apresentação john welch

Macroeconomic Prospects for Coffee Exporters

John H. [email protected]

+1 212 2312 0059

Macquarie Capital (USA) Ltd 125 W. 55th Street, New York, NY 10019 USA

September 2011

Macquarie Research is a division of Macquarie Group Limited, an affiliate and parent company of Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc., a registered broker - dealer and member of The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”). All transactions by U.S. investors involving securities discussed in this report must be effected through Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc., which assumes responsibility in the U.S. for the contents of this report.

This research report has been prepared in whole or part by foreign research analysts. These research analysts are not registered/qualified as a research analyst with FINRA, but instead have satisfied the registration/qualification requirements or other research-related standards of a foreign jurisdiction that have been recognized for these purposes by FINRA.

Please read Disclaimer on Pages 62-64.

World Economic Environment

STILL GOOD FOR COFFEE

Source: OECD, Bloomberg, Macquarie Capital (USA), September 2011

Base Case

GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS 2009 2010(F) 2011(F) 2012(F)

World GDP (Real % change) -0.2 4.0 3.9 20.9

United States -2.6 -1.8 2.0 2.9

Euro Zone -3.6 1.7 2.5 2.3

Japan -5.2 3.9 -0.6 1.7

Asia Ex-Japan 8.9 9.3 7.8 7.6

China 8.5 9.8 8.5 8.5

India 6.7 8.6 7.8 8.0

Latin America -1.9 6.4 4.4 3.9 Brazil -0.6 7.5 3.8 3.5World Inflation (CPI) 3.4 3.6 4.5 3.8

FED Funds target % 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25

Euro Area Target interest rate 1.00 1.00 1.75 3.00

Japan Target interest rate 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10

Oil Prices (Dated Brent - End of Year 68.3 87.5 124.0 117.0Exchange Rates

EUR/USD (Avg.) 1.43 1.34 1.43 1.45

USD/JPY (Avg) 93 81 85 95

The macro environment supports Ag investing

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, July 2011

Commodity + equities boom

Hedge against inflation

-4-202468

1012141618

Jul-0

0Ju

l-01

Jul-0

2Ju

l-03

Jul-0

4Ju

l-05

Jul-0

6Ju

l-07

Jul-0

8Ju

l-09

Jul-1

0Ju

l-11

%

US India UK China

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Jul-0

0

Jul-0

1

Jul-0

2

Jul-0

3

Jul-0

4

Jul-0

5

Jul-0

6

Jul-0

7

Jul-0

8

Jul-0

9

Jul-1

0

Jul-1

1

%

US fed fund target Euro interest rate UK base rate

Low interest rates

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

07/0

0

07/0

1

07/0

2

07/0

3

07/0

4

07/0

5

07/0

6

07/0

7

07/0

8

07/0

9

07/1

0

07/1

1

Ag Index

0

2040

6080

100

120140

160Crude oil

Ag index Crude oil

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Jul-0

0

Jul-0

1

Jul-0

2

Jul-0

3

Jul-0

4

Jul-0

5

Jul-0

6

Jul-0

7

Jul-0

8

Jul-0

9

Jul-1

0

Jul-1

1

Do llar index

Weaker US dollar

Agri commodities outperformed in 2010

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, June 2011

Jan-Jun 2011

-40 10 60 110

Gas Oil

Brent Crude

RBOB Gasoline

Corn

Heating Oil

Silver

Coffee

Gold

Aluminum

Cotton

Crude Oil

Natural Gas

Kansas Wheat

Lead

Feed Cattle

Soybeans

Live Cattle

Cocoa

Copper

Wheat

Zinc

Sugar

Lean Hogs

Wheat

% returns

Jan-Dec 2010

-40 10 60 110

Cotton

Silver

Coffee

Kansas Wheat

Corn

Soybeans

Sugar

Nickel

Live Cattle

Copper

Gold

Wheat

RBOB Gasoline

Feed Cattle

Gas Oil

Lean Hogs

Brent Crude

Heating Oil

A luminum

Crude Oil

Lead

Zinc

cocoa

Natural Gas

% returns

As fertiliser & energy prices rise again, cost pressures should start creeping up too

Source: USDA, Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, July 2011

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011f

US$/planted acres

Seed Fertilizer Chemicals Custom operations Fuel, lube, and electricity Repairs A llocated overhead

Fertilisers

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

US/t

Ammonia nitrate

Urea

Crude oil

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

US$/barrel

Longer-term supply trends remain supportive too

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009

Mn ha

Barley Corn Cotton RapeseedSoybean Sorghum Wheat

Limited expansion in global arable land

Source: USDA, UNEP, WRI, Macquarie Research, June 2011

Arable area per person

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

1970 1980 1990 2000 2020

Ha/person

Increased productivity would

be best way forward

World water shortageGlobal harvested area

Coffee

Coffee futures hit 34-year highs due to extremely tight inventories

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, June 2011

NY arabica reached historical highs Global arabica in deficit this season

7072747678808284

2005 /062006 /072007 /082008 /092009 /10f2010 /11f2011 /12f

S/D Arabica(Oct/Sep)

-4-3-2-10123456

Market Balance

Balance Production Consumption

100

150

200

250

300

US c/lb

Cash prices have risen even more than futures - signalling tight physical availability

Premium of mild arabica coffee is upPhysical cash prices have been soaring

Source: ICO, Macquarie Research, July 2011

0

20

40

60

80

100120

140

160

180

Jan-0

9Mar-

09May

-09Ju

l-09

Sep-09

Nov-09

Jan-1

0Mar-

10May

-10Ju

l-10

Sep-10

Nov-10

Jan-1

1

Colomb M ilds/Other M ilds Colomb M ilds/Braz NaturalsColomb M ilds/NY futures Oth M ilds/Robustas Braz Naturals/Robustas NY futures/London futures

5

10

15

20

25

30

M n bags

Central America Colombia

The major producers of quality arabica are struggling to

expand supply

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

01/0

5

07/0

5

01/0

6

07/0

6

01/0

7

07/0

7

01/0

8

07/0

8

01/0

9

07/0

9

01/1

0

07/1

0

01/1

1

US c/lb

Colombian milds RobustasOther milds Brazilian naturals

Relative scarcity of quality coffee has led to sharp drawdowns in stocks globally

Main coffee producers: there is a lack of premium arabicas World origin and consumer stocks

Source: ICE, ICO, Macquarie Research, April 2011

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

M n 60kg bags

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

%

Stocks at importing countries Stocks at exporting countriesStock ratio (%)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1995

/9619

97/98

19

99/00

2001

/0220

03/04

2005

/0620

07/08

2009

/10f

2011

/12f

Brazil* Mexico & C America Colombia Vietnam Indonesia*

Certified Arabica stocks also down

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

'000 bags

Brazil’s rising internal demand, appreciating currency and the 2011/12 “off year” = bullish

Strengthening BRL currency means higher coffee price required

A huge Brazilian crop due, but next year is an “off” year

Source: ICO, trade data, Macquarie Research, July 2011

0

10

20

30

40

50

60M n bags

Arabica prod Robusta prod Tot consumption

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

US$/bag

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

BRL index

BM F arabica NY arabica BRL index

The robusta market also tight on rising demand & low Vietnam/Indonesian supplies, but EU stocks are high

Robustas are still at a significant discount to arabicas

Source: Trade sources, ICO, Macquarie Research, March 2011

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

M n bags

Arabica Robusta

50

100

150

200

250

300

US c/lb

spread NY arabica futures London robusta futures

35

40

45

50

55

60

2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10f 2010/11f 2011/12f

S/D Robusta(Oct/Sep

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

M arket Balance

Balance Production Consumption

Certified LIFFE robusta stocks

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

Global demand for robusta growing rapidly

Potential for robusta to tighten

next season

Coffee demand remains highly inelastic: if anything we see growth in emerging markets

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1995

/9619

97/98

1999

/2000

2001

/0220

03/04

2005

/0620

07/08

2009

/10f

Mn bags

-3-2-101234567

% grow th

Consumption % change

Stable coffee demand growth Per capita consumption of coffee

Source: ICO, Macquarie Research, July 2011

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Coffee fundamentals and price outlook

Source: ICO, NKG Stats, Macquarie Research, July 2011

(m 60-kg bags) 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10f 2010/11f 2011/12fProductionb 116.9 125.5 132.8 127.6 134.1 132.3 140.8 Arabica 76.6 76.1 80.7 75.6 80.1 79.1 84.4 Robusta 40.3 49.4 52.1 52.0 53.4 52.8 56.4Growth 4.6% 7.3% 5.9% -3.9% 5.1% -1.3% 6.4%Consumption 118.5 121.5 124.6 130.2 133.6 136.0 137.4 Arabica 74.0 74.7 75.9 79.0 80.6 81.0 81.4 Robusta 44.5 46.8 48.8 51.2 53.0 55.0 56.0Growth 0.2% 2.5% 2.6% 4.5% 2.6% 1.8% 1.0%Balance -1.6 4.0 8.2 -2.6 0.6 -3.7 3.4 Arabica 2.6 1.4 4.9 -3.4 -0.4 -1.9 3.0 Robusta -4.2 2.6 3.3 0.8 0.4 -2.2 0.4Stocksc 49.6 41.8 39.3 32.6 33.7 30.0 33.4Stock ratio (%) 41.9 34.4 31.5 25.1 25.2 22.1 24.3a Oct-Sep. b For Southern Hemisphere producers, volumes adjusted from Apr-Mar crop years to fit in with Oct-Sep. c Gross stocks in exporting countries and estimated inventories in importing countries on September 30th.Prices NY Arabica (Coffee C) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20121 Qtr 112.3 115.4 143.2 113.5 134.5 255.6 240.02 Qtr 102.2 109.7 135.6 123.6 139.4 271.0 220.03 Qtr 102.1 116.4 137.8 124.8 174.2 250.0 210.04 Qtr 114.4 127.7 111.9 139.0 204.7 260.0 175.0Year 107.7 117.3 121.5 125.2 163.2 259.2 211.3

Brazil: The Present Has Arrived

BUT WHAT ABOUT THE FUTURE?

Brazil’s Future is bright no matter what mix of policies of the next administration

President Dilma will follow a mix from two sets of policies.

The difference is degree of one set over the other.

The Brazilian polity and the political elite have shown good judgment and prudence when making policy choices.

If monetary policy does most of the work, expect continued nominal and real appreciation of the BRL, higher interest rates and slower growth.

If fiscal policy does more of the work, expect a less strong real, lower interest rates, and higher growth.

BRAZIL: REAL GDP GROWTH VERSUS REAL INTEREST RATES

Source: Banco Central do Brasil, IBGE, Macquarie Capital (USA), September 2011

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

Q4 1997

Q3 1998

Q2 1999

Q1 2000

Q4 2000

Q3 2001

Q2 2002

Q1 2003

Q4 2003

Q3 2004

Q2 2005

Q1 2006

Q4 2006

Q3 2007

Q2 2008

Q1 2009

Q4 2009

Q3 2010

Q2 2011

Q1 2012

Q4 2012

Q3 2013

-

-

0

4

8

1

1

2

2

2

3

3

Re a l SELIC inte re st ra te

Re a l GDP Growth

Forecast

Economic Growth Recovers Rapidly BUT DEMAND GROWTH IS OUTSTRIPPING SUPPLY BY A WIDE MARGIN


-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Q4 1997

Q2 1999

Q4 2000

Q2 2002

Q4 2003

Q2 2005

Q4 2006

Q2 2008

Q4 2009

Q2 2011

Q4 2012

4 qtrs / 4 qtrs

`

R eal GD P

F orecast

N et E xp orts

D o m estic D em an d (Ab sorp tion )

V a lue Adde d

To grow above 4%, Brazil needs investment rates greater than 20%.


10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

2000.IV

2002.I

2003.I

I

2004.III

2005.I

V

2007.I

2008

.II

2009.III

2011 I

0 .0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

L o n g T erm G D P G ro w th R a te (R H S )

G ro ss S av in g s R a te (L H S )

G ro ss In ves tm en t R a te

Economic Growth Recovers Rapidly BUT DEMAND GROWTH IS OUTSTRIPPING SUPPLY BY A WIDE MARGIN

Source: Banco Central do Brasil, IBGE, Macquarie Capital (USA), September 2011 -5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

Jan-00

Aug-00

Mar-01

Oct-01

May-02

Dec-0

2

Jul-03

Feb-04

Sep-04

Apr-05

Nov-05

Jun-06

Jan-07

Aug-07

Mar-08

Oct-08

May-09

Dec-0

9

Jul-10

Feb-11

Sep-11

Inflation Gap

Output Gap

BRAZIL: COMBINED IPCA/IPCA-15 AND CORE INFLATION (% YoY)


0.0%

1.5%

3.0%

4.5%

6.0%

7.5%

9.0%

1/15/2

005

6/15/2

005

11/15

/2005

4/15/2

006

9/15/2

006

2/15/2

007

7/15/2

007

12/15

/2007

5/15/2

008

10/15

/2008

3/15/2

009

8/15/2

009

1/15/2

010

6/15/2

010

11/15

/2010

4/15/2

011

9/15/2

011

Headline IPCA/IPCA-15

Trimmed-Means & Smoothed Core

Ta rge t

Exclusion Core 7.10%

THE SELIC TARGET RATE IS STILL TOO LOW EVEN UNDER OPTIMISTIC TAYLOR RULES,BCB STILL NEEDS TO TIGHTEN


5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Jan-0

0

Oct-0

0

Jun-

01

Mar-0

2

Nov-0

2

Aug-0

3

Apr-0

4

Jan-0

5

Sep-0

5

Jun-

06

Mar-0

7

Nov-0

7

Aug-0

8

Apr-0

9

Jan-1

0

Sep-1

0

Jun-

11

Feb-1

2

Nov-1

2

Jul-1

3

A ctua l S E LIC Ta rge t

M in Taylo r Rule (r*=5% )

M ax Taylo r Rule (r*=11% )

F o recas t fro m B C F o cu s

HIGH MONEY GROWTH IN LOCKSTEP WITH CREDIT GROWTH


-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Feb-0

2

Apr-03

Jun-

04

Aug-05

Oct-06

Dec-0

7

Feb-0

9

Apr-10

Jun-

11

Brazil: Money and Credit Growth ( %y-o-y)

M1

Nondire cte d Cre dit

Tota l Cre dit

Mone ta ry Base Grow th

THE AVERAGE BASE RATE IS TOO LOW: THE BCB OR THE BNDES NEED TO RAISE RATES


5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Jan-0

0Oct-

00

Jun-01

Mar-02

Nov-02

Aug-03

May-04

Jan-0

5Oct-

05

Jun-06

Mar-07

Nov-07

Aug-08

May-09

Jan-1

0Oct-

10

Jun-11

Mar-12

Nov-12

Aug-13

Taylor Rule Max

Taylor Rule Min Average Base Rate

Forecast from BC Focus

FISCAL POLICY HAS EASED…HIGHER PRIMARY SURPLUSES, LOWER REAL INTEREST RATES


-14 .0 %

-12.0 %

-10.0 %

-8.0 %

-6.0 %

-4.0 %

-2.0 %

0.0 %

2.0 %

4.0 %

6.0 %

Oct-

95Aug

-96

Jun-

97Apr

-98

Feb-9

9Dec-

99O

ct-00

Aug-0

1Ju

n-02

Apr-0

3Feb

-04

Dec-0

4Oct

-05

Aug-0

6Ju

n-07

Apr-0

8Feb

-09

Dec-0

9Oct-

10Aug

-11

Jun-

12Apr

-13

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%Prim ary S u rp lu s (% G DP , L HS )

Real In terest Rate (RH S)

No min al Fiscal Balan ce (% G D P, LH S)

fo recast

Economic Growth Recovers Rapidly AND PERHAPS OVERVALUED


1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Sep-00

Jul-01

May-02

Mar-03

Jan-04

Nov-04

Sep-05

Jul-06

May-07

Mar-08

Jan-09

Nov-09

Sep-10

Jul-11

Equilibrium Nominal Exchange Rate Exchange Rate USD/BRL

June1.73

1.63

BRAZIL’S TERMS OF TRADE HAS SHOT UPWARD MASSIVELY


Brazil: Export Prices, Import Prices, and the Terms of Trade ( TOT)

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jan-88

Sep-89

May-91

Jan-93

Sep-94

May-96

Jan-98

Sep-99

May-01

Jan-03

Sep-04

May-06

Jan-08

Sep-09

May-11

TOT

Im port P rices USD (2006 =100)

Avg. TOT (1978-2010)

Export Prices U SD (2 006=100 )

PUSHING THE REAL EXCHANGE RATE STRONGER


1.2

1.6

2.0

2.4

2.8

3.2

3.6

Jan-94

Aug-95

Mar-97

Oct-98

May-00

Dec-0

1

Jul-03

Feb-05

Sep-06

Apr-08

Nov-09

Jun-11

U SD /B R L

WE EXPECT A SLOW RISE IN USD/BRL


1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Jan-01

Oct-01

Jul-02

Apr-03

Jan-04

Oct-04

Jul-0

5

Apr-06

Jan-07

Oct-07

Jul-0

8

Apr-09

Jan-10

Oct-10

Jul-1

1

Apr-12

Jan-13

Oct-13

Forecast

USD/BRL

Real appreciation with further monetization by the United States and Japan and perhaps Europe.

Expanding current account deficits.

Fiscal numbers weaker despite creative accounting and one-off revenue flows.

Improved but still poor social security and other indicators.

Low savings rates.

Low although increasing private investment rates.

Low public investment rates.

BRAZIL’S POLICYMAKERS FACE SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGES:

Colombia: Good Start for Santos

Why doesn’t Colombia grow more?

Colombia: President Santos’ Good StartPresident Juan Manuel Santos’ first year was very productive despite sending a barrage of reform initiatives to congress.

Congress is on its way to passing constitutional amendments on royalties and fiscal sustainability.

The Colombian economy is rebounding strongly with growth ending 2010 at 4.5% and forecast to accelerate to above 5% in 2011.

Inflation has rebounded along with this growth reaching 3.24% YoY in June 2011and should peak at 3.6% in 4Q 2011.

BANREP has tightened monetary policy but has now paused the intervention rate at 4.5%. We expect the rate to end 2011 at 5%.

The US Congress finally looks like it will ratify the free trade agreement with Colombia.

Prospects for Colombia's future look good.

Colombia: Economy Rebounds

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Capital (USA), September 2011

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

2000

II

2001 I

II

2002

IV

2004 I

2005

II

2006

III

2007

IV

2009

I

2010

II

2011 I

II

2012

IV

Forecast

4-qtrs/4-qrts %

Colombia: Economy Rebounds BUT DEMAND GROWTH IS FASTER THAN SUPPLY


-2 %

0 %

2 %

4 %

6 %

8 %

1 0 %

2002 I

2002 III

2003 I

2003 III

2004 I

2004 III

2005 I

2005 III

2006 I

2006 III

2007 I

2007 III

2008 I

2008 III

2009 I

2009 III

2010 I

2010 III

2011 I

4 -q trs /4 -q rts % D o m e s tic D e m a n d (A b s o rp tio n )

D o m e s tic V a lu e -A d d e d

INFLATION IS ALSO REBOUNDING BUT AT A MODERATE PACE


0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

Jan-03

Nov-03

Sep-0

4

Jul-0

5

May-06

Mar-0

7

Jan-08

Nov-08

Sep-0

9

Jul-1

0

May-11

Mar-1

2

Jan-13

Nov-13

Forecast

Headline CPI Inflation

Core 20 CPI Inflation

BANREP Intervention Rate

Colombia: Numbers and Forecasts

Source: INDEC, Bloomberg, Macquarie Capital (USA), September 2011

Real GDP Primary Bal. Nom. Bal Public Sec Debt Cur. Acct.Colombia USD GDP Real GDP growth (%/GDP) (%/GDP) (%/GDP) (%/GDP)

2002 93,167 205,591,281 2.46% 0.80% -3.10% 52.3% -1.40%2003 91,780 215,073,655 4.61% 1.80% -2.30% 54.3% -1.10%2004 114,138 225,104,157 4.66% 3.30% -0.50% 49.7% -0.80%2005 144,680 237,982,297 5.72% 2.90% -0.40% 46.4% -1.30%2006 162,615 254,505,598 0.00% 0.00% -0.40% 44.4% -1.80%2007 208,513 273,710,257 7.55% 3.40% -0.40% 40.9% -2.90%2008 244,825 280,369,033 2.43% 3.60% 0.50% 38.6% -2.80%2009 233,140 281,800,345 0.51% 1.00% -2.20% 41.3% -3.60%

2010E 268,945 293,917,760 4.30% -1.10% -3.80% 40.5% -3.30%2011F 314,091 308,907,566 5.10% 0.90% -3.70% 40.9% -3.10%2012F 328,355 323,735,129 4.80% 0.70% -2.50% 41.3% -2.69%

Colombia: Numbers and Forecasts con’t

Source: INDEC, Bloomberg, Macquarie Capital (USA), September 2011

Curr. Acct. FX Policy RateColombia (USD mm) Exports Imports Trade Bal. Reserves Inflation USDCOP Repo Rate

2002 -1,296 11,976 12,699 -723 10,537 7.0% 2867 5.25%2003 -979 13,129 13,890 -761 10,602 6.5% 2780 7.25%2004 -911 16,731 16,748 -17 13,216 5.5% 2355 6.50%2005 -1,886 21,191 21,204 -14 14,625 4.9% 2287 6.00%2006 -2,988 23,930 23,975 -45 15,104 4.5% 2240 7.50%2007 -6,018 29,381 30,088 -707 20,601 5.7% 2017 9.50%2008 -6,901 37,095 36,320 775 23,660 7.5% 2249 9.50%2009 -5,157 32,563 30,510 2,053 24,983 2.0% 2044 3.50%

2010E -9,032 39,546 37,508 2,038 28,451 3.2% 1907 4.00%2011F -11,400 46,600 42,009 4,591 32,000 3.5% 1776 5.00%2012F -11,400 51,260 44,949 6,311 33,000 3.4% 1841 4.75%

Mexico: Coming Out of the Malaise

Worries from the northern neighbor

Mexico: Beat Up But BetterThe Mexican economy was hit very hard by the US into recession falling 6.5% in 2009.

The recovery is slowly moving from one based upon manufacturing and exports to services and internal demand.

Mexican GDP is recovering and we expect growth at 3.8% for both 2011 and 2012.

The well capitalized banking system helped Mexico weather the massive negative shock of the US financial collapse.

The government allowed the fiscal deficit to widen but should have it back under 1% of GDP by 2012.

Banxico should keep monetary policy on hold until 4Q 2011 and will start despite the US Fed keeping interest rates near 0%.

Mexican industry is recovering with the US

Source: INEGI, Bloomberg, Macquarie Capital (USA), September 2011

-12%

-9%

-6%

-3%

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

Dec-95

Nov-96

Oct-97

Sep-98

Aug-99

Jul-00

Jun-01

May-02

Apr-03

Mar-04

Feb-05

Jan-06

Dec-06

Nov-07

Oct-08

Sep-09

Aug-10

Jul-11

Jun-12

Forec asM ex. Ind. Prod .

U S Ind. Prod.

M exican vs . US Indus tria l P roduction(12 m o, % change)

GDP Cycles Mexico x USA

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Jan-

90O

ct-9

0Ju

l-91

Apr

-92

Jan-

93O

ct-9

3Ju

l-94

Apr

-95

Jan-

96O

ct-9

6Ju

l-97

Apr

-98

Jan-

99O

ct-9

9Ju

l-00

Apr

-01

Jan-

02O

ct-0

2Ju

l-03

Apr

-04

Jan-

05O

ct-0

5Ju

l-06

Apr

-07

Jan-

08O

ct-0

8Ju

l-09

Apr

-10

Jan-

11O

ct-1

1Ju

l-12

Mexico US

And Mexican GDP has now a corresponding common cycle with US GDP

Source: INEGI, Raul Feliz, Bloomberg, Macquarie Capital (USA), September 2011

We expect reasonable and steady economic growth for Mexico

Source: INEGI, Macquarie Capital (USA), September 2011

-1 0%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

1 0%

2000 IV

2001 III

2002 II

2003 I

2003 IV

2004 III

2005 II

2006 I

2006 IV

2007 III

2008 II

2009 I

2009 IV

2010 III

2011 II

2012 I

2012 IV

(4 qt r/4 q t r % )

Fore ca st

The Real MXN has recovered but still above the levels of before the financial crisis.

Source: Banxico, Bloomberg, Macquarie Capital (USA), September 2011

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

Jan-92Feb-9

3Mar-9

4Apr-9

5May-96Jun-9

7Jul-9

8Aug-99Sep-0

0Oct-0

1Nov-02Dec

-03

Jan-05Feb-0

6Mar-0

7Apr-0

8May-09Jun-1

0Jul-1

1

Real MXN (June 2010)

The output gap is closing but more slowly in the last few months

Source: Raul Feliz, Banxico, Bloomberg, Macquarie Capital (USA), September 2011

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Jan-

01Aug

-01

Mar-0

2

Oct-02

May-0

3Dec

-03

Jul-0

4Fe

b-05

Sep-05

Apr-0

6Nov

-06Ju

n-07

Jan-

08Aug

-08

Mar-0

9

Oct-09

May-1

0Dec

-10

Jul-1

1Fe

b-12

Sep-12

Forecast

A Taylor rule has Banxico raising the fondeo rate now but expect only in 2012


Fondeo Rate and T aylor Rule (% per year)

3.6

4.1

4.6

5.1

5.6

6.1

6.6

7.1

7.6

8.1

8.6

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-0

8Oct-

08Ja

n-09Apr-0

9Ju

l-09

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

Jul-1

0Oct-

10Ja

n-11Apr-1

1Ju

l-11

Oct-11

Jan-12

Apr-12

Jul-1

2Oct-

12

Taylor Rule Prediciton Actual

Inflation remains well behaved and monetary policy on hold until 2012


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Jan-0

0

Mar-0

1

May-0

2

Jul-0

3

Sep-04

Nov-05

Jan-0

7

Mar-0

8

May-0

9

Jul-1

0

Sep-11

Nov-12

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

Target Range

USD/MXN (RHS)

CPI Inflation (y-o-y% , LHS)

Forecast

Core Inflation (y-o-y% , LHS)

Fondeo Rate

Mexico: Getting Better

Mexico grew more than 5% in 2010 and will slow down to a reasonable 3.8% in 2011.

Inflation is well behaved but a closing output gap and maize price shocks will lead Banxico to start raising the fondeo rate in 1Q 2012.

The recovery along with continued loose US monetary will put continuous downward pressure on USD/MXN.

Fiscal policy is slowly tightening from a mild expansion.

Political jockeying around the 2012 presidential election has already started, with the possibility of strange coalitions forming over the next 12 months.

Mexico Numbers and Forecasts

Source: Banxico, INEGI, Bloomberg, Macquarie Capital (USA), September 2011

Real GDP Primary Bal. Nom. Bal Public Sec Debt Cur. Acct.Mexico USD GDP Real GDP growth (%/GDP) (%/GDP) (%/GDP) (%/GDP)

2002 649,212 7,455,365 0.09% 1.60% -1.10% 22.1% -2.00%2003 700,344 7,555,803 1.35% 1.90% -0.60% 22.9% -1.00%2004 759,596 7,862,072 4.05% 2.20% -0.20% 21.3% -0.80%2005 849,744 8,114,085 3.21% 2.20% -0.10% 20.2% -0.70%2006 952,456 8,531,973 0.00% 2.50% 0.10% 18.5% -0.60%2007 1,025,806 8,810,136 3.26% 2.20% 0.00% 17.5% -1.10%2008 1,099,729 8,915,030 1.19% 1.80% -0.10% 21.4% -2.00%2009 877,195 8,369,087 -6.12% -0.10% -2.30% 30.1% -1.74%

2010E 904,793 8,820,038 5.39% 0.20% -2.10% 29.2% -0.65%2011F 999,709 9,126,736 3.48% 1.10% -1.90% 29.2% -0.52%2012F 1,159,185 9,467,310 3.73% 1.80% -1.50% 29.0% -0.89%

Mexico Numbers and Forecasts, con’t

Source: Banxico, INEGI, Bloomberg, Macquarie Capital (USA), September 2011

Curr. Acct. FX Policy RateMexico (USD mm) Exports Imports Trade Bal. Reserves Inflation USDMXN Fondeo Rate

2002 -14,155 161,046 168,679 -7,633 47,984 5.7% 10.37 8.25%2003 -7,259 164,766 170,546 -5,779 57,435 4.0% 11.23 6.12%2004 -5,236 187,999 196,810 -8,811 61,496 5.2% 11.15 8.75%2005 -4,871 214,233 221,820 -7,587 68,669 3.3% 10.62 8.25%2006 -4,776 249,925 256,058 -6,133 67,680 4.1% 10.81 7.00%2007 -8,660 271,875 281,949 -10,074 77,991 3.8% 10.85 7.50%2008 -16,174 291,343 308,603 -17,261 85,441 6.5% 13.43 8.25%2009 -16.349 229,783 234,385 -4,602 90,838 3.6% 12.86 4.50%

2010E -6.289 229,704 234,385 -4,681 113,597 5.4% 12.39 4.50%2011F -5.775 298,473 301,482 -3,009 125,500 4.1% 11.82 4.50%2012F -11.236 346,210 350,886 -4,676 121,000 3.5% 12.28 5.50%

Central America: Growing But Vulnerable

Inflation in Costa Rica, Elections in El Salvador, and Guatemala

Costa Rica: Vulnerable Stability

With Central American growth at 4%, Costa Rica is set to grow at 4.2% in 2011 and 4.1% in 2012.

Inflation remains relatively high at just above 6% annualized. We expect the current monetary tightening to continue through 2012, which should continue to exert downward pressure on the USD/CDC, at least in real terms.

The government’s fiscal stance continues loose and the government faces significant opposition implementing a fiscal reform any time soon.

The current account deficit is set to expand with the expansion of the economy and the strengthening of the currency. Tourism has recovered and traditional exports (e.g. coffee) are currently growing at 11%, mostly because of the continued rise in prices with coffee the most important.

The twin deficits represent the main sources of vulnerability to the Costa Rican economy.

Costa Rica Numbers and Forecasts

Source: Global Source, Banco Central de Costa Rica, Bloomberg, Macquarie Capital (USA), September 2011

Real GDP Primary Bal. Nom. Bal Public Sec Debt Cur. Acct.Costa Rica USD GDP Real GDP growth (%/GDP) (%/GDP) (%/GDP) (%/GDP)

2002 16,825 1,480,435 2.90% 0.30% -4.00% 59.0% -5.1%2003 17,499 1,575,249 6.40% 1.20% -3.10% 59.8% -5.0%2004 18,566 1,642,346 4.26% 1.60% -2.50% 59.2% -4.3%2005 19,919 1,739,021 5.89% 2.50% -1.60% 55.1% -4.9%2006 22,464 1,891,701 0.00% 3.10% -0.70% 50.7% -4.6%2007 26,218 2,042,033 7.95% 3.70% 0.60% 45.3% -6.3%2008 29,684 2,099,560 2.82% 2.40% 0.20% 39.4% -9.3%2009 29,060 2,077,107 -1.07% -0.80% -3.40% 42.4% -1.8%

2010E 35,131 2,149,806 3.50% -3.10% -5.20% 43.7% -3.7%2011F 38,278 2,240,097 4.20% 3.10% -5.40% 45.4% -5.4%2012F 42,033 2,331,941 4.10% 2.80% -5.60% 46.8% -5.6%

Costa Rica Numbers and Forecasts, con’t

Source: Global Source, Banco Central de Costa Rica, Bloomberg, Macquarie Capital (USA), September 2011

Curr. Acct. FX Policy RateCosta Rica (USD mm) Exports Imports Trade Bal. Reserves Inflation USDCRC Base Rate

2002 -857 5,264 7,188 -1,924 1,500 9.7% 378.60 17.50%2003 -880 6,102 7,663 -1,561 1,839 9.9% 418.67 13.75%2004 -792 6,302 8,268 -1,967 1,922 13.1% 458.60 14.25%2005 -981 7,027 9,824 -2,797 2,313 14.1% 496.65 15.25%2006 -1,023 8,200 11,548 -3,348 3,115 9.4% 517.25 8.97%2007 -1,646 9,337 12,952 -3,615 4,114 10.8% 498.12 5.52%2008 -2,752 9,504 15,372 -5,868 3,799 13.9% 555.12 10.00%2009 -537 8,788 11,395 -2,606 4,066 4.0% 565.24 9.00%

2010E -1,299 9,385 13,616 -4,231 4,627 5.8% 512.00 8.00%2011F -2,072 10,058 15,749 -5,691 4,827 6.2% 520.00 8.50%2012F -2,350 11,288 17,905 -6,617 4,927 6.5% 525.00 10.50%

El Salvador: Overdone Negativity

Most Wall Street analysts continue with a negative outlook for El Salvador. We are not quite so negative. Some of this negativity comes from El Salvador's slow growth rate.

With Central American growth at 4%, El Salvador will once again underperform the region with growth at 1.7%.

Inflation is running above 6% annualized and should end the year close to 7% as electricity prices are poised to increase.

The government is currently pushing to bring down the fiscal deficit under the auspices of an IMF program. So far the government has outperformed its IMF targets and has not yet drawn on the SBA credit line and intends to keep it as precautionary.

Exports have rebounded sharply, running at a rate of 25% (May). The current account deficit is expanding, mainly financed by remittances.

Guatemala: Elections and good export performancePresidential elections on 11 September 2011 and retired general Otto Pérez Molina looks to win.

With Central American growth at 4%, Guatemala is currently growing at just above 3% annualized and should end 2011 just below that.

Exports are currently the main source of growth, increasing 27% YoY in May.

The current account deficit is expanding, mainly financed by remittances.

The government’s fiscal stance is improving based mainly on 19% growth in revenues. The fiscal deficit should end 2011 at 3% of GDP. The government completed an agreement with the IMF and might renew it after the election.

Inflation is currently running at 6.4%, above the 4%-6% target range of the Banco Central de Guatemala (Banguat).

Indonesia and Vietnam:

Strong Growth and Inflation

Vietnam: in a tight spot between inflation and growth

Inflation remains strongly elevated, at over 23% YoY, with much of this supply-driven. This trend should continue for the remainder of 2011 with key hard and soft commodity prices remaining elevated.

The slowdown in global trade (particularly manufacturing) will also adversely impact the Vietnamese economy. We expect ~6% growth in 2011, compared to 6.8% in 2010.

The combination of higher interest rates in 1H11 and higher inflation will likely weigh on private consumption and investment.

But policymakers remain focused on growth, with the State Bank of Vietnam announcing a surprise 100bp repo rate cut in July following aggressive rate hikes in 1H11.

Indonesia: robust growth, and inflation concerns are manageable for now

Robust domestic consumption and ongoing fixed investment should remain the key drivers of above-trend (~6.5%) growth in 2011.

Headline inflation has dipped below 5% due to food and fuel subsidies, and tolerance of a significant appreciation in the rupiah. However, core inflation remains elevated.

Bank Indonesia has lagged global peers in tightening monetary policy, but will likely leave rates on hold until year-end.

In a nod to ongoing investor support, Indonesian asset markets continue to perform strongly. While the key stock index fell ~8% in August following global jitters, it is still averaging 22% higher than 2010.

Structural economic reform remains a long-term challenge

Inflation

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11

HeadlineCore

YoY%

Source: Datastream, Macquarie Research, September 2011

The numbers

2009 2010 2011F 2012F

GDP 4.6 6.1 6.4 6.4

Household consumption 4.9 4.6 5.1 5.3

Gross fixed investment 3.3 8.5 9.3 10.4

Industrial production 2.2 4.5 4.9 4.8

CPI 4.8 5.1 5.7 5.9

Policy rate (yr end) 6.50 6.50 6.75 7.25

USD/IDR (yr avg) 10357 9101 8600 8400

Indonesia Vietnam2009 2010 2011F 2012F

GDP 5.3 6.8 6.1 6.5

Household consumption 3.7 7.0 2.8 5.4

Gross fixed investment 8.7 8.5 5.1 7.2

Industrial production 7.6 14.0 14.0 15.5

CPI 7.0 8.9 17.4 10.1

USD/VND (yr end) 17941 19498 21043 21586

Source: Datastream, Macquarie Capital (USA), September 2011

Price increase in primary commodities, especially coffee, continues to power terms of trade improvement, higher economic growth, and strong capital inflows.

Stronger currencies and expanding current account deficits have accompanied this growth.

Capital flows to these countries.

Policy makers are struggling to tighten fiscal and monetary policies to soften the appreciation and the inflation impact of these favorable winds. Improved but still poor social security and other indicators.

COFFEE EXPORTERS PERFORMING SIMILARLY

Recommendation definitions

Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand

Outperform – return > 3% in excess of benchmark return Neutral – return within 3% of benchmark return Underperform – return > 3% below benchmark return

Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend yield Macquarie – Asia/Europe

Outperform – expected return >+10%Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10%Underperform – expected <-10%

Macquarie First South - South Africa

Outperform – return > 10% in excess of benchmark returnNeutral – return within 10% of benchmark returnUnderperform – return > 10% below benchmark return

Macquarie - Canada


Macquarie - USA


Volatility index definition*

This is calculated from the volatility of historic price movements.

Very high–highest risk – Stock should be expected to move up or down 60-100% in a year – investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative.

High – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 40-60% in a year – investors should be aware this stock could be speculative.

Medium – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 30-40% in a year.

Low–medium – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 25-30% in a year.

Low – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15-25% in a year.

•Applicable to Australian/NZ stocks only

Recommendation – 12 months

Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations

Financial definitions

All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made:

Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expenseExcluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests

EPS = adjusted net profit /efpowa*ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assetsROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assetsROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders fundsGross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation*equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares

All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards).

Important disclosures:

Recommendation proportions – For quarter ending 30 June 2011

AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR

Outperform 50.37% 64.60% 64.62% 45.63% 67.74% 48.02% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 12.44% of stocks covered are investment banking clients)

Neutral 36.86% 21.22% 29.23% 51.30% 28.50% 38.42% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 12.95% of stocks covered are investment banking clients)Underperform 12.77% 14.18% 6.15% 3.07% 3.76% 13.56% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 0.00% of stocks covered are investment banking clients)

Company Specific Disclosures:Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.

Analyst Certification: The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst principally responsible for the preparation of this research receives compensation based on overall revenues of Macquarie Group Ltd ABN 94 122 169 279 (AFSL No. 318062) (MGL) and its related entities (the Macquarie Group) and has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations.

General Disclaimers: Macquarie Securities (Australia) Ltd; Macquarie Capital (Europe) Ltd; Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd; Macquarie Capital Markets North America Ltd; Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc; Macquarie Capital Securities Ltd and its Taiwan branch; Macquarie Capital Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd; Macquarie Securities (NZ) Ltd; and Macquarie First South Securities (Pty) Limited; Macquarie Capital Securities (India) Pvt Ltd; Macquarie Capital Securities (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd; Macquarie Securities Korea Limited and Macquarie Securities (Thailand) Ltd are not authorized deposit-taking institutions for the purposes of the Banking Act 1959 (Commonwealth of Australia), and their obligations do not represent deposits or other liabilities of Macquarie Bank Limited ABN 46 008 583 542 (MBL) or MGL. MBL does not guarantee or otherwise provide assurance in respect of the obligations of any of the above mentioned entities. MGL provides a guarantee to the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of the obligations and liabilities of Macquarie Capital Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd for up to SGD 35 million. This research has been prepared for the general use of the wholesale clients of the Macquarie Group and must not be copied, either in whole or in part, or distributed to any other person. If you are not the intended recipient you must not use or disclose the information in this research in any way. If you received it in error, please tell us immediately by return e-mail and delete the document. We do not guarantee the integrity of any e-mails or attached files and are not responsible for any changes made to them by any other person. MGL has established and implemented a conflicts policy at group level (which may be revised and updated from time to time) (the "Conflicts Policy") pursuant to regulatory requirements (including the FSA Rules) which sets out how we must seek to identify and manage all material conflicts of interest. Nothing in this research shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or product, or to engage in or refrain from engaging in any transaction. In preparing this research, we did not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before making an investment decision on the basis of this research, you need to consider, with or without the assistance of an adviser, whether the advice is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. There are risks involved in securities trading. The price of securities can and does fluctuate, and an individual security may even become valueless. International investors are reminded of the additional risks inherent in international investments, such as currency fluctuations and international stock market or economic conditions, which may adversely affect the value of the investment. This research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representation or warranty that it is accurate, complete or up to date. We accept no obligation to correct or update the information or opinions in it. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. No member of the Macquarie Group accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss arising from any use of this research and/or further communication in relation to this research. Clients should contact analysts at, and execute transactions through, a Macquarie Group entity in their home jurisdiction unless governing law permits otherwise.

Country-Specific Disclaimers: Australia: In Australia, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Securities (Australia) Ltd (AFSL No. 238947), a participating organisation of the Australian Securities Exchange. New Zealand: In New Zealand, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Securities (NZ) Ltd, a NZX Firm. Canada: In Canada, research is prepared, approved and distributed by Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd, a participating organisation of the Toronto Stock Exchange, TSX Venture Exchange & Montréal Exchange. Macquarie Capital Markets North America Ltd., which is a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA, accepts responsibility for the contents of reports issued by Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd in the United States and sent to US persons. Any person wishing to effect transactions in the securities described in the reports issued by Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd should do so with Macquarie Capital Markets North America Ltd. The Research Distribution Policy of Macquarie

Capital Markets Canada Ltd is to allow all clients that are entitled to have equal access to our research. United Kingdom: In the United Kingdom, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Capital (Europe) Ltd, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (No. 193905). Germany: In Germany, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Capital (Europe) Ltd, Niederlassung Deutschland, which is authorised and regulated in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority (No. 193905). France: In France, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Capital (Europe) Ltd, which is authorised and regulated in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority (No. 193905). Hong Kong & Mainland China: In Hong Kong, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Capital Securities Ltd, which is licensed and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission. In Mainland China, Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited Shanghai Representative Office only engages in non-business operational activities excluding issuing and distributing research. Only non-A share research is distributed into Mainland China by Macquarie Capital Securities Ltd. Japan: In Japan, research is Issued and distributed by Macquarie Capital Securities (Japan) Limited, a member of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, Inc., Osaka Securities Exchange Co. Ltd. (Financial Instruments Firm, Kanto Financial Bureau (kin-sho) No. 231, a member of Japan Securities Dealers Association and Financial Futures Association of Japan and Japan Securities Investment Advisers Association). India: In India, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Capital Securities (India) Pty Ltd., 92, Level 9, 2 North Avenue, Maker Maxity, Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (East), Mumbai – 400 051, India, which is a SEBI registered Stock Broker having membership with National Stock Exchange of India Limited (INB231246738) and Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (INB011246734). Malaysia: In Malaysia, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Capital Securities (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. (Company registration number: 463469-W) which is a Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Berhad and a holder of Capital Markets Services License issued by the Securities Commission. Taiwan: Information on securities/instruments that are traded in Taiwan is distributed by Macquarie Capital Securities Ltd, Taiwan Branch, which is licensed and regulated by the Financial Supervisory Commission. No portion of the report may be reproduced or quoted by the press or any other person without authorisation from Macquarie. Nothing in this research shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or product. Thailand: In Thailand, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Securities (Thailand) Ltd, a licensed securities company that is authorized by the Ministry of Finance, regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission of Thailand and is an exchange member no. 28 of the Stock Exchange of Thailand. The Thai Institute of Directors Association has disclosed the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies made pursuant to the policy of the Securities and Exchange Commission of Thailand. Macquarie Securities (Thailand) Ltd does not endorse the result of the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies but this Report can be accessed at: http://www.thai-iod.com/en/publications.asp?type=4. South Korea: In South Korea, unless otherwise stated, research is prepared, issued and distributed by Macquarie Securities Korea Limited , which is regulated by the Financial Supervisory Services. Information on analysts in MSKL is disclosed at http://dis.kofia.or.kr/fs/dis2/fundMgr/DISFundMgrAnalystPop.jsp?companyCd2=A03053&pageDiv=02. South Africa: In South Africa, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie First South Securities (Pty) Limited, a member of the JSE Limited. Singapore: In Singapore, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Capital Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd (Company Registration Number: 198702912C), a Capital Markets Services license holder under the Securities and Futures Act to deal in securities and provide custodial services in Singapore. Pursuant to the Financial Advisers (Amendment) Regulations 2005, Macquarie Capital Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd is exempt from complying with sections 25, 27 and 36 of the Financial Advisers Act. All Singapore-based recipients of research produced by Macquarie Capital (Europe) Limited, Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd, Macquarie First South Securities (Pty) Limited and Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc. represent and warrant that they are institutional investors as defined in the Securities and Futures Act. United States: In the United States, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc., which is a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA. Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc, accepts responsibility for the content of each research report prepared by one of its non-US affiliates when the research report is distributed in the United States by Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc. Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc.’s affiliate’s analysts are not registered as research analysts with FINRA, may not be associated persons of Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc., and therefore may not be subject to FINRA rule restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account. Any persons receiving this report directly from Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc. and wishing to effect a transaction in any security described herein should do so with Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc. Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures, or contact your registered representative at 1-888-MAC-STOCK, or write to the Supervisory Analysts, Research Department, Macquarie Securities, 125 W.55th Street, New York, NY 10019. © Macquarie Group

Contact Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc.

Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc.125 W. 55th Street, Level 23New York, NY 10019

(212) 231 1000

Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc.2 Embarcadero Center, Suite 200San Francisco, CA 94111

(415) 762 5000

Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc. 225 Franklin Street, Suite 1740Boston, MA 02110

(617) 598 2500

Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc.1 North Wacker Drive, 9th FloorChicago, IL 60606

(312) 660 9215

Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc1225 17th Street, Suite 1600Denver, CO, 80202

(303) 952 2800

24 Hour Toll-Free1-888 MAC STOCK1-888 622 7862

SALESUSKaren Acierno (303) 952 2730Karen Blando (212) 231 2515Larry Busnardo (303) 952 2750Michael Cagney (312) 660 9144Will Cape (312) 660 9051David Chambers (212) 231 2505Brian Cohen (212) 231 8002Wes Dalton (415) 762 5007Michael D’Arcangelo (212) 231 2573Peter Doerr (312) 660 9052John Donaldson (212) 231 8026Eddie Friedmann (212) 231 8011Roni Gudell (617) 598 2504Greg Jannetta (617) 598 2507Jay Kreske (312) 660 9041Heidi Muccifori (212) 231 2466Bruce Murdock (212) 231 8025Todd Pigott (212) 231 8007Susan Reid (416) 848 3558Jack Rose (415) 762 5002Richard Sears (212) 231 2489Blair Smith (212) 231 8004Mark Swank (212) 231 2415Ben Taylor (415) 762 5025Ingrid Willinge (212) 231 8017

Email [email protected] [email protected]

Australia/NZEric Roles (212) 231 2559Michael Burguieres (212) 231 2506Rowland Hirst (212) 231 2553Daniel Pittorino (212) 231 2552Lucy Taylor (212) 231 2571

Asia-ExRachel An (212) 231 2422Darrin Blumenthal (212) 231 2562Mark Lawrence (212) 231 2516Mehvish Mirza (212) 231 2519Sheila Schroeder (415) 762 5003Jean Zhang (212) 231 6397

EuropeMartin Pommier (212) 231 8054Will Allen (617) 598 2518David Bain (415) 762 5008Doug Stone (212) 231 2606

India SpecialistAnumeha Pande (212) 231 2483

South Africa SpecialistRussell Fryer (212) 231 2504

JapanPaul Colaco (212) 231 2496Todd Narter (415) 762 5005Michael Nuss (212) 231 2517Peter Slater (617) 598 2502

Corporate AccessLauren Osterweil (212) 231 2557

SALES TRADINGUSAustin Graham (212) 231 2494Greg Calvino (212) 231 0902Pat Caufield (212) 231 2581Matt Coleman (212) 231 2534Bill Durand (212) 231 2413Tom Durand (212) 231 8024Tom Fletcher (617) 598 2515Chris Gilmore (617) 598 2505Jim Guber (212) 231 8087Brad Hoenig (212) 231 8089Allen Jordan (212) 231 0947Matt Lahey (212) 231 2487Marty Livingston (212) 231 2523Matt McNamara (212) 231 2547Michael Nevitt (212) 231 2408Sam Panageas (212) 231 2459Jon Patria (212) 231 2488Ross Peet (415) 762 5069Ken Plageman (617) 598 2516Robert Redfield (212) 231 8071Chris Richards (212) 231 0902William Schuh (212) 231 2594Peter Schwartz (212) 231 6381John Strack (212) 231 8067Jess Wilson (617) 598 2509Lance Wood (415) 762 5009

InternationalChris Reale (212) 231 2555Guy Devereux (212) 231 0900Ed Eng (212) 231 0900James Henry (212) 231 0900Kai Keller (212) 231 2555Adam Ritter (212) 231 6613Marc Rosa (212) 231 2555

apresentação john welch

Documents