apresentação citigroup 14a conferência anual da américa latina (inglês)
TRANSCRIPT
José Marcos Treiger IRO
Luiz Henrique Valverde IR Manager
March, 2006
Meeting with Investors 14 th. Annual Latin America Conference
New York City
Forward‐looking Statements Forward‐looking Statements
This presentation contains forward‐looking statements. Such statements are not statements of historical facts, and reflect the beliefs and expectations of Braskem’s management. The words “anticipates”, “wishes”, “expects”, “estimates”, “intends”, “forecasts”, “plans”, “predicts”, “projects”, “targets” and similar words are intended to identify these statements. Although Braskem believes that expectations and assumptions reflected in the forward‐looking statements are reasonable based on information currently available to Braskem’s management, Braskem cannot guarantee future results or events.
Forward‐looking statements included in this presentation speak only as of the date on which they are made (December 31, 2005), and the Company does not undertake any obligation to update them in light of new information or future developments.
Braskem shall not be responsible for any transaction or investment decisions that are taken based on information included in this presentation.
Agenda
4 Growth & Value Creation
4 Company Overview
4 4Q05 & FYE 2005 Results
29.5% 29.5% 35.0% 33.9% 100.0% 63.7%
POLIALDEN
FREE FLOAT PETROS PREVI PETROQUISA 2.6% 8.4% 1.2%
ODEBRECHT 46.8% 31.7%
NORQUISA 9.1% 2.5% 10.0% 48.6% 25.4% 2.4% 11.0%
Current Shareholder Structure ( * ) Market Capitalization of US$ 3 billion and Free float of 47%
% Voting Capital % Total Capital
Controlling Shareholder
Investments in Affiliated Companies
Source: Braskem
* As of December 31, 2005
First integrated petrochemical company in Brazil
New approach to the Brazilian petrochemical sector
Oil exploration 1 st Generation 2 nd Generation 3 rd Generation
INTEGRATION
New dynamics in the value chain
Naphtha and Condensate Naphtha and Condensate Competitiveness Competitiveness
1. Braskem’s affiliates: a) Braskem jointly controls Copesul with the Ipiranga Group b) Braskem owns 33.9% of Politeno´s total capital
2. Jointly owned by Suzano, Unipar, Petroquisa e BNDES
Source: CMAI and Braskem – 2005
5.8 million tons in total annual capacity of petrochemical and chemical products
Thousand tons / year
Ethylene
PVC
PE
PP
700
700
1,400
Dow
1,135
Copesul 1
520
540
1,060
Rio Polímeros 2
520
150
670
Ipiranga
500
130 630
Unipar
85
476
561
Solvay
350
Politeno 1
1,280
870
580
525
3,255
Braskem
625
Suzano
Braskem: Player with the largest scale in the region
Braskem: A diversified portfolio of products Braskem: A diversified portfolio of products
Revenues Breakdown Revenues Breakdown ‐ ‐ 2005 2005 %
Ethylene
PP
PET
PVC
Propylene
PE
BTX (Benzene Toluene, Xylenes)
Others (includes EDC, Isoprene, gasoline, utilities among others)
Resins
46%
20%
14%
10%
2% 11%
9%
12%
4%
2%
3%
13%
Caustic Soda
Caprolactam
Butadiene
Source: Braskem and FIERGS/CEPAL (jan/2006) for economic forecasts
4 Perspectives for 2006:
4 Lingering of global economic growth, led by China and India
4 In Brazil:
4 Gradual reduction in interest rates 4 Increase in public investments in
infrastructure 4 Probable domestic demand boost
coupled with higher expected GDP growth
4 Increase in disposable income
Braskem: present across several industries and in the daily lives of millions of people Braskem: present across several industries and in the daily lives of millions of people
4 Market segmentation for Braskem’s resins in 2005
* Includes personal hygiene, infrastructure, electronics, auto parts and others
% of Revenues % of Revenues
*
FOOD AND BEVERAGES 33%
CONSUMER GOODS (NON‐DURABLE)
15%
CIVIL CONSTRUCTION 15%
OTHERS 16%
RETAIL 9%
AGRICULTURE 7%
COSMETICS AND PHARMACEUTICALS
5%
2002 2003 2004 2005
Gross Revenue over R$ 15 billion Significant and consistent revenue growth Gross Revenue over R$ 15 billion Significant and consistent revenue growth
R$ million Gross Revenue Gross Revenue
11,284
8,858
14,342 15,193
20% CAGR
US$ million Gross Revenue Gross Revenue
R$ million Net Revenue Net Revenue
18% CAGR
US$ million Net Revenue Net Revenue
26% CAGR
9,191
6,991
11,044 11,607
3,688 3,013
4,900
28% CAGR
6,252
3,008 2,375
3,771
4,775
2002 2003 2004 2005
2002 2003 2004 2005 2002 2003 2004 2005
Source: Braskem
* Excludes nonrecurring effects in the amount of R$ 779 million
EBITDA Evolution Consistent growth in US$ since 2002 EBITDA Evolution Consistent growth in US$ since 2002
R$ million EBITDA EBITDA
16% CAGR
1,776
1,335
2,549
2,090
2002 * 2003 2004 2005
US$ million EBITDA EBITDA
457
871 851
581
23% CAGR
2002 2003 2004 2005
Source: Braskem
Net Income Net Income
Consistent improvement in Profitability Net income reaches US$ 270 million in 2005 Consistent improvement in Profitability Net income reaches US$ 270 million in 2005
R$ million Net Income Net Income US$ million
215
(794)
691 677
2003 2004 2005 2002
59
(301)
245 268
2003 2004 2005 2002
Source: Braskem
2002 2003 2004 2005
Net Net Debt Debt / EBITDA / EBITDA
5.1
3.5
1.5 1.4
1,929 2,166
1,457 1,211
2002 2003 2004 2005
2002 2003 2004 2005
20% 22% 43%
48%
Debt Debt / Equity / Equity
Sound Capital Structure and decreasing financial leverage Sound Capital Structure and decreasing financial leverage
80% 78% 57% 52%
Net Net Debt Debt Evolution Evolution US$ million
Source: Braskem
Agenda
4 Growth & Value Creation
4 Company´s Overview
4 4Q05 & FYE 2005 Results
2005 2004
ETHYLENE ETHYLENE
2005 2004
PE PE
2005 2004
PP PP
2005 2004
PVC PVC
High Capacity Utilization Rates Reflecting sound operating performance High Capacity Utilization Rates Reflecting sound operating performance
4 Capacity utilization rate
Comparison to 2004
Source: Braskem
94% 93% 94% 91% 91% 87% 90% 95%
+ 7.5%
+ 8.4% Sales of Thermoplastic Resins (ton) Sales of Thermoplastic Resins (ton)
Production of Thermoplastic Resins (ton) Production of Thermoplastic Resins (ton)
Total Sales 9% increase in resins sales comparing 4Q05 vs. 4Q04 Total Sales 9% increase in resins sales comparing 4Q05 vs. 4Q04
4 4Q05 Performance impacted by the period’s seasonality
4 Low inventory level at customers by the end of 2005
Source: Braskem
(1) Consolidates sales in the domestic and export markets, including the Southern Cone.
4Q05 3Q05 4Q04 Var.% Var.%
(A) (B) (C) (A) / (B) (A) / (C)
Ethylene k ton 290 291 295 0% ‐2%
THERMOPLASTIC RESINS k ton 401 486 369 ‐17% 9%
PP k ton 121 149 107 ‐19% 14%
PE k ton 175 210 166 ‐17% 5%
PVC k ton 105 127 96 ‐18% 9%
Sales ‐ main products (1)
000 Ton
Total Sales Commercial flexibility in a low growth domestic market
4 An 8% increase in sales of thermoplastic resins driven by the 51% increase in export volume
000 Ton
2005 2004 Var.%
(A) (B) (A) / (B)
ETHYLENE k ton 1,170 1,099 6%
THERMOPLASTIC RESINS k ton 1,728 1,594 8%
PP k ton 518 461 12%
PE k ton 768 705 9%
PVC k ton 442 428 3%
Sales ‐ Main Products (1)
Source: Braskem
(1) Consolidates sales in the domestic and export markets, including the Southern Cone.
415
617 710
959
Destination of Exports Destination of Exports – – 2005 2005
North America 47%
Europe 21%
South America 20%
ROW 12%
Exports reach ~ US$ 1 billion Strategic and commercial flexibility reflected in a record performance in 2005 Exports reach ~ US$ 1 billion Strategic and commercial flexibility reflected in a record performance in 2005
4 Exports increase more than US$ 500 million in only 3 years
2002 2003 2004 2005
Exports Exports US$ million
Source: Braskem
% of net revenue % of net revenue
23% 25% 19% 20%
2002 2003 2004 2005
Naphtha ARA price increases 26% in 2005 Naphtha ARA price increases 26% in 2005
Naphtha impact on Naphtha impact on CoGS CoGS R$ million
2004 2005 Price Volume Foreign Exchange
4,707
5,281
1,176 187
(789)
Quarterly price evolution for oil and Quarterly price evolution for oil and naphtha (Brent and ARA) naphtha (Brent and ARA)
2003 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Brent oil (US$/barrel)
Naphtha ARA ‐ US$/ton
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2004 2005
Source: Braskem
4 Increase in naphtha prices negatively impacts CoGS by over R$ 1 billion
378 476
+26%
Average Price Average Price – – Naphtha ARA (US$/ton) Naphtha ARA (US$/ton)
2004 2005 274
2003
+38%
Naphtha ARA annual average ‐ US$/ton
274
378
476
390
440
490
540
590
640
Evolution of Naphtha ARA prices Evolution of Naphtha ARA prices
Source: Bloomberg
4 High volatility with a recent downward trend
2005 2006
30‐day moving average
20‐day moving average
Daily Naphtha Prices ARA (US$/ton)
EBITDA Analysis – 4Q05 vs. 4Q04 Foreign exchange and naphtha offset the effect of better prices and volumes EBITDA Analysis – 4Q05 vs. 4Q04 Foreign exchange and naphtha offset the effect of better prices and volumes
Main Variations Main Variations R$ million
58
148
(378)
(92)
661
83
480
4Q04 4Q05 Price Volume Raw Materials
Foreign Exchange
Source: Braskem
Others
EBITDA Analysis ‐ 2005 vs. 2004 Foreign exchange and naphtha offset the effect of better prices and volumes EBITDA Analysis ‐ 2005 vs. 2004 Foreign exchange and naphtha offset the effect of better prices and volumes
Main Variations Main Variations
2004 2005 Price Volume Raw Materials
Foreign Exchange
Others
R$ million
129
(1,826)
1,977
(652) (87)
2,549
2,090
Foreign Foreign exchange exchange impact on impact on costs costs
Foreign exchange Foreign exchange impact on impact on
revenue revenue
1,234
(1,886)
Source: Braskem
EBITDA Analysis in US$ High levels of raw materials and thermoplastic resins prices EBITDA Analysis in US$ High levels of raw materials and thermoplastic resins prices
Source: Braskem
Main Variations Main Variations
2004 2005 Price Volume Raw Materials
Others
US$ million
149
(720)
662
(110)
870
851
Indebtedness Profile Average debt maturity of 11 years with only 12% due in the short term Indebtedness Profile Average debt maturity of 11 years with only 12% due in the short term
4 Indebtedness Profile
Gross Debt: Gross Debt: 5,004 5,004
Cash and Cash equivalents: Cash and Cash equivalents: 2,170 2,170
Net Debt: Net Debt: 2,834 2,834
R$ million
Amortization Agenda
12%
2006
26%
17%
9%
2007 2009 2011 to 2014
13%
Dec/05 Cash and cash equivalents
867 867 620 620 376 376 446 446 670 670
2008
890 (in R$) 890 (in R$)
1,280 (in US$) 1,280 (in US$)
Average maturity: 11
in years Subordinated debentures with payment of interest and principal scheduled for July 2007, fully subscribed by the controlling shareholder.
2016 to ...
7%
355 355
(On 12/31/2005)
931
2,170
359 359
2015
7%
Trade Finance
44%
TJLP 26%
CDI 18%
Fixed 1%
US$ 55%
43%
12%
2010
8%
380 380
Source: Braskem
Source: Braskem
P&L Summary 2005 Results reflect the strength of Braskem’s business model P&L Summary 2005 Results reflect the strength of Braskem’s business model
4Q05 4Q04 Var.% 2005 2004 Var.%
(A) (B) (A) / (B) (C) (D) (C) / (D)
Net Revenue R$ MM 2,848 2,798 2% 11,607 11,044 5%
EBITDA R$ MM 480 661 ‐27% 2,090 2,549 ‐18%
EBITDA Margin % 16.9% 23.6% ‐ 6.8 pp 18.0% 23.1% ‐ 5.1 pp
Net Financial Results R$ MM (440) (60) 633% (662) (1,181) ‐44%
Equity Income R$ MM (25) 15 ‐ 60 76 ‐21%
Net Income R$ MM (5) 487 ‐ 677 691 ‐2%
Income Statement
Free Cash Flow over R$ 1.2 billion R$ 717 million invested in 2005 Free Cash Flow over R$ 1.2 billion R$ 717 million invested in 2005
Free Cash Flow* Free Cash Flow*
1,179
1,258
R$ million
7%
*after taxes and capex
717
374
2005 2004
Investments Investments R$ million
2004 2005
92%
Distribution of R$ 326 million to shareholders 60% increase when compared to 2004 Distribution of R$ 326 million to shareholders 60% increase when compared to 2004
326
204
2005 2004
Dividends and Interest on Equity Dividends and Interest on Equity R$ million
60%
48
30
2005 2004
Dividend Pay Dividend Pay‐ ‐out out %
60%
Agenda
4 Growth & Value Creation
4 Company´s Overview
4 4Q05 & FYE 2005 Results
92.5% 91.5% 92.6%
Global utilization rates (%) Global utilization rates (%)
The petrochemical cycle: global balance remains favorable Capacity utilization rates should stay above 90% through 2008 The petrochemical cycle: global balance remains favorable Capacity utilization rates should stay above 90% through 2008
4 Ethylene capacity additions
Source: CMAI, March06
2006 2007 2008
Iran Iran 000 ton
2006 2007 2008
China China 000 ton
1,537
920
2006 2007 2008
Middle East Middle East (ex‐Iran) 000 ton
0
ü Demand growth during the 06‐08 period should exceed that of supply, keeping utilization rates above 90%
ü There are still uncertainties concerning the capacity additions schedule in Iran
1,700
295
2006 2007 2008
Asia Asia (ex‐China) 000 ton
505
2,307
2006 2007 2008
2,510
1,270
646
1,925
760
106%
100%
126%
141%
Jan05 Feb05 Mar05 Apr05 May05 Jun05 Jul05 Aug05 Sep05 Oct05 Nov05 Dec05
PEAD Asia (CMAI) Normalized
PEAD Braskem (domestic) Normalized
Polyethylene Prices International and Braskem’s (normalized)
Polyethylene Prices International and Braskem’s (normalized)
Short‐term price evolution Spreads over international prices above 30% Short‐term price evolution Spreads over international prices above 30%
Source: CMAI / Braskem
Spreads over Asian prices (December 2005)
PP PP
PE PE + 34%
+ 33%
PVC PVC + 43%
107%
100%
143% 142%
Jan05 Feb05 Mar05 Apr05 May05 Jun05 Jul05 Aug05 Sep05 Oct05 Nov05 Dec05
PP Asia (CMAI) Normalized
PP Braskem (domestic) Normalized
93% 100%
135%
153%
Jan05 Feb05 Mar05 Apr05 May05 Jun05 Jul05 Aug05 Sep05 Oct05 Nov05 Dec05
PVC Asia (CMAI) Normalized
PVC Braskem (domestic) Normalized
Polypropylene Prices International and Braskem’s (normalized)
Polypropylene Prices International and Braskem’s (normalized)
PVC Prices International and Braskem’s (normalized)
PVC Prices International and Braskem’s (normalized)
Brazilian domestic market Brazilian domestic market – – Sales Volume Sales Volume
Ytd Feb 05 Ytd Feb 06
Performance in the Domestic Market Performance in the Domestic Market Sales increase of 7% for thermoplastic resins Sales increase of 7% for thermoplastic resins
PP PP PE PE PVC PVC Resins Resins
+ 17%
‐ 7%
+ 17%
+ 7%
Increase in Capital expenditures: confidence in the future R$ 900 million to be invested in 2006 Increase in Capital expenditures: confidence in the future R$ 900 million to be invested in 2006
Investments Investments
2003 2004 2005 2006
176
374
717
900
R$ million
26%
Capacity Increases
Equipment
Safety, Health & Environmental Protection
Technology
Productivity
Quality and others
244
202
151
134
118
51
Growth with Value Creation Investments with high rates of return Growth with Value Creation Investments with high rates of return
4 Capacity Expansions Venezuela
4Polyethylene (1Q06) 4 Investment: R$ 9.9 Million; 4 Additional Capacity: + 30 k ton / year
(+3.5%); 4 Rate of Return: 58%; 4 Location: Camaçari, State of Bahia
4Isoprene (November 2006) 4 Investment: US$ 29 Million; 4 Additional Capacity: + 9 k ton / year
(+50%); 4 Rate of Return: 49%; 4 Location: Camaçari, State of Bahia
4Paulínia (4Q07) 4 Investment: US$ 240 million 4 Additional Capacity: +350 k ton / year
(+60%) 4 Location: Paulínia, State of São Paulo
Source: Braskem (2005)
Brazil / Bolivia Brazil / Bolivia
Alagoas Alagoas
Bahia Bahia
Paulínia Paulínia
Triunfo Triunfo
Venezuela
Brazil / Bolivia Brazil / Bolivia
* To be presented to Braskem’s Board of Directors
4PP: Venezuela: annual 400 k ton in partnership with Pequiven*
4PE: Brazil/Bolivia Complex: annual 600 k ton (2009)*
With the Venezuelan and Bolivian units, Braskem expects to consolidate its strategic
and differentiated position in the region
New New greenfield greenfield projects based on projects based on competitive raw materials competitive raw materials
Growth with Value Creation Strong strategic position in the region Growth with Value Creation Strong strategic position in the region
4 Reliability in the supply of raw materials 4 Naphtha supply guaranteed by long‐term
contract with Petrobras; 4 Partnerships in the international markets;
4 Naphtha supply contract for up to 600kt per year with PDVSA with competitive conditions;
4 Flexibility in raw materials supply (Naphtha and Condensate);
4 Competitiveness in logistics: 4 Investment on increasing the storage capacity
at Aratu´s Port terminal tank park – State of Bahia.
Growth with Value Creation Cost competitiveness
5 5
R$ 350 million per year in recurring synergies, already captured
Strong platform for growth
R$ million
240
Jun/03
260
Sep/03
285
Dec/03
208
Mar/03
310
Mar/04
330
(2 004 )
Target
350
Dec/04
Synergies
A WorldClass Company
New Levels of Competitiveness
• Best Practices • Simplification • Integration • Compliance to to SOx
Innovation & Technology
Braskem Business System Braskem Business System
Growth with Value Creation Value‐creating process leveraged by the Braskem Business System
Innovation & Technology to leverage Value Creation Important Achievements in 2005 Innovation & Technology to leverage Value Creation Important Achievements in 2005
R$ 58 million gain with the sale of technology to Petroquímica Paulínia
1st patent in nanotechnology filed by a Brazilian Petrochemical company
171 171 researchers researchers
Alliances Alliances with Universities and Research Centers with Universities and Research Centers
Modern Modern Management Management of the innovation process of the innovation process
136 136 patent registrations filed patent registrations filed
R$ 370 R$ 370 million in assets million in assets
7 7 pilot plants pilot plants
Launch of 20 new resins
Start‐up of the 7th pilot plant
World‐wide technological cooperation agreement
with BASELL
FINEP and ABIQUIM Awards
Technological Technological Autonomy Autonomy
Results Achieved by 2005 Results Achieved by 2005
Achieved by 2005
Target by 2005
On annualizing and recurring basis
R$ 256 million in productivity gains captured by 2005
Target by 2006
Target by 2007
R$ million / year
256 170
420
360
+ 51%
Braskem + Significant acceleration in capturing productivity gains Braskem + Significant acceleration in capturing productivity gains
A New Step in the Value Creation Process A New Step in the Value Creation Process
A new integrated management system encompassing all business processes
Project
4 110 employees allocated to the project
4 Investment of R$ 130 million
4 Implementation concluded by Oct. 06
4 NPV of R$ 260 million
The Petroquisa Option Potential for relevant synergies and future cash flow impacts The Petroquisa Option Potential for relevant synergies and future cash flow impacts
15.6%
85.0%
40.0%
From 10%
Up to 30%
VOTING CAPITAL VOTING CAPITAL INCREASE: INCREASE:
Braskem has 29.5% of Copesul’s capital and jointly controls it along with the Ipiranga Group
Assets Listed Assets Listed 09/29/2005
Option Deadline Option Deadline 03/31/2006
Assets Valuation Assets Valuation DCF
Designated assets & Designated assets & respective ownership interests : respective ownership interests :
4 Market leadership in the region
4 Consistent operational performance
4 Solid financial structure
4 Ongoing competitive improvements: and
4 Structural market growth opportunities in the region
4 Consolidation in the Brazilian Petrochemical Industry: an opportunity for value creation
4 Greenfield projects in the region based upon access to competitive raw materials
4 Technology autonomy to pursue internationalization
A Unique Investment Opportunity A Unique Investment Opportunity
High Standards of Corporate Governance High Standards of Corporate Governance