ar-raqqa market monitoring trends analysis cash … · as of september 2017, it was estimated that...

KEY FINDINGS• During the observation period, food prices

and month-to-month food price changes observed in Ar-Raqqa were comparable to those of other communities in northern Syria. Prices remained largely unchanged for all but six assessed food items, which fluctuated in line with dynamics observed across northern Syria in the same period.

• Using the food, non-food item, and fuel components of the SMEB as a proxy for household expenditure, a notable decline in prices was observed in Al Thawrah, which was attributed to the improving security situation between October and December 2017.

• Overall, SMEB component costs in Ar-Raqqa communities were similar to those

of northern Syria, with food slightly cheaper in the northwest and manually refined kerosene cheaper in Ar-Raqqa in the last quarter of 2017.

• The sharp drop in the USD/SYP exchange rate observed at the end of November across Syria was temporary and attributed to changes in Syrian central bank policy. After the rate plummeted in November, it returned to pre-November levels in early January.

• The cost of a SMEB in USD increased at the end of 2017 even as the cost in SYP declined in the same period due to the decline in the USD/SYP exchange rate through most of 2017. If this trend continues in 2018, SMEB costs in USD will continue to rise even if costs in SYP remain stagnant.

Ar-Raqqa Market Monitoring Trends AnalysisOctober - December 2017

Cash-Based Responses Technical Working Group

A L - T H A W R A H

M A N S U R A

J U R N E Y Y E H

T E L L A B I A D

S U L U K

E I N I S S A

A R - R A Q Q A

S A B K A

K A R A M A

M A A D A N

AR-RAQQA

T U R K E Y

ALEPPO

HOMSHAMA

AL-HASAKEH

DEIR-EZ-ZOR

Al-Thawrah

Suluk

Tell Abiad

Ein Issa

Mansura

Ein Al-ArusAljern Alaswad

Sokkariyeh

Tal Elsamen Dahham

Hazimeh

Kalta

Rashid

TishrineJurneyyeh

Mahmudli

AminKherbet Elroz

Kisret Elsheikh Jomaa

Hammam At-Turkman

Hisheh

Community Covered Highway Major Road Subdistrict

CONTEXTAs of September 2017, it was estimated that the Syrian conflict had led to the displacement of 12.6 million people, 6.1 million of whom are internally displaced persons (IDPs).1 In Ar-Raqqa governorate in particular, the expulsion of the so-called Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in October 2017 marked a new phase in the humanitarian response. However, the humanitarian situation has remained fragile, as during the month of October alone, a total of 39,133 IDP departures were recorded from the IDP Situation Monitoring Initiative (ISMI) covered communities in Ar-Raqqa governorate.Since October, tens of thousands of IDPs have been expected to leave collective centers, informal settlements, camps, and host communities throughout Ar-Raqqa governorate to return to their communities of origin. Many communities are in need of post-conflict reconstruction with limited access to services and varying degrees of access to food and market functionality. Securing better access to markets and creating income-generating opportunities are critical components of the humanitarian response and will eventually become cornerstones of any early recovery effort. When supported by a robust understanding of market functionality, market-based approaches to humanitarian aid allow communities to prioritise their own needs, while continuing to support existing infrastructure and services. Markets, as an integral component of Syrian life, should therefore be considered in the context of any integrated multi-sector response.

OVERVIEW

To inform humanitarian actors’ cash and voucher programming, REACH and the Cash-Based Responses Technical Working Group (CBR–TWG) conduct monthly monitoring of key markets throughout Syria to assess the availability and affordability of basic commodities (Market Monitoring Exercise). Monitored commodities reflect those that are typically available, sold in markets and consumed by an average Syrian household including food items, non-food items, fuel, water and smartphone data. Many are components of the Survival Minimum Expenditure Basket (SMEB), detailed on page four, which represents the minimum culturally adjusted group of items required to support a six-person Syrian household for one month. Between October and December 2017, a network of 13 non-governmental organisations involved in cash-based responses in Syria contributed data from 135 communities in 70 subdistricts spanning 10 governorates. This analysis uses price data collected in 20 communities in 7 subdistricts of Ar-Raqqa governorate to calculate typical food prices and SMEB component costs in the governorate in order to inform market-based programming. Typical price variations of assessed food items are aggregated and indexed, and any notable price changes over time are contextualised in reference to observed national-level price trends in Syria over the past year. Additionally, an analysis of the main food, non-food, and fuel components of the SMEB are analysed in 6 communities across 6 subdistricts in Ar-Raqqa, providing an indication of typical SMEB price variation and a comparison to other regions in Syria. Finally, exchange rates dynamics over the past year are summarised, placing the sharp decline of the USD/SYP rate observed in November in context to broader trends observed in 2017.Situation overviews and data sets from all months of the Market Monitoring Exercise are available on the REACH Resource Centre and are distributed to the broader humanitarian community. For additional details on methodology, please consult the appendix at the end of this document.

ASSESSED AREAS


2 Ar-Raqqa Trends Analysis: October - December 2017

Food PricesPRICE OVERVIEWFood price trends in Ar-Raqqa were similar to those observed across northern Syria at the close of 2017. For over half of the assessed food items, prices did not notably change between October and December 2017. For the six items where there were observed price changes, they were primarily locally-produced goods such as vegetables and poultry products. However, it is important to note that while the average median cheapest price did not change over the three months, typical variation in prices differed by item. For example, while the price distribution of bulgur was fairly narrow, with an interquartile range only varying by approximately +/- 15 SYP around a median value of 235 SYP/kg, cooking oil was much more varied, with prices in the interquartile range varying by over 50 SYP around a median value of 500 SYP/L.

*All items reported per kilogram unless otherwise specified. Items with notable monthly price variations are presented on next page.

FOOD PRICE COMPARISON: Ar-Raqqa and North SyriaFood Item* Location Median (SYP) Interquartile Range (SYP)

Bread (per 8 pieces)Ar-Raqqa 100 100 120North Syria 125 100 150

BulgurAr-Raqqa 235 220 250North Syria 250 200 250

Cooking oilAr-Raqqa 500 450 571North Syria 500 475 550

CucumbersAr-Raqqa 250 200 275North Syria 255 200 300

GheeAr-Raqqa 700 600 750North Syria 650 550 750

OnionsAr-Raqqa 125 100 125North Syria 100 82.5 125

RiceAr-Raqqa 500 425 500North Syria 450 300 475

Salt (per 500g)Ar-Raqqa 65 37.5 100North Syria 70 50 100

Tea (per 100g)Ar-Raqqa 340 310 350

North Syria 350 320 380

Tomato pasteAr-Raqqa 500 450 500North Syria 500 450 650

Ar-Raqqa Food Price Variation: Items with Notable Price Variation over Time*Visualisation uses data from December 2017

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Ar-Raqqa Food Price Variation: Items with No Price Variation over Time*Visualisation uses data from October - December 2017

Interquartile Range

Ar-Raqqa Trends Analysis: October - December 2017 Cash-Based Responses Technical Working Group

3

Food Prices (continued)

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TRENDS OVER TIMENotable price trends were observed from six food in Ar-Raqqa governorate towards the close of 2017: red lentils, chicken, eggs, potatoes, tomatoes, and sugar. These price trends are not unique to Ar-Raqqa, but in line with those observed throughout Syria. Furthermore, these trends are all relatively minor in comparison with the price variation that was observed over the past year, and were almost all smaller than the price variation of the interquartile range of observed values.

PROTEIN ITEMSThe price of eggs, chicken and red lentils in Ar-Raqqa saw slight decreases comparable to trends in other communities in northern Syria. This was part of a general decline in the prices of these items observed across Syria during 2017. Between December 2016 and 2017, the median reported cheapest price of chicken fell from 925 SYP/kg to 750 SYP/kg. The price of eggs and lentils fell from 1500 SYP/kg to 1062 SYP/kg and 500 SYP/kg to 350 SYP/kg in the same period. In the last three months of the year, the median cheapest price of lentils remained stable, eggs decreased 100 SYP/kg, and chicken decreased 5 SYP/kg.

VEGETABLESThe median cheapest price of potatoes and tomatoes also did not deviate from trends observed in northern Syria. The price of vegetable items fluctuated seasonally across Syria in 2017, with the prices of most items rising to a peak around April 2017, and then declining to around 100-200 SYP/kg by July. Since September, the prices of tomatoes and cucumbers have risen, while potatoes and onions remained near July 2017 prices.

SUGARSugar prices decreased by nearly 50 SYP/kg between October and December in line with a 100 SYP/kg decline across Syria in 2017. This may be part of the decline in world sugar prices observed in 2017.2

MEDIAN FOOD PRICE CHANGE (SYP)Food Item* Location October November December

ChickenAr-Raqqa 750 750 700North Syria 750 720 725

EggsAr-Raqqa 650 1100 1050North Syria 1000 1100 1000

Red LentilsAr-Raqqa 450 375 350North Syria 350 350 350

PotatoesAr-Raqqa 160 150 125

North Syria 150 140 125

TomatoesAr-Raqqa 200 190 300North Syria 155 195 275

SugarAr-Raqqa 350 325 300North Syria 350 330 290

WoS Food Price Variation in 2017 : Protein Items*

WoS Food Price Variation in 2017 : Vegetables*

Note: Trend lines are the median cheapest price across all assessed markets in Syria, with the grey band visualising the interquartile range of prices recorded for that item that month. Visualisations of monthly trends in this overview do not account for monthly variations in coverage.*All items reported per kilogram unless otherwise specified.



Survival Minimum Expenditure Basket (SMEB)

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CommunitiesAl−Thawrah

Amin

Jurneyyeh

Suluk

Tell Abiad

TishrineSMEB components

Food

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SMEB ANALYSIS OVERVIEWIn Tell Abiad, Suluk, Amin, Tishrine, Al-Thawrah and Jurneyyeh communities, data collection in the last quarter of 2017 was consistent and complete enough to analyse and compare trends for individual SMEB component costs. While the coverage of water and telecom data prices was not consistent over time and so was not included in this analysis, these two items typically comprise around 6% of a complete SMEB cost.3

Data collection of all individual components in the food, non-food items, and fuel categories were complete for all three months in all these communities except Tishrine, which did not report fuel data in October.

Total of SMEB Food, Non-Food Item, and Fuel COMPONENT COSTS in SYP

Communities Regions

Jurneyyeh Suluk Amin Al-Thawrah Tishrine Tell Abiad Ar-Raqqa North Syria4

October 47024 49073 50766 59841 - 50642 50642 51757November 54707 47690 53370 56380 53973 52270 53672 50477December 45281 50580 50225 49414 51056 52232 50402 49217

SMEB Comparison Northern SyriaMedian SMEB component costs did not significantly vary over time. The median costs of the food, non-food, and fuel SMEB components in Ar-Raqqa track closely with the rest of northern Syria, never varying by more than 6% from each other during the observation period. The largest observed trends in the six communities were the drop of Al-Thawrah from most expensive community to average between October and December 2017, and the increase in the cost of the food component of the SMEB in Jurneyyeh and Tishrine between October and November. The change in Al-Thawrah is attributable to two factors, the decline in the price of red lentils from 600 SYP/kg to 325 SYP/kg, which represents a notable proportion of the costs of the food component of the SMEB, and a decline in the price of manually refined kerosene in the community from 300 SYP/L to 180 SYP/L. Local staff suggest these price declines in Al-Thawrah may be due to the improving security situation over this period. In Jurneyyeh and Tishrine, increases in the price of bread and eggs caused most of the price increase observed between October and November. The price of eggs reportedly increased from approximately 600 SYP/kg to around 1100 SYP/kg in both communities between October and November, and the price of bread increased from 100 to 150 SYP/8 pieces in Tishrine, and from 100 to 120 SYP/8 pieces in Jurneyyeh. The reasons for these changes may be attributed to improvements to the security situation, although this is unconfirmed.Overall, SMEB costs appear similar between these six communities in Ar-Raqqa and the rest of northern Syria. Kerosene costs are cheaper in Ar-Raqqa than in the northwest, as fuel prices across northeastern Syria have been cheaper than in the northwest and south throughout 2017. While individual communities may have unique local security contexts that affect market access, the larger communities in Ar-Raqqa reported overall SMEB costs similar to those observed in the rest of northern Syria.

Item QuantityFood Items

Bread 37 kgBulgur 15 kgChicken 6 kgEggs 6 kgFresh vegetables 12 kgGhee/vegetable oil 7 kg/LRed lentils 15 kgRice 19 kgSalt 1 kgSugar 5 kgTomato paste 6 kg

Non-Food Items

Bathing soap 12 barsLaundry/dish soap 3 kgSanitary pads 4 packs of 10Toothpaste 200 g

Fuel Cooking fuel* 25 LWater Water 4500 LTelecom Smartphone data 1 GBOther Float (other costs)** 7.5% total value

SMEB CONTENTS

* Kerosene in northern Syria; LPG in southern Syria.** Float was excluded from SMEB calculations due to the commonality of incomplete baskets.

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SMEB Component Costs: October-December 2017

Note: Costs calculated by taking the median community-level cost of each SMEB component across the region for the last three months of 2017. Water data is excluded from Ar-Raqqa due to the small number of observations in this period.

Ar-Raqqa Trends Analysis: October - December 2017 Cash-Based Responses Technical Working Group

5

Exchange Rate

EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONSThe USD/SYP informal exchange rate in Ar-Raqqa governorate did not notably differ from the rest of Syria. As can be observed from data gathered from the Market Monitoring project visualised above, the Syrian Pound has been strengthening for most of 2017, with the USD/SYP exchange rate declining by 80 SYP between April and October. However, as documented by the informal exchange rate tracker Syrian Pound Today and confirmed by local staff, the rate dropped by over 50 SYP between 11 and 30 November to a floor of 410 SYP on the dollar.5 This shock appears to have been temporary, as by January the rate had returned to pre-November levels.5 The Market Monitoring project will be able to confirm these findings in the next monthly situation overview.The drop in November was attributed to changes in Syrian central bank policy in an attempt to reign in informal exchange rates and strengthen the SYP: this included limiting individuals to “one foreign exchange purchase per month”, a “500[USD] cap on foreign currency transfers”, and a mandatory three-month waiting period before transfers could be accessed.6 Local humanitarian staff noted this was coincident with a shortage of SYP at [informal] exchange rate offices.

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EXCHANGE RATE EFFECT ON PRICE LEVELSSMEB costs in SYP have remained fairly stagnant or even declined somewhat in the last quarter of 2017 in Ar-Raqqa. However, the decline in the USD/SYP exchange rate has led to overall increases in the cost of the SMEB in USD. The following graph shows a pair of price indices which visualise relative changes in the median WoS complete subdistrict SMEB cost from February, when the latest version of the SMEB was finalized. Changes in SMEB cost are presented as a fraction of the initial observed cost. Therefore, a value of 1.00 indicates no difference from February 2017, a value of 0.95 indicates a 5% decrease, and so forth.Overall the USD and SYP price indices remained comparable until September 2017, when the cumulative effect of several months of the declining USD/SYP exchange rate became pronounced. Since then, while the price of a complete SMEB has continued to decline in SYP, the declining USD/SYP exchange rate has caused the price of a complete SMEB in USD to increase. Notably, the large spike in the USD price index in December is attributable to the sudden and temporary drop of the USD/SYP exchange rate in November, which as of January has returned to pre-shock levels. However, the broader divergence between the price indices is due to the continuous decline of the USD/SYP exchange rate for most of 2017. If this trend continues, USD-denominated SMEB costs will continue to rise unless the decrease in the general price level exceeds the rate of depreciation of USD.

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WoS SMEB Price Index Comparison: February-December 2017

Note: Trend lines are the median reported exchange rate across all assessed markets in Syria, with the grey band visualising the interquartile range of exchange rate values recorded that month. Visualisations of monthly trends in this overview do not account for monthly variations in coverage.



WHAT IS THE CASH-BASED RESPONSES TECHNICAL WORKING GROUP?The Cash-Based Responses Technical Working Group (CBR–TWG) was established in March 2014 to analyse the impact of the ongoing conflict on markets in Syria and guide the implementation of humanitarian cash and voucher programmes within those markets. REACH and the CBR–TWG have been partners on the Syria Market Monitoring Exercise since early 2015. Since February 2017, the exercise expanded coverage into the south, bringing monthly market assessments to communities in Damascus, Rural Damascus, Dar’a and Quneitra governorates.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON METHODOLOGYTo be included in the Syria Market Monitoring Exercise, markets must be permanent in nature, large enough to support at least two wholesalers, and diverse enough to provide a sufficient variety of goods and commodities. The shops surveyed within each market must be housed in permanent structures and must sell certain items to be eligible for inclusion. Participating organisations train their enumerators on the Market Monitoring methodology and data collection tools using standard training materials developed by REACH. Each enumerator aims to assess three to five shops of each type in the main market in their assigned subdistrict, using surveys to collect information about prices, current product inventory and the time needed to replace current stocks. In subdistricts where direct surveying by enumerators is not possible, such as Lattakia and Deir-ez-Zor, data collection is conducted remotely through key informants such as shop owners, suppliers and consumers.Five survey forms are deployed on KoBo each month to capture price and stock information from different types of establishments, including grocery stores, fuel traders, currency exchange shops,

water trucking services and mobile phone shops, among others. Nearly all participating partners submit their data to these KoBo forms, using the KoBoCollect Android app to upload data. A small number of partners, by prior permission, collect data using fully harmonised data collection tools deployed on other platforms, then submit their raw data to REACH for standardisation, compilation and cleaning.Following data collection, REACH compiles and cleans all partners’ data, normalising prices and cross-checking outliers. The cleaned data is then analysed by commodity and by subdistrict. Prices are divided into quartiles and boxplots are created to help CBR–TWG members understand the distribution of prices. To illustrate local variations in prices and availability, REACH uses the collected data to map the price of an SMEB in each subdistrict. The cleaned data sets are available on the REACH Resource Centre and are distributed to all participating partners, as well as to interested clusters and the broader humanitarian community.

CALCULATION OF ‘MEDIAN CHEAPEST PRICE’

This figure is calculated by taking the median of the minimum-reported prices of a region’s sub-districts. In turn, the minimum-reported prices for each sub-district was taken from the median of the minimum-reported prices of the constituent shops assessed.

CALCULATION OF SURVIVAL MINIMUM EXPENDITURE BASKET (SMEB) COSTSThe cost of a SMEB is calculated for each assessed subdistrict by calculating the median cheapest price of each SMEB commodity in that subdistrict, then multiplying these medians by the number of units that an average Syrian household requires to purchase in a month. The composition of the SMEB can be found on page four.

AppendixREFERENCES1 OCHA, December 2017. 2018 Humanitarian Needs Overview: Syrian Arab Republic. (Page 11). Retrieved from: http://hno-syria.org/data/downloads/full.pdf2 Wernau, J. (2017, December 8). Sugar Selloff Extends Into Fourth Session. Fox Business. Retrieved from http://www.foxbusiness.com3 Water and cell phone data comprised a median 5.7% of the complete SMEB baskets in the 36 communities across northern Syria (excluding Ar-Raqqa governorate) between October and December 2017. All of these communities were in Idleb, Aleppo and Hama, and only Menbik and Abu Qalqal communities were in northeastern Syria. Due to the lack of water trucking in Al Hasakeh, no communities with complete SMEBs were recorded in that period. Interestingly, the percentage was remarkably stable, not significantly changing when expanding to all communities with complete SMEB baskets across Syria over the past year.4 Includes communities with complete SMEBs in northern Syria outside of Ar-Raqqa. Due to the lack of water data no complete SMEBs were observed in communities in Al-Hasakeh and the remaining communities were almost all in the northwest.5 Syrian Pound Today reports SYP/USD exchange rates from Aleppo and Damacus city. Retrieved from: https://sp-today.com/en/6 Alhamwi, M. K. (2017, December 11). Eyes on Damascus: Exchange Rates, Financial Restrictions and Subsidized Fuel. Syria Deeply. Retrieved from: https://www.newsdeeply.com/syria/articles/2017/12/11/eyes-on-damascus-exchange-rates-financial-restrictions-and-subsidized-fuel

ABOUT REACH INITIATIVEREACH is a joint initiative of two international non-governmental organizations — ACTED and IMPACT Initiatives — and the UN Operational Satellite Applications Programme (UNOSAT). REACH facilitates the development of information tools and products that enhance the capacity of aid actors to make evidence-based decisions in emergency, recovery and development contexts. By doing so, REACH contributes to ensuring that communities affected by emergencies receive the support they need. All REACH activities are conducted in support to and within the framework of inter-agency aid coordination mechanisms. For more information, please visit our website at www.reach-initiative.org, contact us directly at [email protected] or follow us on Twitter at @REACH_info.

ar-raqqa market monitoring trends analysis cash … · as of september 2017, it was estimated that...

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