april 2015 no 5 / 2015 - БНБ€¦ · bon ds corpor ate bonds uc structur al product s of public...
TRANSCRIPT
> The domestic money market slightly decreased in both
activity and volumes in April; the interest rates
increased, excluding the average interest rate of the
unsecured overnight deposit deals, which kept the level
from the preceding month.
> Two-months high of the euro against the dollar in April.
> A decrease in the monthly turnover of the Bulgarian
Stock Exchange and in the SOFIX index in April.
APRIL 2015 No 5 / 2015
3
1. MONEY MARKET
In April the interbank money market volume was
with a slight decrease compared to March, which
is illustrated by the lower volumes of deposit
deals. The average daily volume of the interbank
money market increased.
The trade remained focused mainly in the
overnight maturity; the interest rate throughout
the month remained stable, without any changes.
Georgy Tsvetkov
(+359 2) 9145 1611
4
Interbank Money Market, volumes (BGN mln)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
November
2014
December
2014
January
2015
February
2015
March 2015 April 2015
deposit deals repo deals
The overall volume of the domestic money market
increased by 4.05 per cent to BGN 1497.2 million.
The deposit lending deals volume went down by
16.08 per cent to BGN 873.9 million, while the
repo-deals volume increased by 56.74 per cent, to
BGN 623.3 million.
The monthly volume of the euromoney market
term transactions decreased by 4.42 per cent and
reached BGN 6000.7 million. The deposit lending
deals (in all currencies: EUR, USD, CHF and GBP)
are with a decrease of 4.59 per cent, to BGN
5985.1 million, illustrated mainly by a decrease in
the euro-denominated and the U.S. dollar-
denominated deals. The repo-deals registered in
April reached BGN 15.6 million.
Interbank Euromoney Market, volumes (BGN equivalent in mln)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
EUR EUR EUR USD USD USD Other Other Other
February
2015
March 2015 April 2015 February
2015
March 2015 April 2015 February
2015
March 2015 April 2015
deposit deals repo deals
Decrease in volumes of the
deposit deals and a
substantial increase in
volumes of the repo-deals…
… in combination with a
decrease in the euromoney
market volumes.
5
The banking system remained highly liquid. The
average daily excess reserves in April slightly
decreased (by 4.99 per cent) and reached BGN
5098.0 million, following BGN 5365.6 million in
March (excess reserves are calculated taking into
account a calendar month, and not the actual
maintenance period – from the 4th working day of
each month till the 3rd working day of the next).
There was not a single day during the month with
“negative” excess reserves for the system.
Interbank money market and excess reserves,
April 2015 (BGN mln)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
01.04
02.04
03.04
06.04
07.04
08.04
09.04
14.04
15.04
16.04
17.04
20.04
21.04
22.04
23.04
24.04
27.04
28.04
29.04
30.04
excess reserves money market
Liquidity in the banking system is also influenced
every month by: (1) monetary flows through
government securities - bills and bonds of the
Ministry of Finance, which in April resulted in a
net outflow from banks of BGN 44.1 million; and
(2) pension transfers, which in April led to an
increase in system resources by BGN 871.0
million.
The liquidity in the
banking system
remained significant.
6
Deposit Deals, April 2015 (BGN mln)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
01.0
4
02.0
4
03.0
4
06.0
4
07.0
4
08.0
4
09.0
4
14.0
4
15.0
4
16.0
4
17.0
4
20.0
4
21.0
4
22.0
4
23.0
4
24.0
4
27.0
4
28.0
4
29.0
4
30.0
4
all deposit deals unsecured of which overnight secured
1.1. Interbank market: deposit lending and
repo- transactions
Deposit lending deals have a prevailing share in
the interbank money market volume (deposit
lending and repo-deals); for April this share
decreased and reached 58.4 per cent, after 72.4
per cent in March; the repo-deals comprised 41.6
per cent compared to 27.6 per cent in March.
Unsecured market
In April term unsecured deposit lending between
market participants amounted to BGN 873.9
million and 89.1 per cent of these (BGN 778.9
million) were overnight deals. This share
decreased compared to March, when 99.4 per
cent (BGN 1035.5 million) of the deals were
overnight.
7
Maturity breakdown of the unsecured interbank trades
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Apr'14 Jun'14 Aug'14 Oct'14 Dec'14 Feb'15 Apr'15
ON up to 1W above 1W up to 1M above 1M up to 3M above 3M
`
Unsecured Deposit Market, April 2015 (BGN mln)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
01.04
02.04
03.04
06.04
07.04
08.04
09.04
14.04
15.04
16.04
17.04
20.04
21.04
22.04
23.04
24.04
27.04
28.04
29.04
30.04
overnight other
Overnight Market Rates, April 2015
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
01.0
4
02.0
4
03.0
4
06.0
4
07.0
4
08.0
4
09.0
4
14.0
4
15.0
4
16.0
4
17.0
4
20.0
4
21.0
4
22.0
4
23.0
4
24.0
4
27.0
4
28.0
4
29.0
4
30.0
4
Effective overnight rate - unsecured deposit deals SOFIBID ON SOFIBOR ON
8
The monthly average interest rate of the
overnight unsecured deposit lending in April
remained unchanged, at the level of 0.01%.
The monthly average of the LEONIA, a reference
rate based on the unsecured overnight deposit
lending by a panel of banks also remained
unchanged and amounted to 0.01%. Hence the
size of the BNB base interest rate for May 2015
was again set at 0.01%.
LEONIA / EONIA, April 2015
-0.10
-0.08
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
0.00
0.02
01.0
4
02.0
4
03.0
4
06.0
4
07.0
4
08.0
4
09.0
4
14.0
4
15.0
4
16.0
4
17.0
4
20.0
4
21.0
4
22.0
4
23.0
4
24.0
4
27.0
4
28.0
4
29.0
4
30.0
4
LEONIA EONIA
The money market yield curve decreased more
visibly throughout maturities longer than 7
months.
The money market
yield curve
reflects the
average value of
SOFIBID
and SOFIBOR
0.000
0.200
0.400
0.600
0.800
1.000
1.200
1.400
ON
2W 1M 3M 5M 7M 9M 11M
30.04.2015
31.03.2015
9
Secured market
There were no secured deposit lending deals in
April, while the repo-deals share was 41.6 per
cent of the total interbank money market
transactions volume (BGN 623.3 million); this
share substantially increased compared to March,
when it amounted to 27.6 per cent (BGN 397.6
million).
MARKETS:
value in
millions of
BGN
equivalent in
millions of
EUR
value in
millions of
EUR
equivalent in
millions of
BGN
value in
millions of
USD
equivalent in
millions of
BGN
equivalent in
millions of
EUR
equivalent in
millions of
BGN
equivalent in
millions of
EUR
TYPES OF DEALS:
unsecured deposit deals 873.9 446.8 68.4 133.8 3229.0 5845.7 2988.9 5.7 2.9
secured deposit deals - - - - - - - - -
repo of Bulgarian govt securities* 623.3 318.7 8.0 15.6 - - - - -
outright purchases of short-term BGN Bulgarian govt securities 16.1 8.2 - - - - - - -
outright purchases of short-term forex Bulgarian govt securities - - 48.4 94.7 - - - - -
outright purchases of long-term** BGN Bulgarian govt securities* 71.9 36.8 - - - - - - -
outright purchases of long-term** forex Bulgarian govt securities* - - 37.9 74.1 - - - - -
* at market value; for repos - only the security purchase (money lending) leg
** bonds of over 1 year in original maturity
Source: BNB, from commercial banks' daily reports
BULGARIAN INTERBANK MONEY MONEY MARKET AND EUROMONEY MARKET DEALS
BETWEEN BULGARIAN BANKS, APRIL 2015 (in millions of the respective currencies)
interbank money market euromoney market deals between Bulgarian banks
deals in BGN deals in EUR deals in USD deals in other currencies
1.2. Outright interbank purchases of
securities on the secondary market
On the interbank secondary market for
government securities, the market value of the
outright purchases of all maturities in April
reached BGN 88.0 million (decrease of 53.47%
compared to BGN 189.1 million in March).
10
Outright deals in Bulgarian government securities,
April 2015 (BGN mln)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
01.0
4
02.0
4
03.0
4
06.0
4
07.0
4
08.0
4
09.0
4
14.0
4
15.0
4
16.0
4
17.0
4
20.0
4
21.0
4
22.0
4
23.0
4
24.0
4
27.0
4
28.0
4
29.0
4
30.0
4
BGN-denominated securities up to 12M BGN-denominated securities over 12Mforex-denominated securities
On the euromoney market in April the volume of
outright purchases of government securities
decreased substantially by 29.38% and reached
BGN 168.8 million, after BGN 238.9 million in
March.
11
2. CAPITAL MARKET
The following primary auctions of government
securities were carried out by the Bulgarian
National Bank as an agent of the Ministry of
Finance in April:
-On 20th of April for a batch of an issue
№BG2040115219/22.04.2015 (10Y government
securities) with maturity date 22.04.2025, at BGN
50 million and interest rate 2.30%; for
participation in the auction were admitted orders
at BGN 122.1 million; the Ministry of Finance
approved bids for BGN 50 million.
The monthly turnover of corporate bonds listed on
the stock exchange continued its severe decline
during the month, and comprised BGN 16,5
million (BGN 0,9 thousand daily average), while it
was BGN 0,1 million in March. This was due to
single high volume deals, which accumulated up
to BGN 16 million on the 07.04.2015.
Ivo Grigorov
(+359 2) 9145 1624
12
On the secondary market the prices of the
compensatory instruments registered slight
changes. The monthly stock-exchange turnover of
compensatory instruments increased and
accumulated approximately to BGN 2,0 million
(BGN 0,11 million daily average) while for March
it consisted only of BGN 1,6 million.
13
ASSET MARKETS
GROSS ASSETS:
real estate
(National Statistical
Institute – quarterly data)
NET ASSETS:
equity
commodities
forex
14
EQUITY CAPITAL (NET ASSETS)
The monthly registered turnover of shares on the
stock-exchange market for April continued to
decline, and accumulated to BGN 8.0 million
(daily average of 0,05 million), while in March it
was 18.1 million, which is a decline of 55.74%. A
substantial shares turnover was registered by CB
Central Cooperative Bank AD-Sofia, Chimimport
AD-Sofia, Advance Terrafund REIT-Sofia and
Enemona AD-Kozloduy.
DEALING IN SECURITIES REGISTERED ON THE BSE-SOFIA: STOCK-EXCHANGE AND OTC TURNOVER (in millions of BGN) APRIL 2015
MARKETS
MAIN MARKET
ALTERNATIVE MARKET
Trade in equities not registered on the
BSE-Sofia
Premium
Equities Segmen
t
Standard
Equities
Segment
Special Purpose Vehicles Segment
Bonds Segment
Compensation
Instruments Segment
Exchange Traded
Products Segment***
Subscription
Rights Segment
Equities
Segment
Special Purpose Vehicles Segment
municipal bonds
corporate bonds
UCIT
Structural
products
of public companies
of non-public companies
BSE deals 1.7 6.3 2.3 0 16.5 1.9 0 0 0.1 0.4 1.0 0 0 of which:
regular deals 1.7 6.3 2.3 0 16.5 1.9 0 0 0.1 0.4 1.0 - - privatis. segment deals (cash) 0 0 - - - - - - 0 0
Privatis. Segm. (compensative)* 0 0 - - - - - - - 0 - 0 0
Initial Public Offering
Segment* 0 0 - 0 0 - - 0 - 0 - - -
OTC deals (purchases and sales, repo, tender purchases, redemption, registration etc.)** 0.7 21.6 0.6 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.8 8.8 - -
Source: BSE-Sofia daily reports
* Not included in the above totals
** reported through BSE trading platform
*** The Exchange Traded Products Segment was created in May 2014; it replaced the former UCIT's Segment and Structured Products Segment
Ivo Grigorov
(+359 2) 9145 1624
15
The value of the off stock-exchange deals
reported using the stock-exchange platform
during March, added up to BGN 22,3 million. Of
which a more substantial amount was registered by
the shares of Chimsnab Bulgaria AD, Velgraph
Asset Management AD-Sofia, Synthetica AD-Sofia
and Delta Credit REIT.
The main equity prices index of the Bulgarian stock
market SOFIX showed in April a negative trend
(2.22% decrease). For the same period the leading
European economy index (Germany) DAX
decreased with 4.2%, whereas the Romanian BET
showed a positive movement (6.68 % increase).
17
The index of the equity prices of the banks listed
on the BSE-Sofia showed stable movement during
the month similar in general to the movement of
the еurozone banks’ index.
There were no issues placed on the Initial Public
Offering segment of the BSE-Sofia in February.
3. FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET
The euro rose against the dollar in April, reaching
a two-months peak, due to the ever increasing
expectations that Greece and its creditors will
reach an agreement on economic reforms that
Athens must take to receive additional financial
assistance. The decline of the dollar was
influenced by unfavorable economic news from
the labour and housing markets of the US, which
were weaker than expected. The growth of the
single european currency was also supported by
final data on inflation in the eurozone in March,
where consumer prices rose by 0.1% on a
monthly basis and also by the positive news of
rapid economic growth in Spain in the first quarter
of 2015
In early April, the USD-BGN remained relatively
constant, due to the reduced market activity in
connection with the Easter holidays in the Catholic
community. At the end of the first ten days,
followed a sharp rise in the dollar against the lev,
as on 14 April was registered a maximum value of
the dollar against the lev-BGN 1.85141 . By the
end of the month gradually was formed an
upward trend of the lev against the dollar in the
last working day in April the dollar registered a
Lubomir Tonev
(+359 2) 9145 1608
Pavlina Babunova (+359 2) 9145 1907
18
minimum value of BGN 1.74394. The official
average rate of the dollar against the lev for the
month was 1.81020, remained almost at the level
of the average rate from the previous month.
20
For a month in a row the total turnover of the
forex market (gross sum of all purchases and
sales by reporting entities) increased and reached
in April EUR48 009,7 million. The increase of the
total turnover, compared to the previous month,
was EUR 7 632,6 million. The average daily
turnover for the month was EUR 2 400,5 million,
and also increased compared to March. The
increase in total turnover was realised in the three
main segments of the trade- trade between banks
and BNB, the trade between banks and their
customers and interbank trading (without the
participation of BNB).
21
The interbank spot trading between BNB and the
banks reached in April EUR 21 287,3 million. The
increase in comparison with the previous month
was EUR 3 813,4 million. Тhe central bank was a
net seller of foreign currency to the banks with a
negative balance of EUR 126,7 million for the
month. As a servicing bank of the state budget,
BNB was a net buyer of foreign exchange from
budget organisations in non-cash payments in
April with a balance of EUR 478,1 million. At the
counter transactions with citizens and budgetary
organisations, BNB was a net seller of foreign
currency for that month, with negative balance of
EUR 2,4 million.
22
The turnover in the interbank trade, without the
participation of BNB, reached in April EUR 312,0
million. The increase, compared to the previous
month was EUR 28.0 million.
The trade between banks and their customers in
April increased and reached EUR 4 300,1million.
By comparison with March the increase was EUR
319,1 million and the sales of the banks to their
customers exceeded the purchases from them
with EUR 406,5 million.
24
Foreign exchange market April 2015 SPOT (in mln of EUR)
Purchases Sales Balance
Interbank market (commercial banks) 312.0 312.0 0
(Commercial) banks with customers 1946.8 2353.3 -406.5
- of which: with nonresidents 73.5 333.5 -260.0
BNB total 11073.6 10724.7 348.9
BNB with banks 10580.3 10707.0 -126.7
of which: *with banks - SPOT 1184.0 9602.0 -8418.0
*with banks - TOM 10.0 0 10.0
*with banks - TODAY 9386.3 1105.0 8281.3
*with banks - NOTES 0 0 0
BNB transactions with budget organisations on account 493.4 15.3 478.1
BNB notes operations at counters 0.0 2.4 -2.4
Source: BNB, from banks’ and BNB’s daily reports
25
TENDENCES
Short-term expectations:
– the interbank money market to keep its overall activity and record low interest
rates.
– USD/BGN to move within BGN 1,78 - 1,82.
– a decline of SOFIX due to the uncertainty in the European
market, movement within the range of 490 – 510 points.
Forex swaps and forwards in EUR terms (estimate)
FX swap and forward transactions - banks with final customers (in mln of
EUR)
Purchases Sales Balance
April 2015 2445.9 2485.4 -39.5
- of which: with nonresidents 2375.1 2368.7 6.5
FX structure (percentage)
EUR 95.6 95.4
Others * 4.4 4.6
* prevail USD
Interbank FX swap and forward transactions (in mln of
EUR)
Purchases Sales Balance
April 2015 40.0 40.0 0.0
FX structure (percentage)
EUR 100.0 100.0
The figures for foreign exchange swap deals include both the sales of foreign currecies
for BGN and the subsequent purchase operations.
Source: BNB, from banks’ daily reports