anis zamananis zaman escap drivers of energy transition 2030 agenda sdgs (on energy sdg7) universal...
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Concept of SDG7 Roadmap andIntroduction to
Anis ZamanESCAP
Drivers of Energy Transition
2030 Agenda
SDGs (on Energy SDG7)
Universal access to affordable, reliable and
modern energy
Substantially increase the share of renewable
energy (in TFEC)
Double the rate of EE improvement
NDCs
Emission reduction commitment under the
Paris Agreement
Interlinkages between SDG7 and other SDGs• Energy is the key
enabler for most SDGs
• Interlinkages will influence both energy demand and supply at national levels
More information: From goals to joules: A quantitative approach of interlinkages between energy and the Sustainable Development Goals. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629618308107
Energy Transition Pathways for the 2030 Agenda in Asia and the Pacific
72.0 67.69
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Pro
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n w
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acc
ess
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cl
ean
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oki
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(%)
Historical Global outlook Current policy scenario
The big task ahead – transitioning to 2030
• Ministerial declaration from the second Asian Pacific Energy Forum (APEF) held in April 2018
“support members and associate members in the
implementation of the present Declaration by… assisting
countries, upon request, in developing national road maps
for the implementation of Sustainable Development Goal
7 and in mainstreaming the global targets related to
energy into national policies, plans and strategies.”
SDG7
7.1 ensure universal access to affordable, reliable and modern energy services
7.2 increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix
7.3 double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency
Proportion of population with access to electricity
Proportion of population with primary reliance on clean fuels and technology
Renewable energy share in the total final energy consumption
Energy intensity measured in terms of primary energy and GDP
GOAL TARGETS INDICATORS
SDG definition of clean cooking fuel: https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/metadata/files/Metadata-07-01-02.pdfSDG definition of renewable energy: https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/metadata/files/Metadata-07-02-01.pdfSDG definition of energy intensity: https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/metadata/files/Metadata-07-03-01.pdf
SDG7 needs an integrated approach
Access to electricity
Access to clean
cooking fuel
Renewable energy
Energy efficiency
Sustained economic growth
Popl growth and urbanization
Energy security
Resources availability
Least-cost option
Co
nst
rain
ts, d
rive
rs a
nd
p
rio
riti
es
National Expert SDG Tool for Energy Planning (NEXSTEP)
An integrated tool to assist policymakers make informed policy decisions that would help achieve
SDG7 targets and NDC.
An integrated tool to assist policymakers make informed policy decisions that would help achieve
SDG7 targets and NDC.
SDG-responsive energy planning
2030 Now
TFEC under BAU
+ Additional electricity
+ Additional clean cooking fuel
- Energy efficiency improvement
Updated TFEC
Fossil fuel
Renewables
Fossil fuel
Renewables
Updated RE share
RE share
Op
tim
isat
ion
fo
r N
DC
Technologies
Investment
Business models Po
licy
anal
ysis
Technology deployment
Fiscal policies
Financing mechanisms
Now 2030Conventional planningSDG planning
Economic performances of technical options
e.g. NPV, IRR, etc.
STEP 1
Energy, emissions and investment
modelling
OSeMOSYS/LEAP
Interlinkages framework
Linking energy (SDG7) and other SDGs
Renewable energy resources data
STEP 3
Policy analysis
MCDA
OUTPUT
Policy recommendations
Enabling policy measures for each
SDG7 target
OnSSET
Spatial analysis
Historical energy data
Macroeconomic data e.g. GDP growth
rate
Demographic data
Use
r in
terf
ace
Technical options
Using the output from modelling, possible technical options to achieve the SDG7
targets (in agreement with the NDC target),
will be identified.
STEP 2
Economic analysis of technical options
Performance indicators
Macro and micro economic
parameters
Evaluation criteria
Database of policies and best
practices
NEXSTEP methodology
NE
XS
TE
P o
utp
ut
Energy Access
Types and mix of technologies
Appropriate business models (Best practices for the technology/service deployment)
Changes in emissions (align with NDC target)
Renewable energy
Appropriate share of renewable energy
Technology prioritization (techno-economic analysis)
Investment size per technologies(economic analysis)
Enabling policy measures(Policy analysis – ex-post)
Energy efficiency
Energy and cost reduction
Geographic relevance(spatial analysis)
National Roadmap To achieve SDG7 targets together with NDC target for the energy sector
NEXSTEP output - Examples
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
TFEC
(M
toe
)
Total Final Energy Consumption by sector
Industry Transport Residential Commercial Other Non Energy Utilization
NEXSTEP output - Examples
Coal, 55.00%
Gas, 15.00%
Oil, 2.00% Solar PV, 5.00%Wind, 3.00%
Hydro, 11.00%
Biofuels & Waste, 2.00%
Geothermal, 7.00%
Other,
9.00%
SHARE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY FUEL/SOURCE
0.000
100.000
200.000
300.000
400.000
500.000
600.000
700.000
800.000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Elec
tric
ity
gen
erat
ion
(G
Wh
)
ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY FUEL/SOURCE
Coal Gas Oil Solar PV Wind Hydropower Biofuels & Waste Geothermal
0.00
200.00
400.00
600.00
800.00
2016 2020 2025 2030
Emis
sio
ns
(MtC
O2
-e)
and
inve
stm
ent
($ b
illio
n)
ELECTRICITY GENERATION, EMISSIONS AND INVESTMENT REQUIREMENT
Emissions Investment Demand
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030U
SD B
ILLI
ON
FF SUBSIDY AND CARBON TAX TO REDUCE THE RE INVESTMENT GAP
FF subsidy liberalized Carbon tax Investment gap
Abso
rption c
hille
r
VSD
WH
R
Boiler
eff
icie
ncy
12
9
8
11
Build
ing c
ode
EE lig
hting
EP
C
MP
ES f
or
app
liance
s
10
9
4
7
Fu
el eff
sta
nd
ard
s
MR
T
EV
s and
Hyb
rids
7
7
6
ENERGY EFFICIECY IMPROVEMENT -
example520
MtOe430
Mtoe
40 Mtoe30 Mtoe 20 Mtoe
INDUSTRY RESIDENTIAL & COMMERCIAL TRANSPORT
Savings from FF subsidy reform Revenue from carbon price Investment gap
-
50
100
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200
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300
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400
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500
10.00 15.00 20.00 25.70
USD
bill
ion
Example of investment analysis
Carbon price
Auto generated roadmap
1. Current energy situation1. Total final energy consumption
1. TFEC by sources2. TFEC by sectors3. Electricity
2. Total primary energy supply
2. SDG 7 status and BAU Scenario1. Access to electricity2. Access to clean cooking fuel3. Renewable energy4. Energy efficiency5. Emissions6. The gaps
3. SDG scenario1. Access to electricity2. Access to clean cooking fuel3. Energy efficiency4. Emissions5. Renewable energy
4. Pathways to 20301. Technical options2. Economic analysis3. Policy analysis
5. Policy recommendations
Development of NEXSTEP
• Methodology development• Developed through a learning process
• Peer reviewed by a panel of external experts in the subject matter
• Development of different components is underway
• Expecting a beta version by the end of 2019
• National consultations• Working with 3 pilot countries (Bangladesh, Georgia and Indonesia) to learn
about differences in national contexts
• Member States will be invited to use NEXSTEP from 2021.• ESCAP will provide training on the use of NEXSTEP for energy planning
NEXSTEP testing – Indonesia
• SDG7.1-access to electricity• Universal access will be achieved by 2020 (national plan)
• 23.3 TWh additional electricity by 2020 with an estimated investment of $ 2.3 billion
• SDG7.1-access to clean cooking fuel• 60.6 % in 2018, estimated to be 77% by 2030 (under BAU)
• Zero kerosene by 2020, 10 million household connect to natural gas by 2025
• 112 Mtoe natural gas is required (assuming natural gas supply through pipeline) by 2030
These results are for illustration only – they have been found during testing of the methodology and are likely to vary once further analysis is performed with the final version of NEXSTEP.
NEXSTEP testing – Indonesia
• Suggestions for improvement (some are specific to Indonesia)• The biomass estimation process has a very low confidence level
• Partial inclusion need to be allowed• Access to clean cooking fuel
• Natural gas should be preferred than LPG• Use of electricity should be explored
• Renewable energy• Reduction of oil should be largely compensated by biofuel.
• Energy efficiency• Difficult to halve the EI, option to choose a percent would be good
It’s not a traditional energy modelling software.
It’s an integrated system planning approach to achieve SDG7 and NDC
Thank you