angel ron: banco popular gs conference crisis junio 2010

14
Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference Focusing at home or abroad?” June 10 th 2010 Jacobo González-Robatto, Group CFO

Upload: banco-popular

Post on 15-May-2015

547 views

Category:

Economy & Finance


2 download

DESCRIPTION

Presentación elaborada por Banco Popular para dar a conocer las posibles estimaciones y previsiones con respecto al desarrollo futuro del negocio y los resultados financieros del Grupo Banco Popular, que se derivan de las expectativas del Grupo Banco Popular y que, por su propia naturaleza, están expuestas a factores, riesgos y las circunstancias que podrían afectar los resultados financieros de tal manera que podría no coincidir con dichas estimaciones y previsiones.

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Angel Ron: Banco Popular Gs conference Crisis Junio 2010

Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference

“Focusing at home or abroad?”

June 10th 2010

Jacobo González-Robatto, Group CFO

Page 2: Angel Ron: Banco Popular Gs conference Crisis Junio 2010

2

Disclaimer

This presentation has been prepared by Banco Popular solely for purposes of information. It may contain estimates and forecasts with respect to the future development of the business and to the financial results of the Banco Popular Group, which stem from the expectations of the Banco Popular Group and which, by their very nature, are exposed to factors, risks and circumstances that could affect the financial results in such a way that they might not coincide with such estimates and forecasts. These factors include, but are not restricted to, (i) changes in interest rates, exchange rates or any other financial variables, both on the domestic as well as on the international securities markets, (ii) the economic, political, social or regulatory situation, and (iii) competitive pressures. In the event that such factors or other similar factors were to cause the financial results to differ from the estimates and forecasts contained in this presentation, or were to bring about changes in the strategy of the Banco Popular Group, Banco Popular does not undertake to publicly revise the content of this presentation.

This presentation contains summarised information and may contain unaudited information. In no case shall its content constitute an offer, invitation or recommendation to subscribe or acquire any security whatsoever, nor is it intended to serve as a basis for any contract or commitment whatsoever.

Page 3: Angel Ron: Banco Popular Gs conference Crisis Junio 2010

1. Focusing at home or abroad?

2. Conclusions

Agenda

3

Page 4: Angel Ron: Banco Popular Gs conference Crisis Junio 2010

4

Banco Popular ranks 3rd amongst Banks in Spain. 5th, including Saving Banks and overall 4th by profits

• 2,380 branch network, 14,400 employees, 4.8% overall market share.

• €97bn total loans (over 50% mortgage guaranteed), €63bn customer deposits.

• 13bn AUMs. 32bn wholesale funding.

A pure retail and commercial bank whose revenue generation capacity outperforms peers.

Clear focus on SMEs (44% loan book) and individuals (30% loan book)

High margins, best in class efficiency and fortress capital are the main hallmarks of Popular.

This superior business model has proven successful in Spain for decades and we are successfully exporting it abroad i.e. to Portugal and Florida.

Banco Popular in a nutshell

Page 5: Angel Ron: Banco Popular Gs conference Crisis Junio 2010

5

Net Interest Income 2010e Efficiency ratio 2010e

RoNAV 2010e

Source: Analyst estimates

Spanish financial market: a good choice despite current headwinds

2,6% 2,5%2,1%

1,8%

1,2% 1,2%

SpanishBanks

UK Europe Italy Germany France

41,0%

57,0% 57,0% 59,0% 61,0%71,0%

SpanishBanks

Europe Italy UK France Germany

14,3%

10,0%8,8%

7,5% 7,3%5,8%

SpanishBanks

France Europe Italy Germany UK

Page 6: Angel Ron: Banco Popular Gs conference Crisis Junio 2010

400

2.400

4.400

6.400

8.400

dic-

95

dic-

96

dic-

97

dic-

98

dic-

99

dic-

00

dic-

01

dic-

02

dic-

03

dic-

04

dic-

05

dic-

06

dic-

07

dic-

08

dic-

09

Banks Saving Banks

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

dic-

95

dic-

96

dic-

97

dic-

98

dic-

99

dic-

00

dic-

01

dic-

02

dic-

03

dic-

04

dic-

05

dic-

06

dic-

07

dic-

08

dic-

09

Banks Saving Banks

Lending market share banks vs. cajas Branches market share banks vs. cajas

Business per branch banks vs. cajas

Saving banks (cajas) have grown massively over the last years in volumes but not in profitability

Net Profit market share banks vs. cajas

Source: BoS; Only Spanish operations , Lending market share over system6

60% 60% 55% 57% 60% 55% 64%75%

40% 40% 45% 43% 40% 45% 36%25%

1994 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2008 2009

Banks Saving Banks

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

sep-

95

sep-

97

sep-

99

sep-

01

sep-

03

sep-

05

sep-

07

sep-

09Banks Saving Banks

Page 7: Angel Ron: Banco Popular Gs conference Crisis Junio 2010

CaixaGalicia46,339

CaixaNova

31,737

CajaNavarra19,451

CaixaSabadell13,318

CaixaTerrassa12,889

CaixaManlleu2,642

CaixaCatalunya

63,649 CaixaTarragona

10,929

CaixaManresa

6,545

CajaEspaña25,253

CajaDuero21,385

CCM26,048

Caja Sol29,243

CajaGuadalajara

1,754Unicaja34,184

CajaJaen981

CajaSur

18,690

CAM75,532

Caja Murcia22,140

CajaGranada13,759

Sa Nostra14,114

CajaInsular

Canarias9,305

Merger (under development)

SIP (agreed)

Merger (agreed)

Merger (agreed)

SIP (under discussion)

SIP (under discussion)

Merger (agreed)

Merger (Under development)

SIP (agreed)

Merger (agreed)

CajaAstur

15,828

CajaCantabria

10,342

Caja Madrid191,904

CajaÁvila7,115

CajaCanarias15,909

CajaSegovia6,172

Caja Rioja3,813

CajaBurgos12,578

CaixaLaietana

9,191Caja

Círculo5,200 Caja

Badajoz4,250

La Caixa271,873

CaixaGirona7,815

SIP (agreed)

CajaExremadura

7,915 CaixaPenedés23,039

As a consequence, the restructuring of these saving banks is on the way

Until now, 37 out of 45 saving banks are in process of being restructured. According to the BoS, the projects consider reductions of the offices of 25%

on average and reductions of staff between 15%-18%.

Source: BoS, Company reports

7

Page 8: Angel Ron: Banco Popular Gs conference Crisis Junio 2010

Granada, Cordoba, Jaen: 106

Castilla la Mancha: 49

Madrid: 271

Girona: 74

Balearic Islands: 103

Barcelona: 125

Tarragona: 45

Lleida: 54

Malaga: 83

Almeria: 36

Canary Islands: 50Cadiz: 42

Huelva, Badajoz: 47

Sevilla: 100

Asturias: 38Coruña, Lugo: 46

Santiago, Orense: 58Vigo 54

Aragón, La Rioja: 50

Navarre: 62

Basque Country, Cantabria: 96

Salamanca, Ávila, Cáceres: 64

Valladolid, Palencia: 44

Leon, Zamora: 50

Burgos, Segovia, Soria: 40

Alicante: 78

Murcia: 51

Valencia, Castellon: 106

Our nationwide presence allow us to take advantage of all market opportunities…provided they are sound and sensible

8

Banco Popular Retail Network distribution

(Number of branches)

Total Branches Spain: 2,085 Total Staff Spain: 12,639

Page 9: Angel Ron: Banco Popular Gs conference Crisis Junio 2010

Santander banks market share BBVA banks market share Popular banks market share

Popular has shown in the past that “organic” is a not always a bad route to increase market share in a consolidation environment…

Note: Lending market share vs. banksSource: Company data; BoS 9

11%8%

1997 2009

Banco Popular

-300 b.p. -500 b.p. +300 b.p.

18%

27%

1997 2009

Argentaria BBVA Spain

14%

Bilbao + Vizcaya

17%

28%

1997 2009

Santander Santander Spain

14%

Central + Hispano

Page 10: Angel Ron: Banco Popular Gs conference Crisis Junio 2010

2.12%1.80%

2.15%

2.83%

Spanishpeers

SavingBanks

Eurosector

77%69% 67%

58%

SpanishBanks

SpanishSavingbanks

EuroSector

31%41%

46%

60%

SpanishBanks

SpanishSavingbanks

EuroSector

Loan to Assets

Cost to Income ratio

Pre-Provision profit over loans

Claims per volume

Efficiency

Quality of service

Profitability

Retail Franchise

As a consequence we are the leading retail and SME franchise

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

B 11

B 10

B 9

B 8

B 7

B 6

B 5

B 4

B 3

B 1

3rd quarter 08

4th quarter 08

10

Source: BoS; Latest available data

Page 11: Angel Ron: Banco Popular Gs conference Crisis Junio 2010

Pre-funded 1Q10

… enjoying an unique financial position

8.74%

7.75%

8.00%

Spanish peers Euro sector

2010 Maturities

Fortress capital

2010 M&L Term maturities & funding evolution

11

3,2733,601

1Q09 1Q10

14,32116,197

Second line of liquidity (EUR m)

(€, million)

103% 168%Coverage short term funding

1,000

2,601

1.1x pre-funded

Page 12: Angel Ron: Banco Popular Gs conference Crisis Junio 2010

1. Focusing at home or abroad?

2. Conclusions

Agenda

12

Page 13: Angel Ron: Banco Popular Gs conference Crisis Junio 2010

13

Conclusions

• Still cautious with the economic & markets situation: preserving

capital & reinforcing liquidity.

• This tough environment is leading to a huge re-structuring process

of the Spanish system.

• Popular has a “winner” business model and is the natural

beneficiary from a consolidation process.

• Network capillarity is the name of the game, as it gives institutions

the capacity to gain market share organically and extract potential

synergies

• Future growth should maintain the DNA of the group, at home or

abroad: SME and family focus, high margins, efficiency and

outstanding profitability.

Page 14: Angel Ron: Banco Popular Gs conference Crisis Junio 2010

14