apca the 2012 corn predicament daryll e. ray and harwood d. schaffer university of tennessee...
TRANSCRIPT
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APCA
The 2012 Corn Predicament
Daryll E. Ray and Harwood D. SchafferUniversity of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture
Agricultural Policy Analysis Center
National Packing MeetingUnited Food and Commercial Workers
Chicago, IllinoisAugust 15, 2012
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APCA
The Situation
• Most wide-reaching drought since 1956• Hottest July on record dating back to
1895• Corn yield by USDA as of Aug. 10
– Down 16% from last year’s reduced yield– Down 25% from more normal yield three
years ago, 2009
• Corn production projected to be lowest since 2006
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APCA
Want to do Three Things
• Visually put the corn “The Situation” into historical perspective
• No Reserve? What is the deal with that?– Haven’t we, and other countries, had
reserves programs in the past?
• What if commodity programs between 1998 and 2010 had been replaced with a “reserve program?” (NFU study)
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APCA
Corn Yield
19601963
19661969
19721975
19781981
19841987
19901993
19961999
20022005
20082011
0.0
25.0
50.0
75.0
100.0
125.0
150.0
175.0
83 8809
Bushels/Acre
-32 Bu.-28%
-35 Bu.-29%
-41 Bu.-25%
-24 Bu.-16%
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APCA
Corn Yield and Production
19601963
19661969
19721975
19781981
19841987
19901993
19961999
20022005
20082011
0.0
25.0
50.0
75.0
100.0
125.0
150.0
175.0
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Bushels/Acre Mil. Bu.
Yield
Production
-28%-49%
-29%-31%
8883
-16%-13%
12
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APCA
Corn ProductionUtilization and Reserves
19601963
19661969
19721975
19781981
19841987
19901993
19961999
20022005
20082011
0.0
2,000.0
4,000.0
6,000.0
8,000.0
10,000.0
12,000.0
14,000.0
Mil. Bu.
Utilization
Production
Reserves(CCC and FOR)
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APCA
Corn Price & Reserves
19601963
19661969
19721975
19781981
19841987
19901993
19961999
20022005
20082011
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
$9.00
Mil. Bu.
Reserves
71 77 96
Price
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APCA
Corn Price and Feed Demand
19601963
19661969
19721975
19781981
19841987
19901993
19961999
20022005
20082011
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
$9.00
Mil. Bu.
PriceFeed
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APCA
Reserves Are Not a New Idea
• Egypt– 1750 BC– Biblical story of Joseph and Pharaoh– 7 fat years followed by 7 lean years
• China– Beginning in 54 BC– Had its ups and downs over period of 2,000
years– “Constant Normal Granary”– China currently holds large stocks for domestic
needs
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APCA
US Experience
• United States– 1929-1996 AD– Federal Farm Board – stock holding in attempt to
stabilize price– Commodity Credit Corporation
• Stabilize price• Ever Normal Granary• Manage supply
– Factors that brought reserves into disrepute• Inconsistent management or mismanagement by those
who did not believe in rationale for reserves and price stabilization
• Dumping of excess on world market
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APCA
Arguments Against Reserves
• Commercials argued they would provide reserves– Government “interference” not needed
• Not to worry– Free trade will guarantee availability from one
country or another• Too expensive
– Procurement and storage costs are too costly• Requires a large physical stock
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APCA
Argument Analysis
• Assertions not always true– Commercials have no incentive to hold stocks– Supply disruptions can affect more than one
supplier in a given year– One has to compare costs of storage against a
no-reserve alternative– Presence of reserve stocks calms market
behavior• Overriding Issue: Countries view food as
a national security issue
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APCA
Reserve Objectives• Prevent crises:
• Consumer price and availability crises• Producer crises (livestock producers when prices
are “high;” followed by extraordinary low crop prices for crop farmers)
• The objective is NOT to fix prices• But to work with the market to ameliorate
impacts of extreme price fluctuations• Food availability/food prices• Severe economic disruptions • Environmental damages
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APCA
Hypothetical Price Band for Corn
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APCA
A Market Directed Inventory System
(MDIS)
National Farmers UnionFebruary 29, 2012
Daryll E. Ray and Harwood D. SchafferAgricultural Policy Analysis Center
University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture
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APCA
Policy Description
Objectives – Bulk of revenue from market receipts– Reduce government payments while
maintaining farm income– Reduce price volatility
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APCA
Policy Description
MDIS Specifications for 1998-2010 Study Period
– Initial corn loan rate set at midpoint between variable and full cost of production
– Indexed with a prices paid by farmers index
– Other crop loan rates set to historic ratios with corn
– Release price is set at 160% of loan rate
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APCA
Policy Description
MDIS Specifications for 1998-2010 Study Period
– MDIS maximums• Corn – 3 billion bushels• Wheat – 800 million bushels• Soybeans – 400 million bushels
– Farmer storage payment rate 40¢/bu./yr– Set-aside available if needed– Eliminate Direct Payments, LDPs, & CCPs
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APCA
8 Crops - Government Payments
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Historic Baseline$152 Billion
(Total 1998-2010)MDIS
$56 Billion
$ Billion
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APCA
8 Crops – Government PaymentsAverage Per Year Over Each Period
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
1998-2005 2006-2010 1998-2010
Historic Baseline
MDIS
$ Billion
$14.8
$4.8
$6.8
$3.6
$11.7
$4.3
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APCA
Corn Prices
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Historic Baseline
MDIS
Release Price
Loan Rate
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APCA
Corn PricesAverage Per Year Over Each Period
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
1998-2005 2006-2010 1998-2010
Historic Baseline
MDIS
$2.05
$2.68
$4.02$3.71
$2.81$3.07
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APCA
Corn Exports - Quantity
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Historic Baseline
MDIS
Million Bu.
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APCA
Corn Exports - Value
Historic Baseline
MDIS
$ Billion
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APCA
Corn Value of ExportsAverage Per Year Over Each Period
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
$9
1998-2005 2006-2010 1998-2010
Historic Baseline
MDIS
$ Billion
$3.9
$4.8
$8.3$7.7
$5.6 $5.9
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APCA
MDIS Stocks
Corn
Wheat
Million Bu.
Soybeans
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APCA
Corn – Value of Production plus Government Payments
Average Per Year Over Each Period
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
1998-2005 2006-2010 1998-2010
Historic Baseline
MDIS
$ Billion
$26.4$28.2
$51.5$46.5
$36.1 $35.2
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APCA
Realized Net Farm IncomeAverage Per Year Over Each Period
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
1998-2005 2006-2010 1998-2010
Historic Baseline MDIS
$ Billion
$49.8 $50.8$55.8
$51.5 $52.1 $51.1
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APCA
Summary of Findings
Over the Study Period, 1998-2010, with MDIS in Place:
– Government payments 60% lower– Increased reliance on market receipts – Value of exports $4.9 billion higher– Lower price volatility benefitting:
• Consumers• Crop farmers• Livestock producers and industrial users
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APCA
Agricultural Policy Analysis Center The University of Tennessee 310 Morgan Hall 2621 Morgan Circle Knoxville, TN 37996-4519
www.agpolicy.org
Thank You
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APCA
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Weekly Policy Column
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APCA
Corn Feed FSI Exp
19601963
19661969
19721975
19781981
19841987
19901993
19961999
20022005
20082011
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
1,000 Bu.
Food, Seed, Industrial
Feed
Exports