22 MARKR'f NRWS Antiulcer market decline predicted

The antiulcer market in the US, and 4 major markets of Europe and Japan, will decrease by about 1.5% per annum, according to a lO-year forecast by the UK Pharma Strategy Group. This decline will be brought about by generic substitution, over-the-counter competition, government cost containment measures and a decline in the maintenance market as a result of reductions in peptic ulcer relapse rates, the report suggests.

The antiulcer market is currently worth SUS3 billion, including S2.1 billion for peptic ulcers and S881 million for reflux oesophagitis. The peptic ulcer market derives 50-80% of its revenue from H2-antagonist sales, whereas the reflux oesophagitis market is dominated by proton pump inhibitor sales; domestic market shares for proton pump inhibitors in European countries are up to 60%.

The report predicts that Hrantagonist sales will decrease by about 6% per annum and that prostaglandin sales will decrease slightly in the short-tenn and then stabilise. Proton pump inhibitors sales will increase by > 13% per annum until 1998, but will then decline rapidly over the following 5 years. Gastroprokinetic sales will increase on average by 4% per annum. - Media release

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