 452 0.29 0.59 0.22 1.14Other n 17 0.43 0.77 0.50 0.57

China

Building 1,522 0.61 0.38 0.12 0.17

Vehicles

1000 series 150 0.33 0.38 0.09 0.052000 series 0 0.78 0.73 4.94 0.813003 20 0.60 0.70 0.20 1.503004 0 0.30 0.70 0.25 1.50Other 3000 series 0 0.60 0.75 0.28 1.114000 series 38 13.50 1.00 1.30 0.005052 19 0.25 0.40 0.10 0.105182 0 0.20 0.35 0.15 0.50Other 5000 series 13 0.29 0.31 0.13 0.566061 0 0.80 0.70 0.40 0.156063 116 0.60 0.35 0.10 0.10Other 6000 series 0 0.96 0.50 0.23 0.637000 series 5 0.18 0.22 2.08 0.168000 series 0 0.23 1.25 0.05 0.00ADC12 1,664 12.00 1.30 3.50 0.50

Transportation 1,465 10.10 1.14 2.90 0.44Container and packaging 7,013 0.29 0.59 0.22 1.14Electrical equipment 1,132 2.77 0.57 0.80 0.21Machinery 1,521 5.65 0.78 1.62 0.29Consumer durables 943 0.87 0.42 0.32 0.10Other 2,050 2.58 0.87 0.65 0.55Building n 1,836 0.61 0.38 0.12 0.17ICEV n 39 1.79 0.45 0.26 0.16HEV n 23 0.68 0.40 0.16 0.23EV n 10 1.78 0.45 0.25 0.16Transportation n 31 1.79 0.45 0.26 0.16Container and packaging n 1,238 0.29 0.59 0.22 1.14Electrical equipment n 127 0.37 0.39 0.10 0.13Machinery n 125 0.54 0.35 0.10 0.12Consumer durables n 167 0.36 0.38 0.17 0.08Other n 201 0.43 0.77 0.50 0.57

Japan

Foil 144 0.33 0.38 0.09 0.05Consumer durables 170 1.18 0.45 0.51 0.12

Container and packaging 446 0.29 0.59 0.22 1.14Machinery 174 4.72 0.71 1.47 0.27

Electrical equipment 153 2.81 0.58 0.86 0.21

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Vehicles

1000 series 73 0.33 0.38 0.09 0.052000 series 0 0.78 0.73 4.94 0.813003 9 0.60 0.70 0.20 1.503004 0 0.30 0.70 0.25 1.50Other 3000 series 0 0.60 0.75 0.28 1.114000 series 17 13.50 1.00 1.30 0.005052 12 0.25 0.40 0.10 0.105182 3 0.20 0.35 0.15 0.50Other 5000 series 6 0.29 0.31 0.13 0.566061 0 0.80 0.70 0.40 0.156063 54 0.60 0.35 0.10 0.10Other 6000 series 1 0.96 0.50 0.23 0.637000 series 3 0.18 0.22 2.08 0.168000 series 0 0.23 1.25 0.05 0.00ADC12 791 10.41 1.21 3.66 0.50

Building 418 0.61 0.38 0.12 0.17Other 294 1.96 0.84 0.97 0.56Foil n 15 0.33 0.38 0.09 0.05Consumer durables n 17 0.36 0.38 0.17 0.08Container and packaging n 79 0.29 0.59 0.22 1.14Machinery n 2 0.54 0.35 0.10 0.12Electrical equipment n 12 0.37 0.39 0.10 0.13ICEV n 7 1.79 0.45 0.26 0.16HEV n 9 1.78 0.45 0.25 0.16EV n 9 0.68 0.40 0.16 0.23Building n 161 0.61 0.38 0.12 0.17Other n 27 0.43 0.77 0.50 0.57

Scrap from vehicles is particularly separated by alloy types in scenario III.

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S-4 Overall collection rates of old scrap

The collection rates of old scrap in 2005 are estimated as 36% in Europe, 34% in the United States and 53% for Japan (Table S9). Though aluminum recovery from end-of-life vehicles and beverage cans is conducted to some extent, collection rates for other products are supposed to remain in quite low level.However, there are possibilities of underestimation of the rates. For example, not all of the new scrap may be collected. Another possibility is that scrap recovery in small smelters may not be reported on the statistics. China’s mismatched mass balance is partly caused by these uncertainties.

Table S9 Collection rates of old scrap.(Unit: kt)

Derivation of values Europe United States

Japan China

A Scrap recovery (new + old) Statistics* 2,815 3,019 1,039 480B Generation of new scrap Calculated in this study 930 1,250 379 1,155C Collection of old scrap = A - B 1,885 1,769 660 -675D Generation of old scrap

(embodied in end-of-life products)

Calculated in this study 5,115 5,176 1,257 1,582

E Collection rate of old scrap = C / D 36% 34% 53% -

* WBMS (2008)

References

Chen WQ, Shi L, Qian Y. Substance flow analysis of aluminium in mainland China for 2001, 2004 and 2007: Exploring its initial sources, eventual sinks and the pathways linking them. Resour Conserv Recycl. 2010;54:557-70.Clean Japan Center. Haikibutsu genryouka no tameno shakaishisutemu no hyouka ni kannsuru chousakenkyu houkokusho (in Japanese). 1999. p. 101-2.Hatayama H, Daigo I, Matsuno Y, Adachi Y. Assessment of the Recycling Potential of Aluminum in Japan, the United States, Europe and China. Mater Trans. 2009;50:650-6.Hui X. Overview of Aluminum Scrap Recycling and Secondary Aluminum Market in China. China Aluminum & Transportation Conference. Chongqing 2005.Komatsu Y, Kato Y, Yoshida T, Yashiro T. Report of an investigation of the life time distribution of Japanese houses at 1987. Journal of Archit Plann Environ Engng. 1992;439:101-10.Müller DB, Wang T, Graedel TE. Exploring the engine of anthropogenic iron cycles. Proc Natl Acad Sci. 2006;103:16111-6.Melo MT. Statistical analysis of metal scrap generation: the case of aluminium in Germany. Resour Conserv Recycl. 1999;26:91-113.Nakajima K, Nansai K, Matsubae K, Kondo Y, Kagawa S, Inaba R, et al. Identifying the Substance Flow of Metals Embedded in Japanese International Trade by Use of Waste Input-Output Material Flow Analysis (WIO-MFA) Model. ISIJ Int. 2011;51:1934-9.Tasaki T, Oguchi M, Kameya T, Urano K. A Prediction Method for the Number of Waste Durable Goods. Journal of the Japan Society of Waste Management Experts. 2001;12:49-58.World Bureau of Metal Staistics (WBMS). Metallstatistik. England; 2008.

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