anirban basu - powerpoint presentation 5/24/2016

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By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. May 24 th , 2016 The Economist Who Loved Me On Behalf of The ABC NH/VT Construction Economic Summit

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PowerPoint Presentation

By: Anirban BasuSage Policy Group, Inc.

May 24th, 2016

The Economist Who Loved MeOn Behalf ofThe ABC NH/VT Construction Economic Summit

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The World is Not (Growing) Enough*1999: Pierce Brosnan; Sophie Marceau

(1999)2

Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas2016 ProjectedNotes: 1. For India, data and forecasts are presented on a fiscal year basis and GDP from 2011 onward is based on GDP at market prices with fiscal year 2011/12 as a base year. 2. For World Output, the quarterly estimates and projections account for approximately 90 percent of annual world output at purchasing-power-parity weights. For Emerging Market and Developing Economies, the quarterly estimates and projections account for approximately 80 percent of annual emerging market and developing economies output at purchasing-power-parity weights. 2016 Proj. Global Output Growth: 3.2%Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2016.

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NYMEX Crude Oil Future Prices in U.S. DollarsApril 2001 through April 2016Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_fut_s1_d.htmhttps://www.quandl.com/data/CHRIS/CME_CL1-Crude-Oil-Futures-Continuous-Contract-1-CL1-Front-Month4

World Oil Demand Growth2007Q1 through 2016Q1*Source: The World Bank; International Energy Agency

*2016Q1 is an estimate

Last updated using public release dated: April 14https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/currentreport/https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/schedule/5

MoneypennyMetal Price IndicesApril 2007 through April 2016Source: The World BankUS$ NominalBase metals include aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc.Precious metals include gold, platinum, and silver.

http://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets6

Source: Quandl.com Baltic Dry IndexMay 2009 through May 2016The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a measure of the price of shipping major raw materials such as metals, grains, and fossil fuels by sea. The BDI is a composite of 3 sub-indices, each covering a different carrier size: Capesize, Panamax, and Supramax.

Take a monthly average of readings and show monthly instead of daily? (to save space/make it easier for ppt to handle the data)

https://www.quandl.com/data/LLOYDS/BDI-Baltic-Dry-IndexBaltic Dry Index. Source: Lloyd's List. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a measure of the price of shipping major raw materials such as metals, grains, and fossil fuels by sea. It is created by the London Baltic Exchange based on daily assessments from a panel of shipbrokers. The BDI is a composite of 3 sub-indices, each covering a different carrier size: Capesize, Panamax, and Supramax. Capesize carriers are the largest ships with a capacity greater than 150,000 DWT. Panamax refers to the maximum size allowed for ships travelling through the Panama Canal, typically 65,000 - 80,000 DWT. The Supramax Index covers carriers with a capacity of 50,000 - 60,000 DWT. 7

Skyfall - BRAZIL

Consumer price index increased 10.7 percent in 2015, despite ongoing economic contraction;Highest inflation rate in more than a decade;Increases in key categories:Food (12.3%)Transportation prices (10.2%)Housing related costs (18.3%)

Brazils real down 33 percent compared to the U.S. dollar by end of 2015.Standard & Poors and Fitch Ratings downgraded sovereign debt to junk statusBoletin Focus, a weekly survey of 100 private financial analysts, predicts Brazils economy will contract by another 3 percent this year.

Source: Currency Exchange, Wall Street Journal*2012: Daniel Craig, Berenice Marlohe

CPI: http://www.wsj.com/articles/brazil-inflation-reaches-highest-level-in-13-years-1452252895

Boletin Focus: http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2016/01/04/brazil-economy-to-contract-nearly-3-pct-in-2016-analysts-say/

Real: http://qz.com/575530/the-real-is-slumping-hard-as-brazils-economy-collapses/USD per 1 BRLJanuary 1st 2015 v. January 1st 2016: -32.9% (0.37629 to 0.25254)http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=BRL&to=USD&view=1Y

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A View to a Kill - RUSSIACollapse in oil prices and economic sanctions (and counter sanctions) related to Ukraine have hurt Russian economic growth;Economy contracted about 4 percent in 2015;World Bank: Russia will remain in recession in 2016;

Russias ruble down 20 percent compared to U.S. dollar by end of 2015;Continued decline in investment expected;Budget expenditures will drop 3 to 5 percent in 2016.

Source: Currency Exchange, CNBC*1985: Roger Moore, Tanya Roberts

http://thumbnails.cnbc.com/VCPS/Y2013/M05D31/3000171284/6ED2-CB-DavidBarse0531.jpg

Ruble:USD per 1 RUBJanuary 1st 2015 v. January 1st 2016: -20.4% (0.01721 to 0.0137)http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=RUB&to=USD&view=2Y9

I Expect You to Grow - CHINAGrowth at slowest pace in 2 decades;World Bank predicts 6.7% economic growth for 2016 (down from 7.0% in June);George Soros: China has a major adjustment problem on its hands;

Stock values fell 12 percent during first week of 2016 trading;Government attempts to stabilize economy only made investors even more wary;Circuit breaker system shuts down trading when losses hit a certain level;Too restrictive and causes panic selling once breakers are turned off.

Source: Currency Exchange, CNN Money*(1964) Goldfinger, misquote from Auric Goldfinger, Sean Connery, Honor Blackman

Yuan: http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=CNY&to=USD&view=2Y#

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-06/world-bank-sees-global-growth-sputtering-along-amid-china-slump-ij392sat

http://www.dw.com/en/the-good-and-bad-of-chinas-economy-in-2015/a-18918678

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/chaos-in-chinese-stock-market-sends-economic-waves-around-the-world/2016/01/07/998c58ec-b566-11e5-a842-0feb51d1d124_story.html

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/money/dam/assets/150707143539-china-stocks-selloff-1024x576.jpg10

Quantum of Solace*2008: Daniel Craig; Olga Kurylenko

(1999)11

Gross Domestic Product1990Q1 through 2016Q1*Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis*Advance (1st) Estimate

Q3 First Estimate Release: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm12

Contributions to GDP Growth by Component 2015Q2 2016Q1*2016Q1: +0.5%Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis*Advance (1st) Estimate

Table 1.1.2. Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product 13

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics April 2016: +160KNet Change in U.S. Jobs, BLSApril 2002 through April 2016

May news release: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htmUS Total Nonfarm (SA): CES0000000001U.S. Unemployment Rate LNS14000000

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National Nonfarm Employmentby Industry SectorApril 2015 v. April 2016All told 2,692K Jobs gainedSource: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

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National Construction Employment Monthly Net ChangeApril 2000 through April 2016Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsIndustry SectorApr-16Mar-16Apr-151-net12-net12-%Construction6,670.06,669.06,409.01.0261.04.1 Residential Building727.6720.5690.17.137.55.4 Nonresidential Building747.0745.9721.51.125.53.5 Heavy & Civil Engineering Construction948.7950.9930.8-2.217.91.9 Specialty Trade Contractors4,246.44,251.84,066.4-5.4180.04.4

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State-by-state Growth in Construction JobsApril 2015 v. April 2016Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics*Construction, Mining, and Logging are included in one industry.STATEYear-over-year Ch. (000)STATEYear-over-year Ch. (000)STATEYear-over-year Ch. (000)CALIFORNIA49.8TENNESSEE*6.1RHODE ISLAND1.2FLORIDA30.1MISSOURI5.8SOUTH DAKOTA*1.2MASSACHUSETTS13.9OREGON5.6NEBRASKA*0.9GEORGIA13.6SOUTH CAROLINA5.6DELAWARE*0.6NEW YORK13.1UTAH5.6ALABAMA0.4TEXAS13.1LOUISIANA5.3VIRGINIA0.4COLORADO11.5MICHIGAN4.7MAINE0.3IOWA10.6INDIANA4.5MONTANA0.3MARYLAND*10.5ILLINOIS4.2DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA*0.1OHIO10.2OKLAHOMA4.1MISSISSIPPI0.0NORTH CAROLINA10.0NEW JERSEY3.1NEW MEXICO0.0WASHINGTON9.6IDAHO3.0WEST VIRGINIA-0.3WISCONSIN8.8CONNECTICUT2.3KENTUCKY-0.8MINNESOTA7.5ARKANSAS2.2ALASKA-1.8ARIZONA6.9PENNSYLVANIA1.8WYOMING-2.4NEVADA6.9VERMONT1.5KANSAS-3.1HAWAII*6.2NEW HAMPSHIRE1.4NORTH DAKOTA-4.6

NOTE:These states have construction, logging, and mining in one industry:Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Maryland, Nebraska, South Dakota, Tennessee-Doing a multi screen search and selecting all states and then selecting construction will not include these states..therefore you must be aware when downloading the data in a mult-table format that the list will NOT include these states and that pasting the normal alphabetized list of all states into this data will match the not match the state name to the correct series ID. Please see SN for clarification or help when updating this slide.17

New Hampshire Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector Groups (SA)April 2015 v. April 2016Absolute ChangeNH Total: +8.7K; +1.3%US Total (SA): +2,692K; +1.9%*According to the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) seriesNH added 12,259 jobs between April 2015 and April 2016.Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Series ID are in excel linked to chartUS Total Nonfarm (SA): CES000000000118

Nashua, NH-MA NECTA Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector Groups (SA)April 2015 v. April 2016Absolute ChangeNashua NECTA Total: +0.0K; +0.0%NH Total: +8.7K; +1.3%US Total (SA): +2,692K; +1.9%Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Series ID are in excel linked to chartUS Total Nonfarm (SA): CES000000000119

Manchester, NH NECTA Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector Groups (SA)April 2015 v. April 2016Absolute ChangeManchester NECTA Total: +2.8K; +2.6%NH Total: +8.7K; +1.3%US Total (SA): +2,692K; +1.9%Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Series ID are in excel linked to chartUS Total Nonfarm (SA): CES000000000120

Vermont Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector Groups (SA)April 2015 v. April 2016Absolute ChangeVT Total: +6.0K; +1.9%US Total (SA): +2,692K; +1.9%*According to the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) seriesVT added 1,697 jobs between April 2015 and April 2016.Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics**Employment figures for Vermonts Information sector not available on a seasonally adjusted basis

Series ID are in excel linked to chartUS Total Nonfarm (SA): CES000000000121

Burlington-South Burlington, VT NECTA Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector Groups (SA)April 2015 v. April 2016Absolute ChangeBurlington NECTA Total: +2.3K; +1.9%VT Total (SA): +6.0K; +1.9%US Total (SA): +2,692K; +1.9%Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Series ID are in excel linked to chartUS Total Nonfarm (SA): CES000000000122

Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA) April 2015 v. April 2016 Percent ChangeRankState%RankState%RankState%1IDAHO3.817MARYLAND2.132MONTANA1.32DELAWARE3.717MASSACHUSETTS2.132NEW HAMPSHIRE1.33OREGON3.520HAWAII2.032OHIO1.34UTAH3.421KENTUCKY1.938CONNECTICUT1.25GEORGIA3.321VERMONT1.939ILLINOIS1.15WASHINGTON3.323INDIANA1.639RHODE ISLAND1.17FLORIDA3.223NEW JERSEY1.641SOUTH DAKOTA1.08ARIZONA3.123TEXAS1.642PENNSYLVANIA0.99TENNESSEE2.926DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA1.543MAINE0.510CALIFORNIA2.826NEBRASKA1.544NEW MEXICO0.211COLORADO2.726WISCONSIN1.545KANSAS0.011SOUTH CAROLINA2.729MINNESOTA1.446OKLAHOMA-0.113NEVADA2.629MISSISSIPPI1.447LOUISIANA-0.614MICHIGAN2.529NEW YORK1.447WEST VIRGINIA-0.615NORTH CAROLINA2.332ALABAMA1.349ALASKA-1.016VIRGINIA2.232IOWA1.350WYOMING-3.717ARKANSAS2.132MISSOURI1.351NORTH DAKOTA-3.8

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsU.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: +1.9%

US Total Nonfarm (SA): CES0000000001

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Source: Moodys EconomyRecession Watchas of March 2016

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U.S. Unemployment Rate: 5.0%Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) April 2016Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsRankState%RankState%RankState%1SOUTH DAKOTA2.516MONTANA4.232RHODE ISLAND5.32NEW HAMPSHIRE2.619MISSOURI4.336NORTH CAROLINA5.43NEBRASKA3.019TENNESSEE4.337ARIZONA5.54COLORADO3.121TEXAS4.437GEORGIA5.55HAWAII3.221WISCONSIN4.437WYOMING5.55NORTH DAKOTA3.223OKLAHOMA4.540CONNECTICUT5.75VERMONT3.223OREGON4.541NEVADA5.88MAINE3.425MARYLAND4.641SOUTH CAROLINA5.89IDAHO3.726NEW JERSEY4.741WASHINGTON5.89UTAH3.727FLORIDA4.844MISSISSIPPI6.011KANSAS3.827MICHIGAN4.845ALABAMA6.111MINNESOTA3.829NEW YORK4.946NEW MEXICO6.213ARKANSAS3.930INDIANA5.247LOUISIANA6.313IOWA3.930OHIO5.248DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA6.413VIRGINIA3.932CALIFORNIA5.348WEST VIRGINIA6.416DELAWARE4.232KENTUCKY5.350ALASKA6.616MASSACHUSETTS4.232PENNSYLVANIA5.350ILLINOIS6.6

U.S. Unemployment Rate LNS14000000 NOTE: Rates shown are a percentage of the labor force. Data refer to place of residence. Estimates for the current month are subject to revision the following month.

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Unemployment Rates, 20 Largest Metros (NSA)March 2016Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsRankMSAURRankMSAUR1Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area3.810Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area4.91San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area3.810Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area4.93Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, MA-NH Metropolitan NECTA4.013New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA Metropolitan Statistical Area5.03Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area4.013Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Metropolitan Statistical Area5.05Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan Statistical Area4.115Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metropolitan Statistical Area5.16Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area4.415St. Louis, MO-IL Metropolitan Statistical Area (1)5.17Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area4.517Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA Metropolitan Statistical Area5.28San Diego-Carlsbad, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area4.718Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI Metropolitan Statistical Area5.69Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area4.819Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area5.810Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD Metropolitan Statistical Area4.920Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area6.6

1. Area boundaries do not reflect official OMB definitions.

Please make sure all unemployment rates have the same number of decimals (ex. 8.0 rather than just 8)http://www.bls.gov/lau/Tables: Unemployment Rates for Large Metropolitan Areas

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License to Sell*License to Kill, 1989: Timothy Dalton; Carey Lowell

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15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates May 1995 through May 2016*Source: Freddie Mac*Week ending 5/19/2016

Weekly: http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/archive.htmlMonthly 30 yr: http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms30.htmMonthly 15 yr: http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms15.htm28

Source: U.S. Census BureauU.S. Homeownership

http://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/ http://www.census.gov/econ/currentdata/dbsearch?program=HV&startYear=1956&endYear=2015&categories=RATE&dataType=RVR&geoLevel=US&adjusted=0&notAdjusted=1&errorData= 29

Source: U.S. Census Bureau U.S. Private New Multifamily ConstructionMarch 1993 through March 2016

https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/c30index.html30

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for Select Metros February 2016, 12-Month Percentage ChangeSource: Standard & Poors

http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shillerThe S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are calculated monthly using a three-month moving average. Index levels are published with a two-month lag and are released at 9 am EST on the last Tuesday of every month. Index performance is based on non-seasonally adjusted data.

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Source: The American Institute of ArchitectsArchitecture Billings IndexJanuary 2008 through April 2016

Most recent press release: http://www.aia.org/press/AIAB10886432

Nonresidential Construction Put-in-PlaceDecember 2006 through March 2016Source: U.S. Census Bureau

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National Nonresidential Construction Spending by Subsector March 2015 v. March 2016Source: U.S. Census Bureau

https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/c30index.html34

Offshore Investment Sale Volumes Reach New Heights in 2015Foreign Investment Increases 153.4 Percent in 2015 to $71.7bSource: Jones Lang LaSalle; Real Capital AnalyticsNote: Among transactions larger than $5.0 million

http://www.us.jll.com/united-states/en-us/research/6781/US-Investment-Outlook-Q4-2015-JLLForeign investment increases 153.4 percent in 2015 to $71.7b. Strong inbound investment across sectors leads to record year, more than doubling from 2014 with notable gains in the industrial and hotels sector.35

Top Markets for Foreign Office Investment, 2015Source: Jones Lang LaSalle; Real Capital Analytics

http://www.us.jll.com/united-states/en-us/research/6781/US-Investment-Outlook-Q4-2015-JLLDespite inbound volume gains, foreign activity remains concentrated in primary markets, accounting for over 90.0 percent of acquisitions in 2015. Four markets recorded over $1.0 billion of investment to foreign groups in the year: New York, Washington, DC, Boston and Seattle. These four markets made up over 51.0 percent of all inbound capital into the office sector, with very little of this capital making its way to suburban assets. In 2015, foreign investment into primary suburban assets decreased from 10.5 percent, on average, in 2013 and 2014 to 5.5 percent. While overshadowed by foreign activity in primary markets, secondary market investment doubled in 2014, from $442.1 million in 2013 to $801.4 million. In 2015, the increase was even more substantial, reaching $2.2 billion. The largest secondary markets for foreign activity were Miami, Atlanta and Denver. Miami was the most active secondary market destination for foreign capital, with seven transactions totaling $709.1 million. Of these markets, 89.4 percent was in suburban assets, differing significantly from profile of assets purchased by foreign groups in primary markets. 36

Inputs to Construction PPI (NSA)April 2001 April 2016Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

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Construction Materials PPI (NSA)12-month % Change as of April 2016Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Tomorrow Never Dies*1997: Pierce Brosnan; Michelle Yeoh; Teri Hatcher

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Sales Growth by Type of Business April 2015 v. April 2016*Source: U.S. Census Bureau*April 2016 advanced estimateTotal Retail Sales: +3.0% YOY

http://www.census.gov/retail/ Table 240

Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators IndexAugust 2007 through April 2016Source: Conference Board

*MUST START AT AUGUST 2007https://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

This month's release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision. For more information, please visit our website at:www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfmor contact us at:[email protected]

This month's release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. Also, with this benchmark revision, the base year of the composite indexes was changed to 2010 = 100 from 2004 = 100. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes.December Press Release:https://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/press/PressPDF_5370_1422007649.pdfhttps://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/press/TechnicalPDF_5370_1422007211.pdf

For more information, please visit our website at:www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfmor contact us [email protected]://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/press/PressPDF_5347_1418896809.pdf41

Dr. KnowNot a Happy New Year so far. Everyone knows about China and N. Korea, but we have problems right here;

Corporate profit margins are slipping and interest rates are on the rise does not sound like a great recipe for stock prices or for corporate investment;

Only the consumer is really contributing significantly to growth, with state and local government spending playing a supporting role;Job growth should remain decent in the near-term we ended 2015 with a near-record in total job openings and the number of job openings remains high, including in construction;

Much foreign money is flowing into America, and ultimately, that may prove to be the current recoverys undoing;

In fact, we may be transitioning very quickly from the mid-cycle stage of the recovery to the late-stage: 2017-18 outlook very murky.

*1962: Sean Connery; Ursula Andress

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Thank YouFollow us on Twitter @SagePolicyGroupYou can always reach me at [email protected] look for updates of information at www.sagepolicy.com.Also, if you need us in a hurry, we are at 410.522.7243 (410.522.SAGE)Please contact us when you require economic research & policy analysis.

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