anticipating sea level rise response in puget sound alexander (sascha) petersen research update and...
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Anticipating Sea Level Rise Anticipating Sea Level Rise Response in Puget SoundResponse in Puget Sound
Alexander (Sascha) Petersen Alexander (Sascha) Petersen
Research Update and Discussion Research Update and Discussion CIG Seminar CIG Seminar
May 31, 2007 May 31, 2007
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Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline Focus of the StudyFocus of the Study Climate Change and Sea Level Climate Change and Sea Level
RiseRise Resilience FrameworkResilience Framework Mapping Inundation Scenarios Mapping Inundation Scenarios Floodplain MappingFloodplain Mapping Legal and Institutional StructureLegal and Institutional Structure Potential Response OptionsPotential Response Options
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Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline Focus of the StudyFocus of the Study Climate Change and Sea Level Climate Change and Sea Level
RiseRise Resilience FrameworkResilience Framework Mapping Inundation ScenariosMapping Inundation Scenarios Floodplain MappingFloodplain Mapping Legal and Institutional StructureLegal and Institutional Structure Potential Response OptionsPotential Response Options
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Research QuestionsResearch Questions
1) 1) What are the key regulatory and What are the key regulatory and institutional barriers to incorporating sea institutional barriers to incorporating sea level rise science and its uncertainty into level rise science and its uncertainty into decision making?decision making?
2) 2) How can these impediments be overcome in How can these impediments be overcome in order to develop a policy framework that can order to develop a policy framework that can effectively incorporate consideration of the effectively incorporate consideration of the uncertainty associated with sea level rise?uncertainty associated with sea level rise?
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Current Climate Change Current Climate Change FocusFocus
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Mitigation vs. Adaptation Mitigation vs. Adaptation Mitigation Mitigation
Decrease long-term changesDecrease long-term changes National/International National/International
AdaptationAdaptation Decrease SensitivityDecrease Sensitivity Increase Adaptive CapacityIncrease Adaptive Capacity Proactive or ReactiveProactive or Reactive Local/RegionalLocal/Regional
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Geographic FocusGeographic Focus
Add map of Washington or U.S.
http://www.worldmapsonline.com/hskwa2217washingtonncrmaprr.htm
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Local GovernmentsLocal Governments
Long-term planning Long-term planning horizonshorizons
Tradition coastal Tradition coastal zone land use zone land use management management
King County & City King County & City of Seattleof Seattle
Shoreline Master Shoreline Master Program UpdatesProgram Updates
http://www.seattle.gov/mayor/RainierCourtFactSheet.htm
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Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline Focus of the StudyFocus of the Study Climate Change and Sea Level Climate Change and Sea Level
RiseRise Resilience FrameworkResilience Framework Mapping Inundation ScenariosMapping Inundation Scenarios Floodplain MappingFloodplain Mapping Legal and Institutional StructureLegal and Institutional Structure Potential Response OptionsPotential Response Options
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Climate Change & Sea Level Climate Change & Sea Level RiseRise
IPCC WGI SPM 2001
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Climate Change & Sea Level Climate Change & Sea Level Rise Rise
IPCC WGI SPM 2007
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Climate SystemClimate System
Positive FeedbacksPositive Feedbacks Non-linear DynamicsNon-linear Dynamics Threshold ResponsesThreshold Responses Multiple EquilibriaMultiple Equilibria
Rial et al. 2004
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Sea Level Rise ScienceSea Level Rise Science
Alley et al. 2005
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Rates of Sea Level RiseRates of Sea Level Rise
Rising since Glacial Maximum Rising since Glacial Maximum Historic Peak Rate 50mm/yr Historic Peak Rate 50mm/yr (Alley et al. 2005)(Alley et al. 2005)
19,000 and 14,500 years ago19,000 and 14,500 years ago Last 50 years = 1.8 Last 50 years = 1.8 ++ 0.3 mm/yr 0.3 mm/yr (Nerem et al. (Nerem et al.
2006)2006)
1993-2003 = 3.1 1993-2003 = 3.1 ++ 0.4 mm/yr 0.4 mm/yr (IPCC 2007, Nerem et (IPCC 2007, Nerem et
al. 2006) al. 2006)
Thermal Expansion 1.2—1.8 mm/yrThermal Expansion 1.2—1.8 mm/yr Glacial and Ice-sheet Melt 1.0—1.2 mm/yrGlacial and Ice-sheet Melt 1.0—1.2 mm/yr
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Temperature and Sea Level Temperature and Sea Level Rise PredictionsRise Predictions
IPCC WG I Tech Summary 2001
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Sea Level Rise Science Sea Level Rise Science IPCC 2007IPCC 2007
IPCC Working Group I SPM 2007
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Sea Level Rise Science Sea Level Rise Science IPCC 2007IPCC 2007
However, this does not “…include the full effects However, this does not “…include the full effects of changes in ice sheet flow, because a basis in of changes in ice sheet flow, because a basis in published literature is lacking…. published literature is lacking…. Larger values Larger values cannot be excludedcannot be excluded, but understanding of these , but understanding of these effects is too limited to assess their likelihood or effects is too limited to assess their likelihood or provide a best estimate or an upper bound for sea provide a best estimate or an upper bound for sea level rise.”level rise.” (IPCC WGI SPM 2007, pg 11)(IPCC WGI SPM 2007, pg 11)
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Empirical Approach to Sea Empirical Approach to Sea Level Rise PredictionLevel Rise Prediction
Rahmstorf (2007): 0.5m – 1.4m by Rahmstorf (2007): 0.5m – 1.4m by 21002100
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Sea Level Rise UncertaintySea Level Rise Uncertainty
Physics of ice-sheet dynamicsPhysics of ice-sheet dynamics Difficulty modeling (projections)Difficulty modeling (projections) Human emissions choicesHuman emissions choices
Decision-makers forced to make
choices in an uncertain
environment.
???
???
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Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline Focus of the StudyFocus of the Study Climate Change and Sea Level Climate Change and Sea Level
RiseRise Resilience FrameworkResilience Framework Mapping Inundation ScenariosMapping Inundation Scenarios Floodplain MappingFloodplain Mapping Legal and Institutional StructureLegal and Institutional Structure Potential Response OptionsPotential Response Options
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Resilience FrameworkResilience Framework Focus on Social-Ecological SystemFocus on Social-Ecological System
Non-Human Systems
Human Systems
Adapted from SMA Curriculum Update 2007
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Resilience FrameworkResilience Framework
“..the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and reorganize while undergoing change so as to still retain essentially the same function, structure, identity, and feedbacks.” (Walker et al. 2004 pg 6)
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Resilience LandscapeResilience Landscape
Adapted from Walker et al.
(2004)
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Resilience LandscapeResilience Landscape
Adapted from Walker et al.
(2004)
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Resilience & Sea Level RiseResilience & Sea Level Rise
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Increasing ResilienceIncreasing Resilience
Decrease Exposure (Decrease Exposure (MitigationMitigation)) Decrease Sensitivity (Decrease Sensitivity (AdaptationAdaptation)) Increase Adaptive Capacity Increase Adaptive Capacity
((AdaptationAdaptation))
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Social-Ecological ResilienceSocial-Ecological Resilience
Madonna 1983
Ray of Light 1998
The Confessions Tour 2007 Accept uncertaintyAccept uncertainty
Embrace change Embrace change
Allow for Allow for transformationtransformation
Madonna = Resilience?Madonna = Resilience?
Berkes et al. 2003
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Value of Resilience Framework Value of Resilience Framework For Sea Level Rise ResponseFor Sea Level Rise Response
Focusing on resilience does not attempt to eliminate uncertainty but to develop better ways to co-exist with inherent and irreducible uncertainties.
(Klinke & Renn 2002)
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Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline Focus of the StudyFocus of the Study Climate Change and Sea Level Climate Change and Sea Level
RiseRise Resilience FrameworkResilience Framework Mapping Inundation ScenariosMapping Inundation Scenarios Floodplain MappingFloodplain Mapping Legal and Institutional StructureLegal and Institutional Structure Potential Response OptionsPotential Response Options
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Areas MappedAreas Mapped
Harbor Island, Seattle
Quartermaster Harbor,
Vashon-Maury Island
Downtown Olympia
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Relative Rates of Sea Level Relative Rates of Sea Level RiseRise
Local Vertical Land Local Vertical Land MovementsMovements Holdahl et al. 1989Holdahl et al. 1989 Mitchell et al. 1995Mitchell et al. 1995 Verdonck 2006 Verdonck 2006
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Vertical Land MovementsVertical Land Movements
General Trends General Trends ConsistentConsistent
Neah Bay UpliftNeah Bay Uplift Little Movement in Little Movement in
Puget Sound Puget Sound Seattle VariationSeattle Variation
-2 mm/yr 1989 -2 mm/yr 1989 0 mm/yr 20060 mm/yr 2006
Not Linear or Consistent?Not Linear or Consistent?
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Digital Elevation MapDigital Elevation Map
Based on Puget Sound Integrated Based on Puget Sound Integrated Bathymetry/Topography Bathymetry/Topography (Finlayson 2005)(Finlayson 2005)
DatumDatum Horizontal: Lambert Conformal Conic, Horizontal: Lambert Conformal Conic,
North American Datum of 1983. North American Datum of 1983. Vertical: North American Vertical Datum of Vertical: North American Vertical Datum of
19881988
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Digital Elevation MapDigital Elevation Map
LIDAR Vertical LIDAR Vertical Resolution:Resolution: Original Original
6 ft cells 6 ft cells ++ 30 cm 30 cm
Processed (Blended, Processed (Blended, Mosaic) Mosaic)
30 ft cells30 ft cells Error likely < 2 ft Error likely < 2 ft (Finlayson (Finlayson
2005)2005)
http://www.wy.nrcs.usda.gov/wygis/lidar.html
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2 feet
6 feet
4 feet
Sea Level Sea Level Rise Rise
ScenariosScenarios Based on Global Based on Global PredictionsPredictions
Map ResolutionMap Resolution
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Inundation MappingInundation Mapping
Determination of Determination of OHWOHW
Simple inundation Simple inundation scenariosscenarios
Doesn’t reflect Doesn’t reflect dynamic processes dynamic processes Storms, Flooding…Storms, Flooding… Human ResponseHuman Response
Overlay of Aerial Overlay of Aerial PhotographyPhotography
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Inundation MappingInundation Mapping
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Inundation MappingInundation Mapping
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Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline Focus of the StudyFocus of the Study Climate Change and Sea Level Climate Change and Sea Level
RiseRise Resilience FrameworkResilience Framework Inundation ScenariosInundation Scenarios Floodplain MappingFloodplain Mapping Legal and Institutional StructureLegal and Institutional Structure Potential Response OptionsPotential Response Options
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Seattle Flood Plain Seattle Flood Plain ScenariosScenarios
Focus on Flood Focus on Flood ZoneZone
100 yr Flood 100 yr Flood (1% chance/year) (1% chance/year)
Coastal flood zone Coastal flood zone not on FIRM Maps not on FIRM Maps
Highest TideHighest Tide 12.14 ft. NAVD88, 12.14 ft. NAVD88,
1.89 feet. above 1.89 feet. above OHW 1/27/1983 OHW 1/27/1983
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Seattle Flood Plain Seattle Flood Plain ScenariosScenarios
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Seattle Flood Plain Seattle Flood Plain ScenariosScenarios
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Seattle Flood Plain Seattle Flood Plain ScenariosScenarios
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Seattle Flood Plain Seattle Flood Plain ScenariosScenarios
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Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline Focus of the StudyFocus of the Study Climate Change and Sea Level Climate Change and Sea Level
RiseRise Resilience FrameworkResilience Framework Mapping Inundation ScenariosMapping Inundation Scenarios Floodplain MappingFloodplain Mapping Legal and Institutional StructureLegal and Institutional Structure Potential Response OptionsPotential Response Options
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Legal & Regulatory Legal & Regulatory FrameworkFramework
Federal, State, and LocalFederal, State, and Local Key Laws:Key Laws:
SMASMA Floodplains (FEMA)Floodplains (FEMA) Coastal Zone Management Coastal Zone Management
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Growth Management Act Critical Area Ordinances
Frequently Flooded Areas Geological Hazard
Federal
FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM)
NOAA Coastal Zone Management Act
MHHWOHW
200’
State
Dept of Ecology Coastal Zone Management
Shoreline Management Act Flood Plain
Management Act WDFW Hydraulic
Permit
FlRM
Local
FlRM
Flood Maps/Building Code
Shoreline Master Program
FlRM
Federal Consistency
100-yr Flood Plain
Private PropertyPublic Trust
MLW
MHW
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Growth Management Act Critical Area Ordinances
Frequently Flooded Areas Geological Hazard
Federal
FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM)
NOAA Coastal Zone Management Act
MHHWOHW
MLW200’
State
Dept of Ecology Coastal Zone Management
Shoreline Management Act Flood Plain
Management Act WDFW Hydraulic
Permit
FlRM
Local
FlRM
Flood Maps/Building Code
Shoreline Master Program
FlRM
Federal Consistency
100-yr Flood Plain
Private PropertyPublic Trust
MHW
Coastal Manageme
nt
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Growth Management Act Critical Area Ordinances
Frequently Flooded Areas Geological Hazard
Federal
FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM)
NOAA Coastal Zone Management Act
MHHWOHW
MLW200’
State
Dept of Ecology Coastal Zone Management
Shoreline Management Act Flood Plain
Management Act WDFW Hydraulic
Permit
FlRM
Local
FlRM
Flood Maps/Building Code
Shoreline Master Program
FlRM
Federal Consistency
100-yr Flood Plain
Private PropertyPublic Trust
MHW
Flood Zones
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Growth Management Act Critical Area Ordinances
Frequently Flooded Areas Geological Hazard
Federal
FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM)
NOAA Coastal Zone Management Act
MHHWOHW
MLW200’
State
Dept of Ecology Coastal Zone Management
Shoreline Management Act Flood Plain
Management Act WDFW Hydraulic
Permit
FlRM
Local
FlRM
Flood Maps/Building Code
Shoreline Master Program
FlRM
Federal Consistency
100-yr Flood Plain
Private PropertyPublic Trust
MHW
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Growth Management Act Critical Area Ordinances
Frequently Flooded Areas Geological Hazard
Federal
FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM)
NOAA Coastal Zone Management Act
MHHWOHW
MLW200’
State
Dept of Ecology Coastal Zone Management
Shoreline Management Act Flood Plain
Management Act WDFW Hydraulic
Permit
FlRM
Local
FlRM
Flood Maps/Building Code
Shoreline Master Program
FlRM
Federal Consistency
100-yr Flood Plain
Private PropertyPublic Trust
MHW
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Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline Focus of the StudyFocus of the Study Climate Change and Sea Level Climate Change and Sea Level
RiseRise Resilience FrameworkResilience Framework Mapping Inundation ScenariosMapping Inundation Scenarios Floodplain MappingFloodplain Mapping Legal and Institutional StructureLegal and Institutional Structure Potential Response OptionsPotential Response Options
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Sea Level Rise Response Sea Level Rise Response #1#1 Designated Floodplain & Building Designated Floodplain & Building
CodesCodes
BarriersBarriers Coastal flooding not always mappedCoastal flooding not always mapped Past may not represent futurePast may not represent future FEMA flood map update frequencyFEMA flood map update frequency
FEMA updates 20+ yearsFEMA updates 20+ years
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Sea Level Rise Response Sea Level Rise Response #1#1 Designated Floodplain & Building Designated Floodplain & Building
CodesCodes
Response OptionsResponse Options Include coastal flooding Include coastal flooding Increase frequency of flood map Increase frequency of flood map
updatesupdates Current FEMA flood map evaluation 5 yearsCurrent FEMA flood map evaluation 5 years SMA & GMA update requirement: 7 yearsSMA & GMA update requirement: 7 years
Flexible laws based on environmental Flexible laws based on environmental changeschanges
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Sea Level Rise Response Sea Level Rise Response #2 Management of Shoreline #2 Management of Shoreline
ArmoringArmoring
BarriersBarriers Private property rightsPrivate property rights Multiple appropriate planning scenariosMultiple appropriate planning scenarios Determination of cumulative impact Determination of cumulative impact
horizonhorizon
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Titus, J., 1998, Rising Seas….. Maryland Law Review 57 (4), 1283
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Sea Level Rise Response Sea Level Rise Response #2 Management of Shoreline #2 Management of Shoreline
ArmoringArmoring
Response OptionsResponse Options Consider dynamic shoreline for Consider dynamic shoreline for
cumulative impact assessmentcumulative impact assessment Rolling easement Rolling easement
Resilience Framework:
Accept and prepare for
change
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Sea Level Rise Response Sea Level Rise Response #3 Shoreline Designations#3 Shoreline Designations
Response OptionsResponse Options Create “threatened Create “threatened
by sea level rise” by sea level rise” categorycategory
Tailor sea level rise Tailor sea level rise response to response to shoreline shoreline designationsdesignations
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Sea Level Rise Response Sea Level Rise Response #4 Connection to CZMA #4 Connection to CZMA
““Because global warming may result in a Because global warming may result in a substantial sea level rise with serious substantial sea level rise with serious adverse effects in the coastal zone, adverse effects in the coastal zone, coastal states must anticipate and plan coastal states must anticipate and plan for such an occurrence.”for such an occurrence.” (16 USC § 1451 (16 USC § 1451 L)L)Coastal zone enhancement objective Coastal zone enhancement objective includes: “…anticipating and managing the includes: “…anticipating and managing the effects of potential sea level rise…”effects of potential sea level rise…” (16 USC § 1456b A2)(16 USC § 1456b A2)
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Sea Level Rise Response Sea Level Rise Response #4 Connection to CZMA#4 Connection to CZMA
Response OptionsResponse Options Update SMA to include consideration of Update SMA to include consideration of
sea level rise sea level rise Leverage Federal Consistency Leverage Federal Consistency Request additional funding through Request additional funding through
“enhancement grants” “enhancement grants”
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Summary Summary
Sea Level Rise Response is DifficultSea Level Rise Response is Difficult Value of Resilience FrameworkValue of Resilience Framework
Social-Ecological System ContextSocial-Ecological System Context Accepts UncertaintyAccepts Uncertainty Expects ChangeExpects Change
Mapping VulnerabilitiesMapping Vulnerabilities Exploring Response Options Exploring Response Options
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AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements CIG, JISAO, and NOAA for funding this researchCIG, JISAO, and NOAA for funding this research Dr. Edward L. Miles, Dr. Thomas M. Leschine Dr. Edward L. Miles, Dr. Thomas M. Leschine
and Douglas J. Canning for their knowledge, and Douglas J. Canning for their knowledge, insight, guidance and supportinsight, guidance and support
King County (Jill Moe & Sally Abella)King County (Jill Moe & Sally Abella) City of Seattle (Miles Mayhew and Brennon City of Seattle (Miles Mayhew and Brennon
Staley)Staley) Rob Norheim & Hugh ShipmanRob Norheim & Hugh Shipman Family, Friends and ColleaguesFamily, Friends and Colleagues
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Thanks!Thanks!
Alexander (Sascha) Petersen
3707 Brooklyn Ave N, Seattle, WA 98103
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Titus, J., 1998, Rising Seas….. Maryland Law Review 57 (4), 1283