apa climate change planning presentation

1

Planning for Climate Change

Brad Chase

[email protected]

September 24, 2009

3

Cleveland Carbon Fund

5

Climate Change Planning

6

Per capita CO2 emissions (2003, tons - excludes land use change)

Qatar –

46.1 tons per person

Texas –32.5

United Arab Em

irates –25.0

Ohio –

24.1

Australia –17.2

California –11.1

Japan –10.0

United Kingdom

–9.2

European Union –

8.8China –

3.4

United States –

19.9

Brazil –1.8

India –1.1

American H

omeless 8.5 *

Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) Version 5.0. (Washington DC: World Resources Institute, 2008)*MIT Tech Talk. Volume 52, Number 23, Wednesday April 16, 2008.

Perspective

What is your footprint?

7

Average Ohioan in 2003

24.1 tons

30% per capita

reduction by 2030

80%

reduction

by 2050

Roundtrip to

Hong Kong

Roundtrip to

Los Angeles

15,000 miles in a

Hummer

15,000 miles

in a Civic

15,000 miles

in a Prius

Roundtrip to

London

Carbon “budget”

8

Northeast Ohio Footprint

9

Abatement cost <$50/ton

U.S. mid-range abatement curve from McKinsey – 2030

Source: McKinsey analysis

0

0 1.0 1.2 1.4

90

1.8 2.00.2 2.2 2.4

30

2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2

60

-120

-220

-30

-60

1.6

-90

Cost

Real 2005 dollars per ton CO2e

0.4 0.6 0.8

-230

Residential electronics

Commercial electronics

Residential buildings –Lighting

Commercial buildings –

LED lighting

Fuel economy packages – Cars

Commercial buildings –CFL lighting

Cellulosic

biofuels

Industry –Combined heat and power

Existing power plant conversion efficiency improvements

Conservation tillage

Fuel economy packages – Light trucks

Commercial buildings –Combined heat and power

Coal mining –Methane mgmt

Commercial buildings –Control systems

Distributed

solar PV

Residential buildings –Shell retrofits

Nuclear new-build

Natural gas and petroleum systems management

Active forest management

Afforestation of pastureland

Reforestation

Winter cover crops

Onshore wind – Medium penetration

Coal power plants – CCS new builds with EOR

Biomass power –Cofiring

Onshore wind –

High penetration

Industry –CCS new builds on carbon-intensive processes

Coal power plants – CCS new builds

Coal power plants –CCS rebuilds

Coal-to-gas shift – dispatch of existing plants

Car hybridi-zation

Commercial buildings –HVAC equipment efficiency

Solar CSP

Residential buildings –HVAC equipment efficiency

Industrial process improve-ments

Residential water heaters

Manufacturing –HFCs mgmt

Residential buildings –New shell improvements

Coal power plants–CCS rebuilds with EOR

Potential

Gigatons/year

Commercial buildings –New shell improvements

Afforestation of cropland

Onshore wind –

Low penetration

10

Ohio Progress?

11

Building Sector Transition

12

Building SectorHow do we accomplish reductions?

-6,072,34050%-8,725,46150%Total 2030 CO2 Reductions

872,546

3,490,184

1,745,092

2,617,638

Tons CO2

Reduced

5%

10%

20%

15%

Potential CO2

Reductions

2030 Commercial2030 Residential

606,3345%Implement district-wide solutions and efficient land use planning

4

3

2

1

1,221,66815%Educate and change occupant energy behaviors

2,425,33610%Achieve aggressive energy reductions in new buildings

1,819,00220%Retrofit and renovate existing building stock

Tons CO2

Reduced

Potential CO2

Reductions

Building Strategies

13

1. Retrofit and Renovate: Energy Efficient Products

Buildings Scenarios

1.1.1 Refrigerators 1.1.1 Air Conditioners1.1.1 Space Heating1.1.3 Water Heating1.1.5 Lighting

2. New Construction: Agg

42% Natural Gas/Other

7,329,387 tons

58% Electricity

10,121,535 tons

• Develop strategies for reducing

electricity use and natural gas use in residential sector17,450,922 tons CO2e

• Electricity emissions reduced

50% by 2030, to 5,060,767 tons

• Energy Plan plays integral role in

electricity reductions

• Natural gas emissions reduced

50% by 2030, to 3,664,694 tons

3. Educate and Change Oc4. District Wi

14


Buildings Scenario 1.1

1.1.1 Air Conditioners1.1.1 Space Heating1.1.3 Water Heating1.1.5 Lighting

Residential: 2001 Electricity Consumption

Device % CO2 Tons/yr

Refrigerator 13.7% 1,386,624

Air-Conditioning 16.0% 1,619,415Space Heating 10.1% 1,022,256

Water Heating 9.1% 921,042

Lighting 8.8% 890,678TVs 2.9% 293,519Furnace Fans 3.3% 334,004

Freezers 3.5% 354,247

Clothes Dryers 5.8% 587,038Other 26.7% 2,702,399

99.9% 10,111,222

2. New Construction: Agg3. Educate 4.

1.1.1 Refrigerators

15

• Eliminating 200,000 second refrigerators in 7 county region would result

in 1.87% (189,320 tons) reduction in residential CO2 emissions.

• Replacing 300,000 refrigerators older than 2001 would result in a 1.97%

(198,787 tons) reduction in CO2 emissions.

• Together, these two actions would eliminate almost 400,000 tons or 4% of the overall residential carbon footprint in Northeast Ohio.


1.1.1 Air Conditioners1.1.1 Space Heating1.1.3 Water Heating1.1.5 Lighting

2. New Construction: Agg3. Educate 4. 1. Retrofit and Renovate: Energy Efficient Products

1.1.1 Refrigerators

16

1. Retrofit and Renovate: Building Improvements


1.2.1 Improve Existing Building Stock 1.2.2 Improvement Incentives 1.2.3

Housing UnitsYear Built TOTAL

Built 3/2000 - 2004 50,295

Built 1995 to 3/2000 66,874Built 1990 to 1994 55,680

Built 1980 to 1989 88,687

Built 1970 to 1979 164,769Built 1960 to 1969 183,805

Built 1950 to 1959 229,345

Built 1940 to 1949 131,718Built 1939 or earlier 281,456

TOTAL 1,252,629

80% or 990,000 homes

in 7 county region are

30 + years old.

2. New Construction: Agg3. Educate 4.

Housing Units by County and Year Built

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Built

3/2000

- 2004

Built

1995 to

3/2000

Built

1990 to

1994

Built

1980 to

1989

Built

1970 to

1979

Built

1960 to

1969

Built

1950 to

1959

Built

1940 to

1949

Built

1939 or

earlier

Ho

usin

g U

nit

s

Cuyahoga Geauga

Lake Lorain

Medina Portage

Summit

17



Low Growth Scenario: Meet Architecture 2030 Targets - New Homes by Energy Reduction and Year

0% 10% 15% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Tons Reduced/yr Cumulative

2010 0 0 0 0 7,981 177 177 532 0 0 0 0 40,027 40,027

2011 0 0 0 0 6,208 887 887 266 177 177 177 89 46,452 86,479

2012 0 0 0 0 5,321 1,153 887 887 177 177 177 89 49,417 135,896

2013 0 0 0 0 3,547 887 1,330 1,774 887 177 177 89 57,941 193,837

2014 0 0 0 0 1,774 887 1,330 3,991 443 177 177 89 64,736 258,573

2015 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7,094 1,419 177 177 89,691 348,264

2016 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6,740 1,774 177 177 90,185 438,449

2017 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5,764 2,217 443 443 92,656 531,106

2018 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3,547 4,434 443 443 95,745 626,850

2019 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,774 5,853 621 621 98,957 725,807

2020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7,538 709 621 101,551 827,358

2021 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7,094 887 887 102,540 929,898

2022 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5,321 1,774 1,774 106,246 1,036,144

2023 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,217 4,434 2,217 111,187 1,147,331

2024 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,330 5,321 2,217 112,423 1,259,754

2025 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6,651 2,217 114,276 1,374,030

2026 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6,208 2,660 114,894 1,488,924

2027 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4,434 4,434 117,365 1,606,288

2028 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4,434 4,434 117,365 1,723,653

2029 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4,434 4,434 117,365 1,841,018

2030 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8,868 123,542 1,964,559

Totals 0 0 0 0 24,830 3,991 4,611 7,449 26,604 39,906 41,857 36,980 1,964,559

11%

Energy Star Builders Challenge

Architecture 2030 (2010 Goal)

Architecture 2030 (2030 Goal)

2. New Construction: Aggressive Energy Reductions

• 10-15% reduction in

emissions possible

by 2030, depending

on region’s new

construction rate

• In low growth

scenario, new home

construction which

meets national

challenges would

result in 11%

reduction in CO2

emissions from

residential sector by

2030.

3. Educate and

2.1.2 LEED 2.1.1 Meet National Energy Challenges 2.1.3 Energy Star 2.1.4

18




• 10-15% reduction in

emissions possible

by 2030, 25%-35%

reduction by 2050

• New home

construction alone

will not be enough

• Retrofits and

renewable energy will

have to fill gap if

region will meet 50%

and 90% reduction

targets

3. Educate and

2.1.2 LEED 2.1.1 Meet National Energy Challenges 2.1.3 Energy Star 2.1.4

19



2. New Construction: Aggressive Energy Reductions 3. Educate and

2.1.1 Meet National Energy Challenges 2.1.3 Energy Star 2.1.4 HERS2.1.2 LEED

2008 Energy Star Homes by State

20



2. New Construction: Aggressive Energy Reductions 3. Educate and

2.1.1 Meet National Energy Challenges 2.1.3 Energy Star 2.1.4 HERS2.1.2 LEED

Approved by the RESNET Board of Directors. To be implemented as of July 1, 2006.

Status

HERS Index of 85 in climate zones 1–5HERS Index of 80 in climate zones 6–8

ENERGY STAR Requirement

Heating, cooling, water heating, lighting, appliances, and onsite power generation*

Energy Use Considered

Each 1% increase in energy efficiency corresponds to a 1-point decrease in HERS Index

Scale

2006 International Energy Conservation Code (IECC)

Reference Home Basis

Reference Home is assigned a HERS Index of 100, while a net zero energy home is assigned a HERS Index of 0

Reference Home Score

HERS Index

Residential Energy Services Network (RESNET)

21




• Population 1.4 million and

rising

• Grid development pattern

3. Educate and

4.1.2 LEED 4.1 Zoning and Planning to Support Grid Development 4.2 Energy Star4.3

4. Efficient Land Use Planning

Developed Land in Cuyahoga County (1948)

22




• Population 1.4 million and

declining

• Disconnected development

pattern

3. Educate and



Developed Land in Cuyahoga County (2002)

23




• “Green” suburban

home uses more

energy on average

than non-green urban

home

• Significantly less

transportation energy

required for urban

homes on average

3. Educate and



24

Transportation Sector Transition

25

Transportation SectorHow do we accomplish reductions?

-16,142,64690%-8,968,13750%Total CO2 Reductions

896,814

896,814

5,380,882

1,793,627

Tons CO2

Reduced

5%

10%

50%

25%

Potential CO2

Reductions

20502030

896,8145%Align costs of externalities with end users

4

3

2

1

1,793,6275%Reduce CO2 intensity of fuel sources

8,968,13730%Increase efficiency of vehicles

4,484,06810%Reduce number of vehicles and need to travel

Tons CO2

Reduced

Potential CO2

Reductions

Transportation Strategies

26

Transportation Scenario 1.2

2. Increase Efficiency3. Reduce CO2 in Fu

1.1 Land Use

4. Extern1. Reduce Number of Vehicles and Need to Travel

• NOACA and AMATS

MPOs have adopted

climate change language

in LRTPs

• ODOT 21st Century

Priorities Task Force

• Plans are largely done,

challenge exists to set,

track and implement

meaningful metrics (VMT

reduction, CO2

reduction, mode splits)

• Complete Streets

policies one “easy”

solution to start with

1.2 Align Long Range Transportation Plans 1.3 Decrease 1.4

27



1.1 Land Use


1.2 Align Long Range Transportation Plans 1.3 Decrease 1.4

Source: NOACA

28



1.1 Land Use 1.4


U.S. Population and Vehicle Miles Traveled, 1982-2006

Source: Bailey, et.al, “The Broader Connection between Public Transportation, Energy Conservation and Greenhouse Gas Reduction,” February 2008, www.apta.com/research/info/online/documents/land_use.pdf

• VMT rate of growth is

slowing, and declined

in 2008

• Many regional and

state plans use VMT

growth rate of 1 to 2%

per year in planning

vs. a flat or declining

VMT

1.2 Align Long Range1.3 Decrease Per Capita VMT by 30%

29



1.1 Land Use 1.4



2005 MPG Emissions Factors

Vehicle Mix % # vehicles Avg.

MPG

ANNUAL VMT

Total

Gasonline

Consumption

(Gallons)

Gasoline CO2

Emissions Factor

(lbs/CO2 per Gal)

Lbs/CO2

Short Tons

CO2

(1=2000lbs)Full Size Auto 7.5% 201,726 17 2,200,292,362 129,428,962 20.71 2,680,344,384 1,340,172

Mid Size Auto 17.0% 457,246 20 4,987,329,354 249,366,468 20.71 5,164,130,180 2,582,065

Sub Compact/Compact 27.1% 728,904 25 7,950,389,735 318,015,589 20.71 6,585,784,841 3,292,892Hybrid cars 0.5% 13,448 40 146,686,157 3,667,154 20.71 75,943,091 37,972

Biodiesel cars 0.5% 13,448 40 146,686,157 3,667,154 20.71 75,943,091 37,972

Plug-in hybrid 0.5% 13,448 52 146,686,157 2,820,888 20.71 58,417,762 29,209Electric cars 0.0% 0 60 0 0 20.71 0 0

Light-duty trucks / SUV 46.5% 1,250,702 14 13,641,812,645 974,415,189 20.71 20,179,164,148 10,089,582Motorcycle (2WV) 0.4% 10,759 25 117,348,926 4,693,957 20.71 97,211,850 48,606

TOTAL 100.0% 2,689,682 29,337,231,495 1,686,075,361 20.71 34,916,939,347 17,458,470

UtlizationUnits


Vehicle Mix % # vehiclesAvg.

MPG

ANNUAL VMT

Total

Gasonline

Consumption

(Gallons)

Gasoline CO2

Emissions Factor

(lbs/CO2 per Gal)

Lbs/CO2

Short Tons

CO2


Mid Size Auto 17.0% 457,246 20 4,239,229,951 211,961,498 20.71 4,389,510,653 2,194,755


Biodiesel cars 0.5% 13,448 40 124,683,234 3,117,081 20.71 64,551,627 32,276



TOTAL 100.0% 2,689,682 24,936,646,771 1,433,164,057 20.71 29,679,398,445 14,839,699

15.00%

Units Utlization

30



1.1 Land Use 1.4



31

1.5



1.1 Land Use


• Transit is more

efficient mode in most

situations

• Won’t work for

everyone, but small

percentage increases

in ridership and trip

share have significant

impacts on CO2

emissions, congestion

1.2 Align Long Range1.3 Decrease Per Capita VMT by 30%1.4 Improve Access, Availability and Efficiency of Public Transit

32



1.1 Land Use


• Single Occupancy

Vehicle travel is

increasing

• Public transit and

carpooling %

decreasing

1.2 Align Long Range1.3 Decrease Per Capita VMT by 30%1.4 1.5 1.6 Increase Mode Shift to Bikes, Walking, Transit

33

1. Reduce Number of Vehicles and Need to Travel


2.1 National Efficiency Standards

2. Increase Efficiency of Remaining Vehicles 3. Reduce CO2 Inten

2.2 Smaller Vehicles 2.3 Hybrids



MPG

ANNUAL VMT

Total

Gasonline

Consumption

(Gallons)

Gasoline CO2

Emissions Factor

(lbs/CO2 per Gal)

Lbs/CO2

Short Tons

CO2


Mid Size Auto 17.0% 457,246 20 4,987,329,354 249,366,468 20.71 5,164,130,180 2,582,065


Biodiesel cars 0.5% 13,448 40 146,686,157 3,667,154 20.71 75,943,091 37,972



TOTAL 100.0% 2,689,682 29,337,231,495 1,686,075,361 20.71 34,916,939,347 17,458,470

UtlizationUnits



MPG

ANNUAL VMT

Total

Gasonline

Consumption

(Gallons)

Gasoline CO2

Emissions Factor

(lbs/CO2 per Gal)

Lbs/CO2

Short Tons

CO2

(1=2000lbs)Full Size Auto 7.5% 201,726 25 2,200,292,362 88,011,694 20.71 1,822,634,181 911,317

Mid Size Auto 17.0% 457,246 28 4,987,329,354 178,118,906 20.71 3,688,664,414 1,844,332


Biodiesel cars 0.5% 13,448 45 146,686,157 3,259,692 20.71 67,504,970 33,752



TOTAL 100.0% 2,689,682 29,337,231,495 1,100,441,111 20.71 22,789,039,658 11,394,520

34.73%

UtlizationUnits

apa climate change planning presentation

Technology