apf trading technical analysis market commentary customised 14 feb 2011

8/7/2019 APF Trading Technical Analysis Market Commentary Customised 14 Feb 2011

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14 February 2011 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Market Commentary (Customized)

GMG Global Ltd

We examine the weekly charts as a basis and then proceed for multi time frame analysis on longer

term monthly charts.

GGL SP had a good rally following the qualified (represented by the solid green horizontal line)

breakout above TDST line at 0.150 in early April 2010. The bullish momentum was established anda perfected sell setup was recorded (represented by a red arrow pointing down). Setup perfections

tend to suggest a 1-4 price bar correction.

The TDST at 0.220 serves as support level. Prices are consolidating sideways with a new sell setupin play (i.e. counter is trying to establish a bull trend). Concurrently a TD Sequential SellCountdown is in play.

APF Trading Pte. Ltd.9 Battery Road12F Straits Trading BuildingSingapore 049910

Jay Ng [email protected]

Glenn [email protected]

Website:www.apftrading.comwww.asiapacfinance.com


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As seen in TD Sequential, the Tenkan Sen crosses over the Kijun Sen above the Kumo. The Kumo

served as good support levels. The Chikou was above prices. It makes the case for a good soar intoclear blue skies. As it did early in 2010.

Since then, prices had stayed above the Kijun Sen as we would have expected in a nice bull rally.The Kumo is thickening, suggesting good support region.

Notice how the Kijun Sen became a flat horizontal line since Dec 2010. As a rubber band effect that

we always see come into action, prices gravitates toward the Kijun Sen (yellow line), breakingbelow the Tenkan Sen (Magenta Line)

Notice also the angle of the Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B (the 2 lines that make up theKumo) is flat as well. There seem to be signs of a consolidation sideways. Should prices hit theKumo in the region, the bull trend would come under challenge.

The first line of defence stands at 0.2750

For weekly, in conclusion, GGL SP is skewed towards the upside with strong Kumo support region. A break below the Kijun Sen at 0.2750 would undermine its bull trend skew.


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We then look at higher time frame, monthly charts. The most obvious observation with the

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo trend following system is the distance between prices and both the Tenkan Sen

and Kijun Sen. Although the bull trend is still in play, with all elements in support of the bull, a

rubber band effect pulling prices back down towards the Tenkan Sen or even the Kijun Sen wouldhardly be surprising.

The longer term chart is aligned with the view that the overall bull trend is intact with a good

chance of a correction.


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Dongfeng Motor Group

There were very interesting developments ncluding the coincidence of the perfected buy setup righton the base of the Kumo in Jun 2010. Is that beautiful art or precise science?

However lets delve straight into current price development. 2 weeks back there is a bearish

crossover as the Tenkan Sen crosses below the Kijun Sen. This happened above the Kumo and is

what is commonly known as a weak bearish crossover. The Chikou Span is still above prices and

current price is stuck between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen. TD Setup recorded a perfected buy

setup

All these seem to suggest a lack of trend.


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The longer term charts however show a bull picture with the price above all support levels, TenkenSen above Kijun Sen, Chikou Span above price.


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Lastly we turn to daily charts to see how short term price action is developing. Bear in mind that

the monthly charts are bullish biased while weekly charts are mixed. Hardly surprising that daily

charts here are showing mixed sentiments as well. Tenken Sen and Kijun Sen is in a period of upsand downs. Prices are breaking in and out of the Kumo.

With this sort of charts it is best to stay away. In conclusion, we expect prices to be stuck in atrading range until some further developments aligns it towards the long term bull bias.


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Midland Holdings

Another chart where prices are flirting around the cloud and really nothing much of a trend or thestart/end of a trend is suggested.

It is just a mixture of elements which negates each other. The Chikou is currently slightly above

price, current price is below the Kumo, with Tenkan Sen below the Kijun Sen. However see how

thin the Kumo really is. The resistance is weak.

The Kijun Sen and Senkou Span B is kind of really just flat. Volume is dwindling.

Conclusion, prices are stuck in a trading range (well, it happens 70% of the time anyway). We look at the other time frames to see how prices are developing.


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Similarly, prices are just in turbulence mode in and out of the clouds. Notice how the Senkou SpanB, Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen are all flat!

Prices are stuck in between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen. The last crossover was a bearish

crossover but Chikou is currently above prices. This is aligned to the weekly charts where prices arein no mans land.


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Shorter term prices are slightly more skewed to the downside with a medium bearish crossover inplay and the Chikou Span below prices.

However watch the dwindling volume. Also we are very conscious of how prices looked on thelonger time frames. Maintain a view of prices stucked in a range with no clear signs of trendingmarkets either way.

APF Trading is a trading advisory firm offering clients advice on multi-asset trading strategies,

signals, trading systems, execution services and trading platforms. The firm also conducts researchand technical analysis with a focus on Ichimoku Kinko Hyo and DeMark Indicators.

apf trading technical analysis market commentary customised 14 feb 2011

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