andrew seybold wireless university

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©2012, All Rights Reserved

WHEN YOU WANT STRAIGHT ANSWERS

Wireless Intelligence: Consulting · Insight · Education

andrewseybold.com

1



May 7, 2012



Welcome and Introduction

Andrew M. Seybold




Thanks to Our Sponsors!

! Morning break sponsored by

! Lunch and Speaker sponsored by

! Afternoon break sponsored by

! Media sponsor

! Syllabus sponsored by

4




About Us

Sign up for Free on our website for one or more of these publications

Instructors

Andrew Seybold, CEO and Principal Consultant, Andrew Seybold, Inc.

Andy Seybold is one of the world’s leading authorities on technology and trends shaping the world of wirelessmobility. He is a respected analyst, consultant, commentator, author, and active participant in wireless industrytrade organizations. His views have influenced strategies and shaped initiatives for many of the world’s most

respected names in the wireless industry from Verizon to Nokia.

Mr. Seybold is widely known throughout the wireless communications industry for his keen perspective aswell as his track renerd for accurately predicting trends in mobile wireless technology and convergence. He is a

frequent speaker at leading industry events such as CES and CTIA shows, and at corporate events for companies including Verizon, Microsoft, Qualcomm, and others.

6




About Us

Barney Dewey, Partner, Andrew Seybold, Inc.

Barney Dewey joined Andrew Seybold, Inc. in 1997, bringing more than thirty years of experience in business

strategy, planning and executive management, consulting, and training for wireless services and products

(technology). Previously he held executive-level posts at Notable Technologies, Inc. where he established andimplemented the company’s wireless-based business direction, and at Calera Recognition Systems where he

brought new OCR technologies to market. Prior to Calera, he held positions at Apple Computer where he ledbusiness plan development, product strategy and planning for handheld device connectivity, and wireless and

multimedia services. Mr. Dewey began his career at Motorola, where he designed and implemented wirelesscommunications systems.

Robert O’Hara, Partner, Andrew Seybold, Inc.Robert O’Hara is a wireless industry veteran, with experience at companies including Motorola and Microsoft. He

has been involved in the mobile wireless data industry since it began, working with companies such as AT&TWireless and Qualcomm.

At Motorola, Mr. O’Hara worked on advanced technology projects on email, messaging, and the Android

platform. At Microsoft, he participated in the design of the Pocket PC, Smartphone, and related applicationssince the inception of Windows Mobile. Also at Microsoft in Cambridge, England, he was the Product Unit

Manager of the Microsoft Wireless Connectivity Group Europe. There he had overall responsibility for the designand development of Microsoft's microbrowser technology for cellular telephones, Microsoft Mobile Explorer.

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About Us

Robert C. Chapin, Partner, More than 35 years experience

With Bob’s past experiences in wireless publishing, marketing, data collection, and as an analyst, he brings

unparalleled knowledge in a variety of areas including end-user perceptions, marketing tactics, and both primary

and secondary research.

Robert J. Hirsh, Partner, More than 40 years experience

From his marketing experience with IBM to his work as a director at a large wireless provider, Bob’s expertise

includes product introduction, defining support requirements, and establishing partnerships and alliances.

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Morning Session:

Wireless Technology Introduction & Update

! Welcome and Introduction

! Wireless Broadband – Data technologies and speeds

– Voice today on 2G, 3G, tomorrow 4G

– Broadband congestion—the biggest wireless issue – Broadband congestion solutions

• More spectrum, more and smaller cell sites, in-building systems

! Break

! Role of Unlicensed Spectrum

– White space – Wi-Fi

– Bluetooth

– Near Field Communications (NFC)

! Interactive Q & A

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Afternoon Session

! Devices and Operating Systems – Smartphones, tablets/readers

– Netbooks/laptops/ultrabooks

– Operating systems/ecosystems

! Follow the Money: Panel Discussion

! Break

! What’s Driving the Need for More Bandwidth – More capabilities in tablets

– New devices

– The cloud

– Streaming video

! Commentary and Predictions

! Counterpoint

! Interactive Q & A

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Wireless Broadband

Andrew M. Seybold




Spectrum Is a Finite Resource

There is only so much spectrum available. No more can be made,we can only use it more efficiently

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U.S. Spectrum Allocations

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Spectrum Shortage

! Reports show broadband spectrum shortage looming

– Verizon may reach capacity on LTE network 2013/2014

– FCC reports wireless broadband growth soaring year over year

– Streaming video primary cited cause

! Some disagree

– Recent Citi Investments report claims shortage “made up” by networkoperators to justify more spectrum

– Citi says network operators should utilize all of their spectrum for LTE

! CTIA study shows U.S. spectrum allocations higher than mostcountries but…

– By 2013, U.S. will lag behind

14




FCC, NTIA: Different Spectrum

! Federal Communications Commission (FCC)

– Responsible for all commercial spectrum

• Licensed

• Unlicensed

• Committed to “finding” more spectrum for broadband services

! National Telecommunications and Information Administration(NTIA)

– Responsible for all spectrum assigned to federal government

– Advisor to Executive Branch

! Working together to clear additional spectrum

! Some communications systems operate on both NTIA, FCCspectrum on shared basis

! NTIA manages more spectrum than FCC!

! Spectrum management model must change

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Wireless Data Roadmap

1G 2G 3G 4G1990 2000 2007 2010+

AMPSvoice

GSMvoice, text, data

CDMAvoice, text, data

GSMvoice, text, data

CDMAvoice, text, data

LTEvoice, text, data

WiMAXvoice, text, data

AMPS terminated 2008Expect 2G / 3G data systems to terminate 2020 or sooner

TDMAvoice

AT&T, others

HSPA+data

AT&T, T-Mobile

AT&T, Verizon AT&T, T-Mobile AT&T, T-Mobile AT&T, Verizon

Verizon, Sprint Verizon, Sprint Sprint

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Data Technologies and Speeds

Andrew M. Seybold




Wireless Data Rates Over Time

! 1990s

– RAM Mobile Data (BlackBerry) 8.0 Kbps

– Motorola ARDIS 9.2 Kbps

– CDPD (Cellular Digital Packet Data) 19.2 Kbps

! Analog cellular dial-up (late 1980s-mid 1990s) 14.2 Kbps

! 2G cellular (GSM/CDMA) 20.0 Kbps! 2.5G cellular (EDGE/CDMA 1X) 100 Kbps

! 3G (UMTS/HSPA/CDMA EV-DO) 1 Mbps

! 4G (WiMAX/HSPA+) 3-5 Mbps

! 4G (LTE) 10-20 Mbps

– LTE speeds dependent on amount of spectrum

– LTE supports 1.4, 3, 5, 10, up to 20 MHz of spectrum

– The more spectrum used, the faster the data rate, more capacity

– U.S. 700 MHz spectrum allocations are 6X6,11X11 MHz

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LTE System Basics

! LTE designed to operate on different amounts of spectrum – 1.4, 2.5, 5, 10, 15, and 20 MHz (times 2)

– The more spectrum available, the better the data rates, the more

capacity on a per-cell-sector basis – Verizon building out 11X11 MHz (20 MHz total)

– Public safety now has 10X10 MHz (20 MHz total)

– AT&T has 5X5, 10X10 or more spectrum in most markets• Will have more with Qualcomm’s MediaFlo spectrum

! Cell sizes supported – 5 Km (3+ miles)

– Maximum 100 Km (62 miles)

– Network degradation beyond 30 Km (18.5 miles)

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LTE System Basics (cont.)

! LTE support for network performance

– Data rates up and down can be changed

– Quality of Service (QoS)

– Priority service levels

! Networks can be set for static configurations or parameters can be

changed based on demand! Frequency reuse for LTE is 1:1

– Interference is issue, networks have to be planned and designed carefully

! Networks will evolve using several types of cell sites – Macro sites—main sites with 3 sectors to cover major areas

– Micro-sites—smaller, used for fill-in where not practical to build macro sites – Pico sites—even smaller, again used for fill-in or to add capacity

– Femtocell and Distributed Antennas Systems (DAS) enhance in-buildingcoverage

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Broadband Speeds and Capacity

! Fallback

– Until LTE network footprints match existing 2G, 3G network footprints,users will fall back to 3G data upon leaving LTE coverage area

– Do not yet support moving from 3G back to LTE; user must end sessionand restart when back in LTE range

! Network capacity – The important capacity for users: a single cell sector

– Each cell divided into three 120-degree sectors

– Each sector has same data capacity

– Only one user within a cell sector, has access to total capacity,maximum speed

• Depending on how far from cell center

– Many users in same cell sector, must share available capacity, dataspeeds will vary

– Performance is fine for typical Internet activities, checking mail, etc.,

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All LTE Wireless Bandwidth Is Shared

! Bandwidth is shared – On sector basis

– Data speeds vary

• Close to cell center

• Mid-range in coverage

• Edge of cell

– Single user within a sector

• Gets all capacity and speed

– Multiple users share totalavailable bandwidth

– If multiple users arestreaming video, eachuser’s performance willdegrade

! Each Cell Site – Divided into 3 sectors

– Each sector has samecapacity

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Typical LTE Cell Site at 700 MHz

• Data speeds downto device, up fromdevice

• Speeds, capacityare per sector, 3Xfor site

• Capacity in eachsector shared by allusers in the sector

• Typical numbers,may vary system-to-system

•

3 data speeds todevices• 2 data speeds from

devices

Example for 20 MHz of Spectrum

25



Voice—Today on 2G, 3G, and 4G

Andrew M. Seybold




From Voice to Data

! Network Utilization

Time

Volume

Data

Voice

Expect voice todrop as it movesto data (VoIP, LTEVoice)

January 2011 minutes / monthText messages 671

Applications 667Voice calls 531

Source: Wireless Intelligence / Zokem Research

27




Questions

• How many of you have anLTE-capable phone?

• How many of you believe your voice calls are handled on theLTE network?

Not Today!28




Today’s Wireless Voice

! Carried over 2G, 3G networks

! 2G, 3G networks designed for voice; data was added later

! 2G, 3G voice services still circuit-switched voice

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LTE Architecture: A Complex Network

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Networks Want to Move to LTE

! LTE most spectrally efficient wireless technology to date

! Not enough spectrum to meet broadband demand

! FCC trying to “find” more spectrum to auction

! Network operators have multiple spectrum allocations – 850 MHz, 1900 MHz, 2.1 GHz, 700 MHz (LTE only)

! Network operators want to replace 2G, 3G systems with LTE toprovide more network capacity

! Will need to add voice to LTE – Standard is Voice over IP or in this case, VoLTE

! Metro PCS will offer VoLTE later this year

! Verizon in trials in several areas! AT&T advised its customers with 2G-only-capable phones toupgrade to 2G/3G phones

! No “sunset” for 2G, up to each operator

31




LTE Voice (VoLTE)

! Commercial operators moving toward

– Voice over IP (VoLTE) for telephone calls

– VoIP for Push-To-Talk (PTT)

! Then all voice and data will be mixed on LTE network

– VoLTE converts analog voice to digital packets, sends them over the

network with data packets, then reconverts to analog voice – Voice packets must have priority over data packets since they must be

delivered quickly and in sequence

! LTE supports Quality of Service, required for true Voice over IP

! VoIP used on networks today via Vonage, Skype, others

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Voice over LTE (VoLTE)

! MetroPCS promising VoLTE services by Q3 2012

– Running LTE in 5X5 MHz

– Supports CDMA 1X, CDMA EV-DO

– Wants to move more spectrum to LTE

! Verizon Wireless testing VoLTE

– Verizon will be retiring CDMA 1X (voice), then CDMA EV-DO

– Clears spectrum for LTE in 850, 1900 MHz

! Smaller companies claiming VoIP works over LTE today

– NOT based on industry standard

! VoLTE requires top priority of packet flow

! Quality of Service and Priority for packets important attributesrequired for VoLTE

! Operators’ goal is 100% LTE

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How It Works: Capacity

! Suburban cell towers typically 1-3 sectors

– GSM sector supports 7 simultaneous calls per channel

• Most sectors have multiple channels

– CDMA sector supports about 25 simultaneous calls

! Crowded areas require more cell sites

– Busy highways, sport stadiums! Indoor locations use many small cell sites

– Microcells / picocells / femtocells

! Same for data

– GSM 3G sector supports up to 2.5 Mbps

• New HSPA+ supports up to 7 Mbps

– LTE sector supports up to 35 Mbps

– Capacity shared by all users on the site!

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All Wireless Bandwidth Is Shared

! Bandwidth is shared – On a sector basis

– Data speeds vary

• Close to cell center

• Mid-range in coverage

• Edge of cell

– Single user within a sector

• Gets all capacity and speed

– Multiple users share totalavailable bandwidth

– If multiple users arestreaming video, eachuser’s performance willdegrade

! Each Cell Site – Divided into 3 sectors

– Each sector has samecapacity

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Broadband Congestion (cont.)

! Peak hour broadband congestion

– No peak hours for broadband data services

! Connections first-come, first-served

! Typical cell sector provides solid data speeds for most usersunless

– Some are streaming video up or down to their devices

! Can accommodate many more users per cell sector whensurfing the net, checking email, etc.

– Video streaming will limit number of users per cell sector

• Standard-definition movie will consume 1.5-2 Mbps of data

• HD can consume up to 5 Mbps or more per user ! Multicast (one to many video service) is NOT available today,may be in the future

39




Same Incident with 20 MHz of Spectrum

44




Network Congestion Conclusions

! Broadband network congestion is on cell-sector basis, notnecessarily across entire network

! Streaming video is capacity killer

! Capacity issues occur when too many users within same cellsector

! In emergencies

– If incident is local, capacity issues are local

– If incident is widespread, capacity issues are widespread

! Recent events

– Earthquake on East Coast (5.8)

• Cell networks stayed up but were over-crowded by demand for voice, text, AND data services

– Hurricane on East Coast

• Combination of too much demand and some cell sites damaged, out of service

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Broadband Congestion Solutions

Andrew M. Seybold




Addressing Broadband Congestion

! Ways to help manage broadband congestion

– Add more spectrum (if available) to each site

– Build more sites closer together

– Off-load main sites to smaller sites

– Off-load sites to Wi-Fi for in-building capacity and coverage

– Use Distributed Antenna Networks (DAS) in buildings – Limit amount of data consumed by a customer by

• Pricing plans, limit amount of data per customer per month

• Throttling heavy users, reducing their data speeds

• Time-of-delivery charges

– Smart antennas

! LTE is most efficient of all wireless broadband standards

– Push is on to move users to LTE and vacate 2G, 3G networks BUT thiswill take a long time to complete

49




Congestion Options (2)

! Off-load main sites to smaller sites – Fill in between macro sites with smaller microcells, picocells

– Easier to do, less capacity

– Interference issues need to be addressed for LTE

! Off-load sites to Wi-Fi for in-building

! Being done on worldwide basis

– AT&T, Verizon deploying rapidly

– T-Mobile leader, supports voice and data, devices switch automaticallybetween WAN and Wi-Fi

– Customer pays for Wi-Fi-to-network backhaul

– Wi-Fi access points must be integrated into network back-end

– ALL Wi-Fi access points not necessarily part of a given network

– Possible congestion issues with Wi-Fi in public places such as airports

– Data speeds dependent on backhaul speeds and capacity

• Access may not be as fast as when on the WAN

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Congestion Options (4)

! Smart Antennas – Smart antenna systems add capacity, data throughput

• Steer capacity to specified user within cell sector

– Expensive but important, not yet widely deployed

! Converting to LTE

– AT&T warned 2G-only phone users to upgrade ASAP – VoLTE will have to be proven viable

– LTE coverage must match today’s 2G/3G coverage before practical

• First in metro areas, move outward

– Ultimate goal to convert all 2G/3G spectrum to LTE use

– LTE will become faster, have more capacity

– LTE Advanced will provide even more capacity, speed

! Future: New ways of spectrum utilization may help

53




Wi-Fi Away from Home and Office

! In stores and shops – Many businesses supply good Wi-Fi connections

• McDonalds, Starbucks, Barnes & Noble offer unlimited free Wi-Fi

– Speed and capacity limited by single access point and backhaul

! AT&T offloads its 3G/4G network

79




New Wireless for Enterprises—

It All Comes Together

! Applications critical in field• Enterprise databases and applications needed everywhere

• Dashboards (up-to-the-minute operations performance monitoring)

! Devices easier to use with more functionally• Smartphones, tablets less expensive to deploy

• Ultrabooks, MacBook Air

! Networks, connectivity everywhere

– Wi-Fi version 802.11n

• Offers enterprises reliable campus mobility solutions

• Management and security solutions in place

– Cellular wireless broadband (3G/4G)

• Coverage, capacity improve• Trend to metered pricing concerning enterprises

85



Wireless Personal-Area Networks—ZigBee, Bluetooth, 60 GHz, NFC

Barney Dewey




Bluetooth

! Standard for exchanging data over short distances! Bluetooth managed by Bluetooth Special Interest Group

– 15,000+ member companies

! Initial standard has grown to 4 interconnected standards

93




Classic Bluetooth Applications

HEADSET PRINT TRANSFER

INPUTMUSICRange 10 meters

# Devices 8/ piconet

Frequency 2.45 GHz

Sleep Power 30µ AStandby Power 300µ A

Tx Power 800µ A max

Voice 3 per piconet

Data Rates 721/56 or 432/432

Bluetooth

96




Ultra Wide Band (UWB) Technology

! Technology overview – Data spread across huge amount of spectrum

– Any radio technology having bandwidth exceeding lesser of 500 MHz or 20% of center frequency (FCC definition)

– Unlicensed use in frequency range 3.1 to 10.6 GHz (FCC)

– Can also be used for radar and imaging

! Licensing of IP (Intellectual Property) conflicts have slowedapplications

! Wireless USB standardizedin September 2010

– Wireless replacement for

USB 2.0 standard (up 480 Mbit/s)

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Lunchtime Speaker

Lunch sponsored by:

108



Multiple Solutions Required to Meet The



110

Multiple Solutions Required to Meet TheData Demand Growth Challenge

§ Bring network closer

to the user—small

cells/HetNets

HETNETSBETTERTECHNIQUES

SPECTRUM OFFLOAD

§ More Spectrum—

leverage all

spectrum assets

§ Evolve 3G/4G and

leverage advanced

receivers

§ Make voice more

efficient to free up

resources for data

§ Smart Wi-Fi Offload

—leverage

unlicensed spectrum

topics for today’s talk



Circuit Voice Has A Long Life During The



112

Circuit Voice Has A Long Life During TheTransition to Richer, Carrier Grade VoIP

WCDMA+: Long life of HSPA+ means long life of WCDMA1X Advanced Commercial (1H 2012)

Fallback to 2G/3G voice (CSFB) used by most LTE operatorswhile the VoLTE ecosystem is being developed and expanded

Proven Circuit Voice: High Quality, Reliable, Ubiquitous1

1Thanks to soft handover, proven interoperability and 10+ years of 1X/WCDMA optimizations. OTT=Over-The-Top, voice just like any data service without Quality of Service

IMS VoIP: Rich Voice – Ubiquity vs. OTT VoIP

VoLTE Timing is Operator SpecificVoIP over HSPA+ Driven by VoLTE



2G/3G Provides LTE Voice Today



114

2G/3G Provides LTE Voice Today—And Future VoLTE Fallback

2G/3G Voice & EV-DO/HSPA+ DataVoice Continuity and Global Roaming

LTE (FDD or TDD)

VoLTE—IMS VoIP over LTE

Ccommercialization with SRVCC1 starting in 2013, maturing in 2015

2G/3G Provides Voice

CSFB1 to WCDMA, 1X or GSMvoice is commercial since 2011.

Today: Fallback to2G/3G for all

voice calls

VoLTE: Fallback1 to 2G/3G,or handover to VoHSPA+,

outside LTE coverage

1SRVCC: Single Radio Voice Call Continuity. CSFB: Circuit Switched Fallback.



116

1X Advanced Frees Up Spectrum for Data

CDMA2000 1X

1X Advanced

1.5x

Voice users xVoice users

Up to

4x Voice users

3x Voice users

Single

Antenna

Mobile

Rx Diversity

Same Voice Capacity in ~¼ of the Spectrum

1X AdvCDMA2000 1X EV-DO (or LTE)

Voice Voice Data

New device

Network upgrades

New device

New channel card

EVRCSingle RX

EVRC-BQLIC (device IC)

BTS IC + Adv. QLICRadio Link Enhancements



120

More Data Capacity at All Voice Loads

WCDMA+

Voice

WCDMA

Voice

VOICE LOAD

DOWNLINKDATA CAPACITY

(HSPA/HSPA+)

AVAILABLE DATA VS. VOICE IN A 5MHz CARRIER100%

Data

48 users

1.4x moredata

5x moredata

Assumptions: Single receive diversity and rake receiver assumed for voice, dual receive diversity assumed for data.

25 users0 users



LTE Advanced Range Expansion Further



128

g pImproves HetNets

Range ExpansionBETTER UTILIZATION OF SMALL CELLS

Picocell

Macro

+Picos

Macro

+Picos

Picocell

Macro

Only

Data Rate Improvement

Picocell

2.8X

1.4X

1X L T E R 8

L T E R 8

L T E A d v a n c e

d

w i t h R a n g e E x p a

n s i o n

Median downlink data rate1

Assumptions: 4 Picos added per macro and 33% of users dropped in clusters closer to picos (hotspots) : 10 MHz FDD, 2x2 MIMO, 25 users and 500m ISD. Advancedinterference management: enhanced time-domain adaptive resource partitioning, advanced receiver devices with enhanced RRM and RLM1Similar gain for the uplink



Mobile Platform Notes




Mobile Platform Notes

!Microsoft Windows Phone – Last chance for Microsoft, Nokia: 2011 market share in single digits

– Success tied to that of Windows 8 on PCs and tablets

– Microsoft will throw a lot of money at this

• Deal with Barnes & Noble only latest example

• Expect further announcements when Windows 8 launches

! RIM BlackBerry – Market share in significant decline; management turnover and turmoil

– Has never attracted consumers

– New phone is controversial

– BlackBerry 10 is new OS based on QNX

• No backward compatibility with BlackBerry 7• Winning developers will be a challenge

Mobile Device Notes




Mobile Device Notes

!HTC – Attempted to establish HTC as brand name

– US market share down from 2010

! Motorola

– Feature phone business shrinking

– Does Google really want to make phones?

! Samsung

– Now leading phone maker worldwide

– Not committed to one platform

– Creates multiple versions of same phone

– Expanding into tablets, music players



Application Market Share




Application Market Share

! Apple continues to lead

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Apple Google Microsoft RIM

Source: The Wall Street JournalTotal applications (including tablets) in 1000s

Observations and Predictions




Observations and Predictions

!Smartphones and tablets still dwarfed by feature phones! Game is not yet over

13%

87%

Smartphone

Feature phone

Source: Morgan Stanley

Total: 6.4 billion devices



Data Trending Up




g

!Global mobile data traffic grew 2.3-fold in 2011! Last year's mobile data traffic 8 times that of entire globalInternet in 2000

! Mobile video traffic 52%of traffic by end of 2011

!2011, 4G devices generated28 times more traffic than 3G

! 2011, each tablet generated3.4 times more traffic thanaverage smartphone

Mobile Data Traffic

161



H.R. 3630 Title VI




!Passed Congress February 17, 2012! Signed in to law February 22, 2012

! Quick Summary

– Requires FCC to allocate D Block spectrum to public safety

– Establishes First Responder Network Authority (FirstNet) to governPSBN

– Provides $7 billion to build out nationwide public safety broadbandnetwork

– Provides $135 million for state and local implementation grants

– Provides up to $300 million for research and development grants

– Provides $115 million for 9-1-1, NG 9-1-1 grants

– Requires public safety to give back T-Band (470-512 MHz) in 9 years—used heavily for narrowband voice in 13 major metro areas

165



DISH Network




! DISH also applied for waiver to use satellite spectrum for LTEterrestrial network

! DISH’s spectrum is 2 GHz and above, further from GPSspectrum

– GPS operates at 1215-1240 MHz

! FCC MUCH more cautious, carefully reviewing DISH waiver

– Likely FCC will grant waiver

! Why LightSquared and DISH are interested in LTE

– 700-MHz spectrum has only two major competitors, AT&T, Verizon

– FCC, Congress, others want more competition

– LightSquared, DISH want to build wholesale network, resell services

! Model has failed in the past!

172



Spectrum Auctions




! Three types of auctions coming

– Existing spectrum available for auction within next 3 years

– TV incentive auctions

– TV band repacking and auctions

! Existing spectrum—AWS-2, AWS-3 + 15 MHz

174

Incentive Auctions




! TV spectrum will be auctioned by “incentive”

! TV stations will be able to voluntarily give up 6-MHz channels,receive some auction proceeds

– Permitted to relocate to lower portion of TV band

! This auction will be a total failure!

– If a TV station on channel 48 in Boston elects to give up the spectrumand a channel 48 station in Philadelphia decides not to, the spectrum isnot worth much

– Unless each TV channel in top 20 is cleared on a nationwide basis therewill be patchwork of 6-MHz spectrum segments

– Will make it impossible to use for broadband wireless

! Once this auction fails, FCC will be able to re-farm TV spectrum

175



Predictions & Comments



How Many Networks




! Will they all survive?

! Example: San Francisco Bay Area

– 3.5 million people plus 15 million visitors (Convention Bureau stats)

– Today’s networks

• Wired: 2 (no fiber today)

• Wireless

– Nationwide: 4 – Regional: 4 (includes MVNOs)

• Total broadband providers: 10

! San Francisco in 5 years (as projected)

– Total networks: 17

• Wired: 3 (includes fiber)

• Wireless nationwide: 6 (includes Clearwire, DISH)

• Regional and WISPs: 8

! My bet is that they cannot ALL survive

179

T-Mobile’s Future




! T-Mobile spectrum-constrained in U.S.

– Has spectrum in 1900-MHz, AWS-1 bands

• 1900-MHz spectrum for GSM/GPRS/EDGE (2G, 2+G systems)

• AWS-1 spectrum where HSPA/HSPA+ is deployed

• Needs LTE to compete; where will it get spectrum?

– Additional AWS-1 in payment for collapse of AT&T merger

– Needs more spectrum soon, will deploy LTE

! Merger or acquisition

– Who has spectrum? Clearwire/Sprint/MetroPCS/Leap Wireless

– Who has money? Probably not Clearwire or Sprint

– For comparison purposes

• T-Mobile average 54 MHz per metro market

• AT&T average 91 MHz per metro market• Verizon average 91 MHz per market

• Combination Sprint Nextel, Clearwire more than 200 MHz per market

– (Sprint Nextel 53 MHz, Clearwire 150 MHz)

180



Google




! Wants Internet to become congested and slow

! Owns more dark fiber than any other U.S. company

! Goal is to build Googlenet

– Charge for high-speed premium access AND capture eyeballs

! Meanwhile, will invest in, partner in wireless and wirelesscompanies, show up at wireless auctions

! Wants every eyeball in the world focused on its ads

! Already infiltrated Executive Branch of government via CTO’soffice, won’t stop there

– Pulling strings on broadband activities in many places

– Can bet it has more up its sleeves coming at us!

! Believe Google will spin off Motorola Mobility without patents

– Motorola value will be significantly reduced

182



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Wireless Intelligence: Consulting · Insight · Education

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