arm strong economics evolution of us dollar 011712
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We will be holding three World Economic Conferences this year. These will be substantially
different from the Philadelphia Conference. That was a combination of an Analytical Training
Seminar and a World Economic Conference. Normally, each type of session is a two day event.
Consequently, these two events had to be crammed into two days. Unfortunately, we could not
accommodate everyone. We had to turn down 365 people. Traditionally, these events are
limited to 100 attendees. Because of the overwhelming response, the room was full to capacity
at 300+. That prohibited Mr. Armstrong from mingling with the crowd at the cocktail party and
he was unable to see each and every person. These three upcoming conferences will be
smaller, just forecasting, and will be two day events instead of the single day WEC which wasprovided in Philadelphia. Seating will be $1500 per seat. Those who are interested in attending
please send your email to reserve a seat to:
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Copyright January 17th, 2012
HE EVOLUTION of the United States dollar has been one of the most misunderstood
issues of all time. There has been far more at stake in the Rise & Fall of the dollar than
meets the eye. This is not an issue of Intangible v Tangible (Paper v Gold). This is the core
issue of the migration of the Financial Capital of the World that has taken place through
time and circumstance. The rise of the dollar represented the Decline & Fall of Europe.
The Decline & Fall of the Dollar today, represents the collapse of Western Society for the one thing that
destroys a nation has been its debt and fiscal mismanagement. Until the day comes when the people
remain diligent to temper and control their various forms of government, there is just no hope in sight.
The Financial Capital of the World has migrated perpetually because of fiscal mismanagement we the
Sovereign Debt Crisis today is merely a manifestation of the past in an endless loop of reruns. What lies
in wait just ahead is the classical conclusion of Machiavelli history repeats because mans passions
never change.
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Of
course there is the epic Fall of Rome in 476AD with the last Roman Emperor to hold the throne in the
West being Romulus Augustus (475-476AD) a most fitting name since Rome was founded by Romulus
and the first Roman Emperor was Octavian who was bequeathed the name Augustus (27BC-13AD)
meaning father of his country. The fall of Rome ushered in the Dark Age for Europe. Nonetheless, its
eastern half with the capitol of Constantinople in
modern Istanbul continued into 1453. Its fall shifted the
Financial Capital of the World to India.
During the Byzantine reign of Constans II (641-668AD),
the Muslim hoards were rising taking both Egypt and
Rhodes. In the north, the Slavs were also presenting a
threat. The frontiers of the Byzantine Empire were now
being contested. Constans II relocated his administration
to Sicily at Syracuse. When he sent for his family, the
senate refused to let them leave fearing he was in fact relocating the capital of the empire and the
solution was his assassination. By 1092, gold had vanished as
the Muslims cut off access to Numidian gold mines. The
emperor bore the illustrious name Constantine XI (1448-
1453). He died in battle defending the walls against the
Muslin invasion.
While the Muslim invasion saw the end of the Byzantine
Empire, it had also set in motion the gradual decline and fall
of India. While Byzantium fell into economic turmoil and
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crisis going into 1092, India had risen to the Financial
Capital of the World. India had been trading with the
Romans going back to the birth of Christ. Not only are
genuine Roman coins discovered in India confirming
the extensive trade, but we also find Indian simulations
(counterfeits) of Roman gold aurei of Septimius
Severus (193-211AD) that also illustrates how Roman
coinage was being used as part of the money supply in
India. This is the same pattern that we see with US
dollars circulation in Russia.
As India became the Financial Capital of the World, we then
find Indian gold coins circulating in Asia as well as in the
Middle East. Indian gold coins tended to be popular in China
when there were no actual gold coins minted by China. China
was living in the shadow of India. It had absorbed its religion
and culture.
India indeedhad peaked
as the Financial Capital of the World during the reign of
Somesvara I (1043-1068AD) due in part to the rise of
the Muslim empire that had begun to carve out its place
in history. While the Muslim world was expanding both
into Europe as well as into Asia, the balance of trade
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began to shift against India. Mahmud of Ghazni
(971-1030AD), was the most prominent ruler of
the Ghaznavid dynasty who reigned from 997AD
until his death in 1030AD in eastern Iran.
Mahmud had turned the former provincial city
of Ghazni into the new wealthy capital of an
extensive empire that included most of Iran,
Afghanistan as well as Pakistan stretching into
North-West India. Mahmud became the first
ruler to carry the title Sultan (meaning
"authority"), to signify the vast scope of his power and empire.
The 21 year-old Sultan el-Fti (the Conqueror) Mehmed II (b:
March 30, 1432, 14511481) captured Constantinople on May 29
1453 and assumed the title of Caesar. As the Ottoman Empire
began to rise India began to decline. That decline, however, was
slow taking the form of steady erosion. Nonetheless, the title of
financial capital of the world not passed to the Ottoman Empire.
Instead it passed to China. By the mid-19th century, it was now
Chinas turn to shine. It was the riches of India and China that
had attracted Britain. With a steady pace, eventually Britain
became Great and captured the crown of Financial Capital of
the World during the Victorian Age from Asia. But alas,
arrogance of officialdom emerged as always and with it fiscal
mismanagement. By 1913, the jealousy of rivals in Europe led to
World War I and with it, the peak in European greatness. The title of Financial Capital The World now
shifted from Europe and Great Britain to the United States.
During the late 15th century a new denomination of money appeared known as the guldengroschen
which was a silver coin of 28.8 grams. Silver discoveries continued and in Bohemia, these silver
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discoveries led to coins known as the "Joachimsthaler" that came from the city of Joachimsthal
(Jchymov). The slang term became "Thaler" the origin of the American dollar where Thalin German
means "valley". Therefore, the word "thaler" was the slang term for a person or a thing " from the
valley" a sort of a hick. Therefore, the word dollarwas the English translation for thaler that no
longer carried the slang meaning. It was now a monetary unit after about 200 years.
Yet the path for the dollar would reflect both the fiscal mismanagement of Britain as well as Spain.
Despite a new world of tremendous wealth, Spain borrowed far more than the next ship was always
carrying. For this reason, Spain became a serial defaulter beginning in 1557 followed by 1570, 1575,
1596, 1607, and 1647 ending in a 3rd world status. Their economic model was one of conquest rather
than constructing a viable economic establishment. The persecuted the Jews and Muslims and that
religious fanaticism led to massive migration of capital and talent. The Jews abandoned Spain and fled to
Amsterdam causing the Dutch to emerge as the initial Financial Capital of Europe. That then shifted to
England when in 1689 they adopted a Dutch King. Britain on the other hand, extracted precious metal
from the American colonies and would only pay copper. These two fiscal mismanagements on the part
of Britain and Spain set the tone for the American Revolution due to the shortage of money in the
colonies. By the 1700s, the Spanish 8 reals were commonly called dollars in America and cutting themup became a piece of eight.
United States dollar was thus the adoption of the German monetary unit thaler that had become
synonymous with the silver coin of about 28 g. Therefore the dollar was actually based upon the Spanish
silver 8 Reales coins commonly called dollars which had become the mainstay of the colonial monetary
system. Such coins were first minted by the Spanish in America during 1530. These early pieces are
known as cob coinage and tended to vary in weight in addition to being struck rather irregularly. The
designs were never fully struck and as such the coinage appeared very crude. Introduction of machine
milled coinage did not take place until 1732 and
thus it is from that period onward that we find
the term milled dollars distinguishing the
standardized products from that of this early
cob coinage. The gold coinage was often
referred to as a doubloon. There is the famous
Brasher Doubloons issued in 1787 by Ephraim
Brasher who was a Dutch gold and silversmith and
jeweler who lived next door to George
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Washington. In 1787, Brasher and John Baily petitioned the New York Assembly for the contract to coin
coppers for the state. A committee of the legislature investigated the matter and recommended that
the matter be postponed indefinitely. Possibly to stimulate interest in his proposed coinage, Brasher
issued his famous gold doubloons. These rare coins are the equivalent to the Spanish doubloon (or 8
escudos piece), weighing approximately 408 grains or 39.4 grams, and, when issued, were worth about
$15 in colonial money.
There had been a great scarcity of coins in the New World, especially in the more remote
areas. The early colonists sometimes used other mediums of exchange, such as bullets,
tobacco, animal skins, and even adopted the Indian monetary system using mussel shells
strung-together into what
would appear to be a
necklace called wampum
composed of polished
beads made from
seashells. Throughout
much of the 17th and 18th
centuries, the exchange
rate for white wampum
was 360 beads = 5
shillings and 6 beads = 1
penny. Even tuition at
Harvard University was
payable in wampum as
was transportation costs
such as the passage on
the Brooklyn Ferry.
Wampum became less
important for barter;
however it was not until around 1890 that the last wampum mill shut down.
In the Americas, there was clearly the
dominance of Spanish coinage and the absence
of English silver or gold coinage that provided
the incentive for the establishment of paper
money. Here is a Massacushets Bay note from
1690.
These Spanish silver milled dollars were also
known also as Pillar Dollars based upon the
design showing two worlds the old and the
new. They were minted between 1732 and 1771
with a weight of 26.8 grams.
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The term Piece of Eight refers to the fact that these coins were often cut into pieces to make small
change. These pieces were called a bit representing 12.5 cents and thus 8 bits was equal to 8 shillings
which equaled a pound. By the time the US dollar was created in 1794, "two bits" was equal to 25 cents
(quarter dollar). Here we have two bits stamped Saint Lucia Island declaring this to be a valid coin of the
colony.
These bits are common also among the cob coinage. They tend to be referred to also a fleet money
implying their ultimate export to Europe. They are also commonly reffrered to as pirate money since
this is the booting seized from a treasurr ship.
The Act of April 2, 1792, which established the U.S. Mint, authorized the production of the United States
Silver Dollar .8924 fine silver with a weight of 416 grains or 26.9563 grams. A troy ounce weighs 480
grains and thus the silver dollar began with a gross weight of .866 of an ounce with a fine silver weight
of only .773 of a troy ounce. The United States continued to mint silver dollars until 1804. Britain had
stopped striking gold coinage in 1797 and did not resume until 1813 after the Napoleonic War. It was
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during this period in time that Britain was counter-
stamping Spanish silver dollars and this in 1804 it
began to over-strike these coins with British designs.
The United States did not resume striking silver
dollars until 1837.
By 1853, the value of a United States Silver Dollar
had contained in gold terms, $1.07 of silver. With the
Mint Act of 1853, all US Silver coins, except for the
US Silver Dollar and new 3 cent coin were reduced by
6.9% as of weight with arrows on the date to denote
reduction. The US Silver Dollar continued to be minted in very small numbers mainly as a foreign trade
with the Orient.
There was to be absolutely political meddling
in finance under Andrew Jackson (1757-1845;President 1829-1837), who note merely
began the Bank War, but created the Panic of
1837. Jackson was intent upon destroying the
Bank of the United States and did quite a nice
job of it that he set the stage for the Great
Panic of 1837. Jackson has decentralized
banking and encourages massive widespread
fraud whereby private banks issued their own
currency. There was no Federal paper
currency until the Civil War in 1861. This is
the period known as the Broken Banknote
and Wildcat Banking era for there are numerous state banks that all issued their currency and
defaulted on a massive scale. This idea that banks issue paper money ironically stems from this whole
idea that money is tangible. The idea that a bank issues its own currency backed by its own reserves was
the cornerstone of banking. It was to be a place of safe keeping that was it. Not a lender of your
money.
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The United States government issued no paper currency until the Civil War. Financing the Civil War was
accomplished with paper currency just as Britain had ceased the production of gold coins resorting to
paper during the Napoleonic War. There were demand notes that simply promised to pay in coin
eventually as was the case with the Continental Currency. However, there were interest bearing notes
as well as compound interest bearing notes. This provided a form of circulating bonds.
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There were also Gold Certificates, which were quite rare. Clearly, the term Greenback became thename of notes that neither were backed by gold nor paid interest as a
hybrid bond. Thus, the term Greenback referred purely to the lack
of anything on the reverse but green ink. Here we also see a $5
Louisiana note that also paid interest and note the coupons attached
to the right side.
In 1863, to encourage the sale of government bonds, the government
created the National Banking Act. Individual banks could issue their
own currency according to standardized federal designs up to 90% of their holdings of federal bonds.
Thus, they were monetizing the debt in a very clever manner as illustrated here.
The idea that a bank issues the notes was
clearly nothing new. This was the very idea from
which this whole tangible idea emerges. A bank
held assets and monetized those assets by
issuing currency that reflected the tangible
assets held by the bank be it gold, or in this
case, bonds. Currently, the entire monetary
system is still based upon this concept where
central banks hold reserves of US dollars, but
they are in the form of bonds, not actually
paper currency. In truth, MONEY has become
really bonds that the government pretends is
not MONEY but in fact they represent reserves
in the same manner as these National Bank
Notes that began in 1863.
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Just in time for the Panic of 1869 when Jim Fisk sought to force the price of gold higher on the New York
Stock Exchange where Greenbacks then traded, we have the Legal Tender issue of currency, which was
also not backed by gold or interest baring. However, because of the Panic of 1869, we begin to see Gold
Bank notes emerging in California during 1870.
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Of course the whole Panic of 1869 was about pushing gold higher and the idea was that when the
United States would have to return to the Gold Standard, it would have to accept whatever price it was
trading at on the market at that moment in time. James Fisk (1835-
1872) and Jay Gould (1836-
1892) managed to get gold
to rally up to $162 and
ounce on September 24th,
1869. This was the financial
panic where bankers werebeing dragged out to the
streets and hung and they
had to send in troops to
suppress the panic, which
gave rise to the term Black
Friday.