andrew lindberg managing director and chief executive 28 th november 2001
TRANSCRIPT
Andrew LindbergManaging Director and Chief Executive28th November 2001
Overview
• Highlights of the year
• Financial Performance
• Business Drivers
• Strategy
• Challenges & Opportunities
• Outlook
• Questions
Highlights of the year
Highlights of the year
• Successful listing on the ASX in August
• Profit after-tax up 32% to $83.7m and EPS up 30% to 34.1c
• Retained Single Desk as sole exporter of Australian bulk wheat
• New performance based payment agreement with AWBI
• Loan book for harvest season peaked at $1.5 billion
• Six new storage facilities ready for this harvest
• Rail freight agreement with FreightCorp
• Pool wheat price at near record high
Financial Performance
Profit and Loss
$million 2001 2000 % Change
Revenue from ordinary activities 1956.8 1758.7 11.3
Cost of sales (1608.1) (1474.6) (9.1)
Depreciation and Amortisation (8.0) (5.6) (42.9)
Borrowing costs (95.9) (89.9) (6.7)
Other (122.2) (90.1) (35.6)
Operating profit before tax 122.6 98.5 24.5
Income tax expense (38.4) (34.8) (10.3)
Operating profit after tax 84.2 63.7 32.2
Outside equity interest (0.5) (0.4) (25.0)
Net profit 83.7 63.3 32.2
Cashflow
$million 2001
Operating profit before tax 122.6
Tax paid (44.1)
Depreciation & amortisation 8.0
Working capital changes (164.3)
Capital expenditure (44.6)
Dividends paid (87.0)
Decrease in loan book 103.4
Net new equity 92.3
Increase in debt (13.7)
Balance Sheet
$million 2001 2000
AssetsCash 62.6 4.5Receivables 1,523.8 1,604.5
Investments 127.7 36.8
Inventories 122.1 77.7Property, plant and equipment 105.5 60.6
Other 41.4 34.71,983.1 1,818.8
LiabilitiesPayables 126.2 109.8
Interest bearing liabilities 1,031.8 959.9
Provisions 18.2 70.8
Other 55.9 49.41,232.1 1,189.9
Net Assets 751.0 628.9
Financial Results – capital expenditure
Capital expenditure ($million) 2001 2000
Grain centres construction 35.8 11.5
Melbourne Port Terminal 0.1 18.5
System development 9.7 4.1
Other plant and equipment 12.5 1.7
Total 58.1 35.8
Depreciation 8.0 5.6
Business Operations
EBIT $million 2001 2000 %change
Pool Management Services 9.3 10.1 (7.9)
Grain Acquisition & Trading 68.6 29.0 136.5
Grain Technology (6.0) (3.8) (57.9)
Supply Chain & Other Invest. 15.6 4.5 246.7
87.5 39.8 119.8
Interest expense (21.1) (15.7) (34.4)
EBT 66.4 24.1 175.5
Finance & Risk Management 84.8 94.5 (10.3)
Corporate (28.6) (20.1) (42.3)
Operating profit before tax 122.6 98.5 24.5
Operating profit after tax 83.7 63.3 32.2
Business Operations
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
105
120
2000 PoolMgt
Services
GrainAcquisition& Trading
GrainTech
SupplyChain
& OtherInvest.
Finance& Risk
Mgt
Other(interest,
tax & corporate)
2001
$million
63.3 (0.8)
+39.6 (2.2)+11.1 (9.7)
(17.6)
83.7
Dividends and Earnings
2001 2000 %Change
Earnings per share 34.1c 26.2c 30.2
Return on average equity 12.8% 10.1% 26.7
Dividends per share 22c 22c -
NTA Backing per share $2.75 $2.60 5.8
Capital Expenditure 58.1m 35.8m 62.3
Shareholder’s Equity 751.0m 628.9m 19.4
Business Drivers
Business Drivers
• Australian wheat production (and AWB receivals)
• Global wheat supply and demand fundamentals
• Wheat price performance against benchmarks
• Trading volumes and margins
• Chartering volumes and margins
• Tonnage delivered to finance and risk products
• Supply chain volume and margins
• Interest margins
Strategy
Strategy
• Secure end user demand
• Sustain trading out-performance
• Increased grains under management
• Diversify revenue streams by offering products and services to
other growers and customers
• Increased revenue from the supply chain and other
investments
• Grain technology – plant breeding and seed end-point royalties
Four engines of growth
Grains under managementCore wheat business
Processing & branded products
Financial & risk management
AWB
2001
AWB
Future
Challenges & Opportunities
Challenges & Opportunities
• Grains industry consolidation and increased efficiency
• Increased competition in grain accumulation trading
• Competition for financial services with banks and other providers
• To reduce supply chain costs
• US / Afghanistan crisis – impact on Middle East markets
• Trade reform
Outlook
Outlook
• The company believes that the outlook is positive and that earnings growth for the 2001-2002 financial year will be positive.
• Our expectation is for a wheat crop this year of at least, if not better than last year’s crop of 21.2 million tonnes.
Questions
For more information contact:Michael ThomasHead of Investor RelationsPh: 9209 2064Email: [email protected]
Presentation Supplement
Contents
AWB
1. History of AWB
2. Ownership structure
3. Corporate structure
4. Involvement throughout the value chain
5. Risk allocation
6. Risk management process
7. Senior management
8. Offices throughout Australian wheat belt
Business Streams
9. Pool management services
10. Costs incurred by AWBI
11. Finance and risk management products
12. Finance and risk management products
13. Grain acquisition and trading
14. Grain technology
15. Supply chain and other investments
16. Major grain storage and handling providers
17. Major rail transport service providers
18. AWB new storage facilities
Contents
Global Wheat Industry19. Global grain trade
20. Global wheat consumption & production
21. Global wheat stocks and stock to use ratio
22. Global wheat production
23. Wheat production - major exporters
24. Top 5 wheat importing & exporting nations
25. Global wheat trade – 2000/01
26. Australian wheat production
27. AWB wheat exports
28. AWB wheat export destinations
29. Major Australian domestic wheat traders
30. AWB is one of the largest global wheat
managers
31. Pool price trend graph
Share Information32. Share Price v All Ords
33. Share Price v ASX / S&P 200
34. Share Price and Volume
35. Shareholder ranges
AWB
History of AWB
• 60 years experience in marketing Australian wheat
• In 1989, domestic market deregulated and Wheat Industry Fund established
• In 1998, AWB corporatised (formerly a statutory authority)
• In 1999, AWB privatised as a grower owned and controlled corporation
— Wheat Industry Fund converted to B class shares
— A class shares issued to wheat growers
— Government guarantee of AWB borrowings removed
• In 2001, AWB listed on the ASX
1
Ownership structure
A class shares
• Can only be owned by current wheat growers (currently 35,000)
• Non-transferrable
• Not entitled to receive any dividends
• Carry other rights including ability to control AWB through electing 7 Directors (a majority of the board)
B class shares
• Shares listed on the ASX
• Can be owned by any investor, subject to 10% ownership limit (currently 63,500)
• Entitled to receive dividends
• Entitled to elect 4 Directors over time
2
Corporate structure
AWB
Growers
Business services
Pool payments
Wheat deliveries
AWBIObjective to maximise net
pool returns to growers
Wheat Export Authority
Export markets
Wheat marketing
Monitor performance
of AWBI
3
Involvement throughout the value chain
Grain technology
Grain acquisition
Supply chain
Pool services
Chartering
Finance and risk mgt
Trading
Milling and Manufacturing
• Investment in R&D, plant breeding, seeds and technical services
• Commercial return on milling investments (15% IRR hurdle rate)
• Increase high margin contract acquisition products (cash, multi-varietal)
• Commercial return on investments in supply chain (15% IRR hurdle rate)
• Performance fee for pool management
• Performance fee from pool
• Harvest loans, RiskAssist and risk management products (Basis Pool)
• Provide strong trading margins
4
Risk allocation
National Pool Underwritten loans Principal trading
• Final net pool return
– final sale price
– foreign exchange
• Credit risk manage-ment outcomes
• Supply chain costs
Grower risk AWB risk
• Pool return falls below 80%
• Size of pool impacts revenue derived from products and services
• Incentive in pool management fee
• Margin on loans
• Underwriting fees
• Fees from basis contracts
• Principal positions
• Multi-varietal and fixed grade contracts
5
Risk management process
AWB Limited Board of Directors
Determine policy framework
Corporate Risk Board Committee
Oversees all strategies, their objectives and implementation on monthly or as need basis
Corporate Risk Review Committee
Executive Management review and approve risk management strategies on weekly basis
Corporate Risk Assessment
Independent group who quantify, analyse and report exposure
Operational Areas
Initiate individual hedging strategies
6
Senior management
Paul Ingleby (CFO)• Finance and Administration, Treasury, Trade Finance, Risk Management and
Compliance, Legal, Investor Relations and Financial Services• Former CFO of Elders Australia and experience in banking, merchant banking,
chartered accounting and government
Paul Ingleby (CFO)• Finance and Administration, Treasury, Trade Finance, Risk Management and
Compliance, Legal, Investor Relations and Financial Services• Former CFO of Elders Australia and experience in banking, merchant banking,
chartered accounting and government
Tim Goodacre (Group GM, Sales and Marketing)• Grain Acquisition, Grain Technology and International Sales and Marketing• Former executive in the Department of Agriculture Fisheries and Forestry
Tim Goodacre (Group GM, Sales and Marketing)• Grain Acquisition, Grain Technology and International Sales and Marketing• Former executive in the Department of Agriculture Fisheries and Forestry
Peter Geary (Group GM, Trading)• Domestic and Global Trading and Risk Management Products• 15 years previous experience in National Pool, Policy and Export Sales
Peter Geary (Group GM, Trading)• Domestic and Global Trading and Risk Management Products• 15 years previous experience in National Pool, Policy and Export Sales
Jill Gillingham (Chief Information Officer)• Information Systems and Supply Chain Management• Broad range of general management experience
Jill Gillingham (Chief Information Officer)• Information Systems and Supply Chain Management• Broad range of general management experience
Sarah Scales (GM, National Pool)• Management of National Pool• 8 years previous experience in pricing and risk management strategies
Sarah Scales (GM, National Pool)• Management of National Pool• 8 years previous experience in pricing and risk management strategies
7
Charles Stott (Group GM, Investments, Mergers & Acquisitions)• Responsible for Investments, Mergers and Acquisitions• Former positions with BHP and extensive international experience
Charles Stott (Group GM, Investments, Mergers & Acquisitions)• Responsible for Investments, Mergers and Acquisitions• Former positions with BHP and extensive international experience
About 500 employees with 30 offices
in Australia and overseas
Offices throughout Australian wheat belt8
Business Streams
Pool management services
• Primary role is to aggregate and internationally market pooled wheat on behalf of growers
• The national pool is operated by AWB International. AWB provides services to enable AWBI to operate the pool and in return receives payments for these services
• Approximately 15m tonnes of wheat managed representing 70% of total wheat production in Australia
• New performance-based fee model, which will reward (or penalise) AWB on a commercial basis:
aligns both the mandate of AWBI to maximise net National Pool Returns with the mandate of AWB, by creating incentive for investment and improvement in performance
consistent with that adopted by asset managers
designed to provide the appropriate incentives to AWB to achieve superior pool return out-performance while sharing the risks and costs associated with the National Pool
9
Costs incurred by AWBI
• Costs of approximately $58 million to operate the National Pool
• AWBI has no employees and therefore in order for it to carry
out its functions, it contracts various services from AWB.
Some of these key services are:
— Risk management services
— Grain acquisition services
— Logistics services
— Trading support
— Export credit advice and insurance
— Treasury services
— Marketing services
— Accounting and administrative services
10
Finance and risk management products
• Growers are exposed to a number of interrelated risks requiring co-ordinated working capital management and marketing / price risk management
• AWB provides limited recourse finance secured against a grower’s wheat delivery to an AWB managed pool
• The provision of risk management products (effectively derivatives that manage pool risk exposures and cash flows) that allow growers to tailor their risk exposure
11
Finance and risk management products
• AWB has a strong market position in the provision of price risk management and lending products to wheat growers
• AWB has a significant market share in agricultural lending, specifically in crop advances
In the $2.0bn Crop Loan segment, AWB is the largest participant with approximately 60% share of all outstanding crop loans
AWB’s share of all grain farm working capital is approximately 35%
Within the crop loan segment, AWB’s share is substantially higher than the next largest competitor
Crop Loan 61%
Overdraft/Business
Card
18%
Seasonal Loan*21%
Wheat and Grain Farms Only Working Capital Market by product type
Total Working Capital Debt = A$3.2bn (1999/2000)
* Loan against inputs or crop pre-harvest
$2.0bn
12
Grain acquisition and trading
• Provides growers with cash sales options before and during harvest
• Australian domestic trading – trading in deregulated domestic grain and non-wheat export markets
• Contract acquisition products – providing a range of pre-harvest contract products that provide growers with greater flexibility
13
Grain technology
• Primary role is the development of a proprietary position for
AWB in plant genetics and new cereal varieties
• 5 main areas: agrifood technology, AWB Seeds, Grain
Development, Quality Assurance, and AWB Research
• Provides technical services supporting AWB’s core business
activities
• Generates revenue through the provision of analytical testing
services and the development and sale of new seed varieties
14
Supply chain and other investments
• AWB has made a number of other investments in activities across the grain value chain that assist it in delivering its core product, including:
• Dimboola Grain Centre $11m (100% owned) completed for the 1999/00 harvest
• Melbourne Port Terminal $40m (50% owned joint venture with Melbourne Terminal Operations) operations officially commenced in Aug 2000
• Investment of $46m in new storage and handling sites in NSW and VIC. New storage facilities are aimed at reducing supply chain costs and delivering improved services and greater efficiencies to growers. Sites completed
• Investments in flour and feed milling $14m include: Five Star Flour Mills (Egypt) 30% shareholding, Vietnam flour mills (Vietnam) 17.5% shareholding and Shenzen Southseas Grain Industries (China) 8% shareholding
• Small investment in grain importing through AWB Zennoh, a joint venture commodity trading company established between AWB and Zennoh (Japans largest agricultural cooperative)
• Chartering business manages all aspects of AWB’s chartering operations in-house
15
Major grain storage & handling providers16
QLD: GrainCo
Established in 1991
Formed from a number of State owned grower co-operates and statutory authorities
Corporatised entity
NSW & VIC: GrainCorp
Privatised in 1992
Listed on the stock exchange in 1998
Merged with Vicgrain in 2000
Opening new sites in QLD, NSW & VIC
AWB Grain Centers
4 in Vic
3 in NSW
Total capacity = 1.3m tonnes
SA: Ausbulk
Incorporated in 1955
Owned by SA grain growers
Corporatised in 2000
WA: CBH
Established in 1933
Formed by WA Government
Cooperative structure
Owned by WA grain growers
NSW & VIC: ABA
Established in 1999
Joint venture company owned by GrainCo and Ausbulk
NSW & VIC: ATN Access
Major shareholder: Wisconsin Central Transportation Company.
Operates a 40 wagon contract train for AWB from NSW and Victorian sites into Port Kembla and Appleton Dock, Melbourne
Expected early 2002
Major rail transport service providers
QLD: QR
100% owned by the Queensland Government.
Hauls all AWB export task over 120 kms from port
NSW: FreightCorp
100% owned by the NSW Government.
The NSW Government has announced it will sell FreightCorp. The sale is expected to be finalised in Dec 2002.
Victoria: Freight Australia
Privatised in May 1999.
Owned by Rail America
Also operates a contract train for AWB from NSW silos into Port Kembla
17
WA / SA: ARG
Privatised late 2000
50% owned by Wesfarmers; and 50% owned by Genesee & Wyoming Inc
AWR (Aust. Western Railway)
ASR (Aust. Southern Railway)
AWB new storage facilities
4
65
3
21
4
65
3
21
1. Birchip
2. Charlton
3. Sea Lake
4. Bogan Gate
5. Stockinbingal
6. West Wyalong
7. Dimboola
18
7
VIC
NSW
Global Wheat Industry
Global grain trade
• Global grain trade is dominated by wheat
• Approximately 270 million tonnes traded
• Australia’s share of global grain trade:
— wheat 17%
— barley 21%
— pulses 26%
• Global grain trade has grown at an average of 1.4% pa over the last 20 years
• Oilseeds have been the fastest growing global traded grains over the last 20 years. Oilseed production has grown at an average of 20.3% pa over the last 20 years
• Most of the large grain importers are located in Asia, the Middle East or North Africa, which are AWB’s natural markets
• The management of grains is shifting from a commodity to an information intensive business driven by changes in grain acquisition, logistics and end use markets
19
400
450
500
550
600
650
1981
/82
1982
/83
1983
/84
1984
/85
1985
/86
1986
/87
1987
/88
1988
/89
1989
/90
1990
/91
1991
/92
1992
/93
1993
/94
1994
/95
1995
/96
1996
/97
1997
/98
1998
/99
1999
/00
2000
/01
Source: Economic Research Service, USDA March 2001
Global wheat consumption & production
mt
20
Consumption Production
Global wheat stocks and stocks to use ratio
Source: USDA Nov 2001
21
Global Stocks Global STU
020406080
100120140160180200
1993
/94
1994
/95
1995
/96
1996
/97
1997
/98
1998
/99
1999
/00
2000
/01
2001
/02
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35mt %
Global wheat production – 2000/01
Country / Region Tonnage (mt)Far East Asia 201.7
EU 104.0
CIS & Baltic States 62.3
USA 60.5
Middle East 32.5
Non – EU Europe 28.7
Canada 26.8
Australia 20.9
Argentina 16.4
North Africa 10.5
South America 7.5
Sub Sahara Africa 5.1
Total 576.9
Source: Nov forecast USDA
22
Wheat production – major exporters
Australia22.0
20.9
EU-1591.8
104.0
Argentina17.016.4
Canada20.726.8
Production 01/02Production 00/01(million tonnes)
United States53.360.5
USDANovember 2001
23
Top five wheat importing / exporting nations
01/0
2
Top importers Top exporters
RankCountry Volume
(mt)
Country Volume
(mt)
1 Iran 7.0 USA 28.0
2 Brazil 6.6 Australia 17.0
3 Egypt 6.3 Canada 15.3
4 Japan 5.8 Argentina 12.9
5 Algeria 5.0 EU 8.2
Source: USDA Nov 2001 Forecast
24
Global wheat trade - 2000/01
Argentina12%
USA26%
Other19%
Australia17%
Canada15%
EU11%
25
Source: USDA
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1981
/82
1982
/83
1983
/84
1984
/85
1985
/86
1986
/87
1987
/88
1988
/89
1989
/90
1990
/91
1991
/92
1992
/93
1993
/94
1994
/95
1995
/96
1996
/97
1997
/98
1998
/99
1999
/00
2000
/01
2001
/02(
e)0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Source: ABS and ABARE
Australian wheat production
Australian wheat production and yield over the last 20 years(wheat yield growth rate average of 2.3% pa)mt
26
Production Yield
%
AWB wheat exports
AWB exports around 75 - 80% of its total average wheat production
Annual wheat production is around 20 - 22 million tonnes
93%
88%
73%
55%
78%
27
AWB wheat export destinations
Region Tonnage (mt)Asia 7.0
Middle East 6.2
North Africa 1.4
Sub Sahara Africa 1.2
Pacific Markets 0.5
Europe 0.4
Other 0.3
Total 17.0
Source: USDA July – June 2001/02 forecast
28
Major Australian domestic wheat traders
Estimated market share
Source: USDA, company reports, AWB, interviews
29
Ausbulk12%
AWB 50%
OtherAustralianTraders
2%
GrainCo12%
OtherGlobal
Traders9%
Graincorp15%
AWB is one of the largest global wheat managers
Wheat management Traded Share
AWB 18mt 18%
Cargill / Continental 18mt 18%
Canadian Wheat Board 11mt 11%
ADM 8mt 8%
Louis Dreyfus 7mt 7%
Congara 5mt 5%
Bunge 2mt 2%
Xcan 1mt 1%
Others 30mt 30%
Total 100mt 100%
Estimates of wheat tonnes under management - 2000
Source: USDA, company reports, company interviews
30
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
310
Mar
92
Sep 92
Mar
93
Sep 93
Mar
94
Sep 94
Mar
95
Sep 95
Mar
96
Sep 96
Mar
97
Sep 97
Mar
98
Sep 98
Mar
99
Sep 99
Mar
00
Sep 00
Mar
01
Sep 01
Source: AWB
Pre and post harvest pool prices for Australian prime hard wheat (APH#1) over the last 10 years
$
Pool price trend graph31
Share Information
Share Price v All Ords32
2.502.702.903.103.303.503.703.904.104.30
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AWB Close All Ordinaries
Share Price v ASX / S&P 20033
2.502.702.903.103.303.503.703.904.104.30
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AWB Close S&P/ASX 200
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Share Price and volume34
0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.5003
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Volum
e (m)
Volume AWB Close
Shareholder ranges35
Range Holders Shares %
1 – 1000 30,245 10.8 4
1,001 – 5,000 19,821 48.8 18
5,001-10,000 6,776 48.3 18
10,001 – 100,000 6,473 132.0 48
100,001 - over 63 33.4 12
Total 63,378 273.3 100
Fully paid B class shares held at 31/10/01