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• Education

TWRI 2013 population projections, what a difference a year

makes!

Chris StephensTWRI

November 2014

Population projections

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• The world population is projected, to be in the region of 11 billion by the end of the Century, up over 50% from today.

• The United Kingdom and England, in particular, may not be immune from the impact of this on our population numbers and consequently on the environment.

Source: Bradshaw, C.J.A. and Brook, B.W. (2014) Human population reduction is not a quick fix for environmental problems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (October 2014).

General Comments (1)

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• England is almost certain to see significant population increase.

• For every 1% increase this represents a population growth of around 500,000.

• For every 2% increase this represents a new city the size of Birmingham.

General Comments (2)

Population projections

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• 1) Usually Resident Population.

• 2) Short-term Migrants.

• 3) A Population Estimate.

• 4) A Population Projection.

• 5) A Population Forecast.

Some Definitions

Population projections

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• We use the Co-hort survival method. • However, unlike ONS which, in their

projections, constrain the sum of the districts to the England total, TWRI starts with local authority, produces the projection and aggregates to the Region.

• We produce a variety of scenarios, including Natural Change, Internal migration only.

• We do use a variety of weightings.

Method used

Population projections

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Table 1: England Projections

Population projections

Source and base year

ONS TWRI

Year 2008 2010 2012 2012 2013

2008 51,459.5

2010 52,198.2 52,234.0

2012 52,954.0 53,106.5 53,493.7 53,493.7

2013 53,332.0 53,563.0 53,843.6 53,910.8 53,865.8

2017 54,860.2 55,340.8 55,414.5 55,564.9 55,515.5

2022 56,822.5 57,428.3 57,337.8 57,503.2 57,465.1

2027 58,696.2 59,349.7 59,124.0 59,252.1 59,312.8

2032 60,396.2 61,087.9 60,723.9 60,794.9 61,043.8

2037 61,938.8 62,730.6 62,166.0 62,185.0 62,663.7

2038 62,235.7 63,056.6 62,440.6 62,971.4

Mid-year England residential population in '000's.

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England Projections (2)

Population projections

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• Besides understanding natural change and migration patterns, one of the aims of this analysis is to decide how we should project forward from 2013, for the different change elements. For example, should we expect birth rates to go up, to go down or roughly be the same? Since we use the past to project our view of the future we need to look at the past data, presented in a meaningful sense.

TWRI: Projecting from 2013

Population projections

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Table 2: Comparison of ONS & TWRI results

Population projections

Area

Originator Projection Base Year

Projected Year

Source/Model Gateshead North East England

ONS 2012 - MYE 100 100 100

ONS 2012 2037 ONS 106 106 116

TWRI 2012 2037 Nat. Ch. 98 102 105

TWRI 2012 2037 Int. only 98 97 105

TWRI 2012 2037 All Mig. 103 115 118

TWRI 2013 2037 Nat. Ch. 98 99 106

TWRI 2013 2037 Int. only 96 96 105

TWRI 2013 2037 All Mig. 98 104 116

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Table 3: Female Percentage

Population projections

Area

Originator Base Year Year Source Gateshead North East England

ONS 2012 2012 MYE 51.07 51.07 50.77

ONS 2013 2013 MYE 50.95 51.03 50.74

ONS 2012 2037 Proj. 50.07 50.52 50.17

TWRI 2012 2037 Proj. 49.30 50.33 49.91

TWRI 2013 2037 Proj. 49.86 50.70 50.34

TWRI 2013 2038 Proj. 49.81 50.69 50.33

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• We have used 2011 data, updated to 2013, to get projections, for England, North East districts and the North East to 2038.

• In principle, this can be done for any Region/Area in the Country.

• A year can make a big difference a) to the population projections for a Local Authority or Region and

• b) to England, it could mean an extra half a million.

Conclusions (1)

Population projections

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• Examining various scenarios helps to understand the underline patterns in births, deaths and migrations.

• It would improve understanding if a number of neighbouring authorities got together and requested analyses for their authorities; additionally it would be substantially cheaper overall.

Conclusions (2)

Population projections

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References

Population projections

1) All of the raw data, used in this presentation, can be found on the Office for National Statistics website.

2) “{i}” 28th. October 2014 page 22. [The newspaper “{i}” .]

3) Bradshaw, C.J.A. and Brook, B.W. (2014) Human population reduction is not a quick fix for environmental problems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (October 2014).

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TWRI Web Site:www.twri.org.uk

TWRI E-mail:kadhem.jallab@twri.org.uktwri@twri.org.uk

Population projections