anton rossouw - strategic approaches and tools for managing complex projects
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Strategies, Models and Tools for managing complex projects and solving wicked problems where there is no clear and simple answersTRANSCRIPT
Strategic Approaches and Tools for Managing Complex Projects
Anton Rossouw Project Director (CPPD)
Overview Why is this important ? What is Complexity and Complexity Theory ? What is a complex project ? Which approaches, models and tools are available ? What may this mean for project management practice ? Where is all this leading ?
“I think the next century (21st) will be the century of complexity” Stephen Hawking (1942-!)
“I wouldn't give a nickel for the simplicity on this side of complexity, but I would give my life for the simplicity on the other side of complexity.” Albert Einstein (1879-1955)
“For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.” H.L. Mencken (1880-1956)
Three wise men…
“Project management is the art of creating the illusion that any outcome is the
result of a series of predetermined, deliberate acts when, in fact, it was
dumb luck”
Source: Kerzner, H., (2009), Project Management – A systems approach to Planning, Scheduling and Controlling, 10th edition, John Wiley & Sons.
Understanding project failure
Low
High
Inve
stm
ent
/ Va
lue
($)
Mid
Roll-Out 1
Roll-Out 2
Projects fail here !
Projects are constructed to fail
or succeed here !
Projects succeed here !
Time
Collapse of Value
Space of Opportunity
(and high Uncertainty)
“In the past few years, ever since uncertainty became our insistent twenty-first-century companion, leadership strategies have taken a great leap backward to the familiar territory of command and control”Source: Wheatley, M.J., (2005), Finding our Way – Leadership for an Uncertain, Berrett-Koehler, San Francisco.
Uncertainty in the driving seat! Faced with unknowns and change
Trying to come to terms and respond to a myriad of accelerating and connected social, technological, ethical, economic, and ecological changes, pressures and tipping points on both a global scale and local scales.
The need to adapt, flourish and grow sustainably as opposed to respond inappropriately, get it wrong, collapse and go extinct.
Yes we can ….
The Aim
“Explore, make sense of, and understand complex situations and contexts so that we can act appropriately and create the conditions that will lead us to sustainable and progressive futures”
Seeing Complexity
Source: Sole, R., Goodwin, B., (2000) Signs of Life – How complexity pervades Biology, Basic Books, New York.
In Control Un-Control Out of Control
Stability Evolution/Revolution Catastrophe
Constrictive Principled Conflicted
Regimented Dynamic Chaotic
Ukiyo-e woodblock print - “The Great Wave” by Hokusai from his subscription series, “Thirty-Six Views of Mt. Fuji,” completed between 1826 and 1833.
Source: Brian Castellani - Complexity Science Map : http://www.art-sciencefactory.com/complexity-map_feb09.html
Location of the knowledge
Source: Snowden, D. and Stanbridge, P. (2004) The Landscape of Management: Creating the context for understanding social complexity, Emergence, Vol 6 1-2, pp. 140-148
Mechanical
Organic
Everything is not Complex
Source: Cilliers, P. (1998) Complexity and postmodernism: Understanding complex systems, London and New York, Routledge
Complicated System Interrelated parts. Linear behaviour, Predictable. Equal to the sum of its parts.
Complex System Connected elements. Non-Linear responses, unpredictable behaviour. Positive and Negative feedback, spontaneous emergence. Cannot be described by analysing the components alone.
Wicked Problems
www.deathandtaxes.com
The war in Afghanistan
US Federal Spending
“When we understand that slide, we’ll have won the war,” General McChrystal
“Tricare, a health care plan for 2.2 million military retirees, is separate from the VA. The premium is $470 a year, and there’s no co-pay, and the cost is $53 billion a year” Alan Simpson Co-chair deficit reduction commission
Complexity Theory A shift away from the predictability of classical science. A fundamental world-view shift, new integrated
multidisciplinary science, still emerging, with various origins, interpretations and definitions.
Time driven dynamical systems; that are “living”, learning, evolving and spontaneously self-organising.
Open to environmental interaction, nonlinear behaviors, unpredictable emergent phenomena.
The behavior of agents in Complex Adaptive Systems. Emergence at the “edge of chaos”.
Complexity in actionRobot powered by Physarum slime mould. Sources (17 June 2009) : http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2006/feb/15/uknews.robots
Arab Spring Tipping Point
Flocking behaviour – 3D Boids: Source (17 June 2009) http://www.navgen.com/3d_boids/index.html
Jazz ImprovisationEvolution of Manchester UK
http://www.e-ir.info Publication “The Arab Spring of Discontent”
“If a revolution destroys a government, but the systematic patterns of thought that produced that government are left intact, then those patterns will repeat themselves… There’s so much talk about the system. And so little understanding.”Robert Pirzig, Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance.
Complex Adaptive System
Source (22 June 2009) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Complex_adaptive_system
What is a complex project ? Responding to a catastrophic event or impending crisis. Something small that may have large impacts. Something creative we have not tried before. Events forcing us to drastically change tack. Innovation required to stay ahead of the pack. A need to explore strategic alternatives. Development of high performance innovative teams. Opposing stakeholder forces and strong conflicts. Carries lots of uncertainty and dynamical oscillations.
Traditional view of the project
Complexity view of a project
AB
C
F
DE
L M
N
P
O
QR
Project 1
Organisation A
Shadow Network
Legitimate Network
XAgent
GHJ
IK
Organisation B
Environment / Landscape
ST
U
Project 2
Adapted from : Stacey, R.(1996) Complexity and creativity in organizations, San Francisco, Berrett-Koehler Publishers Inc.
Ralph Stacey’s Matrix
Source: Stacey, R.(1996) Strategic Management and Organizational Dynamics: The challenge of complexity, 1st Ed, Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, N.J. More from www.plexusinstitute.com (Brenda Zimmerman)
The Diamond ModelTechnology
Pace
NoveltyComplexity
Super High Tech
High Tech
Medium Tech
Low Tech
Regular
Fast / Competitive
Time Critical
Blitz
Derivative Platform Breakthrough
Array System Assembly
Automatic bag-handling system(Required Style)
Denver International Airport Construction
Project (Actual Style)
Source: Shenhar, J., Dvir, D., (2007) Re-inventing Project Management – The diamond approach to successful growth and innovation, Boston, Harvard Business School Press
Project Complexity Model
Highly Complex
Moderately Complex
Independent
Team Composition and Performance
Urgency / Flexibility
Problem / Solution Clarity IT Complexity
Requirements Volatility
Political SensitivityMultiple Stakeholders
Level of Organization /Commercial Change
Risks, External Constraints and Dependencies
Cost / Duration
Source: Hass, K., (2009) Managing Complex Projects – A New Model, Management Concepts, Vienna, VA.
Cynefin ModelComplex Complicated
Chaotic Simple
Source: Snowden, D.J. Boone, M., (2007) A Leader's Framework for Decision Making. Harvard Business Review, November 2007, pp. 69-76.
EmergentPractice
NovelPractice
BestPractice
SpecialistPractice
Probe-Sense-Respond Sense-Analyse-Respond
Sense-Categorise-RespondAct-Sense-Respond
Known- UnknownsUnknown - Unknowns
Unknowables Known - Knowns
Ord
er
Un-
Ord
er
Dis-Order
Connection and Control StrengthComplex Complicated
Chaotic Simple
Weak central, strong distributed
Strong central, strong distributed
Strong central, weak distributed
Weak central, weak distributed
Source: www.cognitive-edge.com
Sub domains and boundary transition
Warm and FuzzyDistractions
True Catastrophe
Constraints on system and agents appear
Agent interactions breaking down
Issue requiring expert intervention appear
High uncertain
risk of catastrophe
Obvious solutions and opportunities
to crises appear
Increasing predictability,
agent interactions stabilizing
Expert knowledge
breaks down, increasing
agent interactions
Tyranny of the Experts
Mind-Numbing Bureaucracy
Simple
Complex
Complicated
Chaotic
Knowledge diffused, system increasingly well understood
Source: www.cognitive-edge.com
Flow dynamicsComplex Complicated
Chaotic Simple
Collapse
Imposition
Conv
erge
nce
Divergence
JIT Transfer
Exploration
Standardisation
Improvem
ent
Swarming
Source: www.cognitive-edge.com
Cognitive-Edge tools Cynefin Contextualisation –Strategic planning Butterfly Stamping – Highlight differences Future Backwards – Clarify perspectives and lessons Anecdote Circles – Narrative understanding and collection Archetype Extraction – Pattern disruption and intervention Safe-Fail Probes – Find the best path, test coherence Ritual Dissent – Challenge entrenchment with diversity
Source: www.cognitive-edge.com (open source methods)
Agile Project Management
SCRUM tools Product Owner, Scrum Master, Diverse Team Poker Planning/Estimation User Stories Product Backlog Task Boards, Burn-down Charts Sprints and Daily Scrums Retrospectives
Serious play - Innovation Games
Sources: Gray, D., Brown S., Macanufo, J., (2010) Game Storming – a Playbook for Innovators, Rulebreakers and Changemakers,, O-Reilly Media, Sebastopol, CA. Hohmann, L., (2007), Innovation Games – Creating Breakthrough Products Through Collaborative Play, Addison-Wesley, Boston.
• Prune the Product Tree• Remember the Future• Spider Web• Product Box• Buy a Feature• Start Your Day• Show and Tell• Me and My Shadow• Give them a Hot Tub• The Apprentice• 20/20 Vision• Speed Boat
• RACI Matrix• SWOT Analysis• Synesthesia• Wizard of Oz• World Café• Ethos, Logos , Pathos• Prune the Future• Empathy Map• Forced Ranking• Post-Up• 3-12-3 Brainstorming• The Anti-Problem
AB
C
F
DE
L M
N
P
O
QR
Project 1
Organisation A
Shadow Network
Legitimate Network
XAgent
GHJ
IK
Organisation B
Environment / Landscape
ST
U
Project 2
3600 SWAT Teams
Radical co-location Multi-skilled Cross functional Pod of 7 + or – 2 never 8 Leadership Emergence Constraints and Freedoms Resources and Tools Self Organisation Artifacts/Products Patterns /Learning
Critical Chain Project Management
10% confidence
50% confidence95% confidence
Task Duration
Freq
uenc
y
Source: www.ensemblepartners.com.au
Strategy and approach The objective of complexity thinking is to make sense of
contexts and act adaptively to reach emergent simplicity. Convert initial chaotic and complex starting conditions through contextual
sense-making into progressively elaborated “simplified” strategies. Understand the project systemically at first, create appropriate methodology
that address components according to their profiles by applying models and tools to accelerate the velocity of understanding/simplification.
Remain vigilant by sensing for signals and patterns that may indicate approaching dynamical non-linear state changes that may require further systemic adaptation and asset/resource protection.
Delivery risk is lowest where understanding, certainty and simplicity is at its highest (but that’s no guarantee of anything).
Complex Adaptive methodology
Low
High
Inve
stm
ent
/ Va
lue
($)
Mid
Time
Phase 1
Phase 2
Phase 3
Phase 4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
Sources: www.management30.com and www.agilemanifesto.org
Resources for the curious…
http://www.plexusinstitute.com http://www.santafe.edu http://www.emergentpublications.com
http://www.chaosforum.com http://www.iq.harvard.edu/blog/netgov/complexity/
http://www.complexitydigest.com http://www.necsi.edu