approach to the wind resource assessment for the sixth power plan northwest power & conservation...

NorthwestPower andConservation

Council


Council

Approach to the Wind Resource Assessment for the Sixth Power

Plan

Northwest Power & Conservation Council

Generating Resources Advisory Committee

August 21, 2008


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Objective

• Estimate a supply curve of wind power plausibly available to the Northwest over the next 20 years

• Considering:Transmission feasibility

Competition from other load centers


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Alternative approaches

• "Informed expert" estimate (of quantity) (5th Plan)

• Adopt/modify a recent assessmentRMATS

NTAC Montana - Northwest & C-N-C studies

Western Governor's Association CDEAC initiative

US DOE 20% Wind Energy by 2030

• Build on or adopt an ongoing assessment WECC 2009 NERC Long-term Reliability Analysis (LRTA) 15%

renewables scenario

WGA/USDOE Western Renewable Energy Zone project

• Independent assessment, drawing on information from all the foregoing where feasible


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RMATS Wind Assessment*

Goal: "Identify technically, financially and environmentally viable generation projects with potential for development in the Rocky Mountain Sub-region in the near future".

Annual capacity factors and capacity values calculated for load regions based on NREL wind speed data.

* Hamilton, et al. Integrating Wind into Transmission Planning: The Rocky Mountain Area Transmission Study (RMATS). March 2004


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RMATS load regions & wind capacity factors


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NTAC C-N-C Study Resource areas & transmission corridors


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WGA CDEAC supply curves** Western Governor's Association. Clean and Diversified Energy Initiative: Wind Task Force Report. March 2006


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CDEAC resource areas


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US DOE: 20% Wind Energy by 2030

• Published May 2008; EOY 2006 data

• PNW wind characteristics based on 2002 NREL state wind power maps.

• Wind capacity expansion estimated usign NREL WinDS GIS/Linear programming capacity expansion model136 Balancing areas (load centers)

358 Wind resource regions

Transmission linkages (10% of existing capacity assumed available for wind)

Seeks "Cost-optimal" buildout

• Wind project and transmission capital and operating costs from Black & Veatch study (to be published). Terrestrial and shallow offshore technology.


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20% by 2030 Report: Somewhat counterintuitive results for PNW


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Application of existing studies

• RMATS Resource area annual capacity factors

• NTACTransmission cost information (needs escalation)No original resource information

• CDEACState-level wind resource supply curvesNo Canadian information

• USDOE 20%Wind project and transmission cost estimatesQuestionable development patterns at regional scale

• WECC/TEPPC 15% renewables scenarioResource characteristics based on new NREL mesoscale dataInsufficient wind resource

• WREZResource characteristics based on new NREL mesoscale dataRealistic resource areas and transmission corridorsUnlikely to be available in time


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Proposed approach - Regional wind supply curve• Identify principal wind resource areas available to Northwest utilities

Substantial developable wind resource

Actual transmission initiatives

Available information regarding wind characteristics

• Estimate production characteristics of each WRASeasonal and diurnal hourly output (12 mo x 24 hr)

Incremental demand for regulation & load-following (?)

• Estimate component costsWind plant (i.e., busbar + local interconnection)

• Terrestrial

• Shallow off-shore

New transmission to proposed Boardman hub (unit cost x circuit miles)

Point-to-point transmission, Boardman to LSE (to establish parity w/energy-efficiency)

Regulation & load-following


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Wind resource areas & transmission

• Preferred: WREZ resource areas and transmission corridors definitions; but, unlikely to be available in time

• Alternative: CDEAC WRAs + S. OR offshore & NTAC Canadian WRAs, guided by current transmission corridor proposals Columbia Basin buildout Central Montana S.E Idaho Central Alberta Wyoming S. OR offshore BC Coastal? SE Oregon?


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Major transmission proposals

NWE MSTI

BPA W. of McNary

BPA I-5

PG&E Canada-PNW-CA

PacifiCorp Gateway West

IPC Hemmingway - Boardman

PGE Southern Crossing

PacifiCorp Walla Walla

TransCanada Northern Lights

MATL


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Proposed Boardman hub

Wind resource areas and transmission corridors


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Estimating resource area production

• 12 mo x 24 hour time series for modelling purposes

• U.S. Resource Areas preferred option: 3-year synthetic production from NREL mesoscale dataset (30,000 points in US WECC)

• If NREL synthetic hourly not available:Aggregate historical hourly production data (Columbia Basin areas)

Synthetic production estimates from anemometer data (Columbia Basin, Montana)

Annual capacity factors from RMATS and CDEAC studies

• Alberta - AESO aggregate historical hourly production


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Estimating costs

• Wind project costs:Representative project

Terrestrial and offshore

Effective cost will vary by capacity factor

Terrestrial capital cost discussion later today, O&M costs to follow

Off-shore - LIPA study, USDOE 20% study, reported project costs.

• Transmission costsUnit costs x line length

NTAC unit costs, escalated w/consideration of other studies & reported transmission project costs

• Regulation, load-following & shaping)Initial discussion to follow this presentation


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Other issues

• Benefits of geographic diversity in reducing demand for regulation and load-following

• Assumptions regarding transmission load factor:Tradeoff between transmission cost and value of interrupted energy

Relative location of resource area and firming services.

• Inconsistent sources of wind resource data

• NPCC perspectiveCentral point of delivery (e.g. Mid-C of proposed Boardman hub)

MAy not be representative of local service

approach to the wind resource assessment for the sixth power plan northwest power & conservation...

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