Intelligence Estimate: Rise of al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent

Betsy BennettU.S. Intelligence & National Security December 13, 2014

Purpose: To assess the potential rise and trends of al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) and the threat posed to U.S. interests.

Scope: This estimate does include: The formation and background of AQIS U.S. interests at stake Four key judgments: drivers and trends of AQIS Two year scope period Information current as of November 15, 2014

This estimate does not include: A history of Islamic terrorism in India/South Asia Rise of other Islamic terrorist movements in the region Counterterrorism strategy by the U.S. or India

Purpose & Scope

Key Judgment I: This paper judges with high confidence that AQIS is working with regional terrorist groups on recruitment and future attacks. It is almost certain that this collaboration increases AQIS’ threat and lethality to U.S. interests.

Key Judgment II: This paper judges with high confidence that the preservation of South Asia as an al-Qaeda safe haven is a primary goal for AQIS.

Key Judgment III: This paper judges with moderate confidence that the rise of ISIL in India and globally is primary motivation for AQIS to succeed.

Key Judgments

September 3, 2014: al-Qaeda leader announced establishment of AQIS

U.S. Interests at stake Counterterrorism efforts over past

decade Regional stability Stability of India as a strategic

partner

Timing: Important Develop understanding before

threat materializes into major attack OR before AQIS able to attain goals Determine implications on U.S.

Afghanistan exit strategy

AQIS Attacks

9/2: Targeted and killed officer in Pakistan’s army

9/13: Failed attack on Indian navy ship

Counterterrorism

10/15: UAV strike killed AQIS Shura council member

11/09: Confirmed, U.S. operation killed two AQIS officials along Af-Pak border

Background

Key Judgment I

High Confidence: AQIS is working with regional terrorist groups on recruitment and future attacks.

Information News and social media confirm collaboration with Indian

Mujahideen and Students of the Islamic Movement of India Plan: to turn region into “Syria and Iraq where violence is

continuously happening”

Judgment Very likely coordination will continue over next six months-

two years Collaboration raises capabilities to conduct attacks

Threat to U.S. counterterrorism, interests, and individuals in India & Pakistan

Alternative View Collaboration not necessarily aid the rise of AQIS

Key Judgment II

Information High quality number of sources and analysis confirm motivation Statements clear: goal to preserve Afghanistan and sanctuaries in

Pakistan Attacks match motivation and statements

Judgment Attacks very likely next six months to two years to strengthen

stronghold Threat to U.S. counterterrorism efforts & regional stability interests

Alternative View Could act as al-Qaeda affiliate: focused on local or near enemy

High Confidence: the preservation of South Asia as an al-Qaeda safe haven is a primary goal for AQIS.

Key Judgment III

Moderate Confidence: that the rise of ISIL in India and globally is primary motivation for AQIS to succeed.

Information Rise of ISIL in India: high confidence Some inconsistent information on

AQIS response and implications

Judgment AQIS not in response to rise of ISIL

in India Driver to preserve al-Qaeda as

supreme global terrorist organization

Alternative View AQIS is a direct response to ISIL,

group not in formation for two years

Protestors hold ISIS flag in Srinagar, India.

Information Gaps

New nature of AQIS No information or trends to compare

judgments to Need more analysis of on the ground

reporting Little information on actual capabilities

Autonomy of AQIS Information gap: direct command and

control of AQIS under al-Qaeda core Could change judgment II

Quality of information AQIS statements: need verification on

capabilities Rhetoric seeking validation as strong

dangerous group

“The establishment of (AQIS) is a significant milestone towards uniting the efforts of the Muslims of this region.” Resurgence

“It is time for us to fight fire with fire…striking the heart and lifeblood of their economy, represented by international trade and finance.” Resurgence