apex home loans 3-11-14jc [read-only]cra.gmu.edu/pdfs/studies_reports_presentations/apex_mar... ·...

3/20/2014

GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1

Apex Home Loans Spring Housing Briefing

March 20, 2014

The Washington AreaEconomy and Housing Market:

Current Performance and Outlook

Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D.Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor

Director, Center for Regional AnalysisGeorge Mason University

The U.S. Economy’s CurrentPerformance and Outlook

3/20/2014


-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

U.S. Gross Domestic ProductQuarterly Change: 2007 – 2015

%Forecast > >

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Global Insight March 14, 2014

U.S. Payroll Job Change by SectorFeb 2013 – Feb 2014

-42

-93

88

33

116

182

61

61

404

282

668

61

337

-600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600

Information

Federal Govt.

Transp. & Util.

Other Services

Wlse Trade

Construction

Financial

Manufacturing

Leisure & Hosp.

Retail Trade

Prof. & Bus. Svcs

State & Local Govt

Educ & Health Svcs

(000s) Total = 2,158Ranked by Size in 2014

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

3/20/2014


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

U.S. Unemployment Rate

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), IHS Global Insight March 13, 2014

Feb = 6.7

%

GI FCST13 – 7.414 – 6.415 – 5.916 – 5.417 – 5.118 – 5.019 – 5.0

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

201

9

Consumer Prices2001 - 2019

Forecast > > > > >

%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Global Insight March 13, 2014

3/20/2014


-

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

30-Yr

10-Yr Treas

Fed

Interest Rates2001 - 2019

Forecast > > > >

Source: IHS Global Insight March 13, 2014

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14

100

Consumer Confidence

Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Expectations

Current Situation

3/20/2014


200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

Existing (Left Axis)

New (Right Axis)

U.S. New and Existing Home Sales

(000s) (000s)

Source: National Association of Home Builders (New), National Association of Realtors (Existing)

Residential Construction and Resales Forecasts

(millions of Units)

Year Housing Starts Existing House Sales

2005 2.073 7.076

2011 0.612 4.278

2012 0.783 4.661

2013 0.931 5.073

2014 1.101 5.164

2015 1.479 5.769

2016 1.622 5.730

2017 1.609 5.429

2018 1.604 5.376Source: IHS Global Insight “US Executive Summary” March 13, 2014

3/20/2014


-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

GDP

Residential Fixed

Non-Res: Structures

State & Local

Federal

Bus. Inv.-Eq & Sfwr

%

U.S. Economic Performance

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Global Insight March13, 2014

Forecast > > > >

The Washington Economy:Impacts of the Recession

and the Sequester and 2013 Performance

3/20/2014


-4

-2

0

2

4

62

00

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

%

Source: IHS Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

U.S. GDP and Washington Area GRP 2001 – 2013 – 2018

Washington

U.S.

15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change: 2012 – 2013

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

(000s)

Washington + 30,300

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

3/20/2014


15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change: Jan 2013 – Jan 2014

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160(000s)

Washington +20,900


Job Change by SectorJan 2013 – Jan 2014

Washington MSA

0

0

-3

-1

3

3

3

13

6

6

10

-9

-11

(20.0) (10.0) - 10.0 20.0 30.0

Transp. & Util.

Wlse Trade

Manufacturing

Information

Financial

Other Services

Construction

Leisure & Hosp.

Retail Trade

State & Local Govt

Educ & Health Svcs

Federal Govt.

Prof. & Bus. Svcs

(000s) Total = 20,900


3/20/2014


Job Change by SectorDec 2013 – Jan 2014

Washington MSA

-2

0

0

0

-1

1

-3

-5

-15

-11

-5

-1

-12

(20.0) (10.0) - 10.0 20.0 30.0

Transp. & Util.

Wlse Trade

Manufacturing

Information

Financial

Other Services

Construction

Leisure & Hosp.

Retail Trade

State & Local Govt

Educ & Health Svcs

Federal Govt.

Prof. & Bus. Svcs

(000s) Total = -54,600


Professional & Business ServicesWashington MSA

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

200

2

200

5

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

(000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Jan-14 Total: 690.3Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

3/20/2014


Federal GovernmentWashington MSA

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

200

2

200

5

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

(000s)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Jan-14 Total: 368.0

Annual Data Annual Month over Year

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Annual Job ChangeDistrict of Columbia, 2002-2014

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

200

2

200

5

200

8


2010 2011 2012 2013


3/20/2014


Annual Job ChangeSuburban Maryland, 2002-2014

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

200

2

200

5

200

8


2010 2011 2012 2013


Annual Job ChangeNorthern Virginia, 2002-2014

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

200

2

200

5

200

8


2010 2011 2012 2013


3/20/2014


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

6.9 – DC

6.7 – U.S.

4.9 – SMD

4.6 – MSA

3.9 - NVA

Unemployment Rates in the WMSA By Sub-State Area, 2006-2013

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US – Seasonally Adjusted)

Housing Market Trendsin the Washington Area

3/20/2014


-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Feb =+ 11.5%

Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes

Month-Over-Year 2000 – 2014, MSA

Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis. Total monthly inventory includes listings active at the end of the month plus sales during the month.

Active ListingsWashington MSA

All Housing Types, each month by year

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Source: RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI), Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

3/20/2014


Active ListingsSuburban Maryland


0

2,500

5,000

7,500

10,000

12,500

15,000

17,500

20,000


2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013


Active ListingsNorthern Virginia


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000


2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013


3/20/2014


Total Sales by Sub-State AreaWashington MSA

All Property Types

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

No. VA

Sub. MD

D.C.

Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

115K

72K

Total Sales by Property TypeWashington MSA

All Property Types

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

SFD

SFA

Condo


115K

72K

3/20/2014


Total Listings Per SaleFeb Each Year

-

5

10

15

20

25

LDN

PG

FFX

ARL

DC

MONT

PW


100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Median House Sales PriceWashington MSA

$354.0KFeb 2014


(000s)

3/20/2014


Average Sales Price Percent ChangeWashington MSA

All Housing Types

6

10

1413

2122

2 2

-16

-10

6 64

65 4

75

4

8 9

2 2 13

13 4

-1

1 2

-7-4-5

3 36 6

9

3 4 36

810

14

6

11108 8

9 87

8 9

4 57

9

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

%

Annual Change Annual Change by Month

2010 2011 2012 2013


Median Sale PriceWashington MSA

All Housing Types

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

D.C.

No. VA

MSA

Sub. MD


3/20/2014


Average Sales Price Percent ChangeMetro Area – Single Family Detached

21

51

-18

-11

52

46

3 25

35

9 9

2 2

0

31 2 2

-20

0

-11

-5-7

2 2 3 48

4 3 25

79

15

4

1113

10107 8 8

1011

3 5 610

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

2005

2009

Ap

r

Au

g

Dec

Ap

r

Au

g

Dec

Ap

r

Au

g

Dec

Ap

r

Au

g

Dec

%Annual Change Annual Change by Month

2010 2011 2012 2013

Feb % ∆: DC = +29.5, SM = +12.8, NV = +7.5


Average Sale PriceWashington MSA

Single-Family Detached Homes

$0

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

D.C.

No. VA

MSA

Sub. MD


3/20/2014


Average Sales Price Percent ChangeMetro Area – Single Family Attached

23

30

-21

-7

9

17

91213

610

6 5 58 7 6

1

53 2 2

0

5 5

-2-4

15 5

8 7 85

3 3

1013

17

96

13101110

141211

7 74

7

14

5

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

2005

2009

Ap

r

Au

g

Dec

Ap

r

Au

g

Dec

Ap

r

Au

g

Dec

Ap

r

Au

g

Dec

%

Feb % ∆: DC = +4.1, SM = +11.0 NV = +2.3



2010 2011 2012 2013


Single-Family Attached Homes

$0

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000D.C.

MSA

No. VA

Sub. MD


3/20/2014


Average Sales Price Percent ChangeMetro Area – Condos

23

04

-8-10

25

-4

26

0

42

-5

35

-7-9

-2-3-6

1

-1-2-2-10

-6

-1

1

0

811

9 8 9 8 9 7 7

1613

117 6

2

12

2

8 7 610

58 9

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

2005

2009

Ap

r

Au

g

Dec

Ap

r

Au

g

Dec

Ap

r

Au

g

Dec

Ap

r

Au

g

Dec

%

Feb % ∆: DC = +7.2, SM = +13.7, NV = +4.5



2010 2011 2012 2013


Condo Homes

$0

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

D.C.

MSA

Sub. MD

No. VA


3/20/2014


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Washington MSABuilding Permits

2001 – 2014, 3-Month Mvg Avg

Source: Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

New Building Permits for Privately Owned Residential Units, WMSA

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

5+ Units

2-4 Units

SF

Building Type:

Source: Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

2004: 38K

2013: 24K

3/20/2014


Economic Outlook for the Washington Metropolitan Area:

2013-2018

Employment Change in the WMSA

by Sub-State Area (000s)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

D.C. 14.1 5.6 11.0 9.7 11.3 9.3 6.5 4.6

Sub. MD 4.4 4.8 6.7 18.1 22.7 20.0 14.3 12.2

No. VA 26.4 23.5 12.6 32.2 31.8 36.8 35.0 30.3

REGION 42.6 32.2 30.3 60.2 66.1 66.4 56.2 47.5

Average Annual Change 1990-2010 = 35,800

Source: BLS, IHS Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional AnalysisNOTE: The regional totals include Jefferson, WV.

3/20/2014


-2-101234567

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

%

Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Economic Outlook (GRP)Washington Area & Sub-State Areas, 2001-2018

(Annual % Change)

DCSMMSANV

Thank You

Questions

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