anz commodity daily 804 270313

7/29/2019 ANZ Commodity Daily 804 270313

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ANZ RESEARCH

COMMODITY DAILYContacts: Mark Pervan +613 8655 9243 | [email protected] Victor Thianpiriya +65 6681 8869 | [email protected] Rampono +613 8655 9258 | [email protected] Hayley Arendtsz +613 8655 0447 | [email protected]

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS COMMODITY WRAP March 27, 2013

Crude oil rallies on strong US data Gold market quiet in tight trading range Copper prices lifted by buoyant US equity markets Iron ore prices firmed on better China demand outlook

KEY THEMES

y Overnight themes Markets were more positive towardsrisk assets overnight, with US equities and global oil prices

ending the session higher. Although, markets are still

grappling with the slowing European growth momentum. US

domestic drivers of growth appear solid, with housing data

overnight largely in line with expectations and durable goods

orders slightly better than expectations as the recovery

continues. However, the Conference Board measure of

consumer confidence declined sharply in March, consistent

with the fall in the preliminary University of Michigan series

received last week. Confidence appears to have been hit by

concerns about government spending cuts and possibly byincome tax hikes earlier in the year. The Richmond Fed

manufacturing survey reinforced the message from the other

regional Fed surveys for March that business conditions have

stabilised around trend with expectations modestly

favourable. This suggests that the ISM manufacturing index,

which is expected to have improved a little in March, should

hold around current levels over the next few months.

OVERNIGHT RANKED PRICE MOVES (%)

(2.4)

(2.2)

(1.1)

(1.1)

(0.7)

(0.4)

(0.3)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.2)

0.0

0.1

0.8

0.8

1.5

(3.0) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0

Lead

Zinc

Nickel

Aluminium

P latinum

Baltic F reight

Gold

Tin

Silver

Coal (NEWC)

USD (DXY)

Copper

S&P 500

Iron ore

WTI Oil

Note: Coal (NEWC) refers to front month futures

Sources: Bloomberg, ANZ Commodity Strategy

y Crude oil benchmarks higher. May 13 Brent crude ralliedovernight to settle more than USD1.0/bbl higher, following a

surge in WTI. The US benchmark was trading in a choppy

fashion before a late session rally took the contract to a 5-

week high above USD96.0/bbl. The spread between the two

crudes moved to around USD13.0/bbl, an 8-month low. In

other news, the profitability of China's oil refiners is set to

improve as a new fuel scheme starts on Wednesday. The new

scheme should lead to more market-driven prices, allowing

prices to be changed every 10 working days compared to the

previous window of 22 days and should allow more flexible

pricing by refiners.

y Gold market quiet after recent volatility. Gold traded in atight range overnight, hovering between USD1,595/oz and

USD1,600/oz, with current trading near the topside. Gold

prices were pressured overnight amid a rebound in equity

markets, sparked by better than expected US durable good

orders data and US home sales data that met expectations.

Gold remains in the broad USD1,590/oz - USD1,615/oz range,

with dips being well supported by physical interest. Gold

holdings in the SPDR trust stayed flat for the fourth straight

day at 1,221.26 metric tonnes.

y Copper prices improved slightly, lifted by buoyant USequity markets. Although market participants were still

concerned over growth momentum in Europe. Chinas

domestic copper demand appears to be improving, with

copper cable orders and demand for copper tubes in air

conditioners rising. On the flipside, aluminium prices hit 4-

month lows, despite a recovery in oil markets. Market reports

suggest a jump in Chinas aluminium production and excess

supplies has weighed on prices. But any indications of

production cuts in 2013/14 from China could prevent prices

from falling too far. Already, Indias state-owned National

Aluminium Co (NALCO) expects its aluminium output to

decline almost 3% to 402k tonnes this fiscal year due toweaker global markets and higher input costs. However,

NALCO still expects to produce more alumina (6.45mt),

despite a similar oversupply situation in alumina markets.

y Iron ore firmed to USD137/t. We think the bearishsentiment in the iron ore market was overdone. It was

triggered by the fresh round of Chinese property investment

curbs and the expectation of rising supply in the second half

of the year, but we dont think China property demand is

about to fall sharply and increased supply was already

known. We think prices could rebound USD5-10/tonne in the

short term as the seasonal strong construction season

approaches in the second quarter. In contrast, thermal coal

prices could come under additional pressure given Colombia

has returned to the seaborne market, demand from China

remains lacklustre, and a couple of public holidays on

Wednesday and Friday in India will likely lighten volumes.


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COMMODITY DATA

PRICE DATA

Close 1 Day 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mth Close 1 Day 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mth

LME BASE METALS (USD/t) LME BASE METALS (kt)

Aluminium 1875 (1.1) (1.0) (5.2) (8.4) Aluminium 5,239 0.3 0.3 1.6 (0.0)

Copper 7593 0.1 1.3 (3.1) (2.8) Copper 566 0.2 3.5 29.2 81.3

Nickel 16709 (1.1) 1.5 0.8 (3.3) Nickel 162 0.3 (0.1) 3.6 16.8

Zinc 1873 (2.2) (1.0) (10.4) (8.7) Zinc 1,185 (0.4) (1.5) 0.7 (3.5)

Lead 2105 (2.4) (1.9) (8.1) (7.9) Lead 266 (0.4) (3.1) (7.7) (19.5)

Tin 23094 (0.2) 1.3 (0.7) (0.5) Tin 14 (0.0) 0.2 2.9 13.8

PRECIOUS METALS (USD/oz) Close 1 Day 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mth

Gold 1,601 (0.3) (0.8) (0.8) (3.4)

Gold (A$/oz) 1,529 (0.4) (1.8) (3.1) (4.1) S&P 500 1,564 0.8 1.0 4.5 9.3

Silver 29 (0.2) (0.4) (2.2) (4.1) VIX Volatility Index 13 (7.1) (11.3) (24.3) (28.4)

Platinum 1,575 (0.7) 1.1 (2.9) 2.3 CRB Index 297 0.7 1.2 1.2 0.9

Palladium 764 0.8 3.6 2.3 12.4 LME Metals Index 3,284 (0.4) 0.4 (3.7) (4.5)

ENERGY (USD/bbl) Close 1 Day 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mth

WTI Oil* 96.24 1.5 4.4 3.9 8.5

Brent Oil* 109.56 1.3 2.0 (2.8) 0.5 Baltic Freight Rate 931 (0.4) 2.1 25.6 33.0

Sing Gasoil 0.5% 121 (0.0) (1.6) (7.1) (3.3) Baltic Capesize 1,275 (0.7) (1.2) (1.2) 3.8

Sing Fuel Oil 180cst(US$/t) 628 (0.4) (2.0) (1.8) 2.4 Baltic Panamax 1,204 (0.5) 1.7 28.2 69.6

OTHER(USD/t) Baltic Handysize 545 0.4 4.4 30.1 22.2

China HR Coil (RmB/t) 3,925 (0.1) 0.1 (3.8) (0.5) Close 1 Day 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mth

Richards Bay Coal 82 (0.6) (1.7) (4.2) (9.2)

Newcastle Coal* 91.8 (0.2) 0.0 (1.1) (3.0) DXY - USD Index 82.9 0.0 (0.1) 1.2 4.1

Australia Coking Coal** 161 (3.1) (5.5) 0.9 AUD/USD - Aussie 1.047 0.2 1.1 2.4 0.7

Iron Ore Spot 137.1 0.8 2.0 (9.7) 1.3 NZD/USD - Kiwi 0.837 0.3 1.7 1.4 1.8

% ChangeCurrencies

% ChangeKey Indices

% ChangeFreight

Commodities Inventories% Change % Change

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

M ar M ay J ul Sep Nov J an

NEWCASTLE COALUSD/t

1,500

1,550

1,6001,650

1,700

1,750

1,800


GOLDUSD/oz

70

80

90

100

110


WTI OILUSD/bbl

0.97

0.99

1.01

1.03

1.05

1.07

M ar M ay J ul Sep No v J an M ar

AUDUSD

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

19,000


NICKELUSD/t

7,000

7,500

8,000

8,500

9,000


COPPERUSD/t

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

Mar May J ul Sep Nov J an

ALUMINIUMUSD/t

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200


ZINCUSD/t

25.0

27.0

29.0

31.0

33.0

35.0


SILVERUSD/oz

Notes: *Front-month futures **Weekly prices

Sources: Bloomberg, McCloskey, ANZ Commodity Strategy


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ANZ FORECASTS

ANZ Forecast Table1

COMMODITY Unit Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15

BASE METALS

Aluminium USD/lb 0.91 0.93 0.96 1.00 1.03 1.04 1.04 1.03 1.00 0.99

Copper USD/lb 3.59 3.67 3.82 3.95 4.02 4.07 4.07 3.97 3.85 3.70

Nickel USD/lb 7.70 7.91 8.25 8.65 9.15 9.35 9.25 9.15 9.05 9.00

Zinc USD/lb 0.88 0.94 0.98 1.00 1.03 1.05 1.07 1.09 1.11 1.12

Lead USD/lb 1.00 1.07 1.08 1.06 1.06 1.07 1.08 1.10 1.11 1.12

Tin USD/lb 9.80 10.30 10.05 10.20 10.40 10.35 10.10 9.75 9.35 9.10

PRECIOUS METALS

Gold USD/oz 1,718 1,638 1,625 1,690 1,755 1,785 1,780 1,760 1,743 1,728

Platinum USD/oz 1,598 1,607 1,718 1,783 1,833 1,855 1,845 1,835 1,820 1,795

Palladium USD/oz 654 722 750 770 790 810 823 823 818 808

Silver USD/oz 32.6 29.9 29.9 31.0 32.3 33.4 34.4 34.7 34.3 33.5

ENERGY

WTI NYMEX USD/bbl 88.2 94.9 99.0 100.5 101.5 102.5 103.5 103.0 101.0 98.3

Dated Brent USD/bbl 110.5 114.5 118.5 119.5 119.0 118.5 117.5 116.0 112.5 108.0

Uranium USD/lb 43.4 45.0 46.5 49.5 52.0 54.5 57.0 59.0 61.5 64.0

BULKS

Iron ore Spot (CIF China, fines) USD/t 121.0 140.5 138.0 137.5 132.5 130.0 131.0 130.0 126.5 125.0

Iron ore Contract (FOB Aust, fines) USD/t 103.7 138.4 129.7 130.5 124.8 121.2 121.5 119.6 117.3 115.1

Coking coal - Premium hard USD/t 170.0 165.0 175.0 185.0 190.0 195.0 195.0 195.0 190.0 190.0

Coking coal - Hard USD/t 160.0 155.0 160.0 170.0 175.0 175.0 175.0 175.0 170.0 170.0

Coking coal - Semi-soft USD/t 115.0 110.0 120.0 135.0 140.0 155.0 155.0 155.0 150.0 150.0

Newc Thermal Coal (Spot) USD/t 83.8 92.4 96.5 99.5 102.5 104.5 106.0 108.0 109.5 110.0

Newc Thermal Coal (JPY Contract) USD/t 115.0 115.0 98.0 98.0 98.0 98.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0

OTHER METALS

Alumina USD/t 250 257 264 276 284 288 288 284 277 273

Molybdenum USD/lb 11.2 11.7 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.4 13.6 13.9 14.0 14.1

Cobalt USD/lb 12.5 12.1 13.1 13.7 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.0 15.1 15.2

EXCHANGE RATES

AUD/USD USD 1.040 1.047 1.050 1.050 1.050 1.036 1.015 0.995 0.975 0.956

NZD/USD USD 0.823 0.842 0.840 0.840 0.840 0.830 0.816 0.801 0.787 0.774

EUR/USD USD 1.305 1.355 1.360 1.390 1.420 1.443 1.463 1.490 1.520 1.237

USD/JPY 82.983 89.484 84.667 82.667 82.000 82.000 82.000 82.000 82.000 80.667

USD/CAD CAD 0.996 0.994 0.990 0.990 0.990 1.003 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.017

USD/CNY Yuan 6.200 6.150 6.100 6.167 6.117 6.067 6.017 5.967 5.917 5.867

Note 1: Average prices Note 2: Thermal coal prices are for JPY year starting April 1 Note 3: Historical data are actuals

Sources: Bloomberg, ANZ Commodity Strategy, ANZ FX Strategy


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