april 2014 ceri commodity report — natural gas · (aeo 2014)1 suggests that the shale gas...

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Relevant Independent Objecve In the meanme the industry has made considerable strides in developing techniques to reduce the enormous amount of water used in hydraulic fracturing, partly due to environmental concerns and as a cost-reducing measure. Recycling, using less water per fracture, or even geng away from water altogether by using hydrocarbons instead are all approaches now rounely used by the industry. With some wells requiring as much as 5 million gallons of water to frack, 2 measures to cut water use can mean big savings for drillers. The extent of those savings varies with locaon and depends partly on the cost of acquiring water, so producers in the Marcellus shale of Pennsylvania, where surface water is abundant, will generally pay less to bring in water than those in the drier parts of the Eagle Ford in Texas, where local supply is restricted to groundwater and fracking water may need to be transported some distance to the well. Acquiring fresh water is however, only one piece of the water puzzle. Wastewater recovery from fracking is also expensive. This wastewater includes flowback water from inial intensive fracking – usually no more than 20 percent of the total water used – and produced water, which flows to the surface with the gas during the rest of the well's life. A Marcellus well might generate 1 million gallons (24,000 42-gallon barrels) of water as flowback and perhaps 100 gallons a week of produced water through the rest of the well's life. 3 Recycling the water by running it through a simple filtraon system to remove coarser sediments can cost less than $1 per barrel (bbl) of water. More thorough methods of recycling cost a lot more, anywhere from $5-$8/bbl for intermediate levels of treatment to $10-$12/bbl if the company decided to perform high end treatment and desalinaon. It is up to individual companies to choose on the method of recycling, if any. Usually, as long as it is cheaper than pung water in disposal wells that are further away from producon wells, it makes sense to recycle. In Texas, an abundance of suitable wells (esmated 10,000) in which to store wastewater makes disposal costs cheap, at around $2/bbl of water, whereas in the Marcellus water has to be trucked to the nearest suitable storage sites in Ohio at a cost of up to $15/bbl. 4 Such logiscs lead to counter-intuive results, in which producers in water-rich Pennsylvania recycle around 90 April 2014 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas Waterless Fracking Dinara Millington It is a well-known fact that the US is experiencing record gas producon levels from their unconvenonal gas plays with an advent of direconal drilling in combinaon with hydraulic fracturing (or fracking). The US Energy Informaon Agency in their recent Annual Energy Outlook (AEO 2014) 1 suggests that the shale gas producon is the largest contributor to the total US gas producon, growing by more than 10 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), from 9.7 Tcf in 2012 to 19.8 Tcf in 2040 (see Figure 1). The shale gas share of total US natural gas producon would increase from 40 percent in 2012 to 53 percent in 2040. Figure 1: US Natural Gas Producon (Reference case), 1990-2040 (trillion cubic feet) Source: History: US Energy Informaon Administraon, Natural Gas Annual 2012, DOE/EIA-0131(2012) (Washington, DC, December 2013). Projecons: AEO2014 Naonal Energy Modeling System, run REF2014.D102413A. CERI Commodity Report – Natural Gas Editor-in-Chief: Dinara Millington ([email protected]) Contents Featured Arcle ................................................................................. 1 Natural Gas Prices.............................................................................. 4 Weather ............................................................................................ 6 Consumpon and Producon............................................................. 8 Transportaon................................................................................... 10 Storage .............................................................................................. 12 Liquefied Natural Gas ........................................................................ 15 Drilling Acvity .................................................................................. 17

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Page 1: April 2014 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas · (AEO 2014)1 suggests that the shale gas production is the largest contributor to the total US gas production, growing by more than

Relevant • Independent • Objective

In the meantime the industry has made considerable strides in developing techniques to reduce the enormous amount of water used in hydraulic fracturing, partly due to environmental concerns and as a cost-reducing measure. Recycling, using less water per fracture, or even getting away from water altogether by using hydrocarbons instead are all approaches now routinely used by the industry. With some wells requiring as much as 5 million gallons of water to frack,2 measures to cut water use can mean big savings for drillers. The extent of those savings varies with location and depends partly on the cost of acquiring water, so producers in the Marcellus shale of Pennsylvania, where surface water is abundant, will generally pay less to bring in water than those in the drier parts of the Eagle Ford in Texas, where local supply is restricted to groundwater and fracking water may need to be transported some distance to the well. Acquiring fresh water is however, only one piece of the water puzzle. Wastewater recovery from fracking is also expensive. This wastewater includes flowback water from initial intensive fracking – usually no more than 20 percent of the total water used – and produced water, which flows to the surface with the gas during the rest of the well's life. A Marcellus well might generate 1 million gallons (24,000 42-gallon barrels) of water as flowback and perhaps 100 gallons a week of produced water through the rest of the well's life.3 Recycling the water by running it through a simple filtration system to remove coarser sediments can cost less than $1 per barrel (bbl) of water. More thorough methods of recycling cost a lot more, anywhere from $5-$8/bbl for intermediate levels of treatment to $10-$12/bbl if the company decided to perform high end treatment and desalination. It is up to individual companies to choose on the method of recycling, if any. Usually, as long as it is cheaper than putting water in disposal wells that are further away from production wells, it makes sense to recycle. In Texas, an abundance of suitable wells (estimated 10,000) in which to store wastewater makes disposal costs cheap, at around $2/bbl of water, whereas in the Marcellus water has to be trucked to the nearest suitable storage sites in Ohio at a cost of up to $15/bbl.4 Such logistics lead to counter-intuitive results, in which producers in water-rich Pennsylvania recycle around 90

April 2014

CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas

Waterless Fracking Dinara Millington It is a well-known fact that the US is experiencing record gas production levels from their unconventional gas plays with an advent of directional drilling in combination with hydraulic fracturing (or fracking). The US Energy Information Agency in their recent Annual Energy Outlook (AEO 2014)1 suggests that the shale gas production is the largest contributor to the total US gas production, growing by more than 10 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), from 9.7 Tcf in 2012 to 19.8 Tcf in 2040 (see Figure 1). The shale gas share of total US natural gas production would increase from 40 percent in 2012 to 53 percent in 2040. Figure 1: US Natural Gas Production (Reference case), 1990-2040 (trillion cubic feet)

Source: History: US Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas Annual 2012, DOE/EIA-0131(2012) (Washington, DC, December 2013). Projections: AEO2014 National Energy Modeling System, run REF2014.D102413A.

CERI Commodity Report – Natural Gas Editor-in-Chief: Dinara Millington ([email protected]) Contents Featured Article ................................................................................. 1 Natural Gas Prices.............................................................................. 4 Weather ............................................................................................ 6 Consumption and Production............................................................. 8 Transportation................................................................................... 10 Storage .............................................................................................. 12 Liquefied Natural Gas ........................................................................ 15 Drilling Activity .................................................................................. 17

Page 2: April 2014 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas · (AEO 2014)1 suggests that the shale gas production is the largest contributor to the total US gas production, growing by more than

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percent of their flowback and produced water, while those in arid Texas generally do not recycle more than 20 percent. Efforts to cut the cost of recycling and general water use have led to a number of technological advances in recent years including the adoption of brine-tolerant friction reducers.5 These enable flowback brine to be used in fracking mixtures without the need for desalination, which was previously required to avoid performance loss during fracking. Field data collected from case studies in Montney and Horn River show the ability of the high brine tolerant reducers to perform at a level consistent with traditional products used in fresh water.6 Other methods include the use of gels in fracking fluids, thus increasing the effectiveness of the proppants in opening up cracks for shale gas to flow and minimizing the water use. In the Eagle Ford, Marathon Oil switched from slick-water fracking, a traditional water-based method developed by Mitchell Energy in Texas' Barnett Shale several years ago, to so-called cross-link, using a gel derived from guar beans to thicken the fracking liquid, as a result this had cut the water used in some of its wells by approximately 40 percent.7 While the use of gels in fracking fluids is sometimes referred to as waterless fracking, completely waterless fracking is possible by using hydrocarbons themselves to open up cracks in shale seams. The first shale wells drilled in the mid-20th century used hydrocarbons such as propane, butane or pentane for fracking, before producers replaced them with cheaper water. But the technique is now making a comeback. Canadian company Gasfrac has performed around 2,100 fracking operations using liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) as the fracking agent in 900 locations in Canada (since 2007) and the US (since 2011).8 Gasfrac has developed an innovative closed stimulation process and injection method, utilizing gelled LPG rather than conventional frac fluids. This involves pumping an LPG-based gel containing primarily propane, sand or other proppants into the shale, creating enough pressure to widen cracks and allow gas to flow. Their LPG gel properties include low surface tension, low viscosity, low density, along with solubility within naturally occurring reservoir hydrocarbons – all of which when added together, create more effective fracture lengths, enabling higher initial and long term production of the well. Another added advantage facilitated through the

LPG process, is the ability to evenly distribute proppant with the gelled slurry during pumping, thereby decreasing the chance of proppant settling in the formations (see Figure 2). The gel can generate a higher pay zone height throughout pumping and subsequent long-term production. Heat and pressure then vaporize the gel, allowing it to flow back up to the surface with the shale gas enabling to recover 100 percent of the fracturing fluids within days of stimulation. Figure 2: LPG vs. Conventional Fracking Fluids

Source: Gasfrac website

The technique is particularly suited to shallower wells, where pressure is relatively low. For deeper wells, water may be more effective as it compresses much less than LPG under pressure. One barrier for some users is that the upfront costs are higher than using water. However, the recovery rates can also be higher, as water itself can act as a barrier to gas flow, while it is easier to recycle LPG than water. While the technique will not be suitable for every well, it could come into its own as water conservation becomes a more pressing issue. Whether such efforts to reduce water usage will have a material effect on prospects for shale drilling in other potentially gas-rich but arid parts of the world, such as Mexico or South Africa's Karoo Basin, remains to be seen.

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Endnotes 1Energy Information Agency (EIA). “Annual Energy Outlook 2014”, May 7, 2014. http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/MT_naturalgas.cfm#shale_gas. Accessed on May 13, 2014. 2The Energy Collective, “Energy Facts: How Much Water Does Fracking for Shale Gas Consume?” April 6, 2013. http://theenergycollective.com/jessejenkins/205481/friday-energy-facts-how-much-water-does-fracking-shale-gas-consume. Accessed on May 12, 2014. 3Petroleum Economist. “The water conundrum”. December 2013-January 2014 issue. 4Environmental Science and Technology, “Water Use for Shale-Gas Production in Texas, U.S.”. http://www.beg.utexas.edu/staffinfo/Scanlon_pdf/Nicot+Scanlon_ES&T_12_Water%20Use%20Fracking.pdf. Accessed on May 13, 2014. 5Multistage fracking of horizontal wells have increased frac fluid requirements per well to a point where regulatory agencies are concerned. On top of that, restrictions limiting fresh water use and environmental concerns around flowback fluids created a demand for chemicals that can be used in high concentration brines. Several water treatment techniques are

being used to remove impurities from flowbacks for re-use as frac water. However most treatments do not remove dissolved salts, requiring either development of a brine tolerant friction reducer or distillation to maintain high well performance. Javad Paktinat, Bill James O'Neil, Michael Giovanni, et al, “Case Studies: Impact of High Salt Tolerant Friction Reducers on Freshwater Conversation in Canadian Shale Fracturing Treatments”. 2011. 6Ibid. 7Marathon is a leader in many technical fields, notably cross-linked polymer gels. Marathon gels afford better production control by invading rock pore spaces to reduce permeability. Companies all over the world license Marathon technology. Marathon Oil, “Living Our Values: 2012 Corporate Social Responsibility Report”, 2013. http://www.marathonoil.com/lov2012/addressing_challenges_in_the_eagle_ford_shale.shtml. Accessed on May 13, 2014. 8GasFrac. http://www.gasfrac.com/proven-proprietary-process.html. Accessed on May 12, 2014.

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Page 12: April 2014 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas · (AEO 2014)1 suggests that the shale gas production is the largest contributor to the total US gas production, growing by more than

CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas

Page 12

SOU

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Page 13: April 2014 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas · (AEO 2014)1 suggests that the shale gas production is the largest contributor to the total US gas production, growing by more than

Relevant • Independent • Objective

Page 13

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Page 14: April 2014 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas · (AEO 2014)1 suggests that the shale gas production is the largest contributor to the total US gas production, growing by more than

CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas

Page 14

SOU

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Page 15: April 2014 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas · (AEO 2014)1 suggests that the shale gas production is the largest contributor to the total US gas production, growing by more than

Relevant • Independent • Objective

Page 15

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Page 16: April 2014 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas · (AEO 2014)1 suggests that the shale gas production is the largest contributor to the total US gas production, growing by more than

CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas

Page 16

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Page 17: April 2014 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas · (AEO 2014)1 suggests that the shale gas production is the largest contributor to the total US gas production, growing by more than

Relevant • Independent • Objective

Page 17

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Page 18: April 2014 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas · (AEO 2014)1 suggests that the shale gas production is the largest contributor to the total US gas production, growing by more than

CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas

Page 18

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