ardavan asef-vaziri, som, cobae, csun 2014 1 on the student academic success facet of our strategic...

Ardavan Asef-Vaziri, SOM, COBAE, CSUN 2014 1

On the Student Academic Success Facet of Our Strategic Plan

An Operations Management Perspective

Ardavan Asef-VaziriSystems and Operations Management, COBAE,

CSUN


Count what is countable. Measure what is measurable.

What is not measurable, make it measurable.

Galileo Galilei, 1564 -1642.


Freshmen

Transfers

Network of Value Added and Non-Value Added Activities

GraduateDrop-offs

HumanResources

CapitalResources

Value SystemInformation Infrastructure

CSUN Transformation Process

Network of Value Added and Non-Value Added Activities

GraduateDrop-offs

Freshmen

Transfers

HumanResources

CapitalResources

Value SystemInformation Infrastructure


Process Competencies

Quality

Cost

Flow Tim

e

Flex

ibili

ty

Stakeholders

Satisfaction

Customer Satisfactio

n

Value Chain

Performance

Financial Performanc

e

Expectations

Perceptions


Customer Value Proposition

Quality

Cost


Competitive Space; Quality and Cost Efficiency

Cost

CSUN

P

B

S

N

Qualit

y o

f th

e R

eso

urc

es

and P

roce

sses



Cost Efficiency: 1/CostCostQualit

y o

f th

e R

eso

urc

es

and P

roce

sses



Cost Efficiency

World Class Universities

Qualit

y o

f th

e R

eso

urc

es

and P

roce

sses



Cost Efficiency

P

B

S

N

Qualit

y o

f th

e R

eso

urc

es

and P

roce

sses

CSUN

S ≈ 1, P ≈ 1, B ≈ 3, N ≈ 3, CSUN ≈ 6


From 2 dimensional space of Quality-Cost to one dimentional space of Quality/CostBased on the subjective evaluation of about 1000 SOM306 students we reached to the conclusion that the quality of the resources and learning processes of a world class institute such as Stanford is twice of that of CSUN. We can argue this. You may believe it is more or less. So please give me your numbers. At the same time., I am working on quantifying this. So if you have sources of data that we can help to quantify this let me know. Thanks.Based on the tuition and its related fees we reached to the conclusion that the cost efficiency of CSUN is 6 times of that of Stanford.We then can conclude that quality to cost for CSUN is 3 times of that of Stanford.


Flow Time: COABE. 11-Years Graduation Rate and Time To Graduation Performance

Initial headcounts 2001 5,364 Average FTEs 2001-11 4,709Average Incoming 2001-11 1,574 Average incoming freshman 646Average Graduates 2001-11 1357 Freshmen/Total 41%Ending headcounts 2011 5,910 Graduates/incoming 86%Average Drop-offs 2001-11 167 Drop-off Rate 11%Average headcounts 2001-11 6,144 FTEs/HC 77%


Competing Edges and Process Competencies


Customer Value Proposition

Stakeholders

Satisfaction

Value Chain

Performance

Flow Tim

e

Quality

Cost

Flex

ibili

ty

Customer Satisfactio

n

Financial Performanc

e

Expectations

Perceptions

Flow Tim

e

RT=IR = Throughput = 1574I = Population = 6144T =3.94 4 year life at CSUNFreshman 40% & Drop-off 10%TtD=0.25 TtGF & TtGT=0.5 TtGF0.4T+0.1(0.25T)+0.5(0.5T)=40.675T = 4T = 5.93 6

Flow Tim

e

Inventory

Th

rou

gh

pu

t


Flow Time: Time To Graduation

TtD/TtGF6.0 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.500.25 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.10.30 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.80.35 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.50.40 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.2

TtGT 0.45 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.0TtGF 0.50 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.7

0.55 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.50.60 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.30.65 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.10.70 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0


Flow Time at CSUN: Time To GraduationTable 1. % of Graduation Rate for the First Time freshmen (based on averages). Table 2. % of Graduation Rate for the First Time freshmen (Based on Upward Trends).

Fall Total Fall ≤ 4 years ≤ 5 years ≤ 6 years ≤ 7 years ≤ 8 years ≤ 9 years Regression Total Fall ≤ 4 years ≤ 5 years ≤ 6 years ≤ 7 years ≤ 8 years ≤ 9 years

1997 2568 3% 18% 32% 38% 42% 44% Slope (b0) 2296 0.034 0.178 0.317 0.385 0.415 0.420

1998 2286 6% 23% 36% 43% 46% 48% Intercept (b1) 149.49 0.009 0.018 0.015 0.015 0.017 0.025

1999 2602 7% 24% 36% 43% 47% 49% Coeff. Determ. (R2) 0.71 0.89 0.91 0.88 0.78 0.87 0.95

2000 2821 8% 25% 39% 46% 49% 52% p value (a) 0.0022 0.0001 0.0003 0.0017 0.0191 0.0206 0.0232

2001 3270 8% 26% 39% 46% 49% Regression 3791 13% 35% 47% 53% 59% 67%

2002 3662 8% 26% 39% 46%

2003 3595 10% 30% 43%

2004 2975 12% 33%

2005 3713 11%

2006 3690

Average 3118 8% 26% 38% 44% 47% 48%

4-year GR =13%, 9- year GR= 67%. Time to graduation, for those graduating in ≤ 9 years has µ = 6.3, σ = 2.6 years.


From 3 dimensional space of Quality-Cost-Time, to one dimentional space of Quality/Cost/TimeWe concluded the quality to cost for CSUN is 3 times of that of Stanford. It is reasonable if we assume that time to graduation at Stanford is 4 years. Therefore in the time to graduation dimension, Stanford performs 1.5 of CSUN. In that 0.5 extra time, student pay tuition, therefore if we map the three dimensional space of Q-C-T into one dimensional space of Q/C/T, that 3 of our pervious computations is now turn to 3/1.5 =2. However, in that 0.5 period, the students not only pay all their tuition fee, but also still are employed at a low rate, perhaps under 40 hours and perhaps lover benefits. So it is reasonable to assign a weight of 2 or even 3 to that 0.5. The Q/C/T of CSUN then turn into 1.5, and 1.2, respectively


Where is the Solution?

■ Better text books■ Revision of our teaching material■ Assignments to fill the gap between capability of our

students and requirements of our text books■ Hiring higher quality professors■ Replacing Problem solving with case studies■ Active learning, problem based learning, Peer Learning■ Increasing the utilization of our classrooms■ Replacing chairs and desks of the classrooms■ Add more Technology in classroom■ Ipad in our classroom


Systems Thinking; Rumi- Elephant in the Dark


Rumi, the 13th Century Persian poet, and the teacher of Sufism, has a retelling of the story of the blind men and an elephant originated in India "The elephant in the dark".

■ Felt the elephant with his palm in the darkness. ■ If each had a candle, differences would disappear.

From Rumi that Muslim teacher of Sufism and Systems -thinking in 13th century to Eliahu Goldratt, an Israeli physicist in 20thTheory of constraints

■ An enterprise is a chain■ The chain is only as strong as its weakest link.

Systems Thinking; Elephant in the Dark


Theory of Constraints

Just like the links of a chain, the resources and learning processes at CSUN work together to generate value for the students and other stakeholders. A chain is as strong as its weakest link.

We need to refuses to accept current NA/SA as a constraint, and treat them as variables.1. Exploit the constraints2. Subordinate everything else to that constraint3. Elevate the Constraints4. When the constraint is relaxed, look for the next

constraint

Time, effort, and funds devoted to non-binding constraints are a waste of organizational resources.

What is the constraint?


Binding Constraints

Turn D and F students into C students. Or Turn A and B students into MS and PhD candidates. Unlike Sci., Eng. and Soc. Science at CSUN, COBAE is not known for MS and PhD.

PWP, MTS, MTO


Continuity

Lack of vertical and horizontal link between courses. When we want to create something new, we think of creating a new object. A system is composed of objects off course, but more importantly, what defines a system is the network of the interrelationships between the objects. There are about 400-500 cars in the US, let’s get the best component of each, for example the best engine, perhaps Rolls Royce, best transmission- perhaps Mercedes, the best X, the best Y, ……. Let’s put them together; it cannot even ride, because the links do not work. My OM course is vertically related toMATH103,MATH140, ECON160, BUS497. It is also horizontally related to FIN303. link creation.


Binding Constraints

Lack of Understanding the Requirements of Quantitative Courses. There are profound differences in the nature, learning tools, technology, and the requirements of quantitative vs. qualitative courses.

Lack of Understanding the Appropriateness of Online Courses. Assuming four rows of a matrix as freshman, sophomore, junior, and senior, and four columns of quantitative, close to quantitative, close to qualitative, and qualitative courses, directions of our future research is to analyze which of traditional, hybrid, online, and flipped classes is the strategic fit for each of the 16 elements of this matrix.


Scheduled Availability

■NPV of the direct financial costs of delayed graduation.

■NPV of economics and social costs of delayed graduation.

■Promotion/advertisement. Reduce working & leisure time.

■Improved time management■Changing the fee structure. Not the same fee for

12-21units, benefit of economy of scale, failure or low quality graduates.

■Centralization, e.g. Admission and Library processes. Intends to allocate the released

resources to more value-added■Pooling, e.g., Admission and

Records. ■Flipped Classroom. Deliver the

lectures online. Assign the class time to more value added activities.

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=clock&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=Dv4aMr7KrwoEDM&tbnid=YFMS18bK6i1fYM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://theclockmaster.com/&ei=OSsTUf6_C-3RiAL6m4GoCg&bvm=bv.42080656,d.cGE&psig=AFQjCNGktURVzkZ2jA7RlPT6AhsL2zihow&ust=1360296745947365


Net Availability

Net-availability: the level of concentration during scheduled-availability. Surfing unrelated sites and text messaging in class are examples of net-availability detract.

I will have my cell phone laptop or tablet OFF except for reasons directly and fully related to SOM306 material.

I will not create any background noise or disturbance during lectures. Otherwise, after the first not, my class participation grade will be set to zero.

I understand the Student Core Values are: Respect, Honesty, Integrity, Commitment, and Responsibility.

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=text+messaging&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=LgZ3-7syl4t0RM&tbnid=8YA9IWfjoj0IfM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://computer.howstuffworks.com/e-mail-messaging/sms.htm&ei=ibYIUdz-EMOziwKdgoHgDw&bvm=bv.41642243,d.cGE&psig=AFQjCNGOdjIfccjABexeJ1AvH78LEM-3cg&ust=1359611850371412


Admissions & Records; Inverse Seasonality Relationship

Level of activitiesHigh

Records

Admissions

LowJul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Month


eTranscript


Centralized Admission


DPR Knowledge; Questionnaire Results


Academic Advisement Reform

■Use $9.7M in potential cost savings from e-Transcript and Master Auto Admit to:

■Hire more academic advisors ■ $70,000 annual salary/academic advisor■ 138 new academic advisors ($9.7M/$70K)■ CSUN gets 12 more academic advisors per year

■Provide advising services during evening hours

■Mandatory advisement for students with GPA < 3.0 every semester.

■Provide more workshop on DPR knowledge


Savings from One Semester Shorter TtG


Course Repetition Reduction

■Each (resident) student reduces course repetition by 1.2 semester units per semester.

■CSU saves $16.4 million per year



Cost Efficiency

Production of a Cartier Rolex watch and Asef’s Watch using exactly the same process competencies.

Qualit

y o

f R

aw

mate

rial and W

IP

■Physical segregation politically incorrect

■Honor Student Sessions not fit the schedule of all honors

■Virtual Segregation


Time to Graduation vs. VarietyVari

ety

Time to Graduation (TtG)

What % of honor and likely-honor students can take honor sessions ? (schedule conflict).

5 6 7 8 94


Retention Rate vs. VarietyVari

ety

Retention Rate (RR) 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%40%


Course Delivery System Matrix

■Traditional, Hybrid, Online, or Flipped■On the spectrum from pure qualitative to pure

quantitative, where the course is standing. Which of the 4 course delivery system is the strategic fit for this type of courses.

■Where the student is standing; FM, SM, JR, SR. Which of the 4 course delivery system is the strategic fit for this year in the program.

■On the spectrum from pure individual work to pure teamwork, where the course is standing. Which of the 4 course delivery system is the strategic fit for this type of course.

■On the spectrum from pure qualitative to pure quantitative, where the course is standing. What can Ipad do for this type of courses.


Flipped Classroom

longer spent on teaching the basic concepts, but on more value-added activities

Problem solving

Trouble

shoutin

g

Participation

Enhancement

Real w

orld A

pps

and D

iscussion

s

Sys

tem

s-th

inki

ng

Cre

ativ

e -

thin

king

Case studies Web-based Simulation

By delivering the lectures online using recorded screen captures, the students are empowered to stop, rewind, and Fast Forward the professor.

This is an excellent learning power. Class time is no


Flipped Classroom Has All the Competing Edges of Traditional, Hybrid, and Online Courses

■In order for a flipped classroom to outperform its substitutes it need to at least have all online and hybrid capabilities.

■Four competing edges of a successful course is clear, consistent, high expectations, just in time support, continual assessment (early feedback and understand secret of early effective warning system warning on performance and how to improve) , student engagement social engagement collaborative teaching


The Total Flipped Classroom System

Lecture Captures

Class Attendance,Participation, Engagement

Proctored Exams

Online Intermediate & Advanced Quizzes

Solved /Animated BasicAssignments

Learnin

g M

anagem

ent S

yste

m

Case Studies & Problem Based

Learning

Web-based Simulation Games

PowerPoint Slides

Solved /Animated Advanced Assignments

Textbook

Online Basic Quizzes


Quality

Cost

Flow Tim

e

Flex

ibili

ty

Flexibility of Processes vs. Quality of Row Material

■do not offer enough elective courses■for the required courses, students on long waiting lines

and beg their professors to enroll in a session fitting their schedule. They work 20-40 hrs

Flex

ibili

ty


CSUN. 11-Years Graduation Rate and Time To Graduation PerformanceCSUN First-Time

FreshmenFirst-Time Transfers

Total Incoming

Graduates Continuing Students

All Students

Net Retutning

Net Drop-Offs

All Students (FTEs)

2000 22,553

2001 3,302 3,405 6,707 4824 17,756 24,463 27 0 19,725

2002 3,675 3,122 6,797 5073 18,984 25,781 0 406 20,837

2003 3,610 2,726 6,336 4944 19,437 25,773 0 1,400 20,807

2004 2,979 2,671 5,650 5488 19,003 24,653 0 1,282 19,789

2005 3,720 3,754 7,474 5564 19,380 26,854 291 0 21,941

2006 3,695 3,833 7,528 5682 20,753 28,281 0 419 22,862

2007 4,130 3,989 8,119 6619 21,365 29,484 0 297 23,749

2008 4,625 3,652 8,277 6416 21,958 30,235 0 1,110 24,667

2009 4,203 3,692 7,895 6426 21,380 29,275 0 2,429 23,511

2010 5,195 4,472 9,667 6723 20,213 29,880 0 2,339 23,815

2011 5,269 4,917 10,186 6520 21,318 31,504 0 2,042 26,010Mean 4,037 3,658 7,694 5,844 20,141 27,395 28.91 1,065.82 22,519

Initial population 2001 22,553 Aggregate FTEs 2001-11 22,519

Average Incoming 2001-11 7,694 Average incoming freshman 4,037

Average Graduates 2001-11 5844 Freshmen/Total 52%

Ending population 2011 31,504 Graduates/incoming 76%

Average Drop-offs 2001-11 1,037 Drop-off Rate 13%

Average HCs 2001-11 27,835 FTEs/HC 81%


Meetings, Pounds of Sticky Notes

■ Meetings; how to improve something; Ex. Increasing GR and reducing TtG.

■ Sticky notes 10s of ideas; each writes a different prescription.

■ Each sticky note looking at the hill on its own horizon as the top of the mountain

■ Local View, Local Optimization, Sub-system optimization.

■ Global Send the students to China, Brazil, India….

■ Global Have a global view- Systems Thinking see the elephant

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=sticky+not&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=ZPgmL_4X7atQaM&tbnid=ydPEUQC6fydzHM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.thefastestpaydayloans.com/?tag=sticky-notes&ei=gqkIUZjEEar8igLynYD4BA&bvm=bv.41642243,d.cGE&psig=AFQjCNFn1Vb_nZ4AFY-NVLzjaB8Ser4s7g&ust=1359608537130225


The University-Wide Event, Feb. 2014. “Enhancing the Academic Potential of our Students.” Solutions↓ Let students know we expect them to graduate; Address students from a holistic perspective; Mentor students; Help students connect the dots (don’t allow them to

experience the University as a fragmented bureaucracy;

Smile, say hello, look students in the eye, and ask they how their day is going;

Show students that you care (know and use their names; follow up if you know something happened to a student; be specific in praising students’ work; be responsive to student inquiries; encourage free-flow discussion in class, including opposing views);


The University-Wide Event, Feb. 2014. “Enhancing the Academic Potential of our Students.” Solutions↓ Understand students come to CSUN with some bad

habits; Let students know not only what services are available

to help them but also how to access and use them; Talk about the needs and benefits of simple reading,

critical thinking, and observing deadlines; Acknowledge the power differential students feel with

us; Provide opportunities for student reflection; Share your love of learning; Reflect on how you deal with your frustration with

students; Explore options with students (listen to their goals and

reassure them); Don’t give up on a struggling student;


The University-Wide Event, Feb. 2014. “Enhancing the Academic Potential of our Students.” Solutions↓ Establish a sense of belonging to the campus; Come to class prepared and enthusiastic about

teaching; Engage students through active learning (focus on

skills, not just content); Incorporate technology in the classrooms.

If these are the solutions then why we are riding full

speed to online. These are not the solutions. Online is not the solution.

ardavan asef-vaziri, som, cobae, csun 2014 1 on the student academic success facet of our strategic...

Documents

processesardavan asefvaziri

cost efficiency of csun

graduation ardavan asefvaziri

csunardavan asefvaziri

competitive space quality

dimensional space of

years graduation rate

world class institute