arab climate resilience initiative cairo: 20-21 september, 2010 vulnerability of moroccan coastal...
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Arab Climate Resilience InitiativeCairo: 20-21 September, 2010
Vulnerability of Moroccan coastal zones to sea level rise and shoreline erosion
Abdellatif Khattabi
Email: [email protected]
• Low microbiologic and physico-chemical qualities of water nearby some urban settlements (pollution by liquid effluents and solid waste);
• coastal erosion (natural phenomena and human intervention –sand mining, urbanization);
• pollution and salinisation of aquifers (sea water intrusion, intensive agriculture)
• loss of coastal ecosystems.
Major forces of change in Moroccan coastal zones
1) demography/urbanization2) tourism3) agriculture4) fishing5) industry6) Transport7) Climate change
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Algeria Egypt Morocco Tunisia
COED, % of GDP
Cost of protection,% of GDP
% of GDP
Comparison of COED and Cost of protection
Impacts of Changing Climates on Coasts
The potential threats (IPCC 4rth report)– More frequent storms– sea level rise– a change in landscapes– shifts in biological diversity
Potential damages to:• infrastructure
• Economic activities (tourism, fisheries)
• cultural assets
Morocco by 2020 (SNC, 2001)
Average temperature increase
Diminishing precipitations Diminishing water
resources Sea level increase Increasing Storms
frequency Varying waves regime
Physical impacts on coastal zones
Sea level rise
Submersion of low laying coasts
Coastal erosion Sea water intrusion into
aquifersCoastal morphology
Y Y -
Natural ecosystems
Y Y Y
Water resources Y - Y
Coastal infrastructures
Y Y -
Vulnerability assessment criteria and approach
Natural vulnerability Socioeconomic vulnerability
Morphology/topography Population density
Presence/absence of natural defenses Coastal infrastructures
Degree of exposure Importance of economic sectors
PI= f(exposure, sensibility)
V=f(PI, AC)
Vulnerability assessment
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Vulnerability of Moroccan CZ
High vulnerabilityMedium vulnerability
Low vulnerability
Dégradation du littoral de Tanger
Plage de TAMARES 2 en 2003
(M’hammedi, 2005)
o Bouareg
o Beni Ensar
o Nador
o Iheddadene
o Kariate Arekmane
Enabling stakeholders in Moroccan coastal management to develop sustainable climate change adaptation policies
and plans
(2007-2010)
www.accma-maroc.com
Objectives:
The global objective is to develop capacity for, and contribute to, policy and decision-making for strategic coastal land use planning and management, to the purpose of reducing the vulnerability of coastal communities to the impacts of sea level rise, coastal flooding, and related extreme weather events.
the non-cohesive Sediment Transport (ST-MIKE21) module has been applied.
The values of annual mean potential sediment transport have been computed in different sections, extrapolated in m3/year .
Sections equidistant (1500 m), parallel one to each other,
The sediment discharges calculated represent the total annual potential transport generated by the contribution, for each grid, of the L and R waves, opportunely weighed on its annual frequency of occurrence.
Sediment transport
Coastline evolution 1
29
56
116
135
103
728000,000000
728000,000000
735000,000000
735000,000000
742000,000000
742000,000000
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508
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0 2,5 51,25
Km
Légende
Ligne de côte 1986
Ligne de côte 2003
Ligne de côte 2006
Ligne de base 1
< -1 m/an
-1 ; 1 m/an
> 1 m/an
Lagoon of Nador
Mediterranean Sea
Accret
ionErosion
Passe de Boukâna
• EPR : - 0,44 m/an• LRR : - 0,43 m/an
Project outputsIPCC scenarios downscalingVulnerability maps of various sectors (socioeconomic and natural systems)Good adaptation practicesManual on education and raising awareness on CC adaptationGender and CC, adaptation optionsSmall scale fisheries and adaptation to climate changeRecommendations on how to integrate CC considerations into planning and legislationICZM Plan of Action taking into account the CC vulnerability ad adaptation options
Drivers:UrbanisationAgricultureDemographyC-Change
Pressures:ConstructionPollutionOverharvesting Development on shorelineImmersion; water intrusion
State: ErosionSalinisationPollutionLoss of natural areas
Impact: Loss of biodiversityLoss of soil fertility;Loss of health;Loss of ecosystem servicesLoss of aesthetic valuesLoss of economic opportunities
Response:Institutional measures;Research; Integrated management
Land Planning and management tomeet new challenges (C-change)
Laws and regulation enforcement,
Pollution control; Restoration of ecosystems; Erosion control Conservation measuresHard measures of protectionSoft measures of protection
Education & awareness raising (C-change);
Monitoring
DPSIR Analysis
In coastal areas, damage has occurred and will continue (CC potential effects);There is a need:
• to integrate between sectors, stakeholders, etc. as climate change crosses all sectors;
• for medium and long terms planning• for a strategy of adaptation;• to communicate and interact;• for an effective jurisdiction and institutional
framework for coastal areas;• for research and data acquisition and monitoring.
What is being implemented Charte of environment and SD under progress Law on protected areas Project of Law on coastal zones adaptation actions (CBA) (fisheries, agriculture, building adaptive
capacity of women) the ICZM plan of action with the WB financial support
Conclusions