aquacultural situation and outlook
DESCRIPTION
AQUACULTURAL SITUATION AND OUTLOOK. “TEACH A PERSON HOW TO FISH -- HE CAN SURVIVE” “TEACH A PERSON HOW TO GROW FISH -- HE CAN MAKE A LIVING” ?? Jerry R. Crews Auburn University. SRAOC SEPTEMBER 2002. WORLD FISHERIES 2000. FAO. FISHERY EXPORTER 2000. FAO. FISHERY IMPORTER 2000. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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AQUACULTURAL SITUATIONAND OUTLOOK
“TEACH A PERSON HOW TO FISH -- HE CAN SURVIVE”
“TEACH A PERSON HOW TO GROW FISH -- HE CAN MAKE A LIVING” ??
Jerry R. Crews
Auburn University
SRAOC SEPTEMBER 2002
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WORLD FISHERIES2000
CHINA
PERU
JAPAN INDIAU.S.
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
MM
T
FAO
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FISHERY EXPORTER2000
THAILAND
CHINANORWAY
U.S.
CANADA DENMARK
2
3
4
5
$ B
IL
FAO
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FISHERY IMPORTER2000
JAPAN
U.S.
SPAIN FRANCEITALY
0
5
10
15
$ B
IL
FAO
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WORLD SEAFOOD SUPPLY2000
WILD CATCH72%
AQUACULTURE28%
FAO
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WORLD CAPTURE FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE PRODUCTION
102030405060708090
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00
PER
CE
NT
AQUACULTURE CAPTURE FISHERIES
NMFS
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WORLD AQUACULTURE2000
CHINA
INDIA
INDONESIA
JAPAN
THAILAND
BANGLADESH
VIETNAM
5
10
15
20
25
MM
T
FAO
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U. S. SEAFOOD SUPPLY1999
AQUACULTURE9%WILD CATCH
27%
IMPORTS64%
NMFS
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U. S. SEAFOOD SUPPLY2001
AQUACULTURE7%
WILD CATCH18%
IMPORTS75%
NMFS
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FISH AND SHELLFISH1970 - 2001
PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION
11.712.1 12.4
15.0 15.0 14.915.6
14.8
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
70 75 80 85 90 95 '00 '01
# P
ER
CA
PIT
A
USDA
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U. S. SEAFOOD CONSUMPTION
TUNA
SHRIMP
POLLOCK
SALMON
CATFISH
COD
CRABS
CLAMS
0.2
0.6
1.0
1.4
1.8
2.2
2.6
3.0
3.4
#/C
AP
ITA
1991 2001
NFI
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2001 U. S. SEAFOOD CONSUMPTION
SHRIMP
TUNA
SALMON
POLLOCK
CATFISH
COD
CLAMS
CRABS
FLATFISH
TILAPIA0.2
0.6
1.0
1.4
1.8
2.2
2.6
3.0
3.4
#/C
AP
ITA
NFI
First Time Tilapia Made “Top Ten”
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U.S.AquacultureProduction
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Production States
NORTH CENTRALNORTH CENTRAL NORTHEASTERNNORTHEASTERN
SOUTHERNSOUTHERN
WESTERNWESTERN
TROPICAL & SUBTROPICALTROPICAL & SUBTROPICAL
PerchStriped BassTilapia
CatfishStriped BassTilapiaBaitfish
TroutSalmonShellfishStriped BassTilapia
Ornamental, Food and Shellfish
SalmonShellfishStriped Bass
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Aquaculture Sales
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U. S. AQUACULTURE VALUE2000
FRESHWATER85%
MARINE15%
NMFS
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Sales by Aquaculture Category
• Food fish - 70%
• Mollusks - 9%
• Ornamental fish - 7%
• Baitfish - 4%
• Crustaceans - 4%
• Sport/Game - 1%
• Other animal aqua. - 5%
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U. S. AQUACULTURE VALUE - 2000
CATFISH46%
TROUT7%
TILAPIA3%STRIPED BASS
3%
SALMON10%
CRAWFISH3%
BAITFISH5%
OTHER19%
OYSTERS4%NMFS
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U.S.CatfishIndustry
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CONSISTENT PRODUCT
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CATFISH CONSUMPTION
2.3
2.9
5.6
4.4
0.91.4
0.80.9
2.42.0
3.7
0.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
TX IL CA LA TN AR FL MS AL MI MO GA
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
MIL # PER CAPITA
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CATFISH SALES 2001
AL16%
OTH5%
AR15%
MS58%
LA6%
USDA
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CATFISH ACREAGEAND NUMBER OF FARMS
987
1886
1249
507090
110130150170190210
1982 1992 2002500
1000
1500
2000
1000 AC FARMS
USDA
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CATFISH ACREAGEAND OPERATION SIZE
8075
157
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
1982 1992 200260
85
110
135
160
1000 AC AC/FARM
USDA
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CATFISH PRODUCTION AND INTENSITY
2981
1000
3755
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1981 1991 200105001000150020002500300035004000
MIL # #/AC
USDA
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CATFISH PRICES1970 - 2002
3035404550556065707580
70 75 80 85 90 95 '00 '01 '02(p)
CE
NT
S/L
B
USDA and Crews
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CATFISH PRICES1970 - 2002
32
42
52
62
72
82
92
70 75 80 85 90 95 '00 '01 '02(p)
CE
NT
S/L
B
FARM REAL
USDA (82-84 real base)
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There is a strong seasonal aspect to pricing as seen in the 5, 10 and 25-year averageprice received curves above. However, the norm was not followed in 2001.
CATFISH PRICE PAID TO PRODUCERS
55
60
65
70
75
80
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2001
25 YR AVG
10 YR AVG
5 YR AVG
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55
60
65
70
75
80
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Jun
Jul
Au
g
Sep Oct
No
v
Dec
$/lb
Catfish Price Paid to Producer
2001 price
2000 price
$.10 + per lb lessthan 2000 = -14%
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50
55
60
65
70
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Jun
Jul
Au
g
Sep Oct
No
v
Dec
$/lb
Catfish Price Paid to Producer
2001 price
2002 price
$.11 + per lb lessthan 2001 = -17%
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Catfish Product Form Sales
21%
62%
17%
Whole fishFilletsOther
The catfish fillet product form is preferred over other product forms (whole fish, steaks, nuggets).
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Fresh and Frozen Catfish Products
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01
1,00
0s o
f Lbs
.
Fresh Frozen Total
Over the last 15 years, there has been an ever widening production difference betweenfrozen and fresh catfish products. Frozen catfish products are in higher demand now thanever before with 60% of all catfish products being frozen.
Source: USDA Economics and Statistics System, NASS
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U.S. Catfish Fillet Processing
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01
1,00
0s o
f Lbs
.
Fresh Frozen Total
Over the years, frozen catfish fillets had increasingly demanded over fresh fillets.
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Imports of “Catfish” to U.S.
02,0004,0006,0008,000
10,000
12,00014,00016,00018,00020,000
1,00
0s lb
.
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
119%
139%
149%
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IMPORTS - COUNTRY OF ORIGIN
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
95 96 97 98 99 00 01
VIETNAM BRAZIL OTHER
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IMPORTS VS U.S. FROZEN FILLET SUPPLY
02468
10121416
95 96 97 98 99 00 01
PERC
ENT
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VIETNAM IMPORTS VS FARMER PRICES
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 6/02
% O
F U
S F
RO
ZE
N F
ILL
ET
SU
PP
LY
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
FA
RM
ER
PR
ICE
S (
CE
NT
S/L
B)
FROZEN FILLETS FARMER PRICE
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Industry Response to Imports• Legislation
– “Country of Origin” labeling - MS, LA ?
– Removal of Channel Catfish images on import packaging - NO
– Seek to have ‘Catfish’ name removed from non-Ictalurid fish species - 1 YEAR BAN, U.S.
• Advertising– Concentrate US safety/health standards - CHEMICALS ?
– Imports are trying to mislead consumers - TCI
• Legal– Anti-dumping case-CFA PASS THE FIRST HURDLE
Shrimp/Crawfish Industry - EVALUATING
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U.S. OR VIETNAM?
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What’s Causing Low Catfish Prices?
• Increased Vietnamese frozen fillet imports
• Economic uncertainty
• Stagnant per capita consumption
• On-farm inventories up
• Processing capacity (up)
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U.S. CATFISH INVENTORYJULY 1, 2002 vs 2001
10
11
12
13
14
%
FOODFISH STOCKERS FINGERLINGS
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CATFISH FEED SALES(32 % PROTEIN)
500
600
700
800
900
94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02(p)
1000
'S T
ON
TCI and Crews
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U.S. Catfish Round Weight Processed
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
1,00
0s o
f lbs
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00
'01
'02(
p)
* Round-weight process has be flat for the last 3 years.
Source: USDA Economics and Statistics System, NASS and Crews
4 %
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Total Producer Catfish Sales
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
1,00
0s o
f Dol
lars
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00
'01
'02(
p)
Total 2002 producer sales (processed) down $35 million from 2001, down $94million from 2000.
Source: USDA Economics and Statistics System, NASS and Crews
- 9 %
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Total Processor Catfish Sales
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
1,00
0s o
f Dol
lars
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
'02(
p)
Total 2002 processor sales down $21 million from 2001.
Source: USDA Economics and Statistics System, NASS and Crews
- 3 %
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US Catfish Fillet Pricethat the Processor Receives 2000 - 2002
FRESH FROZEN
2.30
2.40
2.50
2.60
2.70
2.80
2.90
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2000 2001 2002
2.30
2.40
2.50
2.60
2.70
2.80
2.90
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2000 2001 2002
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PRODUCER’S EFFICIENCY
• Processors requiring increased fish size• 1980’s => 1.00 - 1.25 lb average weight• 1990’s => 1.25 - 1.50 lb average weight• 2000’s => 1.50 - 2.00+ lb average weight
• Larger fish require longer production cycle• From 24 months to 36 months (from spawn to skillet)
– increased production risks– increases production costs
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Growing Larger Catfish7,000 Stocking Rate; 6 in Fingerlings
Item Unit 1.50 # 2.00 # Dif
Growth Time Month 15.35 19.33 4.98
Death Loss % 31 39 8
Production Lb/Ac/Yr 5690 5333 357
FCR # Feed/# Gain 2.25 2.61 0.36
VC $/Lb 49.03 54.38 5.35
TC $/Lb 62.23 68.46 6.23
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CATFISH FEED PRICES(32 % PROTEIN)
150
175
200
225
250
275
94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02(p) '03(p)
$/T
ON
MS
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Cash Costs for a 250 Acre Catfish Farm Stocking 7,500 5" Fish Per Year
-1,200
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
190 200 210 220 230 240 250 260 270 280 290 300 310
Feed price per ton
Inco
me
Abo
ve V
aria
ble
Cos
ts
75 cents/lb
Fish Price
55 cents/lb
60 cents/lb
65 cents/lb
70 cents/lb
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Lower Prices and Net Returns• The cost to produce U.S. farm-raised catfish
is in the range of $0.60 - $0.75 / lb
• At the Present Price of $0.50 - 0.60 / lb:– Less efficient farmers will:
• Lose money• May not cover cash and capital costs• Go “belly up”
– More efficient farmers will:• Receive a lower profit• May not cover all variable costs• Can stay in business in the short-run
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GROWTH IN THE U. S.
• EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, AT A SLOWER PACE• BECOMING MORE EFFICIENT
PRODUCERS AND PROCESSORS
• ALLIANCE/CONSOLIDATION PRODUCER/PROCESSOR/FEEDMILL/GENETICS
• U. S. HAS COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE INDEPENDENT PRODUCERS/PROCESSORS FEED GRAINS INFRASTRUCTURE MARKETS
ONE BILLION POUNDS BY 2010 ??????????
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AQUACULTURAL SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
“TEACH A PERSON HOW TO FISH -- HE CAN SURVIVE”
“TEACH A PERSON HOW TO GROW FISH -- HE CAN MAKE A LIVING” ??
Jerry R. Crews
Auburn University
SRAOC SEPTEMBER 2002