annie unsworth - economics notes topic 4.docx[1]

8/3/2019 Annie Unsworth - Economics Notes Topic 4.Docx[1]

1/15

Economic Notes

Topic 4: Economic Objectives and PoliciesMacroeconomic Policy

The recent GFC foregrounded a reordering of Australias economic priorities Currently, the Principe concern for the Australian economy is high levels of

economic growth, with low unemployment (which is a derived demand)

The aim for economic growth is 2-3% p.a. over the full business cycle, whilstthe desired position of unemployment is full employment

within the current economic conditions, GDP has recorded 2.7% , whilstunemployment measures 5.3%

The remaining economic objectives are somewhat lesser, however, with themost recent IR rise; the Reserve bank has clearly raised concern of potentialfuture inflation, (aim 2-3% over the course of the business cycle), whichcurrently measures 2.9% yet has the potential to increase

Also, residual concern lays upon the environment (ESD), income distribution(equitable) and the current account

Monetary Policy Definition

Monetary policy refers to the manipulation of interest rates to

influence the level of economic activity 2-3% inflation full employment growth between 2-3%

Historic Inflationary Targeting saw interest rates rise to 7.25% in

March 2008 However, priorities have been redirected towards growth and

unemployment with their fall to 3.0% in April 2009

However have raised to 4.50% in May 2010

Domestic market Operations Are conducted between the RBA and financial institutions and banks

in the Short Term Money Market The short term money market fives financial institutions access to

deposit and lending facilities to settle debt between themselves throughtheir exchange settlement account

The cash rate is the price of borrowing from the STMM

To increase the cash rate (tighten monetary policy), sells commonwealth governmentsecurities to the banks this decreases liquidity (availability of funds)

To decrease the cash rate (loose) it purchases CGS to increase liquidity and decreasecompetition for cash and therefore decrease the cash rate

Cash rate movements are passed on in a competitive banking

environment in order to ensure products and due t their competitivenature

Keynesian Transmission Mechanism Consideration should first go towards the RBAs contractionary policy. They

Keynesian Transmission mechanism diagram is an economic theory used toexplain how monetary policy affects the economy

See diagram next page

In the case of contractionary monetary policy, the following impacts apply


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Economic Notes

If the RBA uses DMO to sell back T notes(S to S1), it decreases liquidity inthe official cash market (shift from r to r1), causing short term yields andinterest rates to increase (R to R1) due to the competitive banking structures

As interest rates increase the marginal efficiency of capital (determined by the

rate of profits compared with interest rates) increases causing a decrease inautonomous investment from I to I1

There is a certain quantity of investment for which it is no longer

profitable, due to increased interest rates

As demonstrated by panel 2, the increase in investment shifts AD from Ad1 toAd2. As autonomous investment decreases, the level of national income andemployment decreases via the multiplier effect

The RBA can use monetary policy to bring about price stability,

through reducing the inflationary gap Expansionary policy can reduce unemployment, through increasing

aggregate demand, which increases the demand for resources includinglabour

Contractionary policy can decrease output due to increased production

costs and decreased future sales

Recently, the RBA has increased the cash rate from 3-4.5% between October2009 and May 2010

Concerned with external inflationary pressures, and that Australia hadremained resistive to the GFC (lower unemployment than expected, positivegrowth), the RBA pre empted future inflation

Exchange rate (not related to diagram) Changes in domestic interest rates affect the exchange rate

An increase in Australian interest rates relative to overseas will attract

an inflow of foreign capital, increasing demand for $A and causing anappreciation of its value

This reduces the competitiveness of export firms and of import

competing firms resulting in a decrease in output An increase in interest rates also decrease consumption and imports,

which decreases the supply of $A increasing $A

Limitations Interest rates cannot target specific parts of the economy

A blunt instrument since an increase in interest rates affects all

sectors of the economy irrespective of other government policies Can adversely affect all types of spending, even if the problem is

excessive spending in only one area, such as housing

Interest rates cannot deal with cost-push inflation Monetary policy can influence demand-pull inflation, inflationary

expectations and imported inflation, but is not good at dealing withcost push inflation

Higher interest rate = higher repayments higher costs = higherinflation


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Economic Notes

Investment is based upon other factors Stock levels, excess capacity, sentiment, future expectations

The transmission from the cash rate to interest rates

Increase in cash rate by 0.25% saw Westpac increase I.R by 0.4% dueto overseas costs

The main advantage is the relatively short time lag Normally takes 6-9 months for an interest rate increase to affect

aggregate demand and the level of national income, whereas fiscalpolicy can take 24months

Fiscal Policy Fiscal policy refers to the use of the sixe and pattern of taxation and

government spending A key component of the current policy mix is its extensive deficit in

the fiscal balance Contractionary stance

Increased budget surplus (T>G) or a decreased budgetdeficit

Blanced Budget Occurs when G =T

Exanisiornary Stance Increased Budget deficit (G > T) or a decreased budget

surplus Fiscal policy can be broken down into two key components structural

and cyclicalExpenditureAD1 = C + I + G1 + X-MAS

AD = C + I + G + X-M

Expansionary

AD2 = C + I + G2 + X - M

Contractionary

Income

The effect of budget stimulus can be seen in the above figure A budget deficit leads to an increase in aggregate demand from AD to AD1 This leads to increasing demand for resources and income via the multiplier

effect until a new equilibrium is achieved at a higher level of national income,which indicates growth

An increase in NY sees and increase in investment in new productive capacityand therefore an increase in output


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Economic Notes

All the while, the injection attempted to improve confidence which sought toenhance the multiplier

1. Structural component refers to the deliberate changes in government spendingor taxation (discretionary policy)

Budget has two objectives Macro (medium term) to bring about a change in the level of aggregate demand in

the economy Through the multiplier change economic growth and employment Micro (long term) to bring about a structural adjustment, through a relocation of

land, labour, capital and enterprise to increase efficiency and productivity Structural change, changes income distribution For instance the 2010-11 budget, the government has increased funding on

infrastructure by $5.6 billion. As well as $2.2 billion for a national health care system

as well as $653 million in a renewable energy future fund.

2. Cyclical component This refers to the automatic stabilizers, which offset the extremes of the business

cycle. Aim to stabilize the economy in order to remove the peaks and troughs of the business

cycle. These include a progressive taxation system

Greater proportion of incomes taxed in boom containing growth in aggregate demand Lower proportion of income taxed in a recession. Maintains aggregate demand to

achieve activity and employment Transfer payments

Increase when the rate of unemployment increases in a recession This increases GE which helps raise AD Automatic stabilizers are counter cyclical, that is, they operate to reduce or cap the

peaks of economic activity. Therefore, reducing inflationary pressuresRate of economic growth

For instance when economic growth declines, the demand for labour decreases

leading to falling wages and greater unemployment levels. The provisions of a socialsecurity payment act to ensure that these people can maintain a minimal level ofconsumptions.

The effect of the automatic stabiliser

When considering these conditions, the 2009-10 budget saw $57.6 billion deficitwhich included $338.3 billion of expenditure. However, following the twin deficittheory, such has aided in crowding out private sector debt and adding to the Cad.

The priorities of fiscal policy have changed over time. Between 1998 and 2008, the primary objective was external stability (reducing

deficits) as the private sector was taking care of growth and employment This dramatically changed with the onset of the GFC. Economic growth, was sought

through automatic stabilizers and discretionary demandBudget Policy and effects


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Economic Notes

Resource Allocation: The budget offers growth through supply side management

The budget uses taxation and government expenditure to send price

signals and allocate resources to ill-resources sectors of the economy $ 5.6 billion in a new infrastructure find allocates resources to roads, rails, ports etc.

Investment in new productive capacity attempts to overcome structural constraints togrowth. Highlighted by the constrained ability to export coal to China. Framework forlong term growth

$4.5 billion clean energy, which stresses solar cells has allocated income andresources to sustainable power source

Inflation: Demand pull inflation

Aggregate demand chases aggregate supply as the sale of resources goods andservices are auctioned upwards

Income Distribution: Income reallocated towards low income earners who spend a greater

proportion of their income Pensions Carers payments

Unemployment: The budget has also stressed structural, frictional and cyclical

unemployment Cyclical:

Employment is a derived demand Structural (skills shortage): Training 18,000 nurses (2009 2013) Apprenticeship subsidies in over 500 occupations

Frictional Programs such as the $4.9 billion Job services

Australia, seeks to better connect job seekers withopportunities e.g. writing resumes

Also attempted to remove waiting periods Throughout the GFC, unemployment peaked at 5.8%, which is much

lower than the previously predicted 10%p.a it is currently at 5.4%.

However, reduced full employment was offset by increasing part time

Environmental Sustainability: $4.5 billion clean energy find, which stresses solar cells, has

reallocated income and resources to a sustainable power source

Current Account Deficit: Increase in Public sector debt through the crowding out effect of

Australian savings CAD has deteriorated from a low of 3.4% to 4.9% in March 2010

Funding a deficit Deficit financing


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Economic Notes

Borrowing funds from the private sector by selling new

commonwealth government securities in domestic financial markets Deficit financing is undertaken by the federal government selling

treasury bonds Advantages

No change in money supply No increase in the new foreign debt as the government has not borrowed overseas to

fund the budget deficit Disadvantages

May cause a rise in interest rates and crowding out of private investment Higher interest rates may increase capital inflow, raising the exchange rate, which

reduces the international competitiveness of Australian export and import substitutes Leads to the accumulation of national debt by government and sets up future

obligations in the form of public debt interest

Monetary financing (Also known as printing money)

it can borrow from the RBA by instructing the RBA to simply print

money to cover the shortfall in budget revenue Advantage

No change in interest rates and no accumulation of public debt Disadvantage

An increase in the money supply and a danger of rising inflation if the economy is atfull employment

Borrowing from overseas

It can borrow funds in overseas financial markets by getting the RBAto sell new government securities in return for foreign currencies Advantage

No increase in domestic interest rates Disadvantage

The government accumulates foreign debt and this adds to the size of the CADMicroeconomic Policy

Microeconomic policy is supply side management which aims to maximizethe allocation of resources between firms and industries in order to maximisethe output of scarce resources

The underlying motivator of microeconomic policy is structural

change: changes in the economys patterns of production over time, asevidence by the reallocation of land, labour, capital and enterprise.

Microeconomic policy accelerates structural change through sending pricesignals to enterprise which in turn reallocates resources and income to achievetechnical, allocative and dynamic efficiency, which subsequently achieves thesix economic objectives

Long term aim to trigger a reallocation of resources and structural changeStructural change: a change in the resource reallocation and patterns of

production in an economy over time caused by changing technology, governmentpolice, the price mechanism, competition and globalization Microeconomic policy is required due to the inadequacies of macro policy.

The stimulation of AD is infallible in raising resource consumptionand promoting growth,


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Economic Notes

However, as evidence by the short run Philips curve, there is a trade

off between inflation and unemployment. Also, macro-policy cannotaddress structural problems.

For instance in Australia, patterns of production were built behind protection, whichin no way promoted comparative advantage and blocked any attempt to yield the

fruits of globalization Supply side economics can reduce NAIRU, improve international

competitiveness and manage inflation

Industry Sector % ofgrossdomestic

product(GDP)

% of TotalEmployment

% ofExportsof goodsandservices

1989 2008 1989 2008 1989 2008

Agriculture 4.0 2.3 5.7 3.2 26.0 13.0

Mining 4.4 7.6 1.3 1.2 40.0 50.0Manufacturing 15.4 9.7 16.1 9.8 14.0 15.0

Services 76.2 80.3 76.9 85.5 20.0 22.0

Three types of efficiencies Allocative efficiency:

Patterns of production to maximize the overall utility and reduce opportunity costthrough a shift in the allocation of resources

Technical efficiency:

Firms producing at the lowest cost possible (technical optimum) Dynamic Efficiency:

Ability to change from producing one product to another Requires that firms be innovative by introducing up-to-date technology and by

responding to the changes in the needs of their customers.

Product market: final goods and services are sold Factor market: productive inputs such as land, labour, capital and enterprise

are sold.Role of microeconomic policy reformEconomic rationalism clearing obstacles and allowing market forces to induce

structural change

Increased competition Reducing the inefficiencies which result from distorted price signals

Price signals causes increase in productivity

Firms will need to be more innovative in the face of competition

Improved productivity Assists in the international competitiveness of local firms from import

competition Is more resistant to inflation

Reduction in price distortions (created by the tax system and governmentsubsidies)

In the past government business enterprises were sheltered from

competition Meant that they had higher prices and a lack of competitiveness


8/15

Economic Notes

Moving may business activities out of the public sector and into the private sector Less resistance to the market forces encouraging structural change

Technological advances, changes in income or consumption patterns,

increasing global specialization as well as resource discovery ordepletion can trigger changes in the output patterns in the Australian

economyThe benefits and costs of microeconomic reform

Benefits Productivity growth

Increased national income, and improved living standards Increased productivity is often triggered by increased competition in the goods and

factor markets Controlling inflation

By promoting competition, firms are less able to increase prices and so will be lesswilling to grant excessive wage rises

Allocative efficiency

Competition makes firms more flexible and responsive to change in consumerdemand

Costs Job losses

Structural unemployment Lower wages

Increased inequality in the distribution of income Labour market deregulation ay mean workers relying n safety net wage rises will fare

worse than those able to negotiate enterprise agreementsUnilateral Tariff reform

Tariff reductions: engaged by historic government 1975 Whitlam government: 25% across the board protection cuts

Hawke Government industry statements (1988, 1991)

By 2005, average maximum 5% excluding TCF, PMMV at 10%

Premise: intense competition sent price signals to domestic industry

Foreign resources and incomer are reallocated domestically To remain competitive firms must raise productivity to reduce costs Not always the case: in this way, resources are allocated towards their most efficient

use as per the principles of comparative advantagAlso promotes economies of scale,innovation

Long Term growth

GDP (National Income)

Benefits indicated in figure 1 Productivity gains shift aggregate supply to the right

New equilibrium: reduction in inflationary pressures whilst retaining

real GDP Low inflationary growth This causes a lower costs of production, expansion in output ad income Hence, there is higher GDP and employment without an increase in inflation This causes a shift in NAIRU to the left


9/15

Economic Notes

Benefits are not purely domestic: international competitiveness raises

exports CAD improvements

However, structural unemployment

Example smaller more productive industry PMV tariffs fell 40% -10% 1990-2005

Entered niche large passenger vehicle market

Resources allocated to competitive industry

Economies of scale: per employee 12-18 cars per year between 1990-

2005 Turnaround of $AU 224 million loss to $AU 372 million profit (export

middle east) Reduced inflationary pressures International competitiveness and productivity gains create long term framework for

growth Improve CAD through greater exports

However structural unemployment misallocategovernment income

Taxation reforms Goods and services tax, Decrease in the marginal tax rate and the streamlining of tax through pay as

you go Decrease in company tax rates from 36% to 30%

Raises incentives to work, save and invest

Through making it more efficient and equitable it increasesproductivity, savings and investment.

Competition Policy Competition policy is about bringing about workable competition that will

produce the best structure, conduct and performance in an industry The ACCC seeks this workable competition

The best level of competition in a market that maximizes consumer

choice and utility and allow firms to ahcievea satisfactory level of

economies of scale 9 Perfect competition is not always possible or desirable.

Trade Practices Act 1974 Price collisions and fixing agreements are illegal

Outlawed price discrimination

Resale price maintenance

Restricted mergers with or takeovers of rival firms

Competition Policy reform act (1995) Outlawed anti competitive behaviour, collusion, exclusive dealings,

price discrimination


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Economic Notes

Achieve maximum workable competition (perfect competition or

monopoly) To remain competitive firms must raise productivity to reduce costs Resources are allocated towards their most efficient use as per the principles of

comparative advantage

Also promotes economies of scale, innovation Low inflationary growth

Telstra: enforced through ACCC. Provided second part y access to

Telstra infrastructure Raised competition sent price signals to Telstra to reduce cost structures, enhance

productivity and achieve technical efficiency Price signals of profit potential further allocated resources into Services

communication industry, reducing opportunity cost Competition Policy Act : Framework for long-term

growth. Productivity commission estimates GDP raisedby 5.5%

Low inflationary with $AU 9 billion in consumer gains Structural change creates unemployment

Long run benefits of competition policy Lower cost structures as there is greater productive efficiency leading to lower

prices, lower cost-push inflation and greater international competitiveness Increased choice for consumers at lower prices leading to greater consumer

utility and therefore greater allocative efficiency, which improves livingstandards

More productive use of resources, freeing up for resource reallocationPublic Sector ReformHilmer Report 1973 recommendations of microeconomic reform in the form of

privatisation and corporisation Corporisation -

Public companies become profit driven

Privatisation Formerly government operated enterprises opened to natural,

unassisted, profit driven markets exchange of ownership Qantas (privatisation combined with two airline policy): Reduced cost structures to

remain competitive and enhance productivity Dynamic: Innovative product differential and encourage technological update e.g.

Airbus acquisition

Profit: 2008: $AU 618 million, Profit: 2009: $AU 210million

Low inflationary pressures Structural unemployment

Financial deregulation (not for structural change) 1985 RBA opened the baking sector releasing 16 new licenses

This increased competition and reduced the cost of finance, facilitating

innovative product differential in capital markets. Enhanced technicaland dynamic efficiency

Permitted investment led growth (cheaper, malleable loans) Floating the Australian dollar raised the competitiveness and

productivity of Australian exports: enhancing technical efficiency Improved exports enhance BOGS


11/15

Economic Notes

Labour Market The decentralization of the labour market through certified agreements. Accords in 1980s

Break wage price spiral through tying wage growth to productivity

gains

Eliminated wage indexation Through Workplace Relations Ac, collective agreements and AWAs were

standard wage agreements. Although, Rudds fairness with fairness policydisbanded the latter.

Certified agreements (enterprise bargaining): Collectively bargained at the enterprise level (usually through unions,

but not always) in relation to wage adjustments, working conditions,work practices and productivity gains

Awards: minimm standards of employment LMR has rewarded workers who seek to improve their skills via wage

increases Multi-skilled workers are more dynamically and technically efficient,

but also, multi-skilled workers can also move industries more readily,enhancing allocative efficiency

In this way patterns of production have been directed towards firms

with the greatest capacity to pay Low inflationary growth International competitiveness

Advantages and Disadvantages of Decentralised Wage Determination Advantages:

Increased flexibility more efficient allocation of labour

Increased productivity

greater incentive to increase skills trainingand education

Decreased likelihood of cost push inflation

Disadvantages

Market determines wage outcomes based on productivity and skills

increased wage and income inequality

Greater labour market segmentation those with greater bargaining

power have higher wages Fed government has no wage control

Environmental Regulation Carbon pollution reduction scheme

Garanaut report 2008 demanded immediate action Rudd proposed a carbon pollution reduction scheme. However, as of

yet delayed by liberals and greens Proposition: give property rights to carbon

Various enterprises given fixed permit number for pollution. Failing to

adhere requires payment of a fine Internalise the externality

If costs exceed price of new capital, may promote research and

development QP represents income reallocation to Government for research and

cleaning


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Economic Notes

Business may pass on costs (inflation). Reduce real income or cut workers toremain competitive

Environmental regulation challenges Australias resource based growth Framework for the future

Labour Market Reform Labour is an input in the production process

Represent upwards of 60% of firms costs

Objectives Improve the operation of the labour market

Reduce unemployment Reduce cost-push inflation Raise productivity Responsive to changing economic conditions Flexibility and increases in international compettitivness

Achieved through Deregulation reducing the role of the AIRC De centralization moving power away from central government

bargaining to enterprise bargaining

Problems Prior to 1996 Inadequate differences in wages were not providing clear price signals

on the demand for particular skills, occupations and industries High minimum wages were contributing to high unemployment among

youth Unfair dismissal laws were harming the unemployed it was claimed

that they were discouraging employers from hiring new employees Lack of incentives for the unemployed and other welfare recipients to

seek employment The accords (MKI-VIII) 1983-1993

Broke the wage price spiral and wage indexation. Wage increases were matched to productivity increases.

Workplace Relations Act 1996 Introduction of Australian Work Place agreements (AWAs) and Certified

Agreements (CAs) Encouraged labour market flexibility and promoted workplace level

wage bargaining An industrial award system developed for workers unable to negotiate

enterprise agreements These reforms were designed to reduce unemployment and increase

labour market responsiveness to structural and cyclical shifts in theproduct market

Industrial Awards: Applies to workers not covered by enterprise bargaining

Legal documnet setting out the minimum wage and working conditions

for employees in an industry or job classification Centrally administered


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Economic Notes

Awards were simplified so that only 20 allowable matters were

enforceable Annual safety net increase only

Benchmark against which employment contracts will be judged

Certified Agreements: An agreement collectively bargained at the enterprise level (usually

through unions, but not always in relation to wage adjustments,working conditions, work practices ad productivity gains

(Non wage benefits include superannuation, sick leave, holiday leave, long serviceleave etc.)

They exist in addition to the award and are renegotiated periodically

The AIRC certifies the agreements provided they satisfy a no

disadvantage test which requires that the agreement reached is at leastas favourable to workers as was the appropriate award

Australian Workplace Agreements (AWAs): Individual employment contracts

Maximises the individual employees ability to create flexible working

conditions in a negotiated agreement with their employer. The agreement is reviewed by the Employment advocate to ensure that

it does not breach the no disadvantage test.

The Workplace Relations Amendment (work choices) Act 2005 Reforms:

Allowable matter

20 allowable matter reduced to 16 for awards and 45 for collective agreements andAWAs Unfair dismissal

Regulations on unfair dismissal will be significantly weakened Firms that employ 100 or fewer persons will be exempt from unfair dismissal claims Businesses employment more that 100 persons must wait 6 months before they can

pursue an unfair dismissal claim Union involvement:

Collective bargaining will be hampered by tough restrictions on unions over theirrights to enter workplaces and the right to strike

Reduction of third party scrutiny of individual contracts:

The no disadvantage test is removed and replaced by the Fair Pay and ConditionsStandard

This means that lodgment of the individual contracts (AWAs) with the office of theemployment advocate is allAssessment of Labour Market Policy

At the heart of the reforms decentralization improves labour market flexibility Wage increases are tied to productivity gains: greater flexibility in

wage outcomes Reward multi-skilling: dynamically efficient Underperforming workers pressured to improve But also, labour is allocated towards the capacity to pay, which offers a more optimal

allocation of resources about the economy


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Economic Notes

Raised productivity reduced RULC (real unit labour costs): which makes enterprisemore technically efficient, but it also improves price stability

GDP (National Income)

Ultimately achieves low inflationary growth: indicated in figure 1 Productivity gains shifts aggregate supply to he right

New equilibrium: reduction in inflationary pressures whilst raising real

GDP Low inflationary growth

Benefits not purely domestic: international competitiveness raise

exports CAD improvements

Also though, productivity produces greater environmental

sustainability to current production methods As touched on earlier, productivity and real income are linked

Real income improves with productivity gains (also from growth

dividend) Increased average living standards

Greater employment opportunities (particularly for women, teenagers

and the unskilled) due to fewer restrictions Lower levels of industrial disputation that before the introduction of

enterprise bargaining through reduced union influence and defineddisputation periods.

It increased the labour market flexibility;Disadvantages Increaed income inequality especially for those not successful in obtaining an

enterprise agreement Possibility of employees and employers not having equal bargaining power

Loss of rights and erosion of minimum standards

Partly due to less union movement Very difficult to sustain a system that links productivity with wage gains Pattern bargaining potentially replaced true enterprise bargaining where one

certified agreement with one employed becomes the model of other certifiedagreements

Erosion of job security Increased causalisation of the workforce Multiple authorities in industrial relations: each IRCs/ industrial which

increase complexity

Wokplace relations Amendment (A stronger safety net) Bill 2006

Introduced Fairness Test and workplace ombudsman

A balance between decentralisation and right s protection

Forward with Fairness Policy andFair Work Act 2009 Disbanding AWAs

Re instated collective agreements and enterprise bargaining as theprimary wage determination mechanism


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Economic Notes

Minimum standards increased from 5 to 10

Reduced exploitation of workers and promote equality Increased casualisation of workforce Reduced productivity and international competitiveness Wage increases may outstrip productivity gains. If firms are unable to absorb high

labour costs, they will be passed on consumer, causing inflation and a potential wage-price spiral

Fair work Australia ministers the certification of CAs applying the better off overalltest

Structural (skills shortage): Training 18000 nurses (2009 2013)

Apprenticeship subsidies in over 500 occupations (bridging school and

employment). Enhances allocative efficiency in moving workers to their best use

Frictional: Programs as the $4.9b Job Services Australia better connect job

seekers with opportunities e.g. writing resumes. Enhances dynamicefficiency and capacity to shift

Removing caps and waiting periods, job seekers can get into the right

training or get back into the workforce faster and employees can finthe staff they need.

annie unsworth - economics notes topic 4.docx[1]

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