aquamaps: mapping biodiversity hotspots and assessing impacts of climate change k.kaschner (fao...
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AquaMaps: Mapping Biodiversity Hotspots and Assessing Impacts of Climate Change
K.Kaschner (FAO & Albert-Ludwigs-University of Freiburg), M. Taconet (FAO), A. Ellenbroek (FAO), N. Bailly (WFC), L. Pagano (CNR)
EGEE’0922 September 2009Barcelona (Spain)
www.d4science.eu
2EGEE’09 Barcelona, 22 September 2009 AquaMaps – Biodiversity Hotspots & Climate Change
• Our problem
• One solution
- & its limitations
• Towards better solution.....
Outline
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We want to save the
world....
Our Problem
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• Long-term protection of marine biodiversity
• Implementation of Ecosystems Approach to Fisheries
Our Goals
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Who‘s involved?
Production systems / Fleets
Resources of commercial interest
Broader ecosystem
Physical environment
FAO
WFC
RFBs
CoML / OBIS
IOC
IUCN
Fisheries
biod
iversity
Environm
ent
GBIF
Environmental Monitoring
Ecosystems approach to Fisheries
Marine Conservation
ESA
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Marine mammal species (n = 115) Currently available point occurence data
Our Problem, More Specifically: Limited Information about Species
Occurrence
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800,000 occurrence records (www.gbif.org)
300,000 described marine species
> 1,000 000 potential species
Our Problem, More Specifically: Limited Information about Species
Occurrence
......not a lot of data / species
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So, what to do?
Solea Solea – Common Sole
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The Solution: Species Distribution Modelling
• Input– Occurrence data & information– Environmental layers
• Algorithms– RES / AquaMaps (ecological niche model)– BioClim– Maxent….
• Predictions– Existing distribution (mostly annual average)– Temporal projections (future/historic)
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Our Solution: AquaMaps
www.aquamaps.org
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Our Solution: AquaMaps
... produce computer-generated, reproducable species range maps for (evenually) all species using available data and a transparent, easily understandable and modifiable approach, so maps can be reviewed and improved by species experts.
very large / global scale low temporal resolution (annual average) can deal with data poor species can deal with imperfect input data
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AquaMaps – how does it work?
• Bathymetry• Temperature
– Sea surface temperature (SST) for pelagic species (0-200 m)– Bottom temperature for non-pelagic species (>200 m)
• Salinity– Sea surface salinity for pelagic species– Bottom salinity for non-pelagic species
• Primary production• Sea Ice Concentration• Distance to land (for special cases)
Global raster: 0.5 degree lat x lon = 180,000 cells
13EGEE’09 Barcelona, 22 September 2009 AquaMaps – Biodiversity Hotspots & Climate Change
AquaMaps – how does it work?
Probability
Observed min
Observed max
Optimal range10th to 90th percentiles
Environmentallayer values
75th percentile +(IQR*1.5)
25th percentile -(IQR*1.5)
IQR = interquartile range
Environmental envelopes
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AquaMaps – how does it work?
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Solea Solea – Common Sole
Ready et al, accepted
AquaMaps – how does it work?
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www.aquamaps.org
> 9000 species covered
AquaMaps – how does it work?
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AquaMaps – how good is it?
• Validating individual species range maps• Kaschner et al, 2006
Southern elephant sealSouthern elephant seal
18EGEE’09 Barcelona, 22 September 2009 AquaMaps – Biodiversity Hotspots & Climate Change
• Validating individual species range maps• Kaschner et al, 2006
• Testing model performance in comparison to other approaches• J.Ready, K.Kaschner et al, accepted
AquaMaps – how good is it?
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• Validating individual species range maps• Kaschner et al, 2006
• Testing model performance in comparison to other approaches• J.Ready, K.Kaschner et al, accepted
• Validating species richness maps• K.Kaschner et al, in prep 0
5
10
15
0 10 20 30
Predicted species richness
Ob
serv
ed s
pe
cie
s ri
chn
ess
AquaMaps – how good is it?
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AquaMaps – what can we do with it?
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AquaMaps – what can we do with it?Biodiversity Maps
45 of 57 species
# of species / cell
Scombridae
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AquaMaps – what can we do with it?Biodiversity Maps
Species richness
Gadidae: 23 of 25 species
Mean length
Mean trophic level
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AquaMaps – what can we do with it?Biodiversity Maps
6544 of 29184 speciesRay-finned fishes
# of species / cell
The world, all species: up to 400 billions computations
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AquaMaps – what can we do with it?
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AquaMaps – what can we do with it?Longitudinal Transects
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AquaMaps – what can we do with it?
Latitudinal gradientsLongitudinal gradients
40ºN
10ºE 20ºE 30ºE0ºE
30ºN
50ºN
35ºN
45ºN
5ºE 15ºE 25ºE
Several lat / lon transects computed globally for many species
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AquaMaps – what can we do with it?
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AquaMaps – what can we do with it?MPA Planning
Species selectionbased on:
• IUCN criteria
• Area dependence
• Resilience
• Fisheries
• Popularity
All marine mammals (n = 115)
Kaschner, 2007
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Species richness category
Mean s
eam
ount density
Spearman’s rho = 0.76, p < 0.0001
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AquaMaps – what can we do with it?MPA Planning
Wood et al, in review
ResNet optimization, all species: Several weeks using Supercomputers
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AquaMaps – what can we do with it?
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AquaMaps – what can we do with it?Modelling Impacts of Climate Change
Kaschner et al, in prep
Marine Mammals (n = 115)
Biodiversity gain [%]
%%%%%%%%%%
0
150
100
120
130
140
225
180
300
600
%%%%%%%%%%
%%%%%%%%%%
0
150
100
120
130
140
225
180
300
600
0
150
100
120
130
140
225
180
300
600
%%%%%%%
% 0
20
2.5
5
10
15
100
25
%%%%%%%
%%%%%%%%
% 0
20
2.5
5
10
15
100
25
Biodiversity loss [%]
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AquaMaps – what can we do with it?Modelling Impacts of Climate Change
Kaschner et al, in prep
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
-77.5 -62.5 -47.5 -32.5 -17.5 -2.5 12.5 27.5 42.5 57.5 72.5 87.5
Latitude
Cha
nge
in s
peci
es r
ichn
ess
[%]
Pinn
Odnz
Ziph
Myst
Marine Mammals (n = 115)
Relative change in species richness by latitude & different taxonomic groups
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AquaMaps – what can we do with it?Modelling Impacts of Climate Change
WorldFish Centre Project:
Hotspots, Fisheries and Climate Change in South China Sea
- 6,188 half degree cells- 2,540 species- 5+3 environmental parameters
Local multispecies map, several climate scenarios:
up to 1 billion computations
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Requirements– harmonization of time series data– querying, with aggregation and reallocation rules– combining biodiversity information with fisheries Catch
time series– spatial dimension and mapping (GIS)
ICIS
Fisheries
Fishing activity / Catch
Integrated Capture Information System product: harmonized and reallocated
catch statistics
Implementing an Ecosystems Approach to Fisheries
AquaMaps – Biodiversity Hotspots & Climate Change
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This is where we’re going….
D4Science: Collaborative virtual laboratories (VREs) in support to science
• working environment with access to multidisciplinary data sources and chain workflow processes • Facilitates control of data sharing and collaborative reporting• Provides access to GRID Infrastructure, storage and computing powers to all regional fisheries bodies
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Local
Dynamic AquamapsEnvironmental monitoring
ICIS/time series
D4
Scie
nce
Aquamaps
WFC
Fisheries Biodiversity Oceanography
Habitats Geo-forms HydrographyVulnerable Marine Ecosystems
Satelliteoceanography
Species occurence
FishBase
OBIS
ESA
Fishing activity / Catch
GIS areas - species
FAO
RFBs
Catch statistics
Reference system
Catch statistics
Reference system
SealifeBase
UBC
G-POD
end-users services
AquaMaps – Biodiversity Hotspots & Climate Change
This is where we’re going….
37EGEE’09 Barcelona, 22 September 2009
Local
Dynamic AquamapsEnvironmental monitoring
ICIS/time series
D4
Scie
nce
Aquamaps
WFC
Fisheries Biodiversity Oceanography
Habitats Geo-forms HydrographyVulnerable Marine Ecosystems
Satelliteoceanography
Species occurence
FishBase
OBIS
ESA
Fishing activity / Catch
GIS areas - species
FAO
RFBs
Catch statistics
Reference system
Catch statistics
Reference system
SealifeBase
UBC
G-POD
end-users services
AquaMaps – Biodiversity Hotspots & Climate Change
This is where we’re going….
39EGEE’09 Barcelona, 22 September 2009 AquaMaps – Biodiversity Hotspots & Climate Change
Acknowledgements
• D4Science Contract n°: RI-212488
• INCOFISH Project (www.incofish.org) & AquaMaps (www.aquamaps.org)
– Jon Ready, Eli Agbayani, Josephine Rius Barile, Kathy Kesner-Reyes, Paul D. Eastwood, Andrew B. South, Sven O. Kullander, Tony Rees, Chris Close, Reg Watson, Daniel Pauly & Rainer Froese
• ‘Sea Around Us’ project (www.seaaroundus.org) & Pew Charitable Trusts of Philadelphia, USA
– Reg Watson, Andrew Trites, Daniel Pauly
• The Sloan Foundation & the FMAP Project (www.fmap.ca):
– Boris Worm, Derek Tittensor, Tim Guerodette