appendix c-7 air emissions effects on soil ......clearwater ir175 li t l b r c h w o d cr ek m c l e...

APPENDIX C-7

AIR EMISSIONS EFFECTS ON SOIL ASSESSMENT

Northern Lights Mining and Extraction Project Appendices Supplemental Submission December 2007

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

SECTION PAGE

1 AIR EMISSIONS EFFECTS ON SOIL ASSESSMENT............................................... 1 1.1 ASSESSMENT APPROACH...........................................................................................1

1.1.1 Study Area .......................................................................................................1 1.1.2 Soil Assessment Methods................................................................................3

1.2 BASELINE CASE ............................................................................................................3 1.3 APPLICATION CASE ......................................................................................................7

1.3.1 Effects Analysis................................................................................................8 1.3.2 Effects Classification......................................................................................11

1.4 CEA CASE.....................................................................................................................12 1.5 CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................................16

2 REFERENCES.......................................................................................................... 17

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1 Fixed Case Soil Critical Load Exceedances by Township in the Terrestrial Resources Air Emissions Effects Study Area - Baseline Case ...............................4

Table 2 Soil Mid-Case Critical Load Exceedances by Township in the Terrestrial Resources Air Emissions Effects Study Area - Baseline Case ...............................6

Table 3 Areas of Fixed Case Soil Critical Loads Exceedances in the Terrestrial Resources Air Emissions Effects Study Area - Application Case ...........................8

Table 4 Fixed Case Soil Critical Load Exceedances by Township in the Terrestrial Resources Air Emissions Effects Study Area - Application Case ...........................8

Table 5 Soil Mid-Case Critical Load Exceedances by Township in the Terrestrial Resources Air Emissions Effects Study Area - Application Case .........................10

Table 6 Effects Classification of Soils Potentially Affected by Acidification Due to the Project: Application Case.................................................................................11

Table 7 Areas of Fixed Case Soil Critical Loads Exceedances in the Terrestrial Resources Air Emissions Effects Study Area - CEA Case....................................12

Table 8 Fixed Case Soil Critical Load Exceedances by Township in the Terrestrial Resources Air Emissions Effects Study Area - CEA Case....................................13

Table 9 Soil Mid-Case Critical Load Exceedances by Township in the Terrestrial Resources Air Emissions Effects Study Area - CEA Case....................................15

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1 Terrestrial Resources Air Emissions Effects Study Area.........................................2 Figure 2 Soil Critical Load Exceedances in the Terrestrial Resources Air Emissions

Effects Study Area : Baseline Case.........................................................................5 Figure 3 Soil Critical Load Exceedances in the Terrestrial Resources Air Emissions

Effects Study Area : Application Case.....................................................................9 Figure 4 Soil Critical Load Exceedances in the Terrestrial Resources Air Emissions

Effects Study Area : CEA Case .............................................................................14


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1 AIR EMISSIONS EFFECTS ON SOIL ASSESSMENT

1.1 ASSESSMENT APPROACH

The objective of this assessment is to evaluate the potential effects of air emissions on soil for the Baseline Case, Application Case and Cumulative Effects Assessment (CEA) Case. Air emissions and the resulting effect predictions within the study areas for these cases are described in Part 2C, Section 4.0.

Potential effects of air emissions considered in this assessment include acid deposition resulting from emissions of oxides of nitrogen (NOX) and sulphur dioxide (SO2).

The air quality assessment and the associated assessment of effects on soil consider worst case expected emissions through the life of the Project. Three assessment scenarios or cases (Baseline, Application and CEA cases) were identified for evaluating possible air quality-related effects associated with the Project.

The assessment of effects on soils will not be affected by the construction strategy employed or the start-up schedule (i.e., single phase or two phase). Both construction strategies utilize the same mining and production equipment and occupy essentially the same development timelines.

1.1.1 Study Area

The Terrestrial Resources Air Emissions Effects Study Area (TASA), as shown in Figure 1, encompasses an area of 376,540 ha and is situated within the Boreal Mixedwood Ecoregion of the boreal forest (Natural Regions Committee 2006). The TASA was sized to ensure that all sensitive terrestrial soil potentially affected by project-related air emissions were included in the assessment. The TASA was created using the furthest measurable extent of predicted potential impact for Potential Acid Input (PAI) for the Baseline Case, Application Case and CEA Case.

Gregoire Lake

Lynton

Fort McKay

Fort McMurray

Firebag River

RiverMarguerite

FirebagRiver

Muskeg

CalumetPierre

Beaver

North S

teepba

nk Riv

er

Clearwater

River

High Hill R

iver

Steepbank

Steepbank

MacKa

y River

Beaver R

.

Fishery R.

Athabasca

Ells River

Dover River

Tar River

River

River

River

R.

R.

River

River

Athabas

ca River

Namur River IR174A

Fort McKay IR174

Clearwater IR175

Little

BirchwoodCreek McLean Cr.

Shipyard Lake

Gregoire Lake IR176A

Gordon LakeBaker Lake

Clear Lake

Nora Lake

McClellandLake

Saline Lake

River

ChristinaRiver

Tp90

Tp89

Tp88

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Tp87

Tp93

Tp92

Tp91

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TERRESTRIAL RESOURCES AIREMISSIONS EFFECTS STUDY AREAFIGURE: 1

PROJECT No. 06-1346-021 SCALE AS SHOWN

PROJECT

TITLE

GISREVIEW

VR 22 Jan. 2007CHECK DDDC

JA 04 Oct. 200704 Oct. 200715 Nov. 2007

LEGEND

Alberta digital data obtained from AltaLIS Ltd. (September 2004), IHS Energy Ltd. (August 2006), Alberta Pacific Ltd. (April 2004),Pearson Timberline Ltd. (April 2004), AOSERP (1982), EUB, AGS, LANDSAT 7 ETM Imagery (July 2006), and Alberta SRD, usedunder license. Saskatchewan digital data obtained from Information Services Corp. (September 2004), used under license.Projection: Transverse Mercator Datum: NAD 83 Coordinate System: UTM Zone 12.

REFERENCE

NORTHERN LIGHTS PROJECT

TERRESTRIAL AIR STUDY AREAINDIAN RESERVEOPEN WATERPUBLIC ROADWAYRAILROAD

DEVELOPEDEXISTING URBAN AND INDUSTRIALBASELINE DISTURBANCEEXISTING URBAN AND INDUSTRIAL LINEAR BASELINE DISTURBANCE

KILOMETRES20 0 20

1:750,000SCALE


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1.1.2 Soil Assessment Methods

The soil acidification assessment methods included consideration of the Cumulative Environmental Management Association (CEMA) publication “Recommendations for the Acid Deposition Management Framework for the Oil Sands Region of North-Eastern Alberta” (CEMA 2004).

The 50 year, fixed-case soil critical loads were selected for this assessment and exceedances were calculated for non-disturbed areas only. The procedure was as follows:

• fixed-case 50-year soil series specific critical loads were selected for detailed impact assessment analysis);

• the soil net PAI contours from air dispersion modelling were calculated for the Baseline Case, Application Case and CEA Case;

• the soil net PAI contours for the Baseline Case, Application Case and CEA Case were overlain on the soil maps and a Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to designate the areas in the TASA where soil critical loads were exceeded;

• if a lake critical load was exceeded, the soils in the watershed of the lake were assumed to have critical loads exceeded as per methods described in CEMA (2004);

• the area and percentage of soils above critical loads for each township in the TASA was outlined on a map and presented in tables;

• the net change in areas affected between the Baseline and Application cases for the TASA was calculated; and

• effects ratings were made based on the total areas affected in the TASA for both the Application Case and CEA Case.

Soil critical loads have been determined by relating specific soil chemistry changes (i.e., base cation to aluminum ratio, pH) to PAI.

1.2 BASELINE CASE

The area and percentage of Baseline Case occurrences in excess of soil critical loads by townships in the TASA is summarized in Table 1. This data is also illustrated in Figure 2. For the Baseline Case, 7,640 ha of soils (2% of the TASA) exceed the soil series specific critical loads. Geographically, critical load exceedances for soil are located around emissions sources north of Fort McMurray. Of the 58 townships considered in the assessment, nine had areas above the applicable critical loads.


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Table 1 Fixed Case Soil Critical Load Exceedances by Township in the Terrestrial Resources Air Emissions Effects Study Area - Baseline Case

Location(a) [Township/Range]

Full Township Area [ha]

Area Above Critical Load [ha]

Percent of Township Exceeding Critical Load

93/09 9,477 110 1

95/06 5,779 832 14 95/08 9,533 107 1 95/10 9,538 120 1 95/11 9,516 2,840 30 96/10 9,511 1,132 12 96/11 9,496 1,976 21 97/10 9,481 27

Gregoire Lake

Lynton

Fort McKay

Fort McMurray

Firebag River

RiverMarguerite

FirebagRiver

Muskeg

CalumetPierre

Beaver

North S

teepba

nk Riv

er

Clearwater

River

High Hill R

iver

Steepbank

Steepbank

MacKa

y River

Beaver R

.

Fishery R.

Athabasca

Ells River

Dover River

Tar River

River

River

River

R.

R.

River

River

Athabas

ca River

Namur River IR174A

Fort McKay IR174

Clearwater IR175

Little


Shipyard Lake



Clear Lake

Nora Lake

McClellandLake

Saline Lake

River

ChristinaRiver

Tp90

Tp89

Tp88

Tp94

Tp87

Tp93

Tp92

Tp91

Tp98

Tp97

Tp96

Tp95

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Tp100


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SOIL CRITICAL LOAD EXCEEDANCESIN THE TERRESTRIAL RESOURCES AIR EMISSIONS EFFECTS STUDY AREA: BASELINE CASEFIGURE: 2


PROJECT

TITLE

GISREVIEW


JA 04 Oct. 200704 Oct. 200715 Nov. 2007

LEGEND


REFERENCE

NORTHERN LIGHTS PROJECT

0.17 keq/ha/yr ISOPLETH0.25 keq/ha/yr ISOPLETHEXCEEDANCE



KILOMETRES20 0 20

1:750,000SCALE


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The area and percentage of Baseline Case exceedances of soil mid-case critical loads by townships in the TASA is summarized in Table 2. For the Baseline Case, 18,373 ha of soils (5% of the TASA) exceed the soil series specific critical loads. Geographically, critical load exceedances for soil are located around emissions sources north of Fort McMurray. A total of 23 townships predicted some areas above the applicable critical loads.

Table 2 Soil Mid-Case Critical Load Exceedances by Township in the Terrestrial Resources Air Emissions Effects Study Area - Baseline Case



Area Above Critical Load [ha]

Percent of Township Exceeding Critical

Load

92/09 9,499 6


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1.3 APPLICATION CASE

The potential effects of acidifying emissions on sensitive ecosystems have been described in terms of critical loads, which are defined as “the highest load that will not cause chemical changes leading to long-term effects on the most sensitive ecosystem according to our present knowledge” (Bull 1991). An exceedance of the critical load suggests a potential excess of acidity compared to alkalinity in the soil. This increases the risk of soil acidification that may ultimately affect long-term forest growth (DeVries et al. 1994). Short-term exceedances of soil critical loads will not necessarily result in measurable effects on forest soil ecosystems, but the risk of impacts increases with time of exposure (Maynard 1996).

Air modelling information suggests acid deposition will exceed the soil critical loads in some areas. Therefore, there is a valid linkage between air quality and soils.

Since reclaimed mine soils are located close to air deposition sources, they may be potentially exposed to high levels of acid deposition. Analysis of reclaimed soils showed that all nine reclaimed sites would be classified as having a low sensitivity to acidification. Therefore the assessment excluded these disturbed areas from the soil acidification assessment.

The assessment of effects on soils will not be affected by the construction strategy employed or the start-up schedule (i.e., single phase or two phase). Both construction strategies utilize the same mining and production equipment and occupy essentially the same development timelines.

The mine plan, which is based on the resources in place, will be unchanged with the use of either the Modularization Construction Strategy (MCS) or the Conventional Construction Strategy (CCS). Additionally, the mining technology employed will be the same for either construction strategy.

As discussed in Part 1, Section 3.2, the MCS will allow for a single phase start-up as opposed to the two phase start-up if the CCS is used. The single phase start-up accelerates the mine production schedule in the first few years mining in order to supply the appropriate amount of ore to meet full production earlier than in the two phase, CCS scenario. This accelerated ramp-up period will off-set the mine production schedule by less than a year over the life of the mine. As such, the end of mining will still occur in 2038.


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1.3.1 Effects Analysis

The areas of soils exceeding the critical loads for the Application Case are summarized in Table 3 and by township in Table 4. There is a change in the areas of soils potentially affected by acidification between the Baseline and Application cases of 50 ha (

Gregoire Lake

Lynton

Fort McKay

Fort McMurray

Firebag River

RiverMarguerite

FirebagRiver

Muskeg

CalumetPierre

Beaver

North S

teepba

nk Riv

er

Clearwater

River

High Hill R

iver

Steepbank

Steepbank

MacKa

y River

Beaver R

.

Fishery R.

Athabasca

Ells River

Dover River

Tar River

River

River

River

R.

R.

River

River

Athabas

ca River

Namur River IR174A

Fort McKay IR174

Clearwater IR175

Little


Shipyard Lake



Clear Lake

Nora Lake

McClellandLake

Saline Lake

River

ChristinaRiver

Tp90

Tp89

Tp88

Tp94

Tp87

Tp93

Tp92

Tp91

Tp98

Tp97

Tp96

Tp95

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Tp100


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SOIL CRITICAL LOAD EXCEEDANCESIN THE TERRESTRIAL RESOURCES AIR EMISSIONS EFFECTS STUDY AREA: APPLICATION CASEFIGURE: 3


PROJECT

TITLE

GISREVIEW


JA 04 Oct. 200704 Oct. 200715 Nov. 2007

LEGEND


REFERENCE

NORTHERN LIGHT PROJECT

0.17 keq/ha/yr ISOPLETH0.25 keq/ha/yr ISOPLETHEXCEEDANCE


IMPACT DISTURBANCE


KILOMETRES20 0 20

1:750,000SCALE


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The area and percentage of soil mid-case critical load exceedances by townships for the Application Case in the TASA is summarized in Table 5. There is a change in the areas of soils potentially affected by acidification between the Baseline and Application cases of 320 ha (


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1.3.2 Effects Classification

The environmental consequence of the Project on soil acidification is rated as negligible due to small increases in the area of soils potentially affected by PAI due to the Project (Table 6). The effects of air emissions on soils are regional in extent. Sources of emissions are considered long-term, as these sources will be present for the life of the Project. The effects of PAI are considered both reversible and irreversible as soils have the potential to recover from acidification over time. In the region, there is an almost constant source of air emissions from present and future projects, so frequency is considered high.

Table 6 Effects Classification of Soils Potentially Affected by Acidification Due to the Project: Application Case

Direction Magnitude Geographic Extent Duration Reversibility Frequency Environmental Consequence

positive negligible regional long-term reversible/ irreversible high negligible

Certainty and Prediction Confidence

The evaluation of changes to soils due to acidification involves the application of the existing scientific knowledge base and model predictions. As with any predictions, there are uncertainties regarding the model’s capability to accurately predict effects. The major sources of uncertainty include those associated with the use of critical loads, model predictions of PAI, data quantity and quality, and the knowledge base concerning the connection between soil net PAI and acid sensitivity of soils in the TASA.

Several qualifications apply to the predicted effects from acidifying emissions. First, the soil net PAI values are generated by model simulations and thus subject to inherent limitations associated with the specific model being used.

Second, the soil critical loads are based on literature (Abboud et al. 2002) and not verified on field data.

Despite such qualifications, by applying critical loads and sensitivity classes based on the scientific literature, confidence can be given in that the most applicable measures have been used. The soil critical loads have been developed by leading Alberta researchers (Abboud et al. 2002) and are accepted by the provincial government. The scientific basis behind the determination of these critical loads lends a reasonable level of confidence to the assessment.


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Areas potentially affected can be assessed with a reasonable degree of certainty using the currently available information. Thus, the percent change of areas potentially affected is a reasonable measure of the impacts of each assessment case. As the knowledge base increases, the level of uncertainty regarding the analysis will decrease.

1.4 CEA CASE

The CEA Case assessment included an evaluation of atmospheric releases from the Project, in combination with the emissions from existing, approved and planned sources in the region.

Effects Analysis

The areas of soils exceeding the critical loads for the CEA Case are summarized in Table 7 and by township in Table 8. There is a change in the areas of soils potentially affected by acidification between the Baseline Case and CEA Case of 1,031 ha (


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Table 8 Fixed Case Soil Critical Load Exceedances by Township in the Terrestrial Resources Air Emissions Effects Study Area - CEA Case



Area Above Critical

Load [ha]

Percent of Township Exceeding Critical

Load

93/09 9,477 110 1 94/10 9,465 753 8 94/11 9,453 46

Gregoire Lake

Lynton

Fort McKay

Fort McMurray

Firebag River

RiverMarguerite

FirebagRiver

Muskeg

CalumetPierre

Beaver

North S

teepba

nk Riv

er

Clearwater

River

High Hill R

iver

Steepbank

Steepbank

MacKa

y River

Beaver R

.

Fishery R.

Athabasca

Ells River

Dover River

Tar River

River

River

River

R.

R.

River

River

Athabas

ca River

Namur River IR174A

Fort McKay IR174

Clearwater IR175

Little


Shipyard Lake



Clear Lake

Nora Lake

McClellandLake

Saline Lake

River

ChristinaRiver

Tp90

Tp89

Tp88

Tp94

Tp87

Tp93

Tp92

Tp91

Tp98

Tp97

Tp96

Tp95

Tp86

Tp99

Tp101

Tp100


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SOIL CRITICAL LOAD EXCEEDANCESIN THE TERRESTRIAL RESOURCES AIR EMISSIONS EFFECTS STUDY AREA: CEA CASEFIGURE: 4


PROJECT

TITLE

GISREVIEW


JA 04 Oct. 200704 Oct. 200715 Nov. 2007

LEGEND


REFERENCE

NORTHERN LIGHTS PROJECTKILOMETRES

20 0 201:750,000SCALE

IMPACT DISTURBANCE

DEVELOPEDEXISTING URBAN AND INDUSTRIALBASELINE DISTURBANCEEXISTING URBAN AND INDUSTRIAL LINEAR BASELINE DISTURBANCEPLANNED DISTURBANCE

TERRESTRIAL AIR STUDY AREA & 0.17 keq/ha/yr ISOPLETHINDIAN RESERVEOPEN WATERPUBLIC ROADWAYRAILROAD

0.25 keq/ha/yr ISOPLETHEXCEEDANCE


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The area and percentage of CEA Case exceedances of soil mid-case critical loads by townships in the TASA is summarized in Table 9. For the CEA Case, 21,437 ha (6% of the TASA) exceed the soil series specific critical loads. This is an increase of 3,064 ha from the Baseline Case (


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1.5 CONCLUSIONS

The assessment of the effects of air emissions on soils consisted of:

• a Baseline Case assessment of soil critical loads within the Terrestrial Resources Air Emissions Effects Study Area (TASA);

• an assessment of potential soil critical load exceedances of the Project (Application Case); and

• an assessment of potential soil critical load exceedances of the Project and other planned developments in the region (CEA Case).

The soil assessment methods included consideration of the CEMA (2004) approach for calculating soil critical load exceedances. This included assessing critical load exceedances for all soils in watersheds of lakes that exceeded lake critical loads.

Under the Baseline Case, 7,640 ha of soil (2% of the TASA) receive soil net PAI in excess of their critical loads. Exceedances were generally centered over existing developments in the TASA.

Under the Application Case, 7,690 ha of soil (2% of the TASA) are expected to receive PAI in excess of their critical loads. There is a predicted increase of 50 ha (


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2 REFERENCES

Abboud, S.A., L.W. Turchenek and L.A. Halsey. 2002. Critical Loads of Acid Deposition on Soils in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region, Alberta. Prepared for NOX-SO2 Management Working Group, Cumulative Environmental Management Association.

Bull, K.R. 1991. The Critical Loads/Levels Approach to Gaseous Pollutant Control. Environmental Pollution. 69: 105-123.

CEMA (Cumulative Environmental Management Association). 2004. Recommendations for the Acid Deposition Management Framework for the Oil Sands Region of North-Eastern Alberta. Approved February 25, 2004. Fort McMurray, AB. 39 pp.

DeVries, W., G.J. Reinds and M. Posch. 1994. Assessment of Critical Loads and Their Exceedance on European Forests Using a One-Layer Steady State Model. Water, Air and Soil Pollution. 72: 357-394.

Maynard, D.G. 1996. Critical and Target Loads of Soils and Vegetation in Alberta. In: Target Loading Subgroup Final Report on Critical and Target Loading in Alberta.

Natural Regions Committee. 2006. Natural Regions and Subregions of Alberta. Compiled by D.J. Downing and W.W. Pettapiece. Government of Alberta. Pub NO. T/852

Main MenuSearchAPPENDIX C-7 AIR EMISSIONS EFFECTS ON SOIL ASSESSMENTTABLE OF CONTENTS1 AIR EMISSIONS EFFECTS ON SOIL ASSESSMENT1.1 ASSESSMENT APPROACH1.1.1 Study Area1.1.2 Soil Assessment Methods

1.2 BASELINE CASE1.3 APPLICATION CASE1.3.1 Effects Analysis1.3.2 Effects Classification

1.4 CEA CASE1.5 CONCLUSIONS

2 REFERENCES

appendix c-7 air emissions effects on soil ......clearwater ir175 li t l b r c h w o d cr ek m c l e...

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